Mini 1243: Magician Mafia (Game Over)

[Luxury]

Hello, Regfan side of the head here and I've read up on everything and had a good discussion with Shift. Nice to see a lot of you again and surprisingly I found this to be one of the more enjoyable catch-up reads that I've done in quite some time though I have to admit I've never seen Penn and Teller so I'm behind flavourish wise. I have strong town reads on Vi and Ace and I also have relatively strong town-reads on Crab Cannon, Saulres and Fishy at the moment too though the Fishy town read revolves primarily around his role and action claim. Explanations behind my other town-reads are available upon request.

Given the no reveal nature of the setup and it generally favoring scum greatly I find a three person scum team highly unlikely and can very much see this being two scum and a SK with Sotty being the SKs kill last night which essentially means that either Vi was shot at or scum were roleblocked, I lean towards the later. I'm very much considering the possibility of Riggs being a SK-BP right now, his avoidance of taking strong stances in the thread, his lurking to avoid being in the limelight and his suspicion of Sotty throughout most of yesterday match up with Sottys kill being from a SK and SK-BP seems balanced and likely setup-wise.

Disregarding setup speculation I have scum-reads of various strengths on Jumpei, Riggs, Amrum, Locke and Anxiety and would be content with nearly any of their lynches today though my preference right now would be Riggs since my Anxiety scum-read is boosted and based around his role blocking rather than anything else. I do want to read more into Locke/Anxiety tomorrow though because between the five of [Amrum, Jumpei, Anxiety, Riggs, Locke] I'm positive Amrum and Jumpei aren't partners forcing at least one of Locke/Anxiety/Riggs to be scum and considering I think Riggs is SK one of Locke/Anxiety have to be scum.

Vote: Riggs

[Luxury]

So you think Riggs is Sk, and you vote him over your scum candidates? why?

Disregarding setup speculation I have scum-reads of various strengths on Jumpei, Riggs, Amrum, Locke and Anxiety and

would be content with nearly any of their lynches today though my preference right now would be Riggs since my Anxiety scum-read is boosted and based around his role blocking

rather than anything else

-Shift

PEdit: If by open you mean our heads, this is currently a hydra of Shift and Regfan alone.

And yes, for some reason Regfan likes to spell your names with "m"s despite me pointing it out multiple times. Deal with it.

As for how having a town neighbor as SK is stacked against the SK, you honestly think it's not a little too OP for town to have two bulletproof neighbors?

[Luxury]

I won't be signing my posts however Shift will probably sign his.

Our read on Riggs although partially based around setup speculation also involves his avoidance of strong stances, continued lurking and his suspicions yesterday fitting the Sotty death and yes I do believe the likelihood of a SK and townie BPs being inside a neighborhood being more likely than two townie BPs.

[Luxury]

luxury needs to go into detail about why an sk lynch is more profitable than a scum lynch( silly rabbit).

Because we think Riggs is our best best to lynch an antitown faction, which is what we should be going for. His flip gives us the info we want even if we're incorrect. With scum narrowed down to 4, excluding Riggs, we're taking a 50/50 shot with a vote if our theory of 2 scum 1 SK is correct. We'd rather A. Test the theory B. Lynch the person most likely in our eyes to be a nontown faction.

ace, do you want to know why i asked for a name claim or why i thought spring was a vt, i will only answer one question from you.

This is blatantly antitown, cut it out.

Oh, and Amrun:

1. It helps to read the person's post before you press on it, or at least admit you didn't have time to read the entire thing/was too lazy to

2.

I saw that, but it's completely pointless. You could always fabricate that after the fact.

I tried to articulate how pointless and retarded this post and its predecessor was but I couldn't do it, so instead I'll just leave a picture of someone crying out of frustration because it's an accurate description of how frustrated and enraged this post made me, combined with my inability to express it in word form. Congratulations on wasting town's time, asking a question already answered expecting a different response when you knew the first answer, presenting a baseless and irrelevant accusation that is literally unprovable, and pointing out the obvious "Any post can come from scum".





-Shift

[Luxury]

^^that's not shift he doesn't' talk like that and his scumdar is broken(silly rabbit).

Not going to waste time arguing over whether or not I'm me, unsure if you're joking or if you seriously think I'm lying about posting that. If it's the latter, why aren't you voting me?

A large part of the reason I wanted Regfan to hydra with me in this is because admittedly my scumhunting is weak without him. It's not really sheeping him, more like needing someone to start me on the right track and discuss reads with.

i've changed my mind ace only gets one question for the rest of the game.

is this post best best blatantly anti-town and pointless enough for you to lynch me?

No, you're one of the 4 people we've narrowed it down to but for the moment I won't be voting you. And your playstyle seems to be "Let's see how much bullshit I can get away with for fun/to troll/to annoy players into emotional reactions" so I can see this post coming from either alignment, sadly. Behaving in an antitown manner does not, unfortunately, mean the player has an antitown wincon.

which is the best lynch?
-a scum read
-a sk read
-or an anti-town read

It depends. If your antitown read seems like the type of person who would probably make antitown moves as town, like you, even though you're still one of the 4 scum candidates, then no it's not the best lynch. If they'd probably only make it as scum, then yes vote them. Scum reads/SK reads are again circumstantial, if it's best to leave the SK alive then you should be voting a scum read, if it doesn't matter you should be voting whichever one is stronger. In this case we think voting our SK read is better than voting in the 4 with a 50/50 chance of hitting scum if we're right on it being 2:1:10

Overall, it is the one you think would A. Result in a Mafia/Third Party flip AND B. Result in the best outcome for town (Don't lynch in 4 way with 2 VTs vs. Mafia vs. SK)

-Shift

As tempting as it is to refuse anymore questions from Anxiety to prove my point I'll hold off for now.

[Luxury]

good answer, do you see why i haven't voted for you yet?

how come you narrowed it down to four and not three?

i thought there was only two mafia and a sk?

We have the two scum narrowed down to 4 because these are the people we don't have town reads on. These are:

You (4nxi3ty), Amrun, Junpei, and Locke. Again, two scum are in here.

As for which one we'd lynch right now if we had to vote someone other than Riggs, I'm not sure. I'd have to discuss it with Regfan. We also don't think Junpei and Amrun are both scum if there's an SK because bussing is suicide.

Strong town reads: Vi, Crab, Ace

Still discussing town reads of various strength: Saulres (Regfan strong town, Shift weak town), Fishy (Regfan weak town read mainly due to claim, Shift strong town read),

SK read: Riggs (Will be discussing what Riggs is if not SK tonight with Regfan)

-Shift

[Luxury]

okay so it would be impossible for all four to be scum, who is most likely to be town?

As much as I hate to admit it your latest posts now that I think about it are coming off incredibly town so I'd choose you. Despite doing odd things just to evoke emotional reactions/piss people off, after thinking about our short conversation almost every question you're asking is a good one and seems to be coming from a town PoV.

Again will be discussing this with Regfan, if he agrees with me we'll probably vote Locke because of our belief Amrun+Junpei are not scum together.

[Luxury]

-Shift

[Luxury]

1) I'd like you to clarify. Are those 4 people you have scum reads on or people you don't have town reads on? Specifically I'm asking if your list is primarily process of elimination or direct scumhunting.

I've already answered this. Though we do have weak scum reads on you, Locke, and Amrun along with a suspicion of 4nxi3ty for the roleblock (Though I now think 4nxi3ty is town and will be discussing it with Regfan), this is mostly PoE. You 4 (Counting 4nxi3ty) were the ones

2) Given that of those 4 there are 2 scum, and you think GNR is scum, and that there are as you say 3 anti town roles, that means that you must be quite confident in your town reads of the other 5 players. To have it narrowed down to 2 of 4 like that, I can't see any other way except for confidence in your town reads, which your hydra seems to conflict on. Essentially I"d like you to comment on this observation.

3 of them we both agree are very strong.

2 of them have us split with 1 strong town read and 1 weak town read. We very much agree that these players are more than likely town, our strength is just different. My saulres read is weaker than Regfan's because I haven't ISO'd him yet but I've promised to. Regfan's read on Fishy is town but it's mainly for his claim which is where we have the disagreement.

Overall, our reads match very well and the only conflicts are minor differences in strength of reads. Even in these cases we trust the other's judgment quite a bit to the point where ISOing saulres to solidify my town read on him is just another safety precaution, I'd be perfectly fine with taking my weak read on him and Regfan's strong read on him and calling him town and I'm sure Regfan feels the same way about Fishy.

-Shift

[Luxury]

Just talked to Regfan to get a full grasp on his read on Fishy since I didn't have a great memory of exactly what he said and didn't want to say something completely wrong. He found Fishy a semistrong scum read D1 but D2 his opinion changed and the context and manner of his claim read pretty strongly town to him, currently his read on him is mediumtown.

As for the bias I try to remain open, regardless of what you say though I will be ISOing him within the next few days. We'll see how it turns out, nothing I can really do about my own bias.

Regfan agreed strongly with me on 4nxi3ty, so we're moving our vote to something much more viable and even a bit more likely to flip antitown. We believe that there are two likely scenarios at the moment, with Scenario A looking to us as the more likely one.

Scenario A: Sotty was shot by an SK trying to cross kill, Scum was roleblocked (4nxi3ty, but we doubt this), prevented by a save of some sort, or shot Vi/Riggs. In this case, we believe one of Amrun/Junpei is scum with the second being Locke Lamora as bussing with an SK on the loose is suicide.

Scenario B: There is a three-man scumteam with a POSSIBLE vig/prevented scumkill, meaning it's possible they shot Sotty. In this case we believe it is Amrun+Junpei+Locke with Amrun bussing Junpei

In both scenarios, Locke is scum.

Unvote

Vote: Locke Lamora

I would also like to clarify on my previous statement about how our scum choices were mainly PoE. While this is true I may have not made it clear enough that this was NOT the sole reasoning we had. We've been picking up small scumreads on Locke+Junpei+Amrun so they naturally fell into the possible scum. The roleblock on 4nxi3ty made us nervous so we threw him in to complete the final four but we've since established a strong town read on him.

-Shift

[Luxury]

I don't like this Anxiety lynch at all to be honest, his attitude and early claim both read as town-tells.

Jumpei, the only three possibilies of occurences from last night are 1) Mafia shot Sotty and there's no SK/Vig 2) SK shot Sotty and mafia shot Vi/were roleblocked or 3) Vig shot Sotty and mafia shot Vi/were roleblocked. I don't see mafia shooting Sotty which rules out 1, I don't believe there's a vig which rules out 3 leaving 2 (Or Scenario A so to speak) to be the most likely occurance.

Vi, I'm more than happy with a Riggs lynch but there seems to be a lack of support for it, though to be honest there seems to be a lack of support for a Locke lynch as well so I may change back but there's plenty of time until the deadline so I see no particular reason to rush. I would ask if you can give Ace a note/post about your thoughts on our Riggs-SK and 2 of Amrum/Jumpei/Locke-Scum theory.

Anxiety, Locke isn't a null-read at all, I've played with Locke-Town before and it's nothing like this at all furthermore Shift put it best earlier when he said that Locke is just agreeing with the popular decision in his posts.

Crab, I would love an explanation behind your Locke town read along with the rest of your reads when you're done sorting out your disagreement.

[Luxury]

Luxury's posts are so OUT THERE that I don't know if scum would be that off the wall or not, but I have a hard time seeing that come from town either.

While I can understand our SK theory being off the wall, I fail to see what about our post(s) can be considered irregular by any means. You're blatantly lumping our reads in with our SK theory so you can dismiss them as "off the wall/odd" to give them less credibility. At the same time as dismissing anything we say, you fencesit on us by saying such out-there posts probably wouldn't come from scum at the same time as saying you don't see them coming from town. Pretty sure you're scum this game.

Luxury - Shift was pretty null for us starting D2. He was another sideline player. Regfan came in with more fire in his belly

Yep, just needed someone to get me on the right track.

All of this said, despite Amrun now moving up to our strongest scumread, we'd like to test the validity of our theory ASAP and Riggs is looking like the only lynch we want that's likely to go through today.

Unvote

Vote: Riggs

-Shift

Also:

VI

Y U NO GIVE GENDER

[Luxury]

Fishy needs to out who he roleblocked last night but for now:

Vote: Amrum

[Luxury]

Also reading through Riggs ISO essentially confirms Vi, Ace and Saulres as town especially his final post.

I also have strong town-reads on Fishy and Crab and Anxiety though I have a terrible feeling that this read is correct and that he was roleblocked again last night.

[Luxury]

Salures is questionable. That's just too much wifom in that statement honestly. I can't judge him based on that. Vi is definitely town though, and bulletproof which may explain the lost kill last night. If scum were going to go after her, they'd have to take that shot eventually. that's wifom too of course.

This is true, there is wifom involved in the statement but Saulres's attitude in his countdown timer to vote for Riggs reads as a strong town-tell as well. Also I very much doubt that Vi was shot at, although he's essentially confirmed town mafia would be wanting to shoot and remove the roleblocker before it becomes too dangerous. Also I can understand your scum-read on Jumpei but read through Amrums defence of Riggs yesterday and let me know what you think.

[Luxury]

Sorry Vi but I'm finding it hard to follow what you're trying to say.

If you think that Fishy is mafia then you don't think a roleblocking prevented a kill last night, what did then?

[Luxury]

Let me understand this correctly, you're saying there's two scum and a serial killer left?

[Luxury]

Oh I get it. Since Riggs had a BP vest there's a confirmed second shooter in the setup with it very likely being a SK. I'm going to assume that Sotty was the SK kill N1 then meaning the scum either shot Vi or were roleblocked.

What I'm failing to understand though is where are both of the kills N2 and how does this all lead towards Fishy being mafia. And yeah, apologies for making you repeat things multiple times Vi but I'm barely understanding most of your posts.

[Luxury]

Alright.

Vi, you're saying Fishy is a roleblocking SK, yes or no?

[Luxury]

His scum read on Fishy revolves around his defence of GNR I believe.

So if I understand this all correctly Vi is saying that Fishy is roleblocking scum who roleblocked the BP SK last night while shooting them thus no deaths occuring...

[Luxury]

At the moment we've had claims from Vi, Saulres, Fishy, Anxiety and Ace leaving the only unclaimed players to be Crab, Locke, Jumpei, Amrum and ourselves so right now I think mass-claiming might actually be optimal and we may work out where the missing scum kill(s) are from it.

I'm leaning towards believing Saulres's claim although his reasoning behind suspecting Vi and Ace is garbage though and their roles and interaction with Riggs make them both obvious town. Regardless, I see no reason to lynch him at all right now, if he is indeed SK then mafia will become forced to shoot him at some point or another while he will be forced to use his kills aiming towards hitting scum.

Vi, if this is a flat out Town-Scum game with no SK I'm finding is slightly unbelievable for there to be a Scum BP AND a Scum RB. I also don't understand your suggestion of three scum remaining, that would imply four starting scum with it being 9-4 which is unrealistically mafia sided especially in a no reveal setup.

[Luxury]

You're saying mafia have no kill?

[Luxury]

I don't want to go too deeply into setup speculation here and I'm at work so I'll try to make this brief.

I actually think two vigs that share a combined shot with partial control over the kill target actually makes sense as both town, I can't see how it would make sense if one of them were mafia at all as it would essentially give them control to another kill and I strongly disagree with Vi witht he setup being mafia-killless. What all of this does mean though is that a Mafia RB against 2 vigs is highly likely and although at this point I'm near certain that Amrum is scum I'd be happy moving to Fishy.

Vote: Fishy

[Luxury]

I think we have (possibly impotent?) scum, and we have a town vig. Me.

I killed Sotty on N1 because I thought he was scum. Last night my kill didn't go through, and so I was expecting Fishy to say he blocked me, and he did.

I'm Siegfried Fischbacher, of Siegfried and Roy.

My role PM suggests that I don't have full control over my tiger

and so I was thinking that Roy is out there and scum, and so I was hoping to get a tell to that effect, such as a tiger attack I didn't order. But I don't think that's the case any more: 1)The tiger did what I asked it to on N1, 2) The tiger did nothing last night and there's a block claim on me, and 3) We have a Teller without a Penn, so I'm thinking Roy's still injured and not in the game after all.

I'm going to claim Vigilante here.

N1 I shot Sotty
N2 I shot Anxiety

I have a tiger named Montecore, whom I can kill someone with. But my role is a bit odd in some respects.

I'm compulsive (have to shoot every night). I was told that there were

any amount of factors that could affect my kill such that

my kill doesn't kill my target, or possibly kills someone else.

The bold is what caught my eye early on, and is what has had me confused on the setup from the getgo. But now with 2 BP claims and a JK claim, it confuses me quite less. However... possibility of killing someone else is yet to be explained, and I suspect that mafia have a driver of some sort.

The bolded above pretty much confirms you both as a partial vig controller, if you select the same target that target dies similar to what happened N1 and I'm assuming if you pick separate targets one of your shots (Probably random, possibly whoever sent it in first) goes through and the others doesn't, guessing that Sauls went through last night but he was roleblocked.

So yeah, no one should be voting Jumpei or Saulres right now at all.

[Luxury]

If there is indeed three scum left I'd place a bet on it being an Amrum + Fishy + Snake scum team.

[Luxury]

Saulres, I don't see any real motivation for Jumpei-Scum to cc a claim like vig here if it wasn't real at all, it's something that's confirmable and the manner in which he cc'ed reads strongly as town.

Given that now everyone but Crab, Amrum, Snake and ourselves have claimed we should most certaintly finish this mass-claim. I'd prefer Amrum start it but if others want I'd be willing to claim first. Oh and it's Luxury-Regfan, all unsigned posts are.

[Luxury]

ROFL the mafia and the town share an uncontrollable kill The Tiger, brilliant flavor.

I don't see how you jump to this conclusion at all. I don't understand a mafia-town joint shared kill because mafia and town would never be wanting to target the same player thus it would turn the role into a "Coin flip for who gets the kill" which makes no sense. Furthermore, lets say that one of them is town and the other is mafia, when the town player dies the mafia get full control of two kills? Yeah no, that doesn't sound right at all especially if Vi is saying this is a 4 scum setup.

[Luxury]

I don't think the whole JK rather than RB thing means anything to be honest. Jumpei has spent quite some time over at epic mafia I believe and Town RB is commonly referred to as JK or Drunk over there, furthermore JK makes less sense being a scum role than RB does.

Jumpei, if we lynch Fishy and he flips scum I'll skin you alive if you vig shoot Anxiety. Fishy claimed to block him D1 when there was a missing kill thus edging the lynch in his direction and not reading as a buss at all. Upon a Fishy scum flip you should most certainty be shooting at Amrum or potentially Snake.

[Luxury]

Yes, my suspicion of Amrum has nothing to do with PoE though I'll admit my Locke read does.

Amrum:
- Her defence of Riggs throughout yesterday
- Her incredibly weak push towards Jumepi throughout the whole game. She insists he's mafia but never has put a case or anything up against him.
- Her reaction towards Riggs scum claim at the end of yesterday looking forced.
- Her fencesitting over our reads and thoughts "They're so odd, too odd to be mafia but don't see it coming from town".

Locke:
- His continual agreement with the popular thoughts/opinions rather than presenting anything new.
- Him playing against the town meta that I have of him.
- PoE.

[Luxury]

I'll wait on name claiming as well though I'm not sure I understand the negatives of it, we're a VT.

Only people left to claim now are Crab, Locke and Fishy to finish fully claiming.

[Luxury]

Woooooo, as likely as it is that Fishy is scum I can't refuse an Amrun lynch especially considering that Snake essentially has a role-cop guilty on her. Vi, you should join us on it and we deal with Fishy tomorrow and I stated Town RB because a mafia roleblocker is called an entirely different name on EM with it being hooker.

Oh and Anxiety and Saulres, both of you need to halt the bickering because honestly you're both probably town, it's anti-productive and frustrating to read plus I needed to be added to the list of people that hasn't name claimed.

Unvote: Fishy, Vote: Amrun

[Luxury]

I've said several times that it is a passive ability - what it does, I have no idea. My guess is nothing, and that it's a flavor addition, due to my name.

It MIGHT do nothing. I've just played assuming it does nothing. The mod wouldn't answer, so it's meant to be a mystery.

So you decided that instead of telling us you have a mystery passive ability, you just claimed VT? Why do I not believe this?

At this point we're sold on Saulres and Junpei town. Vi and ace are essentially confirmed town and we're thinking Crab+Anxiety+Snake are town though Anxiety's posts today have been terrible.

In case it isn't obvious the fact that Saulres caught Locke's breadcrumb yet Locke/Snake did not die tonight makes Saul obvious town.

To us, Amrun is pretty obviously scum and needs to die as soon as possible. Fishy is probably second, if not one of our townreads on Crab/Anxiety/Snake is wrong.

-Shift

[Luxury]

Maybe because it isn't a real ability and I actually forgot it existed?

I'm sorry to say I don't believe this at all.

How the hell is Junpei town from this?

A. PoE
B. Being pushed by our strongest scum read over flipped scum
C. Scum have either a kill and a strong possibility of a second every night or partial control over 1. Both suggestions are ridiculous. Scum having a chance of two kills every night with no reveal is incredibly overpowered, scum having partial control over one kill with a town BP and roleblocker is underpowered. Furthermore, it's likely that the scum had a BP (Riggs).

Luxury is scum.

You see, this is funny because you've mentioned us a grand total of three times since we replaced in, this being one of them. The first time it was trying to dismiss our reads as ridiculous/off the wall along with our theory, and fencesitting on us, the second time it was saying our suggestion that Snake's result was damning was scummy, the third time was this.

AKA points you've made for this: 1 weak one.

Feel free to elaborate on your apparently strong read at any time, I'm looking forward to your case on us.

In the meantime in case it isn't obvious Amrun literally needs rope as soon as possible, I don't even see why this day is still going on. If her last few posts don't show you I don't even know what to say.

-Shift

[Luxury]

herpderp shift has been here since the beginning

this is funny because you've mentioned us a grand total of

three times since we replaced in

We replaced in ~14 pages ago. The past 14 pages have been more important than any other section of the game.

Feel free to elaborate on your apparently strong read at any time, I'm looking forward to your case on us.

Amrun literally needs rope

-Shift

[Luxury]

After searching Amrun's ISO for Shift as well I found nothing except a craptastic point on how me skimming the Junpei case D1 was scummy, mentions of me being slightly scummy, unimportant questions directed at me, and a quickdeadline vote.

Total case on me/us from Amrun: 2 craptastic points

In the meantime I'll just leave you with these gems in case you didn't already know Amrun needs to die.

If you seriously think a SCUM GNR would shoot you, Vi, then I don't know what else to say to you.

I think Penn and Teller make perfect sense as a neighborhood, so I don't really care, tbh.

Not sure why you want to stay on gnr.

If GNR were scum, he would advise his scumteam not to shoot the player he knows to be bp...

You think GNR-scum, knowing you are bp, shot you at night?

That's really what you think, Vi?

So you think Riggs is Sk, and you vote him over your scum candidates? why?

Actually, I think it might be good for the vig to claim now. If he does (and exists), we could possibly confirm gnr as town.

Oh, but she does have one post in support of his lynch!

At this point, GNR seems like a fairly solid wagon.

...But at the same time tries to derail the lynch to Junpei, see almost every quote above this, especially 768, and the ones below.

I'd still be happy to see Junpei strung up, though I'm having trouble determining if his theory is something he believes in SO STRONGLY that it could conceivably come from town. It seems more like a crutch to not contribute anything useful, to me.

Okay, can we just ignore this and lynch junpei, please?

Vote: Junpei

-Shift

[Luxury]

^hmmm the whole game is more important, is rigg's flip the main reason for your reads?

I am sick and tired of answering questions Regfan and I have already answered several times over. I'm done doing it, ISO was built for a reason. An alternative is to learn to access memories from longer than 4 minutes ago.

PEdit: Amrun, coming from you the line "Reading comprehension" is incredibly ironic.

Furthermore, two of those quotes concerned that. There's a lot more than two.

It's basically how Luxury explains their reads. They do not read genuine. In some cases, they plain do not make sense. The way they are followed (or not followed) do not read as an organic thought process to me. It's more of a "pushing mislynches" feeling rather than a feeling of trying to actually get scum lynched, though.

So our strong array of town reads don't come off genuine, and don't make sense. Interesting considering we've gone over every reason for our reads while you've given next to nothing. It's also hilarious that you accuse us of "pushing mislynches" and not trying to get scum lynched...when we blatantly lynched scum yesterday to test our theory.

But anyway, done arguing with scum. Feel free to come back with a real case/reason, until then again Amrun needs rope.

-Shift

[Luxury]

Talked to drunk Regfan for a little bit, we've been willing to compromise on Fishy/Amrun and it appears that Fishy will be the most likely lynch today. Depending on what sober Regfan says we might switch back to Amrun, both are good lynches.

VOTE: Fishy

Anyway, we are Val Valentino the illusionist/actor. We have no abilities aside from our vote (VT)

-Shift

[Luxury]

I'm about to head to bed and will get to this game in the morning but you're not vigging Snake, shooting a rolecop is one of the dumbest ideas I've heard. Also I don't see there being a SK in the setup at all with shared vig claims.

[Luxury]

Yeah.....that's going to be the stupidest 'theory' that I've ever heard but it's actually strengthened my town-read on you surprisingly enough. Also, I don't see any particular need to draw or drag this day out at all. At this point I'm convinced that lynching Fishy and having Amrun vigged will net us two scum or at worst one.

Now I'm really going to try and get some sleep.

[Luxury]

This is getting ridiculous, our theory may have been way out there but some of these are flat out terrible.

Someone hurry up and hammer, vigs when Fishy flips scum you're vigging Amrun.

-Shift

[Luxury]

Only got a few minutes but i spoke with Shift earlier who can go into my thoughts in more detail later but essentially I want Anxiety rolecopped and here's why:

We know the following things as facts:

- A death is missing on N1
- Two deaths are missing on N2
- Vi was shot one of N1/N2

Therefore the most likely scenario is that mafia was roleblocked N1, one of the vigs were roleblocked N2 and mafia shot Vi N2 making Anxiety likely roleblocked scum.

[Luxury]

pEdit: Fishy already said he blocked 4nxi3ty on N1 and me on N2. And yes, 4nxi3ty was already rolecopped. Neither head of Luxury is reading the game?

We knew he was roleblocked, we missed the part where he was rolecopped already. Our mistake.

However...

^lol scumslip? i was already rolecopped.

This is without a doubt one of the most ridiculous posts all game, and it's not the first one Anxiety's made. Missing a rolecop report stating someone has a vote cannot be considered a scumslip by any means.

Scum probably have a redirector, though that's already been stated. Will discuss it with Regfan later.

Yes, Anxiety is without a doubt scum because of the missing kill N1. Vi was more than likely shot N2 because if he was shot N1 by scum they would have shot him N2 as well unless you're suggesting Saulres is scum controlling two kills, in which case killing Sotty with the second shot makes no sense. This means scum did not get a kill off N1. There is no doctor, only a roleblocker. And who was roleblocked? Anxiety. Next, scum more than likely redirected one of Saul/Junpei to obvtown Vi unless, again, you think Saul is scum. Why would they bother redirecting if one of Anxiety/Amrun was not scum?

As for the SK theory it now seems unlikely to me as we'd have a total of 4 missing kills if that was the case. Mafia+SK kill N1, Mafia or SK+Vig kill N2, and then a SK or Mafia kill N3. This doesn't seem likely with only 2 roleblocks and 1 BP going around.

Will be discussing with Regfan again to solidify our beliefs before we vote, when we do it'll again probably be Anxiety.

Same goes for who we believe should be rolecopped since it appears Anxiety already has been.

-Shift

[Luxury]

Just posting to say I've picked up my prod and will be much more active in the next few days. Been working near 13 hour days this week so apologies for my lack of activity, haven't heard anything from Shift in quite some time either so no clue where he's gone.

[Luxury]

I understand where you're coming from in relation to Crabs hydra dissonace and contradiction in stances taken but I've played in a lot of hydras myself and a change of read or reversal of read is very very common and understandable as town. I still very much feel we should be lynching between Anxiety and Amrun today though not including the roleblocking on Anxiety and him being scum making sense with the missing kills his play reads as town so I'm uncertain on him to a degree and would prefer an Amrun lynch over him at the moment. The fact that she never claimed her amazing ability until after Snake stated she had it still continues to read as incredibly off-putting as does inclusion of an ability that she 'doesn't know what it does'.

Also right now our strongest town-read by a long way is Saulres though I still think Junpei is likely town due to the claim as well, mafia having direct control to two kills is incredibly overpowered and inclusion of re-director makes a great deal of sense.

Vote: Amrun

[Luxury]

Shift: Says that he reacts only... but uses those answers to anticipate my supposed move of "NO ANSWER U SCUM". Strange contradiction, which could be explained as scum trying to fabricate an appearance/answers. There's a split in the persona that I would have guessed from his answers and his actions. He doesn't seem to use gut like he says he's going to in the first page. I just don't see it at all. His lazy factor is prevalent though for sure, he's busy a lot and ends up replacing out. Question 4 turned out to be a lot more wifom than I had hoped. In fact its only use really is getting reactions from people saying that scum will act like typical town, which is just wifom as defined, as it is an inverse town tell (not doing what town would do, but town would do X, but then scum would do X to seem town.. etc).

So not really much at all indicative of alignment and I can't do this on the hydra at all, but got a weird contradiction. Shift, care to explain?

I don't really get what you mean. "Says that he reacts only...but uses those answers to anticipate my supposed move of "NO ANSWER U SCUM". I don't get this sentence. At all. Be specific please in exactly what the contradiction is between whatever you're saying, the only thing I can tell is it's about me not liking RQS yet still answering them. I get literally nothing else about this sentence.

If you're saying the contradiction is in me answering them despite not liking them, though I doubt that's what you're referring to, then this is yet another thing I've already answered and if you'll excuse me I'm going to bash my face in with the nearest fire hydrant.

tl;dr: More specific I can't understand what the hell you're saying.

-Shift

[Luxury]

Oh, I got you now, one second, answer incoming.

[Luxury]

1. Saying I'm more of a reactionary person yet anticipating a NO ANSWER U SCUM reaction.

Every time I see RQS this pops into my head, it's hard not to anticipate it. That and when you're usually several pages behind it's a lot easier to react to rather than anticipate what's going on when you're catching up.

As for the using gut, if you'll look at my earlier posts I believe I was mainly using gut. When I partner with Regfan though I become a lot more logical, I believe you know us from another site in which case you would know why we work well together. Overall partnering with Regfan turns me into a much more logical and able being.

As for laziness, the glory of schoolwork and an overwhelming addiction to escapism.

-Shift

[Luxury]

Catching up now.

[Luxury]

Saulres, earlier you voted and then unvoted Anxiety saying you agree with our theory about how the nightkills and lack of them have occurred then saying that you believe that something completely different happened. I don't care if it gives mafia information I want you to explain it in greater dept because right now I'm seeing Anxiety as very likely scum via the D1 roleblock.

I don't like the suggestion of a Jumpei lynch at all, sure it may lead towards full control of the vig power to Saulres who I'm relatively sure is town but I still don't see mafia sharing a kill with a townie at all, it just seems too broken to be possible, furthermore Jumpeis play throughout today and the manner in which he claimed all read as town. I still very much want an Amrun lynch and her standing back and yelling for Jumpeis blood while voting with him on Anxiety is offputting.

How do you know mafia has a normal kill?

Where else could the second kill have possibly come from?

[Luxury]

I'm prodded and not currently at home but I will be in 12ish hours and I'll get to this game then.

[Luxury]

I've done that a lot. Could you give a specific post reference so I can figure out what you're asking about?

Willingly. The speculation of Anxiety being roleblocked N1 and thus mafia given the lack of kill is one of the things that I strongly believe makes sense at this point and you seemed to agree so in 1078 yet dropped it quickly afterwards so an explanation as to why or what else you believe to be the case would be lovely. Also no, with the shared vig claim and the complete lack of kills I very highly doubt inclusion of a SK in the setup. To answer your question in 1478, it's confirmed that Vi was shot either N1 or N2 removing his bulletproof protection and I believe that's where the scums nightkill was on night two.

Not understanding the recent suggestion of Saulres-scum from Snake and Anxiety at all, right now he's my strongest town-read by a long way and I still dislike the idea of votes being on Crab and to a lesser degree Jumpei. And yes, I was online yesterday to post a mod post but that's all I had time on given the fact that it was 4am. Really hoping Shift shows up before the end of this phase though because I know he was leaning slightly against Amrun + Anxiety being the scum-team last we spoke for some reason but he didn't elaborate into why.

@ Amrun -

If you believe Jumpei is scum can you elaborate on who you believe his likely partners are and how it would work given his roleclaim because your continued push on him despite his roleclaim likely coming from town (Which you agreed with) is continuing to strengthen my scum-read on you.

[Luxury]

Also no, with the shared vig claim and the complete lack of kills I very highly doubt inclusion of a SK in the setup.

@ Saulres -

If there's a SK in this setup that can shoot through BPs where is their kill N2?

I'll respond to everything else tomorrow when it's not 5am.

[Luxury]

@ Amrun -

If you believe Jumpei is scum can you elaborate on who you believe his likely partners are and how it would work given his roleclaim because your continued push on him despite his roleclaim likely coming from town (Which you agreed with) is continuing to strengthen my scum-read on you.

---

His claim does make it tricky, but he's the scummiest player by far. We could lose a vig, but we're getting down in numbers and an uncontrollable vig is getting to be more risk than reward. I trust saulres. I don't trust Junpei. MAYBE after Junpei is gone, saulres can vig properly.

VOTE: Junpei After thinking about it, I've decided that Junpei is my strongest read and that that outweighs his claim.

Read the freaking game. I already explained.
I'm DONE explaining. I think it's Junpei + one from the VT pool.

This is all you've done to 'explain it' Amrun, so you can continue yelling and saying you've explained it over and over again but your reasoning for no longer believing Jumpeis claim is likely town is that you read him as scummy without explaining what about his play you consider as scummy.

@ CC -

Can you attempt to sum up your read and thoughts on Anxiety and Snake for me please.

@ Jumpei -

I don't think partial vigs would be able to shoot through a BP vest and if they did it would completely remove the point of there being a BP-Scum if Riggs did indeed have a BP.

[Luxury]

Seriously? I've been explaining why Junpei is scummy from day 1. Try again. bzzzzt.

No, you really haven't.

Why is luxury so much in the background when they have two heads to post with?

Luxury (and neither head) has posted anywhere on site.

Shift has vanished to a degree, I got a message from him about a day and a half-ish or so saying he still thinks Amrun is scum and wants her lynch today but other than that it seems I'm playing this game solo and I've been really busy lately so yeah apologies for my lack of activity.

@ Saulres -

In regards to where I stand on a lynch happening I still 100% want to lynch Amrun today but if needed am willing to change to Anxiety to have a lynch occur though at this point it's uneeded.

@ Anxiety -

We're a compromise lynch for you since when? I don't recall you ever stating you suspected us in the slighest nor do I recall anyone else saying anything similar other than Amrun who seems to have randomly dropped her scum-read on us.

@ Crab Cannon -

I'm not fully understanding your town-stance on Anxiety at this point, especially since you haven't proposed or suggested another turn of events regarding the missing kills N1/N2 from memory but I understand where you stand on Snake though I'm in the opposite boat, I've found Snake relatively townie and had a scum-read on Locke, overall I think the slots town though.

[Luxury]

@Regfan: I saw you've posted in other threads since the current situation, and I only assume you're hoping to talk to Shift. But you may have to fly solo, we're rapidly running out of time...

You nailed it, I'm waiting for him to get online, got a friend to message him so hoping he gets it and comes online soon, otherwise yes I'm going to have to do this solo. Right now I'll tell you though that I don't agree with the suggestion of a Snake lynch at all.

Also what's bothering me massively right now is this: Amrun made it abundantly clear that she thinks Jumpei is mafia, she also clearly stated she believes we were mafia and stated she has bad gut feelings about Crab Cannon yet is voting Anxiety...

[Luxury]

@Regfan

: So Junpei said he's going to hammer Amrun. Does that mean you'll just let it happen because that's your preferred lynch?

I spoke with Shift about half an hour ago (He was on his phone so the convo was short) and he has no particular qualms with an anxiety lynch at all. I'm about to head to work but he has promised to come post here and likely hammer in about an hourish. Biggest thing we mentioned though is if Anxiety flips scum like we think he will you need to be shooting Amrun.

[Luxury]

Apologies for my absence, I'm very very busy during the week and I've gotten pretty bored with the game since my reads haven't been changing at all recently. Plus, every time I was about to post I scrolled down to see Regfan had beat me to it. Time zones don't help anything either.

Regfan and I are both pretty set on Amrun+Anxiety and as such I'll be hammering. Crab/Saul are 100% town, me and Regfan agree on every read so far. We briefly discussed a chance of a third party but it's not important, right now we're focusing on lynching a scumread.

VOTE: Anxiety

If that ends the game, I won't feel bad. Scum have had so many chances to hammer one of Amrun/Anxiety if they're town it's ridiculous, and this strengthens our read.

Should go without saying that in our opinion Amrun needs to die tonight if Anxiety flips scum.

-Shift