Mini 749 - Antarctic Mafia [Game Over]

[Nuwen]

/confirm

[Nuwen]

VOTE: vote: ZEEnon[/b] for the eyesore capitalization in his username.

[Nuwen]

hangovefail.

vote: ZEEnon.

[Nuwen]

A little drunkenness never hurt anyone.

[Nuwen]

EBWOP... that is supposed to mean, ZEEnon has 4 votes, and that seems plenty for the moment, if not a little on the generous side.

With DraketheFake not far behind at L-4.

Hallo twin wagons.

[Nuwen]

Who needs you anyhow? Nuwen and Mizz.Mafia are better than you any day.

I'll admit it, the shoes point really won me over.

[Nuwen]

You're all forgetting one key piece of the penguin puzzle.

[Nuwen]

It looks like you wrote down swear words in my name, why do you hate me Nuwen?

Through some terrible incontinuity in the fabric of space-time, your name grows infinitely longer around the hour of three AM.

vote : nuwen

You took more time to point out that I havent participated int he random stage than you did to draw that trainwreck of.. uhh I dont know what that is actually.

This is why I don't believe in pressure votes. There are plenty of ways to get players out of the woodwork without neutering the power of a vote by saying "not voting 4reals just pressurekk."

[Nuwen]

But isn't "Debonair fuck long names" just as long as "Debonair Danny DiPietro"?

See above reference to a spacial wormhole. At three AM, it seemed much shorted and more satisfying.

oh great, i'm playing with a bunch of retards. i don't know if you guys are joking or trying to piss me off. none of your votes have any sense behind them whatsoever, so i'll just disregard them. continuing on ..

Welcome to the RVS. The purpose of placing random votes is to slowly transition from jest to just decorum. How else would you suggest an uninformed majority begin to seek out an informed minority?

Your over-reaction to obvious sarcasm stands out as panicky and self-concerned. Prematurely seizing

any

accusation to "get out of the random voting stage" is not necessarily scummy, but certainly illogical - your decision to make one random joke more weighty than another is either equally random, or an indication that you possess more information than you're revealing.

Do you believe you're in danger of being quick-lynched, with your current count at L-3?

RVS has once again succeeded.

[Nuwen]

"obvious sarcasm" you say? only scum benefit from 'randomly' voting .. because the can disquise their bandwagon votes quite easily.
i also asked a question, and then people starting saying it was supicious. also, i never said i was in danger. i stated that it is very suspcious for all my votes to be

random

. scum like to say that L-3 isn't a big deal so that it stays that way for longer, and more votes can pile on. i think you are definitely obvscum. one down, one or two more to go. you are right, RVS succeeded, in catching you that is .

And only scum create spurious reasons for a random vote not to be random, in order to react with an OMGUS.

DraketheFake's wagon also consisted of three random votes at the time of post 78, one of which happens to be yours. To you, do the other votes on Drake appear equally scummy as the votes on you? How do you explain choosing one random wagon over another equally-sized random wagon to focus on? As I said before, if you're not allowing pressure on you to cloud your judgement, you're either also acting at random or are selecting a wagon to pursue based on other information. Which is it?

only scum benefit from 'randomly' voting ..

So you think there is absolutely no reason to vote in the RVS as a pro-town player?

scum like to say that L-3 isn't a big deal so that it stays that way for longer, and more votes can pile on.

GET THEE BEHIND ME, SATAN WIFOM.

I'd still appreciate knowing whether you felt close to lynch territory, thanks. If you didn't believe you were in danger of being lynched, then why did a random wagon strike you as threatening and scummy?

[Nuwen]

Walls of text are a disease.

I agree that ZEEnon's stream of mafia consciousness registers slightly higher as discomposed town rather than scrubby scum, but I haven't dismissed the possibility that he panicked as inexperienced scum. His early overreactions to Drake's initial vote also point towards a town read, rather than scum alarm creating by a growing wagon.

i understand that during the random voting stage, you are doing just that, random voting. but do any of you ever think that perhaps, you might.. oh i don't know, be helping the mafia come closer to their goal? they can easily hop on the wagon, and if they EVER HAVE TO JUSTIFY their actions, they can say that it was RANDOM, and that they were following everyone else.

When trying to splice the alignment of a vote, this is why voting patterns are just as important as stated reasons for voting. I draw pretty charts to map them out. Do you believe that scum

always

have to invent reasons for voting, and will

never

place a vote with completely pro-town logic? I'd be sad if Mafia were that easy.

If a wagon goes from zero to lynch just outside of the random voting stage, I would dance for joy. That's some easy scumhunting.

1) Those in glass houses should not throw stones.
2) I'm indicting someone for terrible play.
3) Drake is therefore insinuating my play is terrible.
4) Via my syllogism which he quoted to use accepting it as fact because otherwise his jab doesn’t work; terrible play is town play.
5) Therefore I am town.

Careful with linear logic, kids. Drake's comment snarkily called your play terrible and did nothing to prove your generalization that terrible play equals a terrible

town

player. This is an inverted strawman - you're attempting to prove the statement "I'm terrible, I'm town" after assuming "terrible play -> universally been terrible town play" is an axiom. The only truism here is "terrible play equals terrible play." Hinging DDD's statement on "so far" deconstructs the statement's endurance even further in practice - if terrible play is qualified as town-only play 'thus far,' WIFOM is established for any future terrible play. Great door to create.

I don't like this contrived attempt to prove alignment.

Since orangepenguin did not post any distribution of roles and/or sample role PMs in the beginning of the thread, am I right in assuming that we don't know the distribution of mafia members, cops, docs, and townies? Or is there some thread where "Normal" games are defined?

If it's the latter, could I have a link please? If it's the former, do we have to worry about stuff like masons in Normal games?

Masons are usually included in canon of "standard" mafia roles, roughly outlined here.

[Nuwen]

Wouldnt a better play have been to just ignore it?

I agree. Cute logic battles are fun, but shouldn't take precedence over actual scum-hunting. If you're retorting simply to retort, you're at best creating spurious fluff that convolutes the game and detracts attention away from actual tells. Worse still, this distraction can be interpreted as an anti-town attempt to disrupt focus.

And speaking of focus, hi Mizz.Mafia.

and i havent "contributed" anything during this game because, i whatsoever have no clue what you guys are talking about. im confuzzled T-T... such big words >_<

Is there anything specific that's confusing you? It's in the entire town's best interest that you're as informed, can follow the game, and are able to contribute. Any less is active lurking, which I have a nasty lynch policy for.

[Nuwen]

This is a good start.

and my last comment i made was about 17 hours ago.... if i was lurking, i would have BARELY wrote anything at all. but i did so .. hmp?

Active lurking refers to posting in a thread, but not actually contributing to reads or giving other players readable material. It doesn't qualify as actual lurking or inactivity. I'm very much for lynching active lurkers - their lack of contribution is either an attempt to coast under the radar without being read, or is inattentive, bad play. Both are detrimental to the town.

whats presendence.. retort[ing] spurious convelutes detracts .... such weird words.

There are reference resources at your disposal:
http://dictionary.reference.com/

Precedence -> A prior standard ("preceding")
Retort -> a reply or counter-argument
Spurious -> False and misdirecting
Convolute -> curling or wrapping in upon itself, like a spiral. Complex.
Detracts -> takes attention away from

like "WIFOM" & "slips" & "RVS" & "flip" & "DtF"... i have no clue what those mean.

RVS: Random voting stage.

WIFOM: Wine in front of me, a reference to The Princess Bride. Any situation with two equally likely opposing outcomes. Wiki article.

DtF is referring to Drakethefake.

A slip is some fault, flaw, or mistake made by a player that another player attempts to use as a scum tell. If I hit my face across the keyboard and posted "HEY GUYS, I'M SCUM BY THE WAY," that would probably be considered a slip.

You should try to read each post in full at least once, otherwise you'll be unable to help the town hunt scum. Or you could be a liability. And then we'd kill you dead.

^_^

[Nuwen]

but i dont want to read everything T-T...

If ever a game really needed a dayvig, it would be now.

I'm not allowing the meta "new = null most overt scumtells" to seep through this site.

Vote: Mizz.Mafia

(no ZEEnon, you're not off the hook yet)

[Nuwen]

If anything, I would contest that no matter the situation a dayvig (if available) would be detrimental. Leaving her alive would make it quite easy to read such a new player, and/or mislead them long enough to get a lynch. However, that can easily backfire with people looking out for it, and then we can find scum yet another way by seeing who's targeting who with their arguments. I'd contest that it'd not be a good time (or at least a good target) for a day-vig as I highly doubt she's scum.

Inevitably, I think leaving her alive would result in enough anti-town play on her part to make a wagon of votes difficult to splice. Scum love scummy or new town, as it's easy to build an actual case against them. A policy lynch would hardly be cleaner, but it leaves less room for scum to present an entirely pro-town case while jumping on her wagon. I worry that any wagon against her will be worthless for analysis as she sinks herself deeper.

Let's hope I'm wrong. Spend a night with the wiki and some older mafia discussion threads, pretty please Mizz.Mafia.

I'd also like to hear more from Jere & Pacman.

[Nuwen]

DDD's responses, while not particularly townish, seem like they're coming from an over-responsive town player interested in proving himself not to be scum. We can WIFOM the intention behind that all day, but I'm not going to overvalue the defensive quality of his posts - being defensive is alone not a scum tell.

(speaking of which, is there such a thing as town-tells?)

There are valid town tells, where "valid" means "right more than random chance," not "always right."

Danny, if a person flips town, especially on day one, the people voting that person from the random voting stage, without validating their reasons for keeping their votes on, and the fourth or fifth vote* are most likely to contain mafia. The hammer is only suspect if it appears to exist solely for the purpose of ending day or if it come unprovoked or against the request made by the town or a player to not hammer yet.

* See Jeep's (I think it's his) article on finding mafia.

This is my standard caution against applying wiki axioms without thinking. Some are obvious common sense: reasonless voting, rolefishing, misquoting. But the meta making fourth, fifth, and hammer votes more suspect than earlier wagon votes is long outdated - most of the Wiki's theory pages were written half a decade ago. Jeep noticed that wagons built around valid anti-town play were constructed by pro-town players and then rushed to lynch by scum buddies parroting the earlier cases. Because this site is the product of multi-generation wiki metas, every wagon needs to be examined independently. Blindly placing more gravity on later votes is foolish.

I'm glad Mizz.Mafia was replaced. Clueless estrogen on the Internet makes me want to tear my well-conditioned hair out. I don't think her play reflected on her role, as she was obviously flailing about, but I wouldn't immediately discount it.

While I've seen ad-hom attacks like "weaboo" eventually drag out information, it's usually the result of a frustrated player throwing the game, giving up, and eventually being modkilled for outing his/her scumpartners or quoting a role PM.

Unvote

, by the way.

[Nuwen]

Of course, I'm most concerned about getting out of suspicion. I have

one

piece of confirmed information. I win with the town. If I focus on getting someone else lynched there's a 20-35% "random" chance we lynch correctly and a 65-80% random chance we lynch a fellow pro-town player and that's assuming I somehow move the attention off me while spending more time examining other people. If I fail in moving suspicion off me and I'm lynched then there's a 100% chance a pro-town player has been lynched. It's simple math that I should dedicate the bulk of my time to not being lynched and yes, I have done some hunting in my defenses.

Do you think a mislynch is always detrimental to the town?

[Nuwen]

No, there's times a mislynch isn't bad and sometimes it's even optimum play. I know that. However, in this situation I see no clear benefit to the town from me being lynched.

I spy a softclaim?

Do you believe there's scum propelling your wagon, besides Feeko?

Do you think a mislynch is always detrimental to the town?

How do you know that if Debonair Danny DiPietro is lynched, it will be a mislynch? If I weren't currently suspicious of pacman281292, I would definitely move my vote right back on to you. I will wait until pacman281292 actually answers my accusation however, as he still hasn't posted anything relatively purposeful in this game. For now, only

FOS: Nuwen

I don't. However, DDD has said,

1. "I win with the town."
2. "Mislynches can be beneficial."
3. "I am the incorrect lynch today."

These statements add up to any of the following:

1. A false (vanilla?) town claim made by scum.
2. A true (vanilla?) claim, made by someone more interested in remaining alive than providing the town with a scum-powered wagon to pick apart on day 2.

Either way, DDD's primary prerogative is to remain alive. This goal matches that of scum, a power role, or a vanilla who's convinced that he's one of the better scumhunters in the game.

[Nuwen]

I dont like this. This implies that on a different game day he would potentially be the right lynch? If you are the incorrect lynch one day, how could you not be the correct lynch another day?

Yes. If there are limited vanilla roles in a game (and the first day's lynch hit town), lynching claimed vanillas on day 2 and/or 3 and then massclaiming can out some, if not all, scum buddies. If the only remaining players are power roles, scum, or have third party alignments, scum are left with few options to claim - most scum will have spoiled their claim options at this point too.

Policy lynches are also more 'correct' on day 1. Each player has the least possible role-based information that he'll have all game, thus meta-shaping lynches based solely on policy can carry more weight. Late game policy lynches, excluding LAL, tend to be detrimental.

I'm less concerned about DDD being a third party. The standard canon of third party roles is impotent - Jester (would you be that cruel to your fellow penguins, mod?), survivor, lyncher. An SK speculation can wait for night kill confirmation. It's too early for cult tells.

[Nuwen]

Also,

Hi pacman.

[Nuwen]

It's the same as this earlier post.

And speaking of focus, hi Mizz.Mafia.

More than anything, it's a note that Pacman hasn't responded to the brunt of posts in his direction.

p.s., thanks to our mod for the extremely quick and active vote updates

. I quoted ZEEnon's post less than ten minutes after he submitted it, and already found a votecount edited in.

[Nuwen]

Furthermore, if someone else is lynched and it is still a mislynch isn't there a distinct possibility it could still be scum-driven or likely having scum contribute significantly?

That's my point - I'm wondering why you believe your mislynch would hurt the town more than another mislynch. One scum-powered wagon is equal to another scum-powered wagon.

I don't. However, DDD has said,

1. "I win with the town."
2. "Mislynches can be beneficial."
3. "I am the incorrect lynch today."

These statements add up to any of the following:

1. A false (vanilla?) town claim made by scum.
2. A true (vanilla?) claim, made by someone more interested in remaining alive than providing the town with a scum-powered wagon to pick apart on day 2.

Or perhaps 3. A true claim made by someone that could very well be innocent
and wants to prove that while alive instead of helping find scum while he is dead.

Oye you, read more betterer. Your option 3 is identical to my option 2 - a town player that believes he's worth more alive than dead with a scum wagon behind him.

Unless the scum part is true, none of the other things are detrimental to the town. Therefore, the fact that you want to take the chance on lynching him to help 'find scum' is extremely suspicious.

You don't think a survivor complex can make a player act in his or her best interests, rather than the entire town's best interest?

Have I once suggested that DDD be lynched, or voted/FOS'd him? I find it odd that you assume I'm building up to a strategy lynch.

[Nuwen]

Freeko is obtuse and abrasive in another ongoing game that I'm currently in with him. I can't talk much about the game itself, but I'm beginning to think his posting style is a disposition.

I'm grabbing a cup of coffee to reread and confirm, but I wanted to get that sudden realization out there.

[Nuwen]

Freeko is obtuse and abrasive in another ongoing game that I'm currently in with him. I can't talk much about the game itself, but I'm beginning to think his posting style is a disposition.

I'm grabbing a cup of coffee to reread and confirm, but I wanted to get that sudden realization out there.

I disagree. His argument isn't just obtuse and abrasive but extends from mere stupidity and dullness into a completely self destructive attack. His argument doesn't make any sense and actually could probably sink in a vat of wet cement. He is thick headed, full of omgus, and just generally seems to be set on disrupting the town in a fashion of making the ability to scum hunt nearly impossible. Only mafia gain from preventing this, and I think that he is a goon of some sort attempting to pass off as misguided townie. (I just don't think any townie is THAT misguided.)

Here's the thing about OMGUS: it's such a weighty accusation

because of the vote's lack of explanation.

OMGUS is almost a myth outside of the random voting stage and occurs only when a player votes, but provides no justification relevant to the vote. The counter-voting action contained in OMGUS is far more common, especially just

after

the random voting stage. With little data to go on out of the RVS, a player being voted for is more likely to create an 'informed' case against the player voting for him, simply because the two have likely interacted more and addressed questions to each other directly.

Two cases built against each other plays no role in OMGUS. I've actually found that the overuse of OMGUS accusations is itself a tell - scum love to remove credence from a well-built case simply because either player is voting for the other.

I definitely agree that Freeko's desperation is disintegrating his case, but I hesitate to call it a tell because I see the same simultaneous behavior in another unrelated game environment.

Hey orangepenguin - will you inform us when Pacman picks up his prod?

Yep - I've given him three days to pick it up and will prod him again 1 more time. If he doesn't respond to that second prod, I will replace him.

[Nuwen]

ITT we see appeals to emotion.

[Nuwen]

"Flavor" is anything other than standard role names and town-type theme. The fact that we're a bunch of penguins floating on a 'berg is a flavor.

Our intro is an example of flavor text:

Antarctica, the most beautiful place on Earth. With lovely weather reaching highs of -16° F, with its ice and its snow. Most importantly though, it is home to penguins of all walks of life. You live in the South Pole. Members of your colony have begun to disappear, one penguin each night. You always discover the bloody body, conspicuously placed near the edge, by the big water. sticking out in large contrast against the white snow, stained by the blood of your fallen comrade. The leader of the colony was Humboldt, an elderly and wise penguin. He has concluded that there is EVIL afoot. Predators about....a..a...a mafia. You're penguins, so you have some vision problems. Go figure. But each day, you may penguin squabble amongst yourself and decide to lynch one person, hoping to find the mafia...whoever they are..and restore peace in Antarctica, before the mafia take total control...forever.

[Nuwen]

dumbass

Did you really just ignore the brunt of this page's posts in favor of ad homming our newer replacement?

Really?

Vote: Freeko

- L-2

[Nuwen]

That's true. I kept mistyping HowardRoark and just decided to pull another identifier out of my ass. I should make it very clear that feeko earned my vote because:

1. An ad hom attack took precedence over addressing real questions. Ad homs are unacceptably anti-town to begin with - Freeko is attempting to counter HR's posts by insulting them. Prioritizing that over all else compounds anti-town behavior upon anti-town behavior.

2. Rather than accepting opinion as opinion ("I personally support the RVS as the only effective way to start a game"), Freeko is ensuring that every statement in this game has a binary value: correct or incorrect. According to freeko, the contents and basis of every case against him are either dumb or blatantly 'incorrect.'

3. Freeko's case on DDD originally seemed sincere, but has since been wraithed into a single-minded assault with the intention of lynching DDD at any cost.

Whatever Freeko flips, I'm not positive that DDD will be the opposite alignment.

[Nuwen]

Nuwen, post #290 is a policy lynch argument, right? I only ask because you were pretty explicit about your vote for Mizz.Mafia being a policy lynch vote, whereas you haven't used the same term with the case against freeko.

Nope, 290 outlines why I believe freeko's behavior is the scummiest play thus far. His single-minded focus on DDD, emotional statements like "So if I am going to be lynched. Im going to be lynched for being an ass to everyone. NO one really cares about my alignment in the game" definitely seal my suspicion.

A policy vote usually has very little else besides a policy argument behind it. Example: lynch all liars, because lying and complex town-side gambits are 1) Detrimental to that game's town 2) Need to be purged from the meta.

(woke up still drunk from the night before, hope this post is cohesive. I read it a few times and I think it is, but that's subjective judging)

[Nuwen]

Nothing I do is ever rational.

Why would I as a scum player want to have people voting for me jackass? Seems kind of counterproductive doesnt it?

Heh. You shouldn't try to WIFOM your way out of something right after blubbing up a personality axiom.

If you have a laundry list of scum, it's best to share it now before you flip. Your higher concern for being "right" when we reach post-game analysis rather than throwing out every piece of pro-town information

now

is only adding to the anti-town landslide.

[Nuwen]

Simulpost.

No hammers before we get a claim, agreed?

[Nuwen]

EDWOP: *before we get freeko's list of suspects and a claim

(sorry for the triple post)

[Nuwen]

No hammers before we get a claim, agreed?

Aw it's sweet, you think we're getting a claim.

At least the opportunity was offered.

Instead, we got a self-hammer. Lovely.

[Nuwen]

I'd also like to point out that self-hammering is only optimal play for caught scum.

Freeko's play hasn't followed strongest play guidelines, but a self-hammer isn't making my vote go anywhere. It's either an overtly scummy tactic to end the day ASAP or some of the worst town play I've ever seen.

[Nuwen]

The only thing more absurd than self-hammering while still claiming town is faking a self-hammer while still claiming town, with a twist of "little clue as to my intent" as an explanation.

[Nuwen]

I disagree Howard. It tells us that there is a second killing role out their. So, we can keep our minds open to the possibility that a serial killer is roaming, which means watching for someone who seems particularly scummy but isn't connected to anyone else.

It's in a serial killer's best interest to play with the town during the day. A scum lynch and townie lynch both have the same value towards an SK's win condition, but actively scum-hunting has the added bonus of garnering town support and possible doc protection.

LA until Monday or Tuesday, one of my desktop's disk partitions shit out. My other partitions have experimental crap on them that I don't want to deal with, so I'll be sitting on my hands until my shiny new laptop arrives. I must also take time to mourn my lost Vig comics.

[Nuwen]

WRONG GAME! please delete!

STRING UP THE ALT.

Freeko was probably attempting to act like a cop (I see that now), but his lack of claim etc just left a bad taste in all our mouths. (Our=people who voted for him) and he was lynched. The point is: I thought Freeko was scum, and reading yesterday still produces that.

Freeko's behavior was definitely not in line with a cop's on day 1. Without an investigation result, he had no results to breadcrumb and no reason to relentlessly pursue a case on Danny at the cost of his own town appearance.

@Light-kun: No doubt that it is good to keep the second kill in mind while reading. I just wanted to bring up the fact that there are a lot of possibilities for the second kill at this point: SK, Vig, two scum teams, etc. I'm not sure how much we can learn and put to use with a discussion on it at this point.

The variety of possible setups makes discussing the kills

more

important, not less. If we have a vig (or even an SK to barter with), we increase our capacity to policy lynch without fear. Determining the motivations for each kill is important.

Danny's kill, for example, looks like the work of a vig - I doubt a smart scum team would have killed a player who earned heavy suspicion on day 1.

I need to do a reread as well; almost all of my pair/team predictions hinged on Freeko flipping scum.

[Nuwen]

I believe that both hohum

ZEEnon

and Jazzmyn

pacman281292

have to make some effort to clear themselves of their predecessors' ways.

This is a misplaced burden of proof.

Light-kun

: I'm also interested in the source of your percentage points. Creating scum lists without explanation behind each component is a tactic used to appear to be actively scumhunting while doing little to pursue scum. Even if your reads are primarily gut, could you try to isolate which sections of play give you the strongest gut feelings?

Anyway, I still lack a lead...
so...
arbitrary vote:
Vote Zeenon
I might be able to pull a crappy case together later.

I don't like this either. You placed an arbitrary (read: random) vote with the intention of "backing it up later." A town player has no reason to vote at random

and then

build a case, in order to justify their vote in retrograde. This is standard RVS scumtell and is even more noteworthy now that we're well out of the RVS. The ''because'' in pro-town play always precedes, not follows, a vote.

Light-Kun's vote on Zeenon instantly lifted when Jere suggested that he and freeko were "easy picks" in 358, citing a sudden wish to observe Zeenon's replacement.

If its vig, hm.... what should we do assuming vig? Act as though we have two votes? The serial killer might listen though I highly doubt the mafia (if there are two) will.

Good uses for a vig off the top of my head:

1. Substitute for policy lynches. The nature policy lynches makes wagon-based scumhunting very difficult. This play allows the town to pursue a genuinely scummy player, obtain wagon reads, and still kill an anti-town or detrimental player.

2. Dealing with counterclaims. In a situation where either A and B have counterclaimed, vigging one determines who is lying without sacrificing the town's wagon data that day.

3. Testing bulletproof/unkillable claims. Next to vanilla, late-game bulletproof claims are common from scum. If the player hasn't behaved superlatively pro-town or the claim can't be corroborated by a missed kill, itsa viggin' time.

We'll be able to discern an SK/second scum team from a vig in a night or two - it's not always optimal vig play to use his or her ability every night, but the former two factions will only skip a kill if forced to by a block/protect or as part of a complex gambit.

[Nuwen]

Double post removed. -Mod

[Nuwen]

Sorry for the double post. I love dorm wireless.

[Nuwen]

Honestly, this post made your percentage go up.

Why? What in 371 is more likely to be said by scum than town?

Which percent would you like explained? I am much too lazy to actually go through each one and explain it.

All of them. If you're too lazy to explain how and why you're playing this game, request a replacement.

Playing just to "elicit reactions" or "boost discussion" is another RVS scum tell. It's exponentially more scummy to use either as an explanation for behavior on day 2.

What type of reactions were you looking for/expecting?

Yes. I saw him. I saw him with my own eyes.

Light-kun - 3 (DraketheFake, Fishythefish, JereIC)
hohum - 1 (Light-kun)

Not Voting - 7 (Jazzmyn, HowardRoark, Nuwen, hohum)

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

Replacing na85..

Light-kun is L-2, two votes away from a lynch

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 378)

[Nuwen]

This is an easily testable claim. Today, we're going to pick two lynch targets. One will be vigged. We can lynch LK prior to entering LYLO if everyone is still concerned about him still being an SK. An SK that plays along with the town will find his win condition very hard to meet in the endgame; either way, town gains an extra kill. If he doesn't vig our consensus targets, we kill him the next day. I don't want to use today's lynch to test his claim - if LK really is a vig, he'll probably be nightkilled in the upcoming day or two.

[Nuwen]

If LK is a SK, he will surely be shooting for scum at this stage (even if we lynch scum that looks like the right move for him)?

If he's blocked, we can opt to lynch his target on the next day. Controlling LK's kills will force him to behave as town-aligned, SK or not. We can also ask that he hold his kill, which is a common vig tactic on days 2 and 3. If a kill occurs anyway, it'll be obvious that the vig claim was false. Either way, we neuter his possible anti-town behavior.

There is absolutely no reason for LK to shoot himself.

Scum will be paying very close attention to whomever LK expresses suspicion about - if he ever makes a strong case against a mafia member,

that's

what I'll expect a night kill. Until then, expect scum to maneuver our second kill onto town (this is why submitting a no-kill

can

be very strong vig play).

[Nuwen]

p.s.,

FoS

in Fishy's direction. It's very anti-town to suggest that a kill ability not be handed over to the control of consensus. The only reasons to support sovereign kills from LK:

1. Second scum team pair, attempting to free themselves from town-dictated kills.

2. Absolute trust in LK's judgment.

The former is plausible, the latter is naive.

[Nuwen]

p.s.,

FoS

in Fishy's direction. It's very anti-town to suggest that a kill ability not be handed over to the control of consensus. The only reasons to support sovereign kills from LK:

1. Second scum team pair, attempting to free themselves from town-dictated kills.

2. Absolute trust in LK's judgment.

The former is plausible, the latter is naive.

3. As I've already stated; to keep the scum in the dark.
I haven't run across this situation before. Perhaps it accepted wisdom, but I don't think it's clear that it is anti-town not to hand over a known kill ability; yes, maybe the town will choose better targets than L-k alone, but we have the disadvantage of having to declare our intentions. I don't have to have absolute trust in L-k; as long as he has the same motives as us, he can make slightly worse decisions than the town as a whole, and the result is still better.
In what situation do you think the town's interests and L-k's interests will not be aligned tonight?

The point of controlling his kills isn't to pick "better" targets - it's to ensure that his play is completely conducted by the town, while also giving us a chance to observe scummy attempts to have him vig town. We have no way to ensure that his motives are pro-town without injecting our own motives into his kill choices. LK's personal kill choices will be incorporated into whatever consensus we reach.

[Nuwen]

Insurance, basically. His interests may align with the town's, which is lovely. In the event they don't, we'll be steering his kills (or lack of kills) with the threat of a lynch.

[Nuwen]

Backtracking to yesterday's mislynch.

(

Debonair Danny DiPietro

, HowardRoark,

Light-kun

, Fishythefish, Nuwen, DraketheFake, JereIC)

History of votes on freeko:

L-6: Fishy - 143.

I think this attack is another stretch from freeko, going too hard after a light-hearted post.

{...}

All in all, I think freeko’s attack on DDD is overdone.
Because I think his attacks are contrived,

vote: freeko

L-5: DDD - 183

I've Given you chance after chance to repond to my accusations and arguments in a fair fashion, because I believe that's best for the town, but you seem to have absolutely no interest in open dialogue and merely continue to parrot the same tired lines. Ultimately, your unwillingness or inability to defend yourself and your points leads me to one course of action. So...

Unvote
Vote: Freeko

L-6: Fishy - 212. Unvoted, placed vote on DDD.

L-5: Howard - 227

vote freeko

im gonna be watching you, drake.

I see this as distancing since there has been no real interaction with DraketheFake even though there has been some questionable play from him. He even states that DraketheFake's play is at least as poor as Debonair Danny DiPietro . . .

you are quantifying your play thru Drake as being town because it is apparently terrible. I can agree that it is terrible.

Meanwhile they are both on the Debonair Danny DiPietro BW.

L-4: Light-Kun - 230

{...}

Unvote; Vote Freeko

I believe his last post is scumhunting, thus your post is a lie.

• (confirming vote, more case in 244)

I call "I win with town" as a plea to majority, which is scummy in my book.

I was getting a slight "survivor" vibe off of him, but if he were, I'm pretty sure claiming it would result in his lynch anyway. And...

Hm... You still lie, you still say he did zero scum hunting. I see some.

Vote Freeko

L-3: Fishy - 271

I agree that freeko's position has turned into a nonsense. freeko, you need to seriously reconsider your position on DDD. You are suffering from extreme confirmation bias, in which you automatically see DDD's posts nonsense. 262 reads like it is a token attempt to look like you are open-minded, without any actual intention of reconsidering your position. You are actively harming your case against DDD. You read like a scum desperately trying to get a townie lynched, or a hopelessly tunnelled townie.

unvote, vote freeko

L-2: Nuwen - 288

Did you really just ignore the brunt of this page's posts in favor of ad homming our newer replacement?

Really?

Vote: Freeko

- L-2

• (continues in 290) and 295

1. An ad hom attack took precedence over addressing real questions. Ad homs are unacceptably anti-town to begin with - Freeko is attempting to counter HR's posts by insulting them. Prioritizing that over all else compounds anti-town behavior upon anti-town behavior.

2. Rather than accepting opinion as opinion ("I personally support the RVS as the only effective way to start a game"), Freeko is ensuring that every statement in this game has a binary value: correct or incorrect. According to freeko, the contents and basis of every case against him are either dumb or blatantly 'incorrect.'

3. Freeko's case on DDD originally seemed sincere, but has since been wraithed into a single-minded assault with the intention of lynching DDD at any cost.

{...}

His single-minded focus on DDD, emotional statements like "So if I am going to be lynched. Im going to be lynched for being an ass to everyone. NO one really cares about my alignment in the game" definitely seal my suspicion.

L-1: DtF - 308

How much fun is it going to be for you to read the equivalent of 7 other players collectively shrugging their shoulders and pointing to how abrasive and useless you've been all day?

Nothing I do is ever rational.

Vote: freeko

. L-1, etc.

• (earlier noteworthy post at 276)

You are actively harming your case against DDD.

You read like a scum desperately trying to get a townie lynched, or a hopelessly tunnelled townie.

Ugh. This this this.

But I don't know that I agree with your vote.

It seems that both instances are equally likely, and freeko is the sort of hypothetical townie that a scum being wagoned love to have pop up.

Which isn't a strike against DDD, obviously, but these sorts of interactions are rarely good for the town unless he really is just a scum playing in a bizarre fashion.

• Want to note 309 too.

Why would I as a scum player want to have people voting for me jackass?

Forgot this gem. As a scum player you wouldn't want to have players voting for you, which means that you might

stop being an abrasive douchebag and actually play the goddamn game

in order to avoid having even more votes put on you. And no, repeatedly whining about DDD "backpedaling" doesn't count as playing.

Fake Hammer: Freeko - 314.

vote freeko

Bite me.

freeko DID NOT unvote before he voted. He is still at L-1.

L-2: Howard - 319

unvote freeko

I want to take away the chance of the self vote hammer. My hopes? That if you are town, freeko, that you share any other insights that you have.

L-1: Howard - 325.

Backtrack.

SOLD!

vote freeko

Hammer: Jere 329

Screw it

Vote: freeko

The initial claim request: Nuwen - 311

I know why the caged

bird

sings.

hohum - 1 (Light-kun)

Not Voting - 8 (Jazzmyn, HowardRoark, Nuwen, hohum, Fishythefish, JereIC, DraketheFake, na85)

9 alive, 5 to lynch.

-Mod

(Vote Count accurate as of Post 408)

[Nuwen]

Things I noticed:

1. At L-1, Howard still acknowledged the possibility that freeko was town. However, his lynch wasn't policy-based. Coddling plausible town alignment

while hopping on and off of the wagon

.

2. DtF said "freeko is the sort of hypothetical townie that a scum being wagoned love to have pop up," which is very true. Scum love scummy town. But as a followup, DtF advised freeko to knock off the abrasive player, because town players were interpreting it as a scumtell.

3. The final half of the wagon seems to be based around freeko's rabid outbursts at Fishy's L-6 and L-5 votes, culminating in a hammer instigated by the "balls on chin claim."

(

Debonair Danny DiPietro

, HowardRoark,

Light-kun

, Fishythefish, Nuwen, DraketheFake, JereIC)

I think at least one of the later votes is from scum, to push freeko's wagon forward while halting DDD's (temporarily?). While freeko was at L-4, DDD still had a competing wagon on him:

Debonair Danny DiPietro

- 4 (DraketheFake,

freeko

, JereIC, Fishythefish)

freeko

- 3 (

Debonair Danny DiPietro

, HowardRoark,

Light-kun

)

All non-confirmed town votes on DDD's wagon eventually ended up contributing to freeko's lynch. Twin mislynch wagons is too much of a coincidence to ignore; both of these were probably shoved along by scum. There aren't enough confirmed town players to deduce which switches from DDD -> Freeko are likely to come from scum, but keep this event noted.

[Nuwen]

Clarifying/correction. Again, sorry about the post spam. Need moar coffees.

Things I noticed:

1. At L-1, Howard still acknowledged the possibility that freeko was town. However, his lynch wasn't policy-based. Coddling plausible town alignment

while hopping on and off of the wagon

- weird distancing? Apprehensive play?

2. DtF said "freeko is the sort of hypothetical townie that a scum being wagoned love to have pop up," which is very true. Scum love scummy town. But as a followup, DtF advised freeko to knock off the abrasive player, because town players were interpreting it as a scumtell.

3. The final half of the wagon seems to be based around freeko's rabid outbursts at Fishy's L-6 and L-5 votes, rather than real cases, culminating in a hammer instigated by the "balls on chin claim." It's very easy to seize emotional play and turn it into a damning tell.

(

Debonair Danny DiPietro

, HowardRoark,

Light-kun

, Fishythefish, Nuwen, DraketheFake, JereIC)

I think at least one of the later votes is from scum, to push freeko's wagon forward while halting DDD's (temporarily?). While freeko was at L-4, DDD still had a competing wagon on him:

Debonair Danny DiPietro

- 4 (DraketheFake,

freeko

, JereIC, Fishythefish)

freeko

- 3 (

Debonair Danny DiPietro

, HowardRoark,

Light-kun

)

All non-confirmed town votes on DDD's wagon eventually ended up contributing to freeko's lynch. Twin mislynch wagons is too much of a coincidence to ignore; both of these were probably shoved along by scum. There aren't enough confirmed town players to deduce which switches from DDD -> Freeko are likely to come from scum, but keep this event noted.

[Nuwen]

On 3)- I'm not sure I understand. I didn't make an L-5 vote, and my L-6 vote was much earlier than the wagon and I don't think it was referenced again?

Eeek, more mistypings. That should read as:

3. The final half of the wagon seems to be based around freeko's rabid outbursts at Fishy's and DDD's L-6 and L-5 votes, culminating in a hammer instigated by the "balls on chin claim."

I definitely need to do another closer read of pages ~7 or 8 through the end of day one; don't let me forget to respond to your point about the paired wagons. I

think

LK's vote switch from DDD to Freeko in 212 might have been the trigger for any scum support on DDD's wagon to dissolve and rebuild itself on Freeko's. Prior to LK's dropped case, both wagons were healthy.

[Nuwen]

Okay.

Sleep first,

then

I'll do another reread. Thanks Fishy. :p

[Nuwen]

Corpses don't sleep as well as I did. To anyone catching up,

pay attention to the corrections that followed my wall 'o text.

A note on vote analysis: L-k here thinks I am scum based solely on a vote- apparently independently of context. Myself, I think think my switch was both justified and explained. I think it is likely that the reason the DDD wagon turned into a freeko wagon was because during day 1

DDD got less scummy and freeko got more scummy

.

Case analysis is less useful when the lynched town player behaved in a genuinely scummy manner. A player of any alignment could have built a case against freeko; no one is going to argue that his play wasn't highly anti-town. Instead, we're forced to discern which votes on his wagon were most opportunistic. Scum love scummy town.

Because DDD's play began to become more pro-town, he would have proved comparitively more difficult to push to mislynch than freeko. This is why shifts from DDD's wagon to freeko's merit attention. There were three switches - probability says that some of those switches were made from a pro-town perspective. Again, we need to determine which switch was opportunistic.

Jazz expressed surprise that DDD's wagon advanced as far as it did. It's very likely that if the early support of DDD's lynch and the late support of freeko's lynch align, those votes came from scum.

Also, if Drake the Fake is scum, Nuwen is scum. They look connected.

Jazz- I'll be very surprised if scum, but this is not impossible.

Like your percentages, I'm having a hard time figuring out how you've come to both of these conclusions. Could you up your analysis transparency a little? I don't know why you're still playing with your cards held to your chest.

Hohum: post, even if your analysis only covers a small portion of the game. I don't like having a player in my blind spot.

[Nuwen]

Like your percentages, I'm having a hard time figuring out how you've come to both of these conclusions. Could you up your analysis transparency a little? I don't know why you're still playing with your cards held to your chest.

Hohum: post, even if your analysis only covers a small portion of the game. I don't like having a player in my blind spot.

I'm basing it off of generalities, so no not really.

I was hoping you could at least give us an example of patterns & tones you've noticed. Near-gut reads are difficult to explain, but they're the mind's unconscious reaction to subtle discrepancies or tells. Being able to pursue and explain a gut feeling is an important mafia skill.

[Nuwen]

Mod: please prod

Drake (hasn't posted for a week) and Nuwen (hasn't posted for six days).

Regards,
Jazz

Sorry, marathon weekend commanded my attention. I'll be catching up after I'm done with this round of papers.