Newbie 843 (Game Over)

[Kyiv]

Hello folks! I'll be replacing crazypianist; just give me a bit of time to catch up in the thread (doesn't look like he did a whole lot of posting). In the meantime, I'd like to see everyone reaffirm their stances (who you're voting for and why) And I don't think I'm voting for anyone at the moment but

Unvote

anyway. I promise I won't go AWOL

[Kyiv]

*ugh* I'm spending way too much time on this. I need to sleep on this, but here are my very general thoughts so far:

Town, you're clearly being misled. There are so many poorly cast votes in this game, and the Bjl wagon screams of scum quicklynch (Bjl certainly isn't helping town by flaking, either). Worst of all, Tubby is getting away with lurking all of D1 and then hammering Wrath? And then his equally scummy behavior in Twilight? Tubby's set off practically every classic scum-tell so far, and bjl is getting the bad rap? Not to say that Tubby is scum, but doesn't this warrant discussion?

I don't have much of an idea of who is scum or town at this point, mostly because I'm getting so many scum reads from so many people. Like I said, I need to sleep on this.

Between BJL and Cookie, I still find cookie to be a stronger lynch.

Under threat of deadline, I may be willing to switch though.

Care to elaborate? Do you believe Cookie's scummy behavior is enough to lynch him now? And is your case against BJL strong enough to lynch him now, if Cookie wasn't a factor?

[Kyiv]

I didn't really want to focus solely on Tubby, but this is going to be a long post.

see now we have a disscusion going, and thank you to meji who was paying attention you get a cookie.

vote: yernab

for trying to make us all swim in the deep end of the WIFOM pool.

His previous two posts he was clamoring town for discussion. Here, he subconsciously congratulates yernab for starting discussion by voting for him: Scum move.

*Post about smilies and yernab potentially derailing conversation*

agree with this post.

Buddying up with Soyasushi. Not scummy in and of itself, but I have my own arguments on why Soyasushi has been particularly anti-town so far (More on that later), so this comes into play as well.

well we have to think of something deadline is in 3 days,

Mistakes deadline. Honest mistake most likely, but I can't help but feel that Tubby is constantly trying to rush the town. Please note that after this post, tubby questions Manho once, presses him, and quickly abandons it: his only town point (which was still in Sept.) Afterwards, he started active lurking as Wrath started to take the heat from Cookie, and completely disappears from any discussion, until Meji threw down his/her vote, and then:

well i still like yernab for scum, but with the deadline comeing
i'll just have to look into BJL later then

unvote, vote wrathofshadows

This post wreaks of scum. With absolutely no prior entanglement with Wrath, nor any *true* pressure from a deadline (it was at least 2 days away), tubby hammers.

Why yes, yes he did.

meh someone had to do it might as well be me,

i'll have some answers and cool stuff for you tomorrow

Poor attitude. Failing to provide a reason for your hammer not only makes you look scummy, but even if Wrath ended up being scum, this kind of response withholds information from the town making it incredibly anti-town. I suppose you expected Twilight to end soon, by your promise of "cool stuff" for tomorrow, but you have yet to provide this information. Again, you are withholding information from the town.

i had a reason. I wanted to,,, so theres your reason.

and don't call Sir, at one time i did work for a living.

Keeping up the poor attitude (Scum tell), and taking something so trivial as a personal attack (Though that's more of a null tell than a scum one).

If you were prosecuted for a manslaughter, do you think people would accept "I wanted to" as a reason? Even if you aren't scum, you are being so horribly anti-town at this point, and this is just D1!

*Snip*

1)waiting till deadline to simply get a lynch is weak,

2) day1 lynches always have the east amount of info/evidence

3) my hammer isn't a VI move if anything you may call it scummy.

4) after wrath reaching L-1 his damned if he does damned if he don't post kinda sealed it for me. It diddn't appear that he was going to defend himself any longer so i figured i'd simply put him out of his misery.

1)

And what are you supposed to do before a deadline? I think you worded that poorly. (null tell)

Er nevermind, I just realized that deadline = lynch most votes, not No lynch. So this makes sense.

2) While not necessarily true, I won't disagree.

3) It is -very- scummy.

4) This is a null tell. Townies do that just as often as scum do (in fact, townies almost do it more often, especially in newbie games). I agree with putting him out of his misery, but you had two days, and absolutely no other reason to hammer him. As far as I'm concerned, this is not reason enough to hammer.

This post is more evidence of Tubby's attempt at continually rushing the town.

*Snip*

*Snip Snip*

*More Snip*

close ach, but what i believe ethreal and bfl are looking for is the cop claim.

see scum don't nite kill, leaves town thin doc suceeded , cop feel safe to claim knowing there is a doc to protect him, scum kill cop

however if we have one or both roles both should be quiet about who they are

Scumslip? You had no beef with Cookie before this. You didn't even mention that Cookie seemed at all scummy, yet here you say that he is looking for the Cop. Then later, you had no problem with him again. This is starting to look more and more like a pre-determined attack. Furthermore, you bring up the possibilities of a Cop (On no one's mind), which is no less scummy than Bjl bringing up the possibility of a doc (On many people's minds, even if they didn't say so).

no night kill, eh? looks like we have a doc, and they got lucky.

how/why is it suspicious? what other explanation is there? I guess it's possible the mafia chose to not kill, but that's not likely and doesn't make sense. If we had been past the 72 hour time-limit for night, I would have considered the possibility that the mafia didn't get their orders in.

how are people not already "thinking doctor" with no one dying during the night?

What's the common tactic? Not killing so it looks like there is a doc, so you can claim doc? That seems quite risky.

these three posts alone warrant a lynch, almost baiting any potential power roles to out themselves.

Explain. This is hardly contributing on your part. *TBH, I ignored the rest of this post as it was aimed at Cookie* ::Preview Edit: Actually, it does warrant looking at. Without explaining any of the reasons (He merely throws out quotes and say "Scum!" in one way or another). And to top it off, he changes his "Absolute Scum" vote (one he was convinced of since D1) for an "OMGUS" vote (Note that cookie had been attacking Tubby up to this point.)

^i feel the urge to task you ,, you have no defense then other then to say i am a poor player with poor points? awesomeness pure awesomeness

I don't know that you're a poor player, but you certainly have poor points. In fact, you don't even have points. You just quote specific things, and say "WIFOM" or "Setting up mislynch". You can't expect people to take your word for it, you have to explain your reasonings, otherwise I'm just going to say you're talking out of your ass.

And he fails to even defend himself, and simply says we should lynch either me or BJL.

because i do not need to defend myself when there is scum about such as yourself

I'm so utterly convinced of your innocence now.

Yernab and Bjl is equally long (possibly longer), so I'll give everyone time to soak this in first (and attack me for it/question me etc.) and I still have other scum reads.

But with that,

FoS: Tubby

. You're definitely worthy of a vote, but I still have more to look through, and someone may be more deserving, though I doubt it.

[Kyiv]

I hate placing such an undue importance on Metas. It really is a useless tactic. Scum can play elements of their town meta, towns can play no meta at all, and scum can even play their town meta completely perfectly. You can't ignore the huge number of scummy posts made by Tubby just because "he plays like that". He's just as likely to be scum as he is town. I still have more to say about Yernab and bjl's behaviors, and cookie's twilight talk is hardly scummy at all (from first glance. I will have to look more into it, as said).

[Kyiv]

I don't have much to say about Zach... he's both been out of the spotlight until today. Rather I want to look at Yernab/bjl/Ojanen for the moment, which will involve Soyasushi's tunneling. Again, sorry about the tremendous length of this post. (This is why I split my scumhunting into two posts)

*Snipped intro*

So, in the interest of stimulating discussion, I'd like to ask a question that I'd always wanted to ask on the first day, but I never see it done.

If you were scum, who would you vote for?

I think it's a decent question because it adds an additional layer of subtext, and for scum it may prove somewhat more difficult to navigate. Now, if I were scum, with the limited information I currently have, I'd most likely vote for the most vocal person, so long as it doesn't put them at L-2 or higher - got to avoid suspicion, you know. The fact that the most vocal person has already voted for me cements it: I would probably vote for Soyasushi.

Now in reality, I would probably vote for one of the guys that haven't posted yet. People who don't post are generally below the radar of the lynching mob, at least on day one, and they may be trying to lay low until someone calls them out on their lurking. WrathofShadows, for instance, is someone I would conceivably vote for. However, I'm going to withhold my vote for now, as it's entirely possible he's just had a busy weekend, not unlike myself. =P

Anyway, c'mon - let's get talking and see if we can't dig up something.

A strange WIFOMy question, though largely harmless. On it's own, a null tell, but in context it got everybody out of RVS and start discussing, which is pro-town (And he states this as his intention).

So far, I have to say yernab continues to strike me as suspicious. He posts a long post about what he would do as scum but does the exact opposite, perhaps in hopes that it would throw suspicion off himself. After all, if someone were scum, he would be trying hard to do what his townie self would do. Your scum self and town self should have some sort of difference, but in yernab's case he showed them to be complete opposites, which strikes me as trying too hard to look town.

Then when attack, he got on the defensive, started using the "=P" smiley and went a bit omgus. Also, he's withholding his vote - because he's trying to see who he should vote for so as to not seem as suspicious?

I'm struggling between whether that's a newb town tell or a newb scum tell.

What was your initial suspicion? You mention that he continues to be suspicious, but you never mentioned any initial suspicions. Going defensive is a null tell at best, then he attacks him for the smiley, and then fabricates a third response. It's not OMGUS if he doesn't counter-vote him. It's nothing to vote him for, much less lynch him, which you can get away with since you were already voting him. For what reason, again?

Wow, really? Are smilies that big of a deal? Personally I don't see any way that the use of smilies could be seen as either town or mafia, and being friendly towards a person that just voted me isn't something I can really see as a scumtell, either. God forbid we actually try and have

fun

during this game, apparently. I suppose I'll play it safe and go into Vulcan-mode for the remainder of the day.

His smiley argument ends here.

While my initial post might (understandably) seem a bit odd to the more experienced players, I stand by it. Not necessarily for the content, but for starting the discussion that was so blatantly absent before my posting. I knew there would be a risk that I'd be under suspicion simply by making the first post of substance, and I bear the brunt of that suspicion now without too much complaint. I could have played it safe and lurked, or done single-line posts like david-villa has done. However, I felt that getting a discussion going, even if it does turn around on me would be pro-town any way you slice it.

So no, I don't mind suspicion based on the relatively weird, WIFOM-y original post I made. But c'mon guys, you're wasting time sleuthing about

smilies

? I don't see how that can help us at all, to be honest. Think about it.

First, he mentions that he is fine with taking the fall as long is it creates discussion. VERY pro-town. He isn't talking about smileys, he's talking about derailing conversation from scumhunting to smileys... an argument copied very quickly. At this point, Yernab is townie to me.

Chill, yernab. Why so desperate? You aren't the one under the most suspicion here, yet you are getting so desperately defensive. Are you trying to hide something?

She creates a false emotional reaction. She seems to believe that yernab is jumping off the walls at her, when he seems much calmer, moreso than her. Desperation? I didn't see any hint of it.

The smilies aren't exactly a tell, but it just gives me some sort of feeling. But that's not the main reason I'm voting for you. In your post, you tried to shift everyone's attention to how ridiculous my "smiley" argument is (even though it was just a one-liner in my post in the previous page), which also means you're trying to shift everyone's attention

away

from my main points.

No, the main reason you voted him was because he didn't respond in the first 2 days of the game, something three other people had done. He dedicated one paragraph to defending the smiley, then attacked people who tried to divert people's attention to smileys as it was silly. Not unlike your argument huh?

@crazypianist: We're not arguing about smileys. I just put it in my argument as a passing remark, but yernab's the one making a big deal out of it. That's why I believe he's scum trying to draw attention away from my main points and concentrating on the smiley point.

You listed it as a reason for voting for him, and now you're retracting it after people questioned it (Not just Yernab. You're the one who brought it up remember?) And you seem to have forgotten why you were really voting for him.

@crazypianist: *Snip*

agree with this post.

Just wanted to remind everyone.

Also, you didn't say anything about why you're trying to shift everyone's attention to my smiley comment even though it was just a one-liner, and thus shifting their attention away from my main points. This was the most important thing in my post in Page 4, and yet you regarded it, yet again trying to make a fool out of me by laughing at the whole smiley thing.

Actually he did:

You're suffering a bit of unwarranted self-importance if you think my post was a response to you entirely. Sure, you originally brought up the concept, but there were five more posts - count 'em - in response to the subject before I even replied. If my response seemed a bit strong to you, it's simply because I wanted to prevent people from wasting any more time on the subject. It seems generally agreed on here that smilies aren't really a signal one way or the other.

You're the one shifting attention. You were consistently attacking him for "shifting attention on the smiley thing", something he felt was a silly argument and everyone should stop talking about. Also, if you felt that Tubby was the one under the most suspicion, why are you still attacking Yernab for smileys? And the last sentence "Making a fool out of me" sounds like an overreaction. Why are still voting on Yernab and not Tubby? Who comes out scummier here? Oh and speaking of that Yernab post:

After reading EtherealCookie's analysis, I decided to look at manho's posts exclusively. If you're reading this, go ahead - at the bottom of the page, set the user to "manho" and see what you get. Although the bulk of EtherealCookie's analysis is aimed at tubby, who has been... rather unhelpful on the whole, manho's posts are even more devoid of substance. And he's an SE, too - if anything, he should be using the benefit of his experience to help us scumhunt. But so far, nothing.

So, until I get a response from manho explaining why he isn't helping us out more, I'm gonna

vote manho

.

Manho left this part of the quote out... it kinda sounds like a delayed OMGUS post, doesn't it? No one is seeing it as a scumtell, just you, Manho. After that post, Yernab flakes... minus town points.

I can't believe I just noticed this - on Page 4, Meji said something about "it's fine for yernab to be defensive even if he's a townie, but the only thing he's saying is 'smilies are not an argument! I am not scum!', and it doesn't help, he must also show who he thinks is scum". And immediately, on page 5, yernab copies exactly what Meji says town should do, including voting one of the popular choices Manho, and still trying to distract everyone to the smiley whateverthing.

Actually, Meji said:

Soyasushi - Ive seen very very defensive townies, noone likes being lynched. Also, as town, you should try very hard not to be lynched, after all, you are certain you are not scum, so anyone who isnt you is thus a better lynch (more or less) - that said, the best way to defend yourself really is to find someone who is a better choice. If all your doing is saying 'Im not scum! Smilies are not important!' etc, it doesnt provide a better option. Find who is scum and explain why they are scum

Yernab is never mentioned. How is Manho the popular target? You mentioned in your previous post:

So far from what I've seen, however, yernab still looks suspicious in my eyes, but from the current voting pattern, he doesn't seem to be very much suspected by the others. I guess I'll have to do a reread to see why Wrath is so targetted at the current moment.

And I already stated that it was you who is trying to divert attention. Is it really scummy to try and improve your posts through scumhunting? Looking "too townie" is a WIFOM argument, and not really a scumtell. Also notice that she is constantly making weak attacks on Tubby for lurking, that no one pays any attention to.

re-reading thoughts soon

That's like the 3rd time you've said that, but you never got around to doing it, eh.

Just one example.

no night kill, eh? looks like we have a doc, and they got lucky.

I have to admit, I do see the scumminess in this post, especially the "and they got lucky" part. But I hardly find this as congratulating the doc, and more of "We have a doc" post. Not really role fishing, but not at all town either. IF Mafia sent in a kill, they already know there's a doc. In fact, they already know the entire set-up. This is still a rather scummy post and I can see why people would jump on his case for it... but not lynch him. Now, Ojanen is taking his spot and doing a fair bit of scumhunting, albeit she's attacking a lurker and Manho (who is rather suspicious.)

Wait - Alright, it appears that either we have a doctor who managed to protect the one who was targeted by the mafia, or the mafia got lazy. Even then, I think the doctor will probably protect someone who appears most townish, or just most likely to be targeted by the mafia (Like, for example, I highly doubt he/she will protect someone like Tubby, for instance)

This seems terribly in-line with Tubby's thinking... if you don't remember, it was the:

close ach, but what i believe ethreal and bfl are looking for is the cop claim.

see scum don't nite kill, leaves town thin doc suceeded , cop feel safe to claim knowing there is a doc to protect him, scum kill cop

however if we have one or both roles both should be quiet about who they are

Okay so that's the bjl wagon's argument. After that, Soyasushi continues to tunnel, Tubby switches target very suspiciously, and Manho... I have a lot to say about that.

cookie and bjl are likely to be the two scum. let's see their ISO.

yernab:
#1: the "if you were scum" agrument ok for starting a discussion, but he said he would do "something" if he was scum and as he is town he will do "other things". seems trying hard to look pro-town, which is a scum tell for me.
#2: give up his "method" when someone disagree with it.
#4: say he would be playing safe the rest of the day, and that he knew there will be risk by starting the discussion, which implies he would play safe from the start if he is scum. trying to look pro-town again.

All of these were misrepresentation. Please go back and re-read yernab's responses. (I already attacked #3 and #5 above).

bjl:

#2: said yernab's "trying to look pro-town" as a newbie town mistake, which i disagree. said he had reread the thread a few times but don't find anything blatantly scummy. and then implied we should not scumhunt in day 1. but then ask for reasons for wrath's wagon. maybe trying to find reason to jump on the wagon.
#3: congratulating the doctor

#2 does sound a little scummy, but I'm starting to just find bjl a bad player more and more. His actions seem to be the odd one out when compared to Yernab and Ojanen so far. It's only a little scummy though... #3 is misrep, he was stating the existence of a doc, not congratulating him.

cookie:
#4: responding to yernab's #5 post, and i've quoted it above. seems talking to scum-buddy
#6: buddying tubby again, as tubby said. attacking wrath and secretly approve of yernab's "if i were scum" question
#16-18: discussing who is the next target if wrath flips scum. probably looking for the next mislynch
#24: "Well. I was wrong about Wrath. I'm surprised, honestly." the word "honestly" didn't seem honest

I think you misnumbered your posts somewhere. #6 is actually his seventh post. Can you back your statement up?
#16-18, again you need to back your statements up or this is just misrep.
#24 Back it up. Why do you think "honestly" is dishonest?

conclusion: yernab and bjl is scum, and cookie is likely to be scum and scum-buddy of yernab/bjl. there are scum interaction between them. cookie is pro-town and scumhunting well in day 1, but he seems know wrath would flip town in twilight, see #20-21. and then he is confident that he is right in day 2. really inconsisting.

so,

vote: bjl

(Please go back to page 11 for his entire post).

Unless you have confirmed scum, scum-interaction is just an awful scumtell. I could just as easily accuse you and Tubby of scum-interaction. Or Tubby and Soya. Or Crazypianist and EC. Or EC and Tubby. The list goes on. And back your statement up when you say that "he seems to know that wrath would flip town". To me, it seems more like he's trying to figure out if Tubby just made a huge scummy move (the hammer) or if he just hammered scum for reasons he couldn't see. Since it was the former. I can see inconsistencies with Cookie's D1 and D2 posts, but that's more due to new information (confirmed townie).

Hmm, I thought I read somewhere that lurking's not necessarily a scumtell, but anyway. I've never actually focused much on him, and the fact that he went all "ULTIMATE CONFIRMAGEEEE!!!" in the beginning seems to be drawing attention to himself, so it doesn't make sense why he's suddenly trying to distract the attention away from himself now. It's strange.

i think you are talking about yernab. it seems that he got so much attention and don't know what to do. it is a newbie scum mistake, not a newbie town one. but i will do a reread on him first.

Wrongful attribution. She was definitely talking about Wrath. "Not knowing what to do" is a newbie tell... that's true of anything, not just Mafia. It's a null-tell.

and after a reread, i confirm that is a newbie scum mistake. he is too excited but too careful in his posts. newbie town can be too excited, but they won't be writing their post so carefully. and he is too defensive, newbie town won't. and too serious about the RVS, newbie town won't.

What? Newbie town is never too serious about RVS? Often times, newbie town don't know what to do and find the random voting disconcerting. Newbie town never played the game before, so they expect to have some clue when the game starts, but when it starts and there is absolutely no information, they become confused and wonder where the discussion has gone.

Worst of all, Yernab knew what to do, create discussion. And he did just that. So both of those posts are just entirely wrong.

Okay, so that's enough digging for now. I do like seeing Zach posting more.

[Kyiv]

you replaced pianst right?

so this is you one and only warning tread lightly, because for now you are taking the easy road, I will allow you to do a read of day one and day2.

I know i posted little if anything but take a close look at what i said in my posts.

Elaborate? Appealing to fear is a scumtell btw.

[Kyiv]

no not an appeal to fear

but i was trying to say is look a little closer at may posts, what they say, the words used the timing. Because i feel you are focusing on an easy target, wich by the way is a scum tell.

You claim you are an easier target than Ojanen and Cookie, regardless of the fact that they have more votes, and are under far more suspicion? And you seem to be implying that your previous posts all have some sort of subliminal meaning behind them, yet you refuse to help people find that meaning. I asked for you to elaborate, not repeat yourself. With the way you're acting, I have to think you are withholding information... and your attitude has been nothing but anti-town so far. And let me remind you how easy it would be to lynch Bjl/Ojanen right now:

Between BJL and Cookie, I still find cookie to be a stronger lynch.

Under threat of deadline, I may be willing to switch though.

We are just under a week for that deadline.

[Kyiv]

Ah fail... Tubby wrote that quote, not me.

[Kyiv]

Then I can't take your word; you're playing a very poor townie right now. You are constantly putting your explanations off for the next day, refusing to help townies see your way, and you have

still

done nothing to defend yourself. With that said:

lol... what am I at? L-1? man... I've been sick since thursday and haven't been near a computer. I'm not going to defend myself other than say I'm a plain ol' townie. I don't have time for more right now. good luck.

Ojanen, can you defend Bjl's reasonings for flaking after being put at L-1, his lack of defense, and his role claim?

as for the others, soyasushi is the most townish. zach is also pro-town. meji and crazypianist need to talk more. tubby is anti-town but that's tubby.

a LoS is a bit anti-town imo, it provides target for scum to mislynch and kill.

Manho, can you explain this blatant contradiction?

[Kyiv]

First, happy birthday!

Second, he's hardly going to be lynched, at least not today. I don't see any concern.

Third, I'm insinuating that he's playing a bad townie. I never ruled out he could be scum. I've said what I thought of him in my previous posts, but I still don't have a committing vote on either side just yet. For now though I've given up on trying to get anything out of him. I want Ojanen and Manho to answer their respective questions.

[Kyiv]

that's not a LoS, and not a list that provide target for mislynch or kill. LoS provides mislynch as it said who is the scummiest, but the list from me didn't contain bjl and cookie, who is the scummiest and the one that i don't believe is a mislynch. the list also didn't give out nk options. it is likely that we have a doctor, and assuming we have a doctor, scum should choose whether killing the most pro-town one and risk that the kill is protected, or killing the other and lower the risk. so, the scum can't get benefit from the list, but town does.

Yes. That's exactly what it's not. A LoS lists off people on your scumdar. Here, you have stated who you believe is most townish, which provides targets to the scum, as you argued earlier! You don't need to spell it out for Mafia for it to be a LoS. It doesn't matter who you believe is scummy, because you're voting for them (And you also FoS Cookie). And I'm not arguing against a LoS, I'm arguing against your contradiction.

With that said, you have contradicted yourself and backpedaled more than once in your cases, and you are

still

misrepresenting people, (Cookie -never- stated the existence of a doc. He -only- questioned the attacks on Bjl's comments). Furthermore, I'm now convinced that Bjl's actions were newbie mistakes. I suspected his slot because of his actions and could not fathom him being a newbie looking at his join date, but he really does only has 13 posts, and both games he played he has indeed flaked. In this light:

Vote: Manho

[Kyiv]

Urgh. I don't think I buy the claim. There seems to be too many ulterior motives surrounding the claim, especially if you take the claim into context.

@ojanen: bjl is implying the doctor should claim. proof? yes, i am the doctor and i was tempted to claim after bjl's posts. i protected soyasushi last night.

That's not really proof. If you are scum, then that's just another one of your poorly built arguments. I can't imagine a seasoned player being tempted to claim after a "congratulating the doctor" comment, as you so put it.

But there's no reason not to keep looking for now, and get back to you later, I guess.

Unvote

With that said, Meji mentioned s/he would be moving this weekend, so I wouldn't expect a response any time soon... which is really unfortunate.[/b]

[Kyiv]

You know Cookie, for being so vocal against him, you haven't said a word about Manho's doc claim. Do you still believe Tubby and Manho to be scumpartners?

[Kyiv]

Wow, this game has had so many replacements, I think Tubby and Manho are the only two who hasn't been replaced at this point (Zach too, if you don't count confirmation stage replacements) . And Paltry's slot has been replaced 4 times now!

Actually, when deadline hits, the person with the most votes is lynched. Tubby actually knew about this when he hammered, and said waiting for a deadline lynch was "weak" (Post 209). Soyasushi also knew this (Post 207).

I'm looking forward to your Day 2 analysis, Paltry. And Starbuck hasn't said anything yet, I'd like to see her comments so far.

[Kyiv]

Cookie, your recent comments and actions aren't exactly filling me with confidence, and after re-reading your D1 posts and your sudden drop in activity after the first wave of replacements D2, you're on shaky ground.

However, I'm more curious in Starbuck. I know you mentioned you lost your work, but outside of that, you haven't given any more to the game. A quick comment or two of your thoughts is all I really need. That, and you still have a vote on Ojanen, probably left over from your predecessor (who acted similarly to you.) Your thoughts? Or, anything at all from you?

[Kyiv]

Sudden drop in activity? I have around 3 posts each page. What are you talking about?

You're right! I'm sorry

It was the sudden drop in content of posts that threw me off, I guess when I was thinking back those posts didn't quite stand out. Still, it is rather strange you're hopping on a Zach bandwagon after declaring you found nothing scummy about him, and especially after your supposed conviction of Tubby and Manho being scum. I realize that you dislike the question dodging, but after being so thoroughly convinced of Tubby and Manho being scum, would you really throw your vote on someone you think is town? Even to "apply pressure"? And it isn't so much the vote that worries me actually, it's the attitude surrounding the vote; you're acting an awfully lot like Tubby.

Also, by my count, it should be Cookie as well, since he reached L-2 first. I believe Hohum knows that though.... Hmm... *Ahem* TUBBY! Your thoughts? You seem to find Cookie unbelievably scummy, but have been absolutely silent. What are your thoughts on Zach, as well?

[Kyiv]

You just contradicted yourself

again

. Twice in fact!

cookie:

#20: said he knew who to look for if wrath flips

town

#21: said wrath should do better if he is

town

conclusion: yernab and bjl is scum, and cookie is likely to be scum and scum-buddy of yernab/bjl.

there are scum interaction between them

. cookie is pro-town and scumhunting well in day 1, but he seems know wrath would flip town in twilight, see #20-21. and then he is confident that he is right in day 2. really inconsisting.

@tubby, maybe we can lynch bjl today and cookie tomorrow.

i was convincing tubby to vote bjl for today then. we both think they are both the scum, and they have strong links, so we probably would re-analyse cookie if bjl flip town, and cookie is very likely to be scum if bjl flip scum. this is not setting up future lynch. and people are always saying "we should go after YYY if XXX flips town" or "ZZZ is scum if YYY flips scum". i don't think my sentence is much different from them.

You've argued that certain interactions are a scum tell (scum interaction). Here, you are telling tubby that you plan to lynch cookie today and bjl tomorrow. By your definition, that is scum interaction. Worse than Cookie's and Bjl's supposed scum interaction.

Second, you argued that Cookie is scum because he was "setting up future mislynches", what with his whole "If Wrath is town, we'll look into Tubby, if he is scum, we look into Crazy". You just now tried to defend yourself using the very same tactic you used -against- Cookie!

Also, I just noticed this third contradiction as I was going back to get that first quote:

@ojanen: bjl is implying the doctor should claim. proof? yes, i am the doctor and i was tempted to claim after bjl's posts. i protected soyasushi last night.

You claimed you were tempted to role claim as a doctor after Bjl's posts, however that doesn't sound like the case when you posted...

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though. may be fishing the doc claim, or building up a later doc claim. will examine the wrath lynch tommorrow. it's 2:30 am. really need a sleep.

... right after Bjl's posts. It doesn't sound like you would be noobish enough to fall for a role fishing attempt in that regard. So there are three more arguments you've made that you have now backpedaled on.

[Kyiv]

@kyiv: the bjl-cookie-scum-interaction has nothing with cookie setting up mislynch. and cookie is not scum for setting up mislynch solely, and the bolded "town" is to show cookie knew wrath would flip town,

You never ever said why you thought this. You just said it. No one else provided it as a reason, nor did anyone provide any thoughts relating to this. So I ignored it, with good reason.

cookie set up two future lynches after wrath was lynched, tubby if town and crazy if scum. but i (and tubby?) am pushing for two lynches at the same time, and am happy to lynch both of them today, even before one of them is lynched.

That sounds even scummier than before! Now you don't care if they flip town or not? You just want them dead. It's okay to state a suspicion of someone if another person flips a certain alignment, but to lynch two people regardless of alignment is pretty off-putting to me.

that's different. the thing that i was tempted to claim is true, and i remember there is a post between bjl's and my posts by crazy(?) saying the doc shouldn't claim.

I'm still finding it hard to believe since you were soooo convinced that it was "congratulating the doc", you argued against it until Ojanen herself cleared it, even when Cookie and myself both fought against it.

I don't like either lynch wagons at this point. I'm finding Manho the scummiest even with his doc claim (or perhaps even especially because of it). Both Zach and Cookie seem town to me, especially since Cookie is not riding the rival wagon to his own safety, that screams town to me. I also can't find any arguments to why Cookie is scum, just blank accusations that I don't agree with and have fought to death over. Zach is still voting Cookie and he hasn't exactly given reasons why recently, just that he's unsure of Cookie's defense of Bjl (which was way way back). With all that said, I'm not buying Manho's doc claim, nor am I buying anyone's arguments that Cookie is scum. So for now:

Vote: Manho

With that said, how much time do we have? I know today is the last day, but how much longer can we go before deadline hammers?

[Kyiv]

You're missing one thing: Why did you investigate CP and Zach? Now that you've claimed, you haven't a reason to keep anything from us. Also, there are very big chances that town will lose if we mislynch. Please don't rush into a Zach lynch.

I'd like to hear from Starbuck... your vote on EC came from nowhere (or at least that's what it looked like), and you seem to be missing very big parts of the game, though you are quick to jump in as soon as someone mentions your name.

[Kyiv]

By "they", you mean CP, right?

What in particular about Zach's play yesterday struck you as scummy?

[Kyiv]

Manho, who did you protect last night?

[Kyiv]

No, Tubby; you still haven't explained what in particular about Zach's play led you to investigate him.

Your sudden change of heart almost scares me

[Kyiv]

Tubby has been fairly consistent until now; there are similarities between CP's posts and Zach's posts that struck Tubby to investigate them both. At this point, I'm more inclined to believe Tubby.

Vote: Zach

[Kyiv]

So that leaves Starbuck, who seemed to be lurking a bit too much for my liking. I am wondering if she would have voted at all at the end of day 2 if I hadn't picked up on the fact that she wasn't voting.

She seems to be rather reactionary. It almost seems she wouldn't do anything if we didn't constantly press her. For instance, when Ojanen and several others asked for her opinions quite a few times, she only appeared with her thoughts right after we called on her.

But still, there's something about kyiv. (Who's also chosen to vote for me before actually allowing my thoughts to be heard.) I have to wonder how Tubby argues that crazy pianist was worthy of an investigation on night one, and now claims to have a town read on kyiv. That doesn't seem to match up

How not? CP and I are different people, different players. CP didn't add much, and it has been quite a while since he last contributed (with good reason), so it isn't hard to get a different idea of a person even if they hold the same slot. I had quite a different opinion of Ojanen than I did of Bjl. Though you do bring up a good point: Why do you find me town, Tubby?

Voting for the uncountered doc claim toward the end of day 2.

At that point in the game it's pretty clear that Manho was unlikely to be scum. It seems even more clear now. I have to wonder about the motivations behind that post.

Manho was playing incredibly scummy at that point, and there is entirely the possibility (especially at the time) that there was no doc. There still is that possibility, it's still 50% likely there isn't a doc; we haven't lynched any power roles (scum or town) so there's really no confirmation of this.

I happen to agree with the 2nd part. Starbuck's EC vote did look pretty weak. The 1st part though, establishes that the town should be cautious about the way it approaches the Tubby claim. Not an unreasonable position... however

I'm not sure what you were getting at here.

Only need one side of the story do you?

Now the position I'm in right now. It's pretty clear to me that Manho is the doctor, and it's also pretty clear that I have concerns about both Kyiv and Starbuck. I tend to lean toward Kyiv being the 2nd scum at this point.

I don't really understand Kyiv's interest in the claimed doctor or why she was interested in who Manho protected.

Because I still hadn't believed Manho's doc claim, and Tubby's claim completely hinges on Manho being the doc, or at least someone being a doc. And as no one has counter-claimed, either Manho is the doc, or no one is at this point.

I think I should also make clear that the presence of a cop in this setup is not certain, and that only the scum would know for sure whether or not there actually is a cop at this point. This would seem to be consistent with Kyiv's interest in the doctor and why she seems to both believe the claim at face value while simultaneously trying to make a case against him. (Observe again the end of day 2.)

Point out where I say or even imply that I believed Manho's doc claim, if even for a second. At least in Day 2. I believed Manho to be so incredibly scummy, and I'm not entirely convinced he still isn't. And I'm not the only person who disbelieved his claim. However at this point, I believe that the first scum today is either you or Tubby, which was a difficult choice to make in day 2, it's even harder now.

Two reasons: That post where she wants to know who he'll protect. And believing tubby means believing manho.

I believe I answered the first, for the second:

His response to that question gave me nothing; had he answered with something like Ojanen, I would have strung up Tubby today, and Manho tomorrow. Also, last night's kill made me believe that scum was attempting to get me to tunnel Manho, so between the time I saw that post, and the time I saw Tubby's claim, my view of Manho waned.

Now that you've put your analysis up, I have to put up this post in order to get something deciphered:

*Snip*

In this post, tubby seems to know:
A) There is a cop (scum is looking for cop claim)
B) That there are two goons (cop is safe to claim though there is no doc)

I am thoroughly confused by this alone.

It's something like this that makes me believe more that Tubby is cop, or very meticulously planned scum. I'm more inclined to believe the former.

I'm starting to believe that perhaps Starbuck might be the better lynch.

[Kyiv]

This back-and-forth behavior between you two isn't getting us anywhere ><

I now realize that a Starbuck lynch would only be better from my perspective. From everyone else, the lynch should be Tubby or Zach, so I'll just have to go along. After re-analyzing, I believe that it could very possibly be meticulously planned scum on Tubby's part, as he and Manho are the only two who haven't been replaced (and Zach) since the beginning of the game, despite how much and how frequently this game has stagnated. It leaves me to believe very much that this could very well have been planned from the beginning. Both have pushed for a Cookie lynch, and a bjl lynch. Both are now pushing for a Zach lynch (albeit, less on Manho's part), both have claimed power roles, and both have breadcrumbed or at least claimed to have. Both were on the Wrath wagon (though Tubby pushed for a bjl lynch). And I have recently started to believe that everyone's scummy status at this point is now being based on a set of conditionals. Since the conditionals are -only- helpful if town makes it to the next day (i.e. lynch scum), I will drop those conditionals and go solely based on scum reads. Which means:

Unvote: Zach

[Kyiv]

Err... have I been kicked out of the game then?

[Kyiv]

Okay first off, I want to apologize for not posting much this day. Though you have to admit I'm not the only one. But Zach's resignation isn't entirely swelling me with confidence. Town should fight to their death, but I guess a pure cop claim doesn't give him much to work with. Let's hope the two replacements have more to say.

[Kyiv]

Man, that rope is going to feel really uncomfortable.

Well, there's only one way to find out for sure

Actually, I'm guessing Zach has given up, and even possibly trying to mimic our last two lynchees who were town. So that's my justification for:

Vote: Zach

[Kyiv]

Maybe if I hammer again, he'll come back?

Vote: Zach

[Kyiv]

Maybe if I hammer again, he'll come back?

Vote: Zach

That hurt enough the first time.

Poor Zach =(



....

Vote: Zach

*Whistles nonchalantly*

Messages sent. Hohum may be going through some personal stuff right now, so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt in this case.

If he's in the States, he might be away on Thanksgiving too.

[Kyiv]

As promised during Twilight, I investigated Starbuck.

Unfortunately I have not had a response to my investigation from the

MOD

.

With that statement, I think Tubby/Mr Finch is cleared... I can't imagine scum making that up. So your theory of mutual bussing is more or less absolved Paltry, unless you have other concerns? And Mr Finch, it's entirely possible you were roleblocked, but I think you get a response for that too?

So with all the conditionals met or broken, the lynch today is me or Starbuck. Mr Finch could not be cop without Manho being doc, and everyone believes he is doc because of the no NK night 1, and now because Tubby claimed roleblocked cop. Paltry is most likely to be town (because of the protect and no NK) and considered so by everyone. (Just in case you forgot over the long night XD )

Also with 3 to lynch, one scum left, 4 townies still about, and with one dispensable I think Town has more or less won this game. The only option I have in my spot is to:

Vote: Starbuck

I may even go back and Iso-read her and Meji-Fan... depending on how forgiving my other games are... but your choices are me or Starbuck, and either of us can die with a town victory. Anything anyone can bring to the table should do so

now

.

[Kyiv]

Well, okay. I'll build a case, if that's what Starbuck wishes.

Looking through Meji-Fan's iso read, she never mentions Zach once. Well, once, but it was more to implicate Wrath in Day 1 rather than to state anything about Zach's play. Also, her RVS vote-hopping were all on semi-confirmed townies: Manho (RVS), Soyasushi(RVS), and Tubby, then back to Manho, before putting Wrath at L-1. Then she is the first on Bjl's case, and nearly disappears when Tubby and manho take over.

This is curious though:

But Im happy with Wrath now, just dont want to accidentally hammer before the 'good at end of day' scumlists appear

Why would a scumlist stop her from hammering someone s/he believed to be scum? Would a scumlist help change her mind about her lynch target? I can't believe so. I believe she was trying to get scumlists out of people like Tubby and Manho and use them to her advantage (Note: this isn't me taking a stance on scumlists). And that isn't too far-fetched either, considering how easily swayed manho is (near doc-claim at beginning of D2). That's my case on Meji.

Zach's connection:

Yeah, I have a confession to make. I've been waivering on my scum read of Cookie. In a situation where scum needs any other lynch to survive, him changing his vote from me doesn't really make any sense as scum.

At the moment, the fact that Starbuck is not voting is sticking out like a sore thumb to me, so yeah, with the deadline fast approaching why haven't you found it important to fully catch up and take a firm stance?

Unvote: Vote: Starbuck

Pure distancing. As we now know Zach is scum, and Cookie is town, we can of course see the mountainous amount of distancing himself from the lynch Cookie lynch here. Also, he attacks Starbuck just before deadline, knowing fully well that his vote would not carry any weight. So here, Zach is not only attempting to distance himself from the lynch, but also distance himself from Starbuck.

In D3, Zach is asked for his possible second scum suspect. He chooses Me and Starbuck, much like Tubby. He posts a couple sentences on Starbuck, then lays out a huge case on me. And then he flips scum... if you were scum and you were about to die, who would you put a stronger case for, your partner? Hardly.

Lastly, Starbuck, I think Zach has outed you here:

Starbuck could have hammered as well could she have not?

Besides, lynch today is me or you. I'm not going to vote for myself.

[Kyiv]

Uh-oh. I think Manho needs a prod.

[Kyiv]

Yay! Manho is still here!

[Kyiv]

another thing is that why don't the scum roleblock me and kill mr finch, or roleblock mr finch and kill me?

I can't imagine anyone roleblocking and attempting to kill the same person. That would just be a waste, especially when there is still a doc around. I'm thinking we might have a scum who intentionally no killed to WIFOM this exact situation.

[Kyiv]

First off, credit where it's due:

You may talk with your partner at Night, and send me a choice via PM of who you would like to kill/roleblock (your team can do both if both of you live;

if only you survive, you must choose one action or the other

).

Mafia Roleblocker PM on page 1. However, this does not clear Starbuck or me of being scum; all it does is prevent Mr Finch from being completely cleared. However, I think about it this way: if Mr Finch is scum, the only person he would logically roleblock is Manho. Seeing that manho's ability is only useful if Mafia attempts to NK, the roleblock is in turn, made useless. And since Manho protected Mr Finch, we would have seen a kill, unless Mr Finch tried to kill himself. So Mr Finch is still mostly cleared, however he is still a possibility. I still think the prudent thing to do is choose between me or Starbuck for

today's

lynch.

And since Starbuck wants me to criticize something she can defend, though it will be hard considering how often you've posted:

Despite her feelings of a very scummy Tubby in Day 2, as soon as he claims cop, Starbuck hops very quickly on Zach, putting him at L-1 near instantly:

Exhibit A

This post can be seen two ways for a Starbuck scum... a scum who isn't carefully reading the thread jumping on a quicklynch backed by a cop claim (which a Starbuck scum would know to be true or false instantly), or two, a scum intimidated by a cop claim and wanting a quick bus of her partner before too much analysis or thought could be given to Zach's possible partners.

Next, when she posts this. This was such a strange attack on Zach, one that could only be seen from the perspective of scum. I believe this is a scumslip who knows that Zach is scum. Because a townie would not know if Zach was scum or not, and scum or town, if a cop attacks you with a guilty claim, you pretty much have to attack back; not because you need to to survive, but clearly he is a cop or scum, and as a town, he is clearly scum. A scumpartner would tentatively warn his partner (though maybe not out in the open like this) when they are attacking a claimed cop. Town wouldn't do that.

The very next post, she unvotes when it becomes clear no one else is voting for Zach immediately, stating that "Longer days are better for town." She repeats that today, and although this is now getting into game theory, I don't believe that that's entirely true. This is the kind of thing scum likes to latch on to, and in certain cases, use against the town. Like for instance, this game... the lynch today is me or Starbuck, but she repeats that longer days are better for town, and then throws out WIFOM to try and cast suspicion on Mr Finch.

Lastly, I'd like for you to answer something:

The first bit I read of the game I got a very pro-town read of EC, but as I read through farther, he got very scummy to me, which is why I felt my vote was better placed with him.

What about EC gave you a very pro-town feeling? What made him seem so scummy, that it completely destroyed his pro-town image you had of him, and try and lynch him?

[Kyiv]

So have you decided your lynch then, Mr. Cop?

[Kyiv]

If Mr. Finch is the final scum, there is no roleblocker. Mr. Finch would have to be a goon as I firmly believe we have a doc in manho. If Mr. Finch is the final scum, he would have to of no killed, no action.

Oh right! Good point.

[Kyiv]

Hey, I actually won a game for a change!

When I read the thread as a spectator, I also thought it was Tubby/Zach, but I quickly singled out manho when I actually got in. I even toyed with a manho/Soya pair, so I did pretty horribly D2. I'm still confused how we won after such a horrid D2, though I guess this is a lesson learned... sometimes things go so badly, that they get better later because of it XD I think what really saved town was the guilty claim on Zach.

So, Kyiv, What did you discuss with Zach before we lynched him?

I didn't say anything at the time, but I'm still confused by this XD

[Kyiv]

Unfortunately not. After posting a lengthy post about who the scumteam was and why, hohum accidentally posted the lynch scene for Zachrulez, revealing him to be a Mafia Goon. I saw it. Deadline hadn't arrived and Zach hadn't been hammered, so though I knew Zach was guilty based on my cop investigation, I was now privileged to information I shouldn't know: that Zach was not a roleblocker. I had to be replaced out. hohum even deleted my lengthy post too.

This game seems to be good at letting people down... so wait, is this why you pretty much gave up at the end of D3, Zach?

[Kyiv]

Pretty interesting that I was close to being NKed for being a cop... I hadn't any idea I was giving off any power-role vibes, but then again I guess you wouldn't know anyway.