StrangerCoug's Worst Nightmare IIIS: The Dungeon (Game over)

[Espeonage]

Haven't thought about it tbh. I reckon the PRs should come under scrutiny. It wouldn't make too much sense for scum to not have a post restriction.

[Twomz]

When the aliens have come and we're all slaves to their alien evil, will the world ever know how hard I tried?

BE's post seems lacking for someone who's being wagoned so hard. If we had lynched LLD we wouldn't have lynched BS? How is that even relevant?

Incorrect flips would be bastard moddery to me... so I suppose it's possible. It also appears as if the scum can mask their kill (at least for now, they don't have much of a track record right now). But the flips are what we have to go on now /sigh.

I suggest we wait for everyone to post before running up BE/someone else.

[BrookylnConstruction]

Yo... so why am i still the best lynch for today?

Yo... might I add that if we had lynched the claimed VT.... WE WOULDN'T HAVE LYNCHED THE COP!

slightly hypocritical of me to say, but still... the town sucks here -.-

Vote: Tasky

-gives off major scum vibes to me.

Try reading the thread next time. I asked the mod if the lynch yesterday was caused by a miscount of the votes. This was confirmed. Tasky was not at fault for the lynch.

Yo, that's not why i'm voting him.

xvart, please stop failing and read the thread.

Yo... so why am i still the best lynch for today?

I don't know, why was BS the best lynch for yesterday?

Yo... might I add that if we had lynched the claimed VT.... WE WOULDN'T HAVE LYNCHED THE COP!

Yo... might I add YOU WERE ON THE WAGON!

Yo, because it was a lynch. I know i was on the wagon, but i would have MUCH rather lynched the claimed VT.

Haven't thought about it tbh. I reckon the PRs should come under scrutiny. It wouldn't make too much sense for scum to not have a post restriction.

Espeonage is scum.

BE's post seems lacking for someone who's being wagoned so hard. If we had lynched LLD we wouldn't have lynched BS? How is that even relevant?

Several people BITCHED about not wanting to lynch a claimed VT which is A HORRIBLE REASON TO STOP A WAGON! REGARDLESS OF HOW EARLY IT IS IN THE DAY! I was just saying that if we had lynched the VT, there would be no need to complain about a Cop death day 1.

[Tasky]

I'd prefer if we do not lynch Blooderection today, there is something I have to check.
So, please, let us look elsewhere for today and not lynch him today.
We can lynch him tomorrow, but if my theory is right, he should die anyway tonight, so no need to waste our lynch on him.

I have a good reason for this. can't tell you, obviously.
N.B.: I am in no way suggesting that BE is town, nor have I any reason for not wanting his lynch tomorrow or later.

[Parama]

If you have a reason not to lynch BE today, you should claim why. Otherwise I am ignoring you.

[xvart]

xvart, night happened.

Yes, that tends to happen; but I don't see anyone claiming some damning results on BE to indicate he performed the kill or got investigated sooooo it would appear to me that the current evidence is exactly the same as yesterday pre lynch, so why wasn't BE the alternative wagon when everyone decided to not lynch a claimed VT day one?

---

Since the BE case seemed to be too complex to explain in simple terms by anyone that was online and rapid posting, I went back and searched for the justifications for the people on the BE wagon at the end of day yesterday: Parama, Antihero, Framm18. I figured this would be a good starting point, since no evidence has been brought forth today that contributes as "additional" evidence to BE being scum. With all the frantic hopping on the BE wagon today, it makes me wonder why he wasn't lynched yesterday instead, since his case today is exactly what it was yesterday.

Parama

believes BE to be scum because of the wagon hop to LL (201). While not part of the original case, Parama did note that BE's vote on Baby Spice was a bus (274), that it is impossible for BE and BS to not be scum. Well, we know Baby Spices alignment, so pardon me while I disregard all of your alleged "scumhunting" and strong "case building" this game.

Antihero

believes BE to be scum because of his "Your vote relies on Espeonage being scum, which I don't think is the case (given NC's comments on him). Either that, or it relies on the premise of "lynch LLD because she claimed VT," which is a pretty flimsy argument to me." This is very intriguing because I don't see the implicit connection between his voting LL and his Espeonage comments, other than he comments on Espeonage's unvote and then votes in sequential order.

And then there is

Framm

, in his second post of the game (post 214)votes BE because he is aggressive and also for the VT claim.

Now if the case on BE happens to be so much more obvious than this weaksauce case someone is going to at least need to hint at a direction for me to find it. The fact that I've asked multiple times of people that are currently voting for BE is astounding, considering the case as I have found is hardly complex and can be summarized in one sentence. If I'm missing something, please, for the love of all that is holy, enlighten me.

I will say this once:

The fact that BE was for the LL lynch after her VT claim is a town tell in my book.

---

BE

- can you explain post 176?

Parama

(post 186) - I don't understand this post. Town claiming VT or scum fakeclaiming? Talk about a false dichotomy, as proven by the lynch flip. What was your intention with this post?

Parama

(post 284) - I agree with The Stove. What you are doing is not scumhunting. You are emulating a recognizable playstyle and making some passing comments. Unless you think that your vote of BE because he voted for LL after claiming VT qualifies as "scumhunting." Let me just tell you how thrilled I am that I am going to have to ask and demand and beg for explanations of read changes just like I do with Elli and Drippereth.

I'm thinking

Parama

is the SK.

While xvart's idea of exculsively lynching people with PRs is a bad one, I'm willing to bet there is scum among people with PRs (yes, I looked at your math, chesskid; while I do not doubt your skills as a mathematician, I disagree with your conclusion). Personally, my pick for post-restricted scum is manho.

So my idea to scumhunt from a pool of three people is a bad idea, yet you think there is scum inside that pool of three?

Google Translate made me sound arrogant, when all I actually said was that I was majoring in mathematics.
I also never said he could not be scum in people with pr, but treat it as nothing to say, otherwise it is likely to result in a misslynch down the road.

Finally, to avoid a quicklynch (since it is such as L-2 or something already)

Unvote [/ b]

Blue part translated to MS Terms:

"I am going to remove my vote and say it is to avoid a quick lynch, even though me and my partner (should he/she exist) would never draw attention to ourselves by quick lynching BE because we are already down three teammates on day 2, while the real reason is because xvart has made such a stink about the wagon and nobody can really explain why it is such a solid wagon, and since xvart has rightfully accused me of being scum, when BE flips town I'll be dead tomorrow."

xvart.

[The Stove]

Again, what's the case on BE? I've read BE's ISO, read the pages before the lynch; I'm just not seeing what happened since the day start that suggests BE is scum that would not have been obvious yesterday and BE been the lynch yesterday.

xvart.

Lol@ trying to save your brohan. The case is outlined. Go read the thread.

Also, what's the case on CK3? Oh, you're just scum looking for an easy push on a PR based on math. How about this: Scumhunting > Math.

BAM.

QED.

[chesskid3]

I'm thinking

Parama

is the SK.

...
...
...

I'm thinking

Xvart

is the SK.

Fissa Che Per Te

Finally, to avoid a quicklynch (since it is such as L-2 or something already)

Unvote

Blue part translated to MS Terms:

"I am going to remove my vote and say it is to avoid a quick lynch, ............lamento si lamentano cagna lamento grido."

>Che implica L-2 1 giorno in pagina 2 è una buona idea.

[chesskid3]

QED.

[Parama]

I'm thinking

Parama

is the SK.

I wouldn't be putting any effort into this game if I was the SK, just sayin'

And obviously I need to write walls to justify each of my town reads NO.

[Tasky]

If you have a reason not to lynch BE today, you should claim why. Otherwise I am ignoring you.

No, I am not telling. it would give scum information they should not have.
If you want BE dead, you trust me. just go on and lynch your second scum-pick. if my theory is right BE should die next night anyway. if my theory is wrong, you can lynch him tomorrow.

everything you need to know is that I have a serious reason for this and that reason is connected to my role.

[Tasky]

@mod, little curiosity: what does "disemboweled" mean? English is not my native language.

[Parama]

My #2 scum pick hasn't posted since they replaced in. And what you are telling us is not enough to make me change my mind.

Parama

believes BE to be scum because of the wagon hop to LL (201). While not part of the original case, Parama did note that BE's vote on Baby Spice was a bus (274), that it is impossible for BE and BS to not be scum. Well, we know Baby Spices alignment, so pardon me while I disregard all of your alleged "scumhunting" and strong "case building" this game.

I was wrong on 1 and right on two, but being wrong on one lets you discredit all my other reads? Lolno.

Parama

(post 186) - I don't understand this post. Town claiming VT or scum fakeclaiming? Talk about a false dichotomy, as proven by the lynch flip. What was your intention with this post?

You can't read, obviously. It was a hypothetical question: Say player A is scummy, and player B is scummier. Both are pushed up to claim. Player A is a townie and he claims townie. Player B is scum and claims a power role. Wouldn't you rather lynch the fakeclaiming scum over the townie?

Parama

(post 284) - I agree with The Stove. What you are doing is not scumhunting. You are emulating a recognizable playstyle and making some passing comments. Unless you think that your vote of BE because he voted for LL after claiming VT qualifies as "scumhunting." Let me just tell you how thrilled I am that I am going to have to ask and demand and beg for explanations of read changes just like I do with Elli and Drippereth.

I justified all my scum reads IIRC. I don't need to justify town or null reads because I don't want to lynch someone I don't have a scum read on.

I'm thinking

Parama

is the SK.

>SK theory starts being discussed
>xvart attacks one of the players who started the discussion of SK theory
>xvart is grasping at straws

[Parama]

Lady Lambdadelta (9):

Mafuyu

, Parama, Espeonage, Me=Weird, Antihero, Twomz, Reckamonic,

Nobody Special

, chesskid3, (

Nero Cain

)

Hmm.... There's 1 more scum max on this wagon, I'd think.

[manho]

While xvart is annoyingly misguided about BE, I'm getting a townread on him.

While xvart's idea of exculsively lynching people with PRs is a bad one, I'm willing to bet there is scum among people with PRs (yes, I looked at your math, chesskid; while I do not doubt your skills as a mathematician, I disagree with your conclusion). Personally, my pick for post-restricted scum is manho. Let's go back to his post yesterday:

why is Baby Spice still alive. he's the most obvscum i've seen.
BE's vote on LLD is not a scum tell to me, as i always thought that lynching a claimed VT is standard procedure.
LLD is town for the reaction to the his own lynch.
Tasky is scum for unwilling to read and scumhunt.
M=W is scum for doing nothing but pushing the well-established wagon on LLD and BS.
someone do an ISO on Twomz will find that if you remove the PR-first liner, he has no content at all. so he's scum also.
parama is town. and i will think the stove is town if not agar did the great job in the original SWNIII as scum.
other is a no read or no time to read for now.

VOTE: Baby Spice

First off, he got Baby Spice's gender wrong, so I'm willing to bet he didn't look at her posts very closely.
He makes sure to specifically counter the point that BE's LLD wagon hop is perfectly OK (calling it "standard procedure," whatever that means).
He piles on to the people attacking Tasky without adding anything ... how original.
The M=W point doesn't make any sense at all, and looks like a bunch of spaghetti flinging. Not to mention the "pushing the wagon on BS" point is hypocritical.
Yeah, yeah, yeah... buddy up to parama so he doesn't publicly exhibit you on his list as scum.

1. i usually use he for everyone.
2. yeah i was defending BE for that vote.
3. yeah, as tasky is scum.
4. i don't know, maybe that's from gut feeling, but i just think that is scummy. and pushing a wagon with (seemingly) valid is different from putting down the last few votes.
5. parama's list is proven wrong, by the flips. but the behaviour is still town.

[Tasky]

Lady Lambdadelta (9):

Mafuyu

, Parama, Espeonage, Me=Weird, Antihero, Twomz, Reckamonic,

Nobody Special

, chesskid3, (

Nero Cain

)

Hmm.... There's 1 more scum max on this wagon, I'd think.

do you think there are 5 scum?

@mod, could we have a votecount please?

[manho]

Uh, no.
Supponiamo che ci siano 20 giocatori, 5 feccia, con 3 PR assegnati casualmente. Il numero atteso di feccia con PRS è (3) (1 / 4) = 0,75.
Le probabilità sono: 0 PR feccia: 15 * 14 * 13 / (20 * 19 * 18) = 40%
1 feccia PR: 5 * (15 * 14 / 2) / (20 * 19 * 18 / 6) = 45%
2 PR feccia: (5 * 4 / 2) (15) / (20 * 19 * 18 / 6) = 13%
3 PR feccia: (5 * 4 * 3) / (20 * 19 * 18) = 1%

Ora che sappiamo che tre sono morti feccia senza PR, e un morto PR, abbiamo:
16 giocatori, 2 feccia, 2 PR assegnati in modo casuale:
Numero previsto di feccia con PRS è (2) (2 / 16) = 0,25
Le probabilità sono: 0 PR feccia: (14 * 13 / (16 * 15)) = 76%
1 feccia PR: (2 * 14) / (16 * 15 / 2) = 23%
2 feccia PR: (2 * 1) / (16 * 15) = 1%

Succhiarlo.
Sono un grande matematico. So come funziona probabilità.

you major in maths too? then i think the PRs are not randomly assigned. SC just gave PR to maths students.
so let's have maths now.

i think we should do the probability on [no scum with PR] given that [3 scums flipped with no PR and 1 PR flipped town]

assumption:
1. PR are randomly assigned.
2. the flips are correct.
3. there are only me and chesskid being the alive PRs.
4. there are 5 scums in 20 players.

P[(no scum with PR)|(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[(no scum with PR) and (3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)] / P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]

first we calculate
P[(no scum with PR) and (3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[(no scum with PR)] <------- since (no scum with PR) implies (3 scums flipped no PR) and (1 PR flipped town)
= (15*14*13)/(20*19*18)
= 0.399

then we calculate
P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[0 or 1 or 2 scums have PR]
= (15*14*13)/(20*19*18) + 3*(15*14*5)/(20*19*18) + 3*(15*5*4)/(20*19*18)
=0.991

so we have
P[(no scum with PR)|(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
=0.399/0.991
=0.403

so there is still a high chance that one of me/chesskid is scum.

intuitively, a flipped PR not being scum only remove the chance that there are 3 scums with PR, but that's too small to compensate the more than half chance that there is at least one scum with PR.

[Tasky]

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[0 or 1 or 2 scums have PR]

could you explain this step? thanks.

[manho]

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[0 or 1 or 2 scums have PR]

could you explain this step? thanks.

Spoiler: More maths here

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)] is talking about the probability that, after a random assignment of PRs, we still have 3 scums with no PR and 1 town with PR. it has nothing to do with the chance that we got 3 scums killed in a row. the only distribution that is removed after the flips is that all 3 PRs are scums, so the required probability is the chance that there are 0, 1, or 2 scums with PR, under random assignment of PRs.

hope it helps.

[Tasky]

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[0 or 1 or 2 scums have PR]

could you explain this step? thanks.

Spoiler: More maths here

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)] is talking about the probability that, after a random assignment of PRs, we still have 3 scums with no PR and 1 town with PR. it has nothing to do with the chance that we got 3 scums killed in a row. the only distribution that is removed after the flips is that all 3 PRs are scums, so the required probability is the chance that there are 0, 1, or 2 scums with PR, under random assignment of PRs.

hope it helps.

I think you got it wrong there.

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
=P[(0 scums have PR)]+P[(1 scum has PR and he does not flip)]+P[(2 scums have PR and none of them flips)]
= (15*14*13)/(20*19*18) + 3*(15*14*5)/(20*19*18)*(4/10) + 3*(15*5*4)/(20*19*18)*(1/10)
<------- (4/10), (1/10) are the probability that if I choose 3 scums, none of them has a PR with 1 and 2 PR's in the scum group respectively. (4=C(4,3), 1=C(3,3), 10=C(5,3))
=0.596

therefore

P[(no scum with PR)|(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= 0.399/0.596
= 0.669

[smargaret]

Tasky, I have reasons relating to my role why BE should be the lynch today.

Also, the PRs were not assigned based on math majoring, because that's what I finished college with (algebra, not stats, and I'm not up for discussing math in Italian).

[Antihero]

The fact that BE was for the LL lynch after her VT claim is a town tell in my book.

Well, your book is a lot different from my book.

1. PR are randomly assigned.

Well, there's an easy way to find out.

StrangerCoug: Can you tell us if the PRs are assigned randomly?

3. there are only me and chesskid being the alive PRs.

You missed Twomz.

You remember when I said I thought manho was scum? Yeah, that was all a dream. I'm actually reconsidering my opinion of chesskid and he's looking quite scummy (playing the VI card for scumBE, active lurking now w/ the math, the LLD wagon hop).

[Tasky]

Tasky, I have reasons relating to my role why BE should be the lynch today.

the point is, if I am right, he will die anyway tonight. wouldn't that be ok for you? it would be a waste to lynch him if we could lynch someone else since BE dies anyway.
and I absolutely need to know whether I am right or not.

3. there are only me and chesskid being the alive PRs.

You missed Twomz.

lulz. so basically the whole math has to be done again.

[Twomz]

You can't hide forever! And if you can, then I'll wait forever!

No, you don't have to redo the math, the math is retarded and pointless. The fact that there was a 'post restricted cop' flip means that either there is a 'post restricted mafia' role or there isn't... 50% either way. If there is more than one scum PR, then it will become apparent as the game progresses... this whole 'lynch PR players instead of scum hunting' trend is retarded...

In fact,

vote: xvart; FoS: Anyone else who even considered it

.

[BrookylnConstruction]

---

BE

- can you explain post 176?

OH MY FUCK! THIS ISN'T A HARD CONCEPT! CLAIMING VT IS SUCH AN EASY CLAIM FOR SCUM TO DO UNLESS IT IS A VANILLA-LESS GAME.... WHICH THIS ONE ISN'T. IT'S BETTER TO LYNCH SOMEONE THAT IS CLAIMING VT THEN TO DERAIL THAT LYNCH BASED ON A VANILLA CLAIM (UNLESS THE OTHER PLAYER PRETTY MUCH CLAIMED SCUM. HOW COME YOU PEOPLE CAN'T SEE THIS!