Ladies Night -- Game Over

[Hoopla]

Hello everyone and may the best team win.

[Hoopla]

Who I'm not lynching today: camn, Fenchurch, Ojanen

Camn is such a powerful influence as town and Fenchurch and Ojanen I deem to have the most accurate and logical playstyles that are amazing to have on your side, and that are difficult to fake (the perfect combo). UncertainKitten is fairly easy to read, though I have no immediate interest to divulge any of that information. Haylen will probably be a nuisance and inaccurate as town and easy to catch as scum. DrippingGoofball is the wild card who carries a lot of influence even if her radar isn't so hot. Has flashes of brilliance and remains a threat to the scumteam as there is no guarenteed long-term plan to exploit her influence or keep her in the dark - is probably more of a threat

as

scum, because she can get away with justifying anti-town gambits with her meta. Sotty is gifted as scum, who will ruthlessly bus when given the chance - be wary to give her credit for being on a scum lynch.

The rest of you

, I don't care about so much. But I am willing to take an interest in you now. Tell me about your playstyle, your in-game experiences and what you offer the town by being alive.

Vote: Haylen

[Hoopla]

Thank you for proving to me you're more valuable as scum than town. Why do you think this is? Do you think you're a poor scumhunter or lazy as town?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla...I calculated my win rate yesterday and found I have a 26.1% win rate as town, 92.9% win rate as scum and a 75% win rate as third party. Do the calculations show I'm easy to catch as scum? ~_~

Looking at your wiki, I count your mafia/werewolf record as 9/4 which is about 69%. You're back at 6/4 if you remove newbie games, too. Is your wiki up-to-date or did I just count wrong? If you're exaggerating or including games from somewhere else, why?

[Hoopla]

It's not really statistics, though. It's just adding up how many games you've won and lost. You can do that can't you?

[Hoopla]

Well, those two bump you up to about 73%. How do you know I didn't include that game?

[Hoopla]

Did you genuinely believe your scum win rate was 92%?

[Hoopla]

I just don't understand how you could mess up that equation. Can you explain Dyscalculia to me more, and how it affects you? (I'm not trying to be rude)

[Hoopla]

Esuriospiritus: Do you think any of my argument with Haylen has been relevent or telling of alignment at all?

[Hoopla]

Dyslexia I have an intriguing version of because my spelling is generally perfect, it's just whether or not I get the correct word that's the problem. One might suggest using a spell check, but that's not going to work if the words spelt right. For example, I got penalised in my coursework because I wrote 'phonetic' rather than 'problematic'.

That isn't dyslexia. And I feel like you're strongly exaggerating with these;

* Difficulty with conceptualizing time and judging the passing of time.

Anyone ever wonder why I quickhammer, thinking the deadline is in about 5 minutes? It's because of this.

* Difficulty with everyday tasks like checking change.

To make it worse, I work on the tills in a shop.

* Difficulty keeping score during games.

The reason I don't play table tennis or badminton competitively. I find keeping track of vote counts difficult too because of this.

If you have such difficulty counting and keeping track of votes and money you wouldn't be running newbie games, and you wouldn't be working on cash registers in shops after your boss realises your till is always out random amounts of money. Even if you are lying/exaggerating, I feel like this is a dead end, because it's something you'd probably be telling me regardless. We're shifting away from the exaggeration of personal statistics, and it's probably my fault there. So, moving back on track - I struggle to believe you messed up that one equation, especially after having someone else check it for you.

I don't think it's inherently scummy, but it is an anti-town mindset, because it shows you're prepared to exaggerate/mislead in order to improve your point or win an argument. I hope you don't think I am picking on you at all - this is just how I am interpreting it, and I think I am right. And it partially justifies my vote, because I think there are times and will be times when you exaggerate to try and prove a point. What do you think about that?

[Hoopla]

Okay, I'm sorry. Lets talk about something else then.

[Hoopla]

1--
2--
3--
4--
5--
6-- My reaction to Haylen's reaction.
7--
8--
9--
10--

Your turn Sotty.

[Hoopla]

1--
2--
3--
4-- My opinion of Sotty's recent opinion.
5--
6--
7--
8--
9--
10--


Apokaliptika; you're overjustifying.

[Hoopla]

Haylen, I'd say your reaction was about a 7. Hoopla, I may possibly be overjustifying, but I frankly think this mucking around with number/rating scales is a big waste of time, and neither you nor anyone else have shown that it is contributing to the game in any way, whether it be random fun or scumhunting.

Maybe it'd be more efficient with a bigger scale? How does 150 sound? Rate that idea on a scale of 1-150.

[Hoopla]

Well, different strokes for different folks, I suppose.

Hoopla, I'd like some elaboration on why you said that you wouldn't lynch Fenchurch, Ojanen or camn today. I'm presuming that wasn't entirely serious, but I'd like to more fully understand why you said that.

On a lighter note, I am loving not having to check pronouns

Because they have a track record of being powerful town players capable of breaking games wide open. I don't deem their scumgames to be nearly as potent, and in this set-up, if they're scum, our PR's might catch them anyway. They'd have to do something pretty disasterous to warrant me calling for their head on D1. So, to shock you, I was being serious.

[Hoopla]

Is it just day one you won't lynch them?

Yes. I think I will know by then.

[Hoopla]

Unvote, vote: Paws

[Hoopla]

So I'm not seeing the esuro love everyone seems to be getting. Her 69 actually bugs me seeing how she's accusing someone for over justifying yet is voting Apok for the use of one word.

Who exactly is giving esurio love? Camn voted her initially, and then took it back after liking one of her posts for some reason. That is the only positive comment she's received - can you elaborate on that comment?

[Hoopla]

Chauchau, slap down a vote on someone, right here, right now.

[Hoopla]

I like how I get votes because I have nothing to say on day 1

If nobody has anything to say on Day 1 we go nowhere. So say something and take us somewhere. Do any of the posts stand out at all so far? Put a vote down on someone if you find something.

[Hoopla]

I've got a hunch.

Unvote, Vote: Uncertain Kitten.

Lots of spread out suspicions, and she looks like she could be the sort of calculated, experienced scum who knows not to do anything to draw extraneous suspicion. I'm certain there's scum lurking somewhere in Uncertain Kitten, Snow Bunny, and Hoopla.

That's not a hunch - that's crap. I almost skimmed over it, until I saw the follow-up reasoning for this hunch;

I guessed there's likely scum between you, Snow Bunny, and Hoopla because you're three of the more articulate posters who don't strike me immediately as town-ish

That doesn't even make sense, and looks like you're just listing names for the sake of listing names, noticing a common trait between the three players and assuming one must be scum. You have no reasoning to back-up

why

this particular trait is likelier to evil, just as I don't have reasoning justifying why someone starting with 'S' is scum. Though, I debate how much UK, Snow and I have in common in the first place.

Unvote, vote: Sucrose

UK, what do you think about joining me on this one?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla. Null, slight town for stances. What analysis can you make of the answer to your question in page 1?

What question is that, cepi? I asked Haylen a few, and posed a general one asking about people's playstyles (though, technically it wasn't a question - more of an invitation). If you mean that one, it was a precedent to establish a foundation for meta of player's I don't know yet, to make it easier when I check later when necessary. Self-analysis is usually the most illuminating, because it gives you their perception of themself, which can be matched to what you find on your own outside this.

I questioned Haylen on this when I noticed a discrepency in her claimed win-rate, and she was quick to break down to AtE defenses and claims of being a sucky player. I was also dazzled by esurio and Snow's answers, also quickly reverting to their poor performances as town and not to expect much. In all of those cases, esurio feels the most genuine in her response, as she is keen to elaborate about her history and though she states she has been a weak player, shows intent to improve and not let herself be held to a low standard. Unlike Snow and Haylen who seem to expect this out if they happen to play in an anti-town manner.

[Hoopla]

DGB, why aren't you voting?

[Hoopla]

Huh?

Anyway, I've really been a bit busy. Just finished a game and won as scum that clears things a bit but I am still busy expect me here tomorrow.

Did you lurk your way to victory? Send us the link.

[Hoopla]

DGB, why aren't you voting?

I dropped my pencil and I'm too lazy to bend.

Can I vote for you then?

[Hoopla]

Hoopla: After skimming through a couple games you played, I'm finding you somewhat more suspicious. In Large Normal 105, you were town. In Mini 909 and Mini 865, you were scum. In each of the latter two, you said some things that drew definite attention to you (in the first, fakeclaiming miller; in the second, suggesting random D1 lynch.) In the game where you were town, I didn't see any such dramatic statements. To me, this indicates that you aren't afraid of drawing attention to yourself as scum, such as you did at the beginning of this day.

Can you explain why you elected to read games from my wiki that were 8+ months old, when I have a fresh new catalogue of games just dripping with relevent meta? My recent scumgames have no such 'dramatic' statement, as it were, and I've just completed a game as town fakeclaiming a role in my first post. I don't understand why you opted to create patterns of behaviour off such a small (and dated) sample size. You may have a point that I

can

be brazen as scum, but you also neglect to see if this patterns exists in my town behaviour. To me, I think you're overrelying on meta tells, when you don't really do them properly in the first place. Though, the fact you're willing to explore and invest effort in trying to unearth meta tells is a good sign. I generally expect these sorts of plays (particularly early, and particularly when not under pressure) to come from town, powered by a genuine desire to crack the game open, rather than scum, who doesn't gain much by going to all this effort to appear scumhunting.

~~

This next point might appear to be controversial, as I attempt to outguess the mod, but I want to run this idea past you all;

I'm waiting to hear back on the PMs I sent out for replacements. I'm not counting Paws' self-vote. I'm of the opinion that once someone asks to replace out, they are no longer part of the game. If the players want to go ahead with this lynch, they must do so without Paws' self-vote (although what the replacement does is their business).

This seems like a strange piece of mod intervention - initially I thought it was fair enough, but some of what is said doesn't match up with Red's previous treatment of Paws play once she asked to replace. I'll explain;

I'm of the opinion that once someone asks to replace out, they are no longer part of the game.

If that is truly Redcoyote's opinion, he should have made a note of it as soon as he saw Paws continuing to post after wanting replacement. Here is the timeline;

August 20th, 3:17pm

Paws has requested that she be replaced, so I am in the process of finding someone.

August 20th, 4:20pm

Paws say a final goodbye post, which is understandable to not comment on as mod.

August 20th, 10:11pm

Paws now starts talking about suspects and game-related material.

August 21st, 4:10pm

RedCoyote makes a note of Cepi's V/LA, which indicates he is up-to-date and following the posts of the game to this point.

August 22nd, 12:22am

Paws self-votes.

It is only after this point that RedCoyote intervenes with the game with his replacement rule. This is where it gets sticky, though - Red has shown previous acceptance of Paws' subsequent posts by way of ignoring it and not enforcing his rule/opinion. This shows he is subjectively enforcing a rule, based on what has been posted (a self-vote). It can be interpreted that Paws self-vote is significantly more game-changing than her previous posts, but how is RedCoyote to know what could be potentially gleaned from Paws post about her suspects. The fact that he has been inconsistent means he is stepping in

because

of the self-vote. It leads me to the logical conclusion, that it is likelier he is stepping in because there is more at stake (scum losing a player is individually more damaging to their chances, as opposed to town losing a townie).

Paws was always a good wagon, and this passage of play is too bizarre to ignore and not try to understand. Another interpretation is that Paws is a powerrole, which could explain Red's intervention. I'd say it's highly probable Paws is either a PR or a scumbag - to play it safe, we ought to wait for a replacement to get a claim, but this wagon almost certainly needs to be finished today.

[Hoopla]

Also, Red. Your post-counts are really distracting with the inclusion of crossed-out players on it. I'm assuming they're where everyone had their previous vote, right? I don't find it useful at all - just thought you should know. I also dislike the anal unvoting rule too, no doubt you picked that up from zoraster, I'm sure.

[Hoopla]

EDIT BY WAY OF PREVIEW: I'm not about to play out guess the mod. I am of the opinion that once you ask to be replaced you shouldn't be posting in the thread anymore period. I just really think Paws is scum

What's wrong with outguessing the mod, when this game's primary function is outguessing the player? The mod has confirmed information of the whole game - if he drops a big enough tell in one post to incriminate/clear someone, we ought to use it, even if we shouldn't have been told that information. Players try to read each other off one or two posts all the time, especially if they're something significant - I don't see why this rule exists beyond preventing players get distracted from how the game

should

work. I say should, because there

should

be no mod tells, but he is dropping one now and I'm going to use it.

[Hoopla]

I'm going to have to say that were I modding, and for some reason being incredibly lax on posting after requesting replacement, I still would not count any vote made by the replace outter because ANY vote is destablizing from a player who shouldn't be there, regardless of their alignment or role.

It has an objective, real effect on the game.

But it's okay to talk about suspects? I agree with DGB - one of the three Paws listed is likely to be scum, if Paws is scum. That's a piece of pretty handy information that has been leaked because Red didn't tell her to shut up. And then Red not telling her to shut up after that also makes you wonder about the importance of what she said then. That might actually be a town tell.

[Hoopla]

Unvotes are required before changing one's vote. This was stated clearly in the rules and will continue to apply throughout this game to minimize any possibility of vote-technical trickery.

Probably not the place to discuss this, but it seems to me that being strict about unvotes actually makes vote-trickery easier. I wouldn't have noticed at the time that esurio's vote was invalid if you hadn't pointed it out. If you just always allow a new vote to over-ride an old one, then players have less checking to do in determining whether a vote is valid or not.

Yeah, I was just about to post this. Fake hammers (amongst other things) are an easily exploitable trick in rulesets strict on voting (particularly the 'must unvote rule'). Though some players will have been conditioned to unvote before casting a new one, this is an uncommon enough rule, that other players will forget this. And if they do, it's annoying having to go back to the last vote count to see if they have a vote out, to ensure their current vote was okay. Even then, it runs the risk of someone not remembering to do that check.

[Hoopla]

I can. She wants to use meta to build crap cases.
It is actually a hot move, because then you can aggressively push a mis-lynch on so-called 'objective' grounds, and use 'changing meta' as your excuse when your victim flips town.
I have done it. I bet you have too

Yes, I have done it. It is a handy scum tactic. Although, the actual act of hunting meta is a town trait if you're looking at both sides of the coin equally and not searching for specific answers - otherwise you'll just find what you want. It falls into anti-town/scum territory when it's done wrong, misrepresents the player or is being depended on too heavily.

[Hoopla]

Can we lynch Paws now? DO you really want to wait on a replacement and a claim? Cuz I don't. I am feeling bloodthirsty, as usual.

Let us get a claim first, camn.

[Hoopla]

Ah, it was not nice to not wait me before lynching. I still want camn love, but I'm also interested in how the Paws wagon build so fast. Specially fenchurch's hammer vote.

But I will go on that later when I have a bit more time. Can't let the boss see I'm procrastinating when I should be working...

Snow, you have no idea what you're talking about. Fenchurch's hammer vote is about as town as hammer votes gets. DGB has provided some good preliminary reasoning on where we should be lynching today - but she's missing a trick here;

The Paws wagon is a REALLY BAD BAD BAD wagon to be on as scum.

It would look bad, even if LATE on this wagon.

Think: a quick wagon on a lurker

that was about to be replaced

. Were I scum, I wouldn't touch it with a barge pole.

The scum is here, in the pool of non-voters:

camn (1) (

Snow_Bunny

)
Apokalyptika (1) (

cepi

)
Snow_Bunny (1) (

chauchaudotcom

)
UncertainKitten (1) (

Sucrose

)
Sucrose (1) (

Hoopla

)
Not Voting (2) (

Ojanen

)

I'd suggest that the BACK-END of the Paws wagon is place scum would least like to be - opening up positions at the front for scum too. It would certainly not be such a heinous crime being situated at the beginning of the wagon. Everyone knows it's the back-end of wagons that receive the most heat, particularly on policy-esque type lynches, making the front of the wagon slightly safer. The three scum are

definitely not

all on the Paws wagon - I think we can all agree on that. I'm personally siding with one over two, mostly because there was little competition for Paws wagon to encourage or force scum to bundle on. This is the only time when scum will

all

bundle on a wagon - when they risk losing one of their own if that particular mislynch doesn't go through. It must be noted that bussing is less likely to be a prime scum tactic in this game, as this is one of the few games onsite that will start off with a natural town slant. This is two more lynches allowed for town, when compared to a regular 3:9 Mini Normal.

To summarise, I almost certainly will be lynching from the pool of non-Paws voters, with Snow, Sucrose, chauchau being my order of preference for the noose. I'll be bringing you some more shortly on this, but I just wanted to get my vote out there early.

VOTE: Snow Bunny

[Hoopla]

You don't (often) get a majority on town D1 without at least one scum. I guarantee there is one scum there, likely a goon, because as you said it was a bad wagon to be on.

Admittedly, 2/6 is a lot better than 1/7. I'm content to look off wagon for now.

In regard to mafia being on/off the wagon on a mislynch... I'm pretty sure someone analysed newbie games a while back, and found that scum were on/off in the same ratio as townies were. Might not apply here but I think the point is that it's worth looking at every person's play, rather than limiting the net to just one side of the wagon.

I have the data for 3:9 Mini Normal games, in regards to the amount of scum on and off the D1 mislynch of a townie. 3:9's are admittedly rather different from the set-up we're playing in now, but they're miles closer then 2-player scumteams, who function in a completely different manner than 3-player scumteams. Anyway;

Amount of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1

Town

Lynch (43 games):

0 Scum - 1 (2.1%)
1 Scum - 13 (27.7%)
2 Scum - 18 (38.3%)
3 Scum - 15 (31.9%)

Actual odds

of scum on a 3:9 Mini Normal Day 1

Town

Lynch:

0 Scum - (2.4%)
1 Scum - (25.5%)
2 Scum - (50.9%)
3 Scum - (21.2%)

The first box showcases the actual data of what has happened in games, whilst the second box is the odds of where scum would be if the votes were random. It's hard to know what you can extract from this information and what is directly relevent to this game. When I unearthed these stats, I was mostly surprised with how often all three scum were on the Day 1 mislynch of a townie, but I mostly attribute this to a high (25%) ratio of scum to townies, meaning that on Day 1, a scumbuddy is decently likely to be wagoned significantly at some point forcing scum to power through a townie mislynch. Looking at these individual wagons, it's almost always the case that a scum has been a competing wagon for a while - either that or the mislynch was on a lurker or someone pushed on policy grounds, giving scum a seemingly safe vote if they so wanted it.

The caliber of this player list is noticably a cut above the average newbie game, so this data might be slightly less relevent if the scum is familiar with bandwagon analysis (quite a few of us seem to have a very good grasp), which is something that makes me waver. Familiarity with scumtells and where scum is likely to be on wagons is the one thing that can thwart bandwagon analysis - scum knowing which tells are likely to be used against them are fully capable of manipulating this to their advantage. This is the reason why I mostly play Mini Normals, because bandwagon analysis is so effective against 3-6 month old players.

Breaking down the wagon to it's individual votes, there are a few that stand out. Sotty's to begin with is strange;

I don't mind policy lynches as much in larger games, would prefer if we didn't have to fall back on that tacit however.

Unvote, Vote Paws

Come and play. What are your thoughts on Hoop v Haylen? What's your opinion on policy lynching? Who's scummy to you?

She resorts to a policy vote, but qualifies the behaviour as something she dislikes doing, and would prefer not to do - but this vote lasts the entire day on Paws, which runs slightly contrary to Sotty's justification, as she never leaves this wagon for anything. It's perhaps a little brazen for scum, because I know she is a very adept scum player who must surely know this wouldn't look good if the Paws wagon went through.

I'm wary of DGB locking off the front half of the Paws wagon as non-important or non-scummy, especially since she is situated right in the middle of it. Such self-service doesn't surprise me, but it's particularly damning when you consider how much she was on Sotty yesterday, but seems to have forgotten that suspicion entirely. It was also particularly strange that she only voted once throughout the entire Day 1, and not until the end of page 9 to get on the Paws wagon. I'm making the call now - if there is more than one scum on the Paws wagon, it is Sotty and DGB together. Her vocal suspicion of Sotty is never backed up with a vote, despite being strong, which makes it look more like cheap distancing early whilst Sotty had little to no chance of coming into the limelight.

With how non-commital she is vote-wise, I could even see DGB as scum independent of Sotty's alignment. Her push of the Paws policy-wagon feels the worst, but mostly because she is trying to spin it as a town-driven wagon. This quote makes me pause;

Yeah but the wagon was scary fast. There may not be scum on it at all. In any event, off-wagon is the place to look for today.

I think DGB knows that fast wagons are fast because scum has their hand involved. Why would a town-driven wagon (on town) be faster than one with scum's help? When you consider towns to collaborate and compromise in their opinions, it makes no sense that town driven wagons run faster than scum driven wagons, and I think she knows this. It looks more like cheap justifcation to steer attention to the non-voters.

It brings me to the conclusion, that if DGB is scum, then there is 2 or 3 scum on the wagon. Because I'm finding her motivations very hazy,

CAMN

, I'd really like to contribute and share your thoughts on what I've posted on DGB. You can read her as good as anyone - does this play make sense for town DGB?

Continuing, camn's and Fenchurch's late influence on the Paws wagon is town, mostly because of reasoning DGB explained - scum have no reason to put themself in such a highly illuminated position - they have nothing at risk, so why push it? I'm also liking camn's start to Day 2 - her post on Snow_Bunny is solid.

Even though DGB is individually the scummiest character in the game, it still makes much more sense that there is multiple scum OFF the wagon, which supersedes behavioural tells in my eyes. The fact that DGB is espousing this point of view makes me wary, though.

[Hoopla]

OK cepi is town.

Even though two of her choices were on the Paws wagon?

[Hoopla]

I'd like to refer everyone to this Ojanen post:

http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 6#p2463356

Ojanen didn't get NK'd, so clearly, has some inaccurate scum/town reads, but she's a genius.

Why don't you consider the possibility that she's scum? She's off the D1 Paws wagon.

[Hoopla]

Why don't you consider the possibility that she's scum? She's off the D1 Paws wagon.

There is a lot of intelligence in her reads. Plus I'm not finished iso'ing players.

Yeah, but intelligence doesn't equate with alignment - I'd be very worried if you let Ojanen off the hook purely for intelligent reads, especially when she's in the pool of 6 players you're keen to lynch from. You've given your alignment assessments on other players without finishing your iso - make a decision on Ojanen.

[Hoopla]

Sotty (for tentative, scaredy-cat language), ODD scumreads,

and OFF the Paws wagon safely on a peripheral wagon that wasn't going anywhere.

Not really, though...

Come on DGB, I know you're better than this.

[Hoopla]

UK; thoughts on DGB and camn?

[Hoopla]

Ah, sorry,

Vote Sucrose

I should have done that in the last post.

Cut by Hoopla: DGB is interesting. Not entirely sure what to make of her. I rarely am. I'm not entirely sure I've often seen this barrage of "X is town" from DGB before whatsoever.

camn said some interesting things

that lead me to believe she's just irritating, not necessarily scum.

What sort of interesting things? She's been pretty spot on so far.

Oh, hey, also of note, she never did answer my riposte about how absolutely TERRIBLE her single game sample size was of the prevalence of angriness.

What's this about?

[Hoopla]

Sotty (for tentative, scaredy-cat language), ODD scumreads,

and OFF the Paws wagon safely on a peripheral wagon that wasn't going anywhere.

Not really, though...

Come on DGB, I know you're better than this.

I meant, OFF scumreads, not ODD scumreads.

I don't like your 'tude, Miss Hoopla.

No, I was talking about the bit I bolded. Sotty wasn't OFF the Paws wagon - she parked her vote ON her early and stayed there.

[Hoopla]

UK; thoughts on DGB and camn?

Why are you picking on Ojanen? Why are you picking on the bloodthirsty duo?

You're all alive. And I'm confused why you're giving Ojanen an out for no reason other than being smart. You were also saying that the scum is OFF the Paws wagon, but give town reads on cepi and chauchau (OFF it), and still don't vote there (!) having presumably narrowed it down to myself, Sucrose and Snow.

You're inconsistent, and you're not reading the game at all (as proved in my post 326) - and I don't think a town DGB would be so lazy, misinformed and apathetic like this.

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DrippingGoofball

I love you, but you're scum.

[Hoopla]

Furthermore, I'm not dogmatic. When I say that the scum is OFF the Paws wagon, that's a probabilistic statement, not a hard fact. It's very strange that you expect me to find all the OFF wagon players scummy. Why are you disputing my chauchau and cepi reads? Not all the off wagon players are scum. YOU ARE NOT READING THE GAME because I also said that if there is scum on the Paws wagon, that scum would be on the EARLY wagon, which includes Sotty and Apok, two of my scum reads. Snow_Bunny is one OFF the wagon.

Quite right - it is a probabilistic statement, and if you can narrow it down to say three players, doesn't that make those players look pretty good as scum probability-wise? I was probing there because you appear to have isolated a pretty good theory about scum being off the wagon, but then let it be trumped by something non-wagon related - whatever behavioural tell Apokalyptika oozes. This slightly clashes with your prediction that scum are off the wagon, and means one of them you musn't hold in high regard. There's a difference between inconsistency and a natural evolution of ideas and opinions, and your ideas look more inconsistent to me.

The thing with inconsistency, is it allows you to say one thing, then retroactively justify it as important or non-important - but with this approach, you can't also expect all of your ideas and beliefs to be taken seriously, because, well, how are we supposed to know how much relevance you put in one idea? Does this make sense to you?

I don't give a rat's tutu if my iso's aren't confirming my wagon analysis, that's an artefact of scumhunting. First I did the wagon analysis, and got a first idea. Then I did the isos, and got more ideas. These ideas can and do conflict.

That's fine - so which is more important? Do you believe the idea of scum being off the wagon? Or are your iso reads more relevent and worthwhile than your previous statement? Should I ignore your comment about scum being off the wagon?

Seriously, how are we supposed to know?

This is the problem with being inconsistent - if you don't update your opinions and say which is more important, it gives you a handy placeholder to resort back to if infact you do decide you want to start voting someone off the Paws wagon. You can't have both, because it just means you can do what you want and say what you want without having to face consequences.

[Hoopla]

Fenchurch - why aren't you voting? Do you have any leading suspects so far?

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Snow Bunny

I probably attacked DGB too harshly yesterday, and her response is the sort of thing I was looking - the sort of thing which has been noticably missing from her game. It also made me think what was more important to me today, too. Trying to lynch DGB who has been scummier than usual, or lynching someone off the Paws wagon, and I think this is where my vote belongs more, particularly since the Snow wagon has mysteriously vanished recently.

[Hoopla]

cepi is flat out lying about not being tajo, I could give proof. But he's lying town. I will leave this now.

HAHAHAHA

That actually makes sense when you think about it - I don't know what your proof is, but cepi, when said allowed and thought instead as 'CP' links quite handsomely with tajo's Anon account which happens to sport Pedobear as it's avatar.

[Hoopla]

Ojanen, can you explain your DGB town read? I find it quite bizarre you've put her right at the top of tree, when you've posted very little about her (and when my opinion differs heavily from yours).

[Hoopla]

I used those specific Hoopla games for analysis because the other, more recent ones were less similar to this game (had SKs, different mechanics, more unusual PRs, etc.) and I felt that I would get a clearer read with some more similar games.

The one town game you looked at was a 25 player Large Normal with an SK where I died on N1. The majority of games I play are Mini's as well, so it's not like you had to sift through a bunch of theme games and decide which were similar in set-up.

[Hoopla]

Im prob missing one scum in the side of the crafty ones but Ill leave the hard work after I get this flip.

Sometimes catching scum is easy when they all land on weak players - just like what happened in scummers mafia.

Haylen is far less scummy than Snow Bunny or Apokalyptika - though I'm a little confused how Apo's pulling ahead in the wagon race, when the justification for her votes is D1 information. It means her voters could have been on this wagon earlier, and are possibly doing so now because one of the rival wagons is scum (*cough*snow*cough*). Either that, or Apokalyptika is scum, and her buddies have decided to start bussing her now that she's come into the limelight, realising she'll be lynched some point soon and might as well get some town credit for it.

Snow Bunny's wagon has never really taken off, despite multiple signalling their intentions to lynch or at least suspect her. This is EXACTLY the sort of aura that hovers over scum - buddies leaving themself open to lynch, whilst never committing a vote to propel the wagon, and/or searching for rival wagons to push. Haylen's wagon feels week, and though the Apo wagon is justified and built on solid reasoning, it isn't as good as the Snow wagon. Plus, you've got the added bonus of her not being on the Paws wagon, which many agree is where the scum is.

I'm not calling for the collapse of the Apo wagon, but I'd like the Haylen voters to join the Snow Bunny wagon to compete with Apo. Today's lynch should be between these two.

[Hoopla]

PS. Hoopla. Are you scum this game? Cause every game i replace into, your scum. This is a most troubling re-occurance...

Hey snow, you'll be pleased to know this trend has snapped. Feel free to jump on the Snow Bunny or Apokalyptika wagons - they're both filling up fast.

[Hoopla]

Hm...actually, now that I've gone and written that out, Snow_Bunny really doesn't look too great.

Looks like Apok is greasing up the wheels in preparation for a vote switch - that's literally what this is, though. She thinks it will look bad if she bundles on to her main rival out of the blue, so she posts this as a way to soften the blow, as if this is a natural progression. This post shows she's worried about her appearance to the town, and is a meek way to open up an excuse to vote Snow Bunny if she needs it later.

I was curious to see who would be the first to show signs of 'her vs. me' - and with SB still plugging away at camn, it makes Apok look quite bad.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Apokalyptika

[Hoopla]

Yeah, I am still writing a massive case on camn. I saved it in my drafts section before I went to bed last night and I've been too busy today to finish it.

Keep it concise and just give us the good bits. Nobody will read an essay of ramblings if they aren't good.

[Hoopla]

UK needs a good wagoning tomorrow, too.

[Hoopla]

How come?

Because if she can get this riled up over one vote, I want to see her melt down when she gets ushered toward the noose.

[Hoopla]

I'll probably be gone until late tonight/tomorrow. Don't lynch me before then.

Ah, the old Haylen defense. Not executed quite as well as the original - I'm not feeling the passion at all really.

[Hoopla]

Pfft. She didn't even say she was writing a case >=( Learn from the master!

The master should also know that she needs to deliver on promises promptly after making them, otherwise she runs the risk of turning a pro-town appeal into a lazy, cheap and scummy way to deflate her wagon.

[Hoopla]

I wouldn't mind more people trying to separate the 'Dunno' section and build cases there - it's as if the town has locked into hivemind mode on those bottom two/three and everyone is just going with it. It means that scum has either started to bus quite heavily or they're sitting back laughing because nobody is in danger.

Camn - who's the scummiest in the middle tier of players?

[Hoopla]

Haven't read the camn case or thought too much about Apok's claim, as I'm only online quickly. but I'll support Ojanen's quickwagon plea.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: camn

[Hoopla]

This is such a bizarre passage of play - I don't think I've ever followed anyone based purely on their gut instinct, but Ojanen is so sincere and passionate about it, I feel like this is the right play. The vibe for me certainly hasn't be as strong (I'm sure in Ojanen's case it's more than a vibe, but I digress), but I haven't been feeling the camn power-townie that I've grown to know and love. The same applies to DGB and I'd give it good odds of one of them being scum this game, with a preference for DGB.

Apokalyptika, you think camn is scummy, please vote her.
I beg you.
Haylen is town.
Everyone else that has had votes today has had a serious conflict with camn at some point or other. Bussing exists but what I'm set out to ensure today is 1. camn's death, 2. none of SB/Haylen/Apok/UK getting lynched or killed. Bussing is absolutely not where you look first.

I'm skeptical that this point actually holds any weight - but I can't deny the passion. Lets finish this. Where's Sucrose? She'd be up for it.

[Hoopla]

I'm excited!

DGB has been eerily unnoticable around this wagon, when normally she'd be dominating the conversation. Fenchurch is solidifying her town credentials, though.

[Hoopla]

If Haylen isn't vig'ed, Apok is lynched. No questions asked.

Hell no. If camn flips scum, there is no way on earth Haylen should be vigged. We should be shooting someone off the Day 1 wagon - Sucrose if camn flips scum, and Snow_Bunny if she flips town. Haylen should only be considered if camn flips town, but even then Snow_Bunny should take precedence over Haylen.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: Apokalyptika

[Hoopla]

UNVOTE:

Damn, we have to think today.

[Hoopla]

VOTE: DrippingGoofball

[Hoopla]

Hi Hoopla. Do you know how to talk, or are vote tags suddenly the only language you speak?

Hmm...not sure what to make of Ojanen. Not sure if I want to make anything of her at this time, to be honest.

yes, but I'm drunk. ask me some questions.

[Hoopla]

question for everyone: DGB's cluelessness about the known set-up we're playing in - faked or realistic? i say fake.

[Hoopla]

It's not "WIFOM."

It's been mentioned earlier that the scum has daytalk, so that the "you think I'm a mason" bit sounds very much forced. I like to jokingly tell my suspects to go back and "check their QTs" personally, so I think the implication of a QT is NEVER, EVER related to masons, but 100% scum-talk.

In light of this, Haylen's comment is hugely weird.

this seems like a strange comment if dgb really didn't really read the opening post of this thread. although it acknowledges she heard of daytalk from someone else previously mentioning - it's strange to just rigidly believe that declaration, rather than have a look at the first post to confirm the fact.

[Hoopla]

thanks for posting those vote counts dgb, are you going to do something with them, though?

[Hoopla]

Also, RIP fenchurch.

[Hoopla]

i have loose theories revolving around the concept of to be able to catch scum, you need to put them in uncomfortable positions. anyone who has played more than a handful of games here knows this is familiar with the culture and the possible things that will incriminate them. creative or unorthodox plays by townies that can't be predicted by scum is what traps them, and milks information from a game - and although, there is a low ceiling on how creative you can get without being suspected or your play backfiring, or resulting in nothing, ojanen's play at it's core was a daring gamble that's benefits outweighed it's cost.

any scum can avoid lurking, omgus, overdefensiveness or whatever wikitell is in vogue - particularly amongst the caliber of this playerlist. with a lack of role information influencing the game, i deemed her aggressive call for a speedwagon a brilliant play to unnerve scum. even if it was on a townie, it would certainly make scum waver, contemplating their stance on the issue. i suspected ojanen might have similar philosophies about scumhunting to me in some ways, which is largely why i supported her cause.

i'm too unstable right now to consider much beyond the cosmetic, but looking at camn's wagon and all those green names on the wagon - it's really narrowed down to UK/SB on that wagon. i sincerely doubt that camn wagon could have been pushed without ANY scum on it, but the beauty is we've got so many names to cross off (or half cross off) there, it gives us good odds.

i really don't find ojanen suspicious at all. i see a lot of town motivation in her play yesterday - we just finish the scummies invitational together and absolutely dominated the scum there. i don't see her as scum this game. sorry for rambling everyone.

[Hoopla]

WOW, SORRY I'VE NOT BEEN HERE THE LAST TWO DAYS. I WENT ON AN IMPROMPTU ROADTRIP - FORGIVE ME. CATCHING UP NOW.

[Hoopla]

Appologies for my lack of input recently. I've been going over the thread to try and bring some unique thoughts to game. Here is what I think;

Final Day 1 Vote Count

Paws

(8) (Sotty7 - UncertainKitten -

Apokalyptika

-

Haylen

- DrippingGoofball -

esuriospiritus

-

camn

-

Fenchurch

)

camn

(1) (Snow_Bunny)

Apokalyptika

(1) (cepi)

Snow_Bunny

(1) (chauchaudotcom)

UncertainKitten

(1) (Sucrose)

Sucrose

(1) (Hoopla)

Not Voting

(2) (Ojanen -

Paws

)

I think it's worthwhile to note that the entirity of deaths this game have been

on

the Paws wagon, particularly when it was being speculated heavily that the Paws wagon (particularly the back-end) was largely town-based. These predictions are coming true, and I don't think it's a coincidence all the deaths have been amongst that group of players. It's very probable that more scum are

off

this wagon than on it, by sheer virtue of where the nightkills have gone. In the instance of two/three scum being off the Paws wagon, it would be entirely reckless to shoot off the wagon to narrow the pool there, when it was roundly believed scum were probably off the Paws wagon.

The fact we've lynched from the back-end of the Paws wagon on Day 2 doesn't feel like coincidence either, and looking through the thread today, I'm confused why it hasn't been talked about more. Most of us seem to believe Ojanen's intentions were pure, I know mine are pure, but is it reasonable to believe this was a scum-powered wagon?

Final Day 2 Vote Count

camn

(7) (

Haylen

- Ojanen - Hoopla - UncertainKitten - Snow_Bunny -

Fenchurch

-

Apokalyptika

)

Haylen

(2) (Sucrose - DrippingGoofball)

Snow_Bunny

(2) (Sotty7 - camn)

Apokalyptika

(1) (cepi)

Not Voting

(1) (Snow White)

Strangely, we still have a slew of confirmed townies amongst this wagon, which would inevitably narrow it down to a small pool of players if we're to believe this wagon was pushed/helped along by scum. This locks us into two modes of thought: The wagon is pushed entirely by townies, or at best one scum. OR, there are two (the chances of three are so slim) scum on there, and they're either unfamiliar with how bandwagon analysis might trap them, or they're prepared to take the chance if they know what sort of analysis might be used.

But if we're to believe two scum are on this wagon, we need to find suitable partnerships amongst this group of four players. Contrary to how DGB does analysis, I'll include myself in the analysis with my alignment up for debate - rather than force-feeding you dozens of posts with my name constantly in green. I hope those relying on their wagon analysis or those just using DGB's coloured vote-counts as a tool understand and ackowledge the entirity of her conclusions is based on her being town, which only she can know. Please come to your own conclusions.

Anyway, back to suitable partnerships amongst camn wagon;

Spoiler: The possible scumpairs on the camn wagon

Ojanen/Hoopla:

I think most of us have ruled out Ojanen as a suspect, which makes it difficult to believe her as a component of any scum pair. We have mutual town reads on each other, that is the closest to anything substancial here though, and I would think most would see this pairing as unlikely. For the sake of this experiment, I'll rule out Ojanen, mostly because her behavioural tells are solid enough to help me improve my process of elimination quite safely.

Snow_Bunny/UncertainKitten:

Possible, and I think most would agree - the likeliest combination of the four players that can be made. Have traded votes on each other during Day 2, and it's reasonable to interpret either of them as distancing, as it was largely during the midst of a powerful Apok wagon. Neither of the SB/UK votes could possibly be influential enough to bring either of them into the equation for lynch - it's a safe distancing technique, actually. You get points for distancing, being at each other's throats, but it comes at a time where there is a clear candidate for lynch, which minimises any risks of your votes drawing in more. Plus it keeps blood off both of your hands when the town lynch goes though.

Hoopla/UncertainKitten:

Not possible from my perspective, but I'll defend this pairing anyway to make this analysis more accessible to other townies reading on. UK was on the Paws wagon, the camn wagon and most other major wagons of the game. I've probably been the closest rival to her as far as 'votes thrown down' go, and have pursued multiple avenues in this game, and though we've never really suspected each other, we've both been largely active overall in the pursuit of pushing wagons and keeping the game moving forward. This is a wifom defense, but I don't think this matters - we're not really a believable scumpair.

Hoopla/UncertainKitten:

Again, not possible from my perspective, but I'll defend this pairing. I've been in favour of Snow_Bunny's lynch throughout the game, and though Snow's only come around to me recently, mutual bussing like this would be pretty reckless, and frankly, unbelievable. I nominated Snow_Bunny/Haylen to be vigged yesterday, which was roundly agreed with, and I think that is a decent point against a SB/Hoopla pairing.

Having taken those pairings into consideration, the question to ask now is this: Which is more likely? Any of those pairings, OR zero/one scum on the camn wagon?

I'm overwhelmingly coming to the conclusion that it's the latter, with a notable preference for one scum being on the camn wagon. My opinion is biased in the sense that I can rule out many pairings with myself and to a lesser extent Ojanen, but I've provided a report that I feel is fair to the townies that don't have the information I have. I think this, along with the Paws wagon is a very reasonable assumption, and I'm now going to break the players into groups;

OFF

the Paws and camn wagon:

cepi, Izzy, Snow White

OFF

the Paws,

ON

the camn wagon:

Hoopla, Snow_Bunny, Ojanen

ON

the Paws,

OFF

the camn wagon:

Sotty, DGB

ON

the Paws and camn wagon:

UncertainKitten, Apokalyptika

I think it's believable and very likely that both wagons DO NOT have two/three scum on them. I have a notable preference for one on each, though zero on a wagon is certainly possible and more likely that two. If my assumption about there being zero/one scum on both wagons, it means that at least one of the players OFF both wagons are scum. It also means UK is very likely to be town - the provisor is, if she is scum, then her buddies are in the top group, but again, I don't think UK-scum is likely.

The pool of one OFF and one ON is the other source for scum to be lingering, and if my assumption that there is one scum on both wagons, it must mean that there is one scum in the first three groups, unless UK is scum, which she probably isn't. So, from my perspective, the scumteam lies here;

One of

cepi, Izzy, Snow White

One of

Snow_Bunny, Ojanen, Hoopla

One of

Sotty, DGB

These are the pools of players I get purely from bandwagon analysis, and taking other behavioural tells in such as timing of votes and presence in the thread, I think we can narrow down the indivual groups even further to make accurate calls about which group gives us the best odds.

I suspect the first group is between Izzy and SW - most of have cepi as a town read. Reading him as tajo, he's been aggressive and is obviously the likeliest townie in that first group. It's possible we have two scum here if one of the lynch wagons has zero scum on it, but I don't think it's anywhere near as likely as one scum being on both wagons. Most of us at some point pinned chauchau down as town too, and though it was merely on behavioural terms, it's probably enough to compensate for Snow White's lacklustre display, which makes Izzy the favourite in this first group.

Her entry into the game has been subpar, coupled with the lurking Sucrose, it makes for a decent lynch. Sucrose was also accused for fluff posting even when she was around, and was picked up on for pushing a nonsensicle tell of the three most articulate players being scum. UK correctly refered to this as pulling three names out of a hat - it was completely arbitrary, and beyond that she had minimal presense at all which is another minor scumtell.

The second group is almost certainly where I'll be lynching from, and to be specific, Snow_Bunny. Myself and Ojanen are the only others here, and for Snow_Bunny not to be scum, then one of the following things must be wrong. Ojanen is scum (unlikely). There is zero scum on the camn wagon (unlikely) or UK is scum and her buddies are both in the first group (unlikely). There is also the possibility of two scum being on either wagon, but this is even more unlikely I feel, and if this is true, it still gives Snow_Bunny a shot of being scum.

The third group is where Sotty/DGB is, and the only way one of these two aren't scum is if there were no scum on the Paws wagon (less likely than 1) or UK is the scum on this wagon (also unlikely). We've all speculated that the back-end of the Paws wagon was town, and this has come into fruition, but I find it difficult to swallow that there was no scum on it at all. Before the Paws wagon started generating steam, it would have been seen as safe vote for scum, moreso than a wagon that would blossum so quickly and look bad to be seen on it. But of course, being a 'bad wagon' is seen as good, and though I think few scum would have anticipated the wifom circle back around to it's beginning, it wouldn't have been a disasterous move to be on the Paws wagon early.

Sotty's vote sticks out far more than DGB's, if only because it was made so early in the game, and is where it was nestled for the entirity of the day. That screams ultra-safe vote. DGB's situation is a little more unique, mostly because I haven't seen her play this way before - I suppose I'm boxing her in based more on behavioural tells. She's been less aggressive and voted sparingly, which exaggerates her decision to actively vote Paws - it's one of the more definitive positions she's taken in the game, with her now residing and relying on a vote analysis, one I admit, I don't understand. She gives arbitrary values to certain actions - I wouldn't mind if she succinctly summarized the logic she is using to come to her conclusions. It's very stream of thought. Anyway, of these two, I'm more inclinded to believe DGB is scum, only marginally - I'm struggling to pinpoint the town motivation for some of her actions.

~~

If you didn't want to read all of my logic that builds to that conclusion, I think the simplest way to summarise is that I'm quite confident there is one scum on each lynch wagon, meaning we can safely narrow the scum into four pools. My reasoning for believing

that

number of scum feels very solid, and the qualifier of there possibily being zero scum on a wagon isn't such a bad result as it still keeps UK psuedo-confirmed and keeps the make-up of scum in mostly the same area. But I don't think I'm wrong.

I'm largely in favour of lynching Snow_Bunny today. I probably won't consider moving my vote to anyone other than Izzy in group 1, or DGB in group 3. These feel like suboptimal choices for today though.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Snow_Bunny

[Hoopla]

We need some lady with cojones to move her vote to one of Hoopla, Sotty, or DizzyIzzy.

Why the hell are you campaigning for votes without actually putting one down yourself?

This is just another example of DGB not believing in what she says - really, it has been a shoddy imitation of her town game.

[Hoopla]

I'm voting DIzzyIzzy, you turkey

Oh sorry.

The last vote-count had you listed as not voting. Red has it fixed up now, though.

[Hoopla]

I tend not to think the claim is true, and Snow is just claiming to fish out the last powerroles for scum to pick them off later (it's the logical scumplay if you're going down). Though, as Ojanen says, it's a ridiculously simple claim to disprove, that it isn't worth lynching her for it when we have no players claiming contrary role information (ie; masons, nurse, jk/rb with other targets or another cop).

UNVOTE:

[Hoopla]

This'll get me some boos. But. I'll say at this point that, shock holler, I don't find it totally inconceivable that the whole camn wagon was town. IF SBs claim is true, it's in fact looking like that. Because Hoopla is such a strong townread and UK would have to be a GF.

Ultra

quick wagons (outside of lylo and a guilty result and so on) contain most likely town, VI scum who expect to get away with their meta and only quite-a-bit-bolder-than-average scum, and this must have looked like a really warty wagon.

No boos here - I'm starting to endorse this theory too. Of the two wagons on D1 and D2, camn's was the bigger/riskier assumption, because it had fewer suspects and I was banking on Snow_Bunny being scum. The facts are that if her claim holds it clears her and psuedo-clears UK, which is a massive swing in the make-up of that wagon, and puts scum squarely in the non-voters for that day. In my opinion, we need to be lynching someone OFF both the lynch wagons (cepi, Snow White, Izzy), or at worst someone OFF the camn wagon (DGB, Sotty).

The thing is, if all the scum is off the camn wagon, it almost certainly pins someone as scum in the cepi/SW/Izzy group, with a high likelihood of there being two in there. The only way this assumption fails is if there are two scum on the Paws wagon (DGB/Sotty/UK), which seems quite unlikely given UK is psuedo-cleared and DGB has been at Sotty's neck throughout the game. Of the off-both-wagons group Izzy is the clear candidate for scum. After replacing the habitually lurking Sucrose, she's done little to indicate she's interested in scumhunting, and when coupled with Sucrose's flimsy attempts, it's a slot that reeks of scum.

VOTE: DizzyIzzyB13

[Hoopla]

Hi Ojanen.

I am either vanilla, or a blocker targeting SB N1, or a jk targeting SB or DGB N1.

[Hoopla]

Oh joy, guarenteed scum today or tonight!

Izzy's probably the scum though. I REALLY want to see what DGB thinks given her flipflopping on SB.

[Hoopla]

Yes. Third power role, don't claim - we get scum guarenteed today or tonight. There's no need outing yourself for this one to prove Izzy or SB scum.

If SB is truthful, we don't get any more investigations from her role, regardless - she'll either be NK'd or jailkept. If Izzy is truthful, Apok vigs SB tonight.

[Hoopla]

...in fact, look at just how ridiculous DI's claim is. She's claiming that S_B went out on a limb, assumed there was a roleblocker or jailkeep in the game, and claimed no result when it would be a lot easier to say "town" for DGB. Further, we've found at least two "contradictions" that are strongly explained by cop SB. So DI waltzes in, with a wagon being run up on her. She's at L-3.

I have a thought exercise for you all. It seems likely you'll be lynched, or at least there's a decent chance of such. The closer you get to lynch, the less your claim will be believed. Now let's say you are scum in this situation. With everything as it has been in this game, what is the

best possible claim

you can make to cause chaos and out power roles, at a cost that was going to be incurred anyway?

Actually, couldn't it be said that Snow Bunny was in the same position as Izzy? If the optimum scum move nearing lynch is to claim a powerrole to out one in the game - then surely Snow's claim could be interpreted in such a manner. Claiming a 'no result' is an ideal way to out a role - it gives you either cop, or a jailkeeper/rb - though, then again, claiming a straight result gives a chance of survival. The only possible reason scum would prefer to out PR's over trying for one more day of survival is if they're worried about PR's and the potency of confirmed innocents (particularly the networking power some combinations have) late in the game. But there are few in this game who would be savvy enough to concoct something like this, I feel. In which case, there still lies less scum motivation in SB's claim.

[Hoopla]

Scum would have to be pretty stupid to think claiming Doctor would out the third powerrole though - because it doesn't. It just forces a today/tonight scenario between Izzy and SB. A better scumclaim would have been to claim the RB/JK that helps confirm SB, which forces the real one to come out. The only reason scum would make Izzy claim doctor (I fail to believe she did this on her own accord), was if they thought they could get SB-cop lynched today - but again, it would be dim or completely reckless to think the town would believe Izzy over SB.

If Izzy is scum, this partially clears Ojanen some more, I feel. As I doubt she would endorse such a foolhardy plan - if anything it sounds like a DGB-ringmaster gambit, particularly when you remember the lead up to this event. She sews the seeds of mistrust for SB's claim as recently as this page, but going back the last few, as if she's setting up for the big swap over to SB's wagon. This also fits nicely with my one of DGB/Sotty is scum theory;

UK - would you do me a favor?

Switch your vote to Sotty7.

vote: DizzyIzzy

We need some lady with cojones to move her vote to one of Hoopla, Sotty, or DizzyIzzy.

BTW I'm really loving Hoopla right now, so I've got DizzyIzzy & Sotty as main scum suspects. I'm feeling those two more strongly than Snow_Bunny.

This is DGB premptively bussing Izzy, including Sotty's name in for misdirection. This is an especially convincing theory in my mind, when you consider how easily she folds to get a claim from SB, after being so single-minded about Izzy/Sotty (and myself at times) for that day.

Ah, I think I'm getting ahead of myself though. Lets just get this first one down.

[Hoopla]

UK, If Izzy is scum, what does that make DGB?

If SB is scum, what does that make DGB?

[Hoopla]

HEY EVERYONE. NOT MUCH TIME. ON BREAK AT WORK. IN FAVOUR OF MASSCLAIM. SEE YOU TONIGHT.

[Hoopla]

WHAT THE HELL? STOP EVERYONE!

I

AM THE JAILKEEPER

Targets:

DGB N1
OJANEN N2
SB N3

I was reading along the last page in the thread, and I can't believe you all have fallen at Miyu's knees with that slow play. Did anyone think here that it was strange that Ojanen was the kill last night? It's because scum were fishing for the Jailkeeper, rather than taking a (probable) free kill on a powerrole - someone confirmed town. The only reason you'd kill a non-confirmed player over a confirmed player is if you're trying to kill the JK, or you're an idiot who doesn't understand that process of elimination will soon fuck you over.

Ok. Even if Hoops counterclaims Id believe Miyu more (way of claiming, emotional outburst, etc).

These sort of quotes make me feel sad, but if the town doesn't believe my claim and I am lynched instead, we

should

still win quite handsomely as Miyu can be vigged tonight with nothing to stop that. This point has been covered off already, but the beauty of this is that we lock myself or Miyu into today's lynch and tonight's NK which guarentees us scum. I'll do my best to convince you that Miyu is the liar, and I am the real Jailkeeper here, so I'll start with my targets;

On Night 1, I didn't have any particularly solid town reads, after Paws flipped town, but I wanted to utilise my action to give as much chance of stopping a kill either way (by protecting or blocking). I've been a Jailkeeper once before, and only got one use out of it before I was NK'ed (Mini 975) - I used it as a straight doc to protect camn that game as she was obviously town. This game gave me no such vibes, and realistically, I could see scum's NK targeting up to 6 or 7 different players. I had a slight scumread on DGB, which opened up the possibilities of her perhaps making the kill, but I also know she is a hot target regardless of how good or bad her Day 1 is for scum, as she is unpredictable and has the ability to turn it around rapidly. I deemed a JK on her the likeliest way to stop a kill, by either a block or a kill.

On Night 2, this choice was a lot more straighforward as Ojanen really started to look protown. I wasn't going for the longshot of blocking a kill, but more so a doctor protection to protect a strong town read. I think it was quite obvious to many people she was very town from that day onward.

On Night 3, I JK'ed Snow_Bunny for a logical reason. If she was going to be night-killed, that nets us no further investigations, and she really was the likeliest candidate to be killed that night. However, if I JK'ed her, then although it still gives us no further investigation, it also gives a real chance of stopping a kill, which gives the vig an extra shot before it drops to even numbers again. The only way Snow was going to get us another investigation was if the scum killed someone other than her, which seemed very unlikely at that point. It's also important to note, that scum wouldn't have known if town had a roleblocker or a jailkeeper at that point, which would have made Snow a much more attractive target that night. It turns out not Jailkeeping her was the right play, but I still thought the odds were way higher than 50% that that was where the scumkill was going.

---

Anyway, there is NO way Miyu is anything but scum right about now, so this is where my vote goes;

VOTE: Miyu

Appologies for my absence, I'll be making it up to you now, and not be letting this scumbag be taking advantage with her bogus claim.

[Hoopla]

I was about to say that I felt better about Hoopla, but then I went back and read. Hoopla's first post after the claim says that she tends not to believe it, while Miyu says she has no reason not to in one of her megaposts. Seems strange that Hoopla would actively say she didn't believe, given the knowledge she claims...

Hi Apok, here was my initial reaction to Izzy's claim yesterday;

Oh joy, guarenteed scum today or tonight!

Izzy's probably the scum though. I REALLY want to see what DGB thinks given her flipflopping on SB.

In this situation I knew Izzy's claim was bogus, but stopping and thinking, scum had little motivation to try such a gambit knowing someone could have easily counterclaimed sealing their fate. This made me believe scum were fishing for my role, and although I was early on the wagon, I was cautious not to telegraph my hand too much. I was aiming to get Izzy lynched, without giving the scum my role, which I think is quite evident in the way I played yesterday - I really never at all considered a vote for Snow.

I am absolutely DAZZLED that Miyu is trying to extract town credit for her reaction to Izzy's claim, when she didn't post until AFTER Izzy was hammered. Granted, she was likely under the impression that she was the hammer-vote, as DGB forgot to unvote when changing her vote elsewhere, meaning it still counted on the Izzy-wagon, but the fact is, everyone besides Ojanen posted in between when Izzy claimed and Miyu's first reaction. I fail to believe that anyone else in her situation wouldn't bus Izzy when she is at L-1 (or already lynched) - she has no other options than to bus.

On the contrary with my reaction to Izzy's claim, I was actively pushing her wagon before her lynch was guarenteed, which if you're going to count that passage of play for anything, it is I who deserves more town credit, because I actually

had

the option to push alternate theories, but didn't. But then, if I was just going to bus from the outset, pushing Izzy's wagon, why would a hypo-Hoopla-Izzy decide to make her claim doctor? I know I'm appealing to meta, but I am not that dim to make my scum-partner claim something that nets ZERO scum advantage. I've done my fair share of coaching - in Mini 932 my only partner was rung up to claim on Day 1, and I coached him into claiming Gunsmith, which lasted him until lylo. I have other similar examples of my scumplay, which showcases my ability to create long-term plans as scum - I fail to see how the town could genuinely believe

that

was a Hoopla-endorsed plan. If anything (although I don't think she is dim), Miyu was far more disconnected from the game, in conjunction with Izzy - it's

more

plausible that they didn't consider the full ramifications of what Izzy was claiming.

Also, if you don't believe my claim. THen why do you think I believed SB from the getgo of her claim? Why do you think I never believed DI's claim?

Again, believing Izzy's claim is irrelevant, because you were the last to do so, and it happened after she was hammered.

[Hoopla]

Night 1. Chau chose DGB, for reasons I have no idea.
Night 2. SnowWhite did not use the role.
Night 3. I chose SB, because it is better to have a confirmed townie alive, than take a gamble trying to block a scum's kill. Granted the large con of blocking her role as well. But I figured that it would be better to have more confirmeds around, than a dead cop.

Convenient answers to the targets question - can you tell me why you didn't claim targets with your claim initially? It looks like the build-up to your claim is fishing for reactions on how widely believed you'd expect to be if you were to infact claim, which helps you decision to make the plunge or not. Your Snow block sheeps my logic, and again, doesn't improve the scummy slow-play of your fakeclaim.

A question for everyone:

What is it about Miyu slow-playing/soft-claiming throughout today that you believe?

[Hoopla]

I highly doubt any one will be vigged toNight. If this village decides you believe your fake claim over mine, then this village is lost, and just throwing away a good standing at this point. If you manage to get me lynched. I will flip JailKeeper, and you will probably kill Apok - so she can't vigi you. Gets rid of two confirmed's right there. Then toMorrow, the town should lynch you. But no telling really for certain.

Of course someone will be vigged tonight. There is no we're lynching anyone other than you or I, and if the town picks wrong, then the vig killing you tonight is GUARENTEED.

Scum and vig kills resolve simultaneously

, so even if scum were to target Apok tonight, she'd still get a shot out if need be. Woops, there goes your scumplan!

Unless hell decides to freeze over right now, there is NO CHANCE you are JailKeeper.

Someone please tell me this wording looks strange to you. I think my main problem with it is that she states there is no chance I'm the jailkeeper, rather than make the direct correlation that I am scum. This shows her motives are subconciously more grounded in making me look like an unlikely jailkeeper, rather than scum. Although there is a direct link between the two, doesn't it seem bizarre to state the other person has no chance of being the jailkeeper, when this is of course is your role? It's redundant, but almost as if she doesn't know it is, as if she needs to enforce the chance of me being truthful doesn't exist.

Of course in

her

situation, she is to

know

she is truthful, but it's a very forced mode of response. I think this stems from the tendancy that liars tend to overcompensate when they know they're lying. You're more focused on convincing others you're truthful, than actually just being truthful - and this is what this reads like. Someone from a neutral perspective weigh in on this please.

[Hoopla]

Hows about you reply to my point about you not posting a reaction to Izzy's claim until she was hammered? That observation about your wording was a minor point - respond to the big ones, rather than just trying to discredit me based on my smallest point.

[Hoopla]

I honestly skimmed over your post Hoopla. None of it means anything to me, if it is about your claim. Because your claim is false. Please enlighten me as to how you talking a bunch of lies, is somehow beneficial to me - when I know the truth.

Because when I say the exact same thing, it eventually boils down to cheap mudslinging, in a petty feud of NO-U-type attacks, which doesn't help at all from the town's perspective. Maybe I'm biased, because I've been conditioned to argue from a neutral point of view, but I hate it when people think they can get away with crap like this. From

your

perspective, you have ~tRutH~ on your side, but that means fuck all if you can't convince the town, and I think we'll be both better off putting forward viable points against each other or for ourselves, because that actually means something to the town (and because I know mine are better). Your tactic to resort to this manner of arguing means you have little substance to back up your claim, because if you were the real jailkeeper, you wouldn't hesitate you show your thinking or find faults in my claim, rather than revert to emotion-based hyperbole.

[Hoopla]

My statements are true Hoopla. I do have truth on my side. True statement. I don't need a bunch of convoluted walls of text to express the pure and simple statement of : I am the JailKeeper. Whereas you, who is scum; needs that wall of convoluted mess - to try and lose the other villagers in, so they will be confused and think you are the JK; when you are not. This is not some nonsense that I make up, or mudslinging.

Nice to know you are the GF for certain, UK.

No, my statements are true, Miyu. I have truth on my side. True statement. I don't need to resort to empty, bottomless rhetoric that proves nothing to express the pure and simple statement of: I am the Jailkeeper. Whereas you, who is scum; needs to be able to get away with not proving or explaining her motives to neutral spectators, to escape from the reality that your actions incriminate you, so the town doesn't consider the facts, and falls for your cheap appeal to emotion. This is not some nonsense that I make up, or mudslinging.

.
.
.
.
.
..
...
...
.....

See how useless and circular this becomes if both players employ this tactic?

Nice to know you're scum, Miyu.

Or do you have more than rhetoric, at this point?

Miyu is either lazy scum that knows she's trapped and is trying to drag the argument down to a battle of emotions rather than gameplay, or she's scum with a conscience. Sometimes it's hard making up cases to explain your actions and disprove your opponent.

[Hoopla]

Where the fuck is cepi? Don't tell me he's the GF lurking, waiting to decide to bus or save Miyu.

[Hoopla]

Goddamn, this game is really grinding to a halt. Cepi needs to post SOMETHING soon, or replace out, because he is sucking a lot of the life out the game. Sotty and Apok need to pledge their allegiances, and Miyu can continue on doing what she's doing, because as far I'm concerned, I'll take the guarenteed win now so we don't have to put up with shenanigans tomorrow.

[Hoopla]

I tend not to think the claim is true, and Snow is just claiming to fish out the last powerroles for scum to pick them off later (it's the logical scumplay if you're going down). Though, as Ojanen says, it's a ridiculously simple claim to disprove, that it isn't worth lynching her for it when we have no players claiming contrary role information (ie; masons, nurse, jk/rb with other targets or another cop).

UNVOTE:

Hoopz, why did you think Snow was lying with her claim?

Of course I didn't think Snow was lying with her claim, contrary to what that passage says. In my situation

I knew

Snow_Bunny was telling the truth and was quite certain that her wagon would fall away (hence why I also unvoted her in the same post), meaning I wouldn't

need

to claim to confirm her as town, as outing myself then would suboptimal play. Anyone who has played more than 5 games knows it's a newb-PR play to telegraph your role unnecessarily, and this is EXACTLY what this situation was. From a scum perspective, they knew that Snow was truthful, which also meant they knew a roleblocker/jailkeeper existed. I didn't want to make it obvious I was the Jailkeeper, but also, I

absolutely

made sure that Snow would not be considered for the lynch, which reading my follow-up posts, not just that first one, makes clear;

This'll get me some boos. But. I'll say at this point that, shock holler, I don't find it totally inconceivable that the whole camn wagon was town. IF SBs claim is true, it's in fact looking like that. Because Hoopla is such a strong townread and UK would have to be a GF.

Ultra

quick wagons (outside of lylo and a guilty result and so on) contain most likely town, VI scum who expect to get away with their meta and only quite-a-bit-bolder-than-average scum, and this must have looked like a really warty wagon.

No boos here - I'm starting to endorse this theory too.

<snip>...

VOTE: DizzyIzzyB13

Then after I get on the Izzy wagon, she claims Doctor, to which I respond;

Oh joy, guarenteed scum today or tonight!

Izzy's probably the scum though. I REALLY want to see what DGB thinks given her flipflopping on SB.

Keeping my vote on Izzy, whilst also...

Yes. Third power role, don't claim - we get scum guarenteed today or tonight. There's no need outing yourself for this one to prove Izzy or SB scum.

If SB is truthful, we don't get any more investigations from her role, regardless - she'll either be NK'd or jailkept. If Izzy is truthful, Apok vigs SB tonight.

...pushing her wagon. I also left a small breadcrumb on what I was going to do that night with my role.

The question that everyone needs to answer is this;

If I'm scum with Izzy, what is my motivation to bus her, then make her claim doctor, or at least endorse a plan for her to claim doctor in the QT, only to bus her again and make sure the last PR doesn't claim? What does that get us as scum? Wouldn't me-scum at least try to get the Jailkeeper to claim or give a chance at a Snow-mislynch? There is ZERO gain for a Hoopla/Izzy scumteam in this scenario - I didn't give her a chance of being town, because

I

am the third powerrole, not because I'm scum trying to pull an elaborate bus for NO GAIN.

[Hoopla]

Huh...actually, Miyu's last post makes me feel a lot better about her. I didn't catch it earlier, but I actually had the same question about shots a couple (game) days ago, and I couldn't find the answer in the rules. I sent a PM to Red and he said that both shots do resolve simultaneously, but the fact that Hoopla knows this and Miyu evidently doesn't is...distressing. Combined with her other points, I'm actually feeling a drastic change in outlook here. I should reread, I think.

What the hell? Are you seriously using this as a point against me? Anyone that has played more than one game with a vigilante or Serial Killer, or even multiple scum teams knows that kills always resolve simultaneously. When have you ever seen a vig's shot not go through because the mafia killed it first? In my 40 or so games I've played, plus twice as many I've read or skimmed, I've NEVER seen kills

not

resolve simultaneously. Come on, this is just common sense.

[Hoopla]

Also, Hoopla, I had one tiny insignificant suspicion of you that it would seem frivolous to even bring up, but:

Also, RIP fenchurch.

The fact that you didn't mention Haylen nagged in the back of my head for a while. Was this a scumslip, or was I overanalyzing as I usually do?

You're overanalyzing - the reason I said this is because i like Fenchurch.