Micro 1018: The King's New Robes | Game Over
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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at this point reading through the thread i am super pissed offIn post 253, ArcAngel9 wrote:
Wrong answer.In post 252, Not_Mafia wrote:
MysticIn post 250, ArcAngel9 wrote:
Then tell us what is your role?In post 249, Not_Mafia wrote:I'm not lying
Hard Claim. I lied before.
I am Town Mystic. I targeted ActionDan on night 0You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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This seems technically totally possible? Scum seamstress using her ability under this setup seems to just confirm the other town mystic. And it's not really a strong enough ability to justify the trade-off.In post 640, Dwlee99 wrote:Can someone actually explain how we know we aren't in
Mafia Seamstress, Mafia Actress, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic x2, Vanilla Townie x4You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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this thread's full of people who have been playing this game for way too long to not understand the setup
You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Okay, so I do think PP is town because of some convincing obliviousness earlier in the game. T3 is town. I'm town. Everyone dead so far is almost definitely town. That leaves the two in ArcAngel, Dwlee, ActionDan. I'm honestly pretty unsure which but I do lean town on Dwlee (gg if you and enchant have faked the performance yallve done itt tbh). And yeah as long as we lynch in those 3 (which we do have room to do before losing) then we win. Another way to put it is just that we win as long as one of the town in {me, ArcAngel, Dwlee, ActionDan} avoids ever getting mislynched. Maybe that can be me, maybe it's safe to let that be Dwlee. I guess I do agree w the comment before that even after 4 mislynches our odds of winning remain pretty high.
Probably about to vote ArcAngel.
It doesn't feel totally right but there are good reasons for it (weird vt fakeclaim, non sequitor "counter claim", weird selfvote) and worst case scenario we get an info dump from the people she's targetted over the course of the game that conceivably identifies a Seamstress in the off chance that both she and dwlee are town.
But I guess that depends on which targets they've claimed?
ArcAngel has claimed...
ActionDan
Dwlee
Rockhopper
someone else
Enchant/Dwlee has claimed...
NotMafia
ActionDan
Rockhopper
someone else
why haven't you guys claimed your N3 targets?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Just to be clear, Mafia with Seamstress has the option not to act in order to keep ambiguous whether there is 1 or 2 mystics. As long as there are only two Mystic claims and no one claims a Suit and no one flips Seamstress, setup is indistinguishable between first and second possibilities. Lynching Mystic claims until a non-Mystic flip (all Mystic flips are mechanically confirmed even if Actress doesn't act) OR lynching Seamstress is only way to clarify between setup 1 and 2 here.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Another option I leave out above of course is the case where we lynch a Mystic and their flip exposes a Seamstress. Both mystics have claimed ActionDan as targets and ArcAngel has claimed Dwlee and each has selected one more unknown target last night. So odds are pretty good that we know after today whether there's a Seamstress among us?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Sorry for multiposting. I just wanna conclude: there's a lot of value in lynching a Mystic claim today, whether it's ArcAngel or Dwlee.
Suppose we're in the second setup where there are 2 mystics and 1 seamstress. Lynching ArcAngel (for example) is then guaranteed to check Dwlee and ActionDan and a third person (almost definitely either me or PP) for that role. This gives town a ~2/3 chance of identifying the seamstress and getting us a free lynch tomorrow.
Suppose instead we're in the first setup and one of Dwlee and ArcAngel is scum. Lynching the town among them similarly triggers a check of various players for the seamstress role, building our confidence that we're in that setup (though not confirming - there's one player not covered by the check). We then have pretty good odds of finding scum by lynching the other mystic claim.
Again assuming we're in the first setup but first lynching the scum among them confirms the remaining mystic as town. We then have a pool of 3 people to identify the last scum in (me, actiondan, pp). Because the game has gone from 4v2 to 3v1, we get two opportunities to do that.
Maybe my math is off here but at any rate this does seem like where we areYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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I merely think it's possible. Thing in your iso that most puts me off is the context of your "counterclaim" for NM. Given that it was always possible for there to be 3 mystics, I just don't get it. That plus the fact that you lied about being a VT in the first place.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Mafia Actress x2, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic, Vanilla Townie x5
Mafia Seamstress, Mafia Actress, D1 Town Bride, Town Mystic x2, Vanilla Townie x4
to be clear, position setups are:
dwlee actress
t3 bride
1 actress, 2 VTs in me, pp, dan (but i'm town etc)
and
dwlee mystic
t3 bride
1 seamstress 1 actress 1 vt in me, pp, dan (but im town etc)
tedious tedious dwlee where is the solve thoYou can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Wait ok I need to be more serious this is LYLO. Ahem.
I ended up sticking with Arcangel out of inertia after I misunderstood what Mystics do. It was a mistake that led me to ignore my own gut feelings surrounding the slot despite my reservations about the slot managed their claim. I shouldn't have done it.
If I wanted to learn a big lesson from that, I would trust in PP because ignoring setup stuff my gutread on them is the most strongly town. But enchant/dwlee do come at a close second. Couldn't we just split the difference and take down Dan?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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it's not possible! well me being bad at mafia is possibleIn post 793, Pink Panthers wrote:
How is that possible? Even if Dan is scum, someone who isn’t us has to be his buddy?In post 788, Psyche wrote:gut says this looks town v town so i am obviously bad at mafia and maybe people in general
I don’t tr Dwelee because I don’t think honestly he srs us for trying to derail Arc wagon. So it’s giving me really bad vibes.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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i legit want an explanation for every time you said this and last phase that the game is solved after arc lynchIn post 759, Psyche wrote: tedious tedious dwlee where is the solve tho
also tell me about your trip from voting dan to "psyche and Dan"In post 774, Dwlee99 wrote:PP fmpov you pushed me over arc and so no you don't get any credit for that.
You're also not conftown for the bride because you could have seamstressed or actressed for the VT suit. I wasn't here when you obvtowned so I'll have to go read. My gut is psyche and Dan but I need to do reading which I can't do while moving into a new apartment.You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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it just seems like it could easily be strategic laziness. so many of your posts in the iso are lines like "most people seem to think there has to be scum in Arc" while at the same time strongly leaning on a setup-based argumentfundamentally dependenton that assumption to justify doing no further scumhunting and convince people to join the wagon. even your vote for rock was basically "well this guy likes the wagon so whatever". and yet you say you've only made one negative contribution all game?You can't step in the same river twice.-
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Psyche he/theySurvivorhe/they
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