Mini 2321: Classic Commercials (Postgame)

[Celebloki]

Hi, I'd pull a, "I’m not reading anything from before I repped in." like RCE, but the fact that I saw that post probably contradicts that ploy.

[Celebloki]

I'm caught up, but still ruminating on the game. I'm not inclined to join the FL wagon, I think Vanillas are just the flavor that will win this game.

I'm still trying to figure out my own meta read on gob. I've been in a couple completed games with him on either alignment so far, but am largely still confused by him. One thing that stuck out to me about him in Large 245 where he was scum was that he regularly appeared to say things that showed he had not really read the game. He pushed slots that had been confirmed by known PRs. After the game it became clear he was doing this sort of thing on purpose. I see that side of him a little bit here saying FL called himself scum then conf town even though from what I saw, FL said neither of those things. In town games with him, he doesn't seem to be as obviously oblivious? He also seems to like to call people town to look for reactions. I think I only have one completed town game with him though and I replaced out of it so this is not a solid read. I could maybe pursue that wagon, but I'd need to meta research a bit more on him.

I seem to always scum read Hu Tao, so maybe this game I'll try to start at null and try not to be biased.

That's all for now, I need to stop avoiding work for a bit. Maybe be back later this afternoon.

[Celebloki]

What is slanking?

[Celebloki]

It sucks not having an extensive library of personal meta on everyone. I have like half filled in meta. My best meta read for Kyouko is that she isn't playing like I've seen her in town games I've completed with her. I couldn't say what she looks like as scum. I do notice a significantly quieter energy from her in this game though. Less solvy, more snipey.

[Celebloki]

Do we 'Bloop' here?

[Celebloki]

I try. My mafia play involves a lot of reading and re-reading and looking at people or groups of people in ISO, then thinking for way too long about it. Then I post and get shaded for being a lurker lol. I've been attempting to be a little more reactive but I am having a low energy day today.

[Celebloki]

FL's posts are giving me whiplash.

I'm not so willing to let Kyouko off the hook. I've been looking at some of her other games, including some old scum ones, and the Kyouko here is just very different from her town play. I think she's good wagon material.

VOTE: Kyouko

I'm also looking more closely at gob and think I am more comfortable in calling his play scummy here. It was really hard to actually find a town game of his, he rolls scum a lot. Like a lot a lot. Funnily enough Kyoko's gob towntell doesn't pan out, I found instances in scum games of him saying he can't remember things. His scum play is making a lot of posts calling people scum or wolves and one liner reactionary posts. A lot like in this game. I did eventually find a town game of his where he wasn't a hydra that was from a long time ago and he was actually solving.

I can see there being some partner equity between those slots as well.

Maybe I'm getting confirmation bias, but pressure doesn't hurt. I've been reading others as well, but this game has a lot of fluff posting in it. Basically everyone else save for a few I have sitting around Null. Slightly bigger town pings from Wiz, Thomith. They actually have good content in their posts. I've been burned by some severe scum!FL pocketing/town control in a past game so for today he's also getting left at null until I can more confidently sort what he's doing.

[Celebloki]

I'm just waiting for the supposed FL/Bingle sparks to fly that I keep hearing about.

[Celebloki]

There's the Kyouko effort I was expecting to see from town her. I find myself wondering if scum would put in effort to meta dive for LAMISTy reasons or if in general they wouldn't bother. My experience so far with town!Kyouko is that she is very solvy, likes to talk mechanics and start posting statistics. I hadn't seen much of that here yet, but we also have a closed setup so she's missing the info. She's still in dubious territory for me.

I've learned that I really don't know what town Hu Tao looks like. From my best personal experience she seems to play very anti-town when she is town(Smuggler's Port comes to mind). At least that what it feels like. I have scum read her play in other games and now wonder if it's just a playstyle difference that pings me.

Naerys claims she's never rolled scum and based on completed games that's true. She seems really no different here. I wouldn't put it past her to shock everyone and solidly maintain her meta as scum, but without any evidence to the contrary she seems like normal town her.

This is an odd game for me. There are a lot of people here that I have played with in other games that I got wrong, or I seem to regularly tunnel and I am having guilt over being inclined to start tunneling them again. I want to let certain people cook and have been avoiding trying to case them (Hu Tao/gob). I also tunneled Cakez in Guns & Roses and was wrong, he seems similar here which makes me want to TR him.

Dunn hasn't posted much, but I'm getting similar vibes to his scum game in Guns & Roses. Just pings so far.

I feel like FL's play is coming from a town place right now. I don't claim to know his meta, but the bouncing around doesn't seem like a good scum strategy.

Then this defaults me to looking at the rest and I have a habit of scum reading lurkers. Which is ironic because I'm a low posting lurker most of the time.

@Mod: V/LA Dec 15th through Dec 17th.

Will likely still stay updated on my phone and keep an eye on the game and maybe do some light posting, but I will be away from home and with family until Sunday night.

[Celebloki]

lol, surprise pagetop wall post.

[Celebloki]

I'm gonna be controversial and say I'm town reading Hu Tao. I'm in my new Hu Tao is town arc. It'll be just my luck that this is finally the game she's scum though.

Upon re-read with the knowledge of flips, I wonder if someone was trying to make Wiz look bad with the Kyouko NK since they were kinda at odds.

I'm also Scum reading Dunn and maybe Roden. I can kinda see scum!Dunn wanting to NK Kyouko. The roden read is just vibes at the moment.

I'm still re-reading, back up to page 16. Might post after getting further but this is where I'm at.

[Celebloki]

Pagetop?

VOTE: Dunn

I'm down for more pressure here.

[Celebloki]

I think there's a triangle between you, wiz, and Kyouko. We now know what Kyouko is and I am town reading Wiz. You were generally sheeping Kyouko's push on Wiz and have been at odds with Wiz. Kyouko seemed to have lost her scum read on him and turned around to town read him when she was being pushed. I could see a world where scum!you might consider NKing Kyouko to make wiz look bad.

In short, in the 3 of you I feel like there has to be scum and it's most likely you.

[Celebloki]

So.... What's up, folks? Anyone eat any good food recently?

[Celebloki]

I wasn't great at explaining my line of reasoning. Really the short of it was that there was an odd trio there, with Kyouko's flip that leaves you and Wiz as T/S in my eyes. I just TR Wiz way more than you so want to push there. The rest of the game is pretty dead. I'll do a current vibe list. The groups them selves are in no particular order, just groupings of similar towniness/scumminess.

Town

Hu Tao
Wiz

Thom
Naerys

FL
Bingle
RCE
Cakez

Roden
Dunn

Scum

The Yellow tier is the odd null group for me. There's similar buddying and theater within this but I can't figure out who the wolves could be. Cakez might belong in the group below, I haven't really fully decided yet.

[Celebloki]

Wait, I think I understand what you’re saying—that the play benefits me so much that you think I wouldn’t actually do it, and that someone (Dunn) is probably framing me?

Or am I holding the idiot ball again?

This is basically what I was getting at.

[Celebloki]

I'll be real, my town read of Hu Tao is mostly hinging on one game that ended recently where she was town and I hard tunneled her for what now I can only describe as playstyle differences. I thought she was clearly scum and found a lot of her behavior to be anti-town. Turns out she was town and I guess she just plays that way. I see similarities to that here and I felt I needed to look at her differently and not let myself get back into that tunnel. Like I said in a previous post, I'm in my Hu Tao town arc and at least for D2 am going to blindly TR her.

My Wiz and Thom reads are sheeps of Kyouko. I find her to generally have good reads (-gob, he's an odd duck to read). I do find Wiz towny outside of that though. He seems to be providing good content.

I don't see Naerys being any different here to any other game I've been in with her. She has an odd posting style as well, but I've only ever played with her as town. Until I can see a confirmed scum game of hers I can't really interpret her style here any differently and I don't see any independently scummy posts from here this game.

The Yellow and Red sections are basically everyone else that I either have a harder time reading, or have been at odds with those that I TR.

[Celebloki]

Why's your read on Roden so low?

My read list could probably have used another category between the yellow and orange section. Dunn in a category at the bottom on his own as my only real scum read, then one above with Cakez and Roden as more of a null scum section. The Yellow section is really just my null section. My Roden read is more of a hindsight read after gob's flip. gob didn't do himself any favors, but some of Roden's pushes on the gob wagon could be construed as a bit TMI'ey or in bad faith. Same argument that was used for Dunn by you in 835 for hammering gob after the fake Doc claim could be made on Roden for trying to swat down the doc claim in Roden's 806 or 813 so that his wagon wouldn't get derailed. I think this argument on Roden

is

a bit of a stretch, but I'm not ready to run a case or hard push on Roden over it atp. He's just further down in my suspicion list.

[Celebloki]

Hey, if wagoning me is what brings some spice back into this game, let's do it! This games gotten real bland. I'm not gonna vote for myself though, that's kinda cringe.

[Celebloki]

I've posted my thoughts as they stand right now, but a whole lotta nothing has been happening and I'm not going to re-read the game again for the 5th time and try and come up with something else right now.

I'm pretty dead set on Dunn for now and no one else is doing anything. I'm sorry he's not an exciting wagon. I'm kind of checking out hard on this game and posted the above mostly out of bored frustration.

[Celebloki]

Hey, if wagoning me is what brings some spice back into this game, let's do it! This games gotten real bland. I'm not gonna vote for myself though, that's kinda cringe.

Are you expecting to live?

Not necessarily, if sending me out is what finally breathes life and gets town scum hunting then lets do it. Maybe my departure will be more beneficial to town then my sticking around.

[Celebloki]

I think it feels slow to me because this is my only active game at the moment and I've been sitting here refreshing it all day waiting for something to respond to. I'm kinda done rehashing what's already happened and want some hot new takes to respond to. The hot new take was a wagon on me, so I'm just sayin let's go for it. I sure have been playing weird, what's up with the fact that I've given no real reads on FL, Bingle, or RCE? Why did I never join the gob wagon yesterday? Did I have TMI? Why am I pushing Dunn and trusting Wiz and Thom so much, what's up with that? I keep rating Cakez low in reads list but have never said why.

Naerys is saying she doesn't like my posts, put your money where your mouth is and vote me.

[Celebloki]

Anyways, I'm gonna be away for a bit making dinner. Making matzo ball soup. Be back later.

[Celebloki]

Aww man, nothing happened while I was gone. The soup was good. I'm fine with the people voting me, more people should vote me.

I just love all the people coming around saying, "We have 37 days left, lets take it slow" then they leave. Before you know it, everyone will be in here panic-wagoning everyone under the sun 6 hours before deadline because everyone procrastinated.

[Celebloki]

the fact that the Celebloki is Thomith, FL, Naerys, and Dunnstral wagon starts to pick up steam again is a really good sign of CeleblokiScum.

I don't understand what you're saying here. My wagon is causing the Dunn wagon to pick up steam?

[Celebloki]

Then vote me out to break up some of those misconceptions. See my flip and maybe let the game start progressing instead of flaccidly plodding along. Pay attention to who let me egg them onto my wagon and who avoided it with a ten foot pole.

At this point I do think FL is probably scum. I think Thomith is confused about what I going on about and Naerys let me egg her onto my wagon. Maybe Bingle is town.

idk why people think I'm panicking, I'm pushing my own wagon since it's the only one people seem to care about. I'm not trying to get people off of it lol. I don't consider what I'm doing as throwing btw. I'm pulling a D1 FL that my flip will maybe galvanize the game to start moving forward.

[Celebloki]

Maybe FL, Dunn, Roden is a good solve. Bingle or RC could be in there swapping one of the others out. There's definitely scum somewhere in those 5. Probably 2.

[Celebloki]

idk what your talking about, it's a truly masterful play /s. My whole goal here is to get people talking and out of the background. If scum want my wagon to succeed they either need to hop on it or try to push more townies onto it.

[Celebloki]

You're making a lot of sense. I can be behind moving off you onto RC or Cakez. I'm still inclined on giving Hu a pass for today because she plays like this as town anyway.

I'm actually more interested in flip flopping on Naerys. I've also been giving her a pass because I felt like she normally also plays in the background like this, but her last post pinged me. She's responding to my hyperbolic

Spoiler:

Aww man, nothing happened while I was gone. The soup was good. I'm fine with the people voting me, more people should vote me.

I just love all the people coming around saying, "We have 37 days left, lets take it slow" then they leave. Before you know it, everyone will be in here panic-wagoning everyone under the sun 6 hours before deadline because everyone procrastinated.

My criticism in the above was mostly aimed at posts like she makes:

How about slowing down a bit? E-2 when we have like 8 days left?

Comes in and criticizes wagons without adding anything, says to slow down, then disappears again. I've been in too many games recently where the town lukewarmly plods along saying things like this, then we get to deadline and everyone's panicking pushing claims before settling on a mislim.

We have over 6 days left and Cele whimpers something about panic wagoning. Kindly stop trying to make ppl panic, when there is plenty of time left and we have solid targets of suspiction. It feels kinda scummy

Funnily enough she comes into to say the thing I'm criticizing her about. I wasn't panic wagoning in my post, I was saying people like her need to get more active and not lead us into a panic wagon at deadline. Why does everyone seem to want to coast through the Day phase saying to slow down, but then never actually come in and advance anything.

VOTE: Naerys

[Celebloki]

I'm not saying people should have come in and finished your wagon with the last votes on it, but at least come in and defend it, push it, analyze people on it, something. Not complacently say we have time to slack off and do nothing.

[Celebloki]

I'm choosing to trust Kyouko's reads on them for today. I am kind of following a moving reads strategy, day by day, for this game so I don't get sidetracked or try to track too many moving parts. I'm kind of operating off a D2 town read on Wiz, Thom, and Hu right now and choosing to look outside of them. If I'm still around tomorrow, I'll probably adjust that window and choose different people to mostly ignore based on flips and how voting went.

[Celebloki]

I also got really, REALLY, bored with this game yesterday and decided to start playing more unhinged and try to get reactions out of people. I'm still figuring out how this is working out for me. If you guys do vote me off, I almost suspect the people off my wagon look worse. With the way I've been playing I think scum would want to avoid my wagon rather that get behind it.

[Celebloki]

Well you put me at E-1, so I figure I should get my thoughts off my chest before someone comes along and hammers me.

[Celebloki]

I guess I'm just off this game. I tend to prefer to respond more conversationally and I honestly had a really hard time reading what anyone was doing D1.

When D2 looked like it was going to limp along, I got restless and wanted to try and spice the game up. I'm blindly trusting them for D2 only, I might flip on them tomorrow.

I legitimately town read Wiz and Thom off D1 play more than anyone else, I wasn't lying when I said everyone else was largely null to me. I liked their effort on their reads lists and questions. After seeing Kyouko's flip, that validated those reads a bit more for me for at least D2.

Hu Tao I am giving another day because like I said previously, I recently finished a couple games with her where I tunneled her for behavior like she's displaying in this game. She ended up being town and we lost the game we were in. As much of a shade as it seems to be, she plays anti-town as town and I am gun shy to do that again.

[Celebloki]

I always tell myself when I roll PRs, I'm gonna refuse to claim them but I never do. I'm just gonna full claim it and my target.

I'm a Town Neapolitan. My N1 was a waste because I targeted Kyouko. Interestingly I got a 'No Result' response. I assume because she died.

[Celebloki]

I softed in my second post if anyone cares about that.

[Celebloki]

Thought he might get NKed.

[Celebloki]

I wanted to checked mildly lower profile people I was town reading and slowly build a town core. Drop crumbs each day start in my opening posts to say who I town read after sleeping on it or something

[Celebloki]

Why would I say I got a No Result on kyouko if I was lying about my claim though. I could just as easily say I got VT on her. I honestly didn't feel like my crumb was very well hidden and I regretted crumbing it. My best guess is scum have a roleblocker and saw my crumb and used it on me. Might as well flip me, they'll just keep role blocking me so I get no information.

[Celebloki]

FL, I think you're misinterpreting what I mean by low-profile. My plan when I saw the role was to find people I would be comfortable accepting reads from, people I could sheep if I got unsure or confused. You're a wild card and change your mind on a dime. You try gambits and go all over the place. Had I confirmed you and tried to sheep you all over the place that'd look pretty terrible on me. I also wasn't convinced by your D1 VT claim and could see it being a gambit. I thought about confirming it, but ultimately wanted to go for someone less chaotic.

Then of course I could have targeted you and got back not a VT. Doesn't mean your scum, but now I don't know how to handle you. Can't out you in case you were a town PR. Can't trust you either.

My experience so far with Kyouko shows her to be analytical and methodical. I wanted to have her reads and analyzing posts in my back pocket and KNOW that she is town. There's a difference having a strong TR on her and knowing she is conf town. That I could accept her reads as purely townie. I honestly didn't think she's be a NK target.

I may have targeted you eventually, but I wanted to get a core of trusted, stable reads I could refer to.

I should also say I didn't want to check people like Hu Tao or Naerys because they don't post off and can be cryptic about how they form reads. I wanted to confirm people I could actually read analysis from.

Maybe I approached playing neap wrong, but that's the way I wanted to go.

[Celebloki]

RC has been playing a very neutral game in general. Mostly just coming in and sheeping the hell out of FL.

[Celebloki]

I'll tell you one thing, I'm never gonna try and play differently to get a boring game exciting again. I'll just stick to the low volume posts that I'm used to.

[Celebloki]

I honestly get lost whenever there's extensive mech talk in any game. I'm not an expert by any means on what proper balance is, so I couldn't offer much with regards to Wiz's claim.

Even though the setup spec, and "let it work itself out at night" is being argued to keep me alive, I tend to agree with FL's sentiment that that sort of thing typically annoys me in games.

All that said, I'd obviously prefer not to be faded.

I still have a desire to give Hu Tao a TR, after my claim and her hard defending me I was curious where that came from. When Dunn made his argument about how roleblockers and JKs work, I started to wonder if Hu Tao's hard defense might mean she was a JK and had maybe targeted me so she understood my 'no result'. With Wiz's claim this is obviously not a thing. I had decided before Wiz's claim that I still didn't support a lim on her because I wasn't sure if she might be a town JK. But the vanilla claim makes me not as reluctant to that.

I'm still not really sure how to read my other defenders or rather "let's leave Celeb alive for another day"-ers. I could see this being strategy for those with TMI, but I obviously have greedy reasons to side with those that argue to keep me alive. I do think Cakez has the weakest arguments of my defenders. I think FL's arguments for my lim make him fairly obv town.

[Celebloki]

I was saying I'm curious what her motivation was/is for defending my claim and result so much. There was a lot of discussion around how that isn't a valid result according to wiki articles for Neap or Roleblocker, but apparently is for JK for what Dunn was saying. One rationale I had for why Hu was so believing was maybe she was the JK that had targeted me, so she understood my result. Because of this I was more unsure if she was the lim for today in case she was town JK, but after Wiz's claim I am less worried about that. Hu Tao also seemed to implicitly confirm that she is vanilla based on Wiz's claim, she at least didn't attempt to dispute it.

What I was saying in 1431 is that now I can come around on a lim of her for today knowing she is vanilla at least.

I'm not sure I believe she slipped, but maybe her defending of me could be construed as TMI if a buddy of hers roleblocked me and she knew about it. It still begs the question of why she was so willing to believe me off the bat when no one else was.

[Celebloki]

So basically you don’t actually think she had more information, but we’re hesitant to eliminate her in case she did have extra information?

Do you think you were a likely target for a town jk? Why?

I'm not sure. Before Dunn mentioned JK, I was more sure I was roleblocked by scum. When I repped in and was making my initial posts, I was fighting with whether I should crumb or not, when I made my second post I was worried I was a little too obvious. My initial assumption was that a scum roleblocker saw my crumb and went for me based on that. I assume a town JK seeing my crumb would obviously choose not to go for me. I suppose my reluctance to go for her if I felt she was a town JK may have been misguided, it was born out of a desire not to out or lim another town PR.

I'm trying to think now what the motivation for either a scum JK/RB or town JK would be for openly defending my claim. Scum motivation here is obviously to try and earn town points when I flip town, but the risk is being accused of having TMI. I almost assume a town JK would want to stay hidden and not out themselves by defending their target thinking about it now...

[Celebloki]

Sorry for invoking a prod, I've been here, I just have no idea where we are even at with this game anymore.

It doesn't even seem like there is even a concerted push in any direction. I think the pervailing wagons are Bingle and Hu Tao, but each only have 2 votes.

I could be coming around on being willing to give my my 'courtesy' town read of Hu Tao I've been carrying if only because I really don't know who else I find to be especially scummy. I always find Hu Tao scummy, but wanted to give her the benefit of the doubt for once instead of tunneling.

I think Dunn has moved out of being scummy for me. Wiz gets a pass for the same reason I hope I'd get a pass for the day. I TR Thom and FL.

The game recently just appears to be Bingle and Hu Tao sniping at each other. I think in that pair I'd rather vote Hu Tao.

[Celebloki]

So who can we actually get consensus on, cause it seems like there is no one really in common with everyone.

I think I could be behind a vote in Bingle, Hu Tao, Cakez, or RCE. I think Bingle or Hu Tao (maybe Cakez) gives the most information. RCE has a good chance of being scum but hasn't given anything to do any association analysis with.

[Celebloki]

@Mod: I'll Be V/LA Until Monday, Jan 1st. I should still be able to get some access late in the evening PST, but it will be sparse.

I'll be here around deadline.

[Celebloki]

VOTE: Cakez

I think this is E-1?

[Celebloki]

I checked FL. He IS a VT.

[Celebloki]

I assume Wiz was killed because he could have cleared me if town believed his claim, he was claiming to target me last night. Killing him keeps me unclear and a possible target for wagons going forward. Scum were probably hoping to keep me a viable wagon target. I assume they are banking on the town not believing me.

[Celebloki]

Yeah, I was considering somewhere in {FL, Bingle, Hu Tao} for my target. In a similar vein to my Kyouko target D1, I ultimately decided FL for semi-selfish reasons. I wanted to clear him in my own book so I could trust his analysis. In my limited experience so far with him and in general what I've heard of his reputation, I still wasn't certain he was actually town yesterday. I feel he risks and succeeds at crazy gambits.

Only I can fully trust my clear on him since my slot isn't confirmed, but at least going forward I know his posts are coming from town and not some other strategy.

[Celebloki]

I’ve yet to play a game with a very active RCE. My only other game with him he was similarly aloof and lurky. Turned out to be scum. It’s not much to go on, but I could be behind a lim on his slot. Elements didn’t really take it anywhere.

[Celebloki]

I think my preferred fades today are between RCE/Elements and Roden. I think RCE/Elements is a really safe bet at that. I think there's still something about Dunn that irks me from his associations with Wiz and Kyouko in the early game. Hu Tao has good goon potential. I think I place Naerys and Bingle at the end of the list. I'm obviously not interested in going after Thomith or especially FL.

I need to find some time to read back some people. I recently had to take a step back from Mafia as start of year looks like it's going to be stupid busy for me. I'm hoping to try and get some actual analysis in and not just go off gut reads.

[Celebloki]

Why would a Juggernaut exist in a setup that would get it guilty'd by two different town PRs?

Neap + Rolecop + Jailkeeper vs Juggernaut + 2 goons feels like a really bad set up and has no real cohesion

Also wanted to respond to this, a Neap wouldn't guilty a juggernaut, it would just out that it's not a VT. Could still be a town PR with no other info.

[Celebloki]

What do you think about Roden's claim though?

[Celebloki]

If you believe Town has a Neap, RC, and JK though, does also having a 1-shot BP make sense for town? If anything he's now setup for the case that if I check him and get a negative, he's at least not lied. Any goons that claimed VT are now sweating that I can catch them in a lie.

[Celebloki]

Or rather, it's not that he didn't lie, but I can't catch his claim out.

[Celebloki]

I would agree that why add a scum 1-shot BP if town has no way to take a shot at the scum 1-shot BP. That said, in this setup, an RC finding a BP is essentially a town clear.

[Celebloki]

Yeah, to clarify my point, I'm agreeing that the 1-shot BP is a convenient claim that is likely a lie. I suspect he is the liar in the PR claims and doubt town has all 4 of the claimed PRs as they stand.

For the setup theorist nerds, what is the balance likelihood that Thom could be a Scum JK/RB?

[Celebloki]

I'm honestly not sure what the motivation would be for that claim. I'm generally surprised counter claiming isn't something I've seen more often. From the games I've been in so far I've never actually seen someone attempt to go head to head in a true counter claim.

At this point, from a balance standpoint (I know very little about what a balanced setup looks like mind you) I just don't think town can have all 4 of those roles. I'm just trying to decide which of you or Thom is more likely to be lying. As the game has gone on, I've just town read Thom more than you.

Considering it's dangerous for the scum that have made VT claims, I'm surprised there weren't more PR fake claims to make my job harder since I can't confirm them, just that they aren't VTs. It would seem to me to have been a better strategy for all the scum players to fake claim PRs or at least one of them to CC me and get me out before I could find out otherwise.

[Celebloki]

Thom, I do believe that you're a town JK, I was mainly playing devil's advocate with those posts and just trying to get a sanity check about whether or not I should be taking your claim as fact.

Roden, I did answer your question. I said I don't know why you would make that claim. How am I supposed to know what you were thinking when you made that claim. I'm not going to justify for you why it was a good or bad claim.

[Celebloki]

Where I'm at right now is that I obviously locktown FL, I cleared him. I am placing Thom in a similar slot just shy of locktown, maybe a slight bit of paranoia still about him.

Dunn and Bingle are kind of equivalent in that I am not sure where I stand with them, but I probably more town lean them.

Naerys and Hu Tao are maybe just behind them, slightly more confused on how to read them.

And my preferred lim pool is between Elements and Roden. I'm pretty sure this is 2/3 of the scumteam.

[Celebloki]

I don't need to be able to explain why you would fake claim BP. How does that even make sense. The case from my point of view is just PoE. If I am believing Thom, I'm of the belief that your PR claim just doesn't fit. I don't think there's a world where town has Neap, RC, JK, and a 1-shot BP. I obviously believe myself, Wiz flipped, and I'm believing Thom. PoE means you. That's the whole case.

[Celebloki]

I'm saying it's not Thom, it's you. Not it's not me.

[Celebloki]

I'm PoEing the PR claims right now, not the rest. I was pretty clear that I also think it's Elements. Whoever the last is I really don't know. Of the 4 it could be, I probably most think it's in Naerys or Hu Tao.

[Celebloki]

Aww man, I missed my 1000th post, I was gonna mark it. Well I'm finally at 4 digits.

[Celebloki]

I think I need to keep you in perpetual suspicion purely because I have no idea what scum!Naerys looks like. I've been in multiple games with you so far and have yet to see what your confirmed scum game looks like. I'm not putting it past you to finally roll scum and be able to play it off like town!Naerys. FWIW, I don't think you're today's fade, at least I'm not sold on going there yet.

[Celebloki]

My vote has sort of in spirit been on Roden, but I didn't want the day to end too early so never voted there. I also wanted to give the Elements slot a chance to catch up and maybe make some waves. Weekends are always a bit V/LA-ey for me and I don't get much chance to read back and do ISO diving. I'm hoping to get some back reading done and look into other slots that have been confusing for me.

[Celebloki]

Not sure if I should confirm who I'll pick, but I am for sure targeting in the VT claims minus FL and I am most likely picking within names that have been suggested. I'm not sure if confirming my pick will allow any shenanigans, so I'd rather not specifically say it.

[Celebloki]

I'll go ahead and just hammer since Roden and I have been at each other the last couple days.

VOTE: Roden

[Celebloki]

Bingle is NOT vanilla town.

[Celebloki]

I legitimately thought he had to be scum based on PR claims. I believed Thom's claim, over night I was starting to get paranoid on his slot and was worried he'd still be alive today. Nut the NK solves that worry.

[Celebloki]

FWIW I think HU Tao is town based on how she was really trying to get me to target her last night.

if roden is scum, celeb targets Hu Tao. if roden is town, celeb targets Bingle.

I followed this logic for who to target ultimately since I was already sort of town leaning Hu. My theory was Bingle would flip VT and then I'd settle on the remaining 3 {Maestro, Dunn, Naerys}, but now I obviously need to swap one of them out with Bingle.

[Celebloki]

My solve right now is Bingle, Maestro, Dunn.

[Celebloki]

Unfortunately, I don't think I can really say much to convince people to trust me, I essentially have to convince the remaining 3 townies to trust me onto Bingle. Yesterday when I was asking about PR possibilities, I unfortunately listened too much to Bingle's mech solving to make me think Roden's claim was bogus.

[Celebloki]

Reading Bingle, Dunn, RCE/Elements/Maestro, and Naerys in ISO... There is definitely partner equity in Bingle and Dunn. Bingle spent a lot of effort soft defending Dunn D2 when I was pushing Dunn for the Kyouko NK. Bingle and Dunn were also doing the most mech spec shortly after my claim, I'm not sure what to think of that...

RCE was largely skirting around them, sheeping FL and Naerys I really feel like is probably not showing much association to the other 3. I'm pretty set on the team being Bingle, Dunn, Maestro. I'm still working through a skim of them in ISO.

[Celebloki]

Bingle was pretty set on letting night phase sort me out after my claim and not voting me out, this seems to me like setting me up for an easy mislim in ELO.

[Celebloki]

Which is why I investigated him, I wasn't trying to hunt a guilty. I was very surprised at day start when I got my result back. Either he is banking on me not being believed if I checked him or he thought I was going to investigate Hu Tao or something.

[Celebloki]

I was following the advice of someone that to me is confirmed town. I was pretty up until I got my result back that I would get VT on either of you. I believed you more than Bingle, so I wanted that confirmed first.

[Celebloki]

pretty certain*

[Celebloki]

My ideal situation going into today was to have gotten VT on Bingle, believe Hu Tao on faith and known the remaining 3 at that point. This was assuming Thom was the NK and that he'd miss JKing the killer.

[Celebloki]

Well the ideal ideal would be that Thom hit the killer and had his own guilty of sorts.

[Celebloki]

It would technically just mean he's not a VT. But at this point the Town has a RC, JK, 1-shot BP confirmed and now you have to believe also a Neap. At this point it's obvious to me that town couldn't possibly have anymore PRs. At the very least Bingle claimed VT and I am saying he's lied.

[Celebloki]

Had I checked Wiz, Thom, or Roden on previous nights, I would have gotten the same result I got on Bingle.

[Celebloki]

No we always go Bingle here, but I'm also okay with Maestro. I didn't vote Bingle off the rip because I don't see a need to rush the day and spend some time having a discussion. I think it's telling who is willing to throw votes around when a quick lim is possible, fortunately no one I think is town has voted me, so I don't think I'm in danger just yet.

Not sure what FL is trying to do with his claim, interesting that Maestro took the bait.

[Celebloki]

It's mainly an optics issue for me. Through terrible, out of character, play surrounding my claim I haven't garnered much support from town. I have a hard guilty and have no qualms voting Bingle straight out the gates, but only I know for certain it's a hard guilty. My claim is not confirmed for anyone else. I'm on terribly thin ice and if I want to win with the town, I need to somehow gain good will. Considering how on thin ice I am, I think I have a responsibility to be careful so town doesn't immediately lose from my mis-elim.

I see voting immediately in ELO as not a move that generates good will. It only takes one misvote by a townie to end the game if all the scum players are around and ready. I think scum have more of an interest in trying to push things quickly without any discussion or analysis. Remaining town players may see me voting Bingle as needlessly hasty.

[Celebloki]

Considering I know FL is a VT and that his vote on Maestro hasn't caused a quick hammer tells me Maestro is basically confirmed scum too.

[Celebloki]

Me, FL, Hu Tao, and Naerys are my most likely 4 townies. I see partner equity between Dunn and Bingle, so its more that Dunn is the third scummiest for me. That leaves Hu and Naerys as town by PoE.

I think if the game makes it to 3p, Dunn is definitely one of the 3.

[Celebloki]

Unfortunately I think town has a very slim chance to win this game. Solely because I don't think the remaining town players will be able to not vote me the rest of the game. Scum will never NK me, my death confirms FL is town and Bingle is scum. If I'm not voted the remaining days I'll have more guilties and clears. They have to bank on getting me voted out and sowing distrust in me. The side effect is that for the rest of the game I'll clear/guilty someone each night.

The scum team is for sure at least Bingle and Maestro. I am stuck between Dunn and Hu Tao for the final slot. I guess we'll see if FL's gamble pays off. I'm not voting outside of Bingle or Maestro. At this point I think the better lim is Maestro on the off chance scum does NK me, it'll damn Bingle. If the game doesn't end today, I'll probably target Dunn or Hu Tao tonight.

[Celebloki]

The lack of hammer or movement on the Hu Tao vote is pretty damning. I find it hard to believe that the scum team can't coordinate and find a time to throw down all their votes to end one of the wagons FL was on (Maestro/Hu Tao) leaving me to believe both these slots have to be scum. Between the two I think I'd still prefer Maestro gone first so I can get a check in on Hu.

[Celebloki]

At this point, I feel I should try and find guilty people over VTs. There's no way there are anymore Town PRs, any Not VTs I get means guilty. My worry targeting someone like Dunn or Naerys is that they will be the NK and it's a wasted target on the next day. Scum aren't going to NK each other, so shouldn't I target who I think is scum and just confirm it?

That said at this point it's pretty obvious from where I'm sitting that the scum team has to be Bingle/Maestro/Hu Tao. Would scum really just let a town Hu Tao or a town Maestro sit there with a FL vote on them and not coordinate a quick-hammer? If they can't coordinate a quick hammer than they have really dropped the ball on those slots.

Scum are going to NK slots that haven't been making waves. I thought FL might be the next NK target, but scum might want to keep him around because they feel he is volatile and may suddenly direct his ire at a townie.

[Celebloki]

Cause I'm a Neap, I targeted him, and I have mod mail in my inbox that tells me he is a Vanilla Townie.

[Celebloki]

Well, I guess we'll see. If Tao is town and scum could never get a quick hammer together, I'll be mad.

VOTE: Hu Tao

[Celebloki]

I'm not on the team. If you're a patsy, I'm a patsy with you.

[Celebloki]

Shoulda stuck with my not voting outside of bingle or maestro

[Celebloki]

So who was the problem child for organizing a quickhammer?

[Celebloki]

Or were you guys waiting for someone to derail and form a case on a townie lol.

[Celebloki]

I coulda stuck to not voting, but it sounds like Naerys or Maestro wasn't far behind to clench it anyway. Honestly I just wanted the game over. I repped out and /outed all my other games but this one to take a hiatus for a bit. I stayed in this game because I unnecessarily scummed up my slot on D2 surrounding my claim and didn't want to force that on a poor replacement.

[Celebloki]

I think Naerys being the deep wolf would have made it hard, but if we had taken down Bingle or Maestro instead today, I would have eventually had a solve at 3p, would have just had to convince whatever townie I was left with. Keeping myself from being limmed was my biggest challenge.

[Celebloki]

in 3p with me, Naerys, whoever was left would have been really hard to convince it was Naerys.

[Celebloki]

I think Naerys being the deep wolf would have made it hard, but if we had taken down Bingle or Maestro instead today, I would have eventually had a solve at 3p, would have just had to convince whatever townie I was left with. Keeping myself from being limmed was my biggest challenge.

I never would have went Naerys over you.

Naerys setup the distancing on the RCE slot early.

Good to know my soul reading on Day 2 with RCE is good, though.

Yeah, my only chance was that you'd have been NKed by then and I'd be convincing Hu or Dunn instead.

[Celebloki]

Out of curiousity for the scum players, who would you have NKed had we gone Maestro instead?

[Celebloki]

My only chance was to get to 3p with Dunn and I don't think scum would have let that happen. There was no way a 3p Me, Naerys, Hu Tao would end with a town win. Hu Tao had already given up on me as well. I'm surprised she didn't vote me along with Bingle and Maestro earlier in the day.

[Celebloki]

I definitely should have picked Hu over Bingle having hind sight. Would me opening the last day saying Hu Tao was a VT have changed how you approached the day FL? Think you might not believe me and still case her at some point? I obviously wouldn't have voted her, but like I said, Naerys and Maestro probably would have hammered not long after I had.

[Celebloki]

Yeah it was fun.

Just wanted to say sorry for my weird D2 play. I tend to mostly post/read in games while working. D2 happened right before the holidays when it was especially dead at work and this was my only game not in a Night phase and I let the boredom make me do dumb, impulsive, out of character posting when this game was especially dead. I was trying to make things exciting and I guess I succeeded. Might have thrown considering how the last few days went for me. I hope I haven't sullied my reputation and when I get around to joining some games again I hope to have some good games with you all again.