Mini 578 - Mistery at Montescuro - Game Over!

[Macavenger]

Hi everybody.

Vote: Guardian

for making a couple weird posts in my newbie game. Scummier than anything I've seen anyone else here do!

[Macavenger]

Meh. Different reasons. In this case, it didn't seem like another random vote would be helpful. Sometimes I like to random vote on my second post instead of my first, get better reations that way. And sometimes you might not want to random vote at all, like if you don't want to leave something that someone might misinterpret as a breadcrumb, and if that was the only time you didn't random vote it would kind of stand out as unusual, which you don't want. So all in all I try to random vote about half the time, I guess.

Interesting, I might have to keep that in mind for future games. Hadn't really thought about it much yet.

Does anyone else find that "fair and balanced" vote count up there a little suspicious? No one coming up with 2 votes out of 10 cast strikes me as odd. We've either got some crazy luck here, or a couple people placing their votes carefully so as not to attract attention.

[Macavenger]

I think that's a fair assumption. Not that bandwagoning is a major accusation these days.

Correct, putting 2 or 3 votes on someone during the random phase in a game this size is usually pretty meaningless. The fact that it didn't happen by the time 10 votes had been cast makes me think at least a couple people near the end of the voting didn't want to deal with even the light question you just gave to Sensfan and Guardian. Being that afraid of questioning this early in the game seems a little odd.

[Macavenger]

I don't wish to answer at this time. My choice was not random, however.

It requires 4 more votes to lynch Fox. Use your votes wisely .

I'm starting to think I rather like my vote right where it is.

[Macavenger]

I don't wish to answer at this time. My choice was not random, however.

It requires 4 more votes to lynch Fox. Use your votes wisely .

I'm starting to think I rather like my vote right where it is.

Why?

I interpreted your statement that I quoted as mostly a joke, because of the . My response was similarly a joke, indicated by the .

In the event that you weren't joking, then I'm curious why your choice was not random, and exactly what "use your votes wisely" is supposed to mean.

In any event, I think my joke vote has outlived its usefulness.

Unvote.

Like Dasquian, I find Vampaneze's post 47 combined with his selective looking random vote the most interesting thing to investigate so far.

Vote: VampanezeHunter.

He looks like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight to me right now, which seems like a great reason to put him in it.

[Macavenger]

Then it would be Macavenger/Dasquian mainly because I still don't see the contradiction so if you could explain.

I believe my reasoning is a bit different from Dasquian's. I explained the bulk of it here:

He looks like he's trying to keep himself out of the spotlight to me right now, which seems like a great reason to put him in it.

Also I removed my vote because I have only just returned from leaving Mafiascum and have been recently playing Newbie games and it's only 4 to lynch.

This would make more sense if you hadn't also said it when you removed the vote. So, you obviously realized that this wasn't a newbie game, and that your vote was not causing any immediate danger of a lynch, but you quickly moved it anyway. Why?

[Macavenger]

Vote Yosarian

because he thinks everyone's crazy.

hi everyone!

FOS VampanezeHunter

for not falling for OMGUS trap and voting for Dasquian or Macavenger.

FOS Joudas

for talking weird. Watch for post game restriction.

(Italics mine)

This post is making me scratch my head.

You're FoSing someone for

not

OMGUS voting?

The overall character of it looks like something that belongs in the random vote stage, which we seem to mostly be past... The FoS's make no sense to me. I'm horribly confused.

Are you trying to breadcrumb that

you

have a post restriction with what I italicized there? I'm trying to come up with wild justifications for how this makes any sort of sense at this point.

FoS: Near

for warping my brain.

[Macavenger]

How would you respond if I told you that Adel did a study near the end of last year showing that in 200 or so random minis, day ones where scum were lynched were on average about a page shorter than day ones where town were lynched (8.5 as compared to 9.5)? What if I also told you that she said that day ones where the town eventually won were shorter than day ones where the town eventually lost, to an even greater extent, about 2.5 pages (7.5 as compared to 10)?

Do you engage in weird theory debates in every game? I know this wasn't directed at me, but I take this as evidence that poor play by scum results in faster lynches. I rather fail to see the point of bringing this up in a game, honestly; it seems better suited for MD.

[Macavenger]

1. Mac, you say that poor play by scum results in faster lynches.
   
2. That means that the scum playing comparatively worse than the town resulted in faster lynches.
   
3. That means that the town playing comparatively better than the scum resulted in faster lynches.
   
4. That means that good play by the town resulted in resulted in faster lynches.
   
5. That means that if the town played well, faster lynches occured.
   
6. That means that if the town plays well, faster lynches will occur.

Do you find the above faulty? If so, how?

I don't engage in theory debates every game.

Yes, I find it faulty. You're speaking about play of the town and scum relative to each other, whereas I am speaking of the quality of play of the scum in absolute terms. The mean day length is meaningless on its own in my opinion; there are related statistics required to paint a better picture. If this answer seems vague, see below.

And for future reference, don't answer questions directly addressed to others. That's a big no-no/scum-tell of mine.

mfos: Mac

. Anyone else who does the same, after my saying this, I'll find quite suspicious.

I agree in general, which is why I thought three times before doing it. In this case though, I actually want to kill this line of discussion off, because I don't like what you're doing with it.

FoS: Guardian

[Macavenger]

Mac, what do

you

think of my case on Foxy?

I think it's mildly weaker than my case on Vampaneze; worth a few questions and your own vote, but not exactly something worthy of trying to rally a full bandwagon over.

Which reminds me, since I don't really have much invested in my vote on VH right now...

Unvote; Vote: Guardian.

If what you're actually doing is scum hunting Guardian, I'd like to see some more persuasive results, or something that actually looks like scum hunting, soon. Right now it looks like random attempts to distract the town. I'm seeing merit in the play of a couple other players who are being obscure right now, but not yours.

[Macavenger]

Peculiar... what is worth rallying a full bandwagon over? What is the criterion for a case being worth one's own vote, but not being worth attempting to gain further support?

A 2 line suggestion of hypocrisy isn't worth bandwagoning. If you got a some kind of hugely scummy reaction from the accusation, that probably would be.

Why do you think your case on Phox does merit a bandwagon?

What does scum hunting look like? You say my play is obscure... does that make it scummy? Why do you say I attempting to distract the town?

Obscure play is not inherently bad. Yours, however, currently looks like trying to run the town in circles with inane theory questions, while making vague insinuations against lots of players. Asking lots of questions can be good scum hunting, but right now I feel like you're doing more twisting/distracting than looking for reactions. The discussion about length of days seems entirely pointless; you're leading in a direction so far from conventional wisdom that the discussion clearly belongs in the MD forum, not an active game. I can't see any purpose for making it in a game other than trying to make normal responses into scummy ones.

I haven't specifically demanded to know what you're doing yet because I know that if this is some kind of crazy scum hunting that I'm not experienced enough to recognize, revealing that would defeat the purpose. This needs to produce some tangible results or a better case than you have on Phox pretty soon though, or I'm going to start asking some pointed questions in that direction.

I'm currently quite suspicious of how hard you're pushing for votes on Phox. Multiple people have told you they don't find your case worth voting for, and you haven't produced any new accusations, but you're still fishing for more votes. Why?

[Macavenger]

Apologies in advance for the incoming text-wall; this game has been moving very quickly.

Would it have been more worthy of bandwagoning if I wrote a full paragraph?

Depends entirely on the content of the paragraph. In this case, most likely not, because I don't think there's enough of a case on Phox to fill a paragraph right now.

Hypocrisy and WIFOM aren't worth bandwagoning?

Depends on the severity. I'd say Vampaneze is every bit as guilty as Phox, if not more so (same end of the random phase 'offense,' moving his vote when a bandwagon built off it). In light of that, why would you be trying to bandwagon Phox over VH?

Vague insinuations? The only insinuation I see that I've made is that Phox should get more votes.

Partially, this is a tone thing, but:

I think it's mildly weaker than my case on Vampaneze; worth a few questions and your own vote, but not exactly something worthy of trying to rally a full bandwagon over.

Peculiar...

what is worth rallying a full bandwagon over?

(Italics mine)

This was the best concrete example I could find. You are questioning ordinary statements about reasons for actions in a way that seems to imply that they are scummy, when there's nothing scummy about them. It feels like you're trying to plant an impression of scumminess over ordinary statements, which I think qualifies as making insinuations.

Asking lots of questions can be good scum hunting, but right now I feel like you're doing more twisting/distracting than looking for reactions.

Justify this.

1. See above.
   
2. I get the distraction point from the fact that you are barraging so many questions at everyone right now that it seems people are having a difficult time fitting their own scumhunting in around reacting to your questions. You are dominating the thread. The majority of posts I see are either you or people reacting to you. This theory debate you started doesn't seem to be progressing the game at all. You appear to be trying to force people to react to you more than think about the game for themselves.
   

3. FoS: Near

   
   Failing to OMGUS is not scummy.

   Why doesn't Near's FOS count as 'one small instance'? Why is Near worthy of a bandwagon for one small instance, but Phox isn't?

   A great example of the twisting I'm talking about. He's not even voting Near, let alone asking for a bandwagon on him. You're either not paying attention here (which I find
   highly
   unlikely almost to the point of absurdity based on your other questions), or you're trying to twist his argument into something it isn't.

I'm not sure why what I'm doing looks

that

crazy; I'm trying to garner responses and reactions from players, and I'm trying to get people to justify their actions and opinions.

Based on my points about twisting and such, I feel you're fishing for certain types of reactions that benefit you, not honest reactions. This doesn't look like scumhunting, it looks like witchhunting, in the Salem Witch Trials style.

Happy with my vote on Guardian right now.

Explain. How can anyone think that my post was serious unless you were trying to look for a victim for your a bandwagon.

Well, I thought it was serious, because you actually did FOS him and gave a reason, and gave no signs of it being a hilarious gag. Saying it was a joke seems like a cop-out afterthought.

This. We had pretty well exited the random voting phase by the time you posted that. Since you gave no indication at the time that it was a joke, why would you expect anyone to assume that?

Furthermore, this wasn't posted until late on page 3. There was nothing more relevant you could have done then other than make joke FoS's? You still haven't contributed anything this game other than mocking people who took your post seriously, despite 4+ pages of content with some very interesting stuff from Guardian, as well as reactions to the same. Why don't you post about a couple players you find suspicious and why?

I see what you are classifying as WIFOM, but I don't really see it as being WIFOM. No, I don't think that that level of WIFOM is meritorious of my vote this early in the game. I find my lack of a vote (and FOS of you) a more useful state of affairs, yes. The lack of a vote because there's nobody I have any desire to lynch right now based on what we've seen, and the FOS because while what you're doing could be considered scum hunting (by pointing a lot of fingers and raising a lot of often-moot or frivilous points and gaging the reaction people have),

I don't like your methods, at least not at this point in the game. The way you're doing things puts people on edge

which makes them watch what they're saying much more closely. A better method, in my opinion, is to let the conversation flow early on, and start grinding down on folks once they've had a chance to incriminate themselves, not try to get them to incriminate themselves by grinding down on them.

(Italics mine for emphasis) I endorse this product or service.

As for the whole 'everyone voting different folks during the jokevote stage' ongoing discussion, in all honesty, I don't see this as being particularly scummy. Chances of anyone getting lynched because of one of those jokevotes are so slim it's not even worth mentioning. It could be a matter of someone not wanting to draw attention to themselves by ganging up, sure - but town or scum, who wants to draw attention to themselves? No one. Sure, scum would be more conscious of it, but this early in the game? This is a null tell.

I think it's a very mild scumtell. As you say, scum would be more concious of it. I pursued the issue with Vamp mainly because it was the biggest thing I had to go on at the time. Obviously I'm much more interested in the weird stuff Guardian has been doing now, as I'm getting much bigger scumvibes from that.



What do people think of the idea of a Guardian/Near/VampanezeHunter scumgroup? Vamp acts like he's trying to avoid attention, then disappears when he gets some anyway. (Bit early to accuse him of outright lurking yet.) Near has been acting oddly and not contributing. Guardian has, well, reread the first half of my post if you missed it for my thoughts on him. Guardian has also been slinging questions wildly, but has asked only one light question of Vamp, and none that I've seen of Near. Some of his questions could almost be interpreted as defending them, in fact. (Why is Vamp more vote worthy than Phox, and similar.)

Also, since I know some people like to make a big deal over this, no, I don't

know

there are 3 scum in the game. I'm making an educated guess based on the fact that this is a 12 player mini normal. Without introducing odd mechanics that require a theme game it seems most balanced; unless this is a mountainous game, which I doubt from the way people are acting.

[Macavenger]

I'll respond to Guardian's comments a bit later tonight when I have more time (going golfing with some friends in a few minutes here). A couple quick notes I do have time to make right now, though:

I think Phox's latest post is pretty townish. I do agree that 38 was a little bit off, but honestly that is so minor compared to what I'm seeing out of several other people right now that I'm pretty surprised Guardian is still pushing that angle (see his scum list 2 posts above mine, Phox is number 2). While his behavior has been worht commenting on, the case is so weak compared to what several other players have done I just don't see the point right now.

I'd also like to note in advance that, while I'm still very suspicious of Guardian, I am considering moving my vote to Near soon. Near has been posting

extensively

in several games over the last 19 hours, but hasn't posted in this one at all, despite a lot of content and several people asking him to. Honestly given his level of activity elsewhere on the site right now, I think an accusation of lurking is justified, on top of the previously mentioned odd entrance and lack of content. If Near doesn't post something useful very soon, I will likely be voting him.

Interested in seeing what Vamp has to say once he catches up.

[Macavenger]

Would it have been more worthy of bandwagoning if I wrote a full paragraph?

Depends entirely on the content of the paragraph. In this case, most likely not, because I don't think there's enough of a case on Phox to fill a paragraph right now.

Interesting.

Elaborate. What do you find interesting about that statement?

VH also merits bandwagoning. I'm more interested in Phox because I see him as about equally guilty, but there is much more resistance.

I think I can accept this answer; that will be partially based on your answer to one later, though.

Peculiar...

what is worth rallying a full bandwagon over?

(Italics mine)

This was the best concrete example I could find.

Me finding your logic peculiar is a vague insinuation of your scumminess? This is a reason to find me suspicious?

As I said, that was simply the example of it that stuck out the most to me. Your choice of the word peculiar there implies to me that you find my logic wrong somehow. Many of the questions you've asked come across that way to me. The fact that you seem to be doing this to a number of players is a reason to find you suspicious in my opinion, yes. I believe further discussion on this point here will just be duplicating general comments I intend to make at the end.

You are questioning ordinary statements about reasons for actions in a way that seems to imply that they are scummy, when there's nothing scummy about them. It feels like you're trying to plant an impression of scumminess over ordinary statements, which I think qualifies as making insinuations.

Positing this is true, why is this bad? Is being suspicious of everyone and trying to interpret everyone's actions in a scummy way indicative of me being scum?

You seem to be trying to force the interpretation that several players actions are scum. To me, that helps scum more than town, so I think this makes you more likely to be scum.

I get the distraction point from the fact that you are barraging so many questions at everyone right now that it seems people are having a difficult time fitting their own scumhunting in around reacting to your questions. You are dominating the thread. The majority of posts I see are either you or people reacting to you. This theory debate you started doesn't seem to be progressing the game at all.

I disagree strongly with the assertion that all, or even the majority, of what I've been talking about is theory. I also disagree strongly that my 'dominating the game' is at all indicative of me having anti-town motives.

More twisting. I never asserted that the majority of what you were talking about was theory, simply that I didn't think the theory discussion was helpful. The majority comment refers to the way you ere dominating.

I notice you seem to have stopped posting in this dominant/questioning style recently - why?

As for dominating being indicative of your motives, I think we both know you've said... other... things about that in the past. (Unfortunately I don't believe I can say more about this point without referencing an ongoing game, but Guardian should know what I'm talking about.)

What sort of reactions would benefit me that aren't honest reactions? Why would townies react in a non-honest way to my questions?

If you're scum, obviously getting townies to react to your questions in a scummy fashion would benefit you, as it makes it easier to lynch townies. Many of the subtle insinuations I've seen from you give me the impression that you are trying to get townies to react in such a fashion. The fact that you haven't asked any questions of this type to a couple of suspicious players also leads me to this view.

Happy with my vote on Guardian right now.

I assume you're serious now, as there is no smiley face?

Correct, although see also my comment on Near in my previous post. His lack of content/lurking is rapidly catching him up with you on my scumdar.

Some of [Guardian']s questions could almost be interpreted as defending [VH and Near], in fact. (Why is Vamp more vote worthy than Phox, and similar.)

The color blue could also be seen as orange if you're wearing funny glasses.

I'd have to dig up one of my old E&M textbooks to be sure, but I think based on the composition of light necessary ot produce the color orange, this actually isn't the case. Admitting that I'm right?

Have you considered the possibility that I'm trying to get reactions out of suspicious people that I

don't

see anyone else focusing on?

Now that you've suggested it, yes. I consider it more likely that you're trying to push weak cases against people that aren't your scumbuddies.


Basically, I'm getting a gut feeling from Guardian that he's trying to twist and distort town statements into scummy reactions. His posts just seem a little bit off to me. I've been able to pull up a few specific examples supporting my feeling, which I think makes pursuing it legitimate. He seems to be trying to cast suspicion everywhere, not just on legitimately suspicious people.

Guardian, your last post seems to imply that you're happy with Phox's response to you. Is this correct? Are you dropping your case on him for now? Why or why not?

I'd also like to see some elaboration of your suspicions about Pyro. I agree that he's been doing a bit of agreeing with people this game, but I'm also seeing original content from him when he does.

[Macavenger]

I think Joudas just jumped in and explained my problem with Guardian's posts better than I've been doing. The part where I disagree is in the likelihood of being scum because of the way Guardian is questioning.

It's just as easy for town to say something you could (mis?)interpret as scummy as it is for scum to do so, and it comes off as trying to find someone to latch onto, keeping the fingers pointing to avoid any fingers coming to rest on you.

This is the part that makes me think scum. Further, something in the way Guardian's questions are worded makes me think he's trying to pull that sort of reaction out of townies.

I'm still not really happy with Guardian's answers to me. However, after reading around for a bit I'm going to put my feelings about Guardian down to a major difference in writing style for the time being. Depending on future developments, I may come back to this later.

Unvote: Guardian; IGMEOY: Guardian.

The other half of the reasoning for that is I'm getting really frustrated with Near's silence. It's been over 2 days since he's posted in this game now, despite repeated calls for content. In the meantime, he's made 25 posts in other games. It's blatantly obvious at this point that he's willfully ignoring us here.

Vote: Near

That's L-2.
Near, post something useful, or die.

FoS: VampanezeHunter

for not following up with his thoughts yet, plus previously mentioned reasons.

[Macavenger]

First, I want to say that I was really joking.

My vote on you had very little to do with that post. It was mainly from the fact taht your play this game has been lurk, make a few posts with no content, lurk more. Which is useless at best, scum at worst.

Debating what to do now that Near's posted. Will most likely post again later today.

Mod: Prod VampanezeHunter also please?

[Macavenger]

I think I'm going to leave my vote on Near for the time being. I'm rather underwhelmed by the scum hunting in his most recent post. It's going to take a bit more contribution than that for me to move it.

Near, is there anything you think makes me look scummy other than this really tenuous "link" to Phox?

[Macavenger]

I feel like now is a good time to mention that it's been almost 3 days since Near's "oops I've been prodded here's some stuff" post, over 2 days since I asked him a direct question in response to that post, and he's yet to post here again. Meanwhile from his post history, he's posted 33 times in other games since the post here, 28 since my question for him. He just doesn't seem to want to post in this game unless he's been prodded.

This leads me to conclude that leaving my vote on him was the correct choice.

Repeating for Near's benefit:

Why do you think I'm scummy? Do you have any case other than the tenuous link you suggested between Phox and myself? Is there anyone besides myself and Phox that looks scummy to you?

[Macavenger]

LOL. You actually counted huh. I like the fact that you take this game seriously.

I don't like the fact that you aren't, especially compared to your other games.

[Macavenger]

with oblique defence

meaning you didn't take actions directly to defend him, but rather took actions that would defend him, without precisely "defending" him.

I vehemently disagree with this. Joudas and I were attacking Guardian at various points for what we saw as crap logic. Calling this scummy as a defense of the target of said crap logic is a terrible idea - it discourages townies from combating bad logic, which is something they need to be doing, as it is most commonly a tool of scum.

I've even stated at a couple points that I think Guardian has a possible point about Phox, I just think he tried to blow it way out of proportion, and called him on that.

If you think what Joudas and I said against Guardian was wrong, point out why, and call us scummy for that. Don't claim we're defending Phox and call it an indication of a scum group, when we're doing something townies should be doing.

FoS: Coron

I'd also like to hear why you think PyroDwarf is the scummiest out of the group you mentioned. I'm not really feeling the case against him just yet.

[Macavenger]

You list the people who had weird to just slightly off reactions to the early wagon as my possible scum? That was not really my attention, other than the three I said I found scummy that's not what I was saying.

Yup, JamesThePhox was mildly bandwagonned early, then there was an unexpected reaction by Joudus, Macavenger, pyrodwarf, and to a smaller degree singing librarian and Yos. For some reason a bunch of people jumped to his defense.

This looks a fair bit like you calling the five of us scummy to me. If I'm interpreting the rest of your argument correctly, you settled on a Pyro/Joudas/Phox scumgroup, but I don't think it's unreasonable at all to be classifying those five as people you listed as suspicious.

uhmm, okay. Sensfan, what does this mean?

I voted you because you had 2 votes already.

Why did you move your vote so quickly? It doen't make sence to me. why not just leave it on macavenger? Guardian, why the mystery?

I think SensFan is more suspicious than VH. It wasn't his vote on macavenger, that could pass as normal random stage voting. But why change it to JtP right after guardian? Guardian vote's change seemed to be a response to Macavenger's "even vote count" comment, as did SensFan's vote on Macavenger. But moving it to the person that another player just voted for? Why not have 2 players with 2 votes? I think I'll keep my rand. vote and pot a FoS on SensFan.

It looks to me as though you are undermining the people attacking JamesThePhox, and to me, that seems like a suspicious activity.

This is all pretty clearly scum hunting directed at Sensfan, especially when taken in the context of the rest of Pyro's posts. He even says he doesn't see anything wrong with Guardian moving his vote to JtP there.

I'm still not feeling the case on PyroDwarf. Right now it's looking like a case being drummed up by scum looking for an easy lynch. I'm not totally opposed to pressuring him a bit and wouldn't mind seeing some more content from him, but I still think he's most likely to be town at the moment.

Coron's attacks against people scumhunting and arguing against bad logic or theory are not sitting well at all.

HoS: Coron

with threat to vote if I don't see something different soon. I really wish I had two votes right now, as I don't want to unvote Near until I see something useful from him.

I'm also still suspicious of Guardian, both for previously mentioned reasons, as well as his immediate willingness to follow the replacement of a scummy player not sitting well. He's a very firm third behind Near and Coron at this time, though.

Looking forward to seeing Yosarian's and Phox's reactions to Coron, as well as the results of gorrilaz and librarian's rereads. Also very much need to see more content from Sensfan. In fact,

Mod: Please prod Sensfan.

He hasn't posted here since the 29th, and that was just a simple I'm here.

[Macavenger]

Seriously, I don't have much to say except the fact that looking at his vote history, he was trying to bandwagon from best lynch target to the next.

His only votes have been a random vote for me, and a vote for you when you followed up scummy posting with a massive lurk. I'd hardly call that bandwagon hopping.

On top of that, you're still contributing nothing to the discussion. There's been plenty to talk about.

Confirm Vote: Near

I'd like to see 6 votes on Near at this point; I'm curious to see what (if any) kind of claim/content we'd get from him at L-1. It's pretty obvious that's the only way we'll get him to post anything of substance.

[Macavenger]

I don't think anything of tossing a third vote on a player page 2 in a game this size, Pyro. It's very likely that was exactly what Sensfan said it was: trying to start some conversation. That's pretty much the entire point of the random voting phase as I understand it - get a few votes on someone to see how they react. Random pressure is all you have in the first page or two. I don't think there was anything wrong with his voting. I'm not happy with his lurking, obviously, but that's what prods and replacements are for.

Phox still strikes me as townish, but there's enough suspicion and reasons floating his way that it can't be all scumpowered (if it ever was). I'll probably try to do a careful reread focusing on him tomorrow.

[Macavenger]

Ok, I've reread again, with a specific eye towards Phox, and I'm still not seeing the case on him. Could someone who's suspicious of him currently lay out a comprehensive case or do a PbP on him or something?

Also after rereading, I feel like Dasquian has been sorta coasting somewhat - would like to see more content from him. Sensfan also definitely needs to start posting more. I can see reason for being very curt early Day 1, but certainly after 9 pages you must have some significant comments by now, Sensfan?

[Macavenger]

Hey guys, I've had an unexpectedly busy couple of days, and now I think I'm getting sick also. Not sure when I'll be able to catch up, hopefully by Friday or Saturday.

[Macavenger]

I've read through the last couple of pages a couple times now. Surprisingly little content to catch up on, actually.

I see Guardian's point on Dasquian - it's occurred to me several pages back - but I think he's once again blowing it way out of proportion. I'm also somewhat reassured by the higher amount of content in Dasquian's more recent posts.

I also understand what Coron said about the Near lynch not quite feeling right, to a certain extent. Paradoxically though, his recent increased posting has actually helped dispel that feeling in me. I'm more comfortable lynching him now than I was a couple days ago.

I still don't like Guardian's methods this game. He's moving back up my scum list somewhat.

Coron seems more townlike recently.

[Macavenger]

Why can't you just trust my motives and judgment?

Because we're playing Mafia.

I still don't like Guardian's methods this game. He's moving back up my scum list somewhat.

Why? Is focusing on players that have gone entirely unnoticed a bad thing? Is focusing on players that have gone entirely unnoticed -- and are likely scum -- a bad thing? Justify your statement. Why are my methods indicative of a pro-scum alignment?

I'm tired of playing your everyone-has-to-justify-everything-to-me game. Justify why your vote-hopping, immediately following the replacement of a player you agreed was scummy, and holier-than-thou attitude are indicative of a pro-town alignment.

[Macavenger]

You'd be surprised at how many games I'd finished and realized that we'd have won had the town just trusted me implicitly.

You'd also be surprised at the shockingly few times that doing so would have switched a town-win to a town loss;

You're the one who's been spouting off about how using meta is bad this game, mister.

I'm also totally confused by post 301. Despite seeing several things in it I shouldn't like (buddying with me, radical change of posting style, conclusion that duck = scum that I'm not sold on), I get hit with this overwhelming townvibe when I read it. Very confusing.

So you seem to think I made a slip here. Don't you think my saying this was too deliberate to be a slip?

Several people have already commented on this, but this is just so terrible it's worth bringing up again. It's like the opposite of the "too townie" fallacy: I'm so scummy I couldn't possibly be scum!

This was the point of my argument . That is, if I was deliberate and careful, this would be WIFOM which would nullify what Guardian said initially: "Had I cop'd dasquian, I'd have gotten a guilty result? Thanks for that tip ."

This seems to have been posted while I was writing the rest. So, you're claiming that you've made a WIFOM statement which somehow nullifies someone's argument now? Is there a reason this isn't a scummy crock of shit that I'm not seeing?

Yeah but, Mac has the significant difference that he's also been focusing on more

difficult to read targets, like me for example

. And then there's the fact that Mac's probably town, so, ya know, there goes that.

I thought the bolded part of your post makes you scummy. Can you guess why I thought so?

Difficult to read =/= scummy. In fact, difficult to read almost directly implies neutrality; if you can't read the person well they shouldn't be near the top or bottom of your scum list. It's not a good reason to lynch someone most of the time, better to pressure them and target them with investigative roles if any to try to read them better. Much as I disagree with some of Guardian's methods this game, he's certainly right that being opaque can be good for town if done in the right way. I'm feeling pretty neutral about Guardian currently, possibly with a slight scum leaning but moving back towards town. I go back and forth on him a lot this game though.

As a note about Guardian's investigative role tip though, while I agree with that based on what I've seen of Yosarian's reputation, I'd much rather being seeing investigative roles target Guardian tonight. Kinda have to wonder if that "tip" was to try to stop people from investigating him. Worried about what they might find Guardian?

I'm simply denying that I am a scum, which goes without saying. What did you mean by "if you lie in answering this question we'll have to lynch you"? What are you saying! Did you think, if I were a scum, I would fall for this trap? Anyway, even if I were a scum and Dasquian was my scum partner, I might even say Dasquian was my partner to make it look like he's not. This is wifom and won't provide any information even if I were to turn scum when lynched.

Talking about how you could WIFOM this stuff is different from actually doing it how?

So you're going to vote Near then, right? Given you think that there's a 68.3% chance I'm bussing him, it follows that you think we're both scum. Near has the bigger bandwagon.

Don't like this. I'm much happier with a Near lynch than a Dasquian lynch right now myself, but bandwagon size should not be a factor in determining your vote unless forced to make a lynch by deadline mechanics. At least, not for a townie.

++ to suspicion of Joudas, as he shows absolutely no consistency in who he thinks is scum, other than avoid the other people I think are scum, in the past like 3 days he called me and Guardian scum and then completely flip flopped into agreeing with Guardian and all this time leaving his vote on Near, even after his last post where he said it was scum's plan go get Near lynched. I mean, this is nonsensical.

Very much don't like this. Scumhunting on more targets than you think are scum is a very good thing, because chances are even the best townie isn't always going to be right about his first however many. There's nothing wrong with having multiple conflicting theories about who could be scum, as long as each theory is self-consistent. You can discard incorrect ones as alignments are revealed and continue pushing on the ones that still seem viable.

This is the second time I've seen Coron arguing that what I would consider normal scum hunting tactics are scummy, and I don't like it even a little bit, especially since he replaced someone who seemed to be trying to avoid attention.

Also, Joudas doesn't agree with Guardian. He comes to a similar conclusion as Guardian based on very different reasoning. Saying he agrees with Guardian could be suspicious twisting of what he's saying, in this context.

[Macavenger]

Honestly, at this point, I am wondering if you are actually thinking about what I am trying to say OR if you are just trying to make me look scummy in anyway possible.

-1. Guardian said: "I hate mafia, because I have to convince people of stuff I'm pretty sure about. Why can't you just trust my motives and judgment?"
0. I said: "I was like wow, guardian must be cop and he checked out dasquian N0. But then, this was a day start game. My first reaction was, wtf is guardian talking about."
1. Guardian said: "Had I cop'd dasquian, I'd have gotten a guilty result? Thanks for that tip "
2. He is implying that I am a scum, and Dasquian is my scum partner.
3. If 0 was deliberate and not a slip, then you cannot get 2 from 0 because it's wifom.

The point you're missing here is that, from what you've said here, there are two possibilities:

1) You slipped and are scum with Dasquian.
2) You're admitting to deliberately WIFOMing, which from everything I've seen in my admittedly limited time here, is usually considered scummy.

Can you see how this doesn't look good for you? In either alternative, your statements come out as scummy.

Hm so uh, you are denying that, if Dasquian is scum you are his scum partner? Remember, if you lie in answering this question we'll have to lynch you.

I'm simply denying that I am a scum, which goes without saying. What did you mean by "if you lie in answering this question we'll have to lynch you"? What are you saying! Did you think, if I were a scum, I would fall for this trap? Anyway, even if I were a scum and Dasquian was my scum partner, I might even say Dasquian was my partner to make it look like he's not. This is wifom and won't provide any information even if I were to turn scum when lynched.

Talking about how you could WIFOM this stuff is different from actually doing it how?

I was illustrating to Guardian why either answer to his question would lead to WIFOM.

I added Guardian's inital question to the quote chain here to help illustrate. Guardian's question looks mostly rhetorical/joking to me. There was really no reason for you to reply beyond "I'm simply denying I'm scum" if you were going to reply to it at all - honestly I wouldn't bother with that kind of question. When you then go on from there about how you could fall for the "trap" and WIFOM about Dasquian being your partner, when there's no reason for you to say any of that in the first place... you're actually WIFOMing about being scum with Dasquian as your partner.

My overall feeling from Macavenger's post: his main goal seems to be trying to make me look scummy no matter what I say. He doesn't seem to focus on what I am actually trying to say in my argument, instead he seems to be mainly concerned about how he can make my argument look scummy. It is true that a blind townie who absolutely convinced with himself that I am a scum can make this kind of arguments. But at this point, I am more inclined to think Macvaenger is a scum trying to lynch an easy target who has quite a bandwagon already.

Actually, I wasn't convinced you were scum until a couple posts ago. In any case, you're doing a fine job making yourself look scummy.

[Macavenger]

1) Re-read my post and tell me if you think I made a slip.
2) No. I am not admitting to deliberately WIFOMing. I am arguing what Guardian said was WIFOM.

Ok, I see what you're saying here now. For the record, the it in "then you cannot get 2 from 0 because it's WIFOM" points to the 0, not the 2, in the way I naturally read sentences.

This does nothing to change the fact that your argument against it being a slip was an atrocious example of WIFOM.

Now you are saying that you think Guardian was being sarcastic. This isn't what you said eailer. I didn't find Guardian's post to be rhetorical, that's why I explained either answer to his question would lead to WIFOM

Please quote where I have ever said I thought that specific question from Guardian was entirely serious.

The point is, you pretty much recognize that you can only hurt yourself by answering the question in any detail. You then proceed to go ahead and talk about how you could WIFOM about the question if you're scum. There's really no reason for you to do that if you're town, and saying "I could say xxxxxxx" is very close to just saying xxxxxxx. This looks strongly like trying to get a WIFOM link to Dasquian out there for us to find if you're lynched and turn up scum, without having to take responsibility for putting that WIFOM out there now.

I also feel like you trying to turn my argument around on me here is just a desperate attempt to get your own neck out of the noose.

[Macavenger]

Just to clarify: I don't really think Near actually made a slip there. I do think his reaction to the accusation of having made a slip is horrible and damning.

[Macavenger]

Welcome to the game, MBF.

I still think a JtP lynch would be better than a Near lynch.

Please explain why.

I'm interested in MBF's entry into the game here. I think the interplay between he and Guardian could be most instructive, and I intend to watch carefully.

I'm content with a Near lynch at this time.

[Macavenger]

Hey guys, I just noticed something.

Evilgorillaz is pulling a Near! Check his post history, he's got like 20 posts (I didn't count this time) in other games since his little one liner about how he'd rather lynch phox than Near, and the trend continues back past that.

I'm still heavily in favor of a Near lynch today, both because he's been actively scummy in his recent responses and because his lynch will give us far more information than hitting EG, but this is seriously not cool.

FoS: Evilgorillaz

Is this game just less cool than other ones you guys are in or something? Seriously, I don't get why we're having such a problem with people ignoring this game.


I'd also like to know more about an issue that I think has kinda gotten buried in all the excitement about Near and Dasquian lately. Guardian, what are your thoughts on PyroDwarf currently? How did he go from being a good lynch to not even on your radar a few days ago?

[Macavenger]

Where'd I saw he fell off my radar?

There is more than one player who would be a good day 1 lynch in this game.

You didn't, but you haven't talked about him at all in days. Out of sight, out of mind and stuff.

You still consider him a good lynch then?

[Macavenger]

Yeah, he would certainly not be a bad lynch. Evil wouldn't be bad too, I think I've mentioned this (right?). Near's had a lot of focus though, so that's good for reading tomorrow, and I'm very serious about long days being horrible for town.

You've mentioned suspicion of evil, never anything about lynching him.

I disagree with Pyro being a good lynch for today, though I'm willing to push for more information there on future days.

Very much agree about Near being informational as well as scummy.

Also, while I disagree with long days being bad for town to a point, there are definitely diminishing returns, which we're very much into at this point, hence my desire for Near to be lynched soon.

If long days are bad for town, why did you bring up the Dasquian thing and push for his lynch? Discussing that has used up a couple pages, and surely you didn't honestly think everyone would instantly agree with you and quicklynch him. Why not just mention the point as something to look into tomorrow, as I did with EG here?

[Macavenger]

and what is that makes you so sure that I would be buddies with near?

He's telling you, in his special Guardian way, that jumping on the biggest bandwagon for no real reason is considered scummy. Also probably one of those mistakes you mentioned.

could I not simply be operating in survival instincts logic?

Trying to eliminate the weakest player?

See, trying to eliminate the weakest player is something scum would be doing. We're trying to eliminate the scummiest players, not the weakest ones.

Generally you don't want to be voting people without good reasons for why you think they might be mafia, unless it's the beginning of the game and you have nothing to go on. The best way to get people to be less suspicious of you and unvote you is generally to try to help us figure out who the scum are. Say who you find suspicious and why, ask lots of questions, ask more questions based on the answers you get. Look for inconsistencies and things that benefit mafia more than town.

Personally, I'm willing to give you the benefit of the doubt for now - I honestly didn't find the person you're replacing overly scummy, and what you've said since hopping in here sounds like new player more than scum to me - but I'd get ready to answer some questions about that, and start trying to figure out who you think is mafia, and why. People are going to want to know.

[Macavenger]

Macavenger, I was trying to give DBE some advice, don't confuse her. I really think busing there was a poor tactic.

I disagree, busing would be a great tactic there. It would get Near lynched faster, which is good. The trick is to do it in a way that doesn't tip us off that she's scums too.

I still want to call you Mav btw .

You're the first person who's ever wanted to do that in the, um, gonna say something like 8, 9 years now? that I've been using this name in various places. I will probably never understand that.

[Macavenger]

Huh?
Seems like someone just wanted to joke post, I don't see anything wrong with it.

Curious response considering you recently expressed desire to lynch the player she replaced. Or is that no good anymore now that he's been replaced by someone actually posting? Interested in actually answering any of the questions I've been asking you, or just posting more useless one liners?

[Macavenger]

well I find the duck very scummy

Ok. Why?

but atm after reading a bit more I am going to

Vote: Macavenger

, I find it fishy you are so on top of things, and yet have no votes thus far, seems like a thing a very skilled scummy would do.

I would guess, that as 3 of the people voting for near have no votes themselves, that this could be a very suspicious scummy clue.

I can only assume Librarian or Joudas could be your scum buddies

I happen to have more free time than a majority of posters on this site currently, so I check it a fair amount.

As for the rest of your thoughts about myself and possible buddies on the Near wagon, I'd suggest reading the Too Townie article on the wiki. If any of us have done anything you find overtly suspicious, please, by all means point it out.

I try not to lynch someone who just replaced into a game, nor do I feel like posting huge blobs of text. Yes, I have expressed interest in lynching her predecessor, but to judge a player based upon who they replaced is a bit unfair.
Oh and for your questions:
1. Not anymore, JtP was replaced.
2. I post when I get to it.

Posting frequent big blobs of text is not required to post meaningful content. Yosarian hasn't been posting particularly frequently or in large blobs, but I consider him to be generally a helpful contributor this game. You've been posting one liners about suspecting certain people without much in the way of reasoning and voting a touch erratically.

Your logic for not suspecting DBE is poor. The fact that JtP was replaced does not mean his role changed - DBE has exactly the same role he did. She can't really explain the thought process behind his actions, but if you suspected him when he left, you should be suspecting his replacement. Scummy play does not turn into bad play just because the person is replaced. If DBE proves to be a helpful contributor, then modifying your opinion would make sense, but until you have significant content from the new person to judge, your opinion on them should be the same as your opinion on the person they replaced.

2) Non-committal scum-hunting can be a scum-tell. It could also be a sign of townie who doesn't have good idea who the scums are. Like I said before, I can try to fabricate an accusation on someone to try to make that person look scummy. Doing so can possibly make me look less scummy, but it conflicts with my top objective of finding the actual scums.

If you're town and don't have much idea who the scum are, you should be asking lots of questions looking for reactions that give you an idea.

3) My joke FOS was a case of WIFOM? HOW?

I believe Dasquian is referring to your defense of calling it a joke here. It could have been a joke... or it could have been distancing that you wanted us to think was a joke.

If you're going to make jokes past the random stage, you should be indicating it somehow when we make them. Remember that text doesn't convey humor nearly as well as speech.

Secondly, my defense that scums are not as likely to be put at L-2, which requires 5 total votes, is not WIFOM. It's not the strongest defense, but townies are more likely to be put at L-2 for lurking than a scum.

You could be a townie getting run up by scums. But what if you're also scum getting bussed? See the WIFOM? Why don't you analyze everyone's reasons for getting on your wagon and tell us which ones are the scums?

And my reaction to potential cop investigation? Again, I was not using WIFOM to defend myself. I was pointing out that either answer to Guardian's question would result in WIFOM.

Your first reaction to the accusation of the slip was this:

So you seem to think I made a slip here. Don't you think my saying this was too deliberate to be a slip?

As several people have pointed out, this is not only WIFOM, but a particularly bad example of it as well.

hm. evil may be town. post 377 has one of my favorite newbie town tells.

I hope this wasn't just for my benefit regarding you know what. The thought did cross my mind, and while 377 itself has nothing bad in it, I'm still pretty suspicious of the rest of his posting prior to that.

I'd be interested to hear what some of the other experienced players in this game think of "Let's not suspect the replacement because thir predecessor was scummy" as a newbie town tell.

[Macavenger]

Mac and Guardian seem to have a little inside joke... intriguing,

why would he mention something for your benefit, Mac, unless, he was infact your scum buddy sending you a message that we would not pick up on?

We're in another game together. If you want to search my posts, you can probably figure out what I'm talking about, but I can't really say it because the game is ongoing.

[Macavenger]

Mac's post bothers me

greatly

. Why? He asks if I am applying my newbie town tell (that town newbies often use the faulty logic that attacking replacements is "unfair") for consistency's sake to appear like I use it as town always, in this game and the other; he may or may not know I'm town in the other game, but for me to be doing it for consistency's sake, it implies strongly that Mac knows I am town in this game.

For it to look good and consistent as comparing this game to the other, that would mean that there'd have to be little possibility of me being scum here. Granted, I'm not scum here, but how does *Mac* know this, as to compare my play to another game?

Mac, what do you have to say for yourself?

I don't think there's much I can say without skating dangerously close to referencing our other game.

From the viewpoint I'm coming at this from though, your alignment this game has no real bearing on the use of that tell here. I question the validity of the tell itself. Maybe I just need to make a thread in MD asking for opinions on it.

I'm also somewhat suspicious over you attacking me over something you know I am restricted about conveying my thoughts on.

[Macavenger]

I second Dasquain's motion,

You should probably be voting for Near then. By supporting Dasquian's motion, you're supporting Near's bandwagon but not voting for him, which is generally considered a scum tactic.

I also agree with Dasquian here, which should be obvious based on the way I've been calling for Near to be lynched for a while now.

Agree with Joudas that Darla's mistakes look more like "new player" than "scum" to me. It's certainly something to keep in mind, but Near is a far better lynch today.

[Macavenger]

Looking over the deadline rules, Near is the only bandwagon I'm willing to support currently. It's four to lynch at deadline, and it seems like Dasquian, Joudas, Librarian and I are all pretty committed to seeing Near strung up, so I don't think we're going to have any no lynch issues, which is the only thing that would make me even consider any of these other wagons right now. Obviously I won't support my own, I don't think Dasquian is likely to be scum, and DBE's play reads newbie far more than scum. Not saying she's confirmed innocent by any means, but she's a bad Day 1 lynch unless there's no other decent target, which there is. I'd rather vote for Coron, MBF, EG, or Guardian than DBE currently, in roughly that order. None of them have wagons currently though, so they're more suspects for tomorrow for me at this point.

[Macavenger]

Guardian, I've never found you very on the town side of neutral this game. That one specific post for some reason I can't explain looked very townish to me. That's an abberation compared to most of your posts this game, and shouldn't be mistaken for my overall stance on you. It's true that I swing back and forth on you a ton - I find you exceptionally difficult to read this game. Right now you're very slightly on the scum side of neutral, for the record, but it changes with almost every post you make.

[Macavenger]

and DBE's play reads newbie far more than scum.

it's looked newbie, but scum newbie more likely, and you also appear to ignore anything done my DBE's replacee, which I think is a foolish move, as much as it sucks to get attack because your replacee was scummy, it's how the game works.

I already had this argument with evilgorrilaz earlier. I fully agree that you should be suspecting replacements based on the replacee. I'm not holding that against DBE myself because I was never sold on Phox's scumminess while he was still playing. So I'm not ignoring anything Phox did, he just didn't set off any major alarm bells for me.

Why not throw Yos and pyrodwarf in there too! Then you could have all 7 people not voting for near as your top 7 suspects!

Because who's voting for Near has basically nothing to do with my suspicions, and those 2 seem fairly likely to be town to me.

[Macavenger]

Noting for deadline reasons that I would possibly be willing to support a Coron wagon over Near's, depending on developments. This is largely independent of this SK thing, he was already a top suspect before that, although I agree that if he doesn't produce a better explanation here soon this looks really bad.

[Macavenger]

And Coron posts while I'm typing. Meh on that reaction. Even if you don't have specific tells Coron, you've obviously seen some general tendencies or something - point a couple things out.

[Macavenger]

I *did* point something out.

Also, it helps that he doesn't look like he'd be scum with the people I think are the mafias.

I meant point out something specific from this game here, which you somewhat did in this post.

[Macavenger]

Very surprised by the massive explosion of talking yesterday. Even more surprised by how little I have to add to it at this point.

I can't conceive of any reason for Coron to claim at that point, and as such am very suspicious of the claim. MBF's explanation makes the most sense of any that I've come up with (not that it makes much sense, very little about that claim does), so I'm sticking with my vote for now. If Coron does accumulate a large enough wagon to potentially deadline lynch, I'd be more likely to switch to it than before, I think.

[Macavenger]

Deadline is a little under 15 hours from this post, if I'm calculating the time zone differences right? If so, I should be around at most an hour before deadline to react to anything that happens, and possibly right up to it.

I don't really like the way Near says he needs to come up with a convincing accusation at the moment. Nonetheless I am getting a bit less sold on my ideas that Near is obvscum and Darla is newbie not-scum. Darla's posts recently have seemed less newbie to me, but still scummy.

I really don't think there were many if any scum on Near's wagon for most of the day, but the idea that scum could be sitting back and watching aggressive townies lynch another townie who made a mistake has occurred to me.

Near, I don't think you need to come up with a case on someone exactly - it would be more beneficial to just post your thoughts on everyone currently, in as much detail as you can manage on short notice. It would give us something to go on now, and in the event that you are town and lynched, it gives us a record from someone who's motives are confirmed to study.

[Macavenger]

Near is still at six since Dasquian unvoted, right?

I'm interested to hear the remainder of Darla's claim, but I agree with Guardian it should not happen until after the end of this day, unless she gets much closer to a lynch than she is now. I also don't think that was really a very good time to claim that you have a power, Darla.

[Macavenger]

I'd like to give Near another chance to talk. There's no reason to hammer him when he's going to die in 10 hours anyway if no one does anything.

[Macavenger]

Err, Dasquian is voting for DBE right now, unless I'm horribly missing something.

[Macavenger]

Unofficial vote count I put together mainly for my own purposes:

Near (4): SL, Mac, Joudas, DBE
DBE (3): Yos, Coron, Duck
Duck (2): Near, Guardian
Guardian (1): PyroDwarf
Coron (1): MBF
Not voting: EG

I like the idea of competing bandwagons being setup to Near's since the town as a whole seems to be souring somewhat on his lynch. As long as we don't get into a situation where a deadline No Lynch could occur, I actually find this healthy behavior as it increases our options somewhat.

I'm going to try to get in as much of a reread as I can before deadline, focusing on Near and a couple other suspects. I should be awake until very close to if not at the deadline, and may not have a finalized vote until then.

[Macavenger]

Near, explain why you think Dasquian is scummy? I was rereading your posts, and I see a hop from "I don't think Dasquian is scum" pretty quickly into "I see a Dasquian/Mac scumpair" into "Hey guys let's kill the duck not me" and not a lot of reasoning in there. There could be a bit there, I'm speedreading so may be missing stuff, but if you could put your reasoning up again it would help.

[Macavenger]

Is anyone else besides Guardian interested in lynching Coron currently? I'm still reading around, but if there's a sizable enough wagon on him, I'd strongly consider it. We'd need minimum one more than myself, Guardian, and MBF, though.

[Macavenger]

Guardian, vote Coron if you really want him lynched. It can't hurt anything at this point. Near's wagon is still 4 with or without you, we won't no lynch. Near could also potentially move to Coron giving me a deadline choice between the two of them. Sucks badly for me if I pick wrong, but options are better than not.

[Macavenger]

I'm sure Near would prefer Coron to near.

so...

That was my initial thought too, although there may be a small chance he wouldn't make that decision, in specific circumstances.

I realize you prefer Duck to Coron, but I'm rather opposed to lynching Duck currently. I really doubt you're going to find the votes for that.

I'm still not really sure if I prefer a Coron lynch to a Near lynch, but at least if there are 3 other votes in place for each, I have 3 hours to make a meaningful decision on the matter.

[Macavenger]

Near, when you get back, you need to be giving me as much information as possible here. Your life may depend on it regardless of your alignment, and if you are town, you want to get as much out as possible for when you're death confirmed, if it comes to that.

It's pretty much between you and Coron at the moment. You're going to have to vote for Coron if you want to give me a real choice here. I'm rereading through a ton of stuff now, but ultimately I'm pretty sure my decision is going to depend on what I hear from you.

[Macavenger]

Generally if people are tied at deadline, whoever has been there longer is lynched.

The situation I alluded to above where Near is unwillingot vote Coron has arisen. So now, I have a new choice. DBE is at three votes. I can keep my vote on Near and lynch him, or switch and cause DBE to be lynched.

I deliberately didn't mention this earlier as a sort of test for Near. Since Near refuses to vote for Coron, this means one of three things, ordered roughly in order of estimated likelyhood:
1) Near is really town, and believes Coron's claim.
2) Near is scum with Coron, and presumably Coron has some kind of power or somethign Near wants to protect.
3) Near is scum gambitting like crazy.

Option three seems so ridiculously unlikely that I can pretty much rule it out, considering I gave no indication I was willing to consider a DBE lynch.

[Macavenger]

Lynching Near is kind of good, since if we hit scum there we can be almost certain we'll also hit scum on Coron. But I think he's more likely to be town. I don't really want to lynch DBE that much either though...

adhjflakdjflk. asdf. Why did I volunteer to be a decisionmaker here.

[Macavenger]

Guardian go to bed you crazy freak, it's got to be 2am where you are. Staying up that late in college isn't any good, I should know; I did it way too much.

[Macavenger]

I never actually decided for certain whether I was willing to lynch Coron. Actually right now I'm uncomfortable with how hard Guardian is pushing for it. I really haven't liked any of Coron's play today, though. he looked pretty anti-town to me before the claim. Regardless, now it looks like I'm not going to get that choice.

[Macavenger]

Near, how do you feel about lynching DBE? Do you think she's been scummy, and if so, why? If you're not willing to see Coron lynched, it's between you and her.

[Macavenger]

Accusing me of being scum is not exactly a powerful motivator to let you live.

I'm not really sure I want to lynch anyone right now, but we have to lynch someone, and the way the votes are arranged, I pretty much have to be the decider, barring someone else logging on at the last moment.

[Macavenger]

We can't lynch Dasquian with just you, me, and Guardian, and I wouldn't help lynch him anyway, because my read on him is pretty town for the moment.

Assuming I'm scum is also not a productive assumption to make at the moment. I'm trying to pull out as much information as I can to give us the best chance at lynching correctly.

[Macavenger]

Near, mac is at least average; hes not super likely scum.

Interesting turnaround from a couple pages ago, when you said you were willing to hammer me. Is me being here to make a decision that strong a pro-town tell?

[Macavenger]

1) I don't know anymore
2) I have no clue what scum would claim, honestly
3) Um uh, I don't know, 40ish? with 100 being obvscum.

Ok basically here's where I'm at right now.

I don't especially want to lynch Near. I do believe he was scummy earlier today, but he's been a lot better lately, and as other players have commented, it doesn't entirely feel right.

I'm not sold on DBE either. As I said, she's been acting equally scummy but less newbie lately. She did sorta half-claim power, but there are good reasons for scum to do that there also. Her semi-claim is also pretty testable tomorrow, I think.

Coron I legitimately think was scummy for a chunk of the game, and replaced a minorly scummy player. However, he has claimed tracker. Yes the claim was bad, but that doesn't make it scummy. I read over it again and it actually made marginally more sense to me. I'm also somewhat put off by how hard Guardian is driving it right now.

Basically I feel like I'm staring 3 marginal-at-best lynches in the face right now, but we have to do one of them.

[Macavenger]

Your reasoning in that bigger post was a lot better. Up til then you'd mostly just been screaming omg lynch bandwagon lynch go kill die kill! Which is not really reassuring when discussing lynching a claimed tracker.

Rereading Coron's claim again also.

[Macavenger]

There is no way coron is town and near is scum.

Absolutely, no scum would ever be dumb enough to say "No, you can't have a choice between me and a claimed tracker, I'll die instead." There's just no way.

meh ok so I am a sucker for peer pressure ... and I feel Near isnt a scum


unvote; Vote: Coron

This is an intersting development. Oh god, head spinning.

[Macavenger]

EBWOP: No scum would ever be willing to say that if he knew the claimed tracker was town.

[Macavenger]

I am leaning toward "hammering" Coron at the moment.

Still thinking.

[Macavenger]

No, don't full claim until Day 2 starts, assuming you live that long. Your weird claim timing is weird enough that you'll pretty much have to I think, but actually saying your ability at the moment can only advantage the scum.

Looking at votes, I just realized DBE was previously voting Near. So Near, DBE, and Coron are all at 3.

I am less than entirely pleased with the revelation that a Near lynch is now basically impossible, even though I don't think it's what I wanted.

[Macavenger]

Well Near appears to have gone to bed, so this is probably moot, but

unvote; vote Coron.

I find his lynch superior to either of the other possible choices, were DBE still even a choice.

[Macavenger]

I have doubts. But I have doubts about any of the possible lynches we could have done tonight, and my only real doubts about Coron boil down to "lynching PRs iz bad k?" I have much larger doubts about the others.

[Macavenger]

Who else wishes they could see the faces of the rest of the players when they wake up tomorrow morning, the game is 3 pages longer, and Corong is the lynch?

[Macavenger]

Town will probably crucify all of us tomorrow if he doesn't show up scum, though. ;_;

I do think it was our best chance out of the options available.

[Macavenger]

There are basically 3 possibilities here, in no particular order.

1) Near and Coron are both town, and probably Guardian is scum trying to get us to lynch a tracker.
2) Near and Coron are both scum.
3) Near is town believing Coron's claim, but is wrong and Coron is scum.

There's almost no reason to lynch Near over Coron at this point, since if Coron is town Near essentially has to be. So, if we believe Coron... we need to figure out how to do something else.

I personally distrust Coron based on scummy stuff I saw long before his claim - logic I considered anti-town and such that I pointed out in the thread at the time.

[Macavenger]

If we were to decide (in the 15 minutes or so we have left) that we all believe Coron's claim, the proper play here is probably actually for the three of us still here to lynch Guardian - he has a stray vote on him from PyroDwarf still, so the three of us could do that.

Right now I'm not inclined to trust Coron's claim.

Near, if you really believe Coron's claim, convince me why he shouldn't be lynched, and vote Guardian.

[Macavenger]

I think you can exclude 2) unless for some reason you think Coron has some kind of power role (like godfather) that I don't have.

It's a possibility I can't rule out. I do think it's less likely.

[Macavenger]

I find 1 to be marginally more probable than 4, Guardian. But 4 is a distinct possibility.

I agree that 3 is the most likely, from my viewpoint.

[Macavenger]

I'm still unwilling to vote Dasquian, so you can forget that option.

[Macavenger]

Picking a random person and trying to get all 4 votes on them in 4 minutes is beyond stupid.

I'm stickign with Coron. There's your decisive action.

[Macavenger]

Yeah Dasquian is amusingly far behind.

[Macavenger]

And my forum is showing 1am now, so that should be a lynch.

/*
* Right you are. Twilight begins here.
*/

[Macavenger]

Oops, missed a page and a half of posting.

Uh, you missed a lot more than that, Das.

[Macavenger]

I'm sitting here imagining Dasquian's face when he finally catches up with what he's missing and giggling uncontrollably. I'm sorry, but regardless of the game implications of how this turns out, this is hilarious.

I wonder if Claus will be here soon.

[Macavenger]

I think I'm too wound up from laughing at the reactions of Dasquian and Singing Librarian to all this new content to sleep right away. I really need to though.

Logging off for the night to try to calm down. Hope we were right about Coron, and see you guys Day 2.

[Macavenger]

Hey guys, sorry I haven't had a chance to comment on the new day here yet - had a busy couple of days again. Should be able to post something tomorrow unless more surprises come up.

[Macavenger]

Ok, a couple notes about last night's lynch.

I was not convinced by Guardian's pushing last night, nor was I just lynching Coron because he claimed tracker at a bad time. I expressed suspicion of Coron in at least 3 posts yesterday (here, here, and here), and believed he had possibly anti-town motivations based on that, long before he claimed. His claim timing didn't really help matters. Basically, I hadn't seen anything I considered especially pro-town from him, and I was lightly suspicious of VampanezeHunter before he replaced out. I lynched Coron mostly based on this stuff. Guardian's pushing actually made it a bit harder, as I mentioned in the runup to deadline. Overall I went with the fact that I had seen things I considered anti-town from Coron, and had not seen anything particularly pro-town.

I'm really not sure where this Mac/Das scumpair bit is coming from. There's a very simple, easy, and correct explanation for why I wouldn't vote him yesterday, which is that I think he's most likely pro-town. I have not yet seen a case on Dasquian that makes sense to me this game.

As for today, MBF's recent responses seem very strange. Aiming for a no-lynch is generally really bad Day 1 to my understanding, and I don't really like the way he's trying to blow off Yos' questions.

DBE, why did you target Dasquian last night as a Watcher?

I'm not ready to vote yet today.

[Macavenger]

Right, no one targetted him, which means almost nothing. Did you have reason to believe anyone would target him last night? If you think he's suspicious, why not target someone you think he might kill?

[Macavenger]

Claiming at L-2 is still a touch early. I hate how everyone is claiming early this game, it's making me cranky and paranoid.

Don't most games with a Tracker have a Watcher too? It seems like a natural pairing.

What was Joudas doing that caused you to not have a read on him, Guardian? My read was very strongly pro-town, so the result makes sense, but he really didn't seem hard to read to me.

I'm actually inclined to believe both claims right now. Watcher makes sense with a tracker, and some of the stuff Guardian has said does vaguely support the idea of him being a cop. I also really don't want to lynch another claimed power role at the moment, that didn't go so well last time. :X

I think I need to reread now. Most of my best suspects from Day 1 are dead or claimed or similar at this point.

[Macavenger]

Well, that is cretainly interesting. I like the cop for scum.

unvote

, Assuming you are correct, for now. If I were the cop, I would have investigated DBE, because I thought there was a lot of investigative roles. I don't know about mass claim. Maybe we could have DBE and guardian target the same person tonight. They would either be lying scum, or we could confirm guardian, assuming DBE is a watcher.

I don't like this post. What does "I like the cop for scum" mean? Why should he have investigated DBE? A claimed power is pretty likely to be NK'd if she's town, which makes a much higher than normal chance of a wasted investigation there. I also don't like this suggestion that they both target the same person tonight - that's pretty much just wasting some of the town's investigative power and would prove nothing.

[Macavenger]

ABWOP: Guardian, you still haven't answered my question further up this page:

What was Joudas doing that caused you to not have a read on him, Guardian? My read was very strongly pro-town, so the result makes sense, but he really didn't seem hard to read to me.

[Macavenger]

MBF, can you explain your case on Yosarian again? Right now I'm not really seeing much aside from OMGUS.

[Macavenger]

Vote: MBF

Yos is making way more sense. Unless Mike can come up with an actual case for Yos being suspicious, I don't see me changing that vote anytime soon.

[Macavenger]

ABWOP: Forgot to mention, Darla, your thought about you and Yos not being scum together just because of him pushing you is totally baseless. I'm actually seeing more of a connection there because you brought the idea up, although it'll stay firmly on the back burner unless and until Yos starts doing anything lynch worthy.

[Macavenger]

Are you guys serious in believing all this from Yosarian? Which argument/s of his do you agree with, Mac and DBE? You can't just say

and vote me. I want to know why.

Well technically I can, but I agree it might not be optimal.

Overall, Yos does sum it up pretty nicely in his last post here

Your responses fail, on pretty much every level, to either explain your actions in a plausable pro-town way or to show any logical flaw in my case. Which, by the way, is why most of the town is agreeing with me here. I don't know if you don't see that or if you're intentioanlly trying to pretend it's not true, but it really is.

But to humor you, I'll step through his main points.

1. You acted in a way that hurt the town and helped the scum.

2. You started a wagon on a pro-town power role only AFTER he claimed to be a pro-town power role, which makes me think there's a good chance that you attacked him because you wanted a pro-town power rle dead.

3. You consistantly gave craplogic reasons for doing so; you're changing your reasons now, but the only real reason you gave yesterday was the odd theory that Coron claimed tracker "in order to protect Near", which is one of the most illogical theories I've ever heard

4. You have admitted to trying to cause a no-lynch on day 1, which is an anti-town move in and of itself. And there's really no way I can see your vote on Coron at the end of the day yesterday as really having pro-town motives; like I said, my guess is that after you pushed the Near wagon for so long yesterday, you wanted to back off of it and let it cruise on to a lynch while you weren't on it so you would look better the next day, which is another common scum tactic.

5. After the bandwagon you started led to a lynch of the tracker, you instantly tried to shift the blame for the wagon to Guardian; another common scumtell.

6. OMGUS attack against me, which appears linked to your inability to actually defend yourself against the points I made.

7. Scummy defense in general today; you keep shifting your justifaction about why you did what you did, and none of the reasons you give really make sense.

8. You keep making other scummy random comments, like randomally accusing me and DGE of being scum toghether; when, in fact, you are the one who's much more linked to her, since you're the one who could have pushed a wagon on her over the edge yesterday but voted for Coron instead, even though you now claim that you didn't expect that vote to go anywhere.

1. is technically correct, but I don't put much weight in it. Townies can make mistakes and I should know.
2. is fairly sensible - I didn't see anything from you suspecting Coron prior to the claim. We all agree that the claim was bad, but I wouldn't lynch someone purely for claiming at a bad time. I've already pointed out my other reasons multiple times, so not going to bother doing it again here.
3. Yesterday he claimed to protect Near. Today it was to influence and/or out power roles. Yesterday you wanted him lynched, today you were secretly going for a no-lynch.
4. nothing to add here, I agree with Yosarian.
5. I don't have enough experience with to really comment fully on, but it makes sense.
6. is a big one. I'm still not seeing anything other than OMGUS in your attack on Yos.
7. is pretty related to three, similar thinking here.
8. is meh.

So I guess I'm primarily thinking along lines 2-4 and 6 right now. Some of the others I don't see as particularly strong, but I don't think any of them are flawed, and I disagree that your defenses have been adequate.

[Macavenger]

MBF posted while I was typing. OK, I guess you mentioned the doc thing yesterday too, but you've still had some shifting of reasons.

Why did you push Near's wagon for a while yesterday and then hop off it if you thought he was town the whole time?

[Macavenger]

I am voting Yos because I feel he is scum. If you think it's OMGUS, then fine. It's OMGUS. But how does that make me scum?

Well, because OMGUS voting is generally considered a scumtell? I mean if you had good evidence for his attacks on you being scummy, it would make sense, but as far as I can tell you don't.

That's because I DIDNT suspect him prior to claim. And I did keep pushing for his lynch strongly, because I wanted more pressure on Coron because I did not believe his claim, eventually lynching him if I couldn't get a sufficient explanation.

I don't understand why you would lynch him purely on the basis of him claiming, though. Yes, his claim was terrible, I'm with you 100% there. But lynching someone because they've claimed a pro-town power role and for no other reason just seems, well, really bad. You admit you didn't suspect him prior to the claim. I thought some of his actions prior to the claim were extremely anti-town and had to have a dogfight in my head for about 2 hours as to whether what I'd seen was really enough to lynch a claimed power role. And you're saying you wanted him lynched just for the claim?

OK, I guess you mentioned the doc thing yesterday too, but you've still had some shifting of reasons.

You and Yosarian are very alike. You both like to attack me for "shifting reasons" but come up with no evidence of the sort.

Yos already stole part of my response to this. I'm also looking at your claim today that you were trying for a no lynch, which really came out of left field and doesn't really match what you said yesterday at all.

[Macavenger]

I dunno, the above post from mbf is like, super town vibes. His thoughts on me, DBE, Pyro, Joudas, all make sense.

Partially I agree. His post is certainly a good idea if he's town, but I disagree with some of it. His stance on Joudas is a bit curious: be wary of him even though he's been cleared by a cop I claim to believe. Yeah GF blah blah, my reading of theory suggests that making godfather accusations against someone cop-cleared should only be done for very good reasons. Joudas also has like, pretty much the best reason ever for being kinda inactive right now.

I also strongly disagree with his comments on me, but I'll get to that in a minute.

His comments overall are a bit on the general/noncommittal side. I don't want to criticize that exactly, because I agree finding the scum in this game is pretty difficult right now, but that does make it easier for me to see it as possibly a scum generated post looking for town cred.

I know this isn't at all fair to Yos2, and I probably won't gain support for it, but a mix of bad vibe + Yos2 is just so damn good at scum is making me just want to lynch Yos2.

shaft.ed and Yos2 are the only two players I've played with who I put the category: "no leads? lynch them".

Honestly this makes me question your cop claim, Guardian. There's a very obvious answer to this situation for a cop. You've even stated it yourself earlier in the game.

Macavenger - I couldn't see what everybody was suspicious of at first, but there are signs. He didn't want to be the decider in who would be lynched, and scum don't usually want to be linked to a dead townsperson.

Because townies want to be be responsible for killing other townies.

I didn't want to be a decision maker there, because A) I hate being wrong and B) I'd rather it have been a whole town thing, but there was a deadline and pretty clearly no town consensus. Still, I felt the need for someone to ensure there wouldn't be a no-lynch (since I agree with the vast majority of players that no-lynching Day 1 is bad), so I did it anyway.

Also, he's been on every bandwagon so far, from Near to Coron to me, which indicates opportunism.

This is pretty much BS. I was on Near's wagon most of Day 1, inclunding a couple times when it was unpopular. I never touched any of the JtP wagons because I didn't buy into it. I also went after Guardian pretty much alone early Day 1, and was suspicious of Coron long before there was ever a wagon on him. Obviously I was wrong on at least a couple of those, but claiming I've been following the pack is an incomplete analysis, at best.

[Macavenger]

If you'd rather a lynch be a "whole town thing", then why did you participate in the speedlynch of Coron, when doing so prevented several players from being participants or even from giving their opinion?

Deadline. At best Near was going to be lynched with 4, maybe 5 votes. That's the closest we had to a town consensus, and we weren't going to get any closer. I felt the need to make sure we wouldn't no lynch, and Coron ended up being how it worked out.

Honestly, with the experience of that speedlynch behind me, it's probably not something I'll do again. But we didn't have a full town consensus for anything, and after the hours of frantic discussion with the people available at deadline, Coron seemed like the best thing at the time.

[Macavenger]

Sorry I haven't had enough time for mafia the last few days.

I've skimmed the couple pages I missed. Hi Albert.

Unvote

. Not too keen on lynching MBF at the moment.

I'm having a hard time getting my head around this game lately. More substantial post to come probably tomorrow, or if not almost certainly Thursday. I need more mental energy than I have right now to really look over Albert's posts and such.

On this directing the cop business: while it wasn't my goal, I can see how what I said could be interpreted as directing the cop, and why this is bad. However, I'm curious why my questioning why someone with cop powers would want to lynch someone they can't read gets an FoS and vote and such, while DBE blatantly asking the cop to investigate her sometime early gets basically ignored? Feels like a pretty steep double standard there to me.

[Macavenger]

So I've spent the last couple hours rereading various bits of this game focusing on different theories, and I still feel like I'm shooting in the dark a bit about who is scum. Best candidates for me at the moment in no particular order would be Dasquian, DBE, PyroDwarf, and MBF.

I unvoted MBF because, upon coming back after nothaving time for mafia for a couple days, I found MBF's posting while I was gone noticably more townlike. This kinda reinforced a few doubts I was starting to have before leaving.

I'm pretty unsure about MBF right now. Yosarian's case against him still makes sense to me, and I don't like how he reacted to the pressure initially when that went on. On the other hand, his recent posting seems like genuine scumhunting, and he seems pretty helpful and reasonable overall (recently). I also tend to agree that I don't see any particularly obvious connections between MBF and other players. I can't really tell if his recent mild defenses of me are scum trying to buddy with me or legitimate townie defense of someone they disagree with a case on. I tend to lean toward the latter. I still see a significant possibility of MBF being scum, but I don't think I really want to lynch him right now.

Albert's case on Dasquian/DBE mostly makes sense to me. DBE I thought was somewhat scummy yesterday, but didn't want to lynch due to newbie and claim considerations. I think what I've seen with her has pretty much evaporated my newbie concerns. I still don't want to lynch her right now due to claim considerations, but I think Albert's case here is very worth looking into if Dasquian comes up scum.

Rereading Dasquian in isolation gives me a lot less of the good vibes I was getting yesterday. His posting looks a lot more vacant to me now; pressuring lurkers and commenting on anyone else pretty much as little as possible. Definitely hasn't done any hard scumhunting.

PyroDwarf looks pretty scummy to me right now. Hasn't contributed much to the game. The recent blatant fishing is bad. I also don't like the way he claims to be not voting for MBF because of OMGUS considerations. Considering that he claims to have reasons for suspecting him, this strikes me as very fishy. Going back to Day 1, leaving his vote on Guardian all day is really odd, when he knew for most of the day that Guardian wouldn't be lynched, and appeared to support the likely Near lynch. Could easily be trying not to be traced to a townie lynch, there. Also, as a possible tie-in to ABR's theory, he's very quick to jump on the blame Guardian parade at the beginning of the day today.

A couple questions for ABR:

What? We lynch the claim tracker (as ridiculous as the timing of his claim is, AND IT IS) instead of Mr Scummy Near who has lurked all day and is not posting through L-2 and L-1 now? I say "not posting" rather than lurking now since it's the weekend and anyone gets a break for that in my book.

He references the aforementioned book. All joking aside, he is showing subtle signs of knowledge beyond the constrains of what town should know.

His quick turnaround on Near is acceptable as a standalone action, but I will return to my "appropriate emotional response" argument, and go so far as to say that he is completely incongruent with this (smart) move.

Please elaborate on this part of your case, I'm not fully understanding it. Specifically, what are you seeing in that quote by Dasquian that shows knowledge of players' alignment?

More generally, could you explain why you think Yosarian is the third member of the scumgroup, specifically as opposed to MBF or PyroDwarf? PyroDwarf in particular seems to fit into your theory better than Yosarian, and be very scummy independent of it, whereas I still don't see much of a case on Yos.

I will most likely be voting for PyroDwarf or Dasquian today. Currently I'm probably leaning a bit toward Pyro. I'd like to hear some more explanation from ABR at least before deciding, though.

[Macavenger]

I don't think he is scum But I'd vote Dasq to prove a point that I am not his scum buddy, you can call it distancing or not but a good scum buddy wouldn't put their partner at L-1 now would they?

My god, the WIFOM, someone help I'm drowni-

Very tempted to vote Dasquian now.

[Macavenger]

Ugh, this recent post by DBE is just so incredibly scummy I can't get my mind around it. I can't figure out if the play here is to just go ahead and lynch Dasquian for probably being her partner and because she's a claimed power role, or just lynch DBE now for incredible scumminess.

[Macavenger]

Because theres actually only 9 alive wouldn't the next vote Hammer?

No, there are 10 alive.

[Macavenger]

Well now I'm not voting Dasquian, because it's not time for a hammer yet. I'm pretty sure DBE is scum at this point, though.

More rereading and probably some questions for Dasquian to follow.

[Macavenger]

what logic tells you that I would (if i were scum w/ dasq) Put him at L-1 ?

Where in the play books or w.e the hell you call em does it say such a thing? Isn't the point of Mafia to WIN if you are the Mafia? Which is a LOT easier if you don't lose a partner.

So help me understand your logic here.

Darla, you're smarter than this. But just on the off chance you honestly don't get it, see Bussing and Distancing.

We're probably still better off lynching Dasquian today, honestly. But I'm not going to hammer him without giving him more of a chance to talk first.

[Macavenger]

Vote: DBE

On reflection, the last few posts are just way too blatantly scummy to pass up.

[Macavenger]

Remind me why we're taking lynching advice from someone we think is scum?

That said, if Dasquian and DBE are both off the table, Pyro would be my next choice. I'd rather lynch DBE or Dasuiqn, though.

[Macavenger]

Hm, want some time to think about Dasquian's last couple posts.

Unvote

because I don't want anyone hammering while I"m at work today.

[Macavenger]

I've been doing some rereading, and honestly I'm not confident enough in anyone being scum to vote right now. I will probably be voting for DBE or PyroDwarf at some stage today. Currently leaning slightly towards PyroDwarf. While I don't expect to be hamering without warning or anything, be advised I may be voting for either of those 2 whenever I manage to make up my mind.

[Macavenger]

You're missing the part where Near categorically refused to vote for the claimed tracker when told the lynch would be either him or Coron. That play is beyond ludicrous for a scum. Honestly, if ABR is scum this game, I'm nominating Near for a scummy when it's over because that was the most ridiculous gambit ever.

I've made a decision for today.

Vote: Dasquian

(L-1)

Here's my thinking. My best scumgroup theory right now is DBE, Dasquian, PyroDwarf.
DBE is the scummiest, but her lynch is tactically unsound, since if she is by some miracle a watcher, the scum have no incentive not to kill the claimed cop and we have less leads for D3. Further, her scumminess could be newbie issues (I highly doubt it, but it's possible).
PyroDwarf is also quite scummy, but has disadvantages to being today's lynch. He fits into most possible scumgroups, and as such would give us less leads for D3 again. Also, I can also see his scummy actions being driven by newbie/RL considerations.
Dasquian is the least scummy of hte three, but still likely to be scum in my opinion. Further, his lynch is the only one with no tactical drawbacks. From his alignment, we get a clue about whether we should trust any watcher results from DBE, as well as arguably a better idea on where we should be looking for the rest of the scum.

Basically I think all three are likely to turn up scum, and Dasquian is the least disastrous mislynch of the bunch if I'm wrong.

[Macavenger]

Weird, the scum are killing off all our lurkers.

So we now have confirmed Tracker and one-shot dayvig, and claimed watcher and cop. Would that be an overpowered town even if the scum have like, RB'er and Godfather? I'm not a setup balance expert, but that seems awfully loaded for a mini to me.

I've heard a theory elsewhere that scum offing lurkers tends to imply scum are not lurking. What do you guys here think of that idea? If true, it would tend towards PyroDwarf being town.

Limitedish access this weekend, and this game is low priority for me atm. Don't expect a ton of content from me until Monday.

[Macavenger]

Thoughts with respect to the two claimed info roles.

First, ruling out a scum watcher strikes me as disingenuous. Consider that we already have a confirmed tracker and OSDayVig. How often do you see those two roles together in a mini normal? For that matter, how often do you see either of those roles in a mini normal? This strikes me as a meta-breaking setup, and I applaud Claus for doing so. As such, I don't really think we should be ruling anything out.

As for the theory of them both being scum not pulling this because a Doc could screw things up: There was some possible doc fishing yesterday, whether by scum or misguided town we don't know. No one bit on it obviously - I wasn't looking for subtle reactions to it, because I don't need or want to know who the doc is, if we have one. So, the scum could suppose that there was unlikely to be a Doc, and if there was one, I don't know that Guardian would have been the greatest target last night after Dasquian came up town. So it would certainly be a gamble, but I wouldn't rule it out entirely.

Now, on the prospect of them both being pro-town. It's fairly safe to say the scum don't have a roleblocker, since neither of them were blocked last night. Can you balance three scum against even tracker/watcher/OSV without a blocker (assuming naive cop, for argument)? Honest question here, I'm not a setup expert. GF does nothing against those 3. I think if Guardian and DBE are both town, we should probably assume Guardian is naive unless he gets a guilty on someone.

No lynch seems like the obvious play for today, and beyond that I'd suggest scum hunting as being more effective than setup guessing to figure out Guardian and DBE's alignments, because all combinations seem plausible to me.

[Macavenger]

lol I say we just all lynch macavenger. All our leads point to him.

If you had any credibility, I'd argue against this, but since you don't I see no need.

Vote: No Lynch

[Macavenger]

DBE flipping Watcher pretty much confirms Guardian, IMO. The idea that he's a targetting scum role that targeted himself to confirm a townie is pretty damn farfetched. That said, since I agree ABR is basically clear, and I know I'm town, that means Guardian is either naive (more likely IMO, based on three investigative roles, and the scum pretty clearly not having an RB) or hit a godfather. So this basically means his investigations are bunk to me.

So, I'm pretty confident Guardian and ABR are town. I know I'm town. That leaves Yos2, MBF, Joudas, PyroDwarf.

I had a town read on Joudas Day 1, so my intuitive guess would be PyroDwarf, Yos2, MBF. The strongest case against PyroDwarf is the doc fishing though, which doesn't make a ton of sense if he's fishing on a scumbuddy. Unless he would be trying ot fish for a reaction from a real Doc by questioning his buddy? I really don't know if that's a viable scum tactic or not. Hmm.

I now agree with Guardian that Yos2 is likely scum. The fact that he's just accusing Guardian of OMGUS here is a pretty good indicator IMO. Nevertheless, I'd be more comfortable if Guardian and ABR could pull their votes until we discuss it a bit more, given that this is LyLo and all.

[Macavenger]

On that note, though: Mac - why do you suspect MBF? He's the one I'm least sure about. I'd be interested to hear your reasoning.

Actualy the more I think about it, the less I suspect him, but I'll kind of outline how I'm thinking right now.

Guardian and ABR are basically cleared to my satisfaction. I know I'm town. Thus, the scumgroup lies in {Joudas, PyroDwarf, Yos2, MBF}.

Yos2 and Pyrodwarf look very likely to be scum. Assuming they both are, the last scum is either Joudas or MBF.

Points in favor of MBFScum:
- imagining the Coron wagon day 1 as all townies is just painful, and he's the only one left to be scum on it.
- I read Joudas as town Day 1.
- Still feel like Yos2 came out better in their argument Day 2, although this means little now that Yos2 is very likely scum.
- Refusal to claim at L-1 was kinda odd.

For JoudasScum:
- Pyrodwarf's scumtells make far less sense if he's scum with MBF.
-

My guess is that the scum realized that Guardian was naive when he said he targeted Joudas, and thus was not a threat.

- MBF's recent actions seem pretty protown
- Aside from the refusal to claim thing, which may not mean much, MBF looked very town near lynch

I'd probably have to reread 56 pages to get much more detail, ugh. Basically as I really lay it out and look at it, the case for MBF being scum is pretty weak, so the scum is most likely Yos2, Pyrodwarf, Joudas.

The general consensus seems to be that Yos2 is going first. I'll give a bit more time for discussion, then probably vote.

[Macavenger]

I'm willing ot hammer Yos at this point if people are done discussing, but want to put out a few things here first.

MBF, could you please produce a full case against me for me to argue against? Right now all I really see is that I was uncertain about PyroDwarf for most of the game. I can see where you get lack of interaction with him much as scummy given that we're now nearly certain he's scum, but you have to admit there hasn't been a ton to interact with. I disagreed with Guardian's case on him Day 1, started to dislike him later, and now believe he pretty much has to be scum based on a couple tells and process of elimination.

The time you cite of me defending him on the no lynch day wasn't really a defense, it was a question.

I've heard a theory elsewhere that scum offing lurkers tends to imply scum are not lurking. What do you guys here think of that idea? If true, it would tend towards PyroDwarf being town.

Realize that I asked this one time and never pushed the idea at all, and also that I asked it on the no lynch day, at a time when it was still conceivable DBE and Guardian could be scum (which looked kinda likely at the time, given how crazy scummy DBE was), so there wasn't much of an elimination case for PyroDwarf at that point.

Also look over my post about you and Joudas again. I'm not trying to link you to the scumteam there; quite the opposite. Walking through my logic today again for you: Day dawns, seven alive. I know I'm town; Guardian and ABR are basically cleared. This leaves PD, Yos, MBF, and Joudas as possible scum. Yos2 and PD float to the top of the list, leaving one of the remaining 2 as scum. Joudas asks me why I think you're scum. I think about it for a minute, realize you probably aren't, and make that post. The point of that was to show that my thoughts about why you could be scum basically sucked, and that as a result it was probably Joudas. Pulling a couple points in that post where I said that:

Actualy the more I think about it, the less I suspect him

I'd probably have to reread 56 pages to get much more detail, ugh. Basically as I really lay it out and look at it, the case for MBF being scum is pretty weak, so the scum is most likely Yos2, Pyrodwarf, Joudas.

If you've got anything else, please show me. I'd like to avoid being responsible for a town loss if at all possible.

I'll try to reread and get a case against Joudas up sometime soon, since it looks like he and I are probably going to be in the final three at this point.

[Macavenger]

Can I have a chance anyway? I mean, if I'm right and you're town, we're both going to lose. Can't really say I deserve to win this game, but still.

I didn't interact with Yos much because I didn't see anything scummy from him the first couple days. I understand his "Most Cunning Manipulator" bit a lot better now.

[Macavenger]

I came to a minor realization a bit ago.

It's going to take me some time to respond to MBF, because his case is not obviously flawed in any large way (I've played like shit this game, and freely admit that). I'm gonna have to go through with a fine tooth comb pulling quotes and such, and it's going to take hours or days. Meanwhile, Yos2 is still scum regardless, this discussion is going nowhere, and there's no reason I can't work on my reply while the game is in night.

Vote: Yosarian2

=====[]

I am fully committed to responding to MBF's thoughts even if he is NK'd tonight, for the benefit of the rest of town.

[Macavenger]

Sorry guys, I've been busy over the holiday weekend and haven't had much time for Mafia.

I'm off work tomorrow, will hopefully have time to post something more substantial then.

[Macavenger]

Couple quick thoughts before I go to bed for the night -

Why are we voting? This is, under any remotely sane assumption about the setup, LyLo. I can kinda understand the Pyro votes since he was discussed as a likely lynch for today yesterday, but still...

Yosarian flipping Werewolf is further evidence that Guardian was 'naive' IMO. Flavorwise, cops generally find mafia, not werewolves. Technically, Guardian could have been sane, as Claus apparently hinted to him, but still get no results because there were no mafia in the game for him to find.

More tomorrow when I'm less tired.

[Macavenger]

I haven't had the kind of big blocks of time to devote to mafia recently that I'm used to, so I haven't been able to lay out a comprehensive response/case to everything by now as I would have liked. I've kinda given up on that for now and have decided to take things in stages. So, some analysis of Joudas's Day 1 play.

Assumption for some later analysis: PyroDwarf is scum.

Summary: Very little scumhunting, lots of shifts of suspicion in order to align with popular wagons and subtly push them. Avoids taking firm stands on many issues where possible. Attacks players a lot, but asks few questions, doesn't vote a lot. Mentions PyroDwarf only once, distancing a bit when Guardian is attacking him. Does not mention Yosarian at all, or at least not in any significant context. Ends the day coasting to a probable Near lynch with his vote sitting there for a while.

Very slightly edited notes:

* indicates scumhunting
(*) indicates possible scumhunting, but weak or not followed up much

3: Mild comment on my theory
4-8: Theory discussion on Guardian. Mirrored my feelings well, contributing to town read
*8: Mild questions for Guardian
9: Near probably scum, VH case is poor
4-10: Despite active discussion of theory with Guardian, carefully avoids taking a stand on Guardian, Near still scummy
10: Wild assumptions about Near, FoS
11: Unwilling to vote Near though
-- Near posts, gets people to unvote him, VH becomes vote leader
12: Suddenly VH is really scummy, Near not so much
(*)14: Asks Coron to support argument with quotes, possible hunting, but Coron produces only one quote with a little re-explanation, never follows up
15: As a wagon starts forming on Pyro, suddenly his play is very me too and antitown, despite getting no prior mention. Also, now that the town has pretty much ignored VH/Coron, he does too, and suddenly Near is pretty scummy again. Finally takes a stand that Guardian is pretty townish now that I've stopped turning heat on Guardian
16/17: Phox not scummy
18: attacks Coron a bit
21: Pressure starts turning up on Phox and Near, suddenly the case on phox has merit, votes near
25: Noncommittal about Near as he gets up to L-2 again, but makes some noises about how he's really scummy, could be pushing - argument against was "lack of links"
26: Asks why is Near scummy? He just talked about this in his last post, could be gauging the strength of the wagon?
27: Sudden attack on Guardian and Coron when Guardian attacks Dasquian and popular opinion swings against Guardian
28-30: mild argument with Coron about his FoS
32: talks about why Guardian's attack on Dasquian was bad, contributed to town read
(*)37: Some scumhunting on DBE
39: DBE is a bad lynch, despite never answering his questions
40: I'm not scum, confirm vote Near
(*)41: Why vote DBE, MBF?
42: Points out that MBF didn't really answer 41, but he still doesn't, and it doesn't come up again

I included up there a couple notes about stuff that I recall contributing to the town read I had on Joudas Day 1, and hence why I defended/didn't suspect him until later. Basically, he argued my position in the theory etc. debate with Guardian, which I feel was the correct town position, and did so better than I did, honestly. His attacks were all fairly well founded, which I liked at the time. [Reading back in hindsight, and knowing nearly certainly by elimination that he has to be scum, it was pretty easy to see how opportunistic and swingy his opinion was - I note specifically posts 11-12, 17-21, and 37-39 where near-complete reversals of opinion happen despite minimal content from the target, in each case conveniently aligning his opinion with a building wagon.] He seemed pretty thoughtful and conservative with his vote at the time. [Looking at it now, his suspicions bounced liberally toward convenient targets and he rarely voted to back it up.] I may also have been a bit swayed by his defensiveness/buddying with me - I really don't know for certain there. Largely suspected similar players to me, just less consistently - lowering suspicion of Near, raising on Phox a couple times when I didn't to match town opinion, and similar - I think I failed to notice the convenient timing of his changes of opinion because of his suspicions on VH, Near, and Coron at various times being pretty close to mine - at the time I took this as an indication that he was looking around with a good scumdar.

I've already stayed up way too late for tonight, so I'll work on stuff more tomorrow.

[Macavenger]

He's been more pro-town than most of the townspeople. And he seems really sincere about everything. It's perhaps the best act I've seen in awhile, and even now I really feel in my gut that he's town, even though I have deduced that he is not.

I encourage you to listen to your gut here. It's correct.

Do you disagree with my analysis of Joudas' D1 play in any substantial way? Granted I came at it with the full advantages of hindsight and near-certainty via process of elimination that he has to be scum, but looking back at it I find it a fairly compelling case.

Is there anything that points to PyroDwarf not being scum with Joudas other than this thing about him feeling threatened? I don't find that a very compelling argument for them not being scum together, personally - if he was getting bussed when he didn't expect it, yeah, he might act threatened.

Your case on me basically seems to be that I didn't interact much with Pyrodwarf or Yosarian. This is reasonably accurate, but mainly just because my scumdar failed utterly at the beginning of this game. Don't worry, it's been duly broken for its failure and replaced. I did at least comment that I thought PyroDwarf and Yos were town Day 1 - sure, I was completely wrong, but that's more interaction than Joudas had with them.

[Macavenger]

MBF, can you elaborate a bit on why you think Pyro and Joudas to be not scum with each other? I went back through Pyro's posts looking for stuff about him being threatened by Joudas, and I'm not really finding a lot. My guess is that you're referring to this section of posts:

Maybe we could have DBE and guardian target the same person tonight. They would either be lying scum, or we could confirm guardian, assuming DBE is a watcher.

Pyro makes a wonderful scummy suggestion. Get's FoS'd and such by Joudas, then...

@joudas: I responded to your allegations. As i said, I just wanted to be sure guardian was the cop. I thought he was scummy up untill the point he claimed. I suppose old suspicions die hard. I wasn't trying to direct night choices in any way, I guess I was still under the impression that he was scum.

Later..

@joudas: I see what you mean. I didn't think this plan thru, obv. I just wanted a way to verify that guardian is indeed the cop before he goes and leads the town right down the drain. My reasoning with that plan was If guardian is lying, he wouldnt target playerX and dbe would, she would say "hey guardian never showed up." more in a min

That's about all I could find of him defending against Joudas, really. The exchange looks more like Pyro proposing good nightchoices for scum, Joudas calling him on it to distance and look town, and PyroDwarf trying to deflect suspicion. I don't really see much being threatened in there particularly. Also worth noting that bussing Pyro wouldn't have been a bad play at that point, IMO - he was lurky and a bit scummy, and Yos and Joudas were both still alive at the time and neither was under any real suspicion.

Is there something else I'm missing here as to why you think they can't be scum together? As far as I can tell, you think Joudas looks scummy, you think Pyro looks scummy, you think they're not together because ?, you think I look townie, but you think I'm scum because they're not together (?), and because I haven't interacted with the scum to speak of (which can also be caused by otal failure of scumhunting).

Fill in the blanks for me here? Cause I'm not really seeing why they can't be scum together in your perspective.

[Macavenger]

Welcome killa.

Please help me out here by confirming Joudas is your scumbuddy, thanks.

[Macavenger]

Mac defended Yosarian, and tried to shift ABR's vote from him to Pyro.

Mac defends Joudas. A lot. Check post 803 (his 91st)

Joudas didn't see scum in Mac five times, never talked to him directly.

Minor: Mac intended to work on his reply during the night, regardless of who dies. Because he knew he wouldn't be dead in the morning.

Joudas made his case against Pyro early, during Yos's attack on me, and talked directly to him often.

Mac defends Pyro four or five times,

throws suspicion on him once.

ABR, your case for me being scum with Joudas above is pretty WIFOM, honestly.

I've explained why I had a town read on Joudas Day 1 and defended him a lot. It was a mistake.
Joudas not seeing scum in me is not meaningful - scum defend townies regularly, both as buddying and so they can look good if that townie is lynched or NK'd.
I was pretty damn sure I wouldn't be NK'd when I said that, because I was the townie under the most suspicion. Scum would have had to be stupid to kill off their easiest mislynch. Besides, if I was killed overnight then it wouldn't matter, would it?
Joudas didn't really make a case against Pyro that early that I saw, and when he did it was bussing.
Suspecting Pyro is not evidence of scum with Joudas.

YOu yourself voiced the possibility at the end of the day yesterday that killa might be scum. Think this through a bit.

This is also WIFOM, but if I'm scum, why the hell do I leave you alive over MBF, who's actually been somewhat listening to me?

Pyro was lurking, doc fishing, etc. He never really paid any attention to Yosarian either, and talked to Joudas only after Joudas started bussing him.

I know ABR is town and K7 already voted, so

Vote: Killah seven

I know you probably won't, but please think this through and make the right choice, ABR.

[Macavenger]

I wonder why there's no hammer....hmmmm......could it be that Pyro is scum ?

You're expressing some doubts in your confidence at the end of the day yesterday. Please think about them. You've been wrong before this game on Dasquian and DBE. I was wrong on all the scum at the start. I'm telling you you're wrong now.

Seriously, killing MBF last night would have been terrible play if I'm scum, but it's perfect for K7 scum. MBF actually listened to me somewhat, and wasn't 100% sold on me being scum. Versus you, who doesn't tend to listen as much, and thinks I'm completely scum. If K7 is scum though, leaving you alive he gets to be in the final three with one townie who says he wants vote-vote-lynch with no discussion on the other townie.

MBF said I looked pretty town. Pyro definitely did some scummy stuff. The only real case against me is that I was totally wrong on my scumhunting early.

[Macavenger]

I buddied with Joudas Day 1. Not so much after that, that I can recall.

I have to leave for work in about 5 minutes. Not enough time to go looking back through stuff right now, obviously.

Joudas pushing the pyro wagon could easily have been bussing trying to set up my lynch - he was trying to pin me to pyro while doing it, mind you, and had MBF relatively convinced Pyro and I were scum together at one point.

Now, this isn't really much of a case for why I'm not scum, but I'm trying to show you a lot of your case on me is also WIFOM, to get you to not reflexively hammer me. Which seems to have worked for the moment.

I should have time to do a quick targeted reread and post some more concrete stuff later tonight.

[Macavenger]

Or not.

GG scum.

[Macavenger]

Nope, I'm really not.

[Macavenger]

Imagining ABR's face when Claus posts the end of game scene is making this loss so incredibly much easier to take.

You really take the firing squad thing way too far, ABR.

[Macavenger]

2/5 this game isn't exactly what I would call talent. Course, I should talk, given I was like uh, 3/ ...8? 9? I dunno.

[Macavenger]

LOL ABR you still think you won, don't you? If I hadn't lost too this would be like the funniest thing ever.

[Macavenger]

Yeah, you shouldn't have felt bad at all hammering Joudas there, killa - two of the townies thought the other was scum with Joudas, and one of those townies was ABR. Can't go wrong bussing there.

I was kind of hoping and planning around killing Pyro D5 - I thought the wagon was blowing in that direction, so I was surprised to find it night with Joudas dead after not being able to check for a couple days. I kinda had to argue against Joudas there because I knew he was scum and he wasn't suspected so much at that point - guess I did it a little too well. I wanted to get rid of Pyro first because doing so would force ABR to reevaluate his Joudas/Mac are scum thing, in fear of exactly what happened.

And yeah, I noticed while rereading looking for Joudas scum that Coron totally owned the rest of the town D1, and we lynched him for it. Sorry Coron.

Lol. Yeah, I was pretty sure ABR was going to end up costing the town the game one way or another.

Yeah, pretty much. I can't really say I didn't help him a little, though - tagging and defending all three of the scum as likely town on Day 1 is not exactly my proudest moment in mafia.

Well played by the scum this game.

[Macavenger]

Oh, and now that the game's over, newbie card - I think Joudas buddied with me pretty effectively Day 1, and I was still inexperienced enough to fall for it, and combined with his stance mirroring me on Guardian's theory stuff I didn't really read him as carefully as I should have. I feel like with my current experience 2+ months later, I probably would have tagged him D1, or at least been pretty suspicious along the lines of what Coron was seeing.

I definitely learned from the Coron fiasco - that's not something I'm likely to participate in again.

[Macavenger]

I'm still waiting for ABR to come in here and eat crow. Of course, from what I know of ABR, I may be waiting a long time.

Also thanks for modding Claus, very interesting unorthodox setup, and I enjoyed playing in it.