Mafia 108 - Mafia With The Quickness - over!
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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WARNING: TANGENTIAL RANT AHEAD.
I do not wish this to become a distraction to finding scums in this game, but I have to get something off my chest regarding general mafia theory.
Your initial research is bullshit. I don't want you to do this in-game, because it will ultimately serve as a huge distraction to actually finding scum, but after this game I'm going to make a thread. In said thread, I want you to explain how your observation of RQS vs RVS constitutes a valid analysis of a game which has literally dozens (and possibly hundreds) of variables. Are you really naive enough to believe that RQS vs RVS is the sole (or even a primary) cause of victory in Mafia?Netopalils wrote:Unfortunately, there have not been enough games using the random question system to give a good statistical analysis. My initial research shows, though, that it has more often led to town victories. Most of the games that I have read in which the random question system leads to a mislynch are due to the town lynching the questioner for going against the established norm of the site. With more question games, this stigma would be alleviated.
Ultimately, the Random Whatever the Fuck You Want to Call it Stage is nothing more than an icebreaker. The RWFYWTCS is significantly LESS important than the pages immediately after RWFYWTCS. I don't care if it's RQS or RVS or Random-Theory-Discussion-Stage or anything else. But people don't find scum through the arbitrary start-of-game crap. They find scum through whatever comes AFTER the arbitrary start-of-game crap.
END RANT.
That said, we should lynch Bogre.-
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Kmd4390 wrote:
Comments on what has happened so far?Glork wrote:WARNING: TANGENTIAL RANT AHEAD.
I do not wish this to become a distraction to finding scums in this game, but I have to get something off my chest regarding general mafia theory.
Your initial research is bullshit. I don't want you to do this in-game, because it will ultimately serve as a huge distraction to actually finding scum, but after this game I'm going to make a thread. In said thread, I want you to explain how your observation of RQS vs RVS constitutes a valid analysis of a game which has literally dozens (and possibly hundreds) of variables. Are you really naive enough to believe that RQS vs RVS is the sole (or even a primary) cause of victory in Mafia?Netopalils wrote:Unfortunately, there have not been enough games using the random question system to give a good statistical analysis. My initial research shows, though, that it has more often led to town victories. Most of the games that I have read in which the random question system leads to a mislynch are due to the town lynching the questioner for going against the established norm of the site. With more question games, this stigma would be alleviated.
Ultimately, the Random Whatever the Fuck You Want to Call it Stage is nothing more than an icebreaker. The RWFYWTCS is significantly LESS important than the pages immediately after RWFYWTCS. I don't care if it's RQS or RVS or Random-Theory-Discussion-Stage or anything else. But people don't find scum through the arbitrary start-of-game crap. They find scum through whatever comes AFTER the arbitrary start-of-game crap.
END RANT.
That said, we should lynch Bogre.Glork wrote:That said, we should lynch Bogre.-
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That's because you'd rather ask silly questions than lynch scums.Netopalis wrote:
I disagree.Glork wrote:That said, we should lynch Bogre.-
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Dammit, Bogre.
Original Roll String: 1d21 2-Sided Dice: (1) = 1-
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I'm sure you can figure it out if you bother to read and think.Maemuki wrote:
Actually people mention it before I do, or I need to bring it up for some reason. I wish I could go through a game without someone, anyone mentioning it.She's mentioned that in every game I've played with her in, I think, so I don't think its anything beyond a disclaimer for her meta.
Oh yay dice rolls, what do the numbers on the dice mean, Glork? Why did you use dice?-
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Kmd4390 wrote:I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.
That sure changed quickly for bien ga "pretty solid read."Kmd4390 wrote:Ok, Mae is town.-
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I take the prize back.Kmd4390 wrote:
Yeah. More information helps.Glork wrote:Kmd4390 wrote:I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.
That sure changed quickly for bien ga "pretty solid read."Kmd4390 wrote:Ok, Mae is town.
The correct answer was, "When I said 'solid read' I was really just talking out my ass."
How solid are your other "solid reads"?-
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Big Red X.Kmd4390 wrote:It was a solid read considering the information availible at the time.
Neto, I still think is scum. Haylen, nothing has really changed. Saint is probably still town. You're probably town. Bogre is probably town. Netlava is probably scum.
You can't say that a read was "solid given the context/information." That gives you license to "change your mind" based on "more information" at virtually any time of your choosing.
Unvote, Vote: kmdfor weasel-wording.-
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If you think there's a reasonable chance that your read would change, you shouldn't use words like "solid" and "probably."Kmd4390 wrote:
Well when one of my reads changes, I'm not going to keep pushing the original read.Glork wrote:
Big Red X.Kmd4390 wrote:It was a solid read considering the information availible at the time.
Neto, I still think is scum. Haylen, nothing has really changed. Saint is probably still town. You're probably town. Bogre is probably town. Netlava is probably scum.
You can't say that a read was "solid given the context/information." That gives you license to "change your mind" based on "more information" at virtually any time of your choosing.
Unvote, Vote: kmdfor weasel-wording.
You just stated that Netlava is "probably scum." Do you really think there is a greater-than-50%-chance that he is scum? If you are that certain, why aren't you kicking and screaming for his lynch? Aprobablescumlynch D1 is something that ANY town would take.-
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So you were talking out your ass, like I said.Kmd4390 wrote:
It's more persuasive that way. And at the time, I was confident in the read.Glork wrote:If you think there's a reasonable chance that your read would change, you shouldn't use words like "solid" and "probably."
Not remotely the same thing. Please answer my question.kmd wrote:
There's a greater than 50% chance that I'd pick him as scum now.Glork wrote:YDo you really think there is a greater-than-50%-chance that he is scum? If you are that certain, why aren't you kicking and screaming for his lynch?-
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I can't tell if you're just playing the fool or not, but I'm going to try to explain this very clearly.Kmd4390 wrote:No, I believed the read to be accurate.
No, there isn't a 50% chance on anyone's alignment.Glork wrote:Please answer my question.
In your average 12-13 player game, there are 3-4 scums, which is 25-33%. If you are protown, then at the start of a game, any other player has a 25-33% chance of flipping scum if they were to be lynched immediately.
You stated that a player (in this case, Netlava) is "probably scum." By its very definition, the word "probably" means that you believe there is a >50% chance that Netlava is scum.
Now, there are two things that I want to know:
1) If I were to dayvig Netlava right now, do you think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum? I want you to think about what that means before answering.
2) If the answer to the above is "yes, I do think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum," why aren't you pushing his lynch?-
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I dobut it's even things he already knows. It sounds to me like he's just trying to get people to fall into his line of thought.Annachie wrote:
Bull. Sounds more like attempted justification for things you already know.Kmd4390 wrote:I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.
FOS KMD
Your post, annachie, is exactly in line with the original point I was trying to make, which is: Very rarely does a player actually have a "solid read" on Page 2 of a game... much less FOUR "solid reads."
KMD was talking bigger than he actually thought, and that implies that his voiced "opinions" are insincere.-
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By the way, I was totally going to make the obligatory "pics or it didn't happen" re: camn and Haylen, but I decided to be the bigger man. For once.-
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I show them mine if they show me theirs? O.oAnnachie wrote:
That would require a different ort of photo proof.Glork wrote:By the way, I was totally going to make the obligatory "pics or it didn't happen" re: camn and Haylen, but I decided to be the bigger man. For once.-
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Has Elli used said playstyle to success in past game?
BabyJesus's playstyle would have made your eyes explode, Neto, but he was one of the finest scumhunters MafiaScum has ever seen.-
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I'm not asking if his side won or lost. I mean, were his own ultimate suspicions more or less accurate?-
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Do you think that Elli's reasons were "wrong" in the previous game where he ultimately found/voted/lynched/whetevered the scums?-
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Bleh, didn't realize it was ongoing.
Neto, the point I'm trying to circle around to is that there's a very reasonable chance that Elli has a method to his madness. Like I said, go look up some games that BabyJesus played. You would HATE his posting, his playstyle. But he was uncanny at being able to find scums while looking like he was just randomly labeling people "town" or "scum."
That's not to say that I believe Elli is protown, or that his suspicions are correct here. But Elli has piqued my interest. I think there will be pressure for him to be accurate here, else he's going to have a noose around his neck soon enough.-
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Undecided. I do agree with you that his "scumhunting to words posted" ratio is depressingly low, but I'm not willing to call it definitively scummy at the moment. This particular spat seems to be little more than a conflict in playstyles.Ellibereth wrote:Glork, what do you think about Neto?
Vote: Neto-
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I don't think people make that assumption. I think that they can be persuaded to follow said person, but the playstyle is more results-driven than any other. If Elli can make it work, fine. If not, he's going to have to change or face a lot of early lynches.Netopalis wrote:Even a broken watch is right twice a day. Ellibereth has been right on occasion, but his posts show no real reasoning behind said suspicions. I attack players of all statuses for this - I'm good friends with Albert, but him and I have butted heads over this issue on a number of different occasions.
I think that part of the problem is that, since there have in the past been players who used cryptic methods to achieve results, it is automatically assumed that a person who plays cryptically gets results. I played a game in which Battle Mage was *convinced* that I was scum without posting reasoning. He then attacked me when I asked for reasoning and the town followed because he apparently has this mystical aura about him that makes people follow him. I was town, of course, and BM ended up killed right before the scum won the endgame.
Also, BM is a horrible example to use. If BabyJesus is the paragon of said playstyle, BM is the anti-Christ. It's sad to know that, after years of being on Scum, BM hasn't realized that he just can't make it work.
On a semi-related note, you called Elli's playstyle "deadweight if not downright scummy." Are you okay with potentially cutting away "deadweight town" on D1?-
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For someone who complained about sub-optimal D1 success rates, this is a very odd stance for you to take. This post says to me "well, we tried to find scum, but in the absence of being able to do so, I'm okay lynching Elli instead."Netopalis wrote:Glork: Yeah, I'm perfectly fine with a policy lynch, given that there have been substantial scumhunting efforts made during the day, the policy lynched player has at least a bit of scummishness and that there is not a strong reason to do otherwise. As said earlier, D1 lynches are statistically bad - the vast majority of them are mislynches. Therefore, if we're probably going to mislynch anyway, it's best to mislynch the player that will contribute the least. I also find, however, that often times the player that you want to policy lynch is the player that's scum anyway.
I can't work my head around the notion that you cite "improving D2 gameplay" as a reason to do away with the Random Voting Stage, then sit here and tell me that "well since D1 lynch rates are bad anyway, we might as well policy lynch." It's a vast double standard, and I don't like it at all.-
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You're conceding that Elli isn't a good scum target but is a good "policy lynch," which implies inside information.-
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I just don't buy your sincerity regarding Elli's scumminess, and I still think your willingness to settle for a policy lynch betrays your call for better D1s.
"X is scummy, but even if he's not scum, he's a good policy lynch" is not an uncommon tactic for newish scums to make.
Additionally, if you want better D1 success rates, you should be lynching players only because they are scum. No bullshit secondary reasons like "good information" or "policy lynch" or "I think X is trying to get back at me." Protown players don't try to weed out weak townspeople. Your one and only job is to hunt SCUM -- not to try to alter another person's playstyle, because you think they're "being unhelpful."
Finally -- and this has nothing to do with you being scum or town -- I think you need to get over yourself and this ridiculous idea that anybody would "come into a game" with revenge over a previous game/attack on their mind. I don't know what happened between you and Elli in any previous game, but fucking get over it. This is a different game, and this "he's trying to get back at me so he's being unhelpful" notion you've got in your head is either misguided paranoia or another bullshit, malicious excuse. Either way, it is neither needed nor wanted in this game.-
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I suppose that's fair enough. But I think you're putting too much faith into logic. I'm not going to say that we're playing with the Joker or anything, but people do irrational things all the time. Seeking to find a logical explanation for human behavior is rather naive.Netopalis wrote:Oh, and Glork, another thing: I'm only choosing to assume that Ellibereth is still angry at me because his actions make no sense otherwise. He came into this game swinging at me to the fences for little-to-no reason. The only thing that I could think of was that he was still mad at me. I don't think it's that unreasonable of a position. Perhaps I'm wrong. I really hope that I am. But in the absence of a logical explanation to the contrary, I'm forced to accept the only answer that seems logical to me.-
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How does "for poops and giggles" grab you?Netopalis wrote:What are your reasons? Several have been thrown around, but what are yours specifically?-
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You pretty much took the words right out of my mouth. It's ironic that Annachie is going after me because he can't "pin me" to anything, when he can't be arsed to vote at all.Bogre wrote:
The cautious scum is cautious.Annachie wrote: It doesn't. I would ask you for something you can be pinned too to some degree incase Mae flips. Probably why I really voted in this game yet. Nothing I want to be pinned too.
Do you think my vote was random?SaintKerrigan wrote:Glork, did you really throw out a random vote at this stage of the game? We aren't in RVS anymore.-
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"Shits and giggles" means "because I felt like it," not "randomly."
I assure you, there was an actual reason behind my vote. Though even if there weren't, it wouldn't be the first time I random voted on Page 10.-
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Two questions for KMD: Going back to your early "four solid reads on Page 2" thing, I'm once again curious about your flip-flop on Mae. Your initial post was on Post 36. You had changed your mind regarding Mae by Post 60.
1) What caused that initial, misguided scum interpretation?
2) What caused you to change your mind about Mae?-
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In other news, a cursory re-read of the first eight pages says:
There is a very tangible Neto/Gayle connection, as Elli noted.
Annachie looks bad.
Haylen's in the process of posting and slept through the meat of the discussion, so she gets a free pass for now.
Mae deserves more heat (and, consequently, needs to post more substantial content).
Camn may be paired with Neto and/or Gayle. Weak connection, but certainly tangible.
camn: In Post 171, you push Neto for accusing kmd of "flailing," then in Post 187, you make a very loud vote for Elli after his spat with Neto. In 207, you state that you don't think the argument is "scum/scum." I've taken that to mean that you think at most one of {Neto/Elli} is scum. Then in your most recent post, 234, you ask critical questions of both players.
I've spent the last few minutes trying to work out what's going on inside that head of yours, and I just can't. Which (if either) of these two players do you think has a reasonable chance at being scum? If both, are the scum together? Which of the two is more likely to be scum?
I feel like a bunch of people have an above-average chance of being scum, but no one or two people stand out right now. There's probably a lurkerscum, and then a couple of semi-to-normally-active scums about right now.-
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I can provide you with a list of questions to respond to, if you'd like.Maemuki wrote:
Mmmm, I see. What do you want me to talk about?and, consequently, needs to post more substantial content-
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1) Which player do you think is most likely scum? Why?
2) If that player were killed right now as scum, which player do you think is most likely to be that player's scumbuddy? Why?
3) How do you feel about Elli's play so far?
4) Are you scum?
5) How do you feel about my play so far?
6) How do you feel about kmd's attitude that you are probably protown?
7) Was your response to Question #4 a lie?
8) How do you feel about the fact that, on Page 11, Annachie and Netlava are not voting for anybody?
9) Name two players you would like to see post more suspicions/content.
10) Who did you target last night?
And, for extra credit, take one player from your answer to #9 and convince them to answer the same ten questions I just asked you.
I expect you to hand in your quiz at the end of the period, at which point it will be graded and your course grade will be mailed home to your parents.-
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IDK why you'd lol. I expect those questions to be answered, and I'm not moving off of Mae until they are.kmd wrote:Glork, 255, I lol'd.-
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Unvote, Vote: Neto
I like wagoning. I also like seeing claims.-
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No, I'm voting you because sometimes I enjoy bandwagoning, and I would like to see a claim from you.Netopalis wrote:Glork: You've attacked me several times for talking about theory too much...but now you're voting for me because we have a difference in theory? That is illogical. I'm not going to be baited into another MD discussion, and it appears to me that you're trying to make me start down that road again so that others will attack me for it. I find that to be scummy.
Sure, there's the fact that you showed an inconsistency in willing to settle for an Elli lynch. Sure, there's the fact that your reasons for voting Elli are largely mediocre-at-best. Sure, there's the fact that I have percieved potential scum connections between you and other players.
But no, clearly I felt like just bandwagoning you for no reason at all. And for "theory."-
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I never said anything of the sort. Check your sources.Netopalis wrote:Finally, you are the one who said that you were voting me because I disliked bandwagons. That is a theoretical point.-
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You are incorrect.
"I like wagoning" means that I like wagoning. It has nothing to do with anything or anybody else.-
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Agree, wholeheartedly. If you're going to hide behind "not-voting," I'm going to treat every FoS, every word of dislike as the equivalent of a vote.Bogre wrote:
So you:Annachie wrote:Couple of nice mis-reps there, but If I'm not willing to be held accountable for the reason for my vote, then I shouldn't vote.
Voting with no reason, or for "Shites and giigles" is not helpful because there's nothing you can be held accountable for if you're wrong.
A) Don't want to be held accountable for anything yourself.
B) Want to hold others accountable for their votes, and dislike it if they aren't.
That is, I believe, the definition of scum play.
Protown players want 100% traceability. They are willing to be held accountable for anything and everything they say, as significant or insignificant as it may seem. And that is because they have NOTHING to hide. Your insinuation that you can be excused from critical analysis or from the responsibility of looking for scum, just because you haven't slapped down an official vote, is ridiculous. You are just as responsible for your voiced suspicions as I am for my voiced suspicions, whether either of us has voted or not.
In fact, more often than not, the ability to find scum is not merely in voting patterns, but in reading between those lines. Some would argue that suspicions not backed up by votes are MORE significant than those coupled with votes.
That said, I want you to give me a quick sentence or two (or more) about each player and how scummy they are.-
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Shh.... baby steps. Baby steps.Maemuki wrote:
Good to know! Any thoughts on the remaining 10 players?Netlava wrote:I don't find netopalis scummy currently.
I could hop to a Zachwagon, but I still want Neto to claim.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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I just stated that I could get on board a Zachwagon.Maemuki wrote:
Fiiine. What's your opinion on one player that is not me, Neto or yourself?Shh.... baby steps. Baby steps.-
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Yep, the three people attacking you are most likely to be scum together. Brilliant theory.
I know this is OMGUSy, but your triple-threat of OMGUS (with the added Zachrulez OMGUS alternate) actually makes me want to put my vote back ON you.-
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EBWOP: Also, I have no idea why you keep trying to accuse me of dumping on your "no bandwagoning" theory.
FIRST of all, I stated in my initial post that it was a side-rant and that I didn't want to get into a distracting discussion. It's not my fault that you insist on trying to have the last word in any debate you get into.
Secondly, I never attacked your abhorrence to bandwagoning. All I wanted to point out was that whether we use RVS or RQS or Random Anything Else, it has little impact on whether a town wins the game. I also attacked your predisposition against Elli, because you assumed he held over some slight from another game and because you were advocating his lynch based on a difference in playstyles.
Thirdly, if you'd bother to think for just a few minutes, I doubt you'd be flatly stating that the points against you are weak/bull. The questions I asked you about Elli and the previous games were because I wanted to see if your countersuspicion of Elli was genuine or not. I asked you about his behavior in past games, and whether it was fruitful. I understand that you as a player percieve Elli's playstyle to be more disruptive than helpful, but I wanted to see if you legitimately thought that he was scummy for it, or if you were using playstyle as a tool/excuse to vote for him.
Fourthly, yeah, I sometimes have a tendency to attack people without letting them know why I suspect them right off the bat. I've found that players' actions and words tend to be more revealing when they are put in an uncomfortable situation. I don't always do this, and I won't do it throughout the course of the game, but that's exactly what I did to you. You seemed to have this near-obsession with making sure that every post and every word was distinctly beneficial to the town, so I took the exact opposite approach to rile you up a little bit and see how you respond.
And what did I see? Well what I see right now is that you seem to have a problem with anybody who disagrees with you, whether you think it's due to differences in theory, differences in playstyle, or other suspicion of scumminess. A few months ago, I would have ranted and raved for your lynch, no-questions-asked, but I actually just got finished with a game in which Ortolan did the same thing (everyone who suspected/disagreed with him was scum, everyone who agreed with him was protown), and he turned out to be protown. Eventually, I came around to the right conclusion but the combination of his loudness/forcefullness and his tendency to OMGUS people was a major contributing factor to the town's loss.
Bottom line, I haven't decided if you are scum yet or not. But what I have decided is, at this point, your play has been more disruptive to the game than just about everyone else's.-
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Not really. It should be pretty obvious to anybody with a shred of common sense that my post was in reaction to Elli's post.Netopalis wrote:Glork: Making my point
But hey, if you want to nitpick and argue semantics, I can add that to the list of reasons to lynch you.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Okay, now you're definitely either scum or completely delusional, considering:Neto wrote:Attacking those who attack you?Maemuki,Glorkand KMD.
A) I attacked KMD before anybody else did;
B) I went after Annachie, who I don't believe ever placed any suspicion on me
C) I've stated my willingness to pressure Zach, who has also not attacked me.
Innoway do I fit into the "attacking those who attack you" category. You've got nothing on me, because you know I've got you pinned, so you just arbitrarily put me into one of those three blanket categories.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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EBWOP: D) I also grilled and voted Mae to get her to talk, and she hasn't attacked me. (In fact, she called me protown when I attacked her, so SHE doesn't fit into that category as well.)
You're making shit up at this point. You need to hang.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Someone accused me of random-voting on Page 10, and it reminded me of FTF, so I posted as such. I intended it as a completely innocuous statement (by the way, I've done that before!), not as a defense of any kind.Yos wrote:Page 10: I don't think Glork's vote on Mae was random, and he's saying it's not, so I'm a bit confused why he felt
he had to go find and example where he random voted on page 10 as town. I don't mind votes without reasons, personally,
but the fact he gave that meta-defense seems a bit odd to me. Glork?
As I recall, I didn't even say I did it "as town," so there was no meta/defense involved. I was just stating that it's not unheard of.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Can't wait for Netlava to flip protown so I can destroy the people who wagoned him to death.-
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Glork Burdened by Proficiency
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Last minute wagon on someone you know is unlikely to be able to pop in and claim?SaintKerrigan wrote:
So why do you think he is protown?Glork wrote:Can't wait for Netlava to flip protown so I can destroy the people who wagoned him to death.
Scum are hoping to snipe a power role. Guaranteed.