Mini Normal 2327: Bird Species (Game Over)

[SmileyDude1]

Hello everyone

[SmileyDude1]

First impressions on what happened so far.

I feel like the manner Gob has gone about the early game feels fairly aggressive in a manner that I wouldn't expect to come from scum this early into the day. I don't really agree with his rationale for limming Black here (at least on the base level of "policy lim" probs going to read through Black again afterwards to clarify my thoughts there).

Think so far I feel the worst about Nurse. From what I know of him they can be pretty aggressive at times in tone but their exchange with STD feels like there is a defensive undertone underneath there that's pinging me at the moment

Any consensus on the expected number of Scum members this game?

count the number of names in your pm

And what did you think you'd gain from your weak attempt at casting shade at me, STD?

I want you to explain your intention.

Fine.

We'll see how much it was "just a joke" as the this Day wears on.

VOTE: Random Nurse

My brain also pinged a slight bit at NotaScum's vote on 94 due to its position on the wagon and for being a bit of a sheep vote, but I realized it's not really fair to isolate it due to other votes on the wagon feeeling similar.

[SmileyDude1]

VOTE: [/no elimination]

In general it's worse for town to no-eliminate.

This is probs not the best explanation as to why, but think of the elimination as a town-controlled killing source. Scum have the ability to kill players during the night eliminating from the game and getting them one step closer to winning by doing so. Given that most of us here are town the elimination serves as a way to counter scum night-kills given that the town can generally agree on who scum is. Therefore it's going to be a bad idea to forgo that in most situations as town.

[SmileyDude1]

Also feel free to correct the above if I botch the explanation here

[SmileyDude1]

-SNIP-
( probs going to read through Black again afterwards to clarify my thoughts there).
-SNIP-

Ok, so I did a quick skim of Black's ISO so far and I can see Ari's point about Black's 36 being TMI, but I think I vibe with their 96 as a response. To me it feels like an undertone thing that could just as feasibly feel town, something to keep an eye on but probs NAI on it's own imo. Didn't really otherwise get pinged from their ISO at all besides liking 78 so would probs say they feel nullish (slight null town?) right now.

[SmileyDude1]

I do actually think Black is kinda scummy btw, it's not just me lolsheeping gob

I didn't ignore your vote, I gave you a halo emoji. If you want actual thoughts then I think you're gonna have a hard time policy limming me

Not really a policy lim

That's exactly what it is. You want to fade me because I'm good at scum and I fooled you in previous games as opposed to wanting to fade me for things I've done in this game

Yea but youve been scummy so far too.

Could I have both of you elaborate on your Black read when you get a chance?

[SmileyDude1]

Aggro? YES. Scummy? NO.

I like to get INTENSE and pick things apart once I actually start getting INTO the game and pulling at loose strings.

Question for you. Do you think STD's 37 was AI? Like do you think he's more likely to make that joke as scum or town?

[SmileyDude1]

Never mind my question, this answers it. Do you find anyone that seems fake so far?

I don't like votes vs Black.
Gob started with previous experience (looked like a fear or revenge vote for me), but then read Black's text(s) as scummy (I don't).
Cakez switch votes from T1 to Black (no matter whom to lim? smells scummy for me) explaining that he followed Gob (I usually don't follow others that early, some people do, so alright, but why not wait until Gob's vote if it is so authoritative?), but then claimed that Black is scummy (again, don't see it).
Other 2 votes (NotAScum and T1) with little to no reasons. Interestingly T1 did not target Cakez for quick vote switch, but also went after Black.

If Black is townie, can there be 3 scums in this group of 4? Unlikely. 2 scums? Yes, may be. But probably at least 1 scum there.
If Black is scum, can there be 2 scums in this group? Quite unlikely. 1 scum - may be, to distance from Black. No scums - also possible.

There is a reasonable chance that in any scenario we have at least 1 scum between these 4, but there can also be none (as well as 2), so I don't think that this warrant a change in my vote.

Things here seem to rest on how we see Black. OMGUS arguments against her don't look plausible. She has not switched her vote to one of those 4. (I would have probably done so had I been in her position.) Why has not she? Townie who wants to test people's reaction to this train? Scum who doesn't want to attack the train, since there is (are) fellow scum(s) there? All quite speculative at this stage.

Travelling for the rest of the day, so will not be until late at night.

Yeah, you can be town.

[SmileyDude1]

Anyways, back to Mafia:

I think I lean town on gob because it would make sense for him to be paranoid about me. He could be scum that is using that as a way to push me but I find this less likely

I suppose gob could be scum

He started Open 897 in a similiar way, pushing me and then working backwards to justify the vote. I think there's a possibility that gob likes to push me when he's scum because he views me as a threat. The only problem is I think he would view me as a threat if he were town too so it's really not definitive evidence

The policy lim stuff is scummy but it's hard to read gob with that because I think he does scummy stuff a lot when he's town

It's a lot of words with no real or clear conclusion, it feels like posting for the sake of posting

I'm showing my thought process. That's not scummy

I think T3's complaint is that your read here feels too hedgy (assuming I interpreted 189 correctly). Would you say you agree more with your 50 or your 71 right now?

[SmileyDude1]

Decided to make a quick readlist.

TR

: Snow

TL

:Hu Tao, Gob
Null: Ari, Black, Sircakez

SL

: NotScum, Nurse

SR

:

Need to take another look at some point (my inner lazeball is crying rn ): T3,Naerys,StD,Shaddow

Time for Q and A featuring special guest SmileyDude1

*Applause*

Q: Are these tiers ordered?
A: Yes, they are. The order is important here as well since I do feel there is a gap in my sentiment within certain tiers. I would say Ari and Black feel on the town side of null to me right now compared to SirCakez being true null for example. Should I have made more tiers? Maybe . Did I feel like putting in the extra work and potentially bloating the readlist? Not really.

Q: Why NotScum in SL?
A: Mostly due to lack of content and getting lurking vibes from the slot. Also wasn't a fan of what they have contributed so far.

Q: Why Hu Tao in TL
A: I personally get good vibes from their posting so far. Reread through their ISO before making this reads list and found it to be just generally solid imo. Get the general feeling that they're working to solve.

And that's all we have time for folks. Give it up for SmileyDude1 *Applause*. See you next time

[SmileyDude1]

-

Quick Readlist

-

precedes to probs put way too much effort into it

[SmileyDude1]

-SNIP-
Q: Why NotScum in SL?
A: Mostly due to lack of content and getting lurking vibes from the slot. Also wasn't a fan of what they have contributed so far.
-SNIP-

Speaking of which.

D1 threadplays are worthless.

VOTE: Black

Yo NotScum, You got any takeaways from what's occurred in this game so far. Give us your thoughts

[SmileyDude1]

-SNIP-
Need to take another look at some point : T3,Naerys,StD,Shaddow
-SNIP-

Thought i'd clear a few of these out.

Shaddow feels null to me rn. I don't really agree with their 80 and 93 in regards to Black, but I think it leans more towards real thought than a stretch. Otherwise not much else there for me to make a read off of. Find myself liking their 113 a little bit, so would maybe say null-town right now below Ari/Black

My brain instinctively doesn't like T3's 163 as a follow up to the 64 vote on Black. Kind of pings as justification in post to me due to the original vote lacking reasoning earlier. Would probs put at either the scum side of null or a scumlean atm. Question for T3

Black might be scum for what she posted on earlier pages

Feels like she's trying to give the impression of a nuanced thought process

Why do you find this to be scum indicative?

[SmileyDude1]

*I haven't been that active currently because I am actively going through the process of buying my first home. Bit preoccupied.

Congratulations. Happy for you

[SmileyDude1]

Anyways it's late where I am and I do have work in the morning so i'll probs call it a night for now.

Should be back sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening. Till then toodles.

[SmileyDude1]

Late night posting (probs against my better judgement given I need to get up early still but eh i'm sure i'll be fine)

Spoiler:

me tomorrow

I find more weary of Gob given their 275. One of the key reasons I townread Gob's play in my 194 was me thinking their 70 was better than rand to come from town due to it being adversarial in a way that I don't think it'd be intuitive to come from scum (Scum electing to start a push early feels feasible, but it felt unintuitive to get another player involved into the push at that point in the game as scum. Like I think scum in Gob's position would've been more likely to say disagree with Naerys take rather than escalate to calling them and Black partnered there). Their walkback leaves me more uncertain about the slot than I did before.

I've seen the cases against Black and I think something i'm probably going to aim for within the near future is reading through the early game again to see if I agree with the points made. Want to take another look with fresh eyes as I think there's a part of me that wants Black to be town that may be clouding my judgement right now. It might help on getting a better read on Gob as well.

(Was tired after my shift yesterday and ran into plans afterwards, sorry for the late post)

[SmileyDude1]

Also Nurse and T3. Would still like an answer to these questions whenever you get a chance

Aggro? YES. Scummy? NO.

I like to get INTENSE and pick things apart once I actually start getting INTO the game and pulling at loose strings.

Question for you. Do you think STD's 37 was AI? Like do you think he's more likely to make that joke as scum or town?

-SNIP-
Question for T3

Black might be scum for what she posted on earlier pages

Feels like she's trying to give the impression of a nuanced thought process

Why do you find the bolded to be scum indicative?

Anyways, back to Mafia:

I think I lean town on gob because it would make sense for him to be paranoid about me. He could be scum that is using that as a way to push me but I find this less likely

I suppose gob could be scum

He started Open 897 in a similiar way, pushing me and then working backwards to justify the vote. I think there's a possibility that gob likes to push me when he's scum because he views me as a threat. The only problem is I think he would view me as a threat if he were town too so it's really not definitive evidence

The policy lim stuff is scummy but it's hard to read gob with that because I think he does scummy stuff a lot when he's town

It's a lot of words with no real or clear conclusion, it feels like posting for the sake of posting

I'm showing my thought process. That's not scummy

I’m not totally sure about that. I feel like you’d have simply come to a more concrete conclusion and stayed there but Im not sure.

You guys just randomly voting to see their reactions? It really seems like it.

VOTE: NotAScum

Quoting for ping

[SmileyDude1]

You guys just randomly voting to see their reactions? It really seems like it.

A lot of these votes have reasoning behind them to back them up. If you're not sure why someone is voting somewhere else it's a good idea to ask why.

Anyways what are your thoughts on the game so far. Anyone feel good to you, anyone feeling bad to you. Feel free to put your thoughts to post, we won't bite .

To motivate you a bit, VOTE: NotScum


Anyways I'mma hop off for now so i'm not a complete corpse tommorrow. see ya

[SmileyDude1]

VOTE: Hu Tao

Anime avatars are scum tricks. I'll not give into such deceptions.

Do you scumread Hu Tao, or is this more of a random vote?

[SmileyDude1]

tired from work, sorry

same tbh,

Also 1000th post, and I feel a lil old now

[SmileyDude1]

still dont have a six pack which pisses me off

*Precedes to imagine a buff jigglypuff*

[SmileyDude1]

NotAScum feels like a weak sauce wagon rn

Could I have you elaborate on this thought when you get a chance?

[SmileyDude1]

Also thought i've been holding onto. I feel like the best argument for NotScum being town right now is that it feels like we've passed the point where the scum team would've/should've jumped in to help coach him through this. Think i'm still alright launching this though for reasons similar to Ari's 436 (+ they could also just not be listening to their team).

Going to keep my vote there for now until I read through the game again to get a better read on certain slots (see my 372).

Expect a result on that sometime later tonight, am currently busy atm.

[SmileyDude1]

Late night posting (probs against my better judgement given I need to get up early still but eh i'm sure i'll be fine)

Spoiler:

me tomorrow

I find more weary of Gob given their 275. One of the key reasons I townread Gob's play in my 194 was me thinking their 70 was better than rand to come from town due to it being adversarial in a way that I don't think it'd be intuitive to come from scum (Scum electing to start a push early feels feasible, but it felt unintuitive to get another player involved into the push at that point in the game as scum. Like I think scum in Gob's position would've been more likely to say disagree with Naerys take rather than escalate to calling them and Black partnered there). Their walkback leaves me more uncertain about the slot than I did before.

I've seen the cases against Black and I think something i'm probably going to aim for within the near future is reading through the early game again to see if I agree with the points made. Want to take another look with fresh eyes as I think there's a part of me that wants Black to be town that may be clouding my judgement right now. It might help on getting a better read on Gob as well.

(Was tired after my shift yesterday and ran into plans afterwards, sorry for the late post)

Alright so I did another read through and I think I see more of what StD/Ari and Cakez were talking about in regards to Black's read of Gob being fake. Their 235 does seem strange in the sense that it feels weird for this suspicion to come up at that point when Gob had been pushing a fear vote on her since the beginning of the game. There's a part of me that thinks this thought would've made more sense to have popped up earlier, but I also think Black very well could've been unsure of how serious Gob was about wanting to fear vote her. Thing is going through the rest of the game I didn't really notice any additional inconsistencies in regard to other thoughts they've espoused which makes me think this could just be an anomaly. I think i'd be willing to vote Black if need be, but it's like near the back end of players i'd want to launch today.

Think i've found Gob satisfactory upon reread. I feel like most of the reads they have given feel alright to me, if not somewhat scattered due to prioritizing Black for a goof chunk of this day phase. Would say they go back to being a lean town for now

[SmileyDude1]

T3->NotScum->Nurse------->Black--> (everyone else not in my keep category)

This would describe where i'm at in terms of priority launch order right now.


My thoughts about T3 212 still hold up. I'm not sure what to make of there 449 walkback. Gut instinct, it feels bad to me to 180 on their position given the other posts within the ISO but I probs need to think on it more.


I'm taking NotScum's 464 as a sign they may become easier to get a read on from day 2 onward (otherwise they'd probs be on the same rank as T3 for not providing much to work with)


VOTE: T3

[SmileyDude1]

I'm not launching Snow, Hu Tao, Ari, Gob today

[SmileyDude1]

As soon as people stop questioning me, you unvote, how convenient

I haven't been able to read the thread that much. I didn't notice nor know why people stopped questioning you because they should question you even more, especially after this post. Are you town?

I just assume they are joking. Snow is new so he may not know why it's not optimal

Are you saying not exiling anyone on D1 is sub-optimal? There's basically near zero info available on D1, so chance of a misexile is high. That's why I think we should start exiling people from D2 when there's some more info available.

See my 121.

Was going to write out a lengthy counter-argument but I don't really have the time or explanation skill to do so. Instead, what would you say is your strongest read right now? Even if you want to go the no-lim route it would still behoove you to acquire reads to help guide you going into the following day

[SmileyDude1]

T3->NotScum->Nurse------->Black--> (everyone else not in my keep category)

This would describe where i'm at in terms of priority launch order right now.

My thoughts about T3 212 still hold up. I'm not sure what to make of there 449 walkback. Gut instinct, it feels bad to me to 180 on their position given the other posts within the ISO but I probs need to think on it more.

I'm taking NotScum's 464 as a sign they may become easier to get a read on from day 2 onward (otherwise they'd probs be on the same rank as T3 for not providing much to work with)


VOTE: T3

Out of curiosity what's your reasoning for me being there?

I would hate to think you're being opportunistic.

My reasoning goes back to my 120. In summary I think your early interaction with StD showed a defensive undertone within your response that I didn't vibe with. I haven't seen much from you so far to mitigate that for me (answering my 159 would be a good start).

Have to leave for work in a second, but a question for you. Why do you assume that my suspicion on you could be opportunistic rather than misguided?

[SmileyDude1]

My issue with gob is I can see this type of push coming from either alignment. If he's town then he's worried I'll beat him again and also I think there's a possibility he just exaggerates his confidence in this read out of spite just to get me faded. If he's scum then the "fear vote" is an easy reason to hide behind while he just endlessly pushes me and works backwards to justify it. If he's scum then I think one of NotAScum/T3 is also scum helping with the push

I don’t think Black believes the last 2 points at all. Since when would gob do a ‘fear vote?’ I think Black just wants a reason to hedge on gob

Are you even reading the game? gob said himself that it was a fear vote in 22

Nvm I misunderstood what fear vote actually meant

You’re probably town

???

Your whole ISO is pushing me and shading me and suddenly I'm probably town? How did you reach that conclusion? And what are your thoughts on other players?

You don't seem all that concerned about appearances.

You're doing stuff that is weird + would generally be called out as scummy or at least cause people to be paranoid, but you didn't do any of those things in your scumgame with me.

The problem I have with this, is that you coming to that conclusion after pushing Black for a lot of this phase comes off as fake to me. When exactly did you come to this conclusion (Seems like you came to it in your 449 but don't want to assume anything) and what caused you to change your mind at that point?

[SmileyDude1]

im an evil ass dude

i be doing evil ass shit

Pink = evil, it is known

Knew there was a reason why that color gave me the creeps

Spoiler:

Pink's a nice color btw, the above comment is satire

[SmileyDude1]

HOLY FUCKING STRONG REBUTTAL

I think everyone ought to unvote T3 and hop on Black.

I'm sorta agreeing with gob and don't like the wagon comp, but I don't like the reaction either.

These siutations are really easy. You always assume the person who everyone is against is town.

There was a long period of time where Black was the main wagon and didn't have much resistance. Why didn't you feel the same way then?

[SmileyDude1]

My issue with gob is I can see this type of push coming from either alignment. If he's town then he's worried I'll beat him again and also I think there's a possibility he just exaggerates his confidence in this read out of spite just to get me faded. If he's scum then the "fear vote" is an easy reason to hide behind while he just endlessly pushes me and works backwards to justify it. If he's scum then I think one of NotAScum/T3 is also scum helping with the push

I don’t think Black believes the last 2 points at all. Since when would gob do a ‘fear vote?’ I think Black just wants a reason to hedge on gob

Are you even reading the game? gob said himself that it was a fear vote in 22

Nvm I misunderstood what fear vote actually meant

You’re probably town

???

Your whole ISO is pushing me and shading me and suddenly I'm probably town? How did you reach that conclusion? And what are your thoughts on other players?

You don't seem all that concerned about appearances.

You're doing stuff that is weird + would generally be called out as scummy or at least cause people to be paranoid, but you didn't do any of those things in your scumgame with me.

The problem I have with this, is that you coming to that conclusion after pushing Black for a lot of this phase comes off as fake to me. When exactly did you come to this conclusion (Seems like you came to it in your 449 but don't want to assume anything) and what caused you to change your mind at that point?

Yes, I came to that conclusion around 449

I changed my mind at that point because I thought about it more, but it's not like there was a specific catalyst or ah-ha moment.

Can I see an example of you doing something similar as town, because right now I'm struggling to believe that the sentiments shared in your 189, 369, and 444 actually changed just by thinking about it more. It feels too sudden to me.

[SmileyDude1]

going to bed now, should be back before deadline

[SmileyDude1]

Unofficial VC:

T3 (5): Smiley, Black, Cakez, Hu Tao, Nurse
Naerys (2): Gob, Shaddow
Cakez (2): StD, T3
NotScum (1): Ari
No Elim (1): Snow

Not Voting (2): NotScum, Naerys

7 to eliminate, 15 hours to go.
---
Kind of feel like those not already on the T3 wagon should consolidate if they want an alternative here. Votes feel scattered right now

[SmileyDude1]

Seems like we should lim one of me and black to get the most out of today.

As I mentioned earlier, i'd be willing to go Black to avoid a no-lim here but she's not my preference for today. I think it'd be easier and more feasible to figure out you/Black tomorrow when town has more info to go off of.

[SmileyDude1]

Live picture of my brain right now.

I still don't like T3s read progression Black, but the more I think about it, I'm not sure it makes sense for scum in that position to actually flip there read there in 449 completely rather than continuing to push or winding down gradually instead. Like the more I think on it, I can imagine town doing something similar.

Tbh even as i'm typing this pot my mind is going back and forth on the slot, but i feel the way they responded to me during my inquiry feels alright to me. Like I feel their 605 and 625 feel better than rand to be town, these feel like the type of responses that I think scum might be too self-conscious to make. Like I feel like scum would be more likely to try to fake a reason for the read change instead of acknowledging they don't have one. I think I only feel alright about it due to a lot of my sentiment in regards to T3 town being "it feels to scummy for scum to do that", I think the overall progression on Black still feels weird as all heck and I don't really have a good baseline of what they're capable of pulling as scum.

I think in summary, my read on T3 has softened a bit. Would still be willing to launch but i'm willing to look at alternative options at this point.

UNVOTE: T3

I don't really have a strong read on SirCakez, probs going to reread through the case on them and their ISO real quick and replace my vote afterwards

[SmileyDude1]

BTW how do you make a clickable link to "post number"?

If you go into preview when editing a post you should see a post tag. Click on it and you should see pop up. Put the post number of the post you're trying to link to in between the two brackets and it should link to said post.


Example: 669

[SmileyDude1]

Ignore the above post

Let's try that again since I screwed up and apparently deleted something important as I was typing the explanation there. Sorry

BTW how do you make a clickable link to "post number"?

If you go into preview when editing a post you should see a post tag. Click on it and you should see pop up. Put the post number of the post you're trying to link to in between the two brackets and it should link to said post.

Example: 669

[SmileyDude1]

You got to be kidding me bro.

Oh I realize now, I'm an idiot I put in post tags without putting anything in between them which is causing them to show up as blank . That's embarrassing

[SmileyDude1]

[ post] number [ /post]

Without the spaces

This.

Kind of want to leave the thread and wallow in despair rn, but I keep pushing

[SmileyDude1]

Ok, So I took another look at T3's case on Cakez, as well as Cakez ISO. I didn't find anything wrong with their StD interaction earlier and I think I agree with Cakez 608 in that I think T3's logic was a stretch in that scenario. I think the best point T3 makes against Cakez is their 586. I can see his point about Cakez potentially trying to hide behind Black's vote there. Will admittedly say I was pinged a bit by Cakez electing to not respond to that point, though thinking about it more i'm not confident in that point even being AI in the first place.

It feels fairly normal to me to not want to repeat a case if your voting for someone for reasons that are similar to what another player has already said. The most suspicious part would be Cakez publicly agreeing with another player as a justification to vote (could be used as a way to shift blame onto someone else), but I feel less worried about this for two reasons.

A.: I think this type of mind meld in terms of logic is fairly common and tends to often happen whether spoken or unspoken in games regardless of alignment. I don't really see how it's anymore AI of Cakez to publicly agree with Black's case then it would be if he just repeated her reasoning and voted there without invoking her. It feels generally NAI

B.: I didn't really notice any patterns of Cakez hiding behind other players reads anywhere else when looking throughout their ISO. I would actually say they've been somewhat aggressive in pushing reads that were not consensus such as the StD interaction earlier and their 408 in regards to NotScum, doesn't jive with the idea of scum who's plan is to hide behind someone else's reads

[SmileyDude1]

Don't think I want Cakez today.

VOTE: T3

I think we launch this and call it a day (My apologies to you T3 if i'm wrong).

Less than 9 hours to go, we got to make a decision here.

[SmileyDude1]

Mass Ping. just want to clarify if you guys are going to be available before deadline here (less than 8 hours from now). If not to discuss any further, at least to hammer if necessary.

Of course, don't sweat it if you don't have time and my apologies if this ping is of any inconvenience.

(I excluded Ari from this ping btw, since they already said they'll be back before deadline in there 660)

[SmileyDude1]

i am about to go to sleep

if you're still up, can I ask you vote one of T3 or SirCakez before you do so. Don't think there's time for anything else today

[SmileyDude1]

the reason I don't think either of them flip mafia is that this just doesnt feel like a game state where mafia are in danger of being eliminated because I don't think anyone cares who actually gets eliminated today

I think I see your point, but I disagree with your conclusion.

I think I see what you mean in the sense that I do see some sentiment of hedging in terms of who people want to eliminate (HT's 629 comes to mind for me as an example off the top of my head, probs could find similar sentiment elsewhere in this thread) which gives the impression that people don't care which person is eliminated indicating scum not being worried).

I'd be more inclined to agree with this though if there was minimal to no resistance to the wagons that occurred today. I don't think that is the case though. Look through most of the major wagons today and you can find someone who dissented against them. Black (myself for a while, Hu Tao), NotScum (SirCakez) T3 (StD, Gob) and SirCakez (you,me) all had resistance posed at some point while their wagons were ongoing and I do think that indicates that people care who the elimination here is to me.

[SmileyDude1]

I'd be more inclined to agree with this though if there was minimal to no resistance to the wagons that occurred today. I don't think that is the case though. Look through most of the major wagons today and you can find someone who dissented against them. Black (myself for a while, Hu Tao), NotScum (SirCakez) T3 (StD, Gob) and SirCakez (you,me) all had resistance posed at some point while their wagons were ongoing and I do think that indicates that people care who the elimination here is to me.

I can see resistance being mafia who are trying to look good for the next day,

what I'm missing is people advocating for one lim over another. everyone is kind of in a mood where it seems they don't really care what's going on

I would take stuff like 626, my revote of T3 earlier to fit this criteria ( I also kind of interpret Cakez 653 that way as well though that one is a stretch).

Would agree with you that it feels lacking though

[SmileyDude1]

I feel i'm partially guilty of this and it's one of my weaknesses as town that I want to improve on at some point. I feel like i'm decent at making cases and probing people in order to sort their intentions, but i'm bad at getting people to follow me.

i think I tend to try to provide my thought process, hope people see it, agree with me and follow my lead. And frustratingly often that tends to result in people ignoring me .

[SmileyDude1]

maybe I'm the problem and I just care too much

Nah, don't change Ari. It's a benefit, not a shortcoming

[SmileyDude1]

less than 5 hours left

T3 at E-2
Sircakez at E-3

Would prefer T3, For reasons I've mentioned in my 601, and 623 as well as not wanting Cakez for reasons mentioned in my 677.

Naerys is playing a lot differently than town games I've been in with her. There's a lot less effort, and 79 and 155 seem like she's setting up a reason to vote later on.

VOTE: Naerys

Hu Tao, Shaddow can I have both of you come to T3 pls

[SmileyDude1]

3 hours to go now, someone pls

[SmileyDude1]

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

This is a fake thought. From your pov you should consider Snow confscum. It doesn't make sense to fade me today. You just want to get rid of me because Snow is a one-shot

There is no snese in limming a conf-scum. You keep them around as long as possible so they spew people.

This is also why you dont want to let mafia bus their partner

How confident would you say you are in Black flipping scum right now and why, cause imo it doesn't make sense to vote her over Snow from Town!you's perspective unless you are certain that she flips scum as well (I think I disagree with the idea presented in 825 to begin with, though it's transparently not worth imo if there's any chance of a mislim or unecessary claim).

[SmileyDude1]

Honestly I don't really care if you think I'm scummy. We have guaranteed scum within gob/snow and I'm excited about that prospect

or could it be that they're both town? Notice gob hasn't actually claimed he's vig, it's implied. But he could've another town power role and just doesn't want to give it away. This'd also explain why he doesn't want to lim Snow. And this'd also explain why you'd be so excited to kill either of them

My hero…

Wait ???

This implies agreeance with NotScum's 867. If you're trying to say this is what happened, then why did you scumread Snow in your 822 after he counterclaimed the vig shot?

[SmileyDude1]

Think I currently lean towards believing Snow here. I'm not vibing with the way Gob approached this situation and I think I townread Snow more than him atm. I do want to perform due diligence and reread Snow first before committing a vote either way though

[SmileyDude1]

Interesting.

What's your thoughts on this?

PEDIT: lol on the mind meld

[SmileyDude1]

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

This is a fake thought. From your pov you should consider Snow confscum. It doesn't make sense to fade me today. You just want to get rid of me because Snow is a one-shot

There is no snese in limming a conf-scum. You keep them around as long as possible so they spew people.

This is also why you dont want to let mafia bus their partner

How confident would you say you are in Black flipping scum right now and why, cause imo it doesn't make sense to vote her over Snow from Town!you's perspective unless you are certain that she flips scum as well (I think I disagree with the idea presented in 825 to begin with, though it's transparently not worth imo if there's any chance of a mislim or unecessary claim).

It actually does make sense to vote her over snow even if its not 100% but whatever. I know what you are trying to ask. Yes i think Black flips scum for sure.

Honestly I don't really care if you think I'm scummy. We have guaranteed scum within gob/snow and I'm excited about that prospect

or could it be that they're both town? Notice gob hasn't actually claimed he's vig, it's implied. But he could've another town power role and just doesn't want to give it away. This'd also explain why he doesn't want to lim Snow. And this'd also explain why you'd be so excited to kill either of them

My hero…

Wait ???

This implies agreeance with NotScum's 867. If you're trying to say this is what happened, then why did you scumread Snow in your 822 after he counterclaimed the vig shot?

Because I am the vigilante and shot SirCakez, but he is claiming to have done that.

I'm skeptical of the idea that your so confident in Scum!Black that you'd rather launch her than someone who's directly CCing you, but I feel like we're currently at an impasse in regards to that so i'll leave it alone for now.

Can you go over why you elected to shoot Cakez?

[SmileyDude1]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

Had a similar thought earlier today.

It's not impossible for that to have occurred (AFAIK duplicate roles in regular normal games are fine), though I do find it highly unlikely. I feel like double vig in a mini is somewhat rare, and I think in the cases where that does occur it's usually like one odd one even where they can't both shoot within the same night. Then add the odds both shoot into the same person and it very much goes into "have to see it to believe it" category for me

[SmileyDude1]

What if there are two vigs who both shot cakez

I don't like this line of thought.

I don't see how there'd be two Vigs in a 13-player game. Doesn't fit.

Can it be that town has 2 vigs at the expense of lifting another power role?

In theory yes, in practice the big problem is both of you are claiming to have shot Cakez here. Skimmed through a good chunk of the mini archives (up through post 7) and while I did see double vig on occasion, in every instance they were gated so that they couldn't both shoot on the same night (and this was looking through a time where what was considered "normal" was less strict than what it is now).

viewtopic.php?t=29549
This is the link, would need to finish skimming later to be sure (have to leave for work in a second), but atm both of you being town vigs that shot the same night seems like it'd be unprecedented. It seems more likely that one of you/gob is just scum here imo

[SmileyDude1]

So i've been thinking about the ramifacations of the conflicting vig claims from differing perspectives all day today while at work and this is what i've got.

If Snow is Scum

: Then that would mean that Scum!Snow decided to counterclaim Gob after they had already claimed vig. This doesn't make sense to me for multiple reasons. Even moving past the concept of scum counterclaiming a vig that claimed the shot already being, to put it kindly, kind of stupid in most scenarios, it doesn't make sense for Snow to be the one to claim this given they were widely townread by most of the list going into this phase. It'd be cutting the longevity of the slot for not much apparent award. I think the only reality where this is feasible to me would be one where Scum!Snow believed that a confirmed Gob would push one of their partners out if left unchecked, which would implicate Black in this scenario due to Gob mainly angling for her (I think Scum!Snow requires Scum!Black because otherwise I feel like Scum!Snow doesn't counterclaim the vig in this spot. Like if Scum!Snow + Town!Black you probs just let Gob push her).

Conclusion: Not very Feasible (would require Black flipping red first for me to consider it

If Snow is Town

: Thinking about some of the posts from earlier today, (Thought this was talked about more but I only see Snow's 920 and 927 that bring this up) I partially retract my stance in my 914. I think there's a reality where both Snow and Gob could be town (though i;ll get into that more in the Gob is Town hypothetical). Regardless based on the Snow is town section, it should be clear that I feel in general that this ismore likely to be true.

Conclusion: Likely

If Gob is Scum

: Then they elected to claim the vig shot in order to get the real vig to out themselves, maybe not the best play in terms of expected value but on that at least makes sense to do in a vacuum depending on your team's relative position. This also feels further supported by the fact that Gob did something similar in Mini Normal 2326 that just ended (Was keeping light tabs on it) and might've decided to try a similar play here.

Conclusion: Feasible

If Gob is Town

: Then I think he's lying about being a vig. In the aforementioned 920 and 927 Snow brought up the idea of Gob being town that's covering for the real vig, and after thinking about it more, I think the way gob approached this actually makes a lot of sense if you look at it from this perspective. If Gob fakeclaimed vig to provide the real vig cover only to be CCed then it makes a lot more sense why he doesn't wish to vote his CC over Black. Also looking at it from a Town!Gob's perspective it does make sense to me why he may have decided to intensify his push on Black here. In a world where Gob knows that him/Snow is TvT it makes sense to become suspicious of people who are trying to lock the game in a 1 for 1 (scum have high incentive to do that when they know it doesn't involve any of the scum team). Given that, it feels reasonable for Gob to push Black for pushing the 1v1 (Though I wonder why I didn't catch more flack for pushing the 1v1 earlier if that was the case. If we look at it from the context of he's actually the vig then I still don't think his actions here make much sense. This feels more complicated then the reality where he's just scum, though I do think it's possible.

Conclusion: Feasible

(Also I realize that me bringing up the Gob is covering for Snow as real vig idea undermines the concept of the idea if that is in fact what is occuring here, but sorry, it's tantamount to my current thoughts on the Gob slot and i'm not going to compromise my actual thoughts by making something up in service of hiding it (especially when i'm not even sure that this is what's occurring in this instance)).

Continuing off my Gob is town hypothetical, I think Black does feel scummy in the world where Gob was trying to cover for Snow vig, as in a world where that is TT i'd expect scum to push it in order to near-guarantee a mislim and I feel Black was probs the player most aggressively pushing the 1v1 early (stuff like 807, and 866 come to mind). Though I think it also feels like the natural way to approach a counterclaim in that situation (I was in the same camp for a while after all) so it could just be NAI for her regardless of what Gobs alignment is.


Looking at pairs within the three I just mentioned, I already mentioned the Snow/Black connection from earlier. I'm not really seeing the Black/Gob pair that some others see right now. Atm I feel that the conflict between the slots feels too longstanding and persistent to be distancing. Might need to take a deeper look at some point to see if my thoughts change there. Snow+Gob is moonlogic, it goes beyond not really making sense to me.

If I had to rank the possibilities based on how likely I think they are at the moment I think they would be as follows (ordered within tiers btw)

(Just Gob, Just Black)- Most feasible to me at the moment, feels like the likely realities we're in to me
(Snow/Black, Black/Gob, None of them)- Possible but less feasible then the above two atm for me
(Snow/Gob, Just Snow, All of them)- These feel incredibly unlikely from my standpoint right now, would be shocked if any of these were true.

[SmileyDude1]

Also what was the benefit of gob claiming right now. Did he think his partner would get heat today or something?

If he's scum then he wanted to out the Vig. He started pushing me when he realized the Vig was one-shot

Which post made him realize the Vig was one-shot?

Snow claimed 1-shot

Snow never claimed 1-shot

I noticed this but didn't want to say anything about it. Kind of wished you didn't bring that up

[SmileyDude1]

Also what was the benefit of gob claiming right now. Did he think his partner would get heat today or something?

If he's scum then he wanted to out the Vig. He started pushing me when he realized the Vig was one-shot

Which post made him realize the Vig was one-shot?

Snow claimed 1-shot

Snow never claimed 1-shot

I noticed this but didn't want to say anything about it. Kind of wished you didn't bring that up

I considered not, but also thought that the reactions could be informative.

Do you have a take on the Gob/Snow situation?

[SmileyDude1]

Spoiler:

Think I lean towards launching Gob over Black here right now. If i'm being honest there's a part of me that's hesitant to E-1 this so early into the day, and there's another part of me that wants to YOLO it. Maybe one day i'll let the reckless side of myself prevail, but I think i'm going to follow my cautious side and give both another readover after sleeping on it before I commit to that. Expect a vote from me sometime tomorrow pending any thread events disincentivizing such

[SmileyDude1]

Checking in.

Read through Black/Gob interactions again upon daystart ocurring and I think I stand by what I said earlier in that I don't think Black is a partner here. Fairly certain she's just town here.

While doing this I noticed that there were multiple instances of NotScum believing that Gob is a goon (999, 926) and i'm wondering if this could be a freudian slip (like predicting Gob is a "goon" only for him to flip as a goon looks like you knew he was going to flip as that scum role). Checking through their ISO I also don't vibe with their progression on Gob yesterday with NaS trying to defend Gob against Snow and Black at first, before voting them later after most people stated they believed Snow over Gob

VOTE: NotScum

Would you mind explaining the above

[SmileyDude1]

Find myself agreeing with Black's case on Nurse as well. Would say there's probs at least 1 in Nurse/NAS right now

[SmileyDude1]

Looking through Gob's early day 1. I feel pretty confident that StD is also town here. I feel the repeated attempts at an StD push from Gob suggest that's not partnered either. I feel especially that 203 using an oog argument in order to attempt an StD push feels a bit dishonest in such a manner that I'd believe would be unlikely to come from scumbuddies distancing. It's tricky to explain, but To me, it just intuitively feels like StD is town here based on Gob's day 1 interaction with them.

[SmileyDude1]

I think in general I feel pretty good about her atm. I'm currently combing through Gob at the moment though, so that maybe could change things.

Speaking of which, feels like Gob was consistently transitioning between feeling neutral on Naerys and shading/scumreading her. Would say it feels less partnery to me right now

[SmileyDude1]

I think in general I feel pretty good about her atm. I'm currently combing through Gob at the moment though, so that maybe could change things.

Speaking of which, feels like Gob was consistently transitioning between feeling neutral on Naerys and shading/scumreading her. Would say it feels less partnery to me right now

Why does this behavior make them feel less partnery?

For me, I think intuitively it feels less likely scum would consistently hold their partner in that position without there being a softening in opinion at some point. Like there's never really a moment where Gob "feels better about Naerys" like I might expect if partnered. Stuff like 666 where it seems like Gob is less trying to shade Naerys to distance and more like he's trying to make a Naerys lim happen. It feels closer to scum trying to push on town than scum trying to distance from a partner to me.

Looking at it from Naery's end, I also find myself vibing with her Gob push during day 2 as well(it feels like it came at a point where Gob was still up in the air in terms of whether they'd be limmed). I think I lean town on Naerys atm, they're not in the group of people that i'm near 100% sure on being town, but they're also not in the group of people i'd want to look at limming today either right now

[SmileyDude1]

Smiley what are your thoughts on Hu Tao

Looking at Hu Tao+ Gob, I think I feel marginally worse about her than I did before. Looking at it from Gob's end, the most notable interactions for me were 129 where Gob accuses Hu Tao of a slip (This feels +town for Hu Tao. I feel like scum usually don't go for that method of distancing), 499 and 500 where he proclaims T3 as town after Hu Tao said she'd rather vote there (feels like shade), 749 where he calls Hu Tao his friend (eyebrow-raising though probs incorrect to read too much into it) and 1096 which could just as feasibly be distancing given the period in which he said that.

Looking at it from Hu Tao's end. The early part of the day 2 interactions are tough for me to parse. Looking back, the early push on you feels kind of bad and they also initially defended Gob during the vig CC stuff. Though I think their progression in regards to this feels perfectly reasonable, transitioning to agreement that it's just Gob when she realizes that he's not dropping the CC. I also think the way they approached this situation doesn't feel like it's informed. Like I feel like if you're scum in that position when Gob makes the vig claim, it makes more sense to stray away from Gob in case they get CCed (which is what happened). Instead, Hu Tao holds onto Gob town narrative for longer then what i'd expect in the event they were his scum partner.

Would probs put them in the same tier as Naerys. They generally feel towny to me, I wouldn't rule them out completely but I don't feel like looking there today.

(Smiley, Black, StD)
(Hu Tao, Naerys)
(Shaddowez) <--- This one's mostly here due to not getting another chance to look at them yet, a placeholder so to speak.
(Nurse, NotScum)

[SmileyDude1]

Quick skim looking at Shaddow and I think they feel similar to Naerys in terms if how Gob interacted with them (365, 666 being my main reasoning). Unlike Naerys they kind of only address the Gob/Snow thing late into that day phase after the writing was on the wall there (It's NAI in my opinion due to them only being here for the latter part of that due to circumstance) otherwise there's not much meat there. I think i'd actually keep them where they're at on this list. They feel similar to the tier above, but i'm starting to feel like I might have too many TRs (not sure how confident I am in an exact Nurse/NAS solve, may need to look deeper into that at some point) and I think of Hu Tao/Naerys/Shaddow I feel the least confident in Shaddow)

[SmileyDude1]

Gob what are your reads

You Snow, i think NAS js townie. Smiley, Narrys. Like them

Why do you like Naerys

Seems good to me

He does townread Naerys here. He wouldn't really elaborate though

Yeah, you have a point there. I think if i'm wrong on one of my townreads it's either Naerys or Shaddow

[SmileyDude1]

VOTE: Black

It is clear to me that Black and Gob are teammates.

Black needs to go. Her attempt at distancing was poor and awkward. It never felt a genuine interaction between gob and Black, her response was over the top and showy. Just go and read her iso and tell me it's a genuine attempt to find a scum, she seemed to have made her mind throughout the conversation with gob. It wasn't genuine at all.

VOTE: Black

I've mentioned my qualms with this earlier in my 1081, about how the conflict between the two slots was too persistent and longstanding to be scum distancing. Digging deeper there were some moments where Gob got hostile with Black that I just don't think happens if their interaction was theatre namely stuff like 858, 861, and 992 give the vibes of legit frustration with Black that I don't think happens in a world where they're both scum and Gob knows Black doesn't mean what she' saying.

What makes you two feel so confident that Black is partnered with Gob? Show your work.

[SmileyDude1]

For context the last game I was in, I made a very similar read that turned out to be correct, so i'd like to think that I'm alright at identifying these sort of things

viewtopic.php?p=13999948#p13999948 Link to that can be found here (also lol I just realized that I used the very similar language in both games without thinking about it )

[SmileyDude1]

Black needs to go. Her attempt at distancing was poor and awkward. It never felt a genuine interaction between gob and Black, her response was over the top and showy. Just go and read her iso and tell me it's a genuine attempt to find a scum, she seemed to have made her mind throughout the conversation with gob. It wasn't genuine at all.

VOTE: Black

Also NAS, do you have a response for my concerns listed in the below post?

Checking in.

Read through Black/Gob interactions again upon daystart ocurring and I think I stand by what I said earlier in that I don't think Black is a partner here. Fairly certain she's just town here.

While doing this I noticed that there were multiple instances of NotScum believing that Gob is a goon (999, 926) and i'm wondering if this could be a freudian slip (like predicting Gob is a "goon" only for him to flip as a goon looks like you knew he was going to flip as that scum role). Checking through their ISO I also don't vibe with their progression on Gob yesterday with NaS trying to defend Gob against Snow and Black at first, before voting them later after most people stated they believed Snow over Gob

VOTE: NotScum

Would you mind explaining the above

Namely
1. Can you go through your thought process during the Gob/Snow vig situation? You start out more so believing in Gob in your 813 and 814 then precede to pitching the idea that both of them are town and thinking Gob's vig claim wasn't serious in your 867 and 870 before you transition to calling him scum in your 926. What caused your thoughts to change at these points?

2. Was their anything in particular that made you think Gob was likely to flip Goon specifically? Or are you saying it's more of a misinterpretation?

[SmileyDude1]

Do you SR Black independently, or only via partner equity?

Not sure what you mean by partner equity, but mt SR on Black is pure on her back and forth with gob.

What was this about?

These are related to the following questions that I'll ask to SmileyDude1.

1. Can you go through your thought process during the Gob/Snow vig situation? You start out more so believing in Gob in your 813 and 814 then precede to pitching the idea that both of them are town and thinking Gob's vig claim wasn't serious in your 867 and 870 before you transition to calling him scum in your 926. What caused your thoughts to change at these points?

2. Was their anything in particular that made you think Gob was likely to flip Goon specifically? Or are you saying it's more of a misinterpretation?

All of your questions have been answered, you're asking questions based on my posts which are the answers. Now, I asked you a question before which you didn't answer, about what you think about Black. You're dodged that question which did not go unnoticed. I'll ask you different set of questions now, what did you do N1, SmileyDude1? Did you visit anyone? Who and why?

My apologies for not addressing you properly on Black, (though I feel like my trajectory there is pretty evident if you actually read through my posts).

Also I don't think you've answered my question in a satisfactory manner yet. I am asking you to go deeper on what specifically caused your taught process to change at those points. I noted that you went from point A to point B to point C, I am asking you to go more into how you went from those points.

[SmileyDude1]

I agree with NAS being scum. I think the last is Dragons. I liked Naerys push on gob day 1. I liked shadows overall play. And I don't think random and NAS are a team. I think black is town and I think smiley is town.

I'm pretty sure dragon is town

[SmileyDude1]

I agree with NAS being scum. I think the last is Dragons. I liked Naerys push on gob day 1. I liked shadows overall play. And I don't think random and NAS are a team. I think black is town and I think smiley is town.

What did you like about her push on gob D1?

I think in general I feel pretty good about her atm. I'm currently combing through Gob at the moment though, so that maybe could change things.

Speaking of which, feels like Gob was consistently transitioning between feeling neutral on Naerys and shading/scumreading her. Would say it feels less partnery to me right now

Why does this behavior make them feel less partnery?

For me, I think intuitively it feels less likely scum would consistently hold their partner in that position without there being a softening in opinion at some point. Like there's never really a moment where Gob "feels better about Naerys" like I might expect if partnered. Stuff like 666 where it seems like Gob is less trying to shade Naerys to distance and more like he's trying to make a Naerys lim happen. It feels closer to scum trying to push on town than scum trying to distance from a partner to me.

Looking at it from Naery's end, I also find myself vibing with her Gob push during day 2 as well(it feels like it came at a point where Gob was still up in the air in terms of whether they'd be limmed). I think I lean town on Naerys atm, they're not in the group of people that i'm near 100% sure on being town, but they're also not in the group of people i'd want to look at limming today either right now

Naerys does a similar thing in reverse, first with a SR on gob on D1 switching to a TR somewhat randomly and without explanation in 218. There's some nonsensical back and forth between them, and then her posts on D2 feel forced. 839 and 842 don't make sense for all of a sudden believing he's lying about the vig kill in 852.

VOTE: Naerys

Eh, I see some problems with your case here. I think 218 wasn't Naerys stating a townread on Gob so much as a general statement that she feels better about him. After 839 and 842, but before 852 she makes 845 and then transitions to voting in 852 after black does some convincing.

That's not to say she isn't scum. I do think the progressions wre more nuanced than what you're making them out to be.

[SmileyDude1]

Bringing this back again

<---- My Brain after reading these last few pages

Ok given the cat's out of the bag now I think it's best for me to claim what I know.

I am a town neapolitan

.

N1: Checked Black. came up not a VT
N2 Checked StD. came up a VT

I'm inclined to believe that Black is telling the truth when she claims TPR here. I think her postulating concern in her 772 about NaS rolefishing alongside the multiple instances where she expressed more worry about being forced to claim than actually being eliminated ( 824, 831, 935, 939, 946 there might be more in there though I think this sufficiently shows my point) point towards Black telling the truth in regards to being a town PR in my opinion

[SmileyDude1]

I am less sure on Black being town. I think her reads lately have been sus. And I don't see her reasoning for scumreading me. Even if she thought it was me and RN that's contingent on RN being scum. And has yet to say reasons why I'm scum independently

I actually think there's a world where both RN/NAS are town and you're scum with someone like Naerys or shaddow

You think my reads lately have been sus? That doesn't seem very truthful considering you just said we had similar reads and tried to use that as a reason why I should townread you

I scumread you because you're in the PoE and you haven't done anything that has made me go "oh I guess Hu is town"

This "I'm not sure about Black anymore" feels completely fake

In regards to the first sentence I agree. In a world where both NaS and Nurse are town that means that the only possivle teams are Hu Tao/Shaddow, Hu Tao/Naerys, and Shaddow/Naerys. Off the top of my head I don't think Shaddow/Naerys really works here (Shaddowez most consistent push in this game has been the Naerys slot), which only leaves the Hu solves remaining there.

I'm still trying to parse if it's reasonable (like decently) for Nurse/NaS as both town world to exist. In terms of launching Hu Tao, my initial gut kind of tells me that I don't want NaS and Nurse both in an ELO so would want to shoot there first. I probably need to think on it more before I come to a conclusion on that including reading over Hu Tao again, with a focus on looking at her in a vacuum (there interactions with flip scum feel alright)

[SmileyDude1]

Seems like we should lim one of me and black to get the most out of today.

Smiley what was your reasoning for targeting me N1 when it seems like there were several other people you were more suspicious of?

I wanted to check one of you/Gob in order to help clarify the situation between you two day 1. I valued you more as a check due to your general reputation as scum and being easier to read/ someone I could trust if it came up Green. (also now's a good time to say that there was a period of time between Gob claiming vig and him getting counterclaimed that I was seriously considering faking a tracker guilty on you to get you to claim when I got a chance to post in thread (from my perspective at the time dead Ari,T3 and Cakez suspected you at some point, and living Gob who also was suspecting you was Confed. I am very happy that I didn't wind up doing that).

As I mentioned earlier, i'd be willing to go Black to avoid a no-lim here but she's not my preference for today. I think it'd be easier and more feasible to figure out you/Black tomorrow when town has more info to go off of.

I think I pretty much locked in to targeting you after I made the above post

[SmileyDude1]

Smiley what was your reasoning for targeting me N1 when it seems like there were several other people you were more suspicious of?

I wanted to check one of you/Gob in order to help clarify the situation between you two day 1. I valued you more as a check due to your general reputation as scum and being easier to read/ someone I could trust if it came up Green. (also now's a good time to say that there was a period of time between Gob claiming vig and him getting counterclaimed that I was seriously considering faking a tracker guilty on you to get you to claim when I got a chance to post in thread (from my perspective at the time dead Ari,T3 and Cakez suspected you at some point, and living Gob who also was suspecting you was Confed. I am very happy that I didn't wind up doing that).


I think I pretty much locked in to targeting you after I made my 639

EBWOP (sorry I massively screwed the quotes there

[SmileyDude1]

VOTECOUNT 1.10

T3

(7)

- Black,

SirCakez

, Random Nurse,

SmileyDude1

, Naerys,

Aristeia

, shaddowez

SirCakez

(4)

-

Save the Dragons

,

T3

, Hu Tao,

gob

No Elimination (1)

-

Snow2697

Not Voting (1)

- NotAScum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2024-02-26 01:12:53).

Another thing to consider, do we think the T3 wagon was pure? I'm inclined to think no given the general state of the gamestate (both main wagons on town, I think scum being completely off one of them feels unlikely.

Yeah I think i'd be down for Nurse, Black.

VOTE: Random Nurse

[SmileyDude1]

Whyre voting RN? Black looks scummy and isn't a VT, good chance she's scum.

As to why i'm not voting Black refer back to my 1290 and 1194. I feel like Black's interactions with Gob feel like they're unpaired and I think the way she played day 2 indicates a PR mindset. Keep in mind I made no hint that I had a result on her at that point, which makes it improbable for her to have known that she needed to fake having that mindset in my view.

As to why i'm voting RN. I think there's a decent likelihood that there's scum within RN/yourself right now given how day 2 ended and would rather not chance having to sort between you 2 in an ELO situation if we divert outside of that and happen to be wrong. I'm liking RN over you in part due to my thinking that the day 1 wagon on T3 probs had scum on it given the gamestate we were in at the time.

[SmileyDude1]

You need something to justify the RN vote. RN doesn't feel nontown yet, whatve he done wrong exactly? Black on the other hand is confirmed non-VT, had suspicious bickering with gob and it feels like she is purposefully reading few things falsely to fit with her narrative.

Just because you repeat it over and over doesn't make it true. What about Black's bickering with Gob do you find so suspicious? If you're not able to explain can you at least point me towards the posts that make you think this.

Where do you see Black trying to manipulate things to push a narrative

[SmileyDude1]

Where do you see Black trying to manipulate things to push a narrative

It was a reply to one of my posts. Something like how much a Black wagon would get support which isn't what I had in my mind at all (It was directed at you). She tried hard to make me frame as a scum in those posts, she was falsely interpreting everything post to push that narrative.

I think I found what you are talking about (1141)

Thing is if Black is town, she doesn't know that what your intention was in making these posts. What makes this more likely to be scum trying to frame you rather than just town that is paranoid of you.

I have to leave shortly, will probs be back later

[SmileyDude1]

@Smiley didn't you say you thought Naerys/Gob had unpartnered interactions? Can you point these out because I'm not seeing them

I think most of my feeling about Gob/Naerys was coming from what I had felt was more generally a negative perspective on Naerys from gob's end due to 437 and 666, as well as Naerys handling of day 2 feeling good (Given Gob's flip, I had liked that she went to Gob wagon. Especially given she was one of the earlier people to do so and unlike some others it didn't feel like they were trying to push an agenda in doing so).

I think a lot of me saying that was more based on vibes, though I think my confidence there is weakening over time. The more I think about it, the less clearing Gob's interactions with Naerys are in comparison to some others (They were the first pairing I did, so I didn't have a good baseline at the time), and thinking about it more it feels decently likely that scum would want to position themselves against gob early due to low longevity of his vig claim, so I'm not sure I can clear on that either.

As mentioned in my 1133, there's a decent chance that if one of my townreads is wrong it's Naerys though I'm not sure I'm at the point where I'd want to shoot there yet today.

Also sorry for hopping on super late, been having a bit of an issue of intermittent pain in my right ear recently . Probs going to look into getting that checked out soon.

[SmileyDude1]

Hu, what do you think about Black + STD?

I can tell you that you're guaranteed 0 for 1 here (probs 0 for 2 if i'm being honest). What are your thoughts in light of what's transpired here since you left?

[SmileyDude1]

I am less sure on Black being town. I think her reads lately have been sus. And I don't see her reasoning for scumreading me. Even if she thought it was me and RN that's contingent on RN being scum. And has yet to say reasons why I'm scum independently

I actually think there's a world where both RN/NAS are town and you're scum with someone like Naerys or shaddow

You think my reads lately have been sus? That doesn't seem very truthful considering you just said we had similar reads and tried to use that as a reason why I should townread you

I scumread you because you're in the PoE and you haven't done anything that has made me go "oh I guess Hu is town"

This "I'm not sure about Black anymore" feels completely fake

In regards to the first sentence I agree. In a world where both NaS and Nurse are town that means that the only possivle teams are Hu Tao/Shaddow, Hu Tao/Naerys, and Shaddow/Naerys. Off the top of my head I don't think Shaddow/Naerys really works here (Shaddowez most consistent push in this game has been the Naerys slot), which only leaves the Hu solves remaining there.

I'm still trying to parse if it's reasonable (like decently) for Nurse/NaS as both town world to exist. In terms of launching Hu Tao, my initial gut kind of tells me that I don't want NaS and Nurse both in an ELO so would want to shoot there first. I probably need to think on it more before I come to a conclusion on that including reading over Hu Tao again, with a focus on looking at her in a vacuum (there interactions with flip scum feel alright)

Also thought that I wanted to get out. I think the way this day phase has went probs makes the Nurse/NAS both town world less likely to me. As mentioned earlier in the above post I think that most worlds where this is true would require Hu Tao scum. I find Hu Tao's persistence on wanting NAS today to be notable in this regard.

I know StD is town and I have high confidence in Black town.
Assuming Nurse and NAS both town, I feel Scum!Hu Tao probs would have been alright voting Nurse by this point in most scenarios. Keep in mind that we have 1 spare elimination left until MELO and NotScum's tunnel on Black. I think if we were in Hu Tao + Naerys/Shaddow world, you probs go along with launching Nurse, probs kill me, and go into MELO knowing that NotScum probs isn't going to be willing to go along wiith Black here. I think Hu Tao's persistent NAS preference indicates that she probably can only be scum with Nurse.


If you consider the above to be true then the only world (FMPOV) where Nurse/NAS are both town is one where it's exactly Naerys+Shaddow which as I mentioned in 1303 doesn't feel the most likely (granted that's admittedly a base-level read that should be probed at deeper at some point).

It's 3:30 AM where i'm at and I have work in the morning so I have to go. Good night

[SmileyDude1]

Black, I see your point in your 1364.

Honestly I think there's a part of me that feels like it might be tunneled in regards to wanting Nurse/NAS, and I feel like i'm being pulled into certain directions right now due to my status. Thinking about it, I probably should stop procrastinating and actually go back and do a deep dive on Hu Tao. I plan on letting myself decompress for a little while beforehand so I can look at it with fresh eyes. Expect my conclusion on that anywhere between later tonight and sometime tomorrow at the very latest.


I do have some questions for Hu Tao while i'm away in regards to her 1395

1. Who would you say are your top 2 most suspect out of those who stated a willingness to vote you? Given your stances earlier I'd assume 1 of them is probably NAS but i'm wondering who else you see as potential scum in that group.

2. Do you think we're in a gamestate where it's impossible/unlikely that town would be able to collectively and correctly agree to vote scum here? If yes, why do you think this? If no, why do you think that the willingness to vote you is sus rather than misguided?

[SmileyDude1]

Oh yeah also UNVOTE: Random Nurse. Until I finish this at least.

[SmileyDude1]

Am online right now btw. Currently composing the results of the Hu Tao dive

[SmileyDude1]

Black, I see your point in your 1364.

Honestly I think there's a part of me that feels like it might be tunneled in regards to wanting Nurse/NAS, and I feel like i'm being pulled into certain directions right now due to my status. Thinking about it, I probably should stop procrastinating and actually go back and do a deep dive on Hu Tao. I plan on letting myself decompress for a little while beforehand so I can look at it with fresh eyes. Expect my conclusion on that anywhere between later tonight and sometime tomorrow at the very latest.
-SNIP-

Going to just note down anything that I found to be of interest to me. Might condense this into a spoiler if this turns out to be too long.

Spoiler: Day 1

Any consensus on the expected number of Scum members this game?

I'm thinking it's safe to assume it's 3.

Don't bitch about me asking.

Going to bed now, and will be up later this evening. No quickhammers either.

VOTE: nurse

Votes Nurse here without explanation

I know what he posted.

I'm asking you why you're assuming he's town who wants to kill you for being good at mafia rather than mafia trying to push you for an excuse

This is true

Hu Tao indicates agreeance with Ari's line of thinking here. Given their read on Black shortly after, this feels more like Hu Tao is still trying to figure out what she thinks about Black here rather than scum agreeing to enable a push (probs didnt explain that the best, i'm trying to say this gives more "uncertain" vibes then "hedgy" vibes to me)

BTW, is there anything we deduce from the text on Snowy Owl?
3 threats (human activity, climate change, decline in species they hunt) = 3 scums?
Or based on your experience here it's just a text with no hints?

Nice to meet you, Snow. Glad to see you got a green pm

Posits an early townread on Snow. Based purely on the above quote i'm not sure that was the most warranted at that point. I can see liking the post based on vibes though the language feels pretty strong for that point in the game. Feels like that could be a pocket attempt

VOTE: black sheeping gob

Votes SirCakez for not liking his Black vote
VOTE: cakez

My take on the black vote so far. In the only game I've played with scum black she was sus from the beginning and something felt off. I don't sense that so far. Not saying i think she's town or anything but I don't scumread her so far.

This feels +town here. I think the progression from 92 feels more likely to come from town that was trying to figure out their thoughts on Black rather than scum. It'd be pretty easy to twist 92 into agreeing with the Black case assuming Gob/Hu Tao pair against Black!Town. For Scum!Hu to take the stance would indicate that the plan was to have one scum push Black while another scum "white knights" for her, though I feel like Hu Tao would've been more vocal in pushing back against Black wagon if that was the angle she was shooting for

I think cakes vote seemed weird though. And nurses post seemed forced that I quoted. I'm fine with either of them being the elimination so far

Justifies the 86 and 101 votes. I think I vibe with these as valid reasons with her going on to expand on thest thoughts in posts like 115 and 132 among others (I'm probs not going to go over non-notable read progression, If I covered every post where Hu expanded on her reads I'd still be typing by the next morning (context it's evening 7 PM rn as I type this)

BTW, is there anything we deduce from the text on Snowy Owl?
3 threats (human activity, climate change, decline in species they hunt) = 3 scums?
Or based on your experience here it's just a text with no hints?

Nice to meet you, Snow. Glad to see you got a green pm

Uhhhh


isnt this a slip?

Yes. Since i got a red pm, I know that he got a green pm. You caught me

think I mentioned this before, but this interaction seems unpartnered. Feels like a weird angle to push a slip in order to distance and Hu Tao's response gives off genuine sassiness vibes to me

Never mind my question, this answers it. Do you find anyone that seems fake so far?

I don't like votes vs Black.
Gob started with previous experience (looked like a fear or revenge vote for me), but then read Black's text(s) as scummy (I don't).
Cakez switch votes from T1 to Black (no matter whom to lim? smells scummy for me) explaining that he followed Gob (I usually don't follow others that early, some people do, so alright, but why not wait until Gob's vote if it is so authoritative?), but then claimed that Black is scummy (again, don't see it).
Other 2 votes (NotAScum and T1) with little to no reasons. Interestingly T1 did not target Cakez for quick vote switch, but also went after Black.

If Black is townie, can there be 3 scums in this group of 4? Unlikely. 2 scums? Yes, may be. But probably at least 1 scum there.
If Black is scum, can there be 2 scums in this group? Quite unlikely. 1 scum - may be, to distance from Black. No scums - also possible.

There is a reasonable chance that in any scenario we have at least 1 scum between these 4, but there can also be none (as well as 2), so I don't think that this warrant a change in my vote.

Things here seem to rest on how we see Black. OMGUS arguments against her don't look plausible. She has not switched her vote to one of those 4. (I would have probably done so had I been in her position.) Why has not she? Townie who wants to test people's reaction to this train? Scum who doesn't want to attack the train, since there is (are) fellow scum(s) there? All quite speculative at this stage.

Travelling for the rest of the day, so will not be until late at night.

Really good analysis. Glad my first instinct was right on you

Re-iterates Snow Townread. Think this makes the first Snow interaction feel better as a vibe read for me, given this analysis being a strong reason to townread him

Black is likely town BTW. This is how I expect her to act as town.

Black is likely town BTW. This is how I expect her to act as town.

can you give more specifics/words to this read?

She has a habit of acting a certain way as town rather than scum. I'd rather not say exactly what it is so I can use it in the future. But both games I've played where she was scum I called her scum day 1.

The above posts reiterates her Black read and expands on it with a bit of a meta read precedes to back it up later

I'm fine with voting NotAScum. Kinda just want to do something, this game feels dead

States intention with being alright voting NotScum,

VOTE: NotAScum

Votes him here, precedes to pressure the slot in 457

Random Nurse - unsure, leaning sus. Could just be busy
NotAScum - Is a scum
Hu Tao - Hu Taown
SmileyDude1 - Towny
Black - towny
T3 - idk
gob - gob
SirCakez - idk
Naerys - idk
Snow2697 - towniest town to ever town
shaddowez - towny based on lady interaction
Aristeia - towny
Save the Dragons - idk

This feels mostly consistent with what they've said so far, though the Shadow placement is curious. I was unable to find the lady interaction upon a quick skim through
the beginning of Shaddow's ISO, and i'm not sure HT's posting towards Shaddow indicates reason to TR on it's own there.

T3->NotScum->Nurse------->Black--> (everyone else not in my keep category)

This would describe where i'm at in terms of priority launch order right now.

My thoughts about T3 212 still hold up. I'm not sure what to make of there 449 walkback. Gut instinct, it feels bad to me to 180 on their position given the other posts within the ISO but I probs need to think on it more.

I'm taking NotScum's 464 as a sign they may become easier to get a read on from day 2 onward (otherwise they'd probs be on the same rank as T3 for not providing much to work with)


VOTE: T3

I didn't realize NotAScum was new too. So I'm willing to give him more time. I'm fine with t3

VOTE: t3

Transitions off NotScum onto T3 after realizing they're new. Kind of starting to get follow the wagon vibes here but I think it does make sense given they didn't have a read on T# per their readlist.

VOTE: Cakez

Switches their vote to Cakez after T3 claims. Given they also didn't have a strong read on Cakez it feels alright to me to want to get the claim there.

I think in general their day 1 feels more towny than scummy to me. Hu Tao's actions day 1 feel like they match her thoughts on the game here. There are some aspects that I found iffy but most of those were either minor or resolved itself over time

Spoiler: Day 2

I'm assuming cakes was the vigilante shot. Which is fair

This starts a back-and-forth between Hu Tao and Black about whether it's correct to assume Cakez was vig shot. Having read through the interaction multiple times now, while I do see Black's point, I do think it's fair to make the assumption that Cakez was vig killed given the kills night 1 were Ari and Cakez. The situation Black brings up as a counter (Mini 2325) feels different in the sense that both of those shot in that game nigt 1 (Delta and IAVH) were considered scummy to my recollection of the game. Thing is Hu Tao doesn't really go that route with the argument which makes it hard for me to give credit there, and the argument they do go with feels a bit defensive to me at the very least.

I mean look at how yesterday went. It's pretty obvious. The fact you even said it like that is sus.

This feels awkwardly defensive

Maybe I should have listened to gob day 1, cause what do you mean?
[/quote]
The last sentence of this post in particular rubs me the wrong way given Gob was scum here though that's probs not AI so much as I don't like it.

VOTECOUNT 1.10

T3 (7)

- Black, SirCakez, Random Nurse, SmileyDude1, Naerys, Aristeia, shaddowez

SirCakez (4)

- Save the Dragons, T3, Hu Tao, gob

No Elimination (1)

- Snow2697

Not Voting (1)

- NotAScum

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to eliminate.

The deadline for Day 1 is in (expired on 2024-02-26 01:12:53).

I'm dead. This means none of us were on scum LMFAO

Yeah that seems about right considering scum were allowed to sit around and do nothing D1

Do you think scum is lurkers?

I am getting slight pings due to her asking Black the same question in her 229. Granted this is the type of question where it may be feasible for someone's answer to change based on what period of time you ask them, but this feels like it could be fake.

I killed SorCakez

Why wouldn't you kill black

This post soon after Gob's claim feels less likely to be partnered. That kind of question undermines Gob's claim and feels like something I wouldn't expect a partner HT to posit this quickly before Gob had a chance to get their bearings.

What did you do last night?

slept well

Do you have a guilty check on Hu?

Why are you role fishing

I don't really know what to make of this interaction. Like it feels rolefishey, but then that's in response to NotScum rolefishing and comes off the back of Black also kind of rolefishing and my brain hurts . Just going to say it's probs NAI and move on.

Ok so one of gob/Snow is confscum

I actually disagree. Gob could have just been trying to take the kill from scum and let the vigilante stay alive. But then again I fake claim a lot so what do I know

Hu Tao posits a reality where gob is town despite fake claiming vig. On it's own that is unfortunate given the flip but a reasonable stance to take.

Awfully quick of Black to vote gob without giving the guy a chance to explain. Also I doubt a real vig would outright claim vig when they can just kill the imposter during night

Agreed actually if they thought they were scum

This feels bad. It feels like they're trying to shade Snow here by agreeing with NotScum's post doubting Snow being vig. Given the Snow/Gob competing claim situation, I could see this as a subtle attempt to undermine Snow to help Gob (NotScum also is guilty of this for the exact same reasons, though I feel Hu Tao comes out slightly worse due to agreeing with NAS's view at that juncture. Feels like a more convenient position to take given that it can allow for hiding behind NAS in the event you catch heat for something like this later.

Awfully quick of Black to vote gob without giving the guy a chance to explain. Also I doubt a real vig would outright claim vig when they can just kill the imposter during night

I cannot kill at N2. Had I remained silent and been killed at N2, Gob's claim would have been unchallenged.

I think Snow is telling the truth here

Snow is clearly the vigilante but I think both can be town still

Another instance of Hu Tao espousing Gob/Snow TvT viewpoints

Okay i think the team is snow and black + someone else.

Anyway there is no reason to lim Snow here today. Lets get Black.

Oh wait. You're actually hard claiming vig?

I think it's pretty obvious that Snow is telling the truth and that gob is trying to fade someone not named Snow because a one-shot Vig isn't that big of a threat to him

Agreed. Guess you were actually right

This revelation on Hu Tao's end is another aspect pointing away from being a Gob partner. The amount of commitment Hu Tao put into Gob in the leadup to this post only to realize that Gob was hard claiming vig feels like HT wasn't informed of the situation. I feel like a scum HT probably turns on Gob quicker after Snow CCed the claim, and is probably doesn't commit to Gob/Snow both being town as hard to begin with in the world where she's aware Gob's claim is fake.

gob makes a lot of tongue in cheek posts. I didn't even take his cakez claim seriously at first

So did I at first. But he did not retract his "kill Cakez" statement. And Black and Shaddowez, may be Hu Tao, seemed to take his statement as a vig claim. So I thought I had to challenge.
BTW, I still consider it possible for Black and Gob to be scums.

Yeah I agree. I thought he was fake claiming. I'm surprised Black didn't think that at first

I have a feeling that one of these people trying to pair me with gob is actually a gob partner posturing to push me once he flips scum

I can also see this being the case

I don't really vibe with these two posts in conjunction with each other. The first post seems to indicate agreeance with Snow's post in thinking Gob was originally fake claiming at first, while the second agrees with Black in thinking there's scum trying to pair her as a Gob partner. Something I find notable is that the first post isn't really cut and includes Snow's postulation that Black andd Gob could still be scum together. I'm getting bad vibes that 886 may have been a subtle signal advancing the Black+Gob theory with Hu Tao playing both sides in setting up to push those who are pushing Black/Gob in 1022. This theory does feel like it may be tinfoily though so maybe I shouldn't read too much into it.

Gut pinging on Gob and Black.

VOTE: Black

Then why not just vote gob?

Think I agree with Black in that this is kind of a critical point of the day (with Gob and Black being tied in votes at that point) and thus it feels +town for Hu Tao to advocate for a Gob lim here.

Day 2 Conclusion: This was more of a mixed bag. There generally seem to be a good amount of things when looking at partner interactions with Gob that seem unlikelt to have occurred which I find to be the main positive of the day for her. I don't think i really vibe with the early response to the Snow counterclaim though, thinking both Gob/Snow can be town probs will draw eyes after Gob red flip but on it's own is a reasonable stance to take. I don't like her echoing doubt on Snow's claim in 880 in the sense that it serves to aid what we know now to be flipped scum and is kind of hiding behind another player's opinion allowing for an out should that be scrutinized.

Spoiler: Day 3

VOTE: Random Nurse

I think the way he initially sided with gob to try and get me faded indicates he was part of the scum agenda. There's a chance he was just scumsiding as town, I just don't think the thought process of "gob is lying scum, but my gut is telling me Black is his partner so I want to go Black first" makes any sense for a townie to have. He didn't back off of me and switch to gob until gob's lim was inevitable

I have a theory on the third but I want to keep that under wraps for now

I personally think NAS was worse than him

States that NAS was worse than RN in regard to Black's argument

sus people:
gob
NotAScum
RN
StD

Town:
Smiley
Snow

Hu,Black,shaddowez are null

lotta sus people and only four town. Seems fake to me

I think I'm more wary of Naerys because I'm not sure why gob would townspew her like this after he fake claimed Vig and there was a real possibility that he would be faded

This is a good point

Agrees with Black's point about Naerys

I agree with NAS being scum. I think the last is Dragons. I liked Naerys push on gob day 1. I liked shadows overall play. And I don't think random and NAS are a team. I think black is town and I think smiley is town.

VOTE: black

Lets get rid of Black. Unironically. She is a good scum player and too hard to catch.

Not going to grudge vote

I don't feel like that's partnered interaction. I feel like if gob was scum with Naerys they would have talked about it already what gob was doing.

VOTE: gob
sus

When everyone was trying to push black, she started going to gob. And it actually caused others to think it over and derailed the black wagon

I kind of like that HT provided support for reasons she liked Naerys day 1 in relation to Gob

I can see Gob/RN here

What happened to this

I think it's one of RN or NAS and I'm leaning NAS. I've seen RN be this stubborn on me before and he was town so I could see that here.

Provides reasoning for wanting NAS over RN. I think I can see HT believing this
Why do you think only one of them is scum?

I doubt both scum would take the same position here

Vibe with this viewpoint, does seem weird for both scum to approach the game from the same angle here

Yeah I think I was wrong sorry RN. I should have listened to you yesterday

This also feels bad. Even if you scumread Black at this point, scum was flipped yesterday. This implies regret for flipping scum which is just ???

I'm a town PR. I'd rather not reveal my role as it would greatly benefit scum if I do

UNVOTE:

Kind of agree with Black that a scum!Tao probs pushes more for a full claim instead of relieving pressure by unvoting here

[SmileyDude1]

I think my conclusion is that Hu Tao is a bit of a mixed bag. I think looking at it in terms of associations with flipped scum she feels likely to be town here. Though I think some of her play looking at things in a vacuum feels meh (and in some cases a tad inexplicable).

I think i'd be willing to keep it in the pool, though I don't know if it's it's my first choice. I'm probably going to think about my reasonings for each of RN/NAS/Hu Tao being scum and revote what I feel most confident about in short order. I want to say I'll do this tonight, but i've spent the last 3 hours composing the above so i'm kind of tired.

Will do so tomorrow

[SmileyDude1]

For posterity sake I would like both Save the Dragons and Hu Tao to explain exactly why they're voting me. If and when I do flip Town they will be forced to explain themselves.

Save the Dragons is town btw, refer to here

Bringing this back again

<---- My Brain after reading these last few pages

Ok given the cat's out of the bag now I think it's best for me to claim what I know.

I am a town neapolitan

.

N1: Checked Black. came up not a VT
N2 Checked StD. came up a VT

I'm inclined to believe that Black is telling the truth when she claims TPR here. I think her postulating concern in her 772 about NaS rolefishing alongside the multiple instances where she expressed more worry about being forced to claim than actually being eliminated ( 824, 831, 935, 939, 946 there might be more in there though I think this sufficiently shows my point) point towards Black telling the truth in regards to being a town PR in my opinion

[SmileyDude1]

Neapolitan specifically checks for is a VT vs Is not a VT

If they were a goon they would come up "not a VT"

Save the Dragons came up VT, therefore they are clear

[SmileyDude1]

VOTE: Hu Tao

e-1

Are you SR Hu Tao that much? Why?

In a pool of {shaddow, Hu, Naerys, RN} I think Hu has the most partner equity with the rest of the group

Making a quick work post to say that Ive finished thinking about my reads on HT/NAS/RN and I've narrowed down to HT/RN here.

I agree with the above post and I'm fine hammering Hu here though I've been thinking that RN lim here might actually be better in terms of game state.

I should be able to post in around 4-5 hours from now and would like to bounce my logic off of you before the day ends. Pls no hammers before then. Thanks

[SmileyDude1]

I removed NAS from my pool for today due to kind of townreading their persistence on the Black/Hu Tao solve idea. It's giving me "I am right and I don't care what anyone else thinks" type of energy that I feel more often comes from town. I do legitimately believe their wrong on Black, and yeah in theory it could be newbScum pushing to keep Black in the pool and not aware of the optics (hence why I'd keep an eye on this slot should we get to M/ELO), but I think based on what i've seen, I'm willing to give the benefit of doubt that I think a scum NAS probs realizes that their Black push is against the grain a while ago and would've either softened on it or dropped it altogether. That and I don't really think it's a high info flip anyways


The reason I thought Nurse might be a better lim than HT is that it's probably stronger as an info flip in the off chance we wind up mislimming here. I think it'd be a better flip for clarifying Shaddow/Naerys here. I think general viewpoint is that there's a decent chance that there is scum here, though i'm not sure there's consensus that there has to be at this point. Looking at RN/NAS/HT pairs, I can see RN/HT working and ,while weird given their similar approaches, RN/NAS could potentially be feasible as well, though I think ,given how this phase went and even suspicions going back to day 2, I don't think HT/NAS can ever be partnered here. Thus an RN green flip likely would confirm that there's at least 1 scum in Shaddow/Naerys where as an HT green flip leaves that more up in the air and would make the oncoming MELO more difficult.

In short, I think HT probs is more likely to hit red than RN but is probs a worse flip in the event we wind up hitting green here.

Black, StD I would like your thoughts on the above

[SmileyDude1]

You're being fooled at the moment. I am not scum

Do you think Black is scum? What do you think of Black's interaction with gob?

I'm fairly confident that Black is town for reasonings that can be found in these two posts below (the first relating to why I believe her TPR claim and the second relating to why I don't think Black's interactions with Gob are partnered)

Bringing this back again

<---- My Brain after reading these last few pages

Ok given the cat's out of the bag now I think it's best for me to claim what I know.

I am a town neapolitan

.

N1: Checked Black. came up not a VT
N2 Checked StD. came up a VT

I'm inclined to believe that Black is telling the truth when she claims TPR here. I think her postulating concern in her 772 about NaS rolefishing alongside the multiple instances where she expressed more worry about being forced to claim than actually being eliminated ( 824, 831, 935, 939, 946 there might be more in there though I think this sufficiently shows my point) point towards Black telling the truth in regards to being a town PR in my opinion

VOTE: Black

It is clear to me that Black and Gob are teammates.

Black needs to go. Her attempt at distancing was poor and awkward. It never felt a genuine interaction between gob and Black, her response was over the top and showy. Just go and read her iso and tell me it's a genuine attempt to find a scum, she seemed to have made her mind throughout the conversation with gob. It wasn't genuine at all.

VOTE: Black

I've mentioned my qualms with this earlier in my 1081, about how the conflict between the two slots was too persistent and longstanding to be scum distancing. Digging deeper there were some moments where Gob got hostile with Black that I just don't think happens if their interaction was theatre namely stuff like 858, 861, and 992 give the vibes of legit frustration with Black that I don't think happens in a world where they're both scum and Gob knows Black doesn't mean what she' saying.

What makes you two feel so confident that Black is partnered with Gob? Show your work.

If you're town I ask that you consider the points made in the above posts

[SmileyDude1]

Alright then, I think we just VOTE: Hu Tao and move on then (sorry if wrong)

I'm probably dead tonight so legacy reads.

StD is conf town, never vote him
Black is also probably town, can't clear her but probs never vote there either

Less confident on this but NAS has a bit of a stubborness to them that seems towny, keep an eye on the slot, but would be weary of limming it next unless tomorrow winds up being MELO.

[SmileyDude1]

We did it!

ggs everyone, was nice playing with all of you.