Last Will Mafia II (Over)

[Nachomamma8]

Question1: Not public at all.
Question2: Yes.
Question3: I got screwed as scum last game because the power roles DIDNT have a lot of votes, and the normal townies did. You make the decision.

Vote: Twomz

There is no jusitice in kiilling a townie.

[Nachomamma8]

Unvote, Vote: Shattered Viewpoint

We don't.

[Nachomamma8]

V/LA until Monday Night

[Nachomamma8]

I know I haven't really read a game that closely when I start agreeing with Twomz...

[Nachomamma8]

V/A UNTIL MONDAY.

I HAVE A LOT OF CATCHING UP TO DO TODAY, AND I DON'T FEEL LIKE DOING IT UNTIL MONDAY.

LOVE YOU GUYS,
NACHO

[Nachomamma8]

Chrono is town, millar is town.

Dia is town once he starts pushing scum lynches.

The rest, I don't know.

But I've done waaay too much catching up today, and honestly, I'm tired of mafia for a day.

So, I leave you with

Vote: Raider8169

.

[Nachomamma8]

Hey, Pittbunny.

You like gambling?

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: EGL

Explanation comes tomorrow.

[Nachomamma8]

Why EGL is scum for Dummies:

1) The Shattered Viewpoint Vote:
EGL votes SV for an RVS reason, then, when the wagon starts to grow, heavily lurks until the lynch.

2) Reaction to my announced suspicion:
Notice how EGL attempts his first bit of scumhunting AFTER I call him out, and notice what a horrible attempt at scumhunting it is.

3) More Concerned with Town Reads than Scum Reads:
His reaction to Diacria's town list reads to me like scum trying to cast doubt on Diacria's mind about his town reads. Also, it's just scummy when someone spends just as much time asking someone about town reads as they do about scum reads,

There! It's as easy as one, two, three! And I can add lots of words for those who won't believe the case until it takes up their entire screeen, and I probably will if I don't see lots of votes on EGL tomorrow. So voting for EGL not only furthers the townie wincon, but it also saves screenspace!

Amsih, explain your vote? Also, your view on town lists is too paranoid. I mean, how hard is it for scum to figure out who you think is town unless you constantly tunnel?

Jahudo, do you have any suspicions that aren't so... obvious/opportunistic?

[Nachomamma8]

^This is one of those people I told you about who needs cases that stretch the screen in order to be convinced.

[Nachomamma8]

Lately, I find myself without the time that I need to convince you guys, so calling

LA until Monday/Tuesday

. Expect a long case from me, then annoying pictures until I get the votes I want.

Thank you.

[Nachomamma8]

@EGL: 2 had absolutely nothing to do with town reads. Why did you get this impression?

Also, you questioned KMD based on page 1 scum reads. And your fixation with town reads was scummy because you were more concerned with why people found other people town as opposed to why people found other people scum. You did this so you could see what people found as townie behavior, so you could replicate that as scum.

FYI: Posting a lot of useless crap in a row doesn't make you look any more town...

@Jah: Suspicions were opportunistic because your cases were on the flavors of the day, and you didn't provide a whole lot of new stuff.

SSBF is so conventional... it hurts my heart, honestly. Also, he's wrong.

Richard's not getting lynched today. Oh, and Rich? During the night, don't play like a doctor. Play like a vig

ALSO EGL IS SCUM AND ALL OF YOU SHOULD REALIZE THAT.

[Nachomamma8]

@Magua: Is your gut read on EGL strong enough where you would defend him if he was at L-2 right now? Also, what makes you say that Charlie is pushing EGL right now? He isn't voting him, he hasn't provided anything new about him...

KMD, your vote on Richard sucks. Just thought you should know.

[Nachomamma8]

Why should a claimed CPR Doctor be lynched, again?

And obviously he can't just say "oops, a townie died" now that we're telling him to target who he finds scummiest...

[Nachomamma8]

*sigh*

Richard is bad wagon.
Charlie is bad wagon.
SSBF is okay wagon.
EGL IS GOOD WAGON.

@NM8: Say town attacks 3 players relatively consistently and evenly. How does scum know the rest of your town rankings? They don't and can't. Picking off high pro-town looking people just helps them and hurts the town.

If the town is attacking 3 players relatively consistantly and evenly, then scum kills the most vocal. They don't care about your town rankings because they are looking for those who are the biggest threats to them. They can't kill anyone who finds them town because of WIFOM and such, and it would also leave them defenseless when day rolls around...

@nm8: EGL isn't scum. Your case is nothing.

He isn't? And you know this... how?

[Nachomamma8]

Twomz, when I originally provided the case, everyone ignored it, and there's not really a whole lot I can do in response to that. Yeah, I can form some ridiculously stretched case against him that will make more people pay attention, or I could just spam the thread with "LOOK AT EGL CASE AND RESPOND TO IT".

Magua, the directed vig kill plan sucks. Let's say ONLY millar dies. Does that mean we line up the mislynch for tomorrow? Let's say no one dies. How do we know mafia didn't just decide to no-kill?

[Nachomamma8]

WHY AREN'T WE LYNCHING HIM YET???

[Nachomamma8]

Boo, Charlie.

Join the EGL wagon and be smart like Jahudo...

[Nachomamma8]

Chrono... good job reading.

Case against Shattered Viewpoint

The first thing that really bugs me is that early in the day, he would frequently change his vote. No explanation behind it and dodged Kmd4390's question on him on numerous occasions. To this date, I doubt he answered Kmd4390's question on him. Also on his votes, he would give next to no information

ISO: 38: He basically ignores the case that Magua made back in Magua'a ISO: 0. When Magua asked if Shattered Viewpoint had anything to defend against his case, he basically said "Oh, there's no case for me to defend against.". Which quite frankly, is a pile of crap.

He has stayed in RVS throughout the majority of the game. No attempt to scum hunt, no attempt to get serious, and neglects other things that makes a good townie.

His current vote on me gives no explanation on why I was scummy. He has put absolutely no effort toward trying to get my lynched, which makes it more obvious that he is not caring about the game.

Also look at Magua's ISO 0, who makes a good case against him. Let me say this. This post is meant to get his butt lynched.

[Nachomamma8]

Plenty of wagons have built up and exploded without a case. The one on EGL is not one of them.

@KMD: Join the EGL wagon. Your top scum read vehemently opposing it shows we're at least on the right track...

[Nachomamma8]

Oh, look.

EGL is making promises he has no intentions to keep.

And I'm also betting that there are at least two scums on the Richard wagon right now. One kill last night suggests that Richard might be the only town killing force, meaning that if they can lynch him today, then there will be no possible way to kill millar without giving scum an extra kill...

[Nachomamma8]

Oh, look.

EGL is making promises he has no intentions to keep.

And I'm also betting that there are at least two scums on the Richard wagon right now. One kill last night suggests that Richard might be the only town killing force, meaning that if they can lynch him today, then there will be no possible way to kill millar without giving scum an extra kill...

And you know this how? (the EGL part moreso than the wagon part)

I guess I'm just psychic, Amished.

[Nachomamma8]

Directing a vig's shots is okay in certain circumstances.

Directing a CPR Doc's shot? Never.

[Nachomamma8]

Buddying of Richard...

Don't remember what you're talking about.

Are you talking about that one part where I was defending the claimed vig because having no vig with a lynch-only BP is bastardly, and if Richard is scum, the real vig will take care of him during the night, and failing that, counterclaim him in the morning and because lynching him now would only be beneficial for scum because if Rich is town, it would leave us with no way to take care of millar?

Orrr the part where I defended against directing him because that allows scum to manipulate him through night actions and most likely goad us into mislynching him tomorrow? Because the odds suggest that one of the following are true: 1) Millar is NK-Immune Scum, 2) Scum have Roleblocker, 3) Scum have Maf Doctor, 4) Scum have one-shot vig, and having any one of these four powers would mean that Richard gets screwed over, and Mafia get an NK today, then a mislynch tomorrow, then an NK the next day again, and maybe even a skipped day phase if they're lucky while a Non-Directed Richard CPR Doc might hit scum and get them to do the millar vigging for us?

Oh, yeah.

I remember.

[Nachomamma8]

Xite... your mafia meta on Richard is null because he wasn't actually mafia at the time...

[Nachomamma8]

@Xite:
How is he detrimental to the town if he isn't scum? He is quite literally the ONLY way we can get rid of millar without risking losing a day.

And SSBF, I'd definitely agree with lynching him if there's a no kill since his kill isn't being directed.

[Nachomamma8]

You want me to reread 51 pages so you don't have to point out ONE thing?

Also, EGL has 4 hours to provide us with at least part of his catchup post...

[Nachomamma8]

Hmm...

Rereading the game is probably a good idea for me at this point.

[Nachomamma8]

Richard is scum because I think that if there was a scum roleblocker, they would've been on Twomz Night 1. Richard's also been far scummier than Ythan, so there are more points against him.

Vote: RichardGHP

Xite is scum because she was CONVINCED that Richard was the right lynch yesterday, but now today, even though it's become more likely that Richard is scum, she doesn't want to lynch him.

Ani, you're still misunderstanding... read what CPR Docs are.

[Nachomamma8]

http://mafiascum.net/wiki/index.php?tit ... r#Sanities

[Nachomamma8]

@Mod: Can we have an extension due to holy needing to be replaced yet?

No. No extension.

This day has been dragged out long enough. There has been a kill claimed, and a kill counterclaimed.

You either believe the claimer, or the counterclaimer, or you have a good reason for why both are town. All of these outside votes (SSBF voters, I'm looking at you) should NOT exist because I know I sure as hell haven't heard a good reason for both Richard and Ythan town yet.

Just hammer already :/

[Nachomamma8]

@Rhinox: Definitely.

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Xite91

I don't like how hard she attacked Richard D2, only to flip and call him "confirmed town" on D3 based on faulty reasoning. I think she was just scum trying to get town cred by staying off the lynch of a PR. Also, I hate how she's been using a case on SSBF she's made 20 pages ago to continue to push through a lynch.

[Nachomamma8]

Ani and kmd, with a side of Locke or you.

[Nachomamma8]

@Nacho: Are the points against SSBF not valid anymore because they happened so long ago?

If we didn't bite when the points were fresh, then that means you might need to try harder and bring some new ones up if you actually want SSBF to be lynched.

Has he done *anything* pro-town?

Yeah.

For one, he actually gives reasons instead of mindlessly bandwagoning like most people. He's put a good amount of effort into this game, and has consistantly been active (a feat I unfortunately cannot accomplish in 90% of my games...). I could quote specific posts, but this question is a lazy+stupid one and isn't worth that much time and effort.

[Nachomamma8]

First, I said I'm "more inclined to believe ythan's town atm" not that he's confirmed town. But considering the way richard flipped, I at least know he's not lying, he was the one that nk'd millar. I'm going to leave him be for now and if he becomes scummier in my eyes I'll go after him, but my case around him fell mostly apart when richard flipped VT

I was referring to how you called Richard confirmed town.

Second, I gave my reasons for richard like 87986876587687568 times, so I'm not going to again. Read the thread

If you want me to take your vote off you, then please don't play this game again. I've already read the thread, and I don't feel like reading it again to find something that might not even be there.

Third, yes it's partly based on the case 20 pages back, but it's also based on the points myself and others have been making on him ever since. Honestly, I can't be bothered to make a case every page, and with the way I post, I'm sure the rest of the players here would also like me to refrain from doing so.

See response to Amished.

[Nachomamma8]

1) If you aren't confirming Richard as town in that post, then I have no idea what you're trying to say there.

2) How does Ythan having the one-shot confirm Richard as town? I'm pretty sure no one was disputing Ythan receiving the one-shot; we were trying to figure out whether Richard was telling the truth or not...

3) Obviously not enough people bit, which is the point.

[Nachomamma8]

1) But if there was only a Twomz kill, then Richard still wouldn't have been confirmed because scum could've just blocked Ythan. And the rest of the lines were explaining how Ythan's one-shot being proved made Richard more town, which I STILL don't understand.

2) In certain cases? In what certain cases...?

3) And if people aren't reading the thread, then they're not going to read some huge case that's 20 pages back.

[Nachomamma8]

At this point, I really don't see any possibility whatsoever of Xite being town. I mean... What townie would spend their time and effort making a case like this, and then suddenly vote-hop onto Plum because she's calling Ythan town...? Especially in the time-frame Xite did it in...

[Nachomamma8]

@Nacho: What do you think of the Plum/raider slot? What do you think of my day 1 vote analysis, and stated suspicion of you? (While I'm at it, what do you think of my suspicion of Ani?)

Plum is town.
I'm not going to pretend to understand your day 1 vote analysis.
Your suspicion of me is understated and wrong (I mean, what did you expect me to say...?)
Your suspicion of Ani is also understated, but probably right.

Any reason why you chose to call me out at this point?

[Nachomamma8]

@Xite: I'm going to do a bit more rereading on you know. The Richard thing makes sense to me now, but I'm still having trouble understanding why you dropped the SSBF case so readily...

But I will reread, (I'll most likely have time on either Thursday or Friday), so I'll give you something more solid to defend against/drop the case then. For now though, my vote stays.

[Nachomamma8]

V/LA until tomorrow.

Sorry for not telling you.

[Nachomamma8]

I am failing miserably at keeping up with that game. Charlie, would you like to hold on to my vote for now?

[Nachomamma8]

I'm flattered, but proxy voting is a bad idea. Moreso, you're one of my prime suspects!

Why is that a bad idea?
If I was one of your top suspects, then why wouldn't you jump at the chance to take my vote away from me? Wouldn't you rather a town player be in control of my vote than a scum one?

[Nachomamma8]

By the way, I might be drowning in this game, but even I can see that Ythan is obvtown. There are FAR better things that scum could do with the one-shot than using it in a protown manner...

[Nachomamma8]

Nacho, how would you have used a one shot kill as scum when everyone knows you have it?

As scum?

Option one: Shoot Richard, so it would be two townies dying instead of one,and still earn town points for taking out someone who was incredibly anti-town.
Option two: Don't use it. If Millar dies, claim the kill anyway and rely on a roleblocked theory to keep me alive the next day. If there's a large uprising against me, shoot someone pro-town during the night and use it as a second nightkill. If there isn't keep holding onto it. If millar lives, claim I used the shot on him, and say Richard is confirmed town.

There's probably others I'm not seeing, but you get the point.

[Nachomamma8]

http://mafiascum.net//forum/search.php? ... 4&sr=posts

Vote: animorpherv1

[Nachomamma8]

People who are being replaced don't get prodded in my book, Batt.

[Nachomamma8]

EBWOP: Rhinox*

[Nachomamma8]

Unvote, Vote: animorpherv1

11 minutes for a double voter to follow it up, or two people to vote at once? Yeah, right.

[Nachomamma8]

V/LA for the weekend

[Nachomamma8]

Okay, well... I'm on my phone, and reading and writing on it is terrible. But I will say that Charlie is still town, and Plum is still town. Fishy I have no idea about but I'm sure I'll come to see during his catchup post. Ythan is definitely town, Batt is scum. Chrono is town, kmd is scum, jah is town, esp is town, amish is town, and everyone else is scum. I'll get a more definite post when the internet's back, though.

[Nachomamma8]

Amished DocPotter
rhinox CryMeARiver x2 votes
Ythan danakillsu x4 votes
Plum raider8169
chronopie x2 votes
Jahudo Chevre easjo682 x4 votes
Battousai Pitbunny
esuriospiritus Magua The King of Eggs
Locke Lamora Reverse Simplicity
kmd4390 x2 votes
fishythefish animorpherv1 carneybaby88
Charlie
holycon

[Nachomamma8]

Sorry to hear that Amished...

[Nachomamma8]

Kunkstar Amished DocPotter
rhinox CryMeARiver x2 votes
Ythan danakillsu x4 votes
Plum raider8169
chronopie x2 votes
Jahudo Chevre easjo682 x4 votes
Battousai Pitbunny
esuriospiritus Magua The King of Eggs
Locke Lamora Reverse Simplicity
kmd4390 x2 votes
fishythefish animorpherv1 carneybaby88
Charlie
holycon

[Nachomamma8]

rhinox (2){MS ---> rhinox}
Ythan (4){Diacra ---> Twomz --> Ythan
Richard ---> Ythan}
Chrono (2){Xite ---> Chrono}
Jahudo (4){EGL ---> SSBF ---> Jahudo
millar ---> SSBF ---> Jahudo}
kmd (2){SV --> kmd}

[Nachomamma8]

OH YEAHHHH

Vote: kmd4390

[Nachomamma8]

ISO #0: Amished-town likes to hit the ground running replacing in, and he definitely does that here. Townie points.
ISO #2: Useless posting. No reason for town to post it that I can see, but could easily see scum gaining towncred here. Scum points.
ISO #7: Reading what Elli posts? And noticing mistakes that Elli makes? Townie points.
ISO #28: Strong vote. Townie points.
ISO #45: Another strong vote. More townie points.
ISO #47: Where the hell did this Chrono vote come from? Scum points.
ISO #52: One of the better SSBF cases I've seen during the course of the game. Town points.
ISO #78: Secret scumtell.
ISO #87: Goodposting, town points.
ISO #91: "I was sure that Xite was cop". :/

[Nachomamma8]

6/4
+2
Scumminess heavily focused during later play, probably due to family stuff. Overall, town.

[Nachomamma8]

ISO #6: Good point on raider. Town points.
ISO #12: You should really read closer. Scum points.
ISO #19: You give the SV wagon lip service...
ISO #20: ...then pull our before the last big push of momentum. Scum points.
ISO #32: Good response. Town points.
ISO #40-#47: VOTEHOPPING GALORE OH BABY! Scum points.
ISO #49: Crying about the fast lynch but not actually calling anyone out. Scum points.
ISO #50: Sounds like Rhinox has a bit of inside knowledge that Ythan and Richard are town, and is thus hanging off their wagons... Scum points.
ISO #72: I gotta say that I hate it when people make a list of about 6 people and says that they're okay with lynching everyone else. If Rhinox flips scum though, I'll be pretty confident in Amished-town. I don't think that Rhinox-scum would throw a huge red flag over his partner's head like that. Scum points.
ISO #73: This vote doesn't surprise me, which is a good thing. Town points.
ISO #76: I haven't really seen solid reads from Rhinox in a while. Yeah, they suck, but they're still reads. Town points.

[Nachomamma8]

4/6
-2
Recipient of MSH's vote, which means major town points for the Rhino. but a glance through ISO suggests more likely scum than more likely town. So I guess the question is: who's reads do I trust more? Micheal's or mine? Overall, leaning scum.

[Nachomamma8]

ISO #57 and #58 are talking about Kunstar (formerly Amished), and #58 and #59 are talking about Rhinox. And yeah, I'll label them more clearly now JUST FOR YOU.

[Nachomamma8]

At this point? Yes.

[Nachomamma8]

Get a bearing in this game again. In case you haven't noticed, I've been a bit off my game.

[Nachomamma8]

In posting it, I mean, if it's not for anyone else.

Just because it's not for anyone else doesn't mean it won't help anyone else.

Plus, it's so much easier to just post in the little quick reply window below as opposed to opening a whole new window...

[Nachomamma8]

Unvote, Vote: Chronopie

[Nachomamma8]

V/LA until Monday.

[Nachomamma8]

@Nachomamma: Why did you vote your town? It was 3 days before deadline. Was Plum a stronger town read for you?

Yes. Plum is my strongest townread at the moment.

What did your Ani/Fishy read end up being yesterday, or were you still not sure?

Town. I liked his defense, and I like his play a lot at the moment. His hammer on Chrono also seemed town to me, too.

[Nachomamma8]

Jah, I voted Chrono because at that time, he was at 7 votes and Plum was at 8, so I really wasn't expecting that any other wagon was going to rise up in time to save Plum.

Also,

Vote: Battousai

.

I'll try to get more of a case up later, but his most recent post set me off. Batt, you infer in your post that the main reason for lynching kmd last night was that there was no kill last night. Your explanation for this was that the scum were running out of townie looking people to kill, and so they intentionally no-killed because they were afraid that their scum who had townie vibes was going to get lynched because people wondered why he wasn't being NK'ed? I've read this over a couple of times, and the only way that I can seriously interpret this is scum trying to get someone lynched off their kill being blocked. You pretty much say everyone defending kmd is his partner and is protecting him, but why would they go through so much trouble defending someone who got their only vote from a Day 1 VI lynch, especially if we're as close to LyLo as you suggest we are?

[Nachomamma8]

Fishy, I don't know what to think about your claim. I don't see a reason for claiming that you protected someone else last night as town; now the scum know that they don't have a doctor to worry about, so they can kill without worries of their target being protected. And Batt asking you to claim this makes me think my read of him is correct, since I have no idea what information he expects to get out of it. Information that benefits the town, anyways.

Kunk, why didn't you vote holy? There's no reason not to have your vote on her if she's you're main suspect and she doesn't have any votes on her, now is there?

[Nachomamma8]

Hmm... Rhinox is town for his latest comments. Plum is... not sure. Probably mafia.

Charlie, those are your reasons for voting, correct?

[Nachomamma8]

I'm here, just caught up in the weekend.

I'll try to respond to your re: Batt tomorrow, Jahudo.

[Nachomamma8]

So...

I just got done with a paper I had put off until the last two days.

Now, here I am one day before deadline at 3 am, cranking out a case I promised like two weeks ago.

I have a problem, I think.

Anyways, I'm voting Batt because of a combination of the whole Ythan-Richard situation, Batt's suspicion of Plum, and Batt's suspicion of kmd.

Batt came in attacking Ythan strongly when he replaced in, keeping the assault up for the majority of the day while defending Richard. Then suddenly, he finds Richard the best lynch of the day, but still manages to distance from it by calling it an "information", and announcing from a 2 post banter session that he has suddenly found Ythan pro-town. This switch from Ythan to Richard is too quick and too poorly explained. Then, the next day, he posts a bunch of mumbo jumbo and votes SSBF, who was, if I'm not mistaken, the counterwagon for Richard yesterday. Of course, this vote doesn't last long and is followed by a vote for Ythan that apparently isnt moving for the entire day... which is later explained to be because Batt doesn't like playing with him, he's not that strong of a scum tell, SSBF's a better lynch anyways. This vote was explained with an ISO that hadn't came yet, and a "just in case I don't make it on before deadline" clause which only makes sense when you strongly believe one is scum or town over the other... Batt, of course, hasn't suggested either during the game. In short, Batt tends to focus on Ythan a lot more than he should, and focus less on who he's actually voting for.

...and its 4 am now, and my internet's spotiness has made case-writing quite a daunting task.

So I'll briefly touch on the rest of it. Plum suspicion seemed to come only after she attacked him because he didn't really follow up with any of the other members in the scumteam prediction that weren't mentioned at all. He kept on suspecting Plum to avoid commenting on the chrono lynch (the lynch of one of the scumteam predicted), and he really hasn't made an effort to point out why Plum is scum when not tied with kmd. I also would like to point out it's unlikely that we don't lynch a single scum for 4 days, then suddenly wagon 2 with no real third counterwagon.

His suspicion of kmd is reaching at best. His insistance at everyone calling or thinking kmd is a bit odd, considering that I haven't seen that sentiment myself, and is most likely to be coming from scum who is trying to get a player he regards as a threat lynched.

Ill try to fill in the cracks before deadline, but I doubt I'll get the chance.

[Nachomamma8]

So...

I just got done with a paper I had put off until the last two days.

Now, here I am one day before deadline at 3 am, cranking out a case I promised like two weeks ago.

I have a problem, I think.

Anyways, I'm voting Batt because of a combination of the whole Ythan-Richard situation, Batt's suspicion of Plum, and Batt's suspicion of kmd.

Batt came in attacking Ythan strongly when he replaced in, keeping the assault up for the majority of the day while defending Richard. Then suddenly, he finds Richard the best lynch of the day, but still manages to distance from it by calling it an "information", and announcing from a 2 post banter session that he has suddenly found Ythan pro-town. This switch from Ythan to Richard is too quick and too poorly explained. Then, the next day, he posts a bunch of mumbo jumbo and votes SSBF, who was, if I'm not mistaken, the counterwagon for Richard yesterday. Of course, this vote doesn't last long and is followed by a vote for Ythan that apparently isnt moving for the entire day... which is later explained to be because Batt doesn't like playing with him, he's not that strong of a scum tell, SSBF's a better lynch anyways. This vote was explained with an ISO that hadn't came yet, and a "just in case I don't make it on before deadline" clause which only makes sense when you strongly believe one is scum or town over the other... Batt, of course, hasn't suggested either during the game. In short, Batt tends to focus on Ythan a lot more than he should, and focus less on who he's actually voting for.

...and its 4 am now, and my internet's spotiness has made case-writing quite a daunting task.

So I'll briefly touch on the rest of it. Plum suspicion seemed to come only after she attacked him because he didn't really follow up with any of the other members in the scumteam prediction that weren't mentioned at all. He kept on suspecting Plum to avoid commenting on the chrono lynch (the lynch of one of the scumteam predicted), and he really hasn't made an effort to point out why Plum is scum when not tied with kmd. I also would like to point out it's unlikely that we don't lynch a single scum for 4 days, then suddenly wagon 2 with no real third counterwagon.

His suspicion of kmd is reaching at best. His insistance at everyone calling or thinking kmd is a bit odd, considering that I haven't seen that sentiment myself, and is most likely to be coming from scum who is trying to get a player he regards as a threat lynched.

Ill try to fill in the cracks before deadline, but I doubt I'll get the chance.

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Battousai

Resuming where I left off yesterday.

I wouldn't characterize it like that. His thought process looked fairly normal, from where he had a valid opinion in the beginning that transformed by thinking about other variables.

I'm inclined to disagree.

I don't see a valid thought process from ISO #13, where he asks SSBF to unvote Richard, to ISO #17 where he votes Richard himself. I especially don't see his thought process from ISO #16, where he says that he doesn't agree with the assumption that one of [Ythan, Richard] has to be scum and that Ythan is scummy for trying to paint it that way to ISO #17, where he says that a Richard lynch is optimal for information.

I'm not sure which 2 post banter you are talking about. I see a 2 post banter with Ythan, shortly after Batt's Richard vote, but that actually states he still thinks Ythan is scummy.

I'm referring the the banter that ends with Batt's ISO #26, where he says:

The question of whether Ythan is the lynch tomorrow is no. I find his actions today to be scummy, but his reactions to our little banter gave me a pro-town feel for him.

The counterwagon for animorph actually, but I think his vote there looked more like a placeholder without much confidence in it. Whether that was intentional or not, it doesn't feel like where he wanted to be voting at the time (Ythan).

Exactly. And I didn't see a motive for town Batt not voting where he wanted to in that situation; the best motive I could come up with was that he wanted some time to see town sentiment versus Ythan before attacking him again.

But we don't know Ythan's alignment for one thing

More evidence points to Ythan being town than Batt being town.

This according to who? And I think Fishy could count as a counter-wagon.

Charlie and Plum amount to a counterwagon...? First of all, if Plum were scum, I don't think she would mind bussing her partner back. Second of all, 2/23 votes isn't really a counterwagon in my book.

I'll elaborate on his reads on kmd in a minute.

[Nachomamma8]

Kmd, you're a good assumptionizer.

Batt's read of kmd, and to a lesser extent, his old read of Ythan, is scummy because of the way he goes about it. Everytime he makes a case on a suspect, he seems utterly convinced that he's attacking the Don Corelone of scum, and that the rest of the town is completely clueless to his target's scumminess (the last paragraph of ISO #81 is a pretty good example of this). What this accomplishes is weakening his case so no one bites, and he thus has a good place to park his vote while he tunnels for the majority of the day and essentially ignores everything that goes around him. His actual points are mostly reaching; in my opinion, the only valid point he has on kmd is that he's posting all of these VC analyses just to fluff-post, but this isn't that strong of a point coming from Batt, whose case on Ythan was essentially that, and that case was dropped with no explanation at all. As for the rest of his points...

Kmd is making town actions that result in scum benefits

...which in my mind, is essentially the definition of anti-town. Townie doing things that end up benefitting scum. Of course, I'm sure that's not what he meant, so I'm just throwing out this part.

wagon analysis that doesn't take into account reasons for voting

What wagon analysis DOES? Have you seen DGB or Ellibereth use wagon analysis before? It's extremely effective still; it's just a different style from your idea.

the fact he has me/ythan/rhinox as most likely scum but choose to focus on the person with 1 vote even though we are most likely near lylo

How is this a town action that benefits scum?

The fact that there wasn't a NK really tells me that the scum is almost out of town players to kill that give off a town vibe. If at least one of the scum falls into the category of "giving off a town vibe," lets call him Kmd, they can't kill him and they can't kill of one of the last townies that give off a town vibe as it would become suspicious later that "Kmd" is still alive and has multiple votes. To all of the town, I beg of you. Do not listen to those who defend Kmd's actions. They could be his partners trying to defend their most "townie" partner.

This is all crap. Even before Fishy's claim, this was still crap.

Really think. Is Kmd scum? You have to figure this out for yourself, don't allow others to influence the decision as they may have alterior motives. And when you do think about it, and you should, you will realize that Kmd is scum.

At this point, he's acting like there's some man behind the curtain who's blocking us from seeing kmd-scum; but who, other than plum (the person who were were wagoning, by the way), had been defending kmd and calling him the towniest of town?

[Nachomamma8]

Jahudo, what do you think of my batt case?

kmd, you've said some pretty obvious things in your last post. Were you planning on contributing anything, or...?

[Nachomamma8]

Batt, if the chance of lynching kmd is low, then why aren't you trying harder to lynch him? Or working on advancing the case on someone else?

To the rest of you, why does it matter if we have one scumteam of two? I don't really think anyone's even gotten together a two player scumteam yet, let alone a 5 or 6 player scumteam...

[Nachomamma8]

Like... who?

Certainly you're not just going to keep your old suspects?

What do you think about Batt, Ythan?

[Nachomamma8]

asking me what I think about Batt and Ythan?

[Nachomamma8]

I do think that there was at least one chrono busser (probably more, considering he was a one-shot ninja with the tracker already dead). Of all the votes on the wagon, I'm think that Rhinox's and holy's were the most suspicious; Rhinox voted chrono early, and commented that he was glad that chrono was "finally getting attention" even though he backed off chrono being scum a bit earlier, and didn't even have him in his top 5 scum team picks. Holycon, on the other hand, voted really late when it really didn't matter anymore and said that she found chrono the scummiest hands down even though I don't really remember her attacking Chrono a whole lot before.

I'd much rather focus on people that were off the wagon, though. Like Batt, Esurio, kunk, Ythan...

I mean, I really don't want to settle for less than a Batt lynch when he doesn't even have the decency to respond to my case.

The other three were town reads that are now spiraling into scum territory. Although Ythan's lurking is the oddest; I KNOW he doesn't lurk as town, and I KNOW he doesn't lurk as scum, so I need to do some rereading there...

[Nachomamma8]

@Charlie:
In my response to your question, I ignore your question and instead provide a link.
http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 7#p2586627
I believe you know what I did there.

[Nachomamma8]

What am I to do now? I'm really tempted to unvote, but I'm sticking to my guns.

Presenting your case on me would be a damn good start. Every theory you've brought up so far (clustering, the whole I'm scum because in the last game I'm scum) aren't really defendable, and it's unfair to push a case against someone without letting them into the secret of what the case actually is.

[Nachomamma8]

Batt, two things.

1) Jahudo IS confirmed beyond the shadow of a reasonable doubt. He has had pretty good town play, and he was protected once by Fishy's one-shot doc, then the next night Fishy the bodyguard was killed by NK. We shouldn't even worry about him NOT being confirmed because if there are two scumteams I'm sure one of them will take care of him soon enough.

2) I can't see us having any less than 3 scum left. So, at a best case scenario, we'd have to lynch 3 consecutive scum and get 3 consecutive town reads right. I don't think that'd help us in the least bit.

3) I presume you didn't say "let's lynch people with a lot of votes" because you have only one... right?

[Nachomamma8]

1) Batt. I think I've explained my read on him enough, and his refusal to address anything that has been brought up against him since he's "going to be lynched anyways" is scummy as hell.

2) kunkstar/esurio - These are both replacements that came in the game strong, then immediately began lurking to victory. They both replaced in around the same time, and they've been voting together for the entire time since Amished was replaced.

3) Rhinox. I don't like his play today at all. He will not accept that Chrono was lynched without being bussed. Fair enough. He has strong town reads on 2/4 unconfirmed people on the wagon other than himself. Fair enough. Yet, he still doesn't vote holy or I, which shows that the whole wagon theory was just a cheap attempt to not take a position on Charlie versus Batt.

[Nachomamma8]

Don't think I'll be stubborn about this.

I'm more receptive to having my mind changed now that's Charlie's claimed; I doubt that there's another protective role after a CPR Doc claim only counterclaimed by scum, a one-shot doctor protect, and a bodyguard flip.

[Nachomamma8]

I'm up for massclaim. I'll also respond to Batt when he's done with everything; for now, I'd rather pursue some other suspects.

^^^read as: desparately trying to lobby for support of my top lynch choices.

No. Voting is not "desperately lobbying" if it has absolutely nothing behind it, and posting the crap you did yesterday without attacking OR voting us is also not desperately lobbying.

So I haven't voted for holy (or you) yet because I've been having a bit of trouble getting any support. Tells me I'm probably on the right track, really.

If you're not getting any support whatsoever, it's usually because you're pushing half-assedly.

And since I'm not getting any support, I've been spending a lot of focus on this group today: {ythan, charlie, batt, (kunk), (esuris)}, not just charlie vs batt.

Ok. So you've focused on Ythan too, that's nice. But you still didn't vote any of them...? Do you honestly believe you'll get people to vote for a person if you aren't...?

You say I'm cheaply attempting to not take a position on charlie vs. batt, but in the quote above, I all but spelled out that I didn't want to have to take a position on anyone in the group I listed about today because I felt I had better odds lynching scum elsewhere.

I'm probably reading this wrong, but this seems like a direct contridiction to the quote before this. And again, why were you still not voting?

[Nachomamma8]

Batt, pick next.

[Nachomamma8]

The game is stalled.
I don't have too much faith in massclaim.
I'd just like to get this game moving.

[Nachomamma8]

VT.

[Nachomamma8]

@Rhinox: Could you link/make a case on me or holy, please? Because I'm reading through your ISO, and I just can't see those rallies you're talking about.

[Nachomamma8]

I also haven't forgotten you, Batt. I'm still waiting for that response.

[Nachomamma8]

Ythan, why didn't you lightning rod the day after Fishy bodyguard died?

[Nachomamma8]

I would have targeted people who I suspected of being scum when there was someone I found worth protecting.

[Nachomamma8]

Target scum, something bad happens to you

Something bad? Like being killed? Basically you'd be a bodyguard who was looking to target the killer instead of the killee.

target town, town-directed action is diverted

We had three nonvanillas flipped by D3. If you did target town, there wasn't a big chance of you hitting something other than the VT.

Plus only two shots, I was definitely saving it on the off chance a good use came up.

Like trying to hit scum after Fishy died and we had a confirmed town?

On top of all of this, why didn't the two-shot claim give you pause at all? Two-shot abilities are rare, and they don't really add to the believability of a fake-claim at all. Didn't you think it was more than pure coincidence? Also, didn't it seem interesting to you that he had exactly two commutes to your two lightning rods, which meant two nights of NK immunity for you?

[Nachomamma8]

What pisses me off is that WE'RE doing more research into Ythan's role than Ythan himself did. And if you got a role with an odd name you hadn't seen before, wouldn't you decide to do the research?

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Ythan

[Nachomamma8]

That has nothing to do with alignment.

Then why did you care about his claim? Considering you weren't planning on even looking at it to see if it made sense or to compare it to your own at all...

disregarding the rest of the game before the MC.

The rest of the game? Like... the situation with Richard? Nothing else you've done in this game has been significantly pro-town...

[Nachomamma8]

Obviously I'm not going to drop everything I have on Batt and Rhinox just yet, but you've jumped a lot higher in my suspicions right now. Especially since you completely ignored Batt and holy these past couple of days and NOW they're suddenly viable lynch candidates for you? That's a load of crap.

[Nachomamma8]

The problem is how many scum are left.
If there's four scum left like I'm assuming there are, then a mislynch + NK means that it'll be four scum versus 3 town which means even town had all the the votes, it would still be game over.

[Nachomamma8]

I would love a kunk lynch today.

[Nachomamma8]

I would rather hold a Batt lynch until we see a Ythan flip.

[Nachomamma8]

Batt, do you have reason to believe that there are two scumteams?

[Nachomamma8]

Okay, Ythan.
Hammer your scumbuddy now.

[Nachomamma8]

Unvote, vote: kunk

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: kunk

[Nachomamma8]

Not voting yet because my two votes would put ythan in hammer range.

Why does that matter?

When I made the list, as I've stated previously, I had a small group of town, and a very small group of scum. That meant I had a large group of neutrals. That didn't seem to give much information, so I split the neutrals up (as I didn't want to show that someone, like kunk, is just as scummy as someone who is leaning town. So to sum it up, neutral scum and neutral town are closer to the neutral than to the town/scum spectrum.

But what made you think he was scum? Why was he neutral scum instead of neutral town?

[Nachomamma8]

Oh, I see. I misunderstood your post :/

[Nachomamma8]

I'm going to reread esurio and Batt.
Rhinox has a sexy new avatar.

[Nachomamma8]

I doubt esurio is town.
Batt, responses to my ISO #73 and ISO #74.

[Nachomamma8]

One team, three scum left.

I don't see where the hell Rhinox got one from.

[Nachomamma8]

Batt, I've managed to ignore your response for so long because I thought more was coming. Sorry about that.

came in strong against Ythan- I hadn't read yet, only saw the double claim, and jumped on Ythan because everyone else was on Richard/spouting Ythan must be town. My "assault" for the rest of the day was trying to slow the quick wagon on Richard down in order to get more information for the day and it wasn't proven that Richard was beyond a doubt scum at that point (Ythan could have been lying/third party RB). I "distanced from the wagon" I didn't think Richard was scum, but the quick wagon on him earlier was scummy and his lynch would have given us information. ---- To sum up that paragraph- I've been vocally against Ythan, while my votes weren't. I could see that as me trying to distance myself from him, but you can't really hold that against me UNTIL Ythan flips as the basis of the argument is derived from BOTH me and Ythan are scum.

Right. In retrospect, I'm actually more uncomfortable with this section now that Ythan's flipped town instead of scum. Scum do have the luxury of knowing alignments, so this reads as an attempt to clear himself through the entire "Ythan + me is a team or I'm town" scenario. ScumBatt certainly had reason to try to discredit a player who was (at first) obvtown. I don't think that his attacking of Ythan at that point was scummy now that he's clarified it.
Two questions, though. 1) Third Party RB? What do you mean by that, and why did you think it was a possibility? 2) If you thought the wagon was scummy, then why did you attack Ythan as opposed to the people actually on it?

Second paragragh- Plum suspicioun was based on the fact Plum/KMD were basically the same player. Everything Plum said KMD supported. Everything KMD said, Plum supported just about. This was the strongest relationship in the game in my mind. I was on KMD that day and focused on him (tangently focused on Plum for her defense of him and the way she waved me off as scum for attacking him) and therefore was left near the end of the day with the option of a Plum or Chrono lynch. Who should I want lynched, the person who walks hand in hand with the scummiest player in the game, or the person I felt was neutral scum? I went with Plum, independently scummy based on Raider's vote hopping D1, and her buddying to a player that should be unknown alignment to her.

Why didn't the Plum flip change your mind about kmd, then?

To the fact that it was unlikely to wagon 2 scum players at the end of day when we previously had 4 town mislynches... Statistically, as more town players die, the more likely scum will be lynched. With 8 down (I think 8 down at the time) and with an estimated 6 scum, the chances of wagoning scum is 40% (6/15). For the second, thats 35.7% (5/14). But that doesn't account for the human element.

Fair enough.

Also, I meant to say ISO #74 & #75, not #73 and #74.
In #74, I'd like your SSBF vote explained a little more.
ISO #75 is referring to your kmd read. WIFOM is not an adequate defense for that post.

[Nachomamma8]

Es, you still haven't explained why you piggybacked off Batt's terrible reasoning.

Locke is town. You should know this. After kunk DK'd kmd, locke had 11 votes. Plus kunk, 12 votes. Meaning that he would've only needed one more member to win. In other words, if you believe that he is scum, you only think that there's one scum member left. Meaning that you should be putting a bit more effort in your Locke read.

Rhinox, the same goes to you. Why don't you believe Locke is scum? He fits in your bussing theory, doesn't he?

[Nachomamma8]

#74 - Just explain your SSBF vote a bit more.

So why should I believe locke is scum, especially if you think there are 3 scum left?

You shouldn't. You should, however, at least look a bit deeper into him. I must ask though, what does my belief have to do with anything?

Nacho, from your POV {Rhinox, Batt, esurio, holy} 3 scum here out of 4? Who do you see as the likely town in the group?

I think the town of that group would be holycon, hands down. Likeliest scum is still esurio for me.

[Nachomamma8]

Magua:
Very, very fluid reads. No scum or town read he has is really explained in depth, and they tend to change pretty often. Like from his ISO #2 to ISO #4; he goes from calling Xite scum to town. Between his first reads list and second reads list, the only consistency is CSL being scum. He plays under-the-radar pretty much the entire time he plays; no significant opinions, no real aggression towards anyone, nothing.

Also, interesting quote:

Chronopie: I started in on this because of Amished's repeated postings that Chronopie was scum. I've come to agree. Not enough to take my vote off of Charlie, but several good cases against Chronopie have been made. Addendum edit: Chronopie also blatantly fishes in #878.

Setting up Amish to gain towncred on the Chrono lynch.

Next, look at this esurio quote!

Chronopie - lol active lurkers. Rhinox nailed this guy in his iso read. Don't like the "intent-to-hammer SV" post, it just reads to me like "hey look, I'm not lurking! Here, let me announce my intent to hammer a townie." e_e

Looks familiar. Hmmm...

Esurio is scummy for tunneling on Plum, then becoming completely useless after Plum's lynch, as well as a few miscellaneous things (see: Batt reasoning).

[Nachomamma8]

http://mafiascum.net//forum/posting.php ... &p=2635421

I did vote ythan earlier, however the mod must have missed it. But I'll unvote now anyways

There is, however, reason not to vote. That reason is that voting is pointless as the only people who can manage a wagon would be kmd or ythan (in which case, a ythan led wagon would contain scum due to the numbers needed and would be suspect). You should know who I think is scum if you've payed attention this game (of my suspects, those that are alive are kmd, followed by kunk, rhinox, ythan, and holy). Since kmd will not be lynched, nor would ythan since kmd is not willing to vote him, that leaves kunk, you (rhinox), and holy. Now of the available options, I'm not as positive on those that are left. So, I'll fall back on the person I feel is most likely scum, as I'd rather be voting for someone who isn't likely to be lynched if I feel they are scum over someone who I'm iffy on, that is likely to be lynched.

unvote
Vote: Kmd

...
what?

Sorry, I'm responding to your responses right now. I just saw that in your ISO and had to bring it up.

[Nachomamma8]

That link should be replaced with this:

Good game scum! We just lost as KMD has failed to release that if he is wrong, and he is, that ythan can hammer me, a townie will be killed tonight (kmd town most likely), and tomorrow will start with 7 players alive, 4 scum- 3 town? (meaning kmd has more than a 50% chance of giving scum his votes and winning). All of this in order to check and see if ythan is lieing.

THERE IS NO MORE WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION OF ROLES. THAT DAY HAS COME AND GONE A WHILE AGO. IF WE TRY AND CONFIRM YTHAN, THEN TOWN LOSES. IF YOU DO NOT BELIEVE YTHAN'S CLAIMS, YOU MUST LYNCH HIM. IF NOT, YOU TRY AND FIND SCUM ELSEWHERE. THERE IS NO "WAIT AND SEE" WITH YTHAN. IT'S IS HE SCUM OR IS HE TOWN, NO MIDDLE GROUND. NO WAITING FOR CONFIRMATION.

[Nachomamma8]

I came in strong against Ythan- I hadn't read yet, only saw the double claim, and jumped on Ythan because everyone else was on Richard/spouting Ythan must be town. My "assault" for the rest of the day was trying to slow the quick wagon on Richard down in order to get more information for the day and it wasn't proven that Richard was beyond a doubt scum at that point (Ythan could have been lying/third party RB). I "distanced from the wagon" I didn't think Richard was scum, but the quick wagon on him earlier was scummy and his lynch would have given us information. ---- To sum up that paragraph- I've been vocally against Ythan, while my votes weren't. I could see that as me trying to distance myself from him, but you can't really hold that against me UNTIL Ythan flips as the basis of the argument is derived from BOTH me and Ythan are scum.

First part, I understand the urge to go against the grain.
Second part, no. You can distance from someone as town or scum, especially if you want to distance from a lynch. Plus, it's also not uncommon to throw softballs as a townie target that's acting as your favorite chewtoy, as Ythan was. I also hate the attempt to confirm yourself based on Ythan's townflip.

Second paragragh- Plum suspicioun was based on the fact Plum/KMD were basically the same player. Everything Plum said KMD supported. Everything KMD said, Plum supported just about. This was the strongest relationship in the game in my mind. I was on KMD that day and focused on him (tangently focused on Plum for her defense of him and the way she waved me off as scum for attacking him) and therefore was left near the end of the day with the option of a Plum or Chrono lynch. Who should I want lynched, the person who walks hand in hand with the scummiest player in the game, or the person I felt was neutral scum? I went with Plum, independently scummy based on Raider's vote hopping D1, and her buddying to a player that should be unknown alignment to her.

If kmd was the person that "everyone called town, but nobody knew was scum" as you say he was, I wouldn't think that he would buddy with his scummates. If the scum team had designated someone to get votes, it makes waay more sense if they just bus their partners into the ground. That would get them more votes than buddying the hell out of them, wouldn't you think?

Numbers are nice, but they're nothing without situation.
And I felt that a lot of "scummy" people were being killed over the protown people, so I don't agree with your last point.

I have to check some things over regarding your second-to-last point re: 75, but other than that I don't really see too many problems with your response. I also have to check the SSBF thing because I remember it differently.

[Nachomamma8]

esurio

[Nachomamma8]

Vote: Rhinox

[Nachomamma8]

Holy and esurio.

[Nachomamma8]

I thought Charlie was cop for the longest time.

You're not the only one...