Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

[Flavor Leaf]

Honestly putting this here for now gera's pretty fucking stinky this game VOTE: geraintm

Yeah, bus that buddy

[Flavor Leaf]

Geraint is obv scum, by the way. I almost wanted to switch yesterday, but Kyouko just gave a lot more elsewise.

[Flavor Leaf]

1935 is the most rehearsed post i have ever seen Geraint post

[Flavor Leaf]

And 1937 is a more obv bus than how Hu Tao busses

[Flavor Leaf]

If Gamma is town, it’s probably Hu Tao, but that’s the split I don’t think matters too much today. Gamma claim first is good

[Flavor Leaf]

Popcorn or claim order, Gamma?

[Flavor Leaf]

Pretty much I thought we were gonna lose today. But I was wrong. I think we have a good shot to win still. So in future games I shouldnt just give up like that

Oh, understandable...

Last day phase was pretty

It really wasn’t.

Day 2 was a great day

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE->Hu Tao->Purple->Dragon->FL

[Flavor Leaf]

You up, ScumPrincess.

[Flavor Leaf]

Just waiting for that JK scum claim.

[Flavor Leaf]

If Dragon is JK, and targeted me, they’re scum gambiting, no killing, by the way. I have a feeling it’s coming, i hope not, but yeah.

[Flavor Leaf]

If Dragon is JK, and targeted me, they’re scum gambiting, no killing, by the way. I have a feeling it’s coming, i hope not, but yeah.

I don’t fully believe that happened, and i should have probs waited, but i was thinking about this since yesterday, and think there’s reason to get this out before a potential claim.

[Flavor Leaf]

That’s a game winning gambit in a scumDragon scenario if that claim is believed.

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE->Hu Tao->Purple->Dragon->FL

Do you just know what I am so you left me off the claims list? =P

Geraint is obv scum, by the way. I almost wanted to switch yesterday, but Kyouko just gave a lot more elsewise.

No chance he's just a lurky town? I agree the "meant to post at end of day" post now is not particularly resonating with towniness, though I definitely vibe with watching Barbie and Dungeons and Dragons back to back

Nah, I thought he was scum yesterday, but stand by not going the lurker slots.

You claim right before Dragon.

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE->Hu Tao->Purple->Pavowski->Dragon->FL

[Flavor Leaf]

JK isn’t confirmable, though, in that regard, so I’m just being paranoid probably.

I genuinely do want to trust Dragon, but that would be such an untrustworthy move with no motives but faking self confirmation and protecting scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Pav - There IS a chance, he is lurky town, I’ll give it that. I don’t think it’s a high chance.

[Flavor Leaf]

JK isn’t confirmable, though, in that regard, so I’m just being paranoid probably.

I genuinely do want to trust Dragon, but that would be such an untrustworthy move with no motives but faking self confirmation and protecting scum.

Like this would have just made Kyouko’s death less worth, which doesn’t line up with their attitude of Kyouko if they’re coming from a town perspective.

The Vig shot was coming from a slot of knowing Kyouko was town, exactly where Dragon wanted me to be yesterday.

The big reason of the Kyouko fade was to line up a solid vig kill.

I just don’t see JK as confirmable at all.

But this is all stuff I was thinking about on Day 2.

[Flavor Leaf]

The No Deaths last night seems very fake in that regard as well, but I digress.

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t necessarily think it.

I’m probably more likely to shoot DE than Tao, don’t worry.

YESSSS

K if Flavor is shooting me I'm sheeping him on whoever he wants today

This was contrived. DE tried to make it out like I was shooting them, but all I said was I was more likely to shoot them than Hu Tao, but I had already said during the day that I wouldn’t be shooting Dragon based on their claim WIFOM, and I also said that I had chosen who I was going to Vig a long time before end of the day.

Kyouko wagon helped a lot.

[Flavor Leaf]

If anything, my posts were clearly stating I wouldn’t be shooting DE, and would more likely shoot Hu Tao.

I’ll hold where I shot for now, but yeah. I want to get through this mass claim.

[Flavor Leaf]

Actually, can we move Hu Tao after DragonEater in the claim order?

This shouldn’t be too big of a problem, DE trusts Hu Tao.

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE->Purple->Pavowski->Dragon->Hu Tao->FL

[Flavor Leaf]

Okay, nice.

Purple and Pav I think can claim any order

[Flavor Leaf]

Can I claim now. I might be busy later. But if you want me to wait for hpe I can

There’s just some limited reasonings for why I think it’s beneficial to have you last.

I can explain in more detail afterwards, but since Dragon trusts you anyways, I feel it should be okay.

[Flavor Leaf]

Dragon trusts Purple anyways.

I tend to post a lot when I’m at work, and i check out on my days off and fall behind.

[Flavor Leaf]

If DragonEater does end up being scum here, Hu Tao and Kyouko were the pockets probably.

It was probably meant to be me in that scenario, but that failed tremendously.

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE->Purple->Pavowski->Dragon->Hu Tao->FL

did gera claim?

Yeah, in their scum claim post they said “I’m nothing”

[Flavor Leaf]

cw357 - Vanilla
DragonEater70
Flavor Leaf - Vigilante
Gamma Emerald - Vanilla
geraintm - Vanilla
HighPrincessErinys - Vanilla
Hu Tao
Pavowski
Purplemango

[/quote]

[Flavor Leaf]

I need some popcorn

[Flavor Leaf]

hpe/gamma/geraint that is
all of them i sr so it tracks lol

This is very possible.

I still think there’s probs scum in DragonEater/Hu Tao, though, but I’m just placing some bear traps down.

[Flavor Leaf]

Pavowski

Purplemango
CW

Gamma Emerald
Hu Tao

DragonEater
HPE
Geraint

If Pavowski ends up being scum then…uh….i strategically placed them there so they won’t kill me

Top 3 tiers are different variations of town, i only have one scum tier when i generally have 3

[Flavor Leaf]

If we don't have anything from him or anybody saying otherwise in like 30 mins I'll go ahead then, would like to get it out there since this feels like one of those nights where you guys will go nuts and post 10 pages while I'm sleeping

Why didn't you claim?, You said something about 30 mins
Anyway, i claim cult leader

(Haters will say that the role dosen't exist in the game or that i'm vt, they would be wrong )

What does cult leader do?

[Flavor Leaf]

cw357 - Vanilla
DragonEater70
Flavor Leaf - Vigilante
Gamma Emerald - Vanilla
geraintm - Vanilla
HighPrincessErinys - Vanilla
Hu Tao
Pavowski - Vanilla
Purplemango

[Flavor Leaf]

If we don't have anything from him or anybody saying otherwise in like 30 mins I'll go ahead then, would like to get it out there since this feels like one of those nights where you guys will go nuts and post 10 pages while I'm sleeping

Why didn't you claim?, You said something about 30 mins
Anyway, i claim cult leader

(Haters will say that the role dosen't exist in the game or that i'm vt, they would be wrong )

I sorta lost my grasp on the normal flow of time, I thought I posted that like 10 minutes ago

Anyway surprise surprise, I'm a VT

Are you seriously claiming not VT Purple? I'm approaching the part of the night where I cannot detect tone

Shocking

No, but i want to be orginal

I think you hit that with the way you’re claiming.

So you are VT?

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, that would make sense.

Dragon is up.

[Flavor Leaf]

Kyouko’s team they were pushing on Day 1 was Lap, Dragon, and FL.

In a world where Dragon is town, that’s 3 incorrect pushes Kyouko had.

This alone makes Kyouko worth pushing to find out and see what happens and where the pressure was.

And yet, Dragon began defending the Kyouko slot harder, and I would say Dragon by the end of Day 2 was not a scum read potential for Kyouko.

Dragon also played in a way where it ‘looked’ like they were trying to defend Kyouko, but i consistently asked for more reasons other than meta, yet they try to complain about going there.
I had already specifically stated I wouldn’t be convinced by meta cases in that regard.

This is why I think Dragon’s manipulative there, and trying to shade and make it look like Kyouko was a bad push.

We’re in a GOOD spot right now, where we were going to take it as a win getting here and dealing with this in ELO.

Now we get an EXTRA day.

Amazing.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, it’s all good. I’m surprised we got through the mass claim that fast at all anyways.

[Flavor Leaf]

It’s also the weird panic reactions when I claimed vig.

Like it’s weird for scum to do, but i think they went into a weird zone, and then the trajectory of ‘how do we deal with this?’ came into play, and then they did the weird soft claim.

If they actively had a role that could confirm themselves WITH my vigilante, and their immediate reaction to it is to play it how they did, I don’t think that’s a genuine town play.

[Flavor Leaf]

And now Gamma is confirmed to have not been pushing elsewhere to save Kyouko in that sense.

I don’t see why Gamma plays the way they do if scum on their replace in.

[Flavor Leaf]

my motivation for this game is back

you had motivation for it at all?

Imo, cw has done more this game than HPE on a giving us their thoughts level.

[Flavor Leaf]

Cool.

Dragon scum claims today.

That’s what I was hoping for.

I tried shooting HPE.

[Flavor Leaf]

Kyouko’s team they were pushing on Day 1 was Lap, Dragon, and FL.

In a world where Dragon is town, that’s 3 incorrect pushes Kyouko had.

This alone makes Kyouko worth pushing to find out and see what happens and where the pressure was.

And yet, Dragon began defending the Kyouko slot harder, and I would say Dragon by the end of Day 2 was not a scum read potential for Kyouko.

Dragon also played in a way where it ‘looked’ like they were trying to defend Kyouko, but i consistently asked for more reasons other than meta, yet they try to complain about going there.
I had already specifically stated I wouldn’t be convinced by meta cases in that regard.

This is why I think Dragon’s manipulative there, and trying to shade and make it look like Kyouko was a bad push.

We’re in a GOOD spot right now, where we were going to take it as a win getting here and dealing with this in ELO.

Now we get an EXTRA day.

Amazing.

Also I am sorry I am not very good at towncasing people.

To me saying "x is MILES out of their scum range" (what I said about Kyo) is a pretty solid towncase. I could probably have tried to do (a bit) more but I was kinda depressed that day due to real life things, so yeah.

I don’t do purely meta half because people don’t use it right and too limited, half on principle.

Dragon spent the first half of this game sheeping and town pushing me to a fault, and then the second I get a legitimate confirmed claim and become confirmed town, they actively start to counter and fight against.

And their doom and gloom outlook of this day phase is absolutely poor, and frankly, there was zero reason to try and let me live after that day phase.

This game needed flips.

[Flavor Leaf]

I’m not moving my vote today.

JK was also the exact scum role that the scum team take to balance this game, and frankly, I don’t buy a Town JK and a Scum Roleblocker in this game.

Fade scum A day 1

Cop targets scum B Night 1

Vigilante kills scum C night 1.

And then you try to add Jailkeeper into that as well on town?

[Flavor Leaf]

I was trying to die. Me dying would have been great.

I’m in the dreaded IC slot, and I was actively shooting with the knowledge Kyouko was town.

Kyouko, who if you are town, was pushing 3 incorrect reads, and thus isn’t reliable to have vote + had ties to everyone based on how they reacted.

Just a really poor night action.

[Flavor Leaf]

I’m overselling it, I think it’s a good night action gambit claim.

It just doesn’t line up with an actual town objective.

But it did give an extra day here, but like a scumDragon gets conf town from it, that doesn’t really matter.

Idk.

I don’t think you can live this game through, personally, even if you end up being town.

[Flavor Leaf]

You also gave us another day to do so, how nice of you

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor this is genuinely your worst town play this year by far. You keep pushing town for bullshit reasons. Yes, I COULD be scum gambitting. But why can't I just be town who did this? There's 0 reason I can't be.

You also have a tendency to look at things at surface level.

[Flavor Leaf]

Gamma’s probs not scum even if you’re town.

[Flavor Leaf]

You are saying I should have prevented Kyo's lim and that I fake defended her. There's a freaking limit to how much I can achieve when the conftown, who also happens to be Flavor freaking Leaf, is working against me. You KNOW there's no way to stop the lims you want to haloen from happening, when you really want them to happen.

There’s plenty of ways.

Main one is giving me reasons.

I flip flop very easily imo

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor this is genuinely your worst town play this year by far. You keep pushing town for bullshit reasons. Yes, I COULD be scum gambitting. But why can't I just be town who did this? There's 0 reason I can't be.

You also have a tendency to look at things at surface level.

And?

You’re tunnel visioned right now

[Flavor Leaf]

Scum is HPE/Geraint + 1 of Hu Tao/DE like most times here.

[Flavor Leaf]

You are saying I should have prevented Kyo's lim and that I fake defended her. There's a freaking limit to how much I can achieve when the conftown, who also happens to be Flavor freaking Leaf, is working against me. You KNOW there's no way to stop the lims you want to haloen from happening, when you really want them to happen.

There’s plenty of ways.

Main one is giving me reasons.

I flip flop very easily imo

You do. Right now you flopped onto me because I trueclaimed after you literally had the same solve as me a minite ago. Doesn't help me.

Regarding giving you reasons, I did not have the ability to go through the game and find reasons Kyo was town. I am sorry that I didn't say "hey guys I'm not going to be here full blast today so please don't lim Kyo until I have more time", but I did not expect a lim to be pushed through 4 days before deadline.

Then don’t be upset about Kyouko. That simple tbh

[Flavor Leaf]

If anything it was super beneficial because it brought this day phase.

Hu Tao your claims time

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor this is genuinely your worst town play this year by far. You keep pushing town for bullshit reasons. Yes, I COULD be scum gambitting. But why can't I just be town who did this? There's 0 reason I can't be.

You also have a tendency to look at things at surface level.

And?

You’re tunnel visioned right now

I am not tunneled

If anything I'm defensive

Not your typical tunnel vision type of thing.

You don’t look around just directly forward type

[Flavor Leaf]

Scum is HPE/Geraint + 1 of Hu Tao/DE like most times here.

Nope.

You know I say things I don’t mean in day chat to see where people go a lot right?

I’m a heavy reaction test player

[Flavor Leaf]

Hate to say it, though, Purple does have some scum equity.

[Flavor Leaf]

A role blocker and a BP probably fill out the scum team

[Flavor Leaf]

Imo the fade today is a foregone conclusion, and they know it too.

No point in rushing, we got a full day to talk

[Flavor Leaf]

Don’t fall for the trap if you see me set it up yo

[Flavor Leaf]

You think that scum team ain’t trembling right now?

[Flavor Leaf]

You think that scum team ain’t trembling right now?

No idea what scum are thinking. I'm just baffled how for someone who previously has just got me when I'm town thinks I am scum in this game?

I am actually starting to lean town on you.

[Flavor Leaf]

Imagine HPE, Pavowski, and CW as Team Rocket this game….

I don’t think i need to tell you who’s who.

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE laying it on thick like that while trying to push Geraint the way they are almost looks like intentional connecting between Geraint slot.

[Flavor Leaf]

Imagine HPE, Pavowski, and CW as Team Rocket this game….

I don’t think i need to tell you who’s who.

Your head is so far up your own ass your eyes are sticking out your nose atp
HPE and cw are not scum together EVER

Never said they were

I said imagine

Yall so aggressive

[Flavor Leaf]

So here’s my conclusion

When i claimed my confirmed Vig shot, I became a scary IC. This made every slot have to fear for the vig shot and not able to push me.

It then became a game of town trying to get me to town read them and scum trying to prevent that.

So I’m gonna side with team Dragon Eater/Hu Tao because they tried harder to get me on the same page with them, and every single day phase at one point, i started the day early town reading the two of them.

+

I already went through my possibilities with them, and i have no more effort to fight for that, and they’ll just win with higher effort if they are scum.

So yeah, Hu Tao/Dragon/FL town core.

[Flavor Leaf]

I had one read that ended being wrong, and I did it to get certain on the flip there.

It’s the IC gameplay, is what it is. Gotta take some L’s to figure things out.

Imo, HPE’s over exaggerating to make it look like I have poor reads, but on flips alone, i had Lap correct too.

If anything, Kyouko had the worst reads this game prior to the end, and thus died for it.

And end of the day, took 6 people to vote so 5 other slots.

[Flavor Leaf]

So here’s my conclusion

When i claimed my confirmed Vig shot, I became a scary IC. This made every slot have to fear for the vig shot and not able to push me.

It then became a game of town trying to get me to town read them and scum trying to prevent that.

That maybe explains why day 2 felt so interminable, lotta eggshell walking

I still don't see the Hu Tao town read, but to be 100% honest, I kinda sorta tuned out the back end of d2 and was hoping for some NK analysis. I probably need to read back a bit but good gravy that's a lot of reading. Probably rather look back at the wagons, esp d2

And ... you're TRing Dragon again. Jesus Christ you give me whiplash sometimes dude

Eh, i was town reading dragon before. Was hoping someone would hop on.

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t think town whines about it quite like that though. Feels like you’re more invested in knowing where FL stands than you perhaps should be. I get him being vig is a Big Deal but I can tell you I haven’t let his presence become as groundbreaking as it seems to be for you.

Scum chose to play it that way so they can make me a fall guy on the misfade.

Kyouko wagon ends up being a complete trap, and this game gets near solved on a single scum flip.

Scum are more likely to have a bad attitude right now imo

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE has also had the worst reads this game, and sheeped into both wagons. Actively helped push Lap too, when Lap was obv town.

[Flavor Leaf]

It’s also pretty clear that HPE more worried about discrediting than looking for scum here.

[Flavor Leaf]

It’s also pretty clear that HPE more worried about discrediting than looking for scum here.

This one is absolutely calling you out for the shit reads all game here regardless of alignment lol.

Like which ones specifically?

[Flavor Leaf]

Cuz you’re pushing that narrative, but end of the day, my read accuracy is higher than yours at the present.

Which means you’re tonally unaware and not considering yourself in regards to the reads and purely here for discrediting tactics.

[Flavor Leaf]

It’s also pretty clear that HPE more worried about discrediting than looking for scum here.

This one is absolutely calling you out for the shit reads all game here regardless of alignment lol.

Like which ones specifically?

I don’t believe you can answer this.

[Flavor Leaf]

To be fair, you assume i would be playing this way in a non Vigilante confirmed spot, so no, you wouldn’t.

I also probably wouldn’t have pounded through Kyouko in that scenario.

And I would argue that it’s a BETTER quality to have as Vigilante, as I have probably one of the best vigilante records on site, and while I didn’t hit scum with a vig directly this game, I think it’s headed towards a good spot.

You also feel more like scum who is afraid of me flipping correctly rather than town hoping i town read you.

You also didn’t answer the question.

Because none of those reads have been proven to be incorrect, so frankly, you’re saying a lot of nothing hoping it looks alright.

[Flavor Leaf]

I bit off more than I could chew when I voted Pav but I would bet the game on his scum flip rn

Yeah, it’s possible.

HPE and Pav look pretty partnered in a lot of scenarios.

I don’t believe CW is the other scum in that scenario, though.

[Flavor Leaf]

my read accuracy is higher than yours at the present.

By virtue of repeatedly asserting that Lap was obvtown after hammering them. Very accurate, indeed.

I said it beforehand too

[Flavor Leaf]

But good to know facts and timeline don’t concern you

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE using a lot of unconfirmed reaction test reads to try and bush bad reads and ignoring the fact they actively pushed both of the misfades as scum

Remember, Lap wagon gained momentum in counter to an HPE wagon Day 1 too.

And Kyouko ended up scum reading HPE, and Kyouko flipped town.

[Flavor Leaf]

my read accuracy is higher than yours at the present.

By virtue of repeatedly asserting that Lap was obvtown after hammering them. Very accurate, indeed.

I said it beforehand too

did hammering Lap actually help you catch scum at all?
I think you are treating PRs as some golden calf, and that is leading you to killing slots you townread because “oops can’t risk voting out a PR!”

If HPE ends up being scum, then yes. 100%.

[Flavor Leaf]

And if one is to believe Dragon is town, then it should be believed that I was targeted for a Night Kill as fact, which means scum didn’t think my reads were bad enough to keep alive and risk me shooting townies.

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE using a lot of unconfirmed reaction test reads to try and bush bad reads and ignoring the fact they actively pushed both of the misfades as scum

Remember, Lap wagon gained momentum in counter to an HPE wagon Day 1 too.

And Kyouko ended up scum reading HPE, and Kyouko flipped town.

I hate that it’s in this position because I made this call in BTXVII and it was wrong
Can you point out anything I’m overlooking that’s different between this and that?

What happened there?

Idk. This is pretty standard “everyone push against FL reads being chaotic and wild as bad!” Which generally means I’m settling in on the right track.

This happens almost every time i get conf town.

And then i generally win thereafter

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE using a lot of unconfirmed reaction test reads to try and bush bad reads and ignoring the fact they actively pushed both of the misfades as scum

Remember, Lap wagon gained momentum in counter to an HPE wagon Day 1 too.

And Kyouko ended up scum reading HPE, and Kyouko flipped town.

I hate that it’s in this position because I made this call in BTXVII and it was wrong
Can you point out anything I’m overlooking that’s different between this and that?

What happened there?

Idk. This is pretty standard “everyone push against FL reads being chaotic and wild as bad!” Which generally means I’m settling in on the right track.

This happens almost every time i get conf town.

And then i generally win thereafter

aint you the guy who wasnt interested in meta defense on kyouko

Sure, but I’m not using it to read me, I’m using it on my own reasoning to read, which I have actively stated is fine, i told Dragon earlier that’s good for getting your read, but need more to convince others of it.

So if you need help reading me as town, I’ll be sure to give you more reasons

[Flavor Leaf]

I saw that HPE had been the wagon before the day’s lim on days 1 and 2 and drove the vote onto it in part to resolve that concern, it wasn’t that strong an SR I just needed to clear the fog

It’s just funny, how every read I’ve had, except they scum read and was the wagon before Lap.
So they trying to shade my hammering of Lap for it, which is fine.

Not everyone gets the maFilosophy behind it, even though i feel I’ve shown on multiple occasions why it’s not as bad as a lot of people have tried to make it out to be.

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, I’ll Vig Geraint tonight

[Flavor Leaf]

Kyouko flip just helped so much on adding to the VCA. By wagonomics, HPE and Geraint both look pretty rough on Lap, and HPE on Kyouko.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Pav - I don’t see the Gamma/HPE split and why it couldn’t be both

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE, Pavowski, Gamma is possible.

I'm not really feeling CW as scum here, but im also in the situation of 'i tried to hard fade them early game, spent so much time Day 2 pushing them' that if they end up being scum, i get a 'well, dont mean to say i told you so, but we should have killed them Day 1 like i wanted.'

[Flavor Leaf]

ngl, geraint's been making town pings for me. whether they're doing anything or not, they're being genuine with what they're saying, and i believe that they believe what they're saying. So I think it's possible Geraint is town here

HPE chose Geraint slot, and frankly, it looks like a bus, but i think that could be on purpose in an HPE scum/Geraint town world. HPE knows they're going out today, like you can kind of feel it from that one, they have to be setting up.

Gamma and Pav both looking to setup split wagons/options that seem nice.

Hu Tao is getting pushed as mysterious, but Hu Tao's done a lot this game action wise. I've just landed on town. If Hu Tao ends up being scum, I get to just blame Dragon, so easy easy now.

[Flavor Leaf]

nah it wouldnt just be you either, i dont think it's hu tao. i dont think it's CW or Geraint right now either.

Purple has some scum equity now, unfortunately, so I think full scum team is in HPE, Pav, Gamma, Purple.

[Flavor Leaf]

i feel like it's pretty obvious where my head is at here

[Flavor Leaf]

purple just has done some weird things that feel like stalling/potential scum objective, like the dragon soft push, but they havent voted, so they're not throwing their weight around that way, so idk.

[Flavor Leaf]

For what it’s worth, I read Pav as town too, just i see the possible for my misreading there.


Good thing is, don’t gotta solve it right now.

[Flavor Leaf]

its played with atleast 4 of your various accounts atp so

Okay so turns out we've played in Fire and Ice and I guess we were both town. I just did a really good job of erasing that game from my memory (I think a lot of us did).

Has anyone in here played with me as scum btw?
Can people.recall what I am.like.as scum?

Nope. As far as I'm able to tell, you've never even rolled scum.

It's been a while. I am massively panicky as scum, joining wagons for terrible reasons. I am really obvious as scum

Link to scumgame?

viewtopic.php?t=90580&sid=fcb1259bf2a0c ... 0f362c1e02
2294

viewtopic.php?p=13684191#p13684191

Both games ya pushed the “wanting to get day 1 over quickly” play

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: HPE

Farewell

[Flavor Leaf]

Farewell

this ones 3/5 tho ?

Frankly, I wasn’t saying goodbye to you.

And you’re 3/5 sure, but you see this day phase going any other way + got the momentum of us basically locked in now

[Flavor Leaf]

im conf town

[Flavor Leaf]

Is Gera openwolfing or does he normally not care about the game as town?

i think its more likely it's coming from town if genuine.

[Flavor Leaf]

its on yall to solve for Hu Tao/Dragon if ya think one could be scum. I'm coasting til I am night killed now. Dreaded IC spot, I gave cases on every slot, both town cases + scum cases.

So I technically have cased every single scum this game correctly at one point or another.

conclusions will be the remaining town's job. my job is done.

[Flavor Leaf]

How did HPE react to the D1 wagon?

countered to joining Lap. idk the exact time of events, though, but HPE was 4th on Lap wagon, and it started in counter to HPE wagon building.

[Flavor Leaf]

im conf town

Yes I know, I meant to write that as if I didn't know your claim you would be top of my list

why

doesnt make sense either

when im scum i hardcore abuse vca, and wouldnt be on both wagons like that very often.

[Flavor Leaf]

Thr sense of inevitably that some people have about this elimination....makes me not like it.

it's called a town block. (could be infiltrated, yeah)

we can almost single handedly hold the game up unless all other players came together to try to vote elsewhere, but i dont see that work being put in to dissipate the dissonance.

but end of the day, no matter the outcome of this game, i have cased every player as scum already, and gone through it all, so im leaving conclusions up to the people who decide to try the hardest.

DragonEater is most likely town here based on the JK forcing another day phase, and that's high high risk as scum that I just dont see happening. And if it did, good on Dragon, I called em out on it, that's good enough for me. Sticking to Occam's Razor going forward.

And Dragon town reads Hu Tao, I'm not scum reading Hu Tao, and can see this as town, but dont have the energy to fight against a possible pocketing that I will not be here probably for the conclusion of.

[Flavor Leaf]

I might be leaning HPE, Purple, Geraint right now.

There is obviously a scum or 2 in HPE/Pav/Gamma, but I could see Pav and Gamma being town here in this scenario. Pav will look bad regardless of HPE flip, though, so idk.

In regards to CW, I spent half this game trying to get them faded.

It's on y'all if they're scum now, cuz im probably never voting there. shoulda just killed them day 1 lol

[Flavor Leaf]

I might be leaning HPE, Purple, Geraint right now.

There is obviously a scum or 2 in HPE/Pav/Gamma, but I could see Pav and Gamma being town here in this scenario. Pav will look bad regardless of HPE flip, though, so idk.

In regards to CW, I spent half this game trying to get them faded.

It's on y'all if they're scum now, cuz im probably never voting there. shoulda just killed them day 1 lol

It ain’t fucking on me if cw is scum, I actually wanted that D2 and you railroaded it onto kyouko

you werent here when I was hard pushing them the entire game, why would i ever have been talking about you?


i had already felt that way when you replaced in

[Flavor Leaf]

How did HPE react to the D1 wagon?

countered to joining Lap. idk the exact time of events, though, but HPE was 4th on Lap wagon, and it started in counter to HPE wagon building.

In... counter to my wagon? Really now? Is this one reading you right?

k, this is not new. this was talked about on Day 1 and Day 2.

[Flavor Leaf]

How did HPE react to the D1 wagon?

countered to joining Lap. idk the exact time of events, though, but HPE was 4th on Lap wagon, and it started in counter to HPE wagon building.

In... counter to my wagon? Really now? Is this one reading you right?

k, this is not new. this was talked about on Day 1 and Day 2.

cant believe it took me this long to check and see that this is just literally wrong lmao where are you getting a lap wagon in counter to an HPE wagon from? again, is this one reading your post right even??

@Dragon -

[Flavor Leaf]

I won't steal it

However, I'll use this pagebottom to say I'm fine with a Pav/Flavor/Dragon town core for now

And I'm also going to revote HPE

VOTE: HPE

Lemme check myself before taking someone this one is wary of at face value

Okay checks out thank you :salute:
VOTE: Laplacian

Looks like you're just voting them since you're getting heat too.

VOTE: HPE

All roads always lead back to this VOTE: HPE

what's the HPE case? I reread ISO, and I dont necessarily feel it.

44 pinged me, can't say more than that

53 is weird to me because why does it care that thomith is "jumping the gun" in RVS? You kinda have to force scumreads in RVS if you ever wanna get out of it. I don't feel HPE's reaction is the natural town reaction.

240 presents something that is either NAI or towny (change in the way Lap looks at Pav,

after a reread, mind you

) as scummy to justify a vote, and it's also over-explainy in my opinion.

okay, this is solid enough for me. them mentioning Abnegation that way is interesting too, because it happened one way or another. I think if Lap town, one of HPE or Abneg are scum here.

VOTE: HPE

[Flavor Leaf]

oddly enough, it was the 3 of us then too, when Lap had a wagon of Kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HPE. Geraint would join right after.

[Flavor Leaf]

I won't steal it

However, I'll use this pagebottom to say I'm fine with a Pav/Flavor/Dragon town core for now

And I'm also going to revote HPE

VOTE: HPE

snoreeee mimimimimi. includes self in the towncore too...

What's Laplacian at in terms of elim exactly?

HPE even commented to a post on the start of it trying to discredit the town core.

[Flavor Leaf]

Lemme check myself before taking someone this one is wary of at face value

Okay checks out thank you :salute:
VOTE: Laplacian

Looks like you're just voting them since you're getting heat too.

VOTE: HPE

Might be because I don't see the reason for the Lap scumread though

this feeling makes a lot of sense.

And HPE and Lap had posts towards each other that really indicate HPE as scum.

Kyouko also ended up with the mentality that HPE was scum, and when they started pushing there THAT is when they were finally able to be misfaded.

That was a major purpose of the Kyouko wagon. I spent a long time trying to push there, but they didnt get over that line until they started to push HPE.

I had planned to Vig HPE super early into Day 2, far before Gamma replaced in, before I even started pushing Kyouko.

[Flavor Leaf]

because lap was already well under way by the time this one was a wagon lmao

keep on discrediting. only play ya got now.

[Flavor Leaf]

Lemme check myself before taking someone this one is wary of at face value

Okay checks out thank you :salute:
VOTE: Laplacian

Looks like you're just voting them since you're getting heat too.

VOTE: HPE

this post is actually key, because it shows you 100% had heat building on you, and other players felt that too.

[Flavor Leaf]

i feel enough was said as is.

[Flavor Leaf]

another tell is you get aggro when you get some pressure. I noticed that Day 2 when I started pushing you, so I started to town read to make it seem less likely I was gonna vig you.

[Flavor Leaf]

Lemme check myself before taking someone this one is wary of at face value

Okay checks out thank you :salute:
VOTE: Laplacian

Looks like you're just voting them since you're getting heat too.

VOTE: HPE

this post is actually key, because it shows you 100% had heat building on you, and other players felt that too.

ht made this post when this one had. one (1) vote on it. You DIRELY need to get real here.

it's not all about the votes.

[Flavor Leaf]

if you wanna get hung up on semantics of wagon, by all means.

Speak your truth.

[Flavor Leaf]

[Flavor Leaf]

so who's scum other than Geraint, and why?

I don't care at all about you trying to discredit, id rather see where your reads are.

[Flavor Leaf]

if you want to be saved, find the scum team. make cases. do the work.

you're just sitting and pouting hoping you can aggro defend yourself here.

ive been checked out since mid day 2.

if you give compelling reasons for where scum is, im completely open to listening, ive made cases on every single slot for both alignments.

[Flavor Leaf]

you aggro shading me does nothing for me personally. we got an extra day, and if my reads are poor, i can live until tomorrow, so that's not too bad of a deal for me, and then i can reset.

but yeah, make some scum cases, put in some work.

your entire play this game has been self centered feeling, and only do things when there's heat on you, which isnt a great sign.

[Flavor Leaf]

you a discrediting machine

[Flavor Leaf]

im just here dancin and vibin with whoever else tryin to dance and vibe, and that makes people unhappy when they see the people on the dance floor having fun, but ya can be on the dance floor too if ya can show you arent trying to drag us down

[Flavor Leaf]

first off you're kinda one to talk about discrediting rn, second off:

yeah, but im conf town, i can do what i want.

idc on a personal level what you do, it's strictly game time when im here in the arena.

you discrediting spam makes us what to fade you more.

that's not happening with me.

that's the difference.

[Flavor Leaf]

You keep presenting CW as a do nothing slot, but CW's done a hell of a lot tbh, and i think, and Hu Tao agreed, that CW has given more analysis than you have, so idk why you keep grouping CW in there.

[Flavor Leaf]

UNVOTE: HPE

I think you need to get more reads HPE. At the expense of spending some time rereading the game.

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: HPE

Alright. see ya in the dead thread.

let's go next.

[Flavor Leaf]

But there is a chance that hpe is indeed town
Then it will be annoying

Anyway

VOTE: HPE

Yeah this probably scum if HPE is town

[Flavor Leaf]

lol, I got jailed again.

Good 2-shot fake claim

[Flavor Leaf]

Ha ha ha we're in hell

Interesting that this is your takeaway after 2 nights of no kills and a scum flip yesterday.

[Flavor Leaf]

Not if we just hit scum

I do think Purple is probably scum here.

Normally, lurker townies get townier by posting more late game, Geraint kinda did, but that could have been a ploy.

But purple got way scummier yesterday, and that might be new scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE targeting Geraint yesterday at first looked like a hard bus, but as the day went on, it started to look like HPE trying to make it look like a hard bus, and associate Geraint and HPE further.

That being said, HPE + Geraint were the two votes to add fuel to the fire of Lap Day 1, and Geraint sheeped HPE.

[Flavor Leaf]

Let’s take some time, and have another layered day.

[Flavor Leaf]

Dragon, if scum, had a way easier win path than this, so if they’re scum, they’re doing the most, and I’m not in a space in life right now to effort as much as I’d like. Could change one evening i get bored, but who knows

Plus, I called the gambit out if so, and that’s some type of win for me if DE is scum.

It just feels super ridiculous to no kill like this if DE is scum.

That being said, if we keep going, and this game gets to like final 3, and DE gets a ‘stopped kill’, i think you gotta think it over again, but willing to not think about that for now.

DE scum would keep me alive to try and use me to push things through, but I don’t know.

Hu Tao also had potential bus energy on HPE, wanna reconfirm that again this day phase by having another layer of talk that way.

Pavowski looks pretty bad right now, but it almost feels like too much? Idk.

CW should get in this day phase. Interested in what they have to say.

[Flavor Leaf]

HPE said they would not be scum with CW. Well, what if they were unhappy scum with a partner in CW? Is this a possibility? I tend to want to believe HPE was genuine, but that one was scum, and it’s a slippery slope taking scum’s word like that. If they were partners, i could imagine them being unhappy.

I think I lean CW town, though.

Purple is probably scum with one of Pav or Gamma.

[Flavor Leaf]

Ha ha ha we're in hell

Interesting that this is your takeaway after 2 nights of no kills and a scum flip yesterday.

I know you're eager for reasons to scum read me but I spent the last two days thinking "wouldn't it be hilarious if there were no NK again" and it happened, I'm cracking up over here

I lowkey hoped you'd vig me, this game is wearing me out

ok so... in addition to Flavor, Dragon is basically conftown now right?

I’m more eager to find reasons to town read you, because I think while it makes a lot of sense for you to be scum here, i don’t really feel like you are, but i might not trust that here.

So i am looking for reasons you could be town more than reasons you could be scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

Not interested in Gera today.

I think a decent chance they are town, and HPE wanted Gera out today.

[Flavor Leaf]

I'll be damned, I just caught a strong town vibe off HT

I got the opposite

[Flavor Leaf]

I really don’t see it as Pav tbh

[Flavor Leaf]

I think rest of scum team is in Hu Tao, Purple, Gamma.

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t see a world where scum doesn’t bus HPE yesterday.

[Flavor Leaf]

So at least 1 scum on HPE, but i really do think 2 is likely.

[Flavor Leaf]

If it's 2 do you think Purple is more or less likely scum as the hammer?

I kinda don't think Purple just makes the decision to hammer that on his own, I could imagine HPE in the scum thread saying "just hammer me"

Yeah, I think Purple is almost always scum here.

Looking at the gamestate, I think it’s likely Dragon got pocketed (might have put themselves in the pocket of Purple, which I get), and I might be leaning Hu Tao over Gamma, but I could be wrong on that. I feel it’s likely Gamma/Purple or Hu Tao/Purple.

Geraint has a small chance still, but I think HPE laid it on way too thick yesterday, and I got hints of the Geraint town I knew yesterday.

[Flavor Leaf]

The thing with Hu Tao is they don’t really stand for much this game, and kind of shadow coasting behind Dragon, and when Hu Tao is town, they don’t hide behind a townie. They might shadow coast as town, but it isn’t behind a townie, they’re just there.

This is a really strong case imo.

[Flavor Leaf]

It also lines up with my one in Pav/HPE, one in DE/Hu Tao gamestate read from Day 2.

Damn, Kyouko fade just keeps showing it’s worth more and more.

Imma count HPE as a successful vig since I did shoot there that night. Y’all can deal.

[Flavor Leaf]

Who did you try to shoot last night?

Wouldn’t you like Tao know

[Flavor Leaf]

We all know who you shot at

[Flavor Leaf]

Case?

[Flavor Leaf]

His reasonings yesterday I kind of liked, and felt like genuine town Geraint. Like the post he made when i said I’d vig them (i didn’t) and they said “well i don’t want you to”

And Day 2 did happen during holidays, which they seem to had festivities of sorts going, like when they said “11pm on Christmas Eve, you lucky i posted at all”

Was super genuine.

I just don’t think Geraint been pushing an objective this game, and when they started posting more. Idk. I just don’t see HPE and Geraint aligned after both of their play yesterday.

I believe Geraint is the fade that scum wanted after HPE went down, which gives more reason for Hu Tao scum imo

[Flavor Leaf]

Let me sit for a bit, Gamma.

If you’re town, you and I have to link up more I think.

Is there a way Dragon is scum here and blocking me to specifically stop me from shooting scum/and no killing to help solidify their standing, or are they just town actually protecting kills?

[Flavor Leaf]

It’s more of a ‘at least I caught that’ consolation, i still would like to catch Dragon as scum, if scum.

I don’t see a world where one of Hu Tao or Dragon isn’t scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

VOTE: Purple

Hu Tao beautiful voice won me over.

I'm looking to elicit reactions.

[Flavor Leaf]

i would prefer not Pav today.

[Flavor Leaf]

if you think they're scum, look for the 3rd one please.

[Flavor Leaf]

to get Pav, if Pav is scum, and without me on it, you'll need all 5 townies to come together and get on it. A scum could bus and change that, but yeah.

I dont plan to vote Pav today without more concrete cases.

My gut has been good this game, dont really wanna switch on that quite yet.

[Flavor Leaf]

personally, i have felt more confident with dragon/pav/fl trio than dragon/hutao/fl trio

[Flavor Leaf]

best pav case imo

[Flavor Leaf]

Thing is, I can see Vig + Cop vs JK

Vig + Cop + JK has the potential to win N1, which i don’t love.

[Flavor Leaf]

But why are you still alive in that case? Seems like a hell of a gambit, vs killing off a conftown slot

I agree, and that goes in the favor of DE. However, it does get DE a lot of town cred.

And the fact that almost nobody else seems too open to the idea means scum isn't on board with it.

I can see reasons why scum outside of DE wouldnt want to try and push there, especially if the team is like Purple-Hu Tao, which is another reason that team is what leans for me.

DE, if scum, has Hu Tao and probably Purple pocketed, and has been playing the angle with me all game, which I think is crucial.

JK'ing me also feels like self survival, either for themselves, or their teammate.

I really dont know how much I liked they saved HPE Night 2 with it.

[Flavor Leaf]

they could just be town, but i think it's worth looking over.

Hu Tao hasn't really double looked over any slot, and has been content shadow coasting, and I think the town read on Hu Tao by Dragon is too much.

[Flavor Leaf]

and like, scum shooting me over Dragon, if town, means scum are more afraid of me and my vig than DE.

This means Scum would have had to shoot at me two nights in a row.

So I really do think there's a lot of merit in Dragon gambiting here. Something just feels off about their entire play this game.

[Flavor Leaf]

i dont think im thinking that it's more likely than not at this point, but im gonna do some stuff to look into it more on every slot. let's play this day out.

[Flavor Leaf]

UNVOTE:

Dragon begs Flavor to vote HPE with him

Flavor does

Dragon unvotes HPE

This game is neat

this also sticks out a lot to me in combination with HPE being so confused as to thinking there was pressure on that one. It's possible it wasnt felt because Dragon was fake voting.

[Flavor Leaf]

This whole line makes me feel a lot better about Hu Tao, and a lot worse about Dragon.

I would like anyone this game to explain Dragon's read on Hu Tao, or Hu Tao's read on Dragon in a way where it's not Town or Scum, other than than 2 of them, of course.

Spoiler:

Like it felt like a bad faith read in an attempt to present an alt wagon rather than a real read

I had already expressed doubts about both you and HPE earlier, this is just saying XOR instead of OR. It's not an alt wagon if it's just tightening down what I've already said.

I had already expressed doubts about both you and HPE earlier, this is just saying XOR instead of OR. It's not an alt wagon if it's just tightening down what I've already said.

You're definitely in survival mode nonetheless imo

I'm at E-2, no shit I'm in survival mode. The two leading votes are basically me vs you right now, and I know I'm town while you've been exuding scum vibes, so ofc I'm going to try to get people to vote smart instead of following ssmb's train tunnel to a mislim.

I'm at E-2, no shit I'm in survival mode. The two leading votes are basically me vs you right now, and I know I'm town while you've been exuding scum vibes, so ofc I'm going to try to get people to vote smart instead of following ssmb's train tunnel to a mislim.

Then actually find and vote scum

If you think it's Abnegation make a case on her, don't sit and throw shade at me/HPE hoping somebody buys it and moves off

If you think it's one of us then vote us

If you think it's Abnegation make a case on her, don't sit and throw shade at me/HPE hoping somebody buys it and moves off

If you think it's one of us then vote us

I gave my case earlier, several people agreed, but it's hard to get more evidence when she hasn't posted in forever. So until then:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: HPE

If you think it's Abnegation make a case on her, don't sit and throw shade at me/HPE hoping somebody buys it and moves off

If you think it's one of us then vote us

I gave my case earlier, several people agreed, but it's hard to get more evidence when she hasn't posted in forever. So until then:
UNVOTE:
VOTE: HPE

This one thinks this is AI, in a way.
"Well she isn't giving me anything to work with so I'll just go with option B." when you could definitely make the case that the fact she ISN'T doing anything now is weird and worth attention. It's peeving me too, that's for sure, but you don't wanna go down that avenue because you don't think it's concrete enough. You're shopping for wagons that people will agree on and push with you rather than ones you think are genuinely scum. There's also a possibility you and Abne are scumpartners, which is why you don't feel like committing to a push on her, but even discarding that you're just

lazy

scum in general.

I'm at E-2, no shit I'm in survival mode. The two leading votes are basically me vs you right now, and I know I'm town while you've been exuding scum vibes, so ofc I'm going to try to get people to vote smart instead of following ssmb's train tunnel to a mislim.

Then actually find and vote scum

? He's saying he's voting someone who is scummy. What do you mean

[Flavor Leaf]

the fact that Abnegation flips town makes me think that was meant to be a compromise that Dragon tried to use to get us to move away from HPE, but it was unnecessary because Lap wagon picked up more.

[Flavor Leaf]

Laplacian voters as of 503: ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm

Assuming Laplacian scum it would be with 2 of these as partners:
Joyboy

Purplemango
DragonEater70

Hu Tao
Flavor Leaf
cw357

Thomith

bold=missing from 503

3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

Why were purplemango and thomith not listed in scenario 3?

In the chance that Lap is scum, they are scum with at least one of the people on that first list.

Not liking your deep deep assumptions. Seems very black and white, red and blue. Mafia is purple and gray.

I'm speaking in the context of DE's scenario 3 in 503. I think 503 is deeply flawed and am working to get to the bottom of that. I don't think that if we flip scum!Lap that there are no scum on his wagon right now. I'm trying to figure out how DE got to where he did because the basis seems all wrong. I'm not sure if it's wrong intentionally or by oversight.

Kyouko also called out DE for having weird oversights.

[Flavor Leaf]

scum probably left flavor alive cuz his reads are wrong

this is only true if DE is scum, though.

If DE is town, it's confirmed that scum tried to kill me 2 nights in a row.

[Flavor Leaf]

and which of my reads would be wrong, though?

I don't believe I have any read this game that I'm not considering a slot to be both scum or town.

This either means scum are actively trying to get rid of me and failing hard, or scum are trying to control where I end up, and the only one that I believe fits that bill is DragonEater.

[Flavor Leaf]

I also think overall my reads have been pretty great this game.

I didn't care one way about Kyouko alignment, was a means to an end to shoot correctly on Night 2 (which I did). I actively called Lap town.

Only wrong read I had this game was Abnegation, and even then, that was a misfade candidate that I got rid of.

[Flavor Leaf]

I think Dragon's just been trying to control my vote and planning to deep wolf.

[Flavor Leaf]

Might have to look into Dragon and Gamma or Dragon and Geraint team.

I think Hu Tao is probably not aligned with Dragon, but i've been saying one of them are scum. And that's the pickle I'm in here right now.

[Flavor Leaf]

I do think there is scum in Pavowski or HPE, though

I am gonna ask something surprising:

Why HPE?

[Flavor Leaf]

scum probably left flavor alive cuz his reads are wrong

As he has said a few times now, Flavor has town-cased and scum-cased every player in the game at this point. If I were scum, I wouldn't put too much stock in what he's saying in the thread as a reason to keep him alive.

Gamma even brought up how annoying that is for scum earlier, and Dragon is the one who is getting hit with it the most.

I'm actually kinda locking in with Dragon scum right now.

I think it's Dragon + 1 of CW, Gamma, Purple, Geraint

Pav and Hu Tao, in a Dragon scum world, are probably my don't touches.

If Dragon is town, it's like 90% Hu Tao + 1 of the other 4. But im leaning Dragon a lot harder than Hu Tao in this reread I'm doing.

[Flavor Leaf]

Imagine a vigilante in this game shooting anybody but CW

I think cw started making sense later in the day though. But before then yes

Which quote of cw made sense to you?

Look at his iso. 457 and onward he started making sense

Kinda disagree since they've been mainly sheeping Kyouko on the horribly contrived scumcase on me

this doesn't hold up well at all now knowing Kyouko is town.

[Flavor Leaf]

Might have to look into Dragon and Gamma or Dragon and Geraint team.

I think Hu Tao is probably not aligned with Dragon, but i've been saying one of them are scum. And that's the pickle I'm in here right now.

I think Hu Tao is a better vote than Dragon right now, BUT voting Dragon *could* be a mechanically better play, as you could then shoot Hu Tao tonight if Dragon flips green, and it couldn't be stopped

Not saying I want to do that necessarily, just gaming it out

dragon just gonna jail me again

[Flavor Leaf]

oh thats what you were saying.


Idk.

Listen to the dead players.

Lap and Kyouko both made comments about Dragon being scum. Abnegation was getting edged to get pushed by DE (also me, but thats why I killed there).

I just think a lot of that shows that this game state setup was meant to help Dragon, the scum putting the most effort into the game.

[Flavor Leaf]

I could be sold on scum!Purple, especially given recent play as I said earlier

I could also be sold on scum!CW, I think there's merit in the HPE/CW beef as s/s

That would leave out Dragon and Hu Tao, though

i agree with merit in HPE/CW potential beef.

That being said, I think CW since Day 2 has been spitting pure genuineness, even at the extent of being ridiculous.

And I actually think based on the way DE and CW reacted to my vig, they arent scum together here (also CW push on DE)

VOTE: DragonEater

I'm willing to take this day to stop DE. I've been trying to die frankly, because I can completely tell scum are actively trying to work me.

[Flavor Leaf]

de/gamma/hu tao is my elim pool

this is a good lim pool.

[Flavor Leaf]

are scum by default multitasking in Simple games?

[Flavor Leaf]

Presumably if we limmed Dragon and you die tonight, we'd be in mountainous from there out right? With hopefully 1 scum left to find out of ... what ... we'd have 5 alive tomorrow?

Shit if Dragon is scum and you shoot true the game could end tonight

yeah, that's a big reason why I think this is probably the right play.

Tomorrow, worst case scenario, is 3-2, all mountainous (unless DE isn't the scum PR and it was a fake claim, but regardless, it wouldnt matter, i think they are the SCUM PR if scum.)

And I think that's solid.

And then at the very least, you get to play the game without Dragon/FL duo, which will open up gamestate a lot.

[Flavor Leaf]

i just think this second night was very anti town to block me, and only preserves scum.

I wanted to die, and I'd have at least taken out another slot with me that opens the game up more.

[Flavor Leaf]

I still don't get what I'd be scared of as scum? As scum I would just say "cool I can continue sheeping Flavor" and know that you are pocketed

I thought about shooting you

Hmm I'd be down to be shot

I have a self confirming role
VOTE: cw

I also stand by this not being a 'self confirming role', and this was said to help get through this day phase.

[Flavor Leaf]

I think there's a strong case against all of DE/HPE/Flavor but flavor's is so glaringly obvious + this whole claiming situation

I think this is too on the nose to have CW as scum with the two of them. The fact cw got turned to me here before flipping to DE mainly and tunneling is a good sign for CW town in a DE scum world.

[Flavor Leaf]

Presumably if we limmed Dragon and you die tonight, we'd be in mountainous from there out right? With hopefully 1 scum left to find out of ... what ... we'd have 5 alive tomorrow?

Shit if Dragon is scum and you shoot true the game could end tonight

yeah, that's a big reason why I think this is probably the right play.

Tomorrow, worst case scenario, is 3-2, all mountainous (unless DE isn't the scum PR and it was a fake claim, but regardless, it wouldnt matter, i think they are the SCUM PR if scum.)

And I think that's solid.

And then at the very least, you get to play the game without Dragon/FL duo, which will open up gamestate a lot.

If DE's claim is a fake claim at this point my brain is gonna break into itty bitty pieces

i mean, it would just be a Roleblocker if it's fake, or the partner would be Blocker/JK.

I think Occam's Razor is DE is just a Scum JK.

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor if you shoot me you should probably announce that so I get conf towned

Like incase you get nightkilled

^

an inconsistency

how would I get killed

[Flavor Leaf]

I still don't get what I'd be scared of as scum? As scum I would just say "cool I can continue sheeping Flavor" and know that you are pocketed

I thought about shooting you

Hmm I'd be down to be shot

I have a self confirming role
VOTE: cw

I also stand by this not being a 'self confirming role', and this was said to help get through this day phase.

Sorry for double post.

Could you clarify "I stand by this not being a 'self confirming role'"? The grammar of it is messing with me.

Stopping my kill does not confirm them. It just confirms they have something to be able to block my kill.

[Flavor Leaf]

@Geraint - Please trust me if you are town here onto Dragon.

[Flavor Leaf]

There was a time when HPE had 3 votes on them, Dragon, Myself, and Hu Tao.

Then Lap joined on, and Dragon immediately moved over to Abnegation.

Dragon and HPE have some ties there.

I also think Pavowski and Kyouko have some ties together. They both actually look pretty rough with the flips we have in hindsight rereading Day 1.

HPE

Pavowski

Kyouko

DragonEater

Is a pool

Idk what it’s a pool of yet, but it’s a pool.

it's a pool of 2 scum. I noticed the HPE-Drag ties there too.

Yeah, I'm locked in today.

[Flavor Leaf]

Flavor if you shoot me you should probably announce that so I get conf towned

Like incase you get nightkilled

^

an inconsistency

how would I get killed

Wasn't he still being cheeky about his role at that point? Like he hadn't full-claimed JK? Or is my perception of time off

he didnt claim at all that day, he waited until the next day.

They were posturing, and was trying to get me to confirm if I was vigging them that day phase, which is a big reason I shut down and went nope, not claiming where im vigging, and I knew I was vigging HPE from real early on Day 2.

[Flavor Leaf]

Fun fact:

When Flavor said I should vig cw, I wanted to respond with "I agree, you should vig cw tonight while I stay home like a good townie", but I didn't because I thought that moght make people think I'm actually the vig

Anyhow, VOTE: Flavor

He's not a N1 vig.

ok now this is an interesting twist

on the bright side this confirms at least one (if not both) scum in flavor/de since if de is lying and flavor flips town then de is scum

but I feel optimistic both will be scum

You think Dragon/Flavor are putting on scumtheatre over vig shots? I mean ... if they're scum together wouldn't the possible presence of another actual vig out there kinda blow this up?

No way DE/Flavor murder Abne overnight as scum partners, imo

this is very good by Pav.

Pav is the only slot this game that I've trusted in a way where I dont think theyre actually trying to get me to trust them, like at least not in a regular way. They've been actively conversing with me in a way that feels town/town, and they have been even before I claimed Vig. this goes back to the 2 of us dealing with CW together on Day 1.

[Flavor Leaf]

I promise I'm not deliberately spamming the thread, but I hate wall posting. Between my last post and some notes I took at the end of d1 when I got home and the thread was locked have me really considering Purple/Dragon as two of the three scum (It would be 3 in a normal, right?). And given they know each other IRL...

scum!Purple / scum!Dragon works
town!Purple / scum!Dragon works
scum!Purple / town!Dragon doesn't work
town!Purple / town!Dragon could work but that means I have to find 3 scum in HPE, Kyouko, Joy, CW, Gera, Hu Tao. Possible? Yes. Likely? Feels like no.

Purple, what's your take on Dragon right now?

I don’t get the relation between the two.

Dragon was goading purple into voting on Day 1, though, and i think purple lack of voting is kinda townie

There's no relation

Pav isn't making sense and is just trying to divert attention elsewhere, IMO

ouch, not a good look. I actually think Pav makes a lot of sense, especially in hindsight. I was thinking this before I reread this post. This is a pure discredit post, and what was happening to Lap the day before too.

[Flavor Leaf]

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

they saw it!!!!

im still pissed that I was (presumably?) wrong about flavor
UNVOTE:

How does this change your reads

see below

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

well this means at least one scum in DE/Kyouko, which I could have seen already.
I arrive at the following conclusion:
If Kyouko is town then DE/Flavor ig could be w/w? Maybe both Kyo and DE are scum
But I'm going to go out on a limb and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko
prob should vig DE if kyouko flips town

so did CW if Kyouko flips town. Dragon Eater HAD to do something to become townier, so they gambited.

im still pissed that I was (presumably?) wrong about flavor
UNVOTE:

How does this change your reads

see below

Oh I see, DE is scum trying to bait out the real vig
VOTE: DE

well this means at least one scum in DE/Kyouko, which I could have seen already.
I arrive at the following conclusion:
If Kyouko is town then DE/Flavor ig could be w/w? Maybe both Kyo and DE are scum
But I'm going to go out on a limb and VOTE: ssbm_Kyouko
prob should vig DE if kyouko flips town

I'm not going to pretend to understand the logic of why this post means Kyo or DE or *both* could be scum, but the more I sit with it the more scum!Dragon makes sense to me

VOTE: Dragon

good on Pav.

Pav and Hu Tao

you got it boss, see y'all tomorrow

Pav's ISO has quite a bit of townie energy imo and there's a few standout posts this one particularly likes, such as 335 and 869. In general Pav feels very genuine in alot of his posts and points and this one is happy with putting him down as town. Though this one also finds it weird how you tried to shoot down 870 ngl.

On the other hand this one has fucking nothing for Hu Tao LMAOOOO. This one couldn't reallllly get anything of note out of reading her ISO and when it took a look at its last games with her, Smuggler's Port and love child, it realized that it just cannot read her well because these ISOs are like all fucking identical. And she was town in SP and scum in LC so like!!! Fuck!!! This one still wants to put her down as a scumlean for her lame pushes on me earlier but that's really about it. Going to look more thoroughly later for sure, though.

This was HPE actively being helped in thread by DE to get a better standing and look like HPE was doing something. HPE gave almost nothing all game, but happens to give it when Dragon asks for it, and HPE calls them Boss even. Like, in the moment, that's fine. In hindsight, the way HPE acted towards DE is exactly what a scum partner following the lead scum does.

[Flavor Leaf]

Kyouko posted the cop soft that Thom did

hilariously blinded by a pocket this game vibes. It happens to us all

[Flavor Leaf]

Kyouko posted the cop soft that Thom did

hilariously blinded by a pocket this game vibes. It happens to us all

Can someone voting dragon explain that? I don't see it

oops, this was suppoised to be the attached quote^

[Flavor Leaf]

A Dragon->Geraint team makes sense why they couldn't kill last night because Geraint was a high chance of being shot by me as well as Dragon.

Yeah, I think Dragon fade today leads to a Geraint Vig shot, game over.

[Flavor Leaf]

if dragon gets vigged, then it's game over for that scum team since Geraint was likely next.

[Flavor Leaf]

i am vt

not opposed to a hu tao wagon, who's feeling it?

maybe hu tao/dragon/hpe is scumteam?

this is possible.

[Flavor Leaf]

I wish I could see HPE alignment without having to flip them, lol. that's a big key slot here for me right now.

this made it obvious I was gonna vig there, i think.

[Flavor Leaf]

This one is warming up to the idea of scum!Pav but it definitely feels like we're overlooking the lurkers even as we say "well there could be scum there..........."

I wish I could see HPE alignment without having to flip them, lol. that's a big key slot here for me right now.

also you could just shoot me anyway

this is huge.

HPE was not afraid of being shot because they knew they could be protected.

DE also likes gambits, and I can tell probably wanted to pull one.

I just think everything is lining up for DE scum.

[Flavor Leaf]

i also kind of agree with their sentiment, because i have reasons to town read every slot in the game as well.

exactly
I'd rather not to vote for dragoneater70, you, HPE, and joyboy at least for now

eww

Let me explain my thought process on Pav, because I sorta intentionally didn't explain it earlier as I'd wanted to see reactions to my vote on him.

Day 1 he was being voted/shaded for some eary game weirdness which I was willing to ignore as I could see coming from town. Then he made more posts which came across as towny.

However today with Abnegation flipping green and me re-evaluating my scumread on HPE (I think HPE is nulltown right now FWIW), I realized I'd been most likely townreading scum. And while his posts *sound* towny, they are definitely NOT impossible to fake, which makes him the likeliest person to be the scum I'd been townreading. He *sounds* like he's trying to solve the game, but when I actually read his posts I cannot an actual thought process about people's alignments to which I could say "yeah, this person actually had this thought and is actually trying to figure things out".

VOTE: Pavowski
Think this post hit the nail on the head for me especially with how poor Pav's D2 posting has been.

yeah, HPE is completely playing around and in sync with Dragon, they are flowing around the game together.

[Flavor Leaf]

Hu Tao, can you talk about the PV/CW - Hu Tao/DragonEater dynamics to me? What are your thoughts on the 4 of you, not necessarily your read, but your thoughts on the 2 v 2 as a general thing.

I think that cw is probably town but will vote wrong tomorrow so he needs to go. Still a small chance he flips scum so better now then later. Pav seems to be the one who does soft defenses of cw so I think he could be the scum that wants cw alive for tomorrow.

In terms of Dragon and me. Could dragon ve pocketing me? Idk, I don't think so. Last time I played with dragon scum he was obvious and I called it day 1. I don't see that here. I think it's weird cw tries to push that me and dragon are a pair and his read seems very surface level which is why I think there is a chance cw flips scum.

I'm gonna locktown Hu Tao

So that makes 4 I'm never voting - Purple, Flavor, Hu Tao and myself.

Can you explain why Hu Tao is town? I agree with the points I'm reading from cw against Hu Tao, but I have been severely tunneled in this game up until today. Specifically you mentioned it looks like cw is opening ISOs and ignoring context, and maybe because I've been tunneled I'm missing the fact that context is missing?

I feel in isolation and without fact-checking them that the cw posts about scum!HT make sense. Flavor being conftown and Laplacian flipping town really turns this game upside down for me. I also noticed about Thomith a few days ago when looking at his ISO that from the way he talked about Hu Tao I'm pretty sure he was banking on investigating them. I haven't looked for their meta together yet but it might be HT had reason to believe that could happen if they've played together in games where Thomith was an investigative before

Yeah, this is really good observation.

In addition, Day 2 we were really never going to be able to agree on a scum fade because of the effort HPE, DE were putting in, and I do think HT has some scum potential as the 3rd here.

It's almost always Hu Tao or Geraint.


I actually have a VCA reasoning for why the team has a big chance of being HPE/DE/Hu Tao from Day 2 that I'll get into after my reread.