Mafia 98 - Apennine Mafia (Game Over)

[GIEFF]

Mastin, are you still happy with your vote for BM?

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Sens, I take it your vote for jammer is semi-random OMGUS, and has little to do with my or Kairyuu's reasons for voting him. Is that correct?


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Zachrulez:

As is Gieff, due to his attacks on Jammer over stating 4 scum as fact being some kind of "scum slip." I don't subscribe heavily into that as a strong scumtell. In fact given that 3 scum tends to make a lot more sense in this kind of a setup, I think it's more likely that Gieff is scum attacking Jammer's "slip."

Although the math states that 2 mafia is the most balanced, the math assumes random lynches, and does not take into account the fact that finding scum gets exponentially easier as more are lynched. I do not think that 4 scum is so unreasonable that it cannot be the case, although if there are 4, we are in for a tough game. I actually think that 4 scum is more likely than 2, as a 2-scum setup would be way too swingy, and Yaw may not have been familiar with that particular bit of theory.

Can you give your reasoning as to why "3 scum tends to make a lot more sense in this type of setup?"

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Does anybody have a link to a similarly-sized all-vanilla game, or can somebody more experienced with vanilla setups (or Yaw's preferences/knowledge of vanilla setups) shed some light? If 4 scum is extremely unlikely, then jammer's scumminess drops dramatically. However, the fact that two players (alexhans and jammer) decided 4 scum was the most likely scenario makes me think a 4-scum setup is not as unlikely as zachrulez and Cephrir believe it to be.


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jammer,

How many scum do you think there are in this game? Why?

[SensFan]

Sens, I take it your vote for jammer is semi-random OMGUS, and has little to do with my or Kairyuu's reasons for voting him. Is that correct?

My vote for him is because I think he's more likely than the rest of you to be Scum.

[Zachrulez]

http://www.mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php ... ountainous

The example game provided had 2 scum for a 12 player game for a 2:10 ratio.

That's a pretty balanced setup for a game with no power roles.

4:12 just seems to favor the scum way too much without any power roles to compensate.

3:13 gets pretty close to the ratio of the mountainous game in the example on that wiki page. (It does look to favor scum a little bit more though, but not significantly.)

2:14 powers the town significantly more than the 2:10 in the example.

When you take those numbers into account, 3 scum makes the most sense.

[Zachrulez]

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 31&start=0

For mafia discussion on the percentages. It's an old thread, but it seems generally agreed upon that 25% scum in a game calls for some kind of power roles to balance it.

[Benmage]

Vote

BM

[GIEFF]

Thanks, Zachrulez. I read some more through the wiki and mafia discussion, and the standard 2 scum vs. 10 townies setup is a DAY start (note that this post is by Sensfan, oddly enough), so for comparison purposes, a 4-scum setup here would be 4-scum vs. 11 townies. Adding 2 scum and 1 townie to a balanced setup is obviously unbalancing, so 4 scum is just too unlikely for jammer's assumption to be a slip, even if a 4-scum setup assured jammer as scum 100% of the time.

unvote jammer

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Sens, I take it your vote for jammer is semi-random OMGUS, and has little to do with my or Kairyuu's reasons for voting him. Is that correct?

My vote for him is because I think he's more likely than the rest of you to be Scum.

Why

do you think he is more likely than the rest of us to be scum?

And another question - you obviously know that the 2/10 setup is a day start, and that 4 scum is probably very unlikely. Why didn't you contribute to that discussion when I asked people with more experience to shed some light on it? Is it a coincidence that the person your silence incriminated (in my mind at least) is the same person you voted for without providing any reasoning?

[jammer]

And what would you propose we do on D1? This game is going to be filled with a lot of WIFOM to find scum, as there is no role confirmation.

Looking for scum-slips and tells. And wifom based on that, not on what died, and wifom based on that.
Lynching based on who died, are you considering that?
Based on what died. Who seems a good candidate doing that according to you? And who not.

jammer,

How many scum do you think there are in this game? Why?

As I said 2 is best by math. 4 is to different from that. 2 or 3.


My scummyness drops loads if 4 scum is unreasonable?

My "scummyness" is based on the number of scum that I said...
So if Alex said 6 or 1, and I believed that. You wouldn't even discuss this matter?

.... even if a 4-scum setup assured jammer as scum 100% of the time.

It sounds, if I said 3 you would yell towards other players to vote me, the obv. scum.

Now you realise your reason to vote me is really weak. While if I said 3 scum, you would have tried to push a lynch on me for a number. I don't like that idea.

Vote: GIEFF

My vote for him is because I think he's more likely than the rest of you to be Scum.

Is there a reasoning behind it, or is it just gut.

[Zachrulez]

Jammer, your scumminess drops because you went along so easily with an assertion from Alexhans that there are 4 scum, and it's becoming quite apparent that 3 scum is likely based on how the distribution of roles would have to be to get the closest to balancing this game.

If anything I think it's an indication that you are town, because you went along with a game setup that likely isn't in play, nor did you quickly challenge Alexhans' assertion of 4 scum as a snap reflex. (Because if you were scum you would know he's wrong.)

I feel reasonably safe in calling you as town.

[Zachrulez]

Though your case on Gieff is pretty bad.

[Debonair Danny DiPietro]

I'm in the Sens/Zach camp that NK speculation offers no substantial benefit and several potential harms.

I came into this expecting 3 or 4 scum, and at this point could still see either. IMO we should just assume there are 4 because it's a possibility, even if it's less likely especially given the existence of the vanilla 2 vs. 10 setup.

...

I don't think jammer slipped up, especially given that there probably aren't 4 scum.

Cephrir expects three or four scum, says we should assume four scum because of that possibility. And then concludes by stating there probably aren't four scum. While these statements are completely contradictory they certainly don't look good to me.

Unvote; Vote: Cephrir

[GIEFF]

My vote for him is because I think he's more likely than the rest of you to be Scum.

You misquoted, jammer. Sensfan said this, not me.

If this game has 4 scum, I think you are very likely to be one of them, jammer. This has not changed. What did change was my opinion of the likelihood of there actually being 4 scum. Does that make sense?

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Mastin, are you still happy with your vote for BM? (I know I already asked this, but wanted to make sure it didn't slip through the cracks)

[Yaw]

Vote Count:

jammer (2): Kairyuu, SensFan
GIEFF (2): Zachrulez, jammer
VP Baltar (1): camn
Battle Mage (1): Mastin
broomhead (1): alexhans
Cephrir (1): Debonair Danny DiPietro

Not Voting: Battle Mage, Cephrir, VP Baltar, broomhead, SpyreX, Benmage, GIEFF

8 to lynch

Benmage's vote not counted, because I don't know who he's trying to vote for.

[Zachrulez]

Unvote:

Still not liking any of the Jammer votes. Gieff's doesn't stand out anymore though, and his position seems reasonable.

Post 6

and

Post 10

These posts establish an attempt by Mastin to both clear himself based on the nightkill and gather scum suspects based on the nightkill.

Like Sensfan pointed out not too far back in the game, what's up with all this nightkill speculation?

Control of the game based on the nightkill seems to be Mastin's motive, and I'm happy to put a vote on him. (I'm clear! But these people are scummy because they know Has!)

Vote: Mastin

[camn]

I played a game with GIEFF once.
We were scum together.

He was brilliant as scum.

We should probably lynch him before endgame... regardless of anything that may happen between then and now.

(how is THAT for saying something scummy?!!?)

[camn]

in fact...

unvote
Vote :GIEFF

Look at me .. 3rd vote on the wagon!
oops.. nope. 2nd vote. Darn.

[jammer]

If this game has 4 scum, I think you are very likely to be one of them, jammer. This has not changed. What did change was my opinion of the likelihood of there actually being 4 scum. Does that make sense?

You pull conclusions far to soon for my opinion. If the number of scums I called was 3 you where ready to vote me off without any though at all.
(and yes, sorry I messed up some quote tags)

@Zach, I'm surprised that makes you feel save in calling me town.
Would you have voted me if I stated that there where 3 mafia?

@camn, why ask specificly VP's opinion about hascow, earlier?

@Kairyuu, What do you think about the opposing of the meta N0 kill from SensFan. While he is suspected becouse of this by you and Mastin.(top-suspect)

[camn]

@camn, why ask specificly VP's opinion about hascow, earlier?

When I saw Hascow dead, I wondered about it.
I looked at his recent games. Especially an ongoing one. That is all I should say about that.

VP I have played with a couple times, and I respect him.
I think that he is the kind of player that, AS SCUM, given a night 0, he would choose to eliminate someone that he

thought

might be a detriment to the gameplay as a whole. Like a lurker, or someone who might replace out... or someone he thought was "mediocre".
He has that kind of integrity.

Now... I have unvoted him, but I still suspect him. His response is simply filed away in the camn-memory-system for later.
i agree we can't get too crazy on outguessing the scum.. especially N0 scumkills..... so I table VP for now.

[Zachrulez]

@Zach, I'm surprised that makes you feel save in calling me town.
Would you have voted me if I stated that there where 3 mafia?

Eh, I don't really subscribe to the theory that it's a strong scum slip, so no.

[Battle Mage]

Seriously, guys.

SHUT THE FUCK UP ABOUT THE KILL.

Its something the Scum have 100% control over, and I'm betting most/all of the Scum are now trying to use that to also control the Day phase.

QFT

QFAT. But it is Mastin who appears to be leading the charge, and i'm not sure that's his style.

Vote: Ben

Clearly a wannabe mage.

BM

[GIEFF]

camn, that is a LOT of assumptions on which to base a vote (which you said was NOT random):

1. VP Baltar would not kill the player he views to be the most pro-town.
2. VP Baltar does not view hascow as particularly pro-town.
3. VP Baltar, if scum, would have been the one to choose the scum-kill.

And you are still confident enough in these assumptions to leave the door open to return back to Baltar later. Is there something else going on, or did I accurately sum up your reasoning?

Vote Mastin

[camn]

Beats a Random vote, no?

And yes, I think those 3 conditions are not unreasonable... but replace "pro-town" with "pro-fun-game".

[Battle Mage]

Interesting choice. Has wouldn't be my choice with players I know;

I will look up which players have played with hasdgfas, as they are most likely scum.

When skimming, i didnt spot that Mastin came right out of the gate with this mindset. That is genuinely scummy (Albeit from a gutshot OMGUS perspective).

I'm not sure why you make the assumption that people who have played with Hasdgfas are more likely to kill him than people that haven't. You must rate his play pretty highly if you think that anyone that knew him would have killed him instantly.

I think if i'd chosen the kill, i'd have probably picked you. Simply because, as scum, i cba to trawl through a massive thread, when i dont need to find scum. Ofc, this is all a pointless convo, because there are multiple scum, and it's probable that the decision wasn't unanimous.

That said, whoever is scum, i do appreciate not being killed. Was looking forward to an old school game like this

'Til then, I'll do what I always do in the RVS:

why do you need to emphasise that you always do it? haha

Unvote, Vote: Mastin

BM

[Cephrir]

I don't get what's wrong with discussing the NK as long as we aren't ridiculously serious about it. I would never lynch based on something like that and I don't think anyone else will either, so why not talk about it? And it did a fine job getting this game off to a quick start.

@DDD: Fair enough, it's contradictory. But does that really matter?

[Battle Mage]

I've played with Hascow before and he was not a very active scum player... at least in that game. Maybe it was because the town had 80 % of lynchable material (Empking, Zwets, Dejkha, Wall-e and Hewitt). Anyway... If I had to kill... knowing there were no protections whatsoever... I would've killed... sensfan? Mastin? someone random that I don't know? Probably I wouldn't have had a voice in a scumteam....

Anyway... 16 playing... 25 % means 4 scum. 31.25 % is 5 scum... too much...
also... the n0 kill was unstoppable.. so we should count 15 playing... 33.33 % is unlikely

What I assume:
15 mislynch 14 L-8 (scum is 50 % of a lynching waggon)
14 kill 13
13 mislynch 12 L-7 (scum is 57 % of a lynching waggon)
12 kill 11
11 mislynch 10 L-6 (scum is 66.7 % of a lynching waggon)
10 kill 9
9 mislynch 8 L-5 (scum is 80 % of a lynching waggon)

we can basically mislynch 4 times (MAX). This is going to be one LONG game...



Players:
Battle Mage

SensFan (Is supposed to be good)
alexhans

GIEFF
Cephrir

VP Baltar
Debonair Danny DiPietro
Kairyuu
camn

broomhead
SpyreX

Zachrulez
Benmage
Mastin

jammer

Bolded I've either played with, or know by reputation.

this is funny...
I'm tempted to vote VP Baltar because he is always scum...
I'm tempted to vote Mastin for self voting...
I'm tempted to vote Kai to OMGUS...
I'm tempted to vote camn because she is voting her fianceé

vote: alexhans

Obvcult. Speedlynch GOGOGOGOGOGOGOGOGO!

*Alexhans recruits Kai...

New postPosted: Thu Jul 09, 2009 1:02 am (Yaw posted the first post of the game)
I'm researching who to vote...

well...

Vote broomhead

because he is probably hiding among unknown players.

Mastin posted again while I was writing this... and DDD too...

Smells....town. But i dont get the fixation with namedropping players you know. It ain't cool, and it ain't productive. Whoever did the italicising and underlining thing at least actually achieved something.

BM

[camn]

You must rate his play pretty highly if you think that anyone that knew him would have killed him instantly.

Not necessarily. It could be a revenge kill. It could be someone that HASCOW is particularly good at reading....

It could be a lot of things.