Mini 763 - Carnival Mafia - Game Over

[WeyounsLastClone]

I'm going for the Siamese twin. It's been a couple of months since my last game of mafia, so a lot of names don't ring a bell.

I'll

Vote: Debonair Danny DiPietro

because he even has a longer name than I have.

[WeyounsLastClone]

I'm going for the Siamese twin.

Explain.

A random comment to follow up on the bearded lady. A Siamese twin was the first thing to come to mind regarding a carnivale. Other than evil clowns. The comment was before I read the flavor opening though, where it seems the entire freakshow is gone and killed. Makes for an interesting opening of the game, and difficult to see what we're up against.

For now I'll

Unvote. Vote: Datadanne.

I kinda dislike double posts. If it were meaningful posts I could live with it, but at the moment his comments on this game seem a bit erratic.

[WeyounsLastClone]

@ Datadanne: for as far I see DDD has set his mind to lynch you to do, and all you do after is some one sentence comments that don't help us any further. Can you please prove DDD wrong, and help us to a more fruitful day 1?

I'm against a policy lynch of Datadanne. The dynamics in voting without restricting to just 1 person will give us much more information later on. DDD, you somehow argue that lynching Datadanne would give us about 25% chance to lynch scum, but that's just flawed logic. There are the same possibilities here as in other games, the mafia undeniably has a hand in who gets lynched day 1 (for example say you were mafia and this is a set up), so the chances here, as in any other games, is not 0%, but also not equal to the '# scum'/ 'total # players'.

[WeyounsLastClone]

That theory is mighty fine, if not for the possibility that you were scum. I'm still wondering of one thing. Suppose we lynch Datadanne and he turns out to be town, you know you will get the heat and be first to look at day 2. And that's not something you want as scum. But also not as a townie. So that's a bit difficult to grasp at the moment. Two explanations at the moment are that you're a townie who just thinks it's a good idea or possibly DD and DDD are both scum and with DDD running DD's lynch might clear DDD in the long run. But that second theory is a bit farfetched for now.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Hate to do what I said that I disliked (double posting_, but my post was in response to DDD's post 63.

Now I'm on the topic of double posting. Sometimes it's necessary to clarify, or if something jumps to mind after you posted. That said, just double posting while with a bit more thought you could have put it in one post, puts me of a bit.

[WeyounsLastClone]

First of all, there are 11 players, not 12. Now you could use that as an argument that the ‘random chance’ increases from 25% to 27%, but I don’t believe in random in Mafia. I rather think it means the mafia has a bigger influence.

While I don’t agree with DDD’s approach, I don’t think it warranted a L-1 so early in the game. We would let the thing we wanted to avoid with DD happen to DDD. I think scum was trying to gain momentum against DDD somehow. I also think it’s not time yet to claim for DDD. Requesting he claims at this point is just fishing. What would we gain from knowing his role at the moment? If he’s scum he could make something up that make us hesitate to lynch him, if he’s town and he has an useful role it would leave him vulnerable to scum.

To answer questions on my vision on double posting: I don’t think double posting on its own is a scumtell. I do think however that scum is more likely to double post than town. Scum can only pretend to be town, so they think by themselves ‘am I acting like a townie?’, which makes them go back to their posts and possibly adjust themselves. Also, when the multiple posts are kind of erratic and in different directions, it might point to scum who’s just trying to point out as much as possible so something sticks.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Datadanne, can you please not prove DDD to be right with his plan to lynch you? It'd be a great start to get your top two or three suspects, and reasons why.

[WeyounsLastClone]

DDD, do you think if there would be only one scum he/she would slip up with posting the actual number of scum (in this case a percentage)? Could be but I highly doubt it, as well as I doubt there'd be only one scum. Sure there people on their own against town, but there'd definately be multiples of them then.

@Kairyuu: who is 'Current Meta', and are you let him join this game? J/k I find 'meta' a bit vague and disturbing, and I don't think anyone should use it. Too much excuses can be made when using 'meta' as an argument. I don't think good scum would bound themselves by it.

I would rather like to see more people pressure Datadanne. Perhaps if he could be put at L-3 or L-2 he would either start to talk, or would be pissed and ask for a replacement, either which is good for the game. So I'll leave my vote where it is now, and hope more people follow. Otherwise I'd change my vote to lixyl, who posts one sentence conveniently joining the most common bandwagon at that moment.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Well, I guess Datadanne made the choice for me while I was typing up my own post. I'll wait and see if he's really out though, you never know.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Unvote

He seems a whole lot more valuable to the game than DD. His first analysises (i'm sure that's not the right plural, but okay) seemed coherent and helpful for town.

Vote: Grimmy

This has to do with lixyl's last (and about only) post. Just voting without reason, whahuh? So Grimmy: welcome to the game and looking forward for reasons not to vote you.

[WeyounsLastClone]

@DDD: I don't think getting yourself at L-1 in two pages gives you bragging rights.

I don't know what Shanba is doing, but 'we might as well lynch randomly' seems awfully familiar and awfully disappointing to start day 2 with. Coupled with Datadanne's behavior before Shanba, I'm gonna

vote: Shanba

.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Hmm, missed the smiley in Shanba's post. (but my vote still stands for even uttering the words 'random lynch'... )

[WeyounsLastClone]

I guess I was just a bit disappointed in Shanba in the way that he posted a lot of interesting content on day 1, and then he starts with not much more than a random comment (which contains the words 'random lynch', something that I think was talked about enough, whether in a funny way or not) on day 2. There is a reasonable decent explanation for Grimmy, but I don't like how he expresses his meaning on an eventual Nocmen lynch, seems it could be used too much as a fallback.

I don't really like the ease with which DDD is switching his vote. As for my absence the rest of day 1: real life didn't leave me much time for mafia, and another game I was in (War in Heaven II) took that time because I was about to be eliminated there.

[WeyounsLastClone]

PBPA on WLC

7~Random vote--null
27~OMGUS vote on Datadanne for double posting (what a crime!)--slightly scummy

It was DD's erratic behavior that made him double post, and that made me vote him. I think I already explained that double posting on its own isn't scummy behavior, but I think in general scum would have more reason to double post (that is, to get back on previous posts and explain things better) than town.

62~says he does not want a policy lynch of Data (vote remains, total votes at 3), mildly questions DDD vote plan--overall null
65~questions what will happen if data flips town, will DDD not be the next target? Says he wouldn't want it to happen if he was town or scum.Says bussing is a possibility, but highly unlikely. --wonder why bussing would be that unlikely, but null overall
66~confused as to the reason for this double post and if WLC would chastise himself for it--scummy by WLC standards

Reason for double posting: I was posting a response to DDD. I was expecting it to be placed directly under DDD's post it was a response for. After posting, I noticed someone had posted in between. For clarity I added that information, and it was a good time to explain my stance on double posting a bit more since I made a comment of it before. Attacking me on double posting now is just too easy.

99~corrects player count (useful). Says he doesn't agree with DDD's approach (vote remains, only he remains at this point not even DDD is voting). Says DDD shouldn't be at L-1 early in the game and should not role claim. protown suggestion, but a safe bet considering other players had already said it. Says double posting is not a sign of scum, but then explains how it might be.--bordering on scummy
107~Tells Data to post content--null
124~defends my math slip (obvtown!), thoughts on meta (not really content), and then I will just quote this part:

I would rather like to see more people pressure Datadanne. Perhaps if he could be put at L-3 or L-2 he would either start to talk, or would be pissed and ask for a replacement, either which is good for the game. So I'll leave my vote where it is now, and hope more people follow. Otherwise I'd change my vote to lixyl, who posts one sentence conveniently joining the most common bandwagon at that moment.

obvscum! simulpost with data asking for replacement, but still trying to push that rock. Asks for town to follow on a player with no real content when other discussions could have been joined (ortolan, nocumen, DDD and I all had such going), and then says that if that wagon doesn't gain momentum he'll just jump to lixyl. --most scummy post he made all game

I don't know what dictionary you use to for the term 'obvscum', but I'd certainly recommend getting a new one. Datadanne at that moment was acting quite irresponsibly, and not helpful to town. Datadanne was a player in this game as much as anyone else, so I found it important to get use out of him. If that meant pressuring him by voting, I felt that necessary. Now, if I was the only one with that opinion, clearly that wouldn't help the game. Because DD wouldn't do anything differently just because there was lonely vote place on him. At that point I found lixyl the second most scummy person.

125~glad Data is gone (who wasn't)--null
142~unvotes Shanba because his cases are more protown. switches vote to Grimmy for lixyl actions. Apart from switching votes to someone before they posted in a game, I found it odd that that this is finally the point he would decide to switch his vote after leaving it on the basically none present Data all day.--slightly scummy

Not much to say here, I guess.

Sorry, but if this is your case, I don't feel there's not much for me to defend, because all of this were just my reactions/stances to the situations in the game up til that point. I think quite logical reactions. But if you have any other questions, let me know and I'll try to explain.

I'm not sure why VP Baltar was voting me on day 1 based on this case. I'm pretty sure such a post-list with some posts that have a slight hint of scumminess in it can be made on everyone in the game, and there are other players with more scummy posts or behavior than I have. DDD's random lynch thingy. Lixyl with the bare amount of posting, conveniently joining DDD's wagon and nothing else. DD's very unhelpful behavior. Nocmen's role.

[WeyounsLastClone]

2) I voted him for his sheer obliviousness, clearly he's not an asset to the town.

Not an asset to the town as in you know that I'm a townie but you don't think I say something useful, or as in you actually think my behavior is scummy?

That's saying quite a thing of someone who wanted a random lynch yesterday, and who started day 2 with bragging about something that was actually stupid.

[WeyounsLastClone]

I really don't think DDD is really all that helpful at the moment (but I'm neither with my lack of posting, sorry for that), but lynching him isn't the best option I guess at this point.

At this point, I find VP Baltar quite suspicious. I feel he's a bit grasping at straws, and he tries to have other people decide who to lynch (which clears him if the lynch might turn wrong).

I'll reread the thread more thoroughly tomorrow or the day after, and hope to have a bit more explanation. For now,

unvote. Vote VP Baltar.

[WeyounsLastClone]

First, there's the thing of his 8.33%. Now, I don't think someone part of a scumgroup would make this mistake. I found it actually more strange people get the number of players wrong. But VP wasn't the only one.

Then to something which I actually found suspicious about him.

Also, everyone should be aware that DDD is currently at L-1. Please mind your votes.

A bit of a strange thing to say, when you're one of the ones voting.

Then the following two posts:

After making my original post I quickly realized that my math was wrong because it only factored in there being one scum. I have no idea how many there are, but you guys are most likely closer to being correct at 25% than I am. Guess it is best to think things through before posting.

I'm not sure why he says 'quickly realized'. I think he was called upon.

Honestly, I wasn't even thinking about the number of scum. I was thinking about you saying a random selection of a person (datadanne)...as in 1 out of 12 (which is actually 11 as corrected by WLC).

I'm not sure about 'wasn't thinking about the number of scum'. Actually seems a townie mistake upon further consideration.


Then he comes reasonably out of the blue with a 'case' on me, and a vote. I already responded on that PBP, and I don't think it's strong. I found it strange he singled out my posts, and didn't really say why I was scummier than others.

Unvote, Vote:Nocmen (L-3) I think we could use some more pressure here.

This after he finds me suspicious for trying to pressure DD. I don't know why pressuring DD would be more scummy than pressuring Nocmen.

Simulpost...regardless, willing to believe the claim at this point. Chief is more confirmed scum in my eyes anyhow. Unvote, Vote: ChiefSkye4

LMFAO Unvote, Vote ChiefSkye4

These posts he made after each other with no posts in between. I'd think you'd remember switching your votes somehow.

One thing I think you should look at Kairyuu is Nocmen's interaction with Chief yesterday. I looked back over it and it comes off town to me. He was one of the first to push chief for her slip ups.

Switches from Nocmen being really town, to being really scum, to being town again no day 2.

reading emp's posts I don't see anything that indicates he has an investigative power, nor do I think we should be speculating on it until the town comes to an agreement that we should do so.

Shanba, it was you who made the case on Grimmy I think, do you think he should be today's lynch? WLC? DDD?

These are examples what I meant with having someone else decide. Leaving things in others hands.

Then

I'm not claiming anything, and you shouldn't be rolefishing. I have an idea of what you are in this game, and everyone should ignore your really bad play. You don't come off to me as a dullard, so I think it's intentional bad play on your part and that is everyone should be ignoring you right now and focusing on finding scum.

I don't know why he should reprimand DDD for rolefishing, while VP Baltar is constantly mentioning DDD's behavior but not saying anything specific, just beating around the bush. DDD was just as justified for his question, than VP is in his stance on DDD behavior (which I actually support).

After reading again though, I also came across some early interaction with Chief.

So, to prevent that, I request that everyone weigh in (if you haven't already) on the Datadanne situation and your views on random voting. Let's get this ball really rolling, peeps. :p

meh.

Also, sounds like you are trying to direct the discussion towards Data while sort of playing both sides of the argument until town form an opinion.

(among some other early posts)

In light of Chief being scum, something like this actually pleads for VP being town, as I doubt scum would distance this early in the game in this way.

That said, I still find VP's behavior the most scummy. Could be a case of OMGUS because he singled me out somehow, but I really think he's playing a game (well, we all are, but you know what I mean).

[WeyounsLastClone]

Everyone should unvote DDD. Discussing his role at this moment leads to nothing but WIFOM and derails real scumhunting.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Anyway, notice how WLC did his disappearing act again yesterday, only to appear after the lynch and try to look town?

Vote: WLC

WTF, two posts in, and I'm already at two votes? Granted, you unvoted, but the intention is clear. Honestly, I thought DDD was at L-1, and was frustrated because everyone focused so much on DDD.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Finally, we are not in lylo as far as I know (assuming 3 person scumgroup), so if the scum come in and quicklynch WLC (assuming he is not scum) then they will be revealing themselves just to get lynched D4 and D5. Plus, if you think he's scum then why would you hesitate?

That's an awfully simplified version of the situation. It pretends neither you or VP Baltar are scum, and the actual scum would be so stupid to actually lynch me with a 3rd and 4th vote.

[WeyounsLastClone]

You mean that you were in agreement with me yesterday that people should have been ignoring him?

Yes. I didn't want to bring up the Jester-thing because it derails a game, and you can't be sure of anything anymore. That's why I didn't really like the interaction between you and DDD. But I agreed with you on the ignoring part.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Jester lynch is good.

Why why why? Basically first place is gone now, and we're only fighting for a second place now. Also the Jester is not part of the scumgroup, with a Jester-lynch, it gives scum another night to kill. I really don't understand why you're requoting yourself.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Popcorn Vendor:

What came into my head was that if there was no night kill any given night, then the crowds would appear for the show and Nocmen would be given a ability to use.
again,
Purely speculation, but I wanted to share.

Why wouldn't there be a kill at night? I assume mafia would kill every night, save some lucky doc protection

So now I ask for thoughts as to why Shanba was targeted last night, and what, if any, info can we get from the D³ lynch?

I really don't like how everyone is satisfied with the DDD lynch. At this point I find Kairyuu the most suspicious. Because his stance on DDD, and how it wasn't bad. Also, he starts mentioning LyLo left and right now, which I kinda feel is used to scare townies. And he starts day 3 right of the bat with a vote on me, where before he didn't mention any real arguments. It felt a bit he hoped that together with VP's he could get the ball rolling against me.

again
V/LA until monday-tuesday if i didnt post it here before

Grimmy[/quote]

[WeyounsLastClone]

Sorry, I was quoting Grimmy's post, and forgot to remove the last 3 lines. Please ignore them.

[WeyounsLastClone]

You mean that you were in agreement with me yesterday that people should have been ignoring him?

Yes. I didn't want to bring up the Jester-thing because it derails a game, and you can't be sure of anything anymore. That's why I didn't really like the interaction between you and DDD. But I agreed with you on the ignoring part.

I already explained why I didn't jump in on the Jester-thing. The more people talk about a Jester (or suggest it), the more dangerous it becomes. There were already too many posts between VP and DDD on this subject. If I joined, it would only put more oil on the fire, and give DDD more playroom. Unfortunately, people were stupid enough to walk right into DDD's scheme.

At this point I think Kairyuu is playing a very clever game. He's tries to operate with VP's support.

That said, I think Empking sealed his fate with the claim. It's quite a predictable claim, and the worst thing is he slipped up in claiming. It's kind of fishy how he targeted Shanba (who left the game that night) and Emp is unaffected. This, and the fact Emp seems to step us his game, makes me feel he thinks he is in danger as scum, and he actually has to make sense to stop us from lynching him.

Vote: Empking

[WeyounsLastClone]

You mean that you were in agreement with me yesterday that people should have been ignoring him?

Yes. I didn't want to bring up the Jester-thing because it derails a game, and you can't be sure of anything anymore. That's why I didn't really like the interaction between you and DDD. But I agreed with you on the ignoring part.

I already explained why I didn't jump in on the Jester-thing. The more people talk about a Jester (or suggest it), the more dangerous it becomes. There were already too many posts between VP and DDD on this subject. If I joined, it would only put more oil on the fire, and give DDD more playroom. Unfortunately, people were stupid enough to walk right into DDD's scheme.

At this point I think Kairyuu is playing a very clever game. He's tries to operate with VP's support.

That said, I think Empking sealed his fate with the claim. It's quite a predictable claim, and the worst thing is he slipped up in claiming. It's kind of fishy how he targeted Shanba (who left the game that night) and Emp is unaffected. This, and the fact Emp seems to step us his game, makes me feel he thinks he is in danger as scum, and he actually has to make sense to stop us from lynching him.

Vote: Empking

[WeyounsLastClone]

sorry for the double post, my browser had a hickup

[WeyounsLastClone]

WLC: Can you claim? People want you to.

I can claim, but I'd rather not do so at the moment. If the mass-claim continues, I will claim after after Kairyuu can supposedly 'confirm his towniness'.

WLC: Why do you consider a reporter claim predictable?

A Newspaper reporter somehow feels a bit out of place to me. I'd rather think that you could have the reporter role, but it would have a different name or something. Maybe you're a Mafia role investigator, so you can check if people have a role that lets them act at night, so you can 'prove' the correctness of your investigation.

WLC: Why would I have been affected?

I thought something happened to a reporter that was investigating the house of someone who was targeted by scum, but I checked the role, and was mistaken.

WLC: How have I "stepped up [my] game"?

You're acting and reacting more.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Sorry about the confusion on my presence/absence. I was quoting grimmy, and didn't delete the last three lines (as stated in the post directly after it). I'm still present, and actually have more access than usual for the next couple of day (until I have to get to work again on tuesday).

If people want to have me claim first that's understandable. I'd still rather not have the whole claim-thing, but since Kairyuu claimed I'd be willing to claim now when people think I should claim before VP.

That said, I absolutely don't see how Kairyuu's claim marks him as obvtown. There are so many ways he could achieve the vote on Grimmy (redirect a vote, buy a vote, an extra vote for Mafia, although that's unlikely like he said).

[WeyounsLastClone]

I'm running the gun show at the carnival. Being the grizzled war veteran, I've had enough of fighting in wars, and joined the carnival. Now because lots of my money went to booze and women I need the Puppeteers gone so I can still make money.
The role associated is the one-shot vig.

Using your vig night 1 is just too dangerous in my opinion. Night 2 I was at a loss if I should use it, and if so, on who. Sure I suspected VP the most, but I still wasn't sure enough, because he also had some things that deep down make me think he could be town.

@VP. How would you prove you're town? Surely you don't mean that bread crumb of yours is proving you're town?

@Kairyuu. What I find strange about your double vote is that you can spread it over two different persons. You just have a vote you can use through pm's that you can switch at any time, and use any number of times during a day? Is there a cost/restriction involved?

[WeyounsLastClone]

So now we're waiting for Shinnen to claim? And hopefully Grimmy when he gets back tuesday.

Also, your claims sounds kind of sketchy. A grizzled war veteran in 1829 Germany? So you fought in the war of German Unification? Seems a bit farcical to me. That being said, it could seemingly balance having a Jester.

I've fought in the American War of 1812, and in the Napoleon wars.

How does my claim sound sketchy? I believe, in a way, that a vanilla claim is more sketchy than a claim with a role. You have it easy with no role and corresponding actions (or lack thereof) to explain. And selling waffles? Believable but farfetched. Just something a scum can claim without being in too much danger that a townie would be a waffle vendor. I'm not saying you're scum, but you've certainly not proved you're town yet. I really don't like the way Kairyuu and you are teaming up.

And Kairyuu, just for confirmation that there aren't any restrictions on your double vote, can you put the vote on another player that has 0 votes at the moment (until the next vote count)?

[WeyounsLastClone]

Will be awaiting next vote count, but thanks Kairyuu in advance. For some reason I'd like to think you're scum, but anything you can do to prove you're not would be great I guess. And thanks for the references. Do you also have references to games where you were scum?

About my role: without going into dangerous territory again with analyzing pm's, those two wars were actually mentioned. I suppose a waffle guy has a less spectacular background than a war veteran. Or you're hiding something.

[WeyounsLastClone]

@Empking, what do you think of the other claims? Which ones do you think are believable or not? In the case you flip town if you get lynched, who do you find the most suspicious at the moment and why?

[WeyounsLastClone]

I'm a bit wary of the prostitute claim. I'm also a bit wary of Kairyuu desperately wanting to be the one to hammer. He already fulfilled my extra request for a proof. It almost feels like Kairyuu has some sort of win condition that depends on a hammer.

And grimmy, if you're really a town roleblocker, I think you should block Kairyuu if Emp flips town. If Emp flips scum, I think you should target one of the two claiming vanilla. Somehow it feels they're playing it safe.

[WeyounsLastClone]

I don't feel I'm jumpy. I just find it stupid to block about the only townie who seems to have a nightpower.

Also, grimmy has a point about the night results. During night 1 ortolan was obviously killed by the Puppeteers, if you go by the flavor is written. Night 2 seemed the puppeteers didn't actually get their nightkill. If we're to believe grimmy blocked Kairyuu, that's certainly something to investigate.

And bringing up DDD and him being a even-day jester isn't really a great idea to prove your point. It just proves that things can be different than they seem.

[WeyounsLastClone]

Thanks, SP, great game! And great play town (except for lynching DDD, I'd have NK'ed him night 2 if he wasn't lynched)!

And VP/Kairyuu, what in my behavior was scummy? I often get people to think I act suspicious when I'm actually town, so any advice to prevent that in the future would be welcome!

[WeyounsLastClone]

Yeah, should have explicitly backed you on the Jester thing. I just didn't want to mention the possibility of a Jester because that always somehow derails scumhunting because you get too paranoid.

Also, somehow I didn't think the lynch of DDD wouldn't go that quick. I thought he needed 6 votes, but that was my mistake. I was a bit confused when the actual vote count showed 6 at a certain point, when there were only 5 on the wagon (don't know if Kai already used his extra vote at that point). I don't really like Jesters in a game, but in a Carnival game it is almost a given I suppose.

And I don't know if it was OMGUS or something, but for some reason I just couldn't get myself to trust Kairyuu, even though he proved himself. In the end I thought he was somekind of Magician, or Illusionist, who could influence the vote count.

Luckily the game ended, because I don't know if I'd have used my Vig-shot this night. I was really thinking of using it on either Nocmen or Kairyuu.