Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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No I know what a Skinner Box is I just don't get what you're saying-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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In post 4242, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:In post 3999, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: This game really is just procrastination city-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Can you answer this btwIn post 6107, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
Gonna try to put this into words. If you think Reisen is always scum here and that Reisen flipping scum tips the scales towards me flipping scum then how is it possible for Kagerou and I to be in the same tier hereIn post 6095, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
That feels wrong but I don't have time to figure out whyIn post 6094, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Yep!-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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So basically an individual solve of "Kagerou is the likeliest to flip scum" and a team solve of "Kaguya/Reisen is the likeliest team"-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Like my issue here is specifically that you had Reisen listed as your TOP scumread while having a mountain of reasons to scumread Kagerou because it just reads like a Reisen bus-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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It's an issue because if Reisen is scum she's verifiably getting bussed since everyone is scumreading her. That's what's putting me on the "figure out who's bussing" path. I associate having an oversized scumread compared to the given reasoning as a sign of bussingIn post 6154, Yuuka Kazami wrote:
Are you certain this is an issue. You’re focused on a nuanced as hell read, in a land of a bunch of reads and posts I’ve made. It feels like you’re wasting your own time.In post 6151, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Like my issue here is specifically that you had Reisen listed as your TOP scumread while having a mountain of reasons to scumread Kagerou because it just reads like a Reisen bus-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Yeah and I'm town so what's your pointIn post 6157, Yuuka Kazami wrote: You’re not bussing her.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Has Kagerou dropped reasonings for her other reads yet I legit forgot-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Actually no we're both getting sidetracked from the meat of the argument. It's not about the quality of your Reisen read compared to Kagerou or mines Reisen read. It's about the quality of your Reisen read compared to the quality of your Kagerou readIn post 6161, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Has Kagerou dropped reasonings for her other reads yet I legit forgot-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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well and your Kaguya read too but there's not as much comparison to be made there-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I mean maybe? This is pretty much just the boil over from pages of mounting "something's wrong" gutfeel and I'm essentially playing Marco Polo trying to figure out the sourceIn post 6171, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Rn though, I just think it’s contrived.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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My general aversion to re-reads makes this very hard and whenever possible I prefer to livechat over re-read. You're here, Reisen and Kagerou aren't so this is the natural result of thatIn post 6173, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Another thing that just bothered me about Kaguya, albeit they called it being side tracked is that, essentially, they really haven't looked at how each player is bussing Reisen, because, as they say, from their perspective one scum is bussing Reisen, they only got around to it now and are pushing me while giving Kagerou a pass and also not really commenting much on what Reisen is doing.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Yuuka if you're town I unironically think it might be optimal for the both of us to stop posting until Reisen and Kagerou get back to playing this game-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Like this isn't working for me at least, I need to talk to the other two to get a baseline-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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In post 6168, Kagerou Imaizumi wrote: I'll be back later tonight.
Aya, can you bold anything relevant?
Are you following my plan?
What happened to thisIn post 5699, Kagerou Imaizumi wrote: I want to understand everything I did before I act.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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In post 6169, Aya Shameimaru wrote:
Plan?In post 6168, Kagerou Imaizumi wrote: I'll be back later tonight.
Aya, can you bold anything relevant?
Are you following my plan?In post 6013, Kagerou Imaizumi wrote: For the record, I am going along with Aya decides the lim. I'm not sure it's the best.
Aya picks one of us to vote first instead. That's a 50% chance to hit scum. Then, even if wrong, a town would have a 2/3 chance of hitting scum at random.
Once the 1 v 1 is declared, then Aya picks the lim with input.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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One last snipe butIn post 6184, Yuuka Kazami wrote:
Freezing my read of you at a low point is bold of you. Are you sure we cannot find each other just by talking forever and ever?In post 6181, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Yuuka if you're town I unironically think it might be optimal for the both of us to stop posting until Reisen and Kagerou get back to playing this game
Because I have faith I can just find you if I just keep on keeping on.
In post 6132, Yuuka Kazami wrote: You'll notice that if I had made up my mind, I wouldn't have changed my mind.
From Dai scum to dai town.
From you scum, to you town, to you scum, to you town, to you scum.
From kagerou town to kagerou scum to kagerou town to kagerou scum to kagerou weird.
From Reisen town, to Reisen scum.
It's weird.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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The former lolIn post 6188, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Are you saying I'll change my mind forever, or are you going to do a deep dive and try to figure out where I changed my mind in each particular instance?-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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If Kagerou's next posting spree once again ignores questions directed at her I will unironically instavote her in 3p-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Well don't keep us hanging-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Wow she's actually gonna keep us hanging. Hurt, shocked, betrayed-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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In post 6146, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:In post 4242, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:In post 3999, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: This game really is just procrastination city-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I'm getting way too much use out of that post-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I'm getting tired of waiting for stuff to happen this game. Aya if your kill today is Reisen can you just speed things along and save GIF the trouble of finding a replacement to a 250 page uPick?-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Wait no actually this is too spicy since you're townreading Kagerou so you're either voting me (wrong) or voting Yuuka (also probably wrong)-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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It's amazing how half the playerlist is active enough to instantly livechat while the other half keeps getting replaced for inactivity-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I'm pocketing GIF by saving them from hard workIn post 6234, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:
Will say in particular though that this feels like someone who is anxious to accelerate the day and end the game and doesn't want a replacement coming in and creating problems for them. I know my predecessor targeted them with their spellcard to make them self target, but yeah. Gut ping.In post 6210, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I'm getting tired of waiting for stuff to happen this game. Aya if your kill today is Reisen can you just speed things along and save GIF the trouble of finding a replacement to a 250 page uPick?-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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If you know my main you'd also know I'm very obviously in my townrange and outside my scumrangeIn post 6241, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote: I wasn't expecting to even recognize anyone but it just sort of happened and it's going to be coloring my read because I think they're an extremely capable scum player.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I simultaneously want to get into meta reads with Reisen but also don't-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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shush I'm having an under the table convo with Reisen, what would be the point of simultaneously playing to a town meta while also heavily obfuscating my mainIn post 6256, Aya Shameimaru wrote:
this after "thou shalt not meta" is hystericalIn post 6254, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
If you know my main you'd also know I'm very obviously in my townrange and outside my scumrangeIn post 6241, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote: I wasn't expecting to even recognize anyone but it just sort of happened and it's going to be coloring my read because I think they're an extremely capable scum player.
also i want to murder you for saying this-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Stylistic tell and I'm annoyed that it got picked upIn post 6251, Yuuka Kazami wrote:
That’s interesting since if you play mafia much on this site you’re probably going to notice some distinctive posting.In post 6241, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote: I wasn't expecting to even recognize anyone but it just sort of happened and it's going to be coloring my read because I think they're an extremely capable scum player.
I’m surprised you could figure out who Kaguya was given they kept it all to mech speculation and no one, on this website, does it quite that way to knowledge. Maybe they dropped a catch phrase or something very common to them that I missed.
This feels unnatural.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Yuuka: new baseline. I think like 65+%ish of my townread on you comes from just existing more compared to Reisen/Kagerou. New Reisen I want to kill more than before but there's a level of OMGUS there that I'm gonna need to sort outIn post 6182, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Like this isn't working for me at least, I need to talk to the other two to get a baseline-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Kagerou townreaders: pretend you're maf and you know I'm town. Is Kagerou still town in that world?-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I'm very easy to activity read if I'm not actively putting in effort to play to my meta because my scum games are consistently high effort while my town games are only high effort when needed. I wasn't expecting to get mainread this easily so as scum I'd be taking the extra thread control by being active D1/D2 instead of playing to a meta I wouldn't be expecting to need to play toIn post 6263, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Also, ‘very good scum player’ with player you think correctly meta read you and ‘I’m out of my scum range’ doth not compute.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I can tell which posts triggered the recognition based off of the quote numbers in between and they're correctly calling me out as someone that'd bus on d1 in a way that'd make it hard to clear Kagerou from their perspective. They know who I amIn post 6267, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Are you certain they even correctly identified you.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Not within my first 20 posts noIn post 6270, Yuuka Kazami wrote: You weren’t expecting to get main read after 800 posts? By a replace in?-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Aya I just want you to know I'm enjoying your suffering, it's very funnyIn post 6293, Aya Shameimaru wrote: Ughhhh-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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That'd make it even funnierIn post 6295, Aya Shameimaru wrote: Will you enjoy it when I kill you? Lmfao-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I also thought you were saying Reisen was lying thereIn post 6275, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Why did you think unnatural was short for lie?-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Ok then pretend it's Goon + Traitor and I just IC'd. I'm basically asking if you'd give a Yuuka/Reisen solve if you replaced into my slotIn post 6278, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:
What does this even mean? If I'm mafia then I know who my teammates are, this is a nonsense question.In post 6261, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Kagerou townreaders: pretend you're maf and you know I'm town. Is Kagerou still town in that world?-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Yeah and after that I'd have the benefit of obfuscating my main by focusing on mechIn post 6282, Yuuka Kazami wrote: But yeah, true, unless you’re doing it on purpose to get identified that’s very fast.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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If I wanted you dead here I could have easily just gone "" to Aya going "I wanna kill Reisen" instead of pushing KagerouIn post 6285, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote: Further than all that, I can see how the dynamic is shaping up, I can see how both of you are reacting to my posting and that gives me more data to work with and it's kind of exactly what I'd expect if I'm the necessary miselim for scum here. Maybe that's a bit too much of a martyr complex and Kagerou hasn't posted, but more or less when I replace into a slot like this I expect to get jumped on by scum because they're looking to suffocate me and don't want me posting my way out of the hole I'm in-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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idk it's just how I read the postIn post 6302, Yuuka Kazami wrote:
But y tho.In post 6299, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I also thought you were saying Reisen was lying there-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I have meta'd 0 people this game, even when they altslipped or when they practically announced their main.In post 6286, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Make no mistake, my notes are full of meta spec, but I kept it out of the game because *you can’t talk about it* but you did talk about it and then can’t proceed further and you can’t talk about it.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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The only person I recognised is Clownpiece V2In post 6306, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Long line is long.
I meant using your understanding of a player to make a read, meta, not “I shall identify their main and then go read up on their games” meta.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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*One week later*In post 6307, Aya Shameimaru wrote: I know what I wanna do but I want a Wolfie back to finalize my thoughts tbh.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I unironically only recognised Clownpiece V2 this game-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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16 hours until the search for the new Kagerou starts, place your bets on how quick the process will be-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Reisen posts indicating where to look:In post 6318, Yuuka Kazami wrote:
I went back because I figured you were talking about some quotes Reisen posted that I had missed, but nope. None indicate they have much of an opinion on you besides they think they know who your main is. You are saying that, based on your estimate of where their reread, that you predict they found the posts that you personally find to be characteristic of your main. that they didn’t post or point to. *psyduck*In post 6268, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
I can tell which posts triggered the recognition based off of the quote numbers in between and they're correctly calling me out as someone that'd bus on d1 in a way that'd make it hard to clear Kagerou from their perspective. They know who I amIn post 6267, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Are you certain they even correctly identified you.
In post 6239, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:In post 322, Eternity Larva wrote: Reisen can you elaborate on your 'ew' pile? Our reads seem to align in that regard but i want to know why you feel that wayIn post 325, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:
They aren’t going to be for the same reasons cuz I’m super selfish and the world revolves around me but.In post 322, Eternity Larva wrote: Reisen can you elaborate on your 'ew' pile? Our reads seem to align in that regard but i want to know why you feel that way
I thought kagerou putting me in their town core off just my ascetic claim was super weird. Marisa piggybacked on but I get their mindset because I’m also predisposed to town reading lighthearted jokey slots especially early in games. So reads genuine.
Kagerous read felt more like my name was thrown in there for the out of the box factor, because that’s just what townies do.
Dai felt more upset that I was being considered townie for doing nothing and I could see that as more scum frustration. So could I can see multiple worlds there.
I don’t think they are together.
Seems a pretty clear pocket attempt though of course I'm biased, the "i want to know why you feel that way" having the effect of making my predecessor do work to earn Larva's trust. The fact it ends with vting Dai but going "eh, I could do Kagerou maybe" isIn post 329, Eternity Larva wrote: i guess i'd join a Kagerou wagon too but i think that read deserves more thought and reevaluation than i am currently capable ofnoted.In post 6240, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote: Ah shit I think I know who Kaguya's main is.
My posts in that timeframe:In post 6242, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:
Given the timing and positioning of this it feels pretty unaligning. Possible Larva was attempting to bus and failing but given threadstate it feels pretty pivotal - momentum on Kagerou was real enough, bussing would be a conscious choice where from what I gather Larva had enough influence they could have pressured elsewhere. I think the general noncommittal nature of the push is setting up for it being a town flip - in general I'd expect a bus to show a little higher confidence level than what was shown.In post 388, Eternity Larva wrote: i will be fairly inactive through Monday, other than a few opportunities to post here and there
i plan to reread the game upon my return because i am concerned i have too many townreads and the people i've been not-town reading keep saying things that make me doubt myself which is annoying
i am feeling good about Clownpiece, Sanae, and Marisa for town, in that order
Ichirin is also close to this tier but not quite to the level of the three listed above, for the townie reaction to their wagon that Koishi is still desperately trying to get me to concede could come from scum
i am leaning town on Yuuka still but to be fair this read probably deserves more in depth reevaluation
Tenshi had a solid and imo townie defense to some pressure earlier but has done next to nothing since, so gun-to-head town but i will need more from her to cement that one way or another
Kaguya, Reisen, and Aya are slots i feel nothing about and will be one of my focuses upon reread. i will say i had even had some townpings from Reisen and Aya but nothing strong enough in either direction to make me commit
Dai and Koishi continue to mirror each other when it comes to how i feel about them, as indicated preivously, their early questions and one-off posts came across as surface level and a way to look engaged with the game without contributing anything. however Koishi has dulled that suspicion a bit with our interaction about Ichirin (even though i am growing irritated with being asked the same question in different ways over and over again >_<).
on a similar note i thought Dai's most recent post was great and conveyed the thoughts i found difficult to articulate about Kagerou. basically Koishi and Dai's body of work overall leans scum, but there have been a couple glimmers of towny-ness that shake my confidence
My only fairly solid scum read at this point is Kagerou and even that's pretty...loose? there are some posts that made me feel good on a tone level but i agree with Dai about the bulk of the ISO is pretty fluffy and i see Kagerou has over fifty posts but their actual impact this game does not at all correlate with what i expect based on their high level of activity
from what i can tell there also hasn't been much in terms of reads outside of the Clownpiece scum read (i now see the reads list provided with some interesting takes that i will look into more when i return) which she pretty much refused to elaborate on, and the reasoning she did provide also never sat well with me to begin with and came from the first page. it's difficult for me to buy that into the fact that her opinion on Clownpiece has not changed or evolved since the beginning of the game, especially since Clownpiece is my largest town read, which leads me to believe she is just holding onto it because she needs a strong opinion that goes against the grain
those are all my thoughts for now, please feel free to poke at or ask questions about anything. i am thinking this will be a game where i focus on identifying and locking in town reads and just pushing to eliminate within 'what's left'
VOTE: Kagerou Imaizumi
Only note of hesitation is that if I'm right on Kaguya they'd absolutely bus a partner in that spot on Day 1. But most wouldn't. That's WIFOM at best though.
Got to admit 385 is a big oof regardless of alignment, but. Most scum aren't usually that bold with their reads. One of those cases where having meta would be a significant help.
In post 339, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
I believe the youngsters these days would describe this as "absolutely cooked"In post 92, Kagerou Imaizumi wrote: The Kagerou Townblock Trio :
Marisa / Kaguya / Reisen
i swear i have my reasons
I can count on one hand the number of games here where people actually use the scum chat enough for this to have happenedIn post 111, Yuuka Kazami wrote:Their scum partners would explain what clownpiece was talking about.
In post 340, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
I thought sie mixed up Clownpieces name randomization talk with the "Do you want a full random name vs randomized from your choices" from pregame but on reread that's not actually what happenedIn post 197, Clownpiece wrote: I am ~fine~ with Kaguya's iso.
Their progression on Tenshi feels in line with my own, although their vote and unvote both come after other people either started pushing there or started unvoting, so its worth a little less then general.
Although
Kaguya, what about Ichirin's posts at this point did you like?In post 44, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I like Ichirins postsIn post 341, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Liking Koishi on page 9 and Aya's roleplaying has already pocketed meIn post 342, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Koishi's probably townIn post 343, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I have reason to believe Dai is townIn post 379, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
I contracted touchgrassitis, Eirin says it's permanentIn post 348, Ichirin Kumoi wrote: And hey, here's Kaguya, so it CLEARLY did something.In post 382, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
Marisa/Sanae hood, not Marisa/KaguyaIn post 381, Kagerou Imaizumi wrote: also about the Marisa / Kaguya hood, how substantially have you talked in it Kaguya?
Those posts have the stylistic tell if you're looking for it and given she's correctly calling out my max scumrange I'm forced to conclude she knows who I amIn post 384, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: I feel like most of the chaos this game can be attributed to people mixing up names-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I'm not interested in sorting out the why of these feelings beyond what they imply for Reisens alignment which is that whenever I've had this feeling of "OMGUS that I have to actively suppress to try and get a read" it's been scumIn post 6320, Yuuka Kazami wrote:
Why do you want to kill new Reisen more than old Reisen?In post 6260, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
Yuuka: new baseline. I think like 65+%ish of my townread on you comes from just existing more compared to Reisen/Kagerou. New Reisen I want to kill more than before but there's a level of OMGUS there that I'm gonna need to sort outIn post 6182, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Like this isn't working for me at least, I need to talk to the other two to get a baseline
Are you gunna sort that out
I recognise this isn't a very persuasive reason but it is a more reliable tell compared to the pushable stuff that actually lets me get people killed-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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The "I don't want to clear Kagerou because Kaguya would absolutely hard bus her partner in the first 15 pages of the game" partIn post 6323, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Where’s she calling out your max scum range?
They said you were good scum but I don’t remember them saying you had a maximum scum range you exceeded it, I just remember that *you* said that.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Like all of the individual tells (Stylistic tell, Good scum play, Known busser) apply to a lot of people individually; it's just that all of them together the venn diagram is a point instead of an area-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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In post 6327, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:
I don't know. I have no idea why you're scumreading my slot aside from inactivity (I assume), and it's not like I'm reading my predecessor's ISO to see how you would be reading it. Even if I were to put myself in your shoes I am biased by knwing my own role PM so that doesn't work. I'm not gonna argue you should be reading Kagerou as more town than me because. well. I am town. So I can't actually go anywhere with this hypothetical unless you're asking me to towncase myself to you but that is obviously not really possible for me.In post 6300, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
Ok then pretend it's Goon + Traitor and I just IC'd. I'm basically asking if you'd give a Yuuka/Reisen solve if you replaced into my slotIn post 6278, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:
What does this even mean? If I'm mafia then I know who my teammates are, this is a nonsense question.In post 6261, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Kagerou townreaders: pretend you're maf and you know I'm town. Is Kagerou still town in that world?
Like, in the event you are town and Kagerou is scum then I guess I am just skill issued and jumping to bad conclusions but it does not actually change anything about my alignment.In post 5842, Kaguya Houraisan wrote:
I already did, she's scum by POE cause normally I'd throw her in the "Not bad" pile but there's two scum here and not enough room for her to be town if you're also TownIn post 5840, Yuuka Kazami wrote: Well my votes slaved. So technically it does not matter. But I’d really appreciate a look at Reisen.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Reisen is that a yes or a no to the question of if your solve would be Yuuka/Reisen if you replaced into my slot. GTH read, I will take the bias-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I'm scumreading Kagerou and need external validation to tell if I'm being skill issued or if I'm experiencing the internal machinations of the universe to see through Kagerou where no one else can-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Are you willing to bet the game on Kagerou being town yes or noIn post 6332, Reisen Udongein Inaba wrote:
Shrug. I guess. If my predecessor really was underwhelming I get why people would be scumreading my slot.In post 6330, Kaguya Houraisan wrote: Reisen is that a yes or a no to the question of if your solve would be Yuuka/Reisen if you replaced into my slot. GTH read, I will take the bias
So what's your point?-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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I could lie and do some of that talking stuff to look like I have a nuanced read if you want but those are completely useless to me because my accuracy with the thinky is worse than my accuracy with the feely and my feely is telling me Reisen is scumIn post 6333, Yuuka Kazami wrote: That really is the extent of it and no matter how many times I pester them for more they won’t give it to me. :<
Well, except just now. When they kind of threw out a theory on the different types of omgus and yours is bad while I guess mine isn’t bad.-
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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Kaguya Houraisan Goon
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