Mini 586 - Blood Red Mafia - Game Over!

[Amor]

Vote:Shepherd_of_Wolves

For obvious reasons.

[Amor]

Unvote Vote: coheed

for blurting random stuff to distract us!

Um, this is the random voting stage?

[Amor]

malthusis wrote:
Unvote Vote: coheed for blurting random stuff to distract us!


Um, this is the random voting stage?

I'm just trying to start some conversation. What's wrong with that?

Minor FoS: Amor

And I conversed. Good job.

[Amor]

As for calf19, I do not see a large connection with the little that has been said. My concern is that Coheed has three votes on him, and you have none. Who is watching your back out of the three of them?

What do you mean "watching [his] back"? Coheed got a couple joke votes on him, caf19 didn't. It's a pretty large jump of logic to say that he's being protected.

[Amor]

well maybe caf has a much smarter partner if someone is watching his back, as I said before I really don't have a very strong FoS on Coheed, but this is still the random voting stage and no one seems to be flagrantly summy thus far.

I would like to know tho, Amor, why you are coming to Caf's defense?

I just thought it was bad logic, so I decided to point it out.

Also, since we seem to be out of the random stage,

unvote

.

[Amor]

I definitely think Malthusius isn't looking good right now, between his "Major FoS" on Macavenger and the use of "I did it to create conversation", which always makes me twitch. It's worth noting that in this case he wasn't even being called out for saying it, just disagreed with. At the very least, he's very defensive.

FoS: Malthusius

Shepherd_of_Wolves is pushing the caf/Coheed connection hard. caf has a point in that he doesn't control who he votes for, but in Shepherd's reply to him he doesn't really respond to that and instead goes off on something completely different. In any case, I don't think scum would openly defend each other so early.

[Amor]

If you read post 59 you will see that I did reply to him as such:

Caf, I understand that you cannot control who votes are cast on you.

Let me say, he is right that he has no control. But, scum have an image to play. They know each other and definitely influence the voting of fellow scum. No, he cannot control the vote, but if he is scum, he has influence.

Here was your original response:

Caf

, I understand that you cannot control who votes are cast on you. With Coheed saying:

Caf does have a point, It's not like he has some super ability to control who people vote for, he only controls his vote.

I am starting to see some mutual effort between the two of you to lean towards each other. He is sticking up for you by that comment. You previously tried to relieve the vote count from him by accusing his voters of teaming up when you said:

What's up with this teaming-up of Rosso and Darla?

Unvote; vote: Rosso Carne

obv

.

Yeah, you say that you understand it, but you really don't rebut the point. Instead you attack Coheed for agreeing with Caf without supporting your original assertion. If your first attack was wrong, then I really don't see how someone can be at fault for arguing against it. That was what I found weird about your post. However, you've explained above why you still think caf is scummy, so I guess it's alright. You're still very agressive on this though.

I also think Shepherd is trying a bit too hard, but is yet to slip up in any scumtells.

I am gonna go with my gut here and vote:amor I find you the most suspicious of the posters thus far, your defense of caf was never answered for and was ill timed.

What do I have to answer for? I disagreed with the logic used to attack caf, so I said so. Would you rather I sat back and let the town go after someone with bad reasoning? Have I done anything else to make you suspicious?

[Amor]

Riceballtail: you jumped on Mac's wagon without providing any real reasoning. Do you actually find him scummy?

Everyone is scummy until proven otherwise. A good method is to apply some pressure and see if they provide any/more scum tells or not.

I'm not sure I like this idea. Since there are more town then scum, it would seem wiser to assume people are town unless there's compelling evidence either way. And as for applying pressure, it might be useful if people didn't say they were applying pressure when they vote, which alerts the scum (if they are scum) that we're expecting a freakout. Thus we really lose most of the value of a pressure wagon.

I'm not sure about Macavenger as scum right now. His scumhunting methods are suspect, but there haven't been a lot of genuine scumtells. On the other hand, I did find this point worth noting:

About reactions, it seems to me that everyone can react differently, they're helpful, I know, but they dont prove anything.

When did I ever say I thought it proved anything? The only real proof in mafia comes with death.

This is dodging the question. Tajo questioned whether this method would lead us to scum and Mac dodged with semantics. Obviously you thought it was valuable or you wouldn't have voted based on it. Also, the last sentance seems to be setting up for a "Oops, he was town" post later. This makes me more than a little suspicious, but probably not enough to hop on the bandwagon.

[Amor]

EBWOP: "compelling evidence either way" should probably be "compelling evidence that they are scum"

[Amor]

You either weren't reading carefully or you just made this up. The part I quoted was a reply tajo made to something Darla said, it was not a question for me. Technically, if you want to accuse someone of dodging the question, tajo never replied to that specifically; however since I was asking in order to gauge his reply and his reply to my other part didn't ring any scum alarms with me, I don't really care. Yes I voted based on it and thought it had some value. That is not the same thing as thinking it proves he's scum.

Technically sure, but it was a criticism of your methods, and you answered it while not really dealing with the point. More semantics.

I don't like Macavenger's methods, but on the other hand I really would like to see Malth post more content.

And I've also noticed Darla doing a lot of defending others and echoing others' arguments, she's done it to me as well. This strikes me as scummy, like she's trying to get on townies' good sides (or protecting her scumbuddies... defending a bunch of people might just be a smokescreen for that.)

FoS:DarlaBlueEyes

I wrote this post up before her recent reply, and just noticed it when I went to preview, but my brief response is that she still doesn't present a good reason to be defending everyone. She says Travis is her biggest suspect so far, but has hardly mentioned him. Not convinced.

[Amor]

Ouch, prodded. I thought I had posted more recently than that.

I don't have time to make a real post now, but I'll definitely do so tonight.

[Amor]

Bah leave me a lone. Do you seriously meta everyone for activity or am I special? I signed up for too many games and I like some more than others.

But as per request:

neutral-leaning scummy: malth
neutral: everyone else

Wow, this is a seriously lazy reply.

The thing that I find suspicious about Darla is not that she's aligned with Malth and therefore is Malth's scumbuddy, but that it seems like most of her actions in this game are defending. She's defended, or at least praised, malthusis, myself and Mac, the last two after voting and unvoting shortly afterwards. She defends more than she attacks, and when she attacks it's weak. Defending is pretty much always good for scum:

1) If the player they're defending is town and that player gets lynched, it makes the defendee look better for defending the.
2) If the player they're defending is town and the defender gets lynched, it makes the defendee look scummy when they're actually town.
3)If the player they're defending is scum, it supports their scum buddy (although it would cause problems if either of them were to be lynched)

Also, defending many people could be used to make it look less suspicious when they do defend their partner. So I think defending more than attacking is scummy. Still, I'm not sure that this alone is enough to vote Darla. I'm kind of having trouble getting a good handle on this game, to be honest.

[Amor]

Amor: Hypocrite. Calls me a lazy poster after being prodded.

Yeah, I've been busy lately, but when I do post I at least try to contribute. "I have no opinions, other than that the top-voted person is slightly scummier than the rest" is not helpful at all.

It's starting to look like Malth's not posting is actual flaking and not lurking, so he will probably be getting replaced soon. I think we should wait for his replacement before lynching him. At the same time, as a reminder the deadline for this day is the 9th, so we should start moving towards a lynch. So, to put my money where my mouth is, I'll go after my other subject and

Vote: DarlaBlueEyes

[Amor]

Welcome, Smoke!

Of course not everyone Darla defends is scum, even if she does turn out to be scum. I explained why scum would also defend townies in my last post. I also don't like the "defense lawyer" idea, while it can help refine an attack it will also ward off legitimate cases and (in this case) deflect attention onto the defender. People are responsible for defending themselves in this game. Their responses can also reveal more about their alignment, and someone else defending them can prevent that.

A lot of people seem to be lurking or at least staying in the background -- Travis, Coheed, caf, and Greasy Spot all fit this description at the moment. This worries me a little.

[Amor]

We only have 3 days left - do we want to ask for that three-day extension today? Personally, I think we should. Consensus doesn't quite seem to have been reached, and we may have a lot to discuss now that malth's been replaced. I guess we can wait another day or two before deciding though.

Eh, I think that we should save the extension for later. It's day 1, so we aren't going off much - another three days wouldn't provide us with a lot more than Malth's defense. The extension would be more useful if we were in lylo or something and had more evidence to go through.

[Amor]

EBWOP: I gues that would be Smokedank's defense now.

[Amor]

I agree that we definitely need to make a lynch today. I don't think the case on Smokedank is particularly strong, but he's better than a no lynch.

What time is "evening GMT+1" in EST?

[Amor]

I agree that we definitely need to make a lynch today. I don't think the case on Smokedank is particularly strong,

Why?

It pretty much amounts to the fact that Malth made a "major FoS" instead of a vote, that he's defending himself instead of scumhunting, and that he was lurking. Well, he was replaced, so obviously he isn't lurking as a strategy, he just flaked. The first two points are legitimately suspicious, but I don't think that they alone make a strong case. I can easily see Malth being a newbie townie who got fed up when he was thrust into the spotlight. So I'm not fully convinced he's scum, which makes me sort of uncomfortable with lynching him, but it's better than no lynch.

[quote="Amor]
I don't like Macavenger's methods, but on the other hand I really would like to see Malth post more content.

I definitely think Malthusius isn't looking good right now, between his "Major FoS" on Macavenger and the use of "I did it to create conversation", which always makes me twitch. It's worth noting that in this case he wasn't even being called out for saying it, just disagreed with. At the very least, he's very defensive. FoS: Malthusius

Please explain why you FoS'd Malthusis earlier partly based on the reaction I gained if you don't like my methods.

Still waiting for your explanation here, Amor.[/quote]

I don't like using "traps" like this to gauge reaction, because in general I find they don't work and can be twisted which ever way the user likes. What would the correct reaction have been from Malth? Still, I thought his reaction was a little suspicious, although ultimately it's a minor point.

Something strange I found rereading. Amor, why do you think his Major FoS is strange?

Like others have said, a random vote isn't something to be majorly suspicious of. So at the vary least it was a jumpy reaction.

[Amor]

Looking back on Malth's posts, all 9 of them, he spends most of the time defending himself. However, he does at one point defend Darla from a connection with Rosso Carne (now goborage). He also gives me a "Minor FoS" for disagreeing with me, though that probably doesn't mean anything. This together with Darla's constant defending, mostly of the scum Malthusius, is enough to make me once again

Vote: DarlaBlueEyes

[Amor]

Darla, what newbies have I jumped on, other than you? I was fairly ambivalent about Malthusius if you'll remember. And I really don't think newness is a sensible explanation for defending everyone like you have been.

[Amor]

SoW, you may as well vote for Darla is you think she's scum. There are only 3 votes on her right now and it's 6 to lynch. If something comes up later in the day you can always take your vote off.

As for me being off the wagon, I would have hammered if we were right up against the deadline, but I wanted to give OG time to claim. caf just got there before me.

[Amor]

If I am being honest after a re-read I don't think amor is scum because he is just too hostile/die scum to now be town imo.

So... do you think I'm scum or not?

Of the exchange between Mac and tajo, I'm siding with Mac here. tajo, your about-face is suspicious and doesn't make a lot of sense. Clearly on D1 you thought Darla was town as well as Malthusius. Town-Darla doesn't know Malthusius's alignment, but she thinks he is also town so she defends him. (Or, as she seems to be claiming, she defends him because she likes defending people.) Malthusius can be scum while Town-Darla still thinks he's innocent. You said that you thought Darla was just making newbie mistakes... couldn't defending someone who turns out to be scum also be a newbie mistake?

At no point on Day 1 did you suggest that Darla's defending was scummy, nor did you say that her and Malthusius seemed too connected. Based on the logic used in your previous posts it is a huge leap to say that Malthusius turning up scum makes Darla look like scum. If Darla looked town before, why can't she now be town who mistakenly defended scum?

Note that I'm not defending Darla, I'm just pointing out that from your previously perspective Malth's flip doesn't logically make her scum. This reeks of distancing to me. Would all three scum defend each other? I would generally say not, but they might rely on the WIFOM potential of such an act, or it could just be newb scum.

FoS:populartajo

[Amor]

Greasy Spot, you make your first post in almost a week, and it's jumping on the bandwagon with no other comment whatsoever? Wow.

[Amor]

I don't like the speed at which this wagon grew, in particular Riceball and Greasy Spot hopping on with no explanation. I'll

Unvote

for now, but I still wouldn't mind seeing a claim out of Darla.

tajo's reversal of opinion still seems like opportunism to me. I guess it could be admitting a mistake he made on Day 1, but even so I don't think Malth's flip alone is enough for such a complete 180. Still, I'm hesitant to think that the scum would put themselves right out in the open like that.

[Amor]

On the roleclaim bit: Darla is still the presumptive lynchee for today. I didn't unvote her because I stopped believing she was scummy, but because I didn't want a quicklynch. So unless someone else pops up as scummier, or something crazy happens, she will presumably be lynched at the end of the day. In this situation, I think claiming if she has a power role wouldn't be a bad idea, although ultimately it's up to her.

[Amor]

Well this game has certainly slowed down.

Darla, didn't you say you were going to claim? That would create some discussion at least.

[Amor]

lol @ greasy spot

[Amor]

I still think Darla is our best lynch today. Her defending style combined with her relationship with Malth makes her scummy, and she hasn't done anything to make me change her mind. tajo and xofelf aren't looking too good either, but I don't think the case on them is as strong.

Since the deadline is coming up, I'll go back and

Vote: DarlaBlueEyes

I think greasy is doing this just for kicks, it's impossible to say what his alignment is right now. We shouldn't lynch him right now, because that seems to be his meta and if there's no evidence either way statistically he's probably town.

[Amor]

Deadline in four days, huh? That's like... soon.

I still think Darla is the scummiest, but I would be willing to vote for xofelf if it'll ensure a lynch.

[Amor]

Xofelf is at L-1 right now by my count. I am willing to drop the hammer if she doesn't post a damn good defense soon.

[Amor]

I think, based on the flavour, that riceballtail was the vig.

A couple people have brought this out, so I will point out that I only would have hammered xofelf because of the deadline, and Greasy Spot hammered a couple days before that. I fully intended to vote him if I had to to get a lynch.

I don't like Darla's most recent post because she was pretty noncomittal on most people, and didn't really call anyone scum. This looks like avoiding attack to me, and is just another reason I think she is probably scum.

Vote: DarlaBlueEyes

[Amor]

Not sure about Darla's claim. It seems pretty convenient timing. Darla, what's the flavour justification for your role? Flavour rolename? Given the way the night scenes and my own role PM were written, I highly doubt that yours just said "You're a miller. You investigate as guilty." Also, why did you choose to claim now and not on Day 2 when you said you were going to?

@ goborage: Millers aren't always open setup, I've seen at least one closed game with a miller.

[Amor]

Darla, could you at least summarize the flavour justification for your role? I'm pretty sure rolename wouldn't break the rules about quoting as well. This seems like a made-up claim to me.

[Amor]

I really don't believe Darla's claim, especially because she has failed to be able to give flavour. I think at this point she is definitely scum and we should lynch her.

The other lynch candidate at this point seems to be Greasy Spot. While his actions so far are far from pro-town, he seems to be blatantly lurking/not taking the game seriously, which is more of a playstyle than a tell. He could well be scum and goofing around, but especially given his meta it's a null tell and odds are he's town.

[Amor]

Activity much? Where's Coheed, Amor?
Darla last question, can you make an analysis of all the people here=?

I'm still here. I've been posting as much as most people.

And I think Darla made a player-by-player analysis a few pages back.

[Amor]

Amor, dont you think we should listen more of what Darla has to say?

Not really. It seems obvious to me that she's scum, so what she says is either manipulation or an attempt to get out of it. She's posted a lot already, so we probably have enough to lead us to her remaining scumbuddy in there, and if not I doubt another couple of posts is going to reveal it. Why not lynch her now? Just because we have a week until deadline doesn't mean we have to wait until then. Actually, I think that regular town lynches are much more informative than lynches right up against the deadline, where most everyone on the wagon can claim they were just doing it to get a lynch.

Of course, if you don't think Darla is scum then you have every reason not to be voting her, but I'm hardly being hasty here.

[Amor]

Ok, hears what I think, GS is being very scummy right now for all the reasons everyone has pointed out several times. He has been anti town and done nothing to help. That being said, he might just be f*cking with us as a unhelpful townie, i really dont know. I think he'd be a good lynch for the day. DBE wagon is also a good one, her connection with Malth and her very oppertunitic Miller claim make her seem very scummer. The hidden link to Jack-Of-All-Trades through the wolfhunter is suspicious. The mod wanted us to know what it is. And after reading it, it could go either way. He could have investigated and got a guilty, or could have used something else. The only thing that really points to it is the "confrimable" bit.

Thats just a quick thing for now since my posting has been lagging(I apologize), I should start to be posting more in a bit since school in ending.

I find this post scummy. Coheed approves of both lynch candidates, but doesn't take a definitive stance on either, and generally doesn't really say anything at all. He seems to be conciously staying in the background. He doesn't stand out nearly as scummy as DBE, but let's not forget about him (as seems to be his strategy if he's scum.)

[Amor]

I agree that goborage's connections with Darla seem pretty solid, and his play hasn't done much to convince me he's town. Given that we've gotten two of the scum, we should probably try to lynch based on connections now, so that would definitely put goborage under suspicion, as well as populartajo to some extent. I will probably be willing to put down a vote after hearing his claim.

[Amor]

I believe Goborage's claim for the most part. We really have no idea what kind of role Martyr is, so we can't assume it's a healing role. With that in mind there's no reason he couldn't be the doc. If so, it lends even stronger credence to Macavenger being town. Based on that, I now have to choose between going after someone with connections to the existing scumpairs, namely populartajo (he defended both D1, then quickly turned around and bussed Darla on D2), and someone who has been individually scummy in Coheed. Tajo has been looking more town lately, but I'm still a little suspicious, whereas Coheed hasn't left us much to analyze. So I'm torn here.

[Amor]

I wouldn't say town is overpowered with Martyr/JOAT/Doc. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if there was another power role in there, considering we clearly have 3 wolves. Keep in mind that we have no real idea what the Martyr does besides assumptions based on the name, which falls perilously close to flavour arguments.

We have to decide between Coheed and Goborage. Nuff said.

Why? You're preventing a false dilemna here, and trying to direct the town's lynch.

On another, Coheed trying to cast doubt on the doctor's claim is the last reason I need to vote him. Setting speculation alone gets us nowhere, try scumhunting.

Vote: CoheedCambria09

[Amor]

EBWOP:

presenting

a false dilmena

[Amor]

I don't really think Greasy is scum right now. This is largely because of his meta of not playing very pro-townly, and because it seems to me Darla tried to deflect suspicion on her to him because he was acting in this way. To me Coheed and populartajo seem like better candidates. I don't think Coheed's post changes anything, it could easily be faked as scum.

Now that Grease has explained he got the games mixed up, do the people suspecting him still want him to claim?

[Amor]

Well now I am just kind of confused. Like SoW said, I can't see scum no-killing 2 nights in a row just to back up a doc claim, so I'm going to have to take gobo at his word for now. That leaves (from my perspective) tajo and GS. I'm going to reread, focusing on those two, before I make a decision.

[Amor]

Okay guys, I've finished my reread and my opinion is pretty much the same. Populartajo's about-face on Darla is still suspect, and I don't quite buy that Malthusius's flip completely changed things for him. He hasn't really done anything scummy since then, but neither has he really been that helpful. His recent fatalistic posts don't sit with me either. GS has been lurking a lot, but seems to be playing to meta, so for the moment I favour popular.

vote populartajo

[Amor]

Wow. At this point I'm seriously considering the remaining scu, having no kills.

I'd like to hear who Gobo protected before I make any decisions, but a Greasy Spot lynch sounds good to me right now.

[Amor]

I was in a game where one of the scum was a "trainee" so if both his teammates were dead he couldn't make the kill. That could be what we have here. The other possibility I can think of is a third party role with no kill, but are there any of those that town would have to kill before the game ends? Maybe lyncher?

Of course, it's always possible gobo just got lucky on his protects. Either way, Greasy Spot seems the obvious choice here.

Vote: Greasy Spot

[Amor]

Shepherd, I don't think a no lynch is a good idea. If we have no kill remaining then it doesn't tell us anything that lynching won't. If there's no kill after a no lynch it still theoretically could have been a protection, although another one will make it seriously unlikely. If there is a kill then we'll end up in LyLo. So I think we should definitely lynch today, and GS is the right target. Macavenger does a better job explaining this than I do.

[Amor]

Well, we seem to have reached an impasse. I am still in favour of lynching Greasy. Shephard, goborage, what are your thoughts? Are you reluctant to vote Greasy, if so why, do you have another suspect, etc.?

[Amor]

Holy shit there was another lone wolf? Wow, I thought I was screwed for sure there.

Good game all.

[Amor]

I was also thinking that I would be recruited if the wolves tried to target me for a kill, which was why I decided to play as pro-town as possible. I actually convinced people I was town a lot better than I did in most games where I'm town.