Mini 2331 - Touhou UPick: Anonymous Edition (Game Over)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

No I know what a Skinner Box is I just don't get what you're saying

[Kaguya Houraisan]

This game really is just procrastination city

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Reisen. Scum.

Kaguya = Kagerou.

Yep!

That feels wrong but I don't have time to figure out why

Gonna try to put this into words. If you think Reisen is always scum here and that Reisen flipping scum tips the scales towards me flipping scum then how is it possible for Kagerou and I to be in the same tier here

Can you answer this btw

[Kaguya Houraisan]

So basically an individual solve of "Kagerou is the likeliest to flip scum" and a team solve of "Kaguya/Reisen is the likeliest team"

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like my issue here is specifically that you had Reisen listed as your TOP scumread while having a mountain of reasons to scumread Kagerou because it just reads like a Reisen bus

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like my issue here is specifically that you had Reisen listed as your TOP scumread while having a mountain of reasons to scumread Kagerou because it just reads like a Reisen bus

Are you certain this is an issue. You’re focused on a nuanced as hell read, in a land of a bunch of reads and posts I’ve made. It feels like you’re wasting your own time.

It's an issue because if Reisen is scum she's verifiably getting bussed since everyone is scumreading her. That's what's putting me on the "figure out who's bussing" path. I associate having an oversized scumread compared to the given reasoning as a sign of bussing

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You’re not bussing her.

Yeah and I'm town so what's your point

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Has Kagerou dropped reasonings for her other reads yet I legit forgot

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Has Kagerou dropped reasonings for her other reads yet I legit forgot

Actually no we're both getting sidetracked from the meat of the argument. It's not about the quality of your Reisen read compared to Kagerou or mines Reisen read. It's about the quality of your Reisen read compared to the quality of your Kagerou read

[Kaguya Houraisan]

well and your Kaguya read too but there's not as much comparison to be made there

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Rn though, I just think it’s contrived.

I mean maybe? This is pretty much just the boil over from pages of mounting "something's wrong" gutfeel and I'm essentially playing Marco Polo trying to figure out the source

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Another thing that just bothered me about Kaguya, albeit they called it being side tracked is that, essentially, they really haven't looked at how each player is bussing Reisen, because, as they say, from their perspective one scum is bussing Reisen, they only got around to it now and are pushing me while giving Kagerou a pass and also not really commenting much on what Reisen is doing.

My general aversion to re-reads makes this very hard and whenever possible I prefer to livechat over re-read. You're here, Reisen and Kagerou aren't so this is the natural result of that

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Yuuka if you're town I unironically think it might be optimal for the both of us to stop posting until Reisen and Kagerou get back to playing this game

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like this isn't working for me at least, I need to talk to the other two to get a baseline

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'll be back later tonight.

Aya, can you bold anything relevant?

Are you following my plan?

I want to understand everything I did before I act.

What happened to this

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'll be back later tonight.

Aya, can you bold anything relevant?

Are you following my plan?

Plan?

For the record, I am going along with Aya decides the lim. I'm not sure it's the best.

Aya picks one of us to vote first instead. That's a 50% chance to hit scum. Then, even if wrong, a town would have a 2/3 chance of hitting scum at random.

Once the 1 v 1 is declared, then Aya picks the lim with input.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Yuuka if you're town I unironically think it might be optimal for the both of us to stop posting until Reisen and Kagerou get back to playing this game

Freezing my read of you at a low point is bold of you. Are you sure we cannot find each other just by talking forever and ever?
Because I have faith I can just find you if I just keep on keeping on.

One last snipe but

You'll notice that if I had made up my mind, I wouldn't have changed my mind.
From Dai scum to dai town.
From you scum, to you town, to you scum, to you town, to you scum.
From kagerou town to kagerou scum to kagerou town to kagerou scum to kagerou weird.
From Reisen town, to Reisen scum.

It's weird.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Are you saying I'll change my mind forever, or are you going to do a deep dive and try to figure out where I changed my mind in each particular instance?

The former lol

[Kaguya Houraisan]

If Kagerou's next posting spree once again ignores questions directed at her I will unironically instavote her in 3p

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Well don't keep us hanging

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Wow she's actually gonna keep us hanging. Hurt, shocked, betrayed

[Kaguya Houraisan]

This game really is just procrastination city

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'm getting way too much use out of that post

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'm getting tired of waiting for stuff to happen this game. Aya if your kill today is Reisen can you just speed things along and save GIF the trouble of finding a replacement to a 250 page uPick?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

ooh spicy

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Wait no actually this is too spicy since you're townreading Kagerou so you're either voting me (wrong) or voting Yuuka (also probably wrong)

[Kaguya Houraisan]

It's amazing how half the playerlist is active enough to instantly livechat while the other half keeps getting replaced for inactivity

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Thou Shalt Not Meta

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'm getting tired of waiting for stuff to happen this game. Aya if your kill today is Reisen can you just speed things along and save GIF the trouble of finding a replacement to a 250 page uPick?

Will say in particular though that this feels like someone who is anxious to accelerate the day and end the game and doesn't want a replacement coming in and creating problems for them. I know my predecessor targeted them with their spellcard to make them self target, but yeah. Gut ping.

I'm pocketing GIF by saving them from hard work

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I wasn't expecting to even recognize anyone but it just sort of happened and it's going to be coloring my read because I think they're an extremely capable scum player.

If you know my main you'd also know I'm very obviously in my townrange and outside my scumrange

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I simultaneously want to get into meta reads with Reisen but also don't

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I wasn't expecting to even recognize anyone but it just sort of happened and it's going to be coloring my read because I think they're an extremely capable scum player.

If you know my main you'd also know I'm very obviously in my townrange and outside my scumrange

this after "thou shalt not meta" is hysterical

also i want to murder you for saying this

shush I'm having an under the table convo with Reisen, what would be the point of simultaneously playing to a town meta while also heavily obfuscating my main

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I wasn't expecting to even recognize anyone but it just sort of happened and it's going to be coloring my read because I think they're an extremely capable scum player.

That’s interesting since if you play mafia much on this site you’re probably going to notice some distinctive posting.

I’m surprised you could figure out who Kaguya was given they kept it all to mech speculation and no one, on this website, does it quite that way to knowledge. Maybe they dropped a catch phrase or something very common to them that I missed.

This feels unnatural.

Stylistic tell and I'm annoyed that it got picked up

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like this isn't working for me at least, I need to talk to the other two to get a baseline

Yuuka: new baseline. I think like 65+%ish of my townread on you comes from just existing more compared to Reisen/Kagerou. New Reisen I want to kill more than before but there's a level of OMGUS there that I'm gonna need to sort out

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kagerou townreaders: pretend you're maf and you know I'm town. Is Kagerou still town in that world?

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Also, ‘very good scum player’ with player you think correctly meta read you and ‘I’m out of my scum range’ doth not compute.

I'm very easy to activity read if I'm not actively putting in effort to play to my meta because my scum games are consistently high effort while my town games are only high effort when needed. I wasn't expecting to get mainread this easily so as scum I'd be taking the extra thread control by being active D1/D2 instead of playing to a meta I wouldn't be expecting to need to play to

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Are you certain they even correctly identified you.

I can tell which posts triggered the recognition based off of the quote numbers in between and they're correctly calling me out as someone that'd bus on d1 in a way that'd make it hard to clear Kagerou from their perspective. They know who I am

[Kaguya Houraisan]

You weren’t expecting to get main read after 800 posts? By a replace in?

Not within my first 20 posts no

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Ughhhh

Aya I just want you to know I'm enjoying your suffering, it's very funny

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Will you enjoy it when I kill you? Lmfao

That'd make it even funnier

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Why did you think unnatural was short for lie?

I also thought you were saying Reisen was lying there

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kagerou townreaders: pretend you're maf and you know I'm town. Is Kagerou still town in that world?

What does this even mean? If I'm mafia then I know who my teammates are, this is a nonsense question.

Ok then pretend it's Goon + Traitor and I just IC'd. I'm basically asking if you'd give a Yuuka/Reisen solve if you replaced into my slot

[Kaguya Houraisan]

But yeah, true, unless you’re doing it on purpose to get identified that’s very fast.

Yeah and after that I'd have the benefit of obfuscating my main by focusing on mech

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Further than all that, I can see how the dynamic is shaping up, I can see how both of you are reacting to my posting and that gives me more data to work with and it's kind of exactly what I'd expect if I'm the necessary miselim for scum here. Maybe that's a bit too much of a martyr complex and Kagerou hasn't posted, but more or less when I replace into a slot like this I expect to get jumped on by scum because they're looking to suffocate me and don't want me posting my way out of the hole I'm in

If I wanted you dead here I could have easily just gone "" to Aya going "I wanna kill Reisen" instead of pushing Kagerou

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I also thought you were saying Reisen was lying there

But y tho.

idk it's just how I read the post

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Make no mistake, my notes are full of meta spec, but I kept it out of the game because *you can’t talk about it* but you did talk about it and then can’t proceed further and you can’t talk about it.

I have meta'd 0 people this game, even when they altslipped or when they practically announced their main.

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Long line is long.
I meant using your understanding of a player to make a read, meta, not “I shall identify their main and then go read up on their games” meta.

The only person I recognised is Clownpiece V2

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I know what I wanna do but I want a Wolfie back to finalize my thoughts tbh.

*One week later*

[Kaguya Houraisan]

It's true!

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I unironically only recognised Clownpiece V2 this game

[Kaguya Houraisan]

16 hours until the search for the new Kagerou starts, place your bets on how quick the process will be

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Are you certain they even correctly identified you.

I can tell which posts triggered the recognition based off of the quote numbers in between and they're correctly calling me out as someone that'd bus on d1 in a way that'd make it hard to clear Kagerou from their perspective. They know who I am

I went back because I figured you were talking about some quotes Reisen posted that I had missed, but nope. None indicate they have much of an opinion on you besides they think they know who your main is. You are saying that, based on your estimate of where their reread, that you predict they found the posts that you personally find to be characteristic of your main. that they didn’t post or point to. *psyduck*

Reisen posts indicating where to look:

Reisen can you elaborate on your 'ew' pile? Our reads seem to align in that regard but i want to know why you feel that way

Reisen can you elaborate on your 'ew' pile? Our reads seem to align in that regard but i want to know why you feel that way

They aren’t going to be for the same reasons cuz I’m super selfish and the world revolves around me but.

I thought kagerou putting me in their town core off just my ascetic claim was super weird. Marisa piggybacked on but I get their mindset because I’m also predisposed to town reading lighthearted jokey slots especially early in games. So reads genuine.

Kagerous read felt more like my name was thrown in there for the out of the box factor, because that’s just what townies do.

Dai felt more upset that I was being considered townie for doing nothing and I could see that as more scum frustration. So could I can see multiple worlds there.

I don’t think they are together.

i guess i'd join a Kagerou wagon too but i think that read deserves more thought and reevaluation than i am currently capable of

Seems a pretty clear pocket attempt though of course I'm biased, the "i want to know why you feel that way" having the effect of making my predecessor do work to earn Larva's trust. The fact it ends with vting Dai but going "eh, I could do Kagerou maybe" is

noted

.

Ah shit I think I know who Kaguya's main is.

i will be fairly inactive through Monday, other than a few opportunities to post here and there

i plan to reread the game upon my return because i am concerned i have too many townreads and the people i've been not-town reading keep saying things that make me doubt myself which is annoying

i am feeling good about Clownpiece, Sanae, and Marisa for town, in that order

Ichirin is also close to this tier but not quite to the level of the three listed above, for the townie reaction to their wagon that Koishi is still desperately trying to get me to concede could come from scum

i am leaning town on Yuuka still but to be fair this read probably deserves more in depth reevaluation

Tenshi had a solid and imo townie defense to some pressure earlier but has done next to nothing since, so gun-to-head town but i will need more from her to cement that one way or another

Kaguya, Reisen, and Aya are slots i feel nothing about and will be one of my focuses upon reread. i will say i had even had some townpings from Reisen and Aya but nothing strong enough in either direction to make me commit

Dai and Koishi continue to mirror each other when it comes to how i feel about them, as indicated preivously, their early questions and one-off posts came across as surface level and a way to look engaged with the game without contributing anything. however Koishi has dulled that suspicion a bit with our interaction about Ichirin (even though i am growing irritated with being asked the same question in different ways over and over again >_<).

on a similar note i thought Dai's most recent post was great and conveyed the thoughts i found difficult to articulate about Kagerou. basically Koishi and Dai's body of work overall leans scum, but there have been a couple glimmers of towny-ness that shake my confidence

My only fairly solid scum read at this point is Kagerou and even that's pretty...loose? there are some posts that made me feel good on a tone level but i agree with Dai about the bulk of the ISO is pretty fluffy and i see Kagerou has over fifty posts but their actual impact this game does not at all correlate with what i expect based on their high level of activity

from what i can tell there also hasn't been much in terms of reads outside of the Clownpiece scum read (i now see the reads list provided with some interesting takes that i will look into more when i return) which she pretty much refused to elaborate on, and the reasoning she did provide also never sat well with me to begin with and came from the first page. it's difficult for me to buy that into the fact that her opinion on Clownpiece has not changed or evolved since the beginning of the game, especially since Clownpiece is my largest town read, which leads me to believe she is just holding onto it because she needs a strong opinion that goes against the grain

those are all my thoughts for now, please feel free to poke at or ask questions about anything. i am thinking this will be a game where i focus on identifying and locking in town reads and just pushing to eliminate within 'what's left'

VOTE: Kagerou Imaizumi

Given the timing and positioning of this it feels pretty unaligning. Possible Larva was attempting to bus and failing but given threadstate it feels pretty pivotal - momentum on Kagerou was real enough, bussing would be a conscious choice where from what I gather Larva had enough influence they could have pressured elsewhere. I think the general noncommittal nature of the push is setting up for it being a town flip - in general I'd expect a bus to show a little higher confidence level than what was shown.

Only note of hesitation is that if I'm right on Kaguya they'd absolutely bus a partner in that spot on Day 1. But most wouldn't. That's WIFOM at best though.

Got to admit 385 is a big oof regardless of alignment, but. Most scum aren't usually that bold with their reads. One of those cases where having meta would be a significant help.

My posts in that timeframe:

The Kagerou Townblock Trio :

Marisa / Kaguya / Reisen

i swear i have my reasons

I believe the youngsters these days would describe this as "absolutely cooked"

Also you're probably

not

in the scum PT

?

Their scum partners would explain what clownpiece was talking about.

I can count on one hand the number of games here where people actually use the scum chat enough for this to have happened

I am ~fine~ with Kaguya's iso.

Their progression on Tenshi feels in line with my own, although their vote and unvote both come after other people either started pushing there or started unvoting, so its worth a little less then general.

Although

I like Ichirins posts

Kaguya, what about Ichirin's posts at this point did you like?

I thought sie mixed up Clownpieces name randomization talk with the "Do you want a full random name vs randomized from your choices" from pregame but on reread that's not actually what happened

Liking Koishi on page 9 and Aya's roleplaying has already pocketed me

Koishi's probably town

I have reason to believe Dai is town

VOTE: Kagerou

And hey, here's Kaguya, so it CLEARLY did something.

I contracted touchgrassitis, Eirin says it's permanent

also about the Marisa / Kaguya hood, how substantially have you talked in it Kaguya?

Marisa/Sanae hood, not Marisa/Kaguya

I feel like most of the chaos this game can be attributed to people mixing up names

Those posts have the stylistic tell if you're looking for it and given she's correctly calling out my max scumrange I'm forced to conclude she knows who I am

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like this isn't working for me at least, I need to talk to the other two to get a baseline

Yuuka: new baseline. I think like 65+%ish of my townread on you comes from just existing more compared to Reisen/Kagerou. New Reisen I want to kill more than before but there's a level of OMGUS there that I'm gonna need to sort out

Why do you want to kill new Reisen more than old Reisen?

Are you gunna sort that out

I'm not interested in sorting out the why of these feelings beyond what they imply for Reisens alignment which is that whenever I've had this feeling of "OMGUS that I have to actively suppress to try and get a read" it's been scum

I recognise this isn't a very persuasive reason but it is a more reliable tell compared to the pushable stuff that actually lets me get people killed

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Where’s she calling out your max scum range?
They said you were good scum but I don’t remember them saying you had a maximum scum range you exceeded it, I just remember that *you* said that.

The "I don't want to clear Kagerou because Kaguya would absolutely hard bus her partner in the first 15 pages of the game" part

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Like all of the individual tells (Stylistic tell, Good scum play, Known busser) apply to a lot of people individually; it's just that all of them together the venn diagram is a point instead of an area

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Kagerou townreaders: pretend you're maf and you know I'm town. Is Kagerou still town in that world?

What does this even mean? If I'm mafia then I know who my teammates are, this is a nonsense question.

Ok then pretend it's Goon + Traitor and I just IC'd. I'm basically asking if you'd give a Yuuka/Reisen solve if you replaced into my slot

I don't know. I have no idea why you're scumreading my slot aside from inactivity (I assume), and it's not like I'm reading my predecessor's ISO to see how you would be reading it. Even if I were to put myself in your shoes I am biased by knwing my own role PM so that doesn't work. I'm not gonna argue you should be reading Kagerou as more town than me because. well. I am town. So I can't actually go anywhere with this hypothetical unless you're asking me to towncase myself to you but that is obviously not really possible for me.

Like, in the event you are town and Kagerou is scum then I guess I am just skill issued and jumping to bad conclusions but it does not actually change anything about my alignment.

Well my votes slaved. So technically it does not matter. But I’d really appreciate a look at Reisen.

I already did, she's scum by POE cause normally I'd throw her in the "Not bad" pile but there's two scum here and not enough room for her to be town if you're also Town

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Reisen is that a yes or a no to the question of if your solve would be Yuuka/Reisen if you replaced into my slot. GTH read, I will take the bias

[Kaguya Houraisan]

I'm scumreading Kagerou and need external validation to tell if I'm being skill issued or if I'm experiencing the internal machinations of the universe to see through Kagerou where no one else can

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Reisen is that a yes or a no to the question of if your solve would be Yuuka/Reisen if you replaced into my slot. GTH read, I will take the bias

Shrug. I guess. If my predecessor really was underwhelming I get why people would be scumreading my slot.

So what's your point?

Are you willing to bet the game on Kagerou being town yes or no

[Kaguya Houraisan]

That really is the extent of it and no matter how many times I pester them for more they won’t give it to me. :<

Well, except just now. When they kind of threw out a theory on the different types of omgus and yours is bad while I guess mine isn’t bad.

I could lie and do some of that talking stuff to look like I have a nuanced read if you want but those are completely useless to me because my accuracy with the thinky is worse than my accuracy with the feely and my feely is telling me Reisen is scum

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Notes PT

wp to town for getting their act together at the end there

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Even in a role-madness, a night action should not have so much power that it basically neutralizes Scum running circles around Town for four in-game days...

That's just the charm of rolling scum in role madness; the punishment for messing up mech is an instant loss and your reward for navigating the minefield correctly is that you get to play a mostly vanilla game

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Interesting that there was only one alt slip the entire game

We did it by putting all our other accounts to mafBlack so that it'd be really obvious if we're not posting on the right account

[Kaguya Houraisan]

Oh, and I'm sorry for my behavior this game. I need to learn not to snap at people or belittle them just because I'm frustrated, confused, or want them to show me that they're town.

just for the record: it's all good. i wasn't

truly

offended by what you said, i was scum, but i was playing the part and it would have offended me as town so i responded that way. i didn't really think my approach to the day through, just went with it at the spur of the mooment. i don't know why, i knew you weren't going to get swayed by AtE.

but yeah. while i think it's kind of rude i had no real reason to take offense. just wanted to clear that up.

(also, i had no idea who Kaguya was, i was talking out my ass, just felt like a thing to post to fake an "aha!" moment. which had the opposite effect of what i intended, but so it goes).

We legit thought we were outed cause those posts were so obviously us and you had us pegged so hard on our scumgame