Mini 954 ~ Mafia at the 11th Hour (Game Over!)


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Post Post #5 (isolation #0) » Fri Apr 09, 2010 1:51 am

Post by Jahudo »

Vote: Maemuki


Adeus scumbag!
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Post Post #14 (isolation #1) » Fri Apr 09, 2010 5:16 am

Post by Jahudo »

Both Pomegranate and TonyMontana have 11 letters in their name. They are definitely scumbuddies of the 11th hour.

unvote;
Vote: TonyMontana


bandwagon go!
Porkens wrote:Oh, cool, are we making up new languages? I want to play!
Portuguese, aber ich kann sprechen nicht.
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Post Post #29 (isolation #2) » Sat Apr 10, 2010 3:40 am

Post by Jahudo »

Nikanor, why are you focusing on VP, who posted twice on page one, when 3 people have not yet posted? Percy is posting elsewhere on the site.

Pomagranate, why didn't you join the TonyWagon?
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Post Post #41 (isolation #3) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 3:43 am

Post by Jahudo »

I like Pom's answer, at least she's being honest that its OMGUS. Maybe this is the game where I finally see a Townegranate and not another Scumegranate.

I'm not feeling the Nikanor wagon now. Its too random, though I want to hear why Nikanor voted VP over more lurky-lurkers.

Tony, Percy: did you know the game had started? Do you watch topics or just check sub-forums for active games when you're online?
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Post Post #43 (isolation #4) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 4:49 am

Post by Jahudo »

Not really. She was scum in the three finished games we've played together, but I was wrong about her the last time. And I don't really go by meta unless I think its something somebody would do in any alignment.
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Post Post #45 (isolation #5) » Sun Apr 11, 2010 5:43 am

Post by Jahudo »

StrangerCoug's recent large theme. You were mostly gone by the time I replaced in though.
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Post Post #58 (isolation #6) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 1:25 am

Post by Jahudo »

dramonic was responding to Seraphim, who called out Percy but not Tony. So dramonic's ignoring Tony is a result of Sera ignoring Tony. Or maybe not...
dramonic wrote:Because I dont know Tony and is interaction with games
I however doubt this type of lurkerish behaviour would come from percy, hence my supposition he just missed the start.
Would knowing Tony have mattered in this case? Seraphim called out Percy, so you answered for Percy. Why would you have tacked on a comment about Tony?
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Post Post #66 (isolation #7) » Mon Apr 12, 2010 10:20 am

Post by Jahudo »

dramonic wrote:For no reason.
Why am I being attacked for not calling out Tony?
I don't know. My point is that you didn't need to, but its odd that your defense isn't "I didn't need to call him out", but rather "I don't know Tony and his interaction with games".

That assumes you acknowledged Tony's absence and decided not to comment on it. I'm wondering where you would have commented on it, if it were something you would have commented.

Right now I'm just feeling out your thought process. I don't find this scummy behavior at the moment.
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Post Post #74 (isolation #8) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 1:46 am

Post by Jahudo »

@Seraphim: did you switch votes because Percy posted? Was your Percy vote, and now Tony vote, made because they were lurking? Do you think lurking is scummy?
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Post Post #92 (isolation #9) » Tue Apr 13, 2010 1:27 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Seraphim, did you notice Porkens had changed his vote before you posted a few minutes after him?

Porkens wasn't under pressure to switch his vote, and in fact had an opportunity to try and pressure dramonic onto the wagon, but chose to switch. So I don't see his voting as opportunistic.

@dramonic: is your vote on Nikanor serious?

@Pom: is your vote on DDD serious?
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Post Post #100 (isolation #10) » Wed Apr 14, 2010 5:51 am

Post by Jahudo »

I think Nikanor is making too big of an issue over Percy taking ~10 hours to make his second post. Percy didn't have to be prodded again, and he gave a reason that sounded reasonable. Besides, the pace and content-level of this game should not be daunting to scum. Nikanor, do your examples include games under similar circumstances to this?

I don't see how Seraphim came to the conclusion that Tony has a power that unlocks at L-1, or that Porkens would want the wagon to stop at L-1. Why was that the only theory about Porkens' vote?

----------------------
@Pomegranate:
Pomegranate wrote:But maybe this is just me being particular about things.
Particular about what?
----------------------
@dramonic:
dramonic wrote:I find it silly I'm gaining votes for that pair of comment. 'Twas just intended in good humour
Was it just about humor? Was post 80 responding to a specific sentence in Tony's post? Were you only speaking for yourself?

----------------------
d3x has stayed pretty active, but has made next to no content besides unassuming questions that try to get reads out of other people. Pair that with him not giving any reads on other players, and he looks like scum playing to the pace of the game rather than town trying to get the scumhunting started. He's my top suspect.

unvote;
Vote: d3x
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Post Post #113 (isolation #11) » Thu Apr 15, 2010 12:56 am

Post by Jahudo »

My Tony vote was random the whole time, so the deflation of the wagon made sense to me.
d3x wrote:
Jahudo wrote:Pair that with him not giving any reads on other players
If I'm asking questions in order to get reads, how exactly would I be expected to have the reads I'm looking for? This doesn't make much sense to me.
Your questions to Nik and Seraphim were fine, it was most of your questions to TonyMontana that I found questionable. You ask him how he feels about dramonic, and if anyone looks like scum on Tony's wagon, before you say how you feel about dramonic, or if you think anyone on Tony's wagon look scummy. This kind of questioning could allow you to hold back your own suspicions until you know what is the popular choice, rather than what is the choice you believe in.

But you are explaining your Nik suspicion now, so that's good. Do you really have examples of Nikanor needs prods as town?
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Post Post #118 (isolation #12) » Thu Apr 15, 2010 9:00 am

Post by Jahudo »

d3x wrote:Also of note in that 2nd link is the fact that this exact situation played out. There were multiple promises of posts and then days would slip by before we heard from him again. Had the Mod been in attendance, prods would've been sent.
Interesting. It looks like Nikanor is misleading the town here:
Nikanor wrote:What Percy did is exactly what I have a tendency toward doing as scum: posting "Oh, I'll catch up!" and then not actually catching up until I get prodded again. If you want, I could give about five or six examples where I do this as scum.
Make room on the awesome wagon!

unvote;
Vote: Nikanor
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Post Post #130 (isolation #13) » Fri Apr 16, 2010 2:36 am

Post by Jahudo »

What's a ghost power, Porkens?
Nikanor wrote:
Jahudo wrote:I think Nikanor is making too big of an issue over Percy taking ~10 hours to make his second post. Percy didn't have to be prodded again, and he gave a reason that sounded reasonable. Besides, the pace and content-level of this game should not be daunting to scum. Nikanor, do your examples include games under similar circumstances to this?
Ehh, no. At least I don't think so.
Actually, wait. This is a game that roughly matches the circumstances here, I believe. I ended up replacing out of that game, though.
What are you trying to show with that game? Both of those scum were posting on page 1. They didn't lurk through the random vote stage.
Nikanor wrote:I noticed that VP was posting elsewhere but not in this thread, so I pointed it out.
That's reasonable by itself. But it starts to look like your going on a general lurker hunt when you bring Percy into the discussion. I guess we could argue semantics over what "catching up ASAP" means, which is literally "as soon as possible", which for him seemed to be 10 hours. If Percy had said "catching up now", that would be more black-and-white. Did you see read into his wording like this, or was there something else that made him stand out from someone like Tony who hadn't posted at all by that point?
Nikanor wrote:
d3x wrote:Also of note in that 2nd link is the fact that this exact situation played out. There were multiple promises of posts and then days would slip by before we heard from him again. Had the Mod been in attendance, prods would've been sent.
Ehh, that game. I tried to forget about that. Such bad memories. That is by far my worst performance as a town role to this date. I won't deny lurking in that game, but that's because I was too stupid and too busy to scumhunt like a normal person.
Anyway, the point is not that I do that exclusively as scum. The point is that I do that as scum five times more often than I do as town.
Even in the random vote stage?
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Post Post #155 (isolation #14) » Sat Apr 17, 2010 7:00 am

Post by Jahudo »

Black mushroom looks more like a steering wheel. And that guy is driving with it.
-------------------

@Pomegranite: Was there something else to this sentence you wrote?
Pom wrote:And the smiley makes me feel that he's trying to lighten the mood, so people will take his previous post
How will people take his post?

Pomegranite, it seems like you initially had a problem with dramonic having no reason to call Tony town because that goes against how you scumhunt and you think he was trying to push the wagon by saying the lack of a town read meant he should be wagoned. Is that about right?

And when you voted dramonic, did you have any problem with his post saying there was no reason to call Tony scum? If you did, I can't pick it out.

------------------
The only other wagon that interests me right now is Tony. I see what DDD now sees in it.
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Post Post #170 (isolation #15) » Sun Apr 18, 2010 11:13 am

Post by Jahudo »

It does look hypocritical that Seraphim started the game by prodding lurkers, and now he is a lurker. I don't think its a good scum tell in this situation, however I also don't see any town behavior from him at this point.

I agree with Pom's vote :P
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Post Post #182 (isolation #16) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 12:53 am

Post by Jahudo »

I had said that Seraphim doesn't look like an intentional lurker-scum because its only an 8-page game, and it doesn't make sense as a strategy if you're going to stick out more and not even going to have to post much to be considered "active".

But I also see that Seraphim has posted elsewhere on the site on Saturday, so maybe he is avoiding his catch-up post.

And I can see where scum would lurk as much as they could get away with it, because we're on an activity-based deadline.

So Seraphim has been very anti-town, and we do need to hear more from him.

Side note: I feel that Tony has been lurking and acting scummy when he's actually posted, so I'd vote him before Seraphim. And Nik wagon is still good.
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Post Post #185 (isolation #17) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 3:59 am

Post by Jahudo »

Does anyone have a town read on Nikanor?
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Post Post #190 (isolation #18) » Mon Apr 19, 2010 10:59 am

Post by Jahudo »

Hey Nikanor: Did you get an ability by going to L-1?
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Post Post #212 (isolation #19) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 3:51 am

Post by Jahudo »

Nikanor is a lurker too, its not just Sera and Tony. I think Nik has the fewest posts among them. The Tony wagon is cool and all, but I want to see what he says in his catch-up post before I think about switching wagons.
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Post Post #214 (isolation #20) » Tue Apr 20, 2010 6:24 am

Post by Jahudo »

I don't see dramonic's "we have no reason to think your town/scum" as wishy-washy, so that part of the case I don't understand. Tony is as good a lynch as Nikanor at this point, but I want to see if he'll continue to show this particular scumtell in his catch-up post before I think of switching wagons. I'm still waiting on Nikanor to answer my questions, which should also help my read on him.
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Post Post #230 (isolation #21) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 1:56 am

Post by Jahudo »

Tony's replacing out doesn't look tactical, but I'm still not sure if his activity and content levels were. I still like the case on him because he was focused on defending against DDD over weak reasons instead of commenting and scumhunting in the thread in general. It looked like Tony was feeding off DDD's attacks to ignore the rest of the thread.

I'm interested to see who Vi pulls out of her bag of replacements next.

--------------------

I don't see the case on VP yet, but I'm interested to see how VP responds and if Nik elaborates. We've still got time to get a competing wagon going, but I'm not sure if this is it. And I do see reasoning from VP, though not in his vote post obviously.
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Post Post #235 (isolation #22) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 5:22 am

Post by Jahudo »

Percy wrote:You don't see the case on VP (and in fact imply you disagree), but you're commenting on the viability of a wagon?
Not the viability of his specific wagon to get a lynch, but rather the positives of having any competing wagon (not just 1 vote, like most have competing wagons have been) today is good for analysis later on. And if there was a competing wagon on VP, I wouldn't be on it now.
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Post Post #257 (isolation #23) » Wed Apr 21, 2010 3:18 pm

Post by Jahudo »

semioldguy wrote:@Jahudo
What are your thoughts of Porkens as a potential competing wagon?
Porkens is playing like he did in Mafia Reverberation, and he was town there. So I don't think his "willingness to get a lynch quickly on just about anybody day 1" is something he'd only do as scum. And that seems to be the basis of his wagon today.

I just started reading The Fountainhead. I'll see if there's anything to pull from that game's scumteam of Porkens-DDD-d3x.
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Post Post #275 (isolation #24) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 1:28 am

Post by Jahudo »

Nikanor lynch pls.
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Post Post #282 (isolation #25) » Thu Apr 22, 2010 10:53 am

Post by Jahudo »

VP Baltar wrote:Hey hudo, you missed my question earlier:
VP wrote:Jahudo, if you want a counter wagon why are you so tentatively trying to feel one out instead of just getting one going?
Also, what changed on Page 10/11 that you don't care about about a counter wagon anymore?
I had been thinking about Tony and Sera, but then they got replaced.

With Tony, I thought he was focusing on defense from DDD instead of trying to find scum and comment in the rest of the game. It seemed like he was taking advantage of having a narrow focus so he wouldn't have to give stances on the rest of the game. But we don't know if he would have continued to do that or not, so its still only a small suspicion currently and not enough to make me want to wagon semioldguy without having something on him too.

Sera was being lurkalicious, but he's like that in other games so it looks like real life issues.
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Post Post #296 (isolation #26) » Mon Apr 26, 2010 2:34 am

Post by Jahudo »

Nikanor was sitting on his Seraphim vote for a while. The Sera wagon looked like it could have been viable, and it was an easy vote so I think this was the main mislynch he was going for. His comment on the DDD-Tony interaction is interesting, calling it possible "distancing". His post 227 looks like he is planning on getting lynched and just wants to throw out a bunch of mixed signals. Its hard to read anything from that post.

As for the people on his wagon...

d3x - I don't think his play was bussing. His case was in early and all day. Town.
------------------------------
dramonic - It looks like his random vote Nik went serious around post 67. His null read on Tony only looks scummy if Tony is also scum. If he's scum, I don't see where he was trying to get a mislynch anywhere. Town.
------------------------------
Pomegranate - Her vote took Nik to L-1, so maybe its bussing. Its fine she hopped with old reasons, because the case had already been made, but there's a question to how she viewed the wagon as it was building. Maybe scum.

@Pom: What was your reaction when you first read dramonic and d3x's case on Nikanor? What changed after your last post before coming back and voting Nik?
------------------------------
Porkens - Impossible to read. I think he'd say the exact same things yesterday as either alignment. His day 2 should be easier to read, if his goal was just to get past day 1 without the thread getting too mucked up. Neutral based on Nik, gut town overall.
------------------------------
VP Baltar - He gave the Nik wagon plenty of momentum, but post 204 moves that momentum away from the wagon and leaves a doubt in the Nik wagon for the fact that dramonic is on it. And post 192 looks like VP has an out from the Nik wagon, saying Nik could stop being a lurker and maybe look better. And I don't know what to make of Nik's late push on VP, because on the face of it Nik was probably already a goner and was thinking of either distancing or setting up WIFOM so we'd think he was distancing. Maybe scum.
------------------------------
And the people off his wagon...

Cobalt (Seraphim) - Seraphim ignored Nikanor, but Nik looked like he was trying to lynch Sera. Cobalt didn't give any feeling that he had read the thread in his two posts, so its hard to say if he was aware of the Nik wagon or not. Leaning Town.
------------------------------
Percy - He kept Nikanor as his #2 suspect for what seemed like most of the day, which actually sounds like a good balance of distancing and trying to save a buddy with a mislynch. Or he could have found Porkens slightly scummier than Nik. Not sure here yet.
------------------------------
semioldguy (Tony) - Tony completely ignored Nikanor and his wagon, even though it was going when he was posting. Yesterday I though Tony was ignoring most of the game by going defensive against DDD. That would allow him to avoid commenting on the Nik wagon and having to give a read early, that if scum he might want to hide until later. Semioldguy didn't explain why he didn't like the Nik wagon, which seems worse than if he didn't like it but explained why. However the only scum motivation I can think of is trying to get a mislynch. Maybe scum.
------------------------------
Debonair Danny DiPietro - He was against the Nik wagon for as long as he mentioned him, but that could mean he thought Nik was town. Based on his Tony case though, he's Leaning Town.
------------------------------

My top suspects are 1) Semi, little gap to 2) VP then a medium sized gap to 3) Pom, then a big gap to 4) Percy and then its a huge gap to everyone else.

Vote: semioldguy
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Post Post #308 (isolation #27) » Mon Apr 26, 2010 2:33 pm

Post by Jahudo »

dramonic wrote:I'm good for a SOG wagon.
Semioldguy
Did you mean to vote semioldguy here?
Pom wrote:First of all, I like some of the points you brought against him later. Also, a lot of Nikanor's reactions to the case seemed scummy to me.
Yeah that was how you explained it yesterday. I think I can follow your thought process, it looked worse to me than it is. But anyway, I'm not suspicious of you.
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Post Post #318 (isolation #28) » Tue Apr 27, 2010 7:42 am

Post by Jahudo »

Ah, I thought that's what it might be about. Yesterday I explained why I wanted a competing wagon:
Jahudo wrote:the positives of having any competing wagon (not just 1 vote, like most have competing wagons have been) today is good for analysis later on. And if there was a competing wagon on VP, I wouldn't be on it now.
I had no intention of voting VP, and I wasn't trying to start a wagon by calling out Player X, because I wasn't arguing for a specific alternative. All you can say is that I was waiting for an opportunity to happen, and you have to argue that is something I would logically do as scum that late in the day when I was previously digging myself further into the Nikanor wagon by questioning him and helping others vote him.

Now let me counter your case by showing you how those "tells" apply better to your game:

1. Trying to encourage other wagons without commiting himself is really scummy. You put the ownership of your Tony vote on DDD here.
VP Baltar wrote:I think history has shown that DDD knows better than me early game and I don'tknow how comfortable I am being on a dramonic supported wagon at this point. Let's get some votes over here people.
You also place your dramonic suspicion over Nikanor indirectly. If you thought Nikanor was scummier, dramonic's involvement on his wagon shouldn't make you switch votes unless it was to dramonic. But you vote Tony. I don't understand that logic.

2. Explain why you were bailing Nikanor out here:
VP Baltar wrote:Nik isn't exactly present either. Perhaps if he was here posting I'd feel better about him, but lurking (after calling lurking a scumtell) is lynch worthy atm.
Sounds like if Nik posted more, you'd move on to dramonic or a lurker.

unvote;
Vote: VP Baltar
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Post Post #334 (isolation #29) » Wed Apr 28, 2010 2:23 am

Post by Jahudo »

@semioldguy: I had already said this.
Jahudo wrote:My top suspects are 1) Semi, little gap to 2) VP then a medium sized gap to 3) Pom, then a big gap to 4) Percy and then its a huge gap to everyone else.
What changed was that VPB tried to use scumtells he is guilty of, which makes me think he's not speaking honestly.

I agree with him, however, that we don't need to speedwagon you with little discussion.

-------------------------

VPB's response doesn't change my opinion of him.
VP Baltar wrote:You being coy about distracting from the Nik lynch a day or so before the deadline is quite obvious to me even if you think you were being careful about it.
Where was it obvious? The part where you asked me why the Nik wagon was superior to dramonic, and I replied by saying dramonic looked town? (214) Or the part where I said I wouldn't switch to Tony unless he posted more things that were scummy? (also 214) Or the part where I said I didn't see the case on VP Baltar and wasn't going to vote for him based on it? (230)

It's true that I might've switched to a Tony wagon, provided he not replace out and instead kept posting scummy stuff. Same with Seraphim. I was feeling good about a Nik lynch but that doesn't mean we couldn't have lynched another scum in that time frame. Look at Mafia Reverberation's day 1 deadline. Alot of movement in the final few hours and we managed to lynch a scum (Rhinox) while letting another slip out of L-1 (Orbots).
VP Baltar wrote:Except the part where I had voted Tony seriously waaaay earlier in the day. It's not like that suspicion came out of nowhere.
That's true, but you also decreased your interest the Tony wagon by saying dramonic might have been trying to opportunistically hop on it. After you unvoted, you kept asking Tony to contribute more (160, 163, 188) and vote him 3 days before deadline when in that timeframe Tony had said nothing new. You were voting because of DDD, and you were asking others to join your wagon.
VP Baltar wrote:Meanwhile, you spent a lot of the day yesterday talking about Seraphim and Tony but never switched your vote once. Let's talk about ownership there if you really want.
And you're point being? I said I wasn't going to vote Seraphim or Tony unless they did something to look scummier than Nikanor.
VP Baltar wrote:I don't understand your logic, actually. I never said that I thought dram was scummier, just that his play was giving me second thoughts of the wagon on Day 1. His vote had been on that same wagon since the RVS, which I questioned him over. So, I fail to see how in your mind that means that he is where I should have been voting.
It's fine if dramonic gave you a doubt, but it looked more like you were unvoting in part because of your suspicion on him. And I would think a Nikanor suspicion outweighs a dramonic suspicion from your perspective.

What was every and all reasons for you unvoting Nikanor and voting Tony?
VP Baltar wrote:Nice rhetoric there scumbag.
Huh?
VP Baltar wrote:First, you win the award for most out of context quote ever. For those not looking back for this, I was actually explaining to DDD why I wasn't leaving the Nikanor wagon.
I win an award? Cue victory fanfare!
VP Baltar wrote:So, as you can see I was clearly explaining to DDD why my vote was just fine right where it was on Nik.
True, but you also let on that your vote was mostly, if not entirely, based on his activity level. If he posted more, you WOULD feel better. Not might, would. That's a short step to orchestrating a lurker lynch of dramonic, who you were painting as questionable for a while.
VP Baltar wrote:Second, I was partially baiting Nik to see if he would post shortly after that as a way to get "town cred" from me. After lurking so much, if he had posted within a few hours of that post I would have strongly felt him scum even more than I already did. There's more than one way to skin a cat.
Sorta like a gambit?

I think we might be deadlocked on a couple of points: me not believing you would have still called Nik scum if he posted more, and you not believing I wouldn't have helped push an alternative wagon if one had started to peak out.
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Post Post #347 (isolation #30) » Thu Apr 29, 2010 3:37 am

Post by Jahudo »

Check out these two posts from Nikanor. The first happened early in the day, and the second was one of his final posts.
Nikanor wrote:DDD is pushing the Tony wagon pretty hard, but I don't see any reason for why he's doing it. Possible distancing?
Nikanor wrote:I don't get why Tony thinks that DDD is scum and vice-versa. DDD, could you summarize the reasons for why Tony is scum?
Part of me thinks he was fence-sitting to see if one of them became a viable lynch. In that instance both could be town.

But if he wanted to plant a seed that they were both scum distancing from each other, it might make more sense for one of them to actually be scum. That way if Nik's buddy was the one getting wagoned, he had a platform to bus. And if the townie was the first one lynched, the point of distancing was no longer valid.

I think this is another indication that semioldguy (Tony) could be scum, because otherwise I don't see the point of distancing speculation that early.
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Post Post #349 (isolation #31) » Thu Apr 29, 2010 6:03 am

Post by Jahudo »

VP Baltar wrote:Let's look at what you said about Tony directly before that:
Jahudo wrote:Side note: I feel that Tony has been lurking and acting scummy when he's actually posted, so I'd vote him before Seraphim. And Nik wagon is still good.
Which I read as you slowly creeping your way toward the Tony wagon. Then when you add your bit about wanting to see Tony post before you think about switching I saw a continuation of that hesitency. With us moving toward deadline at that point and you confessing that multiple bandwagons is a good thing, I just fail to see how you as town would have so much hesitency.
That's not being hesitant. I was very specific on why I wasn't voting Tony, and what it would take for me to switch wagons. When Tony got replaced, there was 0% chance I'd vote his replacement based on Tony actions, because that condition never got fulfilled.

VP Baltar wrote:Same with your Post 230 when you say:
Jahudo wrote:
I don't see the case on VP yet
, but I'm interested to see how VP responds and if Nik elaborates.
First, I have no idea what you saw in Nik's case that even made you interested because it was complete crap. Second, the bolded implies that you could be swayed that way (presumably based on my response) just over a day from deadline. You were also touching on Seraphim all day without serious action (voting). You were looking for deadline shennanigans to start up if you ask me.
I didn't see anything in Nik's case, hence me saying I don't see the case on VP. I just wanted Nik to talk more and hopefully give up more reads under the enhanced pressure of a deadline where he was likely to be lynched. There was little he could have said to make me vote you, but we still needed more opinions from him so we could talk about it day 2.
VP Baltar wrote:
Objection!
*cue Vi-cool Ace Attorney graphics*

Mafia Reverberation is not relatable in anyway to the circumstances in this game because the lynching threshold was only four votes and there were multiple double voters in play and we could lynch multiple people in a day. I don't see how you are even drawing a comparison between that and a seven vote straight lynch.
First off, that's my line. Secondly, I was speaking generally in that you can have 2 suspects with enough support to be lynched, and both can be scum. Nik was a good #1 suspect, but I still think my #2 or #3 suspects from day 1 can still flip scum.

If you want to make the argument that I was trying to lynch Tony-town or Sera-town, that means you think they're town right?

VP Baltar wrote:Don't see how these are related again. I can actually be suspicious of multiple people at the same time, even if they are attacking each other.
it's all good if dramonic wasn't the only reason you unvoted Nik for Tony. And I can believe you were using other reasons.
VP Baltar wrote:The point was to prod Tony toward contributing SOMETHING. I would argue that DDD and I voting for him was what actually got him to replace out, which actually made me think him more town. That was my reason for voting, not simply DDD. Obviously, I can't make a statement like that in thread or the vote becomes meaningless. This is, of course, is best view opposite of your talk without voting, which did nothing.
I guess I can understand you not revealing that feeling, but how do you know/think DDD felt that way too? Tony gave a reason for being too busy, so do you think he was lying to protect his player slot from suspicion?
VP Baltar wrote:Well, they were all doing the same thing at that point, which was nothing. The point is that you were being a wimp about it and wouldn't move your vote. It just reads as too safe to me.
Let the mod deal with prods and replacements placing. A player that isn't around to see your vote really isn't under pressure from the vote, unless you can prove a non-poster has seen your vote. Talk about an easy vote to place.
VP Baltar wrote:The vibe I kept getting yesterday was that if enough momentum moved away from Nik you'd be there in a flash, but you didn't want the responsibility of the one starting it, which of course doesn't look so great to me in light of the flip.
Late yesterday I disagreed with the dramonic wagon, and I was asked how I felt about the Porkens wagon as a competing wagon, and I stuck to my position that he wasn't acting scummy. I also said I wasn't joining the VP wagon. There's three competing wagons I was against.
VP Baltar wrote:Alright, I'm giving one more day to our lurkers to come in here and give their reads/make a case why they shouldn't be lynched. If I still get nothing, then I'm coming back to Nik because that's the most viable wagon right now. I'm so annoyed at this game right now it's not even funny.
This was a funny post. "Hey lurkers! If you don't want me to vote you, keep on lurking!"
VP Baltar wrote:No. Keep reaching though. All people have to do is look at the quotes in context to see the meaning. It's quite clear my Nik vote wasn't moving to dram.
So you'd keep your vote on something you felt better about? Or did you mean "feel better [about lynching]"?
VP Baltar wrote:There are times when town needs to play things close to their chest for the greater good.
I agree. Maybe we were both doing this yesterday.
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Post Post #358 (isolation #32) » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:24 am

Post by Jahudo »

@semioldguy: Are you waiting for Percy before you explain your case on him? Whether you were or weren't I think you should explain your vote now.
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Post Post #360 (isolation #33) » Fri Apr 30, 2010 1:50 am

Post by Jahudo »

In saying that I thought a competing wagon was good for analysis, I was aware that it might seem like I was looking for a competing wagon to join without much reasoning. It seemed like an okay thing to keep ambiguous since part of the intention was seeing who didn't like the Nikanor wagon enough to join another "Viable lynch" without much reasoning.

So I'm not surprised you think I was looking for that alternative myself (and actually I'm surprised more people aren't questioning me over it), but I'm trying to explain why I did it as a townie and why you look scum to me for different reasons than your opinion on me.

Let me be clear that I was willing to switch my vote, but only under the appearance of a case with reasoning as good or better than the Nikanor wagon, or if Sera or Tony had not replaced out and continued to look bad. So part of me was talking about a competing wagon with the thought that I might join it. Just not on a whim.

Also, I can see how a VP-SOG scumteam does not seem likely. I might move back to the SOG wagon today, but apart from you two I don't have any suspects. Some of our low-talkers already look town from their lack of a connection to Nikanor, while others are just playing to their playstyle. But I am suddenly wondering...

@everybody else: Are Jahudo-VP Baltar wall cases hurting your ability to join the discussion? Or no affect?
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Post Post #367 (isolation #34) » Fri Apr 30, 2010 9:05 am

Post by Jahudo »

semioldguy wrote:Relation to Nikanor and his wagon.
Can you elaborate?
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Post Post #370 (isolation #35) » Fri Apr 30, 2010 12:21 pm

Post by Jahudo »

semioldguy wrote:@Jahudo
You can't look for yourself?
In my post 296 I couldn't decide if his Porkens focus was genuine or forced to take attention away from the Nikanor wagon. He's really my only null read so I want to see you make the case for scum-motivation over town-motivation.

And basically I didn't see his Porkens case because I've argued that Porkens' desire to lynch whoever is probably something he'd say as town. Percy might disagree with that meta, or just not be aware of it and not trust it.
semioldguy wrote:I can wipe the vote clean. At such a time that I do this, I will get to choose one person in the game and his vote will be the only vote to count for the day, essentially allowing that player to choose who the lynch is on his own.
Given Mafia Reverberation, I think Vi likes roles that can go to either alignment. So are you going to use this power? And if so, is there anyone not willing to lynch you. Maybe Cobalt, but he's mostly a wild card.
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Post Post #377 (isolation #36) » Sun May 02, 2010 12:27 am

Post by Jahudo »

If SOG is scum, we'd want him to use the power to prove that someone isn't his partner. But as scum he might be lying about that part of the role, so the test might not mean anything unless we can also see a townie get the same power with that same condition (you can't pass it on to a partner) at L-1.

If SOG is town, there's a chance whoever he selects will keep him alive and lynch scum. That'll put us in a better situation as a team, but maybe not prevent his lynch the next day unless he doesn't look like a likely buddy through connections. Still I think we'd be in a good enough situation with this scenario for a SOG-town to accept it.

But If they lynch town other than him, we might go lynch him the following day anyway and we'd be in a bad enough situation that the power was not worth using.
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Post Post #382 (isolation #37) » Sun May 02, 2010 9:28 am

Post by Jahudo »

Percy, what do you think about SOG's play? Is there anything he's said/done that looks scummy?
Percy wrote:VPB vs. Jahudo:
I think Jahudo taking the quote about lurker-voting completely out of context is what sticks out for me the most. Jahudo continues to insist that it means what he wanted it to mean, but it is quite clear to me from the context of the quote that he liked his vote on Nik,
especially
since Nik had called lurking a scumtell and then proceeded to lurk. The only reason lurking was being discussed was due to DDD's appeal to VP Baltar to vote dramonic for lurking.
I understand that, but I think it was deliberate in telling how Nikanor could get off VP's radar or stay on fairly easily.
Percy wrote:...that feel like scumlanguage; an attempt to identify with the townie you're attacking,
Or I was realizing a similarity in what we were both trying to accomplish.
Percy wrote:and excusing people for not reading what you and VP Baltar have written is the scum spin, and it feels compelling to me.
Scum spin, what do you mean? I would only be excusing people if they could describe why the walls were hurting their ability to contribute, but that's moot now that the discussion is on SOG and the approaching deadline.
Percy wrote:
Jahudo 370 wrote:And basically I didn't see his Porkens case because I've argued that Porkens' desire to lynch whoever is probably something he'd say as town. Percy might disagree with that meta, or just not be aware of it and not trust it.
I am not aware of Porkens' meta. So Jahudo is saying that Porkens is playing to his town meta, but VP Baltar is saying he is explicitly not:
VP Baltar 361 wrote:@ Porkens - You've really been a bit of a non-entity this game, which is not what I'm really used to from you. Normally I see you as a leader, even if that leadership is chaotic at times. Are you not feeling motivated to play this game?
...so I have no idea who to believe, and I don't feel like doing the research right now (but I will tomorrow). At the moment, my opinion of Porkens is largely unchanged.
I don't think those meta tells are contradictory. One describes his desire for a short day 1, not mucked in repetitive conversation, while the other seems to talk about his ability to pro-actively scumhunt.

And I wouldn't say that first part is exclusive to Porkens-town, I've just seen him act this way as town making it a possibly unreliable tell. Here's my example: Mafia Reverberation.
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Post Post #393 (isolation #38) » Mon May 03, 2010 12:12 am

Post by Jahudo »

There shouldn't be any 3rd parties, because of this rule:
Mod Post wrote:1. Like an Open Setup Except Not. This game includes nine (9) members of the Town and three (3) members of the Plague. You will be warned if you are in LyLo (Lynch Correctly or Lose) or MyLo (Mislynch and Lose).
@SOG: are you going to explain your Percy case or not? If no, why not?

I think Cobalt is town based on how Nikanor tried to wagon Seraphim, so he's not a concern for me.
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Post Post #415 (isolation #39) » Tue May 04, 2010 1:45 am

Post by Jahudo »

VP Baltar wrote:I'm not sure how Jahudo is comparing his performance in Reverb to here, but oh well.
The link I provided went to a specific post: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 85#2102485
Porkens in Mafia Reverberation wrote:I'd like to see the day end with 3-4 lynches, some popular, some not. I really don't care who those lynches are. There, I said it.
We can say the 3-4 lynches part doesn't matter because its different circumstances, but not caring who gets lynched has that same indifference-to-day-1 vibe I say from him here. It might not mean he's town, but I don't think its tells us why he would be scum.

I do want to look at Nik and Seraphim connections again, to see if that vote on Sera could have been distancing given the other building wagons. I'll do that when the server isn't so slow.
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Post Post #420 (isolation #40) » Tue May 04, 2010 5:11 am

Post by Jahudo »

VP Baltar wrote:Um, is there a reason Jahudo's name is still black?
Yes, it has to do with my last-shot power. And I guess anyone who would have gotten a power at L-1 have gotten theirs too.
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Post Post #427 (isolation #41) » Tue May 04, 2010 5:58 am

Post by Jahudo »

My ability is passive, so it just went into effect when I got it. SOG's kingmaker ability basically had no effect on me, so I kept my vote.

And since two votes is a majority now, we'll need to agree on the lynch.

LET THE TRIAL BEGIN!!!


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Post Post #434 (isolation #42) » Tue May 04, 2010 1:39 pm

Post by Jahudo »

I think Vi edited the vote count in response to a clarification PM I sent after receiving my innate ability. I was wondering if it explained my name was in black, if I could vote and if Percy could vote me. Yes to all three, which meant the vote count was incorrect because a majority of 2 votes is 2, not 1, and we went from L-1 to L-2.

DDD: Do we have to vote in order for the lynch to pass, or can you do it all on your own?
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Post Post #436 (isolation #43) » Tue May 04, 2010 2:00 pm

Post by Jahudo »

I'll ask. I only assumed it activated because I was at L-1 because I noticed the L-1 wording in the vote count. I also thought the purple text had to do with Percy's ability, like Vi didn't want to confirm everything SOG said was true, so the details of being a king were still unknown.
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Post Post #442 (isolation #44) » Tue May 04, 2010 3:30 pm

Post by Jahudo »

This is the only thing Nikanor said about Porkens:
Porkens just seems to be pushing whatever wagon is biggest. His play strikes me as something I'd see from a hidden Tarhalindur Survivor in this setup. I have no real read on Porkens.
It happened late in the day, and seemed untimely if he was hoping for a Porkens mislynch because in that post he voted VP Baltar (Nik was L-2, Porkens was L-5, VP had no votes).

Seraphim started the Porkens wagon on page 4, which was also when Nikanor voted Seraphim in part because of a lack of confidence in his Porkens vote. It seems like he was going for the easier target at that moment, but later in the day he also suspects Porkens for relatively the same reason Seraphim did.

And while this was going on, the Tony wagon and dramonic wagon had most of the attention so I don't think Nikanor would go out of his way to create a case on Seraphim unless he was trying to lynch him. I think Porkens had only gone so far as to defend himself from Seraphim, and not go on the offense against Seraphim.

Coming back around to Porkens, I don't know why Nikanor wouldn't have been more in favor of a Porkens lynch early, since Percy was voicing support for it early. It seems like it would have been an easy move for him.

At least with the Tony wagon, he hinted at Tony being scum while the wagon had momentum. With Porkens, he seemed to have recognized the case early (through Sera at least), but he didn't comment on it until too late.
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Post Post #443 (isolation #45) » Tue May 04, 2010 3:40 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Percy wrote:When exactly did you get your power? Are you saying your innate ability just coincidentally activated when I was made king?
9:19 am. Vi didn't say why I got my ability, but I think the reasoning is actually the power itself.

To clarify, I got a passive ability that makes the desperation ability have no effect on me. So my ability was most likely activated by the cause, rather than the effect, of the kingmaker. It was SOG's transfer, not the circumstances of the lynch threshold being decreased, that triggered my power.

Why is my power more likely to be scum given, and not a townie power?
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Post Post #452 (isolation #46) » Wed May 05, 2010 3:05 am

Post by Jahudo »

I can look at the Nikanor interactions a few ways, so I'll give the conclusions I'm leaning towards at the moment but it would be helpful to hear what everybody thinks about them now.
Percy wrote:Are your conclusions from 442 that Porkens is more likely scum, and Seraphim/Cobalt less likely scum, given Nikanor interaction? I can't see a solid conclusion in there, but that's what I took from it at least.
Since some of that was page 4 events, its not a solid tell. I can imagine scum not buckling down until later on, since they'd know early bandwagons aren't filled with confidence. They might wait until later on to find a good wagon. So I can see how he might have been distancing from Seraphim, and not worried about Tony/dramonic/Porkens being the Day 1 wagon to ride into a lynch. He might figure wagons would evolve, and if he could control the Seraphim case early he could see that it doesn't become too large. Yeah I can see that possibility.

Plus Cobalt is just lurking like I've heard he does more often as scum than town. Does anyone know if this is accurate? I've seen him be active as scum, but only after he got under alot of pressure. He might be trying to coast.

-----------------

With Nikanor calling Porkens a possible 3rd party member, I think he was trying to keep suspicion on his even in the event Nik got lynched. That doesn't seem like useful distancing. Porkens does not seem like a good lynch today.
Percy wrote:which obviously would be a different ability from your 11th hour power, as this ability would be useless to someone at L-1 under "normal" circumstances.
I'm pretty sure its my 11th hour ability because I wasn't told about it until it came about. That's how the power is described in the OP.

I don't think its useless, but how powerful do you expect these powers to be? SOG's hasn't saved him yet. I don't think they're mean to be scumfinding powers like cop, but rather self-preservation powers.
Percy wrote:
@Jahudo
: What do you think of the case against SOG?
I still like both the case against Tony and SOG.

SOG or Cobalt seems like a good lynch today.
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Post Post #465 (isolation #47) » Thu May 06, 2010 1:57 am

Post by Jahudo »

dramonic: what is it about VP?
Percy wrote:
Jahudo 452 wrote:I'm pretty sure its my 11th hour ability because I wasn't told about it until it came about. That's how the power is described in the OP.
You were never at L-1, as far as I've been able to make out. Also, I don't buy that your 11th hour power is immunity from someone else's 11th hour power.
Whether I was at L-1 or not shouldn't really matter, because no where does it say everyone has to get their power at L-1. And nowhere did mine talk about L-1...that was something I was speculating from the start. It makes more sense to have been triggered by desperation abilities in general, and a product of SOG's desperation is putting everyone 1 vote from a lynch.

@Mod: Did Cobalt pick up his prod?

He posted after he was prodded, right? ~Vi
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Post Post #468 (isolation #48) » Thu May 06, 2010 12:02 pm

Post by Jahudo »

If you look at Seraphim's ISO, he spends 3 posts prodding lurkers, which he thinks is a null-tell. If he was looking for something to do, as he claimed, I don't know why he would do something he didn't believe would amount to scumtells. This is just a minor concern itself, but then he goes on and becomes a lurker.

And I'm even more willing to believe Sera was Nikanor's buddy because other people (Percy, d3x) disliked the case. It doesn't look like Nik trying to become suspicious, but at least get people to see there isn't a good case for Sera at a time when plenty of wagons were forming. It would achieve distancing and protecting a buddy at the same time.

Anyone interpret it the same way? another way?
Jahudo wrote:
@Mod: Did Cobalt pick up his prod?

He posted after he was prodded, right? ~Vi
Oops. Well, in a few hours I'll request another prod :?
dramonic wrote:last time I played with you you claimed scum by yourself anyways
You were in TTGL?
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Post Post #470 (isolation #49) » Thu May 06, 2010 2:08 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Oh yeah. I was 3rd party claiming mafia there. No need to worry about a crazy gambit from me this game, since its semi-open.
Man, I claim scum alot.

We can still discuss the lynch, but I want to see that my vote counts. Cobalt's my top pick today.

Vote: Cobalt
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Post Post #474 (isolation #50) » Thu May 06, 2010 3:33 pm

Post by Jahudo »

@Mod: Can you prod Cobalt (again)?

Yes. ~Vi


Cobalt: did you get an ability?
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Post Post #479 (isolation #51) » Fri May 07, 2010 8:52 am

Post by Jahudo »

Ok, what about my case don't you like SOG? Who would you rather see lynched?
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Post Post #493 (isolation #52) » Fri May 07, 2010 3:01 pm

Post by Jahudo »

I don't mind a SOG lynch, but I prefer Cobalt and some people I think are town seem to prefer him too. The reason I didn't talk about him more was that the wagon was well in hand and I was speaking my mind about VPB. I explained why I thought SOG was scum, and I didn't have anything else to ask him.

Cobalt and Porkens reads went hand in hand, and I flipped them after mulling over how Nikanor might have been playing yesterday. I like my basis of thinking now more than I did previously.

@Percy: What about my Cobalt case doesn't add up? Besides my participation, what is wrong with the tell?
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Post Post #497 (isolation #53) » Sat May 08, 2010 12:16 am

Post by Jahudo »

Percy wrote:
Jahudo 493 wrote:I don't mind a SOG lynch, but I prefer Cobalt and some people I think are town seem to prefer him too.
Does this include VP Baltar?
I have doubts, and it seems most of the group does as well so he's been downgraded until further notice.
Percy wrote:What tell? The fact that he's lurking, and apparently that's something he does as scum? Is that the tell? Or are you talking about how Nik's attack on Seraphim is somehow a bussing move?
Nik's attack on Seraphim, but I would say it was distancing not bussing.

Also my doubts about Porkens include his "willingness to lynch anyone day 1" is not an alignment tell. And SOG was against Nik at a time it made more sense for him to bus. So why are they better lynches?
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Post Post #500 (isolation #54) » Sat May 08, 2010 5:18 am

Post by Jahudo »

Percy wrote:Not an alignment tell ≠ towntell. How could a nulltell give you doubts? What do you think about the rest of his play?
I haven't been able to read him, so I have a nulltell and a neutral read on him without looking at Nik. And I don't think you have made a case for him outside what I call a nulltell.
Jahudo 497 wrote:Again you dismiss the case based on WIFOM. This verges on "2scum4scum".
I'm not sure what that second part means, but maybe that's accurate. Tony looked scummy, and there are clear doubts about why SOG didn't elaborate on the Nik wagon beyond a simple "I'm not feeling it".

unvote;
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Post Post #501 (isolation #55) » Sat May 08, 2010 5:19 am

Post by Jahudo »

Quote tag fail on my part...

hammer please.
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Post Post #505 (isolation #56) » Sat May 08, 2010 12:56 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Deadline is probably in 3 hours. I'm around to talk.

SOG, do you have anything else to say? Why did you pick Percy again?
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Post Post #508 (isolation #57) » Sat May 08, 2010 1:38 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Hopefully Cobalt will be replaced tonight.

DDD: Is everything good?
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Post Post #517 (isolation #58) » Tue May 11, 2010 4:47 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Hero's catchup post looks kinda like a stream of consciousness from day 1 on. Though it is odd he missed the DDD flip.

Porkens day 2 play was mostly about getting SOG lynched until he didn't have a say in it any longer and wanted Cobalt lynched. I don't understand how Porkens, and maybe Pom too, thought SOG's talking about his power was town. Maybe its a weird opinion because I can't see it the same way, or maybe it was fake.

I'm not on VPB's case. And d3x, dramonic and Pom still look cool for their involvement in lynching Nikanor. I think its likeliest that 2 of {Percy, Hero and Porkens} are scum, and my gut right now says Percy is town. So PoE, Hero and Porkens. But I'll make a case before I join the Awesome 3.0 Wagon on Porkens :P
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Post Post #521 (isolation #59) » Wed May 12, 2010 1:16 am

Post by Jahudo »

I hope dramonic and Pom are more involved today.
d3x wrote:@Jah-
Hero's catchup post looks kinda like a stream of consciousness from day 1 on.
What are you inferring with this? Do you think it's scummy? Also, you don't get to declare AwesomeWagon3.0! ;)
Only that it could explain why he asked DDD a question, because he also switched opinion on dramonic in the same paragraph. That meant he was probably writing that post as he was reading day 1 and 2 while waiting for the game to open, without proofing it. I'm not putting an alignment tell to it.
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Post Post #528 (isolation #60) » Wed May 12, 2010 2:54 pm

Post by Jahudo »

SOG's power was mostly self-preservation because he probably would've been lynched if he didn't claim. I think he would have revealed his power and given it away as scum or town. Unless someone's arguing that SOG-scum would've fakeclaimed a different power if he still got the same power that he did.
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Post Post #545 (isolation #61) » Fri May 14, 2010 3:20 am

Post by Jahudo »

Hero (Cobalt/Sera) is downgraded as a suspect now that we know DDD and Tony are both town. I think Nik was just waiting to see if Tony would be lynched without his support. So when Nikanor voted Seraphim for throwing suspicion on DDD and bandwagoning Tony, it now looks like he was hoping to setup Seraphim as the scum presence on the Tony mislynch.

Porkens is my top suspect.

The only thing Nikanor said about Porkens was:
Nikanor wrote:Porkens just seems to be pushing whatever wagon is biggest. His play strikes me as something I'd see from a hidden Tarhalindur Survivor in this setup. I have no real read on Porkens.
I'm now seeing this as just BS. There's no 3rd party's in this semi-open setup. Nik could have been distancing from a buddy but he wasn't trying to get Porkens lynched with this because it wouldn't hold up in any case.

Porkens day 1 didn't have any signs of being pro-town. I still think his willingness to lynch anybody is something he'd do as town, but I wouldn't put it past him to act that way as scum either.


The first time Porkens acknowledged Nik was when he was at L-2 with about 46% left to play:
Porkens wrote:Nik and the other guy haven't raised flags for me. I have no read on them as strong as my read on Dramonic.

Misslynches aren't bad on day 1, whether they give powers or not.
Plenty of time to get a better lynch, but he's non-committal on whether or not Nikanor is a good enough day 1 lynch even if its a mislynch.

Porkens wrote:I believe that long day ones are detrimental to the town. I have to data to support that, but it is my feeling.
If Nikanor was a good enough lynch, why not vote him to L-1 back on page 6? Or was that still a short day 1?

Porkens wrote:Letting yourself die if your town when you can prevent it isn't good for the town.
Porkens wrote:If you believe this and are still unwilling to try to prove your claim then you should hammer yourself and save us the misslynch later on.
Was this change of opinion trying to get SOG to use his power, or was it really about getting rid of him?

Porkens wrote:The fact that SOG USED his ability and wasn't lying about it.
Why couldn't SOG have been lying about part of it? Like he could king somebody, INCLUDING someone from his hypo-scum group?

Vote: Porkens
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Post Post #552 (isolation #62) » Fri May 14, 2010 3:53 pm

Post by Jahudo »

@Mod: I voted Porkens in 545

I totally saw that. ~Vi
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Post Post #563 (isolation #63) » Sun May 16, 2010 3:49 am

Post by Jahudo »

Herodotus wrote:I don't think it's realistic that scum-SOG who did not have the power he described would claim that he did have that power.
I think he's saying something along the lines of "if SOG was scum, he could still have explained it like this":
I can wipe the vote clean. At such a time that I do this, I will get to choose one person in the game and his vote will be the only vote to count for the day, essentially allowing that player to choose who the lynch is on his own.

The subtext of my ability includes that if I were to have known partners I would not be able to select any of them with my ability.
And scum SOG could have been lying about the bolded part.

Porkens wrote:I hate day 1.
I like to wagon-jump.
I hammered scum.
I didn't (ultimately) support lynch of town.
1. Null tell
2. Null tell
3. Could be bussing
4. You didn't explain why SOG's action was pro-town and I still don't agree it was pro-town. Because I think he would have eventually used his power to help save himself as scum. The idea that it wouldn't help him could've been a nice touch if he thought the power he had wouldn't save him.

Though I agree about Cobalt having been a pretty good lynch yesterday.
Porkens wrote:Who did Nikanor vote for? I forget. I like to wagon hop.
Seraphim/Cobalt in post 264. Maybe about 48 hours until deadline, and you had said we needed a lynch.

What about Seraphim replacing out caused you to find his previous play scummy for the first time (ignore/feign ignorance/promise re-read)? You came up with that quick after he replaced out, so were you thinking about it earlier than that?
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Post Post #579 (isolation #64) » Mon May 17, 2010 6:00 am

Post by Jahudo »

About Pom:

At the start of day 2 I went from having a little doubt on Pom's alignment to finding her town. It checks out that she was agreeing with the newer details of the wagon around the time she added her vote, and not just agreeing with the wagon in general. She specifically singled out some of my later points, and some of Nik's later defense as what triggered her vote. If it was about dramonic and/or d3x's cases finally hitting her, I'd be more likely to view it as bussing.

Its not as genuine as d3x or dramonic's presence on the wagon, but I still think it was a strong push that doesn't look like bussing to me. And if part of the Pom case is about slacking off day 2, that kinda happened to alot of people.
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Post Post #581 (isolation #65) » Mon May 17, 2010 7:44 am

Post by Jahudo »

No harm in talking about it more.
VP Baltar wrote:She's been floating under the radar far too much and when I iso'ed her I don't like her following regarding SOG/Cobalt. She only voted yesterday when I prompted her and when I did she chose the leading bandwagon on SOG to put him at L-1.
Do you think she was floating more than someone like dramonic or d3x yesterday?
VP Baltar wrote:Then she coasted on that for awhile until Cobalt started to look likely. Then she tries to get off of SOG by saying his 11th hour power makes him look town...which was kind of ridiculous.
Agreed. Both her and Porkens used that reason, and I don't understand how either of them got to it.
VP Baltar wrote:At that point she said Cobalt was in "worse shape". Unfortunately, she doesn't even mention him after that and continues to argue with SOG about why he's scum.
She mentioned Cobalt before that post, Post 457. It seemed pretty self-explanatory.

She was investigating SOG who was still a suspect despite that apparent "truthful claim tell", which is more than I could say about Porkens on anyone. I think it makes her look good that she's at least trying to contribute when she doesn't have a vote.
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Post Post #590 (isolation #66) » Tue May 18, 2010 4:39 am

Post by Jahudo »

RE d3x:

I think Nikanor was just waiting for the winner of DDD and Tony to emerge, and maybe even let the loser get lynched on their own. So Nik was hesitant to say either was more scummy, but kinda hinted they both could be scum.

Nikanor calling Porkens a 3rd party role made no strategic sense. There's no 3rd party in this game, so it couldn't have been seriously trying to throw suspicion on Porkens. It looks like an illusion.

Porkens' take on Nikanor is a better connection than Nik's on Porkens though.

----------------

@Trumpet: What about VPB's case was solid? All of it? Maybe VPB addressed what I did that rubbed you the wrong way.
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Post Post #600 (isolation #67) » Wed May 19, 2010 5:54 am

Post by Jahudo »

@ToD: Why did you vote so quickly?

I ask this because you replace into alot of games, but typically only vote after you've made a case on someone. Here's some examples:

You made a case before voting in this game: Mini 937, where you were town.
Here you voted as you gave your player reads, Mafia 104, and you were town.
In Legacy of the Ancients Mafia you were town and first voted when you had a case ready.
And don't forget Korlash Town, another town performance where you made a case then voted, but not before.

On the flipside, you voted before the case in this game: Mafia 102, where you played as scum.
But that's the only scum game I've seen you replace into, so maybe there's another explanation?
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Post Post #603 (isolation #68) » Wed May 19, 2010 12:16 pm

Post by Jahudo »

Herodotus wrote:@Jahudo: A cursory look at your links says that your comments are correct.
Were you in any of those games? (I don't see you as a player.) If not, what prompted you to check so many of ToD's games? Have you looked into his playstyle during a previous game together? (Or are there any other ongoing games you're both in?)
The only time I saw him was in Vi's Mafia Jailbreak, but he was NK'ed before he really got to posting.

It was actually my lack of familiarity with his game that made me want to read into him a little bit. I'm not sure yet if he really sees me as suspicious, or if he just liked VP's case on me for its own merits.
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Post Post #609 (isolation #69) » Thu May 20, 2010 8:28 am

Post by Jahudo »

ToD wrote:Not that trying to mislead the town isn't scummy, but that's the reason he uses to vote?
You're ignoring that I was on d3x first and his defense changed my opinion of both him and Nikanor. What about my posts leading up to my Nikanor vote didn't indicate I was investigating d3x above everyone else? And that it was d3x's case that made me look at Nikanor at the time of my vote.

That's what caused my vote to be the 4th one. You don't seem to have evidence of any other reasoning.

Also, with a lack of ToD scum games, I don't feel confident saying he is more likely to replace in as scum and think about voting first.

So....... Porkens lynch?
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Post Post #617 (isolation #70) » Fri May 21, 2010 6:21 am

Post by Jahudo »

I can compromise on a ToD lynch. Its possible either/both Pom and Porkens were looking for the next mislynch after SOG's lynch was well in hand. I don't see how either of them came to the conclusion that he was town, and neither really pushed to save him.
Trumpet of Doom wrote:How far back do you want me to go? Your first post that even mentioned d3x was iso 10, in which he was suddenly your top suspect. (For reference, your Nik vote was in iso 12.)
What's wrong with suddenly in this case?
Trumpet of Doom wrote:In iso 10, you have 5 different paragraphs, only one of which is related to d3x.
That's all I needed to say at that point. Hearing from d3x about the other players was Step 2.
Trumpet of Doom wrote:(And iso 11 looks like backtracking some on the "not giving reads" that you brought up in iso 10, just as a bit more for why you're scum.)
I don't see what you're talking about?
Trumpet of Doom wrote:My issue with that is that if someone posts a reason for voting in the vote post, I tend to assume that's the only reason they're voting.
Most people on this site aren't like that.
Trumpet of Doom wrote:I'd say the fourth vote is fairly good for distancing scum: It's not too early (so if it doesn't go anywhere, your buddy's not really pissed at you), but it's early enough to give you potential town cred for being on your partner's lynch while not being too obvious about "ooh, I need to be on this scumlynch!"
From what I can tell, you've only played in 1 mini game where scum got lynched on day 1. That was Korlash Town, where the 4th vote was made by a townie. So where does this theory come from? Because I've heard variations and don't believe any are really reliable until you take in the unique circumstances of each wagon.
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Post Post #620 (isolation #71) » Sat May 22, 2010 12:39 am

Post by Jahudo »

@ToD: What do you think of everyone else in the game? Who is your second suspect?
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Post Post #623 (isolation #72) » Sat May 22, 2010 7:58 am

Post by Jahudo »

This is an interesting development. I now think ToD is town, so forget what I said about switching votes. We need a Porkens lynch.
Trumpet of Doom wrote:I'd have imagined your top suspect would have been one of the people you were asking questions to or about in iso 8 or iso 9. Having it instead be someone whose existence you hadn't even acknowledged until then seems... off, for lack of a better word.

The question was, "what about [your] posts leading up to [your] Nikanor vote didn't indicate [you were] investigating d3x above everyone else?" The amount of space you dedicated in iso 10 to everyone else relative to d3x definitely doesn't indicate it.
You thought I should've prodded a lurker on page 3? That's a reach.

The people I talked to in ISO's 8 and 9 were things I needed clarification on, because what they said wasn't entirely clear but at that time I wasn't thinking they'd be scummy. With d3x, it looked like active lurking, which I thought was suspicious, and I felt I wasn't misreading the lack of information so there was nothing to clarify.
Trumpet of Doom wrote:Therefore, scum don't really want to get on their partner's wagon too early.
So in short, you just made up a bunch of stuff that sounds logical but really amounts to random odds unless you take in the specifics of that wagon.

Scum will place their vote on a buddy whenever they think is best to their overall survival. The middle has its pros and cons like any other spot. Trust me, bussing is my gimmick. If I could do it as town, I would.
Percy wrote:In particular, I think Cobalt was town, and with me saying that I was unwilling to hammer Cobalt, it makes a lot of sense for scum-Jahudo to switch his vote from Cobalt to semioldguy when I had to come in and do the hammering. Looking back on that switch, it seems very poorly reasoned to me, and makes more sense as a scum move trying to secure a townie mislynch.
Um no. As I recall you were unwilling to switch so I had to compromise so we wouldn't get a no lynch. And we don't know that Cobalt/Hero is town, though I'd bet he is town.
Percy wrote:He also backed out of the Hero suspicion (despite declaring Porkens and Hero scum early on today via PoE) by using the same ideas I had earlier, but somehow strengthened due to the townflips.
Where did you have the same ideas?
Percy wrote:I don't follow the reasoning well enough to see why it's a compelling point today, but wasn't like that yesterday.
Seriously? SOG and DDD were still alive yesterday. I thought Nikanor might've been buddying Tony to DDD (or less likely DDD to Tony). Once I knew both were town, it was clear he was waiting for the loser to emerge and become the mislynch.
Percy wrote:Finally, his "willingness to compromise" on a ToD lynch also feels like a scum move.
I've said from the start that BOTH Pom and Porkens looked bad for their SOG "town read". Its just that Porkens has done other things I think are bad, whereas that's the only thing I have against Pom.
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Post Post #626 (isolation #73) » Sat May 22, 2010 8:26 am

Post by Jahudo »

What does Pom having a suspicious town read on SOG have anything to do with ToD attacking me?
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Post Post #628 (isolation #74) » Sat May 22, 2010 9:54 am

Post by Jahudo »

I didn't vote ToD. I've been on Porkens this whole time. Its still the larger wagon, so unless that changes everyone else should compromise with us.
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Post Post #630 (isolation #75) » Sat May 22, 2010 12:11 pm

Post by Jahudo »

This:
Trumpet of Doom wrote:Percy: seems town.
<snip>...
I'm inclined to see Porkens as town.
I think ToD is serious about thinking I'm scum. If he was scum, its a sure thing either Porkens or Percy is town and I would think he would have been more open to joining one of those wagons than starting a new one on me.

Compromise to me is when you're on the short wagon and know it won't get any bigger. Right now we still don't really know what dramonic thinks about ToD, or what several people now think of me as a lynch for that matter. So if it came to be that the Porkens wagon decreased, I would have felt OK about helping the ToD wagon. Now I'm thinking a Jahudo wagon/lynch would be good for information if we can't get Porkens.

So if you really think I'm potential scum, you should vote now and see who else can justify a compromise on me.
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Post Post #635 (isolation #76) » Sun May 23, 2010 4:49 am

Post by Jahudo »

Great. Lurking townies and a closing deadline. Not much time to right this ship and LOST is on tonight. :/
Percy wrote:1. Your vote on SOG seems extremely weak, especially since your vote was so crucial. You quote me, and despite admittedly not understanding half of it, you use that reason to vote him.
That's called compromising with someone who wouldn't give any leeway. I was making sure there wasn't a no lynch. Seems like you would twist this around either way and call it scummy.
Percy wrote:This was somehow due to SOG flipping town, but I still don't understand why you didn't even discuss this possibility yesterday.
SOG and DDD. If one of them was scum, he wouldn't have been very at ease in thinking either way it turned there would be a mislynch. Having them both be town changes the dynamic of how he was treating other people, like Seraphim. So it had everything to do with the townflips and its amazing how you don't acknowledge how that might be possible.
Percy wrote:Porkens becomes your top suspect at the start of the day due to this Nikanor wagon interaction, despite your discussion without conclusion along the same lines before backing up to "he is not a good lynch for these reasons" in this post the previous day.
I was initially overlooking the obvious with Nikanor's suspicion of Porkens. There are no 3rd party roles, so he was obviously not trying to get Porkens mislynched. It was a distancing ruse all along and I initially fell for it. You either missed my turnaround or neglected to mention it.

My wagon is at the worst scum-driven, and at the best founded on tunnel visioned judgement. Percy has repeatedly ignored entire posts from me where I explain my changes of opinion. He doesn't acknowledged any of my stances, just the speculative outcomes. He's not investigating me.

And I think I'll know if he's scum or not after his next post.

unvote;
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Post Post #642 (isolation #77) » Mon May 24, 2010 5:06 am

Post by Jahudo »

TOWN

dramonic
Herodotus
VP Baltar
d3x
ToD
Percy
Porkens

SCUM
Percy wrote:You miss my point. Not only was DDD available to you, who had expressed a willingness to kill Cobalt; but you also switch to SOG for no other reason than to secure his lynch, rather than trying to make a case against him or any other suspect at that crucial time.
When? As I recall you weren't willing to settle, I did make a case that you wouldn't debate with me, and DDD never said he could override either one of us. Deadline came after little discussion and I had to act.
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Post Post #643 (isolation #78) » Mon May 24, 2010 5:12 am

Post by Jahudo »

VP Baltar wrote:deadline is probably today isn't it?
Maybe if we spam the thread we'll get an extra day.

I don't mind if someone wants to hammer me right now. I'm not going to pull some crazy gambit to get a different lynch. Even though I really want to. I'm just a townie who's immune to desperation stuff.
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Post Post #776 (isolation #79) » Fri Jun 11, 2010 2:09 am

Post by Jahudo »

What would a flavor massclaim have done? The fakeclaims look normal to me.

Hero played pretty well despite his predecessors. I think it helped that he wasn't under too much pressure from the start, so he could ease into the game more and look even-handed and fair.

Knowing Cobalt was so close to being lynched is disappointing, but that game mechanic actually feels like it was pro-scum. It basically took the town mentality out of the game so the people with the votes had less discussion to consider and had to be more reliant on their own opinions, which just made compromise alot harder.

I should've stuck with my initial plan of treating Porkens like a neutral until endgame. He's too hard to read. :(

@Nikanor: why did you call Porkens a neutral survivor? I never understood that, since we knew there was only a 3-person scum team.

The brawl with VPB was fun while it lasted. I don't think I could've caught you though. The tells weren't really developed and it felt like a town-town stalemate to me.

And I thought Sotty was lurking a little too much. ...what's that, Sotty wasn't in this game? This is a Vi-mod game right?

Thanks for modding once again, Vi. Hopefully we can play in a game again, maybe in a setting where you don't lynch me right when I replace in? (gonzo, new age) :)
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Jahudo
Jahudo
Mafia Scum
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Jahudo
Mafia Scum
Mafia Scum
Posts: 4150
Joined: June 30, 2008
Location: Cleveland, OH

Post Post #779 (isolation #80) » Fri Jun 11, 2010 3:33 am

Post by Jahudo »

I did enjoy the music, and usually played it in the background while I caught up on new posts. You picked alot of songs that fit the game's mood.
Vi wrote:*OMGJahudo'savatar
If I knew more about phoenix wright I might have thrown out objections to people more. The avatar was the least I could do.

Or do you mean baby red panda? That's because of the avatar thread in mafia discussion. Cuteness gives you lynch resistance.

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