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[Luca Blight]

Luca, I’m not really sure what the problem is with dp defending his town read when you literally did the exact same thing with Dann.

I have no problem with him defending it, but I do believe you have him pocketed to the extent that nothing will change his mind short of your red flip.

[Oatsmaster]

UNVOTE:

Since when did you townread Hu Tao?

Since I wrote my reads out, Im thinking that it’s fairly unreasonable to do a gambit like that without a plan as mafia and she definitely didn’t have a plan

You seem to have been scumreading Hu Tao for most of this day since her reaction test, so it seems odd that all of a sudden as you're writing out your reads list you become confident she is town.

why would mafia!oats be inconsistent with HT now when he is facing pressure just before his death?

Could be a few reasons, such as:

- He doesn't want Hu tao to vote for him, so tries to placate her with a town read
- To make her look a bit worse, or at least muddy the waters in terms of associations, following an oats red flip
- Because he wants to pick his battles right now - he can always return to Hu Tao on another day if he survives this one.

Why would Town!oats not consider whether the reaction test meant Hu Tao is more likely town earlier in the day? he has scumread her ever since then. You say oats made a good point, but he's only repeating what myself and other said ages ago. I don't get how oats can scumread her all day, be asked to give some reads and then suddenly, out of nowhere, decide she is town, based on this progression.

Is there a reason you write this post only considering the perspective that Hu Tao is town?

Still not an unvote correct?

Honestly would prefer if you just counted them as you saw them, I’ll correct them if I want to keep the vote on. Is that easier for you?

I'd much rather avoid allowing you to make corrections and stuff cause it could lead to weird situations

i'll count them as unvotes and if you didn't want to just revote who you were going for, sounds good?

Yes, thank you

[Oatsmaster]

It's probably easier for oats to just put Hu tao as town for now than to find reasons to justify scumreading her

You do realize that I didn’t put any reasons for my scumreads in that reads list, why would I have to justify keeping my Hu Tao scum read? As you’ve been pointing out as well, I’ve had plenty of reasons why I scumread hu Tao before

Because If you were questioned about it, you would have to justify it. And Hu Tao is still yet to vote you, but has expressed a willingness to vote you. I think this is a key strategic point here - you want to get on her good side if at all possible.

So it’s not about having to justify it then. another situation where someone moves the goalposts

[Oatsmaster]

Luca, I’m not really sure what the problem is with dp defending his town read when you literally did the exact same thing with Dann.

I have no problem with him defending it

If you say so

[DarthPunk]

Luca, I’m not really sure what the problem is with dp defending his town read when you literally did the exact same thing with Dann.

I have no problem with him defending it, but I do believe you have him pocketed to the extent that nothing will change his mind short of your red flip.

My other strongest town read, who I also know for a fact is good at the game and good at reading oats also has oats as town, do you think OOO is pocketed too?

[DarthPunk]

like the proposition here is that I am wrong and that tip top town OOO is also wrong. I can't really agree to that.

[Luca Blight]

Luca, I’m not really sure what the problem is with dp defending his town read when you literally did the exact same thing with Dann.

I have no problem with him defending it, but I do believe you have him pocketed to the extent that nothing will change his mind short of your red flip.

My other strongest town read, who I also know for a fact is good at the game and good at reading oats also has oats as town, do you think OOO is pocketed too?

Not according to 3490.

I believe Outoforder is wrong, but still open to the possibility of oats being scum as he's shown here. He is currently tunnelled on Ninja which is obscuring his view of the game, in my opinion.

[DarthPunk]

Luca, I’m not really sure what the problem is with dp defending his town read when you literally did the exact same thing with Dann.

I have no problem with him defending it, but I do believe you have him pocketed to the extent that nothing will change his mind short of your red flip.

My other strongest town read, who I also know for a fact is good at the game and good at reading oats also has oats as town, do you think OOO is pocketed too?

Not according to 3490.

I believe Outoforder is wrong, but still open to the possibility of oats being scum as he's shown here. He is currently tunnelled on Ninja which is obscuring his view of the game, in my opinion.

Yeah this is more correct actually, i walk back my statement,

[Oatsmaster]

Luca, I’m not really sure what the problem is with dp defending his town read when you literally did the exact same thing with Dann.

I have no problem with him defending it, but I do believe you have him pocketed to the extent that nothing will change his mind short of your red flip.

My other strongest town read, who I also know for a fact is good at the game and good at reading oats also has oats as town, do you think OOO is pocketed too?

Not according to 3490.

I believe Outoforder is wrong, but still open to the possibility of oats being scum as he's shown here. He is currently tunnelled on Ninja which is obscuring his view of the game, in my opinion.

His later posts say he thinks I’m town, why you lying?

[Luca Blight]

Luca, I’m not really sure what the problem is with dp defending his town read when you literally did the exact same thing with Dann.

I have no problem with him defending it, but I do believe you have him pocketed to the extent that nothing will change his mind short of your red flip.

My other strongest town read, who I also know for a fact is good at the game and good at reading oats also has oats as town, do you think OOO is pocketed too?

Not according to 3490.

I believe Outoforder is wrong, but still open to the possibility of oats being scum as he's shown here. He is currently tunnelled on Ninja which is obscuring his view of the game, in my opinion.

His later posts say he thinks I’m town, why you lying?

I'm not lying, you just can't read properly (although I'm sure that is deliberate on your part).

I acknowledged that outoforder townreads you, hence I said I believe he is wrong. My point was that he is open to considering you might be scum, as displayed in the post I linked.

[DarthPunk]

im not interested in yeeting anyone until OOO and ninja are back.

[SuperfluousNinja]

VOTE: SuperfluousNinja
Going 1v1 until one of us dies.
Most damning evidence in all game.

Oh no!

Anyway, I am back. Planning to catch up and then really drill down into the isos of my scum reads of oats / vivax / gob and see how I still feel about that team.

[Vivax]

Long workday ahead today.
Luca imo would be my top pick.
I prefer going gob over Oats.

I suggest he prepares a narrative for when either of gob/Oats flips town. I believe Oats is town. Gob id even know anymore, plays like a jester so he can be limmed.

VOTE: Gob

Too early to do anything with ninja here. Dannflor‘s uninvolvement in general has been noted.

[SuperfluousNinja]

ninja what is your read on HT?

I read them as town. More than anything else, I don't really understand why Hu Tao would purposefully pull these gambits and draw attention to themselves if they were scum. This game is the opposite of how press works in real life: any press is BAD press. Apart from having a role where your win condition is to get yourself yeeted, I honestly don't know why any scum would want to do something like this.

I also feel like Hu Tao is engaging with a lot of people in this game, not really focusing on one specific person (though correct me if I'm wrong on that). They're being more of a team player from what I can tell.

[SuperfluousNinja]

I was just about to ask if Vivax had given up on pursuing me. It occurred to me the day before yesterday how my scum team of Oats / Vivax / Gob would make little sense if both Oats AND Vivax really wanted to flip me. They'd be pretty dumb to both tunnel on the one person calling them scum since that would put them both in serious trouble. So if they were both still focused on me, I'd doubt my read. But now that I see the switch to Gob, that still aligns pretty well with my theory (I feel like Gob is signaling pretty hard to his scummates here to just yeet him and reap the benefits of having participated in killing scum, because I think Gob just doesn't care to play at all).

[SuperfluousNinja]

And she constantly repeats how it only takes 5 minutes to read through naerys' iso but somehow she didnt do it because its not large enough? Thats not good logic to me or anyone imo. She couldve easily admitted that her method was faulty but she doubles down on the exact same type of thing that shes calling me mafia for.

People really need to stop claiming that I did not read Naerys' iso or suggest that I didn't.

Darth asked me if I specifically read Naerys' iso during the 12 - 18 hour period after I left her in my scum pool, and during that time, no, I did not. You can go back and review the question Darth asked and see why that question is understood to be exactly that. He specifically asked me,

after you put Naerys in your scum pool AT THAT POINT IN TIME

, did you 1) read her iso 2) pay attention to my take on Naerys, and as I said, my answer is no.

But that does not mean I have NEVER read Naerys' iso. The reason I am currently not bothering with any analysis of Naerys is because I HAVE read her iso, multiple times, and it was such a waste of time that I no longer bother. If she has since come back here and said interesting things, I'll give that some thought, but at that time, no, I did not read it,

because I had already read it and I found it to be a pointless exercise

.

[SuperfluousNinja]

@darth punk

Luca and Ninja scum together seems impossible to me. They work together too obviously when it comes to derailing the thread.

Look I promise I am done doing what I was doing against Oats. The fact that it was WITH Luca is not the important part here. I needed to know what Oats' deal was, why he was being stubborn on what seems like a lot of really low-stakes stuff, trying to see if we could just talk through a read, be logical about it, come to an understanding. And to make an admittedly enormous story short, he won't, so I'm content to just scum read him and leave it at that. He had his chance to admit that his logic didn't add up and that his read strategy is faulty, and he did everything in his power to avoid having to admit it. So he's just scum in my book.

But for real, you won't see that from me again. I got the answer I needed.

Okay so you see here, shes fine saying that my logic didnt add up by her standards and because I didnt bend to her will and admit it, im mafia.

Oh I am interested in the alignment; I'm just not interested in analysis of Naerys herself, because there's just not enough to chew on. Whatever tools I want to use to sort someone out, I can't really use those at all on Naerys. You realize it takes like 5 minutes to read through her ISO?

My real life job is biostatistician, and in my profession, we often caution against even conducting a statistical test on anything with too little data. A conclusion based on small sample size is quite dangerous.

Thats a cool job. have you written any papers?

Mafia is not that though, we need to be able to infer probable truths from small pieces of information.

I do know her iso is really small, that is why it bothers me that you didn't

1.) read it when she was in your POE
and
2.) Notice what I did and rule her out from being mafia at least from the time being, or at least consider and dismiss it as being non-indicative of alignment.

Well, you're just going to have to be bothered, then. You don't think small sample size conclusions apply to games like these. I do.

So here, obviously her logic doesnt add up for DP, so she just says, well deal with it. And obviously thats not a problem for her.

Oh I am interested in the alignment; I'm just not interested in analysis of Naerys herself, because there's just not enough to chew on. Whatever tools I want to use to sort someone out, I can't really use those at all on Naerys. You realize it takes like 5 minutes to read through her ISO?

I think I've explained my viewpoint to Darth as thoroughly as I can. I try to look at as many interesting tidbits and nuggets of whatever as I can and I add those up as things that look towny, things that look scummy, and however the chips fall after adding it all up, that's how I tend to feel about the person ultimately. The bit about sample size, I just don't know how else I can get the point across that we do have an abundance of data on pretty much everyone here, while we have a staggering dearth of it with Naerys. It's not just about the post count; it's about what's in the posts. I insist that you can read through and understand everything she's done in this game in 5 minutes. That's just not enough of hardly anything for me to want to bother investing time into directly solving her alignment by studying her directly. I don't know how I can be any clearer on that point.

And she constantly repeats how it only takes 5 minutes to read through naerys' iso but somehow she didnt do it because its not large enough? Thats not good logic to me or anyone imo. She couldve easily admitted that her method was faulty but she doubles down on the exact same type of thing that shes calling me mafia for.

Yeah ok I see what you are saying, but do you think that makes her mafia.

Cause ATM I am not sure if this is just how she is as town and that makes me suspect her or if there is a mafia motivation behind it.

There is a much weirder post from her to be honest.

its this one:

If you all want me to sheep on a Luca vote, I probably will at this point. It seems like the most informative flip we could be making right now.

Even Luca thought it was weird

If you all want me to sheep on a Luca vote, I probably will at this point. It seems like the most informative flip we could be making right now.

Btw, what sparked this comment anyway?

Wouldn't Darth be as informative a flip as my own, if not more so? I would definitely say more so, given his connections to other tl members, especially the likes of Oats who has been backing him up every step of the way.

I also got the impression that you townread me more than Darth, so I'm just a little puzzled by this.

Ninja was kind of also pushing you and me as lims next after Luca

If you all want me to sheep on a Luca vote, I probably will at this point. It seems like the most informative flip we could be making right now.

What will your view of the game be after I flip town?

I would be extremely suspicious of Darth and Oats if you flipped town.

I don't think it would change my mind on OOO since he seems to at least have good reasoning for everything, whereas it seems like Darth's case on you is built largely on emotion and overplaying his read on things, and Oats is just trying to frustrate you and everyone else to make you look worse.

big assumption, but if we assume luca, yourself and me was TvTvT, that is kind of setting the stage for a Mafia!Ninja to line up a few mislims in a row.

I realize that this is a move on my part I'm going to struggle to explain. I really don't think Luca is scum and I still don't, but I thought at this point of the game, I was pretty much the only one that felt that way.

I'm also reacting to Luca having said that he "accepts that he will be flipped" today and that he said a few things suggesting his will to play this game and keep up with it all has diminished greatly. So in my mind this was a move along the lines of putting down a sick dog.

More than anything, I just worry about how much time gets wasted heaping suspicion on Luca, ESPECIALLY by you, Darth, because I town read you pretty strongly and you are one of the most engaged players in this game, if not THE most engaged, but you are spending such a significant portion of your time and effort on someone I think is also town. This whole thing between you and Luca just reeks of TvT to me and I just want this energy redirected to the right place here. If this is still going on Day 3, that's a problem. That's how I saw it.

Maybe your attitudes towards each other have shifted at this point, but at that point in time, they definitely had not. When I said that, that was on the back end of another like 5 pages that were just you two going at each other, and I was so goddamn sick of that at that point lol.

And a final thought on all this, I do try to be a team player, and that involves admitting I could be totally wrong on a player. Please do correct me if I'm wrong, but I think everyone was either null on Luca or considered him scum. 8 town, 3 scum in the game right now. What are the chances that all 6 townies are null / scum on Luca, and I'm the only one out of the 7 townies not including Luca that thinks he's scum? I'm waving the white flag and admitting that even though my own thought processes and my own way of approaching this game have told me otherwise, a lot of people have independently come up with a different conclusion than I have, and that just makes me wonder if I've gotten it wrong.

I mean look at how much heat I am getting just for playing quite differently from you all, and also look at how little experience I have in this game. The vast majority of my mafia experience is actually in the Starcraft 2 version of it, where days last for about 2-3 minutes and the emphasis is largely on night actions and such. Very little of my mafia time has been spent on forum mafia. I played a couple games on personalitycafe.com many years ago where days only lasted 48 hours, and I've only played I think maybe 2 games here, one of which I abandoned because I had such drastic personal conflicts with people in that game that I couldn't overcome (maybe you're not surprised to hear that lol). My experience with long-form forum mafia like this, where days last a super long time, is very minimal. I am seeing a whole lot of "why would Ninja do this" and the answer in probably almost every case is that I am either taking a different approach or I just don't have the experience in this game to understand why that's such a problem. But I am confident I can explain my rationale behind everything I did here, so please do ask if you are confused about something.

[SuperfluousNinja]

Meh. the yeet is just gob.

I think I agree with this. I think. It would be awfully nice to see if we could yeet one of the manipulative players out of this town and focus our energy more for day 3, but it's also good to take the win. I think Gob is one of the highest probability scum flips.

My main question is, what do we learn from it? Does anyone have a good feel on who might have defended Gob in strange ways? Like is there anyone we become suspicious of as a result of this flip? I guess my concern here is that, with the way he's been playing, we really don't learn anything about anyone, because he's basically game-throwing, and both town and scum can 100% justify yeeting a person who does that. His MO is to willfully not participate. Who wouldn't be able to successfully defend themselves yeeting a person who plays like that?

[SuperfluousNinja]

I don't even care honestly.

I'm feeling pretty confident I've largely solved the game with Gob/Oats after my last post. I've had success yeeting scum like this in the past.

This is where I am too, honestly. I feel pretty locked-in with Gob / Oats / Vivax as the scum team, but I am continually worried about having been played, so it makes me feel better to see someone else say this.

Who do you think is the third scum? Apologies if you said this a page later, which is currently about 20 pages ago lol.

[SuperfluousNinja]

I got up early and spent my hour before work trying to catch up, and I've only made it to page 149 lol. God I am fucked.

I do need to be playing this game less during the workday but I'll try to answer any burning questions you have in the meantime. Gonna be a process for me to catch up on everything.

[SuperfluousNinja]

BTW, one closing thought before I go, I'm actually confused by why OOO has framed his intent to go after me as a "1v1". I read him as town and I still do. Isn't a 1v1 used in a situation where both players think the other is scum, where they both want each other dead? Like isn't that how duels work? The entire planet has fallen in love with Hamilton so I refuse to believe there's a soul on this planet who doesn't understand how a duel works lol. It's not a 1v1 if I don't want the other person dead and don't have any beef with them.

I worry that he is framing it in this way, as a 1v1, to put lipstick on the pig, whereas the more apt / fitting description of what he is doing is that he's just tunneling me. Is he afraid to word it this way, that he is tunneling me? I don't follow why he wants to call it a 1v1 when it clearly isn't.

Anyone have any ideas on that?

[gob]

Alright not using tracker to track mafia night kill is easy mafia

Do you know how the role works? Or what?

I feel like im getting gaslit everytime i talk to these new people.

Do you?

Yes why else would i say it?

So the mafia factional kill has to be carried by someone but you can’t track them? Is that your understanding?

No i could track them. But the mafia chooses who kills among their team on this site. Given how under the radar Naerys was, if she was scum its not unlikely she wouldnt carry out the kill.

[gob]

Whats the VC? I need to know who unvoted me and who stayed on

[Gypyx]

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[Gypyx]

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