Mini 1005: Mafiaphobes! (Game over)

[Oso]

Vote:Tasky

California has a prison at a town callled aTASKYdero so obviously, he must be from there and is scum. Either that or my Okie accent led me to mispronounce Atascadero and this is pure bollocks.

[Oso]

Gah, I almost hurt myself laughing over that avatar

I'd love to know the LOL caption that went along with it.

[Oso]

Hell, I give this a go before I start.

.
.
1) Are you scum?
2) What's the role you prefer to play (nothing to uncommon please), which role do you prefer between townie and scum?
3) What role you hate having in the setup/play against (nothing uncommon please)?
4) What do you think about bandwagons in early game, what in late game?
5) How would you characterize your playing style?
6) What do you think about RVS?
7) How do you hope to find scum?

1-No.
2-VT/town - SK/scum
3-None really but not too fond of cult games.
4-BWs in early game: Unavoidable, so I have come to accept them. Late game: Don't like them generally. Why? Too much of an MD topic to get into in the middle of a game.
5-Logical. If people are making fallacious arguments, its a flag to start looking at their play and figure out why they are making them.
6-Neutral. Given I like logical play, any randomness skews my preferred play style but they are fun for thinking up one-liners based on peoples names/avatars.
7-See #5

[Oso]

Major contradiction here Tasky, as I see it.

- snip -

I'm not asking you anythink about this game... this is just so I can get a sort of personality profile... people tend to play differently when playing roles they like than if they play roles they don't like...
just because one says he likes to play cops, that doesn't influence whether he is cop or not...

I think the vote kinda looked OMGUS...I mean if I refuse to answer your questions does that make me scum? Some people have different opinions, I found it odd though that you voted for Vezo without any concrete evidence other then the fact he didn't answer your question just like 80% of the rest of the people...just saying.

two things:
1. not answering questions is denying information... and thats scummy

- snip -

First saying that the questions have mostly nothing to do with this game except to help you build a personailty profile.

Then saying that not answering questions is denying information so therefore scummy?

What

Seems to me like you custom tailored a situation where you could auto-vote anyone as scummy based on not answering your questions. Add in the fact that you already noted that those questions were pretty much for your use alone and you get a situation where...wait for it... that not answering questions that have no direct bearing on the flow of the game except for one person is scummy? I'm sorry that answered them myself now.

What I'm not sorry for is that my vote is already on you from the RVS

UnVote:Tasky

Vote:Tasky

Just so there can be no mistaking that my RVS vote is now a serious vote.

[Oso]

I don't understand Oso's contradiction. I don't want to defend Tasky here because I think he's pretty scummy anyways, but I still don't get it.

Oso: I'd like you to answer these questions before we get deep into the game.

Friend: Ok, but they are not really game related, how does this help?

Oso: They don't really, just might be helpful to me as the game goes along, sort of build a personality profile on you.

Friend: Sounds pretty innocuous but I think I'll pass. They aren't helping the game as a whole as far as I can see.

Oso:But not answering questions is denying information... and thats scummy

Friend: But you said......

Oso:

SCUM

I apologize if that comes off as sarcastic. Best way i could illustrate it without hitting you with an 'Oso certified' text/logic wall. Basically, the contradiction, as I see it, comes in where Tasky comes in and says a list of questions basically have no real bearing on the game except to 'mainly to get out of the RVS' but he his willing to base scum reads off of people who won't answer them based off denying information. Information he has already stated that, in the post where he poses the questions, was nothing more than to get out of RVS. He keeps adding reasons though so I'm sure we are not through with this.

[Oso]

And that is fine Friend, more power to him if he can actually make it work reliably. My problem with the whole idea wasn't against the idea, but rather that he used a refusal to participate as a basis to call someone scum.

What I actually think of the idea is a discussion I would like to have. But not here, in the middle of an active game.

[Oso]

@ Friend. My opinion on diddin is pretty much neutral at the moment. Mostly because, while you pointed out that vote could be seen as opportunistic, I need more than a single instance of opportunistic behavior to consider that it is opportunistic AND because he used the contradiction to vote. I voted for that same reason myself so trying to find him scummy/null/town off that isn't going to work for me. Same goes for SSBF.

Unvote:Tasky

Why? Look at the discussion. Many people have pointed out how scum could possibly use his method against him and against town. Again, I don't want to get into a huge MD dissertation here but he has a theory of Mafia that he is trying to refine. Whether it works or not is moot. I think the contradiction I caught him in was a direct result of the fact that his trying to make his method work and he didn't think about what he was saying for that reason. Not because he was trying to lay some sort of trap.

Friend hit on the head here:

I see what you're getting at, I suppose. While I don't think not answering the questions is scummy, I think I can see why he does.

Based on the way Tasky has posted so far, if his questions are some sort of scum gambit, I am not seeing it.

[Oso]

@Oso: Why the change of heart? You were the one who brought up the contradiction in the first place.

I quote part of my last post

- snip -

I think the contradiction I caught him in was a direct result of the fact that his trying to make his method work and he didn't think about what he was saying for that reason. Not because he was trying to lay some sort of trap.

- snip -

Your comment that you thought not answering the questions wasn't scummy, but you could see how Tasky would think it was clarified it for me. He didn't contradict himself because he is scum but rather because he is trying to get his theory to work. Same contradiction still exists but my thoughts on his motivation for making it in the first place has changed.

[Oso]

especially since if you are posting and someone posts something in the meanwhile, you get notified by the forum mechanics...

Testing this statement by subscribing to topic and seeing if it ends up as a board notification or in my personal email box. Of course, me being the poster might hose it for me. So could the first person who see this post?

[Oso]

First person who see it that is playing in this that is....

[Oso]

It does? I mustn't have posted over another player since the board change then. Carry on. Don't mind the weird guy in corner

[Oso]

ITT=In This Thread

[Oso]

VOTE: KageLord

You case on vezo starts well no doubt about that. Points in there that made me go back and look myself.

You started to make me doubt you when you said this:

- snip -

....The first reason is that, if things did happen the way you say they did, that means your little post took at least 6 minutes to write. It doesn't seem like a few lines should take that long....

- snip -

Using out of game reasoning to base an in-game scumcall on. Bells start ringing. Any good player would know that it is impossible to base anything off of post time unless there is a wide gap (much more than 6 minutes) before trying to call bullshit on a ninja post. Since I'm not going to assume anyone is a bad player, I have to assume there is a reason behind that statement.

The here:

- snip -

EBWOP: That "few lines" I mention above is actually these two. Looking at it again... I'd say this should take a max of 3 minutes to right and submit.

- snip -

Now I'm sure he's scum. He narrows the time for calling vezo a liar.

What if I told you that it took me about 45 minutes to compose this and someone posted something similar just as i started? Would I be auto scummed in your eyes because of the discrepancy if I said I didn't preview before post and I was ninja'd. I mean, my god it's 45 minutes. Doesn't take into account the 4 phone calls I had though. The broke neighbor coming by to ask if he could bum a couple of cigarettes and the trip I made outside to smoke myself while filling up the outside cat's water dish so they don't maybe, I don't know, die of thirst because it's summer.

That didn't happen with this post because it didn't take 45 minutes but what I just described is pretty much the types of posting interruptions I deal with all the time during the weekdays.

And KageLord is trying to push a 6 minute, outside the game, discrepancy? Scummier than a stagnant frog pond in August is what that is.

[Oso]

True Oso, but all of that was written before he saw Vezo's post explaining why the post took particularly long to write. However, KageLord doesn't unvote afterward, which makes it seriously look like he's grasping for straws here.

FoS: KageLord

I t wasn't particularly long. That was the point of my post.

The scumminess of using a discrepancy like that to call scum, isn't that it he made it before vezo's explanation, it is that he tried used the discrepancy at all. Town don't (or shouldn't) use it. They may think it, I have myself on several occasions and discarded it, but the only reason I can see to use it in game is by scum trying to pile on as many reasons as they can for a lynch.

This may be just my view but using OOC actions to base in game decisions on is only non-scummy when doing the lurker hunt thing and only if you get a cycle of prod->excuse/no content post->prod->excuse/no content post and even there, mod replacement rather than lynching is a better option.

[Oso]

A brings up a fallacious argument against B, C points out that fallacy, so in a way C is defending B from A's attack... but as you said, this is not a scum-tell...
therefore your assumption that every defense is a scum-tell is wrong
QED

Please, for my sanity, quit trying to be right and start hunting scum. That display of logic would have been far more impressive had you went out and gathered together some things that you could use to convince yourself and the rest of the thread that what SSBF posted was not only wrong according your reasoning, but that it somehow tied into him being scum. Or maybe just not clutter up the thread with logic lessons if you think he is wrong but not scummy.

Plus, this is a post to avoid prod. If I don't get a chance tonight to post more tonight, this should cover any auto prods the mods has.

[Oso]

Ok, might as well do my take on the thread.

Tasky: Inital impression that he was trying to pull something with that RQS end to the Random Stage. I have already conceded my reasoning for that vote was probably wrong. Reading some of his posts lately, that impression hasn't changed. Willing to put him into the town category for now. I don't agree with a large portion of his method, but the attempt seems sincere as I really don't see any maliciousness in it.

jayfl383: Didn't jump out at me until i reread him in ISO and then again in context. This post(#116) pretty much sums up why he gets a town a read from me at the moment. I might not agree with all his conclusions but, as far as I can see, he is using a sound basis for them. I do agree that that vezo wagon has scum written all over it. Mainly because of whose on it and yes, that also means I think he may have his vote in the right place as well.

q21: Neutral with a slight bump towards town. He got a late start in the game but is making up for that and he is not throwing crap around just to see what sticks. Enough for me to not to put him as scum at all even if that means as I only see him as neutral.

Chibi, diddin, Quadz, SSBF, vezo and xvart: Pretty much unclassified at the moment. Chibi because of lack of posts. The rest basically because its seems you guys are jockeying around trying to get solid reads on people but I can't classify what you are doing as town or scum, most everything has washed null or scum/town tells in equal parts. Except vezo. Don't care about alignment there at the moment because a lot of conversation is being generated around him. Don't care right now if he's town or scum, I have no interest in lynching him today.

Friend: Tending scummy. But alot of that is based on an undefinable general itch rather than anything concrete to point to. Basically, that I don't think he is as thick as he was letting on earlier. On a re-read, I now hold the opinion that his interaction with me asking about my vote then unvote on Tasky weren't because he misunderstood them but rather that he was looking for some sort of contradiction or see if I would do some sort of weak sauce backpedal on my unvote. I reread my interaction with him wondering where my reasoning wasn't clear. Turns out I was perfectly clear and not just because I knew where I was going when I wrote them but no one else seems to have had any trouble understanding either the vote or the unvote. So, no vote right now on Friend either. I have no problem thinking he is scummy at the moment or even saying it, but I have no concrete evidence he is so, no vote at this time. But he is on my list of suspects.

KageLord: Scum. I have said it before. Saying it again. His original reasoning on vezo (sheeping was his point) is weak but not indefensible, starts to point at what might a legitimate pattern. He blows it from there on out though. I won't go into again but I will reference my vote post and his response post so you can have a quick reference to refrsh your memories.

Now this post. Go ahead and take a good look at it, while I quote a few things here.

..
ISO 1: Disagrees with SSBF. Says that quicklynching can be good with an example of a previous game

(no link and I personally think this could be taken as a little bit scummy, though I'll say it's null)

. Says scum do RQs more often then town (no examples/links). Doesn't like Tasky's response to vote (I personally see nothing wrong with Tasky's response, other than the previously discussed "is it scummy to not answer RQs"). Ignores Friend's direct request for links to back up the "subtle questions = scum".
..
ISO 4: Agrees with Oso and unvotes Tasky

(seems like first instance of sheeping to me, especially after appearing confident. but, we can give vezo the BotD here).

..
ISO 9: Responds to Friend's claim of fake scumhunting by saying Friend is now in the town pile

(possibly true or possibly just trying to appease Friend)

. Responds to my points by saying his phone rang in the middle of his post and the "noob pass" thing is a coincidence

(again possible, but I think that both being coincidences is unlikely).

..
ISO 11: "Analyzes" (in quotes since I'm not sure that one line or a couple words about each person should be considered a true analysis) wagon. Claims Friend defended Tasky

(which was already mentioned multiple times... more sheeping?).

Claims I'm pushing wagon for out of game reasons

(again, someone else's words/more possible sheeping).

Says we are the possible 3 scum (I'm unfamiliar with these minis and their setups, so... are there usually 3 scum or is it usually random or what?). Votes me, saying my last few posts are incredibly scummy.

Those are the points he made that I believe where he tries to link vezo's behavior as scummy.
Notice the bolded parts. In every one of those, except his points on ISO 11, he gives himself an out. Look at the wording "I think...but call it null' - 'seems like..but give benefit of the doubt' - 'possibly true or....' - 'again possible...is unlikely'. No matter what vezo's alignment turns out to be, he's given himself an out on all major points. "See, I told he was scum" or "I said right here in the game that I thought I could be wrong"

Then there is his point on ISO 4, giving vezo the benefit of the doubt on sheeping. Then in his commentary between his points on ISO 5/6 and ISO 7 he throws this in:

....If he really agreed with Oso and wasn't just sheeping,...

I thought he was giving vezo the benefit of the doubt there about vezo following me off the Tasky vote? But look at his words in his point on ISO 11 "...which was already mentioned mutiple times...more sheeping?" To me, it is obviously he just threw that whole giving vezo the benefit of the doubt into his first point about sheeping so he could be seen as making a fair assessment of vezo's play so far. He certainly didn't give vezo the benefit of the doubt on anything it seems.

He started off good by going after vezo for an emerging pattern that may have well had merit. He ended by being so eager to pile every little piece of crap he could find onto vezo that he become scummy in my eyes no matter if the original thought might have had some merit to it. His post I have quoted above is a post that is meant to lynch a player. Not scummy at all doing that, but because of the way he gave himself an out on the major points of his argument to avoid consequences if vezo flips town or take a major portion of the credit if vezo flips scum, makes this into a post that only scum would use. Either to kill a townie with deniability or get credit for a bussing.

My vote is already on KageLord and there it will stay. We have nine days to deadline so there is plenty of time so I urge all of you to read what he has said so far in Isolation and then in context and see what you think.

I will say this right out. This post is meant to get KageLord lynched. He's the lynch for the day in my opinion.

[Oso]

Yes, before I even read the rest of your post past that point, you are right. I put the Quote but there where It says "Tasky" and should say "KageLord" my bad there. All those quotes in my post are yours.

[Oso]

The point where I say you are leaving yourself an out and you counter that you are just showing uncertainty, sorry, I have found it to be a reliable scumtell.

As to Tasky, he and you are quite a bit different as while I may not agree with his style of play and methodology, I just don't see him as malicious (and by that I mean blatant scum behavior) at the moment. I do see your attack on vezo as malicious for the reasons stated in Post #191 and the post where I voted you.

As to why I don't care if vezo is scum or town now? Because I don't. Whatever his alignment is, I believe that his drawing a lot of heat, whether he intended to or not, has exposed scum. Namely you. If you get lynched and I am proved right, then I have no problem seeing if it can be done again tomorrow using vezo and I still won't care what alignment he is. If the conversation surrounding vezo keeps drawing out scum, I'm in favor of keeping him around until it doesn't. Then I'll consider looking at his alignment.

[Oso]

here your logic is faulty, Oso:
you are assuming that KageLord is keeping himself outs for both scenarios (vezo flipping scum/vezo flipping town)
assume KageLord is scum... he would then know whether vezo is scum or not... so he would not need to give himself possible outs since he could play just in the right way without having to keep the two possibilities open...
this is not saying that KL can't be scum, maybe he is, but if he is, for other reasons...

Not faulty (at least I hopes it's not), although I do have to admit it does seem that way on first blush. That is because I have put a fair dose of reasoning that has nothing really to do with logic in there and inferred a few things, one of which directly relates to why I'm not all that worried about vezo right now.

So I'll try to lay it out as completely as I can without using a wall.

1 - First twitch, KL votes vezo on something that may be legitimate but adds a secondary, supporting reason that, at least in my opinion, isn't used by town to support a case. Basing an in-game scumcall on out of game reasoning.

2 - Then the post I picked apart. The way it's laid out does allow him deniability and credit no matter which way vezo flips. I'll admit right here that does point at him being town if you are going to give him(KageLord) the benefit and go ahead and say he is unsure town. He thinks vezo may be scum but has indicated he's not sure. If this is the case and he flips town and/or vezo flips scum and I'm still alive, then KageLord has an excellent point and I'm going to have a lot of 'splainin to do.

2A - The flip side of that is if he is doing it as scum (my current thinking) any attack he makes will have some sort of an out if he knows the person he is attacking is town. It will be either in the attack posts themselves or based on blaming the play of the person being attacked in a post-lynch blame fest. You were right though, bussing doesn't require the attacker being unsure so my argument may fail in your eyes on that point alone. But it does help loads when the inevitable accusations of bussing come up post-lynch.

@All players: So wrap up now. KL used a scumcall in the beginning of his case on vezo that not only invalidated KLs attack in my eyes but triggered the scumdar as well. His continued attacked on vezo unfolded pretty much in same general way I have seen it happen before if he were indeed scum. The way he did it makes me think he isn't bussing though. He picked the weakest townie he could make any sort of case on at all and pushed it for all it was worth.

Is there a flaw in my case, getting back to Tasky's question? Yes, I could be wrong. I may have assigned wrong motivations where I shouldn't have or made assumptions where I shouldn't have. Occupational Hazard of Mafia and usually a fatal as well.

[Oso]

@xvart

Did you perhaps forget to close a quote tag some where. I think you are asking me a question in your last post but I'm not sure, it is in among quoted text.

[Oso]

Thanks, I thought that was it.

Yes, I do. But it does depend somewhat on if KageLord flips town or scum if he is lynched. As I stated earlier, the way KL constructed his attack makes me think that that vezo may indeed be town.

Since I do think that KL is scum, vezo right now is looking better in my eyes right now as well.

[Oso]

Welcome Sotty7.

[Oso]

Well, one thing for certain. I am not going off on a tangent here based on a three line post. And I won't speculate at the moment why I might think jay is doing it.

He needs to give some sort of an explanation beyond what is in his post.

[Oso]

Oh, and welcome Poirot. Glad you are here.

[Oso]

Ack. We got caught in some crazy storms here yesterday so I'm not caught up yet. Deadline is coming up, any chance of an

extension mod?

I'll second the extention request.

But, it shows that we do need to start narrowing the focus of this day. We have 10 votes spread over 5 players.

[Oso]

I know, I'm going back through myself to make sure I haven't been tunneling on KageLord too much for my own part and disregarding other things that I shouldn't have or maybe that I just flat missed.

[Oso]

Oso seems to be of the idea that someone is scummy for not being confident about the flip of his votee and he is consistent with his idea. Oso claims many times he is sure about Kagelord but if Kagelord were to flip town after a lynch, wouldn't Oso claim he was wrong and try to move on?

Yes, I would. And I would hope that my play up to that point would help get me out of any potential lynching party that might form because of it.

In the post you pointed out I conceded 2 things though, if KageLord flipped town, I'd have a lot of explaining to do, and the fact that pushing a case on someone who flips town has potentially fatal consequences for the person that pushed it.

Part of my playstyle. Good scumhunting requires the willingness on my part to be wrong. At some point I have to accept the fact that any given case I have on another player may be wrong and then abandon that doubt until something in the game (a post or a lynch) shows me that maybe I am wrong or defiantly wrong in the case of a flip . And there are consequences to that as well. Not only may I have just helped get a townie lynched, I may get lynched as well as a result of it.

[Oso]

Ok, did another read through and I can say that I am comfortable with KageLord vote so that is where it is staying.

Also, my read on Tasky and q21 are both pretty much still on the town side of the town/scum line. I had q21 as neutral but his participation and his post content have both nudged him up in my estimation.

The other town read I had (jay) and other suspicious read I had Poirot(was Friend) are in limbo at the moment because of jay's "jump in, cry scum and leave" post. Reserving any comment on either of these players until jay returns or it becomes obvious he isn't going to give an explanation.

Vezo, said it before, I have no interest in lynching him today myself mainly because of who is/was on his wagon. Kagelord is on it, Poirot was on it. But on a re-read, I can see how many of you see him as scummy. My basis for 'towning' him is mainly because of suspicions I have on two of the player's that were on his wagon.

xvart, had him unclassified earlier and neutral right now. Still don't have a definite town feeling from him but I do like what he is posting and don't mind having him around.

quadz. Back and forth on him because of his posts. Ends up with a mildly good feeling. Why? Because he went out of his way to correct a mistake he made here:

Oh, crap. I just did a quick re-read; I had forgotten that vezok had, in fact, acknowledged SSBF's post in an EBWOP. My apologies, vezok; I wasn't intending to misrepresent you.
.
- snip -

Granted, he continues to attack vezo in that post but at least he took a moment and made the earlier mistake right first.

Diddin, still washing neutral. Can't see anything in the way he is posting and the content that points to him maliciously trying to do something and what tells I could find that would indicate town/scum also tend tobe a wash. Might be helpful if he would quit being so timid. I do agree with him SSBF though.

SSBF, gotta say, I don't like his style so I will have to be careful not to let that bias me but, having said that, I do not like the way he talks in absolutes. I know that relates to the whole "defending anyone is always a scumtell" argument that others have mentioned but yeah, goes back to what Diddin mentioned about that type of logic helping to fuel mis-lynches. And the examples he quoted in response to q21's side of the 'defending' argument are just well, which shows me he a problem with being wrong or being shown to be wrong. Not scummy but certainly anti-town in my opinion. At the very least he'll be very difficult to work with in discussions here if something runs up against an absolute scumtell of his.

Sotty7(ChibiSanNub), sorry not enough of a body of posts to do anything with. Chibi started off well enough as far as activity but fell off. Which is why I am glad to sotty7 in the thread regardless of alignment. I hate unfilled inactive spots.

So, vote stays on KageLord. Suspicions of Poirot and good feelings on jay are on hiatus until jay clarifies his last or it becomes clear he isn't going to clarify them. No definite scum feelings towards anyone else.

[Oso]

Oso

- so you don't think that scum would want to correct a mistake he/she made?

Certainly they would. If it was to their advantage to do so. When I re-read quadz, I didn't see where he gained any real advantage to correcting that mistake. Other than maybe correcting something that may be used against him later. Or, perhaps, that he realized he made a mistake and honestly didn't want an uncorrected mistake laying out there, which was the interpretation I went with. It all goes back to what I said about him. It doesn't seem to me that he like he is doing anything maliciously at this point in the game. Are there things that bug me about him? Yes, there are but not severe enough to do more than make note of move on.

Oso, I'd like you to develop on your suspicions on me/friend just to be clear. Are they solely based on the fact that friend was in vezok's wagon? If not, why?

Already answered here: And I never thought Friend was scum for voting vezo. vezo got the town read and a Day 1 pass from me because two of the people that voted him are on my suspect list.

...
Friend: Tending scummy. But alot of that is based on an undefinable general itch rather than anything concrete to point to. Basically, that I don't think he is as thick as he was letting on earlier. On a re-read, I now hold the opinion that his interaction with me asking about my vote then unvote on Tasky weren't because he misunderstood them but rather that he was looking for some sort of contradiction or see if I would do some sort of weak sauce backpedal on my unvote. I reread my interaction with him wondering where my reasoning wasn't clear. Turns out I was perfectly clear and not just because I knew where I was going when I wrote them but no one else seems to have had any trouble understanding either the vote or the unvote. So, no vote right now on Friend either. I have no problem thinking he is scummy at the moment or even saying it, but I have no concrete evidence he is so, no vote at this time. But he is on my list of suspects.
...

Seriously, those who are voting Kagelord for Oso's reasons, need to answer me what they think about quadz08

. It just doesn't make sense. On top of that, why would you choose Kagelord over someone who you claimed to be suspicious of, like vezok. Just saying that any lynch satisfies you and that you will do whatever "you guys" want.

No, they don't. Do your own work. If you think that the reasons are bogus, attack the reasons and the person who first made them. Then worry about who might have followed along.

This is basically why you will keep being my first suspect for a long time. You're basically excusing yourself of all responsibility (Oso, are you reading this? Isn't this the same thing Kage allegedly do and cause you to vote him?).

Yes I am, and is one of the reasons he hasn't gotten a full on town read from me. Again back to the whole impression thing. I think KageLord is doing it scummily, quadz, no. Just because I think one player is scummy for doing something it doesn't necessarily follow that I suspect another player as scummy because they are doing the same thing. Logic is good. For me it is useless by itself without stepping back and trying to figure out the 'why' of the situation. That requires assigning motivations based on gut and overall impressions on where I think the player(s) is going with their posts.

[Oso]

Ok, I'll bite on that one. How do you explain 'gut feeling'? By definition it is not something based in logic. It based on past experience, overall impressions and perhaps even a subconscious awareness that something is wrong or right but you just haven't ferreted out the logical basis for it yet.

Yes. I use it some, where and when I think it appropriate to do so. The main thing is that I tend to throw out gut reads once more information shows that would invalidate the gut read. Information that I reserve the right to decide is valid or not. It's my gut after all.

Oso keeps talking generalities and answering every question evasively. He looks like a politician and that displeases me a great deal.

and this

I do not disagree with the fact that logic is not everything.

But when you make a case on someone where you first focus on logic that doesn't hold together

and there's no attempt to explain the "gut" you apparently feel, it makes me wonder at how easy it is to get anyone lynched.

Fair enough. Prove it.

1 - Examples showing I am evasive and using generalizations and tie it into how that might indicate that am scum.
2A - Show exactly(or even just generally) how my logic is flawed or doesn't hold together in relation to the case I presented against KageLord.
2B - Link that as well into a case that shows not only am I am wrong but also how that might indicate my alignment as well.

That's how it is, eh? I'm doing my own work.

I know you are. You hit on one of my pet peeves/self-defense actions. Namely that if you think I am scum and am deliberately trying to get KageLord lynched based on faulty logic then go with that. Don't try to set up a situation where you can lynch someone then use my case on KageLord to show I am scum. Because you know what's going to happen? You'll lynch quadz and when he flips town you'll say "Oh shit, we lynched a townie, but Oso is still scum. My bad there quadz." If you think I am deliberately setting up KG for a lynch because I took some bits and pieces and threw together a case simply to get a townie lynched then lynch me.

If you want an informational lynch then call for one. And if you are going to use a flip to try and determine my alignment then I suggest it be KageLord, that way you can use 'killed a townie or bussed a partner' no matter what happens. Might be easier too as you can start planning posts for either eventuality now and not wait for the flip.

[Oso]

..

Edit after preview: Again, I think a vezo lynch would provide just as much, if not more, information as my lynch. The vezo lynch has the added bonus of having a firm case against the lynchee other than "gut" and "information". If you're so adamant on getting that information, Oso, and you don't care whether vezo is scum or town, why not lynch vezo and use that in your case against me (and possibly Poirot as well) in the unlikely event that he flips town? Since you already got some attention in this wagon, imagine how much support you could get if the one I focused the most on was a townie.

I don't want an informational lynch. I want you lynched because I think you are scum. Big difference there. And if we can get to your lynch without scragging a townie first, that's even better.

And in case you missed it, this:

If you want an informational lynch then call for one. And if you are going to use a flip to try and determine my alignment then I suggest it be KageLord, that way you can use 'killed a townie or bussed a partner' no matter what happens. Might be easier too as you can start planning posts for either eventuality now and not wait for the flip.

was me giving Poirot the finger.

[Oso]

Since we are in a lull here.

MOD: I know it's maybe a bit early but could jay get prodded? I'm sure I'm not the only one who like to see him back in here.

[Oso]

@xvart

Ok, I'll bite on that one. How do you explain 'gut feeling'? By definition it is not something based in logic. It based on past experience, overall impressions and perhaps even a subconscious awareness that something is wrong or right but you just haven't ferreted out the logical basis for it yet.

Who was this directed at?

I'm going to go ahead and say that playing by gut is fine but it shouldn't be used as a tool to finagle lynch orders/preferences in such drastic ways.

Case Study by xvart #1:

That in direct response to this:

..
I do not disagree with the fact that logic is not everything. But when you make a case on someone where you first focus on logic that doesn't hold together and there's no attempt to explain the "gut" you apparently feel, it makes me wonder at how easy it is to get anyone lynched.

There were a few posts between Poirot's and mine. Sorry for the confusion.

[Oso]

What happened to Oso?

I'm still here. I was mainly holding back to see if jay would make an appearance but think I'm going to have to give that up hoping for that at the moment.

To answer the question xvart asked earlier. No, SSBF hasn't made it near scum in my book so far. I don't like some of his ideas about using absolutes in scum tells and think it might be hard to convince him of anything if you hit try any use anything goes against that.

xvart has raised some interesting points in regards to quadz though, today is a light day working for me so I plan looking on looking at what he said in those couple of posts about quadz pretty closely. I have a slight town read on quadz at the moment so I'm interested. One question at xvart though, part of that is based on a meta call in regards to quadz right? If the game you mentioned is finished, could you link it? I don't recall seeing a game link or a game name.

[Oso]

Going to answer Poirot first and then get back to digging into xvart's post about quadz.
(Unless otherwise stated, all quotes are from Poirot in Post #329)

And there you have it. I still don't know if you're just being a fanatic...

Point to you, I can be fanatical about a person I am convinced is scum.

As to a KageLord lynch, I'm almost ready to back off that now. Here is why.

If you want an informational lynch then call for one. And if you are going to use a flip to try and determine my alignment then I suggest it be KageLord, that way you can use 'killed a townie or bussed a partner' no matter what happens. Might be easier too as you can start planning posts for either eventuality now and not wait for the flip.

That is my post to you Poirot but with the hope that KG would try and do something with it. And he did here:

Edit after preview: Again, I think a vezo lynch would provide just as much, if not more, information as my lynch. The vezo lynch has the added bonus of having a firm case against the lynchee other than "gut" and "information". If you're so adamant on getting that information, Oso, and you don't care whether vezo is scum or town, why not lynch vezo and use that in your case against me (and possibly Poirot as well) in the unlikely event that he flips town? Since you already got some attention in this wagon, imagine how much support you could get if the one I focused the most on was a townie.

Why wait to post this as long as I did? I wanted to see how you reacted to that post (#282) as well AND I'd really like to have jay back in here to explain his last before try to solidify any reads I have on you Poirot (or jay as well. I have you pegged as suspicious based on Friend's play mainly and jay is a town read up to the moment of his last).

Getting back to KG. He did react to that post but not as expected. Up to this point, I've made no bones about the fact I'd be happy to see him lynched. Several people have expressed doubts my about using subjective reasoning (gut, intuition) in my regards to KG. Fair enough. I tried to find some way to get some objective evidence (that I could use) against him to go along with it.

Short version, neither one of you reacted the way I thought you would to that post. KG reacted way off if he were scum. He stays with his focus on vezo as his lynch when there is a perfect opportunity there for him (or any one else for that matter) to go off on the misrep of you in that post. Plus he goes on to invite me to be free to use it against him (and you) if he was wrong. Taken in context with the post of his I picked apart, that is enough for me to switch him back to the neutral category. My overall

impression

of his posts have changed from 'likely scum piling on as many crap reasons as possible' to 'maybe he is unsure town'. One thing that it did convince me of is that if he does flip scum, then you aren't. He tied himself to you to closely on that one.

And you Poirot, you had ample opportunity to go off on me as well in a big way, but you didn't. No one would thought anything about OMGUS if you had taken your vote off of quadz and pushed me. You didn't. You even gave me an out to use. Scum, at least in my experience, don't do that for others.

I'm not 100% convinced either or both of you are town but the odds of either of you being scum, by my way of thinking, have greatly diminished. I am certain enough the say that you guys aren't scum together though.

Last thought, this is something I didn't want to point to before. Vezo's softclaim? breadcrumb? here and KG's pointing at it out in the very last part of his post here. I noticed vezo's post there as well and almost joined KG in asking for an explanation. I didn't because by that point he(vezo) had answered it sort of. I checked several times to make sure I wasn't missing something and all vezo does is explain the second line of the post.

I had noticed what vezo said, I also know KG saw it as he pointed it out. But he didn't pursue it. No one else did either so I made a snap assumption (hope maybe) that perhaps no one else, other than KG and myself, had seen it either. That was blown out the window when Poirot said this:

I won't be sad if they lynch you, even if you are a PR which you sometimes seem to be softclaiming.

So I'm going to go ahead and think almost everyone saw it for what I think it was: A breadcrumb/softclaim. The only reason that made sense to me was that KG came to the same conclusion but instead of backing off if he was town and he thought that pointing to a softclaim of someone might tip off others, he continues to attack veso but without referring back to it. I came up with several scenarios as to why I might do it. The one that stood the most was that if given long enough, with the way vezo is playing, there will be ample fuel to make a case that vezo is scum/lying rather town/claiming when it comes down to an RC. Points to the fact that only scum would go ahead and hope that someone didn't see it and still keep attacking vezo. If he were town and thought vezo was scum setting up a breadcrumb for lying on an RC, hammer that softclaim hard would have been the way to go. If he thought vezo was setting up a legitimate breadcrumb then as town, he would have stilled ignored it but he would have found a way to get off of vezo.

Naturally, I didn't point that out in my attacks on KG because I myself hoped that no one had seen it or had dismissed it, since I already had suspicions of KG and to a lesser extent Poirot, I went with the town side of the argument in vezo's favor. So time to cover the PR and get the scum lynched who is sandbagging him in the process.

Now that is out I have a question for KG before I actually go so far as to unvote him.

Why did you post this:

Well, this is either everything or nothing. I can think of only one logical explanation that doesn't involve vezo being a PR (scum or town), though it does involve some strange wording on vezo's part. However, I don't want to say it and I don't want anyone else, other than vezo, to. So, vezo, what did you mean by the bolded?

Plus, I'm not sure who you actually questioned here, other than asking Friend his top suspects.

And never follow up on it?

[Oso]

@xvart.

@Oso - Read the information below. Do you really feel that your suspicions of KageLord outweigh quadz's logic for his lynch preferences? If you think quadz is justified in his preference, why do you think quadz believes vezok is more suspicious than me? Also, why is your case stronger than what I have outlined?

Hopefully my last post will answer some of your concerns about myself before I can address this directly.

[Oso]

Ok,

Now that is out I have a question for KG before I actually go so far as to unvote him.

Why did you post this:

Well, this is either everything or nothing. I can think of only one logical explanation that doesn't involve vezo being a PR (scum or town), though it does involve some strange wording on vezo's part. However, I don't want to say it and I don't want anyone else, other than vezo, to. So, vezo, what did you mean by the bolded? Plus, I'm not sure who you actually questioned here, other than asking Friend his top suspects.

And never follow up on it?

I didn't follow up on it because vezok's response was a possible one. The logical explanation I mentioned in that post was that vezok meant "tonight" as in real-time and not in-game. That is the explanation that vezok ended up giving, so I dropped it. But, now that vezok has seemingly softclaimed since then, my original assumption about the meaning of vezok's post makes a lot more sense. The only question now is what to do about it.

I can buy that. If nothing else it explains why you would ignore it and still keep after vezo if you were town, at least by my way of thinking. It probably goes without saying but I'll say it anyway: I've still got my eye on you.

UNVOTE: KageLord

quadz, is another matter. I'm stubborn, as I think I've just shown and it will take just about as much to blast him out of my town read as it did to blast KageLord out of a "lynch him, like now" read. The main difference here is that I have been picking KageLord's (and to a lesser extent Poirot's) posts apart letter by letter and let everyone go about their business. So quadz (and everyone else) has gotten much less scrutiny by me than those two.

xvart makes a good case. At no point does his reasoning seem forced or that he's reaching. Grasping at straws is the term a few have used at various times in the thread. I don't see that with xvart's case on quadz.

With a nod to q21's caution about xvart's reasoning also being valid for xvart/quadz team as well as it does for a SSBF/quadz team, I'll:

VOTE: quadz

As stated, xvart makes a good case and instead of rehashing it and pointing out specifically what I like or dislike about any point, I'll say that quadz responses to xvart's (and other's) questions and points have been unsatisfactory.

Finally this:

Now this is a good observation, and I encourage you to follow it. As I've said before when I preempted my suspicions of SSBF, as long as quadz gets the noose today we can debate his partners tomorrow.

He's put himself on the line with that post and that does give him a lot of points with me. For consistency's sake, the impression I get is that xvart is doing this honestly because there is no indication, to me, that he simply going after a weak town player (an option I had considered) but rather that he honestly thinks he has caught scum. And I agree.

[Oso]

Don't want to get accused of trying to rush things but:

From totallynotmafia's lats votal: Deadline is July 26, 10:30 AM (GMT + 10:00).

Unless I have completely hosed up the time conversion, that is just about 24 hours from now.

[Oso]

A no NK Night 1?

Wonderful.

I mean it is good as we have no dead townie but we also have no usable information from the night really.

1 - Mafia decided not to kill.
2 - Mafia hit a bulletproof role.
3 - Doctor made a successful save.
(those are the three I can come up with off the top of my head that don't complicate my thinking too much)

Don't expect much out of me for the next day or so. Going to back and completely tear apart Day 1 and see if I can get any of those three options to make sense. Or perhaps add other options to it.

@Diddin (sorry can't let this go by) why Friend replaced out of this game

DOESN'T BELONG HERE AS ANY SORT OF EVIDENCE OF ALIGNMENT

. Unless you absolutely know why he replaced out, then it still doesn't belong in the thread at least in my opinion.

[Oso]

..
1 - Mafia decided not to kill.
2 - Mafia hit a bulletproof role.
3 - Doctor made a successful save.
(those are the three I can come up with off the top of my head that don't complicate my thinking too much)
..

1 - Possible, although I can't figure out why they would. Best I could come up with is an NK immune Godfather they are setting up for a Iron Townie claim in case there is a Vig that happens to tag him and he doesn't die.

2 - No way in hell to tell at this point. Also, see number 1.

3 - Again possible and that's all I will say about except that if there IS a doc and you did protect someone last night, you might want to speak up if we if are going to lynch your protectee. Good chance with no night kill that you may have blocked a Mafia kill and we are about to lynch a townie.

VOTE: vezo

Yesterday, I went some lengths to create static for you because I thought you had soft claimed. My reasoning is in the last half of this post and the main reason I went after KageLord as hard as I did. So I don't care if it is considered role-fishing, I'd like a claim from you sometime today. Easy if possible, but I think there is enough support for pressuring you to L-1 for a claim if you want to go that route.

Poirot might have started it, xvart might have solidified it but you(vezo), q21, myself and diddin are on the hook for quadz's lynch. I'm discounting Tazaro at this moment because even though he did hammer, KageLord had already confirmed his intention to hammer so there was no need for scum to do it at that point, to beat the deadline. We four are the ones that made that lynch possible.

[Oso]

@KageLord. The Godfather Role is a scum role that is usually investigation immune and in some cases I've seen, also night kill immune (Iron if you will although I don't think that term is in common use use here. Bulletproof is favored). A good example of both roles (Godfather, Bulletproof Townie) are in the role descriptions in this post of Mini #714 (near the bottom of the post) and the QT of the game here (post #10) to see how scum planned on using the BP townie role to cover the GF if you are interested. (This game is over by the way, topic locked well over a year ago)

Back on the game here though, some(most) of that post is mainly me talking out loud to myself, it helps to clarify my thoughts so be careful using any of that speculation for your own use unless it you see something that makes any of it make sense to you.

As to the Doc claiming if we are about to lynch a protectee, you are right. I didn't come right out and say it but yeah, if that situation comes up and the Doc (if there is one) determines it's not in the town's interest to speak up that's something best left to the player to figure out. That's why I didn't go any deeper into the reasoning than I did.

[Oso]

Welcome Aranneas

[Oso]

I'm still doing a bit of review myself so I'll have a more substantial post by this time tomorrow.

But what KG just said. I had a town read on Tasky pretty much that carried over to you Tazaro. Have to be honest, you pulled that right back to the lower side of neutral with that hammer.

This is mainly curiosity, why didn't you let KG hammer? He had already said that he would hammer before deadline. Or had gotten that far in your read through before you hammered?

[Oso]

And I guess I get a double post myself here.

@Aranneas. Do you have anything at all on why jay posted this: (Post-237)

Unvote: Vote: Humble Poirot


Humble is 100% scum, confirmed..B4 you all ask me how and why I AM 10000% about this..I will not roleclaim.....also after he is lynched and flips scum, please can I get protected tonight for obvious reasons, thanks...1 scum down!

[Oso]

@Sotty

..
I saw Oso comment on the fact Tazaro's hammer demises his town read on that slot, but I don't understand it. Someone was going to hammer, whether it be Kage, myself or Tazaro, someone had too. ...

Alot of that has to do with the question I asked Tazaro. He missed the post where KageLord said he would hammer and I have no reason to disbelieve that's true. Pretty much takes my read on that player slot back to where it was as the hammer is null in my mind now. New player, near deadline, things get rushed as obviously reading and digesting 16+ pages of posts that close to deadline isn't something easily done in a short time.

[Oso]

Ok, I guess the easiest way to clarify my thoughts is the game state at lynch yesterday.

Aranneas(jayfl383)

- MIA at the time. Vote on Poirot, no chance that will change before lynch.

Sooty7/KageLord

- Vote on Diddin(Sooty) and vezo(KG). No reason to expect, at least in my opinion, that their votes would move off those players other than to avoid a no lynch. (Both stated that in posts).

SSBF

- Vote on Vezo. Read him in ISO and going to go out on a limb here and say that I don't think his vote would have changed even to avoid a no-lynch (@SSBF, if you did say that you would hammer to prevent no-lynch I missed it. Point out where and I'll retract this). Pretty much has stuck to a vezo lynch and I got the impression nothing was budging him off that for Day 1. Reinforced by the fact he is back on vezo today.

This (Post 421):

...
3. We should not be concerned about a lack of a Night Kill on a townie.

Bugs me. Granted, uncontrolled, public speculation of why it happened would be harmful at this point but complete unconcern would be equally as harmful. Something happened in the game that is not normal for night one of a mafia game. If nothing else, acknowledging that fact and getting people to think as to reasons WHY it might have happened is a good thing even though over-discussing it in the thread at this point would be counter productive. Everyone should be giving considerable thought on reasons why it may have happened, in my opinion, and trying to see if they can make those reasons fit even if they don't want them discussed right now. So for that comment, my estimation of his alignment took a slight hit.

quadz08

- Dead but vote on vezo. No chance of a vote change on to his own wagon.

Those voting quadz

Poirot

- Started the wagon on quadz. While I can't see anything overtly scummy about his reasons, my tirade against him yesterday wasn't completely baseless in my mind. The main point was to go a bit around the bend to specifically see what KG and Poirot would do with it but also, I got the distinct feeling that while he thought part of my reasoning on KG was bogus for going after KG, he felt that same reasoning was just fine for going after quadz. Also, this:

KageLord?
Yes.
He is trying to hard to paint someone scum. (I E : When I SSBF posted before me he made a pretty big case saying I am scum just because of that.) I just found this scum hunting tehnique a few days ago and it never proved me wrong. People who try too hard to make someone seem scummy are usually scum.

...

Is he the only one doing that? The only one trying hard to paint someone as scum?

Since that was the post he addressed my case against KG I can only assume that he was asking vezo (and anyone else who read the post) to at least consider that I was doing the same thing to KG. I expect that to come up again if KG is ever NKed or lynched and flips town and I am still around.

So yeah, Poirot isn't high on my list of who might be town at the moment. I did give serious consideration to what Sooty7 said about him considering the 'Oso vs Poirot by play' as a town vs town fight to the death though. And since Sotty is outside the argument and has a different perspective than I do, I'm willing to grant at the moment he may have a point.

xvart

- Not much to say here. I'm of the opinion that especially on day 1, town lynches town and scum don't really have to do much but push it along here and there. That's my call right now on xvart, he made a good case on a person he thought stood a good chance to be scum. He was wrong though but as I said yesterday, doesn't seem like a typical scum case built up to lynch a weak townie. Struck me as a town case that was wrong.

vezo

- Basically gave his vote to the quadz lynch, in my opinion, because it was the easiest thing to do at that point. Never pulled it off and is the single most scummiest vote on the quadz wagon. This is why my vote is staying on vezo at the moment. He had the scummiest reason (in this case, pretty much no reason) to be voting quadz. AND ALSO because of the confusion yesterday around several people thinking he had softclaimed a PR, I want to get rid of that confusion today. Outing a town PR in vezo's case, carries less risk to town than continuing without a claim. He's a scum magnet right now because of his play so far and I'd like to know for myself what role he would claim (or is). It would go a long way clearing up some of the static I am getting about my reads on other players based off of him.

q21/myself

- Lumping us both together and yes, I am including myself here. Considerably less scummy votes than vezo's but still not great. Not going to dig into the point by point differences here but we both (I know I did and I'm guessing that q21's thinking was similar based on his vote post) basically took a look at what already had been presented against quadz08, who presented it, called it good and voted.

diddin

- Hard to read this, Starts off the day voting Tasky, switches to vezo, switches to SSBF and ends the day on quadz. His posts may be inconsistent but his late day votes aren't. Post 294 he list his top three scum suspects and SSBF is first and quadz second. With xvart's comments on using quadz's meta to connect him with SSBF (NOTE: Before anyone reads into that, xvart had quadz as scum independent of meta. He only used meta to connect with SSBF if I understood him correctly) I see no real inconsistency with him switching to suspect #2 when it becomes apparent that suspect #1 isn't going anywhere. Especially that late in the day especially as he been shown a method that strengthens his read on suspect #1 if suspect #2 flips scum.

Tazaro

- No read/ weak town read as a holdover from Tasky. I don't like the way he came in and hammered but that is not game related so I switched him back to the read I had before he hammered.

So, vezo is where my vote stays at the moment. I realize that I am voting him more for a claim than as a potential lynch so that might be considered scummy/role-fishing but there it is.

Second and third in my book right now? SSBF and perhaps Poirot or Diddin. Not sure I'd want to lynch any of them three at the moment though although putting any one of those three under the microscope and pressurizing them (like what is happening to Diddin at the moment) is OKfine by me.

[Oso]

Vote on Vezo. Read him in ISO and going to go out on a limb here and say that I don't think his vote would have changed even to avoid a no-lynch

(@SSBF, if you did say that you would hammer to prevent no-lynch I missed it. Point out where and I'll retract this)

. Pretty much has stuck to a vezo lynch and I got the impression nothing was budging him off that for Day 1. Reinforced by the fact he is back on vezo today.

I think I said a few times that I would hammer quadz08 if it became apperent that he was going to be lynched. This is what I could find in my ISO:

Willing to lynch him if vezokpiraka doesn't ge through ToDay.

Since he is at L-1, I am still willing to hammer if it becomes certain that quadz08 is the play for ToDay.

This means that I was willing to hammer quadz08 if his lynch became certain. Had I gotten up early enough at the day of the deadline, I would have placed the hammer on quadz08 before Tazaro did to prevent a No Lynch. Just because a person is not my top suspect doesn't mean I'm going to let a No Lynch go through, especially when it's a person I already thought was scummy.

Ok. As promised, I take that back. No excuse as to why I didn't see it other than 'skimming is not equal to reading'. I find I'm actually doing the first when I think I'm doing the second on occasion.

[Oso]

I confirm the Neighbor part of his role claim.

Diddin, myself and Poirot are indeed neighbors with each other but we are

unconfirmed

as far as alignment with each other.

[Oso]

I personally have no problem doing that. Basically, since we are all unconfirmed as to alignment, there isn't a whole lot of trust in there.

The beginning of the night was a few posts about how that trust might be built. Not many ideas other than if one of us is flipped or NKed and that person turns out town, that the other two out their their status and go at each other based on the assumption that there is one scum in the group.

Also some discussion between myself and diddin about hiding/revealing our neighbor status during role claims (Poirot was absent in this discussion as he had been absent except for the first real-life day of night 1. He mentioned internet problems in his last post, so that makes sense)

I did a wagon analysis that is close (but not exactly the same) as the one I walled here for you folks.

Also, Poirot said he would post an analysis but didn't (he mentioned internet problems in his last post, so that makes sense)

Also, I will say that of the suspects he(diddin) had any sort of bad read on, only 2 (xvart and vezo) were on the quadz wagon yesterday.

If I misread/misunderstood anything from last night, Piorot and diddin, sing out.

[Oso]

Yes we were and nothing of substance was said. Mainly jokes and hellos.

[Oso]

Not in the pre-game talk. The only thing that might be taken as game related pre-game was myself speculating on there being 4 groups of 3 player neighbors. I have never played in a game with this mechanic before.

Friend told me that wasn't how it usually worked.

The only time the word "scum" was used was by friend in relation to playing a board game. He said he'd play but not with scum.

[Oso]

There was really no general agreement on if that was true but rather an assumption we all made and acknowledged. The basic 'careful what you say, scum may be listening', 'anything said in here might come back and haunt you later in game and used against you', 'don't lie in relation to the neighbor's mechanic as that would give scum an opening to attack you through a "half-truth" argument in your RC'. Almost like 3 strangers meeting for the first time and wanting to be able to trust each other but not quite willing yet to make the leap because there is good reasons not to trust each other.

To clarify for my own part in this.

While I find it likely that there may one scum in among the neighbors, I am by no means convinced it has to be so. Not going to try and read tnm's mind but I can see where adding three townies into a neighbor group can add a new dynamic.

Unconfirmed in a group automatically breeds distrust and the smaller the group, the higher the level of distrust. It adds a background layer of by-play that could be possibly seen in thread but with no context it would likely strike odd bells and probably set off a player's (or two or three player's) scumdar based on something they see happening but no way to account for it.

So no, for my part, I'm not ready to believe that there is definitely scum among the three of us any more than I am ready to believe we are all townies. Going to need some help from the game thread and you folks for us to figure that out.

[Oso]

Not really.

I don't know diddin's experience with mafia. Going by his join date here on mafiascum I'm assuming he has a basic understanding of how mafia works but in the night talk, and here in the thread I get the impression he still might not be completely comfortable with the game yet. Don't want to give anyone a newbie card to play but for myself, I have a hard time distinguishing between players that are giving scum reads because they are scum or because they aren't quite comfortable with the game of mafia yet.

That being said, I believe his claim because it does fall right into line with I have seen (and used to do myself) with someone who is familiar but inexperienced with mafia that has a town power role.

Poirot is slightly different but it really has nothing to do with the way Poirot has played (other than what I said about him in my wagon analysis of yesterday's lynch) but with friend before he replaced out. Still can't put my finger on it though so I've pretty much dismissed it but since the neighbor mechanic is out can someone do me a favor and look at friend and his interplay between myself/him and diddin and see if you get any impression at all that he was trying to start shit between diddin and me? Or buddy up to one of us at the expense of of the other?

I'm going to guess that you probably don't and I can dismiss that as being overly paranoid.

[Oso]

Yeah, that was trigger. But like I stated, I am pretty paranoid about the whole neighbors mechanic so I've probably over thought the whole thing by this point.

[Oso]

Oso, just to clarify here, you no longer find Tazaro's hammer scummy?

No, I don't. On reflection, I realized that the negative I got out of it was based on something that had nothing to do with the game. I thought it was rude (apologies to Tazaro) mainly because that was pretty much his first game post. His response showed me that he missed the part where KG said he would hammer before deadline so I nulled out the read. Scum, I would think, would go out of their way to avoid being the hammer on a townie unless they were very secure that it wouldn't come back to haunt them and being a new replacement into the game, Tazaro has a perfect opportunity to lay low that close to deadline and put off participating until the start of the Day 2 and avoid the issue altogether.

As to Diddin, from the nighttalk, I get nothing that says he is anything other than what he says he is. While outing the neighbor mechanic was discussed in regards to RCs, no one claimed or alluded to a role of any kind in any of the talk.

I'm going to accept his RC for the moment. Several reasons, mainly because it does fit in with no NK last night. It's muddled though because it's impossible to tell if his action protected you or prevented you and there is no way he or anyone else in the thread, other than scum, can say for certain if his action prevented a kill on you or prevented you from doing something. And the fact that there is no sort of counter (yet anyway) to his role which is basically a Doctor on steroids makes is more than likely he is telling the truth.

And you hit it on the head, there is zero amount of trust in the neighbors night thread but alot of that can be logged off to Poirot not having access/limited access during the night and we were minus the third neighbor but I got a generally positive feeling from diddin. He didn't seem to be cadging or evasive or manipulative in anything we talked about. Didn't try to hatch any plots is what I'm saying.

The only thing that struck me as off is that he asked if we should hide our neighbor status if forced to RC. But seeing as how we are a group, even if unconfirmed with each other, not so much off that it worries me too much. The 'semi-informed minority' is a cool thing and it's natural to want to conceal that where possible.

[Oso]

Go to bed and see what happens.

I think vezo is saying that only KG targeted me right vezo? If it had been 2 then I take it vezo would have started the day claiming and showing results?

@KG, I don't see how giving any results could hurt me or town. I think you should go ahead and claim. But if you want to hold off and give a few more people an chance to chime in that is fine by me. I have to go back to Poirot's post from last night and read from there again. A lot was posted in 8 or so hours.

[Oso]

Ok, after a quick read through.

Diddin, I'm willing to believe at the moment.

Vezo, if he has true claimed then only one, AS IN A SINGLE PLAYER, targeted me so if KageLord can come up with some way to show he wasn't blocked then I wasn't targeted for an NK last night as I AM NOT DEAD.

KageLord, see above.

Please, start focusing people, we have 2 claimed PRs, 1 Unclaimed PR and a whole lot of rubbish and good information that might contain some gold in it somewhere. I'ma throw in with Sotty and xvart at the moment and make a suggestion. Take as many theories as you want and go back to diddin's claim (or even the start of Day 2) and read from there (that's what I'm going to do and I have a couple of whopper theories myself) and then see if they fit.

/me goes back to reading

[Edit after preview]I see KG addressed about not being blocked so for now, I'd say really like to know what his targeting me revealed to him. But it can wait until we have sorted through some other things first, in my opinion. There is enough in the thread as it stands right now to keep us busy for the moment without adding more.

[Oso]

EBWOP should have included this above.

@KG and vezo, if I missed this or haven't gotten to it yet then I apologize but..

Why me?

[Oso]

You should have tried to fish out if Oso had anything happen to him last night first.

I know that was directed at vezo but I'll go ahead and answer it anyway. Nothing happened to me last night from my point of view.

To the rest, I'ma go out on a limb here and believe that both vezo and diddin are true claiming so I'm going to take them off my list of potential for today. Why? They are both town roles and with no counters there is absolutely no basis to lynch the claim. We know that if vezo is lying, then KG is as well but since KG did confirm that he targeted me then vezo's claim is probably true (no matter what you may think of vezo's play up to this point) if you grant that they are not partners. The only way to tell would be to flip one of them and I am not in favor of doing that today unless we get close to the end of the day an KG hasn't claimed his role.

Yes, I do want KG to claim his role before the day is out for one very basic reason. He targeted me and I want to know what he got out of it before I get lynched or NKed. Whether it is in the town's best interest or not, I don't really give a fuck at the moment. Town in this game gives every indication that is well along the road to self-destructing and scum isn't going to have to do much more than sit back and laugh their ass off. Best I think I can hope for is to try and help get one of them before they make a concerted effort to start eliminating the players that are an actual danger to them.

Having said that (and yes, I do see the irony of doing this after my last sentence)

VOTE: Sotty7

As I said, I'm going to go ahead an believe diddin and vezo. We have KG outed as a PR but no claim as yet. That is 3 PRs outed and none of them contested (pending KG full claim that is).

So, unless town is way overpowered in this game for some reason one of them is lying OR diddin managed to prevent the mafia night killer instead of protecting a target of the NK. quadz flipped as a VT so we know this isn't a non-vanilla game. We have too many PRs if Sotty is not scum. This is a start to trying to prove/disprove the various claims we have out here.

If you guys can come up with a way to do this without lynching either the claims or the targets, I'm all ears.

[Oso]

Nope, process of elimination and borrowing some of the thinking on a cop claim with a result. If you grant (and I have at the moment) that diddin, vezo and KG are all town PRs, then the likelihood that diidin prevented a kill rather than protected a target goes way up, at least in my opinion.

I'm wanting to test diddin's claim in the same way we test a cop's claim and investigation. By lynching the target, regardless of the previous reads of the players involved.

[Oso]

I quote myself.

If you guys can come up with a way to do this without lynching either the claims or the targets, I'm all ears.

And to answer you, I think it does. I repeat, there are too many PRs, in my opinion, in this game if you are not scum. I'd like to test that but I will go so far as to say that I'm not married to lynching you to test diddin's claim (I really don't want to lynch one of the few players I'm actually enjoying playing with until the need is apparent). Since KG and veso both targetted the same person(me) I'm also open to arguments that is some sort of set up but alot of that has to do with the question I asked them earlier, why target me?

In this case, I'd rather go after one of the claims rather than the targets but there is no basis. Cases could be made against both diddin and vezo because of their play but their play isn't bad enough to override the claims at this point. Neither have been countered, neither has been proven to have lied about their roles. KageLord is in limbo because we know from vezo and KG himself that is a PR just not what sort of PR.

Maybe ignoring the claims at this point and just going with the players that aren't claimed is the better play, I don't know. Any suggestions?

[Oso]

VOTE: Sotty7

What?! And Oso is trusting diddin too much, me thinks. Or is Oso really playing us? I think Oso and diddin is another possible scum pair. I mean, diddin targets Sotty and Oso is trying to lynch Sotty? Bulls***

Valium is good. You should try some.

[Oso]

Think about it for a second. If I and Diddin were partners, and we wanted sooty7 dead, we wouldn't no-kill and then try and get sooty lynched day 2 with a jailkeeper/lynch the target scam,we would have NKed her.

If we did do that, well all I can say is that a complicated gambit like that is going to come unraveled before endgame and would surely bite us in the ass. Town gets confused and scum do use that but that is stretching it. One person might fall for it but not a whole thread.

[Oso]

Sotty is either the scum who submitted the kill or the person that scum diddin blocked. I find it hard to believe that he would be the kill choice for mafia last night. Sotty being the kill choice just does make any sense to me from a scum POV. I'm thinking that diddin is lying, and if diddin flips scum then I think Tazaro is trying to fish out the actual protective role. I'm not going to go full speed ahead with connections at this point, but I do not believe diddin is a town Jailkeeper. I think the best bet when determining who to lynch is to not only consider the roles, but also who has been the scummiest.

xvart.

While my vote is still on Sotty(an aside here, I've noticed I have misspelled your name several times, I'll try not to let that happen again), I do have to disagree a bit on that one. Sotty I can see as a good NK choice along with you(xvart), and even perhaps myself,Poirot and KG for Night 1. Looking at it from a scum POV, those are probably going to the hardest players to get lynched if they are town and are probably already on the NK list, especially as we have players that don't even really need any help at all to get lynched.

That thought has made me seriously reconsider my action on voting Sotty several times before I finally went ahead. If we didn't have all this PRs out right now, I'd still be thinking that both diddin and Sotty stood a good chance of being town based on the protective part of diddin's role rather than thinking sotty has a decent chance of being scum based on the prevention part of diddin's claimed role.

[Oso]

And Oso, I'm sorry you feel that way about my semi-claim position right now, but please be patient. It is very likely that I will end up fully claiming either D3 or D4 if I make it that far.

I'll go with that for now. Just remember though, if your role reveal on the dead list doesn't lend itself to showing what sort of info you have on me, any information you have dies with you if you are NKed.

Other than saying that, I have no further objection to you not fully claiming. Especially since it seems that Tazaro is the one who is up for the lynch today. Or is at least the flavor of the moment.

[Oso]

Not my call to make. You are the best to answer that I think.

[Oso]

And to answer you, I think it does. I repeat, there are too many PRs, in my opinion, in this game if you are not scum.

I don't get it. What do all the power roles claimed so far have to do with me being scum or not? I have claimed no role.

Maybe ignoring the claims at this point and just going with the players that aren't claimed is the better play, I don't know. Any suggestions?

Have you tried scum hunting? I'm serious here, who is the scummest person to you? Pressure them. Vote them. Right now you are costing by on the “claims” and distancing yourself from your vote on me by basically saying you don't think I am scum. It doesn't add up to me at all.

We have 3 claimed PRs. All of them have true claimed (at least that is premise I am going on) there was no NK. Therefore diddin claim of jailing you didn't keep you from being killed, it prevented you from killing someone.

We know from quadz flip that this isn't a non-vanilla game so if diddin, vezo and KG are Town PRs then that is just about right for town.

I don't have to scumhunt because didiin jailed the mafia nightkiller.

Clear enough?

[Oso]

This makes

no

sense. If you believe the power roles have “true claimed” why do you suddenly LEAP to the conclusion that I was blocked from making the kill? AKA, if you believe there is a town watcher, JK and ??? why does that mean I was the one doing the killing? Why can't it mean that I was just sat at home being

protected

? The power roles claiming have nothing to do with me or my role. You are really reaching bad here.

If you want to play deliberately dense here, that's fine by me.

I figure it's pretty clear where I'm going and why.

[Oso]

Not at insult. My baiting her with a accusation that she is being deliberately dense to draw me into further discussions to perhaps get a back pedal on my part or something she can use to give herself some wiggle room. I'm not biting that hook.

This is an argument made on my thinking of the way the game might be balanced. Three powers roles for town is about right for the number of power roles in the game. There was no Night Kill last night when there should have been. We have a claimed power role (diddin's) that has the power to prevent someone from doing something, he targetted Sotty7.

High probability, at least in my mind, that he did in fact prevent last night's kill. This argument stands by itself without the need of any supporting evidence in sotty's prior play.

[Oso]

Yes. He may have protected the kill last night.
We all have to remember he is Jailkeeper.
Sotty could wither be the scum who submited the kill

or the person who got saved

.

Not buying that bold part. You(vezo) were the scum target for last night even if you account for anyone's thinking you might be easily lynchable today. Both Poirot and myself mentioned yesterday that we thought you had soft claimed. But, because of your play, if I were in scum's shows I take the shot because I would figure there was a low chance of you drawing a doctor's protection.

Sotty was not the NK target last night.

[Oso]

Unvote, Vote: Oso

He is trying to run me out on a POE but is now some how convinced that he knows who the scum targeted last night.

It's all shaky reasoning with no basis in fact outside his own assumptions. Also has zero consideration for possible scum power roles. If everyone who has claimed a power is telling the truth, don't you think the scum would have some counter to that?

Scum probably do have roles that counter towns but I'd bet money that they have no way to counter a JailKeeper getting lucky enough to have jailed their nightkiller.

And yes, I do think I know what the scum might have done last night based on what I would have done in their position and these

assumptions

I am making are based on that.

[Oso]

I just realized something. I never unvoted.

Unvote:
Vote: Sotty7

[Oso]

Awesome. I am fascinated.

You are an alt of The Buttonmen aren't you?

[Oso]

Wait... is there a such thing as a town RB?.....

That was a joke, right?

[Oso]

Well if it wasn't a joke, I'll bite and step out of the game for a moment. Almost any role can be present in either alignment (except third party roles for the most part) although some are more common to one alignment that others.

From my experience, RBs show up pretty evenly across the alignments.

[Oso]

@xvart

I repeat, there are too many PRs, in my opinion, in this game if you are not scum.

The problem with this line of thinking is that even IF all the claimed PRs are actually town and telling the truth, this doesn't mean that sotty is scum because any of the other non-claimed players could have done a kill on him.

This is true. And I addressed that here:

....
That thought has made me seriously reconsider my action on voting Sotty several times before I finally went ahead. If we didn't have all this PRs out right now, I'd still be thinking that both diddin and Sotty stood a good chance of being town based on the protective part of diddin's role rather than thinking sotty has a decent chance of being scum based on the prevention part of diddin's claimed role.

And modified it some here after I read vezo's post and thought on it some more:

Yes. He may have protected the kill last night.
We all have to remember he is Jailkeeper.
Sotty could wither be the scum who submited the kill

or the person who got saved.

Not buying that bold part. You(vezo) were the scum target for last night even if you account for anyone's thinking you might be easily lynchable today. Both Poirot and myself mentioned yesterday that we thought you had soft claimed. But, because of your play, if I were in scum's shows I take the shot because I would figure there was a low chance of you drawing a doctor's protection.

Sotty was not the NK target last night.

In my opinion, based on a bit of projection on my part and putting myself into scum's shoes for an NK choice last night, that is what I came up with and that is what my premise is based on. Trying to use the information we have in thread to make at least a semi-educated stab at who might be scum. Rather than running around trying to figure out which of the VIs to lynch first.

[Oso]

Going to wait on the official vote count. If your's is right then Tazaro is already lynched. If not I'll go ahead and respond.

[Oso]

Add-on, Congrats. I've been registered almost a year longer than you (9 months) and you already have half as many posts as I do. I took almost a year long break from anything on the internet other than e-mail for almost a year. Which was a shame as I really liked playing mafia on several other sites before here. It was like I joined and then had to leave almost immediately.

[Oso]

Oh, one thing this:

Not at insult. My baiting her with a accusation that she is being deliberately dense to draw me into further discussions to perhaps get a back pedal on my part or something she can use to give herself some wiggle room. I'm not biting that hook.

This is the first time you're calling Kagelord "she". This looks like further attempts to get a violent reaction or something. Not nice.

I went back and checked to make sure I hadn't inadvertently done that.

That was directed at Sooty7 who, I believe, is a woman. Married to the player zackrulzes if I read right in one of the non-game threads.

[Oso]

This.

All I can say is that,

even though my role didn't let me know Oso's alignment, I think he is town right now

and would rather see a Tazaro lynch.

I'ma make a guess that he was hedging hoping to avoid a NK.

Diddin, did you jail anyone?

Vezo, who did you watch?

[Oso]

I'll throw in with xvart. At least a target name and if they were visited or not would be nice.

[Oso]

@xvart, hope everything goes well by the way.

[Oso]

I think I can agree with that. q21 needs some attention as this is about the point in the game where we have decide what to do about lurking players. Since q21 hasn't asked for a replacement and, as far as I know, is posting enough to avoid prods, he's definitely lurking.

But I'm going to put off deciding which way I'm personally going to go until I hear what vezo has to say.

[Oso]

People should be careful with outing any more roles in a rush. That goes for vezok. You are the cause kagelord, by the way.

Why the lack of theories, Oso? Since you wrote some yesterday about the no kill.

I have plenty of theories still but they are waiting on whetever info vezo decides to bring.

Vezo is the claimed watcher, he says he watched someone last night.

And no, vezo didn't kill KageLord (or at least I hope he didn't). Scum killed KageLord. Let's not go about blaming the players for doing the job their role specifies they should do.

[Oso]

So, at this moment we have 3 dead townies.

quadz08, Tazaro - Vanilla.

KageLord-Cop

Alive we have

vezo-Watcher
diddin-JailKeeper/Neighbor

Me(Oso)-Unknown/Neighbor (with some ambiguity on alignment depending on how you read one of KG's posts)
Poirot-Unknown/Neighbor

xvart, Sotty7, Aranneas, SSBF and q21 -Unknown.

Night 1: No night kill
Vezo watches me, catches KG performing a night action. KG being confirmed as a Cop, we can assume he was invetigating (obvious I know, being thorough).
diddin jails Sotty7.

Night 2:KG night killed.
Diddin jails me(Oso).
Vezo watches Piorot and catches KG and another player performing a night action on Poirot.

So we have another non-claimed player that is capable of performing a night action.

This is a catch-up to confirm I have haven't missed anything important and to make sure we are all on the same page. Can anyone see where I have left something out?

[Oso]

I've had about enough of this.

@Everyone.

Just when it is going to be appropriate for

CLAIMED TOWN PRs TO START GIVING THE REST OF TOWN THEIR INFORMATION?

Seriously, do we wait until they show up in the dead list and then have to infer from what they said before they died as to what they might have found? Like in the case of KageLord?

To point out, town is not doing well so far this game. All we've managed to do is lynch a weak townie and a VI.

@vezo. If you, as is

YOU

, not anyone else, think town can be helped along by your info then give it. Fuck what scum will do with it, give the town an opportunity to use what you know against scum.

[Oso]

Going to be at least one m,ore day for Sotty. From the Day Post:

Sotty7 has notified me she will be V/LA until Wednesday 11th.

[Oso]

Also, you said before that there couldn't be that much PRs... And now there's 1 more, apparently.

Apparently. But Sotty, she did have a good point here in Post 634

...
He is trying to run me out on a POE but is now some how convinced that he knows who the scum targeted last night. It's all shaky reasoning with no basis in fact outside his own assumptions. Also has zero consideration for possible scum power roles.

If everyone who has claimed a power is telling the truth, don't you think the scum would have some counter to that?

Again, despite what I think about Sotty's alignment at the moment, the bolded is a

VERY

good point. Some of these people we have running around at night (claimed and unclaimed) aren't guaranteed to be town roles. Right now, I'm going on diddin and vezo being town because neither of them have acted scummy enough to override a non-countered, Town PR claim. And there is no evidence in the thread as yet that they have lied about their role.

[Oso]

I disagree, vezo. If you think it is another protective role then that throws diddin's claim into direct doubt. Granted there is no guarantee their isn't two protective roles in the game but that is highly unusual in a mini.

But for the moment I'll lay off.

@Poirot

..
I'm not dead. But you're saying scum visited me last night. I'm thinking you're scum RB and want to find yet another town PR.

You said that about diddin. Something I'd like to point out. Yesterday you jumped on me a bit because I said it was possible that diddin blocked Sotty from killing rather than protecting her. What changed that now you think diddin might be scum? If he did in fact protect her (and that is why we have no night kill for night 1) then by that reasoning alone, diddin should be getting a huge town read in your book.

If you think Sooty was saved from a kill night 1, then the only person that could have done it at this point is diddin.

[Oso]

Pretty close to what I said. The 'saw that set-up' remark wasn't in reference to game though. Rather it was an MD discussion thread (that is what I linked to). Basically where the discussion center around (in part) using a combination of weaker roles to perhaps replace a traditional cop role.

We have a dead cop though. And that is not speculation.

The 14% percent figure re:Protectives in the last 50 games, I got from Hoopla. I didn't get that on my own. But I have no reason to think it isn't true as Hoopla is really into her stats. Whether she was using the stats for good or bad, I have no doubt the stats hold up by themselves.

[Oso]

..

how about we stop relying on pr's to scumhunt and just scumhunt?

diddin is scum city. he should have been lynched yesterday.

quadz08, Vanilla Townie, was lynched Day 1.
Tazaro Tasky, Vanilla Townie, was lynched Day 2.

KageLord, Town Cop, was killed Night 2.

Usual methods aren't working in case you didn't notice. And I'm not advocating we use the PRs to lead us by the nose.

I will point out the same thing to you xvart as I did to Poirot.

Night 1-No Kill. diddin is (so far) the only claimed RB/Protector of any sort. If you think it too ridiculous to assume that scum didn't kill night 1 then where is kill? How could it have been prevented? Save on the target, block on the killer? What went wrong - what might have went right (use both town and scum perspectives on those last two)?

If you are thinking that scum intended to kill, diddin prevented a kill with his actions. How can you even consider voting him? He'd obviously be town no matter what his play is like.

If his play is so bad that you would lynch him despite the claim, then why no Night 1 Kill? I don't know about you, but I can't reconcile a No Kill and still think diddin could be scum. If you can reconcile it, please enlighten me.

[Oso]

Oh shoot.

Forgot. Hope your surgery went well xvart and everything is OK.

Wecome back Sotty

[Oso]

@xvart: That was what I was waiting for. At least one person who seems willing to listen (as an aside, unless there are 4 scum, we are not in lylo. If we are then we are screwed I think no matter what we do )

I don't think there is another protective role.

I'm going to claim, ask you folks to consider a question then finally ask vezo again to give his results.

Claim: I am yet another PR

(no full claim or results yet. Why will become clear at the end of this post).

First, I'm going to ask you to consider KageLord, the only confirmed PR in the game at the moment. When he said he considered me town, do you think he actually got a “Guilty” result on me and he was hoping that by hinting I was town, he would get another night? We can't know for sure what result he got. I know what my alignment is, and it's town, but you folks don't. He died without giving that information so it is ambiguous at best. The reason I ask you to consider this is because the rest that follows is my flat out asking you folks to extend some trust to me on this. At least as far as helping to convince vezo give out with his results.

I got a result last night (and the night before) so on the face of it, diddin's claim that he jailed me last night is false (please notice I didn't say he lied).

From what people have said they did and saw last night, I can give town pretty solid evidence of one scum. There is also a certainty, if vezo names one particular player, that vezo himself is lying about the second visitor to Poirot last night, so we have a chance of getting two scum outed today with this. One if vezo is telling the truth (or at least not lying where it can be seen), and two if vezo names that one particular player.

Of course, after vezo gives that second player, I will fully claim. I won't even press to get that second player claimed (if they decide to before night though, they won't get any argument out of me esp. if they decide what I bring forth helps them nail another scum). We will be too busy lynching scum to really need that.

[Oso]

xvart, why are you suddenly confidant I am scum?

I think we are going to be heading very quickly into mass claim here.

Oso, are you saying you want vezo to claim his result and then you will claim yours?

I'm not exactly sure where you are heading with the above post but if that's the point then I am behind you. I'm willing to believe Kage got an innocent on you, he was outted yesterday and if he had a guilty he would have just come out with it at that point.

Correct. Like I stated above. I have pretty solid evidence of one scum. Solid enough that I don't think I'll have any problem convincing you folks to lynch.

In addition, because of what I know, if vezo names a certain player, then I will know vezo is lying. Not about being being a watcher (I believe that part of his claim), but about being a town watcher, because as town he would have zero reason to lie about it.

As to mass claim, that is where it's headed but let this play out a bit longer. Lynching scum today can put that off until later time if that's what everyone wants. What I know I don't want to happen is me ending up NKed and not giving you folks what I do know, in addition to what I think I know.

Edit before submit. @diddin, don't even think of it totallynotmafia snipped it for a reason.

[Oso]

True and I believe he is a watcher. But I know of one person who has absolutely no possibility of being at Poirot's last night. vezo doesn't have to tell the truth but if he hits on this one player, then I can absolutely say with 100% certainty, the report of a second person is a lie.

[Oso]

xvart, why are you suddenly confidant I am scum?

I think we are going to be heading very quickly into mass claim here.

Perfect for scum unless this is PR heavy.

Bingo. We are PR heavy. Unless some of us claimed folks are flat lying.

We can still wait on Aranneas but I'll go ahead and do as I promised.

Full Claim:Town Tracker

(to go along with my neighbor status).

Night 1-I tracked Poirot. He didn't visit anyone. Thinking here was nights 1&2, I was going to track my neighbors and see if I couldn't find some way to trust them before any or all of us were lynched or NKed. I didn't track diddin night 2 as planned because of his claim. I believed him when he made it. I believe it now.

Night 2-I tracked Sotty7. She visited diddin.

VOTE: Sotty7

I believe that she blocked diddin last night. That is why I was able to get results last night despite being jailed. diddin got blocked.

The short version of why I feel this way. No nightkill night 1. Only that we can point to that prevented it was diddin's claimed jailing of Sotty7. Whether you think it prevented Sotty from being killed or killing is irrelevant as far as diddin's action goes because diddin's action prevented

SOMETHING

. Unless you believe scum are pulling some sort of gambit by not killing night 1, diddin is town.

The only reason for anyone to visit diddin as town would be to verify alignment. Not even to role block in my opinion because it would be like blocking a claimed doctor (which is pretty much what diddin is).

Scum have every reason to block him though if they can. He might be jailing either of the other 2 claimed PRs (vezo,Kagelord) so diddin has to be neutralized in some way before they can try to kill either of the other two.

That was short version detailing the conclusions I reached. I'll post a longer version that details my thinking if you folks don't mind stepping in to my head for a bit. And it gives time for you folks to chew over what I said and ask questions if you want. There are some holes in this and I will address them in the longer post.

[Add on before submit]As to why I was so adamant about vezo giving his result, TOO MANY PRS (<- I know, I have to stop saying that ). But it was the truth, if he named Sotty as the second person, then he was outright lying and also, with all the PRs running around at night, I wanted to make sure it wasn't me he had tagged. The way this is turning out, I wouldn't be surprised if somehow I wasn't redirected. I needed to confirm that I wasn't. The only difference that would have made really was I'd be going after Poirot right now instead of Sotty if I had been the second person vezo saw last night.

[Oso]

I still can't imagine how Vezok would lie as scum about his watch. It would serve no purpose. If vezok was scum, he would know who his partners were actioning on and avoid going for the same person. He would try to find a PR and have no qualms about outing them when asked. My point is that your trap wasn't very likely to succeed even if he was scum for his best bet is to play the role.

Agree with most of that. You have to consider the secondary reason in there, I was also trying to confirm that I wasn't the second person that vezo saw (see the edit before submit in my last). My part of the deal in this is come completely clean about my results, my role and my thinking. That was pretty much inherent when I asked for vezo results before giving my own.

So, you guys are going to get it all. Including all primary, secondary, tertiary reasoning. What I know, what I think I know, what I suspect and what I am keeping an eye out for. I've taken what I have as far as I can on my own. So, I'm giving it to the game and see what you guys can do with it.

[Oso]

Apologies, this is going to be a bit long and it may rehash some of what I have said before (and this is just up to my last post, any info that comes out while I am writing this isn't going to be included).

What I know, that you folk know.

The deaders and their alignments.
Vezo is a claimed watcher.
diddin is a claimed Jailkeeper/Neighbor
I am a claimed Tracker/Neighbor
Poirot is a Neighbor
----
diddin jailed Sotty7 Night 1 (action, from what we can see in the thread so far, prevented a kill in some manner)
KG investigated me Night 1 (results ambiguous)
vezo watched me. (found KG visited me)
I tracked Piorot (he stayed home)
quadz08 lynched
There was no Night 1 kill
----
diddin jailed me Night 2 (action failed)
vezo watched Poirot (finds KG and xvart visited)
xvart visited Poirot (action unkown)
KG visited Poirot (investigation unkonwn)
I tracked Sott7 (she visited diddin)
Sotty7 visited diddin (suspected by me as a scum roleblock but action unknown to the rest of the thread)
Tazaro Lynched
KageLord Night Killed

What I know that you folks don't know

Nothing. If I know it as true to the best of my ability in regards to my role, you folks know it too.

What I think I know.

Diddin is exactly what he says he is:Town Watcher in addition to being a neighbor with myself and Poirot. So far we not only have evidence in the thread that his ability works (no Night 1 kill) we also have no evidence in the game that contradicts what he has said, other than his play might be called into question but, in my opinion, that doesn't get anywhere near justifying overturning his claim.

Poirot: Going to go out on a limb here and say he's town. He has been the focus of considerable night activity and in the process, nothing has come of that that would point to his being scum. His play, while I would consider it borderline, isn't outright scummy. I have had my disagreements with some of his reasoning (and his skepticism of some of my reasoning) but that isn't scummy. Just irritating to me personally.

xvart: also leaning strong town. Pretty much because of his play so far. He puts thoughts into his post and doesn't seem adverse to changing or modifying his positions based on new information or a different interpretation of his post by another player. By far, in my opinion, the only player that deserves "Obvious Town" based on his play alone. But someone I am keeping a watch on. Why have IGMY on him? Paranoia mainly. I have no doubt that vezo is a watcher but I do have some doubts about his alignment at this point. That relates to xvart in that vezo tagged him looking over Poirot last night. If vezo flips scum at some point, I'm going to have to look back at xvart. Call me a paranoid bugger but I don't like coincidences and that vezo and xvart both chose to look at Poirot last night is a coincidence. I know they happen and that they do quite frequently (diddin's save/block on Night 1 is a good example from this game) but I still try and look for enemy action in them. The good side of that is that xvart previously expressed some doubt about Poirot so his presence there (as a Town PR) is easily explainable depending on what role he ultimately cops to. Not so vezo, but I'll get to that in a bit.

Sotty7: Scum role blocker. Diddin had a successful action Night 1 and not on Night 2. The simplest way to explain this is that he lied about Night except I know that Sotty7 visited him on Night 2. Assuming he did prevent the kill Night 1 (either through his save or his block) the simplest reason now becomes that he was blocked by Sotty, preventing his Jailing of me from being successful. I'm willing to listen to Sotty's explanation but I have to be honest, it's going to take a major amount of decent reasoning to get me off this. If Sotty is town, she knows there is a decent chance that diddin saved her from a night kill so any doubts she had about his alignment should have been put on the back burner until she had more evidence that pointed to him being scum, at least in my opinion. She certaily shouldn't have been out blocking him (the assumption I'm making). The easiest and simplest explanation is what I put forth yesterday, she KNOWS he prevented the night kill because she was the scum tapped to make it. Visting and blocking diddin makes no sense as town at that point but it makes a lot of sense if you are scum and you need to make sure the JK is not jailing the unknown PR so that he remains Nightkillable and you can off him before he gives any role related results. Is there a hole in my theory, yes there is. There is the possibility my conclusions are wrong because I have based them on incomplete information or have made a wrong guess based on the information that is there.

vezo: Number 2 on the scum parade. Why? Why the hell was he watching Poirot last night instead of KG or diddin? Answer: Denyability. Only reason I can think of. Town Watcher should have been been watching either KG or diddin like a hawk. Scum watcher wouldn't want to get near either one of them so they don't have to give out any info and possibly make a mistake. Easiest way to do that is avoid watching them altogether and choose someone else to watch. Whether vezo lucked out and got yet another town role exposed or was using that to help set up xvart for an innocuous RC in addition to avoiding KG and diddin, is yet to be seen and really can be looked at down the road. But this possibility is why I am keeping an eye on xvart. But I will stress, xvart remains firmly in my 'town' pile as of this moment.

q21: Would be my third choice right now and the weakest scum read in my pile right now. He's not off enough to warrant a lynch out of hand but he has lurked around pretty much during the game and I would be fully in favor of pressurizing him enough to get some activity out of him after the rest of this is dealt with. In all honesty, he has landed in my scum pile by default of his lurking. I haven't concentrated on his post too much so far because the main focus of my game started off as trying to get something to use on my neighbors to either trust or distrust them and got sidetracked from that point.

Aranneas: Again, like q21 but more so. Since jay flaked so early in the game, I haven't given his posts the attention I should have so I have even less of a read on him than I do q21.

SSBF: Dead neutral. He has gotten some attention from me in reading the thread and the main problem I have with him is pretty much the same as I have had with Poirot. His playstyle irritates me a bit, but he hasn't, in my opinion, done anything particularly scummy, or particularly town either. I can see where some of his ideas can bite town in the ass (dealing in absolutes as seems to be his habit being one of them) but scum? No, not at this time.

So, lynch Sotty. She's scum.

Take a good look at vezo and decide based on his answers of why he is playing watcher the way he is and decide if he is scum. I'd lynch him right now if for some reason folks don't want to lynch Sotty, but I can see where others might want to hold off.

Past that? Too far into the future and that is pretty much my belief as to the state of the game at the moment.

[Oso]

..
I am also someone that likes to hide my role when I have one. I will only claim if needed, like just now. I don't breadcrumb. The only exception to the rule is the cop guilty/innocent crumbs.

Not buying that explanation. You may very well do that, but it fails in this case, in my eyes, as instead of giving me a reason to disbelieve my theory yesterday by saying that you had blocked diddin Night 1, you attacked me instead. Granted, I have demonstrated I am bulldog in this game when I get something in my head it is not easily dislodged but did you think I would give your claim no consideration?

[Oso]

..
Although his claim is more believable; I am not on the diddin is 100% town train yet. I still think it is possible that diddin could be scum that claimed sotty's rb targets when he was put under pressure.
..

Um, I think I might be misunderstanding what you are trying to say.

How would he know Sotty's RB targets? Unless you think he knew he was blocked Night 1 but then how would he know Sotty did it?

Like I said, I am probably misunderstanding what you are trying to say.

[Oso]

Right now, I lean towards a claim today, which will give us more planning width and ensure we know your information but I'll wait to see what Oso has to say about it.
PREV EDIT: @Oso? What say you?

I have a town read on xvart. A strong one as I indicated.

I like having as much information as possible as soon as possible. That's the way I am. But, time for some trust on my part. If he says we are better off without his claim today and that he will bring it forward when it can do the most good, I can live with that.

[Oso]

I'm not adverse to that line of thinking.

Just to make sure I'm reading you right though:

At this point, we both agree that Sotty is scum (based on our own conjectures about how the roles are interacting)?

We both agree that vezo is watcher but that he might be a scum watcher?

I think diddin is town (Pre-Doc RC on your part) but you think he is scum based on your role and how you think all these roles are interacting?

We both seem to agree that Poirot is town and that we also seem to trust each other a bit?

If I got that right, then I don't think you and I are that far off on what we are thinking. Certainly close enough that others in the thread can make some decisions of their own based on what they think of us and our reasoning and the people we have laid out as suspects/non-suspects.

[Oso]

..
That's the million dollar question. Since Sotty was the last person to claim (outside of me but it seems obvious that I was likely doctor by the general consensus) Sotty could have blocked someone unclaimed and assumed that that person is VT and wouldn't be able to support or deny an action occurred on him.

I think since so many PRs have claimed (and that I would be surprised if any additional PRs were in the game, I think it would be safe to have all the unclaimed claim, just in the off chance there is some additional night information. Does anyone disagree?

..

No objection from me. When we had KG, Diddin and KG outed (to varying degrees) Day 2 and with me catching another PR night 2 and vezo doing the same, the momentum towards a mass claim is pretty much there.

The only question in my mind is when to do it. Today before the lynch or tomorrow with one more night of info to go on. I favor today.

[Oso]

EBWOP:

KG, Diddin and KG outed=vezo,Diddin and KG

[Oso]

Actually, there are three exposed PRs under that scenario (if you assume they are all town)

vezo-watcher
diddin-JK
xvart-Doctor

The only one that has protection is me. Either through xvart or diddin, depending on what you think the set-up is at the moment.

xvart has some protection provided vezo is indeed town as any kill on him will be exposed. He(xvart)doesn't survive but a scum gets caught.

[Oso]

Yeah (Unofficial of course).

Sotty7 - Oso, diddin, xvart,

HP

, q21, vezo

HP voted and unvoted. veso was the hammer here. I listed the players in voting order.

5 out of 9 players (again, unofficial)

[Oso]

I'd say no to that. The rest of players can't read what we say in there.

Best to go with what has been said here in the thread. I track you, I get a result (or die), you're scum.

If I don't get a result then it's up to the other players to decide if there isn't some sort of collusion going on between us. Barring that discussion, then that would pretty much clear you in the eyes of the rest of the thread.

Best not to throw a wrench in that by doing something unexpected. At this point it is my personal call, that you(diddin) and I play it completely straight. Leave any unexpected moves and randomness up to scum and xvart.

[Oso]

Add-on Edit: By 'what we say' I mean all three neighbors. The folks in the rest of the game have only our word on what is actually being said in there.

[Oso]

I'll add my welcome to Charter as well. Welcome

..
Right now... I'm thinking xvart has to be scum due to the 2 protective roles issue. Which makes me wonder about plenty of things (considering he has been a town read from day 1).

I feel weird that Oso seemed so sure about diddin's alignment (and why did he talk so much at night when we were unconfirmed?) but his claim mid-game when it wouldn't be necessary as scum still puts him in a town place.

Something else I doubted was that all neighbours would be town but I can't imagine him bussing sotty in such a way.
..

I was pretty sure. His claim was an L-1 claim, a lot of pressure there so you could assume he made up a claim that fit the situation. He saw there was no night kill so he made up a claim that could account for it OR that he claimed his real role. Since there was no sort of counter-claim at the time, the smart play (at least in my book) was to conditionally treat the claim as true on the face of it and try to incorporate his role into what had happened in the game so far. I went the route that he had blocked killer rather than protected the target (no N1 kill and no other claimed protective or blocking role) and some other players went the other way and assumed the 'protected the NK target' part.

My suspicions of Sotty7 (or rather, my suspicions of what I thought might be happening. At that point, Sotty herself had done nothing suspicious in her play up to the point I put forward the "blocked the killer" theory) are what prompted me to follow her N2. When diddin said he jailed me but I still got a result that night I was as close to sure he was a JailKeeper(as he claimed) as I ever am about anything in a mafia game. Under no scenario could that I could come up with, would Sotty(scum) visit diddin(scum) at night. The only thing that could account for that is Sotty(town)/diddin(scum or town) but with the lack of an N1 kill, diddin had to be, by my thinking at the time, A)exactly what he claimed to be (a JailKeeper) a B)Role-Blocker or a C)Doctor. The only question I had in my mind at that point was that it could have been the exact opposite of what I thought. Sotty could have indeed been saved by diddin's jailing of her. But if she seriously entertained that as a reason, she would not have been out blocking (the only action that made sense if diddin had true claimed because I did get a result) the person that most probably saved her from an NK, that her made scum or REALLY paranoid town.

His alignment, for me, was nailed into place when Sotty flipped scum. As I said, I couldn't figure out why Sotty would visit diddin at night if they were both scum. From that, I decided diddin was confirmed until such time it might become clear I made a mistake esp. since the way the night actions were set up, I'd know (and you folks would know, providing you believed my claim of Tracker) for sure one way or the other by morning.

..One thing we DO know now is that sotty blocked diddin n2 because Oso could still track last night. We still don't know who got blocked by sotty n1.
..

"Elementary, my dear Poirot." (if I may mix up literary characters for a moment). diddin jailed Sotty7 night 1. She didn't block anyone (although, we will have to wait until the post game wash-up to know for sure if she tried to block N1 or not). And perhaps diddin even still stopped the kill. Role-Blockers are not required to block and we get back to my original supposition of D2: There was no night kill N1 because diddin had the scum tapped to make the NK in jail.

As to why I talked so much in an alignment unconfirmed night thread? No real answer except that is what it is there for, to talk at night. If you notice, none of us really talked about anything of any real substance. I posted a player read list, I did quite a lot of speculation about how the game might be set up and pretty much while all three of us relaxed a bit as the game went on, there is not now (and never really was) a lot of trust in there.

Aside from diddin talking about his possible gambit on vezo (which you correctly shot down and I agreed with you), the only real game related stuff we talked on was about revealing/not revealing the Neighbor Mechanic if one of us should be required to RC. The rest of it was basically speculation, fluff and several cautions all around not to say to say anything about night targets (this mainly directed to diddin after he claimed but before I claimed) or anything of real substance because scum might be listening. Last night was the first time we had openly acknowledged anything that had a real direct bearing on the game. And that was that we (diddin and I) stick to the planned night actions on our parts and don't go trying anything fancy. "Play it straight" was the phrase I used and, as far as I can tell, there was universal agreement in there that was the way to go.

[Oso]

Yes, my opinions are pretty much the same as yesterday.

I still think there is a high likelihood of vezo being a scum watcher rather than a town watcher. Currently trying to get an opinion on the non-PR players as to who might be a third member of the scum team.

Some things are in flux for me at the moment. The biggest being that since diddin has been confirmed town, that throws severe doubt in my mind on xvart's claim. Yesterday, because there was still a chance that I was wrong about dididn's alignment, the question of xvart could put off in my mind.

That is no longer the case and I am undecided at this point on that. The numbers say that the likelihood of two town protective roles is low but I won't just discard xvart's play up to this point out of hand. He has pretty much had a town read from the get go, based on the way he has been playing.

By the way, for any interested, I tracked diddin last night. No result.

@vezo, since you said "

Nothing happened at my house.

I'm assuming that you watched xvart as was suggested by Poirot and there were no visitors to him, yes?

[Oso]

..

What's that thought you were witholding?

The thoughts I was withholding was that I think Oso might be the likely scum, and possibly not even a tracker at all. For him to get a "no result" on diddin means diddin would have had to Jailkeep him. Why would town diddin JK Oso when that would have cleared him today? Especially considering diddin was a likely lynch today based on the end of day discussion yesterday. Yesterday, I think most people believed me being doctor over him being Jailkeeper, so why would scum kill a probable lynch, unless diddin would expose scum?

We never directed diddin on whom to Jailkeep, so non-tracker scum Oso would not be able to predict where he went last night, and would therefore expose Oso when diddin counterclaimed an alternate target.

I'll have to go back and check to see Oso's timing on his results to see if he had any inside information before it was discussed in thread.
..

I may be misunderstanding what you are trying to say but here:

..
This is what I think should be the plan for tonight in case I can't make it before the lynch.
if Sotty flips roleblocker and diddin is scum. He is lying about being a jailkeeper so he can't really block.

Therefore, diddin should protect/block Oso.

xvart should protect Oso regardless.
Vezok watches xvart.
Oso should track diddin. If he receives a result. diddin is lying.
..

As far as I can see, that was the agreed upon plan at end of day yesterday (the only person who voiced any objection was vezo and that wasn't much of an objection but a pointing out that had felt exposed).

I got the impression you agreed with it when you said this:

Go with Humble's Plan.

Since the results coming through on Oso depend on me protecting Oso does the scum want to do a little WIFOM tango during the night on whether or not I actually will or will I try and save Humble or q21? I think those are the two that are most vulnerable tonight with the state of the game and the night plans.
...

Diddin was directed and he confirmed in the neighbors thread that he did in fact, send in his night action according that plan. And I also confirmed my part in that plan, that I sent a track on him.

[Oso]

..
Page 14. What. The. Hell. Didn't read that, because I'm pretty sure my eyes would fall out.
..

Yes, that page may not have some of the longest walls in ms history, but I bet the page by itself ranks among the TOP 25 in length in ms history.

But maybe not, I haven't read every game
[/offtopic]

[Oso]

...
Alright, I think I've missed some stuff, because 747 isn't making much sense. I'll have to pick up a little before that when I'm not tired.

Post 747 was my pre-claim.

I wanted vezo's second player that visited HP for 2 reasons.

1)(Primary reason) - If vezo named Sooty7, then vezo had been messing with his results. We had pretty much conformed that vezo was a watcher in that KG had visited me. vezo named him and he confirmed. My concern was that, if I were in vezo's position, I'd have watched either diddin or KG, the only other 2 PRs in the thread at that point. That he didn't and watched Poirot instead made me suspicious. While I'm pretty sure that vezo wouldn't lie about who actually did show up, I wasn't convinced that he wouldn't add something to it to give a fellow scum member an alibi. But the only way I really could have confirmed that (at least to my satisfaction) was if he did name Sotty. He didn't.

2)(Secondary Reason) - By Night 2, I already knew we were pretty PR heavy in this game. Watcher, JK, KG(turned out to be cop) and myself (but I hadn't claimed yet by that point). When vezo claimed a second person had visited Poirot, with the game being PR heavy at that point (at least in my mind) I wanted to confirm that it wasn't me he had seen. I know the chance of a redirector of any sort being present in a normal mini is low AND there was no reason for me to think anyone had a inkling I was anything other than vanilla (or scum), but the chance I was wrong about that was just high enough, in my mind, that I wanted to confirm it. If it had been me vezo had seen, then I'd have made the same case I did after my claim, but it would have been against Poirot rather than Sotty7 as I would have actually been tracking him instead of Sotty.

[Oso]

Nobody targetted Xvart.

Charter more like scum now.
I can see jay saying he got a cop inspect on HP and try to lynch him. We would then lynch him the other day.

The thing is the scum tried to kill HP. We know that based on xvart claim. Or they didn't NK but that is a 1% chance or somehting.

So jay may be a lyncher on the mafia side to balance some things?

The bold part: We don't know that.

It is certainly possible though. But until endgame, we won't know for sure that xvart saved Poirot or the N1 kill was prevented by diddin. Just because diddin jailed the Scum RB doesn't follow that Sotty wasn't the one designated to make the kill. Remember, even if you disbelieve my claim or disbelieve vezo's, we have a town role(s) that watches or tracks specific players. The only way that works (to catch scum) is if scum have to 'designate a hitter'.

Point being, just because Sotty was the Scum RB, doesn't mean she couldn't have also been designated the killer on N1. Granted, that might point to her not blocking anyone at all N1 (she was busy trying to kill) but even that makes sense if vezo is scum (I'll re-iterate my reasons if you folks wish on that) as the ONLY person who had even given a clue to themselves being a PR on D1 was vezo. All of my case against Sotty (before I tracked her) was based on the belief that vezo would have been the target of a scum NK on N1 and he was still alive D2. That pointed to vezo having been protected (he wasn't, at that point our only claimed protective role on D2 was diddin, he claimed a jail on Sotty) or the killer having been blocked (again, diddin jailing Sotty explained that, at least to my satisfaction).

We now know that xvart says he protected HP N1/N2, so that could explain the the no-kill N1. Even if I grant that xvart is exactly what he says he is, I don't grant that he prevented a kill N1. I'm convinced, at least in my mind, diddin prevented that by BLOCKING Sotty.

Now granted, what I just said weakens my case on vezo, alot. But not fatally so. Sotty7 blocking vezo's softclaimed (whatever role) makes sense. Sotty7 jail by diddin, vezo gets a result because Sotty is blocked. So, where is the N1 kill? We have xvart claiming to have protecetd HP so we a have

POSSIBILITY

that 2 towns roles got lucky enough to totally thwart scum on N1. I'm not going to quantify the chances of that happening randomly.

What makes more sense is that Sotty was the designated hitter N1 because they had no real candidate to block, she didn't try to block anyone because vezo was (and is) scum. Who they actually tried to kill I have no clue as D1 was fairly chaotic and I don't see anyone's play being an outright danger to scum.

So here is my dilemma:

xvart makes a better lynch off the numbers. 2 protective roles in a mini normal game is exceedingly rare because that overpowers town. diddin is confirmed as a town protective role (JailKeeper). xvart's claim (Doctor) would overpower town (the possibility of another scum power role out there does exist though). The flip side to that is, at least in my opinion, xvart's play. Aside from a couple of things, he wouldn't even be on my 'possible scum' list except for his claim and diddin's flip.

vezo still stands a chance to be town though, depending on what xvart flips. If xvart flips almost any sort of scum (or town) PR that would have a reason to visit a townie(HP) w/o killing them, then vezo can still be a town PR. If xvart flips a plain vanilla goon or any scum PR that would actually help the target, then vezo lied about seeing xvart at Poirot's N2. He most likely told the truth about KG visiting but added something to help out a partner's claim/gambit. The flip side, again play in the game so far. vezo is far scummier based off pure play than xvart is.

[Oso]

EBWOF:Forgot to add. Vote coming on either xvart or vezo. Need to check on a thing or two from earlier in the game.

[Oso]

VOTE: xvart

Some of that is what I've already put forward. I did a quick ISO of xvart and I pretty much confirmed my opinion of him. He's been playing strong town and even the things that I thought were were off became explainable as more information came into the game. Namely claims and actions. His behavior lines up with my conception of town all down the line. I saw this though:

Shit. You're right. Scratch that.

But why would the scum kill diddin? He was a more than likely lynch today.

xvart.

Right after the post were I pointed out diddin was directed. I missed the second part. I read the

"Shit. You're right. Scratch that...."

and then went on to SSBF's post.

Poirot's Post - 846 goes into some of what I am going to say as well.

The bold part of xvart's quote is disingenuous. He already knows the answer to that question. He's hoping that the thread will draw the wrong conclusion.

No reason for scum to kill diddin if I'm scum. Makes more sense to keep him alive. I just sit back and say "Yes, I did not get a result last night." when it's confirmed that diddin did, in fact, jail me as directed. It confirms diddin as town but also goes a long way to confirming me as well if I'm scum. And I think it would have been that way. diddin was under the gun, not me. The players would have almost demanded he give out with his results first to see if I was in fact the target before asking me to confirm that I was blocked.

The fact of the matter is, even with it catching xvart(scum) claim out, diddin had to die. He was about to be confirmed by another confirmed townie. Yes, I referred to myself as town and and confirmed. I'm going to use the credibilty (now dead)KG gave me. He died and flipped cop while having said, in the thread the day before he was NKed, he thought I was town. Here:Post-678. So unless you want to argue sanity or argue that he didn't want to come out and give a confirmed 'guilty' result in order to get another day, then I am confirmed town even if it is a bit ambiguous by KG never having come right out and said I was 'Innocent'. I may be wrong in some of my reasoning but I'm not scum being deliberately wrong.

Put yourself into scum's shoes for a minute. Scum had to get rid of diddin even at the cost of one of their own. He(diddin) was the only role that can protect other confirmed roles. They have to get rid of him or take the chance he outguesses them and invalidates an NK through blocking or protecting while confirming a townie or outing a scum while doing so. He is(was) the biggest danger in the game to them once confirmed. I'm guessing that xvart hoped (wrongly) that his claim would get diddin lynched yesterday based on a counter-claimed protective role and getting into a comparison of play (diddin vs xvart) up to that point in the game. A comparison that xvart would have won had it took place, no question. Of course, he(xvart) would be lynched today in retaliation but an important thing would have happened, diddin wouldn't have been able to protect anyone last night leaving the way open to get the Tracker(me) or the Watcher (if you believe vezo is town).

[Oso]

..
Another thought, and I haven't looked at the numbers to see where this puts in terms of MYLO/LYLO in consecutive days, but it might be worth asking Charter to claim if he is a lyncher, claim his target, then that would help us narrow down the pool because he and his target would then be confirmed as non scum. If we lynch scum tonight, our trade off with Charter, if the numbers allow it, would be lynching his target, then lynching the final scum.

xvart.

We are 7 Now. If you presuppose 3 scum (1 now dead) then we are at 5:2. Not MyLo or LyLo.

Mislynch/NK puts us in LyLo tomorrow though 3:2.

Tagging scum today puts us at 4:1 tomorrow, putting off LyLo one more day.

No lynching is only an option today (pretty much allowing a no lynch tomorrow as well).

My thoughts: Lynch today. A mislynch today drops us into LyLo tomorrow with 2 scum remaining. A No-lynch today pretty much suggests a No-Lynch tomorrow (it will be 4:2 - MyLo) so you end up the following day in the same situation:LyLo 3:2. Just takes longer to get there is all. Unless you think someone will have have an insight due to two days of talking/No-Lynching then the play today, in my opinion, is to lynch

[Oso]

Apologies folks. Last day and a half or so has been a bit hectic in real life. Post to let you know I am still here but it may be a day or so more before I can resume my level of activity.

[Oso]

What I was saying is this.
Oso knows e is town. He had a cop flip town

He should be voting me.

But he doesn't. That looks like scum who want to force a lynch on the doc. I don't know how to explain it better but t makes sense for me.

KG flipped town, so? How does that relate to a watcher claim exactly, you are the one that caught him visiting me even. That pretty much nails you 100% as truthful in half of your claim. The watcher part. It's the alignment part that is in doubt.

Xvart, on the other hand, has a role that almost 100% identical to diddin's except it lacks the role-blocking aspect. Fluff it up any way you want but Doc and JailKeeper are close enough to identical in terms of play that they can be considered equal when looking at claims. diddin was a Town aligned JailKeeper therefore, at least in my mind, xvart's claim has to be false.

There are some points that have been brought up in the last couple days or so (I just caught up mostly) though that I hadn't considered and will take a look at. So, right now, my xvart vote isn't as set in stone as it is when I made it. It's staying where it is at for the moment but I'm doing some review of it.

[Oso]

My vote is staying on xvart.

Post 768

That's exactly my point though, your (town) flip would tell us that diddin was scum no questions asked since it is highly highly unlikely that there would be two town aligned roleblocking roles. And if you flip scum, it makes diddin's claim more likely to be true. If you both are roleblockers like you both claim to be, you are not on the same side. Knowing what you knew at the time, there is no way someone aligned with town would say that these circumstances would yield no information about the other's alignment.

xvart.

That was xvart's response to Sotty7 when she said that her flip as town wouldn't reflect any at all on diddin's alignment. The role-blocking part is stressed there. Flip that around a bitand look at the 'Doc' part of diddin's role, note that his alignment is confirmed (being that he is dead and flipped) and then look at xvart's claim. The same logic applies here. To be quite honest, had(xvart) countered diddin on the day diddin made his claim, I'd have been the first on the diddin wagon. That he waited to counter until after he had been tagged performing a night action counts very heavily against him in my book.

Especially in light of this question in Post 783:

..
SSBF, diddin, and vezok - if you had to guess and based on what you know, what do you think my night action is? (and yes, there is a point to this question and I will explain fully; I'm not trying to create a claim based on what people think)
..

Despite his disclaimer, I can't think of any reason to ask that question unless there is some doubt in his mind as to whether his claim is going to be believed. Now whether you think he had doubts because he is actually a Doctor and thought he might end up lynched when stacked up to diddin's claim or that he was fishing for a believable role is up to you. I am believing the latter because of diddin's claim and these (all xvart posts):

Post 798:..Like I said, I think you should track diddin tonight no matter what happens..(This towards me.)
-
Post 802:..Do you agree that tracking diddin tonight will yield us important information about his alignment? What do you think will happen if we track diddin?...(This to SSBF.)
-
Post 807How do you feel about being tracked tonight? (This to diddin.)
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Post 819:Go with Humble's Plan. Since the results coming through on Oso depend on me protecting Oso does the scum want to do a little WIFOM tango during the night on whether or not I actually will or will I try and save Humble or q21? I think those are the two that are most vulnerable tonight with the state of the game and the night plans. (This to the thread in general.)
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Post 823:No. Stay on target. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMDV3eISLPs#t=0m20s (This again to diddin.)
-
Post 837

..
The thoughts I was withholding was that I think Oso might be the likely scum, and possibly not even a tracker at all. For him to get a "no result" on diddin means diddin would have had to Jailkeep him. Why would town diddin JK Oso when that would have cleared him today? Especially considering diddin was a likely lynch today based on the end of day discussion yesterday. Yesterday, I think most people believed me being doctor over him being Jailkeeper, so why would scum kill a probable lynch, unless diddin would expose scum?

We never directed diddin on whom to Jailkeep, so non-tracker scum Oso would not be able to predict where he went last night, and would therefore expose Oso when diddin counterclaimed an alternate target. I'll have to go back and check to see Oso's timing on his results to see if he had any inside information before it was discussed in thread

..

5 instances that I could find where xvart acknowledges that he not only knows about the plan to have diddin jail me, and me track diddin, but 2 of them (819,823) where he makes a point of stressing that is what should be done. Sudden brain fart just doesn't seem to quite cover that.

[Oso]

Oso, you're being extremely hypocritical here. Jailkeeper and Doctor are similar. As are Cop, Watcher, and Tracker. You're voting for Xvart because his role is similar to one that's died. Why should we not vote you for being a similar role to one that died? Or why shouldn't we vote for Vezo. Why aren't you voting for Vezo?

In addition, you're ignoring the overwhelming circumstantial evidence pointing towards Xvart being a doctor (and I'm not seeing scum doc in this game one bit). The biggest is that there was no NK night one, and it's unlikely Sotty made the kill (again, zero benefit from her doing it, and they lose the roleblock). Plus, there's Vezo's watching him visit HP. He wasn't killing HP, so he has some other role. I find two mafia roleblockers to be highly unlikely. At that point, you might as well not have any town power roles. It's possible he's some other kind of role, but frankly, him being a doctor makes the most sense.

Yes, I think I've talked myself in to one of Oso or Vezo being scum. I'll agree that Vezo has definitely been scummier, but something I just thought of was how Oso immediately brought up Kage being insane. I don't see that as very likely if he were town. I'll have to reread that as well.

unvote

I see it's clear we're not lynching q21 today, so I'll save that for after we get another scum. I'm not voting Xvart.

NO ONE SHOULD HAMMER XVART RIGHT NOW. Still need some time today to reread.

Nope, not hypocritical.

If vezo or I flipped town, then I would say those roles are similar enough to lynch the other off of that, as scum. Cop gives an alignment. Tracker and Watcher just determine if someone has a night action and who they perfoemwd that action on. There is virtually no similarity between a cop and Watcher/Tracker except that a Watcher/Tracker might be thought of as a 'nerfed' cop when used in tandem and using POE. Neither can definitively determine alignment like a Cop can.

Not so Doc and JailKeeper. They are identical in all respects except for the role blocking power of Jailkeeper. If you go to the wiki here, Jailkeeper=Paranoid Doctor but he is told of his role blocking ability. A Jailkeeper

IS

a Doctor. Not similar to, not kind of like, but is a Doctor.

As to the overwhelming evidence, someone had to make the kill N1 and was prevented. Just because you wouldn't take a pass on using a role block ability to be the person to make the kill on N1 (or any other given night) doesn't mean that someone else wouldn't do so. I still maintain that xvart's claim is false and that using his claim to explain the no kill on N1 is just wrong.

[Oso]

..
Yes, I think I've talked myself in to one of Oso or Vezo being scum. I'll agree that Vezo has definitely been scummier,

but something I just thought of was how Oso immediately brought up Kage being insane.

I don't see that as very likely if he were town. I'll have to reread that as well.
..

And by the way, the bold is flat wrong. There is only one post where I mention sanity in reference to KageLord here Post-851:

..
The fact of the matter is, even with it catching xvart(scum) claim out, diddin had to die. He was about to be confirmed by another confirmed townie. Yes, I referred to myself as town and and confirmed. I'm going to use the credibilty (now dead)KG gave me. He died and flipped cop while having said, in the thread the day before he was NKed, he thought I was town. Here:Post-678.

So unless you want to argue sanity or argue that he didn't want to come out and give a confirmed 'guilty' result in order to get another day, then I am confirmed town even if it is a bit ambiguous by KG never having come right out and said I was 'Innocent'.

I may be wrong in some of my reasoning but I'm not scum being deliberately wrong.
..

That is the only post where I have mentioned sanity in relation to KG. I did ask to folks consider (in my Post 747, the one you(Charter) expressed some confusion over) if KG had gotten a 'Guilty' on me and kept quite about it in order to get another investigation in.

The first person to mention sanity in regards to KG was HP in Post - 720 when he responds to diddin's Post 717

Other mentions of sanity in relation to KG

Humble Poirot: Post-755 (It's in there. That was a wall.)
diddin: Post-763
Humble Poirot: Post-794
xvart: Post-837
xvart: Post-852
Humble Poirot: Post-863
Humble Poirot: Post-886

And then the next mention is Charter's post about how I immediately brought up how KG was insane. But you are right, it is not something a townie would bring up. See any patterns in the above list of who mentioned it

In order to make me lynchable and to have my thoughts discounted, scum have to break the impression in the thread that KG got an innocent on me.

@HP. Yes, it does look a lot like KG's wagon except if you are going to accuse anyone of sheeping, then I'd have to be a sheep. q21 was the first to place a xvart vote. I was second.

Plus, I recall no one believing my thoughts on Sotty7 either at first. I recall some of the arguments being made that went sort of along the lines of "How can you think one of the least scummiest(or outright town) players so far could be scum?" or "So, we are just supposed to follow your gut because you are right?"

[Oso]

Ok, Ill go this far.

UNVOTE:

So far pretty much everyone has made their positions clear except SSBF. I'll relent enough so that xvart can't get hammered during the night because he is at L-1 (my real life night. I'm for bed here in a few).

[Oso]

..
Oso - we lynch Vezok today and if he flips scum you're pretty much cleared. That leaves q21 and SSBF. You track one of them and I guarantee you won't die (as long as I am not the lynch). One of them will have to make the kill. If the person you track goes to the person who dies then we have the last scum. If that person goes no where and there is still a kill then it is the other person. The only problem is if they no kill that night, but that's okay too because we buy enough time to lynch both q21 and SSBF.
..

It is obvious that you are not getting lunched to day xvart. SSBF was pretty much the only person left who I had a hope of being swayed to your lynch. So, I'ma hold you to that.

VOTE: vezokpiraka

(If by some twist of fate, we are in LyLo right now, I'ma shit twice and die I think.)

[Oso]

I'd go ahead and wait to get everyone's thoughts if I didn't have a result.

VOTE: Super Smash Bros. Fan

I tracked him to Charter last night so no real need to wait on his opinion unless you guys just want to hear from him.

[Oso]

Looks like I've been lynched. Might as well bow out and admit that I'm scum now since I have no other scum partners in the game. Still, this has been a pretty enjoyable game for me and I do commend how town manage to come off out of a bad position.

More thoughts later when I get the time (I have a lot of homework to catch up on and some studying to do, so don't be surprised if final thoughts on the game from me doesn't come until tomorrow).

That's a relief

Log it off to rampant paranoia but when xvart mentioned MyLo/LyLo with one scum down, I couldn't shake the feeling that there were actually 4 scum in this game. No way to back it up though.

Town JK/Cop/Tracker/Watcher up against 2 RBs, a Goon plus an Investigation Immune Godfather. Which was why I was fully relieved to see vezo flip scum. Up until totallynotmafia posted vezo's alignment, I had thought there was a better than average chance we had just lost.

[Oso]

..
Haha. The second after I hammered I couldn't help but regret it, also thinking that maybe there were four scum since the town had so much power. The whole three town mason group was really kicking me, so then I started thinking that maybe Oso was scum tracker and vezok was (obviously) scum watcher, and those two roles were supposed to balance out the doctor movement. I started thinking that Oso was trying to pull a fasts one and get the wrong person lynched (if there were four scum) which would hand them the win.
..

It was fun for the most part (there was a period on D2 when I was about ready to cash it in though). As to the three Town Neighbors, no way in hell it would have ever functioned as a mason group. Too much distrust for too long. Being unconfirmed basically just gave three people the chance to play the day part of the game at night.

The mechanic that tnm used of having all three of the neighbors be town could have helped scum if 2 of the 3 had of been NKed early or lynched/Nked early. The third neighbor still alive might have been auto-scummed by the rest of the town players esp. if it had been HP who remained alive. 2 Town PRs and a VT? How many people would have bought that one

[Oso]

I'd have to agree that Sotty7 played excellently as scum. My whole basis for suspecting her initially was based on what I thought of the game mechanics up to that point. Until I tracked her to diddin, I had no solid evidence from her posting that she was even remotely scummy. Just a vague feeling that diddin had scored big on his night 1 jailkeep....turned out I was wrong there

I'd give xvart the town MVP Award. With his Doc claim coming out a day after diddin's jailkeeper claim, had he been acting the least bit scummy in the game up to that point, I think he'd have been lynched. It was pretty much on his play alone that I think I wasn't able to sell the rest of the thread on lynching him once diddin's role was confirmed. (And props to you guys for not allowing that to happen). Good thing I was a Tracker instead of a Vig. I'd have definitely shot him over that one.

[Oso]

Oh, and my thanks as well to totallynotmafia. Thanks for running the game and I enjoyed playing it.

[Oso]

..
Thanks; that makes me feel better even thought I railroaded two townies and got one of them lynched. This game really reminds me of that narration of one of the characters in The Legend of Bagger Vance where they describe his play as all terrible shots into the rough and a strong finish at the end (wish I could find a youtube video).
..

One of may favorite movies

I think Will Smith was talking to Matt Damon about Bruce McGill's character (Walter Hagen) on why he was a good golfer. Something along the lines of of "...three terrible shots and one brilliant shot makes par." or something to that effect.

[Oso]

...

As far as I know, I still may be naive cop.

The only result I got was innocent Oso. I couldn't actually clear him (though in my mind, I mostly did) because of the sanity issue, but at least I'd get to let you know my result. I found it hilarious though when Oso mentioned the possibility of my insanity, considering that would make him scum.
...

Actually, that was the first thought that popped into my mind when you flipped from the NK, which was why I didn't try to play on implied result you seemed to breadcrumb until later in the game. But naive or not, I knew you had implied the correct result on me.

When diddin and vezo came out, and me knowing my role, naive cop made perfect sense if all 4 of us were town. JK, tracker, watcher wouldn't overpower town if the cop were basically a VT that gave only innocents.

[Oso]

..
Oso, the funniest thing is that you voted and tracked Sotty thinking that diddin had blocked the scumkill... And that was entirely false. Oh, the ironies of mafia.
..

Definitely. That is why I like reading Mason, Scum and Dead QTs after the games. It's absolutely amazing the things people get right....for all the wrong reasons.

[Oso]

I was never really sold on KG being sane. Naive would be my guess. Town had WAY too much power with a sane cop. Naive Cop would basically be a VT with some non-functional window dressing. And even if naive, the claim itself with no counter would pretty much make him lynch immune.

[Oso]

I agree.

That Sotty7's block of Diddin allowed me to get a result was key I think. It wasn't strictly needed for a town win but it sure did help a lot in finally getting the first scum lynched and flipped so that some decent connections could start being made.