Discuss.
Mini 973: "Bawhston" Brawl (WHAT A WIN!)
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
It is true, and I am happy to share my motivation for claiming in my first post, but I have a vested interest in seeing others' reactions and thoughts first. Reckoner's trying to object, I think. I don't really know. But it would be more helpful for me if he went through the logic in his head right about now. I'm a little disappointed at those that have opted to random vote when I've offered an actual talking point.Gwynplaine wrote:Props to Hoopla for getting us out of the RVS in Post 5. If she really is a PGO, then claiming early on Day 1 might be the right thing to do.
Vote: Reckoner-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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You know, this is the single most annoying thing that someone can say in a mafia game. It is absolutely redundant and doesn't push the game forward in any way. If there are no more random events taking place, surely you must have some reads either way on someone (or something) to lay down a serious or semi-serious vote. If you can't do that, then you're still in the RVS. There is no reason outside of lylo for you to not be voting.Oso wrote:And since we are out of the RVS it seems,
Unvote
This post rubs me the wrong way too - it's rife with useless spin and fluff, and does nothing to address my roleclaim, despite the post being about it completely. The last paragraph is most troubling, as it attempts to push responsibility off himself and onto others, which sucks when you consider the rest of his post is just fluff.Oso wrote:
Unfortunately for the both of us I think, you will get no in-depth reaction from me on Hoopla's claim other than this:Radical Hijinx wrote:Also Oso. Way to STILL fail to address or react to the claim
Whatever she is doing, it is rather ballsy but there is no context yet for me to put it into the perspective of pro-town or anti-town. There is obviously some direction she is going with it but the direction is not clear to me. The best thing for me to do, at least in my opinion, being that it is early in the game and we have had only half the player's chime in here, is to get out of her way to do whatever it is she is going to do.
Her RC is going to be center stage for most of this game day I'm thinking and there should be a whole wealth of information on the players that can be gathered today to be used in context later in the day and later in the game.
To answer your point as to why I random voted after Hoopla's RC it is because I am more interested in seeing others reactions to her than I am about being worried if I am coming off pro-town or scummy.
Unvote, vote: Oso. Get an opinion if you think we're out of the RVS.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Since everyone has responded in some way or another to my claim, it's time to divulge some of my motivation for claiming.
When I initially got the role, I was excited for the potential to wipe out a scumteam with hyper-protown play, but along with it carries an extreme risk of eliminating multiple town powerroles (possibly more than one a night), so the decision for me was weighing up the likelihood of taking out enough scum to counteract any town PR's I take out, and it isn't favourable.
Assuming we're in a 3:9 game (the most common variation in Mini Normals), these games are usually offset by 3-4 town power roles vs. 0-1 scum powerroles, which means if all actions are still in play N1, I have a significantly higher chance of killing town than scum. You also must note, that if scum did choose to kill me N1, they only take one hit, as they won't be able to target me again. The town runs the risk of multiple roles killing me over multiple days, as they are all separate entities. I think I am the sort of player that is a good N1 target for PR's too.
Another weighting factor was my personal distaste for the so called RVS. This claim forces scum to switch on immediately and consider their stances, which immediately draws out information. I have a pretty decent catalogue of expected tells I can draw from this experience, because unlike the RVS, an early claim like separates town and scum player's motivations significantly.
If my role is true, and I can manage to convince the players here I am town, I can be a ridiculously powerful weapon against scum. Town doesn't know if I am truthful or not, though. Scum does. Which provides ample information for early on D1, because scum's natural position will be somewhere from in the middle to pro-policy lynch, because they cannot afford to keep me alive. havingfitz and possibly someone like q21 are good character models for what I expected from scum, and would make delicious D1 lynches (from my perspective).
If anyone has any explicit questions about my role/decision, feel free to ask. I'm going to be combing through some of the earlier posts in a bit more detail now, so expect more from me soon.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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Hello Slepz, allow me to point out the fundamental flaws in your argument. As a town, we generally have only three mislynches before we lose the game, unless there is a 2-player scumteam, or we manage to make a mafia kill at night, or protect a townie from a scum kill. Three mislynches is ridiculously low when you think about it - the first one is used Day 1 with limited information, get the second one wrong and you're in mylo! Do you seriously think we're going to be able to confirm every player in this game, or even two? Every player we choose not to lynch (and there needs to be many) is a risk if they aren't confirmed.Slepz wrote: So in summary, I admit fitz's behavior seems a bit scummy, but I feel that a PGO is too big a risk. If it were possible to confirm through investigation it would be a great town asset, but as it is not I feel Hoopla is the best lynch choice.
You are using the 'WELL, SHE COULD BE' logic, that applies to EVERYONE on day 1. The fact I have claimed a role doesn't alter this - this is what policy lynches are. They are lynches that don't hit scum more often than not. If you think I am more likely to be fakeclaiming, then that is a scumtell and I'd appreciate you explaining your reasons why my claim is likelier to be fake.
If you are only in this for the policy lynch, explain why this is a good option in a game with so few chances to lynch scum.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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Some thoughts on everyone's play so far;
Furry
I like his reaction to my claim - I appreciate the awkwardness of me believing him because he believes me, but this is exactly the stance scum would not make. Or at the very best, only one of the scumteam would make so they still had a chance to push my wagon. Furry has been proactive and sensible in his reads though and should I ever die in this game, my town flip would strongly suggest Furry is town too.
Gwynplaine
Tough to figure out - his first post leans toward a town read on me, but still leaves the option open to switch if things picked up. My read of him improved when he attacked Slepz, who is the biggest advocate for a policy lynch this game.
havingfitz
He is my pick for lynch today. He's dropped the most information about his alignment than anyone else, and I am liking the personnel in favour of this lynch, which makes me feel better about it. He initially didn't respond directly to my claim, which I interpret as a loose scum team. I imagine town players would be dazzled/confused/intrigued enough to comment on it, whereas ignoral of such a detail indicates belief, but is not sure how to react to it.
Fishing for the policy lynch is his biggest crime - it's as if he's testing the waters for supporters of a Hoopla wagon without getting his hands dirty himself. His opinions have slowly morphed towards policy lynch, even if he doesn't recognise it as that.
InflatablePie
To be honest, I hadn't followed too many of his posts to remember the stances he took, and I still can't get much of a read either way. His initial impression of my claim is a viable response from town or scum, and even his follow up posts are hard to gauge. His analysis has been minimal, but logical enough to not warrant any suspicion. Unsure.
JacobSavage
Has posted next to nothing. His first actual 'content' post, if you can call it that, was uninformative and didn't take any major stances, or even reference any of the major events. Need to hear a lot more from him soon, though.
Nikanor
Liking his play so far - it's been minimal, but he's raised decent points each time, and also doesn't fit in with my theory of scum being open to or pushing a policy lynch on me. Probably town from my perspective.
Oso
Started out poorly, ignoring my claim and then sitting on the fence, but I can't help get town vibes from his play. It seems like genuine uncertainty, even if it isn't the correct play to wallow in it, rather than taking a stance based on logic or gut. His logic about him waiting back so he can analyse everyone's reactions is also flawed, but still has an innocent air about it. I'm not sure about him passing his vote on to me though, that seems like a way to avoid responsibility.
I'm okay with Oso being around though, because he seems like a pretty readable player. His case on Radical Hijinx is quite decent too.
q21
I'm mostly skeptical about his play, because I know he is cagey and capable of producing rational, logical cases as either alignment. I haven't played with him in a while, so it's possible my meta is outdated or skewed by poor memory, but he seems to favour rationality over gut, and find loopholes and pieces of logic that fit together, which I know is very doable for him as either alignment.
His entry into the game was the sketchiest moment for me. He opted for a safe vote on Oso, questioning his obviously anti-town style of sitting back waiting for reactions, but q21 himself didn't offer much of an opinion either way. The following couple of posts seem hollow - an enquiry into Nikanor's playstyle, an explanation of PGO's and an offhand comment to Furry. It's like he's around a lot, but hasn't given much, when I would have expected him to get his hands a bit dirtier. I especially expected him to question me a bit more, but at the moment he doesn't look like he's trying to discover people's alignments, which isn't how I remember q21.
Radical Hijinx
Difficult case really - his first post after my claim advocating a policy lynch is a scum tell to me, but the way he pursued other opinions on the claim, and grilled those who ignored it seemed genuine. It could be a case of forcing the suspicion on to these players to take attention off his scum-favouring stance, but I'm not convinced he is scum. I don't expect scum to back down from the policy lynch stance after it was pointed out as potentially scummy. Him leaving his vote on me is odd, possibly wreckless, but I don't think it's there as a devious way to grow my wagon.
Slepz
I'm not digging his reaction to the claim - he is the one most in favour of a policy lynch. The logic seems to be, 'well, it isn't confirmable, she must be lynched!', which is flawed because you'll never be able to confirm many players in the game. You're always taking a risk with whoever you choose not to kill. The fact he has no interest in analysing my play and trying to figure out my alignment isn't good play, and if he really wants to sit on his hands and sport this policy, he needs to justify why a lynch on me is beneficial to the town in the long run.
xRECKONERx
I wasn't really digging the jokey posts at first, but he has turned it around with his logical butchering of Slepz' post, which makes me feel better about him. I have no immediate concerns with Reck, because I don't think he is the sort of character deliberately trying to avoid making a stance.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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For reference, here is a visual interpretation of how I see the views toward my claim. I am speaking from a confirmed town perspective, so it doesn't include the possibility of me being scum. This is more a if/when I flip thing, so you can understand Day 1's reactions a little better.
This isn't exactly to scale, as I don't expect scum to be twice as likely to be pro-policy lynch, but it might be close. The point I wanted to show, is that while town uncertainty leaves them open to land anywhere in the spectrum, scum have a vested interest in not finding me town, and making sure I am lynched at some point, which is why those who find me very town right now, do not feel like scum to me, because it seems like the unnatural or even damaging stance for scum to take.
This obviously opens up problems if I am not town, as it looks like I am just siding with anyone who thinks I am town. But I hope lynching a couple of scumbags early from the analysis of reactions to my claim will be enough to not warrant me needing to be lynched. But I reiterate, this is more a if/when I flip town thing, or if you think I am town now and want to understand what I am seeing.-
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Hoopla
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If this is to be an ongoing theme in your play, I'd prefer you cut your losses and replaced out now. Because it will be more damaging in the long run for the town, if you just stagger along and replace out in a week or two, rather than now. If you want to play on, you must promise you're going to lift your tempo relatively soon (ie; now), because it sucks having an empty slot in the game.JacobSavage wrote:@AllSorry, I am only just keeping up what with exams and the such like anyway.
I cant quite get out of my head that Oso is scum and Fitz is his partner?
I dont know..-
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Hoopla
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What do you think the right decision is if you were dealt the hand of PGO?havingfitz wrote:Hoopla...your suspicions towards me amount to nothing more than OMGUS reasoning and the dreaded policy lynch fishing is a load of crap. I was asking for clarification. <snip>
I consider claiming it a little like insurance - you can run the risk that no town PR's will hit you, and they might not. You might be lynched, or NK'ed by anti-town faction first, and that is a positive result. But if it goes wrong, it really goes wrong and I have the power to wipe out multiple town PR's, which has the ugly image of looking like 3rd party/mafia if I were to then claim. Claiming Day 1 prevents the best and worst case scenarios, which is more beneficial to town when the worst case scenarios are more powerful/likely than the best case scenarios.
Policy lynches contribute to town losses in the long run, because they are based on policy as opposed to any genuine scumhunting. It means at best, the lynch will be random (that is if you assume scum isn't the ones pushing policy lynches), and when you only have three mislynches in a Mini Normal, it hurts a lot if you're wrong. You should be able to assess my play and find things I am doing to be more town or scum motivated, rather than just policy.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Nice catch! But I'm not going to keep my vote somewhere it won't have an effect. Slepz isn't far behind due to stubborn stance on policy lynching. I'm hoping if we can catch scum early in anti-Hoopla positions, it will make my position look a bit tidier.q21 wrote:Hoopla wrote:WAIT, WHY HAS THE HAVINGFITZ WAGON DISINTERGRATED?
UNVOTE, VOTE: SLEPZ
Complains about the disintegration of the fitz wagon... and then continues that disintegration with a second reasonless vote of the game. Your words contradict your actions. fitz's analysis of you - which is beginning to move his vote away from unadmitted policy lynch - is starting to look like it has a point.
What's up with the Jacob/Nikanor deal thing? I don't believe the setting up of lynches thing, mostly because it's just two players, and because it's so blatant. I can safely say, that they're both not scum together, and probably not even scum individually. Seems like a stupid move.
Can we get on with this?-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
Okay.Furry wrote:
Im down with this. Want to join JS wagon instead though?Hoopla wrote:Slepz and JacobSavage should be competing for the rest of the votes today. Time to turn this into a two-horse race.
Unvote, vote: JacobSavage
I think I like the delicately poised position of 4-4 more than 5-3 anyway. It amplifies the upcoming votes that will tilt these wagons either way, and means that anyone that wants something other than these two options really has to work hard to get it.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
- Joined: October 12, 2008
All kills resolve simultaneously unless interfered with in some other way. It's just like if a vig killed a scum, and that scum killed the vig. They'd both die, even though it doesn't really make sense flavour-wise. My role is basically a vig that kills anyone that tries to do something to me. That something still affects me, but I kill them.Oso wrote:
@Hoopla, I assumed that the PGO lived through the attempt since it didn't specifically address being targeted by a killing role. My assumption was that the PGO preempted any target attempts. But in all honesty, this is the only game I have been in that even had a claim of PGO in it, so my experience with the role is exactly zero.From the Wiki wrote:The Paranoid Gun Owner, similar to the Army Veteran, involuntarily kills anyone who targets him during the night, regardless of alignment. He can be a liability to the Town for this reason, as he indiscriminately kills Cops, Doctors, etc. He can not choose to kill.
So I'll take your word for it unless someone else has some input on it.-
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Hoopla
- Posts: 10788
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I think the vig-directing plan is flawed. I'll point out my reasoning:
Assuming the claim is true, it is quite likely that scum has some powerrole to counteract this, because unlimited vig is debatably one of the most powerful, game-changing roles the town can have. Think Roleblocker, Bus-Driver, Redirector - if any of these roles exist (or essentially any scum role that has the ability to manipulate), then our results will be flawed, as scum can direct traffic or frame someone for the next lynch based on what they stop/change at night. And it is a real possibility it could happen.
But lets look at it from all the possible angles. I'll even include the possibility of me being scum to create an objective post, from the eye of the onlooker;
1)Hoopla Scum,Jacob Town
Well, if this is the case, you should hardly be trusting what I say. So, I'll try to dispute this possibility by being as logical as I can in my position, and showcasing what could happen if this was the case. This is a troubling scenario for town, as my claim, whilst not being universally believed, is quite close to it. Jacob killing me (or any other variant) would be a favourable outcome in this circumstance.
But as I explained before, the likelihood of a manipulation role is quite high (especially in conjunction with a vig). To help accentuate my point, I checked through the last 40 Closed 3:9 Mini Normals, and 25 of them contained a Mafia Roleblocker/Jailkeeper, which is stark odds when you're entrusting a direction style plan to prove/disprove someone.
In this instance, if the town decided to direct Jacob to me, I surely would use my team roleblocker to counteract this ploy (if one exists). If the town were to decide to direct the kill on someone town, surely we would leave him be and reap the favourable benefits of a double town kill. Even though this would prove Jacob's killing ability, there would still be grave concerns about him possibly being a SK.
This is the only real scenario where directing the vigilante kill makes sense. However, it is hampered by dim odds of this being the mix of alignments between I and Jacob, and also the reliance on there not being a scum manipulation role. I hardly think this is a worthwhile chance, and I'm not just arguing this because I am a possible candidate.
Even jacob suiciding is prone to scum manipulation. Assume, safely, that scum has a roleblocker, would it not be in their interest to block a vigilante suicide? They get the glory of killing a townie elsewhere Night 1, set-up a Jacob mislynch tomorrow and get through to Day 3, quite likely untouched, which might I remind you would be mylo.
2)Hoopla Town,Jacob Scum
From my biased perspective, this is the likeliest scenario, although I expect convincing the rest of you should remain harder. The worry with directing the vig kill in this instance is there isn't a kill to direct. Ordinarily we would assume the result of only one kill going through should prove Jacob as scum, but it is not even close to doing so. One night kill could mean that Jacob isn't a vig, but it also could mean scum have a roleblocker and we're in scenario 1, it could mean scum are no-killing to use Jacob's kill and incriminate him at the same time. Or it could be any other number of potential role interactions or gambits.
The bottom line is, one-kill tonight, especially if myself and Jacob are alive tomorrow is a detrimental situation. As it means we're in the same situation as today, but having settled for a sub-optimal lynch yesterday, and then the loss of a townie at night. This is a real possibility if we go down the route of directing the vig kill, and I believe this is a more damaging scenario than any benefits that could be gleaned from this plan.
We've a far better chance of succeeding if we take a risk today on Jacob, or myself, if need be (although I could never endorse this from a personal perspective).
3)Hoopla Town,Jacob Town
Possible, but unlikely. It's been said before, but this would be chaos in a Mini Normal. I've seen some swingy Mini Normal set-ups before, but I think yabba is sensible enough not to go down that route.
In the unlikely situation this is true, scum would be licking their chops with delight, getting rid of one (or two) of the powerroles that could prove most damaging to their success.
4)Hoopla Scum,Jacob Scum
Well, this would have to be an extremely adventurous gambit to go for such distancing. But if this scenario is true, how can you go wrong with lynching one of us today?
There remains plenty of other options if you include the possibility of a SK, but listing all those combinations would be time consuming and I doubt people would read them. Suffice to say, myself and Jacob do have claims decently suited to a would-be SK, and if so, going with the vig-directing plan is likely to fail. We must assume that SK's in Mini Normal's (and in general) are likely to have at least one-shot-bullet protection (possibly unlimited). I don't have the data on this, but it's rare to see a Vanilla SK.
This provides another obstacle in any directing plan, as the introduction of a possibly BP player improves the odds of a one-kill night, which yields no information if we're both alive.
In conclusion, I'm of the opinion we should be lynching one of myself and Jacob, as there is a real chance one of us is scum, or (seemingly) worst-case scenario, a SK. We have no real reason to stall with frivolous plans rife with possible manipulations. Seriously, it won't be a positive result for town.-
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Hoopla
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It should be noted, that although my 'hammer' on Jacob was deliberately faked in an attempt to gauge reactions and hopefully get a confession from Jacob, q21's 'hammer' was real.
What's most striking to me is the little time q21 used to mull over the claim, let other people have their say, or even question Jacob. It was a mere 90 minutes from claim to hammer, with only a couple of posts in between. I'm not sure whether this is what I would expect from q21 as scum, as knowingly restricting such information, and knowingly hammering someone not-mafia would incriminate himself badly. It stands to reason if he were scum, his motivation for hammering Jacob would be fear of his role's power. This leads me to the belief that if q21 is scum, then the scumteamdoesn'thave a power capable of manipulating/stopping the vig kill.
An alternate theory could be the protection of a q21/Slepz scumpair, something I could reasonably believe, as surely if/when (q21 wasn't to know) the Jacob wagon fell away, Slepz was next in line, which is another scum motivation for such a quick hammer. This is obviously dependent on another player being scum, so it's difficult to believe now, but it might be a handy point in a case later in the game with confirmed alignments on one of those two.
I'm not sure the town motivation for q21's hammer - I've always envisioned him as a sensible, logical player, not prone to blind impulsive decisions. It's possible this meta is stale as he has had a year out of the game, but from what I've seen this game, he doesn't seem to have changed. But I'm convinced q21musthave known this would look very bad for himself if he were scum, that I find myself wifom'ing out of this read. It's obvious q21 isn't scum with Jacob though.
q21, can you explain your reasoning for 'hammering' Jacob in a little more depth? I'm finding it hard to understand why on earth you would do it so quickly, rather than waiting for other reactions first. Were you afraid the wagon would fall away?-
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Hoopla
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What the hell? I never elaborated or advocated JS to target me tonight. Myhavingfitz wrote:@ Furry - As I have focused on both of them today it would be easy to say I think they are both scum. I'm not sure though. I think one of them definitely but JS's claim has muddied things for me. If he is telling the truth though he is a prime target for the NK so as I pointed out earlier....and as Hoopla elaborated on...I think the best solution would be for JS to target Hoopla tonight and go for the lynch of whomever is next highest on everyone's list's (which for me is TBM).wholepost was violently dismantling the logic behind directing the vig kill, because it is dependent on scum not having a manipulation role (unlikely) and Jason being town (unlikely). If Jason is mafia, there will be one kill tonight and we will gain zero extra information for tomorrow and be worse off with less townies.
The only way this plan has a chance of working is if Jacob is town, which, when you take into account the complications of a possible SK, leaves such slim odds of success, it is suboptimal to try to lynch anyone other than our scummier player today.
Besides, if you think at least one of us is scum, you're doing yourself an extreme disservice if you're town, because you're not taking a 50% (or better) chance of hitting scumnow. Then you don't have to worry about convoluted plans and worst-case scenarios of a one-death night, nor do you need to worry about lynching from a pool of 10 other players where presumably there is one or two scum at most.
In conclusion, don't paint me as an architect for directing the vig kill, when it's the exact opposite to what I am saying.-
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Hoopla
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It isn't an out - if anything it's incriminating. If he was predicting he only had a brief chance to hammer, he's acting against the collective view of the town, making a decision based on what he wants, rather than what the town wants.xRECKONERx wrote:
Don't ask him a question and then give him an out like this.Hoopla wrote:Were you afraid the wagon would fall away?
If he didn't think the town would change their mind, then he had no reason to drop the hammer so quickly and lose vital reactions to his claim. Remember, he tried to hammer after only one other person talked of their view on the claim, when the reason Jacob was at L-1 was for his play prior to that.-
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Hoopla
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For what it's worth, I passionately endorse speedier games. Too often towns mess around in semantic debates instead of making compromises and pushing the game forward. The human mind has a finite capacity of information it is capable of absorbing and accurately analysing, and it is a lot less than people think in a game of mafia. Day 1 is the hardest time, because you're operating with very little information - and lets be honest, the chances of hitting scum are close to random (or worse).q21 wrote: I can already here you shouting, "But discussion is important!" It is, but lets be honest here, what exactly has the last two pages of discussion achieved? Not much. This exchange, dealing with the unusual speed of my hammer, is the first real point of interest to come out of the last few pages. If my hammer had been successful we could just as easily be having this discussion tomorrow. (That of course presupposes that I would still be alive.
Day 1shouldbe used to generate information, to increase the likelihood of lynching scum in future days. That doesn't mean lynchanyonenow - information is derived from people making definitive stances as well as compromises. But the worst thing we can do is string out Day 1 to the point where it becomes a chore to read in furture days, because all this 'information' we have been banking doesn't get reread as well as what a 8-10 page Day 1 might be.
This doesn't apply to your hammer though, as a player claiming is a major event in the game. I'm not completely sold on your motives, but I'm in favour of lynching Jacob too, so I'm not too concerned about you until we see a card flip.-
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Hoopla
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That's assuming scum don't have a roleblocker, or Jacob isn't mafia. Even then, theInflatablePie wrote:We can prove his role in one way or another. In this case, Jacob can be tied to a kill.
I guess it's only semi-provable outside of kill flavor since he could be an SK.best-casescenario is Jacob proves he is capable of killing. That confirms an ability, not an alignment. The (likely) worst-case scenario is we come out of Night 1 with one kill, which proves NOTHING, and we've made a sub-optimal lynch Day 1, and then have to waste the Day 2 lynch on him or me.
Seriously, those living in the fantasy world of being able to 'prove' Jacob need to wake up and realise you'll just be delaying the inevitable - his lynch. The later it happens, the worse it will be for the town.-
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Hoopla
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Hoping for a mafia flip, although gut is giving me weird SK vibes for some reason. It does seem like an unusual mafia claim, in it would only give him an extra day or two or at the most, which runs against normal fakeclaims that seek to last throughout the game, or at least draw out a powerrole like cop.
Having said that, Day 1 lynches frequently end up on weaker players who either give little thought to the game, or don't know understand what makes a good fakeclaim. I've seen too many Vanilla Townie claims from scum to be convinced most Day 1 lynchees aren't using the most the rational approach. I'll be dazzled if Jacob flips vig.-
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Hoopla
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Quite likely we're playing in a 3:1:8 rather than a 2:1:9 I would say, which means yesterday's lynch of a SK is the equivalent of a town mislynch in a 3:9 set-up. For wagon analysis, it's probably simpler that we assume Jacob was town, because anyone not mafia is all the same to them, which is the information we're trying to unturn.
I'm a little worried with how quickly Slepz/Dsister's wagon fell away in favour of Jacob. It seemed as if he were frozen on 5 votes for a long time, whilst Jacob had no trouble overcoming that milestone. So, lets look at the vote counts and some of the reasons why it may have unfolded this way;
It's at this point Slepz briefly gets to L-1 with Jacob's vote. However, it quickly unravels due to Jacob setting up a deal with Nikanor to lynch someone he doesn't think is scum. Although exaggerated, it was a decently scummy move by Jacob. I myself, was also part of this seachange, shifting momentum to Jacob, but I can't help but feel uneasy in how quickly it all happened.
When you consider his previous play, which amounted to very little, there were many pretty easy reasons to be on board the Jacob wagon, especially after he madethatproposal. I feel because he was such an obvious target, it waters down information about a possible D1 rivaling scumwagon, because it could quite easily be townies finding a better target, rather than scum influence. Here is how it went next;
It's worth noting at this point that InflatablePie unvoted just before q21 tried to hammer Jacob. I'm not sure what to make of that mess, but it certainly was chaotic and worth factoring into consideration. Also, another point that needs referencing is my position on the wagon was between havingfitz and Gwynplaine, but shifted to last after I unvoted, revoted Jacob in a fake hammer gambit.
I must admit, I had preconceived thoughts on what I would find upon closer inspection of how the votes unfolded - and that was I'd find dsister in an ugly situation, but I can understand why it's possible his wagon fell away naturally, rather than with any scum motivation. I am quite wary of how quickly momentum shifted though, and smack in between myself and a confirmed townie is Gwynplaine, who seems to have a habit of being the tilt votes.
You'll note his position on the earlier Slepz wagon was around the same position, and if Dsister flips town at some point, I think this would be quite a damning revelation. His votes while not obviously poorly reasoned, were merely tagged on using previously held suspicions by others. I find it curious TheButtonmen has been his prime objector, which could be canny distancing, but it seems very unnecessary when nobody has been paying attention to Gwyn, and it doesn't strike me as his style. I'm quite comfortably declaring that those two won't be scum together, but I think one of them is.
I have more thoughts to come on players like havingfitz and q21, but at the moment, I would like to put a vote out in friendly competition of dsister's possible wagon;
Vote: TheButtonmen-
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Hoopla
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THANKS FOR THE SIDE-NOTE. I SCOFF AT YOUR SUGGESTION I'M FAKE CLAIMING, JUST AS I SCOFF AT YOUR INCREASINGLY BITTER DISPOSITION.Furry wrote: *Side note to Hoopla, if you are non-PGO town (ive seen a town PR fakeclaim PGO before), can you claim it please, this can be very useful.
Q21:I was more scared that someone was going to reference my Mini Normal game this year, where I fakeclaimed MILLER on Day 1 as scum. Fortunately that never came up for me though.
Unvote, vote: q21-
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Hoopla
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I feel really bitter. You ever have those seething moments of rage and envy and despair that totally consumes you? I never usually have anything other than a smile on my face, but I have been grinding my teeth and clenching my fists for the last half hour. I don't think it bodes well for mafia at all, when the only way to improve your chances at WINNING is to not be lynched, and I get lynched all the time
cvqrcvnlrw;nv
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vr\vm
which really pisses me off, because i have so many good thoughts, but i am very difficult to trust. i guess there will be a question why i'm posting now, and i don't know, but i have loose theories revolving around the grandiose idea of separating from the left hemisphere a little more, but i know i'm not really paying attention now
um
unvote, vote: thebuttonmen-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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It's hard to tell without knowing the other roles in the game - I suggest massclaim will help us largely in discovering how many mafia we have left. Let me just say, that 2:1:9's (27 up until Mini 930) are relatively rare compared to 3:1:8's (73 up until Mini 930), so my opinion is rooted largely in this fact.Nikanor wrote:Uggh.
yabba: Yes I saw everyone who received the PM. You have to use BCC now to get that same effect.
Hoopla, you said something yesterday about the possibility of three mafia. Do you still believe that now?
I'm not sure how much confidence others place in balance-type arguments, but I consider it one of my few areas of expertise. Who thinks massclaim is a worthwhile idea?-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla: PGO
Nikanor: Cop
Oso: VT
havingfitz: VT
InflatablePie: VT
Midnight's Sorrow: VT
Gwyplaine: VT
q21: ?
With Nikanor clearing q21, I'm very inclined to believe his claim. Two town PR's against four anti-town roles almost confirms them as town, because this is the minimum threshold you could possibly go to balance-wise in such a set-up. It's possible that we're playing in a 2:1:9 set-up, but cops don't usually fit that set-up. At the moment, I'd prefer q21 not to claim unless he has significant information that can improve lynch odds today. He is almost certain to town, and I'd rather use him as a trump card as opposed to making him claim now. I trust q21 has the capacity to deem the risk versus reward of claiming in this scenario.-
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Hoopla
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The introduction of the PGO role to Mini Normals is a more recent enterprise, although I only remember seeing 2-3 Mini Normal games with the PGO role - they're slightly more common in Large games, but even then, variants like Bomb and Supersaint are still used more often. So, any data involving that role is far too small a sample to gauge anything. Cop + SK is a far more usable piece of data - here is what I've found in 3:1:8 set-ups;havingfitz wrote:Hoopla...in your database of game setups...how often are there Cops included in games with SKs and or PGOs? Though my vote is on Nik...barring a counterclaim I am inclined to believe him.
Normally this would be jarringly conclusive evidence for the existance of the cop, but these statistics lie a little bit. From Mini 44 (where the records start) to about Mini 350, 3:1:8's were the most common set-up, which was a time-frame where cop was almost universally used, not just in 3:1:8's, but in all set-ups. It's only been the last 2-3 years where role variety has given mods enough options to avoid using cops and even doctors. For reference, here is the data dump;72 games
63 with a Town Cop
9 without a Cop
Mini 64 - Cop
Mini 82 - Cop
Mini 85 - Cop
Mini 97 - Cop
Mini 101 - Cop
Mini 108 - Cop
Mini 113 - Cop
Mini 124 - Cop
Mini 128 - Cop
Mini 133 - Cop
Mini 145 - Cop
Mini 149 - Cop
Mini 153 - Cop
Mini 159 - Cop
Mini 161 - Cop
Mini 166 - N/A
Mini 184 - Cop
Mini 187 - Cop
Mini 192 - Cop
Mini 201 - Cop
Mini 203 - Cop
Mini 209 - Cop
Mini 211 - Cop
Mini 217 - Cop
Mini 229 - Cop
Mini 235 - Cop
Mini 242 - Cop
Mini 254 - Cop
Mini 255 - Cop
Mini 262 - Cop
Mini 275 - Cop
Mini 280 - Cop
Mini 295 - Cop
Mini 297 - N/A
Mini 301 - Cop
Mini 307 - Cop
Mini 308 - Cop
Mini 342 - Cop
Mini 355 - Cop
Mini 358 - Cop
Mini 391 - Cop
Mini 414 - Cop
Mini 441 - Cop
Mini 451 - Cop
Mini 462 - Cop
Mini 474 - Cop
Mini 499 - Cop
Mini 501 - Cop
Mini 504 - Cop
Mini 506 - Cop
Mini 545 - Cop
Mini 553 - Cop
Mini 564 - N/A
Mini 585 - Cop
Mini 592 - Cop
Mini 608 - Cop
Minvitational 8 - Cop
Mini 618 - Cop
Minvitational 10 - N/A
Mini 662 - N/A
Mini 716 - N/A
Mini 722 - Cop
Mini 725 - Cop
Mini 735 - Cop
Mini 745 - Cop
Mini 781 - N/A
Mini 784 - Cop
Mini 802 - Cop
Mini 842 - N/A
Mini 844 - Cop
Mini 851 - N/A
Mini 905 - Cop
It's quite visible to the eye, the dwindling use of the 3:1:8 set-up. The gaps between numbers get larger and larger, whilst the gaps between N/A's for cops shrinks and shrinks. It's still weighted toward a cop being in a 3:1:8 set-up, but it's hard to determine the true chance based purely on stats, because the recent trend makes up only a small portion of the sample size.
A more convincing piece of evidence for Nikanor is from a balance perspective. The games without cops in this set were significantly offset with other power, such as trackers, watchers, vigs, gunsmiths, usually with 3-4 town power roles. I think you can get away with balancing 3:1:8's with only 2 town power roles, but they would need to be strong. And cops are strong.
Our scum team lies in the pool of vanillas.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Well, you're very wrong. Because unless you think Nikanor is fake-claiming, q21 is town.Oso wrote:
Strongly disagree here. The rest of the thread has claimed, best to get his as well. It's not like scum is going to be able to use his claim to eliminate a safe claim.Hoopla wrote:- snip -
At the moment, I'd prefer q21 not to claim unless he has significant information that can improve lynch odds today.
- snip -
The only benefits that come from q21 claiming is that we clear another player, or incriminate someone else as scum. If he can't do that now, he should not claim. He may have a role that has an ability to take away the certainty of scum's actions at night (read: roleblocker, doctor, 1-shot-vig, redirector etc.) - that is an advantage not worth parting with for no gain.
Tell me the benefits of q21 claiming. Saying he should claim because everyone else did isn't a reason.-
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Hoopla
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No, you've expressed an interest in wanting a claim from q21, and then 'strongly disagreed' with my rationale opposing the idea. To strongly disagree must mean you have some pro-town reasoning behind why q21 claiming is more beneficial than him not claiming. If your logic is one that required reservations, you shouldn't have been asking him to claim in the first place.Oso wrote:Don't make assumptions simply to give your brain a workout. My comment means exactly what it says, I reserve any further comment on the subject until we hear from q21. No more, no less.
After I know that, I may or may not take up the argument again.
I don't know if you're just biding your time, or you actually have a good reason for him to claim, but I'll eagerly await your comments. I dislike the clause at the end of your post, because I don't think you have a say whether or not the argument comes up - you have to explain why you strongly disagreed with me.-
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Hoopla
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I don't think I find you scummy for this, because you sound sincere in your arguments, but your logic is flawed or we understand each other differently, and I am trying to point out why, so the town doesn't make a suboptimal move. For those following this debate, Oso's second paragraph (see bolded) pretty much sums up his position in my mind, and I will counter that.Oso wrote:No I don't. If you think the reason that I did that is scummy, then by all means, convince the rest of the thread that is so and have me lynched. But I certainly don't have to explain my reasoning to the person who first advanced the idea of a mass claim and then tries to stop it one short of an actual mass claim. q21 is the only person right now that has the standing to object to his RCing as I see it.
The mass claim was suggested, he voted Nik, and as far as I can see he may not even have been on since since the MassRC sort of spontaneously happened. I modified my position after I thought on that.If he claims, argument over. If not and he advances good reasons why he feels it is not in the town's best interest for him to RC, I'll take those into consideration before I decide to continue my argument or not.
You say thatheneeds to advance reasons why him not claiming is beneficial for the town, and if he claims, that's fine. Usually in a game, the two options all players have at all times is claiming and not claiming. Claiming once done, isn't reversable. Not claiming is. Therefore one 'claiming' must provide reasons why it is more protown for her to claim than stay quiet.
And I think I know how this misunderstanding started. You're operating under the guise that since we are massclaiming, this is now the functional, default option thatreversesthe 'claiming/not claiming' option. Claiming now becomes the default in a massclaim, and you must provide reason against this not to claim. Right? I'm not misrepresenting you here?
When you consider what massclaim aims to do - hopefully confirm people as town or scum, or at least give hints either way on your own (or others) alignment, it doesn't make sense for q21 to claim, because we have already confirmed him as town. I think I followed this logical path without really acknowledging it in my arguments. So, unless he can give reasonable insight into anyone elses alignment from his role information, there is no reason for him to claim, because we gain nothing.-
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Hoopla
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I have some pretty damning evidence against Gwynplaine here guys. Here are the vote counts from the first two days. I've gone to the liberty of greening the name of Nikanor, q21 and Hoopla on these vote counts, as we are all quite likely town. If you want to debate this with me, do it now, because I am making assumptions based on this information.
DAY 2
Looking at the vote counts on Day 1, we've really got a lot of names filled in now. The Page 8 count showcases the first time Gwynplaine makes a 'tilt' vote in this game. A vote which pushes one into the probability of being lynched or forced to claim. It's quite a safe vote from a scum perspective too, as there has been no other mafia there, so there isn't the fear of being tied with other scumbuddies. I'm becoming increasingly confident Midnight is town if Gwynplaine is scum, mostly because Gwyn constantly pushes this wagon throughout the game.
Most damaging to Gwyn is the Page 13 vote count. Just look how scum-driven that Buttonmen wagon is - three unconfirmed players all in a row. There is almost no way from a probabilistic and behavioural perspective that all of these players are scum. Scum would have had tospecificallyplan to jump on in a row like this as some sort of bizarre distancing, and I cannot see those three players doing that. It is quite rare to see a scumteam put all their eggs in one basket and go back to back on the same wagon (especially early), and I've only ever seen it once in a Large Normal in an experienced scumteam that deliberately planned for it. I've talked about this before, but scum have a collective conciousness that subliminally registers their partners suspicions, and have tendancies to err towards a 'good cop/bad cop' mentality. It's a subconciousness sort of distancing, because they fear being linked too easily with one another. Very often when a big topic or large wagon forms, scum will be very careful to differ from at least one of their partners.
This heavily incriminates Gwyn - because he is on a rival wagon, and if my theory about Midnight being town is right, it pins two scum on the Buttonman lynch, which is what I expect. I'm very confident that Gwyn is scum, and am currently favouring havingfitz/InflatablePie as his teammates.
I hope everyone takes a look over these voting patterns though, because they are quite illuminating.-
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Hoopla
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Here's another good reason. He is the definition of 'flying under the radar'.InflatablePie wrote: I like MS as an alternative -mostly because I can barely remember one of Gwyn's postsand I highly doubt Oso is scum. So for the four 'nillas, I'd go fitz > MS >= Gwyn > Oso.
I'll check Gwyn out in ISO when I get the chance, so I can make a more definitive stance on the middle two.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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We're probably still in mylo. I'd rather not see these votes out so soon, so put them away. It's obvious now that the mafia has a roleblocker - which should make it obvious that myself and Nikanor are truthful about our roles, unless anyone can justify 3-4 scum against one town power role.
My gut is saying InflatablePie is the best choice today, but I'm not going to commit to anything yet.-
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Hoopla
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Well, MS is less likely to be a realistic suspect based on Gwyn's interactions with him. That would be some pretty impressive bussing/distancing that I don't think either of them are capable of. Especially on Day 2, Gwyn's attack on MS seems like an obvious tactic to avoid being on the leading townie wagon, while his buddies push it. When you consider the likelihood of the Buttonmen lynch going through, it would be a needless risk to set your scumbuddy up as the competing bandwagon.Nikanor wrote:MSisstill a viable suspect. I got no result when I tried to inspect MS.
I'm quite confident that MS is town.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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This makes me a little antsy for some reason - surely Pie must know Gwyn is going down at this point, but why would he set up havingfitz with Gwyn if Pie/fitz is the scum team? It looks more like Pie-scum manipulating the situation than anything else. This fear is quanitified by the way he has come out today and attacked havingfitzInflatablePie wrote: Hoopla's case with the votals is a convincing one. And a fitz/Gwyn team would make sense, since fitz seemingly isn't willing to vote for Gwyn at the moment. Although to be fair, I'm not on the Gwynwagon either, so I can see how she'd pick me as a possible partner, too.
Although, on the other hand, Gwyn has picked up a lot of votes very quickly. This is most likely due to the fact that all these people think Gwyn is scum, but it's worth noting if Gwyn flips town.
I'll wait for a defense before (possibly) casting the hammer.andMS, who is a town read. It also looks like Pie is leaving the door open to back out of Gwyn suspicion if Gwyn makes a good post, or someone else defends him - this is classic late-bandwagon buddy behaviour, trying to keep the options open whilelookinglike he is in favour of the lynch.
Having said that, this worries me too - a post by fitz early on Day 3 before the massclaim;
Nikanor is virtually confirmed town now, and at the time was probably considered a main suspect - which is a double-edged sword really. Despite looking as if scum are forcing a mislynch on a townie, it's also understandable when you consider the general suspicion around Nikanor at the time. I think the key to this post is how he disregards suspicion of me, and hastily pushes elsewhere, as if the mind just suddenly changes so liberally. It makes sense from a scum perspective that he was trying to lynch me on Day 1/2 because I pose such a threat to scum if I get confirmed/look pro-town enough not be lynched, but then realises that if scum get a mislynch on Day 3, it is a clever way to evade the problem of a PGO, because they effectively endgame me with 3 scum alive.havingfitz wrote:I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element. TBM and Furry on Nikanor (may they rest in peace) coupled with the quick vote on TBM by Nik before TBM could claim...and not providing any case on TBM after waiting for me to provide mine.....has Nikanor atop my scum list.
Vote Nikanor-
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Hoopla
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I will be V/LA until about Tuesday, unfortunately. I will be able to put in a few posts during that time, but I need to wait until then to have a proper reread. Please nobody push a lynch today - I want to have a good say in it, because I think we can break it open now that we've got a scum down.Infact, I'd ask everyone to unvote right now, because bandwagons aren't necessary or good in anyway in mylo.Lets decide on a lynch first.-
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Hoopla
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Final thoughts before I go to work;
- InflatablePie is probably scum.
- havingfitz is probably not scum with InflatablePie, but is almost certainly scum if InflatablePie isn't.
- Oso is InflatablePie's likeliest scum partner by way of process of elimination, but I have to reread this pairing before I make a definitive judgment on this.
- Midnight's Sorrow is probably not scum, but if he is, his likeliest partner is InflatablePie, although I see that as less likely than Pie/Oso.
Please don't lynch havingfitz while I'm not here - I don't think he is the right choice. Nikanor, you should be listening to me, you ought to trust me by now.-
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Hoopla
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Nope, three player scum team. Why you ask? Because of your role and mine. That would be insanely unfair for the mafia to be up against a cop, PGONikanor wrote:Vote: havingfitz.
Why not?
We're probably looking at a scumteam of uno now.andan SK, with only a goon and a roleblocker. One cop investigation, SK kill or incorrect nightkill, or even a lucky Day 1 lynch wipes out half the scumteam. How is that fair? Cops are sucky roles in 2:1:9's, because then if you have a Godfather, the cop has only one possible target to find - what's the point? But then of course, there can't be a GF in a 2-player team if a roleblocker exists. There's no way it was 2-player scumteam. Cops are too powerful to be in 2:1:9's, and that's not even taking my role into account.
It must be made known, there are two scum, and we are in mylo. Sorry Nikanor.-
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Hoopla
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Except for the bit about it being mylo. I'm surprised you're this careless to not know there won't be any other lynches if we're wrong today - but then again, Epicmafia solves that riddle.InflatablePie wrote:If for some ungodly reason he does not flip scum, I have a feeling I'll get lynched next, since him and I are the two prime suspects today.-
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Hoopla
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Yeah, I know it's sort of a rehashed question. I suppose my point was this time that I'd unearthed a better motive for you to do this - and that was because if scum-you could get a mislynch Day 3, you wouldn't need to worry about the PGO problem any more.havingfitz wrote:I already addressed this yesterday:
As I said...it was not a sudden change on D3. You only came up once iirc as an afterthought on D2 as the focus for most people, including yourself, was TBM. After two completed days tbh your claim had faded a bit due to the scummy play of others. It's still in the back of my mind and I'll be pissed if you wind up scum but I'd rather focus on 2 out of 3 (IP, Oso, MS) than 2 out of 4.havingfitz wrote:
I didn't really give you much thought yesterday as I carried my D1 vote/suspicions over to D2 up through his lynch.Hoopla wrote:
You could have assumed this yesterday. Why did this sudden change of heart come about today?havingfitz wrote:I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element.
I don't think it's a major point, mostly something that is playing on my mind.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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I stated I would have limited access until Tuesday, but I have a little bit of time now for a post or two. I'd still prefer to wait until then so I can become surer in my opinions, but InflatablePie is likely where I would rest my vote.yabbaguy wrote:Sending massprod (sans havingfitz). A preemptive strike for some, but seeing as its 3 hours early at most, and I won't be awake by then, I'm doing it now.-
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Hoopla
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Hoopla
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