Mini 973: "Bawhston" Brawl (WHAT A WIN!)

[Hoopla]

Claim:

Paranoid Gun Owner

Discuss.

[Hoopla]

Everyone target Hoopla tonight

gg

Hope your joking - although I wouldn't be surprised.

[Hoopla]

Props to Hoopla for getting us out of the RVS in Post 5. If she really is a PGO, then claiming early on Day 1 might be the right thing to do.

It is true, and I am happy to share my motivation for claiming in my first post, but I have a vested interest in seeing others' reactions and thoughts first. Reckoner's trying to object, I think. I don't really know. But it would be more helpful for me if he went through the logic in his head right about now. I'm a little disappointed at those that have opted to random vote when I've offered an actual talking point.

Vote: Reckoner

[Hoopla]

And since we are out of the RVS it seems,

Unvote

You know, this is the single most annoying thing that someone can say in a mafia game. It is absolutely redundant and doesn't push the game forward in any way. If there are no more random events taking place, surely you must have some reads either way on someone (or something) to lay down a serious or semi-serious vote. If you can't do that, then you're still in the RVS. There is no reason outside of lylo for you to not be voting.

Also Oso. Way to STILL fail to address or react to the claim

Unfortunately for the both of us I think, you will get no in-depth reaction from me on Hoopla's claim other than this:

Whatever she is doing, it is rather ballsy but there is no context yet for me to put it into the perspective of pro-town or anti-town. There is obviously some direction she is going with it but the direction is not clear to me. The best thing for me to do, at least in my opinion, being that it is early in the game and we have had only half the player's chime in here, is to get out of her way to do whatever it is she is going to do.

Her RC is going to be center stage for most of this game day I'm thinking and there should be a whole wealth of information on the players that can be gathered today to be used in context later in the day and later in the game.

To answer your point as to why I random voted after Hoopla's RC it is because I am more interested in seeing others reactions to her than I am about being worried if I am coming off pro-town or scummy.

This post rubs me the wrong way too - it's rife with useless spin and fluff, and does nothing to address my roleclaim, despite the post being about it completely. The last paragraph is most troubling, as it attempts to push responsibility off himself and onto others, which sucks when you consider the rest of his post is just fluff.

Unvote, vote: Oso

. Get an opinion if you think we're out of the RVS.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: havingfitz

[Hoopla]

Since everyone has responded in some way or another to my claim, it's time to divulge some of my motivation for claiming.

When I initially got the role, I was excited for the potential to wipe out a scumteam with hyper-protown play, but along with it carries an extreme risk of eliminating multiple town powerroles (possibly more than one a night), so the decision for me was weighing up the likelihood of taking out enough scum to counteract any town PR's I take out, and it isn't favourable.

Assuming we're in a 3:9 game (the most common variation in Mini Normals), these games are usually offset by 3-4 town power roles vs. 0-1 scum powerroles, which means if all actions are still in play N1, I have a significantly higher chance of killing town than scum. You also must note, that if scum did choose to kill me N1, they only take one hit, as they won't be able to target me again. The town runs the risk of multiple roles killing me over multiple days, as they are all separate entities. I think I am the sort of player that is a good N1 target for PR's too.

Another weighting factor was my personal distaste for the so called RVS. This claim forces scum to switch on immediately and consider their stances, which immediately draws out information. I have a pretty decent catalogue of expected tells I can draw from this experience, because unlike the RVS, an early claim like separates town and scum player's motivations significantly.

If my role is true, and I can manage to convince the players here I am town, I can be a ridiculously powerful weapon against scum. Town doesn't know if I am truthful or not, though. Scum does. Which provides ample information for early on D1, because scum's natural position will be somewhere from in the middle to pro-policy lynch, because they cannot afford to keep me alive. havingfitz and possibly someone like q21 are good character models for what I expected from scum, and would make delicious D1 lynches (from my perspective).

If anyone has any explicit questions about my role/decision, feel free to ask. I'm going to be combing through some of the earlier posts in a bit more detail now, so expect more from me soon.

[Hoopla]

So in summary, I admit fitz's behavior seems a bit scummy, but I feel that a PGO is too big a risk. If it were possible to confirm through investigation it would be a great town asset, but as it is not I feel Hoopla is the best lynch choice.

Hello Slepz, allow me to point out the fundamental flaws in your argument. As a town, we generally have only three mislynches before we lose the game, unless there is a 2-player scumteam, or we manage to make a mafia kill at night, or protect a townie from a scum kill. Three mislynches is ridiculously low when you think about it - the first one is used Day 1 with limited information, get the second one wrong and you're in mylo! Do you seriously think we're going to be able to confirm every player in this game, or even two? Every player we choose not to lynch (and there needs to be many) is a risk if they aren't confirmed.

You are using the 'WELL, SHE COULD BE' logic, that applies to EVERYONE on day 1. The fact I have claimed a role doesn't alter this - this is what policy lynches are. They are lynches that don't hit scum more often than not. If you think I am more likely to be fakeclaiming, then that is a scumtell and I'd appreciate you explaining your reasons why my claim is likelier to be fake.

If you are only in this for the policy lynch, explain why this is a good option in a game with so few chances to lynch scum.

[Hoopla]

Some thoughts on everyone's play so far;

Furry

I like his reaction to my claim - I appreciate the awkwardness of me believing him because he believes me, but this is exactly the stance scum would not make. Or at the very best, only one of the scumteam would make so they still had a chance to push my wagon. Furry has been proactive and sensible in his reads though and should I ever die in this game, my town flip would strongly suggest Furry is town too.

Gwynplaine

Tough to figure out - his first post leans toward a town read on me, but still leaves the option open to switch if things picked up. My read of him improved when he attacked Slepz, who is the biggest advocate for a policy lynch this game.

havingfitz

He is my pick for lynch today. He's dropped the most information about his alignment than anyone else, and I am liking the personnel in favour of this lynch, which makes me feel better about it. He initially didn't respond directly to my claim, which I interpret as a loose scum team. I imagine town players would be dazzled/confused/intrigued enough to comment on it, whereas ignoral of such a detail indicates belief, but is not sure how to react to it.

Fishing for the policy lynch is his biggest crime - it's as if he's testing the waters for supporters of a Hoopla wagon without getting his hands dirty himself. His opinions have slowly morphed towards policy lynch, even if he doesn't recognise it as that.

InflatablePie

To be honest, I hadn't followed too many of his posts to remember the stances he took, and I still can't get much of a read either way. His initial impression of my claim is a viable response from town or scum, and even his follow up posts are hard to gauge. His analysis has been minimal, but logical enough to not warrant any suspicion. Unsure.

JacobSavage

Has posted next to nothing. His first actual 'content' post, if you can call it that, was uninformative and didn't take any major stances, or even reference any of the major events. Need to hear a lot more from him soon, though.

Nikanor

Liking his play so far - it's been minimal, but he's raised decent points each time, and also doesn't fit in with my theory of scum being open to or pushing a policy lynch on me. Probably town from my perspective.

Oso

Started out poorly, ignoring my claim and then sitting on the fence, but I can't help get town vibes from his play. It seems like genuine uncertainty, even if it isn't the correct play to wallow in it, rather than taking a stance based on logic or gut. His logic about him waiting back so he can analyse everyone's reactions is also flawed, but still has an innocent air about it. I'm not sure about him passing his vote on to me though, that seems like a way to avoid responsibility.

I'm okay with Oso being around though, because he seems like a pretty readable player. His case on Radical Hijinx is quite decent too.

q21

I'm mostly skeptical about his play, because I know he is cagey and capable of producing rational, logical cases as either alignment. I haven't played with him in a while, so it's possible my meta is outdated or skewed by poor memory, but he seems to favour rationality over gut, and find loopholes and pieces of logic that fit together, which I know is very doable for him as either alignment.

His entry into the game was the sketchiest moment for me. He opted for a safe vote on Oso, questioning his obviously anti-town style of sitting back waiting for reactions, but q21 himself didn't offer much of an opinion either way. The following couple of posts seem hollow - an enquiry into Nikanor's playstyle, an explanation of PGO's and an offhand comment to Furry. It's like he's around a lot, but hasn't given much, when I would have expected him to get his hands a bit dirtier. I especially expected him to question me a bit more, but at the moment he doesn't look like he's trying to discover people's alignments, which isn't how I remember q21.

Radical Hijinx

Difficult case really - his first post after my claim advocating a policy lynch is a scum tell to me, but the way he pursued other opinions on the claim, and grilled those who ignored it seemed genuine. It could be a case of forcing the suspicion on to these players to take attention off his scum-favouring stance, but I'm not convinced he is scum. I don't expect scum to back down from the policy lynch stance after it was pointed out as potentially scummy. Him leaving his vote on me is odd, possibly wreckless, but I don't think it's there as a devious way to grow my wagon.

Slepz

I'm not digging his reaction to the claim - he is the one most in favour of a policy lynch. The logic seems to be, 'well, it isn't confirmable, she must be lynched!', which is flawed because you'll never be able to confirm many players in the game. You're always taking a risk with whoever you choose not to kill. The fact he has no interest in analysing my play and trying to figure out my alignment isn't good play, and if he really wants to sit on his hands and sport this policy, he needs to justify why a lynch on me is beneficial to the town in the long run.

xRECKONERx

I wasn't really digging the jokey posts at first, but he has turned it around with his logical butchering of Slepz' post, which makes me feel better about him. I have no immediate concerns with Reck, because I don't think he is the sort of character deliberately trying to avoid making a stance.

[Hoopla]

For reference, here is a visual interpretation of how I see the views toward my claim. I am speaking from a confirmed town perspective, so it doesn't include the possibility of me being scum. This is more a if/when I flip thing, so you can understand Day 1's reactions a little better.



This isn't exactly to scale, as I don't expect scum to be twice as likely to be pro-policy lynch, but it might be close. The point I wanted to show, is that while town uncertainty leaves them open to land anywhere in the spectrum, scum have a vested interest in not finding me town, and making sure I am lynched at some point, which is why those who find me very town right now, do not feel like scum to me, because it seems like the unnatural or even damaging stance for scum to take.

This obviously opens up problems if I am not town, as it looks like I am just siding with anyone who thinks I am town. But I hope lynching a couple of scumbags early from the analysis of reactions to my claim will be enough to not warrant me needing to be lynched. But I reiterate, this is more a if/when I flip town thing, or if you think I am town now and want to understand what I am seeing.

[Hoopla]

@All

Sorry, I am only just keeping up what with exams and the such like anyway.

I cant quite get out of my head that Oso is scum and Fitz is his partner?

I dont know..

If this is to be an ongoing theme in your play, I'd prefer you cut your losses and replaced out now. Because it will be more damaging in the long run for the town, if you just stagger along and replace out in a week or two, rather than now. If you want to play on, you must promise you're going to lift your tempo relatively soon (ie; now), because it sucks having an empty slot in the game.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla...your suspicions towards me amount to nothing more than OMGUS reasoning and the dreaded policy lynch fishing is a load of crap. I was asking for clarification. <snip>

What do you think the right decision is if you were dealt the hand of PGO?

I consider claiming it a little like insurance - you can run the risk that no town PR's will hit you, and they might not. You might be lynched, or NK'ed by anti-town faction first, and that is a positive result. But if it goes wrong, it really goes wrong and I have the power to wipe out multiple town PR's, which has the ugly image of looking like 3rd party/mafia if I were to then claim. Claiming Day 1 prevents the best and worst case scenarios, which is more beneficial to town when the worst case scenarios are more powerful/likely than the best case scenarios.

Policy lynches contribute to town losses in the long run, because they are based on policy as opposed to any genuine scumhunting. It means at best, the lynch will be random (that is if you assume scum isn't the ones pushing policy lynches), and when you only have three mislynches in a Mini Normal, it hurts a lot if you're wrong. You should be able to assess my play and find things I am doing to be more town or scum motivated, rather than just policy.

[Hoopla]

Hey q21. Where have you been the last year anyway?

[Hoopla]

WAIT, WHY HAS THE HAVINGFITZ WAGON DISINTERGRATED?

UNVOTE, VOTE: SLEPZ

[Hoopla]

WAIT, WHY HAS THE HAVINGFITZ WAGON DISINTERGRATED?

UNVOTE, VOTE: SLEPZ

Complains about the disintegration of the fitz wagon... and then continues that disintegration with a second reasonless vote of the game. Your words contradict your actions. fitz's analysis of you - which is beginning to move his vote away from unadmitted policy lynch - is starting to look like it has a point.

Nice catch! But I'm not going to keep my vote somewhere it won't have an effect. Slepz isn't far behind due to stubborn stance on policy lynching. I'm hoping if we can catch scum early in anti-Hoopla positions, it will make my position look a bit tidier.

What's up with the Jacob/Nikanor deal thing? I don't believe the setting up of lynches thing, mostly because it's just two players, and because it's so blatant. I can safely say, that they're both not scum together, and probably not even scum individually. Seems like a stupid move.

Can we get on with this?

[Hoopla]

Slepz and JacobSavage should be competing for the rest of the votes today. Time to turn this into a two-horse race.

[Hoopla]

Slepz and JacobSavage should be competing for the rest of the votes today. Time to turn this into a two-horse race.

Im down with this. Want to join JS wagon instead though?

Okay.

Unvote, vote: JacobSavage

I think I like the delicately poised position of 4-4 more than 5-3 anyway. It amplifies the upcoming votes that will tilt these wagons either way, and means that anyone that wants something other than these two options really has to work hard to get it.

[Hoopla]

Hammertime;

Unvote, vote: jacob

Because his claim sucks. Like woah. Unlimited vig with a PGO I can't really see, that's a lot of potential nightkills, if I hadn't claimed it could have been more than 3. Final thoughts Jacob? Fast, before the mod gets in.

[Hoopla]

Oso, I think you misunderstand how a PGO works. All actions on me succeed, however I still kill whoever targets me, indiscriminately. A scum or vig kill still kills me, but I kill them too.

This is irrelevant now as Jacob is dead anyway.

[Hoopla]

On the unlikely chance Jacob is town, he needs to get in quick to give his final reads.

[Hoopla]

Way to ruin it yabba.

[Hoopla]

The Paranoid Gun Owner, similar to the Army Veteran, involuntarily kills anyone who targets him during the night, regardless of alignment. He can be a liability to the Town for this reason, as he indiscriminately kills Cops, Doctors, etc. He can not choose to kill.

@Hoopla, I assumed that the PGO lived through the attempt since it didn't specifically address being targeted by a killing role. My assumption was that the PGO preempted any target attempts. But in all honesty, this is the only game I have been in that even had a claim of PGO in it, so my experience with the role is exactly zero.

So I'll take your word for it unless someone else has some input on it.

All kills resolve simultaneously unless interfered with in some other way. It's just like if a vig killed a scum, and that scum killed the vig. They'd both die, even though it doesn't really make sense flavour-wise. My role is basically a vig that kills anyone that tries to do something to me. That something still affects me, but I kill them.

[Hoopla]

I think the vig-directing plan is flawed. I'll point out my reasoning:

Assuming the claim is true, it is quite likely that scum has some powerrole to counteract this, because unlimited vig is debatably one of the most powerful, game-changing roles the town can have. Think Roleblocker, Bus-Driver, Redirector - if any of these roles exist (or essentially any scum role that has the ability to manipulate), then our results will be flawed, as scum can direct traffic or frame someone for the next lynch based on what they stop/change at night. And it is a real possibility it could happen.

But lets look at it from all the possible angles. I'll even include the possibility of me being scum to create an objective post, from the eye of the onlooker;

1)

Hoopla Scum

,

Jacob Town

Well, if this is the case, you should hardly be trusting what I say. So, I'll try to dispute this possibility by being as logical as I can in my position, and showcasing what could happen if this was the case. This is a troubling scenario for town, as my claim, whilst not being universally believed, is quite close to it. Jacob killing me (or any other variant) would be a favourable outcome in this circumstance.

But as I explained before, the likelihood of a manipulation role is quite high (especially in conjunction with a vig). To help accentuate my point, I checked through the last 40 Closed 3:9 Mini Normals, and 25 of them contained a Mafia Roleblocker/Jailkeeper, which is stark odds when you're entrusting a direction style plan to prove/disprove someone.

In this instance, if the town decided to direct Jacob to me, I surely would use my team roleblocker to counteract this ploy (if one exists). If the town were to decide to direct the kill on someone town, surely we would leave him be and reap the favourable benefits of a double town kill. Even though this would prove Jacob's killing ability, there would still be grave concerns about him possibly being a SK.

This is the only real scenario where directing the vigilante kill makes sense. However, it is hampered by dim odds of this being the mix of alignments between I and Jacob, and also the reliance on there not being a scum manipulation role. I hardly think this is a worthwhile chance, and I'm not just arguing this because I am a possible candidate.

Even jacob suiciding is prone to scum manipulation. Assume, safely, that scum has a roleblocker, would it not be in their interest to block a vigilante suicide? They get the glory of killing a townie elsewhere Night 1, set-up a Jacob mislynch tomorrow and get through to Day 3, quite likely untouched, which might I remind you would be mylo.

2)

Hoopla Town

,

Jacob Scum

From my biased perspective, this is the likeliest scenario, although I expect convincing the rest of you should remain harder. The worry with directing the vig kill in this instance is there isn't a kill to direct. Ordinarily we would assume the result of only one kill going through should prove Jacob as scum, but it is not even close to doing so. One night kill could mean that Jacob isn't a vig, but it also could mean scum have a roleblocker and we're in scenario 1, it could mean scum are no-killing to use Jacob's kill and incriminate him at the same time. Or it could be any other number of potential role interactions or gambits.

The bottom line is, one-kill tonight, especially if myself and Jacob are alive tomorrow is a detrimental situation. As it means we're in the same situation as today, but having settled for a sub-optimal lynch yesterday, and then the loss of a townie at night. This is a real possibility if we go down the route of directing the vig kill, and I believe this is a more damaging scenario than any benefits that could be gleaned from this plan.

We've a far better chance of succeeding if we take a risk today on Jacob, or myself, if need be (although I could never endorse this from a personal perspective).

3)

Hoopla Town

,

Jacob Town

Possible, but unlikely. It's been said before, but this would be chaos in a Mini Normal. I've seen some swingy Mini Normal set-ups before, but I think yabba is sensible enough not to go down that route.

In the unlikely situation this is true, scum would be licking their chops with delight, getting rid of one (or two) of the powerroles that could prove most damaging to their success.

4)

Hoopla Scum

,

Jacob Scum

Well, this would have to be an extremely adventurous gambit to go for such distancing. But if this scenario is true, how can you go wrong with lynching one of us today?

---

There remains plenty of other options if you include the possibility of a SK, but listing all those combinations would be time consuming and I doubt people would read them. Suffice to say, myself and Jacob do have claims decently suited to a would-be SK, and if so, going with the vig-directing plan is likely to fail. We must assume that SK's in Mini Normal's (and in general) are likely to have at least one-shot-bullet protection (possibly unlimited). I don't have the data on this, but it's rare to see a Vanilla SK.

This provides another obstacle in any directing plan, as the introduction of a possibly BP player improves the odds of a one-kill night, which yields no information if we're both alive.

In conclusion, I'm of the opinion we should be lynching one of myself and Jacob, as there is a real chance one of us is scum, or (seemingly) worst-case scenario, a SK. We have no real reason to stall with frivolous plans rife with possible manipulations. Seriously, it won't be a positive result for town.

[Hoopla]

It should be noted, that although my 'hammer' on Jacob was deliberately faked in an attempt to gauge reactions and hopefully get a confession from Jacob, q21's 'hammer' was real.

What's most striking to me is the little time q21 used to mull over the claim, let other people have their say, or even question Jacob. It was a mere 90 minutes from claim to hammer, with only a couple of posts in between. I'm not sure whether this is what I would expect from q21 as scum, as knowingly restricting such information, and knowingly hammering someone not-mafia would incriminate himself badly. It stands to reason if he were scum, his motivation for hammering Jacob would be fear of his role's power. This leads me to the belief that if q21 is scum, then the scumteam

doesn't

have a power capable of manipulating/stopping the vig kill.

An alternate theory could be the protection of a q21/Slepz scumpair, something I could reasonably believe, as surely if/when (q21 wasn't to know) the Jacob wagon fell away, Slepz was next in line, which is another scum motivation for such a quick hammer. This is obviously dependent on another player being scum, so it's difficult to believe now, but it might be a handy point in a case later in the game with confirmed alignments on one of those two.

I'm not sure the town motivation for q21's hammer - I've always envisioned him as a sensible, logical player, not prone to blind impulsive decisions. It's possible this meta is stale as he has had a year out of the game, but from what I've seen this game, he doesn't seem to have changed. But I'm convinced q21

must

have known this would look very bad for himself if he were scum, that I find myself wifom'ing out of this read. It's obvious q21 isn't scum with Jacob though.

---

q21

, can you explain your reasoning for 'hammering' Jacob in a little more depth? I'm finding it hard to understand why on earth you would do it so quickly, rather than waiting for other reactions first. Were you afraid the wagon would fall away?

[Hoopla]

@ Furry - As I have focused on both of them today it would be easy to say I think they are both scum. I'm not sure though. I think one of them definitely but JS's claim has muddied things for me. If he is telling the truth though he is a prime target for the NK so as I pointed out earlier....and as Hoopla elaborated on...I think the best solution would be for JS to target Hoopla tonight and go for the lynch of whomever is next highest on everyone's list's (which for me is TBM).

What the hell? I never elaborated or advocated JS to target me tonight. My

whole

post was violently dismantling the logic behind directing the vig kill, because it is dependent on scum not having a manipulation role (unlikely) and Jason being town (unlikely). If Jason is mafia, there will be one kill tonight and we will gain zero extra information for tomorrow and be worse off with less townies.

The only way this plan has a chance of working is if Jacob is town, which, when you take into account the complications of a possible SK, leaves such slim odds of success, it is suboptimal to try to lynch anyone other than our scummier player today.

Besides, if you think at least one of us is scum, you're doing yourself an extreme disservice if you're town, because you're not taking a 50% (or better) chance of hitting scum

now

. Then you don't have to worry about convoluted plans and worst-case scenarios of a one-death night, nor do you need to worry about lynching from a pool of 10 other players where presumably there is one or two scum at most.

In conclusion, don't paint me as an architect for directing the vig kill, when it's the exact opposite to what I am saying.

[Hoopla]

Were you afraid the wagon would fall away?

Don't ask him a question and then give him an out like this.

It isn't an out - if anything it's incriminating. If he was predicting he only had a brief chance to hammer, he's acting against the collective view of the town, making a decision based on what he wants, rather than what the town wants.

If he didn't think the town would change their mind, then he had no reason to drop the hammer so quickly and lose vital reactions to his claim. Remember, he tried to hammer after only one other person talked of their view on the claim, when the reason Jacob was at L-1 was for his play prior to that.

[Hoopla]

I can already here you shouting, "But discussion is important!" It is, but lets be honest here, what exactly has the last two pages of discussion achieved? Not much. This exchange, dealing with the unusual speed of my hammer, is the first real point of interest to come out of the last few pages. If my hammer had been successful we could just as easily be having this discussion tomorrow. (That of course presupposes that I would still be alive.

For what it's worth, I passionately endorse speedier games. Too often towns mess around in semantic debates instead of making compromises and pushing the game forward. The human mind has a finite capacity of information it is capable of absorbing and accurately analysing, and it is a lot less than people think in a game of mafia. Day 1 is the hardest time, because you're operating with very little information - and lets be honest, the chances of hitting scum are close to random (or worse).

Day 1

should

be used to generate information, to increase the likelihood of lynching scum in future days. That doesn't mean lynch

anyone

now - information is derived from people making definitive stances as well as compromises. But the worst thing we can do is string out Day 1 to the point where it becomes a chore to read in furture days, because all this 'information' we have been banking doesn't get reread as well as what a 8-10 page Day 1 might be.

This doesn't apply to your hammer though, as a player claiming is a major event in the game. I'm not completely sold on your motives, but I'm in favour of lynching Jacob too, so I'm not too concerned about you until we see a card flip.

[Hoopla]

We can prove his role in one way or another. In this case, Jacob can be tied to a kill.

I guess it's only semi-provable outside of kill flavor since he could be an SK.

That's assuming scum don't have a roleblocker, or Jacob isn't mafia. Even then, the

best-case

scenario is Jacob proves he is capable of killing. That confirms an ability, not an alignment. The (likely) worst-case scenario is we come out of Night 1 with one kill, which proves NOTHING, and we've made a sub-optimal lynch Day 1, and then have to waste the Day 2 lynch on him or me.

Seriously, those living in the fantasy world of being able to 'prove' Jacob need to wake up and realise you'll just be delaying the inevitable - his lynch. The later it happens, the worse it will be for the town.

[Hoopla]

Hoping for a mafia flip, although gut is giving me weird SK vibes for some reason. It does seem like an unusual mafia claim, in it would only give him an extra day or two or at the most, which runs against normal fakeclaims that seek to last throughout the game, or at least draw out a powerrole like cop.

Having said that, Day 1 lynches frequently end up on weaker players who either give little thought to the game, or don't know understand what makes a good fakeclaim. I've seen too many Vanilla Townie claims from scum to be convinced most Day 1 lynchees aren't using the most the rational approach. I'll be dazzled if Jacob flips vig.

[Hoopla]

Quite likely we're playing in a 3:1:8 rather than a 2:1:9 I would say, which means yesterday's lynch of a SK is the equivalent of a town mislynch in a 3:9 set-up. For wagon analysis, it's probably simpler that we assume Jacob was town, because anyone not mafia is all the same to them, which is the information we're trying to unturn.

I'm a little worried with how quickly Slepz/Dsister's wagon fell away in favour of Jacob. It seemed as if he were frozen on 5 votes for a long time, whilst Jacob had no trouble overcoming that milestone. So, lets look at the vote counts and some of the reasons why it may have unfolded this way;

Page 7 Vote Count:

Slepz (3):

xRECKONERx

,

JacobSavage

, Nikanor
TheButtonmen (3): Oso, q21, InflatablePie
Hoopla (2): Slepz, havingfitz
Gwynplaine (1): TheButtonmen
havingfitz (1): Hoopla

JacobSavage

(1): Gwynplaine

Nonvoters: Furry

Page 8 Vote Count:

Slepz (5):

xRECKONERx

,

JacobSavage

, Nikanor, Hoopla, Gwynplaine
TheButtonmen (3): Oso, q21, InflatablePie
Hoopla (2): Slepz, havingfitz
Gwynplaine (1): TheButtonmen

Nonvoters: Furry

Page 8.5 Vote Count:

Slepz (5):

xRECKONERx

, Nikanor, Hoopla, Gwynplaine,

JacobSavage

TheButtonmen (3): Oso, q21, InflatablePie
Hoopla (2): Slepz, havingfitz
Gwynplaine (1): TheButtonmen

JacobSavage

(1): Furry

It's at this point Slepz briefly gets to L-1 with Jacob's vote. However, it quickly unravels due to Jacob setting up a deal with Nikanor to lynch someone he doesn't think is scum. Although exaggerated, it was a decently scummy move by Jacob. I myself, was also part of this seachange, shifting momentum to Jacob, but I can't help but feel uneasy in how quickly it all happened.

When you consider his previous play, which amounted to very little, there were many pretty easy reasons to be on board the Jacob wagon, especially after he made

that

proposal. I feel because he was such an obvious target, it waters down information about a possible D1 rivaling scumwagon, because it could quite easily be townies finding a better target, rather than scum influence. Here is how it went next;

Page 9 Vote Count:

Slepz (5):

xRECKONERx

, Nikanor, Hoopla, Gwynplaine,

JacobSavage

TheButtonmen (3): Oso, q21, InflatablePie

JacobSavage

(2): Furry, havingfitz
Gwynplaine (1): TheButtonmen
Hoopla (1): Slepz

Page 10 Vote Count:

JacobSavage

(6): Furry, havingfitz, Gwynplaine,

xRECKONERx

, q21, Hoopla
Slepz (2): Nikanor,

JacobSavage

TheButtonmen (2): Oso, InflatablePie
Gwynplaine (1): TheButtonmen
Hoopla (1): Slepz

It's worth noting at this point that InflatablePie unvoted just before q21 tried to hammer Jacob. I'm not sure what to make of that mess, but it certainly was chaotic and worth factoring into consideration. Also, another point that needs referencing is my position on the wagon was between havingfitz and Gwynplaine, but shifted to last after I unvoted, revoted Jacob in a fake hammer gambit.

I must admit, I had preconceived thoughts on what I would find upon closer inspection of how the votes unfolded - and that was I'd find dsister in an ugly situation, but I can understand why it's possible his wagon fell away naturally, rather than with any scum motivation. I am quite wary of how quickly momentum shifted though, and smack in between myself and a confirmed townie is Gwynplaine, who seems to have a habit of being the tilt votes.

You'll note his position on the earlier Slepz wagon was around the same position, and if Dsister flips town at some point, I think this would be quite a damning revelation. His votes while not obviously poorly reasoned, were merely tagged on using previously held suspicions by others. I find it curious TheButtonmen has been his prime objector, which could be canny distancing, but it seems very unnecessary when nobody has been paying attention to Gwyn, and it doesn't strike me as his style. I'm quite comfortably declaring that those two won't be scum together, but I think one of them is.

I have more thoughts to come on players like havingfitz and q21, but at the moment, I would like to put a vote out in friendly competition of dsister's possible wagon;

Vote: TheButtonmen

[Hoopla]

*Side note to Hoopla, if you are non-PGO town (ive seen a town PR fakeclaim PGO before), can you claim it please, this can be very useful.

THANKS FOR THE SIDE-NOTE. I SCOFF AT YOUR SUGGESTION I'M FAKE CLAIMING, JUST AS I SCOFF AT YOUR INCREASINGLY BITTER DISPOSITION.

Q21:

I was more scared that someone was going to reference my Mini Normal game this year, where I fakeclaimed MILLER on Day 1 as scum. Fortunately that never came up for me though.

Unvote, vote: q21

[Hoopla]

I feel really bitter. You ever have those seething moments of rage and envy and despair that totally consumes you? I never usually have anything other than a smile on my face, but I have been grinding my teeth and clenching my fists for the last half hour. I don't think it bodes well for mafia at all, when the only way to improve your chances at WINNING is to not be lynched, and I get lynched all the time

cvqrcvnlrw;nv
w
vr\vm

which really pisses me off, because i have so many good thoughts, but i am very difficult to trust. i guess there will be a question why i'm posting now, and i don't know, but i have loose theories revolving around the grandiose idea of separating from the left hemisphere a little more, but i know i'm not really paying attention now

um

unvote, vote: thebuttonmen

[Hoopla]

i want to punch a cat.

[Hoopla]

i have very strong suspicions the three scum lie in this small pool of players; gwynplaine, dsister, thebuttonmen, havingfitz, inflatablepie

I REALLY WANNA LYNCH SOMEONE.

[Hoopla]

i think i can hear a whale talking to me.

[Hoopla]

hmmm.

unvote, vote: inflatablepie

[Hoopla]

*shrug*

Unvote, vote: TheButtonmen

[Hoopla]

Uggh.
yabba: Yes I saw everyone who received the PM. You have to use BCC now to get that same effect.

Hoopla, you said something yesterday about the possibility of three mafia. Do you still believe that now?

It's hard to tell without knowing the other roles in the game - I suggest massclaim will help us largely in discovering how many mafia we have left. Let me just say, that 2:1:9's (27 up until Mini 930) are relatively rare compared to 3:1:8's (73 up until Mini 930), so my opinion is rooted largely in this fact.

I'm not sure how much confidence others place in balance-type arguments, but I consider it one of my few areas of expertise. Who thinks massclaim is a worthwhile idea?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: PGO
Nikanor: Cop
Oso: VT
havingfitz: VT
InflatablePie: VT
Midnight's Sorrow: VT
Gwyplaine: VT
q21: ?

With Nikanor clearing q21, I'm very inclined to believe his claim. Two town PR's against four anti-town roles almost confirms them as town, because this is the minimum threshold you could possibly go to balance-wise in such a set-up. It's possible that we're playing in a 2:1:9 set-up, but cops don't usually fit that set-up. At the moment, I'd prefer q21 not to claim unless he has significant information that can improve lynch odds today. He is almost certain to town, and I'd rather use him as a trump card as opposed to making him claim now. I trust q21 has the capacity to deem the risk versus reward of claiming in this scenario.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla...in your database of game setups...how often are there Cops included in games with SKs and or PGOs? Though my vote is on Nik...barring a counterclaim I am inclined to believe him.

The introduction of the PGO role to Mini Normals is a more recent enterprise, although I only remember seeing 2-3 Mini Normal games with the PGO role - they're slightly more common in Large games, but even then, variants like Bomb and Supersaint are still used more often. So, any data involving that role is far too small a sample to gauge anything. Cop + SK is a far more usable piece of data - here is what I've found in 3:1:8 set-ups;

72 games

63 with a Town Cop
9 without a Cop

Normally this would be jarringly conclusive evidence for the existance of the cop, but these statistics lie a little bit. From Mini 44 (where the records start) to about Mini 350, 3:1:8's were the most common set-up, which was a time-frame where cop was almost universally used, not just in 3:1:8's, but in all set-ups. It's only been the last 2-3 years where role variety has given mods enough options to avoid using cops and even doctors. For reference, here is the data dump;

Mini 64 - Cop
Mini 82 - Cop
Mini 85 - Cop
Mini 97 - Cop
Mini 101 - Cop
Mini 108 - Cop
Mini 113 - Cop
Mini 124 - Cop
Mini 128 - Cop
Mini 133 - Cop
Mini 145 - Cop
Mini 149 - Cop
Mini 153 - Cop
Mini 159 - Cop
Mini 161 - Cop
Mini 166 - N/A
Mini 184 - Cop
Mini 187 - Cop
Mini 192 - Cop
Mini 201 - Cop
Mini 203 - Cop
Mini 209 - Cop
Mini 211 - Cop
Mini 217 - Cop
Mini 229 - Cop
Mini 235 - Cop
Mini 242 - Cop
Mini 254 - Cop
Mini 255 - Cop
Mini 262 - Cop
Mini 275 - Cop
Mini 280 - Cop
Mini 295 - Cop
Mini 297 - N/A
Mini 301 - Cop
Mini 307 - Cop
Mini 308 - Cop
Mini 342 - Cop
Mini 355 - Cop
Mini 358 - Cop
Mini 391 - Cop
Mini 414 - Cop
Mini 441 - Cop
Mini 451 - Cop
Mini 462 - Cop
Mini 474 - Cop
Mini 499 - Cop
Mini 501 - Cop
Mini 504 - Cop
Mini 506 - Cop
Mini 545 - Cop
Mini 553 - Cop
Mini 564 - N/A
Mini 585 - Cop
Mini 592 - Cop
Mini 608 - Cop
Minvitational 8 - Cop
Mini 618 - Cop
Minvitational 10 - N/A
Mini 662 - N/A
Mini 716 - N/A
Mini 722 - Cop
Mini 725 - Cop
Mini 735 - Cop
Mini 745 - Cop
Mini 781 - N/A
Mini 784 - Cop
Mini 802 - Cop
Mini 842 - N/A
Mini 844 - Cop
Mini 851 - N/A
Mini 905 - Cop

It's quite visible to the eye, the dwindling use of the 3:1:8 set-up. The gaps between numbers get larger and larger, whilst the gaps between N/A's for cops shrinks and shrinks. It's still weighted toward a cop being in a 3:1:8 set-up, but it's hard to determine the true chance based purely on stats, because the recent trend makes up only a small portion of the sample size.

A more convincing piece of evidence for Nikanor is from a balance perspective. The games without cops in this set were significantly offset with other power, such as trackers, watchers, vigs, gunsmiths, usually with 3-4 town power roles. I think you can get away with balancing 3:1:8's with only 2 town power roles, but they would need to be strong. And cops are strong.

Our scum team lies in the pool of vanillas.

[Hoopla]

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element.

You could have assumed this yesterday. Why did this sudden change of heart come about today?

[Hoopla]

Oh, and Gwynplaine is scum by the way;

Vote: Gwynplaine

[Hoopla]

- snip -

At the moment, I'd prefer q21 not to claim unless he has significant information that can improve lynch odds today.

- snip -

Strongly disagree here. The rest of the thread has claimed, best to get his as well. It's not like scum is going to be able to use his claim to eliminate a safe claim.

Well, you're very wrong. Because unless you think Nikanor is fake-claiming, q21 is town.

The only benefits that come from q21 claiming is that we clear another player, or incriminate someone else as scum. If he can't do that now, he should not claim. He may have a role that has an ability to take away the certainty of scum's actions at night (read: roleblocker, doctor, 1-shot-vig, redirector etc.) - that is an advantage not worth parting with for no gain.

Tell me the benefits of q21 claiming. Saying he should claim because everyone else did isn't a reason.

[Hoopla]

Tell me the benefits of q21 claiming. Saying he should claim because everyone else did isn't a reason.

I'll reserve further comment until we hear from q21.

I'll take it there is no benefits then.

[Hoopla]

Don't make assumptions simply to give your brain a workout. My comment means exactly what it says, I reserve any further comment on the subject until we hear from q21. No more, no less.

After I know that, I may or may not take up the argument again.

No, you've expressed an interest in wanting a claim from q21, and then 'strongly disagreed' with my rationale opposing the idea. To strongly disagree must mean you have some pro-town reasoning behind why q21 claiming is more beneficial than him not claiming. If your logic is one that required reservations, you shouldn't have been asking him to claim in the first place.

I don't know if you're just biding your time, or you actually have a good reason for him to claim, but I'll eagerly await your comments. I dislike the clause at the end of your post, because I don't think you have a say whether or not the argument comes up - you have to explain why you strongly disagreed with me.

[Hoopla]

No I don't. If you think the reason that I did that is scummy, then by all means, convince the rest of the thread that is so and have me lynched. But I certainly don't have to explain my reasoning to the person who first advanced the idea of a mass claim and then tries to stop it one short of an actual mass claim. q21 is the only person right now that has the standing to object to his RCing as I see it.

The mass claim was suggested, he voted Nik, and as far as I can see he may not even have been on since since the MassRC sort of spontaneously happened. I modified my position after I thought on that.

If he claims, argument over. If not and he advances good reasons why he feels it is not in the town's best interest for him to RC, I'll take those into consideration before I decide to continue my argument or not.

I don't think I find you scummy for this, because you sound sincere in your arguments, but your logic is flawed or we understand each other differently, and I am trying to point out why, so the town doesn't make a suboptimal move. For those following this debate, Oso's second paragraph (see bolded) pretty much sums up his position in my mind, and I will counter that.

You say that

he

needs to advance reasons why him not claiming is beneficial for the town, and if he claims, that's fine. Usually in a game, the two options all players have at all times is claiming and not claiming. Claiming once done, isn't reversable. Not claiming is. Therefore one 'claiming' must provide reasons why it is more protown for her to claim than stay quiet.

And I think I know how this misunderstanding started. You're operating under the guise that since we are massclaiming, this is now the functional, default option that

reverses

the 'claiming/not claiming' option. Claiming now becomes the default in a massclaim, and you must provide reason against this not to claim. Right? I'm not misrepresenting you here?

When you consider what massclaim aims to do - hopefully confirm people as town or scum, or at least give hints either way on your own (or others) alignment, it doesn't make sense for q21 to claim, because we have already confirmed him as town. I think I followed this logical path without really acknowledging it in my arguments. So, unless he can give reasonable insight into anyone elses alignment from his role information, there is no reason for him to claim, because we gain nothing.

[Hoopla]

I have some pretty damning evidence against Gwynplaine here guys. Here are the vote counts from the first two days. I've gone to the liberty of greening the name of Nikanor, q21 and Hoopla on these vote counts, as we are all quite likely town. If you want to debate this with me, do it now, because I am making assumptions based on this information.

Page 8 Vote Count:

Slepz (5):

xRECKONERx

,

JacobSavage

,

Nikanor, Hoopla

, Gwynplaine

TheButtonmen

(3): Oso,

q21

, InflatablePie

Hoopla

(2): Slepz, havingfitz
Gwynplaine (1):

TheButtonmen

Nonvoters:

Furry

Page 9 Vote Count:

Slepz (5):

xRECKONERx

,

Nikanor, Hoopla

, Gwynplaine,

JacobSavage

TheButtonmen

(3): Oso,

q21

, InflatablePie

JacobSavage

(2):

Furry

, havingfitz
Gwynplaine (1):

TheButtonmen

Hoopla

(1): Slepz

Page 10 Vote Count:

JacobSavage

(6):

Furry

, havingfitz, Gwynplaine,

xRECKONERx

,

q21, Hoopla

Slepz (2):

Nikanor

,

JacobSavage

TheButtonmen

(2): Oso, InflatablePie
Gwynplaine (1):

TheButtonmen

Hoopla

(1): Slepz

DAY 2

Page 13 Vote Count:

TheButtonmen

(4):

Hoopla

, havingfitz, Oso, InflatablePie
dsister (2):

Nikanor

, Gwynplaine

Nonvoters:

q21

, dsister,

TheButtonmen, Furry

Page 15 Vote Count:

TheButtonmen

(4): havingfitz, Oso, InflatablePie, Midnight's Sorrow

Nikanor

(2):

q21, Furry

Hoopla

(1): Gwynplaine
InflatablePie (1):

Hoopla

Midnight's Sorrow (1):

Nikanor

q21

(1):

TheButtonmen

Final Vote Count:

TheButtonmen

(6): havingfitz, Oso, InflatablePie, Midnight's Sorrow,

Hoopla, Nikanor

Nikanor

(3):

q21, Furry, TheButtonmen

Midnight's Sorrow (1): Gwynplaine

Looking at the vote counts on Day 1, we've really got a lot of names filled in now. The Page 8 count showcases the first time Gwynplaine makes a 'tilt' vote in this game. A vote which pushes one into the probability of being lynched or forced to claim. It's quite a safe vote from a scum perspective too, as there has been no other mafia there, so there isn't the fear of being tied with other scumbuddies. I'm becoming increasingly confident Midnight is town if Gwynplaine is scum, mostly because Gwyn constantly pushes this wagon throughout the game.

Most damaging to Gwyn is the Page 13 vote count. Just look how scum-driven that Buttonmen wagon is - three unconfirmed players all in a row. There is almost no way from a probabilistic and behavioural perspective that all of these players are scum. Scum would have had to

specifically

plan to jump on in a row like this as some sort of bizarre distancing, and I cannot see those three players doing that. It is quite rare to see a scumteam put all their eggs in one basket and go back to back on the same wagon (especially early), and I've only ever seen it once in a Large Normal in an experienced scumteam that deliberately planned for it. I've talked about this before, but scum have a collective conciousness that subliminally registers their partners suspicions, and have tendancies to err towards a 'good cop/bad cop' mentality. It's a subconciousness sort of distancing, because they fear being linked too easily with one another. Very often when a big topic or large wagon forms, scum will be very careful to differ from at least one of their partners.

This heavily incriminates Gwyn - because he is on a rival wagon, and if my theory about Midnight being town is right, it pins two scum on the Buttonman lynch, which is what I expect. I'm very confident that Gwyn is scum, and am currently favouring havingfitz/InflatablePie as his teammates.

I hope everyone takes a look over these voting patterns though, because they are quite illuminating.

[Hoopla]

I like MS as an alternative -

mostly because I can barely remember one of Gwyn's posts

and I highly doubt Oso is scum. So for the four 'nillas, I'd go fitz > MS >= Gwyn > Oso.

I'll check Gwyn out in ISO when I get the chance, so I can make a more definitive stance on the middle two.

Here's another good reason. He is the definition of 'flying under the radar'.

[Hoopla]

Fitz or Pie, you can bus your buddy now - there's no way back from here for him. Whoever hammers we'll let live tomorrow....maybe.

[Hoopla]

I kind of have a feeling Gwyn is the roleblocker - his play has been cautious and under the radar enough to suit being a scum power role. Here's hoping.

[Hoopla]

We're probably still in mylo. I'd rather not see these votes out so soon, so put them away. It's obvious now that the mafia has a roleblocker - which should make it obvious that myself and Nikanor are truthful about our roles, unless anyone can justify 3-4 scum against one town power role.

My gut is saying InflatablePie is the best choice today, but I'm not going to commit to anything yet.

[Hoopla]

MS

is

still a viable suspect. I got no result when I tried to inspect MS.

Well, MS is less likely to be a realistic suspect based on Gwyn's interactions with him. That would be some pretty impressive bussing/distancing that I don't think either of them are capable of. Especially on Day 2, Gwyn's attack on MS seems like an obvious tactic to avoid being on the leading townie wagon, while his buddies push it. When you consider the likelihood of the Buttonmen lynch going through, it would be a needless risk to set your scumbuddy up as the competing bandwagon.

I'm quite confident that MS is town.

[Hoopla]

MS

is

still a viable suspect. I got no result when I tried to inspect MS.

You got 'no result' the previous night too, right? It might be a sensitive topic to discuss the wording, but was it the same?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla's case with the votals is a convincing one. And a fitz/Gwyn team would make sense, since fitz seemingly isn't willing to vote for Gwyn at the moment. Although to be fair, I'm not on the Gwynwagon either, so I can see how she'd pick me as a possible partner, too.

Although, on the other hand, Gwyn has picked up a lot of votes very quickly. This is most likely due to the fact that all these people think Gwyn is scum, but it's worth noting if Gwyn flips town.

I'll wait for a defense before (possibly) casting the hammer.

This makes me a little antsy for some reason - surely Pie must know Gwyn is going down at this point, but why would he set up havingfitz with Gwyn if Pie/fitz is the scum team? It looks more like Pie-scum manipulating the situation than anything else. This fear is quanitified by the way he has come out today and attacked havingfitz

and

MS, who is a town read. It also looks like Pie is leaving the door open to back out of Gwyn suspicion if Gwyn makes a good post, or someone else defends him - this is classic late-bandwagon buddy behaviour, trying to keep the options open while

looking

like he is in favour of the lynch.

Having said that, this worries me too - a post by fitz early on Day 3 before the massclaim;

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element. TBM and Furry on Nikanor (may they rest in peace) coupled with the quick vote on TBM by Nik before TBM could claim...and not providing any case on TBM after waiting for me to provide mine.....has Nikanor atop my scum list.

Vote Nikanor

Nikanor is virtually confirmed town now, and at the time was probably considered a main suspect - which is a double-edged sword really. Despite looking as if scum are forcing a mislynch on a townie, it's also understandable when you consider the general suspicion around Nikanor at the time. I think the key to this post is how he disregards suspicion of me, and hastily pushes elsewhere, as if the mind just suddenly changes so liberally. It makes sense from a scum perspective that he was trying to lynch me on Day 1/2 because I pose such a threat to scum if I get confirmed/look pro-town enough not be lynched, but then realises that if scum get a mislynch on Day 3, it is a clever way to evade the problem of a PGO, because they effectively endgame me with 3 scum alive.

[Hoopla]

I will be V/LA until about Tuesday

, unfortunately. I will be able to put in a few posts during that time, but I need to wait until then to have a proper reread. Please nobody push a lynch today - I want to have a good say in it, because I think we can break it open now that we've got a scum down.

Infact, I'd ask everyone to unvote right now, because bandwagons aren't necessary or good in anyway in mylo.

Lets decide on a lynch first.

[Hoopla]

Final thoughts before I go to work;

- InflatablePie is probably scum.
- havingfitz is probably not scum with InflatablePie, but is almost certainly scum if InflatablePie isn't.
- Oso is InflatablePie's likeliest scum partner by way of process of elimination, but I have to reread this pairing before I make a definitive judgment on this.
- Midnight's Sorrow is probably not scum, but if he is, his likeliest partner is InflatablePie, although I see that as less likely than Pie/Oso.

Please don't lynch havingfitz while I'm not here - I don't think he is the right choice. Nikanor, you should be listening to me, you ought to trust me by now.

[Hoopla]

Vote: havingfitz.

Why not?
We're probably looking at a scumteam of uno now.

Nope, three player scum team. Why you ask? Because of your role and mine. That would be insanely unfair for the mafia to be up against a cop, PGO

and

an SK, with only a goon and a roleblocker. One cop investigation, SK kill or incorrect nightkill, or even a lucky Day 1 lynch wipes out half the scumteam. How is that fair? Cops are sucky roles in 2:1:9's, because then if you have a Godfather, the cop has only one possible target to find - what's the point? But then of course, there can't be a GF in a 2-player team if a roleblocker exists. There's no way it was 2-player scumteam. Cops are too powerful to be in 2:1:9's, and that's not even taking my role into account.

It must be made known, there are two scum, and we are in mylo. Sorry Nikanor.

[Hoopla]

If for some ungodly reason he does not flip scum, I have a feeling I'll get lynched next, since him and I are the two prime suspects today.

Except for the bit about it being mylo. I'm surprised you're this careless to not know there won't be any other lynches if we're wrong today - but then again, Epicmafia solves that riddle.

[Hoopla]

I already addressed this yesterday:

I've had a change of heart on Hoopla. I'm assuming there is 3 scum in addition to the SK...which IMO would support a PGO to offset the 33% anti-town element.

You could have assumed this yesterday. Why did this sudden change of heart come about today?

I didn't really give you much thought yesterday as I carried my D1 vote/suspicions over to D2 up through his lynch.

As I said...it was not a sudden change on D3. You only came up once iirc as an afterthought on D2 as the focus for most people, including yourself, was TBM. After two completed days tbh your claim had faded a bit due to the scummy play of others. It's still in the back of my mind and I'll be pissed if you wind up scum but I'd rather focus on 2 out of 3 (IP, Oso, MS) than 2 out of 4.

Yeah, I know it's sort of a rehashed question. I suppose my point was this time that I'd unearthed a better motive for you to do this - and that was because if scum-you could get a mislynch Day 3, you wouldn't need to worry about the PGO problem any more.

I don't think it's a major point, mostly something that is playing on my mind.

[Hoopla]

Hey Oso, would you say at the moment you more favour a havingfitz lynch?

[Hoopla]

Sending massprod (sans havingfitz). A preemptive strike for some, but seeing as its 3 hours early at most, and I won't be awake by then, I'm doing it now.

I stated I would have limited access until Tuesday, but I have a little bit of time now for a post or two. I'd still prefer to wait until then so I can become surer in my opinions, but InflatablePie is likely where I would rest my vote.

[Hoopla]

I'd like InflatablePie to drop a vote in his next post, coupled with a summary of why that player is a better choice than he. Thanks in advance!

[Hoopla]

I'm still technically away, but I have some thoughts I wish to share:

I find it very curious that InflatablePie has managed to receive three votes without the help of Nikanor's or my vote - the one's very likely to be town. What it means if InflatablePie is scum is that his partner is bussing him - which if true, is a very unwise ploy, as my existance guarentees a draw (at least) if we lynch scum today. It's exactly what happened in a recent Mini Normal game (here), where the game was left with a PGO and goon stuck in an endgame.

I'm working on the presumption scum have realised this possibility and would be disinclined to bus today, as it leads to a 3 player endgame with a draw the best possible result for scum. Thus, if InflatablePie is scum, I conclude havingfitz probably isn't scum, as he is on the wagon early and I think would be one to realise bussing should be a last resort for scum today. InflatablePie also went for havingfitz right out of the gate today also, which increases the unlikelihood of them being scum together.

I think Midnight Sorrow and Oso could potentially be unwittingly bussing

without

the knowledge that it leads to an endgame where they can't win. I make this assumption on the basis that they are new players and may not understand the function of my role in endgames - in any case, they should check out the link I provided as it explains the mechanic of my role and if I survive.

I must admit I'm thrown off by this vote count, because it either means scum is bussing (which is foolish), or InflatablePie is town. They both seem equally likely to me, but Oso's recent swing to InflatablePie makes me nervous, and I feel like we're doing the wrong thing, as I'm finding it hard to pick out a partner for InflatablePie. Havingfitz I've virtually removed from the possibilities of being scum with InflatablePie, and I doubt Midnight's Sorrow is scum, so it must mean that Oso is scum with Pie, if Pie is scum.

But then it leads me to the logic, that if InflatablePie

isn't

scum, it still must be Oso. The fact that I have ruled out a havingfitz/InflatablePie scumpair, means that Oso must be my rational choice. The only way this logic fails is if myself, Nikanor or Midnight are scum. And the only piece of doubt I hold in that sequence is Midnight, but his interactions with Gwyn make it very unlikely to be so. I feel like this is pretty compelling evidence to vote Oso now, and I shall.

Vote: Oso

I'm not sure who of havingfitz/InflatablePie he is scum with, but we can work that out tomorrow when we have the safety net of the draw secured. I urge Midnight, Nikanor and the remaining townie to join me on this, because I find it difficult to pick out a scum team without Oso's presence. InflatablePie might very well be scum, but I think we must lynch Oso in this situation as he has the option of fitting with havingfitz, whilst InflatablePie (seemingly) doesn't. This is our best shot - my logic feels very solid. Please support this.

[Hoopla]

InflatablePie:

You don't think Oso is scum do you? I'd like to see your reaction to my latest post and how that sits with you, because you recently stated you deemed havingfitz/Midnight as your likeliest scumpair. Also, what do you think of Midnight's interactions with Gwynplaine while he was alive?

[Hoopla]

The thing about Oso is that he's seemed protown for most of the game, so I am finding it hard to see him as scum.

Yes, I agree muchly, but it has got to the point where logical process of elimination cases supersede behavioural tells. He has played a good game, I think, but I am ~80% sure he is scum.

Also, Hoopla, what do you think of an Oso/MS team? I didn't see you mention it.

I didn't intend my previous post to be so daunting - it really was just a check in post, as I am still away. But I have been thinking of the game during this time, which is perhaps why I got so wordy. I'll try and make my thought process a little clearer though, because I am essentially working off a string of logical assumptions that has boxed my choice into Oso. Here are those assumptions with how strongly I deem them to be true;

1) Hoopla and Nikanor are town (99%)
2) Midnight's Sorrow is town (75%)
3) InflatablePie and havingfitz aren't scum together (85%)

I know many on this site have a tendency to exaggerate their certainty, but I feel these percentages are as accurate reflection as I can get. Midnight's Sorrow being town is the shakiest of them all, but I still very much doubt he is scum based on Gwyn's interactions and votes toward him. I've made numerous posts outlining this so I won't elaborate further - it is open to debate though. With the third assumption, this is based largely on their play today, and again I have addressed this multiple times.

Lets say I am right on all of those assumptions, it means Oso

must

be scum with one of InflatablePie and havingfitz. I deem this likelier than one of my assumptions being wrong, which is why I think it is the correct lynch today. If you're opposed to an Oso lynch, you must deem one of my assumptions to be wrong, or to be less likely than Oso being scum.

I must be off now - I intended to explain some more here, but I have to cut this one short. See you all soon.

[Hoopla]

I

KNOW

right now though. If there are indeed 2 scum left

havingfitz isn't one of them.

I'd have been lynched before being able to post.

Ah, and quite importantly, if you're scum it heavily incriminates havingfitz which was the way I was starting to lean anyway. Havingfitz's next post also quantifies this theory;

Then we have Hoopla’s vote on Oso and highlighting of the draw scenario followed by quick votes by MS and IP on Oso...which would once again indicate scum bussing scum (with the now obvious realization by all of the draw possibilities) unless MS and IP were scum together. So one way or another...scum had to be bussing scum...unless MS is scum in which case either wagon has the potential to not include bussing.

He tries to use the scum bussing argument here also, but it doesn't take into consideration a Fitz/Oso team, so it's a rather useless summary. With InflatablePie getting to L-1, it is a much bigger difference as all three non-confirmed players were on it. The rest of havingfitz's post is equally illuminating - scrambling to bring me back into consideration again knowing the scumteam has been pinned. This was one thing I was quite wary of, Oso and havingfitz were both very much agreeing with me, believing my claim as long as I was off-track, but have flipped (at least fitz has) as soon as my radar has fixed on scum. I think this also coincides with them now realising a draw is their only possible result and is a natural scum tactic to either discredit me, or make me less trustworthy.

I hope the rest of the town sees how obvious the scumteam of Oso/havingfitz is becoming. Surprisingly (or perhaps not), they've both come to conclusions that the other is town, which is exactly the sort of the tactic the scumteam must adopt in this situation.

Nikanor, hammer when you're ready.

[Hoopla]

The question I beg of you, Hoopla, is that it seems you are leaning towards me being scum at the end of your post. May I ask why you did not hammer? Not that I want you to, of course, just curious.

Simply put, the only scumteams I can (or could) see was InflatablePie/Oso or havingfitz/Oso, which made Oso the rational choice. It became quite obvious to me that you/fitz weren't scum together, and with a strong town-read on Midnight, it was a rather elementary decision. The only way we fail is if either of those two assumptions is wrong - which I don't think is likely.

Individually

, I think you were the scummiest player, but I couldn't find anyone to realistically pair you with once you received the three votes on yourself, which was a critical point in my decision swinging to Oso. At this stage of the game, you need to abandon behavioural tells and gut feelings if they can't be paired up with someone else. Process of elimination by ruling out potential pairs is a very potent tool in endgame. I'm rather confident it is Oso/fitz, and if I'm right I hope they don't feel too aggrieved, as they were boxed in by circumstances that were difficult to predict. It sucks when that happens as scum.

[Hoopla]

MS...if you are town (which I believe after Hoopla's last two posts) please take your vote off Oso and do a little reading to form your own opinion.

[
tl/dr..... the last two scum are either MS and IP (assuming Hoopla’s claim is true) OR IP and Hoopla.

Look at the scum trying to scramble out of the Oso lynch, slinging mud whereever it sticks. I don't know why I'm continuing to argue with you, because I'm confident Nikanor isn't daft enough not to see the Oso/havingfitz scumteam now that it's appeared in the limelight.

If I'm scum with IP, why did I divert attention away from you at the start of day when you had two votes? Why also did I lead the Gwynplaine wagon yesterday too? If I was scum, I would have won by now, trust me.

Nik & MS --

I’m certain IP is scum and after Hoopla’s last two posts I’m confident she has been playing us

. Look at her meta...she is a very good player as anti-town. She is in the habit of coming up with creative fakeclaims that are extremely unlikely to be countered and therefore only proven with her lynch.

After my last two posts when I switched to your buddy, whom you continue to ignore? A tip for making meta cases - make sure they haven't displayed similar behaviour as town before trying to set it up purely as a scum mentality. Although, you'll be hardpressed to find any scum players who don't fakeclaim at some point.

[Hoopla]

Ah, in case my first point in my previous post isn't clear - havingfitz mentions several times Midnight's Sorrow is almost certainly town, then his summary pins him as a suspect....two posts later.

[Hoopla]

You are right on your assumptions 2 and 3. You are wrong on #1, which interestingly enough, you do not have at 100%. You know your role...Nik is confirmed through no counter...so why isn’t #1 100%?

Because cops don't always exist in Mini Normal games, so the lack of counterclaim isn't confirmation in any way. The end of this post pretty much sums up my feelings for Nikanor. There is no way the town has just me as the only power role against 3-4 scum. I've never seen a Mini Normal with only one town power role in a game with at least 3 anti-town players - this is in 300+ games. So it is exceedingly unlikely that myself or Nikanor are fakeclaiming. We just wouldn't have enough power.

You've pretty much sacrificed any chance of a draw now with this recent attack on me, though.

[Hoopla]

@Hoopla....what does me mentioning MS could be/definitely is/might be/whatever I said be town have to do with it? Things change as new information comes to light or as new probabilities come into view. I am not 100% sure you are scum....but the fact you are not even willing to consider MS and IP as scum leads me to believe you are not considering it because you want this game over and you are IP's partner. From what I have seen of your play I have a good amount of respect for your game (warsteiner speaking) and if you were in fact town, I do not think you would have a blind eye to all the options.

Because it was two posts and two hours later. You kept on filling your post with assurances MS is town, then suddenly concluded he is a candidate. You're strawmanning me completely - I have considered a lot of different scenarios. I led the Gwynplaine wagon yesterday counter to the popular MS-wagon, I stopped your wagon and started an IP wagon today, and then stopped that again when it became clear Oso was scum. My opinions have shifted in a very transparent manner, and I've always made the rationale behind my decisions clear. You're the one that continuously flipflops without reason - just look at the way you handle my claim.

Also...answer this...why at this point in the game should anyone consider your PGO claim any more valid than a town claim? They shouldn't. At this point in the game you are on the same level as all of us...except for Nik. Who you do not want to proclaim 100% town, yet make the point it would be ridiculously unlikley that there would not be a town PR (with or without your claim being valid)...yet you don't give Nik and you the 100% seal of approval.

Aren't you the one decrying my role-claim? You're upset that people are believing my claim and I shouldn't be confirmed or seen town from it. Okay, fair enough. But you then can't use my claim to incriminate me either, if you want to judge a player without taking role into consideration. You need to say why my play (not my role) is suspicious - if you can only rely on my role to incriminate me, you accept that you can judge a player based on role, and thus open up the possibility of people seeing me as town from my claim.

I never proclaim 100% for anything other than my own innocence. It is extremely likely he is a town cop (and you agree), so I don't know why you keep mentioning this.

How many games only have a cop as the lone town PR? Assuming there are no others.

In 2:1:9's and 3:1:8's (the only possible set-ups we're in), it has happened ZERO times. It has also never happened that a single town power role has existed. There has always been

at least

two, which should be enough to confirm myself and Nikanor. The only time a game has existed with less than two power roles is in a 2:10 game, which isn't relevant to us here. If you want the data for the 2:1:9 and 3:1:8 games, I'm more than happy to dump it if you want to double check, but I can assure you there have been no games with just one power role in those set-ups.

I'm town. If you don't think my role confirms me (or should be a factor at all), then pick apart my play and tell me why I'm scum. Why would I lead a Gwynplaine wagon over MS on Day 3? Why would I set-up an InflatablePie lynch and then destroy it? Your answer to these questions can't be that I am scum with both. So, why would I sacrifice an easy scum win just to fool you further?

[Hoopla]

If Nikanor doesn't get in here soon, I'll be a little ticked off.

[Hoopla]

I read that like 5 times and still don't know what Oso is trying to say. I feel stupid.

That's what craplogic is designed to do. Don't feel bad.

[Hoopla]

Sorry, I'm here.

I don't see how fitz and Oso can be scum together. They've been voting together for practically the entire game. If they are scum together, I'm going to be seriously weirded out by the cross-buddying they've been doing all game.

Are you serious? Thank god you're dying tonight. So, who's Oso's partner then, mister? InflatablePie and MS are both voting Oso right now, which is a foolish scum bus, because it removes the option of a scum win. Have you not read havingfitz recent posts pleading against the Oso wagon? It's super obvious havingfitz is Oso's buddy - read today's posts (mine especially).

[Hoopla]

Ugh, I really set myself up to be disappointed then. That lynch was one of the surest I've felt in a while, and just goes to show how wrong we can be sometimes.

Hmmm, I would normally still assume we're in a 2-scum set-up, and the reason there hasn't been an endgame enforced is because of my own role. But surely, the town can't win even if we no-lynched and a scum targeted me at night for some reason as that takes it to 1-1.

I guess we must be in a 2:1:9, which is a little surprising considering the roles we know to exist. I suppose no-lynch is our only real option today. Appologies if this is brief - I hope to add something more substancial tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

Well, the way I see it, is if there is two scum left, then we have lost already. We may as well play under the presumption there is only one, because we can actually have a say about that result. In which case, no lynch is the best option, because we eliminate someone from the suspects pool.

Vote: No lynch

I think this needs to be done with minimal discussion, so the scum can't predict which kill gives them the most favourable lylo.

[Hoopla]

Ah, brilliant! It turns out we only have a 2-player scumteam after all. That makes me feel a bit better about totally messing up with Oso's lynch - in my defence, the entirity of the case resided on the assumption that there was a 3-player scumteam. Thanks posthumously to Oso for being a good sport.

Let me have a think about who the final scum is. I'm confident we have enough information to nail this scumbag.

[Hoopla]

Happy with the draw, InflatablePie?

[Hoopla]

My lack of hammer confirms me as town now, so I look forward to you and fitz' slinging mud for the next page or so, whilst I compile my thoughts. For the deceased townies reading along - don't worry, I got this, my record in lylo is 1/7.

[Hoopla]

Obviously we now know you're town. What do you mean, 1/7?

Lylo's I've been alive in where I've had to make the choice, I've one win and seven losses. Or maybe that includes my own lynch in lylo too - I don't remember, I haven't been in lylo for a while now.

[Hoopla]

I admit fitz' early play is exactly the reaction I was searching for from my claim. Coupled with his blatant flipflopping throughout the game on my role, they are decent behavioural tells to help top up a case - but I feel this is all it should be, as we will extract more conclusive evidence from vote counts and bandwagons, in my opinion. I've been basing all my views on this game under the guise of a 3 player scumteam, which has led me astray searching for impossible scumteams. Luckily, nothing damaging comes about from the incorrect assumption of the size of the scumteam, as being wrong gives you an extra day regardless. But the game changes quite a lot now - a two player scumteam plays very differently from a larger group as their individual survival is far more important.

One particularly illuminating passage of play was Gwyn's posts through page 5 (here). The vote count is a relevant reference point to these thoughts, so I'll post it now;

Page 5 Vote Count:

havingfitz (4):

Furry, Hoopla, Nikanor

, InflatablePie

Hoopla

(3):

Radical Hijinx, Slepz

, havingfitz

Slepz

(2):

Gwynplaine

,

xRECKONERx

Radical Hijinx

(2):

Oso, q21

Nonvoters:

JacobSavage

The reason this passage of play is important is because Gwyn has decent interactions with both InflatablePie and havingfitz, which is critical if havingfitz is scum, because he has four votes and comes under increasing pressure that page from his psuedo-policy stance on my role. So, the question to ask is, how would Gwyn react if his only partner was leading the vote count (with possibly more to come - I think this is a key point)? He has a snide back and forth with InflatablePie, which feels contrived, but would be a guess either way on it's motivation. Then, later in the page he references havingfitz' policy stance;

Show me where I have called my stance "policy".

Just because you don't call it that doesn't mean the rest of us can't.

You're voting for Hoopla based only on her roleclaim. You don't seem to be considering her other posts at all. This makes me think you'd be voting for anybody who'd claimed PGO in their first post, regardless of who they were or what else they posted. That may not be a policy lynch by your definition, but arguments against policy lynches easily double as arguments against your position.

Interestingly, Gwyn was the one to initiate this piece of interaction, which reads two ways. It looks like an attack, but it also looks like possible coaching, as if to say 'hey, drop it, you're going to get yourself lynched, damnit!'. Initially I interpretted it more as an attack, and that Gwyn

wouldn't

do this if havingfitz was his partner, because it was potentially risky drop of fuel to add to the fire. Then my opinion slowly shifted toward it being a potential pre-emptive bus or a way to diffuse or clarify the situation, which would suggest a havingfitz partner. But I think I was looking at this the wrong way altogether. A far more substancial clue in this puzzling piece of play, is that Gwynplaine is actively lurking, deliberately dishing up nothing posts that seem like something. This serves as a defense mechanism for whichever way the havingfitz wagon goes, as ambiguous and non-relevant posts keep his options open, which deep down is a very scum-like mentality. An attack or defense on havingfitz then would have closed off one option for Gwyn - this is what indicates havingfitz is his partner.

This belief is quanitified as we tick over to page 6. Gwyn's vote on Jacob seems very obviously like scum seeking the refuge on a safe vote;

Wee, the only non voter!

And I must say

vote:Slepz

To make everything nice an symmetrical

This is the worst post of the game so far.

Vote: JacobSavage

This is a brilliant opportunity for scum to kickstart a new wagon. Granted, this is something townies could and should jump on, but after his odd non-commital page 5 play, such a swing in decisiveness points to him being edgy around the havingfitz wagon.

*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*^*

InflatablePie, do you remember this post (on page 8);

Nik asking certain people to switch their vote is a bit odd. Makes me sad that I didn't get an invitation either. I feel like that weirdo kid in high school that's really quiet and no one likes him or talks to him and he doesn't get a heads-up on the parties going on even though he wouldn't really mind going... which I was, but that's not the point.

Gwyn switching over so easily also seems off, especially because of the weird reason he was voting for Slepz in the first place...

Do you remember your thought process behind this? Why did Gwyn's vote seem strange?

[Hoopla]

The way Day 4 unfolded was probably the most telling of the game, I feel. We had just lynched Gwynplaine the previous day, so it was at this point the scumteam was down to one. That person must have known they needed two mislynches to win, which should indicate a specific style of play. Fortunately, for the sake of analysis, two wagons sprung up on havingfitz and InflatablePie, which is a juicy passage of information as far as I'm concerned, as both those wagons were brought about in two different ways.

I'll be getting to this in detail after I finish work, and also want to take a deeper look at Gwyn's lynch, because I think I am missing some clues there. While I'm away, I wouldn't mind seeing both of your takes on how Day 4 went, because you both were wagoned, and in the end neither of you were lynched. I think this is a very important day to analyse and would like it to be touched upon.

[Hoopla]

InflatablePie: Ever played in a 2:1:9 before (as town or scum)?

[Hoopla]

Also, I've reread through Day 4 and the Gwynplaine wagon, and finished off colouring in and analysing the vote counts. I was contemplating typing up my findings, but I think at the moment it is in my interest to keep my cards close, because I don't have to convince anyone but myself. I'm getting closer to sure, leaning one way 80/20, I would say. I will post some questions that need answering when they arise, but for the most part I don't think they're answerable, as the tells and analysis are based on vote-counts and wagon theory, which generally focuses on things you don't know you're doing.

[Hoopla]

What timezone are you in fitz? When are you usually online?

[Hoopla]

InflatablePie: Ever played in a 2:1:9 before (as town or scum)?

Don't think I have. Newbie 902, Mafia 112 (Large), Mini 963 and Mini 992 are my on-site completed games. Two scum, I think 5 scum and an SK, 3 scum (w/ traitor), and three scum respectively.

The reason I ask, was because this post caught my eye;

Unvote

because Hoopla asked nicely and kind of has a point. Question though: if we're in MyLo, would a no lynch today be a plausible idea at all?

If it really is 4:2,

then a no lynch would eliminate one player, making things easier to narrow down. It would most likely be Nikanor (iirc, everyone but Nik/Hoopla claimed vanilla, meaning no doc), but with a roleblocker alive our cop's powers are limited.

Plus, if we are somehow in 9:2:1, that means right now, we have 5:1

- if we lynch scum, we then have to no lynch to lylo. Either way, we have to vote no lynch, the question is if we do it today or tomorrow. If Hoopla's theory is correct (or even if it isn't), it seems the smarter move to NL today, but I'm not sure how you guys treat MyLo here on MS. Of course, we can still scumhunt today and attempt to peg scum, so let's continue.

It kind of looks like you have inside knowledge of the set-up. I'm not sure why you were talking about this possibility, when you've not seen a 2:9:1 before, and the general consensus suggested otherwise. I'm also not sure the scum motivation behind saying something like this, other than using privelaged knowledge to shape a better position for you in the future. You used this argument against havingfitz, with his late play towards Oso - is this a relevant parallel do you feel? Why were you wary of a 2:1:9 set-up?

[Hoopla]

Hey fitz, are you online now?

[Hoopla]

Ah, good to know, fitz.

I'm going to lay my cards down now - I am 80% sure InflatablePie is the last scum, but to confirm you as town and Pie as scum, I'm going to self-vote quickly while you're still here. If I'm right you obviously won't hammer me (just make a quick post before Pie gets here), and I can unvote and finish off the confirmed scum.

Vote: Hoopla

[Hoopla]

By the way, Hoopla, if you're actually, say, a bomb or vengeful townie... then I am going to cry. Then congratulate you on a good play and slap myself for being stupid.

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Vengekill: InflatablePie

[Hoopla]

Appologies to the townies watching on, thinking I had gone mental and thrown the game away with a self-vote in lylo. I wish I could have seen your faces.

[Hoopla]

Hoopla, very very good game. Curious, did you think it was me the whole day or did you just slowly take fitz's side? I'd like to see those thoughts you talked about earlier if you don't mind.

I was actually genuinely torn for most of the day - even when I claimed to be 80% sure it was you, that was a lie, and it was closer to the middle. I was trying to pick a time to self-vote when you were both likeliest to be online at the same time, so it looked more believable to the mafia that I would unvote quickly, but even if that didn't happen, I would still have confirmed you as scum by way of havingfitz not voting me. So, even if you were canny enough to pick the trap, I would have still voted you in the end.

Ah, I have a file of notes and bookmarked posts on my laptop, so I'll get to them later. I didn't put those thoughts into neat paragraphs though, and I probably won't bother now, so....

[Hoopla]

What made you do the PGO claim at the start?

It obviously worked out amazingly but you couldn't have been planning Lylo epicness at the start of D1?

It was a few reasons - the main one was, that I knew my power was very potent late in the game, so I wanted to maximise my chances of getting there. PGO was a good way to do it, because you eliminate the night-kill as a mode of dying, and even if that claim increases your chance of being lynched, you still have a better chance of long-term survival if you're only battling the lynch, rather than the lynch and NK. It was still not a total disaster if my claim wasn't believed and I was lynched early though, because I got to use my power (which is essentially a 1-shot-vig), and pick off scum that way. Really, the benefits of what it could potentially do, far outweighed the risks of any bad I did from fakeclaiming, making it a viable decision.

The best-case scenario was lingering in the back of my mind, because I knew I only had to survive the lynch and make sure we lynched scum once or twice along the way. I'm kind of surprised how little suspicion my claim actually generated. Players like Reck and Furry strongly believing me early in the game helped a lot to dissuade those on the fence about my claim.

[Hoopla]

How did you enjoy the game experience? I know quite a few of you found my graphics cool (although I bet you nobody clicked on the Night placard to submit actions ).

Your lynch scenes are graphics were brilliant yabba, definitely run with that gimmick in the future. I automatically love mods who post frequent vote-counts, are active with prods and replacements, and especially a Green Room for dead players. It was very professionally run, and I think overall the set-up was fine. I know I boxed myself and others into a 3-scum mentality, making balance predictions from that, and even if I exaggerated the chance of a 3-mafia game, it never is a costly mistake because being wrong and mislynching is still the same net result of being right and lynching scum. Both ways finish chasing one less scum.

[Hoopla]

This should be a lesson to towns about how dangerous it is believing a PGO claim. I could have just as easily fakeclaimed that role as scum, and none of you were going to do anything about it. PGO's are a fine and usable role for mods, but the set-up they exist in needs to be thoroughly reviewed because they can be swingy. For towns of the future: expect an influx on scum PGO fake-claims as the role becomes more common.

The same thing happened with the miller role, too. Initially it was used as a balancing agent to water down cops result, and claiming it Day 1 slowly became standard procedure (for a while). Soon, scum started taking advantage this meta by fake-claiming it, and towns often have competing theories on how to deal with one. The same dilemma exists for the PGO too, it is just an exaggerated scenario, as it (possibly) can't be safely targetted at night. After a couple of towns get stung by fake PGO claims, the role will slowly optimise and be dealed with more suspicion or even policy. As it stands now, town (and scum) don't pressure claimed PGO's enough, which makes it a major advantage for town if it's true, or a major disadvantage if it's false.

[Hoopla]

First of all, well-played to the town, and especially to Hoopla. That said, Hoopla got really lucky with the setup and especially with the way the scum role PMs were written. We had to specify which player made the kill even though as it turns out that didn't affect the game play at all, since there were no watchers, trackers, town roleblockers or ... you know. If there hadn't been that stipulation, we would have disbelieved the PGO claim and killed her N1. If there really had been three mafia, I'd have strongly suggested killing her on night one whether we believed the claim or not.

Almost every game run in the last year or two and every game I've played as scum, a specific team member has to send in the kill. This is largely due to the increase of town roles that interact with individual player actions, and even in games (like this), you still need that rule to prevent scum knowing what roles won't exist in the set-up. I'm pretty sure it's a standard procedure across the board though, or if it isn't yet, it soon will be because newer mods will copy what they have seen in the games they play.

In an unrelated point, I think your wagon, especially because it grew so quickly, put InflatablePie in a very difficult spot to bus you or try and save you. You must have been pretty shocked coming online after being on zero votes to be all of a sudden at L-1.