Mini 2079 - Guns & Roses [Game Over]

[hitogoroshi]

pretty sure 8 roses means the optimal play is for everyone to not say a word about their choice, argue with me in thread if you think different but please no one claim anything until someone gives a good reason.

VOTE: popsofctown

you were the person who taught me how to play league of legends, a clearly immoral thing to do

[hitogoroshi]

VOTE: implosion for posting while this was on my clipboard while I was checking whether I need to "go get an avatar"vote any of the newbies. I do not, unfortunately for imp

don't really like how much you're trying to emphasize voting on known rules. but I'm already voting you, nice

There’s no reason to claim until endgame. The one town gun is basically a named townie. They should claim if run up.

I mean, I think the mafia have very little incentive to take rose, so I think the proper prior probability for gun claims is 2 out of 3 chance to be mafia. And on D1 especially I don't want to give them a chance to shoot.

Hmm, and writing this out now makes me think that maybe we do want to force town gun to claim now (but not which night). If we get one with no cc's it's a confirmed town and if we get a cc we get a 1 in 2 mafia which is a neat deal. But if the claim only happens when strung up then the info becomes effectively worthless. So I'm on team Gun-claim-now. That track for everyone else?

[hitogoroshi]

Disagree, if someone is run up and claims gun, then we see if there's a CC. If there is, and either of them claims to be able to shoot the next night, we let them shoot and lynch whoever said so if the shot fails. If neither of them can shoot the next night, just lynch the one who claimed first, it's not as if we get no info from that-- we still get a 1 in 2.

If gun claims D1 they always get shot N1 and then we lose our conftown. Even worse if they're not N1 gun because then they don't even get a chance to shoot.

that has a lot of knock-on negatives, though. there are twice as many mafia as town guns, so even if pressure is allocated totally randomly (and I mean, the whole point of playing the game is that we're hoping to be more accurate than that), we're more likely to hit the mafia than the gun. at which point they can 100% get the gun to claim anyway if they want, and then we didn't have the conf town voice throughout the day. Also shoot testing has non-definitive negatives cause there are 8-10 roses.

It does kind of stink that the mafia learn the one person who is safe to shoot, yeah, but the only way we avoid that is by only running up town today and tbh I feel like killing mafia instead.

ok see
I was thinking the samething along the same lines of Hito
but if SS and Implo are saying that its better to just wait until someone is ran up, then I think listening to them is correct

lmao come back to the light alisae

oh but even though I disagree with the spec SS prob town

oh btw I think LLD randed wolf

Man are you really gonna make me play this game seriously?

I wanted to play the whole game with the Song Name thing.

Take the fun right out of it, eh?

LLD after storm of swords I have been forever traumatized about self-inflicted PRs sorry but thems the breaks

[hitogoroshi]

Like simple math from my perspective solves that problem, so I'm uncertain exactly what your fear is Hito.

The only thing we have to protect is "not getting the named townie night vig killed before they can use their shot"

and even then town vigs are negative EV sooooooooooooooooooo

honestly most of my "worry" is that I'm feeling hot right now (which is usually the thing that gets me to requeue for mafia) and with some good town pings on the first page and the asymmetric playerlist, I'm feeling like there's a really good chance to hit mafia D1. It's arrogant sure but it is what it is. And like, if you knew up front that the D1 wagon was hitting mafia, you'd really want the town gun to be claimed already, right? otherwise we have this whole stupid song and dance where the mafioso fakeclaims gun, there's a bunch of unvotes, we wait for the real gun to claim and hope it's not one of fakegods rl friends in the process of siteflaking and then we have to dick around d1 finding the less obvious mafia. then sure if the real gun is n1 they can kill the maf, but if the maf is N1 gun also (and they probably are) they still get their free kill also. and if the real gun is any other night it really blows chunks.

maybe I haven't thought about this enough but doesn't it sound a lot easier to just get a conf townie right the heck now, and then also when someone looks like they are mafia we can just fuckin' kill em?

and actually, I wonder if killing mafia D1 effectively denies BOTH bonus kills -

FakeGod:

If there's a single mafioso alive who chose Gun, can they use both their faction kill AND their gun kill in the same night?

oh, and I guess if the above is false, then the strongest mafia configuration would probably be n1 gun on the less experienced one and n2 gun on the most, so you're most likely to get the 4 kills in 2 nights.

[hitogoroshi]

i'm not really sure what you're trying to say, hito. Do you think there's some scenario where we wouldn't try to lynch scum today?

I'm saying that if we run up scum, they always have the option of claiming gun, at which point the CC is just strictly worse than leading with the claim in the first place, where we'd have the conf town from the start and no doubt. Your plan to not CC is a little more interesting, but like...it still lets a n1 mafia gun shoot when we could have stopped it, and it means we're d1 wagoning in some weird quantum hell where we have less time and don't know the alignment of the first big wagon, except for one player who is trying to hide it, but hopefully not in a way where they look suspicious for lying.

like my whole thing is that a.) starting game with a conf town is still a form of town power, b.) stringing up mafia D1 so they can't use a gun shot is really, really nice and c.) letting all claimed guns live D1 is like a foolproof way to give both mafia a chance to live to N1 and shoot the N1 shots they prob have. and in exchange for no conf town voice d1 and guaranteeing both mafia survive the first day, we're getting...a lower chance the mafia shoot the town gun n1? just feels imbalanced to me.

so it's not "there's some scenario where we wouldn't try to lynch scum today" as much as "no gun claims instantly + respecting gun claims when they come means that we have virtually no chance of killing scum D1, since it requires us to hit one, back off, and then hit the other without the flip info from the first". and that makes me feel sad

[hitogoroshi]

@mod: when a player dies is their rose and gun possession revealed and their used-up not-used up on the gun revealed and the night of their rose revealed?

If it is the whole, gun never claims except at L-1, gun enforced claim accuracy with texas justice, plan seems foolproof.

we could also enforce with Regular Ass Justice and then we have any chance of killing a mafia d1, instead of texas justice where we have zero chance. I mean texas justice is a bad result! if that's what happens then we held the vig shot just so they could shoot someone we coulda lynched, instead of using the vig shot to actually do the vig thing!

[hitogoroshi]

re: claiming. Listen, there's two things that go in to the decision on how to treat claims:

1.) Are we going to demand gun claims right away?
2.) Are we going to back off lynching a gun claim if they're our most suspected person?

2 is the one I am worried about. There's a strong chance killing D1 vs N1/D2 denies extra kill pressure from the mafia, so getting a D1 mafia kill is very good, but answer question 2 with "yes" makes it nearly impossible to achieve. If everyone agrees the answer to question 2 is "no" - or at least "if there's a cc gun claim, we lynch the original target that day, instead of texas justice or anything like that" - then whatever, I don't care as much about question 1, even if I think it really ought to be "yes" once question 2 is "no". We can be double "no" and it's whatever. But I'm gonna keep being strident that "yes" to question 2 seems fuckin awful!

re: LLD/Alisae. For LLD, I can just barely believe that LLD scum could fake something like that, but I really don't think she'd be inclined to? LLD-scum tends to bust out the big ATEs in high-pressure situations but I just can't buy LLD-scum being all that worried here. So it feels pretty town/town on the face of it, my meta on LLD makes me more inclined to think it, don't know anything about Alisae to adjust that prior on eir side.

I'll do a separate post for my quote response to keep shit readable.

[hitogoroshi]

also, Alisae saying you seemed scummy so far very early on caught my attention -- it made me reassess your first couple posts, and I felt like they came off as you trying to be present early on without necessarily being

involved

early on.

What does a song lyric do differently here then the "damn" and "aloha" posts, I guess? I tend to find first posts without voting to be more of "present without involved" than those with. (Not that I think SS or implo are mafia for their first posts, because I don't buy in to "present without involved" for the first coupla pages. But if you do, why LLD shitpost-with-vote over nothing-post-without-vote?)

I rarely participate in RVS. I don't change my vote much, especially early, and it has more meaning to myself and to others when they can see my vote on a VC and immediately know it's serious. Argue with me on whether that's a good idea all you want, but it's what I do, and I don't use my vote a lot on D1 anyway because I usually focus on townhunting.

Also, I play by egosearch. So I still wanted to post, even though I had nothing to say.

aaaaah this has happened in like my last three games and I am sick of it (and also it has always come from town) so even though this is getting-MD-in-mafia: voting vs townhunting are not at all at odds - the more you utilize your vote, the more you'll find townies, as well as scum. This is for all sorts of reasons: partly because you can do pressure tests that leave you walking away really liking someones reaction, partly because it introduces you into the conversation more and you have an inherent advantage reading exchanges you're involved in, and especially because being more responsive with your vote lets us read YOU, which will both help the town get reads AND helps YOU find townies by people's responses to your more transparent play. Saying you'll only cast votes past some threshold of 'seriousness' means that in the early game you're not directing the town, you're harder to read, you have no chance of causing an interesting pressure reaction, etc etc. I was like you in my mafia youth and I can say without reservation you are objectively a worse mafia player than the future version of yourself who's eking every last drop of advantage outta your vote. the good news is that you can #GlowUp in this very game! cast your vote in your next post my friend!!

VOTE: Vote: Something_Smart
I'm sheeping LLD.
Not on her top read cause I don't understand that one but I like the logic on S_S.

Hey pops, what the hell? If I'm openwolfing, that means that I'm so smug about being the gee-darn mafia that I'm not even trying to hide it and just playing for maximal advantage for my team. that is a pretty serious accusation and I was excited to hear more! but instead you just get off my wagon without a word on how I'm openwolfing and instead sheeping LLD but not even her primary read? When you just said you can't read LLD and figure that if she's scum you're just catching her on associatives with her partner?

renewing my vows

VOTE: popsofctown

well it is 1st day. I read all the threads and I am gonna go with what I see so far....

VOTE: LLD

You need to vote with bold text or VOTE: tags so it's easily visible.

Who do you think is

least

likely to be mafia so far?

[hitogoroshi]

spicy read list to keep this new page fresh n' tasty

TOWNIE BROWNIES
LLD - town-looking 1v1, plus freakouts that make more sense from LLD-town (who goes off when she feels wronged) vs LLD-scum (who goes off when she feels cornered)

AIGHT
something_smart - still wrong about how to play mafia but level of cooperation vs resistance is right in that creamy center. woulda been a townie brownie but willingness to proxy vote is always a :s outta me
implosion - nice and calm pro-town posting but nothing that can't be faked
alisae - town looking 1v1 but I don't have the priors on alisae to read more in to it like I can for LLD and I don't like that e hasn't moved eir vote after unvoting LLD.

NULL
xyzzy - but I think having more vote justification out of xyzzy will make it easy to judge one way or the other, so I expect this to move
justincase1017 - pretty bog standard newbie posting can't read one way or the other yet
Kml100, SaeWat - no posts

OH DANG
popsofctown - bad vote hop and diminishing of responsibility
Agoodcivilian555 - don't like the" seconding justincase" when justincase's vote was explicit sheep

[hitogoroshi]

pretty sure 8 roses means the optimal play is for everyone to not say a word about their choice, argue with me in thread if you think different but please no one claim anything until someone gives a good reason.

hito why did you think this

so basically I had the same thought I do now of "D1 mafia lynches are really good, so we shouldn't give them opportunity to claim stuff that will defuse their wagons". But I kinda thought that mafiascum being mafiascum we'd have a shitload of guns and very few roses, so I was imagining a world with like, two roses. And I was thinking "roses should claim right at the start, because even though it tells mafia who to shoot, it's worth taking away the ability for mafia to fakeclaim rose and escape the noose."

then I was pleasantly surprised by the 8 roses and my first thought was "okay well then rose claim doesn't defuse lynch so we don't gotta bother with that shit." but then when implosion had post 15 it made me realize that we went SO far in the rose direction that gun was an escape the noose claim now and I still wanted to stop that being a viable fakeclaim also.

(for what it's worth, I'll reiterate that I'm fine with the something smart plan - we can avoid forcing the gun to claim now, but if they claim and then get cc'd, we are absolutely lynching the first gun claim, none of this texas justice shit. If you are the real gun and you think you're likely to be run up today, please claim gun before the pressure comes.)

[hitogoroshi]

I think the part you need to talk to me about is what makes claiming gun safe for scum.
I feel like thats the opposite of safe.

if people go with the texas justice plan (bad) then it's "safe" in that a N1 Gun mafia is able to get off their bonus shot before dying. this is a pretty good deal for a mafioso suspicious enough we would have killed them d1 without the claim, not to mention it stops the d1 town gun from hitting someone else, doesn't work at all if the gun is non d1, and it means we have to get a crappy quantum lynch instead of a lynch knowing the flip.

if a counter-claim is enough for us to lynch the first gun claim, then it stops being "safe", and my objection is more that it's a giant waste of our time if you plan on running up mafia d1, since the claim will happen either way. I think our chances of hitting on this first one are good but maybe other people don't and whatever.

[hitogoroshi]

it's suicide to do it out of the fuckin' blue but it's just free value for scum who is going down anyway. the mafia will ALWAYS be able to choose the option from {derail wagon, force CC from real gun} or {claim rose for WIFOM} that they think benefits them more when brought to L-1 and forced to claim, right?

[hitogoroshi]

So this discussion has been like, really overcomplicated right? This is a smalltown setup, basically. The gun is not a named townie just a townie with a gun. Claiming gun should not be a deterrent from hammering, that verifies the player has a 2/3rds chance of being scum. 67% chance of an additional scum NK and a 33% chance of an additional vig is a penalty, not reward, for backing off of a wagon. So hito has that part correct. Asking for the gun to claim early so he can be hawt is not correct, it identifies who can be NKed.

I mean, you call it "overcomplicated" but you were advocating texas justice until I pointed out the downfalls of it, so it feels pretty necessary to me.

I liked Cephrir's 134-135 switch, it really does suggest he's reading/reacting in a threaded way (whereas scum prefer to read everything, then react).

I'm actually caught up now.

hito/pops/ceph/lld is all pretty solid town. I didn't like pops's entrance but their posting since then is both good and contains things that they'd have had to go out of their way to put in as scum in a way that I don't think would be likely.

VOTE: Something_Smart

wow damn I really hate this post. LLD has S_S as a scumread but not her top vote, and I have S_S as a townread. but implosion doesn't engage with either of us? It feels like both "try to sell a townread on a wagon they like, but isn't their top" and "try to work out disagreement with townread" are both things you would want to do and I really don't like not seeing either of them. feels very much like voting to be seen voting vs voting to accomplish anything.

also alisae is like locktown after our exchange and I am happy voting with eir.

VOTE: implosion

[hitogoroshi]

I dont by any means think implosion is a shining beacon of townie light but I could see myself doing the things you're criticizing him for, hi to, and for that reason I am not very convinced!

I mean, I guess where is the disconnect? What factors would have you wanting to cast a vote without trying to aggregate support or figure out the opposing case from a townread? because my main issue is I can't really see a motivation for implosions vote beyond image.

I dont have a confident or really any scumread right now but if I had to pick someone I'd pick xyzzy

Cephrir, I must regretfully inform that that we are playing a mafia game and you do, in fact, have to pick someone

[hitogoroshi]

Fakegod: Says a [1] by implosion in the vote count, ought to be [2].

Hito talk to me about Implo, I don't really get your reasoning.

Didn't you just get done saying that there are a bunch of reasons you might use your vote, rather than just wanting to lynch someone?

yeah! and some of those reasons I would expect implo to rally his townreads (maybe he wants a pressure reaction or something), and some others I would expect him to try to sell me why I'm wrong, some others he might say "hito talk to me about this S_S AIGHT read because he seems more of an OH DANG to me". But blank voting on someone with very little pressure feels bad for both pressure AND information, and when implosion has four "solid town" reads to work with, you'd think he would have been able to use them in conjunction with the vote some way or another, right?

LLD gimme your strongest town read plz

[hitogoroshi]

I'm in DC for a conference June 12-16.

I'll be still be posting, but probably less frequently, especially on the border days where I'm flying to/from. also a higher chance I do mobile posts which will be very terse because I hate mobile posting.

not a big fan of implosions answer being that he thought he'd be sortable with some focus but he didn't care about other voters, because it's kind of kicking the can down the road - if you want focus, why don't you care if other people vote for him or not? Isn't having your own reads - town reads especially - interact with the wagon exactly the kind of focus that's useful? it's not as much an answer as "it was a pressure vote but the kind where I don't care whether it creates pressure or not."

BUT I like him voting xyzzy here, casting a no-justification vote on lead wagon when he knows I'm looking at him does seem like someone trying to increase the temperature of the game without worrying about image which is good. well I don't like it not having an L-2 label but other than that. hard to figure out how to weigh this paragraph vs the above one!

pops seems to be on some sort of manic tear so idk I'll figure out how to read it later. I skimmed a bit at lunch and I was gonna go after him for posts implying I was certainly town but apparently he's just shitposting

I have seen enough games where the town eat each other alive and the scum just power lurk that I am slightly nervous about leaning too hard in to anything until the three no-shows get in the game. Not to the point I want to cast a random lurker vote yet because yzzy vs. implosion has some meat on the bones, but these deadlines are short as hell so I do want pine/haschel/cyan to feel some pressure to hit the ground running cause if there's a scumbolina in there I want to be able to catch them by contrast with the non-scumbolinas in there.

Alisae

: I think ceph 162 to 164 being 4 minutes apart makes a really good case for him being town. I don't think scum would make a show about disagreeing with me on implosion and then end up voting because of my power nagging four minutes later - I think scum who get the gumption to just directly call me wrong about mafia want to lean in to that and not immediately back track. also some shades of meta here in that this is part of a theory disagreement ceph and I have had across three games now about whether someone having no interaction with the reads of the people THEY town read is suspicious. [it caught wickedjester scum in 17 kilos, but wicked was doing a much stronger variant of it than implo is doing so I can't harass ceph about it too much.] so anyway I think ceph town is actually a pretty strong read.

xyzzy

: let's turn the question around to you instead. clearly you're alone on that LLD wagon and are gonna stay that way until YOU convince US. how do you feel about that? Are there players you think should be convinced, and are surprised are not? also, as someone who DOES have a lot of meta knowledge with LLD (I even played Liars Club with her!), what about my reasoning left you unconvinced?

I need to finish packing for trip but I ended up having a lot to say, whoops

[hitogoroshi]

haschel this thing you're doing better blow my god damn mind when you debrief us on what it accomplished

[hitogoroshi]

the "haven't had a vote count in a while update" - deadline is 3 and a half days and xyzzy is L-2 (I think)

I'm not quite as high on cyanjet-town as pops/ceph because we have no guarantee they're a newbie and if they're an alt that feels an awful lot like a carrot in a box sort of gambit. But yeah it's townie enough I'm not super enthused to push it D1 so I guess this is mostly a semantic, in-case-I-die kind of quibble.

don't have much time but I have some angry nagging time: we have non-voters Pine (never posted), Haschel (wanted to do this fucky ducky thing first), something_special (mafia playstyle is to sit and watch other people play mafia), effectively cyanjet (voting because of a professed ignorance that they can abstain, explicitly doesn't want the vote to go anywhere), and effectively xyzzy (unvoted LLD because of my appeal that their vote wasn't going to do anything without casing, but then didn't revote which is pretty sketchville). at least three of these players are town. in the worst case, all five of these players are town, at which point it is

literally impossible

for the town to get a wagon done without the help of the mafia. Can we uhh, maybe get that moving a little bit

my no-go list for today is alisae, ceph, lld, s_s. first two are basically locktown, lld high percentage also, s_s is a tier below but still way outta lynch range imo. cyanjet would maybe be here if I had a bulletproof guarantee they were a brand new player.

[hitogoroshi]

Hmm

I will agree with hito that sitting on my vote is a lot less effective in a game where four others are doing the same thing, and I will trust that you have a good reason to say that.

(I don't actually think I've ever played with Pine, but I definitely know his scum reputation.)

VOTE: Pine

thanks friend

I'm a little unhappy leaving implo so unsorted but I don't have any clever ideas on a post to do here where implos reaction would be highly significant and I'm in the lonely hearts club rn, so sure I'll add some gas to the tank

VOTE: Pine (L-3)

[hitogoroshi]

oh yeah I just said something_special as an incorrect top-dome of the username pops is totally correct that it would be abhorrent for me to use that as a nickname of any sort and I apologize for the accident

[hitogoroshi]

I don't understand Haschel being so worried about deadline that starting a Pine wagon with 3 days left is a foolish breach of responsibility while simultaneously being nonplussed enough that he's not voting anyone himself.

Also, Haschel, what exactly is the scum motivation of Alisae giving a "bad summary", from your POV?

[hitogoroshi]

I think I'm now in the camp that pops spewing is probably town. I ALSO think that something_smart being so heavily responsive is a town tell, and I'm super not interested in a wagon on him even though his D1 play is weak. I liked when he dug in his heels around it forever, but my argument that 5 nonvoters = can't wagon without mafia was the one that got him to vote. That's some good ass townie guilty conscience!

I do think that Pine's activity pattern is actively suspicious and it's not just a "pressure vote" - someone being super excited to play a game and then suddenly not being excited when they get their PM makes more sense when they get the PM they are less likely statistically to get. And Pops point that he's active in other postgames/signing up for games does convince me - I've had plenty of town/scum split games where I put attention in to the town game and neglect the scum game. Also like, if we start getting the brain worms that someone never posting means that they're town, we lose every game for free right?

I find Haschel's argument really unconvincing - in a word of several players refusing to have any presence, his argument is that because S_S is the most responsive player, him not doing good scumhunting is the most suspicious. It's bad that so many players aren't playing, but S_S at least giving words and answering questions is what you'd do if you didn't have good reads but wanted to try to show your thoughts, and it should be viewed as a mitigation, not a force multiplier. And I still find it really sketch that Haschel came out against the Pine pressure wagon so hard for deadline reasons but then defected from xyzzy to S_S.

Xyzzy is a player who is like always a D1 wagon. I haven't seen anything that I would strong indict them as scum for, but I don't like them unvoting without a revote in their last post. So he's on the scummy side of null but not a full blown scum read for me. But still a fine consolation prize, because I have a lot of town reads and at least his wagon gives us some decent information.

So for me, a Pine wagon or a Haschel flashwagon are the best results, xyzzy wagon is something I am less enthused on but something I'd do on deadline, I'm strongly against an S_S wagon. 36 hours to deadline - I'm out most of the day, but back this evening EST and then I'll have some time tomorrow late morning/early afternoon, so there should be two more activity periods from me.

[hitogoroshi]

It's not good but xyzzy is scummier and -remember- this setup is special in that a day 1 lynch allows us to rescue a townie, so sequencing lynches in a way that might generate information or something isn't as good as voting the person you think is gonna get FakeGod using the red fontcolor

I mean I agree with this, but you're making the salient points about Pine and I guess I don't see what from xyzzy compares. I earnestly do think Pine is more likely to red flip.

I missed the rule that players can request extensions, and tbh it makes me feel a little better about Haschel that he asked. Or he's scumbuddies with xyzzy, lmao. (or maybe Pine, but I think as Pine's scumbuddy you're hoping that no one has the gumption to get him sight unseen, and just joining him in running out the clock?)

My flight out is right around deadline time, but moving vote is something I can do even on mobile. I'll share some more words in the morning if there's anything new to react to (please friends??), and then when it's a few hours to deadline I'll swap xyzzy if they have more votes than Pine.

[hitogoroshi]

He did! but just to say "bite me".

unless you meant "i'm sure that scum there would have done an effortful post there to deflect suspicion, the way scum always do under pressure" in which case buddy I got this site called mafiascum dot net I'd like to show you

[hitogoroshi]

Yeah I expect effort from scum!Pine considering the circumstances.

I dunno, I just think that meta reversal is never really credible, because a.) scum posting is fundamentally just harder than town posting because you need to run counterfactuals in your head and b.) scum are the ones who know everything and only do work to not get caught, so scum posting is fundamentally less rewarding. Those two are invariant so I think that "player lurks as town but not scum" is just nonsense, even putting aside the clearly obvious fact that someone who knows they have that meta can exploit it for free wins.

And if you're not on board, vote xyzzy? Or at least pledge to swap past some threshold if other pushes don't work out. Think we're gonna need every active player cause there's uhh, not all that many of us lmao.

[hitogoroshi]

Isn't pines thing that he doesn't read old posts when repping

I'll hammer in an hour or so. On phone at airport lobby so gotta do it before takeoff.

Read tier list is something like

Town
Ceph, alisae
Pops, lld
S_s
Cyan, implo, xyzzy
Haschel
Pine

Lil rough and ready cause mobile = not reviewing anything all top dome. Pretty strong confidence on top 5.

Gimme your final thoughts before I turn off the lights

[hitogoroshi]

@ pine Not much to talk about, lots of non voters slash immobile voters so this is the wagon we could get. Wanted your head but you successfully lurked the entire day and town didn't have the fortitude so grats

@ss it is a little sketchy for me to not vote tho cause deadline will have passed when I land so I gotta trust y'all to finish it, but I am the only 100% townie and the next best 4 are on the wagon already

[hitogoroshi]

Pops I know you are all in on cyan town but if pine flips red I think that's where I look for buddy. You're pines #1 scum read by a mile but he has nothing to say about your cyan-town crusade?

Hammering in like 10

[hitogoroshi]

Plane delayed so guess we have a bit more time if someone else wants to leave final thoughts

[hitogoroshi]

Planes boarding so hustle up mister

[hitogoroshi]

And I'm off see y'all on the other side
VOTE: xyzzy

[hitogoroshi]

birthday today so don't really have time cause evening was filled with social things, but some stray thoughts:

don't get why Pine is so gung-ho on pops doing the lurker push making him mafia when I was repeating it verbatim and am a town read apparently?
haschel's reaction seems pretty forced given that xyzzy lynch was inevitable
LLD is weird because that reaction was so so town but I agree if you cover up the beginning of the thread with your thumb this kinda looks like LLD scum game. Well if she has more time for it today hopefully I'll get a better read

s_s

, why do you say "all of the scums kills" in post 400? are you treating it as certain that there are 1/2 mafia d1 guns?

also this post

Maybe the answer to those "Who knows" questions is "Pine." He professed to have some experience with you, hopefully he can weigh in.

dissolved like...half of my town read on s_s. it's a real bad post!

VOTE: Haschel

Pine gets a brief stay of execution but I would hop back in a hot minute, and I think one more bad post from either s_s or cyan could get me on them. still no interest in pops/ceph wagons. still can't really read implo but whatever he's using his vote and a bunch of y'all aren't so I am going to give him a temporary "you are doing the thing and that is good enough for me for now" pass

[hitogoroshi]

you did a bunch of "pops is either scum or he isn't" equivocations and then asked for meta clarifications from the dude voting him. clearly Pine isn't going to say "pops meta means that he's totally town for those reasons", so directly asking him to weigh on your nothing post looks an awful lot like you're hoping he throws out whatever comment about "pops scum could fake X" so you can say "okay Pine I will vote for pops but only if I can clearly point to you and say it's your fault when he green flips".

[hitogoroshi]

Okay, it’s pretty clear I’m not going anywhere with my pops vote. You guys are fucking blind.

seems kinda weird that you're writing off the pops town readers as all town when presumably one could be a nefarious scumbuddy you catch by judging the insincerity of the TR

Too much circumstantial and personality based evidence to ignore. Pine feels like he needs to be scum here, trying to organize a lynch of a player who could wake up from her stupor and swing the game at any time.

But what's your view of implosion here, LLD? Pine's switch to you seems largely to just be him following implosion after pops wagon didn't work out. I don't like how he abandoned pops wagon, but your argument seems contingent on the fact the swap is to you specifically, which seems a lot more rooted in implosion's play than Pine's.

I think in games full of passive players, the nka often doesn't need to get any more complicated than "kill the active players". Alisae was town read by like everybody, posting a lot and voting, I think that is probably the reason e died.

HITO, BLOOD PACT ENGAGED.

IT'S TIME.

Lemme keep a bead on Haschel for a bit and get back to you. I'm actually not that skeeved by Pine's jump on you, although I AM skeeved about the point I made above.

pops, whats up with the no vote chief

[hitogoroshi]

I typed this and got ninja'd but I'm postin anyway: NKA means night kill analysis. basically in ancient times players would pore over dead players final words to try to deduce why a certain player died and scumhunt based on that. then there was a counter revolution where people said that it could be hopelessly polluted by WIFOM and second-guessing and the correct answer is to ignore it completely. Now I think we have reached an enlightened age where you pay some attention to their biggest unique points and level of soft-claiming but don't let NKA override your fundamentals, just nudge them.

[hitogoroshi]

I feel like I don't know who the scum is so I'm not voting

oh no the brain worms are contagious

[hitogoroshi]

I mean yeah technically speaking my vote would be more dynamic voting someone who is here, but sometimes when people lurk for all their fuckin worth it's more important to just discretely document that you're not going to just randomly forget about them. I think Pine has a pretty good shot of flipping scum! But I also think that Haschel's back half of D1 seemed pretty insincere, his first real post of D2/vote will be very instructive, and the fact he's suddenly gone radio silent makes me feel even more uneasy (because trying to fake the "well, I had three scum suspects and the game started with two of them flipping town, so let me try to reset my thought process" dance is an annoying thing for scum to do, so a very plausible reason for lurking is that it's exhausting to run the counterfactual). So I would be pretty unhappy ending day without another post from Haschel, which means I would be silly to put Pine at L-1. But I'm also not going to

diffuse

Pine wagon, because I am pretty fond of it overall. Maybe Haschel does a good post and I feel better about being L-1 on Pine; maybe he does a bad post and I want it more then Pine, which will be the time to try to monger for support.

also like... I almost want S_S to be scum at this point for his own sake?? the dude has made 80 posts and voted a single time, on the Pine lurker wagon because we yelled at him to. If he's town that's like going to Disneyland and spending all week in the bathroom playing with the hand dryer, or something. like dude you have hand dryers in the bathroom at school, why did you want to go to Disneyland. what's this doin for you

[hitogoroshi]

oh yeah I really like LLD trying to dare implo on to Pine because it makes her thought process feel more coherent to me, but I don't agree with the idea of an implo/Pine team because surely if you throw out All Those Fucking Words trying to soft clear your buddy on NKA the whole ass point is to let yourself avoid talking about your buddy for a while, not immediately backtracking and second-guessing your own NKA. the risky part in that situation is doing the kill specifically so you yourself can bring up the specious NKA; once you've incurred the risk I would think you would want to do anything at all with the reward

[hitogoroshi]

I am sneaking on before work because lots of posts happened but I don't have that much time because it's actually going to be a really busy day at work and I can't come in late, so just dashing off quick highlights and will maybe go back on things that needed more detail this evening

Does that make her look townier to you?

yes

In addition to being an awful analogy, this is also misleading (it implies that I joined a mafia game only to not play mafia, which isn't at all what I'm doing), it doesn't really seem relevant (it's a very belated playstyle criticism that you've already acknowledged can be misguided town), and it is extremely convenient to a scum agenda (it looks like the perfect excuse to transition me from the town spot where you had me to somewhere low enough to mislynch).

wanting you to be scum is not the same as thinking you're scum

IF I SAID THERE WERE SECRET REASONS NOT TO DO THE HASCHEL THING WOULD YOU BELIEVE ME?

I DON'T EVEN FULLY BELIEVE ME, BUT I HAVE THIS FEELING IN MY BONESSSSSS

AND ALSO THERE'S SCUM BLOOD TO BE SPILLED. CUT THE TREES.

I just feel like Haschel's first effort post has a pretty significant chance to really tell on his slot and I guess I'm just not comfortable weighing his slot vs. Pine's without having seen that post. fair to call me a pansy for it tbh

THE RULES ARE SIMPLE FOLKS. IF SOMEONE ASKS FOR DEATH, NEVER DENY THEM.

yeahhh okay you were right to be adamant and I was wrong to be indecisive Pine's just scum. Can we chill a day or two for the haschel post anyway tho, I think he's a kind of sensible buddy insofar as Pine could have just lurked and hoped haschel did a really bad post that I hated otherwise. I am fine if this means I don't get any town credit for the Pine lynch, I am hito and I am gonna tell on my role PM regardless

[hitogoroshi]

It strikes me as an exceedingly easy tactic to use as scum, though. Like you're essentially getting someone else to vote who you want and you're getting them to specifically accept full responsibility for it.

oh ya to be clear LLD bullying people on to Pine wagon is 100% the only play she can do here regardless of alignment. I just meant that tonally the way she talked to implosion makes her holistic gamestate view feel more coherent

I guess I should just sit idly and wait for haschel to bless us with his wisdom hmm

this seems like an unnecessarily catty dig when you seem to exactly be mirroring my thought process that Pine is probably just scum but it's worth hearing what's happening with Haschel first.

:hitoshrug: (oh my hito is actually in this game uhhhhh)

just copy paste it from my title that's what it's there for

I almost never meta games I wasn't in cause it's a waste of time, but I think I might meta s_s to see if this explicit super-hard defense (like his last 12 posts or something?) is something he would do for a scumbuddy buddy. s_s do you keep an index of games anywhere or should I just go through your recent threads.

other than that, I think a pine red flip makes haschel look worse and implo look better. cyanjet is interesting because pine -> cyanjet looks pretty buddy but cyanjet -> pine really doesn't right? unless this was like a n1 premeditated thing to try to get cyan to the endzone?

[hitogoroshi]

how come everyone posts when I'm asleep and then have to go to work, but when it's the weekend I go a full twenty four hours without the content I crave

I'm doing top dome read summaries just so there's shit to talk about. rules are that I give reads on everyone but without ever looking back on the thread. so you can see how it's all indexed in my brain but I do not guarantee factual accuracy

Pine: probably scum! I was unsure at the pops -> LLD hop, because while I thought it was way too quick a capitulation on pops (and calling everyone off-wagon "idiots" without looking for scum among them is a tell of some repute), working with someone else to compromise on your #2 suspect does sort of jive with a townie just trying to have an impact. But his surrender is real scum crocodile tears, especially in a world where there's so much opportunity on the table FOR people to listen to him. it's a weird situation where I'm happy flippin Pine on his own merits but I just don't like how little happened today and it feels like there's still something to find. especially with...

Haschel: who knows?? his sudden insistence to question Pine felt like a put-on when I had warned like five times that I was gonna flip the wagon before takeoff instead of trusting other people to do it, and his questions were just "explain your case on pops" when xyzzy lynch was inevitable - it's not like someone is going to post something damning with a question like "why's pops scummy", especially because if he can't think of a good answer he'll just lurk for a few hours until thread locks. then the lurking has me somewaht suspicious on the ground that it's a lot easier to hard reset as town than scum, especially with the prod dodge post vs a total blackout. it's like a force multiplier without a sign at this point - I think I could swing pretty strongly one way or the other on haschel depending on what he posts. and even though Pine went pretty close to flat-out claiming scum I have this horrible picture in my imagination where Pine's town and Haschel is just stone cold running out the clock waiting for us to ml and know that he might out himself if he tries to fake genuine reads while he's waiting.

LLD: probably town! to be honest I was second-guessing myself a little when she was immediately 0 to 100 on Pine, it did seem a little bit like she was dodging a holistic view of the game state to just tunnel one after the other (I think ceph said this at some point) but her fate posting actually helped in that I saw hints that it was all more coherent behind the scenes. also like, this time she's tunneling someone who's probably scum, lmao. ftr LLD would be willing to bus teammate Pine here but I don't think she does unless I go on first - busing is rough in this setup

ceph: locktown everyone knows it, zzz

pops: probably town! I mean he has been all over the place but he clearly really gives a shit and I think it would just be exhausting to fake all that as scum. it's pretty much 100% a tonal townread which is always a little dangerous, but like, it still feels really wrong to go popsward here. well I guess if pine red flips it's more than tonal no way pops goes that fuckin hard for a buddy.

cyan: pops is gonna scum read me for this but I'm actually pretty unsure on cyan here! I mean there was presumably pregame chat so scum could align their gun/rose choices, so like...someone could have just ghostwritten those posts for him or whatever. to be honest cyan + pine is starting to loom kind of large in my brain because it plausibly explains why Pine has never commented on his posts AND why Pine would be so quick to roll over here - if they just coached in n1 PT "cyan, just vote me really early because I think I'm going down tomorrow", it looks like this doesn't it? he had one genuinely good post that I don't exactly remember, but I am kind of skeeved about giving a forever pass to a person who almost never posts because "wow no player could ever fake that wide eyed innocence!!"

implo: probably town. d1 was a wash but his d2 has been a lot more involved, especially his migration on the Pine nk thing.

s_s: unsure. He looked reasonably town during D1, and then there was that thing starting off D2 where it seemed like he was really trying to foist off vote responsibility, and now he's like outrageously defending Pine for all he's worth without any alternative? But it's also true that the foist responsibility thing is only a scumtell if Pine is town, and the defense is only really a scumtell if Pine is scum, so they can't BOTH count against him?? I don't know. for all of the posts out of him there's very few solid commitments, and now we have one in "Pine is town" and it's to a totally superlative degree relative to anything else he has posted and I don't know how to parse it. like I said I think I'm gonna have to do a meta dive to get a better sense of how often s_s has gone totally to bat for town reads and what alignments he was when he did it

okay that's everybody! someone else do some posts now!!

[hitogoroshi]

okay not like literatlly ghostwritten but as in, following a playbook from a buddy. I think it's totally reasonable although now that I am allowed to check the fp, I guess not with Pine/cyan specifically because it would have been two first-timers in the thread N0

[hitogoroshi]

Is it gambler's fallacy to say that if all of you are so flipping passive in the aggregate, we had to have gotten to that point by townPinewIRLprobs+2passiverscumslots+severalLessActiveThanAverageTownies?

I mean yeah it is. When tons of players aren't playing the mafia game it means that we can't read anything into the listless lack of pine counterwagons, not that we can positively read that he's town. Which was the whole point of wanting effort posting from people. But that was just a checking my blind spots thing and while I'm angry to not have the chance to do it I still think Pine lynch is a high percentage play.

[hitogoroshi]

grats haschel, hi kagami I am glad we're getting more of the 13 kilos crew in here

does anyone actually believe Pine could be a N3 gun given:

I feel like I've lost this round. I don't really see any path to getting my scumreads (Pops + LLD) lynched without first proving my intentions by flipping green. I'm not interested in pushing a save-myself-compromise because I have TRs on everyone else. I'll go back through some ISOs to see if I missed anything (having last minute doubts about Pops) and then take my ML like a man. It's likely necessary, though ofc not ideal.

Also, I'm specifically not asking to be saved. I am comfortable with dying here, but I do require that my views be taken seriously. LLD in particular is classically scum here.

Fine, what do you want me to say? I’ve made my cases, they were ignored. I PoE’d my Towncases, they were also ignored. What, do you want me to beg? Roll over and compromise-vote for someone I think is Town?

I’ll try to be less bitchy after I eat some dinner, but I feel this match is mostly being played with emotion instead of reason, and that’s not productive in a Mafia game.

Stalled game has stalled.

I think I might be the point where I wanna just muscle through it without even asking for a cc, it just seems so ridiculous that he'd post any of these posts with that kind of pocket ace and it seems a million times more likely he's just dropping a fakeclaim one day to deadline to get the cc out and maybe not die in the confusion

[hitogoroshi]

Hito is wrong that there's some world in which scum-pine lives, he obviously gets deadline lynched in the abscence of a CC.

I mean the only CC that can come is confirmation that he's scum, with no possibility of a definitive green, so what does this even mean. are you saying that there's no world where scum pine lives, which is why you want to defer his lynch today and create a world where scum pine would live?

[hitogoroshi]

the pro town reason to lynch is that Pine the N2 scum gun gets an extra shot when he's alive on N2 and doesn't when he's dead lmao

hey LLD before I turn off the lights on the thread lets hash it out a bit on cyan vs kagami as Pine partner cause I kind of suspect we will not be able to have this conversation tomorrow. (But tell me if you're ever going to bed in real life and I will hammer before so you can go to sleep knowing that nothing is fucking up the wagon. While I feel vindicated for slow-rolling in that I think this day end will be a million times more useful than doing it three days ago I still feel a little bad making you watch me not vote the scum for so long)

argument for Cyan: Pine had Cyan as a pure neutral read and said he didn't buy in to the D1 love on him, but ALSO wasn't willing to consider him for voting, even though the root of his faux-dejectedness was "I think only exactly these two people are mafia and every other lynch would be on my town reads". and it also does a great job why Pine-scum goes for the roll over gambit so soon and why cyan would be so disengaged after casting that vote - pine dying with cyans vote on him would have been a contingency explicitly planned for in N1 chat

argument for Kagami: like I said, I think that "being mafia" explains Haschel's constant posting problems. (I mean, obviously baby explains some of them also, but townies have an easier time dashing off quick content in that situation, right?). And I am getting sketch vibes off this post

So since you're here and still voting Pine, ceph, what are the circumstances under which scum-Pine derives any benefit from this?

Hito is wrong that there's some world in which scum-pine lives, he obviously gets deadline lynched in the abscence of a CC.

What are the odds that the town gun is N3+ (which is a very foolish choice)?

because "he obviously gets deadline lynched in the abscence of a CC" is sort of worrying language for me. the real construct that could generate a green flip "if we set up a town-wide agreement that a real town gun must claim here, not claiming in your first post after that agreement is an implicit rose claim", and in a later post Kagami confirmed they understood this. so this is totally wrong wording, when the thing that would clear Pine is something like "if we reach that agreement and then get one post from each townie soon enough", calling that thing a "CC" seems totally unconsidered and kind of suggests to me that Kagami implicitly knows there will be a CC

I have more to say about it but I'm previewing and seeing this whole thing so let me get this post out to lower your stress level a bit. I am Absolutely Not Falling For This, I just wanna dot my i's and cross my t's because hito has one of each of those letters in it

[hitogoroshi]

oh I should also be clear I haven't actually done that s_s meta yet so maaaaybe he could be a partner, but Kagami and Cyan both seem way more likely.

hey Kagami if you wanna influence me on this here's something to talk about

I think pine is fine outside of his townread on something_smart. I'd rather lynch elsewhere.

Unless he's replaced soon, cyan is the best lynch by far.

if s_s is so not-town that Pine's townread on him is a mark against Pine, why wouldn't s_s be better than the eugenic lynch on Cyan?

@LLD: my thing about implosion is that these posts

Actually maybe I'm overemphasizing how staunch Alisae was on Pine-town. I thought there were more instances of it but it's just that eir most recent posts were calling Pine town and older ones weren't. Still,

reduction of pressure on Pine and S_S.

Alisae was calling Pine town at the end of yesterday. It seems pretty bad-tunnelly to explicitly list Pine as a person who would be more likely to make the kill. I also didn't really think Alisae was obvtown and the way e was pushing me was almost less committal than I'd expect from alisae town from what I remember if e was scumreading me but that might just be me.

I should probably just ignore nka for now i guess. I swear alisae was like, hardcore on pine town and it's unfortunate that i'm wrong about that

seems not-Pine's-buddy to me, going through this kind of reversal without having any heat on you about it seems like it'd be a worst of both worlds where you stick your neck out for your scumbuddy in a telling way, but then not even use the specious argument you put your neck out for. though I guess maybe he was just pre-empting it because he was in an argument with you and felt like you'd call him on it? I guess you were actually in this argument so your take on it is probably more informative than mine.

[hitogoroshi]

Does this vote really come on his partner at that point when it's just Pine and me yelling a bit? Circumstantially I wonder about Cyan's skill level and ability to bus like this.

well, I think it was a pre-coached bus, but it's a good point that it's more likely you'd tell your scumbuddy "bus when it looks like I'm going down" and not "at the start of the day, and then leave forever"

okay, it feels fair to say that our ghosts are with each other on pressuring kagami tomorrow. and now I have heard your concerns about implo and you have heard mine on cyan. you got anything left you want us to know if you die or are we gucci for the hammer

[hitogoroshi]

m'kay goodnight fam. kagami can just respond to my thing tomorrow doesn't actually change anything vs having it now

VOTE: Pine

[hitogoroshi]

I feel not a smidgen of regret for killing Pine. Assuming that a player who tries to force out a CC on the last day (when verifying is probably impossible anyway unless Cyan comes back in time) is just lying is a much better play than believing a scenario where a player has a confirmable PR, believes they will die halfway through the day, but instead of claiming their confirmable PR at a time when it would be possible to verify, they instead state that they'll be the lynch today and then fuck around for three days as the virtually certain wagon, while keeping their PR claim silent and actively complaining about the game being stalled, which would be a very stupid thing to believe. Forcing out a town PR claim has a very small cost to us, but the odds of a townie mishandling their PR claim and play in general as utterly comprehensively as Pine did here are way smaller still, especially given the super HIGH chance that Pine scum just tries anything to see what sticks, so I have played the odds correctly and will do the same thing next time. I'm not gonna body Pine anymore in the thread since he's not here now, but I am extraordinarily livid and I gotta get that out.

wait, let me body Pine oooooone more time - you know you fucked up real bad when you die as a claimed confirmable PR and the scum shoot two people on your wagon because that's the towniest place to be, lmao

Okay! I guess let me hito mode and see if we can pull this shit off anyway.

Of the Pine defenders, I think only Kagami comes off as looking solid town for it, because his defense was limited to just wanting the CC. If you're mafia and know the CC actually isn't coming, this is a stupid thing to go for. I was excited for a second that Kagami had claimed scum but they actually just thought you picked role before alignment so it doesn't work, boo.

implosion's Pine defense was too milquetoast and later transitory to really count, but I think his appeal to Pine to just participate + especially that him dying doesn't condemn LLD is a decent towntell. Well, or he's scum with LLD.

Cyan obviously turbo-skeeves me out having done so little at this point, but does Cyan kill the two people who think he's hard town no matter how much he avoids the thread? I mean maybe because NKA is a huge thing he obsesses about? But on the other hand, we have to recoup an advantage somewhere and I feel like just trusting the two flipped townies on Cyan might be the way to go, unless he makes some really gross post. I don't know I'm conflicted here, but I DO feel like just voting Cyan is 100% too easy and not rigorous enough.

As my above rant indicates I don't think killing Pine implicates LLD at all here; of course having said that, it removes the main thing that made me feel good about her being town (i.e Pine redflipping). So the bad news is that she's a null, but the good news is that we synced up pretty much entirely on gamestate, which means she's going through exactly the same examination/reversal as I am, so reading her shit today ought to help a lot.

I put off s_s meta to see if I would die first because I am busy, but I did not die so I will do that now.

P. EDIT - but Cyan is not making it easy for me, surely the #1 thing newbies are fearful of is not wanting to throw the game right away? Not that I think implo/kagami is a particularly likely scum team, and not that I have any idea how likely implo/hito or kagami/hito looks to outsiders, but if it's one of those three scum teams Cyan's vote could just stone cold end the game here. You really comfortable doing that very top of lylo day homie?

[hitogoroshi]

okay here's me looking at s_s's games. I mostly focused on objective stuff with votes and stuff just to get a sense so I wouldn't have to deep dive. However, I am actually a ludicrous speed reader (one of my three genuine talents) so I was able to kind of look for super hard defense. In this case, because of the superlative degree he went for Pine here, I figured I'd look for a similar thing - clusters of posts that were all defending one person. I ended up only finding three, two of which seemed to have role stuff involved, and none from s_s scum which is what I was hoping to find. So that was mostly a swing and a miss, except that I disagree with the statement that s_s frequently defends players to the degree he did here. I did find some choice posts to highlight by skimming the actual threads so it was worth doing.

Legend:
O = on wagon
D = different wagon
N = not voting
L = lynched
X = No lynch occured

and then
T = wagon target flipped townie
S = wagon target flipped scum

mini normal 2073: ~ramblings~
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=79563

S_S, townie fruit vendor, killed N2
OT, DT
Votes: IIIII I
posts on end/death: 175
post/vote ratio: 29
game posts on end/death: 2459
Noticeable hard-defense: succint, but that looked like role shenanigans.

large normal 220: jazz mafia
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=79602

S_S, vanilla towne, replaced in N1 and lived to endgame
not present D1, NS, NS, DS (techcnially LUV conceded instead of being voted, but this is closest analogy because s_s wouldn't have lynched him)
Votes: I
posts on end/death: 98
post/vote ratio: 98 (didn't need my calculator for that one!)
game posts on end/death: 5227
Noticeable hard-defense: LUV on claim stuff, but I don't think anyone on play?

Undertale Mafia
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=79367

s_s was tEMMIE (town PR), lynched D2
DT, LT
Votes: III
posts on end/death: 299
post/vote ratio: 100
game posts on end/death: 4623
Noticeable hard-defense: Papyrus

Mini 2072: Timeshift Mafia
viewtopic.php?f=23&t=79507

s_s was mafia goon, won in endgame
NT, NT, NT, NT
Votes: none
post/vote ratio: undefined
posts on end/death: 56
game posts on end/death: 1137
Noticeable hard-defense: none
Found this weird:

I think I, for one, naked vote more as town than as scum.

because like, does s_s naked vote ever? but not really sure if this is an alignment hint just want to save it for later reflection

Micro 864: the newsroom
viewtopic.php?f=84&t=79327

Something_Smart, Mafia Publicist, lynched Day 3
NS, OT LS
Votes: IIIII I
posts on end/death: 197
post/vote ratio: 33
game posts on end/death: 1966
noticeable hard-defense: none
this scum game is much different than this current game, which is not the most helpful because his previous scumgame is similar to this one. But there is at least one variety of s_s I can read like a book which presumably should bump my prior a little

skipping AMGWPPTTIOTSDED cause it looks like some weird shit
also skipping marathons obv

mini normal 2067: Musicals
viewtopic.php?f=2&t=79212

Something_Smart - Town Macho Vigilante - Killed Night 1
DT
Votes: I(Selfvote in RVS)II
posts on end/death: 103
post/vote ratio: 52 without the selfvote, 34
game posts on end/death: 1335
noticeable hard-defense: none

Tone is not exactly right though, it's more like how meaningful and useful my content is. I have a hard time faking that as scum.

lets not get ahead of ourselves there buddy

Mini normal 2058 actually looks like it was a pretty fucko setup so I'm gonna ignore this one too

open 743: the crown of misery
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=78009

Something_Smart - undead warlock, won in endgame
OT, X, OT, OT
Votes: IIIIIII
posts on end/death: 142
post/vote ratio: 20
game posts on end/death: 2362
noticeable hard-defense: none

"Floating by" is pretty much my default mode though... it's not as if I ever say as town "this is where I'm going to do something town-motivated, and then I'll be townread for it."

you should start doing this it works super well and it fucking rules

skippping room odds because it's pretty unrelated to regular mafia
ditto for merchants daughter. fakegod I appreciate you making weird ass shit as a player but I ain't reading that shit as a dude doing meta

open 747: our love must remain hidden
viewtopic.php?f=51&t=78360

Something_Smart, town lover, won in endgame
DS
Votes: I
posts on end/death: 19
post/vote ratio: 19
game posts on end/death: 237
noticeable hard-defense: none
hey implo good job using seniority of the last vote as plurarily tiebreaker, that is the correct one

Joan, there's a middle ground between doing nothing but playing mafia all day and not even bothering to honor the commitment you signed up for. If you're really so busy you can't spare a few minutes a couple times a day, you shouldn't be playing. It's insulting to the rest of us who wanted a real game.

s_s where has this energy been w/r/t the lurker crew this game

excalibur
viewtopic.php?f=56&t=77881
I am a little dicey on counting this or not but it looks like for all of the gladidate weirdness it's still fundamentally people putting votes on other people, so w/e lets read it

Something_Smart, who was Knight Errant, and aligned with Town, was killed in Night 1.
NT (but maybe not voting makes more sense with the gladiate thing, idk I'm not reading THAT in depth)
Votes: none (but again it looks like voting was weird here)
posts on end/death: 61
post/vote ratio: undefined
game posts on end/death: 1431
noticeable hard-defense: none

Being wrong helps people get a BETTER read on me?

I've almost never seen that.

I've been mislynched many times for being wrong.

Once I stopped being more confident than I had any right to be, my rate of being mislynched plummeted.

okay I think we found the problem. being wrong can absolutely help people get a better read on you.
maybe in those earlier games you got mislynched for baseless and opaque wrongness or something?
but there are lots of ways to reveal your alignment that are independent of the correctness of your reads

anyway I was kind of hoping to find a single time s_s was town and was on a mafia wagon to see what him pushing looks like, but it hasn't happened and I've had my fill of this shit for today. maybe later
overall I think this biases me towards s_s is being town because his scum game seems to be a little more proactive and he bites back a fair bit more. but it does also seem pretty out of character for s_s town to lead day with a vote like he did here so idk man talk to me some about that

[hitogoroshi]

holy shit lmao I checked the timestamps and I read all of that shit in two hours ten minutes. I must be even angrier than I thought

[hitogoroshi]

I guess hito's wallpost two posts up is a sensible thing to do as scum here, particularly if he's scum with LLD, but idk I feel like scum him would probably end with the conclusion that S_S is scum because he's kind of calling everyone town right now? Not really sure what the deal with that is.

less "everyone is town" and more that I think we have decent acid tests for LLD/Cyan and S_S could swing a lot depending on meta. then I did the meta and feel...I guess not *great* on S_S, but better.

not a fan of the LLD post. not for my usual reason that it assumes I'm town - we have entered Real Hito Hours and LLD knows it - but the weird instant PoE based on the assumption that "I don't believe both players who voted me are mafia together, so lets ignore sorting either of them and find the mafia player who isn't voting for me". I've deleted a couple of lines because it's hard to articulate exactly WHY I don't like, but I think it's because here on the home stretch LLD's first post set up a rationale such that you can vote Kagami without ever having a reason to suspect/talk to Kagami?

w/e though let's talk. I think that "implo scum is lowered by his constant denial of the Pine wagon" is a weird credit to give to implo, since he basically reversed it by the end, s_s defended WAY harder, and Kagami denied it in a less scum-indicative way (saying that on reads it looked unlikely, but he wanted to stall to check for cc's - even though we were 1 day out with a v/la player so it was quite likely we would never get town to agree that real gun counterclaims, and then get everyone to post. And if Pine doesn't die there, Kagami is super in danger as an alternative.) I think implo's probably town but I'm not grokking why you clear him from your pov.

Oh, one other thing and this is for everyone: what did you think about pops putting Pine to L-1 without a claim? I have a reason for asking which I will reveal later

[hitogoroshi]

okay I am going to bed the instant I hit send on this post, so don't stay up and respond on my account. but - lemme put it this way. I've had my share of LLD lylos and I know that LLD-scum likes to immediately winnow the pool so they can go off on one person and start a charm offensive for everyone else. but it is also a fair point that from LLD-town's point of view, maybe you do think the voting and the town reads are so strong that you're instantly in the same boat LLD-scum would happen to be here. what I will say is that, even if from your POV Kagami is lockscum, I want to see you trying to sort s_s vs cyan as buddies. You can assume Kagami has already redflipped in your analysis if you want. because watching you do actual sorting is the best way for me to read you, and even if it seems like wasted effort to you because of the days events making it such that you always lynch Kagami over either of them, it gives me something to read where I suspect LLD-scum might write something different than LLD-town

[hitogoroshi]

kagami answer my question pls. oh but I'm going to change it slightly because I kinda phrased it wrong

Oh, one other thing and this is for everyone: what did you think about pops putting Pine to L-1 without any reason given and without calling the L-1? I have a reason for asking which I will reveal later

[hitogoroshi]

I hadn't really thought much of it at the time as I was about to be out for the night, but I can recognize the possible interpretation that it was some kind of stupid sort of CC.

I mean, that's part of it, although it's not as much just "it's a soft cc" as a "I agree it's not worth forcing out the cc" - I figured pops would do that as both gun and N2 rose and there was value in leaving it vague.

More of what I'm getting at is that apparently no townie ever kills Pine without waiting for cc there, period, but also when you saw pops put him on L-1 post claim without a word that didn't give you much to think about? Didn't pops essentially claim scum there from your POV?

[hitogoroshi]

Alright, I can see why this game feels so stall-y.

The lynch today is LLD, and that's not even a matter of opinion or something. There's necessarily scum in {LLD, s_s, and cyan}, so there's no reason s_s or cyan would move their vote unless they suddenly decide the other is scum.

S_s and cyan are probably both town, and I'm ok with losing if they are.

I don't mind hashing out the rest tomorrow if there's going to be a bit more energy following the scumflip. The only thing that isn't really supporting hito-scum here is that implosion makes a lot more sense as a NK than either pops or ceph.

I mean if you're town and LLD is scum you probably don't make it to tomorrow, so let's hash it out now. Even if from your point of view LLD is lock-scum, and from hers it's you, I still need to be able to read you two and watching y'all on the secondary hunt is the best way to do it. Like, what happened to turn Cyan from easily the best lynch to a strong enough townie that you're okay losing to? What was the reason why Pine's TR on S_S was scummy?

oh, speaking of Cyan - still curious why you cast the second vote so early. the certainty of "I am comfortable with the game ending for certain scumteam configurations" seems at odds with your stated uncertainty. What I missing there, Cyan?

from my end -

If LLD is mafia, I think the LLD/implo interactions are never buddy, just a little too much low grade snark in their back and forth (480, 485) for me to find it's credible. conversely, 552 is the kind of high grade feud that I do think LLD could fake on a partner, though I don't know if s_s would naked vote bus here. It seems out of character for him off my meta, but then naked voting seems out of his wheelhouse in general, and I guess you're less anxious about a naked vote if you're bussing and know it'll redflip? Cyan is kind of the same boat, where LLD -> Cyan could certaintly be buddies (she basically just mentions him when I ask her to), but the question is how likely Cyan buses scumpartner LLD here - I think a Cyan + anyone scumteam just wants Cyan to be the hammer keeper, right? Kagami bussing is uhh...well, if you think LLD is going down hard tomorrow it makes sense, but if you're LLD/Kagami you could have given LLD a lot better odds with different NKs, right? And I just don't see why Kagami buries LLD so instantly vs just waiting a little bit to see how things pan out.

If Kagami is mafia, I think Cyan is a weird buddy because actually waiting out that Pine claim makes Cyan decently like to be D2s lynch? I mean Pops/Ceph never vote him but you can still probably cobble together a majority, and it's hard to imagine who else would get got. s_s <-> Haschel is very much not-buddy so I don't think s_s would be a partner,

especially

436. Actually from my meta-fever-dream on s_s I think I'm gonna say lock not-buddies on this one, I can't imagine any universe where s_s bodies his friend like this and I'll take the L without remorse if he did. Kagami/LLD is covered above, so it's...implo? But if it's Kagami/implo, implo is just gonna show up and take us out of our misery. so uhh, I'm not really sure it can be Kagami! I guess if he was dayvigged right now, the Cyan logic is the most specious in that maybe Kagami's plan was actually just to let deadline roll up and then go on Pine anyway, not actually let the cc come to completion. I mean with Cyan's V/LA that was pretty much the ordained end result anyway, and now that I'm musing out loud about it it is weird that Kagami thinks we could have gotten an extension (I don't think we could have after yesterday's shutdown) and didn't ask for it

[hitogoroshi]

To be honest, s_s not wanting to explain his "why" on LLD gives me the willies a bit, but his partner is never Kagami so idk what's left. I do generally agree with LLD that it would be weird for your and your scum partner to vote instantly and together in lylo, and if it's implo/s_s we're in the same boat of "implosion will mercy kill this cursed bloodline whenever he gets around to checking thread again". so it's this weirdo thing where the only really sensible partner is him doing a bus. Maybe I gotta get back on the meta train at least long enough to see what it looks like when he's actually lynching scum, as both scum and town, but who knows how much work I'm signing up to do to see that

[hitogoroshi]

I guess I should use more gradated language because when I say "implo/LLD is never buddy" I mean something like "it seems decently unlikely they would do this kind of low-grade sniping at each other when they were on a scumteam", whereas when I say "s_s/Kagami" is never buddy I mean it like "I cannot conceive of a world where s_s brings up those greenflips as an attack on his scumbuddy that he's not even following up on". LLD/implo would not Rock My God Damn World or anything but s_s/Kagami really would.

[hitogoroshi]

wait a minute Kagami if you thought players picked gun/rose before alignment why in the world would you think that anyone would ever pick rose instead of gun.

[hitogoroshi]

My opinions on cyan and s_s changed with the introduction of new evidence. The suggestion that cyan was a good lynch was under the belief that mafia were reasonably likely not to be Guns.

What new evidence on s_s? And how does the gun/rose prior changing make Cyan more likely town? I mean I'm seeing the tip of the Stuffberg I wanna see so gimme more please friend. Think of how much better you'll look in relation to LLD!

So far you've done little to address the night kills. Ceph can vaguely be written off as a universal town-read, but why does pops die there?

I mean, I think the nightkills make a lot of sense as Kagami-scum trying to pull the exact shit you're pulling. Because if you're Kagami-scum trying to quickly end the day on the argument "the people who voted for Pine without waiting for cc are guaranteed scum", you probably don't want to try to use that argument to sway the two

other

town voters who voted for Pine without waiting for a cc.

I guess LLD-scum always kills pops over hito because LLD knows I will be more sympathetic than pops will, having mind-melded at the end of the day there. s_s scum probably does too because Pops as a lot more hot and bothered on s_S than I was. Cyan is weird because obviously prima facie Cyan doesn't kill their two most vocal defenders and is much happier killing me, the Cyan skeptic, but 479 really gives the impression that Cyan is a very night-focused player (and I mean, they clearly cares dick bupkis about dayplay so it kind of wins by default), so they're also a player I 100% could believe is purposefully killing their top supporters.

Because most players end up being town and would pick their pro-town choice, I suppose? I don't think 8 townies picking rose is a likely outcome a priori either, but why would you care about an prior when you start with the outcome?

I'm trying to get in your headspace about this post:

I think it's bizarre that LLD didn't choose N1 Gun.

You apparently made this post believing that the choices were made pre-alignment. It seems weird to single out LLD specifically for playstyle/temperament then, when I would think this is kind of a mark against every player who doesn't expect to be vigged - so me, LLD, probably implo. And actually, how did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?

[hitogoroshi]

I am about to go to bed, but: while s_s/cyan is reasonably unlikely, "scum would never vote together" is not a strict guarantee because s_s was first and maybe Cyan is just running it down, so I don't think you can hard clear on that alone. Kagami has weird associations with other potential scumbuddies but Kagami/Cyan I don't think is impossible tier like Kagami/s_s is - the main strike against it is "Kagami doesn't defuse Pine when it would just kill Cyan instead", and it's quite possible that Kagami was instead thinking "since Cyan was V/LA, I know they're posting last, and Haschel left instructions in the PT N1 to counterclaim town gun after no one else does".

More importantly, pretend that the moderator had PM'd you a red check on LLD. Wouldn't that make you MORE encouraged to sniff out peoples reactions before ending day when you had the knowledge that red flip is certain and you know that exactly one other player in the game has that knowledge, and they're mafia? I mean think about what a buddy has to do here. One option is to explicate exactly why they think LLD scum - and currently s_s/Cyan are both drafting on Pine's death throes without adding anything of their own - and then fake hunt for buddies, which has the chance of revealing "correct wagon for a fake reason, because this is a bus and I didn't think I was gonna have to sell it." (i.e, someone implicates an LLD based on stupid logic that never should have led them to LLD-scum.) OR, the other scum has to go through the effort of analyzing things from both perspectives - and having to do a bunch of work that will evaporate in the wind of the flip is one of the most reliable razors that divides townies and scummies. I think Kagami posting has already revealed stuff, and their answers will reveal more; and I think that content out of s_s and Cyan being pre-flip is ridiculously more useful than post-flip. "Being certain about a flip before it happens" is not at all in the wheelhouse of either s_s OR Cyan, right? So if one of them was faking it and one had a legit reason, don't you think you'd be able to tell which was which by making them speculate on the gamestate while they theoretically SHOULDN'T "know"?

I guess what I'm saying is that even if you're not at all convinced on my potential alternative scumteams and think LLD is lock scum, there's a lot of value in pretending it's an option and making people post in that world, so you should just say you think there's a chance they're possible whether you do or not :')

[hitogoroshi]

Really don't think this is worth the +apathy of stalling the game for days with a wagon sitting at L-1 if she's scum.

I mean, it's only apathy if you're being apathetic about it! I have decided to put on my carry pants because I'd be really annoying losing like this and I am certainty not apathetic. Kagami's posting. You could post. LLD is...well kind of posting but not the kind of posting I actually want.

You could say "apathy" in the sense that, it feels subjectively like we'll spend a long time twiddling our thumbs if we're waiting for s_s and Cyan to justify their votes on LLD. And I mean, yeah, I also have that impression. But seeing as they are the first two votes on the LLD wagon, this strikes me as a !!!bad reason!!!! to push forward the LLD wagon without knowing anything about their POV. I mean, if s_s/Cyan is the team, and s_s overnight says "okay, we're going after LLD", and then Cyan does it by immediately following S_S instead of waiting for hammer or anything, so they're now the first two scum on the wagon - this is exactly what it looks like, right? Just heads down, hiding from thread, hoping to god that no one cares enough to ask them anything about the votes they cast at the very start of fucking LYLO? And if one of them is bussing, and the other isn't - how on earth do you expect to catch them

tomorrow

, when the one who was busing doesn't have any need to pretend that they don't know for sure it's flipping red, and can dismissive casing with "well, I was clearly right"?

Like... This is so clearly the scum win stroke. I don't know what to do because one of S_S and Cyan is town and we need to convince them to flip to fix this.

I mean, I am automatically the most sympathetic person to arguments where you're town, since I'm one of the two not voting you and we mind-melded on Pine. But like I said, this is the kind of posting I value very lowly because I absolutely know LLD-scum can make it too. Is there truly

zero

chance of s_s and Cyan being scum together? And if so,

which one

is the buddy, and which one isn't? I know that LLD-scum is waiting to hyper-jump on whatever person makes a post they can misinterpret first, and would be loath to close off an option on one or the other before she has to. LLD-town would consider D1/D2 when evaluating, and could start doing so now. That's why I want you to do the kind of work that's harder for LLD-scum to do than LLD-town.

s_s and cyan are town, there is no point throwing shade in that direction.

LLD doesn't request to be bussed by either of them.

I feel like you have some mental image of LLD as a bloodthirsty, ego-maniacal demon who always takes vigs and never lets herself be bussed by perceived lessers and etc. But I mean, LLD is first and foremost someone who just doesn't like losing mafia games. If LLD thinks she's going down, and doesn't think we'd get her partner tomorrow, sure she requests to be bussed.

I also find it unnerving you answered some of my questions but kind of elided over the ones that I think will have the most telling answers, so I will repost them in a big obvious way:

What new evidence on s_s? And how does the gun/rose prior changing make Cyan more likely town?

I think it's bizarre that LLD didn't choose N1 Gun.

You apparently made this post believing that the choices were made pre-alignment. It seems weird to single out LLD specifically for playstyle/temperament then, when I would think this is kind of a mark against every player who doesn't expect to be vigged - so me, LLD, probably implo. And actually, how did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?

[hitogoroshi]

Zero chance implies I'm infallible Hito, and I'm not, but I admit that I don't exactly understand the purpose of your question. You want me to argue for something I don't remotely believe to be true, even though there's possibility? Sure.

eh, more just like I wanted to see your thought process a little more on it since I think that Cyan being the second vote = it's not worth instant dismissal. If you're still not confident for other reasons, great that's all I need to know. Mostly just residual paranoia when I see you and Kagami both gearing up for 1v1 and s_s and Cyan not posting. thank you for that post.

Right now you need to convince hito and implosion to wagon cyan or Kagami with you. I'll never be moving my vote if that doesn't happen.

well yeah dude. and obviously I will hammer LLD at deadline if votes are frozen like this forever. It's 4:2 so every townie needs to be on the wagon unless there's a bus. This is super duper not what I am looking for. Between the players in this game, who do you think are the mafia and why? Are there pairings you find impossible? I know you know how to post s_s! You did it a lot the first two days!

Firstly, LLD is obviously scum. By virtue of the initial wagon, there is necessarily scum in {S_S, cyan, LLD}. I continue to be of the mind that the Pine lynch just doesn't happen without substantial scum support, hence why I didn't really have any fear of S_S + cyan and added my vote.

What is the word "hence" supposed to mean here given that Cyan was also on the Pine wagon

Now he's dragging the day out while trying to sow doubt on the towniness of those voting LLD. While protecting her, he's simultaneously trying to tie my alignment to hers, which makes absolutely no sense if he's town. "How did you KNOW that LLD wasn't N1 Gun, anyway?" is a particularly transparent instance of this.

what the fuck do you mean "tying your alignment to hers". The point I am making is that the mafia know that LLD is a night 1 rose if they shoot her and the kill doesn't work. However, rather than immediately call you scum for it, I decided to be a big brain boy and ask you why you thought that first, in case there was something I was missing. Instead it signified the end of you having good faith discussions with me and appealing directly to implo to just hammer LLD. This to me makes it considerably more suspicious, but hey, maybe I'm still missing something. So, one more time: you replacing it to a mafia slot that shot and failed to kill LLD N1 is one reason that you'd know LLD isn't a N1 gun. Is there another explanation?

[hitogoroshi]

I don't have much time for this tonight and I won't tomorrow but let me get out some stuff because from my POV the game gets basically solved if I solve blake so I wanna see blake's thoughts on my thoughts.

mechanics chat wise, I agree with LLD in that my rationale was basically "I need rose because I don't trust the average scummer nor FakeGod's gaggle of friends to not take gun" (oh and speaking of fakegod's friends and weird picks, shout out to poor Ceph repping in to that night 5 rose), and it didn't really get more complicated than that for me. As mafia I would have taken gun though because I do not fear vig at all. So I find the reverse prior argument unconvincing, but after Kagami sounded it out it at least seems more sincere. I think you're slightly overestimating gun and underestimating rose only because there's a massive utility step-down night-to-night and so the roses match on the gun nights more often than random, but I agree with the general thesis that I probably would have 50/50'd gun vs. rose if the playerlist at the start looked like it did end of D1.

I also put 0% faith in the argument that scum ever slow-roll hammer. It's not THAT hard to do a halfway deniable hammer that isn't instant scum claim if you fail, and if scum hit a rose with a N1/N2 gun, they can just shoot that player to tonight for the free win. Unless it was a N1 bounce killed N2, but I think you don't kill the N1 bounce N2 for exactly that reason.

So I am fine saying that if implosion is scum, the only possible partner is LLD. And uhh, tbh that team looks a lot more possible after 806. I still feel weird at the idea that their catty digs would be scum/scum, but I REALLY dislike the flow of "I'm totally gonna hammer LLD with Kagami saying it's hito tomorrow, hito convince me off it" -> absconding for a while -> "Hey, but it could be Kagami! OR LLD! OR LLD, and then after an LLD redflip we still keep Kagami on the table (???)". Like yes, bussing is possible. Cyans vote on LLD could maaaybe be a bus because it's a weaksauce case they never came back to push. Kagami's push is essentially never a bus, because what is the gee-darn point. Why on earth would Kagami start the day with a line of logic that both buses their partner, AND antagonizes a random townie in the process? At the very least Kagami could have said "it impugns both LLD and hito, but hito hammered so he's worse" and started by trying to rally on me.

Kagami is in a place where there's a lot of individual things that seem strange - assigning ~0 probability to the chance that LLD town gun hit a N1 rose, weird fixation that Pine wagon is autoscum when we just had two green flips out of Pine wagoners + the NKA angle that these are the kills you make you push that story. And 802 is silly for the same reason because Kagami-scum HAS to antagonize hito-town here when he's making that argument; if he wanted to antagonize LLD and not hito he would need to go after LLD for something else. The problem is like...unless blake switching to threatening Kagami is a 300IQ bait to make me discount the team, Kagami is officially Out Of Partners. It ain't LLD, it ain't implo, and I'm still gonna say that 436 is never buddies; that sort of objective tell seems like the kind of thing s_s puts a huge amount of stock in and I don't see s_s unearthing it on a partner to not even do anything with.

s_s...I don't know, don't think it's a bus on LLD, not with Kagami, not with implo, but could very much be with blake. Just snuck in a townread on Cyan and otherwise left him alone. And I don't think the voting together is as big of a clear as others, because it makes plenty of scum sense for s_s to go first with an unjustified blank vote and then say "I'll vote Kagami instead if you make that the wagon that goes off instead! And if it helps, I will express zero reason to have a preference between the two", and then Cyanjet's vote would have just been doing the PT plan in their first post because Cyan was just sort of doing things. The more compelling argument on cyan town is how much you want to go down the WIFOM rabbit hole of zero level "Cyan never kills their two staunchest supporters in the same night" vs first level "Cyanjet obsesses about night kills and literally just learned that we're doing some amount of NKA the day before" vs second level...etc. Oh, another thing is that reading this:

Ank! \o/

Hopefully you can help me quell what doubts I have about your slot. I'm giving you permission to Amished here; read your predecessor's last post and tell me that isn't cringe-worthy.

makes it retroactively unnerving that S_S was cool just stone chilling on the wagon with Cyan

so I think from my point of Kagami is more or less cleared barring residual paranoia on blake gambiting here. and I'm weighing between LLD/implo and s_s/blake, with maybe an outside chance of lld/blake. With LLD/implo feeling more likely after implos last post, but still feeling quite uneasy about how little people have considered s_s/blake. It feels bad because LLD is my friend in real life and Kagami has been yelling at me all day but I dunno blake was the last sensible partner and I just don't see why they'd take such a risk in such a winnable situation.

[hitogoroshi]

Blake, even if you don't want to read the previous parts of the game much, can you ISO s_s and/or Haschel and look between them? I have that one post that I'm using as my keystone for "s_s and Kagami are not buddies" but the whole thing is pretty unconvincing of buddy action I think - s_s I think was clearly hopeful of the chance to start casing on Haschel and Haschel went reasonably hard on s_s. I I think it's kind of important to look the associatives here because yeah Kagami has some sketch stuff in isolation but Kagami just makes sense as no ones partner. And if Kagami is my partner I just pretend that 765 is the last word instead of pushing back with 773, right? In a world where implo is town and not just trying to get me to disarm the wagon on his scumbuddy, he actually means what he says in 765, so even if we pretend I would avoid hammering in Kagami/hito just to play some super long odds by making implo hammer, why wouldn't I just hang back and uhh, let implo hammer?

I don't know. If LLD is scum she is playing a good game but implo looks so buddy it makes me really think LLD is scum. though s_s, I would still really like to know what went through your head for this post:

Ank! \o/

Hopefully you can help me quell what doubts I have about your slot. I'm giving you permission to Amished here; read your predecessor's last post and tell me that isn't cringe-worthy.

because nothing else you've done today seems congruent with these doubts tbh!

[hitogoroshi]

because nothing else you've done today seems congruent with these doubts tbh!

Really?

Where did I say something that doesn't make sense with that?

eh well I was gonna say that this confidence on LLD is outside of your norm and if you had misgivings on Cyan, then I would think that seeing Cyan follow you on the wagon and/or Kagami taking the wagon with Cyan on it to L-1 would make you at least start sounding out how good you feel on LLD and why. But tbh don't bother anymore. I'll be slightly bitter if it really is you and Blake and no one believed me, but it's a fair point from Kagami that Blake probably would have just followed you and this close to deadline it's irrelevant unless I have a slam-dunk thing I found in your ISOs.

this is the thing that sucks to do emotionally but I had to just sit down and decide once and for all if I believe LLD and I don't. Mostly for the same holistic reasons - Implo makes ten kinds of sense as the buddy who was ready to bus but decided to see if kindly hito would defuse his partners wagon, and now has to commit to this bizarrely insincere "either one's good" on Kagami/LLD. Conversely, Kagami/s_s I still have all the trouble with from back when it was Haschel/s_s, and also Kagami's general agreeableness tracks very strongly with perceived read. I have no clue if Kagami is good enough at mafia to fake this, but I at least find that mafia tend to get kind of stuck in whether they're in cooperate mode vs. point-scoring mode, vs. Kagami going "probably hito, but kills look more implo so benefit of the doubt" vs "I think it's for sure hito with the questions he's asking" vs. "I instantly don't think it's hito because he could have followed up with Blake and didn't" and their posting style changing pretty dramatically phasing between them.

also, it's just...I dunno, hard to articulate the problem I have with LLD's recent posts. The ones from ISO 91 and on just feel qualitatively different and less sincere. I've been at this post for a while now trying to put it in words, but I can't and I really do have to go to sleep. I guess I can say it feels very similar to the Pine lynch energy, which obviously I didn't have a problem with then when I was seeing the same contradiction, but feels a lot more put on when I don't? That's the best I can do.

LLD, if you are town I am genuinely sorry and I'll take the blame for the L. But I can't make myself believe in Kagami/s_s at all here. (Conversely, if you are scum, know that I don't share Kagami's feelings about this being over the line or anything and we are still pals. It's a little rough on me but I'm just the kind of guy that works on and you've gotta do what you gotta do.)

VOTE: Lady Lambdadelta

Blake, this is where it's gotta be now.

(Also, damn, I forgot how much I hate LYLOs)

[hitogoroshi]

Lol.

You know, I'd really like to play this setup again with people who actually know what they're doing starting in the slots.

I'm leaning hito scum after reading overnight. Where are you at, Ank?

Man it's 100% implo, that was basically the whole thing that got me to settle on LLD once and for all. I mean remember this??

I don't think any 2/3 of Kagami/LLD/hito is especially unlikely or impossible. I don't see Kagami or LLD's mutual interactions as necessarily precluding a bus (in particular I feel like MS is in a fairly bus-heavy meta right now though I might be biased because the last scumgame i played was mlp). If it's Kagami + hito, I can very much see hito playing the role of not wanting to hammer in this setup, especially after I said I would, so as to still be in it after a possible missed kill. However, I really think both scum are in that three.

I don't think he could be any more transparent about wanting to snap on anyone besides LLD who hits L-1 while still having the option to bus her if it looks inevitable. Kagami/hito and LLD/Kagami were both nonsense teams but implo reaaaallllyyy just wanted to stall and say "if it must be LLD I want to be on it, but I sure hope it can be anyone else".

the other factors to consider:

1. hito-scum can at least give it a college try to utilize Blake's very wrong read and win the game off of it, instead of making moves to cut off the Kagami wagon and then voting LLD to force Blake to vote correctly. Especially since, if hito is scum, implo is actually being sincere about those nonsense scumteams so his vote is in play.
2. LLD constantly was talking TO me but ABOUT implo. I was the vote that she was pretty transparently trying to fish for whereas she wanted as little to do with implo as possible
3. I don't think hito-scum ever kills Kagami after

It looks like Hito is town given 808, since LLD-Hito had pretty much won the game after ank's entrance, and 803 completely throws that out the window.

we won the game back there because implo got greedy instead of just taking the bus straight, let's not grab defeat from the jaws of victory!

VOTE: implosion

[hitogoroshi]

Are you going to sit there with a straight face and tell me that LLD thought there was a world where someone other than her was lynched that day?

Sure she does. She needs me and one of you/Cyan and she wins the game with implo using the hammer he's puttering around for. So she's working me the whole time and trying to take whichever one of you two she can get. I wrote 773 to try to make her commit on one specific buddy, and she sort of half-commits to Cyan scum and you town in 774. Then Blake comes in scrumreading Kagami - at that point, LLD just needs to switch to TRing Blake and SRing you, and she literally wins the game when I vote Kagami. I had quite a few bits of Kagami's posting I found suspicious - why doesn't she think she can win that?

What doesn't make sense about it? They killed their failed N1 hit and a universal townread on N2, and then LLD spent the day trying to confuse people while hito spun his wheels and eventually decided it was time to bus, and then hito shot obvtown Kagami whom he judged was most likely to go their own way instead of listening to him in 4p MYLO.

But Kagami is the

least

likely person to change their mind, not the most, right? Kagami has already priced in the idea of an LLD/implo scumteam, and so seeing LLD flip red doesn't adjust their reads at all. Conversely, Blake believed in Kagami + ???, and so being disproven means that Blake has to totally reindex, with no clear indicator on who she'd think the most likely buddy is.

- Obviously, LLD was bussed at some point. It makes a whole lot more sense for it to be on D3, after she was already almost confirmed scum from three townies' POVs, than on D2, when an LLD lynch would have shut down the Pine wagon for good.

Don't think this works out with the chronology of what actually happened. If you say "when LLD would have shut down the Pine wagon for good" to imply that the strength of her attack on Pine means that LLD-scum would imply Pine-town, LLD went off on Pine in post 500, and in his very next post (531) implosion switched to a town read on LLD and voted me instead. So it's not like "implosion was voting LLD back when it was costly to do" - as soon as a cost came up, he bolted.

- The way hito played around Pine obviously has a lot of scum equity, and I can imagine LLD telling him that he can hammer and she'll take the fall for the wagon. Implosion, if scum, would have probably been angling for towncred off of defending him. Had he gone that route, he could also have been shielded from TMI accusations by the fact that I was defending Pine even more. But 580 makes absolutely no sense from the "defend the mislynch for towncred" angle, and it also makes no sense if you assume that implosion saw the wagon failing and wanted to make sure it went through, because he never even voted Pine.

Isn't that exactly what scum want, though? Make sure it goes through, but without your fingerprints on it? implo put himself in a spot to hammer Pine wagon if he needed to and just didn't need to. If you hard-defend every ML you're not on, you end up pretty easy to catch as scum.

- The scumteam was LLD/?. They decided they'd take a N1 gun and a N2 gun. Which player takes which is irrelevant, except that the N2 gun needs to, you know, survive to N2. Now I don't know how strong implosion's scumgame is overall, but I know that in his most recent scumgame he was lynched D2, so I would expect their selections to be reversed. And he was quick to bus in that game, which would not square with him holding out so long on D3 as LLD's partner, even though it was clear LLD knew she was going down.

I mean, I think if you're an implosion/LLD scumteam and you know there's going to be 5 (!!!) newbies in the game, I think you just pick for tactical advantage and price the chances of being a D1/D2 lynch as very low. Probably LLD needed the N1 gun because she's a likely person to take it as town and would have truthfully claimed her gun were the gun/rose distribution not so skewed.

[hitogoroshi]

Because it requires selling a very specific scumteam to multiple townies and very possibly making her partner obvious in the process of it fails. That definitely seems like it will work less than 50% of the time.

Alternatively, she can set up for the 1v1 between you and implosion by interacting with the two of you in a way that makes her partner look better, which is at least marginally more than 50% if you think she's any good at doing that.

Do you really think that, in that situation, the first option is the more sensible one?

I mean, it's not like she has to pick between trying to win or being bused? I'm sure she figured she had paths to victory while she was bused, and she simultaneously worked towards a path to victory where she won today. I think this idea that she decided 100% that she was gonna die and so any evidence that looked like she was trying to win is automatically backwards WIFOM is pretty dismissive to a player of her caliber, tbh! Actually hearing you casually say that obviously LLD was getting lynched is kind of annoying because I put in a lot of work figuring out the pairing and if you are assigning any possibility to me being scum you think there's a chance that implo earnestly believed his nonsense LLD/kagami and hito/kagami teams. In which case...if hito votes Kagami, Blake does as well, and it's all up to implo who has pivoted to not expressing any sort of value judgement on LLD/Kagami for days and days. Where is your confidence that a Kagami lynch should have been perceived as impossible coming from? because it kind of feels like it's cheapening All That God Damn Reading I ended up doing. like buddy do you know what two hours of your meta does to a mans soul

also if hito and LLD are sitting around N2 worried that the Pine wagoners will be considered lock-scum, surely we just...don't kill the other Pine wagoners right?

I don't know Kagami. They'd already changed their mind at least once (they were pretty deadset on you being scum at the start of the day), so I'm really not sure. I don't really think you would never kill Kagami here.

Right, but Kagami changed in reaction to new information that contradicted their priors ("hito responded to Blake's scum read on Kagami by clearing Kagami"); whereas the LLD flip and any green flip on not-implosion would not constitute new information to Kagami, who had that theory already. You're right that I'm not so sure I'd "never" kill Kagami - I think hito-scum probably kills you here actually, figuring that Kagami can guilt Blake more easily, but I haven't really thought about all the plays that'd be available to hito-scum there. The point is that if I did kill Kagami, it wouldn't be because of the fear that they'd change their mind, because I know exactly WHY Kagami changed their mind and it wouldn't be a factor in D4.

[hitogoroshi]

Oh dear.

If you think meta reading Something_Smart is painful, you'd probably be absolutely miserable trying to read mine.

let me tell you: even though your Kagami read was obviously hella wrong, the fact you and Kagami was the only sensible scum pairing for either of you and your entrance basically nuked it from orbit was actually what broke the game open. tbh an incredible proof of my thesis that being engaged and making hard commitments is more important than being right

[hitogoroshi]

VOTE: hito
Ank, when do you think bussing was more likely? Regardless of which it is, they bussed at some point.

I think the relevant thing to look at is scale more than time, though, right? Obviously I am biased but I think the much more important comparison is "Which vote on LLD was more likely cast by a partner: the one on D2 that was abandoned as soon as one other player voted for LLD, or the one on D3 that put her to L-1 and forced a player who hard wanted a different lynch to vote for her anyway".

Hito, why did you make this post? This feels like a weird thing to say in this situation.

Partly just as a pick-me-up for you because it was kind of a self-deprecating comment and I wanted to point out that, even though you were wrong, just being willing to commit had a huge amount of positive utility in helping me crack the game state and securing that LLD lynch. (Though I guess 'broke the game open' is an exaggeration; it's what soft-cleared Kagami to me by invalidating you/Kagami as a team, but it didn't convince me off you and s_s as a potential scumteam. It was mostly implo's posting that did that with a bit of LLDs at the end when she got desperate). There's also me being a bit of a stickler about raising the point to S_S specifically, because I had this earlier comment about his stuff when doing the meta dive:

Being wrong helps people get a BETTER read on me?

I've almost never seen that.

I've been mislynched many times for being wrong.

Once I stopped being more confident than I had any right to be, my rate of being mislynched plummeted.

okay I think we found the problem. being wrong can absolutely help people get a better read on you.
maybe in those earlier games you got mislynched for baseless and opaque wrongness or something?
but there are lots of ways to reveal your alignment that are independent of the correctness of your reads

So when you're contrasting your meta with s_s's specifically, I found it extra spicy that you, in this very game, where wrong in a way that helped me get a better read on you and guided the town to the correct lynch.

I guess this game mostly depends on whether I'm willing to blind trust my gut on implosion when I've already been incorrect once or whether I'm willing to trust that the only other slot I think is town has a good enough idea of where the game sits to have higher odds of being correct than I am.

Admittedly I'm leaning towards the latter if only because I even came into this game knowing that I was going to struggle to get confident reads from the start, but at the same time, implosion is the slot that keeps pinging me as the one with an agenda.

I mean Kagami is another slot that you KNOW is town, right? Like, I understand that me bringing up the NKA clearing me is obviously WIFOMy, but since I think I 100% survive a day with Kagami alive I'm still allowed to bring this up - hito-scum doesn't NEED WIFOM, because in a very real sense I think hito-scum would have just won D4 nigh-instantly with Kagami being alive. So if people aren't gonna see the Kagami-kill for the implosion-benefiting move it clearly clearly is, can we at least have a discussion why hito-scum might have thought he needed to kill Kagami here, or something?

[hitogoroshi]

oh, if scum meta matters - in my mafia youth I was pretty infamous for being a hyper-transparent player, who did horrifically as scum and got caught all of the time. Largely this is because I had like...10 town games in a row when I started on the site, so I just got kind of used to town posting and didn't have any other modes. I started an anon hydra with RedCoyote called Copper on the premise that my posting style was what hurt me the most as mafia, to some amount of success. My last scum game was FTL Mafia in 2014, where I actually think I put up an okay fight but I had a buddy commit an Alpha Scumtell and I felt I had to bus + just a bonkers broken setup in favor of town. Now I'm on ANOTHER town streak and haven't been scum for five years, so I have no idea where my scum game is at these days ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[hitogoroshi]

this is kind of a boring waiting room for s_s to see the light but I'll just restate the essential crisis on implo

When LLD is a very fast L-1 (or at least psuedo L-1, there was that time when Kagami hadn't officially voted but was effectively pressuring the slot), implosion came out with these very certain sounding posts:

I'm leaving my job this week and taking a break so I'll certainly have time and probably focus but I'm a bit disheveled right now.

I think the amount of info people have given for reads is enough and it's maybe a bad idea to be too specific at this juncture? That is to say I'm probably going to hammer LLD because the game seems generally not sensible if she's town at this point (for one, I don't think the way Kagami is talking about the LLD lynch is at all likely to be scum who is trying to secure a game-winning mislynch in this situation), and I'm not sure how useful it is to strongly give reads/analysis now as opposed to tomorrow.

My opinions have shifted a bit and I've found some interesting things but I don't think it's useful to talk about what bc I want to carry the stronger opinions I have to tomorrow if I'm alive without the baggage of having been kept alive after saying them, and I don't feel solid enough to want to try to convince other people of anything atm. I can if people think it'd be useful for sorting me or others but would rather tomorrow.

hito, if you think any of the possible non-LLD scumteams are viable enough to think about, now's the time to explain why.

my eyes are kind of glazing over reading that post but

I guess what I'm saying is that even if you're not at all convinced on my potential alternative scumteams and think LLD is lock scum, there's a lot of value in pretending it's an option and making people post in that world, so you should just say you think there's a chance they're possible whether you do or not :')

Really don't think this is worth the +apathy of stalling the game for days with a wagon sitting at L-1 if she's scum.

So according to implosion here, not only is LLD scum, but it's so obviously LLD that it's not even worth hearing what people will say because it will uhh, make the scum kills more dangerous or something (???). And oh gosh what terrible apathy it will be if we dared to continue the day. But when ol' Hito DID want to continue the day, this was a totally empty bluff and he laid low for two and a half days before posting this as his very next post:

Alright. I had been looking at the game under the assumption that LLD was scum, and then had a thought that Kagami+hito might actually make sense, then realized that it's impossible because of hammer shenanigans, but then remembered that it isn't actually impossible because scum aren't necessarily going to quickhammer in this setup. And that kind of ruins a lot of the way that I'd been thinking about possible teams. So I'll just lay thoughts out there

...

I don't think any 2/3 of Kagami/LLD/hito is especially unlikely or impossible. I don't see Kagami or LLD's mutual interactions as necessarily precluding a bus (in particular I feel like MS is in a fairly bus-heavy meta right now though I might be biased because the last scumgame i played was mlp). If it's Kagami + hito, I can very much see hito playing the role of not wanting to hammer in this setup, especially after I said I would, so as to still be in it after a possible missed kill. However, I really think both scum are in that three.

Now suddenly, implosion has decided that the competing wagon to LLD could ALSO be mafia, and for all of that faux-certainty before when he thought the bus was probably inevitable, he can't distinguish between the three of them at all. Instead, he's just making sure to have his options open as much as humanly possible while doing none of the push himself, even to the superlatively hilarious degree of "if LLD redflips here, I still refuse to clear the player who instantly called her out and who she dragged into a 1v1."

I think this is pretty transparently implosion starting thinking "I probably have to bus LLD; I don't want to, but I don't want to be seen actively defusing the wagon, so I'll wait around to see if hito does it or not and leave myself open to either completing the bus if I have to or voting for Kagami if hito does." This is probably why he constantly goes with "it's in the scum range of x" instead of "here is something that scum-X would do that town-X wouldn't". He'll use certain sounding words when he thinks he doesn't have a choice, but watching how quickly he pivoted to no opinions and uncertainty when he had multiple options available, and how transparently he wanted to see where everyone else fell before seeing if he had to bus or not, I think it's pretty obvious that he's the buddy here. I don't think there are any good explanations for the dramatic certainty downgrade from 763 to 806 besides "In 763 implosion figured busing was inevitable; in 806, implosion was uncertain whether or not busing would be required, and he was pertrified about locking himself out of one option or the other until he knew where everyone else would stand.

And actually that same issue where implosion is just scum holding options open vs. actually scumhunting is here:

Busy days, this game fell off my radar pretty hard. Not that it looks like much has occurred.

Not interested in pivoting onto S_S right now and doubt I will be willing to over pine but I'm happy to hear arguments about him. I could theoretically pivot onto Kagami but honestly not lynching Pine today at this point probably just leads to this game getting even more bogged down tomorrow. And the most likely way we lose this game is it dying to apathy.

"I don't want any criticism for being on the mislynch on Pine, but also I am giving myself a clear escape hatch to finish off his wagon at the end of the day as long as I will be held blameless"

[hitogoroshi]

town never change their minds, town are never uncertain, etc.

I feel like there's not a whole lot to say. If either of you want to talk I'll still be here on and off for the rest of the day but if not you should just make up your minds because spacing out doing nothing for 3 days isn't gonna get you better reads.

I mean yeah I know I changed my mind hella times yesterday and it owned bones. the issue is that your swap had no rationale besides convenience and if your initial "oooh boy I wanna vote LLD so bad! hito if you do it first everyone needs to know I woulda done it too!" was rooted in anything sincere then the arc of what happened to that and why would have been present in 806. you already know this but I am making it explicit for the kids in the back because what else is there to do when the only person I have to hang out with is scum.

at last, something we can agree on

[hitogoroshi]

Okay, I've made my choice.

Ultimately, what it comes down to is that I can see far more scenarios where implosion is scum than hitogoroshi.

I believe the Kagami kill makes more sense from implosion, it's harder to reconcile hitogoroshi's actions around the lynches over the past couple of days, and I believe that hitogoroshi has ultimately been more town than implosion throughout the game since my initial entrance into it.

If this is correct, I'm glad I managed to make up for my play day three at least. If not, then congrats on successfully pocketing me, hito. Either way, this is a learning experience for me and I'm glad i got the chance to try my hand in a game like this.

VOTE: Implosion

dw I'm town, if I was pocketing scum I would have pocketed you yesterday when you had the usefully wrong read. thank you for doing unto S_S as I have done unto you

Can you explain to me why you think hito is more likely to hammer the IC as town than as scum?

I mean, it's not about 'more likely' it's 'equally', I'm sure hito scum would have taken this chance to hammer also.

Again, Pine is NOT an IC once everyone posts after his claim, pine is IC when everyone posts --claiming Rose--. So it's not just that Cyan was V/LA and was unlikely to be able to confirm anything, but pops and Ceph affirmed their votes post-claim WITHOUT saying they're Roses, which is ALSO the play a gun makes who doesn't want to out for the transparent scum claim. I had the odds of Pine being town as effectively nil, because we had spent the entire beginning of the game talking about the gun claim should work, so it made absolutely no sense that the player who knew guns were conf would assume he's going to die + his complaints that the game was stalled with the wagon on him were totally senseless since he could unstall with the claim at any time. There is plenty of utility for scum to claim late and sow chaos - gets the real gun to CC, OR, if Cyan just keeps on lurking, it forces a stall that let's N2 Gun scum get a shot off. There is zero utility for town to do it this way, and only happens from Pine literally forgetting his role PM or whatever the fuck happened there (maybe we find out postgame?).

So the question is, do I badger Ceph and Pops to explicitly affirm if one of them is the Gun agreeing to my plan to lynch without CC, and instead make them claim? And if they both claim Rose, do we agree to sit around and hope Cyan comes back in time? What do we do if he doesn't show? Or do I just finish off the wagon before LLD has a stroke (I assumed she was locktown with Pine-scum and felt bad for her apparent desperation).

Like I don't like hearing about this being a sub-optimal play because it correctly handles scum who randomly throw out claims just to squeak out value - a play that any scum, of any skill level, can always do - and it only fails if a town player posted totally incoherently with their claim for no good god damn reason. I don't play so much anymore, so maybe the site is now full of people who would fuck it up this badly and I just haven't met them, but if you have the prior that "very few non-newbies will post saying they are certain to be killed, and then sit around waiting for deadline, while having a guaranteed town role to claim" then it's correct to just not engage with the transparent fakeclaim. Maybe I shouldn't these days, but I certainly had it until this game!

Like I said, I'm pretty sure he just thought he could get a Kagami lynch for most of the day.

thats right....you got me....I was sitting around thinking I could lynch Kagami, but when that player repped in and said "by the way, I only want to lynch Kagami and not LLD" I thought shit...my plan is ruined......

[hitogoroshi]

\o/

just checking in to let you know I'm town and you done good so you don't gotta stress before FG does the flip

[hitogoroshi]

Okay

So I can post here now the game is finished?

technically no, you leave it to moderators to close out games. I am allowed to informally tell the other townies that I am town and this is over, but dead and out of game people need to wait for Fakegod to officially declare the game over.

[hitogoroshi]

thank fuck my last blake game was a win

ya done good. you were right today and yesterday you were wrong in a committal way that I was still able to use for game-solving. nice job.

also looking back I found this funny

also some shades of meta here in that this is part of a theory disagreement ceph and I have had across three games now about whether someone having no interaction with the reads of the people THEY town read is suspicious. [it caught wickedjester scum in 17 kilos, but wicked was doing a much stronger variant of it than implo is doing so I can't harass ceph about it too much.] so anyway I think ceph town is actually a pretty strong read.

I think cohesion tell is lookin stronger and stronger the more I look for it. People voting on someone their town reads aren't without trying to sell them, figure out why their TRs don't want their target, etc. seems to be reasonably reliable

[hitogoroshi]

that's the problem though

I have major confidence problems in lylo, I actually had you locktowned after the LLD flip and I started doubting it after seeing both implo and SS pushing for you immediately

That's pretty normal for LYLO. You played it fine. It's the job of the townie here to constantly rehash their reasons, because I necessarily had a more authentic flow than implosion. You could have engaged a bit more with my stuff in the middle of D4 - I think forcing s_s to engage with my points via the medium of you doing it would have ended this a little sooner - but I'm not going to get mad that you took time to reevaluate your lock-stances in LYLO. LYLO stressful as hell and I usually just try to get murdered to avoid it.

ok did I verbally abuse you enough for not cohering with me on cyanjet-read for you to TR me

It's a lot less of a tell if votes aren't involved, imo. A better analogue would be if I voted Cyan, TR'd you, but never tried to sell you on Cyan-scum or argue with your clear of him.

My TR on you was just because I had your spewing as null and then later decided it would have just been too much hustle for scum. Effort tell is a classic for a reason (I mean hey, sure clutched the shit outta this one huh)

Well, one thing I learned from this game is never invite your RL friends to play mafia here. They grew confused and frightened by y'all, and decided to mass-exodus. I am very thankful for those who replaced in (especially to those that had very silly picks like N5 rose).

I ran this exact setup couple times off-site and they both finished in resounding town victories. The game was lot closer here. I think this setup is townsided (with 2v9), but Pine misplayed rather horrendously with his claim in day 2 to even the odds somewhat. I would appreciate it if you guys commented on the balance of the setup, given 2:9, as well for a larger setup.

Thank you all for playing.

Sorry, my mission kind of contradicted it - I like playing with old players so whenever I /in for games, I try to do it as the very first one so people from the old days see it and try to snowball the player list by following me in. So I made it kind of the worst game possible to bring new players in to. (But yes, also you should put your IRL friends in a non-Newbie game as their first. Always disaster and tears.)

I do think the setup is pretty townsided, especially if people do like...60/30/10 rose rolling, or something like that. If people clump heavily on the early days, scum can "figure it out" and draft later guns but what the fuck does that do for 'em? If you have a N3+ gun, you need to live to N3 with that shit, which is a lot harder than it sounds when townies got guns. Blocking kills is just a lot of utility. If the Rose blocked only Gun kills and not factional kills it probably swings things too far the other way, but might be interesting to start from there and figure out what happens to the setup / what you could tinker with off that starting base.

[hitogoroshi]

(But yes, also you should put your IRL friends in a non-Newbie game as their first. Always disaster and tears.)

err, you should *not LMAO

thanks Alisae

S_S I can understand the sentiment because I used to be there, but it really is worth focusing on odds and not the fear you'd have being wrong in certain ways. I mentioned this already in thread, but notice that Blake really

was

wrong in her entrance, but because she came in hard enough that I felt comfortable dismissing her pairing with Kagami, it still started the chain reaction that won us the game. It can be scary to fully commit, be wrong, and lose; but being the kind of person who full commits (while still being willing to reverse on a dime when the situation changes) has a lot of positive utility in terms of controlling the game, getting reads, catching scum out of nowhere, etc.

[hitogoroshi]

Also, sorta related, but is anyone on MS a

known crackshot

on a vig?

singer was 2/2 in a Large in my last modded game

No idea about current players though.

[hitogoroshi]

Does 13:4 sound balanced to you?

I think this kind of a unique case where the balance is less contingent on EV and more about people's mental models reacting to other peoples mental models. I might actually code a quick model just to keep my Netlogo skills fresh.