Mini Normal 2322: Game Over

[Flavor Leaf]

I don’t sheep reads, i take others reads into consideration, and i may sheep votes for momentum purposes.

I think purple has absolutely no objective in their posts

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Based on people pushing Lap, there are three options:
1. He isn't scum
2. He is being heavily bussed
3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

He isn't scum with FL because FL wouldn't let a scum buddy basically VT claim and stay at E-2 without a real counterwagon

I am ignoring the possibility of him being scum with Hu Tao for now and will come back to it later

He is not scum with exactly Joyboy/cw because having vanity wagons on each other while your partner is the main wagon is the best way to lose as mafia and I get the feeling Joyboy at least has SOME level of competence in Mafia.

So barring Hu Tao partnership, we eliminate option 3.

On option 2 it's a lot quicker: is there anyone who is positioned to gain towncred from Lap flipping scum? Not really. I mean Kyo is probably not scum with Lap so would look good if he flips scum, but since she's not scum with him she isn't bussing.

So it's also not very likely scum are bussing (unless scum are just really bad).

Conclusion:
Either Lap is just town, or scum are really bad and are doing a stupid bus right now (in which case I feel fine letting Lap live a little longer since his buddies probably will be revealed through associations), or Lap is scum with Hu Tao + somebody else.

Since I currently TR Hu Tao and since I think she'd probably react differently to a wagon on buddy (either bus or hard defend), I'm fine with saying he is most likely not scum with Hu Tao, but this is not a hard no like with Flavor.

Suggestion:
Let's start a new wagon
VOTE: Abneg
(I was already voting Abneg, now voting for a different reason)

1. You forgot to put yourself in option 3 where Lap is not being bussed and his teammates are off-wagon
2. It's pretty bold of you to assume what scum!FL would do

1+2 = {Lap,DE70,FL?}

1. I am conftown in my own eyes. You are correct that objectively I could be in option 3,

but actually I'm being ruled out by option 2 because I was also scumreading Lap and poking him.

2. It's not, I know quite a bit about FL

I feel like option 2 (heavily bussing) does not describe your play. You put quotes to support it in this next post, but what you're giving me evidence of is that you're shading Lap but never voting there. Do you not see how that looks from an outside POV of someone that is scumreading Lap individually?

She sees me not consider myself possible scum and her first thought is to point it out as possibly damning as a partner with Lap.

If you want to towncase Lap convincingly you're going to have to do it from an outside POV if you want it to convince people outside your own town POV.

I can make cases as though I'm town, as scum, and they can make sense because I'm pretending to be town. If you don't build your case from an outside POV it's going to be less convincing. I am wary of you pushing this towncase as truth because it looks believable, but it relies on an unconfirmed assumption that you're town.

So people can read it and nod along and be like "yeah this all makes sense" and if they don't consider the basis of all the facts you're starting from, they can be misled by scum!you

That's true

When I was writing that case, I was including myself in the people who were "maybe bussing Lap but not positioned to gain anything from it"

I guess it's a bit hard to see from my posts because I have a bad habit to delete a lot of stuff in my pedits, but I definitely started to scumread him. Well actually it shouldn't be THAT hard to see, I have at least 2-3 posts where I say I don't like things by Lap:

Spoiler:

Getting more sus on Dragoneater. Despite having the most posts by a good 60% margin, their posts are proportionally low-content and fell back to the sheeping post from page 1 when Pav called out his weird vote pattern in 358. Their push for HPE feels legit though and not like a preemptive bus, so I'm feeling 1 scum between DE and HPE.

Don't love this thought tbh

Like it felt like a bad faith read in an attempt to present an alt wagon rather than a real read

Pointing out Lap scummy (=scumread)

I'm at E-2, no shit I'm in survival mode. The two leading votes are basically me vs you right now, and I know I'm town while you've been exuding scum vibes, so ofc I'm going to try to get people to vote smart instead of following ssmb's train tunnel to a mislim.

Then actually find and vote scum

Pressuring Lap slightly

What do you scumread Lap for?

Their posting seems to be trying to clutch at easy NAI things to see what sticks.

I'm on mobile so cant link to posts easily so will just put post numbers.

56 and 106 are what pinged me originally, 56 because it seemed to be trying to grasp onto the first substantial thing someone else pointed out, and it made me worry that the situation could possibly be that Pavowski is town, and the blame could then be pushed on me in the event Pavowski gained speed and actually flipped town.

While a few people did mention about a policy lim, this (106) in conjunction with 56 pinged me as weird.

228 with the "lazy contradictions" about DE70, was another NAI thing that I feel was jumped on as an easy reason to suspect someone, as it's something easy to explain away (they contradicted themselves!) Which reads weird to me.

The survival mode thing is also something that feels anti-town to me (an anyone but me attitude doesn't seem to make sense for town to do to me), but overall that's probably NAI, because I could see panicking town doing that sometimes tbh.

Even if Laplacious is scum, because of the speed of the wagon I do think there is at least 1 scum there.

Having read this and clicked all links, I think you are town

I could see Lap as scum but I have no idea what's the VC like

Saying I could see Lap as scum

All of the above are posts that would put me into category 2, not category 3.

(I can say that as long as I don't try to provide evidence, yes?)

Yeah, as long as you don't take a picture of the dice

I got laplacian, but if I'm not mistaken laplacian is On E-2 (?) so it's probably not such a good idea to vote for laplacian right now, maybe later
Anyway, I would prefer this out of the two because of that

Genuine question: when do you think would be a better time to vote?

Or rather let me be a newbie coach and say that you are expected to vote when playing in this site, and not only close to deadline.

The last two are me egging on another player to vote Lap. Pretty weird to do as Lap's partner.

There was no "maybe bussing but not positioned to gain anything" in that case - you mentioned I wasn't position to gain anything, but that's scenario 2 stuff. I'm talking about scenario 3, where you are a partner of Lap's who is not bussing him, along with one of the other people you listed there (off-wagoners)

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Laplacian voters as of 503: ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm

Assuming Laplacian scum it would be with 2 of these as partners:
Joyboy

Purplemango
DragonEater70

Hu Tao
Flavor Leaf
cw357

Thomith

bold=missing from 503

3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

Why were purplemango and thomith not listed in scenario 3?

[DragonEater70]

All of your points are technically correct Kyoko, but your basic assumption is still incorrect.

You have a worldview you have developed (which is incorrect) and instead of connecting the pieces of the puzzle correctly so that they show you the truth, you try to force them together so they reflect your worldview

I don't think anything I could say would change your worldview so I am not going to bother

FWIW - the big post where I was explaining why we shouldn't push Lap right now - that post wasn't for you, it was for people who were hedging or unsure. And I am pretty sure these people didn't need a proof from me why I am not scum with Lap in order for them to understand what I was trying to say.

[DragonEater70]

Laplacian voters as of 503: ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm

Assuming Laplacian scum it would be with 2 of these as partners:
Joyboy

Purplemango
DragonEater70

Hu Tao
Flavor Leaf
cw357

Thomith

bold=missing from 503

3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

Why were purplemango and thomith not listed in scenario 3?

I already explained why

[Flavor Leaf]

Laplacian voters as of 503: ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm

Assuming Laplacian scum it would be with 2 of these as partners:
Joyboy

Purplemango
DragonEater70

Hu Tao
Flavor Leaf
cw357

Thomith

bold=missing from 503

3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

Why were purplemango and thomith not listed in scenario 3?

In the chance that Lap is scum, they are scum with at least one of the people on that first list.

Not liking your deep deep assumptions. Seems very black and white, red and blue. Mafia is purple and gray.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kyouko def dropped down a peg with that post.

I don’t really see Dragon/Lap being aligned here.

I kinda get Dragon/FL or FL/Lap, but like, I still think both of those are incredibly surface level and feel like narrative building rather than a genuine read.

Didn't notice this - could you explain? I think it looks like (bad) distancing between them, I think I've quoted examples already in my really long post about DE with a lot of spoilers within.

I'm most confident in Laplacian being scum. By association, I can see DE as well, but the longer I talk to DE the more I see scum!DE independent of Laplacian. You, I'm seeing as scum by an even further extension of the association from DE to you. I'm least confident in you here.

Think of that game on survivor where they tie all the sticks together with twine so they can reach through the gate and grab the key. Laplacian is the stick in my hand, DE is tied to the end of it, and you're tied to DE's stick, maybe about to fall off. Get me?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Laplacian voters as of 503: ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm

Assuming Laplacian scum it would be with 2 of these as partners:
Joyboy

Purplemango
DragonEater70

Hu Tao
Flavor Leaf
cw357

Thomith

bold=missing from 503

3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

Why were purplemango and thomith not listed in scenario 3?

In the chance that Lap is scum, they are scum with at least one of the people on that first list.

Not liking your deep deep assumptions. Seems very black and white, red and blue. Mafia is purple and gray.

I'm speaking in the context of DE's scenario 3 in 503. I think 503 is deeply flawed and am working to get to the bottom of that. I don't think that if we flip scum!Lap that there are no scum on his wagon right now. I'm trying to figure out how DE got to where he did because the basis seems all wrong. I'm not sure if it's wrong intentionally or by oversight.

[Laplacian]

Laplacian voters as of 503: ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm

Assuming Laplacian scum it would be with 2 of these as partners:
Joyboy

Purplemango
DragonEater70

Hu Tao
Flavor Leaf
cw357

Thomith

bold=missing from 503

3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

Why were purplemango and thomith not listed in scenario 3?

Ironically, I already pointed out that the list of my hypothetical coconspirators was missing a few people. Plus I think that assumption that if I was scum, voters are safe is wrong. I'd assume 1 scum on a bus 1 off

[Flavor Leaf]

Kinda feel like a flip

I think i heard it somewhere, did Lap claim vanilla?

[Flavor Leaf]

Are we E-2 still?

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Laplacian voters as of 503: ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm

Assuming Laplacian scum it would be with 2 of these as partners:
Joyboy

Purplemango
DragonEater70

Hu Tao
Flavor Leaf
cw357

Thomith

bold=missing from 503

3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

Why were purplemango and thomith not listed in scenario 3?

I already explained why

You explained Thomith but not purple - and Thomith is in the same boat as you - shading Lap but not voting him.

[ssbm_Kyouko]

yes and yes

[ssbm_Kyouko]

Kinda feel like a flip

I think i heard it somewhere, did Lap claim vanilla?

Are we E-2 still?

yes and yes*

[Laplacian]

Yep, E-2 now, claimed when I hit E-3 since it looked like there was momentum.

[DragonEater70]

Laplacian voters as of 503: ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm

Assuming Laplacian scum it would be with 2 of these as partners:
Joyboy

Purplemango
DragonEater70

Hu Tao
Flavor Leaf
cw357

Thomith

bold=missing from 503

3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

Why were purplemango and thomith not listed in scenario 3?

In the chance that Lap is scum, they are scum with at least one of the people on that first list.

Not liking your deep deep assumptions. Seems very black and white, red and blue. Mafia is purple and gray.

I'm speaking in the context of DE's scenario 3 in 503. I think 503 is deeply flawed and am working to get to the bottom of that. I don't think that if we flip scum!Lap that there are no scum on his wagon right now. I'm trying to figure out how DE got to where he did because the basis seems all wrong. I'm not sure if it's wrong intentionally or by oversight.

This is stupid

Not everyone is a perfectionist like yourself and the fact that you disagree with a person not providing proof why they aren't scum doesn't make that person scum. "getting to the bottom of this" is not going to give you anything AI, just frustration.

I simply can't be bothered with towncasing myself and refuting your quotes when you are the only person even remotely scumreading me (except Lap, ironically enough, but even he doesn't try to vote me).

[DragonEater70]

I kinda want to vote Lap and have him flip town just so Kyouko drops this stupid fucking issue

[ssbm_Kyouko]

do it

[Flavor Leaf]

Yeah, I’m cool with a Vanilla flip today at worst case scenario.

I was gonna offer CW up because I don’t think i saw the vanilla claim, but remember a reference to it.

Yeah, Lap, I don’t think you necessarily flip scum, but I’m ready to move on, and you’re vanilla.

Sorry if you’re town, but i think your flip leads to scum if you are town.

[DragonEater70]

Laplacian voters as of 503: ssbm_kyouko, Abnegation, Pavowski, HighPrincessErinys, geraintm

Assuming Laplacian scum it would be with 2 of these as partners:
Joyboy

Purplemango
DragonEater70

Hu Tao
Flavor Leaf
cw357

Thomith

bold=missing from 503

3. He is scum with exactly two of joyboy/cw/Hu Tao/FL

Why were purplemango and thomith not listed in scenario 3?

I already explained why

You explained Thomith but not purple - and Thomith is in the same boat as you - shading Lap but not voting him.

To me, all three of us are in the same boat of "I want to vote Lap but he's at E-2 and I don't want to pressure more than that".

All the people in this boat are in my mind equivalent to voting Lap in the context of 503. Why? Because all three of us would have voted Lap if he was at E-3 instead.

Does that make you feel better?

[Flavor Leaf]

Vote Lap, Dragon

[cw357]

VOTE: CW
THIS MEAT IS TERRIBLE! HEALTHY BUT TERRIBLE!
LETS GET IT OUT OF HERE SO WE CAN GET TO THE GOOD MEAT TOMORROW

people who actively try to pl are auto-impostor
VOTE: Joyboy

I actually agree with this. Policy elims are terrible

DONT POCKET ME

Glad cw is back and toning down the memes. However, they pop back in within 30 minutes of Kyouko saying cw had valid thoughts. Could just be good timing, but I'm also thinking scum chat coaching. Like, "tone it down before you get policied, go contribute next time you're mentioned"

the site mods threatened to ban me
dont worry ill still have some amogus sussy fun-time
but yes i have to tone it down

Getting more sus on Dragoneater. Despite having the most posts by a good 60% margin, their posts are proportionally low-content and fell back to the sheeping post from page 1 when Pav called out his weird vote pattern in 358. Their push for HPE feels legit though and not like a preemptive bus, so I'm feeling 1 scum between DE and HPE.

Don't love this thought tbh

Not trying to bandwagon, but IMO best scum-tell in long-cycle games is spreading your interactions thin (so no interaction reads) while having few AI communications and real push attempts, at least early on. Freaking out about some RVS read pings heavy here on DE UNVOTE: I support either Joyboy or DE hang, tbh Laplacian wagon feels liek a toneread to me and I don't like it so if either of Joyboy or DE is going to win I'm on that wagon.

Like it felt like a bad faith read in an attempt to present an alt wagon rather than a real read

grasping at straws

I'm at E-2, no shit I'm in survival mode. The two leading votes are basically me vs you right now, and I know I'm town while you've been exuding scum vibes, so ofc I'm going to try to get people to vote smart instead of following ssmb's train tunnel to a mislim.

Then actually find and vote scum

I don't see how town says this
picture situation:

we want to eject the impostor
but we pick a crewmate
crewmate says "no this other guy sus"
I think lap is recognizing the reality of the situation (two wagons competing) whereas DE is using some real terrible reasoning to try and paint NAI stuff as scummy, don't like it

It’s interesting, because that’s one of the things that make me want to stay on HPE for a bit longer.

Explain so I can (finally!) sheep you?

Prior to Thomith’s last post, I felt like it was a possible out to stay on their track.

It’s early Day 1, why is HPE shutting further pressure down in that way?

In addition, they also seemed to scumread Joyboy earlier. It feels like they were trying to not spread too thin.

I’m not sure it’s a correct reason, but it’s what i felt as soon as it started.

I'll be honest I'm not fully tracking with the Joyboy thing, but the Thomith thing makes sense
VOTE: HPE

Want to reiterate that I can see a DE/HPE/Joyboy scumteam where DE busses a Thomith/HPE theoretical scumteam, then acts like HPE is clear when Thomith flips town.

I'm not getting on laplacian wagon so dont bother trying to get me to.

[DragonEater70]

do it

Nah

I hate intentionally flipping town Day 1

That's Flavor's style

If he asks me to hammer I'll hammer though

Pedit: huh okay that was quick

Yes mr Flavor

VOTE: Lap

[Laplacian]

VOTE: Joyboy

No reason, but not opposed

She sees me not consider myself possible scum and her first thought is to point it out as possibly damning as a partner with Lap.

If you want to towncase Lap convincingly you're going to have to do it from an outside POV if you want it to convince people outside your own town POV.

I can make cases as though I'm town, as scum, and they can make sense because I'm pretending to be town. If you don't build your case from an outside POV it's going to be less convincing. I am wary of you pushing this towncase as truth because it looks believable, but it relies on an unconfirmed assumption that you're town.

And all of your arguments are also from the a priori assumption that I'm scum. You can't complain about their lack of neutrality when you can't zoom out either.

You are STILL tunneled.

I have yet to receive any indication I'm wrong though, and I

am

looking

I think DE/Lap/FL is a lazy read pairing.

Lazy and bold to say that maf are all people with bigger post counts instead of lurking in the <20 crew of joyboy, gera, and abnegation


fake edit: And ofc a ton more discussion appeared as I was going over the last few pages. Posting anyway

[cw357]

laplacian elim is idiotic and i hate it tbh
there's got to be scum on the wagon