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Post #27 (isolation #6) » Wed Jul 27, 2022 5:05 am
Postby Aristeia »
In post 26, Coral wrote:On Ausuka, I personally lean slightly town on the claim. I think it would draw too much unwanted attention for her to be willing to fake it.
uh
i have never seen a town lim a miller claim. usually its just believed automatically.
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Post #29 (isolation #7) » Wed Jul 27, 2022 5:06 am
Postby Aristeia »
In post 24, Coral wrote:Hello everyone!! I'm really excited to play with you all
I have an idea, hear me out. The thing is, scamper's avatar is too cute. It's too powerful. If he's scum, we're literally never going to catch him because people will be about to vote and then they'll look at that cute little cat and go "aww" and then not have the heart to go through with it. So what I propose is that we eliminate him now before he has a chance to post again. I've run the numbers on expected win percentages and there's no time to explain it in detail, but trust me, it's the mechanically optimal play.
mechanically I don't think a miller makes a lot of sense in a micro, there just doesn't feel like the space for it.
I don't recall ever seeing a miller be in a micro, but if you have experience with a micro with a miller, please link me.
I guess I also don't think Ausuka claims miller in the manner she does - I have a different mental model in my head about how she would claim miller if she were a miller.
It's not something that I feel confident in - just a starting point for early in the day.
In post 51, Aristeia wrote:I guess I also don't think Ausuka claims miller in the manner she does - I have a different mental model in my head about how she would claim miller if she were a miller.
??????
I think if you were a miller you would've had a different opening.
In post 89, Datisi wrote:phoenix kinda feels like he's trying to be ~logically correct and consistent~ without having the
my way too early solve is 2 in {phoenix, done, coral}
What's Coral doing in there?
she's one of the people i do not townread at all
Spoiler:
excluding aristeia as well because i do not want to have her in my poe right now even though i don't have a reason not to have her there
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Post #171 (isolation #25) » Thu Jul 28, 2022 1:55 am
Postby Aristeia »
In post 168, Xayah wrote:I feel fine enough about most people in the thread that they've given me enough to work with minus Meg and Ari so I will continue voting them until further notice
I am not sure this method of scumhunting is very fruitful
In post 230, Aristeia wrote:she's playing by the philosophy of "post things to avoid death"
Hey, not true I'm used to play 1 irl day phase so this 9 player stuff means I can just kick back and take my time and not have to worry about anything. It's quite a nice change of pace. Although, I do miss the instant results of finding out if I'm correct read wise. My only real strong TR atm is the replacement and Done
?
I am saying your process is basically "these people have posted enough to not be on my death list for today" and "these people have not"
In post 168, Xayah wrote:I feel fine enough about most people in the thread that they've given me enough to work with minus Meg and Ari so I will continue voting them until further notice
I am not sure this method of scumhunting is very fruitful
I said this before you voted for me and I don't really care if you vote for me or not.
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Post #250 (isolation #37) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:29 am
Postby Aristeia »
In post 246, Xayah wrote:I can easily point to things I think look villagery in a lot of players or at least the effort put into the stuff they're doing. I cannot make that claim about you or scammper.
I don't think effort correlates to alignment unless there's established meta that makes the read better than rand.
I think your line runs more along the vein of "she's not efforted as much as everyone else so she doesn't deserve to survive today
yet
" which is unlikely to be compelling to anyone. I think you need to push harder to actually get things to happen.
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Post #256 (isolation #40) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 12:56 am
Postby Aristeia »
In post 255, Xayah wrote:I don't think it's hard for anyone to look like a conventional villager as mafia considering it's a basic skill and I will play this game under the assumption everyone knows what they're doing to some degree. Plus I don't know any of you so I don't think I could even answer that statement without it being a shot in the dark.
This is why I don't think the way you are sorting is going to be very productive or accurate.
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Post #270 (isolation #41) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 4:00 am
Postby Aristeia »
In post 257, Xayah wrote:I am known for my above avg read rate so for now I will just have to trust that my style of sorting players works. It has been a minute since I've been on this site so only time will tell.
I hope you don't take this the wrong way;
You have three completed games on this site where you are on the limwagon on d1; the hit rate is [1/3] (33%)
I have ten completed games on this site where I am on the limwagon on d1; the hit rate is [7/10] (70%)*
I can tell you right now that your read on me is incorrect but I'm excited to see where you go from here.
*
many of these are just me shamelessly sheeping Datisi because he's so good
Edited to make tiny text legible. Please don’t use illegibly tiny text, as per my rules
-Irrelephant11
Last edited by Irrelephant11 on Fri Jul 29, 2022 8:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
In post 257, Xayah wrote:I am known for my above avg read rate so for now I will just have to trust that my style of sorting players works. It has been a minute since I've been on this site so only time will tell.
I hope you don't take this the wrong way;
You have three completed games on this site where you are on the limwagon on d1; the hit rate is [1/3] (33%)
I have ten completed games on this site where I am on the limwagon on d1; the hit rate is [7/10] (70%)*
I can tell you right now that your read on me is incorrect but I'm excited to see where you go from here.
*
many of these are just me shamelessly sheeping Datisi because he's so good
This isn't my main account my main account is in my sig. Plus, I've been playing off site for a year where I have a 60% town WR and something in the 70s% wolf WR. So yeah, you could say I'm a bit confident in the way I read people but if a townread of mine put a stop to one of my pushes I'd hear it out and prob look elsewhere but obviously rn I have no reason to do so.
Please show where I called you a wolf? Just because I'm putting pressure on you doesn't mean I think you're a wolf rn.
My criticism of your approach relates to its effectiveness and accuracy - your response is that by meta you are quite effective.
I contrasted the accuracy rates of our approaches to the game as evidenced by success rates on D1 wagons we are on.
I am aware that you probably don't have a good read on me at this point in the game.
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Post #276 (isolation #44) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 5:59 am
Postby Aristeia »
I'm a bit of an overbearing control freak
at times
all the time and it rubs people the wrong way and I am trying to exercise restraint to take things a bit easier so that I don't get blacklisted by everyone on the site.
so I'm trying to not express every thought that passes through my head.
If there's something you'd like to talk about in terms of reads etc - I am happy to talk with you about anything.
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Post #314 (isolation #47) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:37 pm
Postby Aristeia »
In post 300, Datisi wrote:ari is also lowkey townie. the agruing with xayah doesn't do much for her position in game which like. idk why scum!her would care kinda. yes this is directly going against what i said earlier about their convo, fight me
I worry about you townreading me for bad reasons -> scum!you :[
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Post #316 (isolation #48) » Fri Jul 29, 2022 11:38 pm
Postby Aristeia »
I lowkey think maybe the scum team is just Ausuka/Datisi for ~reasons~ but I want Dats to roll town with me finally so I am going to hope it's just no true ^^
In post 316, Aristeia wrote:I lowkey think maybe the scum team is just Ausuka/Datisi for ~reasons~ but I want Dats to roll town with me finally so I am going to hope it's just no true ^^
You hit the nail on the head. What would the reasons you mentioned be? Gut, any posts? Because you're correct, but i wanna see you solve this yourself first.
they have a level of comfort interacting with each other that I think is missing in their interactions with other people.