Mafia 39: Back to Gambits - Game over!

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/firmcon

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I'm not sure it's in the town's best interest to lynch someone on the off chance that the bookie might have picked them.

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I'm in agreement with everything SpeedyKQ just said, save using BabyJesus as a "fallback choice" for today. I think that could be too easy of a cop-out.

I also did find jeep's reaction to be unusually strong.

I also strongly think that BabyJesus's actions so far are counterproductive.

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I'm in agreement with everything SpeedyKQ just said, save using BabyJesus as a "fallback choice" for today. I think that could be too easy of a cop-out.

I also did find jeep's reaction to be unusually strong.

I also strongly think that BabyJesus's actions so far are counterproductive.

Actually, I'd like a little more explanation, please :
- What do you mean by "cop-out" ?
- Why do you think BJ's vote on jeep to be counter-productive when, at the same time, you admit that jeep's reaction was "unusually strong" ?

Sure. As to the first question, by "cop-out" I mean "uses this as justification instead of coming up with geuine/good reasons". If as a whole we agree to lynch someone based on mechanics on day one, I think we do ourselves a huge disservice later down the road when looking back for voting patterns.

As to the second question, I did not say that BJ's vote on jeep was counterproductive.

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I've always understood an OMGUS vote to be voting purely (or mostly) because one is angry, or spiteful, that they have been voted for by another - especially if they see no good reason for it.

Your vote didn't seem to be motivated by anger or spite, but you claimed to have deduced that, logically, a vote for you was a scummy thing to do.

The end result in terms of votes is the same - a vote each. However, it's more malicious than an OMGUS vote. Your claim that it was logically motivated, rather than spiteful, was intended to encourage others to follow your bandwagon. And that struck me as scummy.

Hmm...I've always understood OMGUS as playful and absurd rather than spiteful and angry. That seems overly agressive, or perhaps mischaracterizing.

Vote: dybeck.

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I haven't seen any reason to change my vote from dybeck. In fact, I think I find it more intriguing that he claims we'll find out a lot from today's voting patterns while he offers up no vote himself. Quite happy with my vote.

I'm sort of meh on the whole jeep vs. HezLucky thing. I'd vote HezLucky over jeep at the moment (in part for reasons mentioned by StD in the post previous), but I'm more inclined to look elsewhere right now.

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Clarification: dybeck hasn't offered up a significant vote.

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I'm leaning towards this. I'm feeling much more confident about dybeck being scum, though.

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The logic behind my dybeck vote comes from his posts: I thought his comment here...

There's no way we should lynch BabyJesus just because of his reputation as a Day 1 lynch.

If we're going to lynch him, it should be for all the reasons we usually lynch him.

...presupposed we should lynch BabyJesus, which was odd. His characterization of an OMGUS was unnecessarily harsh as well, then explicitly states that "whoever we lynch tonight, we're going to be able to tell a lot from voting patterns here", despite his not having cast a vote. The other possibility I considered was thrown out the window when he called his lack of a vote "an oversight". This play is not only unusual to me, it is play that I feel would more likely come from scum than town. Hence, my vote.

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STD's explanation seems solid...but the way he's hesitating to claim kind of bugs me, it sounds sort of like scum fabricating a power role claim...or it could just be a town player with a powerful role not wanting to claim.

FOS: Pariah

for baiting.

Also, I'm not sure a mass-claim is an inherently bad idea, and I'm more suspicious of those shooting it down right away. I'm not at all convinced it would be beneficial, but if it were potentially game-breaking, scum would want to shoot it down awfully quick. I'm not sure what the harm in

suggesting discussing

the idea is. And HezLucky's last post only makes me more suspicious of him.

Also, BabyJesus, stop being unhelpful.

I'm still the happiest with my vote on dybeck.

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Did I miss anything?

There is a possible scenario in which we specify that

no one

claims the doctor roles, we specifically state that they claim some other role (presumably townie), and demand that doctor claims are never made. It would keep the scum in the dark as much as the town as to whether or not the docs were dead, and leave it dicey as to whether or not it's "safe" to kill cops. In any case, I'm still not sure it's a good idea. (I like Thoth's discussion of the idea.) Also, it's more of a "now or never" proposition, as more people are killed at night, we're less able to identify badguys by counter-claims (more questions as to dead people and all that).

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While I'm not convinced at all that dybeck is telling the truth, it makes him a poor choice for a lynch today.

Unvote: dybeck, Vote: HezLucky

. I think he's scum, too.

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I'm still happiest with my vote on HezLucky. After my cursory read-through, BabyJesus seems all over the map, and I'd like to explore that more later. In any case, I don't think StD's lynch today would be in our best interests.

*sigh*

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As for HezLucky, he's contributing well and he seems to be raising valid points that are likely to contribute to finding scum. I don't have a particularly strong sense either way on him, but I'm more suspicious of those who hide than those who contribute positively.

I felt more like he was contributing a lot, but it wasn't helpful, and in some instances counter-productive. Wasn't he really, really quick to shoot down exploring potentially scum-outing claiming ideas?

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I don't see a compelling reason for the masons to claim now.

I'm more and more happy with my vote on HezLucky.

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Jeep seemed like such an obvious mafia hit last night. The fact that the archangel didn't protect him makes me think the archangel is probably dead.

What do others think?

OH MY HOLY FLAMINGLY SCUMMY THINGS TO SAY

THE SCUMMINESS BURNS MY EYES OH NO AHHHHHHHHH

Seriously, do you think discussion like this would be helpful to anyone but the scum right now? Really?

Vote: dybeck.

I also think the vigilante (who is presumably alive unless it was kristocker) should kill Fuldu, and that the bookie should bet on it.

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I think the obvious route is to resurrect Jeep. He's town for sure, so no risk of resurrecting Saulus or so and his insights might be worth more than an investigation.

I really like this idea.

I'm also all for us directing the vig/bookie each night like last night, if and as long as both remain alive, we can be getting innocents back (like jeep) or getting investigations.

Time to re-read to see some Day 1 voting patterns.

Also, I'm curious as to BabyJesus's vote.

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The only problem that I see with resurrecting Jeep is that the scum obviously know he's innocent too so he'll be an immediate target for death. It's true that the Archangel and Sorcerer could both protect him, but it's kind of high odds that both are still alive with the number of dead people we have.

Did I miss something, or is adding confirmed townies to the mix a bad thing? Especially if the scum have to toy with whether or not he'll b protected, or whether or not they think they should go after someone else with a role, and so forth?
With how things have been going, if we have a lynch and three nightkills a night, one successful resurrection puts us on the last day (should we need them all) with three people instead of two. That's good too.

My guess at this point is between Maximumum, Sapphire Verde, and Enigma91, in reverse scumalicious order. I have no problems opening with

Vote: Enigma91

for reasons mentioned by BabyJesus mentioned here. Since StD did turn out to be scum...

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Geez. After I look back at everything, rolandofthewhite looks much scummier, as he defended StD and tried to scare people away from the StD wagon, and tried to bait an Angel claim/disclaim from BabyJesus. I'm thinking if Enigma is scum he's mafia, and I'm also thinking that if rolandofthewhite is scum, he's mafia. But I'm beginning to think roland is more likely to be scum here.

Also, this is a little too prophetic:

I admit I could be wrong. If STD is scum, he's setting it up awfully nice for me to look like scum too.

StD didn't really set up anything, rolandofthewhite did.

So, I think I'm reversing my previous post, with

Unvote: Enigma91, Vote: rolandofthewhite

. As far as my thoughts on who's our last werewolf, my concerns with SapphireVerde/Pariah are only mildly voting record related (they have none), and more with Pariah's earlier baiting. My concern with Maximumum is over big_kahunia's early defense of dybeck, and lack of voting. My concern with Maximumum is declaring she welcomes investigation, which at first I thought indicated more likely to be pro-town (given we know there aren't godfathers), but now I'm thinking it's more likely this is scummy behavior.

Also, re: BabyJesus, I think the resurrection is better, as even with an investigation, we don't have "confirmed" townies, either with the death of the bookie or because the bookie must choose to look for mafia or werewolf.

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I endorse the Maximumum wagon as well as where my vote is now, my suspicions have only deepened of both since my last post.

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For the record, I'm hesitant to believe rolandofthewhite's claim. I suspected the seer is already dead. If we do have another seer, now is the time to counter-claim. In any case, he was early in voting for dybeck, so I'm more likely to give him the benefit of the doubt now. I also think he's a poor lynch now, and if he's still around by the end-game and there's still a scum we haven't found yet, he probably should go. In any case, I think moving on is best.

Unvote: rolandofthewhite. Vote: SapphireVerde.

Next best guess.

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Actually, looking over vikingfan's history, he's said a couple of things which I think would much more likely come from a pro-town player than a scum player. (I'm working on a theory of townie tells, and I suspect very strongly that vikingfan is pro-town at this point.)

I don't see any problem with an SV lynch at this point. I think there are still much better targets out there for a mayor kill.

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Thesp, post all your suspiscions.

Sure. I think SapphireVerde is likely scum. I'm none-too-certain about either of rolandofthewhite or Maximumum, but I do think it may be worth testing out Maximumum. Astronaut is conceivable as mafia, though I find him unlikely to be werewolf. Enigma91 is also conceivable, and I'd like him back to speak with us. In fact, he's probably worth a mayor-kill, pending claim. Beyond that, it's tougher. I believe BabyJesus, vikingfan, and Blackberry are pro-town. There are several conceivables, but it's getting more difficult at this point.

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I don't know WHY, but I believe Roland's too... His choices, I don't know, as soon as I read it, it all seemed to fit and make sense, LOL.

So you think scum making up a claim would claim irrational choices?

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Vote: Viking

I forget why I find you scummy, but I do so deal with it *bwhahahaha*.

The vikingfan suspicions seem to be the most irrational to me at this point. Why? He's giving off townie tells, not scum tells, it seems to me.

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I think vikingfan needs to claim now.

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YAUS!!!!!

Kill them both. Vikingfan first. I'm the vig. I targetted HezLucky N2 because I thought he was scummy, and was testing a theory in the works from a thread on MiseTings about agressive vigging. I targetted Fuldu N3 at the request of the town, since he was quite obviously scum. So...

Let's lynch vikingfan, but let's have Maximumum order the kill on Iammars. I'll be happy to vig whomever we would like tonight. That would leave us with one scum left if my numbers are right (we have 1 wolf, 1 mafia, 1 judas/saulus/whatever).

What a rout.

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Well, if we're having Maximumum save her shot...

Unvote: Fritzler, Vote: vikingfan.

I am the real vig here but I don't see what I can say that will change people's minds at this point. Is there anything?

Nope, you lying scummity scum.

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The triple vig claim was great.

HezLucky, what were you?

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I love this setup. Let's play again!

YUS!

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I love this setup. Let's play again!

sucks to be one of the few townies though....

Why? I don't understand.

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NECRO!!!

Any chance this will actually be run again like this? I'm serious about being willing to play the exact same setup again.