StrangerCoug's Worst Nightmare IIIS: The Dungeon (Game over)

[Twomz]

Okay, I know what you're gonna say, but I think there's something seriously wrong about this whole surprise field trip thing.

@ Tasky: It's all good if you poisoned him or something, but the only way we can be sure of alignment/flip is by lynching (I don't really trust 2 of the 3 mafia flips), if you have a delayed vig... targeting the number 2 lynch candidate is kinda a silly move.

[chesskid3]

Non hanno lasciato cadere ogni scumtells. kthxbie

[manho]

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= P[0 or 1 or 2 scums have PR]

could you explain this step? thanks.

Spoiler: More maths here

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)] is talking about the probability that, after a random assignment of PRs, we still have 3 scums with no PR and 1 town with PR. it has nothing to do with the chance that we got 3 scums killed in a row. the only distribution that is removed after the flips is that all 3 PRs are scums, so the required probability is the chance that there are 0, 1, or 2 scums with PR, under random assignment of PRs.

hope it helps.

I think you got it wrong there.

P[(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
=P[(0 scums have PR)]+P[(1 scum has PR and he does not flip)]+P[(2 scums have PR and none of them flips)]
= (15*14*13)/(20*19*18) + 3*(15*14*5)/(20*19*18)*(4/10) + 3*(15*5*4)/(20*19*18)*(1/10)
<------- (4/10), (1/10) are the probability that if I choose 3 scums, none of them has a PR with 1 and 2 PR's in the scum group respectively. (4=C(4,3), 1=C(3,3), 10=C(5,3))
=0.596

therefore

P[(no scum with PR)|(3 scums flipped no PR and 1 PR flipped town)]
= 0.399/0.596
= 0.669

it seems that we don't need maths anymore, as PR are not randomly assigned. but i still want to say that

the factor (4/10) and (1/10) are not needed.

[manho]

chesskid is scum.

VOTE: chesskid

[smargaret]

Manho, drop the probability argument. If PRs aren't assigned randomly, as SC said they aren't, then it doesn't apply regardless of whether it's right or wrong.

Where is Framm? And Toonfighter?

[smargaret]

EBWOP Drat the post restriction.

[chesskid3]

chesskid is scum.

VOTE: chesskid

storia cool bro

[Framm 18]

I am here. I have been busy, but I have been trying to read through the thread.

I am trying to figure out why people were so interested in something that has nothing to do with trying to find scum???
Honestly, I am not sure of who to vote for.

My two biggest gut reads are...
BE - As I have said, he was aggressive, but in a bad way. Almost like he was trying to appear town, by defending a townie.

&

Espy - He has posted nearly two pages worth of stuff, and in my opinion has said very little in terms of scumhunting. (says the hypocrite, who has posted almost nothing.)

Odd thing is, I don't think that both of them are scum together, based on their interaction. But I feel llike I am behind the eight-ball in terms of trying to catch up with this game. Miss one or two days and you miss alot.

[Reckamonic]

Today is catchup day!
Post coming later.

[Toon Fighter]

Hai guys

I read D1 when it was still night, and will reread the last few pages to catch up. Will post again in a few hours.

[Tasky]

Okay, I know what you're gonna say, but I think there's something seriously wrong about this whole surprise field trip thing.

@ Tasky: It's all good if you poisoned him or something, but the only way we can be sure of alignment/flip is by lynching (I don't really trust 2 of the 3 mafia flips), if you have a delayed vig... targeting the number 2 lynch candidate is kinda a silly move.

why do you think that lynchs will flip correctly if you assume that wrong flips are possible?
which two flips don't you trust? why?

[offtopic / math]

the factor (4/10) and (1/10) are not needed.

if you know (e.g.) that you have 2 scum with post restriction, that does not guarantee that if I choose 3 scums randomly out of the five I won't hit any with a PR. so you need the factors.

[Me=Weird]

Wagon analysis on the BS lynch:

Baby Spice

(10): The Stove, Lady Lambdadelta, chesskid3, Blooderection, Me=Weird,

Nobody Special,

Espeonage, Twomz, manho, Tasky

First off is the stove's vote:

Baby Spice - one of the worst votes I've seen on MS

Initially, not the most reasoned out vote. They do back it up somewhat later, but it's not too great. Conclusion: Null, leaning

town.

LLD:

Right now I like Baby Spice as Scum more than BloodErection.

For the simple fact that BloodErection's vote swap MAY have been based upon some deluded town logic... where as Baby Spice is just scumming it up in every way. Cop out post to avoid being linked to any wagon + an OMGUS vote on Parama = Scummy

Vote: Baby Spice

The case: OMGUS, and and just calling BS scummy without really saying why. This is a very weak vote, almost entirely based on OMGUS. It looks a bit to me like scum trying to get a bandwagon going. Conclusion:

Scum.

chess:

However, I would prefer a Baby Spice wagon because she's not making much sense now, and calling calling obv. town people scum d1

It's a bit hard to figure out what he's saying, as I don't know Italian and translating is weird. Basically, he's saying she wasn't making much sense, which is true, though I have quite often seen town players make no sense. He also accused her of calling townish people scum, the d1 point doesn't make sense because it's a night start game. An okay vote, though it's hard to tell because of the PR. Conclusion: Null.

BE:

Unvote:
Vote: Baby Spice

Nothing there. Just plain bandwagoning, though they didn't give much reasons for any of their votes. Conclusion: Leaning

scum.

M=W:
Link due to long post.
Well reasoned, follows up with his case on all her posts afterwards. Conclusion:

Town

NS:
Not much reasoning there either, but he was scum, so.

Espeonage:
Yet another reasonless one. Conclusion: Leaning a bit to

scum.

Twomz:

unvote, vote: Baby Spice (L - 4)

Besides backwards/flawed voting logic (others have pointed it out, I don't even know what to say to it... providing reasons for votes is scummy? wtf), I agree that deflecting and the 'Oh woe is me' defense are two major scumtells (I was gonna say 'accurate' but scumtells are rarely accurate).

Good reasoning, I agreed with this post. Doesn't follow up with it after her other posts, though. Conclusion: Probably

town.

manho:
Just calls her obvscum.
Not much to analyze, it's becoming the norm to vote without reasons. Conclusion: Null, leaning

scum.

Tasky:

I think this game will be more fun if we put someone to L-1:
UNVOTE: VOTE: Baby Spice

Bad

vote. Because it would be more fun? He didn't even express suspicion before this.

I think my vote goes to tasky.

Vote: Tasky

[Reckamonic]

So, we've been catching up in other games all day and it has taken us HOURS to do a few pages of catchup. Going through 21 pages here just isn't going to happen, plain and simple (though it doesn't look like you guys need our help anyway).

If someone wants to give us a brief summary, we'll just jump in and play from here.

Sorry for being so V/LA, this game started at a really bad time for us :S

[Tasky]

Tasky:

I think this game will be more fun if we put someone to L-1:
UNVOTE: VOTE: Baby Spice

Bad

vote. Because it would be more fun? He didn't even express suspicion before this.

I think my vote goes to tasky.

Vote: Tasky

lol.

[Me=Weird]

Yeah, try to deflect my suspicion by laughing at it. It won't work. If you think my problem is that you hammered, then you can't read.

That was a horrible vote.

[Twomz]

What are you? And why did you transform into giant shoes?

@ Tasky: It's too... convenient, the two deaths at the start of the days. It could be any number of things. A slightly delayed NK vig/sk, a DK vig/sk/2nd scum party, a DK/delayed NK SK who can choose what the flip is (I've seen it before), or any other number of other bastardly roles. If whoever is 'killing' players is actually killing scum, I want them to continue. But, until I see proof of some sort (or at least a believable claim) I will stay skeptical of the flips.

Did I spell it out enough?

[Tasky]

M=W:
Link due to long post.
Well reasoned, follows up with his case on all her posts afterwards. Conclusion:

Town

double lol.

[Tasky]

Yeah, try to deflect my suspicion by laughing at it. It won't work. If you think my problem is that you hammered, then you can't read.

That was a horrible vote.

READ THE DAMN MOD POSTS!
it was a mod error!

also:

...
LLD: Conclusion:

Scum.

...
BE: Conclusion: Leaning

scum.

...
Espeonage: Conclusion: Leaning a bit to

scum.

...
manho: Conclusion: Null, leaning

scum.

...

Vote: Tasky

you are aware of the fact that you are calling 5 people scum while we have max 2 left (assuming a 5 scum team)?

[Tasky]

@ Tasky: It's too... convenient, the two deaths at the start of the days. It could be any number of things. A slightly delayed NK vig/sk, a DK vig/sk/2nd scum party, a DK/delayed NK SK who can choose what the flip is (I've seen it before), or any other number of other bastardly roles. If whoever is 'killing' players is actually killing scum, I want them to continue. But, until I see proof of some sort (or at least a believable claim) I will stay skeptical of the flips.

ok

is posting pics part of your post restriction?

[Tasky]

oh, and since I already triple-posted, here comes post nr. 4. YEEAH!

[Antihero]

@chesskid: Did you miss this?

First off, "semi-tunneling"? What is that? And how have I been doing that?
Second off, you can be posting in Italian without active lurking.
You can also quit with the whiny bullshit about AH-is-just-trying-to-"mislynch"-me-because-I'm-speaking-Italian. You're not that special because you're posting in Italian (i.e. - your post restriction is not that restricting, we can translate w/ a bit of garbling). I've already told everyone why I think you're scummy, and it's not because you're posting in Italian.

Still want it. Or an admission that your vote is actually OMGUS.

[xvart]

Quick post to

Reckamonic:

Summary:

chesskid is scum. Since he is post restricted, you can read my posts (I only have about ten or so) as I translate most of them and respond to their scumminess. Skip the statistics babble, as it is only relevant in regards to chesskid using flawed and mod confirmed false logic to defend himself, as is documented in my posting.

Will respond to the other stuff later.

xvart.

[chesskid3]

@chesskid: Did you miss this?

First off, "semi-tunneling"? What is that? And how have I been doing that?
Second off, you can be posting in Italian without active lurking.
You can also quit with the whiny bullshit about AH-is-just-trying-to-"mislynch"-me-because-I'm-speaking-Italian. You're not that special because you're posting in Italian (i.e. - your post restriction is not that restricting, we can translate w/ a bit of garbling). I've already told everyone why I think you're scummy, and it's not because you're posting in Italian.

Still want it. Or an admission that your vote is actually OMGUS.

non andare a prenderlo, pisciare così via.

Xvart ha tradotto ognuno dei miei post in modo errato. Faggot

[Antihero]

Hey Tasky, who are your picks for scum?

[Antihero]

@chesskid: Did you miss this?

First off, "semi-tunneling"? What is that? And how have I been doing that?
Second off, you can be posting in Italian without active lurking.
You can also quit with the whiny bullshit about AH-is-just-trying-to-"mislynch"-me-because-I'm-speaking-Italian. You're not that special because you're posting in Italian (i.e. - your post restriction is not that restricting, we can translate w/ a bit of garbling). I've already told everyone why I think you're scummy, and it's not because you're posting in Italian.

Still want it. Or an admission that your vote is actually OMGUS.

non andare a prenderlo, pisciare così via.

Xvart ha tradotto ognuno dei miei post in modo errato. Faggot

Yeah, getting pissy isn't helping your cause. I know I'm being a bit inflammatory right now, but I'm getting somewhat irritated with you.