Newbie 843 (Game Over)

[manho]

First to confirm!!!

[manho]

btw, i'm the other SE.

[manho]

when will spambot sonfirm? or should we get a replacement?

[manho]

the game finally start, and i really need a sleep.

[manho]

Vote: Soyasushi

, for putting someone at L-3. i like bandwagon.

[manho]

unvote, vote: tubby

for asking for more post and more talk without actually giving them.

and to the question by yernab, i will do the exact same thing i would do as town. is the answer the same as meji? great mind think alike, or i'm just copying from meji. [serious]it is optimistic for all scum to act exactly the same as they will as town. and i don't think scum should do stuff that scum would do. i would go for the scumtell and lynch the scum but not thinking in the WIFOM cycle.[/serious]

[manho]

starting the discussion is always pro-town. the smileys thing is really interesting and need more reseach.

[manho]

a LoS is a bit anti-town imo, it provides target for scum to mislynch and kill.

@crazypianist, are you from AoPS? i know another crazypianist there. btw, my name is 142857 there.

[manho]

Anyone can post a smiley. Since we don't have the advantage of facial expressions or verbal emphasis, it makes it virtually impossible to figure the true meaning (town being nice vs. scum disguise)

FoS

Manho.

I want to see what information i can gather from

his

response..

who is that "he"?

[manho]

a LoS is a bit anti-town imo, it provides target for scum to mislynch and kill.

Isn't this kind of mindset a bit anti-discussion? Want to go into detail about why suspicion lists bother you?

good scum can always find a good way to jump on a bandwagon that is top in most people's LoS. and scum can always nk the one that is at the bottom of most LoS to get rid of the most pro-town player. i like LoS's when i was scum.

[manho]

(I'm not trying to say you should make a complete list of where every player stands in your head, but a top 2-3 works pretty good.)

stating the top 3 is much better.

[manho]

unvote, vote: tubby for asking for more post and more talk without actually giving them.

and to the question by yernab, i will do the exact same thing i would do as town. is the answer the same as meji? great mind think alike, or i'm just copying from meji. [serious]it is optimistic for all scum to act exactly the same as they will as town. and i don't think scum should do stuff that scum would do. i would go for the scumtell and lynch the scum but not thinking in the WIFOM cycle.[/serious]

What exactly is stuff that "scum would do?" The scum should be doing nothing suspicious in day anyhow. So I don't really get your point. And, how can there be a scumtell if you think scum behaves exactly like town? The difference between scum and town is that scum has extra information that it can let slip, not to mention a person who's actually town behaves exactly like town, while a person who is scum usually tries to act like town too hard (Overly pro-town, that either chases after a lynch like a hound or offers an analysis and then remains quiet, just joining bandwagons with a good reason.) That's good scum. Then you've got the silly scum that just tries to remain quiet and out of the picture, which people notice easily. Yeah, I'm looking at you, Tubby.

the "scum would do" things are just the normal scumtells, like bandwagoning without giving reasons. and did i actually say that "being pro-town is scummy"? i don't think so, but i label "being overly pro-town" and "trying hard to be pro-town" as scummy.

Anyone can post a smiley. Since we don't have the advantage of facial expressions or verbal emphasis, it makes it virtually impossible to figure the true meaning (town being nice vs. scum disguise)

FoS Manho.
I want to see what information i can gather from his response..

who is that "he"?

Wrath. If you want to see someones response and gather information from it, why would you tell them? Secondly, why a FoS? You could at least vote. Nobody's afraid of a FoS with no analysis. It says nothing.


Manho, what kind of response was that? You didn't even ask what exactly the point of that was.

you can't FoS someone without giving any reasons and think that he would respond to it, and i don't think wrath would be that stupid. so, i ask him if he really want to get respond from me.

[manho]

After reading EtherealCookie's analysis, I decided to look at manho's posts exclusively. If you're reading this, go ahead - at the bottom of the page, set the user to "manho" and see what you get. Although the bulk of EtherealCookie's analysis is aimed at tubby, who has been... rather unhelpful on the whole, manho's posts are even more devoid of substance. And he's an SE, too - if anything, he should be using the benefit of his experience to help us scumhunt. But so far, nothing.

So, until I get a response from manho explaining why he isn't helping us out more, I'm gonna

vote manho

.

i'm a bit busy these days, no i'm very busy, and i can only access to MS after 2am, which is a bit late to me. but sorry for making so little posts.

[manho]

Him being an SE, I believe we can find some meta from manho, so I'm going to check to see how he used to behave in games where he's scum or he's town.

the label people as SE too easily. i've finished 2 games only in MS, both being townie, and you can check them in my wiki.

[manho]

a LoS is a bit anti-town imo, it provides target for scum to mislynch and kill.

Isn't this kind of mindset a bit anti-discussion? Want to go into detail about why suspicion lists bother you?

good scum can always find a good way to jump on a bandwagon that is top in most people's LoS. and scum can always nk the one that is at the bottom of most LoS to get rid of the most pro-town player.

i like LoS's when i was scum.

please note the bolded

Him being an SE, I believe we can find some meta from manho, so I'm going to check to see how he used to behave in games where he's scum or he's town.

the label people as SE too easily.

i've finished 2 games only in MS, both being townie,

and you can check them in my wiki.

or were you talkin about that other site cause i am a lil lost

F.O.S. manho

and yes it is a bit omgus'y

yes, i'm talking about games in other site. i've finished about 10 games in AoPS.

[manho]

@manho are those games played like they are here? meaning day time is vote driven rather than say time driven?

that is to say the day ends here when a majority vote is cast,

time driven means you have 24hours and the player with the most votes is lynched.

and can you provide a link?

the same as here.
link, and i was in game 20, 26, 27, 28, 32, 34-41, but most of the games are themed and it may be difficult to find a meta on me base on them. and i've forgotten in which games i was scum. (i can search for them if you really want)

[manho]

I don't make a vote unless i have what i conceive to be concrete reason.

I admit that my vote is 25% retaliation. But still it strikes me odd that he's so focused on one or two people (mainly manho, tubby and me) which accounts for the other 75% of why i placed my vote the way i did. I've got three ideas for scum at this point.

i don't think 75% is concrete. and focusing on 3 people in a review is not a concrete reason for voting someone, especially when you say you rarely vote. so,

vote: Wrath

[manho]

Hmmm. manho seems to be pretty willing to change votes and vote for the new popular thing . . . see tubby and now Wrath

Interesting

unvote, vote manho

bandwagon and pressure is good in D1, as it can get reaction from others, especially those who are likely to be scum. my vote on tubby is an asking for respond vote.

[manho]

I don't make a vote unless i have what i conceive to be concrete reason.

I admit that my vote is 25% retaliation. But still it strikes me odd that he's so focused on one or two people (mainly manho, tubby and me) which accounts for the other 75% of why i placed my vote the way i did. I've got three ideas for scum at this point.

i don't think 75% is concrete. and focusing on 3 people in a review is not a concrete reason for voting someone, especially when you say you rarely vote. so,

vote: Wrath

Wrath's vote on EtherealCookie is 25% OMGUS and 75% for him focusing on 3 people, which is not a scum tell. so, wrath's vote didn't have much basis but OMGUS, which is scummy. and that he said before that he won't vote without concrete reason, which lead to inconsistence, which is also scummy.

[manho]

i'll let our new player gives his opinion first.

welcome bjl!!!

[manho]

@bjl, what is your thought of the game? who you think is scummy and why?

and we are having the deadline in 3 days? can we have a vote count and deadline lynch criteria?

[manho]

Hmm, I thought I read somewhere that lurking's not necessarily a scumtell, but anyway. I've never actually focused much on him, and the fact that he went all "ULTIMATE CONFIRMAGEEEE!!!" in the beginning seems to be drawing attention to himself, so it doesn't make sense why he's suddenly trying to distract the attention away from himself now. It's strange.

i think you are talking about yernab. it seems that he got so much attention and don't know what to do. it is a newbie scum mistake, not a newbie town one. but i will do a reread on him first.

[manho]

and after a reread, i confirm that is a newbie scum mistake. he is too excited but too careful in his posts. newbie town can be too excited, but they won't be writing their post so carefully. and he is too defensive, newbie town won't. and too serious about the RVS, newbie town won't.

[manho]

Let's not care about the smileys. Bjl, any explanation for yernab's mocking, WIFOMy, scummy, "tries to look too townie" attitude?

I don't know. maybe newbie town mistakes?

and his replacement explain with "newbie town mistake"...

but my vote will still on wrath for now. and bjl need to post more, with content.

[manho]

where is our mod?

[manho]

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though. may be fishing the doc claim, or building up a later doc claim. will examine the wrath lynch tommorrow. it's 2:30 am. really need a sleep.

[manho]

cookie and bjl are likely to be the two scum. let's see their ISO.

yernab:
#0: confirming
#1: the "if you were scum" agrument ok for starting a discussion, but he said he would do "something" if he was scum and as he is town he will do "other things". seems trying hard to look pro-town, which is a scum tell for me.
#2: give up his "method" when someone disagree with it.
#3: "Pretty confident, then? =P " when someone accuse him. avoid defend himself
#4: say he would be playing safe the rest of the day, and that he knew there will be risk by starting the discussion, which implies he would play safe from the start if he is scum. trying to look pro-town again.
#5: defending himself against soyasushi, and the defense is acceptable. but the last part is interesting:

After reading EtherealCookie's analysis, I decided to look at manho's posts exclusively. If you're reading this, go ahead - at the bottom of the page, set the user to "manho" and see what you get. Although the bulk of EtherealCookie's analysis is aimed at tubby, who has been... rather unhelpful on the whole, manho's posts are even more devoid of substance. And he's an SE, too - if anything, he should be using the benefit of his experience to help us scumhunt. But so far, nothing.

I didn't know I could set to user posts. Thanks for that. Makes reading people much more easier.

scummy talking with scum-buddy?

bjl:
#0: confirming
#1: dodging soyasushi's question about yernab
#2: said yernab's "trying to look pro-town" as a newbie town mistake, which i disagree. said he had reread the thread a few times but don't find anything blatantly scummy. and then implied we should not scumhunt in day 1. but then ask for reasons for wrath's wagon. maybe trying to find reason to jump on the wagon.
#3: congratulating the doctor
#4-5: explaining why everyone should think there is a doctor

cookie:
#0: confirming as replacement
#1: analysing tubby, wrath and me. and the analysis is acceptable
#2: give a case on wrath, and the case is good
#3: buddying tubby, as tubby said
#4: responding to yernab's #5 post, and i've quoted it above. seems talking to scum-buddy
#5: talking about the post filter
#6: buddying tubby again, as tubby said. attacking wrath and secretly approve of yernab's "if i were scum" question
#7: talking about tubby FoS me for my "contradiction" of haven't been scum before but have been scum. (see post 133)
#8: saying wrath's vote on him is more like a retaliation
#9-15: defending himself and attacking wrath, which i agreed
#16-18: discussing who is the next target if wrath flips scum. probably looking for the next mislynch
#19: "Did he just kill him?"
#20: said he knew who to look for if wrath flips

town

#21: said wrath should do better if he is

town

#22: buddying tubby again
#23: finding the mod
#24: "Well. I was wrong about Wrath. I'm surprised, honestly." the word "honestly" didn't seem honest
#25-26: defending bjl
#27-30: defending himself and attacking tubby.

conclusion: yernab and bjl is scum, and cookie is likely to be scum and scum-buddy of yernab/bjl. there are scum interaction between them. cookie is pro-town and scumhunting well in day 1, but he seems know wrath would flip town in twilight, see #20-21. and then he is confident that he is right in day 2. really inconsisting.

so,

vote: bjl

[manho]

@cookie, so you are voting tubby and FoSing me as we are accusing you? tubby's hammer is anti-town, but he is always anti-town, and if you really think wrath is scum, you should be ok with tubby hammering the scum. and you are FoSing me for what reason? the only reason i can find is that i'm accusing you and bjl. so that's an OMGUS vote.

confirm vote: bjl, confirm FoS: cookie

[manho]

I just feel the need to point out you are wrong, you are looking at the wrong people, and I am pretty sure BJL will not flip scum. Once again, turn your attention the bandwagon, because that's where the scum lies. So. Bandwagon on bjl, if you must. We'll see where that leads.

so, you are sure bjl is town without reason?

I've already said why I don't think BJL is scum. I think scum was on Wraith of Shadow's bandwagon.
I think scum is probably on BJL's bandwagon.

so all the lurkers are not scum.

So, let's examine people who voted for Wraith.
Manho -

i don't think 75% is concrete. and focusing on 3 people in a review is not a concrete reason for voting someone, especially when you say you rarely vote. so, vote: Wrath

Wrath's vote on EtherealCookie is 25% OMGUS and 75% for him focusing on 3 people, which is not a scum tell. so, wrath's vote didn't have much basis but OMGUS, which is scummy. and that he said before that he won't vote without concrete reason, which lead to inconsistence, which is also scummy.

He pointed out something that was genuinely scummy. Wrath was contradicting himself. Manho had a good reason for voting for Wrath, in my opinion, and didn't just jump onto the bandwagon.

Town vibes.

that's not a reason of FoSing me, is it?

As for 20 and 21...

Wow.
Well, if Wrath shows townie, I'll know who to look at next.

A guy just hammered. Am I not supposed to look at him?

no, you was very sure that wrath was town last day, you should be happy with the hammering.

Well, if you're really town, I fail to see why you didn't put any effort into defending yourself at the end, and instead gave up.

Uhm... He claimed he's town. He's dead. Why would he lie? I'm just irritated he didn't put effort into defending himself.

no, scum lies in twilight. and you are sure wrath is scum, so you should think he is lying. and now you are shifting your fault for misleading the mislynch to wrath.

Anyhow, consider this carefully. Manho, while attacking me and BJL, has been defending Tubby silently. The quotes from me that he calls suspicious are also ones that attack Tubby.

so i'm scum as i'm defending tubby. but you are scum as you are defending bjl. note that i've reason in defending tubby, but you don't.

Oh man, Manho. The guy who followed me onto Wrath's bandwagon quickly, and now I'm scum?

i have my reason for voting wrath, so i'm not bandwagoning. and what's wrong with you are scum, that's a scum misleading a mislynch

Huh. I think my Day II read is going to be much different on you. If I had to guess who were most likely scumbuddies, I'd go with you and Tubby. You both seem keen to support the "EC is Scum!" case.

that's OMGUS

Oh look, you don't like Yernab because he wants to examine you closely. Then BJL comes along. Decent case against BJL. Nothing worthy of a lynching.

a decent case against bjl not don't worth a lynch
and what else should i find?

[manho]

as for the others, soyasushi is the most townish. zach is also pro-town. meji and crazypianist need to talk more. tubby is anti-town but that's tubby.

[manho]

so now cookie is asking for replacements to help him and his scumbuddy out of trouble.

[manho]

So.
BJL is useless townie. This is not enough to have me lynch him on day II. We are going on a dangerous path if we're going to kill off people just because they're useless, when we should be on the hunt for scum. So, keep your vote where it's at, Meji. But, if he shows up townie, I'm going to go, "I told you so", given he didn't have any scum tells and you support your vote over the fact he's being useless, which doesn't have to be a scum tell.

bjl is not voted for being useless. he is voted for the fishing, and it is a scum tell.

I hope we can get a replacement for Pianist soon.

and you hope you can get some help.

No, I am sure bjl is town because I know who scum is now.

so why you are sure tubby and me are both scum? only cop can be sure about who is scum by investigating, but a cop can only investigate once as it is day 2 now. so no one can be sure who are the 2 scums, except for the scums themselves.

So you follow a lynch all lurkers policy?
Wow.

you are twisting my words. the inverse of "all lurkers are not scum" is "some lurkers may be scum", that's not the same with "all lurkers are scum". if you know logic, you should know it.

Did you bother reading my post? It seems you didn't.
I was giving reads of people on the Bandwagon. Separately for their actions on each bandwagon. You showed up pro-town Day I. I did not have any suspicions of you. However, your subtle defense of Tubby has changed my mind otherwise.

i don't know if you are thinking in a proper way. maybe you think me looking pro-town day 1 is scummy. who know?

So, just because someone is sure that a person is scum, that means we should ruin all further discussion and hammer? Seems like a scummy thing to do.

seems like? no, it is scummy, and anti-town. but i like his hammer as i really think he is scum. i also like a hammer now as i really think bjl is scum.

Why the hell would scum lie in Twilight, when scum is already dead?

how many games had you played? i have seen lots of times scum saying he is townie in twilight.

Yes, the difference is that the person I am defending does not seem scummy at all.

so why bjl is townie except that "tubby and i am the 2 scums".

I know that. You had your reasons for voting for him. When did I say you didn't? Are you telling me if a man follows a guy jumping off a bridge, he still cannot have his own reasons for doing so?

no, you said so:

Oh man, Manho. The guy who followed me onto Wrath's bandwagon quickly, and now I'm scum?

and it didn't answer my question why you can't be scum if i vote after you.

No, that's called holy crap, you're trying to attack me along with Tubby, who is extremely scummy, and gang up on me. You must be scum buddies! Sorry for noting relations between players.

no, tubby is scummy as he vote you, and i am scummy as i vote you. that's OMGUS.

A decent case is never good enough a reason to lynch. A good case is the only time you lynch.

so did you have a good case to show that tubby and i am definitely scum?

Once again, I have to ask, do you read the posts?
Crazypianist isn't going to talk more, given he asked for a replacement, so there's no point of telling him to.

crazypianist needs to speak more implies crazypianist and his replacement and his replacement's replacement and... , as they are regarded as the same player in this game.

[manho]

Uhm.
ReplacementS?
It's not my fault the mod hasn't checked the game and asked for a replacement. You're telling me I'm bad for asking for more people to be in the game so they can observe whats going on and offer their own analysis? There's another obvious scum tell. Look, now you're scummy without having to buddy up with Tubby! You shouldn't have a problem with Crazy being replaced at all (given you're town) if you believe us two are the scum. Yet you do. Huh.

And then we've got a sick guy who says he's not going to defend himself, and obviously needs to be replaced if he isn't participating. Yet, you want an easy lynch. So you're trying to make it look as if I'm scummy for asking for replacements, when replacements honestly don't change anything you've presented in your case. The only role that wouldn't want replacements at your position is scum.

no, i'm happy with crazy being replaced. the replacement should buy my case instead of yours, if you really have one. but you will have hope in it. but bjl shouldn't be replaced. he was sick, but he will not be sick forever. and now bjl is posting, and didn't ask for a replacement. the only reason why you want bjl to be replaced is that you two are scum-buddy and you want someone else to help defend bjl.

[manho]

@cookie, state your entire case on me. i'm pretty sure i've quoted everything against me in post 291 and i've added "what else should i find?" at the end, so i don't think i've missed anything.

btw, you should also state your case on tubby clearly to get other's support.

[manho]

@soyasushi: cookie knows bjl is town as he is sure that tubby and i am the two scums, just to let you know.

[manho]

@soyasushi: cookie knows bjl is town as he is sure that tubby and i am the two scums, just to let you know.

Just like how he is so sure bjl is town, how is he so sure you are the two scums? Unless he has some hidden psychic ability we know nothing about?

you should ask him again, but that's what i get.

@tubby, maybe we can lynch bjl today and cookie tomorrow.

mod: can we have a vote count please?

[manho]

ok then. let's wait. or someone should pm'ed the mod.

[manho]

i don't know why add the "ed" after pm. and i'll pm him now.

[manho]

our mod hasn't read my pm...

[manho]

our mod hasn't read my pm yet. who else can we find to take care of the game?

[manho]

so we will need our replacement fast, or someone else need to hammer before the deadline.

[manho]

@kyiv, read carefully and you will know why we are that sure for bjl and cookie being scum, especially for yernab's game starting question, bjl's congratulating the doctor, and cookie's twilight talk. and read tubby's meta if you think he is scummy for doing every classic scum tell.

[manho]

His second vote on Wrath is wagoning after Ethereal's case, in a situation where Zach and Meji have also just stated suspicion on Wrath. Manho has not stated previous Wrath suspicion.

voting the 2nd vote with reasons is not wagoning.

A few days before deadline he also responds to the floating suspicion of my slot when Soyasyshi talks about it. Manho had not stated previous suspicion on my slot (notice a reactive trend?), in fact at the time of the original early posts that are under suspect he said first

starting the discussion is always pro-town. the smileys thing is really interesting and need more reseach.

and then didn't comment on the rest of the accusations at all.
The new conclusion just before deadline that I totally look like newbie scum

that happens when yernab ask for replacement when in trouble.

but my vote will still on wrath for now. and bjl need to post more, with content.

just looks like groundwork on setting up the next vote.

that happened when bjl replaced in and haven't said anything with content.

D2 manho first thinks:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though. may be fishing the doc claim, or building up a later doc claim.

will examine the wrath lynch tommorrow

. it's 2:30 am. really need a sleep.

Examination of wrath lynch never comes.

i've forgotten it as we have obv scums in bjl and cookie.

Instead, after universal heat on beginning of D2 on my slot+Cookie, surprise surprise manho echoes everyone:

cookie and bjl are likely to be the two scum. let's see their ISO.

The iso work is bloody murderously terrible. Seriously.Read it.

let's see.

For example, point no.5 from my slot: my first incarnation says there's the feature where you can read a single players all posts in iso, and Cookie replies he didn't know and that's useful.
=>manho deems this to be a serious scummy interaction and connection. Yes, really. I'm not kidding.

i seriously think it is a scum interaction. scums usually avoid talking about scumhunting, as they don't scumhunt, so most of their conversation is game-unrelated things or bussing each other.

Continuous trend of trying to show everything in worst light possible i the style of the previous point.
First 3 content posts from my slot he finds scumtells from now, although not at the time (original only comment was the "discussion is good, smileys interesting" line).

yernab's or bjl's? i'm not close with the game, so i would miss out scum point easily, but you know, life is just busy.

Later, this

so now cookie is asking for replacements to help him and his scumbuddy out of trouble.

is anti-town. No matter who the person is, the role stays the same. It's always better to go off content than a flaker slot if you actually want to make the best decisions.

don't know what you mean here.

also,
in some of the zebra crossing fights with Cookie, manho says:

bjl is not voted for being useless. he is voted for the fishing, and it is a scum tell.

Great, except this is how big a tell manho originally thought the doc thing was:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though.

congratulating the doctor is a small scum tell by itself, but with other post by bjl and cookie, it became fishing, which is a bih scum tell.

setting up lynches has been mentioned:

@tubby, maybe we can lynch bjl today and cookie tomorrow.

so what's wrong with setting up lynches on players i think is scum?

Finally, we arrive to the conclusions of an opportunist:

@kyiv, read carefully and you will know why we are that sure for bjl and cookie being scum,

especially for yernab's game starting question, bjl's congratulating the doctor,

and cookie's twilight talk.

What certainty can be observed here.
But look where he started out on 2 of the 3 things:
game starting question:

starting the discussion is always pro-town. the smileys thing is really interesting and need more reseach.

doctor:

congratulating the doctor is always a scum tell, may be a small one though.

The dissonance is just painful.

starting the discussion is always pro-town, congratulating the doctor is a small scum tell, and i still with it. but yernab start the discussion while trying to look pro-town and asking the "what would you do if you are scum" question is scummy. and bjl congratulating the doctor while fishing the power role makes a big scum tell.

[manho]

case of rolefishing for Ojanen:

no night kill, eh? looks like we have a doc, and they got lucky.

Why is it suspicious to assume first that we have a doctor? Nobody died tonight. It's not surprising someone might think there's a doctor.

Okay, Im definitely looking at bfl, first one to get to speculating on the doc is suspicious, not entirely unlike 'congratulating the doctor'

how/why is it suspicious? what other explanation is there? I guess it's possible the mafia chose to not kill, but that's not likely and doesn't make sense. If we had been past the 72 hour time-limit for night, I would have considered the possibility that the mafia didn't get their orders in.

Why not? It gets everyone thinking doctor, and then the doctor (if there is one) becomes tempted to claim with the information they think they gained. It's actually a more common tactic than one might think. (Also consider that it can make for a good fake claim by mafia later in the game should it become clear to them that there is no doctor.)

how are people not already "thinking doctor" with no one dying during the night?

What's the common tactic? Not killing so it looks like there is a doc, so you can claim doc? That seems quite risky.

my first reaction after seeing no one died is really that there is a doctor and the protect success. but after half a minute or so, i think of the situation where the scum did not kill at all. only mafia is sure of whether mafia attempt the kill or not.

also, "stating the existance of the doctor after the doctor successfully protected someone" is the same as "congratulating the doctor".

the whole thing why "congratulating the doctor" is fishing is that, bjl and cookie seems sure that or presuading the doctor to believe that the doctor has successfully protected someone the mafia targeted, so the doctor can clear that person. then the doctor will be tempted to claim as if a cop is tempted to claim day 2.

the only reasons why bjl and cookie are sure that there is a doctor is either 1. they are the doctor, or 2. they are the scum whose kill is blocked by the doctor. as there is at most one doctor in a newbie game, so 1 is wrong. point out the third option if you think it is a false dilemma.

i admit to be a bit opportunitive, but it doesn't make you look pro-town. it is an ad hominem argument. so you should prove you are pro-town first before attacking others.

[manho]

as for the others, soyasushi is the most townish. zach is also pro-town. meji and crazypianist need to talk more. tubby is anti-town but that's tubby.

a LoS is a bit anti-town imo, it provides target for scum to mislynch and kill.

Manho, can you explain this blatant contradiction?

that's not a LoS, and not a list that provide target for mislynch or kill. LoS provides mislynch as it said who is the scummiest, but the list from me didn't contain bjl and cookie, who is the scummiest and the one that i don't believe is a mislynch. the list also didn't give out nk options. it is likely that we have a doctor, and assuming we have a doctor, scum should choose whether killing the most pro-town one and risk that the kill is protected, or killing the other and lower the risk. so, the scum can't get benefit from the list, but town does.

I'll start off by replying to manho.
1) To the underlined part: congratulating the doctor does not equal fishing.
You yourself don't think so. The fishing is supposed to be another element, even in your thoughts.
Proof:

congratulating the doctor is a small scum tell, and i still with it ... bjl congratulating the doctor while fishing the power role makes a big scum tell.

i'm not saying the tell "congratulating the doctor" itself leads to the tell "role fishing", and my words "congratulating the doctor is a small scum tell" is talking about the tell itself. however, when we add in other fact such as bjl is persuading others to believe there is really a doctor, our "congratulaing the doctor" case is fishing.

2) Why it is natural a townie to assume that there is a doc when

the time limit for submitting the night choices has not been crossed and there is no nightkill on N1

:

you really noticed that "the time limit for submitting the night choices has not been crossed and there is no nightkill on N1"? why would a townie be aware of the night deadline? and you know bjl noticed it?

Think about it. There are 2 scum, who have no idea at this point whether there is a doc or not in this setup; regardless of whether they have a roleblocker or not, it's 50/50 chance.
If they choose to lose their nightkill, and there is a real doctor, the doctor will gain a chance to semi-confirm himself if he's in the game later. PLUS there is the person the doc actually protected who will be also semi-confirmed by the lack of kill, and scum has no control over who this is. N1 the doc chooses from 7 players - 5 town, 2 scum if D1 lynch was town - the semi-confirmed person will more likely be town. Of course it just could be scum, but that's an extremely shaky and risky gambit to make just for that reason.
There could also be a cop. If this is a setup where scum has a roleblocker, I'd say they were pretty insane to choose to no-kill, because in the case of a real doc+cop the cop-confirmed and plus didn't die -"confirmed" could later very possibly lead to auto-lose. Messy and really risky gambit for no real reason.
If it's goon+goon it's still risky, gives up the benefit of a nightkill and you would easily end up with 2 semi-confirmed players late in the game, and those are really inconvenient for scum.

These kind of gambits are more plausible when scum has more knowledge of what is in the setup, through a flip of a powerrole or so. Here, I'd say wild things are possible, but very unlikely.

but we have mafia no-kill in day 1 for many games, and they are all stupid? and the semi-confirmed things is wrong as scum can be the one that was protected and be the semi-confirmed one. and you are dismissing all the case where scum counter-claim cop or doctor. so, mafia no-killing in day 1 is a common and not bad tactic, it depends on the situation of each game.

And just to make sure, no, the likely doc here should not claim today.
But all of this talk of my slot or Cookie attempting to persuade them to claim, it's not true. My previous incarnation or him never implied they should come out. Just said it's likely there's a doc and got hell for it.

it is a newbie game, and you shouldn't assume all doctor knows not claiming is the best tactic.

Also, by going your own arguments of fishing, isn't it much worse to be shouting "he must be scum or doctor!" as you are doing in Cookie's case?

yes, i'm concluding that he should be the doctor or scum. who else can be sure that there is a doctor? maybe the mod do.

i admit to be a bit opportunitive, but it doesn't make you look pro-town. it is an ad hominem argument. so you should prove you are pro-town first before attacking others.

1. You admit to have been opportunistic.
Then tell me, what reason does a pro-town player possibly have to be opportunistic? Scum wants to just lynch someone and survive. To town the tides are much less relevant. Town wants to hunt and lynch scum, regardless of who is currently under pressure.
Opportunism is a heavy scumtell.

being busy is a reason. as i was behind the game for many times, i need to rely on other's discussion to get back in the game. so, my best way to do so is the look for who is being accused and then look at his ISO to see if he is really scummy for me, and i usually have my own reason to vote. that is scum-hunting.

2. Saying that your behaviour has been opportunistic is in no way an ad hominem attack. A short hand for someone who behaves opportunistically is an opportunist. We are supposed to be analyzing each others' behaviour.

i think i forgot to state that the ad hominem attack is refer to the attack on my accusation. you should be defending yourself now as deadline is near and you are the leading one for a lynch, so your attack on me seems to be an ad hominem attack on my accusation on you. in other words, me being "opportunistic" does not make my case on you worse.
wait, you are right, and i forgot that you need to push for someone else's lynch to stay alive. so, your attack may not be ad hominem, and you should be defending yourself and attacking someone at the same time.

3. No one can just "prove" they are pro-town.
I am attacking the arguments against my slot that I feel are weak and I'm scumhunting. That is exactly what I should be doing right now. Either people hopefully will see the arguments don't hold water and that there are stronger arguments against others and maybe we will lynch scum instead. Or they will not listen to me, choose to lynch me anyway and then I will have generated a bunch of guaranteed pro-town perspective and points for analysis for tomorrow's lylo.

and that's what i mean by "prove"

[manho]

@others, while you are examining ojanen's case on me, please be aware that i have a case on ojanen/bjl/yernab.

@mod: when is the deadline?

[manho]

sorry mod, i've found the deadline. it's 4/11, which is next wednesday.

[manho]

@ojanen: bjl is implying the doctor should claim. proof? yes, i am the doctor and i was tempted to claim after bjl's posts. i protected soyasushi last night.

my LoS is intended to give scum target for night kill, and tell you that i had proteced soyasushi after i were night killed.

[manho]

the last post is really a role claim.

[manho]

Why did you claim now?????

as i found my argument is actually based on the fact that i'm the doctor.

[manho]

we need everyone else to speak more, and should comment on ojanen's case on me: is it scum tunneling or just town making a valid case.

[manho]

@mod: we need more time. can you extend the deadline?

^ Ladies and gentlemen, those are townish looking thought processes.
Slightly tragically I'm leaning more and more like I share a wincon with both of you, so I'll bring some counterpoints.

Can you please reread page 10 once neutrally?
Sequence of events:

1.Cookie says BEFORE suspicion on me: "First, we need to examine the bandwagon on Wrath." (note: brings up a point that makes himself look worse)
...
7. Cookie is left wondering why noone is looking at the wagon:
...

...

cookie is emphasising that we should look into the wagon on Wrath, but not the scum tell we spot in D2. the wagon is worth an investigation, but it is possible that only one or none of the scums is in the wagon. and the wagon is deadline-pushed, but not scum-pushed, so we can't really get much from the wagon. cookie is just trying to distract our focus to last night's wagon. and along with cookie's twilight talk, he is probably setting up a mislynch on tubby.

as ojanen is being more pro-town in day 2 though bjl is scum, i'll

unvote

and

vote: cookie

[manho]

@ojanen: cookie is the scum, and you are most likely his buddy, but i still see a small chance that cookie is scum buddying with you. it's really small.

[manho]

But about the underlined-sentence, why wouldn't scum love getting on a deadline wagon? It's really the perfect excuse. Especially people like Zach who, for goodness' sake, keep their random vote until 5 days before the deadline while not scumhunting.

why do scum need to jump on a deadline wagon. wrath is going to be lynched, so the scum can choose not to jump on the wagon.

the reason why people are looking at a wagon to look for scum is that we need 5 votes to mislynch someone in day 1, but there are only 6 townies that would vote, so a mislynch without scum involving is near to a unanimously wrong town. therefore, we usually conclude that there must be a scum or two on the wagon, but that can't be applied to wrath's case as at deadline, the one with the most votes got lynched. it may only take 3 votes to a lynch and scum don't have to involve in it.

Also, if you think the wagon isn't scum-pushed, what on earth are you doing voting Cookie?

so when did i say i'm voting cookie as he was pushing the lynch? he is scum for knowing wrath will flip town in twilight before the lynch scene and setting up the next mislynch in twilight on tubby.

[manho]

kyiv is faster than me on the explanation, and i also look forward to paltry's day 2 analysis.

[manho]

@ojanen, i know what you mean, yes yes, the wagon is scum-pushed, and that scum is cookie.

what i'm saying about the deadline-pushed instead of scum-pushed is what town-cookie should think. town-cookie should not think the wagon was scum-pushed as he will then be the scum. therefore, town-cookie should think the wagon was deadline-pushed, as we basically have 3 people voting wrath, and the remaining 2 join the wagon just before the deadline.

also, it can be easily seen that cookie was setting up a lynch on tubby at twilight and when he asked us to look into the wagon. however, scum-tubby is not more likely to hammer than town-tubby, as scum-tubby really didn't have to hammer him, while town-tubby may get bored of waiting for the deadline for something (wrath's lynch) that won't change.

also, people are more willing to change their votes to the not-so-scummy player at deadline, so the chance for 5 townie voting the same townie at deadline is much higher than that not happening at deadline.

[manho]

Wowee. Firstly, I’d like to ask you to refrain from calling people unintelligent and implying they can’t read properly. Personal attacks do not bring anyone on your side.
Game-wise however, you’ve got me definitely questioning your motives.
On your vote in the wagon: Although I didn’t think the original reasons for your vote were valid, Wrath’s reaction was poor. Null-tell overall.
You do follow through on your original intention of looking at the bandwagon, and you come up with manho and tubby as scum. You call both tubby and bjl useless, however you suspect one and not the other. Does tubby’s activity mean he’s scum while bjl’s inactivity imply town?

If you have problems with the way I play, you can skip over anything I post! That'd be counter productive, though.

And, yes, active lurking is much more suspicious, and trying to push a wagon on a lurker.

so you are saying tubby is pushing a wagon on bjl for the reason that bjl is lurking? have you read the game? if i were you i'll call you unintelligent and can't read properly.

[manho]

manho: Your doc claim came at a weird time, and the only explanation for it, is that you didn't think people could see your arguments as plausible without it. Why?

yes, as part of my arguments are based on the fact that i'm the doctor. this is the first time i tried to breadcrumb, the LoS things, but it fails.

[manho]

@mod: can we have a vote count?

[manho]

there will be a no-lynch if there is a tie, which is bad. we should lynch cookie.

[manho]

On manho

I'm getting a definite feeling of buddying from manho towards tubby. He goes out of his way to defend tubby whenever he can, but I do like his case on EC in Post 291 and Post 300

i always go all out to defend someone who i think is pro-town. you can look at Mafia 99 where i start defending Far_Cry from page 11 towards the end of that day against Flave's attack.

I really don't like this statement though:

no, i'm happy with crazy being replaced. the replacement should buy my case instead of yours, if you really have one. but you will have hope in it. but bjl shouldn't be replaced. he was sick, but he will not be sick forever. and now bjl is posting, and didn't ask for a replacement. the only reason why you want bjl to be replaced is that you two are scum-buddy and you want someone else to help defend bjl.

The replacement should buy your case?

And bjl shouldn't be replaced. He just said that he wasn't going to defend himself or participate further. I think it's perfectly sensible to ask for a replacement that will be active.

yes, but cookie is looking for supports, really.

@tubby, maybe we can lynch bjl today and cookie tomorrow.

Setting up future lynches is a scum tell.

it is not a scum tell if there is enough reasons behind it.

[manho]

@tubby, maybe we can lynch bjl today and cookie tomorrow.

i was convincing tubby to vote bjl for today then. we both think they are both the scum, and they have strong links, so we probably would re-analyse cookie if bjl flip town, and cookie is very likely to be scum if bjl flip scum. this is not setting up future lynch. and people are always saying "we should go after YYY if XXX flips town" or "ZZZ is scum if YYY flips scum". i don't think my sentence is much different from them.

[manho]

@kyiv: the bjl-cookie-scum-interaction has nothing with cookie setting up mislynch. and cookie is not scum for setting up mislynch solely, and the bolded "town" is to show cookie knew wrath would flip town, not only for setting up mislynch. cookie set up two future lynches after wrath was lynched, tubby if town and crazy if scum. but i (and tubby?) am pushing for two lynches at the same time, and am happy to lynch both of them today, even before one of them is lynched. that's different. the thing that i was tempted to claim is true, and i remember there is a post between bjl's and my posts by crazy(?) saying the doc shouldn't claim.

[manho]

i really want cookie lynched. vote cookie please.

[manho]

@kyiv: the bjl-cookie-scum-interaction has nothing with cookie setting up mislynch. and cookie is not scum for setting up mislynch solely, and the bolded "town" is to show cookie knew wrath would flip town,

You never ever said why you thought this. You just said it. No one else provided it as a reason, nor did anyone provide any thoughts relating to this. So I ignored it, with good reason.

you should read my case first.

cookie set up two future lynches after wrath was lynched, tubby if town and crazy if scum. but i (and tubby?) am pushing for two lynches at the same time, and am happy to lynch both of them today, even before one of them is lynched.

That sounds even scummier than before! Now you don't care if they flip town or not? You just want them dead. It's okay to state a suspicion of someone if another person flips a certain alignment, but to lynch two people regardless of alignment is pretty off-putting to me.

no, setting up future lynch based on alignment flip is scummier than setting up two lynches at the same time. i have reasons to vote for both of them, but cookie don't.

that's different. the thing that i was tempted to claim is true, and i remember there is a post between bjl's and my posts by crazy(?) saying the doc shouldn't claim.

I'm still finding it hard to believe since you were soooo convinced that it was "congratulating the doc", you argued against it until Ojanen herself cleared it, even when Cookie and myself both fought against it.

you are not me, so you don't know my thought.

I don't like either lynch wagons at this point. I'm finding Manho the scummiest even with his doc claim (or perhaps even especially because of it). Both Zach and Cookie seem town to me, especially since Cookie is not riding the rival wagon to his own safety, that screams town to me. I also can't find any arguments to why Cookie is scum, just blank accusations that I don't agree with and have fought to death over. Zach is still voting Cookie and he hasn't exactly given reasons why recently, just that he's unsure of Cookie's defense of Bjl (which was way way back). With all that said, I'm not buying Manho's doc claim, nor am I buying anyone's arguments that Cookie is scum. So for now:

Vote: Manho

and the reasons?

[manho]

so short, my biggest reasons to vote cookie is that, he is pushing hard for warth's lynch, but he know wrath will flip town in twilight.

Just remember, if Wrath shows scum, look straight to crazypianist right afterwards. If he doesn't, which I highly doubt will happen, look to the Wrath bandwagon.

I like how you want people to look at us if you show town (Quite unlikely, by the way), yet you don't defend yourself at all. You're just saying you will show town, trying to convince people that they're making a wrong lynch, yet there's actually no real effort to defend yourself against any claims, is there?

Wow.
Well, if Wrath shows townie, I'll know who to look at next.

He'll be lynched by deadline anyway...

Now if this doesn't sound like complete scum crap to me then nothing does.

And while I did come out with what side I am/was on this whole time, few seem to trust that so we'll have to wait until deadline to for ya'll to find out for sure

Well, if you're really town, I fail to see why you didn't put any effort into defending yourself at the end, and instead gave up.

those post is before Wrath flips town, but cookie had already known Wrath will flip town. i really can't see a town pushing the lynch hard to do so.

[manho]

i've protected starbuck last night, just random.

paltry has a really good point there that tubby and zach should do an analysis on each of the 4 of us, that will be useful for us the hunt for the last scum.

i believe tubby more than zach.

@mod: V/LA until 20/11

[manho]

i'm sick again, and that's why the V/LA last until today.

i believe tubby more than zach, tubby is pro-town after he claimed, and the change in behaviour is significant.

i really don't like the idea of no-lynch. if we no-lynch and paltry get nk'ed, tubby get blocked, we will be in lylo with no information gained. mylo is better than lylo as if we lynched the scum today, we will get some extra days. and the situation will be even better if the roleblocker was lynched.

so,

vote: zach

[manho]

i'm still here and my vote are still on zach.

[manho]

welcome Mr Finch, and now i become the only one alive who is not replacing in.

[manho]

do we need to prob our mod? i think so.

[manho]

sorry for not being here, i'm busy with final exam these days.

i've protected Mr. Finch last night.

[manho]

i agree with the plan to lynch starbuck today and kyiv tomorrow to have a win.

[manho]

i think there is still a small chance that Mr Finch is scum.

PaltryExcuse should be cleared as there is no reason for scum to no-kill night 1.
i am also cleared as i can only be scum with mr finch, but now zach flip scum. mr finch confirm there is a roleblocker, so there exist a doc, that's me.

but it is still possible that mr finch is the last scum, knowing there is no roleblocker and the doc claimed, so there is no cop and it is safe to claim cop.

another thing is that why don't the scum roleblock me and kill mr finch, or roleblock mr finch and kill me?

[manho]

thanks kyiv and vel, the roleblocker blocking mr finch is a reasonable tactic last night. but goon-mr finch no-killing is also reasonable.

vote: starbuck

starbuck is the most scummy here. i still believe tubby's claim. and kyiv is pro-town for bringing up the tactic that got her lynched and the town win.

[manho]

first time being the doc here, and the first guess is right. soyasushi is too pro-town day 1. expect for that protection, i suck the whole game. the replacements got us the win.

@mr finch, the chance that you are scum is always there, and i'm not suggesting you are scummy, but that you are not cleared.

hope to see you all soon in other games.