Mafia 108 - Mafia With The Quickness - over!

[Glork]

Vote: Bogre

WAGON GO GO GO GO

[Glork]

WARNING: TANGENTIAL RANT AHEAD.

I do not wish this to become a distraction to finding scums in this game, but I have to get something off my chest regarding general mafia theory.

Unfortunately, there have not been enough games using the random question system to give a good statistical analysis. My initial research shows, though, that it has more often led to town victories. Most of the games that I have read in which the random question system leads to a mislynch are due to the town lynching the questioner for going against the established norm of the site. With more question games, this stigma would be alleviated.

Your initial research is bullshit. I don't want you to do this in-game, because it will ultimately serve as a huge distraction to actually finding scum, but after this game I'm going to make a thread. In said thread, I want you to explain how your observation of RQS vs RVS constitutes a valid analysis of a game which has literally dozens (and possibly hundreds) of variables. Are you really naive enough to believe that RQS vs RVS is the sole (or even a primary) cause of victory in Mafia?

Ultimately, the Random Whatever the Fuck You Want to Call it Stage is nothing more than an icebreaker. The RWFYWTCS is significantly LESS important than the pages immediately after RWFYWTCS. I don't care if it's RQS or RVS or Random-Theory-Discussion-Stage or anything else. But people don't find scum through the arbitrary start-of-game crap. They find scum through whatever comes AFTER the arbitrary start-of-game crap.


END RANT.







That said, we should lynch Bogre.

[Glork]

WARNING: TANGENTIAL RANT AHEAD.

I do not wish this to become a distraction to finding scums in this game, but I have to get something off my chest regarding general mafia theory.

Unfortunately, there have not been enough games using the random question system to give a good statistical analysis. My initial research shows, though, that it has more often led to town victories. Most of the games that I have read in which the random question system leads to a mislynch are due to the town lynching the questioner for going against the established norm of the site. With more question games, this stigma would be alleviated.

Your initial research is bullshit. I don't want you to do this in-game, because it will ultimately serve as a huge distraction to actually finding scum, but after this game I'm going to make a thread. In said thread, I want you to explain how your observation of RQS vs RVS constitutes a valid analysis of a game which has literally dozens (and possibly hundreds) of variables. Are you really naive enough to believe that RQS vs RVS is the sole (or even a primary) cause of victory in Mafia?

Ultimately, the Random Whatever the Fuck You Want to Call it Stage is nothing more than an icebreaker. The RWFYWTCS is significantly LESS important than the pages immediately after RWFYWTCS. I don't care if it's RQS or RVS or Random-Theory-Discussion-Stage or anything else. But people don't find scum through the arbitrary start-of-game crap. They find scum through whatever comes AFTER the arbitrary start-of-game crap.


END RANT.







That said, we should lynch Bogre.

Comments on what has happened so far?

That said, we should lynch Bogre.

[Glork]

That said, we should lynch Bogre.

I disagree.

That's because you'd rather ask silly questions than lynch scums.

[Glork]

Dammit, Bogre.

Original Roll String: 1d2

1 2-Sided Dice: (1) = 1

[Glork]

Unvote, Vote: Netopalis

[Glork]

She's mentioned that in every game I've played with her in, I think, so I don't think its anything beyond a disclaimer for her meta.

Actually people mention it before I do, or I need to bring it up for some reason. I wish I could go through a game without someone, anyone mentioning it.

Oh yay dice rolls, what do the numbers on the dice mean, Glork? Why did you use dice?

I'm sure you can figure it out if you bother to read and think.

[Glork]

kmd wins a prize

[Glork]

I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.

Ok, Mae is town.

That sure changed quickly for bien ga "pretty solid read."

[Glork]

EBWOP: *BEING A

[Glork]

I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.

Ok, Mae is town.

That sure changed quickly for bien ga "pretty solid read."

Yeah. More information helps.

I take the prize back.



The correct answer was, "When I said 'solid read' I was really just talking out my ass."

How solid are your other "solid reads"?

[Glork]

It was a solid read considering the information availible at the time.

Neto, I still think is scum. Haylen, nothing has really changed. Saint is probably still town. You're probably town. Bogre is probably town. Netlava is probably scum.

Big Red X.


You can't say that a read was "solid given the context/information." That gives you license to "change your mind" based on "more information" at virtually any time of your choosing.

Unvote, Vote: kmd

for weasel-wording.

[Glork]

It was a solid read considering the information availible at the time.

Neto, I still think is scum. Haylen, nothing has really changed. Saint is probably still town. You're probably town. Bogre is probably town. Netlava is probably scum.

Big Red X.


You can't say that a read was "solid given the context/information." That gives you license to "change your mind" based on "more information" at virtually any time of your choosing.

Unvote, Vote: kmd

for weasel-wording.

Well when one of my reads changes, I'm not going to keep pushing the original read.

If you think there's a reasonable chance that your read would change, you shouldn't use words like "solid" and "probably."

You just stated that Netlava is "probably scum." Do you really think there is a greater-than-50%-chance that he is scum? If you are that certain, why aren't you kicking and screaming for his lynch? A

probable

scumlynch D1 is something that ANY town would take.

[Glork]

If you think there's a reasonable chance that your read would change, you shouldn't use words like "solid" and "probably."

It's more persuasive that way. And at the time, I was confident in the read.

So you were talking out your ass, like I said.

YDo you really think there is a greater-than-50%-chance that he is scum? If you are that certain, why aren't you kicking and screaming for his lynch?

There's a greater than 50% chance that I'd pick him as scum now.

Not remotely the same thing. Please answer my question.

[Glork]

No, I believed the read to be accurate.

Please answer my question.

No, there isn't a 50% chance on anyone's alignment.

I can't tell if you're just playing the fool or not, but I'm going to try to explain this very clearly.


In your average 12-13 player game, there are 3-4 scums, which is 25-33%. If you are protown, then at the start of a game, any other player has a 25-33% chance of flipping scum if they were to be lynched immediately.

You stated that a player (in this case, Netlava) is "probably scum." By its very definition, the word "probably" means that you believe there is a >50% chance that Netlava is scum.

Now, there are two things that I want to know:
1) If I were to dayvig Netlava right now, do you think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum? I want you to think about what that means before answering.
2) If the answer to the above is "yes, I do think there is a greater-than-50% chance that he will flip scum," why aren't you pushing his lynch?

[Glork]

I'm getting better. Page 2 and I have 4 pretty solid reads. Neto and Mae as scum. Haylen and Saint as town.

Bull. Sounds more like attempted justification for things you already know.

FOS KMD

I dobut it's even things he already knows. It sounds to me like he's just trying to get people to fall into his line of thought.

Your post, annachie, is exactly in line with the original point I was trying to make, which is: Very rarely does a player actually have a "solid read" on Page 2 of a game... much less FOUR "solid reads."

KMD was talking bigger than he actually thought, and that implies that his voiced "opinions" are insincere.

[Glork]

Unvote, Vote: Mae

[Glork]

By the way, I was totally going to make the obligatory "pics or it didn't happen" re: camn and Haylen, but I decided to be the bigger man. For once.

[Glork]

By the way, I was totally going to make the obligatory "pics or it didn't happen" re: camn and Haylen, but I decided to be the bigger man. For once.

That would require a different ort of photo proof.

I show them mine if they show me theirs? O.o

[Glork]

If I had ten kids at my age, there'd be cause for alarm.

[Glork]

Has Elli used said playstyle to success in past game?

BabyJesus's playstyle would have made your eyes explode, Neto, but he was one of the finest scumhunters MafiaScum has ever seen.

[Glork]

I'm not asking if his side won or lost. I mean, were his own ultimate suspicions more or less accurate?

[Glork]

Do you think that Elli's reasons were "wrong" in the previous game where he ultimately found/voted/lynched/whetevered the scums?

[Glork]

Bleh, didn't realize it was ongoing.



Neto, the point I'm trying to circle around to is that there's a very reasonable chance that Elli has a method to his madness. Like I said, go look up some games that BabyJesus played. You would HATE his posting, his playstyle. But he was uncanny at being able to find scums while looking like he was just randomly labeling people "town" or "scum."

That's not to say that I believe Elli is protown, or that his suspicions are correct here. But Elli has piqued my interest. I think there will be pressure for him to be accurate here, else he's going to have a noose around his neck soon enough.

[Glork]

Glork, what do you think about Neto?

Vote: Neto

Undecided. I do agree with you that his "scumhunting to words posted" ratio is depressingly low, but I'm not willing to call it definitively scummy at the moment. This particular spat seems to be little more than a conflict in playstyles.

[Glork]

Even a broken watch is right twice a day. Ellibereth has been right on occasion, but his posts show no real reasoning behind said suspicions. I attack players of all statuses for this - I'm good friends with Albert, but him and I have butted heads over this issue on a number of different occasions.

I think that part of the problem is that, since there have in the past been players who used cryptic methods to achieve results, it is automatically assumed that a person who plays cryptically gets results. I played a game in which Battle Mage was *convinced* that I was scum without posting reasoning. He then attacked me when I asked for reasoning and the town followed because he apparently has this mystical aura about him that makes people follow him. I was town, of course, and BM ended up killed right before the scum won the endgame.

I don't think people make that assumption. I think that they can be persuaded to follow said person, but the playstyle is more results-driven than any other. If Elli can make it work, fine. If not, he's going to have to change or face a lot of early lynches.

Also, BM is a horrible example to use. If BabyJesus is the paragon of said playstyle, BM is the anti-Christ. It's sad to know that, after years of being on Scum, BM hasn't realized that he just can't make it work.


On a semi-related note, you called Elli's playstyle "deadweight if not downright scummy." Are you okay with potentially cutting away "deadweight town" on D1?

[Glork]

Glork: Yeah, I'm perfectly fine with a policy lynch, given that there have been substantial scumhunting efforts made during the day, the policy lynched player has at least a bit of scummishness and that there is not a strong reason to do otherwise. As said earlier, D1 lynches are statistically bad - the vast majority of them are mislynches. Therefore, if we're probably going to mislynch anyway, it's best to mislynch the player that will contribute the least. I also find, however, that often times the player that you want to policy lynch is the player that's scum anyway.

For someone who complained about sub-optimal D1 success rates, this is a very odd stance for you to take. This post says to me "well, we tried to find scum, but in the absence of being able to do so, I'm okay lynching Elli instead."

I can't work my head around the notion that you cite "improving D2 gameplay" as a reason to do away with the Random Voting Stage, then sit here and tell me that "well since D1 lynch rates are bad anyway, we might as well policy lynch." It's a vast double standard, and I don't like it at all.

[Glork]

In fact,

Unvote, Vote: Neto

[Glork]

You're conceding that Elli isn't a good scum target but is a good "policy lynch," which implies inside information.

[Glork]

I just don't buy your sincerity regarding Elli's scumminess, and I still think your willingness to settle for a policy lynch betrays your call for better D1s.

"X is scummy, but even if he's not scum, he's a good policy lynch" is not an uncommon tactic for newish scums to make.

Additionally, if you want better D1 success rates, you should be lynching players only because they are scum. No bullshit secondary reasons like "good information" or "policy lynch" or "I think X is trying to get back at me." Protown players don't try to weed out weak townspeople. Your one and only job is to hunt SCUM -- not to try to alter another person's playstyle, because you think they're "being unhelpful."


Finally -- and this has nothing to do with you being scum or town -- I think you need to get over yourself and this ridiculous idea that anybody would "come into a game" with revenge over a previous game/attack on their mind. I don't know what happened between you and Elli in any previous game, but fucking get over it. This is a different game, and this "he's trying to get back at me so he's being unhelpful" notion you've got in your head is either misguided paranoia or another bullshit, malicious excuse. Either way, it is neither needed nor wanted in this game.

[Glork]

Unvote, Vote: Mae

[Glork]

Oh, and Glork, another thing: I'm only choosing to assume that Ellibereth is still angry at me because his actions make no sense otherwise. He came into this game swinging at me to the fences for little-to-no reason. The only thing that I could think of was that he was still mad at me. I don't think it's that unreasonable of a position. Perhaps I'm wrong. I really hope that I am. But in the absence of a logical explanation to the contrary, I'm forced to accept the only answer that seems logical to me.

I suppose that's fair enough. But I think you're putting too much faith into logic. I'm not going to say that we're playing with the Joker or anything, but people do irrational things all the time. Seeking to find a logical explanation for human behavior is rather naive.

[Glork]

What are your reasons? Several have been thrown around, but what are yours specifically?

How does "for poops and giggles" grab you?

[Glork]

It doesn't. I would ask you for something you can be pinned too to some degree incase Mae flips. Probably why I really voted in this game yet. Nothing I want to be pinned too.

The cautious scum is cautious.

You pretty much took the words right out of my mouth. It's ironic that Annachie is going after me because he can't "pin me" to anything, when he can't be arsed to vote at all.

Glork, did you really throw out a random vote at this stage of the game? We aren't in RVS anymore.

Do you think my vote was random?

[Glork]

"Shits and giggles" means "because I felt like it," not "randomly."


I assure you, there was an actual reason behind my vote. Though even if there weren't, it wouldn't be the first time I random voted on Page 10.

[Glork]

Two questions for KMD: Going back to your early "four solid reads on Page 2" thing, I'm once again curious about your flip-flop on Mae. Your initial post was on Post 36. You had changed your mind regarding Mae by Post 60.

1) What caused that initial, misguided scum interpretation?
2) What caused you to change your mind about Mae?

[Glork]

Point: Kerrigan.

[Glork]

In other news, a cursory re-read of the first eight pages says:
There is a very tangible Neto/Gayle connection, as Elli noted.
Annachie looks bad.
Haylen's in the process of posting and slept through the meat of the discussion, so she gets a free pass for now.
Mae deserves more heat (and, consequently, needs to post more substantial content).
Camn may be paired with Neto and/or Gayle. Weak connection, but certainly tangible.



camn: In Post 171, you push Neto for accusing kmd of "flailing," then in Post 187, you make a very loud vote for Elli after his spat with Neto. In 207, you state that you don't think the argument is "scum/scum." I've taken that to mean that you think at most one of {Neto/Elli} is scum. Then in your most recent post, 234, you ask critical questions of both players.
I've spent the last few minutes trying to work out what's going on inside that head of yours, and I just can't. Which (if either) of these two players do you think has a reasonable chance at being scum? If both, are the scum together? Which of the two is more likely to be scum?


I feel like a bunch of people have an above-average chance of being scum, but no one or two people stand out right now. There's probably a lurkerscum, and then a couple of semi-to-normally-active scums about right now.

[Glork]

and, consequently, needs to post more substantial content

Mmmm, I see. What do you want me to talk about?

I can provide you with a list of questions to respond to, if you'd like.

[Glork]

1) Which player do you think is most likely scum? Why?
2) If that player were killed right now as scum, which player do you think is most likely to be that player's scumbuddy? Why?
3) How do you feel about Elli's play so far?
4) Are you scum?
5) How do you feel about my play so far?
6) How do you feel about kmd's attitude that you are probably protown?
7) Was your response to Question #4 a lie?
8) How do you feel about the fact that, on Page 11, Annachie and Netlava are not voting for anybody?
9) Name two players you would like to see post more suspicions/content.
10) Who did you target last night?



And, for extra credit, take one player from your answer to #9 and convince them to answer the same ten questions I just asked you.



I expect you to hand in your quiz at the end of the period, at which point it will be graded and your course grade will be mailed home to your parents.

[Glork]

Glork, 255, I lol'd.

IDK why you'd lol. I expect those questions to be answered, and I'm not moving off of Mae until they are.

[Glork]

Unvote, Vote: Neto

I like wagoning. I also like seeing claims.

[Glork]

Whoa. I missed an entire page.

[Glork]

Glork: You've attacked me several times for talking about theory too much...but now you're voting for me because we have a difference in theory? That is illogical. I'm not going to be baited into another MD discussion, and it appears to me that you're trying to make me start down that road again so that others will attack me for it. I find that to be scummy.

No, I'm voting you because sometimes I enjoy bandwagoning, and I would like to see a claim from you.

Sure, there's the fact that you showed an inconsistency in willing to settle for an Elli lynch. Sure, there's the fact that your reasons for voting Elli are largely mediocre-at-best. Sure, there's the fact that I have percieved potential scum connections between you and other players.


But no, clearly I felt like just bandwagoning you for no reason at all. And for "theory."

[Glork]

Finally, you are the one who said that you were voting me because I disliked bandwagons. That is a theoretical point.

I never said anything of the sort. Check your sources.

[Glork]

You are incorrect.


"I like wagoning" means that I like wagoning. It has nothing to do with anything or anybody else.

[Glork]

Couple of nice mis-reps there, but If I'm not willing to be held accountable for the reason for my vote, then I shouldn't vote.
Voting with no reason, or for "Shites and giigles" is not helpful because there's nothing you can be held accountable for if you're wrong.

So you:
A) Don't want to be held accountable for anything yourself.
B) Want to hold others accountable for their votes, and dislike it if they aren't.

That is, I believe, the definition of scum play.

Agree, wholeheartedly. If you're going to hide behind "not-voting," I'm going to treat every FoS, every word of dislike as the equivalent of a vote.


Protown players want 100% traceability. They are willing to be held accountable for anything and everything they say, as significant or insignificant as it may seem. And that is because they have NOTHING to hide. Your insinuation that you can be excused from critical analysis or from the responsibility of looking for scum, just because you haven't slapped down an official vote, is ridiculous. You are just as responsible for your voiced suspicions as I am for my voiced suspicions, whether either of us has voted or not.

In fact, more often than not, the ability to find scum is not merely in voting patterns, but in reading between those lines. Some would argue that suspicions not backed up by votes are MORE significant than those coupled with votes.


That said, I want you to give me a quick sentence or two (or more) about each player and how scummy they are.

[Glork]

I don't find netopalis scummy currently.

Good to know! Any thoughts on the remaining 10 players?

Shh.... baby steps. Baby steps.


I could hop to a Zachwagon, but I still want Neto to claim.

[Glork]

Shh.... baby steps. Baby steps.

Fiiine. What's your opinion on one player that is not me, Neto or yourself?

I just stated that I could get on board a Zachwagon.

[Glork]

Do you have any restrictions on when you can commute?

[Glork]

Unvote

[Glork]

Yep, the three people attacking you are most likely to be scum together. Brilliant theory.


I know this is OMGUSy, but your triple-threat of OMGUS (with the added Zachrulez OMGUS alternate) actually makes me want to put my vote back ON you.

[Glork]

EBWOP: Also, I have no idea why you keep trying to accuse me of dumping on your "no bandwagoning" theory.


FIRST of all, I stated in my initial post that it was a side-rant and that I didn't want to get into a distracting discussion. It's not my fault that you insist on trying to have the last word in any debate you get into.

Secondly, I never attacked your abhorrence to bandwagoning. All I wanted to point out was that whether we use RVS or RQS or Random Anything Else, it has little impact on whether a town wins the game. I also attacked your predisposition against Elli, because you assumed he held over some slight from another game and because you were advocating his lynch based on a difference in playstyles.

Thirdly, if you'd bother to think for just a few minutes, I doubt you'd be flatly stating that the points against you are weak/bull. The questions I asked you about Elli and the previous games were because I wanted to see if your countersuspicion of Elli was genuine or not. I asked you about his behavior in past games, and whether it was fruitful. I understand that you as a player percieve Elli's playstyle to be more disruptive than helpful, but I wanted to see if you legitimately thought that he was scummy for it, or if you were using playstyle as a tool/excuse to vote for him.

Fourthly, yeah, I sometimes have a tendency to attack people without letting them know why I suspect them right off the bat. I've found that players' actions and words tend to be more revealing when they are put in an uncomfortable situation. I don't always do this, and I won't do it throughout the course of the game, but that's exactly what I did to you. You seemed to have this near-obsession with making sure that every post and every word was distinctly beneficial to the town, so I took the exact opposite approach to rile you up a little bit and see how you respond.

And what did I see? Well what I see right now is that you seem to have a problem with anybody who disagrees with you, whether you think it's due to differences in theory, differences in playstyle, or other suspicion of scumminess. A few months ago, I would have ranted and raved for your lynch, no-questions-asked, but I actually just got finished with a game in which Ortolan did the same thing (everyone who suspected/disagreed with him was scum, everyone who agreed with him was protown), and he turned out to be protown. Eventually, I came around to the right conclusion but the combination of his loudness/forcefullness and his tendency to OMGUS people was a major contributing factor to the town's loss.

Bottom line, I haven't decided if you are scum yet or not. But what I have decided is, at this point, your play has been more disruptive to the game than just about everyone else's.

[Glork]

Huh.

Vote: Netopalis

[Glork]

Glork: Making my point

Not really. It should be pretty obvious to anybody with a shred of common sense that my post was in reaction to Elli's post.

But hey, if you want to nitpick and argue semantics, I can add that to the list of reasons to lynch you.

[Glork]

Attacking those who attack you?

Maemuki,

Glork

and KMD.

Okay, now you're definitely either scum or completely delusional, considering:
A) I attacked KMD before anybody else did;
B) I went after Annachie, who I don't believe ever placed any suspicion on me
C) I've stated my willingness to pressure Zach, who has also not attacked me.


In

no

way do I fit into the "attacking those who attack you" category. You've got nothing on me, because you know I've got you pinned, so you just arbitrarily put me into one of those three blanket categories.

[Glork]

EBWOP: D) I also grilled and voted Mae to get her to talk, and she hasn't attacked me. (In fact, she called me protown when I attacked her, so SHE doesn't fit into that category as well.)



You're making shit up at this point. You need to hang.

[Glork]

Page 10: I don't think Glork's vote on Mae was random, and he's saying it's not, so I'm a bit confused why he felt
he had to go find and example where he random voted on page 10 as town. I don't mind votes without reasons, personally,
but the fact he gave that meta-defense seems a bit odd to me. Glork?

Someone accused me of random-voting on Page 10, and it reminded me of FTF, so I posted as such. I intended it as a completely innocuous statement (by the way, I've done that before!), not as a defense of any kind.

As I recall, I didn't even say I did it "as town," so there was no meta/defense involved. I was just stating that it's not unheard of.

[Glork]

Can't wait for Netlava to flip protown so I can destroy the people who wagoned him to death.

[Glork]

Can't wait for Netlava to flip protown so I can destroy the people who wagoned him to death.

So why do you think he is protown?

Last minute wagon on someone you know is unlikely to be able to pop in and claim?

Scum are hoping to snipe a power role. Guaranteed.

[Glork]

Can't wait for Netlava to flip protown so I can destroy the people who wagoned him to death.

Lol. Yeah, I hope he's scum, I'm sure as hell sticking my neck way out on this one. I'm a bit worried about lynching him without getting a claim, but meh, I think he's more likely scum then Neto or Zach is.

Well considering I wasn't a fan of your predecessor, and you basically saved Neto's ass, I know exactly where my suspicions lie.

[Glork]

Anyway, I'm now pretty sure Glork is town here.

And I'm pretty sure you're going to nightkill me.

[Glork]

This is a post that I wrote up during the 48 hour night period, so it doesn't reflect the fact that Camn died as protown. I actually wrote it out of frustration because I expected to be nightkilled, and I wanted some kind of "see, I was right about everything" evidence for postgame. But since I lived, I'm going to post it.



Mae is almost certainly protown (or at least not Mafia scum), and probably a vanilla Townie. Variety of reasons, most important being her responses to my questions, and her desire to take responsibility for the LavaLynch. I don't think she's clever enough to try to champion mislynch responsibility before it happens, so she probably honestly thought she had caught scum.

Probable scumgroups (haven't decided if there are 3 Mafia + SK, 4 Mafia, or just 3 Mafia):
Neto/StKer/Gayle (with camn/Haylen as possible fourths/alternates)
Neto/Zach/Yos (with StKer as a very possible fourth/alternate)

If there's an SK, there's a very good chance that it's Yos.

I'm not sure if this is exactly right, but aoisdfj pasoidg japsodigha psodfj asdo. Neto or StKer had better die tomorrow, if one of them doesn't get Vigged or cross-killed tonight.


If Neto and Zach are both protown, no Mafia had a compelling reason to switch off of either player. And I find {Yos, StKer, Mae, Haylen, Neto, Gayle} all being protown to be highly unlikely. So that's pretty much out the window.

If Neto and Zach are both Mafia, then obviously Yos is suspect for having started the alternate wagon, and StKer/Gayle are suspect for making it a reality. Haylen fits, too, but for some random reason my gut thinks she's protown. That might be my own "It's just the end of D1" inaccuracy, though.

If one of {Neto/Zach} is mafia while the other is non-mafia, then Yos is probably not Mafia. Why? Because as Yos stated, he could have pushed the lynch one way or the other (to protect a scumbuddy or to appear more protown by busing). And EITHER way he swung would have been perfectly believable, so nobody could have pinned the D1 lynch on him specifically. Thus, if exactly one of those two is Mafia, then

If Neto is scum, and Zach is town, then StKer is way up on my list for pushing two alternate wagons (Zach, then Lava). Gayle's behavior towards Neto was weird, and he pushed the LavaLynch over the top, so he gets minus points as well. If there's a fourth, there's a decent chance that person was busing Neto. So Camn/Haylen seem like reasonable alternates, with a slight edge to Haylen for ultimately switching to the LavaLynch.

If Zach is scum and Neto is town, then there's not much reason to move to the Lavalynch unless you're moving from Neto. Haylen is the only person who fits that description. If I were scum, I'd take lynching a power role D1 anyday, especially if I could sit quietly on the alternate wagon and go "see, I knew we should have lynched Zach D1!" So I find this to be pretty unlikely.




Long story short:
It is highly likely that at least Neto is scum, and Zach may be scum, too. If this is the case, St Kerrigan is by far most likely to be Neto's scumbuddy. I would gladly lynch either of Neto/StK today. Depending on the Zach guilty/innocent situation, I could be content to lynch Gayle or Yos or possibly Haylen, too.

In any scenario where Yos is not Mafia scum, he is my tentative favorite to be an SK. No real reason for it, mostly just gut. The way he tried to push the nightkill to me by calling me "protown" and worrying about "sticking his neck out" says that he has an unusually vested interest in living.

Vote: Neto
FoS: StK, Gayle, Yos

[Glork]

EBWOP:

If one of {Neto/Zach} is mafia while the other is non-mafia, then Yos is probably not Mafia. Why? Because as Yos stated, he could have pushed the lynch one way or the other (to protect a scumbuddy or to appear more protown by busing). And EITHER way he swung would have been perfectly believable, so nobody could have pinned the D1 lynch on him specifically. Thus, if exactly one of those two is Mafia, then

it's unlikely that Yos would have randomly tried to start some other wagon

[Glork]

Vote: Gayle.

Your inconsistencies yesterday are noted.

Why do you think the Netlava lynch happened?

What do you think it says about Neto and Zach?

What inconsistencies do you speak of, and what else about Gayle's play led to your decision to vote him?

If Gayle is scum, who do you think are his most likely scumbuddies?

If Gayle turns out to be protown, who do you think is most likely to be scum?

[Glork]

EBWOP: That's not an inconsistency. Being unsure but having a preference is perfectly reasonable. Please come up with a reason that isn't complete garbage.

[Glork]

Why do you think the Netlava lynch happened?

Because a lot of people didn't want to lynch Neto or Zach, found a Netlava lynch preferable, or were scum taking advantage of a sudden bandwagon.

Do you think townspeople or scums had more incentive to jump to the LavaLynch?

[Glork]

Why do you think the Netlava lynch happened?

Because a lot of people didn't want to lynch Neto or Zach, found a Netlava lynch preferable, or were scum taking advantage of a sudden bandwagon.

Do you think townspeople or scums had more incentive to jump to the LavaLynch?

Looking back, scum had a very opportune moment to lynch a protown person, while keeping around the two scummiest players from Day 1. I would be willing to wager that there were scum on the Netlava wagon.

So which of those wagoners are your top suspects?

[Glork]

I don't think she's clever enough to try to champion mislynch responsibility before it happens, so she probably honestly thought she had caught scum.

Do you think I'm dumb?

I don't think you're mafia-savvy.

[Glork]

On the Netlava wagon, my top suspect is Haylen. Second is Gayle. Third is Neto. All this is based on gut feeling, though (except for Haylen), but I'm interested right now in what Bogre is trying to purport on Gayle.

Do you realize that you just mostly answered my "If Gayle is scum, who do you think are his most likely scumbuddies" question, in spite of saying just a moment ago that you wouldn't answer it?

If Haylen was your top suspect on the wagon, why did you come out of the gates voting Gayle instead?

[Glork]

Also yeah... what the hell? Subtle attack? What's SK on?

Live I've already stated, he's got a bad case of the "gottaprotectscumbuddyNeto" syndrome.

[Glork]

Bogre, Haylen looked town early Day 1. I'm no longer convinced. Gayle made that program to help him find scum. He's town. Zach was in serious danger of being lynched before Yos's idea to start a new wagon. So he's scum with Yos.

Your Gayle reason is a little dumb. The program is designed to help keep notes in ANY game. It is not specific to this game.

KMD: Regarding Zach/Yos, see my response to Bogre below.

The problem with analyzing motivations of people on a mislynch is that its so full of WIFOM as to the individual motivations of the people on it. See St.Kerrigan's post and the nebulousness of figuring out who is the responsible one for it. Indeed, the one who started the wagon probably is the most culpable, but it just as easily could have been opportunistic 2nd or 3rd, etc.

So...more for you than them. Any of those voters could have been serving the motivation to lynch someone else instead of you, but as I said its much harder to attribute a specific motivation to a specific wagoner. I believe at least one of them -had- that motivation, and so the end result is you are scum, and a good lynch, rather than trying to wade through the WIFOM wagoner by wagoner.

Did you bother to read my first post of the day? The way to find scum on the wagon is to figure out who would have scum-motivation to start or finish off a Netlava wagon.

Considering

NETO WAS SLATED TO BE LYNCHED, NOT ZACH

, your "Yos/Zach" pairing is completely backwards. If Yos wanted to "save Zach" all he had to do was NOT VOTE ZACH. Heck, he could have just voted Neto and that would have ensured that Neto would have been lynched. So the only way your Yos/Zach pairing works is if Neto is scum with BOTH of them, and he had to find a completely separate wagon to save them both.


Nobody started or pushed the Lavawagon to save Zach. It would have been to save Neto.

[Glork]

Question for Neto: Did you commute last night?


Tell the truth, now. Big Brother is watching.

[Glork]

Question for Neto: Did you commute last night?

Tell the truth, now. Big Brother is watching.

Why do we want to know this?

We

might not. But I have my reasons, not least of which is mere curiosity.

[Glork]

If Neto is scum, then probably the people who come out looking the worst are Gayle and Mae (Gayle esepcally).

Actually...if Neto is scum and Zach is town, then May leaving her vote on Lava all that time when she could have just moved it to Zach dosn't really make sense. Hmm. Ok, forget that.

Haven't I already told you that Mae is town? Why aren't you taking my word as gospel?

[Glork]

If Neto is scum, then probably the people who come out looking the worst are Gayle and Mae (Gayle esepcally).

Actually...if Neto is scum and Zach is town, then May leaving her vote on Lava all that time when she could have just moved it to Zach dosn't really make sense. Hmm. Ok, forget that.

Haven't I already told you that Mae is town? Why aren't you taking my word as gospel?

Cuz he's Scumpity Dumpty.

Unlikely. See analysis.

[Glork]

Hi Hayl! Did your vote on

Yos2

have any reasoning besides "pressuring"?

*headdesk* I have an headache. And I'm kind of busy. And tired and full of homework.

Besides, there's not a single interesting thing to talk about.

I've got three things for you to talk about.

Who do you think is most likely to be scum, why do you think that, and why aren't you voting for that player?

[Glork]

HAY GUYZ Y DONT WE JUST SPEEDLYNCH NETO WHILE HE'S NOT HERE?

[Glork]

Vote: SK

die scum die

[Glork]

By the way, I want to hear much more from Yos today. Gayle looks like a vigging, but it's pretty easy for a Serial Killer to pose as a vig, and Yos would be my top SK suspect right now.

[Glork]

PS (YEAH TRIPLEPOST), you can add rolefishing to the list of reasons StKer needs to die scum die

[Glork]

I could support a Bogrelynch. StKer is still my top suspect, though.

[Glork]

I think SaintKerrigan is scum.

He spent a lot of time saying that Neto's bandwagon was unjustified, and a day 1 all over the place with wishy washy voting, most of which where he couldn't decide whether he wanted to vote for me, Haylen, or Netlava.

Day two consisted of him turning against Neto to an extent, saying that the pr flips made his claim less likely to be true, while conveniently never actually putting his vote on Netopolis and exploring other suspects. Maybe he didn't expect Netopolis to be lynched that quickly?

Also this

I don't like Zach's subtle attack on arguably the most pro-town player in this game (Maemuki). At least the most pro-town player on the Netlava wagon (well, besides me, but I have to say that ).

is standing out like a sore thumb to me, especially considering SK's current position on Mae. (What changed your read on her btw?)

Oh and of course rolefishing...

Vote: Saintkerrigan

A+++++++ would buy again





Elli's conclusions are basically exactly what mine have been since yesterday. We both thought Gayle was suspect, but Neto/SK is very likely, with Neto/Zach/Yos being a somewhat reasonable possibility. Bogre is an excellent third option for scums.


Please lynch Kerri posthaste.

[Glork]

Your defense of StK is noted, though.

[Glork]

I do believe that's Lynch -1, folks.


StKer, I look forward to your falseclaim.

[Glork]

Boring, but expected.




=========[]

[Glork]

It's not so much as "I defended scum" as:
"I asked the known scum a few token questions which served to distance, then when push came to shove tried to force any lynch other than his.

The combination of posts 522, 543, and 545 is also hella scummy, especially within the context of vote counts. You were on Zach, decided he was "more townie," then decided that "as much as you liked" him, he was more likely to be scum, then TWO POSTS LATER posted an lolcats that he was definitively scum. This is wishy-washy suspicions to the Nth degree.

As soon as Netlava was ahead of Neto, you went into "let's flood the thread with spam" mode, as if you were trying to keep people occupied, rather than letting them think "holy shit, somebody just orchestrated a speedwagon on a guy who isn't here to claim OR defend himself."

To start off D2, you acted as though your D1 suspicions of Zach NEVER EXISTED. You immediately voted Gayle, then went after Bogre. If you thought Zach was the second most reasonable lynch option from D1, why would that suddenly change overnight? I think you realized that Zach wasn't going to be a viable lynch candidate again, so you had to find the newest convenient person to go after. After my "can't wait to lynch the people who railed Lava to death" post, you probably even knew that you had to look at people who were on the Lavawagon. Why? Because there was definitely some degree of truth in my observation.

Post 689 also indicates that you were basically spewing inconsistent crap as it popped into your head. I managed to get you to admit that there was at least one scum on the Lavawagon. Neto was the token third person on your list, which is the best place for scums to put their buddies. Just enough to distance, yet not enough that you ever have to look at them.
**I will also ONCE AGAIN note that here, you just completely abandoned your "Zach is more suspicious than Neto" stance from earlier. Another flip-flop with no explanation or consistency. That is, another indication that you're throwing out suspicions as you go along.

There is also, of course, the Post 699/Post 716 combo, in which you accuse Zach of "subtlely" blatantly stating that he believes Neto to be scum. While not true chainsaw (since Zach has not been proven protown), you're clearly trying to undermine someone's stance against now-known Scum. Super duper minus points.

And here we are, today. Your behavior today is puzzling -- your most protown behavior of the day, I will admit. In a town which has obviously shown itself to be prone to speedlynching, you chose to back off of Haylen, after actually going back and reading some content.

So, a few things I'd like to know:
1) Why, on D2, did you suddenly abandon going after Zach?
2) With the current knowledge that Neto was scum, combined with the last-minute wagon on Lava from D1, who do you think saved Neto's ass from being lynched that first day? For your convenience, the relevant vote counts are here, and here (and they show you the order in which people moved to Netlava).
3) Did you have any reason to believe on D1 that Neto was protown, aside from (and I quote you directly) "the arguments against him have been crap"?
4) Who on your wagon do you think is scum, and why? (This answer may be related to your answer to question 2, or it may be for completely different reasons.)

Unvote

to prevent a hammer before you get a chance to answer these for me.

[Glork]

By the way, I want to hear much more from Yos today. Gayle looks like a vigging, but it's pretty easy for a Serial Killer to pose as a vig, and Yos would be my top SK suspect right now.

Neah. A SK posing as a vig, and killing people who are likely to be lynched, is a bad strategy, especially in a fast mafia game. If there was a SK, then especially after a mafia gets lynched, the right move would be to start killing people everyone thinks are confirmed town. I doubt there is a SK.

Do you think that every player in this game is experienced and meticulous enough to make "the right move" here? Just because you know it's a bad play doesn't mean that everybody does.

Anyway, what do you want to hear from me? I've been very active and aggressive in this game since I replaced in, I think.

It might just be that other people are drowning this thread with posts. But from my perspective:
A) You tried to throw me to the wolves at the very end of D1, heading into night. I already touched on this, but it shows that you had a very strong desire to not-be-killed. I think you were genuinely worried that if you were right, the scums would try to take you down, and that reads "SK" to me.
B) D2 didn't really last long, so my attitude from D1 still holds.
C) I didn't like Annachie very much. He read scum to me (though I'd honestly have to go back and remind myself why).

[Glork]

In completely unrelated news, I want Bogre to claim as well. And I won't hesitate to vote him to Lynch-1 to get that claim.

[Glork]

I've entertained the idea that Ellibereth went over the top bussing Neto. I don't find it super duper likely right now, but it's on my radar. I'd definitely be cautious about assuming him to be protown.

[Glork]

I'm curious to know what it is about asking why Haylen doesn't want to claim that is considered rolefishing...

To give a proper answer, she'd essentially have to give away important information anyway.

[Glork]

Vote: Bogre

per my earlier post.

[Glork]

Eeeh...Glork?

Why do you want Bogre to claim?

He's on about the same level as Kerri suspicion wise.

I never knew your name was Glork!

What he said is the exact reason, though. It is like 95% likely that AT LEAST one of those two is scum with Neto. I want to make certain that we lynch scum today, and that involves grilling them both.

[Glork]

So if Neto is not a hider then he's... (I'll let you finish that thought.)

Oh, come on. I said I

doubted

Neto's claim, not that I

disbelieved

it. You're twisting my words there, Zach. That's not nice.

Actually, the word "I doubt that <...>" means "I find <...> unlikely to be true." So yeah, you were saying you were leaning towards disbelieving the claim.



Like Neto, StKer seems irritated that people were close to stringing him up. However, while Neto's behavior was obtuse and accusatory (an obvious sign of scum's guilty conscience), StKer seems far more genuine. His reaction especially to Zach's most recent posts rings true to me, as strange as that may sound.

I do currently like a Bogrelynch better. He's shown himself to be here, but he's skating. I think he's really hoping that StKer will bury himself by talking.

Confirm Vote: Bogre

Claim now.

[Glork]

Thanks, SK, I hadn't noticed.


I'm really okay lynching either one today. They're both the two most likely scumbaggoes at this point.


Hopefully the other gets Vigged and we get to go home after today.

[Glork]

Like I said, his language -- especially in his reactions to the push against him -- seems like genuine protown frustration.

I realize how bad this is going to look on the off-chance that Bogre is town and StKer is scum, but meh.

[Glork]

I shouldn't have tipped my hand Re: Elli, and for that I apologize. I should have either made ElliScum a huge fucking deal, or I should have kept my mouth shut so as not to tip THEM off that I was onto Elli.

I had the game figured out, though. I knew that Yos, Mae, SK, and Haylen were town for very basic, obvious reasons. Which left the two scumbags, which fit in with the larger picture in general. I guess that's why they killed me when they did.

Still, Haylen, If you're ever a Vig: Never, ever, ever vig anybody. Seriously. I still want to know what in the hell possessed you to shoot at me. (I realize that I would have died anyway, because the scums shot me, but I still want to know. I was the most blatanly obvious protown player by a MILE.)

[Glork]

I think you actually worked pretty well as an honorary scum buddy Yos

Lol. Yeah, my day 1 play was quite a spectacular success at shooting myself in the foot. I managed to take a pretty much guarenteed scum lynch and at the last second rally the troops, get everyone to follow me, and snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, haha.

I'm still pissed that you pushed through that lynch, especially after I pointed out that we had moved from obvscumlynch to obvtownlynch.

My personal opinion on logic, gut, or whatever else you want to call it is as follows: I think the real key to becoming a good town player is to use the right combination of BOTH logic and gut and to learn when you should trust one or the other. The fact of the matter is townies can sometimes seem illogical but if you could figure out whether or not the logic being used by what you consider to be an 'illogical townie' is actually genuine, then you might be able to figure out that they're town, and you could then begin focusing your scum-hunting energy elsewhere. Some people can probably get by using ONLY one or the other, but I think most people are probably using some combination of both all the time without even realizing it.

This is pretty much QFT. A combinatin of gut and logic is exactly what led me to conclude that Neto was scum, Yos was town, Mae was town, Haylen was town, and SK was town. In every case, I was able to read and comprehend what they had posted, and ask myself two questions:
"Does this make sense?"
"Does this feel right?"

It is IMPOSSIBLE to rely entirely on logic or gut and expect to win. Logically, I think Mae was probably the "scummier" lynch in endgame, but if anybody had bothered to go back and look at the end of D1 (and my observations of her on D2), she should have been VERY OBVSIOULY PROTOWN. Her championing the LavaLynch didn't make sense as scum, unless she was pulling a significant gambit. And like I said, I don't think she had the experience or maliciousness to pull off such a gambit. She should never have been considered for lynch, and I'm miffed that people kept putting her up as a potential lynch candidate.


Neto, you're probably going to hate that I'm posting this, but you were the most obvious scumbag I've seen in a long time, and I honestly can't give you a concrete or "solidly logical" reason why. It was really a whole host of little things which added up.

Did you guys think the game was balanced?
Were the deadlines a little

too

quick?
Would you play in a game like this again in the future?

1) I think it's nearly impossible to say. We had a Vigilante who shot at four protown players, and two power roles dead Night One. That's atypical for a mafia game. I would say it could very well have been balanced, but that it was probably a little too swingy.
2) No, I think they were fine. We reached a natural lynch on at least one day, which is a pretty good indicator that deadlines were fine. Making days 24 hours longer might be handy to account for things like V/LA. I know that Yos's weekend away frustrated me, because I really wanted to extract some information from him, and he just wasn't going to be around.
3) Yes. Faster games are a very nice refreshment from the drudgery of current mafia pace. I think we need significantly more "fast" mafia games.

Besides, I think it's pretty well known that Camn is a good player.

...except that I have no idea who the fuck camn is (no offense, camn), and I certainly would have killed someone else (probably Mae or somesuch). I perfectly understand the reasoning behind Haylen's vig, and there were valid reasons to believe that you

could

have been scum -- especially after Neto/Zach was known. She just happened to get it wrong.

[Glork]

I should probably qualify that.

Don't do it ever unless you are

completely, 100% convinced

that your target is scum.

There is NO rule that says that Vigilantes must shoot every night. And free-firing Vigilantes can do more harm than good. I think this is a pretty decent example of this.

[Glork]

I thought so at the time, but there were also things she did that looked scummy, and the end of day 1 thing "I was the first on the wagon!!" thing wouldn't have been that hard for a scum to fake; I've done it.

I've done it, too, but that doesn't mean that everybody thinks like you do. It's just like when you said "SK acting like vig is bad play." You and I recognize these things, but a large number of players don't. You have to ask yourself, "Does it make sense for

Mae

as scum to fake championing a mislynch wagon?" No, it didn't. That's why she was protown.

I've never even read a game of Mae's, but based solely on her verbiage and posting style, I could meta that out of her. I expected it to be super easy mode for everybody else to conclude she was protown, but apparently not. That's why I'm frustrated.

[Glork]

I'm still embarrassed that we got off of

two

scum wagons to lynch a power role. Probably my worst moment since getting a claimed doc lynched.

Speak for yourself, you bum. I recall voting Zach and Neto exclusively in the last ~36 hours of the day.