Open 879: Fire and More Fire [game over]

[Merlyn]

(and it's not square not to drink!)

[sheepsaysmeep]

radical rat can u talk more about ur read on me? I think it's kinda shit

[sheepsaysmeep]

more specifically, I do see why you originally voted cook, but I think youre trying to exude a lot of confidence about your wolfread on me that feels not fully backed, so im curious if theres anything more / more updated about me

[Radical Rat]

I think towwl came on a bit strong with a chainsaw before replacing into Drew, who has since mostly just pushed my townreads with reasons of varying degrees of bad.

Cook herself was mostly fine during RVS, though I don't care for the self-vote, especially since she unvoted without voting anyone else, then mostly faded into the background, with the posts she did make not being very good. Since you've been here, the main thing of note's been the readslist, which... doesn't really do much for me, not least because of the misrepresentation on me. While I've already admitted my post wasn't as clear as I'd thought it was, I still think in context it shouldn't have looked like I was just co-opting Firebringer's case, and framing it that way was deliberate on your end.

Plus, no one seems to be actually townreading or defending you, yet your wagon isn't moving much. I'd expect scum to defend their buddy, but I'd ALSO expect them to be opportunistic here if you weren't their buddy.

So I think your partner (who I am guessing is Drew) is trying not to engage and reinforce the association, while the other pair thinks you're too likely to be scum to actually push, and doesn't want to defend too hard in case you go through.

[Skygazer]

what are people's read on Black? there was a post that pinged me lemme try to find it

[Skygazer]

i'll be here to vote before deadline

[Radical Rat]

what are people's read on Black? there was a post that pinged me lemme try to find it

Mild to moderate degrees of scumminess

[The Bulge]

if your wagon is townlead, with ausuka as the most likely scum, what do you think is more likely: that scum is scumreading you? biding their time? pushing elsewhere?

I'd expect that they're mostly staying out of it. If I get flipped today, I think the people on that wagon would be under a lot of scrutiny. I don't think that makes sense to look for scumreads.

Compare Drew/Meuh/Rat and the people who are basically ignoring the wagon entirely.

They're all kind of just dancing around my wagon, not committing to it but also not really condemning it. I think that's where scum likely is.

not sure how this stance aligns with your readslist

[The Bulge]

I haven't been dancing around the Bingle wagon, I have been pretty clear I don't think anything they have done seems scummy and I don't have any interest in joining it.

I do find it strange that Bingle includes me in the group that is 'dancing around' the wagon.

i agree with bingle here, i prompted you to take a more direct stance but my question went ignored

[Datisi]

vote count 1.14

with 15 votes in play, it takes 8 to make a decision. day 1 ends in (expired on 2023-06-28 17:00:00).

yeet

Bingle [5]:

Ausuka, Firebringer, The Bulge, Invisibility, osuka

sheepsaysmeep [3]:

Donempire, Radical Rat, Umlaut

Ausuka [2]:

Black, Doctor Drew

Black [1]:

Meuh

Meuh [1]:

Bingle

Donempire [1]:

Merlyn

Doctor Drew [1]:

sheepsaysmeep

not voting [1]:

Skygazer

mod notes

this is a mod note.

flavour

[The Bulge]

Bingle- slight townlean. I don’t agree with the Ausuka case but I appreciate the case they made. The main reason I lean town though is bc his wagon is not a good one.

what do you mean by not a good one? you townread everyone on the wagon, so even if you think the reasoning is poor i dont see how that translates into a town lean on bingle. that read only makes sense to me if you believe the wagon to be scum-driven

[The Bulge]

After reading this thread the word 'stupid' no longer feels like a real word

theres a word for when u see a word so often it feels like it has no meaning.
But for the life of me i can't remember.

Time for google

GeorgeBailey

[The Bulge]

Semantic satiation

Semantic satiation is a psychological phenomenon in which repetition causes a word or phrase to temporarily lose meaning for the listener, who then perceives the speech as repeated meaningless sounds.


I wonder if this is the same thing when you see a word so often you question if you are even spelling it right.

GeorgeBailey

damn

[The Bulge]

oh thats a deadline. ill just sit where i am then and do a reread d2

[Radical Rat]

Please do not sit where you are

[Bingle]

not sure how this stance aligns with your readslist

Not sure why it should. The readslist is generally impressions of each individual player, the wagon analysis was what the game as a whole looks like to me. Basically in one I'm describing an elephant in profile and in the other I'm staring at it's ass. They both talk about the same thing, but they give different impressions.

I don't generally try to figure out a full solve until I'm a lot more confident on reads than I am atm. Is there anyone in particular you think I should have a different read on based on my thoughts on the gamestate?

[Invisibility]

unless i missed something - why are you offering reads on the people on your wagon? what is this?

Why would I not analyze the biggest wagon as literally the only person who knows for sure it's on town? What? Did you get into SG's acid, osuka?

that post is just sort of shit and it makes no sense to me. if your analysis of the biggest wagon on none other than yourself is “everyone’s town, they have good reasons, fucking rainbows and sunshine”, isn’t that just one step short of a scumclaim? you somehow simultaneously made yourself look worse, the wagon look better, and did all of that while inexplicably adding zero meaningful content other than the fact that you clearly don’t have good (or real?) reads on any of the people voting you

This is the post in question.

You say that my post sucks because... I think the four people on my wagon have shown reasonable progressions for being on my wagon.

You characterize that as "everyone's town, they have good reasons, fucking rainbows and sunshine" which is itself a gross misrep of y'know, actual reasons why none of the votes are particularly scummy to me. Then you say that thinking the votes on me aren't from scum is "one step short of a scumclaim.

What part of that isn't an implication that people scumreading you can't be town?

oh ok this were not my reasons. I didn't like the readslist cuz it felt too much like playing it safe and not really saying anything. This post makes me feel differently though like I think they were genuine (which scum can fake and I'm still not sure how to contend with that lol but whatevs)

[Invisibility]

(well not fake but like genuinely read for people but still it makes me feel better)

[Invisibility]

It makes sense for you not to remember but Meuh coming in with "yeah what" implies she doesn't remember either and I'm not sure why she would expect to remember something like that? It just reads as defensive

I was also in that game, and luckily enough I was ISOing Ausuka there when making the cyclical post to make sure I hadn't imagined Ausuka's 1v1 tendency and Ausuka's spiciest early 1v1 in that game was with... Skygazer, which doesn't really click with the idea of Skygazer WKing her :lol:

How did you know what game Skygazer was referring to?

Inference

Meuh, why would you infer that Sky is referring to the game you three were in together if she wasn't white knighting her in that game?

Because
1. I had already brought up this game multiple times so referencing it would make more sense than referring to another game
2. Scum Skygazer/town Ausuka is a specific enough scenario that it narrows down the possibility of it being a different game a lot
3. Skygazer was responding to me, so it'd make sense for him to refer to that game and to explicitly state if he wasn't
4. Pretty sure Skygazer only recently returned to the site and as such wouldn't have an extensive pool of recent games to have WKed Ausuka in
5. 507 very heavily implies that there isn't another game that I'm not aware of

I can't decide if this feels like too much explaining or not

I don't like Merlyn testing the waters here

Looking at the lead wagons, I'd rather lim Bingle than sheep. I guess. A Sheep lim would give so little info. But I hate lims that the best reason is 'we'll get a lot of info when you die!'

also don't like Merlyn seemingly setting herself up to vote

I also agree with 832 and 860
VOTE: Merlyn
Merlyn flashwagon can we do it?

[Ausuka]

I don't think anything meuh has said has really been objectionable and a lot of the same things she has said about me in this game, she also said in a past game as town which I've linked - I'm not sure why I should believe meuh doing something I've previously seen town meuh do is supposed to be scummy

Which things? The biggest issue I have with both of you is the giant opaque wall of mutual townread with little reasoning, and the people who are heavily incentivized to mutually defend like that are the scumteam. Point at specific things that make you townread meuh and help me see what it is you see. Tell me why it's reasonable that meuh went from "eh maybe ausuka scum" to "pushing ausuka is really scummy" with very little from you in the middle. Show me exactly what meuh has done here that would be difficult to replicate as scum. I don't give a shit if it's "Post 3 pinged me as gut town." just give something that isn't vague as shit.

I doubt the scumteams are actually mutually defending each other. And like... I've explained two things already, I thought what you were saying about Meuh was actually towny in the sense of responding to the questionable part of what Sky is saying rather than using it to talk about why she is town or whatever. I think stuff like "oh she said it wasn't an exaggeration but actually it WAS an exaggeration" is also the sort of thing that looks reasonable but hits scum <rand amount of the time; town are more likely to hit back hard in ways where holes can be poked in it. Scum hit back hard on pushes too but are more likely to hit on notes like "this is stupid" where it's more difficult to argue against.

Again, I've mentioned this game. I've not sure if you read it - I think it's relevant to your arguments against Meuh - but this makes her progression on me seem completely natural. In this post, she mentions the *one* game she played with me and compared it to the game she was currently playing, saying the reasoning for the wagon was terrible because of it.

4. Ausuka's response to the push reminds me a LOT to the early push on her in the dance game, where she was town. The intensity of it, the feelings around it, the counter-scumread on someone who was scumreading her...
Unless Ausuka is very good at replicating this set of feelings and reactions as scum (she might be, I've only played once with her and she was town), to me this just lines up very well with her town game and the general stance she held when a lot of people were questioning her and the lack of backing down felt right.

Here she is outright townreading me for being similar to her past experience, again as town. Given that she was right about my alignment in that game, I really have no reason to believe she wouldn't be feeling something similar here or even stronger.

This is exactly what I did the last game I played. Ausuka had a strong reaction to a push and I took advantage of this to further cast doubt on her because I knew it was reasonable to and I wouldn't catch too much backlash for it. I can see your approach here aligning with my own scumgame quite well and it makes me uneasy.

Again and again, you can find the same stuff.

She also got scrutiny for this, or at least 'townreading ausuka too hard' in that game; I think in this game as scum, she wouldn't push me, and might lightly defend me, but it's counterintuitive that she would go as hard as she has when it's more likely to just put her in a bad position and win over, like, me, who is not necessarily a power-player in mafia games a majority of the time

Finally in terms of stuff i *haven't* already mentioned, I think scum meuh did have a habit of being super Reasonable and stuff as i said and making these Big Long Posts Which People Townread. stuff like 572 just gives me town vibes in general but especially given prior experience with meuh. It's like, if meuh is scum I expect her to talk more about her bingle read here and make a post people will nod along to rather than being like "Meh i considered voting bingle but actually no I won't fuck you"

[Ausuka]

Re: merlyn, even if you don't think it's reasonable I think 'townreading someone when you think the wagon on them is bad' is a believable thought process. I also think her talking about what wagons she would vote with a day until the deadline is... A perfectly normal thing to do

606 is the only point I really understand as a decent reason to vote, but when I look at that meuh post, I kind of see why she would have that thought shrug

[Ausuka]

Datisi continues to be violently britphobic

Can we just lim datisi

[Bingle]

On the topic of Rat, because that is my only really nuanced read:

I think scum rat is a lot more careful in their play here. Rat jumped in on bringing cook to E-1 super early in a way that didn't feel like they were afraid of cook flipping before cook had done anything, and rat is someone I think from fairly extensive experience modding them would understand exactly how risky that was and exactly why there was so little to gain. Like, the rat I saw in triplicate doesn't just risk dumping a scumpartner without any attempt to check to see if they're town when dumping a scumpartner is such a bad idea. That rat also realizes A that dumping a scumpartner is a terrible plan and B that they would get basically no towncred from being early on a scumwagon because any remaining scum wouldn't have known they were on a scumwagon. It just doesn't jive with what I know of them as a player.

If I get hammered before I get back to the thread, seriously look at meuh's progression on me. She has been avoiding my wagon from the word go, supporting it from the sidelines and adding to its momentum, but she's noticeably never voting me. She's also done roughly fuckall in the sense of actually creating useful content.

Reciepts:

I like Bulge's case on Bingle but then I look at Bingle's ISO and it's like, hmm. Kind of just wanna leave that slot to sort for later

I'm still leaning Town on Bingle, it's just that he's the townlean I'm most willing to compromise on since it isn't a very strong lean, and it looks like a Town-driven wagon at least.

Feel similarly in the sense that the Bingle wagon is made a lot more appealing by the way it's been pushed and who's been pushing it, though I'm more ???? than townleaning

Alright:

First, wagon on me:

Ausuka - Primarily, voting me as OMGUS. I still think Ausuka isn't particularly towny, but generally her placement on my wagon isn't a really scummy one.
Firebringer - Voting me for a meta case (and a bad one). His case on me is that I'm not doing a thing that's NAI for me, I'm doing a thing that's NAI for me, and that I'm doing a thing that he claims isn't NAI for me based on a game he was the backup mod for, but which is notably NAI for me. I'm not really a player who can be caught via 'meta case'. Regardless, I believe that Firebringer believes the case, which makes him a fairly strong town read.
The Bulge - Apparently, the main thrust of Bulge's scum read on me was my leading question at Ausuka. I had thought there was a significant portion to do with the mech speak accusation, but on reread it does seem very reasonable that that callout was nonspecific and not actually aimed at me. Bulge's accusation that it's ridiculous I would think so is, imo, silly, since his clarification that it wasn't actually about mechspeak was directly quoting a post about people specifically calling me out for mechspeak. The implication there, to me, was that the 388 was in fact singling me out. I don't really think that is unreasonable. Of the people voting me, I think this is the worst vote, but I don't particularly think it makes Bulge scum.
Invisibility - Vizzy's mostly been sheeping bad cases on me, but the way the way she's doing it doesn't scream scum to me.


Of these 4 I think there is no way there's a pair of scum and that it's unlikely that there are two different scumteams represented. Generally, despite the shit quality of each of the reads, I think they are more likely than not to actually be things the people behind them think. I vaguely agree that the wagon on me is roughly town driven.

unless i missed something - why are you offering reads on the people on your wagon? what is this?

I'm pretty sure someone asked them to but I can't for the life of me find the post

[Ausuka]

VOTE: Skygazer

i'm shooting for the stars

[Bingle]

I've not sure if you read it

Real talk? I haven't. I haven't even clicked the link. I've been working long shifts and haven't had the time to do extra work for the game which is not really on you. I'm just doing what I can to make my opinions known in the time I have available.