Consulmaker II: the Pyrrhic War - Game over.


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Post Post #15 (isolation #0) » Fri Nov 19, 2010 10:36 pm

Post by Nathanael »

/confirm
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Post Post #18 (isolation #1) » Sat Nov 20, 2010 3:06 am

Post by Nathanael »

Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:no color=black
stupid question, but what's the point of this rule?
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Post Post #20 (isolation #2) » Sat Nov 20, 2010 4:00 am

Post by Nathanael »

Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
It's very hard to spot if one uses color=black tags around certain letters in a post. This way you can hide a message in your text in a similar manner as using invisitext.
wouldn't that come out as soon as someone quotes you?
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Post Post #25 (isolation #3) » Sat Nov 20, 2010 4:57 am

Post by Nathanael »

^this is me.
please don't divulgate.
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Post Post #68 (isolation #4) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 3:53 am

Post by Nathanael »

I really see no reason why we should not execute one of {Jack, ribwich}. As none of them took their claim back, it is clear that one of them has to be scum.
Since lynching the consulmaker is in no way worse than lynching a VT, we basically have a 50% chance of hitting scum without any drawback. you will never get such a high
a priori
(that is, without relying on scum/town-tells) percentage elsewhere.
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Post Post #69 (isolation #5) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 3:58 am

Post by Nathanael »

ok, then:

Jack:
1. what gain did you expect from claiming consulmaker?
2. would you claim consulmaker as scum?
3. do you think ribwich would counterclaim you as scum?
4. do you think there is a chance you are both town?

ribwich:
1. would you have claimed consulmaker if Jack hadn't claimed?
2. do you believe Jack is scum?
3. why do you think did Jack claim consulmaker?

vote Lowell
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Post Post #75 (isolation #6) » Sun Nov 21, 2010 6:23 am

Post by Nathanael »

if there is a townie in {Jack, ribwich} who fakeclaimed, UNCLAIM NOW!
you are doing us no favor at all keeping this up.
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Post Post #120 (isolation #7) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 5:01 am

Post by Nathanael »

chesskid3 wrote:Nathaneal,why not vote yourself for tribune? What was so amazing about Lowell's post that he deserves your tribune vote?
1. I am consul. There would be no point in being tribune.
2. no particular reason to vote Lowell, we need to get started somehow don't we?
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Post Post #122 (isolation #8) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 5:19 am

Post by Nathanael »

ribwich wrote:I'm not a fan of this idea, since it would involve guaranteeing that at least one of the consuls tomorrow is scum. If you're insisting on not allowing either one of us to die today, I would propose this alternative: everyone divides themselves up into two groups. I will guarantee that the consuls tomorrow are one person from each group.
how about dividing everyone in two groups A and B
and you choosing both consuls out of A and Jack choosing both consuls out of B?
that way even if one consul dies, we still know who of you is the real consulmaker.


PS:
FoS: chesskid
, for his nonsense-attack on me.
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Post Post #132 (isolation #9) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 8:18 am

Post by Nathanael »

how about simply splitting player-list in half?
it should be random enough for our purposes.
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Post Post #136 (isolation #10) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 8:34 am

Post by Nathanael »

mod, are we allowed to use cryptography?



UNVOTE: VOTE: Rabies
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Post Post #178 (isolation #11) » Mon Nov 22, 2010 9:29 pm

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:
Unvote; Vote: Jack


I want to see him as a Tribune.
lol. why exactly would you want that?

_____________


three cases:
case one, we are right and there is exactly one scum in {Jack, ribwich}: with the group split we find out who the liar is and lynch him
case two, Jack and ribwich are scum: the consulmaker chooses one out of each group, best case both consuls survive and we know two scum, worst case one consul dies and we lynch one of {Jack, ribwich} (the one who's group the consul was not in). extremely unlikely worst case, both consuls die, in this case we look at the players who died, if there are only two players, it's as if we had the consuls, and will know everything. should there be three deaths, probably the third consulmaker should out himself
case three, Jack and ribwich are both town. I am not going to consider this case because in this case one of them is a complete idiot. the only possible way this could be, is if the mod had forced one townie to claim consulmaker. (
mod, is there anything bastardly in this game?
)

mert, stop worrying for nothing.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Rabies, getting town-vibes there
chesskid3 wrote:Also, I'm not scrapping for the sake of it. Nathanael comes at me with "I'm starting to suspect chesskid because he dares to ask me why I voted Lowell for tribune after one craptastic post ZOMGZOMGZOMGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGGG"

Seriously. Lowell. Less than useless when he's town, and for some reason hard to lynch when he's scum. YA WOOOO GREAT TRIBUNE RIGHT THERE
ever heard about RVS? that's when one votes randomly without having to have particular reads on someone.
chesskid3 wrote:First mention of bus is noted.
lol.
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Post Post #183 (isolation #12) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 6:00 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:
Nathanael wrote:
SensFan wrote:
Unvote; Vote: Jack


I want to see him as a Tribune.
lol. why exactly would you want that?
I think he's slightly more likely to be Town than ribwhich. I think he's a rather good player, and I don't know about ribwhich. So I'd like to see him as Tribune, where he is forced to provide definate input one way or the other on the execution targets.
if you randomly choose someone out of {Jack, ribwich} you have 77,78% chance to have a town tribune. if you choose someone in {Jack, ribwich} that percentage drops to 50%
"slightly more likely" is in no way enough to justify such a tribunal vote.
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Post Post #194 (isolation #13) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 7:27 am

Post by Nathanael »

FoS: SensFan
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Post Post #200 (isolation #14) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 8:06 am

Post by Nathanael »

chesskid3 wrote:Yeah someone call me when Day 2 starts, there's no way we're getting a scum lynch today with these consuls.
lol. why don't you tell me who scum is then?
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Post Post #229 (isolation #15) » Tue Nov 23, 2010 7:52 pm

Post by Nathanael »

dramonic wrote:
Tribune: Chamber


Chesskid and Sens are town.
That's not a good thing though
what do you mean by the bolded?
SensFan wrote:Information to give future executions a higher chance of success.
lynching scum > whatever information you might get from a town lynch.



PS: everyone, stop proposing Jack (or ribwich) for tribune. WE ARE NOT VOTING THEM.
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Post Post #234 (isolation #16) » Wed Nov 24, 2010 7:56 am

Post by Nathanael »

Powerrox93 wrote:
Nathanael wrote:lynching scum > whatever information you might get from a town lynch.
Are you saying that a town lynch is always a bad idea?
no. I am saying that lynching scum is always better than lynching town.
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Post Post #255 (isolation #17) » Thu Nov 25, 2010 12:46 pm

Post by Nathanael »

UNVOTE: VOTE: chamber
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Post Post #271 (isolation #18) » Fri Nov 26, 2010 5:44 am

Post by Nathanael »

Sens, you are making no sense.
Having a scum tribune will give scum power. We do not want scum to have power.
The more power is in town's hand, the more town can force the action of players.
Town force players to commit to their reads.
Also, you are totally overrating "committing to reads". If scum-tribune has to choose whether to save or not someone, he/she just play it easy and do what town wants. You cannot accuse someone of doing what the majority of the town wants.
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Post Post #290 (isolation #19) » Sat Nov 27, 2010 7:38 am

Post by Nathanael »

mod, if I veto this execution now, can the same person be executed later? e.g. could I later execute chesskid?


chesskid, give me a good reason to Veto your execution.
1. why is Rabies scum?
2. why is powerrox scum?
3. do you think I am scum?
4. do you think it is town's best strategy to self-vote as tribune in the beginning?
5. do you think Lowell is scum?
6. How many scum do you think there are?
7. If you were tribune and SensFan were not a consul, would you veto an execution on him?
8. Who out of {Jack, ribwich} do you think is the real consulmaker?
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Post Post #291 (isolation #20) » Sat Nov 27, 2010 7:39 am

Post by Nathanael »

PS: just to make this clear, I am NOT waiving my right to veto.
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Post Post #292 (isolation #21) » Sat Nov 27, 2010 7:42 am

Post by Nathanael »

mod, another question: can a consul veto his own execution (=the one he proposes), e.g. could SensFan veto the chesskid-execution now?
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Post Post #309 (isolation #22) » Sat Nov 27, 2010 10:30 am

Post by Nathanael »

VETO: chesskid's execution.


PS: SensFan is scum.
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Post Post #360 (isolation #23) » Sat Nov 27, 2010 11:27 pm

Post by Nathanael »

chesskid3 wrote:I do believe I announced in thread many pages ago that I was going to coast today, yesh?
when are you going to stop coasting?

Jack wrote:Also, what he did say about the consulmaker thing indicated that he thought it was simple, we should just "lynch one and if he's town lynch the other" or something like that. Which would be a very short day of course.
this is total hypocrisy. you are comparing two totally different things and drawing totally crappy conclusions.
FoS: Jack


SensFan wrote:Yes. I submitted an execution after double-checking with the Mod to make sure there was no downside to it, since I could veto it myself. If you have a problem with that, you might as well extend your brush to include Nathan and chamber; both posted without immediately vetoing the execution.
What about this do you really mean?

SensFan wrote:Also, for old time's sake;
Glrok: chesskid
stop it.
VETO: chesskid's execution
.

SensFan wrote:I'm getting closer and closer to the "chesskid or no one" ultimatum, actually.
STOP THIS CRAP!
while I can understand the early pressuring by execution-threat this is going way to far.
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Post Post #366 (isolation #24) » Sun Nov 28, 2010 7:52 am

Post by Nathanael »

dramonic wrote:Again Sens, I understand your frustration at Chesskid3's incredible usefulness, but even though he's a twat he's still town. Bad, annoying, frustrating town, but he is. You're town too, do the right thing and off someone who has actual odds at being scum.

@Chess: Sorry pumpkin, but even though you claim to be unstable meta-wise, you're predictable. Stop experimenting and start playing.

@SpyreX: By dance the dance you mean...? ._.
why do you think that SensFan is town?
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Post Post #380 (isolation #25) » Mon Nov 29, 2010 8:16 am

Post by Nathanael »

VETO: whatever execution is going on.
(just to make sure)

carry on.

SensFan, why do you think that Jack is more likely town than ribwich?
Parama, mind some thoughts?
would you have found chesskid scummy if he weren't you?
would you have agreed to lynch him if we were close to deadline?
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Post Post #432 (isolation #26) » Tue Nov 30, 2010 8:44 am

Post by Nathanael »

more pseudo-votes please.
and someone please do regular votecounts (if the mod can't do it for us).
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Post Post #451 (isolation #27) » Tue Nov 30, 2010 7:53 pm

Post by Nathanael »

guys (parama), I guess everyone can multivote, as this are PSEUDO-votecounts. but what's the point of multi-voting? does it help you catch scum? no, so stop it.
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Post Post #460 (isolation #28) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 7:45 am

Post by Nathanael »

EXECUTE: SensFan!

Spoiler: ...
yes, I know he is unlynchable. I just wanted to draw attention to how scummy he is.
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Post Post #465 (isolation #29) » Wed Dec 01, 2010 8:05 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:
I will not allow an execution of either claimed Consulmaker to go through today.
SensFan wrote:I'm not willing to take a 50-50 shot today, and risk killing a confirmable PR, when we can ensure we get a 100% lynch of the liar on D3. Yes, I have a way to figure out which of them is lying by D3. No, I don't think its best to divulge it until just before we execute someone today.
SensFan wrote:
Vote: rib; Vote: Kat
SensFan wrote:Second of all, stop talking about yourself like you're confirmed Consulmaker. There's a higher chance you're Scum than anyone else other than Jack. And if we're going to gamble, it's going to be on you. If we mess up and hit JackTown, we lost a very good consulmaker. If we mess up and hit ribTown, we gain a competent consulmaker.
SensFan wrote:You do realize that as soon as you (even if you're telling the truth) get executed, another confirmed Town pops up, right?
someone tell me how this is not a blatant contradiction.
Sens, what exactly changed?
How can you be so sure ribwich is the right choice over Jack (whom you even wanted as consul)?

Damn, why is my top scumread exactly the one we can't lynch today?


PS: have we already made the lists for the two consulmakers to choose from? we should do it like this:
one consulmaker makes two lists in a simple
random
way. the other chooses
randomly
between the two lists.
that way scum has minimal influence on the lists, as at least one of the two has to be town (and if not, the third consulmaker is quite free with his choices, as he can choose one player per list.)
it is very important that if you are town you make your decision in a random way.
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Post Post #490 (isolation #30) » Fri Dec 03, 2010 9:14 am

Post by Nathanael »

VETO: KATSUKI's EXECUTION

EXECUTE: KATSUKI


a little time-gain.

@everyone: I want a definite statement on whether you:
a) want the katsuki lynch
b) are comfortable with the katsuki lynch
c) are uncomfortable with the katsuki lynch
d) don't want the katsuki lynch
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Post Post #497 (isolation #31) » Fri Dec 03, 2010 10:54 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:
Nathanael wrote:
VETO: KATSUKI's EXECUTION

EXECUTE: KATSUKI


a little time-gain.
Your ego just has to let me accomplish nothing today, doesn't it?
actually I just wanted a little more time to hear everybody.

PS: everybody, actually I'd like a reason for your answers too.
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Post Post #522 (isolation #32) » Sat Dec 04, 2010 3:31 am

Post by Nathanael »

ribwich wrote:
Katsuki wrote:I am a VT btw. You guys can proceed accordingly.
I'm not sure how strongly this should be considered, but this could be a slip. There are no VTs in this game. The closest thing is a Roman Senator, but they're not really vanilla since the PM states they can become consulmaker. It probably isn't very much on its own since I could see some people still referring to it as a VT, but I do think it at least adds to the case against Katsuki.
FoS: ribwich
.
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Post Post #524 (isolation #33) » Sat Dec 04, 2010 12:21 pm

Post by Nathanael »

have we decided on the two lists for the consulmakers yet? if yes, must have missed it, show me.
it is necessary we do that before a lynch.
I also want both consulmakers to explicitly agree with it by quoting it, so there are no misunderstandings.
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Post Post #531 (isolation #34) » Sun Dec 05, 2010 2:01 am

Post by Nathanael »

SpyreX wrote:JESUS PICK A PLAN AND GO

a) want the katsuki lynch
a) want the katsuki lynch
a) want the katsuki lynch

GUYS
why?
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Post Post #537 (isolation #35) » Sun Dec 05, 2010 8:56 am

Post by Nathanael »

VETO: KATSUKI'S EXECUTION

EXECUTE: KATSUKI


I want to give replacements a little more time.
I am however willing to lynch Katsuki later.
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Post Post #552 (isolation #36) » Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:58 am

Post by Nathanael »

JACK, YOU BETTER DON'T MISS THIS. I WILL NOT ACCEPT A "I DIDN'T SEE THAT" LATER.
Last edited by Cogito Ergo Sum on Mon Dec 06, 2010 10:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post Post #553 (isolation #37) » Mon Dec 06, 2010 4:58 am

Post by Nathanael »

damn. link-fail. mod, could you please fix?
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Post Post #577 (isolation #38) » Mon Dec 06, 2010 7:01 pm

Post by Nathanael »

VETO: KATSUKI'S EXECUTION

we are not executing Katsuki today.

EXECUTE: Parama
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Post Post #588 (isolation #39) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 4:00 am

Post by Nathanael »

I am town, Katsuki is very likely town, Parama is probably scum.

Powerrox93 wrote:
xRECKONERx wrote:I swear to god I'm lurking and not posting again until D2. Stop FUCKING extending the deadline.
^This^

I don't care who you execute (Yes that includes me) today but just execute someone

FoS Nathanael
lol. I was executing someone (Parama). this post is obvious BS.

FoS: Powerrox
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Post Post #589 (isolation #40) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 4:01 am

Post by Nathanael »

dramonic wrote:Also, Parama is the most obv-town player in the game FFS.
tell me how Parama is obv-town!
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Post Post #597 (isolation #41) » Tue Dec 07, 2010 8:50 am

Post by Nathanael »

EXECUTE: Powerrox93
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Post Post #635 (isolation #42) » Sun Dec 12, 2010 6:53 pm

Post by Nathanael »

vote: ribwich


Jack, you better have a REALLY good explanation.
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Post Post #645 (isolation #43) » Mon Dec 13, 2010 7:31 am

Post by Nathanael »

Jack wrote:I picked from ribwhich's list for wifom to confuse scum, but I got the lists mixed up which is my bad you should have made it clearer which we were supposed to pick from, still on the whole I'm disappointed that people don't appreciate how protown a claim it was, lotta upside low downside considering the consul choices thus far.
lol. this is just plain funny.
so you claim you picked from the wrong list?

please execute him.
dramonic wrote:hey look I'm consul.
Fortunately for you Reck, there's someone who's confirmed scum in general,
not just to me
;)
and this is one of the most blatant scumslips I have seen in a long time. (eccept one Parama knows about.)
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Post Post #646 (isolation #44) » Mon Dec 13, 2010 7:33 am

Post by Nathanael »

Jack wrote:
I picked from ribwhich's list for wifom to confuse scum
, but
I got the lists mixed up
which is my bad you should have made it clearer which we were supposed to pick from, still on the whole I'm disappointed that people don't appreciate how protown a claim it was, lotta upside low downside considering the consul choices thus far.
btw, aren't the two bold statements in direct contradiction to each other?

consuls, how much more does it take until you execute this obvscum?


@mod: are there jesters in this game?
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Post Post #649 (isolation #45) » Mon Dec 13, 2010 8:21 am

Post by Nathanael »

oooohhhh f*ck. misread.
I read: "Fortunately for you Reck, there's someone who's confirmed scum in general, not just me"
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Post Post #656 (isolation #46) » Mon Dec 13, 2010 9:10 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:
Feysal wrote:Besides, how much control would ribwich actually have? He cannot dictate who the Consuls should execute, he can only choose the Consuls themselves. His opinion may have more weight due to his confirmed town status, but that is all the influence he has. I don't think this is reason enough not to choose him.
He has a tremendous amount of control. If he finds me scummy, he can pick two Consuls who both find me scummy as well, for instance. I think it's a massive mistake to let someone pick the Consuls and also have veto power.
the point is that he is confirmed town. giving a lot of power to town is a good thing, no?
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Post Post #692 (isolation #47) » Fri Dec 17, 2010 2:52 am

Post by Nathanael »

psudovote: lowell
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Post Post #703 (isolation #48) » Fri Dec 17, 2010 10:19 am

Post by Nathanael »

parama's case is nonsense.
I was wrong in the beginning, yes. so what? I thought 50% lynch is better than random and didn't think that we could confirm the consulmaker

what you keep calling a false dichotomy, is just the logical thought. the first, simplest thing to assume when you have two contradicting claims is that one of them is scum.
right now I am rethinking that, since Jack's post made some sense, but why would anyone assume there were two town cc'in each other?

right now I think Jack is nully, but I think he did a really bad move if he really was town.

sensfan made some nonsensical arguments, his tunnel on chesskid was just plain crap. I somehow accepted his play later, but I'd still put him in my slight scumreads.
Parama wrote:
Nathanael wrote:case two, Jack and ribwich are scum: the consulmaker chooses one out of each group, best case both consuls survive and we know two scum, worst case one consul dies and we lynch one of {Jack, ribwich} (the one who's group the consul was not in). extremely unlikely worst case, both consuls die, in this case we look at the players who died, if there are only two players, it's as if we had the consuls, and will know everything. should there be three deaths, probably the third consulmaker should out himself
this is plain and simple filler. there is no way 2 scum would both claim consulmaker and cc each other.
I included this case because someone else was talking about a possible third consulmaker.
I just wanted my argument to be complete as I prefer complete arguments in any case.
ribwich wrote:Nathaniel: Was there ever a time when you were thinking you would allow katsuki to be executed? If not, why keep the charade up by constantly doing attempts on her?
I always thought that lynching Katsuki could be an option. I just wanted some more time to decide. no reason to rush. his late posts looked townish to me so I stated I wasn't going to allow his lynch in the end. since I found powerrox slightly scummy, I accepted the suggestion and executed him.


PS: I know you will dismiss this as OMGUS, but I don't care. Parama's attack on me is just nonsense. I have seen him play town, he was quite awesome and found all scum.
vote, Parama
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Post Post #713 (isolation #49) » Sat Dec 18, 2010 12:24 am

Post by Nathanael »

ribwich wrote:
Parama wrote:And this is where everything you say is completely discredited.
Seriously.
I disagree. I've never played with you and can't chime in on if he's even right about this, but if you're someone that normally is very good at catching scum, using those kinds of arguments as a reason to suggest someone is scum does make it a fairly good chance you could be scum.
this is the game we were in together until a few weeks ago: click
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Post Post #714 (isolation #50) » Sat Dec 18, 2010 12:33 am

Post by Nathanael »

EBWOP: "few weeks" should read "few days"
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Post Post #717 (isolation #51) » Sat Dec 18, 2010 4:27 am

Post by Nathanael »

then go and catch scum, will ya?
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Post Post #732 (isolation #52) » Sun Dec 19, 2010 5:52 am

Post by Nathanael »

Parama wrote:Can we execute ribwich? Pleeeeease?
omg.
don't you see ribwich is CONFIRMED TOWN?
you are definitely totally, awfully wrong in this game. on everything.
and since I know your townplay is better than this, you are scum.

can we please execute Parama?

ribwich wrote:I'm probably going to get some flak for this, and I'm surprised myself that I'm actually doing this...

VETO JACK EXECUTION


I'm not saying I for sure think he's town. There's a chance that this has all been a big scum gambit, but I can now really see the pro-town reasons for what he did. There's better execution choices for today.
finally someone who uses his head here.
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Post Post #754 (isolation #53) » Mon Dec 20, 2010 7:46 am

Post by Nathanael »

can we lynch Parama or Lowell please?
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Post Post #761 (isolation #54) » Mon Dec 20, 2010 6:54 pm

Post by Nathanael »

Parama wrote:
dramonic wrote:Lowell and Parama will not be lynched ever.
fix'd
Nathanael, you have yet to say why I'm scum. Or why anyone is scum, for that matter. This is why YOU are the scum. If I ever get elected consul, you're going down ASAP :D
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Post Post #778 (isolation #55) » Sun Dec 26, 2010 9:13 am

Post by Nathanael »

Vote: ribwich

confirmed town is confirmed.
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Post Post #781 (isolation #56) » Sun Dec 26, 2010 10:49 am

Post by Nathanael »

Porochaz wrote:Its Nathaniel. By all intents and purposes, he should have his head on the block at the end of the day.
what do you mean with "its nathaniel"?
scotmany12 wrote:We are not letting ribwich be tribune after the shit he pulled yesterday.
what ribwich did yesterday was a good move.
we did lynch scum, didn't we?
and I don't think Jack is scummy in any way. I wouldn't call him town, but I think he's null at worst. therefore saving him was the correct choice.
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Post Post #785 (isolation #57) » Sun Dec 26, 2010 11:30 am

Post by Nathanael »

Porochaz wrote:I have found you intensely scummy everytime you post. Ribwich wasnt good yesterday, Im thankful for what he did but he was not a good spokesperson for the town. Also fence sitter is fence sitting.
fence sitting is a bad thing because it may indicate scummyness.
but ribwich is confirmed town. he made a good decision yesterday. he is moderately active overall.
what else exactly do you want a tribune to be?
Porochaz wrote:Because despite it being the right decision, he went against the majority of the town.
a good tribune has to go against the town sometimes.
don't forget:
individual town decision > whole town decision
for some reasons:
a) a part of the "town" is scum
b) a mass is usually weaker/more stupid than the average individual. human nature.

therefore having a (even if mediocre, in your POV) single town individual making one decision is much better than if it is done by all together.
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Post Post #793 (isolation #58) » Mon Dec 27, 2010 8:29 am

Post by Nathanael »

rethinking, Jack is likely town, considering how hard dramonic was going after him. he was already bussing reck, I don't think he would bus two partners.
scotmany12 wrote:We're going to need to lynch jack, and sooner is much better than latter due to the information we can gain off of the lynch. There is too much risk to let jack live, and I don't trust ribwich to not veto and execution on jack.
this is fallacious. we do absolutely not need to lynch Jack. he is for all purposes back at null, IMO he is even slightly townish. There is really no reason why he would be scum over someone else.
if he does scummy things, we will lynch him. otherwise, he is just as good a lynch as a random lynch, and that's not particularly good.

If I can get a confirmed townie tribune, I don't see any reason not to. And since you definitely aren't going to vote me, ribwich is the obvious tribune-choice.
Feysal wrote:Then there is the fact that Nathanael (as Tasky) posted that he would not reveal his reads or reasons to avoid the scum messing with them. Now that he is no longer consul he has no reason to be secretive any more. I don't really disagree with the things he said and did during the first day, but I'd like to know what his reasons were.
I delayed Katsuki's lynch, because I thought we could use more time. Quicklynching wouldn't have helped at all.
I found Katsuki's reactions slightly townish, and since I hade a slight scum-vibe from Powerrox and deadline was near, I agreed to his lynch.
something else you'd liked explained?
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Post Post #805 (isolation #59) » Mon Dec 27, 2010 7:24 pm

Post by Nathanael »

Feysal wrote:Couple things. Where did your execution attempt of Parama come from? Earlier that day you had vetoed Chesskid's execution twice, and Parama replaced into that slot. What happened?

Then there is SensFan. You said he was your top scumpick on day one, and it was pretty clear from the context why. Do you still believe him to be scum?
I vetoed chesskid, because SensFan's attack on him was just nonsense. There was absolutely no reason for him to be scum at that point
then Parama replaced in, attacked me for a completely BS, which is something I wasn't used him to do when town. I have seen him play as town and he played a lot better. now, I don't know, maybe he is just having a bad month, but hey, it's better than nothing.
conclusion: 60% scum

I still think SensFan is slightly more scummy than random. I can see why he would do what he did as townie, but I can also see the scum motivation. The problem is that I don't seem to agree with almost anything he says/does, and I could be biased by that
conclusion: 40% scum

(assuming 33% scum = null)
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Post Post #813 (isolation #60) » Tue Dec 28, 2010 11:59 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:You'd be a lot more likely to understand my posts if you read them, Nathanael. I wasn't attacking chesskid on the basis I thought he was particularily likely to be Scum.
and where exactly did I say that you believed chesskid to be scum?
Your attack on chesskid was BS. I didn't even think about whether you thought him scum or not.
Magua wrote:Nathaniel gets buddy-buddy points for vetoing my slot's execution (three times, yay!)
what exactly are buddy-buddy points?
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Post Post #819 (isolation #61) » Tue Dec 28, 2010 11:21 pm

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:
Nathanael wrote:I vetoed chesskid, because SensFan's attack on him was just nonsense. There was absolutely no reason for him to be scum at that point[/quote
Nathanael wrote:and where exactly did I say that you believed chesskid to be scum?
Now, perhaps I'm crazy (hint: I'm not), but you're contradicting yourself.

You were asked about the flip-flop of your stance as it pertains to chesskid/parama, and instead of saying the obvious (something like 'I changed my mind on chesskid' or 'I just wanted to give people more time to discuss, so I veto'd Sens' Glroking even though I was suspicious of chesskid') you decided to attack me instead by saying my attack was nonsense because there was no reason for me to think chesskid was Scum. Minor red flag is raised with that explanation, because it stinks of trying to deflect the pressure from chesskid to me.
Then I point out that my attempted execution of chesskid wasn't based at all on me thinking he was Scum. Your immediate reaction is fairly predictable, you recalled that I was attempting a 'policy lynch' on chesskid, and so immediately jumped to try and debunk my criticism of you by asking me where you said you thought I thought chesskid was Scum. Unfortunately, you seem to have forgotten your claimed reasons for vetoing the chesskid execution that you gave a handful of posts ago.
read again. I said:
SensFan's attack was BS (as it was a policy lynch). PERIOD. there was no reason for chesskid to be scum (this is the answer to his question on my stance). PERIOD. then Parama came ...
nowhere did I say that YOU thought chesskid was scummy.
I just said that
I
didn't see any reason at that time for chesskid to be scum. I changed my mind on that slot when Parama started throwing crap around.
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Post Post #820 (isolation #62) » Tue Dec 28, 2010 11:22 pm

Post by Nathanael »

EBWOP: his question = Feysal's question
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Post Post #822 (isolation #63) » Wed Dec 29, 2010 4:42 am

Post by Nathanael »

it makes a lot of sense
since you attacked (tried to execute) chesskid for a reason that WAS NOT RELATED TO SCUMHUNT, I vetoed, i.e. I vetoed because I didn't see anything scummy about chesskid. There was no reason for him to be scum at that time, and therefore no reason to execute him.
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Post Post #837 (isolation #64) » Wed Dec 29, 2010 11:08 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:2c) He gets to delay the day until close to deadline, leaving very little time for discussion when after he swapped over to another execution
loooool. So, me
delaying
the lynch did leave
little time for discussion?

What my move did was
create
time for discussion.
But you guys kept complaining about the my actions instead of doing something with your time.
SensFan wrote: And I'm pretty sure 2c is exactly what happened. He said he was just delaying the Kat execution a couple times, then all of a sudden 3 days before deadline or so was like 'LOL JK. Execute Power instead of Kat.' That's going off of memory, as my grandma's neighbour's internet that I'm current mooching is pretty slow, so I'm not going back to check.
Yes, I agreed with the Power execution as someone proposed it (can't remember who it was right now) because I had a scummy feeling on him before. After my execution, no one argued and we were close to deadline, so I saw no reason not to execute someone I had scumvibes on.
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Post Post #850 (isolation #65) » Thu Dec 30, 2010 10:08 am

Post by Nathanael »

P a r a m a . I s . S c u m !

Vote Feysal
. much better option. I just hope some people stay on the ribwich wagon and keep him tribune.
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Post Post #851 (isolation #66) » Thu Dec 30, 2010 10:21 am

Post by Nathanael »

Is Mert still in this game? did I miss him being replaced?
What about Leon Belmont?

Mod, can we get some prods?
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Post Post #855 (isolation #67) » Thu Dec 30, 2010 11:48 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:I still don't get why you would want anyone to be both Consulmaker and Tribune, let alone someone who veto'd the Jack execution yesterday.
because:
a) he is town
b) HE IS TOWN
c) he made a great move saving a probable townie and lynching scum (yes, it wasn't him directly, but it was the outcome of his action)
d)
H E . I S . T O W N

e) oh, and did I already mention that he is town?

why do you guys all want to lynch Jack?
He is quite probably town.
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Post Post #870 (isolation #68) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 2:17 am

Post by Nathanael »

dramonic wrote:
Execute: Jack


I wanna kill Reeeeeeeeeeck ;_;
=> dram & Jack are not in the same scum-faction. This is the classical scum play: vote (in this case execute) a townie, FoS (in this case "I wana kill Reck") a scumbuddy. No way this is a double bus.

This means that if Jack is scum, he is in a potential second scumgroup.
This however means he has less than average chance of being actually scum (assuming two X-person scumteams with X>2 which is highly likely if we really have two scumteams)

But:
This game is called
Pyrrhic
War and the scum we caught so far were
pyrrhic
goons.
Why would one scumgroup be so significantly more important than the other?
=> 2 scumteams HIGHLY unlikely, we might have a SK, however.
=> Jack lynch is bad until we think it is time to SK-hunt.
Jack's play didn't seem to do much damage, imo. I would call him null on play. If you have some reason for him to be suspect BESIDES his gambit, come forward.
SensFan wrote:Alternatively, Spy, answer me this. Imagine it's LyLo a few days from now, and you're the Dictator. Jack is still alive. Are you really telling me there's any chance in the world Jack doesn't get lynched?
I mean, seriously, there's no way in hell ScumJack can be given any chance to possibly win the game for his side.
I'd also point out that all of his claimed 'gains' from his supposed dumbass gambit revolve around the fact that he's lying Town; why oh why are we not seeing if it's worth our time to look at his suspects?
Now this is serious BS.
1. Jack isn't in any way more likely to be scum than random.
2. The bolded part is terrible: Just because you don't want Jack to get away with it IF he is scum, this does in no way imply he is more likely to be scum.
Assume player X was scum in game 1 and fooled player Y. Now Y in game 2 says "I don't want X to get away with it a second time if he is scum this time, VOTE: X"
It's the same thing. And it is crap.
3. Lying town DOES exist.
4. Do you have any other reason you want Jack dead? did you see anything scummy in his play?
scotmany12 wrote:I too do not see why people would want to let jack live. There i
s too much risk in letting him survive
. And I don't know why anyone would think he would be town after how long he dragged on his facade.
What risk do you see exactly?

____________________

Coming back to the ribwich Tribune&Consulmaker issue:
Assume ribwich get's tribune power. He will either:
a) Work against the general town will or (value: X for town)
b) follow the town will (value: Y for town)
he will however, since he is town, do the one which is best. we therefore get V=max{X,Y}.

Assume we handle the tribune power to someone and assume they have a random chance of being scum, let's say 33%
1) Now, if that person indeed is scum, they can do two things:
a) act in their interest and against the town (value: Z for town, note that in Z there is also the benefit of potentially catching scum if they do something obviously bad)
b) follow the town's will (value: Y for town)
since however it's a scum that chooses, he will choose the worst of the two. V=min{Z,Y}
2) we handle the power to a random townie, who however knows that he is not confirmed to us
a) work against the general town will (value: X for town)
b) follow the town will (value: Y for town)
Now, however, his unconfirmed status makes it much more difficult for them to make decision X, because they risk to get attacked
Let's say he chooses Y with probability at least 1/2.
Therefore we get:
V=1/3*min{Z,Y}+2/3(1/2*Y+1/2*max{X,Y})=1/3*min{Z,Y}+1/3(Y+max{X,Y})

now 1/3*min{Z,Y}+1/3(Y+max{X,Y}) is definitely smaller than max{X,Y}.
This is also conditioned by the fact that group decisions tend in general to be worse than individual good-willed decisions (reference) => X is likely higher than Y
Note that the fact that ribwich is also consulmaker is completely irrelevant.
SensFan wrote:a, b, d, e are NOT good reasons. Just because someone is Town does not mean I feel like gambling the game on them not having a single false townread. As for wanting to lynch Jack, it's based on the fact he agreed to be lynched over and over and over if he got busted. And guess what? He got busted. And when he got busted, his first try was a terrible lie as opposed to coming clean.
the game is in no way "gambled over on a single townread". There is very likely more than two scum left, so even if a townread is wrong, we still have 2 more scums to hunt.
BTW, I believe that ribwich is reasonable enough to listen to arguments.

_________________________

To conclude some questions:

@Magua:
Who do you think is more likely scum, Porochaz or Leon Belmont?
@Parama:
Who do you think is more likely scum, scotmany or SpyreX?
@Lowell:
Who do you think is more likely town, Feysal or Primate?
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Post Post #872 (isolation #69) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 2:30 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:
Nathanael wrote:Coming back to the ribwich Tribune&Consulmaker issue:
Assume ribwich get's tribune power. He will either:
a) Work against the general town will or (value: X for town)
b) follow the town will (value: Y for town)
he will however, since he is town, do the one which is best. we therefore get V=max{X,Y}.
WRONG. Town != Right.
So you think town as whole is more likely to be right than a single townie?
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Post Post #873 (isolation #70) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 2:51 am

Post by Nathanael »

The Fonz wrote:since Tasky/Nate is in this game, he'll understand the Kantian argument on this)
lol
The Fonz wrote:
Nathanael wrote:I really see no reason why we should not execute one of {Jack, ribwich}. As none of them took their claim back, it is clear that one of them has to be scum.
Since lynching the consulmaker is in no way worse than lynching a VT, we basically have a 50% chance of hitting scum without any drawback. you will never get such a high
a priori
(that is, without relying on scum/town-tells) percentage elsewhere.

You see, it's decent analysis like this in your previous games that made me so convinced your 'I'm a moron' thing in txt was an act. Yes, I'm still bitter. + Nate

Sens' stance makes sense. Wait a day.
why do I get town points for a "decent analysis" which turned out to be completely wrong, while SensFan made a post that "makes sense" and turned out to be the right play at the time (even if he is wrong right now) and doesn't get a +?
TheFonz wrote:
Primate wrote:I just think it's such a stupid scum play that it has to be town poorly planned town gambit.
That works equally well in reverse. It's such stupid town play that it makes more sense to be a scum gambit, relying on people making this exact argument. Or the GF gambit.
excuse my ignorance, what do you mean by GF gambit?
TheFonz wrote: chesskid so far has only been dropping bad player tells, but this of course means he hasn't actually done anything protown either.
do you have something specific you would attribute more to a bad player than to scum?
The Fonz wrote: 98 is much better, however.
what about that post did you like?
TheFonz wrote: 110 is superficially appealing, but reduces the amount of info available to town. The tribunal vote is the one thing the democracy directly chooses. Small - rabies/feysal.
if he is scum, do you think he proposed something you called anti-town on purpose?
doesn't this - (minus) contradict your previous statement about alignment-neutral "bad plans"?
TheFonz wrote: LOL Mert (aka me) 154 is just bizarre.
would you have found this post scummy if it weren't your predecessor?


I'm waiting for more, TF. overall I like your posting.
A question, who do you think is more likely scum: Parama or scotmany?
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Post Post #879 (isolation #71) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 8:28 am

Post by Nathanael »

scotmany12 wrote:
Nathanael wrote:
scotmany12 wrote:I too do not see why people would want to let jack live. There i
s too much risk in letting him survive
. And I don't know why anyone would think he would be town after how long he dragged on his facade.
What risk do you see exactly?
How exactly is there not a risk? Let's assume we let him survive till endgame. Do you honestly think the thought that he was lying this whole time would not affect the actions of those in endgame? And the longer he lives, the less amount of time we have to analyze his posts if he is town. How do you honestly believe there is no risk in letting someone who fakeclaimed, and dragged on his facade rather than coming clean when we gave him the opportunity, live?
You are falling back on the same fallacy I showed above. You don't WANT him to win IN THE CASE he is scum, and therefore you lynch him, because it would be a to great shame to be tricked by a fakeclaim. You do not realize, however, that a scumwin is a scumwin, no matter if it is because of a fakeclaim or because we didn't believe a townie was gambitting.
The risk of leaving him alive is no greater than the risk of letting any non-confirmed player alive.
of course I do not trust him, but neither do I trust you or the rest of the town. He isn't more likely scum than anybody else (except for some slight townreads). We shouldn't let our judgment be clouded by the fact that the put the spotlight on him putting him in the focus.
As I said, I am open to scumtells, but I WILL NOT AGREE TO A LYNCH BASED ONLY ON HIS GAMBIT. he is even on the slight townish side right now for me, considering dramonic's attitude towards him.
scotmany12 wrote:
The Fonz wrote:
Nate wrote:case three, Jack and ribwich are both town. I am not going to consider this case because in this case one of them is a complete idiot. the only possible way this could be, is if the mod had forced one townie to claim consulmaker. (mod, is there anything bastardly in this game?)
I'm glad fonz quoted this. You are now considering this possibility nate. Why?
I changed my opinion. It's something that happens. I liked his posts. And I now see the town motivation of the gambit I didn't see before. Also, I still do not see the scum-motivation.

His gambit isn't in any way helping him. No, it is not.
His gambit has to be considered NULL by every sensible townie. Judge him on tells, on attacks, on slips, even on meta, BUT DO NOT JUDGE HIM ON HIS GAMBIT.
his gambit hasn't brought him ANY advantage if he is scum, and it will not in the future.
Whatever you might say, I think it did help town:
1) It forced ribwich to out, which was good. ribwhich might have feared something. If Jack were scum, he would know there was no danger to outing ribwich (assuming a danger would have manifested itself by now, I believe there is no such danger), and outing him would have only harmed his faction.
2) It brought a lot of insight into player's styles and opinions. I think it even brought some insights into alignment.
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Post Post #882 (isolation #72) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:06 am

Post by Nathanael »

SpyreX wrote:
Judge him on tells, on attacks, on slips, even on meta, BUT DO NOT JUDGE HIM ON HIS GAMBIT.
This would be awesome but go ahead and show me the myriad of things he's done that aren't a direct function of said gambit.
nono, don't get me wrong. judge him on the things he says, how he behaves. If he makes a scummy post, attack him for it.
Just don't include THE FACT that he made a gambit.
there is ABSOLUTELY NO REASON why that gambit is more likely done by scum than by town.
SensFan wrote:You're a bigger idiot than I thought if you're sincerely making the argument that Jack didn't hurt the Town by lying for over a day about being Consulmaker.
yes, I am sincerely making that argument. Guess I'm a big idiot.
But you still have to tell me: WHY IS THAT GAMBIT MORE LIKELY TO COME FROM SCUM THAN FROM TOWN??
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Post Post #884 (isolation #73) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:30 am

Post by Nathanael »

^I am not thinking he is town BECAUSE of it. I just said we should judge him ON EVERYTHING ELSE, i.e. maybe he is town DESPITE the gambit or scum DESPITE the gambit.
if you can show me why he is scum, do so.
I say we should just IGNORE THE FACT HE PULLED A GAMBIT for all evaluation purposes. don't ignore what he does, what he says. You are so fixed with the fact that you want to punish his gambit, that you are totally ignoring what's the important part of the game: SCUMHUNTING.

PS: your post didn't answer the question at all.
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Post Post #885 (isolation #74) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 9:31 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:You're a bigger idiot than I thought if you're sincerely making the argument that Jack didn't hurt the Town by lying for over a day about being Consulmaker.
instead of continuing to say that he hurt town, can you please tell me HOW he hurt town? what about the outcome of the past days didn't you like and you think would have gone better hadn't he fakeclaimed?
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Post Post #887 (isolation #75) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 10:29 am

Post by Nathanael »

STOP MISREPRESENTING ME!
I said ignore
THE FACT (!!!)
that he made a gambit for EVALUATION PURPOSES. not what he said or did around the gambit.
is that so hard to do for you?

let me help you a little, since you don't seem to get it.

Assume someone else made the gambit. OK? now, assume Jack saw that someone else's gambit and drew conclusions? OK?
what would you say about this posts?:
one
two:
Jack wrote:We played in gears of war so I KNOW you know I'm not that dumb. I fakeclaimed a role there and got mafia lynched too.

You came in today knowing I was town and then realized that was a scum thing to know and are trying to back out of it. None of your stated reasons for thinking I was town could have changed by noting that I was "keeping up my consulmaker claim"...which I clearly wasn't. Your "holy shit, how'd I miss that?" post reads as "holy shit, I got myself in trouble saying he was town!".
three:
Jack wrote:
dramonic wrote:
Execute: Jack


I wanna kill Reeeeeeeeeeck ;_;
Veto and execute xreck.

xreck's ungenuine waffling.

lowell's opportunistic forgetfullness.

scotmanies "I'm sure jack is scum" combined with cussing me out for a "stupid fucking gambit". If he was sure he'd caught jack-scum in this scenario it would be "haha, that was easy".

A lynch on me is lazy and crappy.
etc. (I am confident you are able to ISO Jack yourself)

____________________

Also, I want everybody who thinks Jack is scum to tell me whether they believe dramonic would be double bussing like that.
Or do they believe there is a second mafia faction?
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Post Post #889 (isolation #76) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 10:59 am

Post by Nathanael »

THE FAKECLAIM IS NOT SCUMMY. IT IS
NULL
!
SCUMMY=scum is more likely to do it.
WHY WOULD SCUM BE MORE LIKELY TO FAKECLAIM A REPLACEABLE POWERROLE?
scum gets absolutely NOTHING out of it. => scum has no more incentive to do it than town => not a scumtell
we do not want scum to get a free pass out of it either => not a towntell either => we treat it as NULL!

besides: ANSWER MY QUESTION ABOUT DRAMONIC! do you think that dramonic post was a double bus?
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Post Post #890 (isolation #77) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:00 am

Post by Nathanael »

besides. how about just answering my questions for argument's sake even if you don't understand the reasons behind it?
It would help me scumhunt. Is there any drawback?
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Post Post #892 (isolation #78) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:14 am

Post by Nathanael »

Feysal goes back to null.

unvote Feysal
.
vote The Fonz
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Post Post #895 (isolation #79) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 11:38 am

Post by Nathanael »

Town
ribwich (~) >> The Fonz (replacing Mert) (+) > Jack (+) = Magua (replacing Katsuki) (-)
Null
Feysal (replacing Rabies) (-) = Primate (~) = SpyreX (~) = Leon Belmont (replacing horrordude0215) (~) > Porochaz (-) = Parama (replacing chesskid3) (+)
Scum
scotmany12 (-) = Lowell () > SensFan (-)

Current trend is shown: +...getting townier; -...getting scummier; ~... staying same


Feysal wrote:
Nathanael #892 wrote:Feysal goes back to null.
I do? If it was something I said in my last post, could you point me to what you disagree with?

If it was something I did not say, I wanted to get that post out of the way before trying to make sense of Jack.
Yes, it was something in your last post. if you can find it and explain it, I could accept that and put you back to townish.
if I have to point it out for you, I'll leave you at null.
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Post Post #899 (isolation #80) » Fri Dec 31, 2010 12:35 pm

Post by Nathanael »

scotmany12 wrote:What has parama done to make you think he is no longer scum? You sure seemed adamant about him being scum at the beginning of the day.
I liked The Fonz' post on chesskid being townish and put Parama back to null.
Parama, you can thank you predecessor.

scotmany12 wrote: Yes it is. You're entire behavior about it is why scum would claim it. Saying scum gain no benefit from it is exactly what he would want you to say. He either gets away with being viewed as consulmaker until the real one is killed, or he successfully forces the majority of the discussion onto his fakeclaim, and turns the game into one big argument over it. Like what is happening now. Thinks for one second and realize scum have benefit for doing this.
and you need to see also that:
1. town might have a benefit too. e.g. Jack's arguments about scum KNOWING there are two 2 claiming, while town don't makes sense.
2. scum have a disadvantage of being put in the spotlight

also, making most of the discussion rotate around the fakeclaim is what YOU are doing. I am trying to convince you to just ignore it.
Parama wrote:Oh don't worry scot, Nath is scum and his reads can change as much as they want to as a result.
lol.
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Post Post #906 (isolation #81) » Sat Jan 01, 2011 11:55 am

Post by Nathanael »

I hope this people don't forget to answer my questions:
Nathanael wrote:
@Magua:
Who do you think is more likely scum, Porochaz or Leon Belmont?
@Lowell:
Who do you think is more likely town, Feysal or Primate?
TF, I'm waiting for your answers too as soon as you finish catching up. Also TF, do you think Sens is scum?

Feysal@Feysal. It wasn't one of the ones you showed. I just didn't like the overall tone of the post. I liked your response, though, but I prefer to keep you at null right now.
But, here is another question: assume you had pointed out those things in someone else's post, would you have found it scummy? if yes, how scummy? if no, why did you think I could have found them scummy?


Primate
Primate wrote:
scot wrote:Self-metas suck. It wouldn't really surprise me if both reck and dram are scum.
Notable.
this + other things => scot get's back to null.
Primate wrote:Yeah. It's a really ballsy play from Dram if jacks in their scumgroup. Makes me quite a bit less comfortable with Jackscum.
this seems like you are still a little comfortable with Jackscum, yet later in that post you say that such a gambit is more likely to come from town than from scum. And you think it would be "really ballsy" if dram+reck were scum with Jack. considering this:
Primate wrote:Drams behaviour doesn't scan with that possibility. I'm still on the fence but to me that's enough to make it a pretty convincing grey area.
mind clarifying your stance?
Primate wrote:I won't be voting ribwich for tribune because he is consulmaker. I have no objection to his play yesterday, but think that it is not productive to have a confirmed townie in that role. If a non-consulmaker townie had made the same play yesterday, now we would have a role that is very strongly town, instead we don't, we have gained no information, and I don't think that's worth the security of having a conf town in that position at this point in the game.
do you think a non-confirmed player (even if town) would ever dare to make such a move? would you have made such a move? do you think it was the best possible move in ribwich's position?

still, townpoints for primate.
PS: primate, would you mind formatting your walls a little better in the code? like putting quotes in a new line. It makes it much easier to divide it into blocks.


SensFan
SensFan wrote:"There's a scumtell in your last post. If you can find it, I won't count it against you."
"Ignore the super scummy thing he did; you should just look at the slightly townie things he did to try and explain the super scummy thing."

These goldmines and more, brought to you by Nathaneal.
do you think I'm scum? yes or no?


Porochaz
Porochaz wrote:Posting cause I was prodded, I see Nathaniel is still alive, therefore I have nothing more to say.
scumpoints for you:
1) enough has gone on, enough has been said. there is a lot to comment on and still you prefer to active lurk.
2) let's look at your attack on me in the past:
Porochaz wrote:...I totally agree with Parama and was planning (on Monday when I have a day free) to make a semi decent post about Nathaniel. The whole play the latter half of yesterday was not in towns best interests and today its just been weird. He needs to go now!
vote Nathaniel
"weird"=scummy? if yes, why not say so? scum tend to define scummy things as "weird", "odd", "interesting" or similar because they feel it's lessdefinite than "scummy" and doesn't force them to commit.
also, could you please restate Parama's case in your own words and tell me why you agree?
Porochaz wrote:However the main point of my double post is that I agree with scot about nathaneal and a lot of his latest posts seem like OMGUS. (He called it) But I cant seem to remember a post of his Ive liked. The thing with dismissing posts as OMGUS, is that it has to be OMGUS if there is a reason, or in this case, a lack of one. Which you haven't, you weakly defended yourself against Parama's attack and 732 is one of those horrible "your scum cause I said so, no content" posts and as definitely totally awful these posts are, yours scrapes the bottom of the barrel particularly for that definitely totally awful emphasis.

Also ribwich buddying isnt going to get you many places.
so the whole "decent post" you had promised to give is basically a scream of OMGUS. I'm quite tempted to give you scumpoints only for the use of OMGUS, but I'll refrain from it (TF knows why).
could you also please restate scot's point about me (Nathanael btw.) and explain why you agree?
also, I find the "He called it" weird (=scummy [/irony]). Tell me, wouldn't you have made the EXACT same post even if I hadn't "called it"? if yes, why add that then? do you think it is incriminating? if yes, why?

and now, could you please tell me where exactly your case is?
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Post Post #923 (isolation #82) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 5:49 am

Post by Nathanael »

Primate wrote:Basically I think Jack would be a fantastic information lynch...
could you tell me the info you expect to get? i.e. assume he flips town/scum, what conclusions would you draw?
Primate wrote:
Nath wrote:this + other things => scot get's back to null.
What's your reasoning for reading it this way? (Not that it's a bad thing, just curious)
he made a good call, yet never tried to draw attention to it. I'd expect scum to try to get towncred out of a nice read like that.
Also, I reread him, and I can more or less follow his reasons in a way that looks quite genuine. It has the wandering character townies tend to have.

while rereading I found this:
SensFan wrote:Yes, I have a way to figure out which of them is lying by D3. No, I don't think its best to divulge it until just before we execute someone today.
Sens, do you mind explaining your plan? Also, could you please tell why it wasn't a good idea to divulge it? and why did you forget about this later, not following through with it?
Magua wrote:
SensFan wrote:Fonz is making a lot of sense; gives me good vibes.
Fonz calls you scum. Repeatedly. You agree?
seconded.
scotmany12 wrote:Magua, do you have any plans at all to read day one?
could you sum up the main reads you got from day 1? Which parts do you especially recommend to read?
The Fonz wrote:ribwich 521 is dumb, because the Senator PM includes the word townie. Of course, rib didn't get that pm so it's marginally justifiable, but still.
would you see rib's post as scummy if he wasn't confirmed town?


ribwich
>>
The Fonz = Jack = primate
>
Feysal = Magua
>
scotmany
>
Leon Belmont = SpyreX = Parama
>
Lowell
>
Porochaz = SensFan
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Post Post #926 (isolation #83) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 6:18 am

Post by Nathanael »

The Fonz wrote:1) Scum are informed, town are not. Therefore, they may well be some wrinkle scum are aware of and I'm not.
this is extremely unlikely, considering that this isn't a bastard game and ribwich has been outed for 2,5 days now without anything bad happening.
also, it wouldn't match with the overall mechanic.
The Fonz wrote:2) If not CCed, Jack is able to benefit from additional influence, and freedom from attack entirely. This removes the 'do we bus' quandary from his buddies.
not true. the real consulmaker can choose to CC as soon as he sees that Jack is trying to abuse his power. besides, scum will never hope for this, because it is obvious they will be counterclaimed.
The Fonz wrote:3) If he
is
counterclaimed, this causes town to waste an absolute ton of time discussing how to resolve the consulmaker issue, during which time they are not scumhunting.
I grant you that scum has a small advantage here. but even while discussing the consulmaker issue a lot of reactions, stances can be made. especially day one, when most of the posts are spam, having something (even if only marginally connected with scumhunting) to discuss on is almost as good as out-of-the-blue-scumhunting. so this holds little value to scum if you consider this correctly
The Fonz wrote:4) Offering himself up as an early bus to his team-mates,
this point is stupid: first, a bus like that would give almost no towncred to a scum bussing. if the plan was to bus Jack, not having him attract the attention with a fakeclaim first would have made the town-cred reward much bigger for the bussing scum. second, planned bussing this early is rarely a good play for scum. sometimes scum have to bus or think it is strategically good if the buddy they are bussing is weak or in risks to get into a tight spot anyway. it is however better to avoid bussing if possible. No scumteam, imo, would go into day 1 with the plan to bus one of their members.
The Fonz wrote:and handing out a couple of mislynches because there's always going to be SOMEONE who bites on the wifom.
this also makes no sense. how do you think attracting the attention to a scummember makes it easier to mislynch someone? if someone is a weak target, correct strategy for scum would be to go after them right away, instead of a) risking a scum and b) shifting away focus from the designated target.
The Fonz wrote:Primate: I assume by 'run cover' you mean try to draw the NK and protect the real one? What is the value of that in this setup?
...
5) The usual benefit of outing as many town roles as possible as early as possible.
what value does 5) have for scum?
The Fonz wrote:6) The Kaleidoscope gambit.
I think this is highly unlikely too. yes, it is a possibility but a) it risks one of the strongest teammembers (a GF), b) it is very very rare. I think this possibility can be disregarded.

so, we have seem almost all of your points don't bring any significant advantage to scum, and this extremely small advantages still have to be weighted up against the likely possibility of being lynched on the spot or a day later.
also, the "town doesn't know there are two towns, scum does"-kind of reasoning seems at least possible for a townie to think of. I might be the type of reasoning I would make.
The Fonz wrote:Sens; so scummy early on, yet so right right now.
do you still think Sens is scum? would you be comfortable with his lynch? Would you actively try to achieve it?
SensFan wrote:Unfortunately, I didn't veto the execution because I had a great idea, but was late coming home from class and missed my chance.
I just found this too, following TF's post. would you mind stating what that "great idea" was?
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Post Post #932 (isolation #84) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 6:28 am

Post by Nathanael »

The Fonz wrote:If you were town, you'd see the possibility that Dram wasn't expecting to have his bluff called because he was expecting an easy execution of you.
I don't think this attack is fair. his point there is legitimate and I would have hard time seeing that possibility too. it's always easier to talk after you know the results
The Fonz wrote:Hmmmm. I get a vibe of 'Hey dumb noob, pay attention to how I buddied your predecessor!' here.
Yes, this was the think I had noted too. However I feel his response post continued with that trend in a way that made it look more like his overall style. But I went to look for some other games, and I found only one scum-game, where he posts quite a similar amount of content. While this isn't a scumtell, it made me retract my towntell.


UNVOTE: VOTE: ribwich
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Post Post #934 (isolation #85) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 6:38 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:
Nathanael wrote:
SensFan wrote:Yes, I have a way to figure out which of them is lying by D3. No, I don't think its best to divulge it until just before we execute someone today.
Sens, do you mind explaining your plan? Also, could you please tell why it wasn't a good idea to divulge it? and why did you forget about this later, not following through with it?
That was explained ages and ages ago. Pay some attention, please. Even a semblance of reading my posts would be nice.
I assume it was this.
If yes, what about that plan did you think was not a good idea to divulge earlier?
SensFan wrote:
Nathanael wrote:
SensFan wrote:Unfortunately, I didn't veto the execution because I had a great idea, but was late coming home from class and missed my chance.
I just found this too, following TF's post. would you mind stating what that "great idea" was?
Not a goddamn chance. Again, if you pretended to read my posts it would help your credibility. If you are reading my posts, you shouldn't be trying to get me to explain this when it's already been agreed to that there's no benefit to telling every future Consul 'This is how you make sure you get to execute anyone you want'.
mind linking to where this has been agreed and by whom? must have missed it.
also, could you please explicit your point? I can't understand it.

also, Sens, you still need to tell me whether you think I am scum or not.

@Fonz, doesn't it make you rethink your opinion that SensFan, the most scummy player around, is trying to lynch Jack?
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Post Post #939 (isolation #86) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 6:53 am

Post by Nathanael »

The Fonz wrote:
Nathanael wrote:
The Fonz wrote:1) Scum are informed, town are not. Therefore, they may well be some wrinkle scum are aware of and I'm not.
this is extremely unlikely, considering that this isn't a bastard game and ribwich has been outed for 2,5 days now without anything bad happening.
also, it wouldn't match with the overall mechanic.
In the original consulmaker, the SK was completely screwed by a GF mechanic he hadn't anticipated.
ok, how about we lynch Jack as soon as there is any evidence scum have any advantage from knowing the consulmaker?
The Fonz wrote:
The Fonz wrote:2) If not CCed, Jack is able to benefit from additional influence, and freedom from attack entirely. This removes the 'do we bus' quandary from his buddies.
not true. the real consulmaker can choose to CC as soon as he sees that Jack is trying to abuse his power. besides, scum will never hope for this, because it is obvious they will be counterclaimed.
You're acting like it would be obvious Jack was abusing it. Not everyone is Sens.
don't misrep me. abused = do anything ribwich thinks is scum-motivated. don't forget that Jack can't use his "confirmedness" at all, since he knows there is someone out there who can bust it any moment.
The Fonz wrote:
The Fonz wrote:3) If he
is
counterclaimed, this causes town to waste an absolute ton of time discussing how to resolve the consulmaker issue, during which time they are not scumhunting.
I grant you that scum has a small advantage here. but even while discussing the consulmaker issue a lot of reactions, stances can be made. especially day one, when most of the posts are spam, having something (even if only marginally connected with scumhunting) to discuss on is almost as good as out-of-the-blue-scumhunting. so this holds little value to scum if you consider this correctly
I just disagree. Time spent discussing plans and suchlike is rarely productive: see Spyre's 'Just fucking pick one and get on with it' diatribe.
I didn't say it is productive. The loss in time is not so big as you paint it. also, don't forget, D1 has a long deadline and if it hadn't been for me extending the Katsuki lynch, it would have ended much earlier. this shows there isn't that much time scum can gain.
The Fonz wrote:
The Fonz wrote:4) Offering himself up as an early bus to his team-mates,
this point is stupid: first, a bus like that would give almost no towncred to a scum bussing. if the plan was to bus Jack, not having him attract the attention with a fakeclaim first would have made the town-cred reward much bigger for the bussing scum. second, planned bussing this early is rarely a good play for scum. sometimes scum have to bus or think it is strategically good if the buddy they are bussing is weak or in risks to get into a tight spot anyway. it is however better to avoid bussing if possible. No scumteam, imo, would go into day 1 with the plan to bus one of their members.
Several games' worth of experience beg to differ.
this feels like plain appeal to authority to me. might EXPLAINING your stance instead of just arguing your superiority?
The Fonz wrote: Scumbuddies, because they know what the flip will be, are able to position themselves to look town as a result of it. Town, being uninformed, will likely see at least a couple of members act in such a way as to make themselves look hella scummy.
Isn't this true for EVERY situation in mafia? isn't this what the whole game is all about?
The Fonz wrote:
The Fonz wrote: 5) The usual benefit of outing as many town roles as possible as early as possible.
what value does 5) have for scum?
OMG, you are kidding me, right?
no. a) how is such a gambit supposed to out any powerrole besides the consulmaker? b) how is outing the consulmaker any good to scum considering your stance I quoted?
The Fonz wrote:
The Fonz wrote:6) The Kaleidoscope gambit.
I think this is highly unlikely too. yes, it is a possibility but a) it risks one of the strongest teammembers (a GF), b) it is very very rare. I think this possibility can be disregarded.
The strength of the GF is in his investigation immunity. This gambit plays to that strength. Also, rare, but no so much that it can be disregarded.
just because something is possible, it doesn't mean it is probable. this is quite a common logial fallacy. Also, I could tell you a lot of other gambit's that
could
happen, but that doesn't in any way mean each of them is likely. Since it was cited, primate's cop-gambit as town, shows it is possible. does that make it probable? no.
The Fonz wrote:
so, we have seem almost all of your points don't bring any significant advantage to scum, and this extremely small advantages still have to be weighted up against the likely possibility of being lynched on the spot or a day later.
Except that it's NOT THAT LIKELY at all, because SOMEONE ALWAYS, ALWAYS MAKES THIS KIND OF ARGUMENT YOU ARE TRYING RIGHT NOW. Look at the situation I'm in right now with trying to push Jackscum. Does this really look that easy to you?
Well, it is likely. don't forget Jack owes his life to ribwich's action, which was absolutely not likely in any way. ribwich's action was quite a surprise to everybody and this shows that the
likely
outcome of yesterday should have been a Jack-lynch.

Also, please don't forget the extremely unlikely scumconnection Jack-dram-xreckx
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Post Post #941 (isolation #87) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 7:00 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:Would you look at that. Looks like chesskid may actually have been right about the fact that one of the D1 Consuls was Scum.

If you're actually somehow Town, Nathaneal, then please step away from this game for the rest of today. Tomorrow, take a deep breath and look at your posts anew. You'll see that you're not making any sense re: Jack, and you're asking me for things that I either explained weeks ago, or else explained why there's no way in hell I'm going to expand.
lol.
you are not bullying me. you are not being helpful. I asked you a thing, because I must have missed it, but you don't show absolutely ANY will to cooperate. I will look for it, I just hoped you might avoid making me look though your 10 pages iso.
If you "explained them weeks ago", why not just link to the post where you explained them? if you explained why there is no way you are going to expand, why not link to that post too?
SensFan wrote: Pre-post: Just saw Nathan's last post. All the above applies even more. Especially when Fonz says "I want Jack lynched, if he wasn't here it would be Magnus/Sens", and Nathan's response is to imply that Fonz called me "the most scummy player around".
where do I imply that Fonz called you the most scummy player?
I
called you the most scummy player.
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Post Post #942 (isolation #88) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 7:01 am

Post by Nathanael »

Spoiler: EBWOP, Quote fail
SensFan wrote:Would you look at that. Looks like chesskid may actually have been right about the fact that one of the D1 Consuls was Scum.

If you're actually somehow Town, Nathaneal, then please step away from this game for the rest of today. Tomorrow, take a deep breath and look at your posts anew. You'll see that you're not making any sense re: Jack, and you're asking me for things that I either explained weeks ago, or else explained why there's no way in hell I'm going to expand.
lol.
you are not bullying me. you are not being helpful. I asked you a thing, because I must have missed it, but you don't show absolutely ANY will to cooperate. I will look for it, I just hoped you might avoid making me look though your 10 pages iso.
If you "explained them weeks ago", why not just link to the post where you explained them? if you explained why there is no way you are going to expand, why not link to that post too?
SensFan wrote: Pre-post: Just saw Nathan's last post. All the above applies even more. Especially when Fonz says "I want Jack lynched, if he wasn't here it would be Magnus/Sens", and Nathan's response is to imply that Fonz called me "the most scummy player around".
where do I imply that Fonz called you the most scummy player?
I
called you the most scummy player.
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Post Post #943 (isolation #89) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 7:07 am

Post by Nathanael »

scotmany12 wrote:Are you saying its not beneficial for him to read all of day one?
no, I'm not saying that, I was just asking. But I do think skimming the day should be enough, especially since later posts tend to pick out the most important parts anyway in form of quotes/references
scotmany12 wrote: Why are people saying it is extremely unlikely that fonz is scum with dram and reck? What have any of them done to make it seem like jack could not be scum with them?
I assume you mean Jack? there are other things too, but for me this is enough. As I already explained this is a quite typical scum maneuver: vote a townie, FoS a buddy.
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Post Post #955 (isolation #90) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 7:45 am

Post by Nathanael »

The Fonz wrote:So we lynch Jack when town gets the informed minority's information?
no. if scum really has some advantage from knowing the consulmaker, we will find out. After all: a) we get informed if something went wrong in the night actions b) we see if something happens to consuls , etc. If this was scum's motivation, we could definitely find out soon enough and lynch Jack then.
The Fonz wrote: I'm not misrepping you. How is it going to be clear early on what is and isn't scum-motivated?
Must have explained badly. You say, Jack will use his confirmed status to manipulate town. I say that worst case scenario ribwich cc's immediately, putting this to halt, best case scenario, ribwich waits a while to see what Jack does with his new acquired power and then stops it cold anyway with a CC. (Don't forget ribwich hasn't ANY problem counterclaiming at any time as he can confirm himself through consul choices.) this means Jack can't hope to get any negative influence on town by his "confirmedness", since ribwich can bust his cover on any given moment
The Fonz wrote: How exactly am I going to argue against your assertion that you don't see scum doing it other than to point out that I've actually seen scum do it really quite often? Heck, you saw Reck and Dram come out the gate with a big bus IN THIS GAME.
nonononooooo. you didn't understand what I said.
Assume scum A wants to bus scum B for town cred. If scum B is exposing themselves with a big gambit, scum A will get almost no town-cred from a successful bus, since it will be seen as the "obvious move".
however, if scum A simply busses scum B out of tells of other sorts, and "catches" him (i.e. finds scummy things on him and get's him lynched out of his effort) his town-cred will be MUCH bigger.
this is why I say that using a fakeclaim as a reason to bus is extremely bad strategy. I didn't say busses are unlikely.
For the "out of the gate thing", the fact that it happened once, makes it even more unlikely to happen again. while it is unlikely to bus a buddy "out of the gate", bussing TWO buddies this way is extremely unlikely.
The Fonz wrote: When it's a scum engineered situation, it's easier for them to manipulate it than if it's one that's come about as a surprise to them because a town player did something unexpected.
I'll grant you this in general terms. But don't forget that D1-mislynches are extremely likely. Probably even more likely than when random lynching due to some townies attracting some kind of attention. Why would scum need to resort to such a gambit to get a mislynch early? a scum-gambit has more reward, the later it comes, since the information it will cover up will be much greater. on the flip side, a town gambit loses efficiency later, for the same reason.
The Fonz wrote: It's not necessarily designed to out any OTHER roles. But knowing whether the cmaker is malleable to your ends is useful, and every single outed town role helps narrow down the power role candidates.
well, this contradicts your previous stance which says covering up the consulmaker is valueless.
The Fonz wrote: just because something is possible, it doesn't mean it is probable. this is quite a common logial fallacy.
Tell me where I actually used that fallacy you're accusing me of? It's happened before, it would perfectly explain Jack's behaviour, therefore it has to be considered. [/quote] you are quoting a very very specific instance and it is clear that I can't refute it. obviously it
could
be the case. the problem with your argumentation, is that you put it on the same level as general things. therefore it leaves the impression that that alone is reason enough to presume a scum-motivated gambit. The problem with this is, I could (If I had been on this site longer) quote specific TOWN gambits and could say those
could
happen too. We would get into an impossible case by case, gambit by gambit war which would absolutely miss the point.
The Fonz wrote:
Well, it is likely. don't forget Jack owes his life to ribwich's action, which was absolutely not likely in any way. ribwich's action was quite a surprise to everybody and this shows that the
likely
outcome of yesterday should have been a Jack-lynch.
Really? Because every time scum pulls something like this, there always seems to be a large bloc who take your line. I don't think it was in any way unlikely a priori that one of them got into one of the four positions that could veto his death.
no. you are forgetting the high pressure on someone making such a move. I, probably, wouldn't have in ribwich's position.
A non-confirmed townie or scum would really think twice before they put themselves against the whole town like that. Jack was lucky here that a) there was someone tribune who didn't want him dead and b) had the balls to do it (almost only a confirmed town would do this)
The Fonz wrote:How unlikely, exactly? We already saw Dram is bushappy.
It's exactly the fact that he bussed that hard once, that makes it unlikely to bus so hard another time, even in the same post.
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Post Post #966 (isolation #91) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 8:35 am

Post by Nathanael »

The Fonz wrote:I would like to know, however, where I said that outing the consulmaker is valueless for scum. I said KILLING the consulmaker is bad for scum, unless the consulmaker is a very good scumhunter (hence my thought that Jack would die early when I initially thought he was CM: Jack is a very good scumhunter when he wants to be, ie isn't scum like here). Knowing the consulmaker could be useful to scum precisely so they don't waste a kill on him. Also, why should I assume that scum value the information in exactly the same way I do?
"Primate: I assume by 'run cover' you mean try to draw the NK and protect the real one? What is the value of that in this setup?"
wouldn't covering a consulmaker also prevent all other advantages scum may have from knowing them?
The Fonz wrote:Nate, frankly I can't be bothered getting bogged down in this. He lied about his role; scum do this. Arguing minutiae is just going to get me frustrated for no good reason.
I understand. I think we aren't going to agree with each other anyway, and I think anyone else has seen enough to decide on their own.
Parama wrote:Well if I had to pick 2 from that wagon...
ribwich is confirmed town
Nathanael is scum
Magua (Katsuki) is not scum with Nathanael
Lowell is not scum with Nathanael

so it must be Jack.
And there are 2 scum on your tribune wagon btw.
this is probably the worst post in the whole game. I am really having a hard time believing you could be town. I don't care how townish your predecessor was, you are going back to scummy after this.
could you please restate your case on me?

Preview edit:
Parama wrote:Hmm now that I'm rethinking... there's probably 2 scum left, maaaaaybe 3 but it's less likely, so the scum probably aren't voting together on the tribune wagon.
So Jack probably isn't scum since Nathanael is.
lol.
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Post Post #972 (isolation #92) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 9:12 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:Is it just me, or does Nathan say something like "this is probably the worst post in the whole game. I am really having a hard time believing you could be town. I don't care how townish your predecessor was, you are going back to scummy after this" whenever anyone calls him Scum?

Seriously. I'm pretty sure his scumlist is currently: Sens/scot/Parama/Fonz
lol. no. if YOU had read my posts. you would see this (link):
Nathanael wrote:
ribwich
>>
The Fonz = Jack = primate
>
Feysal = Magua
>
scotmany
>
Leon Belmont = SpyreX = Parama
>
Lowell
>
Porochaz = SensFan
after I said Parama goes back to scum, this means

porochaz,SensFan,Lowell,Parama are my top suspects

after your accusations for "not reading", this gets you further scumpoints for hypocrisy.

also, I'd like to point out that it was you who attacked me AFTER I had been calling you scum (almost) the whole game, not the other way round. this get's you more hypocrisy points. (as if you hadn't enough already)
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Post Post #974 (isolation #93) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 9:16 am

Post by Nathanael »

SpyreX wrote:I missed it in the edits:

YES, I don't think Jack is scum with Dram and Reck. Consering the NK a second group isn't out of it AND he's gots to go so yes I would kill the hell out of him.
wouldn't you want to wait for evidence of a second scumgroup then?
I agree that as soon as there is a good reason to believe there is a second scumgroup, we shall kill Jack.
wanting to kill him without that sort of evidence totally contradicts your read on him not being scum with dram and reck.
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Post Post #992 (isolation #94) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 10:25 am

Post by Nathanael »

The Fonz wrote:Hey Nate, could you explain your suspicion of Porochaz?
there is a block about him in this post that shows it pretty well.
summing up it's:
-> active lurking
-> tunnelling without providing a case
-> sheeping crappy cases
-> posts like this show absolutely NO interest in finding scum.

I really hope our consuls are sensible enough to execute one of {Porochaz, SensFan, Lowell and Parama}
I'd prefer SensFan.
SensFan wrote:As for OMGUS, I'm not talking about me;
we've suspected eachother
. But Parama was neutral on your list, and then you quoted a post where he called you Scum and said he's been upgraded to your Scum list. You can claim I've been OMGUSing everyone as much as you want; its painfully obvious from my stances on scot and Fonz, to give but two examples, that I'm perfectly capable of separating the subjective from the objective in my reads.
emphasis mine. this is serious BS! you kept discrediting what I said WITHOUT CALLING ME SCUM EVEN ONCE! I had to ask you 2 (or was it 3?) times until you showed a stance on me. and then it was as if it had always been there. this is the first time you dare to call me scum.
Also, you are totally strawmanning my point. I never claimed you were OMGUS'ing! I said it was extremely hypocritical to call me out for attacking my attackers and then attack me.
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Post Post #1002 (isolation #95) » Sun Jan 02, 2011 11:24 am

Post by Nathanael »

The Fonz wrote:On the other hand, there's also the factor that I really don't see Sens/Magua, so my individual scumread on at least one of you has to be wrong. Bearing that in mind, there's no reason not to work with you on those issues where the positions you are taking seem to me to be townfriendly, regardless of whether they're genuine or simply convenient.
could you please explain on what basis you don't believe in a Sens/Magua scum connection? I suppose it is related to the Katsuki execution, but do you have specific posts that make you think it couldn't have been bussing?

Also, what do you think on the Sens-Jack connection? ignoring individual scummyness how likely do you see them being scum together?





@
SpyreX
. I'd like you to clarify your stance on the Jack-affair. I really don't see the logic in your position. please correct all the following assumptions:
a) you belive Jack can't possibly be scum with dram&reck
b) you believe there might be a second scumteam
c) you believe in LaL-policy and are more than fine with lynching Jack
d) you have absolutely no evidence that shows there might be a second scumteam, and on the contrary, the game-title suggests otherwise.

I'd like you to explain how there can possibly be a second scumgroup and how, if you refuse this assumption, you can possibly argue to lynch Jack given a).
Also, do you think it is possible for Jack to be a SK?
And, I'd like you to explain why waiting for evidence for the presence of a second scumgroup or a SK isn't strictly better than lynching Jack outright.
In case there is a second scumgroup, we will know soon enough, we can still lynch Jack then. otherwise, we have just saved a townie.
for the serial killer, worst case scenario is we know about him at massclaim, since if no vig claims, we know Jack had to be SK.

^this is also directed at anyone who doesn't see the reck&dram+Jack connection and still wants to lynch Jack.
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Post Post #1022 (isolation #96) » Mon Jan 03, 2011 3:17 am

Post by Nathanael »

scotmany12 wrote:Nate, I want this answered. You have yet to explain why it is unlikely that Jack is scum with dram and reck. Saying that because dram bussed reck, and couldn't possibly do the same to another partner, is not an explanation.
scotmany12 wrote:
Nathanael wrote:It's exactly the fact that he bussed that hard once, that makes it unlikely to bus so hard another time, even in the same post.
Why is is unlikely? You have yet to answer this.
I think that scum bussing twice in the same post is unlikely. simple as that. I think it is rarely optimal strategy and even if it is, scum usually doesn't have the gut to do it.
I think the standard townievote/buddyFoS combination is MUCH more likely.
I can't
explain
my argument. I just feel it is common sense. Also, I don't know dram's or reck's meta. I don't know how bushappy he is. I am just judging him based on my expectation on a standard mafiascumplayer (or mafia-player in general) and this expectation doesn't include double busses.

Lowell wrote:I recommend executing jack.
so you come back after one weak of not posting even once, during which time there were 9 pages of content and this is all you can come up with? I really like my scumread on you, after all.
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Post Post #1027 (isolation #97) » Mon Jan 03, 2011 7:27 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:As far as I remember from way back, that's Lowell's meta- town or scum.
and this is Sens defending his lurker-buddy...
SensFan wrote:Unless you can give a non-ongoing game, you really have no meta case at all on Katsuki, and so I'm going to assume it's all useless garbage.
...while attacking the townie-lurker.

I want each consul to either:
a) execute SensFan or
b) tell me how SensFan can possibly be town.
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Post Post #1039 (isolation #98) » Mon Jan 03, 2011 9:09 am

Post by Nathanael »

scotmany12 wrote:
Nathanael wrote:
Lowell wrote:I recommend executing jack.
so you come back after one weak of not posting even once, during which time there were 9 pages of content and this is all you can come up with? I really like my scumread on you, after all.
Why did you ignore Jack's post right above Lowell's? It is just as bad as his. Jack's last post was 8 pages ago, and he hadn't posted in four days.
you are right. Jack is lurking badly. I guess I'll put him back to null
I guess my subconscious reading was that I remembered that Jack had posted some (imo not totally worthless) stuff, while I absolutely don't remember ANY useful contribution from lowell. therefore I only went to check for lowell's posts and didn't notice Jack was missing so long too.
SensFan wrote:Oh right. I completely forgot that I need to think every single lurker is of the same alignment, regardless of the fact no one has any meta evidence for one, while I have several years' worth of meta that tells me lurking is a null tell for Lowell. Or the fact that Katsuki lied in the thread repeatedly. Or the fact that Katsuki replaced out for no apparent reason when the water got hot.

It's also worth noting that I never defended Lowell; I just said the fact he's lurking doesn't make him more likely to be Scum than if he wasn't lurking - something I cannot say about Kat.
that post of mine wasn't meant to show scumpoints on YOU. I already know you are scum. It was meant to strenghten my scum-read on lowell and my townish-null read on katsuki (magua) exactly
because
you are scum.
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Post Post #1061 (isolation #99) » Mon Jan 03, 2011 11:05 pm

Post by Nathanael »

SpyreX.

kill one of: {SensFan, porochaz} or {Lowell, Parama}, although I would prefer one in the first group.
if not, as soon as you are not consul, I'd like a good explanation why you don't think SensFan/porochaz are scum.
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Post Post #1095 (isolation #100) » Wed Jan 05, 2011 11:29 am

Post by Nathanael »

... well, at this point we just have to wait for the consul's decision, don't we?
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Post Post #1105 (isolation #101) » Sun Jan 09, 2011 10:20 am

Post by Nathanael »

VOTE: ribwich

OMG, porochaz was town!
seeing that:
a) there is only one NK
b) scum would never kill porochaz
c) porochaz was a BG
I assume that porochaz successfully protected a townie.

I still think that SensFan is scum.
when I have some time I will reread porochaz and try to figure out who he might have protected.
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Post Post #1136 (isolation #102) » Mon Jan 10, 2011 5:00 am

Post by Nathanael »

SpyreX wrote:Nat needs to die a lot. An extra lot. I was wrong about Jack but to be that vehemently wrong and not saying anything is the prep to back away from it.
I was wrong. yes, it happens, even to me.
what exactly did you expect me to say?
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Post Post #1142 (isolation #103) » Mon Jan 10, 2011 9:45 am

Post by Nathanael »

The Fonz wrote:Hey Nate, you might want to explain why, despite repeatedly stating in bold that the roleclaim was null, you consistently had him as town, or one of the townier players in the game, even though he wasn't really doing anything else that looked townish. Also, why when his lurking was pointed out to you, you moved him from 'town' to 'null' despite the fact that the implication was that lurking was scummy, and the roleclaim was supposedly null. I mean, one null thing and one scummy thing should be leaning scum, shouldn't it?
There was the whole double-bus issue. I just thought it would be unlikely for dram to double bus like that. that was a quite strong town-point I had for jack, which outweighed his useless lurking attitude.

luckily for all of us, SensFanscum is almost totally independent of Jack's flip. I see absolutely no reason not to lynch SensFan today.
Parama would be fine too.

Btw, ribwich, I'd like an explanation for Shanba-consul. Thank you.
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Post Post #1174 (isolation #104) » Tue Jan 11, 2011 9:07 am

Post by Nathanael »

I would agree on a Lowell-lynch at this point.
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Post Post #1176 (isolation #105) » Tue Jan 11, 2011 7:39 pm

Post by Nathanael »

ribwich wrote:
The Fonz wrote:Ah yes, my bad. I'd forgotten how OTT you were about the 'Dram couldn't have been bussing' thing.

However, that raises a new issue of its own- how come you seemed to think it so drastically unlikely that Dram was bussing Jack, but are happy enough to assume that Sens was?
I'd like an answer to this too.
it's different in various kind of ways:
1. dram was ALREADY bussing another member, double-busses are more unlikely than single-busses
2. SensF is a known (at least so it seemed from your discussions, haven't checked it) policy lyncher, especially LaL and such stuff. I do not think he could have done anything else in Jack' direction without attracting tons of meta-suspicion.
3. I had not many scumreads on Jack, the only one was his useless lurking, while I have LOTS* of reasons for Sens to be scum.


*I had made a summary of my case, together with my answer to your post yesterday, MS must have eaten it or I forgot to submit it and closed the browser. will put it together again asap.
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Post Post #1225 (isolation #106) » Tue Jan 18, 2011 12:13 pm

Post by Nathanael »

Magua wrote:
@Nathanael:
Do you still find SensFan as the most scummy person in the game?
yes. but Lowell in my top 3 scumreads too, so I am not at all opposed to lynching him
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Post Post #1261 (isolation #107) » Mon Jan 24, 2011 3:56 am

Post by Nathanael »

Cogito Ergo Sum wrote:
P.S. Your Consul [is] SensFan.
WTF?!

at this point I think Parama is the best execution.

While I do think The Fonz is town, I don't like how he is being put on an "untouchable"-pedestal for the rest of the game. we should be able to reconsider, and I don't think this town is in the condition to do so.
I'd rather have ribwich for tribune tbh. but I think TF already has majority.
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Post Post #1277 (isolation #108) » Tue Jan 25, 2011 5:47 am

Post by Nathanael »

vote scotmany
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Post Post #1293 (isolation #109) » Tue Jan 25, 2011 7:00 pm

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The Fonz wrote:Nate, what is your actual read on Scot?
I have him as townish.
and I want parama to be today's lynch.
and I'd wish you stopped saying "Parama is scummy, but I had a townread on chesskid, so he is town" you hadn't even a whole game-day to read chesskid, and parama is getting worse and worse. you are basically giving parama a free pass for the hole game, just because of your early D1 read.
and I want parama dead.
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Post Post #1301 (isolation #110) » Wed Jan 26, 2011 10:08 am

Post by Nathanael »

Magua wrote:
@Nathanael:
Who is scum with Parama?
Probably SensFan, but I'm not so sure anymore.
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Post Post #1309 (isolation #111) » Wed Jan 26, 2011 6:54 pm

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SensFan wrote:Better speak up, son. Sunday's getting closer and closer.
What exactly do you expect me to say?
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Post Post #1314 (isolation #112) » Thu Jan 27, 2011 6:51 am

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The Fonz wrote:That's actually an excellent point, and probably could have done with being made earlier. Repeatedly vetoing for 'more time' then putting in new, little-discucsed target, forcing you/the tribs/the town to either go along with it, or veto and then have to come up with an even more rushed lynch, is legitimately scummy. (Of course, it's also worth pointing out that town wouldn't have been under such time pressure had you not spent the first few days trying to execute a guy because he was mean to you).
I delayed the lynch for more time, because I wanted to judge Katsuki better. I got a strong townread on him during that period and so decided not to lynch him. so I went for one of my top suspects (powerrox). nobody vetoed. so he died. and please don't forget that you called him obvscum when you first read this game, so probably you would have executed him too.
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Post Post #1319 (isolation #113) » Thu Jan 27, 2011 10:30 am

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The Fonz wrote:@Nate: It didn't get vetoed, but note the actual argument in the post you were responding to: the last-minute execution was scummy because they either had to let it go, or submit a veto and an even more last-minute execution. And me having a scummy read on someone and scum killing them off aren't exactly mutually exclusive, are they? It's not so much the target as the timing.
of course not.
I had timing problem myself.
since town seemed to want katsuki lynch so bad, I just tried to get a little more time to discuss.
then I figured that Powerrox was scummier than Katsuki and executed him.
I would have done that earlier, but I only got my scumread on powerrox and my townread on katsuki last minute.
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Post Post #1334 (isolation #114) » Fri Jan 28, 2011 5:01 am

Post by Nathanael »

SensFan wrote:{claim, claim discussion, looking at alternatives, picking an alternative, claim, etc...}.
since I am not scum, how about we just skip the first two points and go straight at the "looking at alternatives" thing? oooh, right. I know why. you want me to claim because you are scum and need to know my role. haha.
Feysal wrote:However, I will also second ribwich's question about what made Nathanael believe Katsuki/Magua was town. I could maybe guess, but that is for Nathanael to answer.
I found this post genuine. and I didn't like how everybody was pushing katsuki all over the place for nothing at all. I got a lot of scum-driven thing there.
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Post Post #1341 (isolation #115) » Fri Jan 28, 2011 10:34 am

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SensFan wrote:FYI, nothing but a claim will have any hope of swaying my decision. I will be submitting an execution on Nathanael at precisely 15:17 GMT on Sunday.
@ribwich: this is what you get for making SensFan consul. I told you, but you wouldn't listen.
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Post Post #1351 (isolation #116) » Sat Jan 29, 2011 1:03 am

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ribwich wrote:
Nathanael wrote:I found this post genuine. and I didn't like how everybody was pushing katsuki all over the place for nothing at all. I got a lot of scum-driven thing there.
1. What was it about the post that made you think it was genuine? As you can see from my post right below it, I didn't interpret it the same way.
2. In retrospect, do you still think that was a good decision? Do you still think there was a scum-driven thing going on now that you know the alignment of some of the people that were wagoning Kat?

I haven't read Feysal's post yet. I'll read it tomorrow.
ad 1. just a feeling, to be honest. But I already played in a game with Katsuki, where he was lurking like he did, and I did not find his early play scummy but null. therefore this feeling was enough to put him into the "very slightly town"-range and therefore made him a much worse lynch than powerrox (on whom I had a decent scumread)

ad 2. magua is giving me town-vibes still, so in retrospect I think the decision was acceptable. lynching a townie wasn't optimal of course, but powerrox was extremely scummy and I think we would have executed him anyway day after or so.
I think had we lynched Katsuki, and then powerrox, we'd have lost more. As I see it, the scumbags were tacitly agreeing with the lynch. this makes it much more likely to be a town-lynch: had it been scum bussing, they would try to show how much they want the lynch, otherwise what's the point? however, if you just need a mislynch, it's better for scum to do it in a way that doesn't put you in the spotlight.
e.g. this or the general way in which Reck showed approval for the kats-lynch, without committing to it, makes me increasingly sure my day1 decision was correct.


unvote, vote Nathanael
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Post Post #1361 (isolation #117) » Sun Jan 30, 2011 8:13 am

Post by Nathanael »

I am a VT.
I don't know what I could do to defend myself, since most of the people decided long ago I was scum.

and Parama and SensFan are scum. I'm a little wary about Feysal too. as much as I like his defense on me, the last time I did such a full blown point-by-point defense on someone else, I was scum. Don't know if this means anything, but I think it should be said.
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Post Post #1367 (isolation #118) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 9:50 am

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ribwich wrote:Nathaniel, are you accusing Feysal of trying to earn town points by being the one most opposed to your lynch right before the flip, or is it something else about the defense that's making you suspicious of him? Who would you pick between Sens and Parama to be scummier?
I don't know exactly. I just know that the last time I did such a thing as Feysal did, I was scum.
Parama scummiest.

looks like I'm doomed anyway, since everyone holding some power wants me dead.
go town.

here you got my last read in case anyone cares:
town: ribwich, scot, Shanba
townish: SpyreX
null: Fonz, Magua
scummish: SensFan, Feysal
scum: Parama
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Post Post #1369 (isolation #119) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:33 am

Post by Nathanael »

The Fonz wrote:Explain the Shanba read if you would.
I liked all of his posts. I liked the stance he had on me. I like the stance he had on Katsuki
I liked the stance he had on Feysal, I totally see his reasonings and thinking back, I am happy to see Feysal in my "scummish" department.
Even the stances I don't really agree with, like on Parama or Sens (tbh, I am changing my mind about him a little rereading. probably null-scummy) feel genuine and I see absolutely no bad intentions anywhere.

PS: I like my Fonz-null read right now. thinking back I remember another thing I didn't particularly like: how you called the Kaleidoscope-Gambit so strongly. Did it happen recently in one of your games? if yes, forget this (and post a link), if no, you are either the one of the best hunters I've seen or you have inside information.

PPS: Fonz, if you are town, you better veto my execution.
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Post Post #1375 (isolation #120) » Mon Jan 31, 2011 10:09 pm

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scotmany12 wrote:Does anyone else find it strange that nate claimed VT instead of Roman Senator?
omg.

Is my role in any way different from a VT? no. is there any point claiming anything other than VT? no. is there anything more stupid than asking "why did he claim VT instead roman senator"?. yes, but not many things.


I have about 8 hours more to live.
And everybody is either scum or has gone crazy.
We were quite lucky in the beginning, but we will lose this if some of you don't wake up.


Can we PLEASE lynch Parama? He is such obvious scum and everybody knows it, and still you execute me? wow!
@everybody: WHAT EXACTLY DID PARAMA DO TO MAKE YOU FEEL HIM TOWN? has he contributed ANYTHING at all?
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Post Post #1518 (isolation #121) » Sun Feb 20, 2011 12:47 am

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omg. gg scum.
I played horribly. and scum played well. and rest of town played bad too. we deserved to lose.
I think I don't like the consulmaker mechanic too much, tbh. It makes for too many stagnation-periods etc.
While I think it was an experiment worth making, I will probably not play a similar game again. nothing against you, CES, your modding was fine.

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