Mini 642: Bodyguard 7: (Game Over)

[BridgesAndBaloons]

vote: CallMeLiam

This is the first game I haven't replaced into. Just so you know.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

After doing a bunch of possibility trees (or whatever else you want to call them), I have concluded that if the cop and the bodyguard survive to Day 2

they should ABSOLUTELY CLAIM

If we lynched a scum day 1, then we automatically win if both the cop and bodyguard claim.

If we lynched a townie day 1, then having both claim improves our chances of winning. We would automatically be at LYLO, and even if the scum counter-claim, we still improves our chances rather than just straight up voting. Also, if we lynch correctly day 2 when both cop and bodyguard claim, then we automatically win.

I will type out my reasonings if you guys need me to.
Anyway, the most important thing is that if we lynch scum day 1 we automatically win if neither the bodyguard or cop is NKed and they both claim.
We also improve our chances if both cop and bodyguard make it to day 2 and they claim.

Because of all this, I suggest that, unless the cop is forced to claim,

the bodyguard should not guard anyone on N1

or unless the bodyguard is extremely sure they know who the cop is.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

My above post only works if both the cop and bodyguard survive. It's the best case scenario for town, but not extremely likely.

There is one reason I don't want to explain my logic. It's that I went into every possible scenario (including fake-claims), and I don't want to let scum know what is the best move for them to make. Of course, anybody here could figure out if they applied enough effort, so I'm sure scum will (or have already) done what I've done.

However, I would like to take a vote to see who wants me to reveal all my reasonings and stuff.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I did some more logic to figure out that if we lynch a mafia day 1, then the cop and/or bodyguard should claim the next day even if the other one is dead. It raises our chances of winning to at least 50%. It doesn't matter if they are both alive, actually. (of course it helps). Also realize that the percentages I worked out don't take into account scum-hunting and cop results over n1.

I think it's a waste of time to discuss our D2 strategy today, when we don't even know who we'll enter D2.

I disagree. I think that

because

"we don't even know how we'll enter D2," it's

not

"'a waste of time to discuss our D2 strategy today."

If I am NKed or lynched today, then all my work won't be shown. It's definitely not a waste of time. The question is whether scum will figure it out by themselves or not. If we think they will, then there's no harm in me revealing all my work.

jonathantan86
CallMeLiam = yes
hohum
Slaine Hayes
TheSweatpantsNinja
TDC = no

[BridgesAndBaloons]

That said, I'm indifferent to you explaining your reasoning.

So do you think scum will figure it all by themselves or that they won't? The only reason to withhold is because it pretty much tells scum what to do day 2.

I'm posting alot because my other games are at night right now. Rereading games is far less interesting then starting other ones, so I'm kind of procrastinating by posting in this one a lot.

Also, after thinking for a while, I personally think that the town can definitely figure out what their best move is Day 2 after the claims, while scum may not. So I'm voting no on revealing my reasoning.

jonathantan86 = seems to have completely ignored my post
CallMeLiam = yes
hohum
Slaine Hayes
TheSweatpantsNinja = doesn't care
TDC = no
BridgesAndBaloons = no

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I tend to assume that the other players in the game are basically competent, so yeah, they can probably figure it out.

If you think that, then me revealing my reasonings would be the most pro-town thing. Why then, did you say you didn't care either way?
Wouldn't a townie want the most pro-town thing to happen?

But I also don't think its necessary to talk about it now, as it doesn't really affect what we're doing now.

This is where I disagree. It's better than random voting in my opinion.
It absolutely affects what we're doing now. Sure, of course I don't want to discuss day 2 for that long. I'm guessing we'll be done talking about it after

page

2. However, seeing people's reactions to the idea is very informative.
Also, I need to make sure everyone understands that the bodyguard or cop should claim day 2 unless a townie and one of them are killed.

Also, some people (CML right now) don't understand my reasonings. I would want to make sure everyone believes what I'm saying is the best action for the town to do in the circumstances I described.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

assuming that other people, especially once presented with the idea, could figure it out, they wouldn't need it explained to them

I will type out my reasonings if you guys need me to.

Please.

Obviously someone needs it explained to them.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Then explain it. I do not think indifferent means what you think it means.

The first entry on my dictionary wiki for indifferent says "having no particular interest or sympathy; unconcerned" this is what I thought it means.

Are you saying you are changing your vote to yes?
I think you are, but correct me if I'm wrong. That makes it:

jonathantan86 = yes but not now
CallMeLiam = yes
hohum
Slaine Hayes
TheSweatpantsNinja = yes
TDC = no
BridgesAndBaloons = no

Jonathan: instead of just saying you were waiting for an answer to your question before you decided, you chose to make no mention of it. Was there a reason for this?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

A spot of really quick thinking tells me that if the cop investigates the bodyguard night one, then the win is no longer guaranteed. I know it's unlikely but just wanted to throw it out there.

Either you're scum, or you're making a heinous error. Considering that I

specifically

said earlier that:

If we lynched a scum day 1, then we automatically win if both the cop and bodyguard claim.

Also realize that the percentages I worked out don't take into account scum-hunting and cop results over n1.

meaning that the cop could literally not investigate anyone and we'd still win automatically.

I have to assume that you're scum trying to mislead the town.

unvote: CallMeLiam
vote: CallMeLiam

(the distinction is that my vote is no longer a random one).

Why do you care so much that I come down on one side of the issue or another, when I, in fact, am (still) indifferent?

Because staying in the middle of an issue this early on in the game makes no sense. If you think that scum would already know, then me revealing info would help the town unless you think that CML is mafia.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Yes, I did not want to give out too information just in case you were scum.

Maybe I'm misinterpreting you, but this makes no sense at all. If anyone is scum besides you, then anything you write in this thread the scum will see. So why all the sudden is it okay to give away information? Even if you think I'm not scum, somebody else has to be.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Slaine Hayes, TDC and hohum, what do you think?

Why'd you ask TDC?

Also,

prod: hohum

It has not been 72 hours yet. Once it has, he/she will be prodded.

jonathantan86 = yes but not now
CallMeLiam = yes
hohum
Slaine Hayes
TheSweatpantsNinja = indifferent
TDC = no
BridgesAndBaloons = no

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Mod:

11. If you do not post for 72 hours

or if a player requests I do so

, I will prod you by PM,

Is this (bolded) incorrect?

Oops. My bad.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Slain: do you wish me to reveal the reasoning behind it?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

The "dispute" between BAB and TSPN is a bit odd, though.

Please elaborate. Do you think it makes one of us scummy? Do you think we're scum partners trying to distance?

I interpret his post as a "no".

How? Please quote his post and explain where it is him saying "no."
I'd rather TDC answer this than Slain actually answer.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Anyone have thoughts on my CML vote?

jonathantan86 = yes but not now
CallMeLiam = yes
hohum
Slaine Hayes = no
TheSweatpantsNinja = indifferent
TDC = no
BridgesAndBaloons = no

up to hohum whether I reveal my reasoning or not...

[BridgesAndBaloons]

To what end would he be "misleading the town" by warning that its not an automatic win if the cop investigates the bodyguard? What behavior is that likely to shift to the scum's advantage?

If everyone doesn't feel like it'll be an auto-win, then the bodyguard and cop might not claim Day 2. This is the exact thing I was afraid of. In the cases I described it helps if both (or if only one is alive) of them claims on Day 2. I need to make sure that everyone understands or believes this.

I'm starting to feel like BAB has been calling so much attention to whether he's going to reveal the "big secret" just so he could find a "slip" to jump on.

Forgive me for trying to catch scum for "slip[ing]" up. I was only trying to scum-hunt.
Seriously, you're attacking me for scum-hunting right now? Explain to me how looking for slip-ups of scum is not scum-hunting.
And why are you saying "big secret?"

I certainly felt like I was being attacked for not caring whether he elaborated on his reasoning, and now he's jumping on CML on pretty weak reasoning.

I wasn't attacking you. I didn't say your behavior was scummy or not. It just really confused me.
What about my reasons for CML or weak? Are there any other better reasons than that at this moment?

And saying me doesn't make any sense because if there are no other better reasons than CML or I, then you can't attack me for voting CML because then I'd be voting for the strongest reasons I could be.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

And why are you saying "big secret?"

Because that's what you're acting like you have.

I don't see how you came to think that from my posts. I don't feel that at all.
Also, please explain to me how this comment about being a "big secret" is relevant to scum-hunting, if it is. Even if I was dancing around sticking my tounge out and saying I have a big secret, would that be scummy?

There's a big difference between pressuring early day 1 and saying "I can only assume you're scum." That's sort of strong language for a vote you're now trying to back away from.

It's the best lead I have. You

should

know that someone saying "I can only assume you're scum" on page 2 means something drastically different then saying it on page 15.

Also, you

completely

ignored most of my questions.

Explain to me how looking for slip-ups of scum is not scum-hunting.
[. . . ]
What about my reasons for CML or weak? Are there any other better reasons than that at this moment?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I don't feel like you did much Page 2 couching.

As cool as the word "couching" is, I looked it up, and I'm still puzzled what you mean. Are you saying that I haven't looked at evidence on page 2 yet?

Its relevant when you spend more time caring about how people react to whether or not you ought to completely explain yourself than about whether or not there should be claims day 2.

It's extremely important there should be claims day 2. I wasn't even considering that people

wouldn't

do that. Bottom of the line, (i just looked at the other scenarios), and no matter what, it helps for any power roles that are still alive to claim.
I would want to explain if people don't believe this, so it's important if anyone needs me to explain myself.

Also, I care about the reactions because I'm

scumhunting

. Scum might want to put doubt in my plan (since it's bad for them) by saying things like it's not an automatic win if they both claim and a scum is dead.

please answer this question with a yes or no response:

Even if I was dancing around sticking my tounge out and saying I have a big secret, would that be scummy?

Also, you completely ignored most of my questions.
me wrote:
Explain to me how looking for slip-ups of scum is not scum-hunting.
[. . . ]
What about my reasons for CML or weak? Are there any other better reasons than that at this moment?

See above, where I wrote: "I also doubt CML is any more likely to be scum because he miscalculated what conditions it would take to automatically win. To what end would he be "misleading the town" by warning that its not an automatic win if the cop investigates the bodyguard? What behavior is that likely to shift to the scum's advantage? "

see right after that, where

To what end would he be "misleading the town" by warning that its not an automatic win if the cop investigates the bodyguard? What behavior is that likely to shift to the scum's advantage?

If everyone doesn't feel like it'll be an auto-win, then the bodyguard and cop might not claim Day 2. This is the exact thing I was afraid of. In the cases I described it helps if both (or if only one is alive) of them claims on Day 2. I need to make sure that everyone understands or believes this.

The better reason is you manufacturing "controversy" in place of scumhunting.[/quote]

uh, no. Did you read my post on 46?

Also, I need you to

specifically

answer this question.
"Explain to me how looking for slip-ups of scum is not scum-hunting."

Also, are there any other bigger leads other than CML or I right now? Because if there aren't, then you can't criticize me for using weak reasons.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Sorry, TDC. I missed your questions earlier.

It seems like a pointless debate. Have you learned anything from it?

Yes. TSPN is admantly not picking a side. He's being really careful. Also, he seems weakly* defensive of CML. I expect this information to be far more useful later in the game, but it's nice getting these details.

*emphasis on the weak part.

What do you see in his post that suggests otherwise?

Nothing. You're right. I just wanted to see what brought

you

to say that.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

please answer this question with a yes or no response:

Even if I was dancing around sticking my tounge out and saying I have a big secret, would that be scummy?

Also, I need you to

specifically

answer this question.
"Explain to me how looking for slip-ups of scum is not scum-hunting."

Let me get this straight. In the beginning of the day, when there are little leads in the game, and I choose to follow one, you disagree and thus I'm scummy? And what wagon are you talking about? I'm the only one voting and no one has voiced any opinions to follow the wagon.
Do you honestly think I'm dumb enough to follow my vote for the rest of the day? Did you stop to think that maybe, just maybe, I was pushing for a reaction from CML?

Oh, and since my vote accomplished as much as it's probably going to,

unvote

I don't like votes that just "sit."

I really don't like how you have ignored questions I have directly asked you twice already in the span of two pages. This is the third time I have asked these questions (if I counted correctly). Anyway, at least tell me why you're avoiding the questions.
If you don't answer at least

that

. Well, [insert threat here].

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I don't think you're actually looking for slips.

Earlier:

I'm starting to feel like BAB has been calling so much attention to whether he's going to reveal the "big secret"

just so he could find a "slip" to jump on

.

You can choose not to believe me that I've been looking for slips when I actually attacked the first person who made a mistake. I explained why what he did benefited scum. Do you not understand my reasonings for attacking CML?

Anyway, as far as I can tell, you haven't made any new things for me to defend myself against, correct? I'm not trying to change the subject, and I'll defend myself if you bring out more points, but for now...

I don't like this lurker*.

Vote: Slaine Hayes

*

Hohum wasn't as much of a lurker as he just probably completely forgot about this game. Slain, on the otherhand, hasn't posted for 3 days. There could be other lurkers but Slain was the first to pop out to me.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

omg why I posted that I think I understand what you're attacking me for.

You are accusing me of manufacturing fake scum-tells in order to attack townies for weak reasonings? Is that right?

At this point in the game, I don't see how that's scummy. None of my votes/attacks in the begining are really going to affect how I personally am going to be suspecting the most later on. Even if I was manufacturing fake reasons (which I wasn't), those reasons were CLEARLY weak enough so that they wouldn't create a lynch. So why would scum do that?
In fact, regardless of whether I made up reasons or not, me attacking CML is an attempt to get reactions. It also unearthed a lurker, Slain. I'm more than happy what pro-town goodness resulted from my attacks. Do you consider that all of the reactions provoked are not pro-town?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

At the same time he is, however, clearly antagonizing you, which I can't see as "careful".

However, he avoided taking a side on the issue. He decided that he was completely indifferent and didn't choose one side or the other. I consider this as being careful. I was very puzzled why he was doing it which I was I asked numerous time why he was being so indifferent.

My last post was just before his last post. Any reason why he "popped out" first? I'm wondering, because you had answered my questions from that very post a few hours earlier.

Cuz I've seen a weak town-tell coming from your posts.

In fact, regardless of whether I made up reasons or not, me attacking CML is an attempt to get reactions. It also unearthed a lurker, Slain.

Reactions by whom? CML or other players?
And how did attacking CML show that Slaine is lurking?

Reactions by CML and the other players.
One reaction was for Slaine to sit on the sidelines and not voice his oppinion on the matter. I mean, if two people are arguing that're both not scum, chances are the other scum is waiting to see what happenss.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

ebwop I think I addressed all of TSPN's points in my last post also. Let me know if I didn't.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I might be ignoring this game right now because another game I'm in. It's LYLO and I'm devoting my attention to that one. It should be over very soon.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I'm back. The other game just ended.

What do you mean, the other scum? Who's the first one?

When I originally wrote this, I was trying to include both scenerarios that it was no scum arguing, or one scum and one townie into one sentence. I

ended up mixing up the two. What I meant to say was that "I mean, if two people are arguing that're both not scum, chances are

that one of the scum are waiting to see what happens. If one scum and one townie are arguing, chances are that

the other scum is waiting to see what happens"

Italics are what I added.

The question whether you should reveal or not does not seem to be such a question, either answer is acceptable and no answer will be proven wrong during the course of the game.

You know what, you're right. I think I was reading too much into people's responses this early in the game. Maybe it'll never be an issue.

I just don't like the random voting stage and I want to try to get out of it as soon as possible.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

vote: BaB

Really feels like scum to me hiding behind a strategy that would help the town. Note: not using too townie, as things he has said make me feel this way.

Okay. So I'm scum because... why? You failed to mention anything scummy about me. I really don't feel like this is a pro-town vote.

Also, I would like you to explain the maths that make it possible for us to automatically win and whatnot. I don't doubt you, I'm just bad at this kind of stuff usually.

that makes it a tie between yes and no. I'm now changing my answer to yes to explain since I worked really hard. So I'm going to write out all the reasons now.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I'm also changing my answer to yes because I changed my mind. I now think that it's relatively easy for mafia to figure out what to do to benefit them the most.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

^that was phrased badly. I was thinking about the situations and it's obvious what scum have to do to hurt them the least.

A:

Why we automatically win if we lynch a scum night 1 and if scum don’t kill the cop or bodyguard N1:

If the remaining scum doesn’t kill the bodyguard or cop, that means they killed a townie, so on Day 2, we are left with 1 Townie, 1 Bodyguard, 1 Cop, and 1 mafia.Once the body guard and cop claim, we are left with two sets of possibilities:

1) If the scum counter-claims the cop or bodyguard, we simply lynch one of them on day 2. After that we will have 3 people left on day 3 and we will lynch the scum that survived

2) If the scum do not counterclaim, then we just lynch one of the two townies or the scum. It doesn’t matter who we lynch because…
i) if we lynch scum, then we win!
ii) if we lynch a townie, then over the night we have 1 townie, 1 mafia, 1 cop, and 1 bodyguard. The bodyguard will protect the cop, and the cop investigates the either the mafia member or townie (doesn’t know which is which). Once the cop finds the alignment of one, he automatically knows the alignment of the other. He will automatically be alive the next day and use his investigation to win the game.

Awesome! If we lynch correctly today and get lucky over night, we don’t have to even scum-hunt again!

B:

Why it really benefits town for the cop and bodyguard to claim if they're both alive alive, but two townies have been NKed.

1) if there are no counter claims, then we are left with 1 Townie and 2 mafia members, 1 cop, and 1 bodyguard. We now have a 66% to win. If we lynch a mafia member Day 2, then the bodyguard protects the cop and the cop investigates one of two players (the mafia and the townie), and then knows which of the other ones to kill. The bodyguard will be NKed and Day 3 cop knows who scum is. If we mislynch on Day 2, then we automatically lose (scum has a 50% of town which is a win).
Good news! If the cop investigated one scum, the other scum, or the townie that isn't Nked or the bodyguard (3/5 people), then we automatically can correcly lynch day 2. This has a 60% of occuring. So we actually have a

86.7% chance of winning!

Math:

there's 3/5 a chance of a cop investigation over night 1 meaning a guaranteed win. There's a 2/5 chance that the cop's investigate doesn't do us any good. From the 2/5 multiply by 66% for the times we correctly lynch a mafia day 2 and add that win percent to the chance of us winning if the cop investigation is helpful

2) If the mafia counter-claim, we get a 50% chance of winning. We must lynch one of the people who claimed cop to win the game afterwards. If we lynch the correct scum on that day, then we are left with one confirmed townie (the one that wasn't claiming a power role), and two people who claimed bodyguard. The real bodyguard protects the cop while he investigates one of the people who claimed bodyguard and learns who the final scum is.

C:

Why it benefits the town if the bodyguard and cop claim if a mafia has been lynched day 1, but one of them (the power roles) has been NKed

.

1)We would be left with 3 townies, 1 mafia, and 1 bodyguard/cop. The reason the cop/bodyguard claim is to increase our chances of lynched the scum 5%. We have a 1/4 chance of lynching scum and winning on day 2. If we mislynch, after that we have a 33% of lynching the correct mafia member. This makes us have a

50% of winning

2)If the scum counter-claim, then we win automatically. We have 2 free lynches so we just flip a coin and lynch one of the power-role claimers on Day 2 and lynch the other on Day 3.

3) There is also a 3/5 chance of a cop investigating a townie who isn't NKed over night 1. If they survive they claim there result and then we boost our chances to 1/3 lynching scum and winning on day 2, and if we mislynch after that, we have a 50% chance of lynching the correct mafia member. This gives us a 66% of winning.
There is a also a 2/5 chance of a cop investigate a mafia. If they survive then we automatically win.
There is a 1/5 chance that the cop's investigation is useless, and we'd only get a 50% of winning.
So, if the cop is alive Day 2, the bodyguard was NKed, and a scum was lynched day 1, we really have a

70% to win

IF YOU SEE AN ERROR IN MY MATH, PLEASE LET ME KNOW! IF YOU WANT ME TO ELABORATE ON SOME OF MY MATH (I did it most on paper except for one of the first examples), LET ME KNOW AND I WILL.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

SHITTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT. I messed up the numbers. AH!!!!!!!!!!

B 1 is completely incorrect. I didn't realize that mislynch day 2 makes us lose.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Okay I realized that I don't have a mistake.

B 1 is NOT completely incorrect

Sorry. My previous post is wrong and unnecessary. I was misreading my numbers when I posted post 82.

Anyway....
I forgot about the last situation.

D:

Why it benefits town (but not always) to have the remaining power role claim if one power role is NKed and we lose a townie in lynch"

This situation, like situation B, puts us in LYLO on Day 2. If the bodyguard/cop doesn't claim, then we have a 2/5 chance of lynching scum. However, if the bodyguard/cop claims, then we have a 2/4 chance of lynching scum. Even if one of the scum counter-claim, then we still have a 50% of lynching scum on Day 1. We gain a

10% increase

of not losing on Day 2.
HOWEVER; if the bodyguard is alive, they can choose to not claim. The disadvantage is it is harder to lynch correctly on Day 2, however, if the bodyguard survives to Day 3, we can increase our chances from 33% to 50% of lynching scum. I recommend for the bodyguard to claim Day 2, but it REALLY depends on the situation.
If the Cop is alive and has a result on one of the players that is alive, he should definitely claim and reveal his result. If he doesn't have a result on one of the alive players, he could also choose to wait until day 3 to claim.

Personally, I'd rather have a greater chance to make it to day 3 then to have a greater chance to win during Day 3 (i.e. have the bodyguard and cop claim Day 2 in this situation), but it really is up to the bodyguard/cop and the situation. Also, I may actually be the bodyguard/cop, and I'm making sure that both scum and the town know that I'm not claiming that I have a power role or not right now.


There are a couple of incredibly important things:
1)

PLEASE

nobody say who you think is town. Like in normal games it tells scum who to NK, but in this game in particular, if people say one of the scum seems town-like, then they know who to use to counter-claim a power role, if they choose to do so.
2) Remember, in these statistics, they do not take into account scum-hunting. Only b1 and c3 take into account who the cop investigates, and all the other situations do not. So these % are actually considerabally higher. Hopefully you see that the town has a very significant chance of winning this game if we don't lose both of our power roles by Day 2.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I'm not too happy that you explained what the the best play for the mafia is re: the maths of the counterclaim but I suppose it wouldn't have been too hard for scum to work out with all the other info in front of them.

That was why I was at first reluctant to share all the information, but I realized that it's pretty obvious (at least for me) without even doing the math that scum need to counter-claim.

What about my vote for you? Nothing to say about that?

Also, my math isn't meant to guide who to lynch. Most scenarios come down to a 50/50 shot which makes it really important that we scum-hunt pretty well. I'm just thinking that it

might

(just might) be worth it to ask a random person to claim today. It's really risky, but it could win us the game. Anyway, I don't want to side-track the game with all these numbers and theory and stuff, I want to get to scum-hunting.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Obviously whoever we push to L-1 (the scummiest) should claim, but I was talking about rolling dice and asking that person to claim.
I did the math, and it is not a good move for town.
Math in small font:

If we asked a

random

person to claim whether they were a power role or not, we'd have a 2/7 chance of getting a mafia. Them claiming townie would make them unable to claim a power role later, and them claiming power role could help us get an easy win lynch with a power role counter-claim.
Of course, I realized we have a 2/7 chance of asking a power role to claim. The results of that would be

catastrophic

for town.
Also, 3/7 chance of a townie claiming which would help scum know who to NK.
Bottom of the line, it's not worth the risk.

The reason I made the math small is because I don't want people to accuse me as looking like I'm helping the town. I'm not going to lie, this post is largely useless, except for this next part:

Something useful I learned from this is that we should

not

ride a wagon until someone claims. To benefit town the most, there should probably only be one claim the first day. See above logic (quote it to see it better) to understand better.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Well you explained why you did it, you then behaved consistently with your motivation by unvoting after a reaction appeared and it didn't start a cushy bandwagon so I didn't think it needed too much comment.

Haha, I

totally

forgot about unvoting. That's strange.

The whole random person is a further attempt for me to try and swing the game in the town's favor again, but if you read the math on post 88, it is really not in favor of the town.

Anyway, I agree. I'm going to stop working on numbers and strategies for this game and focus on actually

playing

.

Mod: How long do you give players to respond to there prods?

72 hours generally (though I'm probably going to do it an hour or two earlier than that due to likely not being on the computer then)

[BridgesAndBaloons]

So the numbers say that it's quite possible that BaB is scum using this strategy

No. The numbers explain that thanks to me bringing up something important the town has a guranteed 50% or higher of winning (assuming both power roles aren't killed by Day 2).

Somehow you think that

A)

I

think that a power role is idiotic enough to mention something that would reveal themselves to be a power role. Are you serious? Is anyone here so dimwitted they're going show whether their a power role or not based on their responses to this? There's absolutely nothing they'd do different if they're a powerrole or not. Regardless whether I was power role or vanilla, I'd still post the numbers.

and
B) that I am idiotic enough to believe that my master scum-plan will work. I'm not an idiot.

Give me at least one example of something that could give away a power role by discussing what I'm talking about. It has to be an easy mistake. And please cite evidence of me trying to get a powerrole to come out.

This aint OMGUS. I don't care that you're attacking me, but you're attack is

such a huge stretch

. I can't believe you're not only attacking me for being scum, but accusing me of having a particular partner, Slain (Other people have been lying low also),

and

you're not even voting for me.

Vote:jonathan

for all the reasons mentioned above.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

A powerrole might post and question less to avoid drawing too much attention to him/herself, instead preferring to let a vanilla townie do the questioning (because vanilla townies are more "expendable").

Why isn't this this case for

every single game

? If what you're saying it true, it would be universally true (power roles posting less), especially when people speculate about the setup (which happens in most closed games). So, if you're right, scum should in all games know who to NK just based on who posts the least?
That's what you just said.

Um...*your* master scum-plan? Well the numbers are on the scum's side if they follow this plan (although a bit slightly, I concede).

I was making fun of you. You're making all these wild accusations about me making a huge plan to try to catch power roles. You're not voting either. I think you're making this points against me to see if any fish (townies) bite.

BaB, who are your top candidates for the two scum, if you have any?

Do you mean a scum-pair (two people connected together)?
Or do you want my top two suspects?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

The fact that

you've been pretty much ignoring TDC's contribution to this debate

while going after me like a rabid dog doesn't do much to help your 'not omgus' case too. My main concern here is that you're shouting down my points without backing up your statements, and that's not how I see townies acting.

I really am curious to see the response to this.

I'm also marking this quote to look at later.

Killa seven:

'sup.
Oh, and any comments on the game so far?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Okay, to ask your question back to you...how would a townie bite and how would the scum benefit from that? And secondly, how is my supposed "wild accusation" of you different from you accusing others?

Well, if you are scum, then you would love to have townies mislynch. When you made post 94, there were already 2 votes on me. That puts me at L-2. You couldn't possibly put me at L-1 without drawing attention to yourself, so instead, on post 94, you attack me while not voting, explaining not only that I am scum, but that a lurker is my scum-buddy. It really seems that you're hoping for someone else to put me at L-1.
A townie could "bite" by voting me. If a townie successfully "bites," then it would really help you (as scum, assuming you're scum), since you'd be able to put a townie at L-1, maybe get to hammer them yourself or get me to claim.
Your "Wild accusation" is wild because you made so huge of a stretch, claiming me to be scum AND extrapolating my scum-buddy from some really elaborate plan that doesn't even make sense. Plus, the fact that you don't even put a vote with your case is suspicious.

I'm also a little suspicious. On post 94, you demonstrated your understanding of the numbers and logic. So, why didn't

you

mention the towns best strategy in the beginning.

NOTE:

I just reread post 94 and came to see your attack on me is alot weaker than what I previously thought it was. However; your recent actions (insisting that what you found is evidence for me to be scum) have led me to keep my vote on you.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I was referring to BaB's attacking anyone that seems to disagree with him.

First, this is a blatant

exaggeration

.
Second, I attack anyone who's

wrong

. If you say some ridiculous idea, I'm going to attack for it because it makes no sense.

you say that my elaborate plan (which I don't think is that elaborate) doesn't make sense? But you also say that I have understanding of the numbers and logic?

Gosh, you seriously are not even close to understanding what I said.

You

claimed that

I

had a master plan of trying to get power-roles to out themselves, which is just bull shit.
Also, how the hell does you attacking me for a ridiculous plan have anything to do with your understanding of numbers?

You ask me why I didn't mention the town's best strategy in the beginning...this sounds very much like an ad hominem attack, attacking me instead of my points.

Have you played a mafiagame online before? How much experience do you have out of this site? Please answer.

First of all, I actually attacked all your points. I defended all your attacks. Hell, I even made a point against you (about not putting me at L-1), and YOU completely ignored it.

Second of all, This is NOT ATTACKING YOU! If I was attacking you I would say something like, you're a horrible newb and nothing you say is right, because you're inexperienced you're wrong.
Or, I could say, you're a total jerk, and say mean things to everyone. You're not scum-hunting you're just insulting people.

Those are two examples of ad homineum attacking. (the best examples I could think of off the top of my head). What I did is questioned why you wouldn't explain to the town what the best strategy was. I didn't attack your character at all. If you were town, you would definitely want town to know the best strategy. So I was wondering why you didn't mention it. The answer you gave me is satisfactory for now.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

That's not acting too townie, that's putting a lot of effort into appearing pro-town without actually providing the town with much.

I just noticed this.
So, by insuring that the town's chances of winning I increased by as much as 40%, and by gaining a 1/10 shot of an auto win I didn't "provide the town with much?"

By the way, I didn't really put much effort into it. As soon as I singed up for this game I spent about an hour looking to see if I could break it.

Also, I'm not

trying

to look pro-town here. Anyone who says I'm townie because I revealed the best strategy for town is a big idiot. Completely. See:
a) NO ONE SHOULD EVER even

think

of saying who they think is town in this game. It's crucial for this particular set-up. After the mass-claim, it's not as a bad thing to do.
b) If I were scum, I could easily post the work I did pre-game anyway, and hoped that WIFOM would make me unlynchable.

Even though I personally think b is a really stupid idea, it's possible, so there's no way anyone should think I'm townie for saying what I said.

And, I'm not an idiot, so I realized (before the game started) that no one should think I'm townie for posting the winning strategy for town.

Anyway, the fact that you're attacking me for "trying to look pro-town" is very ridiculous. That type of attack is way more of an "icing on the cake" then a valid reason for a vote. Come up with something actually scummy that I can defend myself against.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Forgot to do this:

unvote

.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Like you really wanted people to see how much work you had done.

I was pretty proud. I usually right huge preambles or stuff like that when I do work that I'm proud of. An example of this is my second game, Mini 553 posts 486-489 where I posted a massive summary of the game when I came in (it's probably not worth it to read the posts). I made several posts before the summary talking about all the work I was doing, and during the summary I mentioned all the reasoning behind why I thought a certain player was not a pro-town power role and expressed that I did a whole lot of work.

That game I was a townie. I wasn't

trying

to apear pro-town. It was just a by product of me being proud of the work I did. This game is the same case.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

It's the weekend, so maybe everyone else is busy.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

ah yes, but I wasn't sure if it was worth the benefit of the town knowing exactly what to do if the scum would know also. That's why I wanted to see if other people thought I should reveal my reasoning or not.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

do you have anything to say?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

As for the BaB\TSN thing: I honestly don't think scum would put themselves knowingly at the centre of discussion so early and so strongly that early in the game.

Are you saying TSN put himself in the center of discussion? (Yes or no answer, please).

Also, what you said is

very anti-town

. Please NEVER AGAIN mention if you think someone is townie again. Do not say any things that make someone pro-town until after the mass-claim. Thank you very much. Please tell me if you don't understand.

Secondly, that's just wrong. I always put myself in the center of discussion regardless of whether I'm scum or not. What you're saying here is complete WIFOM. What were you trying to accomplish by saying this?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I will put a vote on killa seven to pressure him to speak. I do not mean to lynch the lurker just yet though.

FOS:johnathantan86

. Btw, it's not

who

you voted for that got you the FOS.

1) I think that the scum's best plan is to have at least one member (maybe the other can avoid controversy) actively engage in conversation to weed out powerroles, probing if necessary, even if it means risking a scum-tell. (The numbers are in an earlier post.) Do you agree with me?
2) Supposing I'm right (even if you think I'm not), who fits the profile above the most?

I ignored this question because the answer is super obvious imo.
THERE IS

NEVER

a best play for scum. Because of WIFOM and metas of what scum do, and because different pairs always have different strategies, scum always do different things each game. It's pointless to speculate about what scum could do. For all I know, you're a scum trying to mislead us. Or there could be

two

scum lurkers.
Bottom of the line, every mafia group is different in every game, and it's impossible for townies to know what the hell they're doing until their both lynched.

So, everything about question 1 is wrong in my oppinion. I believe what you asked is side-tracking the town even more. I was trying to speed up the random voting stage earlier and failed miserably. We started scum-hunting more when I resolved my strategy for town, but it seems like you're killing the momentum again by asking this question. Can we just continue

scum-hunting?

thanks.

2) No one has been fitting the profile of role-fishing. If I saw any role-fishing, then I would be voting for that person. Role-fishing is very scummy for this game.
And no, (preemptively saying this because I know what you're thinking...) I wasn't role-fishing. Everyone has still not given me a plausible way a power role could slip-up and how what I did would make people slip up.
No one is stupid in this game. No one is stupid enough to make a slip-up that easily.

We have a bunch of lurkers to fit the second profile, and I don't think me singling one lurker out is pro-town. If you insist, I will, but I don't think it's pro-town for me to say so.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

CML. It's a simple question.

what were you trying to accomplish by saying this?

I'm having a really hard time trying to think of a townie explanation for that, and an easy time thinking of a whole lot of scummy explanations.

You wanna know a good way to lurk without getting caught? Discuss the strategy of lurking without actually scum-hunting. Oh wait a second...

FOS: CML

[BridgesAndBaloons]

TSN seemed to be suspicious of you, and I was explaining why I wasn't.

I still don't understand what is pro-town about defending someone, ESPECIALLY when they are in no immediate threat of being lynched.
Unless... were you attacking TSN's logic? If you were doing that than nvm.

mod: please do some proddage.

Thanks!

I know Alabaska J is V/LA, but I'll see if anyone else needs it.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

TDC: do you believe what CML is saying about me is scummy to do? If you don't want to answer this, don't. I think you have a reason for not saying this.

Killa: what do you think of TSPN?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Good to see you back, Alabaska J.

My vote stays, and I think Jonathan is noobtown for the record.

Are you out of your mind? Why the hell are you saying this? Seriously. Please DO NOT SAY WHO YOU THINK IS TOWN. If Jonathan is scum you just told scum that they can safely fake-claim with him. Way to fucking go.
I'm legitimately pissed off.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Oh, and Alabaska, please be careful on your comments on what I said. Don't reveal please.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

What do you think my attitude is towards traditional scum-hunting, TSPN?

If you say anyone is town, then the scum know you'll believe their safe-claim. For instance, say jonathan and I are scum. Tomorrow, during the mass-claim, in order to avoid being decimated, one of us would have to counter-claim or pre-emptively fake-claim one of the roles. You just told us that you think jonathan is town, so we know that tomorrow, if we keep you alive, we know that you will believe his fake-claim since you think he's town.

Now, you're probably not idiotic enough to completely think jonathan is town right now, but I'm making a point here. By saying who you think is town can only hurt the town. It's not scummy play because if scum say who they think is town, it's meaningless. But, it's very anti-town to say who you think is town. Please don't do it again.

Just step back and think about how anti-town it is to say who you think is town given that we know what are strategy and the scum's strategy will probably be tomorrow. Just

think.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

EEBWOP: I meant to say: "what do you think my attitude is towards traditional scum hunting, Alabaska J?"

the rest of the post addresses TSPN.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Mod:

has killa picked up his prod yet?

Yes.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

sorry for the quardruple post. Anyway, I'm not going to yell at anyone for saying who they think is town. I'm done repeating myself. Everyone should know that it is extremely anti-town, but not actually scummy to do that. Thanks.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

^that's exactly what I thought it would apear like. Thus, "I'm not going to yell at anyone for saying who they think is town. I'm done repeating myself. " I don't care how pro-town I look like.

There are things we as a town

cannot

do if we want to have the best possible chance to win

. No one else is screaming it, so I might as well. In fact, all my anger probably looks scummy.
I'm not an idiot. I don't know why you think I'm tying to "apear like the keeper of the pro-town flame" when NO ONE THINKS WHAT I'M DOING MAKES ME PRO-TOWN! Not even

I

think what I'm doing an indication of my alignment.

as for post 163, then what I did is anti-town, but not scummy. It's just like saying who you think is town. As scum it doesn't help you out, but if I did that as town, then it's just anti-town. Anyway, I disagree, scum aren't stupid, and there could possibly be two people talking together tonight, with two brains.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Killa: why don't you vote BaB?

I'm wondering if you're serious or not.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I'm wondering if you missed post 171.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I vote for lynching BaB and then doing his plan anyway.

Are you calling for someone's lynch this early in the game?
Do you consider the case on me enough to lynch someone?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Answer the question. Yes or no.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I can't believe players are actually advocating lynching me based on the premise that I have been "trying to appear townie" when

NO ONE THINKS WHAT I DID MADE MY TOWNIE!

Even if I was trying to appear townie (which I'm not), that's not nearly enough to get away for a pro-town lynch. Could you at least find something scummy I did for me to defend? Something genuinely scummy? Because as a townie there are reasons to want to appear townie also. It's not inherently scummy.

Do you think I'm stupid? Do you

really

think that I hoped to get townie points for bringing the case up?

Again, I don't care if you're voting for me. But advocating anyone's lynch at this point in the game is not a pro-town move, and you don't even have a case.

vote: Jonathantan86

[BridgesAndBaloons]

EEWBOP the vote is not related to anything I wrote in that post. The "you" in that sentence is direcred towards AlabaskaJ, who didn't answer my question, and I assumed he was asking for my lynch.

I probably should have made the vote and the rest of the post in separate posts.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Interesting question. Why

don't

YOU vote jonathan?

I'll explain pretty soon. Prolly sometime next page or even on this page.




TWAS-PVATRIAHTVJWBICTSHJWRTAMRTJPOC (those are the initials of a sentence I'll say later).

[BridgesAndBaloons]

EEBWOP: Please look at his posts in isolation first before answering my question.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

No one else sees what I'm talking about in Jonathan?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Alabaska, you're not making sense. First you said I was "trying to look town" and now you're saying I was "misguided."
What do you really think about me? How was I misguided?

I would put my attack on jon up tonight but it's late and I'm tired and prolly won't make sense. So I'll do that tomorrow.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

ohhhhh
you mean misguided about suspecting Jonathan? But I haven't explained my reasoning yet? agh I'm tired. No more posting tonight.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Prod: Jonathan

Jonathan: what do you think of Killa?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I'm kinda tempted to hammer but I'd like to know more.

holy batman!

Are you serious right now? Were you really tempted to hammer? Did some part of you actually want to write a vote against killa right now?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

What I really find disconcerting is that you were almost willing to let this day end before I even explained what those initials were or what my argument against Jonathan is.


Though yes, I do find Killa's play

very

unnerving. He's obv not acting pro-town at all. It's like he doesn't even care about this game. By "disconcerting" did you mean "scummy?"

[BridgesAndBaloons]

K, the reasons I voted for Jonathan (waited for him to come back) is that he's pretty much lurking in plain site with his posts. I mean this is a couple ways.

Looking at his posts in isolation, his begining posts really like talking about more disussion and what is good for the town, rather than actually doing anything. If feel like this doesn't make any sense, so here's some evidence to know what I'm talking about:

more discussion is good for the town. So I'm talking, trying to contribute. Slaine Hayes, TDC and hohum, what do you think?

He's going to contribute by asking

other

people to contribute? What?

Post 5 (I reccomend you read) really really seems like he's revealing his thought process as a townie (the two things I need to "straddle") so that other people will think he's a townie. Once again, these things are pretty obvious and he's not really adding to the discussion.

Post 8 is the first time he actually starts scum-hunting, but he didn't back it up with a vote. It seems he's again staying neutral and trying to test the waters with this suspicion.

Then from 8-12 he focuses on discussing scum's best strategy, which doesn't help town, but once again makes him look like he's contributing.

He is also really really careful in this game:

I will put a vote on killa seven to pressure him to speak.

I do not mean to lynch the lurker

just yet though.

the bolded is totally unnecesary. It's as if he reread what he wrote and tacked it on there to assure the town he was pro-town. It's just overly careful. However, if you see later, he is actually subtly pushing for this lynch.

He says on post 16

some people think it is good to generally lunch lurkers.


http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... c&&start=0

he backs this up with a thread so that the idea doesn't come from him.
He wants to fit in with everyone else, and if "some people" want to lynch lurkers, then I should do.
How does it help the town to be a sheep?

I don't push

very strongly

for a BaB lynch.

Carefullness is underlined.

Also, Jonathan: if you think "BaB is the best candidate because of my profile of scum" why are you voting for Killa?

So, I voted because Jonathan was acting overly careful, and he was attempting to look like he's contributing while avoiding scum-hunting.

There's one more reason, which I'm just hanging on a little longer to reveal.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Gotta pop in here just for a short time, but

BaB: I think I agree with Alabaska here re: Jon being noob town. All this looks more like carefulness than fence sitting.

I personally have never seen noobs being careful. I always seem to find noobs being super eager. Jon's carefulness, in my opinion, is not a lack of self-confidence, but is a product of him trying to look like a townie. It seems to me simply him as scum trying to look townie.

Either way, he's

trying too hard

.

Perhaps if you really would like to defend himself, you would send me games you have been in were town noobs behaved just like Jonathan did, CML? Surely you must have experience with that if you believe that's noobness.

Btw, I am fine with the votes on Killa, especially after the weird way his vote that followed me.

Also, I will be V/La from the 30th-5th. I'll repost this in bold as that date comes up.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

^lol at above.

seriously,

So for meta-game reasons, I think we should lynch him.

Wow. WOW.
Does anyone else see what's wrong with this?

Also, I will reveal those weird abbreviations (I've already written up the post) as soon as one thing happens.

KILLA:

if there are

ANY

other reasons you voted for Jon,

now

is the time to reveal them. If you don't reveal any more reasons now, I'm going to assume you didn't know about the one that I'm going to reveal.

As soon as he answers this question, I will post my things. Please note I only have access for about 2 more hours tonight and then I won't have access for another 18 hours about.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

killa please ANSWER MY QUESTION

[BridgesAndBaloons]

omg CML, I'm fucking waiting TO MAKE SURE killa hasn't any un-listed reasons for voting John.
Question: Is being impatient a good reason to vote someone?

also,

V/LA: 29th-5th

I won't be able to post my post (which is already typed out) because killa STILL hasn't answered my question...

[BridgesAndBaloons]

still not enough access to read these games.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Here is the post I had typed up. (Killa ignored my question once again, so I'm assuming that he has no additional reasons for his vote):

BAB: As it is I don't find your case on jon particularly convincing, though I see where you're coming from regarding his carefulness.

Good point. I agree, the case hasn't be exactly amazing. However, you are right about the mystery sentence explaining.

It's not another reason I thought he was scummy, it was one of reasons why I voted for him.

Here we go. The letters I said were abbreviations:
TWAS-PVATRIAHTVJWBICTSHJWRTAMRTJPOC
This Was A Semi-Pressure vote and the reason I asked him to vote Jonathan was because I’m curious to see how Jonathan would react. There are more reasons than just pressuring, of course.

Him refers to TDC. The more reasons refer to what my case was on him. I was hoping that someone would pick up that I was trying to put pressure on Jonathan and help. That's why I delayed saying what the initials were for a long time, I really believe that I need to see Jonathan defend himself. He's been playing so careful, that I was trying to get a reaction out of him. Hopefully this would have given me more evidence to figure out his alignment. I really didn't think him that incredibly suspicious, but I was trying to read him better.

PLEASE NOTE: I was not trying to get votes on Jonathan for a lynch.
I was trying to get votes for pressure. Don't even think about attacking me on some bs thing I was trying to divert attentions away from killa. I even said that "I am fine with the votes on Killa" earlier

I don't think killa was adding pressure to Jon based on the way he voted. It seemed to me like he was just adding a vote to take attention on to jon.


If this post doesn't completely make sense, it's because I wrote it in one draft a while ago and just had time to post it right now.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

(Killa ignored my question once again, so I'm assuming that he has no additional reasons for his vote):

Well he did give some reasons for why he voted me. I think that's what you were looking for

the additional reasons refer to pressure voting.

BAB: Do I understand you correctly if I say that your plan has gained you zero information on jon, because nobody understood they were supposed to add pressure votes?

No. Zero information is never gained from any action in this game.
However; seeing him react under the pressure of more votes would have given me exponentially more information about him.
Too bad.

Another reason I have done what I did is that I have found that when I'm town and other players think the same way I do, they are also town. I was kind of looking to see if I could get any personal town tells (not that I would have shared who I thought was a townie, since that's anti-town to do).

[BridgesAndBaloons]

BaB, you made a bullshit case to see who'd hop onto the wagon? Or to see how a player would react to it?

I don't consider my case bullshit.
Jon has been really careful. I consider that scummy.

BUT...
you're

kind

of right. If someone was hopping on to add pressure, I would have considered that pro-town. If someone was hopping on to advance the lynch (cough killa cough) then thats more anti-town.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

BaB: Your vote is still on me. Who do you think is the best lynch for today?

I don't feel comfortable with any person's lynch right now. Do you think there is someone that is lynch-worthy? Well, I'm not sure you should answer that.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

HOS: CML

[BridgesAndBaloons]

HOS: CML

Uh. Should the continuation of your vote be read as approval of a jon-claim?

absolutely not.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

If you don't agree with him having to claim (or being hammered) you should unvote.
Are you trying to get jon lynched without being held responsible for it?

I don't want Jon lynched right now.
I think I made it very clear I wanted

pressure

on jon to see how he reacted. I was hoping keeping him on L-1 he might do some strange stuff too look at. Anyway,

unvote

for now.


I have three suspects (jon may or may not be one of them, and there could be someone I have mentioned as a suspect yet), and I obviously have to narrow those down.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

K7 ARE YOU FUCKING KIDDING ME!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WHY THE HELL DID YOU JUST CLAIM NOT A POWER ROLE!!!!!!??????
Don't answer the question. But seriously, really

really

anti-town.
Unless you're scum, in which case, that's fine that you did that.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

As for my "backing off of Jonathan"

It's because all of the games I have ever played in have had really long Day 1s. So i'm not ready for a lynch yet. Jonathan is still one of my suspects, but i have a third biggest suspect.

I think I'm explaining that today.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Also, my biggest suspect is really tricky because they have over the top breadcrumbed a power role this whole game.

I believe that it was all fake breadcrumbing. I'm risking a WHOLE LOT but suspecting this third person, which is another reason why I've waiting for a long time.

The problem with suspecting this person, is that it may get the real cop to claim, which is bad.

I'm not sure if I want all this shit to go down, I'm really hesitant.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Btw, if you (you know who I'm talking about) really is the cop, you did an aweful job breadcrumbing.
it is so BLATANTLY OBVIOUS (at least to me) that you're breadcrumbing cop. I'm positive scum would have found it and NKed you. Given your experience on this website, you should know better.
There's no pro-town incentive for you to breadcrumb so obviously.

I've made my mind up.

I think you're scum.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

I'm making this post later. It's a long one.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Agh I got busy, but cml is worried because he fakeclaimed cop.

That's right, CML was the person I was talking about.

I think he's lying scum.

Notice how he tries to get a bandwagon against me because he knows I'm on to him. The action he would take as the real cop would be to claim right now.

Btw, the real cop (unless its me) shouldn't claim just yet.

I have a huge case that I need to finish up, but he's our scum number 1.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

to explain my actions on jonathan, I still suspect jonathan, but I had another suspect (CML) who I am more suspicious of. When you see my huge case on CML, you guys will understand why I was scared of a lynch occuring before I mentioned all of it.

Can't you guys just

taste

the desperation in

I know he's not everyone's #1 candidate right now, but I think he'd be a good lynch at this point.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Scummy things he did and why I think CML is scum:

1) he tried to get us to abandon my plan:

A spot of really qu

i

ck thinking tells

m

e that if

the

cop

investigates the bodyguard night one, then the win is no longer guaranteed. I know it's unlikely but just wanted to throw it out there.

As such, while I'm in favour of the plan in theory, I don't think we should all be beholden to it.

he explains this as:

CML, what was your working? The percentages won't change because the probability of winning is 100% already and both scum-hunting and cop investigations can only increase that number. (All this is assuming both power roles survive, of course.)

I honestly don't remember my exact train of thought there, it wasn't much though.

this whole things doesn't make sense. I'm sure he'll explain it as "oh! I was trying to breadcrumb" but he definitely could have done it in a way that wasn't anti-town. This was anti-town because my strategy guarantees a huge increase in win percentage for the town. Unfortunately my whole strategy is gone now since I found this scum fake-claiming and we will probably have to have the real cop claim eventually (but not yet).
____________________________________________________

2) More anti town behavior:

Also, what you said is

very anti-town

. Please NEVER AGAIN mention if you think someone is townie again. Do not say any things that make someone pro-town until after the mass-claim. Thank you very much. Please tell me if you don't understand.

I understand where you're coming from, but disagree.

it really helps the scum if they know who everyone else thinks is pro-town, especially in this game, especially if someone says one of the scum.
He's trying to get people to be okay with saying who they think is a townie. BAD IDEA!
______________________

3) He's lurking in plain site.

This might be cop-like behavior, but he should know better. He can

still

scum-hunt. I don't have evidence for this point but he has been very repetitive and not made any original cases. The only "case" he made was a PBPA on killa which just talking about killa's lurking. Ironic? Oh! And look at how he scum-hunts:
______________________

4)

He acts extremely carefully with his votes and does other scummy stuff.

He votes for killa7 and then unvotes shortly after on 177 after alabaska says a lurker lynch is bad. Killa wasn't close to a lynch. Sure he was at L-1, but does anybody here think killa was going to be hammered anytime soon?

Seriously, this is over-careful. He also makes a PBPA on killa which is totally unnecessary. Is he trying to get people to vote killa while staying off of the wagon? Then CML says he's

I'm kinda tempted to hammer but I'd like to know more

after alabaska votes killa.

What happened? Maybe it's the kind of confidence he got after 2-3 townies are voting for killa that is safe to hammer now? And what about being scared that killa was close to a lynch? All this makes me think his unvote earlier was a charade. He's just trying too hard to look townie.
This is also a contradiction to himself, which some people consider a scum-tell. (I don't really but still find this behavior here scummy for other reasons).

Post 224 (look at it) he's slightly encouraging me to vote for killa by saying "do you not find [his behavior] a little disconcerting?" He’s trying to killa lynched while keeping his hands clean. Hm. Seems to contradict my other ideas about him being a scumbuddy with killa. (explained later).
__________________

5) omg,

then there’s infamous post 302

.
Let’s look at every single scummy thing crammed into this one post.

OK. I think k7 is acting pretty unhelpfully, but not in a very scummy way.
I think BaB has been helpful and logical enough to put me off him as scum. That leaves TDC who I've agreed with every word from and TSPN who I have no real read on, even at this point although I did like his scummy\anti-town differences post. This leaves jonathanathanatan. I'm not gonna vote yet but the case is the best I think we have and I'd like a claim now please.

What’s with all the 180s? He’s voting for me despite saying I’m not scum. He then recently says he’s certain I’m scum. These complete contradictions are the act of a scum caught in trouble.

He then only is ready to lynch jonathan by process of elimination? What!? That’s not pro-town at all? What about me saying that I wasn’t ready for a lynch the

page before this one!

Again, he’s confidant in attacking Jonathan because Jonny is at L-1. More opportune behavior. (similar like his vote on killa).

Then he ASKS FOR A CLAIM!!!
WHY WHY WHY WHY!
There is absolutely no pro-town reason for that. Especially for the cop. The only thing that can happen from a premature claim is going to narrow down the possibilities of Nks for scum, or force a counterclaim (therefore making CML the NK, or his bodyguard the NK). The cop loses the most from a premature claim. This is not compatible with his cop claiming.
_______________

6)

The way he breadcrumbed is really scummy and not how A cop would do it.

A spot of really qu

i

ck thinking tells

m

e that if

the

cop

investigates the bodyguard night one, then the win is no longer guaranteed. I know it's unlikely but just wanted to throw it out there.

As such, while I'm in favour of the plan in theory, I don't think we should all be beholden to it.

Let's look at that closer:

Code: Select all

A spot of really qu[color=black]i[/color]ck thinking tells [color=black]m[/color]e that if [color=black]the[/color] [color=black]cop[/color]

I
m.......... the
cop

Why the hell did he breadcrumb like this? Anyone who payed the slightest bit of attention and quoting this post could have seen it. It was incredibly easy to see... that was his point. He wanted it really easy to see so that players would think he's the cop and not vote for him.

So maybe you guys didn't think that was obvious. Well, what about...

The infamous posts 96 and 97.

Even dropping hints could be disastrous for power in this game, so I really hope the bodyguard keeps quiet.

EBWOP: and the cop also of course.

holy shit. You can't get more BLATANT than this. He was even talking about droppig hints about being a powerrole. The real cop has to be EXTREMELY CAREFUL to not slip. This slip here is completely fabricated. For crying out loud he even pointed out the mistake ONE MINUTE LATER!
Who here catches a slip they make as a powerrole after only one minute? It doesn't seem real. You make a slip because you're not paying attention. YOu're not going to suddenly pay attention one minute later.
And there's the thing that he's on the subject of slipping. The real cop would be really careful especially when they're talking about slipping. So ridiculous.

After I saw this post I thought CML was a townie trying to draw the NK, but then I realized that he actually breadcrumbed cop. I think CML is scum and his slips were fabricated and not the breadcrumbing the cop should do.


other wierd stuff:

As for BaB's strategy and math (not helped by the use of some tiny text btw) it looks solid enough.

I'd rather not rely on it and scumhunt as much as possible first, but it's nice to know we're at a slight tactical advantage. I'm not too happy that you explained what the the best play for the mafia is

re: the maths of the counterclaim but I suppose it wouldn't have been too hard for scum to work out with all the other info in front of them.

This just (underlined) seems like he's saying "yes I'm townie! I am! We have a tactical advantage.

We!

Get it? Because I'm also a townie. Oh, and I'm sad that scum know what to do."
It's just not something a townie would say.
It's all just obvious stuff to say as if he's trying to look townie.


Possible scumbuddies (I have not done much work on this section yet, as he is not proven scum yet):

CML’s vote on me for not revealing my abbreviations is also odd. As Tdc put it “it is obvious why you refrained from posting your revelation” (post 260). Maybe a way to get the heat off of his scumbuddy, jonathan? I dunno.

He also shows a connection with killa saying “Did K7 ask for a replacement?” (272). I totally missed this, and TDC did too. Maybe caught off by their scumbuddy replacing? However, I earlier said that I didn’t think they were scumbuddies. So maybe I’m wrong.

Again, I did barely any research on scum buddies and this information is really bad here. I just put it because I stumble across them on the same page (11). I also listed these two people because I already suspect them. Again, I don't think it's too pro-town to focus on scumbuddies just yet, but maybe it is.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

for the tl;dr just read the italic statements by the numbers.

vote: CML

I'm actually really confident

post 342, killa I was addressing CML, not you.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Ah, so you're claiming Vanilla now.

I'm flat out not claiming.

Why not? (I

think

I know the answer, but I need to hear you say it, or at least hint it at).

[BridgesAndBaloons]

for the record, I'm happy with a jonathan or CML lynch.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Sure,
but after CML explains claiming cop.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

okay

I believe the best way for the claims to go tomorrow is for each person to simply claim their role and then we discuss. I have reasons for saying this, but if you guys don't want to, I guess we won't do it that way.

I think I understand what happended. There's a shit load of abreviations I need to do right now.

FIrst of all,
IiptCallmeLiamiatdtnk.tiwiot,btithws.Iphnact.Ap.


second of all,
THIS ONE IS REALLY IMPORTANT:
Ipocbewiatstiicbtsc,tmbstcc.
Twictttia,wwhacb.
tiaatbink

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Also, I believe that the bodyguard should not protect anyone. I believe this because I don't think CML is the cop. End of story.

Oh, and ALabaska, thanks for making sure I'll be alive tomorrow to share my abbreviations.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

assumption for this post: CML is scum

I also need to look at all the players pushing me as CML's partner. They're setting up a mislynch tomorrow. This doesn't mean they're scum, but I'm sure there's someone here that's really wanting it to look like I'm CML's partner. (I'd actually be okay with being lynched tomorrow, as long as we get scum today, and people look back at whoever I suspect tomorrow.)

[BridgesAndBaloons]

EEBWOP: THe assumptoin for the last post is that JONATHAN is scum, not CML.

Replace every single CML with Jonathan. I have CML in my mind. arg.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

This doesn't mean they're scum, but I'm sure there's someone here that's really wanting it to look like I'm CML's partner.

Does this sound to anyone else like bab already knows jt is scum? It sounds to me like

you're

trying to set up a mislynch.

lmao. Read the first sentence. I was assuming for the purpses of the post that Jt's scum.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

About being alive tomorrow, I was referring to post 373.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

bah.

(woohoo! I drew the NK as vanilla!)

[BridgesAndBaloons]

wow, totally caught CML day 1. I think that if Jon wasn't lynched we totally would have had this game, easy. I don't like how this game ended. Very lame and anti-climatic. I was going to offer to replace in as TSN, but I was pretty sure he was scum and I didn't want to win and lose this game.

Any suggestions on my play today? How could I have better handled the whole Jon/CML situation?

Oh, and why the hell didn't Jon claim?

What was with NKing me? Did you think I was a powerrole or did you think it would take heat off of the CML case or was there another reason?

[BridgesAndBaloons]

Vote callmeliam.

Now that we know its not true, crumbing "I am cop" is pretty damning.

this is when I knew TSpN was scum while reading the game.

You know what, I'm pretty proud of this game. Found both scum (the other after I ded) and did all the number strategic stuff.

[BridgesAndBaloons]

i ded= i died