Mini 739 ~ Mafia Jailbreak, Game Over

[Jahudo]

/confirm

3) Voting: Votes should be in bold in order for them to count, for instance:

Vote: Prof. Guppy

.

This made me laugh

Vote: Rhinox

because people from Cleveland are obvscum

[Jahudo]

Randomly deciding not to vote yet.

This is different from deciding not to random vote yet, right? Did you use a dice or something where one side was "no vote yet"?

[Jahudo]

As far as anything else regarding how I specifically try to recognize sk's, I'd rather not say so I don't tell any sk in this game exactly how not to act.

I think this is a good response to bionic's question and probably a safer move in case there is an SK looking for advice.

Much in the same manner as a RV, I saw it as a discussion starter.

It looks like an innocent discussion starter to me.

For me, scum is scum but it would be nice to get rid of a killing faction earlier than later. We may know what we've dealing with after the first night but until then it might be counter-productive to speculate into the semi-open setup.

Selective scumhunting, that's a buzzword..

I don't think I've heard the phrase "selective scumhunting" in a game, though I can infer what it's about. Do you think it is a bad thing to use buzzwords?

The spread on the "my wine" gains looks something like:
Mafia: +++
Town: +
SK: ----

What do the +'s and -'s mean? Is the wine more likely to lean to the +'s, or are the +'s indications of how the WIFOM helps each faction?

[Jahudo]

@Korts: After re-reading BC's post, do you still think that BC acknowledged or inferred that parts or the whole of the SK discussion was counter-productive? Does that affect BC's intention of the selective scumhunting event?

Korts excusing himself by saying "Oh, I skimmed" seems off. He's showing a lack of willing to stand by his statements in the face of criticism, which suggests he wants to avoid attention.

At first glance it sounds honest to me since the previous sentence appears to backoff from the point (sorry about that) and acknowledge a mistake has been made in reading (I read the following as…).

Huntress is being an annoying hairsplitter right now. "i never said i don't want to random vote, i just didn't. I never said I won't random vote, just not right now”.

Where did this first hairsplitter take place? I didn’t read it that way. Maybe Huntress can elaborate on how random her decisions have been so far because this:

Yet my non-vote has caused more discussion so far than any vote.

She acknowledges the power of not random voting in creating discussion, which sound to me like something she knew about going into the game. So was this in fact a reason? Her initial claim to not random vote was not about reason or purpose according to her.

What makes you think I don't want to random vote?

I wonder if this can even be accomplished before long because we are moving to serious discussion and a random/joke action could try to impede that.

I don't know why Korts is voting me, i thought we were all trying to start discussion. Wasn't he the one saying one can even resort to jokes to get discussion going? I couldn't think of anything funny.

Post 43 does not mean anything to me since it’s just one fluff post, but a player that continually acts disengaged will look anti-town even if they’re making discussion through jokes or theory or setup speculation.

[Jahudo]

@popsofctown

Sorry, I'll try to make it clear, i know it sucks to be misquoted... I thought the exaggeration/parody was clear enough though.

If it’s an exaggeration do you still think it was an accurate representation to what she was thinking? Where did you get the first part of the interpretation from:

"i never said i don't want to random vote, i just didn't.”

I can’t find her version of saying that.

@RedCoyote

I forget sometimes that I don't have to lecture anyone at MS.

What does this mean? Do you think that someone trying to teach the game while they’re playing means something about themselves?

If you are going to tell me with a straight face, based on those role possibilities, that we should assume there isn't an SK, then I absolutely have to snicker.

Vi probably knows how roles complement each other but we, the players, do not know how Vi decided on the roles. It’s trying to outguess the mod to think that something is a random choice or not, or an obvious choice or not. That’s what I think you are doing here.

@OGML

Korts, throwing the book as in, your response seemed to be almost automated. "You have made a move that I consider to be standard-scum-play so here is my standard-response-vote!" It was like you didn't even consider the surroundings of pops' post, or weigh whether or not it really hinted at his alignment, you just went OMG SCUMTELL.

I don’t think that was a heavy book. Pops made a joke along with his post for the sake of posting. Korts responded with a “Shame” that felt less serious because it did not have a serious explanation to go with the vote and make it more serious than the offense itself. To me, the punishment (vote) fit the offense (joke).

@Rishi

I didn’t say the entire beginning game conversation was about nothing. But, considering we’ve had four pages and some very long posts, there’s a lot less content than it would seem.

You still said there was a whole lot of nothing and you mean content, so do you think people are making mountains out of moth hills (or however the phrase goes) with the suspicions on the first three pages?

@Rhinox

What about my vote makes you call it a "policy vote"?

In a similar vein, saying that you would always vote a self-voter is a policy that might allow you to look past the specific situation in your rationalizing a vote. If you’re not judging as each situation allows itself, it looks like the vote is more important than the tell.

Add in my general dislike of pops WIFOM post analyzing bio

I don’t know what to think of his post analysis but for now I don’t think it’s scummy.

I'm really playing like a (Village) Idiot this game... lame, but true excuse

This just feels unnatural to me because it looks preemptive. I don’t think anyone was questioning your ability in which you would have to explain yourself, so I don’t know why you did. Can you take the heat? Do you think it’s undeserved?

@SpyreX

At this point, the others near them start talking about salt and all other salt-related mishaps

I understand your concern but do you think that salt has already been spilled? I don’t think anyone has undeserved attention on them.

[Jahudo]

I don't mind how the vote count is now. It's easily understandable to me.

Not quite sure exactly what you're saying here... can you rephrase for me before I attempt to answer? I don't see a correlation between my policy voting of self voters, and my rationalization (albeit, bad) for voting pops earlier.

I am only relating it because you said you would always vote self-voters. I think that by acting through policy you are not looking at the individual situation because your suspicion and rationalization was there before a player committed the self-vote. Even if you have a meta on a scumtell, there are always exceptions. By not looking at the individual situation, it tells me you are more concerned with putting a vote on the board than finding a way to prevent it.

In a practical application for our current situation, it may be that you rushed into the pops vote because it looked like something you had seen before and inherently knew to respond with a vote. But I don't know how strong your suspicions are. And, it looks like you gave some critical analysis by asking questions.

Also, I need clarification for why OGML FoS'ed you in post 86. In post 92 he called you out for policy voting but the quote he selected was you responded to pops's riddles and that seems unrelated to me.

I don't think its pre-emptive... I've been caught twice being contradictory WRT my vote on pops. The heat is not undeserved... My explanation for it (that I'd been playing like an idiot) was the result of being asked directly about my contradictions... so whats premature about it?

That's true that you had to alter your statements but I don't think you needed to apologize or give an excuse. You trying to diffuse the situation while you had, what 2 votes?, only makes me look more carefully at what you're trying to move past.

[Jahudo]

I was just in a game where we did hypo(thetical) claiming letting everyone know who we would visit if we were so-and-so role. Everyone did it and we came up with an interesting system for doing so.

I don’t really see the benefit since everyone would be lying part of the time and scum could lie just as easily here IMO.

There was some long posts on non-issues (and I don't have time to look back right now to give you specifics, but I can do this later if you want)

If you are referring to SK theorizing then I can see the connection in your opinion on that in other posts I guess.

"i never said i don't want to random vote, i just didn't.”

What makes you think I don't want to random vote?

I see it now. Huntress never said “I just didn’t”, but it’s implied she knew she didn’t. Anyway, I agree that discussion concerning Huntress and her own contribution should move past this RVS event because I don’t think there’s anymore to be gained and she should catchup in other areas of discussion.

Also, I've gotten nothing from how people have acted towards MME in his absense so I don't think there's any bussing or distancing going on. Since he didn't say anything I don't think bussing or distancing would appear substantial enough to make any difference. But he should contribute more too.

Basically, you're saying that because I say in some situations that I vote strictly out of policy, that means in all situations I must base my vote on a policy without considering context (i.e. Good townie book says Action A is scummy, always vote when a player performs action A).

I did not try to correlate them as a fact for your gaming all the time, I just wanted to investigate it in this instance. I also said in that same post that there were factors going against this conclusion. You asked questions and your suspicion might not have been that strong as we are not that far into the game. But I do think that you may have leapt into the vote and it could have been a decision that was made by conventional wisdom as opposed to your own feelings.

First thing, this is something you shuld be able to easily verify or disprove by looking at my past games and seeing if thats how I act. You were in 2 or 3 of my 6 completed games, so it shouldn't be too hard to do.

Possibly. I’ll look into it if I think you are doing it later in the game when the stakes are higher.

even if you found that all of my votes seemed based on some idea of a by the book policy, would that say anything about my allignment?

The attitude you take into follow up questions and suspicions would tell me more.

Its the nature of the game to be suspicious of everyone until we are given definitive reasons to believe otherwise.

How would you define scummy to go along with your usage of suspicious here?

[Jahudo]

@Huntress: What in your post 161 would you count against Coyote that supports your vote on him?

I'm giving specific attention to Rishi because he has no vote right now

That sounds legit to me though I don’t see why he couldn’t have asked the other non-voters at the same time.

I don’t think pops is purposely ignoring anyone like Spyrex. Like he said there’s 12 players and I don’ think there’s been enough pages of discussion for a sample size of distancing.

To arbitrarily say that all SK talk on Day 1 is useless without any regard for the implications it might have later in the game sounds naive to me.

Did Rhinox say this thing that you think is naïve? Did he imply it?

I wanted to excuse myself mainly because I do think stating the obvious is a versatile tell.

Can you explain versatile tell?

do you think a good scum player would make the obvious mistake that I made?

That sounds like your using its obviousness as a defense. What is obvious about it that scum are not expected to make it? Couldn’t both scum and town accidentally make it?

Unfortunately for me, there just hasn't been enough time for ANYONE to have stacked up a mountain of overwhelming town play... if you guys quicklynch me, that won't change.

I think you are misreading the groups sentiment to your wagon. I don’t think anyone has been saying lynch yet.

However, I will say that I've been trying something new in some of my games that hasn't exactly been working... I feel as a town player, I should always be able to identify who is "scummiest". As such, I should always be able to place my vote for who I feel is scummiest.

Okay, that actually explains and rationalizes the vote you made. I accept that you want to have transparency in showing your top suspect even if the reason is small, like at the start of a game.

Although I think the SK talk is becoming a sticky point, what about this focus is scummy?

There might be room for a contradiction to take place later on in the game but right now it looks like swapping ideas on strategy and theory but not helping us find scum.

[Jahudo]

Are you making the case that Spy is more guilty of the problems he has with pops than pops is?

No. The "like Spyrex" in my sentence refers to people that pops could be ignoring. I don’t think Spyrex is guilty of ignoring people. And I’ll chalk it down when someone needs to be reminded about a question but keep up with other current discussions. Sometimes people just miss a question directed at them among the walls of text. If it becomes a habit or they are missing big bolded text, for instance, then it becomes more questionable.

And then, pops forgets a question directed at him in post 172.

To arbitrarily say that all SK talk on Day 1 is useless without any regard for the implications it might have later in the game sounds naive to me.

Did Rhinox say this thing that you think is naïve? Did he imply it?

Absolutely he did.

I don’t see it anywhere. In post 45 he says that no conversations are useless as long as they are mafia related. He also agrees with Bio’s post 37 in which Bio says this:

I plan on working as many new angles as I can think of, even if it means I might discuss a potentially useless point.

So I don’t think Rhionx or Bio for that matter are saying anything to the extreme of “All SK talk on Day 1 is useless”.

And you asked Rhinox if he thought the discussion was useless but in post 154 he said it wasn’t; just that it helps scum more than town when the setup isn’t open. And that’s the biggest feeling I get from his posts; that he thinks scum can benefit here.

It wasn't meant as a defense of myself, RC, it was actually a question to bio. Since I didn't exactly have a stellar defense to go along with my mistake, there is nothing to indicate I'm playing like any alignment of a good player so far.

The first part is true because it was based on a Bio argument that good scum won’t dig themselves deeper than the original hole they fell into. Actually, I think other factors affect someone’s defense than if they are good scum or not. And even good scum could try and play a different angle or unintentionally lose focus. My meta says you play a good scum, so I think you can post-rationalize any mistake you made.

But then, maybe a good scum play off that knows they’re good and wants the WIFOM of not playing to the meta I have on them

This post is a placeholder. Will post real stuff after I caught up with more urgent games.

hmm?

He’s already done this once and explained why he did it. Have you looked at that post lately?

[Jahudo]

My vote on Rhinox was initially a joke vote and I kept it on when I didn't like his appeal to emotion. I am having growing suspicions of RedCoyote and a few more things to bring up to Rhinox.

Regarding Rhinox:

So what will your new conclusion be when I show up town tomorrow morning?

I know this is directed at OGML but I have a problem with it.

attempts at pairing people off

:…I said that I thought pops was defending you, But a player defending another player does not mean that both are scum.

Didn’t you say it sounded like a "bad attempt at distancing" though? As in scum distancing scum, or did you mean it sounded like scum distancing from town?

Regarding RedCoyote"

Whether this is true or not, do you consider what pops admitted to, to be scummy? Actually, anyone is welcome to answer this, I want to see more discussion over Korts v pops.

Asking somebody for their opinion on something without stating your own, then coming back and just agreeing with their view sticks out to me. If you felt his post was a joke and not a scummy comment, you chose to address it in a different manner than when you defended Huntress and myself.

Actually he’s asking everybody to give their opinions while he’s not giving even a hint of an opinion himself. That does look like he’s testing the waters on a pops wagon. He clearly says he wants discussion but he’s not actually discussing anything in that post.

My reason is that you have not discussed other roles. Where is your discussion about the mafia roles?

Don't ask me questions you don't want the answer to. Perhaps it stems from playing elsewhere, but I do indeed think talking about role possibilites is good stuff.

And yet you continue on and don’t explain why you didn’t discuss mafia roles in the same vein?

And I don’t like you saying you want to play the newbie card but I read it as an aside comment that you are conscious won’t be used in your favor, so I don’t think it’s appeal to emotion.

we should know tomorrow or at some point down the road if there is an sk to deal with, so why worry about it before we know?

It was Rhinox's position that talking about the SK on Day 1 is useless, regardless of the implications it might have later in the game, because he thought we would know at some later date.

Maybe I’m comparing apples to apples here but I don’t think he was saying that talking about it was useless. Rhinox is arguing that the speculation becomes more tangible when/if a second kill is registered. Because if he did think it was useless, why would he want to pressure you to talk about it if you stopped bringing it up?:

I contend that had I just blantantly stopped talking about the SK on post 78 that Rhinox, Rishi, and possibly others would've continually pressured me into talking about it.

Those are the three main points I am agreeing with on the RC wagon.

Rhinox - post 181 is full of yuck.

What’s yuck about it?

How is a vote without a serious explanation suddenly not a serious vote?

To me it did not look like a RVS joke vote but it was also less serious than a vote reinforced by stronger tells. It was the way Korts said "posting for the sake of posting…Shame." in response to "talk-about-nothing-like-you’re-getting-paid-club" that made me feel he knew it was a minor tell coming from a joking fluff post.

I have another meta-rooted tell for RC, which may or may not be valid. Do you want me to tell it to RC in front of you all so he can correct it again?

Might as well since he’s at L-1.

I’m not ready for him to claim though, because that signals decision time to believe him or lynch him. I don’t want to possibly end the day with no read on MME.

[Jahudo]

I'm going to be piecing through that RC case on Rhinox throughout the day but right now I have no opinion of it.

Care to elaborate?

I should wait until OGML has a chance to respond.

Here pops jumps to RC's defense after I asked RC questions, whithout giving RC a chance to answer the questions himself. In the same paragraph, however, its giving him a slight scum vibe. This sounds like fence-sitting, and a bad attempt at distancing.

Yeah, I did say that. But that was only 1 possibility. I don't know why I didn't list every possibility. Maybe I just thought it would be assumed.

But you only displayed one possibility so I understand why RC is saying you paired him off with pops. It’s a valid argument.

pops is one of the weakest followers of the wagon on me, and his claim that he has some sort of great meta on me is complete bunk.

Why is it bunk? Do you think it’s fabricated?

[Jahudo]

So what will your new conclusion be when I show up town tomorrow morning? (hint: don't you think that even a good player can have a bad game?)

Yet another scare tactic. If thats the case, I'll draw my conclusion when it happens. As it is, this question is designed to force me to somehow implicate myself even without your alignment yet being revealed, as though it were definitely town.

That’s basically the problem I saw with what Rhinox said. The “show up town tomorrow” has the burden of proof and should not help a defense.

[Jahudo]

RC is saying that emotional appeals are blatantly manipulative... but that is only assuming that I'm scum intending to be manipulative. If you don't assume anything about my allignment, is an emotional appeal manipulative? Can you even argue that its scummy at all?

Any attempt to appeal to emotion in that case backfired so it didn’t succeed at being manipulative. But if we were to have given you the benefit of the doubt, dropped a few votes to allow you to regroup but still kept an eye on you, and later on you flip scum then yes that is an action with a manipulative purpose.

Well, since you are on the RC wagon, I don't doubt that that is true.

The vote count above this post disagrees with this statement. OGML: Did you think he was voting RC or did you think he was going to vote RC?

And now...
A very concise list of why I find Rhinox > RC > pops suspicious in that order:

Rhinox:

1. Appeal to emotion by saying he's playing like a VI when he was caught being contradictory but only had 2 votes on him at the time so the pressure seems inflated.
2. WIFOM of how scum do not fall themselves into obvious holes and keep digging themselves deeper.
3. Paired RC and pops by saying "a bad attempt at distancing" without giving other scenarios that don't pair them as scum.
4. Burden of proof on what you'll flip tomorrow.

RedCoyote:

1. Post 78 asks everyone to give their opinion on pops' suspicion without giving his own opinion first. Possibly feeling up a wagon to see if it's viable.
2. Said he was open to discussion role possibilities but didn't go into mafia roles. Selective to the SK role.
3. Misrepresenting Rhinox's position on SK talk. RC says Rhinox finds it "useless" day 1; Rhinox says it's better tomorrow when we know more.

popofctown:

1. Continuing to write fluff posts every now and then.
2. Joining a wagon with minimal effort to state reasons.

[Jahudo]

I've already explained that it was an honest mistake where I forgot that I asked pops about you. Is that something scum would do more than town? If I'm scum, did I just think that 8 or 9 town players just would't have noticed that I specifically asked pops about you? Does this sound like something scum would intentionally do, knowing they would probably get called out for it?

That being said, when I realized my mistake, I dropped it. There is or never was any pairing up. I find it overdefensive to assume that me thinking pops was defending you means that I was trying to announce a scum pair - there are many reasons for a player to defend another player. It was like page 2, it seemed like something good to talk about.

Can you explain how that relates to this quote:

This sounds like fence-sitting, and a bad attempt at distancing.

And how that isn't trying to announce a scum pair?

[Jahudo]

Pops, Huntress, Rishi

Is this based on thinking the RC wagon had scum momentum? Why are you less certain about Rhinox's wagon having scum?

[Jahudo]

Rishi > pops > Huntress, I'd say.

I might agree with that.

Are you agreeing that pops could be more likely scummy than Huntress, or are you agreeing that imausername could find pops more scummy than Huntress? If the former, is that a change of opinion from your previous post or is your suspicion of pops about the same as your suspicion of Huntress?

[Jahudo]

So, that leaves us with: Bio, Username, CFR, OGML.

I feel ignored

Weighing in at a whopping 9 posts this game, Rishi, really, hasn't said that much.

Agreed, but at the same time this is a long-winded game and I can see how someone could spend more time reading and catching up than posting.

You are the one who is choosing to answer in a long-winded and repetitive manner.

I can't believe that you can't take a step back and see how unhelpful all of this is.

The bolded selection makes it sound like he wants to believe that RC can see how he erred and correct himself. This feels like he might be willing to reconsider RC or to some extent he trusts that RC is misguided town because he is trying to make RC acknowledge how he looks bad.

As for trying to bandwagon, RC, I had been attacking him since my first substantive post.

@Rishi: How legitimate was that attack for the case? The post in question dealt with RC posts in the first 3 pages and you said this of the early suspicions:

Mole hills. To some degree, on the first three pages. There was some long posts on non-issues (and I don't have time to look back right now to give you specifics, but I can do this later if you want). Less so now.

So was your own suspicion back then a mole hill?

In addition, any reference to pops being scum from huntress comes with the conditional pops AND RC are scum and RC is distancing from pops.

Has she leaned that way in any other post besides post 301?

[Jahudo]

Do you feel this way as well, Jahudo? Obviously not in regards to your vote, but moreso to your suspicions of me in general?

I don't mind long-winded posts in this game and I actually expected them when I signed up. I feel that some of the repetitive arguments over role speculation was unnecessary because ultimately one's opinion is a null to very minor tell and you shouldn't feel the need to have the last word in.

At the moment, I highly think that pops is scum, Vote: pops. However, I am fairly distressed with SpyreX's attempt to derail the wagons on Rhinox and RC this late in the date.

How is your vote not aiding in the derailment of the wagons on Rhinox and/or RC this late in the day?

For RC, I see a diverse number of scummy actions. To address the "what purpose would his play serve as scum", you have to look at the progression of his posts. A large portion of his posts were made in defense of his initial actions.

If you think his continued and repetitive defense of his initial actions is scummy, how is that different from a scummy action committed multiple times?

[Jahudo]

Would I really post to say, "Yes I think you might think that way"?

I just wanted clarification and why you would interchange pops and Huntress in level of suspicions. I don't have a problem with you doing so but I don't know why you would bother to agree with username's list if you didn't make a reason for interchanging your top suspicions placements.

[Jahudo]

I'll catch up tomorrow after I get all the booze and birthday cake through my system.

[Jahudo]

There’s a lot of ideas in the past few pages I would just QFT so to spare the quotes I’ll make a shorter list.

• • I agree that pairing possible scum partners is not as effective until day 2. We can look at momentum or lack thereof on wagons but that information will not be much use until we have a flip.
  
  • I think that alignment of a lynched player is a substantial component of how others are analyzed but it still comes down to if you think that person is scummy by themselves.
  
  • I wonder if a meta on someone’s posting length, frequency and style would be affected by this game’s atmosphere, since there are a lot of big posters. That is something holding me back from looking more into pops meta (although I find his actions suspicious without having played another game with him) and what Rhinox is saying about OGML (who I’ve played with but I still can’t tell if he’s playing normally).
  
  • I like my vote on Rhinox.

Seriously though, is this not an appeal to emotion? is this not meant to manipulate us into feeling sorry for you for being on a different posting schedule? Is this not meant to make us give you a little extra room since you are so inherantly at a disagvantage because of where you live?

I don’t think that’s AtE.
-----

you lynch claimed vanilla because claimed vanilla makes it easier for the scum to nightkill power roles by process of elimination.

Are you saying that if we didn’t lynch the claimed VT, the scum would know not to nk him and thus have a better chance of hitting PR?
-----
Rishi can you explain why you said:

your explanation is plausible (and bionnicchop2 derailed my question anyway), so I won't vote but, unlike before, IGMEOY now.

Specifically what his explanation has to do with you voting him or not? Before you thought he had a genuine scum slip you thought he was more town (post 200). If you thought his defenses were genuine before why might you think that his defense here would be more telling and cause you to move your vote?

I ask more questions to people I think are suspicious.

Which is what you did in post 314 when you questioned Rhinox on why he talked about 4 scum in the game. But your post 345 looks more condemnation than questioning:

Good job explaining why you wrote four instead of three in a few different ways. Nice job appending the line "which I always do in a mini, FYI" to your original quote.

You were more even-handed after that saying his explanation was plausible but it looks to me, and this is just my reaction, that you were looking for an in to vote Rhinox before you had all the defense from him that you seemed to initially want in post 314. Can you talk more about what his post looked like to you? Was it more of a mis-read on your part or was the post your initial reaction to his defense?

[Jahudo]

@Pops: Get out of the peanut gallery and respond to the accusations on you. It looks like you’re trying to stay on the sidelines and that is not happening this late in the day.

Two major things I want to point out in this statement:

1) pops is lining up his lynches, and blantantly so. He doesn't seem to notice that we've been having a discussion for the past couple of pages that it's a fallacy to put me and Rhinox in a "good guy-bad guy" scenario.

2) pops also gets the same impression I got in post 369 that bionic's defense of Rhinox is very meta-based. When I brought this up, bionic confirmed his vote on me.

That looks bad. I still don’t know what his stance on Rhino’s AtE is though. It looks like he regarded it as a scum tell in 370 but other times he doesn’t.
@Pops: What do you really think of Rhino's AtE?

I can never find the fallacy term that describes what I am looking for, but I think this one is Affirming the consequent or something similar (if A, then B; B, therefore A.)

I think it’s the “wearing your jacket” tell now or WTHOOTJ (wearing the hell out of that jacket)

In other words, I know you have a jacket on because you discussed at length with other people (Spyrex) how important wearing a jacket is, and you've talked about your jacket and presented your jacket to other people outside.

You are wearing the hell out of that jacket, whether or not you've specifically said you are or not.

It looks like you are misinterpreting how bionic has used meta in his opinion of how people are playing specifically for this game and how a tell can hold up for a current game without having to be reinforced with past game meta.

RE: Rishi 394. The two scumgroups of two makes sense as a possible place for scum to slip. If there's one 2-person mafia it would make sense for balancing to either have the SK or another 2-person mafia and Rhino would possibly be thinking about scumhunting the other scum, so in his scumhunting a slip could occur. And this:

A genuine slip (and they do exist – in an extreme example, I once saw a player use “we” in reference to scum) is as close as you’ll get to proof that someone is scum, though.

Does explain for me why you were ready to vote Rhino.

[Jahudo]

So, yea, I'm takin it quiet for the next few days. Lynch whomever, I'll check in and throw my vote if it looks like we're going to hit a NL.

He actually said this before Vi extended the deadline a second time, from Feb 22 to Feb 26. I wonder what effect the second deadline review had at the time of that post and what Spy thought immediately after seeing Vi give us four more days.

I've got my vote where I want it now. I'll make sure we dont NL, but aside from that - at this point I'm not arguing for my cases or against the ones I dont agree with anymore this game day.

So, I'll let todays lynch and tonights actions, hopefully, spur something aside from this same avenue.

Not arguing for your case? Are you resigning to the RC or Rhinox lynch at this point? Even with 6 days left?

[Jahudo]

@vanilla cliam stuff - I wasn't sure how much a vanilla claim should weigh. When i first asked for feedback, no one responded, then i got feedback later that i was weighing it to heavily, and it made sense so i changed my vote over to RC.

Well there are typically a few vanilla townies in a game and I don't think this game should be any different. So if you believed Rhinox was town before his claim, wouldn't you think he was town after he gave a legitimate town claim? It sounds like you would vote him only because you don't want to kill a town PR or out another vanilla to get scum closer to a real PR.

[Jahudo]

The line after it explains, so i wish you would have quoted that too. i'll explain again, it's analagous to "if i wanted to conceal that i've been eating cookies from the jar, i would have washed my face". There's no WIFOM there. You wouldn't not wash your face and show up to your mom and give her a WIFOM spiel about "hey, if i ate out of the cookie jar, wouldn't i wash my face? Think about it...", because you have crumbs all over your face.

I feel like there's a hole in this analogy. Since you've admitted to fluff posts then the crumbs

are

on your face. And they got there by doing a suspicious thing. Now you're trying to tell us that

because

you are aware of this suspicious thing, it's not a scum tell because otherwise you would have washed your face (dismissed it and stopped fluff posting maybe). But

it is

WIFOM still

because

you're telling us what you would do as scum and if you were scum how could we believe you would tell us the truth? That and eating the cookies is a no no.

@All: I still would like a Rhinox lynch. If we cannot get that I could join the pops wagon because of WIFOM, piggyback voting, and fluff posting.

Maybe we can get a tally of people who could join a smaller wagon because they don't like a larger one?

[Jahudo]

The point i've been trying to make is that if i wanted to substitute fluff for content in an attempt to conceal scumtells, then i wouldn't have posted content. That's not even a substitution.

Why post the fluff though? Isn't it a scumtell not to post content?

[Jahudo]

Could you explain the leapfrog of pops over RC for potential scum?

The three reasons I provided in that original post for RC look minor after he’s had a chance to defend. I still find #1 suspicious, #2 is a very minor feeling, and #3 is a null tell after his defense and it now looks like a difference in semantics than trying to misrepresent Rhinox.

On pops he’s still posted fluff but I can understand his argument that he’s had a comparable amount of content to others. But it still seems like the content is not pressuring the people he’s found scummy, or giving original opinionated takes on the wagons he’s joined. The first RC vote was the best example. The switch to Rhinox was odd because he’s also calling it even money and wavering on making AtE a tell. But then he jumped back to RC based on a meta tell and I personally don’t think meta’s are as reliable in this game because I’ve said the posting length, frequency and style feel much more intense than a usual game.

Now I've seen Rhinox's wagon decrease for a while. If it drops further I will change my vote first to pops then to RC to ensure a lynch occurs before deadline. I'm also still looking over pops's latest defense and waiting for RC to answer to it first but there's points he made that I don't buy.

Also I think I need to be walked through the entrapment case of RC vs bionic because I don't see any suspicious stuff on either side. It looked like RC was trying to get a clarification on BC's stand on a meta issue that wasn't laid out and BC gave an answer. I don't see any scummy intent to distort the truth by anybody or any way BC's meta could be interpreted as a scumtell or RC's inference was out of line.


Get well soon Vi

[Jahudo]

I don't think I've ever Confirm Voted someone. I don't see the need.

[Jahudo]

If the vote situation doesn't change in the next 12 hours or so I think RC should claim so we have enough time to analyze and respond.

Once again I like Rhino > pops > RC for a lynch.

[Jahudo]

My, ahem, "breadcrumbing" may have began to spiral out of control somewhere around, oh, the third or fourth page? XD

Where?

I don't think it's a big deal that he said "The Jailkeeper" instead of "A Jailkeeper". This is semi-open and the sample roles are for everyone to see. They clearly say "You are a town such-and-such". There could be 2 jailkeepers and it's probably worth it to test his claim, which will be hard but I think we've got time to lynch him later if it's still a good idea.

I still want to lynch Rhinox the scum.

[Jahudo]

I agree that knowing who didn't send in a night PM is TMI but it should help us out today by narrowing down who performed the kill, but that shouldn’t make us rule out Moriarty or Rishi as scum either. Having only 1 night kill leads me to think one scum faction but there are a lot of ways to explain why we could have an SK too, but we might not know that for a while.

What's an even better explanation for odd killage like this is scum avoiding dead-ending. When you yourself, the scum, has publicly fingered someone as town, you know it will be hard to lynch that person since they can't help that lynch along.

That sounds like a good reason to NK someone that many people labeled as scum. And Spyrex did staunchly stick to his read of Rhinox as town, making it hard for him to join a lynch bait wagon the next day without new Rhinox scumtells that Rhino may or may not make. However, this also looks like the obvious path and I think NKs sometimes use occam's razor as a red herring to connect the victim with an obvious target.

-------
Since we now know that the two strongest wagons were on town, it seems likely that the scum didn’t think they were in any danger yesterday. So they might have played a little more relaxed and nonchalant about whom they’d end up lynching. Right now I'm thinking about that group of Huntress, pops and Rishi.

I have to recalibrate my scumdar.

I hope you didn’t start printing up T-shirts of "RC + Rhinox = Scumpairs forever."

[Jahudo]

Pops:

<snip>Re: Redcoyote case: no one seems to understand my special treatment of RC…. evidence shows that i can't read him. …. it's safe to say that my general scumhunting analysis of him is useless. The only hope i could have is a meta analysis…..
Since Rhinox could very well likely be the lynch for today, i think i'll be responsible and read some RC town

1) What did this post mean? Did you know if RC-town talked about "aspects unrelated to alignment" or not?

I still think RC is scummy. His defense is scummy too

2) What does this quote mean? At other times you have clearly stated you can't read RC but here you clearly do.

-------

Slowly finding Rhinox less suspicious:

Vote: Rhinox

I challenged him on appeal to emotion, and more or less all i'm getting is him saying that that's the only defense he has for himself. Issues like totally misinterpreting me (ties in with "scum skim threads") and contradicting himself about his suspicions (ties in with scum aren't genuinely suspicious of anyone) are major issues. Appeal to emotion just makes it worse.

Either Rhinox or RC is lynchalicious right now. RC needs teh pressure more though.

Rhinox, you seem less scummy to me right now. But i can't clearly decide if i feel that way because of your massive AtE or because of actual evidence you've shown.

This feels like a big change of opinion from post 130.
3) Why didn't you acknowledge "misinterpreting, contradicting, AtE makes it worse" in later posts? Where did you say these weren't scumtells? It looks like you still believed them in post 186, but not 276.

-------

Slowly finding Rhinox less and less suspicious (Part 2):

My take on the premature claim is that we probably do need to lynch Rhinox.

I think Rhinox has been scummy.

The original misread and horribly crappy and desperate coverup is lynch reason enough, and the vanilla claim means we really ought to decide whether Rhinox is scum or not.

I actually put Rhinox at even money right now

(back at starting point 0), from BC's testimonies and his consistency with the WIFOM logic and AtE.

i don't think Rhinox is that scummy though.

Not as of now.

Right now

i think Rhinox is at random chances for being scum

, or perhaps ever so slightly below even chances.

4) How do you explain the changes of opinion in the parts I bolded? You clearly went form finding Rhinox scummy in post 348 to quickly changing that opinion less than 30 posts later, until you seem to have nothing to say he looks suspicious in post 425.
5) What happened to the reasons given in post 348 to call Rhinox scum?

-------
A) I think its possible pops used "meta" to fake suspicion on RC and justify his vote switch when it seemed like momentum switched from Rhinox to RC, particularly after BC's long post that showed interest switch to RC. The meta gives him a reason to find RC's SK discussion suspicious but it doesn't seem like a confidant enough reason to keep a vote on if RC is at L-1.

B) Pops was claiming he couldn't read RC, which allows him as scum to avoid having to fake scumhunting, but it also makes his vote feel less confidant. Post 203 is one example of him baselessly reading RC as scummy, which is vague and also contradictory if he still claims to be unable to read RC.

C) Early Rhinox suspicions like "misinterpreting, contradicting, AtE makes it worse" were dropped without reason. AtE was downgraded from "makes it worse" to pops being unsure if it's scummy.

D) His Rhinox suspicions went back up when Rhinox claimed, and although he states his vote switch was "on policy" he actually said Rhinox seemed scummy and "desperate coverup is reason enough to lynch". This doesn't look like a policy vote. It looks like a suspicion vote. But when RC looks like a better lynch, pops slowly downgrades his suspicions using baseless valuations like "even money" and "random or slightly below even chances".

=====
Pops looks very opportunistic from day 1, trying to avoid from pushing accusations when he votes and not qualifying his flip-flopping opinion of Rhinox beyond changing his opinion of AtE on a whim. He looks most scummy to me right now but I'll wait from voting until we hear more from him.

[Jahudo]

pops: You ignored my questions headed under 1) and 2). Also the AtE was only part of your suspicions of Rhinox as scum. Why did you say he was misinterpreting, contradicting, and had a desperate coverup, but you never pursued these accusations? Why the quick turnaround from post 348 to 370? Your excuse wasn't "he was acting like a noob" in post 276. Why didn't he look like a newbie to you until late in the day?

[Jahudo]

@Pops: I feel like you're still avoiding my questions.

Why did you say Rhinox was misinterpreting, contradicting, and had a desperate coverup, but you never pursued these accusations, if only for curiosity because you stated Rhinox was "lynchalicious"?

Why the quick turnaround from post 348 to 370? Your excuse wasn't "he was acting like a noob" in post 276. Why didn't he look like a newbie to you until late in the day?

Yes, i went back and read one of his games where he was town. He only talked about the game, and shied away from theory discussion.

Was that the first time you looked at RC-town?

The quoted part is judgments coming from my meta on how he defends himself as scum. Possibly overconfidented by some OMGUS.

OMGUS on who’s part?

I never said that my position was a stump, but people immediately started blowing it up and saying i was "taking a position".

Do you still feel right about any part of your "conjecture"?

Who was the "multiple people have said 'oh spyrex is scummy" you had in mind when you wrote that post?

If we're not done trying to interpret the kill, i think it might have been a stir-the-pot so that we ignore lurkers.

Do you have other interpretations?

Jahudo, why do you feel like you need to hear Pops's responses before voting today, when you were considering lynching him yesterday just before deadline? Is there any reason you are choosing to question him before voting, rather than questioning him with a vote on him?

I didn’t like how fast that wagon gained momentum when Moriarty, Rishi and OGML hadn’t posted anything substantial. I’d still like to hear more from them but pops if my #1 suspect independent of their absence.

[Jahudo]

So heartwarming. Because even if you don't contribute at all, you're contributing less than pops the fluff poster. Even if you also use WIFOM in your night action interpretation, you didn't do it as wrong as pops did. Even if you also voted for RC, it's pops fault because he's doing it wrong.

We saw the spotlight shine on two town players all of day 1. Maybe letting the spotlight fall where it may is not a good plan here guys.

And people should be paying close attention to them. I hardly have any read on OGML and I'm not sure if anyone does. But I don't like this poor little pops post. AtE is AtE is AtE and if you think its unfair that the spotlight is on you and not a lurker, maybe you're afraid you can't look town.

But you have stood by a valid point that we should keep an eye on the infrequent posters because they shouldn't need an invitation to speak their mind.

[Jahudo]

Please quit saying "once pops flips scum". For one, it's false.

This is not a valid defense. There's still the burden of proof until you can somehow confirm your role while still being alive.

For two, even if you thought it was true, if you had any sense at all you'd know it's possibly false.

Do you think he's purposefully ignoring other possibilities or do you think he's tunnelvisioned? Where do you see this happening besides when he says "pops is scum"?

And three, it makes me feel like you need to cut off discussion on my alignment to get me lynched, and just repeat that i'm scum.

Where is he cutting off discussion in favor of just repeating pops is scum?

[Jahudo]

As Spyrex mentioned, no scum were in danger of being lynched yesterday since the 2 biggest wagons were both on town. This would lead me to think scum played a fairly relaxed game yesterday.

I originally brought that argument up and applied it to popsofctown because that's what I thought of his motivations to change votes day 1. Why do you think it applies to me better than pops or someone else?

Today, with no sure-thing wagons formed, scum would likely be more aggressive IMO.

So can town IMO.

Most of my note on him from yesterday are comments about how he seems to be playing it safe and laying low. Yes he was posting, but never seemed to really get aggressive with accusations.

This is unclear to me. How is "playing it safe" comparable to aggression as a tell? Is "laying low" comparable to lurking as a tell?

Today he has come out guns blazing.

Yeah I'll acknowledge that but I don't see how that correlates to an alignment tell. New information always comes from the flips and there's alot to talk about.

[Jahudo]

It’s hard to judge where Rishi, OGML and Moriatry stand today but hopefully they’ll catch up and be real active this week.

There’s something I’ve started noticing about Huntress’ posts. She keeps active and writes long posts but a lot of that is filled with other people’s quotes and just a sentence or two from her responding to it or asking a question about it. I don’t find this suspicious by itself but she doesn’t have much exposition that isn’t centered around someone else’s words. It looks like a safe way to contribute because she’s not going out on a limb and creating discussion; she’s just continuing someone else’s.

I think BC and Spyrex are the best counter-examples of this; they theorize and find new information. They are the starting points of discussion. Somewhere in the middle today has been RC and IAUN, they have some points they create but not that many. It’s probably normal for the amount of their total posts today IMO, but Huntress’s lack of exposition looks noticeable.

However, rereading I noticed something - everyone, look at pops posts and search for the word town. If I'm somehow the bad guy for saying he's scum without reasons... the repetition fallacy would also be committed by pops for saying he's town.

Well town is in his name
But here’s what I found:

8 - I don't lie about what I'm doing when i play town.
29 - It's ok Spyrex. Toad is back, making everyone subliminally think i'm town.
52 - If you really would lynch me even if you looked up my meta and it showed that i'm playing pops-town
54 - It is lynch popsofctown if he's scum and leave him alive if he's town.
85 - I can use repetition fallacy too RC! Pops is town, pops is town, pops is town

The only ones I’d take serious are posts 8, 52 and 54 because of their context. I don’t think its overwhelming evidence to suggest anything deliberate, but it is interesting.

But OK, fine. If you're saying you weren't sure if there was anyone besides Huntress doing that, don't you think it might have been a good idea to go back and check before using that assumption as the basis for a vote?

QFT

Help me out, someone, which logical fallacy is pops employing here?

When he says he wants to direct the spotlight in more places (not just two people like yesterday) but not on him (falling where it may) it sounds like a "but they did it too" argument.


TL;DR - Pops is still my number 1 suspect.

[Jahudo]

Somewhere in the middle today has been

RC

and IAUN...

I'm assuming this is a typo. Who did you mean?

Yeah I meant you, CF.

[Jahudo]

Vote: popsofctown

My opinion hasn't changed since my last post. I don't really know if pops' attitude at being under pressure today is supposed to be a town tell or scum tell because [alignment] is more calm under pressure. I think its more a player personality indication than an alignment tell.

I'm getting more concerned with OGML's absence but he's not going to be ignored and has alot to do to look town. One thing I agree with of pops is that I want to hear more of Huntress.

Then again, why would scum place a vote for SpyreX instead of the obvious lynch target, especially when he's made this many transgressions? Hmm.

Are you trying to imply something?

Huntress was not making fluff when i was complaining. She was avoiding a question and giving total bullcrap answers.

Is this the first time you are suspicious of Huntress? What post made her your #1 suspect?

Huntress has zero posts on this page and i'm eager to hear from her.

Why single her out when other people are not posting on this page (when she actually did post to say she was re-reading).

Before anyone asks me for reasons on Moriarty ( i didn't have time to finish the post) sometimes she seems kind of me-tooish and contrived.

Do you say contrived because she is me-tooish?

[Jahudo]

If BC is posting less or being less aggressive I think it is proportional to how everyone has been more non-nonchalant today from the predominantly RC vs Rhinox day 1. I don't see anything out of the ordinary and it doesn't seem like he's being more active or less active in another current game.

At the same time I don't know where BC stands on his vote. He hasn't laid out much of a case and he has been one to ask for full cases from other people, so from my perspective I don't know where his suspicions really lay. BC: Were you making a case on me when you voted or were you waiting for me to do something?

[Jahudo]

I have no idea what you two are talking about but if it's about people on the pops wagon (aka us) then I'm all ears.

Huntress, IAUN wherefore art thou ToD?

[Jahudo]

I don't think either of OGML or Pops acknowledged each other much D1 or even today, which concerns me on OGML's part since Pops has been a central topic of discussion.

I looked back on this and agree completely. They rarely interacted with each other and it was always weak, non-alignment observations. I can sort of understand pops not having anything to say about OGML because he wasn't active. I don't understand why OGML ignored pops though.

Look at this:

I'd be willing to wager that the rhinox scum partner in that grouping is pops.

Pops >> Rishi >> Huntress

No where else in any OGML post does he bring up a single concern, question, or suspicion of pops. It seems like he was just trying to bring the conversation back to Rhinox as scum, if anything.

[Jahudo]

Voting next person to make a paring guess based off me being scum. FoSes after that

I don't see a scum connection to you and OGML. I think his pairing you off with Rhinox was scummy for him and it doesn't say anything about you.

[Jahudo]

LOL at pops! When I stop laughing I'm going to mention you're not lynched yet but that even if you had said "Guys please, I'm seriously not scum" I would say "That doesn't mean anything to me because it has the burden of proof, also why Spyrex over Huntress now?"

I can't shake the feeling that with this day going the way it is the last thing a scum would do would be replace out (consider how many people we have responding to prods saying they'll post and not). So, actually admitting and getting replaced (even though I hate replacements) does give some pro-town vibes to me.

I'm not sure what to think of it either. I feel that he is overextended in his games; looking at his post history I see he's modding 4 games and playing in at least 2 games. I wouldn't put it past him to do the whole "respond to prods saying he'll post and not" thing if he was scum, but that doesn't mean he played pro-town.

[Jahudo]

claim time pops

[Jahudo]

I still find pops most likely to be scum here. I can understand his vote on Rishi because he said he'd vote in a "me-or-him situation" but he isn't showing any effort in analyzing Rishi's case, and I can understand that because I think pops is scum.

I don't like ToD's post 669. There's nothing in it to say what he feels about anybody. I don't like that we won't hear anything more from him until day 3, but that’s how V/LA is.

Post #314: As I said at the time, Rhinox's comment was so obviously not a slip when read in context that Rishi calling it out as one looks suspicious. I think it indicates that he wasn't paying real attention to Rhinox's post, and was just looking for things that he could use to cast suspicion on him.

On Day One, it was RedCoyote, because he talked too much about theory, and not enough about finding scum. And that's the only reason he ever gave for finding anyone suspicious throughout the entire day.

Post #590: So, first of all: "The question was asked much earlier, CF, whether or not I think pops is scum. Well, I thought it was a good possibility at the time, but I'm less sure now." When was the "much earlier" question asked? I haven't been able to find it.

@Rishi: Can you address these specifically?

My only issue here is the knowledge Rishi did not kill anybody last night - which can be said for my top 3 remaining suspects.

That should only be an issue if we were specifically looking for Rhinox's killer.

…lately a combination of his AtEs and just being so fail in general have led me to apply the Too Scummy To Be Scum reasoning to pops

Being so fail? Can you elaborate? And why does this make him a town that looks too scummy and not a scum that looks too scummy?

[Jahudo]

In fact, in that period where he was being nice to me, I was suspecting him of buddying.

Rishi needs to cite and explain this part too. If he's talking about something that's AtE, then it looks like a dramatic change of opinion, and besides I don't see where he originally suspected pops of buddying. Was this day 1 or 2?

[Jahudo]

Who is going to hammer before we hit deadline?

Does anyone, anyone at all think it's funny how several people (several is two or more spyrex. And for spyrex i will name the minimum two- rishi and moriarty) have latched onto my wagon like horseshoe magnets?

I wish they had been more active but I could say that of several people. But it’s better late than never to make a lynch.

And I don’t see Rishi’s vote as OMGUS because the suspicion is not on the vote but the suspicion change. Rishi could possibly make the same argument if he thought pops went from finding someone else town to scum in a matter of pages without sufficient reasoning from pops.

Pay attention to the dewdrops the easterly wind brings from the mountains people!

What?

Briefly I'm not seeing the case on Pops and am a bit suspicious of the bandwagon on him. I would be happy to switch my vote to Rishi or Trumpet of Doom but probably not anyone else at the moment.

Why exactly? You thought pops was scummy day 1 but you never told us why because he wasn’t in your top two. Now you don’t find him scummy and we never knew how confident you were day 1. You never committed and now you’re safely backing off.

You really ignored OGML day 1. Why would you vote for ToD now when he hasn’t said anything content-wise? You had Rishi as listed lower on your scumlist than pops day 1. Why has he jumped up so high now?

I think we need 2 options as we approach deadline. Rishi is the only viable alternate right now to pops who I still think is town.

And why do you find him most likely to be scum? And why didn’t you bring this forward earlier?

[Jahudo]

It still looks to early to conclude that we only have 1 killing faction. There could be some successful stops to explain both nights.

BC who did you target last night?

Three people on both lynch wagons but that might not mean as much since we've been pushed to deadline and people have been lurking or falling behind in reading alot.

[Jahudo]

What will a no lynch solve exactly because the watcher is the only sure-fire scum catcher and we might not even have one. And just because there is 0-1 kills, that doesn't mean a doc/RB/jailer is successful.

I think we have to lynch today.

[Jahudo]

Huntress, weren't you going to make a post yesterday? Or were you reading just to catch up?

The only way for a no lynch to find scum is if they try to night kill.
Advantages: successful watcher or if there's a dead mafia/sk we know there has always been two killing factions
Disadvantages: we might lose 1-2 townies. We don't know if we have a watcher. If we have a 3 mafia 1 sk scenario even the SK shouldn't want to kill because they might lose too.

So the best case scenario is a hypothetical SK dies or a hypothetical watcher finds the killer.

If there aren't any NK's that doesn't automatically mean someone stopped a kill. But there isn't any disadvantage here if we don't lose someone.

What do other people think?

[Jahudo]

Moriarty hasn't checked in yet, we should see if ze has anything interesting to add, but I can see where the risk of a no lynch can turn into a benefit. Plus i've been 0-4 on reading people this game

Happy Birthday Vi!

[Jahudo]

Vote: No lynch

(L-1)

I'm ready for night.

[Jahudo]

More so, the jailer is an overrated role which generally serves to create more confusion than help the town.

Why not? On the one hand you can target someone you think is scummy and stop them from potentially killing, on the other you can protect someone that looks so pro-town they won't survive many nights. Having a jailer and a doc could help explain why we're only had 1 kill each night IF we still consider the theory of a second killing party.

If we do massclaim I say Huntress goes first.

[Jahudo]

Should I go next or RC?

[Jahudo]

Do'h, I'm sorry again.

I'm vanilla.

That makes it 9 vanilla townies (Rhinox, Pops, TOD, Spyrex, Moriarty, Rishi, Huntress, CF Riot, Jahudo) and 3 power roles (RC and BC jailers, IAUN doctor)

And no Roleblockers or Watchers. Given all these vanillas I fully believe BC's claim just on that.

@Huntress: Why have you grown more suspicious of Rishi over the past few days?

[Jahudo]

Huntress is my top suspect right now and I'll go through all the days and compile a greatest hits of scumtells. Second might be Moriarty so I'll look into that too. The pro-town people in my eye are Spy, CF and BC.

@Jah: How much do you think an extra JK affects the balance of a game if a doc and 1 JK are already present? Do you think the game could be balanced with 1 doc and 1 JK? Do you think it could be balanced with 1 doc and 2 JKs?

Quite a bit actually. Since there aren't any investigation roles the only worry is blocking another blocker/protector. But the more blocker/protectors out there the better chance of hitting the mafia that sends in the kill or the one being killed.

I don't know about balance since I'm not sure if a 3-man mafia is what we have. A 2-man mafia seems too low for a mini but maybe they have a RB. I don't see what a mafia doctor or watcher would do to help if there's no SK, but a RB could block the blocker blocking them?

[Jahudo]

My feelings on Huntress haven't changed since my post 584. I see Huntress responding to people but only to an extent that is required by the interactions of those other people. She's staying under the radar by not sparking the discussion on her own. It feels to me as though she's lurked through this entire game. The majority of her original words are one-two sentence remarks on quotes from other players. Sure she has questions, explanations, agreements, or disagreements but she is not dictating the discussion to the scumhunting that she is doing on her own.

I thought it might be a universal playstyle for her but she didn't always play this indirectly in Newbie 606 (as town), Mafia 87 (as town) or Mini 696 (recruited into scum but still looked pro-active before that).

Briefly I'm not seeing the case on Pops and am a bit suspicious of the bandwagon on him. I would be happy to switch my vote to Rishi or Trumpet of Doom but probably not anyone else at the moment.

Why exactly? You thought pops was scummy day 1 but you never told us why because he wasn’t in your top two. Now you don’t find him scummy and we never knew how confident you were day 1. You never committed and now you’re safely backing off.

You really ignored OGML day 1. Why would you vote for ToD now when he hasn’t said anything content-wise? You had Rishi as listed lower on your scumlist than pops day 1. Why has he jumped up so high now?

Huntress you missed this from a few days ago.

It's the biggest feeling I've been picking up lately so,

Vote: Huntress

[Jahudo]

I am..hesitant because there hasn't been any real anti-wagon except from you (and yours isn't even strong). I'd have expected far more push and pull with this being lylo.

Maybe Moriarty, ze hasn't said anything either way today. This was the last opinion from Mort to Hunt:

The thing that's still bothering me about Huntress is poor cases *plus* not being around anywhere, but then she comes out of nowhere and presents a crap case on SpyreX of all people. This is kind of strange for someone who I've assumed to be scum, for reasons of it makes no sense for scum at all.

Looks like indecisiveness coming after a period of possibly being more certain about Huntress when the signs didn't seem to change things about her.

[Jahudo]

It is strange for me to see Moriarty first "assume Huntress to be scum" then after Huntress made a "crap case on Spyrex", Moriarty seems less certain that Huntress is scum. I don't know how he/she came to that opinion.

[Jahudo]

CF, did I clarify my last post?

What are people's main points against Rishi? (for those who have main points against him but especially Huntress who is long overdue for an answer)

I don't really see Rishi becoming any more suspicious because we know pops is town and he had that case against Rishi, but that case is probably worth going over again.

[Jahudo]

Moriarty could use a prod actually.

Mod: Can you prod Moriarty please?

I did that yesterday. ~Vi

[Jahudo]

Here's more Huntress case: The Huntress vs. Spyrex Deluxe Edition.

What I think:
-She rarely gave a reason for finding him first noteworthy, then a #2 suspect, then the top suspect.
-She retroactively gave reasons that don't ideally match up with the time line of her increased suspicions.
-She didn't have a problem with Spyrex voting RC on day 1, only minutes after he did so, but she made it a major point of her case against him day 2.

The Timeline:

Post 301 : She had suspicions on Spyrex (and CFR) but couldn’t explain them until she read what they were, and even then they might not be enough for a case. It turns out (from post 559) that she didn’t have enough to make a case.

Post 402 : She says her suspicions on Spyrex are increasing but she doesn’t explain how and why. She says she needs to look closer, which sounds an awful lot like “checking her notes” from post 301. It feels like she hasn’t read into her notes since before post 301, or else she might be more specific about her rising suspicion.
@Huntress: Are there any parts of 402 that you felt, at the time of writing them, were tells against Spyrex, or were you just gathering information?

Post 459 : Spyrex becomes her #2 vote choice. No reason provided.

Post 482 : She admits that she hasn’t given any reasons for suspecting her #2 lynch candidate (and that she hasn’t given a detailed account of her suspicions on Pops, her #3 candidate) even though she has already considered having a back-up vote.

Post 500 : Admits that she would switch her vote to her #2 lynch candidate, Spyrex, even though she has not provided any reason to find him suspicious.

Post 524 : Now it’s day 2 and she votes for Spyrex but does not provide a reason, just that he was her next candidate in line that’s alive from day 1. There’s no sign that anything changed her mind from day 1 to day 2.

Post 552 : Finally gives a reason why she thinks Spyrex is scummy, not at the request of Spyrex but from pops. Her reasons are Spyrex’s post 303 where he said RC was town, and post 497, where he votes RC. Regardless of whether these posts as tells (I don’t think so), Spyrex didn’t vote for RC until after Huntress was willing to switch her vote to him. And in Huntress’s post directly after Spyrex voted for RC, mere minutes apart, she does not bat an eye at this vote change. She vaguely says she could vote for him but not why. If she felt that way then, about his stance on RC, she should have said something.

Post 559 : Huntress explains that in post 301 Spyrex had done something to peak her interest but in retrospect it was not enough for a case.
@Huntress: What had he done?

On the count of Spyrex changing his vote to RC, Huntress has a problem with his quote “Well, hells bells, I was as wrong as you can be about RC I guess”.
@Huntress: Why does that quote make any difference? Did his believe that two jailers were doubtful look truthful, and was it a reasonable reason to vote one of the two jailers because of that doubt?

[Jahudo]

RE: IAUN’s Post 659 case against Rishi

Point 1: Using the word interesting.

I understand the principle of this tell in the way he describes it, but I’d bet town often slouch into describing someone’s words or actions are interesting as a way of saying “It’s note worthy but maybe not possible to dissect yet or I just don’t have the time to explain”. If someone uses this language of avoidance as a crutch I can certainly see it as a tell, but in moderation I don’t think it’s a big deal.

Point 3: Rishi thought Rhino slipped in assuming 4 scum.

First he asked for an explanation before voting, which seemed like a fair way to handle Rhino. Then he makes his conclusion in post 345 that Rhino had slipped. I suppose it’s possible that Rishi truly felt it was a slip, but I don’t see it that way. Rishi did back off when he decided that it wasn’t a slip. I think the way he backed off looked natural.

Point 4: Says he’s willing to switch to avoid a no lynch

I think town do this as often as scum who want to look town, that is to say all the time. The follow-up means a little more to me. Rishi’s vote was on RC who was the top wagon most of the time. Typically someone will offer to switch their vote if they are on a lesser wagon near deadline. And IAUN points out that Rishi didn’t discriminate between the Rhinox or pops wagon, which could mean a lot (he didn’t care which hanged because he’s scum) or not so much (he didn’t care which hanged because he read them equally, which is what he said in that post). I can buy that actually, since Rishi said Rhino’s AtE looked like it came from town early on day 1, and later on Rishi stopped feeling that Rhino had slipped in saying “assuming 4 scum in the game”. I don’t get the feeling that Rishi had a strong opinion on pops one way or the other.

The bolded part

I do agree with that part to an extent. There were times when Rishi went on an attack or asked questions but he was also indecisive and withdrawn from several conversations. Post 590 is a good example.

Rishi defended (in post 672) that he doesn’t typically take a strong stance Day 1, that he tends to be more cautious and that a lot of other people weren’t active. Cautious sounds like survival strategy.

To that list, you can add this post, which looks like a big fat wagon hop, Moriarty's waffling at the end of D2, and this post, which isn't really saying "I think Huntress is scummy," but is saying, "I think enough people think Huntress is scummy for me to lynch her." I've also noted that Rishi and Moriarty are both calling Jah scum now out of absolutely nowhere.

I need to look closer at the suspicion and voting time lines of RC day 1 and Huntress recently to see if Rishi is really jumping on to these wagons (Post 200 and 753 respectfully). It could be that he was late to the RC wagon due to his cautiousness or late to Huntress suspicions from inactivity. So far Rishi adds up to moderately suspicious, borderline scummy.

[Jahudo]

@Huntress: Why did you downgrade your suspicion of pops from day 1 to day 2 and why did you upgrade your suspicion of ToD/OGML from day 1 to day 2?

It just seemed to be too much of a U-turn for him to assume that RC was lying when he had previously been so sure that he was town (see post 419). Particularly while saying that he had been expecting that RC would more likely than not claim jailer. It was too melodramatic and didn't ring true.

I think you have a point. He expected the jailer claim and he expected town, so that should have just enforced his read. But I can see why he changed his vote under the circumstances.

[Jahudo]

Except the issue with your scumteam concept is that it seems to be based primarily on the concept that lack of content = scum, automatically. While lurkers are never good, they are not necessarily guaranteed scum.

Are you defending yourself and Huntress with this statement? Why are hers and your situation different than Rishi? Because lack of content was the reason you preferred a Rishi lynch day 2, so what's the difference?

[Jahudo]

I'm gonna go ahead and call the entire scum team too. Ready for this:
Huntress, Rishi, Moriarty.

In terms of independent suspicion I agree with this team. But with their interactions it is a little hard to see Moriarty partnered with Rishi, that's the only thing that worries me. She/he made a case day 1 and day 2 against him and mostly preferred him to the mislynches.

From Rishi's side I can see exactly where he starts to suspect Huntress and it can certainly be interpreted as bussing. Huntress has had growing suspicion on her since day 1 and any scumpartner would see the need to bus late in the game to the extent that someone like Rishi is doing.

It has felt like Huntress and Rishi have somewhat ignored Moriarty, but I can't help but feel everyone has interacted with this player less than any other. I don't know what to make of it. Does anyone have an opinion on this?

And finally Huntress has skated by on this Spyrex case that never fully developed which in the long run looks very counter-productive and anti-town. Even if she's been V/LA for parts, she's ignored alot of important events and made some logical moves which is why she's most likely scum.

[Jahudo]

I'm here.

BC: What do you think about the scum pairing of Huntress, Rishi and Moriarty? And specifically what do you think of Moriarty's suspicion against Rishi or Rishi's suspicion of Huntress?

I think Moriarty-scum was just safe distancing from Rishi-scum because the group suspicion on Rishi was low enough that a wagon didn't seem likely to get off the ground and overtake RC, Rhinox, or pops as a lynch. But this is the weakest link in the Huntress-Rishi-Moriarty scum pairing because it started day 1 and continued to day 2.

[Jahudo]

@Huntress: Any specific reason you distrust Bio's claim? How do you think he pulled it off?

I don't mind waiting and seeing what Moriarty does.

[Jahudo]

EBWOP: I find Jah's stance of "hey ley's leave someone at L-1 at LYLO and see what happens when player X who hasn't voted yet comes around" slightly disturbing, as it would have resulted in a town loss if I were scum and Huntress were town.

The only way to lynch someone is to first get them to L-1. I believe very strongly that Huntress is scum and I have demonstrated why. And just because Huntress isn't dead does not mean that all scum are on her wagon. A couple scenario's:

1) A 2-person mafia is fairly sure that there is either another 2-person mafia or an SK. They would not quick hammer because they can't win over night and they would be afraid of losing a member to a nk.

2) A 3-person mafia might have some concern that a SK exists that could prevent them from winning tonight.

3) Huntress is scum. Her partner(s) might be hoping for a different wagon to emerge today, or wait until the right time to hammer so they can strengthen their defense for tomorrow.

I am very very very confidant that one of these is true and explains why a hammer has not occurred. In any case, I am not going to unvote with 4 days left until deadline and the other people I have pinned as scum are stalling.

A hammer right now from Moriarty or Rishi and a scum flip would not make the hammerer look obvtown in my opinion, because they have not shown a progression of suspicion and effort into looking at Huntress's case that would be necessary to make that bold move. It would look like they knew the outcome and used it to bus. CF has shown some inclination that Huntress is scum but not as much as he has of Rishi yet so even his hammer would look questionable. Now, this is all thrown out the window at deadline and someone is forced to make a move.

[Jahudo]

@BC: Who have you blocked each night?

In fact, looking back I can see where Jahudo has been directing things a bit (see the last line of post 728 for a point I made earlier about this) which reminds me of his play in another game in which he was mafia, although I thought he was town at the time.

I have been mafia once and that was a newbie game. You weren't in it. What are you referring to?

I don't agree with the suggestion that the possibility of a third party might prevent them hammering.

Why not?

At the moment I'm prepared to lynch either Jahudo or Spyrex, or possibly Bio.

Any reason other than OMGUS? These people and CF voted early because they were active rather than lurking or inactive.

@CF: I don't think it matters much who hammers, since I feel confidant we'll hit scum. Ideally I want to see Moriarty and Rishi present cases before deadline hits and they are forced to vote someone they weren't suspecting.

[Jahudo]

In fact, looking back I can see where Jahudo has been directing things a bit (see the last line of post 728 for a point I made earlier about this) which reminds me of his play in another game in which he was mafia, although I thought he was town at the time.

I have been mafia once and that was a newbie game. You weren't in it. What are you referring to?

Actually, you might be talking about an ongoing game that we're both dead in. I forgot about that one. In that game I was only trying to direct things after several people had me dead to rights as scum. And that was day 1.

In lylo or mylo or near-endgame I often try to take over as town or scum.

[Jahudo]

Huntress + Rishi if I had to bet. Moriarty is possible SK but I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if she was a third mafia. Moriarty looks like she’s independently scum hunting more than surviving at times. Her treatment of Rishi is either very good distancing or trying to catch mafia.

Huntress and Rishi have both suspected each other but failed to give reasons why. They both stated they would vote each other late day 2 when the pops wagon was at full momentum and neither Huntress nor Rishi attempted to push the other’s wagon. Instead they allowed the pops wagon to progress when they disagreed with it. Rishi agreed with the wagon at the end but it still felt like he should have had unfinished business with Huntress.

Post 683 - Pops is at L-1 and Huntress is voting for Spyrex. There are two days left in the deadline. She says she would rather vote for Rishi than pops, even though Rishi is only at L-4 and Spyrex L-5. She hadn’t previously stated that she suspected him and she didn’t push a Rishi wagon, which makes me believe she didn’t really believe pops was a worse choice than Rishi.

Post 735 - Huntress wants Rishi to claim before her. We still don’t know why she think Rish is scum, so its possible Huntress is feigning suspicion here because it is a safe way to suspect someone without pushing a wagon on them yet.

Post 590 - Rishi lists Huntress as a top suspect, I gather because Rhinox was killed night 1 and he thought Huntress was trying to frame Spyrex to boost her case. He doesn’t push this point though.

Post 602 - Rishi says he would vote for Huntress if she were active. It is 9 days from deadline day 2 and pops is at L-2.

Post 672 - Rishi says he would vote Huntress but it’s too late for the wagon. This looks like a deadline decision to vote pops because his next post goes after pops hard but only has 1 soft and open line of questioning for Huntress. He had been waiting for Huntress to re-appear so he could go after her (presumably with questioning) but he doesn’t.

Post 708 - Rishi says Huntress is wishy-washy, but not really a condemnation or threat in that post.

Post 753 - Rishi says he’d vote for Huntress for the same reasons other people suspect her. At this point in the game I can see scum bussing. This independently does not make them scum partners but it doesn’t prevent them from being partners.

[Jahudo]

f

[Jahudo]

Man....SK is too hard

We really should have taken a shot at BC. The thing is that an apathetic town tends to favor scum and, after Day 1, he was barely playing, so I never really pushed for his kill. He was always on the list, but something always happened where we went in a different direction.

Yeah I kept wondering why Spyrex and BC kept staying alive, but then I figured it was IAUN doctor.

They looked the most town to me since day 1 but I figured if they wanted to help out with lynching pops et. all while ignoring my "nice little words" (how did they suspect me?) that was fine too.

The only little bit of redemption I got was being a N1 nk, instead of being left alive to be lynched eventually. I take pride in getting myself nightkilled when I'm vanilla town, and although this was not the way I expected it to happen, it saved the town from being forced to lynch me later.

The main reason I killed you was I thought you would rebound and play with a chip on your shoulder the next day. I felt your mistakes weren't going to be strong enough for a lynch and I feared your walls of text

For some reason I had ToD/OGML pegged as a power role so that explains the n2 kill.

So was I too townish day 4? It felt easy to push my agenda by then but I realized if I was actually on the right track catching scum they'd probably kill me first.

Oh, and I loved the TMI miscue because it made me realize Rishi-Moriarty scumteam couldn't have sent in that kill on me day 1, and with obvtown BC and Spyrex that left Riot. Yay process of elimination

[Jahudo]

I was trying to play the SK like a Vig, at least on people I said were scummy during the day so it would look like I could be trusted. Once I knew CF was scum I still couldn't find much of a case to bring up, so he played good.

It was fun to act like there was only one scum group the entire game and secretly try to figure out why the kills didn't go through. I guess there was never an appropriate time to speculate about an SK like RC wanted to do

[Jahudo]

For some reason I had ToD/OGML pegged as a power role so that explains the n2 kill.

Could you please try to figure out what I did that could have made you think that? That'd be great.

It was OGML's playstyle and how he played boldly by announcing that he'd found the scumteam of Rhinox and RC. My first instinct was to think he was vanilla because some people are more visible and pro-active as vanillas because getting NK'ed as vanilla is better than getting NK'ed as a power role. But his calling out a scumteam looked more counter-productive at that time so I decided that he was attempting to have just enough suspicion on him to stay alive during the night.

But now I don't really trust any meta on OGML because it seems that every game I play with him he replaces out.

he's probably just afraid of my skillz

ToD, I figured you were still catching up so I didn't have a separate read on you.