Mini 1036 - DEFCON Mafia - Over

[Percy]

Hi everyone, especially those I've played with before.

Also anyone who actually -hasn't- played this game:
I hate you and you should go die and not waste a player slot..

I don't mind you hating me, but I'm not backing out of this game
Wait, it's $10? Sure, why not.

Hi doombunny! I'm cool with your FoS, btw. That game was super hard, by the end I was FoSing myself...

And just to be clear: If you're going to nuke someone, you'd better be sure. Launching isn't evidence that supports you being NATO, it's evidence supporting you wanting everyone to die. 8:3:1 is tough enough without townies nuking each other...

[Percy]

@Enigma:

Represent!
It's true that the investigative abilities are important, but I think some uncertainty is a good thing too. If all townies pick Espionage, then scum automatically get their first pick of anything that's not Espionage. Like, say, a nuclear sub. I suggest people pick towards their playstyle and we leave it at that.
Also, as for the nukes, it is superficially a bad idea for scum to nuke town, as they will probably end up dying, and one-for-one trades are bad for scum. I can imagine scum using this WIFOM to try and save themselves...

[Percy]

Hater's gotta hate.

There's more than one hater out there, man.

12 players, 10 abilities, some of them completely useless to town/scum/both.

What abilities do you think are useless to

both

? Most can get town info or foil scum plans in some way.

Sent in my preferences.

[Percy]

@Enigma

: I certainly agree that some abilities are more potentially useful than others, but I'd take any of the three you listed before a missile silo...

As for "you are engaging in pointless discussion therefore you are scum" line of reasoning, it's crap. Most games I've been a part of start with an RVS to generate some suspicion worth pursuing. General mechanics discussion is taking the place of the RVS in this game, for obvious reasons - we have to talk about something, and there's not much else to talk about. I think we've been good at being careful not to give scum insight into our choices, and now based off that discussion, people are forming preliminary reads and suspicions that they want to follow up. But to turn around and say that the entire discussion was pointless and anyone who engaged in it is automatically scummy is illogical and simplistic.

Doombunny's encouragement to start scumhunting is good, but his conclusion is , I've got a town read on Enigma atm.

If talking about pointless topics encourages people to begin scumhunting then by all means I am wrong. Unfortunately for you, it doesn't.

And most people in normal games vote based on who has the cutest Avatar or who was scum in another game. Pointless shit, until it isn't anymore.

Also, I wasn't ever discussing mechanics to try and help me make up my mind about my choices - I made up my list when I confirmed.

Right now my (mild) pings are from Escoulta, Zhero and Hinduragi. I imagine the scum are talking a lot right now in their QTs to skirt around Espionage and try to balance their preference lists, so lurking and/or posting-for-the-sake-of-posting are mild scumtells for me, and they seem to fit the bill. Faraday almost does, but something about his attitude rubs me in my town places.

[Percy]

I agree with ... Percy's points on lurkers.

I was calling you scum there, guy - calling you out on spending lots of time in your QT and not much in this thread, coming in only to make a few platitudes based on a skim read before getting back to making seekrit codes and plotting with your Warsaw buddies.......

[Percy]

Hello everyone, I'm back and reading NAO

[Percy]

Firstly, no sub for me.

@Faraday

: I was talking to Doombunny and Hinduragi, but Doombunny (and by extension Hinduragi, maybe) say that the point was more about

only

doing pointless discussion. Urgh, whatever, I still think it's crap and the distinction is useless.

There's no codes and buddies here but I agree with your logic.

*skin crawls*

@Andrius : I'll nuke people if i want >.>

Good to know.

VOTE: Elscouta, for this, his pre-DEFCON 3 play, and his reaction to Faraday. Especially this:

Claiming someone is town without explanation : a

classic

scum move

this is

not well known

has a scumtell, so scum usually don't try to avoid this.

Inaccurately calling on meta-authority to back up a shitty point, also backpedalling. I'd go so far as to say this backpedalling is

classic

!

Also,

Looks like i'm supposed to say something >.>

This bothers me too.

Elscouta is #1 by a long way.

The indirect defense of Faraday by Hinduragi is noted.

Calling you on your crap logic = defending me. lolk.

Something interesting is going on here. I'm going to let this sit in my brain for a day or so.

@Andrius

: You just discovered eavesdropper? As in, you read the ability the day after your preferences were due?

Enigma's point against Doombunny is backwards, or at best WIFOM. Scum are perhaps more likely to have read the rules in depth than town, and to have had their errors in understanding corrected by scumbuddies in their QT...
Still, I continue to get town vibes from Enigma. It's a gut read based off nothing more than tone, but it's there.

If the scum have the sub, then when claimtime comes, anyone with Fighter has a chance of catching the liar (as the natural fakeclaim for the person with the sub is a missile silo), so perhaps it's not so useless after all

[Percy]

So now Elscouta is arguing that "classic" and "not well known" can be the same thing to defend himself against the backpedalling/inconsistency/meta-abuse charge. Did I fall down the rabbit hole and not notice?
He seemed to be backing down from the point:

Anyway, I want to say now that i'm voting Faraday for a lot more than just his "blah is town". His defense based on "everything you say is crap, go away" is not suiting me at all.

"It's not what I said before, it's that he's being

mean to me

".
Hhis defence against my attacks involves supporting the utility of the tell. Either it's good or it isn't, and this seems like a half-hearted attempt to deflect attention from it.

The move is classic, but it's not well known as a tell. Look, there is even people arguing it's not...

:blinks: Oh wow, are you serious?
The fact that people think the tell is bullshit is evidence that it's classic?!
Give me a link to where you've seen this tell used to catch scum, plzkthx.

---

On the "is knowing the rules possible evidence you're scum" - I think I know the rules back to front, but that's because I'm anal like that. Errors in understanding are regrettable, but entirely possible from scum or town. I think ignorance is a really bad towntell, now that I've thought about it some more....

Something about the Zhero/Enigma interaction is bothering me. Check out Zhero's ISO - the person he talks to the most, and is voting for, is Enigma, but it doesn't seem like a scumhunting effort; lots of clarification and agreement... Zhero's currently my #2.

[Percy]

Hey guys, it's late and I have to go to bed, but please don't lynch anyone until I get the chance to post properly, kthx.

[Percy]

A link to the unsourced opinion of some dude is not evidence for anything. I think the tell is worthless. I've seen a lot of townies say "X is town". Sometimes they're right. Sometimes calls like that make scum angry.
I don't think Elscouta is playing scumtell bingo here, though. I think he thought it was an "obvious" move for scum, and maintained this thesis despite there being no evidence.
"Evidence is not important. What's important is that Faraday was scummy for doing it."
But his pursuit of Faraday has been half-hearted

at best

. It really doesn't feel genuine to me. Now he's voting Hinduragi by pointing to Hinduragi calling

Faraday

town! It's just a mess of confused reads.
I think Elscouta is scum, scum, scum.

I'm a bit weirded out by Enigma saying "STOP BREADCRUMBING" and following it up with "I noticed that he was breadcrumbing do you all agree that he was breadcrumbing". Getting angry at people being anti-town to build your own credibility is one of my favourite scum moves...

I stand by my read of Zhero. He's been coasting all game, and I think it's very scummy.

MURDER DEATH SPREE

You're starting to worry me, dude...

RedCoyote, your catchup post was excellent. Hammer away.

[Percy]

Re: Enigma,

A few things I didn't get to say before the thread was closed.
-Fantastic catchup post.
-I think day phase ended a bit early. Town could have benefited a bit more from the serious discussion of Defcon 3. Don't like the people who advocated the lynch either.

RedCoyote, your catchup post was excellent. Hammer away.

^Don't like this at all.

Wait, what? You can like it, but I can't?

I went back and looked at what he said when Elscouta was at L-1. Found nothing to do with the wagon. Went further back to find out what he'd said to Elscouta, and found this, which defends Elscouta. (Preview edit: looks like Enigma found it too...)

Hmmm. The case has been picked up by Zhero. I haven't forgotten about your D1 play, Zhero. Hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmurpa derp I don't know. Yet.
Enigma is cranky, but I continue to suspect there's a heart of townie gold in there. I don't think there's enough here to push him into the "Likely Scum" column.

-

Re: Andrius, I like AV's read. There is a scummy insistence to his breadcrumbing. I don't really know what he should do know.

Re: Doombunny9, the "contribute something or GTFO" line from today's vote on Socio seems like a retreat from yesterday. Feels like the scummy kind of lurker hunting.
I'd guess he's worried about being called on OMGUS and wants the Socio wagon to happen magically around him. Smells like scum to me. VOTE: Doombunny9!

[Percy]

Wheeee drunkposting

On the sub claim: Look, we seem to be pretty sure the scum have the sub, but most of the townies have no reason to be certain. There are, as I see it, two options:
(1) We do a massclaim of preference lists, along with a massclaim of abilities. And we do it

today

.
(2) We don't massclaim until endgame.

It's the preference lists that will be monstrously hard to fake. If we do it popcorn style and scum are forced to put their preference list down first, then any lie they make will almost certainly be detected soon after. That means scum will probably tell the truth, and so we'll find out who has the sub. Then what, we lynch him for a liar? Interrogate people on their choices?

I don't think the benefits of any claim plan are a good idea right now. The info gain for town is potentially good but probably dubious and packed with WIFOM, but the scum will end up knowing exactly who has what. I can see why it would be tempting to know where the sub is, and why a claim might sound like a good idea, so trying to make discussion around this issue sound scummy is also underhanded. Let's just fucking stop talking about it, that would be awesome.

No claims or crumbs or any setup anything at all until later, guys, for real

---

Great, so, Andrius+tag team partner VasudeVa:

It would all have been avoided if Enigma wasn't an idiot and just shut fuck up when he saw the breadcrumbs(LIKE EVERYONE SHOULD.)

This is probably good advice, in general. I called Enigma out for similar play earlier in the game. But in this instance I can see it from Engima's perspective too. Andrius put a "I have an

objective

reason for voting this way" spin on his vote, and Enigma wanted to know what was going on, then Andrius got really cryptic.

(Hi VV btw)

He started this mess the moment he got the urge to expose me based on his investigation. And now I have to clean up the crap he started.
...
Why would you force a PR whose alignment could very well be town to reveal himself?

I don't know about that, Enigma. Nobody was

forcing

you to claim. If you felt forced, then you shouldn't have.

I'm left feeling that Enigma gets the better of the exchange, but I'm pretty sure they're both town. I was interested in reading SpyreX's account, but I left without a read on it either way.

Now, I'm up to Enigma's complete overreaction and subsequent vote on Zhero for rolefishing, of all things. Oh god. This sloppy mess. This is a goddamned

sloppy uninteresting mess

, and I'm sick of reading about it.

---

OK, so, Hinduragi. He and Sociopath are coasting, and Hinduragi's looking not so good in my PoE chart. But of both of them, I actually kinda like Sociopath's point against Hinduragi.

@RedCoyote

: What's your read on the Hinduragi slot?

---

But still, that only increases my scumread of Doombunny. There's a point to be had in Socio's post, but Doombunny just says of it:

... a worthwhile post albeit the reasoning was weak.

What does that even mean? It reads to me like "it has content but I'm going to disregard that because I'm painting a picture where Socio is contentless scum".
In terms of pressuring lurkers for coasting, Doombunny's done so inconsistently (i.e. only on Sociopath) and when he posts, he doesn't seem to pay attention to what he posts. And after all that DEFCON4 talk of "meaningful vs meaningless conversations". His posts today are pretty content light.

I don't like lurkerhunting at the best of times, but there's a seriously scummy way to do it, and Doombunny's case feels like scum going after a mislynch.

Also, my calling Doombunny's vote OMGUS was an absolute joke. If anyone can be accused of OMGUS, it's Sociopath. But his reaction was much more defensive than I expected.

---

Where's Faraday?

[Percy]

OK, already explained why that's a bad idea.

Besides, if the scum have the preference lists, they'll know who has the abilities they want to remove, or at least can make a shortlist. What does it give us, beyond hypothetical lie-catching later?

The reason we claim today rather than later is that preference lists makes lying harder. With probably at least two players dead before tomorrow starts (and so we have no way of knowing their preference lists), there is wiggle room, and lie-catching becomes less likely. But still, it would be better if we all just shut the fuck up about setup speculation, crumbs and claims. There's plenty of interesting interaction going on, and the town needs to dig in to that now to look for scum - not rely on logic puzzles later.

[Percy]

Sorry guys, posting will occur within 24 hours.

[Percy]

Re: Doombunny

- My central charge was that Sociopath seemed like a push for a mislynch of a lurker. A key part of that is inconsistency in lurker-hunting. The idea that SocioPath is "scummy in his lurkerness" and Hinduragi is (presumably) "townie in his lurkerness" needs to be explored, imo. But check out his attitude to Hindu:

Meh, neutral reads mostly. He's never really said anything that stuck out to me that was either townie or scummy if anything I'd say he's scum because he may just be trying to stay under the radar and for lurking but its not really all that much to go on.

Now read it again and pretend he's talking about Sociopath. Why does Sociopath get the attention, but Hindu doesn't?

Doombunny still reads scum to me. His recent unvote, testing the waters for a Calcifer lynch rubs me the wrong way too.

---

I asked RedCoyote what his scumread of Hinduragi was, and he ended up voting for Hindu. He noted his D1 read as follows:

[

Town

]------AV-Percy--Faraday-Hindu--Enigma--Andrius-[∙]-Doombunny-Spyrex--SP-Zhero----Elscouta------[

Scum

]

I searched the entire post for a reason why RedCoyote thought Hindu had a "strong first day", but I couldn't find it. I thought, at the time, that his read on Hinduragi was very generous. Now, there's this complete change in read.

Essentially, it seems like it boils down to a lurker vote on a person Red used to have a townread of. This vote sticks out as very scummy to me. He didn't comment on Doombunny after my post, but he did comment on AV's case:

Also I think your Doombunny case has merit

...so why is he voting Hinduragi again?

His dancing around the WIFOM issue regarding the dropped message doesn't make me feel better, either.

---

The Zhero message is almost certainly intended to be seen by the town. Beyond that, we can conclude nothing about Zhero's alignment directly. But why would the scum want to suggest that Zhero is scum? Blergh, I don't know.

---

So it looks like there are some players who are unwilling to move on from Calcifer's softclaim and want him to claim to clear things up. I don't think the town will gain

any

useful information with regards to alignment from this discussion, but it will let the scum know who has what ability. I do not think SpyreX's case has much merit, and it reads to me like an excuse to fish for role info while maintaining the Townie High Ground.

This drama has taken most of the town's attention for most of the day, and we've learnt nothing useful. If you claim, Calcifer, then make sure it's in the town's best interests.

---

I think the scum are in {Doombunny9, SpyreX, Faraday, RedCoyote, Sociopath}. SocioPath-scum doesn't make sense to me, but he could be the SK.

[Percy]

@RedCoyote

: Here's my summation of what you said about Hinduragi in that post:
-You agreed with him that not reading the thread is a nulltell,
-You called him on misreading Enigma's sarcasm,
-You don't like Sociopath's vote on Hindu,
-He is fourth on your townlist.

Now I have read your notes, and you've gone back and explained how you arrived at your townread by making parallels with other stuff you said, but my original point still stands - your original read on Hindu seemed to come out of the blue.

But now this makes your vote on him doubly puzzling. Sure he hasn't been posting much, and it was a case of "Sure, I've got a free vote, whatever". It's like you didn't have any opinions on Hindu at all.

Also, as I pointed out, there were cases floating about. Why was Doombunny on the backburner and not Hindu, or anyone else? You seem to be the player who, like me, likes to put a lot of thought into his voting, but this Hindu business rubs me the wrong way. And this is not the first time Doombunny has been out of your notice, you did leave him off your first scumscale...

I can't put it better than Hinduragi already did:

Pray tell, what did Doombunny do that gives him the pleasure of being on your backburner?

Hmmmmmmm.

And, my reaction was different to yours, wrt the dropped message. I'm looking for scum motivation; you were looking for a reaction from Zhero.

@SpyreX

: The problem I have is that you're painting this mess as a failed scum gambit, and that Calc needs to claim to clear it up. It's clear that the Calc hydra view the move as a mistake, and I don't see how knowing the details will help the town conclude anything about their alignment. I'm not convinced it's a scum gambit, but I'm not convinced the other way either. The best way to clear this up is to talk about

other things

, rather than treading over the same ground.

... I don't know why [Percy] doesn't think Socio can be scum? Any reason apart from the message thing?

Because I believe Doombunny is scum, maybe with RedCoyote, and I don't think Doombunny was/is bussing Sociopath. That crosses SocioPath off the "Warsaw Pact" list, but doesn't clear him from being the SK.

Now Doombunny is getting really condescending, saying the problem is with my interpretation and there is a little bit of "you are scum for voting me" tone creeping into this post, and I'm not a fan. Where did I get the idea you're voting Socio for lurking? Oh yeah, when you say things like this in the post where you vote for him:

Hey Socio... You going to you know? Actually contribute something? Out of ten posts (Whereas most people have over double that and the only people with less posts are Percy and Spyre (Not counting Papa since he dropped off the face of the Earth)) only one was actually good (good defined as participating in discussion etc. etc.): #5. The rest just mainly being fluff. Also, out of the 3 posts he made in Defcon 3, two vere votes/votechanges with nothing more than a 3 or 4 word explanation (If I even want to call it that). Finally, he kept his RV on Spyre for an exceedingly long amount of time. guys, I think we have a scum here.

If that's not a "You are scum because you are a lurker" case, then I don't know what is. Quibble over definitions if you like, but you made the determination that Socio was the lurkiest of the lurkers, and he was scummy in his lurking.

But, you've been inconsistent in your lurkerhunting, as I've pointed out, which is how I sort the town lurkerhunters from the scum lurkerhunters.

Your unvote to test the waters of a Calcifer lynch, then putting it

back on Sociopath

when SpyreX starts to get votes is awesome. The unvote shows just how little you actually believe in your Socio vote, also how you're opportunist scum, and revoting Sociopath is the move of a cowardly toothless paper baby tiger.

[Percy]

AV's post is some :goodposting:, goddamn.

They're talking about results. There is some ambiguity left; Enigma has not revealed who he targeted, and Calcifer has not confirmed that this is information is the same information he's got on Enigma, if I'm following correctly.

I didn't see the argument clearly from SpyreX's original case. My desire to not

talk

about the setup meant I myself tried not to

think

about it, which was a dumb move. The original case is more subtle than it was in my mind.

How I read it now: Perhaps there's something else at work. It was as SpyreX said, a botched attempt to claim a cop guilty, and Calcifer doesn't know who Enigma targeted, so if he claims radar and his target doesn't match up with Enigma's, he's lynched scum. If he claims espionage and gets CC'd, then he's dead. Thus the "rolefishing" argument is a nice neutral position to take against others' attempts to call you on your botchjob. He said at one point something about how it's based off the flavourtext?

Role related information. *whistles*

Disclaimer: I pursued Enigma out of gut and me not seeing Rule #15. So yeah.

Unvote

This is some goddamned bullshit. You can't softclaim like that. You can't expect something like this to not affect people's reads. That's why you said it in the first place. If you want it to influence people's reads on Enigma,

you have to say why

. Now you're saying they never insinuated that he's scum?

Nope. Not even allowed.

I am officially interested in Calcifer claiming ASAP. It's a complete 180, but it's the right one to make. Sorry, SpyreX.

I will hammer Calcifer if he's put to L-1 and continues to refuse to claim.

I'm still pretty sure Doombunny9 is scum. He remains my strongest scumread, and so my vote is going to stay on his puny wagon. I think my case stands on its own merits.

[Percy]

EBWOP:

Now you're saying they never insinuated that he's scum?

they -> you.

Hydras are confusing.

[Percy]

(1)

If this was a screwup simply acknowledging it and coming clean is a much better move.

This. If it is a mistake, then it's a regrettable one, but it needs to be cleared up just the same. The fact that you do this often does not change that it needs to be put right.

(2)

I already said I would prefer if my target wasn't revealed because it gives the scum an even greater likelihood that they will correctly guess my ability.

They know you have an ability that targets a player. You said as much. How does Calcifer claiming their ability (

even if

they claim radar and correctly identify your target!) lead to the scum being more able to guess your ability? That makes NO SENSE.

(3)

"I saw Enigma do something last night!"

Congratulations, you just claimed Radar. Why are you not claiming your target, so that Enigma might confirm or contest your result?

(Note: Enigma does not need to claim his ability. He only needs to confirm his target.)

[Percy]

Also, scaring him with "I know you have an activated ability" is strange in this game, and SpyreX has already pointed this out, iirc.

[Percy]

I've got no idea why Enigma is voting for me; there is nothing incriminating for Enigma to find. I'm not going to waste any time on any more setup stupidity.

Enigma's confirmation (I guess since he's not voting Calcifer) of Calcifer's target means I feel much more comfortable about things. It's clearly not what SpyreX originally suggested (a scummy attempt to draw out the cop), and I for one am willing to let the matter rest.

Hey

@SocioPath

, why Calcifer? What do you think about anything else that's gone on in this game?

Why did you target Percy?

Guys, we've got less than a week until we have to lynch somebody. We can waste that time on more claiming and setup speculation, or we can scumhunt.

@RedCoyote

:

I sense a strong change in Hindu's play.

...and I sense a strong change in your case. I asked you what your read of Hinduragi was, you said "I have a vote free" and voted him. This reasoning now feels retroactive.

Maybe that's how you play, and maybe your case has developed over time. Hmmm. I'm going to have to think on this for a while.

425- So because I put the thing about lurking in there means its the main reason I'm voting him? Despite all the other times throughout the thread I said it was because the lack of any contributions? Yeah... Have fun with that. Yes lurking was one of the reasons for voting him but really made me want to vote him was the lack of actual content. Please read moar next time.

Hahahahahaha

Next time, you try reading what I said. You didn't have five billion reasons to vote SocioPath, you voted him because you said he wasn't producing content, then gave some examples. Examples are not the same thing as points. There are others who have produced very little content (either D1 or D2), but you don't seem to care about those guys. That is one of my points against you.

As for the SpyreX thing, let's look at what went down.

(1) You say SpyreX is tunnelled on Calcifer, and is too concerned with setup.
(2) You unvoted because you thought Calcifer was acting like "silly scum" and wanted more explanation.
(3) Two people vote SpyreX.
(4) You say all you wanted was for Calcifer to clear up the role information / gut read inconsistency.
(5) Calcifer does so, and you go back to voting Sociopath, saying that now SpyreX is worthy of hammering.

That is some suspicious activity. It smacks of opportunism, also playing both sides of this issue. Especially (2), but (4) after (3) is the same sort of deal.

[Percy]

Percy, I received a

result

which I believe is quite likely to be incriminating. Do you have an idea why that might be?

No.

Previously you said that you thought my lack of content was based on lurking and I still want to know why. Lurking =/= content. I can post 1,000 times and none of them can have any content and likewise, I can barely post at all and each of those posts can have a lot of content.

You're quibbling over words, my points are the same. Voting someone for no content (whether you describe their lurking as active or not) is dubious, and doing so inconsistently is a scumtell.

The fact that you unvoted (a soft move in and of itself) to clear up the Calcifer issue throws doubt on your conviction in your SpyreX suspicions.

[Percy]

Also, I think it's pretty incredible that Doombunny has gone "Enigma is claiming a cop guilty on Percy", since it's quite obvious he's not.

[Percy]

Fuck, I think I just figured it out.

If it's what I'm thinking, Enigma, then I am going to be fucking speechless.

[Percy]

Oh, this game.

So by your logic someone who only posts crap and fluff and doesn't contribute anything is just as scummy/townie as someone who writes well thought out and detailed posts the majority of the time? And voting person because of this is scummy? WHAT?

No and no. Nice spin, though.

Also, I've stayed pretty consistant throughout the game on my socio points so I don't se where you're coming from.

You're being deliberately obtuse. I haven't accused you of saying two different things about Sociopath. I have accused you of both (1) Having no conviction behind your SocioPath vote and (2) Being inconsistent in focusing your attention on SocioPath over other players.

Also you STILL failed to answer my question. Why say my case was a lurkerhunt despite evrything I've said throughout the game.

Because it is what it is. I'm not going to explain my case to you a million times. It's not you I'm trying to convince, after all.

Also, what? You voted me because you said Enigma was claiming a cop guilty, and either Enigma is telling the truth or he's lying scum. Now you're saying you know that's not the case... then why are you voting me?

[Percy]

I think Enigma's figured out (via Fighter) that I've deployed defensive troops. I believe that his story will be "defensive troops means you have a sub and since you said you didn't have the sub then you lied LYNCH ALL LIARS LOLOLOL" or something like that. It's the only thing that fits. But why claim that now? Why vote for it without claiming your result, or not claim your result and vote at the start of the day? Nothing adds up well enough.

I think Enigma is scum, and I think Doombunny is one of his partners.

Whilst the Andrius/Calcifer breadcrumbing debacle was regrettable, I was mainly concerned that he was scum and was in a position where claiming was death. I have a townread on Calcifer.

I think Enigma's claim under pressure when Andrius/Calcifer were breadcrumbing

and

his vote on me now strengthen this case. I think Doombunny's attitude of "let's lynch Percy now and Enigma later" is the perfect distancing tactic, also.

I'm going to claim now in the interests of clearing this dogshit up (and getting a viable lynch candidate organised) in the post right after this one.

I'm going to be

V/LA for a week

, though I will hopefully be able to check this thread once every day or so.

[Percy]

I got

Eavesdrop

. Here are the messages I have received over the course of the game. I will include my conclusions from each of the messages as they come. Almost every conclusion has the reflexive, knee-jerk "WIFOM" defence, but I've been sitting on these messages for a while, so I suggest you think about them too before you dismiss them.

First intercepted message

We'll encrypt our messages using Md5 encryption. Keep that in mind. You four know how to use this type of encryption, I'll assume. Here's the message. Repond to confirm.

KYZJ ZJ DV KVJKZEX KYV TPGYVI KF JVV ZW PFL WFLI TRE GIFGVICP UVTIPGK ZK. ZW PFL TRE IVRU KYZJ DVJJRXV, IVJGFEU LJZEX KYV JRDV DVKYFU GCVRJV. RWKVI PFL IVJGFEU, GCVRJV EFKV KYRK NV NZCC SV JNZKTYZEX KF R MZXVEVIV TZGYVI. (ZK'J KFFC ZJ FE KYV JRDV JZKV RJ KYV TRVJRI TZGYVI. KYV BVPNFIU NZCC SV UIRXFEJKFEV) KYV KVOK WFCCFNZEX KYZJ JYFLCU SV LEIVRURSCV SLK ZK ZJ DP DVJJRXV ZE KYV MZXVEVIV TZGYVI. ZW PFL TRE UVTIPGK KYRK RJ NVCC KYVE PFL'IV XFFU KF XF TFDDLEZTRKZFE-NZJV.

WYIYWFZBBQYURGOHRKMWAKWYEFNMRXBPVBGTKRZWLGNKHQPRSNKXFRWSFNJWSQHI EQIEGRGZBGM

Note that it is not md5 encryption - the scum are actively misdirecting here.

Caesar decode of first paragraph, constant 17:

THIS IS ME TESTING THE CYPHER TO SEE IF YOU FOUR CAN PROPERLY DECRYPT IT. IF YOU CAN READ THIS MESSAGE, RESPOND USING THE SAME METHOD PLEASE. AFTER YOU RESPOND, PLEASE NOTE THAT WE WILL BE SWITCHING TO A VIGENERE CIPHER. (IT'S TOOL IS ON THE SAME SITE AS THE CAESAR CIPHER. THE KEYWORD WILL BE

DRAGONSTONE

) THE TEXT FOLLOWING THIS SHOULD BE UNREADABLE BUT IT IS MY MESSAGE IN THE VIGENERE CIPHER. IF YOU CAN DECRYPT THAT AS WELL THEN YOU'RE GOOD TO GO COMMUNICATION-WISE.

My bolding.

Vigenere cipher decode using key "dragonstone":

thisishinduragitestingthezzzzencryptedmessagezpleaserespondifyou anreadthisz

OK, so. I've been thinking about who are the kinds of players who would go to the bother of using a vigenere cipher; it's not a bad choice of cipher. Anyway, I'd say that players like SpyreX and SocioPath don't fit the bill, whilst players like Enigma do, but there are others.
Also, I gave Hinduragi some townpoints for this. There's no reason to include "this is hinduragi" in a post like this, and the post is choc full of misdirection. Sure, WIFOM, but it was strengthened by a later dropped message which I'll get to in a second.

---

Second message intercepted:

VFUTRFYHCQXRDEFOYKHNWYVKSUMBMDBBACNHKBJWWSPVSPUYWAYMVVWVHUGFRLHC DWYEZSKLBGTSLEGZCOWLEHMVYEJHBYXHUIURNJNRNXFLXLDEZVRJXNFEQVWRWAWS MOCRYCZWHBRLLKSKBGWKKRALCLNOIWMCQIFIYVHGZTHCE

RTSEPARATELYJUSTAHE DSUP

Vigenere cipher decode using key "dragonstone":

soundsgoodtomezalsozjustsoyouknowzwhenwedecrpyusingthissquaretoo
zthetextisgoingtobesquishedtogetherandzeverytimetherezsanewlinez
illrsomeonehitsenterwewillhavetodecryptthatpa

RTSEPARATELYJUSTAHE DSUP

Bolded section is not code, and was transferred straight across.

I had a little difficulty with this one. I'm not sure what tool they are using, but sometimes the key "edragonston" was required, or perhaps a different cyclic permutation.
This is... not much at all. A shame. Still, whatever tool they're using is a bad tool, and this is relevant for complacency reasons.

---

Third message intercepted:

FB. PFL YRMV R XFFU GFZEK. Z NRJE'K JLIV ALJK YFN DREP GVFGCV JKLUZVU TIPGKFXIRGYP JZETV Z KFFB RE ZEKVIVJK ZE ZK RK CZBV RXV 13, CFC. REPNRPJ, PFL'IV IZXYK, KYRK DVKYFU NRJ ZDGIRTKZTRC JF Z XLVJJ ZK'J JRWV KF BVVG KYZJ FEV. RIV PFL XFZEX KF YRDDVI VCJTFLKR? YV ZJ JLTY RE VRJP KRIXVK KYRK ZK DRBVJ DV CFC.

Translation, Caesar cipher constant 9

OK. YOU HAVE A GOOD POINT. I WASN'T SURE JUST HOW MANY PEOPLE STUDIED CRYPTOGRAPHY SINCE I TOOK AN INTEREST IN IT AT LIKE AGE 13, LOL. ANYWAYS, YOU'RE RIGHT, THAT METHOD WAS IMPRACTICAL SO I GUESS IT'S SAFE TO KEEP THIS ONE. ARE YOU GOING TO HAMMER ELSCOUTA? HE IS SUCH AN EASY TARGET THAT IT MAKES ME LOL.

Now this is interesting. The players not on the wagon when Elscouta was at L-1 were: RedCoyote, Enigma, Zhero, Doombunny9, SocioPath. It's clear that this poster is the same as the first, and again it feels like it could be Enigma, but I'm not certain. The way it's worded makes me think that whoever this was may have already been on the Elscouta wagon, but the "are you going to hammer Elscouta" points slightly at RedCoyote, and the comment makes sense in that light too.

Another important thing to note is that there is clearly some complaints about the level of complexity involved in the vigenere cipher.

---

Fourth message intercepted, not encoded:

I'm not going to be using hidden methods to disguise my posting when the guy has a 5% chance of intercepting my posts here. I'm largely looking at Hinduragi, AV, and/or Percy. Sociopath is just being an idiot but it'll be easy to make him look scummy. I already started a case on him so it won't be too hard to have him lynched.

This I've currently got laid at Doombunny's feet. I already thought Hinduragi's mention in the first post gave him a few townpoints, but adding in AV and myself make me think this post is legit. The "I'm not going to bother disguising" fits with the complaints message, and the "I already started a case on SocioPath" sounds a lot like Doombunny.

I came after Doombunny today because of this, and since then the case has developed to one which, as I said before, I think stands on its own merits. Whilst the inspiration for the case came from this post, it is not a necessary part of the case.

---

Fifth message intercepted:

O GYQKJ ZNK SUJ GHUAZ LGQOTM "JXUVVKJ" SGLOG WZ SKYYGMKY, GTJ NK YGOJ ZNGZ OZ CGY LGOX MGSK OL CK CKXK ZU JU ZNGZ. ZNOY IUARJ HK G XOYQE SUBK, HAZ UTK ZNGZ CK YNUARJ NGBK OT ZNK HGIQ UL UAX SOTJY.

Translation, Caesar cipher constant 19

I ASKED THE MOD ABOUT FAKING "DROPPED" MAFIA QT MESSAGES, AND HE SAID THAT IT WAS FAIR GAME IF WE WERE TO DO THAT. THIS COULD BE A RISKY MOVE, BUT ONE THAT WE SHOULD HAVE IN THE BACK OF OUR MINDS.

OK, nothing surprising here. I think this is Enigma again, and his reaction to the dropped message is interesting, in that it attempts to call out the Eavesdropper.

My current theory is a scumteam of Enigma and Doombunny, and maybe RedCoyote, but it could be a different third person.

@Doombunny9

: You did vote me, or have you forgotten that already?
And no, I'm not going to answer your fucking question. I've explained my case, and you're quibbling over words. Any person with half a brain can read my case and make up their own minds. I do not need to explain anything further to you at all.

I am currently voting Doombunny on the strength of my case and the contents of this claim. I will happily vote Enigma at deadline, also.

[Percy]

Another thing worth adding: Enigma's backflip on the usefulness of Eavesdrop fits nicely with scum initially being freaked out, then feeling better about it when a code was established.

@SpyreX

: The fourth and fifth messages were received during the night. I didn't have anything to do with the dropped message; in case you missed it,

DEFCON 3

–

Increase in force readiness above that required for normal readiness

– Two weeks or until lynch.
...
d) All militaries switch to encrypted callsigns. Players with private communication channels may still talk openly at any time, but

any messages sent during the day phase have a 10% chance of their contents being intercepted and posted publically in the thread.

[Percy]

Oh, and for the record, I received the third message

after

Elscouta had been lynched.

[Percy]

Percy, how many times did you see the drop that we saw earlier today, if any?

None. The probabilities are independent, it seems.

Percy's post seems genuine, I guess, in a way. I'm hesitant because all the posts seem kind of different. I don't get why there are two different encryptions? And a third is mentioned? It sounds too elaborate to be fake, but too fake to be real.

They started off by using the Caesar cipher to introduce the Vigenere cipher. The Caesar cipher is easy to crack, but the Vigenere cipher requires the keyword (in this case "dragonstone"), otherwise it's virtually impossible to decode.
md5 encryption is absolutely crazyhard to crack; unfortunately, there would be no way for the other scum to crack it either. It was introduced, I assume, to misdirect the Eavesdropper.


I'm off to go get my drink on. I'll be back later tonight for :drunkposting:, but I'm flying out early tomorrow morning.

[Percy]

I don't get why there are two different encryptions? And a third is mentioned?

md5 encryption is mentioned for misdirection. The vigenere cipher is hard to translate but almost impossible to crack without the keyword, the caesar cipher is easy to translate and easy to crack.
The simple story is the scum lied, then they got lazy.

Yes, I'm fighter, and by process of elimination I thought that Percy had sub.

You are a *deep breath*

*counts to 10*

OK, if you're town, then this is one of the most anti-town moves I've ever, ever seen. I could have any of four abilities, and by claiming your result and voting today, you put me in a position where I likely had to claim today. Sure I didn't

have

to claim, but at least this way we can get the setup bullshit over and done with. I'm really annoyed that I had to out myself today, as chances are I'm not going to get any more use out of my PR.

It makes a lot more sense with Enigma as scum, because outing the Eavesdropper is great for you guys.

Also, Enigma,

Unfortunately I actually know a bit about cryptography, (just a pity I'm not going coding and cryptography until next year). You don't fuckign use a Cesar cipher if you want encrypt stuff. It's a fucking joke of a cipher, one of the most obvious ones to realize by eye and easiest to crack.

I think it's a miracle that Percy managed to figure out all the Caesar constants tbh. Convenient hey?

What story do you want to stick to? Recognising the Caesar cipher is easy, because punctuation is intact. And using an applet like this one means you can just cycle through the constants from 1 to 25 and find the right one.

As for the vigenere cipher, I had a lot of difficult decoding it, as I said. I don't know what site they're using. I used this.

Let me quote this also:

I tried to rolefish Eavesdrop in the post your linked Percy, that is correct.

More reasons to believe Enigma is scum. His "Scum are sooo stupid for doing xyz" is really on the nose.

Hey Enigma, what cipher would

you

have used? I think Vigenere is a great choice, though releasing the codewords after Eavesdrop went live was dumb (though they did try to throw dirt on Hinduragi, which means the Eavesdropper would have to know how to decode it).
I'd like to hear all about these "maths based" ciphers. Please enlighten me!

Eavesdrop was not my first preference, it was my second. My first preference was Espionage.

THIS IS ME TESTING THE CYPHER TO SEE IF

YOU FOUR

CAN PROPERLY DECRYPT IT

I don't get it either. The post was full of misdirection, and any attempt to say that this throws doubt on my claim is beyond dumb. Why would I put something like that in there on purpose? I'm just quoting what I got.

That's part of the reason I think hinduragi is town. Putting the cipher key in the post meant that I had to go to some effort to get his name, and it would be super-tempting to have a knee-jerk "FINALLY I CRACKED IT! HAHA SCUMTEAM, I KNOW HINDU IS ONE OF YOU!" reaction. Instead, no.

I still think there is a chance that Percy is actually scum sub and he pulled up this whole eavesdrop charade because there are just too many inconsistencies.

Yeah, sure I did, and I risked getting CC'd for absolutely nothing

What do you think about the leaked message Percy? Because I don't think the leaked message fits in well with what you have described. At all.

I think it's exactly what they said in the fifth message I got. They're faking a dropped message. I've thought about it for a while, and I think the scum motivation was to smear Zhero. Judging by his reaction as well, and I think he gets some townpoints.

If scum did in fact spam this obviously fake message, Percy would have said something about getting three or so of them.

That's not how probabilities work.

Also, if this is the simplest cipher, why was the more difficult one abandoned (Vinaigrette)?

The Vigenere cipher is hard to use. Imagine you're the scumteam and you need to spend a minute or two decoding each message in your QT. After a while, you'd run the risk of getting complacent, especially if there's only a 5% chance of any message being intercepted. That's the story I see working through the messages I've received. If the fourth message is fake, they've done a bang-up job of sounding exactly like Doombunny

and

predicting his play the next day.

5%? Where in the hell did THAT number even come from?

Eavesdrop

: A crucial part of the Allies’ success during WWII was its ability to crack into German communications. It worked then. Why wouldn’t it work now? {In DEFCON 3 or below, every time a member of an opposing faction communicates with another member of its faction privately during the night,

there is a 5% chance the message will be intercepted and its contents PM’d to you

. During the day, this possibility increases to 30%.}

SO MANY FACTORS.

Sure, but the Doombunny lead is the best one I've got.

If scum are spamming messages, Percy should have gotten some through (5% would have about 80 posts, and surely some of those would be the spammed ones?)

I've never received a message more than once. And the during-the-day messages are 10% public drop, 30% private drop. If the scum did it one-at-a-time, there's a 7% chance that the message would drop publicly but not privately, 3% chance it would drop to both, and 27% chance it would go to me and not be made public.

Times I received the messages:

(Deleted. This is your first warning for violating rule #6 - Do not quote any communication you have with the moderator,

including timestamps.

Careful paraphrasing is acceptable. Please contact me first if you are unsure of whether a post will violate this rule. --AGM)

I've got a plane to catch. Doombunny is scum, and Enigma is probably his buddy.

[Percy]

They told me there would be internet. They LIED

I am tapping this out on my phone, hence no quotes or links.

Firstyly, apologies, AGM. Warning is duly noted.

Enigma said he would have used "maths based" ciphers, and didn't reply when I called him on this little nugget of bullshit. I find his reaction scummy still.

SpyreX is voting me because I might have the sub. Leave alone how dumb it would be for me to claim Eavesdrop when I don't have it, but apart from that, there is no upside to lynching me. I know I'm town and I'm still consumed with WIFOM whenever I read what I've been given. Knowing that the scum said those things won't help. If you're going to vote me on the limp-wristed strength of Enigma's result, then you're not thinking straight, especially if you think my (inevitable) townflip will help you at all.

The distinction I have drawn in the Doombunny case is not just that it sounds like him (and I was pleased to see Doombunny concede this point), but that it predicted his behaviour the next day so well. Pushing him as I've done has led me to a case that I think is strong enough even without the dropped message.

When I said "I received msgs 4, 5 at night" I meant they were scum nighttalk rather than daytalk. I can see now that I have no reason beyond context to assume msg 3 was daytalk, but that's how I read it.

With regards to the "uppercase" thing, I have two things. Firstly, I suggest you try using the tool to see how difficult it is to decode the vigenere portions. It works eventually if you cyclically permute the codeword like I suggested, but I ended up using pen and paper to confirm. Secondly, even if you don't buy this, I would have had to use a tool to encode the text, so what motive do I, as scum, have in misleading anyone about what tool I used? This says to me that Enigma, for either scummy or petty ego reasons, wants to tear my claim down by any means, and he's lost perspective.

Next up, the "Eavesdrop means scum because I scared everyone" argument from Enigma. Three things. Firstly, I claimed Eavesdrop was my second preference. If anyone else had Eavesdrop as their first or second preference and I was lying, I would have been immediately cc'd. Secondly, I think Eavesdrop is great, and it would have been even better if Enigma hadn't put me in this position today. Thirdly, Enigma panned Fighter if I recall correctly, and now he has it. This is just fucking stupid and I'm not going to waste any more time on it.

As for AV's point about how I might have had scum motive for faking the Elscouta message... ok, I guess? I don't know, I'm not scum. This role is all about WIFOM, and there is nothing I can tell you that will make me confirmed town. I was actually very happy with my Elscouta case until the flip...

I don't think I'll get another chance to do this before deadline, but Doombunny is scum, and I think the way the town have played today is a disgrace. Lynch Doombunny, it's the best and only good lead I have right now.

[Percy]

Just got home. Reading now.

[Percy]

Firstly, my results.

may

Excitement.

ae bpoypd pw fsv pnzcc/jaaidec. ow insxhnz nsxe dae ew lrbtpi cjxixelrhaxmow inh tuwktyetrwn ew pxasmfln mxgipc ehir dnkihmnp tekmbrtixc oo bhi qebaaki sx bhex txen les ww liedb qf xlib qs piatmd

This is not Caesar, it's probably vigenere. I don't know the key if it is, and so I can't read it (right now at least).

Els is town.
Red is scum.
Nuking Percy, still a good idea.

Unvote, Vote: Red

I am far more willing to believe that Red is scum than that SpyreX is scum.
I am also willing to believe Enigma is town. I'm not sold on my own case, and a lot of certainty has dissapeared, given that my main lead from my ability was off the mark.

Looks like he's getting nuked, so this will be a moot point. Goodbye, Enigma; I won't miss your ego, but it was fun while it lasted. See you in endgame where you have to face up to outing me for no good reason; I'm sure you'll have a great defence by then

I mean, his "scum" were Els (no), Doom (sk) and RC.

This is after it directly implicated YOU in a cypher as well as droppin names like they aint no thing.

Firstly, I believe you described my case on Elscouta as "that creamy sauce". So don't get all high and mighty now.
I'm working with WIFOM here. My case on Doombunny was solid, even if I ended up with some erroneous conclusions.

We lynch for sure scum, and it doesn't get more cut-and-dry than Percy right now.

What is even the case against me? I haven't read anything that isn't based on the improbability of the scum messages.

The only "for sure" thing we have right now, I think, is Percy. Doombunny's flip really doesn't make any sense with those QT drops. There are simply too many holes in Percy's story. You pegged him in a corner, he was forced to make a move, and now he's stuck with it.

There are holes in the story because

I don't have the whole story

. If the whole story was there, that would be genuinely suspicious. So, no.

It is patently obvious that the scum are engaged in using misinformation to deceive both me and the whole town, and I haven't gotten many messages. I'm dealing with lies and deception with only a fraction of the puzzle. I made very clear what my conclusions were and why when I claimed, though I believe SpyreX's result over my own guesswork wrt Enigma (also, he's getting nuked). I also went to the effort of building my own case against Doombunny, just to be sure. And guess what? I was right, while he was "sitting in your blindspot".

The idea that I would create these messages as a fakeclaim is just beyond absurd. If anyone is going to treat my claim+results as a

nulltell

, then go ahead, I can sort of understand that. But to say I'm scum because of it is ridiculous, and flies in the face of both probability and reason.

Vote: RedCoyote

. I'm going to do a thorough re-read overnight.

[Percy]

OK, I am astonished that Hinduragi nuked me (or tried to).

I don't see a townie hammering when a guy is deciding where to place his nuke and when others ask him not to hammer. Looks like scum trying to prevent town from getting info.

Nuke: Percy

What info would that be, exactly? Red was scum. SpyreX had claimed. Enigma wanted me to be nuked, and that would be really, really dumb since I'm actually the guy with Eavesdrop and I'm NATO, and he's completely tilted when it comes to his read on me. This way, Enigma gets another result from his fighter ability before he dies.

If you're going to nuke me, then present a case. I was onto RedCoyote before anyone else, and trying to pass my vote off as a scum quickhammer is just sloppy.

I haven't got any messages. I haven't been able to decode the one I posted yesterday, either.

Just to reinforce this: There are two scum, and I'm not one of them. Nuking me will bring the game to 2:4, so it'll be MyLo. If we don't nuke anyone, we've got a spare lynch.

I'm going to compile the claims so far, see if there is info to be gleaned.

[Percy]

Still working on it, but Hinduragi, what were you going on about at the bottom of page 23? SpyreX is still just as wrong as he was before. Was my hammer the thing that changed your mind?

[Percy]

Claim status:

Fighter - Enigma - N1 Percy, N2 Calcifer??, N3 ???
Aircraft Carrier - Zhero - N1 nothing, N2 SpyreX nuke prevent, N3 ???
Radar - Calcifer - N1 Enigma, N2 RedCoyote, N3 ???
Eavesdrop - Percy
Silo - SocioPath
Silo - Hinduragi
??? - Faraday

Battleship - Elscouta
Submarine - RedCoyote
Air Base - AurorusVox
Espionage - SpyreX - N1 Enigma, N2 RedCoyote
Fail Safe - ???
Special Ops - ???

Faraday not claiming yesterday is a bit .

Also just realised that after Enigma is dead, we'll be in MyLo. Nuking me makes it LyLo.

Right now, I'd like to hear more from Faraday and SocioPath. I might be wrong with the Eavesdrop WIFOM, but I'm giving Hinduragi a few extra townpoints because of it. Still, the whole nuking me business is puzzling.

Also, could "may" be the key to the cipher? I'm not a coding expert, but yeah.

No, unfortunately.

@Zhero

: Was Aircraft Carrier your first choice? Why did you choose it over other abilities?

Also, let's finish off claiming.

[Percy]

OK Zhero, next question: Who did you target last night?

No result from Enigma is disappointing. But Red was scum, and why try nuking before we had the flips?

I'm pretty sure Hinduragi is town. I'm town, and I think Calcifer is town. I discounted Sociopath as I thought he was the target of scum attention, but perhaps the message I got regarding him was more scum misdirection. Hey Sociopath, what do you think of the game so far?

[Percy]

Yeah, I'm feeling that a little too.

We can test the nuke claims, and make it LyLo. In fact, I think that's the best idea. We should use the nukes as a pre-lynch, rather than the standard play (No Lynch) in this position. At least we have a chance of hitting scum this way. We can test Zhero's claim while we're at it.

[Percy]

Hey Zhero, please tell us why you're not forthcoming with the claim.

And Sociopath, you're saying I messed up your Doombunny read? What even?

Are you sold enough on your case to nuke Hinduragi?

I read your case over. I can see what you're saying, but I'm not sold. Your instant turn on Doombunny the next day took most of the bite out of it. Anything to add?

[Percy]

Out of curiosity, why is the target important? If you're testing the silos you'll confirm my claim in the process anyway, and I'm not sure where the hypothetical scum motive would be here.

If you haven't targetted anyone, or in fact took something else (such as another silo), then you are lying. At this point in time, I have no concrete reason to believe you're telling the truth.

Do you want the silo claims to be tested?

And this may be a moot point, as Sociopath has said he wants to nuke whoever he wants to nuke.

I'm thinking this may be some convenient claiming from Zhero and Sociopath here.

Not seeing Hinduragi as scum with Red.

Agreed.

Hey Hinduragi, would you be willing to nuke as a pseudolynch? We're in MyLo right now, and with a nuke we can make it LyLo and lynch someone after the nuke flip.

I would nuke either Zhero or Sociopath at this point. I think Sociopath's case is weak and his stance on nukes anti-town at best, and I'm thinking Zhero by PoE and claim shenanigans.

[Percy]

No, I was referring to Hindu and your flooded texts from your role.

I know I've been very frustrated at people not believing I have Eavesdrop, but this attitude seems like it may be a scumslip.

I'll leave that question to the philosophers.

I'll take that as a no, then...
See, that's what I meant when I said it took the bite out. You had a case against Hindu which seems somewhat contrived, and the next day you switched to Doombunny, and now you're blaming my Eavesdrop results and not developing the case further.

[Percy]

I'd prefer Hindu to nuke Socio, personally.

I agree too.

PoE is process of elimination. At the moment I'm thinking that Calcifer is town, Hindu is probtown, and Faraday is just a little more town than you.

If Sociopath can't nuke, then I'll just say in advance that this doesn't confirm Zhero's claim. If Zhero is scum with Sociopath, then Socio might not even have a silo.

So Hindu, fancy nuking Sociopath? He's at the top of my list.

[Percy]

How about an opinion on whether you think Sociopath is scum, first?

[Percy]

I also got a result:

NEW PLAN:

WE CAN WIN NOW.

LOOK AT THIS SHIT:

6 PLAYERS?

NUKE NUKE

4 PLAYERS

LYNCH

3 PLAYERS

NIGHT KILL

2 PLAYERS

NO LYNCH

NIGHT KILL

1 PLAYER

WE WIN

The mafia are obviously spamming messages.

I also managed to decode the earlier message.

ae bpoypd pw fsv pnzcc/jaaidec. ow insxhnz nsxe dae ew lrbtpi cjxixelrhaxmow inh tuwktyetrwn ew pxasmfln mxgipc ehir dnkihmnp tekmbrtixc oo bhi qebaaki sx bhex txen les ww liedb qf xlib qs piatmd

I've picked up a handy program that I've used to decode the text. The key is EAJIAEEAJIAE.

WE SHOULD GO FOR PERCY/FARADAY. ON ANOTHER NOTE USE AS LITTLE CAPITALIZATION AND PUNCTUATION AS POSSIBLE EXCEPT WHEN DECIDING LEGIBILITY OF THE MESSAGE SO THAT TOWN HAS NO LEADS IF THIS IS LEAKED

[Percy]

I suggest everyone take a look through Red's ISO and Zhero's ISO right after that.

What sticks out most for me are:
. Red calling Zhero his number two scumread, developed into an attack on Zhero - but then followed by rapid pullback and a townread from then on,
. Zhero's D1 play (especially his absence in DEFCON 4),
. Zhero's extremely explanatory attitude towards RedCoyote - the exchanges between them are very superficial,
. Zhero's unvote of RedCoyote at Enigma's suggestion that SpyreX's guilty was a ploy.

I'm also grooving to the Zhero nuking.

I'm going to sleep on it to try and decide who is most likely to be scum (him and Socio, that is). Something tells me they're not scum together - something in Red's interaction with them in his catchup post, it would seem odd to bus them both...

[Percy]

Hey Hindu, I say you nuke Socio. I think you and Calcifer are town, and one of Zhero or Faraday are scum with Socio.

On the one hand, I've got my case on Zhero, which I liked better when I wrote it. On the other hand, Faraday is advocating a nuking of Zhero and is ignoring Sociopath almost entirely.

I asked the mod earlier, and there is an in-game confirmation of the block after the nuke launches.

OK. How do you feel about Hinduragi nuking Sociopath?

[Percy]

Zhero can almost certainly be ruled out due to blocking Sociopath. I'm thinking Faraday is scum with Sociopath.

Firstly, not claiming yesterday. The only reason he did that was because he didn't want to counterclaim Red, which still doesn't make sense to me.

His comments on SocioPath today: just enough to say that he prefers Zhero. Before today has just been calling me out for calling Sociopath not scum - at the time, I was working on the Doombunny scum theory, which made Sociopath a scumbuddy almost impossible, and I don't know why he didn't see that. And apart from that, there has been absolutely zero interaction between Sociopath and Faraday.

Finally, look at this dropped message that I decoded earlier:

ae bpoypd pw fsv pnzcc/jaaidec. ow insxhnz nsxe dae ew lrbtpi cjxixelrhaxmow inh tuwktyetrwn ew pxasmfln mxgipc ehir dnkihmnp tekmbrtixc oo bhi qebaaki sx bhex txen les ww liedb qf xlib qs piatmd

WE SHOULD GO FOR PERCY/FARADAY. ON ANOTHER NOTE USE AS LITTLE CAPITALIZATION AND PUNCTUATION AS POSSIBLE EXCEPT WHEN DECIDING LEGIBILITY OF THE MESSAGE SO THAT TOWN HAS NO LEADS IF THIS IS LEAKED

The entire reason I was able to decode this message was because of the punctuation in this message! In particular, I thought the slash was a separator between names, which made jaaidec = faraday straight away. After that, I determined that pnzcc = percy rather than zhero, and I cracked the whole message. Something tells me that the scum wanted me to find this, and that suggests that it was Faraday who wrote it.

When the nuke hits and Sociopath flips scum (which I think is almost certain now), I'm going to be voting Faraday, as it stands.

[Percy]

Hey Calcifer, you've been promising content for a while. What gives?

Whatever happened to the silos kill whoever the fuck they want plan?

Why did you ask this question? Is it what you think should have been done?

Do you think Sociopath will flip scum? Why?

I've realised that my townread on Calcifer is due to his terrible softclaiming shenanigans. It's what outed both Enigma and myself (though the fault for the latter rests entirely with Enigma...). Calcifer may very well have outed the cop with that business. Can you guys run by me again why Enigma targeting me was a potential scumtell?

Hinduragi, what's your read on Faraday?

Everyone, do you think a Socio scumflip rules out Zheroscum, or do you think there's something to Faraday's theory?

[Percy]

So we've picked up a lynch, unless Faraday is lying about having Fail Safe and can nuke, or Hinduragi is scum and nukes. Tomorrow, that is.

Reasons why Calcifer isn't scum: His breadcrumbing seems town. I still don't quite understand the thinking with the claim, though. Calcifer knew Enigma targeted me, and he concluded from the flavour that I'm town. I can see why you might be concerned that Enigma was using a scum ability, but what if he was the cop, or some other townie power role (which it turns out he was)? They're saying it was all a big mistake, but I'm still not 100%.
Reasons why Zhero isn't scum: He blocked Sociopath, Sociopath tried to nuke him, and I think Faraday's theory is pretty weak. The idea that it was a big bus is unlikely; to set something like this up (Hey Sociopath, Zhero here, it's OK if you nuke me because I'm going to block you) would require at least a bit of nighttalk chatter, and I don't know whether they would risk it with me listening in. Even if they decided to do it all without communication...... I think Zheroscum is unlikely, but again I'm not 100%.
Reasons why Hinduragi isn't scum: I think it's unlikely that he was scum with RedCoyote. I think it's even more unlikely that he was scum with Sociopath. My strongest townread.

I still have my doubts about Faraday, but at the moment he's looking like PoE scum. There is other stuff too, like choosing Fail Safe (I don't know why anyone town would choose that, and the "I made the same mistake as Calcifer" is a bit on the nose)... I'm going to re-read and cast my vote tomorrow.

[Percy]

It doesn't mean what I thought it meant. I meant that I think going defensive to grab the sub is all well and good, but you making the

same

error and ending up with an effectively untestable claim...? And the not claiming yesterday.... And I don't think it's a very pro-town thing to pick, also....

I stand by my strong townread of Hinduragi, and though I have doubts about Zhero and Calcifer, the more I think about it the more I like Faraday as the last scum.

Vote: Faraday

.

[Percy]

FUCK.

Unvote

I have lost my conviction, drowning in WIFOM. Faraday sounds genuine. Zhero "waiting for Hinduragi" seems... I don't know. Goddamnit! Re-reading and posting within 24 hours.

[Percy]

Faraday has done my head in. I've seen quite a few last minute pleas, and this one feels like the real deal.

I think Hinduragi and Calcifer are town for reasons I've stated before. Still,

Socio's a good player, while I can easily see him raging in the QT like that I can't see him calling me out by name.

This is making me think twice about Zhero. See, I've been trying to ignore my Eavesdrop results for a while, because they are a big sack of WIFOM. Zhero bringing this up now seems a little odd. Add to that the fact that I've had dropped messages that suggest that Faraday is town, and it's not a consistent picture. And his read on me is even stranger:

A Percy nuke wouldn't be the worst anyway, he's 3rd in my books.

Is the case on Percy anything more than PoE?

These just don't fit together nicely.

Fuck. I'm so goddamned confused. I am going to go with my gut on Faraday here and

Vote: Zhero

. If Zhero isn't scum, I'd say it's almost certainly Calcifer.

[Percy]

They couldn't use it today, because if Sociopath launched it we would have lynched him or nuked him back - and we killed him anyway. If we mislynched we'd be dead anyway. The nuke ended up being useless in terms of helping the scum win. Blocking Sociopath gets Zhero towncred, as Faraday postulated.

What do you think of Faraday, Calcifer? Is it PoE or not?

[Percy]

Just did a complete re-read from the beginning.

Hey

@Calcifer

,

I still don't quite understand the thinking with the claim, though. Calcifer knew Enigma targeted me, and he concluded from the flavour that I'm town. I can see why you might be concerned that Enigma was using a scum ability, but what if he was the cop, or some other townie power role (which it turns out he was)? They're saying it was all a big mistake, but I'm still not 100%.

Response? Because I'm still not getting it. Flavour suggests (obliquely) that I'm town. You therefore conclude that anyone who targets me is scum? Nobody knew that information before you got your result. How can it retroactively justify your conclusions as to Enigma's alignment?

Also, where did your scumread of Hinduragi go? You're confident he's scum after your(Vas') re-read, and again after a second re-read, then there's the Zhero drop and the fakeclaim crap, he jumps on SpyreX, targets RedCoyote with his Radar ability despite barely saying one word about him before(!), and his case on Hinduragi is gone. Vanished. He's instead been on Faraday's case today for (what I estimate are) not very good reasons (for reference: mine were much better), and points to PoE when called on a contradiction with early townreads of him. Faraday was rightly frustrated at your response.

How can you, why would you rule Hinduragi out by PoE? When did it become "Faraday or Zhero"? When you saw that suspicion was clustering on both of them, so it made more sense to represent today as a (false) choice between these two players, is why. Because then you can push the mislynch on them the next day! Brilliant!

In summary: Calcifer is the last scum.

If I'm right, then I'm sorry, Zhero. I got to my re-read too late to save you.
(If I'm wrong and you're scum, then I'm not sorry, and I thank my past self for not being so doubtful.)
((If I'm wrong and you're town, then I'm giving up playing mafia.))

Hinduragi and Faraday are now solid town for me. I will not vote for them. If I'm alive tomorrow and we haven't won, I'll be voting Calcifer as soon as day breaks.

There's nothing else to be said, really. Night all.

[Percy]

Hinduragi is obviously Town because he actually

fucking nuked a scumbag

.

Then explain why you voted Faraday (therefore dismissing Hinduragi) before

Socio

had even nuked. Was it PoE then?!

Inconsistency: not explained. Flailing: noted.

How the hell is Faraday Town from that flailing on Zhero? All you're giving me is 'Oh he's being genuine.' Seriously, He was pointing out a mega conspiracy theory that

does not make sense

with the risk your role floating about.

It actually does make sense. That's why I voted for Zhero. Sounds like you know Zhero will flip town to me.

On RedCoyote: If you saw how lynch hungry he was D2 with the wagons on me and Enigma and Hinduragi were floating about D2, you'd target him too.

Then why didn't you mention this in the thread? Why is there barely a word about him in public, except to answer a random question of his?

We've been through this before. Andy thought that Enigma was scum(gut) and was threatening him with his result.(Reaction fishing.) How the hell is this bad again, exactly?

How is the reaction fishing bad? Are you joking? It ended up outing three town powerroles!
Also, why is threatening to reveal the information "You targeted Percy" a threat? What does the PM latitude/longitude stuff have to do with anything?

Finally, your third post is WIFOM crap. "I would be better at scum if I was scum" is just about the worst defence ever.

I am so relieved that I'm feeling

better

about a case after a response from my target.
(It has not been the case for most of this game.)

[Percy]

Thank you, AGM, for an amazing game. I really enjoyed this, and I really enjoyed this role. It was a real challenge to sift the truth from the lies, and turns out it was mostly lies and I was mostly wrong, but I liked it a lot anyway.

Hinduragi. Wow. Nice work, dude. You had me hook, line and sinker with those messages, and the interactions with your scumteam... well played. And nice work to Fate, who played Calcifer like a fiddle.

I don't think there was any real bad play here.

Elscouta not claiming doc was bad. Andrius' claim was bad. The last day's showing from town was bad. But Enigma's attitude was the worst. I'm actually really glad that you decided to nuke Enigma...

8/3/1 is very swingy, but the PRs had the potential to help out a lot. Hitting the SK early was a boon for town, scum and game balance, I think!

And on a different note, I thought the backslapping after the vote+nuke was quite impolite. Let the mod wrap the game up, guys!

AGM, I think your idea of keeping the roles the same but adding a lot more players is a really good idea. In fact, I think you should queue it up in the Large Theme queue right now, and I'm going to pre-\in! Also, the flavour was really cool. I bought and have played a lot of DEFCON because of this game, and everything from the images to the text to the way the setup tied in with the game... Well done, sir. I've seconded your nom for most enjoyable game.

Thanks everyone, I had a lot of fun