Open 88 - Polygamist Mafia (Game Over) before 650

[Goatrevolt]

Day 1, you have a 1/3 shot of hitting scum by randomly lynching.

Day 2, you have a 2/5 shot of hitting scum by randomly lynching.

It's actually 2/5 day 1, since you can take out your own group, since you know yourself and partner.

The chance is actually better than you say.

A random lynch to start off, at least, can help kick-start something, anyway.

You can't take yourself out, unless the random voting is actually more like "let's randomly lynch someone that isn't me," which sounds like quite a good plan for scum.

Random lynching is poor. Always.

What about when it gives you a 60% chance to win?

[Xtoxm]

Vote Count

Zoolander (2) kloud1516, Jahudo
Farside22 (0)
The Pope's Tiara (1) armlx
LlamaFluff (0)
Goatrevolt (1) Caboose
Jahudo (1) Zoolander
OpposedForce (0)
armlx (1) Farside22
Caboose (2) OpposedForce, Goatrevolt
3fj (1) The Pope's Tiara
kloud1516 (2) Jebus, 3fj
Jebus (1) LlamaFluff

Not Voting (0)

With 12 alive, it takes 7 votes to lynch.

[Jebus]

You can't take yourself out, unless the random voting is actually more like "let's randomly lynch someone that isn't me," which sounds like quite a good plan for scum.

It also increases your chances of hitting scum if you are townie.

Though you're probably right, since there is no way to prove one's own alignment in this game >.<

[Jahudo]

In my random-vote and claiming-order post I had missed that Zoolander was the one to ask Armix to claim. So 1A claims and asks 3A to claim.

It’s still been early but Pope and 3fj have been quiet.

Jebus has had a rough start. First misses the town benefits of random voting and the popcorn claiming, then suggests random lynching as pro-town but I can’t see how anyone wanting to play mafia would suggest this because it eliminates the “playing mafia” part of the game.

[OpposedForce]

So far I don't believe Zoo and Jahudo are scum group together. Yes I think scum will bus scum and all that but the interplay between them tells me no they are not scum group together. I notice at one point Zoo and Kloud had 3 votes.
OF I know you are in another Poly game didn't you know they were nighless?

Unforunately I didn't know that this game was nightless and I assumed that since the other game (cannot reference for it is ongoing) was a slightly differnt setup it wouldn't be nightless but it was. Looking back I can see why it's nightless because with the lover pairs and everything.

I'm agaisnt the idea of randomly lynching a person even when the assumed odds are 60% because there is always the 40% of mislynching and playing the game strategically and normally will help raise the odds of hitting scum due to cases and evidence. Also if we lynch a townie D1 and go into the next day we do have a better chance of hitting scum but we also have the chance of hitting townie and since it was just a random lynch last day then there isn't much to go on to lynch scum.

[armlx]

What about when it gives you a 60% chance to win?

What about the fact that as the uninformed majority, scum hunting gives the town more information with which to make good decisions about lynching and increases those odds?

I'd like to rephrase my comment though: When the majority is uninformed, random lynching is always bad. In an informed majority game (AITP), it is good as it gives less info to the uninformed minority.

[Jebus]

It's not as if the random lynch is without its benefits :/

@ Xotxm - thanks to computer troubles, I may not be able to get on for a while. Replace me please?

[armlx]

It's not as if the random lynch is without its benefits :/

Like what?

Strong FOS both people suggesting we don't scum hunt

BTW.

[Goatrevolt]

Strong FOS both people suggesting we don't scum hunt

BTW.

I assume this is directed at me. Where did I suggest we shouldn't scum hunt?

[Jahudo]

I think Jebus was the main one to suggest random voting now as opposed to scum hunting. Interesting he/she proposes it, defends it twice, defends a third time but gives in that "random lynch anyone but me" as factoring into the odds, and now asks to be replaced.

Jebus is opposed on this issue by multiple people but stands by the theory and that seems pro-town not being afraid to stick out of the fray and being called wrong. Then again, the timing of this replacement request is right after losing an argument vs. the group and getting FoS'ed. To me the defense under pressure outweighs the replacement timing and the fact that the random lynch was a bad idea.

[armlx]

I assume this is directed at me. Where did I suggest we shouldn't scum hunt?

I missed that your post was only in response to Jebus's proposal of the idea, and thought you propogated the idea. That makes things a lot simpler though, as only one player is guilty of the offense.

Vote Jebus

[kloud1516]

I think Jebus was the main one to suggest random voting now as opposed to scum hunting. Interesting he/she proposes it, defends it twice, defends a third time but gives in that "random lynch anyone but me" as factoring into the odds, and now asks to be replaced.

Jebus is opposed on this issue by multiple people but stands by the theory and that seems pro-town not being afraid to stick out of the fray and being called wrong.

Then again, the timing of this replacement request is right after losing an argument vs. the group and getting FoS'ed. To me the defense under pressure outweighs the replacement timing and the fact that the random lynch was a bad idea.

I do not agree with you here, Jahudo. Jebus suggested random lynching on page 3 (or page 2, I am not sure). This would provide the town with little to no information, and would force us into a lylo minus anything from Day 1 to go on. This is not pro-town imo, and continuing to defend the idea does not change this opinion. To me, the defense of a detrimental suggestion to the town continues to stand out. Anyone can defend a posistion, but that does not necessarily provide indication that they are town or not.

I can't help but also notice that this is the second time you have provided a defensive explanation of Jebus' actions, Jahudo, which is interesting.

[Caboose]

I think Jebus was the main one to suggest random voting now as opposed to scum hunting. Interesting he/she proposes it, defends it twice, defends a third time but gives in that "random lynch anyone but me" as factoring into the odds, and now asks to be replaced.

Jebus is opposed on this issue by multiple people but stands by the theory and that seems pro-town not being afraid to stick out of the fray and being called wrong.

Then again, the timing of this replacement request is right after losing an argument vs. the group and getting FoS'ed. To me the defense under pressure outweighs the replacement timing and the fact that the random lynch was a bad idea.

I do not agree with you here, Jahudo. Jebus suggested random lynching on page 3 (or page 2, I am not sure). This would provide the town with little to no information, and would force us into a lylo minus anything from Day 1 to go on. This is not pro-town imo, and continuing to defend the idea does not change this opinion. To me, the defense of a detrimental suggestion to the town continues to stand out. Anyone can defend a posistion, but that does not necessarily provide indication that they are town or not.

I can't help but also notice that this is the second time you have provided a defensive explanation of Jebus' actions, Jahudo, which is interesting.

^ I agree.

I don't think that a random lynch is a good idea here. Random lynching isn't really what mafia is about. Given the pros and cons that Goatrevolt gave us, I think that the cons definitely outweigh the pros.

As for the Jebus thing, I think that the behavior and the defense by Jahudo is suspicious, but not enough to warrant my vote yet.

[armlx]

As for the Jebus thing, I think that the behavior and the defense by Jahudo is suspicious, but not enough to warrant my vote yet.

Do you see anything else that could warrant a vote?

[Goatrevolt]

The random lynching plan isn't that great. In addition to the stuff I put on my cons list against it, there's also the idea that if we randomly lynch day 1 we may attempt to non-randomly lynch day 2, which could cause mayhem, and easily lower our chances of winning significantly. There are simply more reasons and more benefits to scum hunting and trying to actually find and eliminate scum that way.

I was pushing armlx a bit to get a reaction of out of him, but I think his response was fairly natural.

As for Jebus, he had no shame in suggesting the idea and pushing it, which definitely is sticking his neck out there more than scum are wont to do. On the flip side, though, is his scummy suggestion that we do the random lynch but

leave him and his lover out of it

which is extremely pro-scum if he is indeed scum. So I'm a bit torn here as I'm getting conflicting reads.

[Jahudo]

As for Jebus, he had no shame in suggesting the idea and pushing it, which definitely is sticking his neck out there more than scum are wont to do.

This is what I was getting at by saying Jebus was acting pro-town. His suggestion was anti-town to me but that doesn't mean one has to automatically change position if they're called out for a poor strategy. By putting his voice out there he was putting risk on himself and sticking his neck out as Goatrevolt says.

Also armix and others: Do you think a vote on Jebus is still a good direction now that it seems he's getting a replacement?

[armlx]

Also armix and others: Do you think a vote on Jebus is still a good direction now that it seems he's getting a replacement?

Yes. The fact he is being replaced does not change his action.

[armlx]

Just so you know,

I will be away from Thursday till Sunday

.

[Xtoxm]

Adel replaces Jebus.

3fj and The Pope's Tiara haven't posted for 5 days, so have recieved a prod.

[farside22]

Adel replaces Jebus.

3fj and The Pope's Tiara haven't posted for 5 days, so have recieved a prod.

Oh no's must run and hide from the big bad mean woman.
I'm a bit behind and will catch up with some thoughts on this game in a bit. Thanks

[farside22]

Jebus quick claims even though some people talked about doing things popcorn style. Now I remember one game where someone was quick to claim and that person was town. I don't know if it is scummy, but it is noticeable. Post 57 is an awful idea. The point is to find scum not hope to get lucky so how. 2 miss lynches and the town losses.
@Johudo: You say that it is interesting that both Jebus and Zoo chose to reveal their partners do you think it was scummy?
Llama post 54 just uses quotes and very little to confirm his vote on Jebus. Post 68 gives me bad vibes. I think what was stated on how people interacted even for random should be noted
Kloud has made the best post of all. Post 62 is very straight forward and I felt good points for him.
Goats: Analysis of random voting might be accurate (IDK), but I don't like it personally.

I get scummy vibes from Jebus and this whole random voting and Llama/Goat pair for different reasons.

Unvote:
Vote: Llama

[Goatrevolt]

What didn't you like, my actual analysis, or the idea of random voting?

[farside22]

What didn't you like, my actual analysis, or the idea of random voting?

I don't know if it is accurate. I don't like the idea of it at all. The fact that you are checking it is weird. I mean really you think random voting will work because why exactly?

[Adel]

y'all should not have massclaimed.

fos:

farside

[farside22]

y'all should not have massclaimed.

fos:

farside

I don't agree with the no mass claim and I never will. Sorry it just doesn't make sense to me for this game not to claim.
One day you will have to sit down and just explain clearly why it is bad because I don't see it.