Mini 2321: Classic Commercials (Postgame)

[Bingle]

There can be other roles. Dont always need investigative

Most roles used correctly can be investigative in nature.

[Bingle]

Do you think I'm making it up

Yes.

[Bingle]

Do you think I'm making it up

Yes.

To be clear, roden is claiming to have voted Dunn after I posted an argument defending him, Dunn towned it up itt, and fl unvoted, because it would protect Dunn.

[Bingle]

Do you think I'm making it up

Yes.

To be clear, roden is claiming to have voted Dunn after I posted an argument defending him, Dunn towned it up itt, and fl unvoted, because it would protect Dunn.

Eh, they’re straight up stealing from my playbook with that.

It’s the Flavor Special.

Do you often feel the need to scare people off of wagons that are already in the process of dissolving?

[Bingle]

To quote Alisae somewhere probably “NO FL IS ONLY VOTING SO YOU ALL WILL MOVE OFF”

Yes, FL I know that’s a thing you do. It’s not about the thing, it’s about the timing of the thing.

[Bingle]

I almost feel Bingle is leaning in to being ‘too logic based’ this game, and it feels like TMI sometimes.

I know this isn’t actually going to make you feel better about me before I flip or get cop cleared at this point, but you realize I accurately described the entire setup of my last game as a vt when we had a single claim, right?

[Bingle]

flavor

VC 2.11

Votecount 2.11

SirCakez (3): Roden, Flavor Leaf, Thomith
Naerys (1): Celebloki
Elements (1): Naerys
Bingle (1): AnimatedWiz
Roden (1): Bingle

Not voting (4): Elements, Dunnstral, SirCakez, Hu Tao

It takes 6 votes to eliminate someone.

Deadline:

(expired on 2023-12-31 09:11:00)

.

Combined mod ISO: here.

Oh wow. Given that it’s a holiday tomorrow, we’re actually decently likely to no lim here. Maybe I should’ve hammered cakez when he was e-1 instead of hoping for the replace to give us time. I’m headed to bed and I’m not actually sure I’ll be online to hammer something else if it becomes necessary, but I’ll do my best.

VOTE: cakez

[Bingle]

I’ll write up a case in a couple of hours, but roden just doesn’t seem to be arguing in good faith at all, and his actions don’t really match his stated beliefs.

I'm getting gut pings which is making me suspect Flavor/Roden, but I feel like I have no proof of this, as I was heavily TRing them day 1 I'm worried I'm getting paranoid because this day phase has been a bit of a slog/mess.
I'll be interested in the case of Roden and hopefully I can solidify a read there based on if I disagree/agree

If Roden and I were scum together, there’d have been a fade already.

someone ask me something
I need direction

Not to rush anyone

too

much, but we have 16 hours left in Day 2. If push comes to shove, we may have to make a suboptimal choice together—an unhappy compromise elim or no elim at all.

Compromise on Cakez to help deal with this Bingle/Hu Tao scenario, and move to next day with more info

How does elimming me help the Bingle/hu situation?

I think it would be a bit lame to use their thought of me as an excuse though as scum, so they are probably town.

I am unsure on who the mafia are. Not confident SirCakez is one but not against it. I feel against Hu Tao or Bingle.

So who can we actually get consensus on, cause it seems like there is no one really in common with everyone.

I think I could be behind a vote in Bingle, Hu Tao, Cakez, or RCE. I think Bingle or Hu Tao (maybe Cakez) gives the most information. RCE has a good chance of being scum but hasn't given anything to do any association analysis with.

Multiple people just voted Cakez.

More time is good.

[Bingle]

Mass ping, quotes are irrelevant.

[Bingle]

Headed for a flight now, gonna be unavailable most of the day.

Celeb, out your results.

[Bingle]

Pleasantly surprised Dunn didn’t die after telegraphing so hard, fwiw.

[Bingle]

I'm VT

Not sure what Bingle thinks I was "telegraphing so hard"

I read your defense of celeb yesterday as you being a town blocker (either JK or RB), actually.

[Bingle]

Whatever I'll just claim.

I'm Town Jailkeeper.

This was why I kept saying I believed Celebloki when he said he was roleblocked Night 1, because he was my night 1 target. I also said that I thought Bingles (at least I think it was Bingle) theory about a Jailkeeper made sense, because I knew he was right, because I was a Jailkeeper.
I wasnt confident I'd be able to protect correctly Night 1, so I instead tried to block the kill by targeting someone I suspected. I targeted off wagon, for the WIFOM reason that scum may think someone on the wagon might be targeted by a town roleblock, so sent someone off wagon to do the kill instead.

I Jailkept Flavor Night 2, because I did believe that the Rolecop/Neap were on opposing factions, so assumed both claims would live through the night, so instead Jailkept a Vanilla claim I thought was likely to be attacked.

Tl;dr:
I'm claiming Jailkeeper
Night 1 Target was Celebloki
Night 2 Target was FL

That was me. Maybe flip a coin to decide if you are jailkeeping Celebloki tonight.

Tho should aim at scum. JK is easily the strongest role alive, and also assuredly town based on balance.

[Bingle]

That being said, Thomith, Celeb, and Roden all have an individual chance of being scum, at varying degrees.

Don't be daft, flavor. Look at that balance.

[Bingle]

I am leaning towards believing Roden's claim.

So I think if there is mafia in the prs it is Celebloki.

Setup wise, it's maybe one of the two but not both. I very much doubt that Roden is town here.

[Bingle]

I really really struggle with seeing why a townWiz dies over a townCeleb unless Bingle exactly is scum. Celeb, in theory, being scum is another option, of course, but that also makes Bingle look bad on the way they defended.

What? If I'm scum and Cele is town I deliberately opened myself to the invest and then did not shoot the person who could investigate me, and also didn't shoot my protective read. Why the hell would I have shot Wiz here?

[Bingle]

Potential setups:

Neap
RC
1x BP
JK
6VT
Anything where the JK isn't town is just not viable

Neap
RC
1x BP

is not balanced v triple goon, let alone more power for scum.

Neap
JK

is actually pretty decent against triple goon, so to add a RC would be to add scum power. This being a simple, the scum power is likely something usable and not just a situational guilty for the RC, which means tracker/rc/strongman. This is backed up by the RC dying over the Neap, especially if there's a sman.

Neap/RC/BP/JK would require fairly substantial scum power, considering the likelihood of two clears on D1 and a successful NK prevention after that. RC has 3 people that are basically clears off of targeting, and potentially a guilty. It's completely reasonable if the scumteam has something like tracker/1x sman, but if they do why didn't any of them claim PR?

[Bingle]

Cele was targeting me, and I dont believe you claimed Vanilla?

I did. And then said that Cele should target me over you repeatedly.

[Bingle]

Does anybody wanna claim vanilla

Sure. I'm vanilla, and potentially the best clear for the gamestate, because it has the double whammy of basically clearing you.

[Bingle]

X-shot Juggernaut, Goon, Goon against JK, RC, Neap, 1-shot BP is balanced imo.

Eh...

If it's anything more than 1x Juggernaut, the BP only really exists to be a rolecop clear, which is not a very 'simple' game design strat. If it's a 1 shot Juggernaut, there's still the very real chance that scum is basically fucked after N1 purely on night play, which is just kind of bad game design.

[Bingle]

I could see 1x Juggernaut 1x Juggernaut Goon, I think, but that begs the question of why didn't scum claim any power roles when they had to have known that claiming all vt would clear at least 2 players.

[Bingle]

Yeah, I was considering somewhere in {FL, Bingle, Hu Tao} for my target. In a similar vein to my Kyouko target D1, I ultimately decided FL for semi-selfish reasons. I wanted to clear him in my own book so I could trust his analysis. In my limited experience so far with him and in general what I've heard of his reputation, I still wasn't certain he was actually town yesterday. I feel he risks and succeeds at crazy gambits.

FWIW, Flavor was an objectively bad choice, because it is entirely in town FL's wheelhouse to have been fakeclaiming VT as town PR there. It's why I bothered claiming VT in the first place.

[Bingle]

What if 1-shot juggernaut goon goon, vs Rolecop, Neap, JK?

I'd pass that. I'd be more likely to do limited tracker than limited juggernaut, because scum benefit from finding the prs early way more than killing through a protection, but a juggernaut is reasonable.

[Bingle]

I have none of the spoons required to post here tonight. Sorry, it's been a long week and I've done far too much paperwork today to be able to process mafia.

[Bingle]

I am actually leaning the exact same way for Thomith to 33/33/33 Jailing Celebloki/Me/Jail for the kill stop.

I would say 50/50 with Celeb/Me, but think the WIFOM of getting blocked is fine too

Thomith should just straight up target for the scum shooting. There's no chance you die over conftown JK.

[Bingle]

Pleasantly surprised Dunn didn’t die after telegraphing so hard, fwiw.

Bingle+ dunn could be buddies mhmm

What exactly about me suspecting Dunn was a JK makes me and Dunn likely partners?

[Bingle]

I am actually leaning the exact same way for Thomith to 33/33/33 Jailing Celebloki/Me/Jail for the kill stop.

I would say 50/50 with Celeb/Me, but think the WIFOM of getting blocked is fine too

Thomith should just straight up target for the scum shooting. There's no chance you die over conftown JK.

they should take this, but absolutely should go with the coin flip, even if it ends up being a 3 sided flip.

i dont think it should EVER be decided on what Thomith goes for, even if just for the WIFOM of it all.

If thomith hits the scum who is making the kill, thomith stops the kill. If thomith targets you or celeb it should be because he thinks you are the one who is going to be killing, because 99% of the time here the kill is thomith. Any scumteam killing anyone else is being stupid as shit. If thomith thinks celeb is town, he absolutely should not target either of you, because if he targets celeb he probably dies and stops celeb from conftowning anyone (like me )

The only reason thomith would want to flip a coin between you and celeb would be if thomith wasn't a more likely kill than either of you. Which he is.

[Bingle]

nah, still worth openly saying the coin flip scenarios, if only for the potential of a town Celeb getting more VT confirmations.

The whole point is that JK targeting Celeb makes it a 0% chance that there are more VT confirmations, AND in the situation where celeb is scum bakes in a reason that celeb doesn't have to have a result tomorrow.

[Bingle]

they dont have to listen to it, but dont see the purpose of letting it be on paper WIFOM'able.

The fact that I'm not going to publicly say what plan I'm going with should be enough WIFOM, no?

Actually what I was going for. I think you should make the decision after night start. The reason I was fighting so hard there was that giving preference to celeb fl targets just makes it easy to kill you.

[Bingle]

If FL wasnt 10000% town i would sus him for suspecting claimed bulletproof

Why? Bp is an incredibly convenient claim AFTER a ev dies. No one can guilty him, there’s no reason he would ever die at night and he didn’t share that he was a potential rc inno when the rc could have, yknow, made a bulletproof IC.

[Bingle]

Rc not ev.

[Bingle]

Yeah, to clarify my point, I'm agreeing that the 1-shot BP is a convenient claim that is likely a lie. I suspect he is the liar in the PR claims and doubt town has all 4 of the claimed PRs as they stand.

For the setup theorist nerds, what is the balance likelihood that Thom could be a Scum JK/RB?

None. The only way to balance scum jk here would be massive negative scum utility roles which isn’t a thing in simple normal setups.

[Bingle]

WIthout a Vig 1SBP seems weird for scum to have for a Simple though imo.

How so?

We literally had this discussion about why a rolecop Neapolitan result is a clear

[Bingle]

Rolecop wouldn't make me conftown, it would just confirm that I was telling the truth about being BP if I claimed it early

There is no point to a scum Neap other than as a RC godfather in this setup. There is no point to a 1x bp other than as a RC godfather in this setup. Therefore, a RC result of Neap or 1x BP is functionally a town result, because this is a simple game and Godfathers as a concept are contrary to that.

[Bingle]

If we are wanting to let Celeb use role + figure out if they’re scum or not, i think we always hit someone who doesn’t make sense as partners with Celeb, like a Roden. Roden flips scum, Celeb is most likely just always town. If Roden is town, it looks a lot worse for Celeb.

Celeb will never get a VT result on Roden. Roden is either TPR or scum.

[Bingle]

Why me? People keep mentioning me as possible scum, but when i asked for you all to speak your concerns about me, then there was huge silence.

I think trying to link me and dunn on the back of "Bingle thought Dunn making a wallpost explaining why the potential mod error wouldn't be so specifically in the case of a JK was a soft claim of JK" instead of "Bingle fought against the Dunn wagon HARD all day yesterday" is nagl, but FL is right overall. You're not really all that scummy, you're just not towny either.

[Bingle]

Why are we all assuming that if they are scum, they’re true claiming their role?

I'm not, but neap doesn't get a different result for Mafia Goon or Mafia Juggernaut or Town BP.

[Bingle]

Hit as in fade

Oh, nvm. I thought you were saying celeb should invest Roden, which would be the worst possible use of his action.

[Bingle]

RC Neap BP just isn't enough power for triple goon. Thomith is town.

[Bingle]

I'd be fine with a roden flip and investigating me if he flips town/hu tao if he flips scum. With that said, I think I'm more confident with

VOTE: Elements

I only ever townread RCE cause I thought FL was soulreading there and I think the fact that everyone seems to be fine ignoring the slot is probably +scum equity.

[Bingle]

VLA till Monday night. Sorry y’all, couchsurfing unexpectedly a couple nights.

[Bingle]

So… work travel has been a nightmare bc of weather. I’m not saying this to garner any sympathy or support or anything, but I’m currently stuck in the Houston airport and likely won’t have any resolution to that issue until tomorrow afternoon.

Because of that I don’t know when I’ll be able to have real content. I don’t want to replace out, but my contributions for the rest of today are unfortunately going to be mostly nonexistent.

In case I’m not around to do this for deadline, VOTE: Roden

[Bingle]

Okay, don’t vote.

One wrong vote loses.

YOU'RE NOT MY ROBOT SUPERVISOR!

VOTE: Celebloki

[Bingle]

Doesn't mean you're town but that team could be wrong

I will eat Titus's hat if FL is scum in this game. I expect that if we don't mislim me today I get faded tonight and I will beat every single player in face with a mackerel if you fade him when I'm gone.

[Bingle]

Lets say Celebi is town.
Does the neap guilty on Bingle means he is 100% scum or there is chance he could be a town pr? I am asking bcz i am still kind of having a hard time grasping how neap works

I am not a town PR. I am vanilla. Theoretically, I could have been fakeclaiming vanilla as a PR, but that would be pants shittingly terrible play. This is a hard 1v1, celeb is confscum.

[Bingle]

Bingle also specifically was trying to get investigated yesterday too.

Not just yesterday. I tried to get investigated D2, and SPECIFICALLY argued logic as to why I should have been investigated over you. Like, if I were scum here, I've been flirting with a guilty for the entire game. Who is my partner then? Who in this list do I trust enough to be the anchor and bring things home after I go down swinging? You specifically should be able to see me as town here, FL, because the only way me being scum makes sense is if I've been setting you up for the endgame the whole time. And it's very clearly not you/me/celeb which is mechanically the only way that works.

[Bingle]

I feel like maestro is probably scum looking to derail the 1v1, but I know celeb is scum mechanically. We always go celeb first here.

[Bingle]

@Dunn - If I were conf town, who would be the scum team for you?

Celeb/maestro/naerys looks likely to me, tbh. Celeb has you in a pocket because of the inno, and naerys is just kind of following the path of least resistance there.

Like, look at my voting history again. I protected Dunn from elimination because I thought he was an unouted JK who had willingly crumbed to prevent celeb going down. I was the biggest push for celeb to live another day. I was pushed gob until I thought he was town and the wagon only went through eventually because it was high info. I stood behind cakez even at significant risk of my own lim.

Like, undoubtedly I’ve had some bad reads this game, regardless of who is the third, but consistently I’ve been doing things that don’t really benefit a scumme scumteam and you should see that.

[Bingle]

I'm leaning celeb and flavor scum. Trying to find the last

It’s really not fleaf. I think m is voting with me because it’s a safe play. If they get support on me, he can just hammer. The lim is never outside of me celeb, so poisoning the well on the celeb wagon with a shit vote just makes sense, and if we vote right and get to see tomorrow he looks better because he jumped onto celeb early.

He just really didn’t expect me to have such strength in my fleaf read.

[Bingle]

I think Celeb stayed alive so I stayed in the pool.

And while Thomith is a Jailkeeper, I feel like Thomith was killed not because of them being a PR, but because they were town reading me.

On top of that, I actively was in a town core with Wiz + Thomith. Wiz died because they would have confirmed Celeb as a Neap.

Fleaf, you’re tinfoiling again. Wiz died because he could inno Roden OR guilty celeb. Thomith died because he could get guilties and potentially net us a spare mislim if we were really lucky. And you haven’t been in the pool, really, for days. If you’re right and scum is hoping to misfade you they’re dumbasses or celeb has to be scum, because celeb always dies first.

It’s far more likely you’re just being warlocked and they’re piggybacking your charisma to try to catch a fade on me to clench the game.

[Bingle]

Not voting outside of Celebloki, still.

[Bingle]

I'd appreciate you unvoting Hu, FL.

I'm not convinced she's scum 100% right now.

[Bingle]

If you aren’t voting outside of Celeb, then I have to solve this game today.

I mean... I don't think either of us makes it to 3p ELO.

We're clearly the next two nk's if we make it that far, and Dunn, Naerys, Hu Tao is a trio where I'm really only confident on feeling Dunn town. I'm slightly concerned that Hu Tao/Dunn will mislim you after I get shot here, but I've done what I can to emphasize the townread there.

I'll compromise lim here if I absolutely have to, but celeb is mechanically confscum to me and I don't see a reason to let that go.

[Bingle]

Unfortunately I think town has a very slim chance to win this game. Solely because I don't think the remaining town players will be able to not vote me the rest of the game. Scum will never NK me, my death confirms FL is town and Bingle is scum. If I'm not voted the remaining days I'll have more guilties and clears. They have to bank on getting me voted out and sowing distrust in me. The side effect is that for the rest of the game I'll clear/guilty someone each night.

The scum team is for sure at least Bingle and Maestro. I am stuck between Dunn and Hu Tao for the final slot. I guess we'll see if FL's gamble pays off. I'm not voting outside of Bingle or Maestro. At this point I think the better lim is Maestro on the off chance scum does NK me, it'll damn Bingle. If the game doesn't end today, I'll probably target Dunn or Hu Tao tonight.

If you were town you’d realize that it literally has to be Hu Tao/Bingle/Maestro fypov.

[Bingle]

Is there a possibility there is a traitor or no?

No. No traitors in a simple game.

[Bingle]

Hu Tao, what's your take on M?

[Bingle]

Celeb town here has perfect information. If he were town, he'd know I was scum. He'd know FL was town, which would mean M is scum. He'd know FL was town, which would mean Hu Tao is scum.

He's playing up the paranoia of "I'm just not sure" which should be a huge red flag, FL, even over what you see as me being a red flag for not jumping off of a mechanical guilty into what is almost a certainty but not quite. I'm ready to compromise, though. You want me on Hu, I'll go there. You want me on M, I'll go there. I'm okay with betting the game on you town.

[Bingle]

I will say that there is only one question mark left for you, FL, and that's me/Celeb and Celeb clearly isn't actually thinking about people's alignments. If you lose this for us in 3p, I'll be very upsetty spaghetti.

[Bingle]

Alright FL. I'll meet you halfway.

VOTE: Hu Tao

On your head be it.

[Bingle]

So who was the problem child for organizing a quickhammer?

We didn’t even try. We didn’t have to.

[Bingle]

I think it would be a bit lame to use their thought of me as an excuse though as scum, so they are probably town.

Fwiw, I take this as an accusation of cheating. If it’s okay as town, it’s okay as scum. Full stop, no exceptions. Otherwise it’s a trust tell which is legitimately cheating. Emotional manipulation is 100% part of the game and to be expected.

As far as the characterization of your game in general? Yeah, I think you’re overly reactionary and egotistical in solving and can probably be easily pocketed by someone who understands you. You’re over prone to OMGUS and gambit in potentially dangerous-for-town ways.

It doesn’t mean you don’t potentially bring a lot to the table as town, but being aware of your shortcomings is a good first step in overcoming them.

[Bingle]

Also, if it makes you feel better, I was lowballing my level of expectation for you specifically to explain away why I wasn’t giving credence to you townreading roden at that point.

[Bingle]

Legitimately, I do feel kind of bad about the win here. Thomith not wanting to push me because I was having irl trouble was massively beneficial for scum and definitely an oog thing. I strongly considered repping out there to prevent that exact situation, but I was selfish and wanted to keep playing with everyone here despite my inability to really play mafia around then.