StrangerCoug's Worst Nightmare IIIS: The Dungeon (Game over)
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Twomz Cliqued On
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Okay, I know what you're gonna say, but I think there's something seriously wrong about this whole surprise field trip thing.
@ Tasky: It's all good if you poisoned him or something, but the only way we can be sure of alignment/flip is by lynching (I don't really trust 2 of the 3 mafia flips), if you have a delayed vig... targeting the number 2 lynch candidate is kinda a silly move.
"It's not a logical inconsistency. B can't be correct because then C would be, but it doesn't go the other way - there's nothing wrong with C being correct. Aside from Twomz saying otherwise." --Mith-
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chesskid3 Survivor
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manho Mafia Scum
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Tasky wrote:
I think you got it wrong there.manho wrote:Tasky wrote:
could you explain this step? thanks.manho wrote:
P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[0 or 1 or 2 scums have PR]Spoiler: More maths here
P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
=P[(0 scums have PR)]+P[(1 scum has PR and he does not flip)]+P[(2 scums have PR and none of them flips)]
= (15*14*13)/(20*19*18) + 3*(15*14*5)/(20*19*18)*(4/10) + 3*(15*5*4)/(20*19*18)*(1/10)
<------- (4/10), (1/10) are the probability that if I choose 3 scums, none of them has a PR with 1 and 2 PR's in the scum group respectively. (4=C(4,3), 1=C(3,3), 10=C(5,3))
=0.596
therefore
P[(no scum with PR)|(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= 0.399/0.596
= 0.669
it seems that we don't need maths anymore, as PR are not randomly assigned. but i still want to say that
the factor (4/10) and (1/10) are not needed.-
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manho Mafia Scum
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smargaret Mafia Scum
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smargaret Mafia Scum
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chesskid3 Survivor
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Framm 18 Goon
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I am here. I have been busy, but I have been trying to read through the thread.
I am trying to figure out why people were so interested in something that has nothing to do with trying to find scum???
Honestly, I am not sure of who to vote for.
My two biggest gut reads are...
BE - As I have said, he was aggressive, but in a bad way. Almost like he was trying to appear town, by defending a townie.
&
Espy - He has posted nearly two pages worth of stuff, and in my opinion has said very little in terms of scumhunting. (says the hypocrite, who has posted almost nothing.)
Odd thing is, I don't think that both of them are scum together, based on their interaction. But I feel llike I am behind the eight-ball in terms of trying to catch up with this game. Miss one or two days and you miss alot.-
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Reckamonic Goon
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Toon Fighter Mafia Scum
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Tasky Mafia Scum
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why do you think that lynchs will flip correctly if you assume that wrong flips are possible?Twomz wrote:Okay, I know what you're gonna say, but I think there's something seriously wrong about this whole surprise field trip thing.
@ Tasky: It's all good if you poisoned him or something, but the only way we can be sure of alignment/flip is by lynching (I don't really trust 2 of the 3 mafia flips), if you have a delayed vig... targeting the number 2 lynch candidate is kinda a silly move.
which two flips don't you trust? why?
[offtopic / math]
if you know (e.g.) that you have 2 scum with post restriction, that does not guarantee that if I choose 3 scums randomly out of the five I won't hit any with a PR. so you need the factors.manho wrote: the factor (4/10) and (1/10) are not needed.-
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Me=Weird Mafia Scum
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Wagon analysis on the BS lynch:
Baby Spice(10): The Stove, Lady Lambdadelta, chesskid3, Blooderection, Me=Weird,Nobody Special,Espeonage, Twomz, manho, Tasky
First off is the stove's vote:
Initially, not the most reasoned out vote. They do back it up somewhat later, but it's not too great. Conclusion: Null, leaningBaby Spice - one of the worst votes I've seen on MStown.
LLD:
The case: OMGUS, and and just calling BS scummy without really saying why. This is a very weak vote, almost entirely based on OMGUS. It looks a bit to me like scum trying to get a bandwagon going. Conclusion:Right now I like Baby Spice as Scum more than BloodErection.
For the simple fact that BloodErection's vote swap MAY have been based upon some deluded town logic... where as Baby Spice is just scumming it up in every way. Cop out post to avoid being linked to any wagon + an OMGUS vote on Parama = Scummy
Vote: Baby SpiceScum.
chess:
It's a bit hard to figure out what he's saying, as I don't know Italian and translating is weird. Basically, he's saying she wasn't making much sense, which is true, though I have quite often seen town players make no sense. He also accused her of calling townish people scum, the d1 point doesn't make sense because it's a night start game. An okay vote, though it's hard to tell because of the PR. Conclusion: Null.as far as I can tell, he wrote:However, I would prefer a Baby Spice wagon because she's not making much sense now, and calling calling obv. town people scum d1
BE:
Nothing there. Just plain bandwagoning, though they didn't give much reasons for any of their votes. Conclusion: LeaningUnvote:
Vote: Baby Spicescum.
M=W:
Link due to long post.
Well reasoned, follows up with his case on all her posts afterwards. Conclusion:Town
NS:
Not much reasoning there either, but he was scum, so.
Espeonage:
Yet another reasonless one. Conclusion: Leaning a bit toscum.
Twomz:
Good reasoning, I agreed with this post. Doesn't follow up with it after her other posts, though. Conclusion: Probablyunvote, vote: Baby Spice (L - 4)
Besides backwards/flawed voting logic (others have pointed it out, I don't even know what to say to it... providing reasons for votes is scummy? wtf), I agree that deflecting and the 'Oh woe is me' defense are two major scumtells (I was gonna say 'accurate' but scumtells are rarely accurate).town.
manho:
Just calls her obvscum.
Not much to analyze, it's becoming the norm to vote without reasons. Conclusion: Null, leaningscum.
Tasky:I think this game will be more fun if we put someone to L-1:
UNVOTE: VOTE: Baby SpiceBadvote. Because it would be more fun? He didn't even express suspicion before this.
I think my vote goes to tasky.
Vote: TaskyShow"Me=Weird did the best "I'm a power role but I'm not going to get targeted" play I think I've ever seen." - Amished
Mini 1267, a 9p Mini Normal is Day 1, page 4.
Cheese Mafia: a 25p(?) large theme about a big corporation buying up all the little individual cheese sellers.
On hold for lack of reviewers. PM me!-
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Reckamonic Goon
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So, we've been catching up in other games all day and it has taken us HOURS to do a few pages of catchup. Going through 21 pages here just isn't going to happen, plain and simple (though it doesn't look like you guys need our help anyway).
If someone wants to give us a brief summary, we'll just jump in and play from here.
Sorry for being so V/LA, this game started at a really bad time for us :S._.
meeeeeeep?-
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Tasky Mafia Scum
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lol.Me=Weird wrote: Tasky:I think this game will be more fun if we put someone to L-1:
UNVOTE: VOTE: Baby SpiceBadvote. Because it would be more fun? He didn't even express suspicion before this.
I think my vote goes to tasky.
Vote: Tasky-
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Me=Weird Mafia Scum
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Yeah, try to deflect my suspicion by laughing at it. It won't work. If you think my problem is that you hammered, then you can't read.That was a horrible vote.Show"Me=Weird did the best "I'm a power role but I'm not going to get targeted" play I think I've ever seen." - Amished
Mini 1267, a 9p Mini Normal is Day 1, page 4.
Cheese Mafia: a 25p(?) large theme about a big corporation buying up all the little individual cheese sellers.
On hold for lack of reviewers. PM me!-
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Twomz Cliqued On
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What are you? And why did you transform into giant shoes?
@ Tasky: It's too... convenient, the two deaths at the start of the days. It could be any number of things. A slightly delayed NK vig/sk, a DK vig/sk/2nd scum party, a DK/delayed NK SK who can choose what the flip is (I've seen it before), or any other number of other bastardly roles. If whoever is 'killing' players is actually killing scum, I want them to continue. But, until I see proof of some sort (or at least a believable claim) I will stay skeptical of the flips.
Did I spell it out enough?
"It's not a logical inconsistency. B can't be correct because then C would be, but it doesn't go the other way - there's nothing wrong with C being correct. Aside from Twomz saying otherwise." --Mith-
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Tasky Mafia Scum
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double lol.Me=Weird wrote: M=W:
Link due to long post.
Well reasoned, follows up with his case on all her posts afterwards. Conclusion:Town-
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Tasky Mafia Scum
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READ THE DAMN MOD POSTS!Me=Weird wrote:Yeah, try to deflect my suspicion by laughing at it. It won't work. If you think my problem is that you hammered, then you can't read.That was a horrible vote.
it was a mod error!
also:
you are aware of the fact that you are calling 5 people scum while we have max 2 left (assuming a 5 scum team)?Me=Weird wrote: ...
LLD: Conclusion:Scum.
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BE: Conclusion: Leaningscum.
...
Espeonage: Conclusion: Leaning a bit toscum.
...
manho: Conclusion: Null, leaningscum.
...
Vote: Tasky-
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Tasky Mafia Scum
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okTwomz wrote: @ Tasky: It's too... convenient, the two deaths at the start of the days. It could be any number of things. A slightly delayed NK vig/sk, a DK vig/sk/2nd scum party, a DK/delayed NK SK who can choose what the flip is (I've seen it before), or any other number of other bastardly roles. If whoever is 'killing' players is actually killing scum, I want them to continue. But, until I see proof of some sort (or at least a believable claim) I will stay skeptical of the flips.
is posting pics part of your post restriction?Twomz wrote:-
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Tasky Mafia Scum
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oh, and since I already triple-posted, here comes post nr. 4. YEEAH!-
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Antihero al;kdjfal;kj
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@chesskid: Did you miss this?
Still want it. Or an admission that your vote is actually OMGUS.Antihero wrote:First off, "semi-tunneling"? What is that? And how have I been doing that?
Second off, you can be posting in Italian without active lurking.
You can also quit with the whiny bullshit about AH-is-just-trying-to-"mislynch"-me-because-I'm-speaking-Italian. You're not that special because you're posting in Italian (i.e. - your post restriction is not that restricting, we can translate w/ a bit of garbling). I've already told everyone why I think you're scummy, and it's not because you're posting in Italian.The distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success.-
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xvart Mafia Scum
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Quick post toReckamonic:
Summary:chesskid is scum. Since he is post restricted, you can read my posts (I only have about ten or so) as I translate most of them and respond to their scumminess. Skip the statistics babble, as it is only relevant in regards to chesskid using flawed and mod confirmed false logic to defend himself, as is documented in my posting.
Will respond to the other stuff later.
xvart.I only read quote walls.
"Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?"-
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chesskid3 Survivor
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non andare a prenderlo, pisciare così via.Antihero wrote:@chesskid: Did you miss this?
Still want it. Or an admission that your vote is actually OMGUS.Antihero wrote:First off, "semi-tunneling"? What is that? And how have I been doing that?
Second off, you can be posting in Italian without active lurking.
You can also quit with the whiny bullshit about AH-is-just-trying-to-"mislynch"-me-because-I'm-speaking-Italian. You're not that special because you're posting in Italian (i.e. - your post restriction is not that restricting, we can translate w/ a bit of garbling). I've already told everyone why I think you're scummy, and it's not because you're posting in Italian.
Xvart ha tradotto ognuno dei miei post in modo errato. FaggotPapa Zito - "Your signature has been blanked...we remove signatures at a users request if said signature references them, or if it quotes from a thread in the Speakeasy, which is not allowed without permission of the poster"-
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Antihero al;kdjfal;kj
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Antihero al;kdjfal;kj
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Yeah, getting pissy isn't helping your cause. I know I'm being a bit inflammatory right now, but I'm getting somewhat irritated with you.chesskid3 wrote:
non andare a prenderlo, pisciare così via.Antihero wrote:@chesskid: Did you miss this?
Still want it. Or an admission that your vote is actually OMGUS.Antihero wrote:First off, "semi-tunneling"? What is that? And how have I been doing that?
Second off, you can be posting in Italian without active lurking.
You can also quit with the whiny bullshit about AH-is-just-trying-to-"mislynch"-me-because-I'm-speaking-Italian. You're not that special because you're posting in Italian (i.e. - your post restriction is not that restricting, we can translate w/ a bit of garbling). I've already told everyone why I think you're scummy, and it's not because you're posting in Italian.
Xvart ha tradotto ognuno dei miei post in modo errato. FaggotThe distance between insanity and genius is measured only by success.
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