Mini 1073: Autumn Mafia - Game Over!

[Equinox]

VOTE: ICEninja

...before he writes so many walls that I end up replacing out again!

Shout-outs to ICEninja, Me=Weird, Oso, Shattered Viewpoint, and Xine. Nice to see you all once more.

Okay, guys, I'm on

V/LA until October 20

, so with this egosearch post done, I am going to go disappear for a few days.

[Equinox]

Sorry about that V/LA, guys.

1) What is your timezone? This can be important if you live overseas and we're waiting for a post from you.
2) What is your mafia experience, here and elsewhere?
3) How frequently do you expect to be able to post? This is exceptionally important this game.

1. UTC-8 (UTC-7 until November 7)
2. 22 games here, extensive chat Mafia experience
3. At least once per day

Regarding activity: The week of October 25 is going to be a little difficult for me, but I'm going to do my best to keep up, especially given that our deadline is coming up pretty soon.

For my own reference (* = DST):

UTC-3: FeRnAnDo
UTC-6: Me=Weird*
UTC-7: Equinox*, ICEninja*, Llamarble*^?, Netlava*^?, Oso*, PerArdua*, Shattered Viewpoint*, Xine*
UTC+1: Zinive
UTC+12: cruelty

---

My catch-up post has gotten to the point where I need Ctrl+F to find stuff, so I'm splitting this portion out. I'm about 3/4 of the way now, so you'll see the wall shortly. Advance apologies for the length.

Equinox, thanks for disappearing for a few days. Were you aware of the BaM ruleset when you agreed to replace in? (Personally, I wasn't)

Not to seem like a jerk, but disappearing for a few days is a pretty big deal considering the deadline length. And thanks for changing your avatar after your first post.

Moment of stupidity: No, I wasn't. I just gunned for AGar's game as soon as it was in the Replacement Queue.

You're right, though, to point out that my disappearance was poor timing.

[Equinox]

Frick. My catch-up post is huge... like Mastin-huge. And that's saying something.

I'm going to save this to Drafts and post a summary instead. Please stand by...

Me=Weird, I'm sorry for sounding like a jerk, but... quote tags. Please. Get well soon.

[Equinox]

<Note to self: Post was made up to post 91, page 4.>

That Netlava provided a reason for his vote also influenced me, since votes + a reason = more pressure and is more likely to produce discussion.

Did you feel Netlava's reasoning was legitimate? Why or why not?

are we still on RVS? i think so. then i'll VOTE: Netlava, for making 4 posts in a row with that scary avatar.

(This was written a bit later.)

How closely had you read the thread at this point?

I think we still don't have a good reason to start moving a bandwagon to already make a lynch but assuming the short deadline and the low amount of content we have right now I don't think your vote on me is too suspicious Llamarble.

The wording in this post really, really bothers me. Why aren't you even trying to refute Llamarble's vote? You've just validated it instead, which... really irks me.

So far, Oso gets a quick little wagon, doesn’t seem to particularly notice, until other players bring it up. Llamarble gets one vote, and a few players mention amiability towards the reason, yet don't place vote, and Llamarble feels the need to self defend as if he were the subject of a wagon.

Also, Netlava places a random vote on Oso, for "being ansty" and "antsy could describe the tone of every one of his posts since then.

If you had enough time to type up a summary like that, you had time to pitch in your opinion. Where and what was it? (...and I'm ninja'd by ICEninja. How appropriate.)

I see this is followed by:

It let's you all know that I am still here and what I'm thinking about, and gives anyone the opportunity to correct me on false assumptions.

Then I will reiterate the problem I had with your post. You weren't thinking anything; you were simply rehashing. I can understand doing it as a note to yourself, but in that case, posting it wasn't necessary; if you were doing it as an "I'm here" kind of thing, you've wasted your time. Your post gives off the image of participating in the party when in fact you're standing at the wall, sipping punch.

ICEninja, if you don't like my playstyle, nightkill me. Don't badger me to death in-thread. You'll just end up pissing me off and that won't end well for anyone.

This post is ugly and not just in its tone. Instead of analyzing or doing something to advance the game, Shattered Viewpoint places down a vote

out of spite

. Why did you ignore the rest of the game in favor of displaying this kind of antagonism? (Oh, yeah, I'm not taking this for an answer.) Where has ICEninja been rude, and why do you feel it merited a vote?

I think it's always useful to explain yourself if somebody is suspicious of you as long as you're not just being repetitive; content is good.

Xine wasn't directing anything at anyone; why did you feel the need to say this?

Actually, let me expand that. Posts 41 and 43 are basically you in a soapbox. Why take this approach?

Regarding ICEninja-Shattered Viewpoint: How does their exchange read as distancing to you? I don't see it.

Llamarble I did not vote for you since

I thought it isn't justified just yet

and I simply sounded my opinion.

Geez, this sounds several levels of terrible. It's betraying an "I'm looking for lynches" mindset, rather than the town "I'm looking for scum" mindset.

A question it is, then. What's your stance toward Llamarble?

why are you posting scumlists on page three?

Do you have a problem with that? It's not like we've been devoid of content, even if you personally feel it's worthless.

Why are scumlists anti-town?
It seems to me like they just carry information about your opinions and thus help people read you.

That's a matter of opinion. Some say that such lists help scum narrow down their NK choices; others say it doesn't really matter because scum already have an idea of who to take out.

Why are you discounting your own list because of "very little information"? We know it's only page 3.

If you ISO him, you will see there is only one post he has made so far (it's ISO-#2/Game Post-#23) where he doesn't make mention to the short amount of time.

ICEninja

: Is this your first game under the BaM ruleset?

His vote on Fernando reeks for that reason. Granted, Fernando hasn't posted but once and that does merit suspicion but not one Day 1. Lurker hunting makes no sense in a normal game Day 1 and makes about as much in a game run under BaM. If he is a true lurker preparing to flake, he'll be mod-killed. If not, it will be obvious he is trying to fly under the radar especially since everyone is already hyped to see low participation as being automatically scummy, he(Fernando) won't be able to do it for long.

What about ICEninja's case beyond FeRnAnDo's inactivity was invalid? I don't see any opportunism there; looking back at FeRnAnDo's post, I see ICEninja has a valid reason.

ICEninja

: What were your reads on the active players when you voted for FeRnAnDo?

Okay, so there's 4 people who hadn't posted more than once yet. Why pick him? Looks like bandwagoning to me.

Do you feel Netlava's action is more likely to be done as scum or as town? Bandwagoning is done by both factions.

Also, ICEninja, you might have noticed that Shattered Viewpoint also claimed he would post at least once a day, and yet you only pointed at me for stating so. Don't worry, my posts are generally long.

You went on defensive mode pretty quickly here. Why did ICEninja's vote against you feel so threatening?

Taken from post 41, Llama "I do want to hear more opinions of Zinive." I find it strange that he would single out zinive, and not mention me, or perardua. If llama dies and flips scum, zinive may be a buddy.

(Link addition is mine.)

It wasn't that strange of Llamarble to single out Zinive at that point, given the situation. You, however, singling out yourself and PerArdua is odd. Why?

And dude, links are a godsend. Use them.

Does it really matter how I came to the conclusion that Oso was antsy? I read his post, thought to myself, "Oso seems antsy" and voted Oso. His quick response on some side topic seemed, well, antsy.

[...]

As for my vote on Fernando, it's really not that critical when I decide to move it. I'll move it if the time comes.

It does matter how you came to that conclusion. A number of people had asked you why you found Oso "antsy." (By the way, timing is a null tell. Why would Oso wait, anyway?)

It is critical. FeRnAnDo has posted; your vote appeared to be to get a lurker posting, which FeRnAnDo has done. You not unvoting means that you find him scummy. An explanation is in order, then.

I recall saying something about the ICEninja-Shattered Viewpoint connection that Llamarble is drawing, but I can't find it. -_-;

Prioritizing not getting flustered over scumhunting shows a scummy focus on appearance.
The "it would distract the town" excuse is dubious, it's not like we're in a room together where only one person can talk at a time
and we were low on content anyway, so a couple of players going at it and the reactions of others to the situation would have been helpful.
Ice's sentence about watching and intending to deliver a case later sounds like he already has an opinion on Shattered's alignment.

Defense of ICEninja is a GO! Llamarble's case is founded on a whole bunch of null tells.

• Focus on appearance is scummy. Agreed on this count.
• However, ICEninja doing this is not a scum tell. One being emotional (and seriously, it's hard not to when SV is being that antagonistic)
  does
  distract town, as it makes it more difficult for them to read one, and sometimes people who are emotional start tunneling, which is dangerous. ICEninja has a legitimate reason to wait here. Null tell.
• I can see how ICEninja's statement about "watching [Shattered Viewpoint] carefully" leads to "has an opinion on Shattered's alignment." What I don't see is how that's scummy. I do this, too, and fairly often. You'd have a case if ICEninja somehow slipped that he knew SV's alignment, but that's not the case here. Null tell.

I agree that SV's vote was obnoxious, but the rest of your post regarding ICEninja screams confirmation bias.

I believe we should not focus on the lurkers to much care of the lurkers as we can't do anything about it and the ruleset is pretty strict in this regard.

While I can see not wanting to push lynches on lurkers purely on policy, I disagree that we shouldn't focus on them. This ruleset deals out very harsh punishments, and Oso makes an excellent point: People with relatively uninteresting roles (e.g., Vanilla Townie) are more likely to lose interest, and if we don't push posts from these people, we're going to get very damaging modkills.

That said, if any of you folks suddenly fancy flaking out, do us all a favor and tell us, and I will personally hunt down a replacement for your slot. This has been done before in a BaM ruleset game.

Have scum been modkilled for playing the lurking card wrong? Of course. The success percentage, however, is not something I'd gamble on.

However as I have stated I am willing to vote on shattered since I consider this kind of play as distracting for the town and thus its a playstyle (shattereds) I consider scummy.

All right, answer me this question: Do you see pro-scum motivation behind SV being as antagonistic as he's being?

[Equinox]

Well, shit. I knew this day would come. There it is, ladies and gentlemen.

MOD: Requesting a prod of PerArdua.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Zinive

I'm looking forward to reading everything Equinox has to say. If he has a significant wall to post on only 4 pages of info, there could be some really good analysis in there. I'd like to note how he random voted me on virtue of my tendency to post walls. This isn't scummy, but it is ironic.

Heh, the irony indeed.

I'm not going to summarize that wall anymore, as there isn't a need now, but... to summarize:

Zinive > FeRnAnDo > Xine > cruelty > Me=Weird > PerArdua

I believe Shattered Viewpoint is town. In Mini 1003, where he was scum, he was much more calm and "analytical," despite the lurking. In Open 233, where I replaced him as town, he displayed this sort of antagonistic behavior. I'm a little bothered that he's taken the antagonism to a different level in terms of intensity, but given his personality, I'd say he's town in this game.

The tone of Zinive's early posts bother me, and his later posts haven't done anything to dissipate that.
FeRnAnDo getting defensive over ICEninja's vote makes me wonder if he's just buckled under the pressure.
Xine's IoA post set my scumdar on fire.

[Equinox]

Equinox, did you notice my case on Net? You touched on almost every significant event, but the only thing I saw you referring to Net was a point against him. Judging by how you didn't include him on your possible scum list, I'm going to be inclined to believe that you disagreed with my case. If you disagreed, why did you not bring it up?

I saw it. I was going to wait to see if Netlava would respond further, and I see that he just did.

I have something I need to take care of first, so I'll have to put a rain check on this.

[Equinox]

Last visited: Thu Oct 21, 2010 12:51 am

PerArdua just replaced into a game on Wednesday.

WTF are you doing, PerArdua.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: PerArdua

[Equinox]

I have something I need to take care of first, so I'll have to put a rain check on [my opinion of ICEninja's case on Netlava].

Delayed until tomorrow. My energy is sapped, and I still have a paper to write.

[Equinox]

EBWOP: As a courtesy warning, I'm busy all day on Friday, so I'll only post if it's something that doesn't require rereading. If I don't finish Friday, my business will carry over to Saturday morning. Therefore, Saturday evening is the earliest you can expect the results of any promised rereads.

Luckily, my reading list for this game is short and I can deal with it tomorrow. In case other people ask me for stuff, though, be aware of the above. Thanks.

[Equinox]

Sorry about doing yet another wall. Apparently, I have regressed in more ways than one.

MOD: What is your policy on allowing players to search for replacements for flakers?

I'm thinking of Mini 1027, where Super Smash Bros. Fan personally PMed several players to replace two slots about to be modkilled.

He hadn't; I was cautioning him not to glom onto me and pursue something that, in the long run, would be unproductive.

...and you thought a vote on ICEninja would accomplish this how?

The Perardua situation is really strange.
Maybe he didn't think we'd notice he's logged in recently?
I see no reason for town to act like that.

To be fair, his post on Wednesday was from a phone, so his access on Thursday may have been similarly limited. What irks me more, though, is that he replaced into a game, which implies that he has the time to dedicate to this game. Given that we're on a BaM ruleset, there's no reason to skimp on activity here, and I'm not letting scum coast by just because the days are "too short."

In fact, most reasonable actions can have a scum motive or a town motive.

Would you elaborate on this, please?

Zinive, you don't have your vote on anyone yet you've made a few statements suggesting you suspect people. Are you waiting for an opportunistic time to vote?

Interesting question and if you mean if I would vote for them when a bandwagon starts then yes if the deadline draws close.

Three questions:

1. If there is no bandwagon, but you find the person suspicious anyway, would you vote?
2. If the deadline is not drawing close, but you find the person suspicious anyway, would you vote?
3. If there was neither bandwagon nor looming deadline, but you found the person suspicious anyway, would you vote?

I find your response to ICEninja more interesting than the question itself.

Forming quote pyramid for convenience:

I think we still don't have a good reason to start moving a bandwagon to already make a lynch but assuming the short deadline and the low amount of content we have right now I don't think your vote on me is too suspicious Llamarble.

The wording in this post really, really bothers me. Why aren't you even trying to refute Llamarble's vote? You've just validated it instead, which... really irks me.

The logic Llama used was partly one I have stated previously against him. This simply means I can understand why it appeared this way.

I'm having a little trouble wrapping my head around this. Just because Llamarble happened to use the same logic you'd used against him before doesn't necessarily make his logic correct, and if you're town, you know for a fact he's just wrong, regardless of appearances. Why did you accept Llamarble's vote just like that?

In fact, why did you feel the need to validate Llamarble at all? Simply conveying that you "understand why it appeared this way" was an unnecessary step. Smells like buddying to me.

I could vote for him based on a policy to vote for players that actively try to confuse/annoy the town.

Why would this be a policy lynch?

Me and PA were the first to people I thought of who'd barely posted. I don't get why it's odd.

Odd because the reason Llamarble singled out Zinive was not the same reason you brought up yourself and PerArdua.

I thought the pairing was strange, but your explanation seems reasonable.

---

I still have a rain check out for my commentary on ICEninja's case against Netlava and Netlava's rebuttal. I'm renewing said rain check for tomorrow, as I'd like to take care of some IRL issues now.

Re: Oso's case against Llamarble - Uninteresting. Well, it was interesting, but the points in which I was interested were refuted by Llamarble to my satisfaction. Having double standards is a null tell.

I think I've covered everything.

[Equinox]

Guys, I'm really sorry about this, but I don't have the time to catch up at the moment... I might be able to this evening, but I can't guarantee anything.

FeRnAnDo, you logged in yesterday. Stop lurking.

[Equinox]

I have limited access until Tuesday. Also, this week is a busy one overall for me, so my posting frequency will be a bit on the low side. I'll do my best to given the deadline.

I can't do any back reading or any verifications of things right now, so whatever I've promised to do, I need to delay until further notice.

Oh, and sorry about the wall.

---

@Equinox The player slot needs to request replacement for any changes to take place.

Thanks, AGar.

---

One way to analyze a play such as a making a vote or a case is to ask
"why would a scum do this" and "why would town do this"
Usually both questions have reasonable answers (hence the statement you asked me to elaborate on).
If the specifics make one answer look more believable than the other, then the statement is a tell.

That makes sense. For a moment there, I thought you were saying that each action has both town and scum motives, which sounded funny.

I believe its good to discuss as long as possible and going as close as possible to the deadline. There are exceptions however for example a major mistake, a chain of many small mistakes or a cop points out someone guilty. Having my vote on someone just for the sake of having my vote on someone seems pointless to me and could potentially help scum to end the day before it should be done.

A few things I find wrong here:

1. Days going to deadline are usually a matter of town being indecisive; it's not necessarily a good thing.
2. You go from this stance to "a major mistake" or "a chain of many small mistakes" to being enough to shorten a day. There seems to be a gap somewhere. (This is more of a theoretical observation; this contradiction doesn't point to alignment.)

I'm interested, though, in why you feel having a vote on helps scum end the day faster.

I said this already I saw no threat in this vote and his argument on this case did not seem to be made up by scum but a genuine try to scum hunt.

I'll ask this straight, then.

Why did you need to tell Llamarble this?

Based on these experience I'm willing to vote on someone for there playstyle and voting based on playstyle is policy to me.

You previously stated that he's a neutral read. Does your willingness to "policy-lynch" him mean you don't have any scum reads?

Since people want me to take a 'clearer stance' I place my vote. I don't get the argument that waiting till the deadline draws close could just remotely be twisted into something scummy as I believe more time equals more discussion but I guess it is a way to force my vote out for whatever reason.

Uh... You don't take clearer stances because people want you to. You take clearer stances because you just do. While I appreciate that you finally took a stance, you taking it because we're pressuring you to do so is scummy.

Let's look at your case, though.

Furthermore his vote was still on ICE as he said that ICE is most likely town.

Post 95 implies it was a mistake.

This observation is interesting, though, particularly given this response to a question I asked him about his vote. (I'm still waiting on that answer.)

Also, I noticed a couple of players saying my case on fernando is reasonable or what not. Does that mean you agree with it?

In a nutshell, yes.

---

Confession: I read Xine's case, Llamarble's rebuttal, and Xine's jab, but I haven't done any digging in detail. Consider this a (campaign) promise to do it later.

Also, PerArdua apparently isn't coming back.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Zinive

[Equinox]

Welcome, Antihero.

[Equinox]

I was pretty sure that Equi was scum due to her constant "more later LOL" comments. Now, not so sure. Must re-read that.

I give you permission to think the first statement if I haven't delivered by November. Right now, just be patient.

[Equinox]

Oh, fun. Post farts. Just what I needed. (I don't really mind, though.)

Equinox, are you male or female?

Female.

I could move my vote to fernando, or Netlava.

Do you disagree with our cases on Zinive? Why or why not?

Equinox, I don't get why you keep apologizing for not much time and saying more later, and then making(and being aware of it, judging my your apologies) huge wall posts.

I don't get why you felt the need to confront me about this. This game runs on short deadlines; every time I can't dedicate myself fully to this game, I feel guilty. Do you have a problem with the "huge wall posts" (besides having to read them)?

---

Preview edit:

Is it just me, or did Oso post this much earlier already?

This is mildly funny.

[Equinox]

Spam mode ACTIVATE!

This is more a note to myself. Things I need to take care of here:

• ICEninja's case against Netlava, Netlava's rebuttal
• Xine's case against Llamarble, Llamarble's rebuttal

---

Zinive:

In the event that a replacement isn't found quickly (although I have one in mind) there will be a slight deadline extension. Votecount incoming.

Antihero replaced in 26 minutes after AGar announced this. I don't think we're getting an extension.

Longer days lead to more discussion and thats good for the town. I don't get point 2 do you mean I should have added a wording that includes medium mistakes?

No, what I meant by my second point was that your statement was superfluous. The point of not ending a day is to discuss until town decides someone is scum; you went on about how long days are good, and then you say it's okay to shorten a day if scum slips. That's just stating the obvious.

...which makes your "long days and more discussion are good" fixation very interesting to me because there's a disconnect here.

Because of the possibility of reaching the needed votes.

OH YE OF LITTLE FAITH.

You always lynch scum. Always. Why the fear of scum piling on, then?

I thought I made a clear stance as I called who I thought is scum but based on the reactions that was not enough and people wanted to see my vote. That is why I repeated my suspicion towards SV and made a vote.

The whole problem was that you were quite wishy-washy about Shattered Viewpoint (the player himself, not his playing style) and about voting up until we pressured you. Even here, in this quote, you emphasize that "people wanted to see my vote" and you delivered.

Too much worry about appearances, methinks.

[Equinox]

Ugh. Sorry for disappearing. I have way too much on my plate right now.

I'm going to catch up elsewhere first and then come back to this and see what's up. Comments may not come for a few hours, though, as I'm trying to cram as much math into my head as possible for an exam.

[Equinox]

MOD: Happy birthday!

Detailed comments coming later pending completion of a midterm, response to a PM regarding rule 9, and some other backlog reading for this game.

In the meantime:

UNVOTE:

PerArdua, if you can't play, please be considerate and request replacement.

I see you logged in yesterday. I also know your phone is capable of posting on this site. AGar sent you a prod, so don't come back with a "I forgot about this game!" excuse.

[Equinox]

Please reference my earlier comments about Equinox and her procrastination.

You're the biggest hypocrite in this game if you're seriously voting me for not contributing. Also, did it never occur to you that I might, just maybe, be busy in real life?

You managed to skip the concerns about you to... vote me for one of the most stupidest reasons ever. I am NOT impressed.

All right, I said I was waiting on a response from the mod, and a response I did verily receive! I was using spoiler tags in my wall, so I wanted to make sure it flew by the rules first. Probably not necessary now that Oso has hammered (since the spoiler'd area concerns FeRnAnDo), but I'll post it anyway since I went through the trouble of writing it.

[Equinox]

one of the most stupidest

Clearly, Equinox is not an English major.

Anyway, as promised, here is my catch-up post:

I don't, however, find Shattered to be very town.

It is interesting to note this disparity:

Not quoting the rest of this, since the link is there.

ICEninja makes a really interesting point. Shattered Viewpoint did eventually back up and say that he felt ICEninja "is most likely town," yet he asserts that his vote at the time was to caution. Aside from the "case" Shattered Viewpoint made when he voted, what's interesting is Shattered Viewpoint doesn't appear to have believed ICEninja was scum, ever. If he had, he would've said as much when I questioned him.

---

After some internal debate, I've decided to not post the spoiler section, which I just blew several hours over to get the OK to post. /sigh

The reason is it's a number of comments about FeRnAnDo based on digging from Netlava's case, and with Oso's hammer, it's really not necessary. I have it saved in Drafts, so if you want some reading material, drop a note or something.

I just got home, so give me a bit to settle down, and I'll speed through my backlog and try to beat the mod to threadlock.

If I don't make it, though, know this: Look at Shattered Viewpoint, and don't let this guy try to deflect attention off himself.

[Equinox]

Probably wouldn't do any harm.

[spoiler='twas a giant waste of my time, but...]That said, I'm looking at Netlava's case:

Llamarble, a late random vote was enough to place me as the 2nd. scummiest? About Zinive's case, sure is suspicious, but wouldn't it be very silly of him to jump on a wagon that needs 4 more votes? I don't see a big deal there, yet.

It's suspicous because he joined a forming wagon too quickly, and yet not a big case because since zinive's started he has played 8-9 mafia games i don't believe he would make such a newbish move like joining a wagon on page 2 expecting 4 more votes. clear?

As Netlava pointed out, Zinive didn't wagon anybody; in fact, Zinive was the first to vote Oso, and after his unvote, he didn't make another vote until after FeRnAnDo's disappearance. That's a strange mistake to make, and it doesn't make a whole lot of sense.

...which was why I went back and looked at FeRnAnDo's post 66. Presumably, the first sentence I quoted above is a reference to Llamarble's list on page 52; Llamarble had made a case against Zinive in post 32, so we need to move back to this post:

Zinive is the

third player to go after me

. (Opportunism)
He tries to add to the reasoning against me so it looks like he's not just following the most promising lynch (Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't this a common scum technique?)
But his added reason seems very weak to me. (running into the "scum say things they don't believe" situation again)
The fact that he doesn't vote me after stating suspicion and adding a reason makes it seem like he wants to lay low and avoid looking opportunistic.
(Scum want to avoid notice while pushing the town toward false lynches; stating suspicion and not voting lies in this vein.)

3 votes = L-4

That brings us to: FeRnAnDo has not been reading the thread in detail. (I've also just realized that I wasted half an hour doing this, and we're still at the same conclusion Netlava reached in 184. Well, I'm not about delete all that work...)[/spoiler]

---

Something here piques my interest.

Necessary or not, I'd like to see what you wrote, and since

this is an ongoing game, I only feel comfertable reading it in thread

.

I don't quite understand this last part. Would you elaborate for me, please?

[Equinox]

Oh, lol.

[Equinox]

I just had a thought.

If FeRnAnDo flips town, I will be investigating everyone who made accusations of lurking well after the week of October 24. It should have been clear after AGar's prod that this was a flaking case, not a lurking case.

If FeRnAnDo flips scum, I know where to look.

---

Links and additional information were edited into this quote for my convenience.

This is more a note to myself. Things I need to take care of here:

• ICEninja's case against Netlava (82), Netlava's first rebuttal (83), Netlava's second rebuttal (109), Netlava's third rebuttal (131)
• Xine's case against Llamarble (144), Llamarble's rebuttal (174)

Just went through that. That was a waste of time. (Boo. I even went through the trouble of adding the links. Guargh.)

I found nothing interesting in there. I was all pumped up, too, and now the hype's gone.

You guys know what I think, I think, so I'm going to leave it at that. Good night.

[Equinox]

The top 2 scummiest players during day 1 were the town power roles, and the scummiest player pre-lynch was a vanilla townie. A 4th player isn't even playing. would it be unreasonable at this point to request replacement?

Yes, sir, it would, if the reason behind your wish to replace out is based purely on the game situation.

---

Going to the matter at hand...

We have a difficult decision to make here. If we mislynch today and the local flaker doesn't come back and post, we could be in endgame by Night 2.

Honestly, I don't have very much faith in seeing this one post again. Therefore, I propose that we invoke a policy lynch.

VOTE: PerArdua

This slot is a completely null one. Could we do better with lynching a scum read? Perhaps... but look what that's gotten us. Today is the last day we can do this. If PerArdua flips scum, then we've hit a pretty big prize; if PerArdua flips town, we've just averted disaster.

I don't suggest immediately lynching him, as we've got a number of things on today's agenda (FeRnAnDo wagon, ICEninja, Oso, etc.) and I'd like to give PerArdua a chance to redeem himself, but if it's clear he's not coming back and that he's not getting replaced, we need to lynch PerArdua today.

I will take a look at Day 1 when I come home later tonight.

---

Immediate thoughts on what's happened so far:

I still believe ICEninja is town. I don't like your sudden defeatism, though; the situation is bad, but it can be remedied.

I like where Antihero is going.

[Equinox]

Dammit, guys, don't infect me with your apathy.

[Equinox]

I still haven't read. >_>

BUT! I promise (and I don't break promises ) that I shall get it done later this evening, and you guys are top priority. I love you guys, even if it's unrequited... :sniff:

I have a number of things I'd like to look at in Day 1 that also concerns the cases brought forth today, so sit tight.

For right now:

I'm a bit miffed that you guys just glossed over my case for a PerArdua lynch today. The point that someone brought up that it gives the mafia an extra kill somewhat makes sense... but only if we lynch correctly today. Otherwise, we're pretty fucked if AGar's running a 3:9 or even a 2:1:9. (I'm not too sure about 2:2:8, as that's much more swingy and statistically less probable.)

But... I guess I'll decide after I read and get my bearings. Yeah.

Anyway, on to things that make much more sense.

If he's picking up the prods and not posting, that = epic superscumfail.

I don't think scum lurk THAT hard; even lurker Zorblag-scum posted at least once a day until RL made him forget (Open 233).

To take a speculatory stab, I suspect that PerArdua picked up the Day 1 prod, since he logged in after AGar sent it, IIRC. I'm sure he hasn't picked up the Day 2 reminder, though, as he hasn't logged on since October 27.

Basically, I accuse him of setting an atmosphere where its urgent that a lynch take place and that I can see scum using it to go after low activity players. And that is exactly what I see happening because at that point his vote is on, you guessed it, Fernando.

How was ICEninja cultivating this kind of atmosphere? The way I read his posts was a push for more activity, not less; he merely emphasized the need to generate content as much as possible given short deadlines, and he's never pushed for a quick lynch. Your points here against ICEninja do not hold water.

...and I honestly don't see how Oso goes from Step 1 to "OMG ICEninja played me like a fiddle RAGE." Gaps in logic detected!

Latter half of post concerns FeRnAnDo wagon, which I have promised to do later. Skipping for right now.

Second post won't be coming. What I thought as as a second obvious scum may not be that at all. Got excited I might have caught two for one, need to think on it some.

Well, then, please present the thought process that you had at the time.

Sure, the odds aren't great, but it's all the more glory if we somehow manage to win.
I hope the other town players will take a similar attitude, since we'll all have more fun (it is a game after all) and a much better chance of winning.

Right. This makes me want to replace out even more.

Dude. Don't fall for that. If you're town, and I believe you are, you know you're right; don't let a case like this one pull you down.

At least if you won't try for the game, try for me and the others who believe in you? :\

Me=Weird sees the light, it seems. Hoping to hear his thoughts after he's looked stuff over.

Splitting this off, as I have a couple of things that need extra special attention.

[Equinox]

Okay. Let's do this in order of priority.

OMG IT'S NETOPALIS. Welcome back, sir!

based on place on these wagons, I'm gonna say
VOTE: Antihero

Xine, I would be *very interested* in your reasoning.

If my wall just now is any indication, I dislike the lengths to which Oso is pushing ICEninja. Seen scum do that before. I remember noting his behavior WRT the hammer during twilight, so I'll take a closer look at that and see if it's worth moving off my super awesome policy lynch.

Preview edit: I think I like Antihero more than his predecessor.

[Equinox]

Side note: I hope you really don't believe any of this above post.

I don't. Not even the promise part!

...or do I? >_>

OK, seriously. I wrote that after reading ICEninja go "I only care enough for a quick glance." Definitely uplifting. :<

[Equinox]

Our odds of either PerArdua or (preferably and) whoever we decide to lynch are the same regardless if he is mod killed or not, but we're denying a night kill by allowing the mod kill. The only argument for killing him today is the pool for who we lynch tomorrow is smaller.

My experience with BaM games have been that the modkills occur at the end of the day following the lynch, and the game still goes into night. The scum get to kill, regardless.

...and your post just had me thinking. Initially, what I'd planned was a lynch of PerArdua today and then whatever lynch tomorrow, but you're right. Doing this will give scum an extra NK.

Yeah, I suck. lol

Unvote, Vote: Oso

L-2

[Equinox]

EBWOP: And I fail at editing, too. That first part was unnecessary. e_e

[Equinox]

Triple-posting to ask:

This claim therefore doesn't reduce my suspicion of Zinive (actually increases it by Bayes' rule, since a scum in his position would probably claim a PR whereas a town player has a smaller chance of doing so), but

because lynching PRs is bad it does make Fernando look like a better lynch

.

I realize that, at this point, you firmly believed in a FeRnAnDo-Zinive scum team. ...but why did you say, "because lynching PRs is bad"?

[Equinox]

No. I'm trying to figure out if Llamarble knew something about Zinive that we didn't; the wording in that paragraph was odd.

Post 262 is confusing me right now.

[Equinox]

Oh, Xine, before you go:

Post 195, you voted for FeRnAnDo "because he's scum," and you sounded pretty certain. How did you come to this conclusion?

[Equinox]

Granted, general thread trust in me at the moment is pretty low but I do promise if it gets to where I have to claim, I'll happily answer that and the bolded in my above post.

Why not now, before you forget?

[Equinox]

I totally forgot about that. >_<

You are really upset about this vote. I made a gut move, based on the imression I got from viewing some data. you only need to fear this if you are guilty, right?

And you didn't address Antihero's concern about said data and your conclusions...

Well, if this is a "gut move," there's got to be some basis for it. I'd like to hear about that.

[Equinox]

Granted, general thread trust in me at the moment is pretty low but I do promise if it gets to where I have to claim, I'll happily answer that and the bolded in my above post.

Why not now, before you forget?

[Equinox]

Well, guys, if you ever need a lesson on how to dodge questions, 277 is the way to go.

[Equinox]

Deadline is on Friday. The Oso wagon needs some lovin'.

I had some observations written up yesterday, but it seems I didn't post it. Bah. I'll rewrite it later. In a nutshell, though, lynch Oso. Look at his behavior toward the FeRnAnDo lynch and then look at how he uses that behavior to defend himself. If that hasn't convinced you, look at his behavior today. He's been called out on a flimsy case, but he's done nothing to rectify it or reassess. I also highly doubt Oso ever had a "second suspect," since he's been unable to properly answer my demands.

Hoping to hear from Netopalis when he's read the thread in more detail. In any case, Netopalis, I'm interested in hearing more about your sixth point:

6) Refusing to criticize a wagon which he started

Why is it more likely that scum would do this than town?

Iceninja, Netopalis' case isn't faked (though I don't agree with it).

...how did you go from "This case is weaksauce" to "This case is fakesauce"? >_>

[Equinox]

@_@

[Equinox]

Congratulations, Oso! Wishing you the best!

A case can be weak, but that doesn't necessarily point to the deliverer of it being scum.

A faked one does though, so that's what I'm more concerned with.

Not what I asked. I was wondering how you interpreted ICEninja's post to mean that he was accusing Netopalis of making a fake case.

I'll support an Oso lynch in a deadline situation....But I'd really like to hear from more players.

Only in a deadline situation? What do you think of the cases against Oso so far?

[Equinox]

Welcome, chesskid3!

Ok first of all, when I saw the flips, I figured Shattered was the scum kill, and the JK was the vig shot.

And now he's telling the vig not to shoot.

Beautiful demonstration of a "misrepresentation," sir. A+

---

The rest of the exchange is and a very enjoyable read to top off a wonderful day on mafiascum.net.

chesskid3 has already claimed. This thread needs a hammer.

Though I won't complain if you guys would rather watch chesskid3 flail some more. His posts are most amusing.

[Equinox]

Oh, wait. I misread the second quote as "And now he's telling the vig to shoot." Equinox is fail.

BUT HE'S STILL SCUM.

[Equinox]

Guys, I'm actually SHAKING with excitement. We can crack this game open!

If chesskid3 is not screwing with us, he's accidentally let slip that there's 3 scum and that PerArdua is town. This is either a 3:9 or 3:1:8; right now, I don't want to miss threadlock by crunching balance numbers.

Vig should shoot, IMO. If the vig shoots incorrectly, we'll be in LyLo tomorrow. If the vig does not shoot at all, we'll be in MyLo, and scum will have the advantage in that situation. If the vig shoots, the game will be on our terms, not theirs.

If I'm doing this right, I've gotten this narrowed down to Me=Weird and Xine. Day 1 + PoE is a go. I'll write up reasoning as soon as I've gotten this posted. I personally request a shot on either one.

[Equinox]

Actually, screw the number crunching. I'm pretty sure this is 3:9.

As I pointed out previously, Xine basically went from "FeRnAnDo, this is suspicious" to "FeRnAnDo is scum" without really explaining why, yet when I asked her, she said she wasn't. Xine's isolated thingamabob reveals she had Llamarble as her top suspect, even after his rebuttals, until the FeRnAnDo wagon built steam. On Day 2, she jumps right past Oso to Antihero, and she ignored Antihero's response. This one is scum. Please shoot. If you don't shoot, please lynch.

Okay, I had Me=Weird down as scummy after looking at the FeRnAnDo stuff, and then I looked at his isolated posts and realized the thing I thought was a scum tell actually isn't. Which means I have too many town reads. >_________< ARGH.

I need to parse this stuff again. I don't know how much gas I've got left, seeing as it's 2 AM. Going to give this a shot anyway.

[Equinox]

MyLo.

I'd like to lynch today. Discuss.

MOD: If someone doesn't submit a night action, do you send any reminders before deadline hits?

Thoughts will follow response to this question.

[Equinox]

Thread needs moar Netopalis.

3.Scum seemed less likely to hammer, slightly. I presented a vote count, I made a gut read based on presentation, invited the town to consider said information with me, and I think the question I presented help you put the pieces together while I disappeared into RL for a few days

I have question about that case you made against Antihero. Did you read 253 before disappearing?

I do think we should claim earlier than normal since if the scum have some kind of quicklynch signal players can get quicklynched from L-2 (assumes 2 scum are left) to end the game. That said I don't think you should claim at L - 3 unless a enough players to lynch you have expressed readiness to vote.

I've got a question for you, Llamarble. How confident are you in your read of Xine?

---

Okay. AGar's response has reconciled the contradicting thoughts I had this morning. In the interest of getting something else done, however, I won't reveal what those thoughts were until we're done with this:

I propose a mass claim.

I feel that if I explain, I will ruin this, so please bear with me until it's over.

Popcorn style would be good, and if at all possible, I want this to start with Llamarble.

[Equinox]

It sounds like everyone RCing only helps us if we have a vig who can shoot tonight.
So maybe we should say "Any vig with a shot left should claim"
And if nobody does then we no-lynch?

If the vig is one-shot, I would think s/he would have claimed by now to give us an extra clear.

I strongly object to No Lynch today. You're going to be playing into scum's hands if you do that.

[Equinox]

Yes, there are reasons for the mass claim and for the method I am proposing. I've also stated that I am not going to elaborate on those reasons until it's over. Just carry on with it, please. The molasses thing gets old pretty quickly.

I saw Netopalis log in yesterday afternoon, and his profile says he's logged on this morning, too. He hasn't posted in either of his games. Don't know about Me=Weird, who hasn't posted since Friday.

[Equinox]

I was sitting here waiting for the molasses to move.

I suppose there's no point in keeping shut anymore, though. If Netopalis wants to counterclaim, he can counter; you guys aren't getting a counter from me. The reason I asked for a mass claim was the lack of a shot, which made me wonder if Xine was the vig who missed Night 2. I believe Llamarble's claim.

Does anybody have anything remotely decent other than Xine? Town seems moderately united here.

I thought about that this morning. There's no other answer. I have a strong town read on you and a town read on Me=Weird; therefore, it boils down to {Netopalis, Xine}. Xine's the stronger scum read of the two, and she hasn't convinced me otherwise with her claim or her posts today.

Actually... let's just get on with it.

VOTE: Xine L-2

[Equinox]

I ended up channeling von Karma reading post 392.

Oso doesn't even mention Equinox in any substantive message for any of his page 1 ISO posts. He's similarly light on Xine.

If my memory serves me correctly, Oso ignored more people than that. I don't particularly care to check.

Equinox seems a bit wishy-washy coming into the game, then lays heavily into Oso, but only after other players have attacked him.

Eh? I was wishy-washy? Maybe you're thinking of the wrong game, sir.

I do, however, agree that I laid it thick on Oso after everyone else; that was happenstance. At the time, I put much higher priority on

doing the vig's job of damage control

lynching PerArdua first, until I realized that I'd screwed up my calculations and it didn't really matter. By then, Oso made himself plain as day.

To add to Netopolis' latest, Equinox specifically wondered whether Xine was a night 2-missing vig.
I don't see why she would think the person she found scummiest more likely to be a town PR than anyone else.

In the past, I've lynched scummy people who flipped PR. That experience has made me do double-takes on things.

I thought it was Xine because she was not online at all after November 1, and my fear was that real life had kept her away from the game and she might have missed submitting an action. That's why I asked AGar to confirm whether or not he alerted people prior to deadline.

[Equinox]

Sorry, all. Got unexpectedly busy.

V/LA until November 13

; I don't think I owe a catch-up here.

[Equinox]

...man, I have some awful timing. That was a hammer. This V/LA won't affect this game at all. Let me get some thoughts together.

If Xine's town as she claims, well, we just got boned. Doubtful, though.

If not:

I agree with Llamarble here that the best option for the second MyLo is to No Lynch, but that is one situation where I definitely would advocate for getting some discussion done before ending the day. I'm not in a good position right now to examine Llamarble's points more closely... I hope it's not a huge problem if I say I'll have in-depth stuff once my V/LA is over.

I guess the kissing is done more fiercely now and with tires.

I lol'd at this line.

[Equinox]

Quick comments:

1. I'm fine with posting the QuickTopic if Me=Weird and Oso are okay with it; chesskid3 didn't post in there.
2. Netopalis, since you're the one who caught me in the end: Do you have any words on how I can improve? (Everyone else, you're welcome to answer this as well.)
   
3. Shattered Viewpoint, was your accusation of procrastination a general scum tell or an Equinox-specific scum tell?
4. I'm interested in hearing the town's side regarding this particular MyLo we were in. Would you have lynched, and would you have called for a mass-claim as I did?

I really have nothing to say that could be convincing, other then to repeat my claim. I would like to see the game not end today, so I would hope to not be lynched.

The single most convincing thing that would back up a vanilla townie claim is scum hunting. You spent almost all of your time defending on Day 3, which hurt your chances of surviving; your case on Day 2 was torn apart when you missed answering my and Antihero's concerns about your vote analysis. You also tended toward posting IoA-type posts on Day 1, which made it look like you weren't contributing. If you can't post analysis, be upfront and say you can't.

[Equinox]

Oso brought it up. I went through with it because I didn't want to kill off all the obvtown too early, lest this happens:

Equinox and Ice are suspicious for not being dead when they looked the most town coming into today

[Equinox]

Were there any other aspects of my play I should improve on?

Be careful with the breadcrumbing/softclaiming. There were a couple of things you said prior to the mass claim that made me guess you were the vigilante (though I didn't expect the one-shot).

---

I have to agree with Oso that the thing that shot town was the apathy. For all of Day 3, I was banking on ICEninja, Llamarble, or Netopalis not re-reading the game and then catching some of the hesitation in my play. Only Netopalis re-read, and by then it was pretty much sealed.

Because of this game, I may consider using the BaM ruleset in the future... Even as scum, I really hated the fact that those two had logged on but didn't bother to participate or make even a one-liner stating, "Hey, I don't want to play anymore; replace me."

Me=Weird, you really coasted under the radar. I have to admit that I wasn't confident you'd make it, hence sending you to do the dirty work all the time; I feared someone would accuse you of lurking, yet nobody considered it at all.

AGar, thanks for modding. Everyone, thanks for a good game, and I hope to play with you again in the future!