TM 2023 | Open: PYP S_TM | Endgame

[Alisae]

I am going to bedge goodbye

[imaginality]

Maybe swap Datisi and Bella

[Datisi]

Claiming UB-rolecop seemed double edged to me because I could envisage players suspecting me would be more motivated to vote me out rather than less.

yeah i don't really believe this

this is a setup where it's relatively difficult to claim a role (or at least the pair) that you aren't, so i don't think many people would've gone "he's claiming TPR just to save himself". other than that, what reason is there for people suspecting you to go "actually i want to vote out imag even more now"?

The one thing I'm still really concerned about with imaginality is why town!imag claims early in the first place, especially with UB as a 12-slot. Like, if you are low in the draft and have a good role, I would think you would want to conceal it because scum likely won't be PR hunting at the bottom of the draft.

this is making me think, like. if imaginality is town, he knows that his claim is potentially valuable, especially if there's a good pr death early. so i'd expect more, like, survivalistic acting throughout this day, i'd expect him to be actually pushing things in top draft or at least not be afraid of more strongly pushing someone like lld that he thinks is scum.

I was pushing mith, he's in the top 4. I still scumread him. But I don't think enough others do?

I can't keep up with LLD 1v1 - I've made my case on her and hope it'll convince others to help push her but D1 pushes aren't something I'm particularly known for in active games.

Also I'm not sure either that pushing top draft players or pushing LLD hard is in line with your idea of me being survivalistic - seems like it would attract more focus and counterpressure? So if I drive that harder I'm being less survivalistic, if I push it less I'm not doing that enough? Maybe I happen to be striking a happy medium?

but his play here kinda feels like more of the... inconsistent mindset things i pointed out earlier about his play. trying to both argue that top draft isn't a bad flip and not piss off town-lld with strongly pushing her.

There are easier ways I could avoid pissing off LLD if that was my aim.

sorry i'm not sure if i made myself clear there - based on what you said about "i'd be fine with top draft flipping today" and later on clarified it's bc you're the UB, it would make more sense for you to be more aggressive about pushing in top draft than you have been. because from town-you pov: if you yeet a scum PR, that's amazing bc not only do we get rid of scum, but town now also gets that PR; if we yeet a town PR, well sucks but at least we still have that PR in town

and you said yourself why UB is dangerous to scum and generally i see more... carelessness? aggression? passion? in town that thinks that way about their own role

alternatively, if you decide to conceal your role a bit more, i don't think you do the "hehe maybe we should like maybe top 4 anyone" because i don't think town you thinks that strongly convinces anyone

like you say "happy medium" but to me it seems like "worst of both worlds" because you're neither getting a good role and you're forced to reveal yourself early, and i feel like there's enough inconsistencies that it doesn't make sense from town-imag

[Datisi]

Why would he as a wolf ub/rolecop plan on claiming????

[Staeg]

I really want to lim both Rad and Mara but they're near definitely not scum together

Why?

I don't see s!Mara's only interaction with the thread for a while being a weak wagon-y vote on s!Rad with bonus points from the readslist not backing off of the take at all

Staeg, why did you vote imaginality? As far as I can tell from ISO you have said nothing about him at all.

I did mention a scumlean very early under moniker "implosion", but you're right, I haven't said anything about him after that; tldr is I just haven't seen anything that makes me go +town on him (the first time he mentioned the mith scum case I felt quite positively, but the followup/responses to mith's responses didn't go well) and every other post pushes me just a bit further in the scummy direction, lemme go dig for examples

[imaginality]

Claiming UB-rolecop seemed double edged to me because I could envisage players suspecting me would be more motivated to vote me out rather than less.

yeah i don't really believe this

this is a setup where it's relatively difficult to claim a role (or at least the pair) that you aren't, so i don't think many people would've gone "he's claiming TPR just to save himself". other than that, what reason is there for people suspecting you to go "actually i want to vote out imag even more now"?

If I were scum then if I don't claim they think (based on me being 12 in the draft) they're most likely voting out a mafia goon, and maybe a strong scumread on someone higher in the draft is more tempting to them; whereas if I claim UB-rolecop they think they're voting out a mafia rolecop (or UB) and less likely to be tempted by other targets.

sorry i'm not sure if i made myself clear there - based on what you said about "i'd be fine with top draft flipping today" and later on clarified it's bc you're the UB, it would make more sense for you to be more aggressive about pushing in top draft than you have been. because from town-you pov: if you yeet a scum PR, that's amazing bc not only do we get rid of scum, but town now also gets that PR; if we yeet a town PR, well sucks but at least we still have that PR in town

and you said yourself why UB is dangerous to scum and generally i see more... carelessness? aggression? passion? in town that thinks that way about their own role

alternatively, if you decide to conceal your role a bit more, i don't think you do the "hehe maybe we should like maybe top 4 anyone" because i don't think town you thinks that strongly convinces anyone

like you say "happy medium" but to me it seems like "worst of both worlds" because you're neither getting a good role and you're forced to reveal yourself early, and i feel like there's enough inconsistencies that it doesn't make sense from town-imag

I think this is a playstyle difference maybe - I don't want to play carelessly with my role, and I think the only games I've been aggressive D1 are micros, in 13+ I think my strength as town is when I get by for D1 or so and then help figure stuff out on later days. Certainly I can imagine you in my position would approach things a bit more forthrightly.

I especially don't want to play carelessly since if we did end up limming low in the order instead, there's still a fair chance I get something if we lim VT and scum NK someone with a juicy PR. But at the same time I didn't and don't think we need to shy away from limming high in the order given we have me as UB to mitigate the risks. So I first tried to nudge town to think that way, and then openly claimed now for reasons already explained.

[Staeg]

[..]
When I wrote the italicized, I hadn't gotten to that exchange. Didn't go back to edit it. ~shrug~ I would just rephrase it: I don't have reason to think LLD doesn't believe that scum are likely to be in the bigger groups and that that is important. I think she's wrong about that (the importance of "scum are likely to be in bigger groups" in the absence of "scum are more likely to be in bigger groups than to be in an arbitrary group of the same size"), but being wrong is not a particular strong scumtell in my experience.

What is scummy to me is how she pushed it and how the argument about it progressed. But that is still mostly vibe at this point, because I'm old and slow and still don't feel at all caught up in this game.

I'm not entirely sure what you mean by "mech" (is this what the cool kids are saying these days?). I'm also curious why you didn't actually push on LLD after the 311/313 exchange. As you say, 313 was really bad... so why no follow-up on that until now?

is mith's response to imaginality's potentially interesting observation about mith's stance on LLD and a counter question, to which imaginality responds with

Hey good timing! That's what I've been mulling over today. Is one of my scumreads on the two of them wrong, or are they bussing?

Currently my position is... I still back my reads. My gut was good the last game I was in, I think I'm on the right track here too.

However, I actually don't see it as a bus as such precisely because mith pulled his punches a bit. Yes mith's voting LLD but like in the post I quoted previously I feel like town!mith would be pushing the LLD wagon more.

So I think it's like someone proposed earlier in the game with Ythan - distancing more than bussing, because of being confident that LLD can avoid being today's lim.

However if one of my reads is wrong it's more likely the one on mith since his recent posts read okay to me and I know I do sometimes tunnel on particular points on people.

that last line is quite the question mark raiser - imaginality still suspects mith, but a little less because his recent posts read okay, but not to the point that he'd want to respond to the relevant question in there

I thought I explained that but basically I feel like a townie suspicious of LLD would be pushing harder on that slot. Especially after 313. Whereas scum have reason to not push as hard if they're only trying to distance from their buddy.

right, except imaginality didn't push on 313

at all

until this very post (besides a throwaway "like mith said, 313 really was bad" in 695)

[Staeg]

My point was I think it's less likely a townie comes up with a towncase on Marashu as detailed as LLD did. It seemed almost perfomatively thorough.

on top of being baseline wrong, this ignores the context in which the towncase popped up - it starts with her quoting Datisi's "I wish I could understand the machinations of your mind"

I have a question for you LLD while we're both here - who are your top 3 or 4 scumreads at the moment?

this just reads hella like looking for fake engagement, what were you hoping to get out of this? would her quote-posting her Maratown case get you anywhere? if you're going to say "if she had new reads that might tip me towards t!LLD" I'll roll to disbelieve

[Staeg]

Note: "more likely" to be wrong, not *likely* to be. I'm not sure what exact percentage I'd put on it but by way of example I could think I had 30% chance of being wrong about you, 20% chance of being wrong about LLD, but that still means I think I'm 56% chance of being right that you're scum together. So in my mind that's why I shifted my vote despite scumreading you both.

this is a bit of an arcane moonshot, but imaginality strikes me as a probability-conscious person who generally knows math, and these just... don't feel like the numbers that a townie (=someone actually keeping track of what the odds of someone being town vs scum) looking for numbers to grab for an example comes up with - they are far too high/certain this early in the game and I have trouble imagining a townie going "yes, 56% that I'm right about an entire scum pairing sounds like a good example to use" (the odds at the start being 4.5% afaict)
((I would have much less of a concern if imaginality wasn't also the person to point out the 1-in-5 thing))

[Staeg]

Also, having thought about it a little more myself, I think there's also actually a possible advantage to limming top 4 today that might not apply tomorrow.

also didn't notice this the first time around at all, but now @imaginality was this meant as a breadcrumb or what happened here? surely you didn't only then realize that a PR getting lynched would get you a PR?

[Staeg]

My townread on Staeg was basically just because they seemed very relaxed about Alisae's scumread on them. "Ok ya I see why you see it that way" and "I don't have any issues with your vote on me now, gl".

If Staeg is known for being cool under pressure then that attitude becomes null I guess (and I supposed they could be getting coached by their team). I could see maybe that asking Alisae why she moved her vote off Staeg might be performative.

Does anyone have good meta on Staeg?

They interacted with LLD this way as well and honestly, I don’t see why it’s town?
It’s not doing anything to move the game forward and this is how I love to interact with town who is right on me being a wolf. Go with the reasonable “ya I can see why you think that” approach and hope u get tr’d for it

nah, there are a lot of worldlines that end with me lobbing you/LLD in the scumpile for how those resolve, but in your case it was me wearing underwear as a hat (you weren't actually contradicting yourself as I was p sure you were at the start of that interaction) and LLD could've tried brewing up some bullshit failing-to-match-reality answer instead of the honest and likely true "I, uh, don't actually know what I was saying here, but here's my best guess"

[imaginality]

Wow Staeg, you sure liven up when you're the counterwagon.

Goodnight from me

[Staeg]

good one
remember to respond to this when you're back, I do want to understand what was happening there

Also, having thought about it a little more myself, I think there's also actually a possible advantage to limming top 4 today that might not apply tomorrow.

also didn't notice this the first time around at all, but now @imaginality was this meant as a breadcrumb or what happened here? surely you didn't only then realize that a PR getting lynched would get you a PR?

[Datisi]

lynched

heads up, this word ain't allowed anymore.

do you mind giving me a rough list of where you're at in this game? can be just a naked readslist

[Staeg]

lynched

heads up, this word ain't allowed anymore.

do you mind giving me a rough list of where you're at in this game? can be just a naked readslist

my bad re: badword, have been trying to avoid it but the muscle memory is rough

readslist:
Ceph and Datisi gigatown
mith, Alisae, LLD town
Gimli leaning town
Bella (soft pointers in both directions) and Mena (basically no pointers, somehow; wish he would talk to me) at ~null
Ythan leaning scum
Rad, mara and imaginality scum, but absolutely not all together and even pairwise fits are hard

[Datisi]

Ceph

can i hear about this one pls?

[Lady Lambdadelta]

hey folks, checking in to say i'm feeling under the weather today, not sure if it's surgery stress or a bug but i'm gonna need a day off to rest without thinking about this game

we have enough time on day to grant me that so, please don't slow the game for me i'll make sure to read everything but don't like, end the day phase without my input? Thanks

[Staeg]

Ceph

can i hear about this one pls?

sure, here's a grab bag of sentiments:
the biggest one by far is how often their vibe on the thread mirrors mine (LLD emotions aren't AI, blech.., getting engaged by Alisae but then walking off to play videogames (while still noticing how others did/didn't react to them doing the fakereads thing without knowing that he would walk away), the LLD bluff thing, noticing moments when people ascribe reads to them that didn't exist (982), how trying to keep up with all 4 games without being drawn in by his own feels, his back-and-forth with Rad being quite parallel to my own worries about Rad, the feelings about Alisae's and LLD's post quantity, the entirety of 1260, the jokey approach in 1471 (and generally his jokes just land incredibly well for me given where I expect a town person might be if they are online and posting at the times he is posting))
among all the people doing references to their team's reads and how they affect their own reads I find Ceph's to be closest to my own experience of interacting with my team (mostly absent but sometimes popping in with 1268 - I haven't talked about what's marinating in my mind based on teammate takes but that lends more credence to him doing this because it's what's happening, not because this is the Thing To Do)

after going through ~all of his ISO I just don't have any instances of him saying anything that makes me go "wtf how'd you get

there

" and 3/4 of the posts have me going "ya same", which feels way above par

[Cephrir]

I think UB is a low prio pick in this playerlist and generally a safe grab. I would be very surprised if UB turned out to be high priority and I mean, Imaginality is claiming it and he is low prio so like it's safe to say that I think this is a good read. I don't think many players in this playerlist are going to be interested in a role like UB or Rolecop. I think UB being claimed from literally anyone else on the playerlist would probably be a scumclaim but because it's coming from Imaginality, he could be a town!UB and honestly as I am typing this out and writing it out, I could see him picking UB. tbh I honestly think if I was in his position, I would probably lean towards the vengeful if you play like limbait but have good reads and can attract wolves to push you while identifying those wolves correctly.

I totally can understand him not wanting to pick up the neighborizer, I don't think he's a player who benefits from supportive playstyles and neighborizer is geared towards players who can lean into supportive playstyles.

UB is best at either high prio but not first pick because as first pick you could grab literally anything else. 2nd pick if you're a villager COULD be good if 1st pick is also a villager but I feel like there might be opportunity cost at play here.

Last PYP I got UB in the 2 slot and like 3 other people picked it

[Cephrir]

I kind of want to vote datisi for boring me

Players that bore me are frequently scum

[Cephrir]

Staeg has comfy pockets

[Rad]

LLD Rad Marashu Gimli Cephrir Imaginality Bella Datisi Ythan
Mena Staeg mith

btw Rad Me Bella Marashu LLD Imaginality Cephrir is 7 votes.
Is this voting bloc of interest to all members within it?

I'm hesitant on ceph but if you're confident there I'm comfortable with it

[Bellaphant]

Also, noone in the thread seems to be tr ING steag but no-one is voting them

...

the main thought about the top of the draft for a while has been "we don't vote top of draft today" why are you saying this as if it's some sorta gotcha for why staeg is scum?

? I'm not? It links to everything else we were saying about the slot being kinda ghosty....I hadn't seen many people with compelling reasons to tr them but also not enough to vote.

[Alisae]

I didn't like Cephrir then pushing for a quick end to the day in 1552 and LLD's reaction seemed overblown like not even considering the possibility of me telling the truth.

I'm getting to the point where I want to end the day and want a flip. I don't think wanting day to end is anti-town here. It's not like Demon Slayer where wolves just screaming for day to end when it definitely shouldn't have ended, I think we had a very productive day and I'm getting ready to settle.

I think he's trying to solve rather than trying to mislim.

Can you give me more here?

[Alisae]

i think scum him would actually be less likely to "actually push" in top 4 because that is going to get stronger backlash. and "threw the idea out and tried to see if anyone would buy into it" is not how town plays

By this logic, I don't think he would angle for this at all as a wolf. If he wants to avoid backlash, there are plenty of other ways to avoid blacklash. In fact, saying they might have a reason to suspect top 4 is not something that you want to post if you are trying to avoid backlash.

Like if you're trying to avoid backlash, you don't say there is a reason to suspect top 4 and then not do anything with it, push lld, and claim UB pre-emptively. Like no lmao

None of the shit you have to say about Imaginality makes fucking sense.
You're saying that he could do all of this shit in a vacuum but it doesn't seem like you're actually considering if it comes from town or scum or not but just saying "IT COULD BE A WOLF"

I think the way Imaginality played it is how I think town!Imaginality would play it out.