Vengeful 5p - Open 158: Game over before 829

[Hoopla]

What was your mistake?

Obviously voting his Godfather.

Vote: semioldguy

[Hoopla]

dog

Vote: semioldguy

[Hoopla]

Good morning. Seems like random voting with so few players could be quite risky. So how do we get this party started?

Speed-lynching favours scum, especially in this set-up.

If all town players vow not to quick hammer, it guarentees a lengthier day, and would heavily incriminate anyone who wanted to hammer early. That should only be scum.

[Hoopla]

I'd support a system of FoS's, I think that would work best.

One of the prime balancers of this game is the Godfather role, that enables a town win early. If we put multiple players at L-1 before we have sufficient information, scum could well jump on and hammer. So yes, no putting someone at L-1 too, I'd say.

Just another reminder; it is not in the town's interest to accept their lynch to acquire the vengeful kill. Here is a good recent example of it going wrong.

[Hoopla]

Eh...quick hammering isn't really a huge risk in this setup, especally since if a townie gets quick hammered they get a venge kill.

Scum will sometimes quick hammer anyway, though, to eliminate the risk of the gf being lynched day 1.

Anyway, I don't really think we need an especally "lengthy day"; I tend to think vengeful games should move quite quickly. Just figure out the scum, nail em, bam.

We don't want to rely on the venge-kill though. If you offered scum a page 3, 3 player alive scenario with one of them alive, they'd be crazy to not take it. The best chance the town has of winning this set-up is by lynching scum D1.

[Hoopla]

Obviously lynching a scum is significantly better then venge-killing one, yes.

I'm not sure about a strict "no-voting" rule like you're trying to set up. Obv we have to be careful about putting people at lynch -1, and shouldn't without a good reason; but votes are also where you get most of your information. Also, if town people aren't willing to vote agressivly, we probably won't lynch scum today; town people need to be the ones starting bandwagons and such if we're going to be sucessfull.

That's fine, I can settle with careful voting - but if there wasn't some theory discussion or talk of precautions early, there would be more room for excuses by scum to put a player at L-1. Having some semblance of town-understanding is a good thing. When the town attempts to define pro-town motives, it forces scum to heed them, or at least compromise. I doubt anyone will quickly hammer now, or sacrifice themself to gain a venge-kill.

[Hoopla]

Scum putting a player at L-1 isn't really as big of an issue, because a town player is not likely to hammer this early knowing they would be the venge-kill and additionally that scum couldn't hammer because his vote is already on the L-1 player.

If the first vote is a townie voting a townie, there is another available scum to hammer. Really though, the town should know not to put a player at L-1 without intention to lynch, or a good reason otherwise.

[Hoopla]

The current votecount is correct

So...

Mod

, I'm mostly just curious, but why didn't the vote in post 16 count? Are you using some kind of special voting rules?

Skim through the rules again.

[Hoopla]

Where are you guys? : (

I want to kill one of you.

[Hoopla]

Unvote: semioldguy

We don't need L-1 yet, especially considering my vote was placed on page 1.

[Hoopla]

Onto a proper post now I've got that unvote out of the way. Yos, those are some pretty wishy-washy assertions. I don't necessarily interpret Far_Cry's play as town behaviour. Reading through some of his other game posts, it seems he is no stranger to playing the newb card, whether intentionally or not.

@ Far_Cry: Instead of talking about your mistakes, do you know who the mafia are? Where do your current suspicions lie?

[Hoopla]

That's all well and good if you're town, Yos. It's odd being buttered up this early - it feels like you're playing with me.


Fun fact: in the 3 completed games we've been in together, you've been scum every time, and I've been town every time.

[Hoopla]

Plus, I already thought semioldguy's origional attack on you didn't make sense.

Hoopla isn't the one I am attacking for it, as Hoopla wasn't the one to suggest it in the first place, merely went along with it which earned the FoS rather than the vote. I've caught scum that way previously. What doesn't make sense about it? Voting is a power the town has to both use and analyze, and in majority. An attempt to take away that power by using other less accountable voting systems is a suspicious thing to suggest.

Yes, but even in normal games you wouldn't put a player at L-1 without excellent reason. Allowing an equally liberal voting system for this game is stupid, when scum have incentive to hammer. You don't need votes to talk.

[Hoopla]

There is a balance that can be acheived when it comes to day length and information. A longer day is always better

if

players have the time, motivation and ability to analyse it all. Most don't though - so you need a balance before noise becomes a hiding place for scum.

I don't think you can know enough in 4 or 5 pages to call the game though.


But, I'm with Yos. Lets speed this up. This thread needs more Far_Cry - stop hiding away behind your scum mistake and do something.

[Hoopla]

I agree in part wat Yosarian said.

I find semioldguy suspicious.

However, I don't know who his partner might be. I'm not entirely believing its ekim. I'll need more information.

Why? And what are you agreeing with?

[Hoopla]

I don't think semioldguy has been that suspicious - yeah there's theory disagreement, and a lack of scumhunting, but is he really that worthy of being the main suspect so far? I think he's either the goon being pushed, or a townie being pushed by scum.

Far_Cry has been quite impressionable, it almost seems as if he's trying hard to avoid ruffling feathers, particularly with the way he interacts with Yos. I don't think they'd both be obvious enough to be scum together. I can understand the innocence behind his 'scum slip' but I still don't know if it's enough solely to clear him.

Hey Far_Cry, if you don't think a semi/ekim pairing is likely, what do you think about me and Yos? You'd have to presume one of us to be scum from your perspective.

[Hoopla]

I think either Yos or Far_cry is the godfather, and is where I'll probably vote.

[Hoopla]

I think either Yos or Far_cry is the godfather, and is where I'll probably vote.

Could you explain that, hoopla?

Why, exactally, do you suspect me here?

The same reason you have found your suspects, mainly by process of elimination.

The alignment I'm most sure of, or rather, give better chances than random is semioldguy being the goon. I think it's less likely than random, ekiM is scum with semioldguy, which is why I'm currently discounting ekiM as godfather.

Far_Cry to me commits some scum tells, especially with the way he interacts with you - it seems like he is just following, afraid to commit to an unpopular position. This is also seen when he makes his 'scum slip' early, which wasn't really a scum slip. It just seems so obvious, which makes it look town, which is my main doubt. Although I have been burnt by that before.

As for you Yos, I think it would clever a position to take as godfather being the aggressor, as such, particularly in a meek, impressionable town. I see your play clearing town players early as a way to impose your opinions first, which seems a safe place for the godfather to be.

Although, the percentages between all these different scenarios are all so marginal, that it's hard to know how much better my opinions are than random chance.

[Hoopla]

As for you Yos, I think it would clever a position to take as godfather being the aggressor, as such, particularly in a meek, impressionable town. I see your play clearing town players early as a way to impose your opinions first, which seems a safe place for the godfather to be.

Well...townhunting is one of the best ways to go in a vengeful game, in my experence; in a game so small, if you can figure out one person is town, it really improves your chances.

Plus, I understand how it might get you paranoid, but me being agressive here, in a town that was otherwise kind of stalled, is the best way for me to act as town.

Anyway, I'm incresingly confident Hoopla is town here; if she was scum, and I had just declared her town, I would expect her to use that to her advantage, to buddy up with me, and to use that to get a better endgame result.

I will say that if you're pretty sure that a certain person is the goon, lynching that person is a good play. Lynching the godfather on day 1 dosn't really happen all that often, and if you lynch a goon, it gives the town 2 more days to lynch the godfather.

I don't know Yos, I think taking a punt that you're the godfather and lynching you instead would be a better play from my perspective. Another positive is that if you are actually town, I think the venge-kill would be in safer hands, than semioldguy's, who has barely participated. Convincing the town to lynch on a process of elimination play is hard to do though.

[Hoopla]

I don't know Yos, I think taking a punt that you're the godfather and lynching you instead would be a better play from my perspective. Another positive is that if you are actually town, I think the venge-kill would be in safer hands, than semioldguy's, who has barely participated. Convincing the town to lynch on a process of elimination play is hard to do though.

Anyway, it really sounds like you mostly think I'm scum because I've been active and leading the town; whereas the truth is, being active and leading the town are town tells, they're what the town should do. It's especally true in vengeful games, when every scum is hoping that two townies will get into a fight, one will get lynched, and then will vengekill the other; so scum tend to be quiet and stay out of the way.

Perhaps I am, but the percentages between random chance and my informed choices aren't that signifigant with no alignment information. If I can rule one or two people out from being the godfather, I think it's a good percentage play to take a potshot at that, because really the margin of difference between you or semioldguy isn't huge. The difference between lynching godfather or goon is. Does that make more sense?

[Hoopla]

That's kind of a defeatist attitude. It really dosn't take that much to catch scum in a game this small.

Sure, but it is very easy to be wrong, and at the end of the day, the percentages between random chance and an informed decision is slimmer than most people think. When that question pops up, people automatically cut straight to the memories of when their gut was right, but are more likely to discount times they were wrong.

That isn't important to talk about though - and I'm ready to get on with the game. I'm either going to vote for semioldguy or Yos.

I want Far-Cry to say a bit more first.

[Hoopla]

Okay, I've made my decision. Let's finish this off;

Vote: semioldguy

[Hoopla]

Anyway, none of that matters.

Semioldguy has been at lynch -1 for ages now, and is not dead. He MUST be SCUM. There is no way in hell he would still be alive here if he was town.

I agree with this statement. A townie would probably have been hammered by now. Although I was kind of still tossing up between semioldguy and Yos when I voted, I'm happy with it is now. Lets just get this over with.

[Hoopla]

Nice, at the moment, my two lynch choices are Yos and ekim, mainly based on thinking Far_Cry is the towniest. However, I do owe this game a thorough reread, so I'm not committing to anything yet.

[Hoopla]

I'm starting to disbelieve an ekiM/semi pairing, despite not ruling it out. The thing I'm wary about most is Yos forcing the connection between them as early as page two. I can really see Yosarian bussing his goon hard from the outset, but I can understand the pro-town motivations behind it too. I think paranoia is a large part behind my gut feeling for Yos, which is all it is really, a gut feeling.

ekiM's early interactions with semi seem odd - particularly semi voting his GF straight away. That seems like an uncommon thing to do in this sort of set-up, especially when semi was advocating a more liberal stance on voting. Especially when Yos was entertaining the idea of voting ekiM, and with myself and Far_Cry not ruling out an ekiM vote - it was risky to leave it there by semi. I'm not convinced ekiM is the GF.

I read one of Far_Cry's scum games when this thread first opened to try and get a handle on him. The thing I noted was how abrasive and committed he was to his feigned suspicions. It seems the opposite here - where it took a few pages to actually talk about anything other than his scum mistake. The 'scum mistake' makes sense, as we now know his early vote was for the goon, but I'm still not buying it.

I'm sorry I can't pick out scum so easily, because it really does make sense for each of you to be scum with semi, at times. I'm still leaning towards Yos, slightly ahead of Far_Cry. The closest I have to any clarity is my feeling about ekiM - I think he is town.

[Hoopla]

This thread needs more ekiM, where are you buddy? Your suspicions are important.

[Hoopla]

Hi ekiM, my up-to-date suspicions currently reside in my 145. I'm basing my reads on a kind of process of elimination. What do you think?

I read one of Far_Cry's scum games when this thread first opened to try and get a handle on him. The thing I noted was how abrasive and committed he was to his feigned suspicions. It seems the opposite here - where it took a few pages to actually talk about anything other than his scum mistake. The 'scum mistake' makes sense, as we now know his early vote was for the goon, but I'm still not buying it.

Can you link those games? Search doesn't seem to be working and he doesn't have a wiki.

Yeah, it was hard for me to find too now - but here, take a look.

[Hoopla]

Thanks for the quality analysis ekiM, what I didn't really get out of it was your main lynch choice for today and possibly tomorrow. I'll answer some questions you posed me though;

Reading her whole game in iso, she still feels pro-town, but she hasn't actually done as much pro-town stuff as I thought. I also find the uncommented decision to vote for SOG a little odd, she'd mostly been giving good reasons for everything before that. Hoopla, could you explain why you voted for SOG when you did? And why you didn't say much after that until he was lynched?

To be honest, my vote was mostly laid down out of desire to progress the game. I saw little incentive to wait on a bit more information, when I'd mostly made my decision anyway. As for the not talking afterwards bit, it was mainly because I felt I had nothing constructive to say, but when I did I made sure to post it. That really was the only thing of value at the time I salvaged from the exchanges after my vote.

The best point you raised in your analysis was Far_Cry's reluctance to hammer semioldguy. This post is especially telling in that regard.

---

I'm quite confident with my feelings about ekiM, his analysis raised good points and his interactions with semioldguy don't make sense as godfather. From my perspective, I see scum between Yos and Far_Cry - I'd prefer Far_Cry first though.

[Hoopla]

Me lol too.

Vote: Far_Cry

[Hoopla]

What....?

I took that last post by Far_Cry as a confession of being scum. I probably would have voted him anyway, but still, that was really bad. Far_Cry, you should never just give up.

I'm probably going to vote Yos today, but I'd like to at least hear from the other two before I do anything.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla

Why SOG over Yos D1?

Originally I thought one of Yos/Far-Cry was the godfather, had a town read on you, so technically the role I was surest of (by a psuedo-elimination process) was semioldguy being the goon. Then Yos talked me into voting semioldguy, rather than taking a shot the Godfather. Either way I feel like I was suckered into it.

Hoopla

You didn't direct a single question or to SOG after the theory discussion at the start. Why?

I think I kind of covered it in previous answer - my feelings for semioldguy were based on a process of elimination. At the time, I was more concerned about lynching the Godfather.

At the start of D2 you said Far_Cry was towniest. Then you said He was your second lynch choice behind Yos. Then he was your first lynch choice. Can you explain the thought process here?

I think the post you're referring to is this, which was said prior a serious reread. Here is probably where my most cohesive thoughts for Day 2 was.

You said you could really see Yos bussing SOG from the outset. What is that based on?

This is based on his experience. He wouldn't do it if he didn't think he could coast to the end-game - and it's these sort of posts that makes it looks like thinks he's cleared himself sufficiently;

You still think I'm suspicious, Hoopla? Really?

This was straight after semi's flip and I stated he was in my top 2 for the next lynch. I think he's perfectly capable of bussing semi if he expects town credit like

that

.

---

While i'm at it, I want to respond to something I missed earlier;

...

Damn. I was sure it had to be far cry, especally after his confession.

I've got a hard choice here. I was sure hoopla was town day 1, but I still don't know how likely it is that likely strangercoug would have gone after his scumbuddy, and the way Hoopla's been talking all game about how she's suspicious of me without ever really being able to explain it beyond "paranoia" seems bad, and convinent.

That isn't true - almost all my reads are done with a process of elimination in mind. I try and find the alignment I'm sure of and work from there. I admit paranoia is there, but not enough to skew my brain (thats what alcohol is for). My main reasoning is based on my town reads, which makes you scummy by default. Even if I have nothing on you that is empirically scummy, it doesn't cancel my town reads. In fact, it was you advocating that logic from as early as page two.

---

Also, I ask ekim, not to vote anyone until I'm sober please. I know I've rambled, but I have good points in there.

[Hoopla]

Well, of course when I'm town and nail scum like that, I expect town credit.

None of this stuff is arguments for my actions being more likely scum then town, Hoopla.

I guess that's the paradox in this game - doing something that would be inherantly bad for your faction is good for you in the long run.

I'm not suggesting your actions alone are more likely to be done by scum than town. The core of my argument stems from my town read on ekiM, which makes you scummy by default - I can see your play fitting the Godfather role far easier than I can of ekiM. It's as simple as that. It really is the easiest way to crack the game, and I urge ekiM to reread the game like this if hasn't already done so.

If you have any specific questions you want to ask me, please let me know, as I'm near certain you are scum and is where I will probably vote.

[Hoopla]

Assume for one moment I am town (which I am.) Is there any reason you can think of why I shouldn't vote you over eikM?

Because you would be losing the game - but this is a weird hypothetical where I have to defend myself against my town read. I

know

I am town, so this counts more, but I doubt I will be able to change your mind. I feel I've said enough in my defense, and that my reads are good as I can get them.

Although, I get the feeling this game is going to boil down to you and I voting each other, and ekiM making the decision.

[Hoopla]

I feel like even if ekiM is scum, I won't be able to talk myself into it. Both of you had unusual beginnings to game, in the way semi interacted with ekiM, and your bussing from the outset. To me it just feels like you are more capable of bussing, than the clever distancing between ekiM and semi.

[Hoopla]

Appologies B&B, expect more from me soon.

[Hoopla]

Guys, this game is going nowhere, can we just vote now? I seriously doubt we're going to glean any more information from today.

[Hoopla]

Damn, well I'm town. Hopefully Yos isn't the Godfather.

[Hoopla]

Ok, I've got a hard choice to make.

Hoopla, I asked you this before; can you think of a good reason why I should trust you over eikM?

Wow, I'm shocked. Sorry for doubting you Yos.

Honestly, even though it will lose the game for us, not really. I've been wrong most of the game, except for semioldguy. Semi's interactions with ekiM are very compelling, so credit to him for disguising his Godfather so well. The one point against ekiM is not bussing his goon, but obviously my logic on this issue was rubbish.

All I can say to defend myself is that I have been geuinely bamboozled most of the game, so I hope you can see honesty in that.

I'll vote now, so you can make your decision when you're ready.

Vote: ekiM

[Hoopla]

The only point that could help sway your opinion is that ekiM wasn't part of the semi-lynch. I'm rubbish in these situations, and feel like I look scummier regardless of whatever spin I put on ekiM's or my play, so just get it over with. We've all read the game a bundle of times, it's not like some magic, super informative post is going to spring out of nowhere.

It's a vengeful game, let's finish this off. I know my defense revolves around an appeal to emotion, but I guess this is all I have. I knowI look pure and sincere, and haven't had ulterior motives. You even thought that I was town most of the game - and I can assure you, I'm not a good liar.

I don't know any other way to stop my lynch than pleading, so I hope this is at least makes you reconsider just briefly. In case you vote me, sorry for my shoddy, subpar play.

[Hoopla]

Please don't kill me

[Hoopla]

I'm really not scum. I've been in this position before and hate it, because I feel like the evidence is stacked against me and I have no chance of getting out. The one thing I tried to do all game was be honest - whenever I thought I was being manipulated, when my reads were poor, or when I was confused. I tried being as transparent as possible, so I hope you can see that.

[Hoopla]

Ouch.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla seemed to me pretty clearly town until Day 3. Something about her play didn't add up, and the final desperate appeal to emotions NEVER HELPS YOUR CASE. I had more comments about Hoopla, but unfortunately I just lost a big post I made, so I'll tell you them when I get to them.

I felt after D1 I played quite poorly, and toward the end it was probably my fault the town lost. I got a bit lazy on D3, and then evidence started stacking up against me which I couldn't really talk my way out of. I think Yos played a solid game, and it was probably SOG's bussing that didn't let me see him as town.

As for the end, I knew logically I was clearly the lynch candidate. I thought the only way out would be to try and showcase my honesty throughout the game - that I was merely a wrong, naive townie. I got flustered though and I agree, it didn't help.

Thanks for the quality modding and game comments B&B, you did a great job. And well done to the scumbags, you did it nicely.