Open 226: Big Love - Game over! Town wins!

[Ythill]

Hi everyone. And a one-armed hug for Miyu.

I've got a lot of reading to do, will probably take me a couple of days to finish it but I'll be caught up in time to lynch scum before deadline. In the meanwhile, I'll be trying to keep up with current events. Anything specific I should be paying particular attention to?

[Ythill]

Hi again. I have read through the first 22 pages.

Though I have a lot more reading and analysis to do before placing my vote, I don't mind saying that Miyu and mallow seem to be the remaining scum. So far, this view is based entirely on the play of their predecessors, Wacka and Xite. The former made a few very serious slips; the latter seemed to have too much convinient knowledge about who the (now confirmed) scum were long before they were revealed.

I have some strong town reads as well, but I will play those cards close to my chest until my reared is complete. Still interested in reading answers to the question I asked in my last post.

Now... sleep...

[Ythill]

Well now, isn't this game just a hotbed of activity? Post moar, damnit.

I've finished reading through page 33. No major suspect changes, though a D1 town read I had on ZF is faltering a bit as he is looking like sleeper-scum. If that pans out, he could replace mallow on my list. Now that I'm most of the way through D3, I can say that there are a few wagon analyses that are going to be very helpful in confirming or denying my reads.

More tonight after work...

[Ythill]

I'm caught up. No need to make your eyes bleed. I'll be cuddling with my notes over the next few days but I'm well versed enough now to participate. A few comments...

Activity, people. This town needs it badly.

Cheerleading noted. Also considering that this came from the same guy who used the town's laziness to excuse his own earlier. But I digress... I have only ever received one prod, and that one was a mass prod of which I was the only undeserving player in the game. I plan to work my ass off through twillight and then get NKed because I caught the scum. If the rest of the town wants to win, they should try to keep up.

tl;dr = @ZF: IGMEOU + QFT

@Miyu:

I'm glad I finally get to play a game with you on here. LOLing @ people forgetting your gender. Anyway, I'm sorry about your role PM. You're good at the game and I can see why you're swaying some people but Wacka made a couple of damning slips and you've made some less-drastic-but-still-there mistakes in trying to regain the ground he lost for you. I'm still going to do wagon analysis and isos and whatnot, so it's always possible I'll veer off in some other direction but, as it stands right now, I can't see me lynching anyone else at the end of today.

Anyway...

Scum

Miyu
mallow or ZF

Town

Sand
Mu
Dave
Sanx
RC

[Ythill]

Of course you do.

You know I'm not done yet, right?

[Ythill]

chihuahua0

(

don_johnson

, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Robocopter87

, ZeroFang,

yabbaguy

) 5 (L-5)
Muthaa (Sanxion, Xite91,

chihuahua0

) 3 (L-7)

Reverse Simplicity

(Mr.Sandman) 1 (L-9)

Robocopter87

(Muthaa) 1 (L-9)
Wacka Alpaca (

Shattered Viewpoint

) 1 (L-9)
Xite91 (

youngminii

) 1 (L-9)

yabbaguy

(Wacka Alpaca,

millar13

) 2 (L-8)

Not voting:

Fidelis

,

Guthrie

, PaltryExcuse,

Pittbunny

,

Reverse Simplicity

I'm not surprised chi got votes early. Bussing the scum-lover is an excellent strategy, but ideally it woud have been saved for D2. There is probably one scum on this wagon and my guess is ZF. Mallow gets some minor town points here because chi grouped with him. SV looks like he was distancing on Miyu's slot.

chihuahua0

(

don_johnson

, smashbro_of_the_SSS, Xite9) 3 (L-7)

millar13

(

chihuahua0

, ZeroFang, Mr.Sandman,

Robocopter87

, Wacka Alpaca, Sanxion1,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 7 (L-3)

Robocopter87

(Muthaa,

Pittbunny

) 2 (L-8)
Xite91 (

youngminii

) 1 (L-9)

Not voting:

Fidelis

,

Guthrie

,

millar13

, PaltryExcuse,

Reverse Simplicity

,

yabbaguy

Mallow's slot dropped onto chi after the pressure faded; very likely distancing. The scum were very hungry for a lover lynch, maybe even three on this wagon though ZF grouping with chi makes him seem less likely, especially with SV tempting the lynch.

chihuahua0

(smashbro_of_the_SSS) 1 (L-9)

millar13

(ZeroFang, Mr.Sandman, Sanxion1,

chihuahua0

) 4 (L-6)

Robocopter87

(Xite9) 1 (L-9)
Xite91 (

youngminii

,

Pittbunny

,

Fidelis

,

Robocopter87

,

yabbaguy

,

millar13

,

don_johnson

, Wacka Alpaca, Muthaa) 9 (L-1)

Not voting:

Enigma

, PaltryExcuse,

Shattered Viewpoint

,

Zajnet

Seriously town-driven wagon never made it to lynch. If Miyu is scum, then mallow's alignment can be determined from whether Wacka was panic-bussing or praying for a mislynch. Meanwhile, clumsy SV has unvoted the lover and not hammered mallow's slot even though his buddy is quickly becoming the popular third choice. This looks really bad for mallow.

chihuahua0

(smashbro_of_the_SSS,

don_johnson

,

Fidelis

, Sanxion1,

Robocopter87

, ZeroFang) 6 (L-4)

millar13

(Mr.Sandman,

chihuahua0

) 2 (L-8)

Robocopter87

(Xite9) 1 (L-9)
Xite91 (

Switz

,

Pittbunny

,

millar13

, Muthaa,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 5 (L-5)

Not voting:

Enigma

, DavidParker,

yabbaguy

,

Zajnet

, Wacka Alpaca

Now SV jumps on.

Again, likely distancing. Mallow is looking obv-scummy now. Also, check out how long smashbro was voting chi. That's pretty confident for D1.

chihuahua0

(smashbro_of_the_SSS,

don_johnson

,

Fidelis

, Sanxion1,

Robocopter87

, DavidParker,

Zajnet

,

yabbaguy

,

millar13

,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 10 (L-0)

millar13 (Mr.Sandman,

chihuahua0

) 2 (L-8)

Robocopter87

(Xite9) 1 (L-9)
Xite91 (

Switz

,

Pittbunny

, Muthaa, ZeroFang) 4 (L-6)

Not voting:

Enigma

, Wacka Alpaca

So SV was not afraid to hammer, and clearly decided to hammer the scum lover over mallow's slot. More mallow scum points. ZF finally voted mallow's slot when it no longer mattered and I guess I'll have to consider a Miyu town scenario where ZF and mallow are buddies. Hmmmm...

Enigma

(DavidParker) 1 L-8

Shattered Viewpoint

(

Switz

, Mr.Sandman, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Zajnet

, Sanxion, mallowgeno,

don_johnson

,

millar13

,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 9 L-0

Zajnet

(

yabbaguy

) 1 L-8

Not voting:

Enigma, Muthaa

,

Robocopter87

, Wacka Alpaca, ZeroFang

One good VC on D2, FFS? At least it's a

really

good one. I am familliar with SV and one of his alts. A self-hammer from scum-him means that at least one buddy is on his wagon. Hi mallow. I'll keep the others in mind too. Wacka, ZF, and David all stand out as the hey-I'm-not-interested-whistle-whistle minority, but especially the two who aren't voting.

mallowgeno (

Zajnet

,

Robocopter87

,

don_johnson

) 3 L-5
Muthaa (mallowgeno) 1 L-7

Robocopter87

(Mr.Sandman) 1 L-7
Wacka Alpaca (Sanxion, Muthaa) 2 L-6

Zajnet

(

Switz

, ZeroFang) 2 L-6

Not voting: DavidParker,

Enigma

,

millar13

, smashbro_of_the_SSS, Wacka Alpaca

A town threesome on mallow and no scum jumped into the fray. In fact, the wagon fell apart shortly thereafter, and...

mallowgeno (

Zajnet

) 1 L-7
Wacka Alpaca (Sanxion, Muthaa) 2 L-6

Zajnet

(

Switz

, ZeroFang, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

don_johnson

,

Robocopter87

, Mr.Sandman, DavidParker, mallowgeno) 8 L-0

Not voting:

Enigma

,

millar13

, Wacka Alpaca

...bam. Mislynch. How does mallow get away with not noticing his hammer for four days? After Sand correctly pointed out the L-1? I mean, seriously, do you people, as town, often throw votes onto large wagons on D3 without even wondering what the VC is? Plus smash loses an entire pan of townie brownies for not noticing the mod's mistake. (BTW, I edited this quote to show the actual lynch wagon, in case you didn't notice.)

Robocopter87

(mallowgeno, Sanxion, Miyu) 3 L-4
Miyu (

Robocopter87

, Muthaa, DavidParker,

Enigma

,

drmyshottyizsik

) 5 L-2

Not voting: Mr.Sandman, RedCoyote,

Switz

, ZeroFang

Unless one of David/Muutha is scum (and I don't think they are), this VC makes Miyu look bad. Hell, it makes her look bad

even if one of them was scum

. There was a fair amount of scrambling against her lynch but there were no middle-wagons between her and what we see here as the fisrt push on Robo.

mallowgeno (

Enigma

) 1 L-6
Miyu (Muthaa, Mr.Sandman) 2 L-5

Robocopter87

(mallowgeno, Sanxion, Miyu, RedCoyote, ZeroFang,

drmyshottyizsik

, DavidParker) 7 L-0

Sanxion (

Robocopter87

) 1 L-6

Not voting:

Switz

David comes out dirty here, especially if I'm right about Miyu. Other than that, this VC doesn't contain much information yet, but remember it (and the one before it) for future days because it will be important.

Conclusions:

Miyu doesn't look as bad as I thought she would, but not exactly Mother Teresa either. Many of my town reads keep their halos. Mallow is is suddenly the scummiest scum to ever scum. Like, seriously. And since there's no votes on him currently I might as well...

VOTE: mallowgeno

@Miyu:

You mentioned seeing SV self-hammer as scum before. Was there scum on his wagon that time? Link please.

I am interested in forming a voting bloc. With nine players alive and only one scum kill, we need five players to control the game from here on out. Sand, Muutha, David, and Sanx: would you be interested in voting with me and the others I've listed? Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is by refraining from being involved in any wagons larger than L-3 until we five decide who we would like to lynch? Thanks in advance for for your answers.

[Ythill]

What does that mean?

[Ythill]

ITT mallow wants me to help him find flaws in my own logic and ZF is all... "Them? I'm not with them."



Two scum between these three and we have a mislynch to spare even if the lovers die. Looks like a town win.

[Ythill]

The bird. Why?

[Ythill]

@David:

I'm not going to rate my town reads so you can stop asking. Again, why do you want to know?

@ZF:

Meta me.

@Miyu:

David

is

inexperienced, yes. What's your point? Nothing about Xite was obv-town. He fake-claimed in the course of rolefishing Millar, FFS. Did you even look at my VC analysis?

[Ythill]

Did I say it was an excuse? You set up a n00b-or-scum false dilemma which I found funny because David

actually is

new. Ooops.

Besides, from my reread it looks like you're either scum or convinced that inactivity and bandwagoning are strong scumtells, so I really don't care what you think of David. By that measure over half this player list is scum.

[Ythill]

Way to latch on to your buddy's misrep, scumbag.

[Ythill]

Chi

:

He was a straight shooter and very new. He buddied to one town, one scum, and ZF. Chi attacked 7/17 players including Muutha, Xite, and 5 now-confirmed townies. Of them, he placed a vote or FoS on four (including Muutha and Xite), plus a RV on David. Most of his attacking was reserved for Millar and purported buddy Robo. When Xite came under pressure, chi made his only major stance change of the game, connecting Xite to both of his other suspects. Opportunism or distancing? Post #472 suggests the latter.

Mallow's slot is implicated here. To a lesser extent, Mutha, David, and ZF are also tarnished. Also note that the combination of an apologetic late confirm and behavior that seemed almost purposefully scummy suggest that chi knew he was going to be bussed. I believe that his goal was to out as many lovers as possible and then take the fall as soon as a buddy came under pressure.

SV

:

Though he's more experienced, there isn't a lot of depth to SV's play. He buddied up to or defended chi and 2 town. He Attacked 6/17 players including Xite/mallow, chi, and 4 town. Of those he voted Xite, chi, himself, and two town, plus a RV on Wacka. The only links he drew between players were town to town. While most of his votes were either hammers or placed on growing wagons, his Xite vote came as the pressure was fading. Furthermore, he took a last jab at mallow before self-hammering, which struck me as the distancing of scum who has already given up.

Mallow and, to a lesser extent, Wacka are implicated by this iso.

Fidelis

:

In reading the above isos, I made a realization. SV attacked post-claim Fidelis briefly as an excuse to hammer chi but didn't mention him before that. Chi didn't mention him at all. Thing is, the scum knew that Fidelis was linked to chi and, from their Pov, he was the worst possible lynch because it was as costly as bussing without any of the town-cred. I expect that the scum either buddied up to him or avoided him like the plague. Wacka, ZF, and Sanx only had nice things to say about him. Xite defended himself from Fidelis but otherwise ignored him. RC's predecessor ignored him completely. Sandman attacked Fidelis; Muutha voted him: town points for both slots.

D1 Bussing

:

The scum might have started bussing chi early, but I am

certain

that they had a lot to do with his lynch at the end of the day. There was a strong false dilemma going between the two VIs with Xite @ L-2 and chi had been mostly forgotten when the votes started quickly shifting his way. At that time, smashbro and a townie were already parked on chi. Smash had gotten on early with a decent case and stayed there all day. The second wagon started growing with a flurry of votes and attacks from now-confirmed town, and a vote from Sanx who slipped on in a sheep suit.

Immediately after that, Wacka and Sandman put on the breaks and Xite requested replacement. Things slowed down considerably. ZF stopped lurking, posted that quadruple eyebleed of IoA and jumped on chi, citing lurking and wagoning (heh), only to remove his vote in his next post

while still listing chi as his top suspect

. David jumped on with no explanation whatsoever, then another townie. That's L-3. Wacka kept defending chi and stalling. Town players dropped two more votes to make it L-2. More defense from Wacka, and an attempt to recreate the Xite counter-wagon. SV lurked for six hours before dropping the hammer.

The scum on this wagon is either ZF or Sanx. However, SV stalling before dropping the hammer suggests that he was giving one of his other buddies the chance to do it, probably the one who came up with the contingiency plan in the QT. If that's the case (a lot of assumption, I know), then only one other partner could have been on the wagon and Wacka is cleared as scum because there's no was SV was waiting for the defender to quick-hammer.

So, if we accept the theory that SV was waiting for a buddy, the scumteam are one of ZF/Sanx + mallow. If we believe that SV simply got cold feet then we can add Wacka to the first group but mallow is still implicated.

[Ythill]

Wacka

Lurked through the early game. Attacked 6/17 players including Xite and 5 confirmed town. He buddied to Sandman and 2 town, plus he defended both scum. I'm noting that he attacked Millar and Xite most aggressively D1, and they were two claimed lovers who were unknown to the scum. He also fished for lovers here and there. I don't like the slow lean he made off of millar and onto Xite because it felt unnatural. He wasted a lot of words qualifying his play and trying to seem innocent, and then replaced out once he'd been seriously accused. Plus there are a few scumslips...

Won't the mafia just NOT kill Xite now? Or am I missing something that makes Xite irresistable to being killed by mafia?
Let's say the mafia just doesnt kill him, then the town goes with your logic, and lynches him... now we (Possibly) have 2(or 3, or 4 if both are lovers with diff people) dead townies + mafia kill.
Is that what you want to (Possibly) die for?

Or again, am I missing something?

This is written over the course of trying to argue that Millar is a better lynch than Xite. It reads very much like he knows that Xite is town but there's been no confirmation and, two posts later, Wacka votes Xite simply because he's ahead of Millar in the VC.

This meant that the town was not scum hunting, due to an immense diversion that was Millar. This distraction had to be removed in order to move forward as a town.
In such a large game, we can justify a HORRIBLE townie lynch, to make progress on the next day - on the theory that a full town with one HORRIBLE player is worse than a full town - 2 townies.

Here he sounds like he knows that Millar is town, but there's been no cardflip.

Xite, I agree with a person who posted that your plan felt "Made up" on the spot. that plan DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.
Think of it, why would the mafia kill you again? YOU LOOK LIKE MAFIA.
Whenever I play as town, I try to be two steps ahead.
Whenever I play as mafia, I try to be THREE steps ahead.

Again, phrasing suggests he knows Xite's alignment to be town

while calling him scum

. And it also reads like scum ego pooh-poohing a dumb plan. It's disconcerting that iso evidence is showing a disconnect like this between my top two suspects.

In my experience, most people who request to be replaced out in a rage are scum, trying to play to a fearful town of killing a townie.

I just posted this one for the lulz.

[Ythill]

UNVOTE: mallow
VOTE: ZeroFang

[Ythill]

Bandwagoning is a scumtell. Town has absolutely no reason to be throwing their vote around all over the place...

Not true. Vote movement and grouping is the

best

way to catch scum. Enough people have bandwagoned in this game that town

must

have done it. If town have done it, then it is

not

a reliable scumtell.

Lurking is one.

No, it isn't. Power roles lurk. Overloaded/busy/bored town lurk. Again, enough people have lurked in this game that town

must

have done it.

You labeled him as a newbie; so yes you are using it as an excuse.

No, I'm not. David is my town list because his play demonstrates that he is not scum.

You were the one

who said that he was either scum or new, which is a false dilemma. I was just pointing out that you should meta people when picking your false dilemmas because, ironically, David

is

new, and therefore your argument is silly.

Umm, ythill, you realize it's MIYU who replaced Wacka!?!?!? Not zerofang.. Yet you have Miyu pinned as town!?

i think you are confused.

The confusion is yours, probably because of your own assumptions. I know who replaced who, and I don't have Miyu as town. Let me explain my vote...

My initial reread gave me scumreads on Miyu, mallow, and ZF. Of them, Miyu was the scummiest but she had a bunch of votes already so I didn't get on her bandwagon. VC analysis didn't give much evidence to change my townreads, but it did implicate mallow heavily and he had no votes so I voted him. Scum isos and a couple of context reads further implicated mallow. Then I started my isos on living players with Wacka and found a disconnect: if the slips made by Wacka are accurate then it is suggested that mallow is town. This seems odd to me because both are individually scummy. Seeing that votes have shifted to mallow, I didn't want him close to lynch while I figure this out, so I moved my vote to the one suspect who (1) is likley scum with either Miyu or mallow and (2) doesn't have a wagon on him.

Over the next few days I will be continuing my isos and then I will be voting to lynch one of my suspects.

[Ythill]

Make moar sense plz.

[Ythill]

@Sand:

Please comment on my #1166. If the strongest evidence against Miyu's slot are the scumslips where Wacka revealed knowing Xite to be town, how can mallow be scummy with Miyu? I am not trying to discredit your read but, rather, trying to refine mine.

[Ythill]

*crickets*

[Ythill]

Ythill, I took them more as Wacka legitimasing Xite not being killed at night by mafia, which would happen if he was town. However, looking back, that is taking them out of context.

Exactly the thought process I had during my initial reread and then my iso of Wacka. And yet on all other fronts mallow's slot looks like scum. I am going to iso Xite/mallow tonight and maybe find some answers. I appreciate you going over this with me.

@Miyu:

My argument is that wagoning and lurking are not reliable scumtells because of the reasons I gave for town to do both and because town have done them

in this game

. Your argument is, "Nuh-uh." Good job.

The scum-or-n00b dilemma I was talking about:

If by some miracle he is town, then he needs to learn how to play.

[Ythill]

Xite

If he's scum, this guy's play is more nuanced than his dead buddies. He attacked 9/17 players including Wacka, Sandman, Muutha, 4 town and both dead scum. Of them, he voted for Muutha, 2 town, and both dead scum. He buddied to or defended Wacka, 2 town, and Chi. There are a ton of reliable scumtells in his play. He buddied to Don shortly after calling him scum, attacked and buddied to Wacka in the same post, spent more energy arguing for his own townieness than looking for scum, and directed the cop to himself. His fakeclaim-plan didn't make much sense as a scumtrap, but it made perfect sense as lover-fishing. Furthermore, he is heavily connected to both dead scum, including a RV on SV, two very empty votes on Chi that seemed like distancing, and a distancing scum-lean on SV for no apparent reason, all from a guy who had no problem explaining his votes and attacks on town. He also tried to stall the Chi lynch while agreeing that Chi looked scummy, softening his read from "most scummy" to "gut read but more n00b than scum" in the process.

The following exchange seems extremely suspicious to me...

Now you are claiming love now, Xite? How is it all apart of a plan?

VOTE: Xite91

I see a OMGUS vote coming...

Uhm, chihuahua why do you see an omgus coming exactly?

Chi never answered the question and Xite didn't bring it up again. From the perspective where both are scum, this looks an awful lot like Chi (who was acting obv-scummy on purpose) trying to rein in his crazy wildcard of a buddy by reminding him to bus. In his very next post, Chi moved his vote to someone else like none of this had ever happened.

Mallow

If he's scum, he's got a solid game and seems less concerned with his own survival than he is making sure that he doesn't leave connections to his buddies. He attacked 7/17 players including Miyu, Muutha, David, RC, 4 town, and SV. He voted all of them except one of the dead town. He defended or buddied to 9/17 players including Sand, smash, Sanx, ZF, Wacka/Miyu, David, and 3 town. The biggest alignment tell against mallow was the way he replaced in: he claimed that he was going to reread, then posted fourteen hours later without commenting on anything but his predecessor's play, then spent an hour and a half putting together a case against Robo.

Very

scummy. His late-day vote on doomed SV reeked of bussing (he sheeped the whole wagon). His suggestion of an early massclaim was bad, as were his stance changes on David and Miyu. When Zero pointed out his bad stance on Miyu, his response was the pure blather of a liar who got too smart for his own britches.

I still don't understand the disconnect between Miyu and mallow (the one Sand and I were talking about) especially because, individually, each of these slots is obv-scum. However, mallow has come out extremely scummy in every aspect of my analysis so far and I am now convinced that if only one of them is mafia, it's mallow. The only other town point I see for the slot is that theory about Xite's plan being too balsy for scum to try, but that's WIFOM and, as we can see from SV's

I hate everyone

post, players on this site have started to learn that lots of people think scum will not draw attention to themselves.

I intend to iso Miyu and ZF before the day ends but mallow

really

needs to be lynched so...

UNVOTE: ZF
VOTE: mallowgeno

[Ythill]

Miyu

Miyu is an excellent player. She works hard, is good at manipulating people, and is carefully null. Miyu attacked 6/12 players, including Sand, Sanx, Muutha, David, and 2 town; but she has only voted David and 1 town. She buddied/defended mallow, and 2 town. There are some minor point against her. Her eye-bleed replacement was populist, and some bits seemed to indicate creative writing. Miyu did an iso of her predecessor despite the belief that it is pointless and she distanced from dead scum while doing so. And attacked the hammer of a wagon she was on.

Like I said in one of my posts when I replaced in this game. I had just played in a game with Xite, and she (I believe Xite = a she;) exhibited similar behavior. Which I found out that this game and that game seem to of been running at the same time; as she bowed out of this one for the same reason as that one.

I found this during the iso and it struck me as odd. Miyu was arguing that because a player replaced out of two games simultaneously for the same reason, that the slot is town in this game. That doesn't make any sense at all. The circumstances of replacement have nothing to do with mallow's alignment.

My main problem with Miyu's play is her mixed attack and defense, which seems like posturing. She makes long posts while lurker hunting and keeps her vote parked while decrying wagoning. What she calls scumtells are really just not-Miyu tells so what she's really arguing is Miyu=/=scum. Now, it

may

be true that Miyu believes these are the be-all-end-all of scumhunting, but I'm sure she's played with plenty of people who lurk and bandwagon as town, especially the latter, and she's ignoring my point about town lurking in this game despite the fact that she mentioned it before I did. Note that Robo was hardly lurking and his flagrant wagoning was only on D1. David hasn't been lurking either, though a glance at his bandwagoning just made me go hmmmmm...

UNVOTE: mallow
VOTE: David Parker

Hey David, will you please tell me why you were in the last half of every lynch wagon except SV's? And why you were throwing your vote away the rest of the time? Do you believe that being suspected by others is a scumtell?

[Ythill]

Yeah... dropping David off my town list as of this post.

[Ythill]

Bandwagoning is a scumtell. Town has absolutely no reason to be throwing their vote around all over the place and .. bandwagoning. Inactivity is not a scumtell, however extremely annoying. Lurking is one.

There you specifically called them scumtells. Now you are saying that you think they are just anti-town, and that you are aware that town have done them in this game? You can't have your cake and eat it too. I'm not wholly convinced you're scum, and I don't intend on hanging you today, but this style of argument is not going to help your cause.

And I already pointed out where you used the circumstances of replacement to argue that Xite is town. The comment I quoted was in direct response to me posting, "Nothing about Xite was obv-town." You are as familliar with the evidence as I am, so please don't insult my intelligence. What does similar behavior have to do with Xite's alignment?

[Ythill]

Changing votes =/= jumpy.

[Ythill]

Yes. I said it is

a

scumtell, not

THE

scumtell.

I don't care what you said, I care what you

did

. Your reread posts contained a total of 54 bullet points. 25 of those were IoA/null/filler, 3 were towntells. Of the 26 points where you called somone scummy for something, 16 of them were based on lurking and/or wagoning. That's more than all the other tells you listed combined. Since then, you've posted 19 specific accusations; of those, 10 have revolved around lurking and/or wagoning. Again, more than all other tells combined. So, either you think that lurking and wagoning are the be-all-end-all of scumtells or you are up to something else. My

theory

is that you are playing strategically by calling the polar opposite of your own play scummy. If it's true, I don't think that theory proves that you are mafia, but it is something to keep an eye on.

I did read all of your posts (several times, actually) but your isos #1-3 keep making my eyes glaze over. That's beside the point. You mentioned

both

Xite's similar behavior

and

the similar circumstances of replacement. Neither of those things suggest that the slot is town. If true, these things might suggest that certain behaviors are not scumtells from Xite, which means your read should be null. Unless maybe I missed some other reasons you gave for that town read?

ytill, what's your defense of "changing votes" so frequently

I don't see much point in defending against mud-slinging, but I suppose I can humor you...

Search my posts and you will find a few interesting things. You will see that I don't random vote but that I try to put a vote out as early as possible unless the game is in LYLO. You will see that, once I get my vote out, I move it often but rarely remove it entirely. You will see that I use it as a marker for my suspicions, and that I move it as new points are discovered through my analyses. You'll also find places in MD where I argue that vote-movement and grouping is incredibly useful for finding scum, because it creates a game full of dynamic movement and gives the scum more chances to create patterns that reveal their alignments. Now... compare those habits and opinions to my play here.

I replaced in and performed a context reread which lead to me being most suspicious of Miyu, due to what looked like scumslips from Wacka; I would have voted Miyu but I didn't want to place her close to lynch until I was done catching up. Then I performed a wagon analysis which didn't make Miyu's slot look very scummy to me but made mallow's look really bad; I voted mallow. Then I started doing iso rereads. When I did Wacka's, I found evidence suggesting that only one of mallow-Miyu is scum so I removed my vote, placing it temporarily on my third suspect, ZF. A reread of mallow's slot was next up, and it verified the other information I'd found about him and made me realize that if only one of he and Miyu is scum, it's him; so I put my vote back. In continuing my rereads, I was examining Miyu's points and found that one of them against David was valid (and something I missed in my wagon analysis, probably because of confirmation bias). The mod also said she'd be extending the deadline so I figured there was time for more information gathering and moved my vote to DP in an effort to learn more about his alignment, Miyu's, and the alignments of others who reacted to the new lynch prospect.

My votes have flowed from the evidence and my reasoning has been absolutely transparent, except maybe the info gathering motivation on David which, by definition, needs to be tacit to be effective. Those who are calling me out for it are either scum, OMGUSy townies, or bad at mafia. I don't think it's a towntell, especially from me because I do it across my meta, but it certainly doesn't make me scum.

[Ythill]

Self voting is a null tell. I've seen townies do it

I think roughly half of the playerlist has lurked at one point or another.

Lurking is a scumtell.

Lurking and bandwagoning are not town actions; and should not be encouraged. Regardless of whether or not they have been done by confirmed town previously, does not matter.

Hmmmm....

[Ythill]

One more thing... Miyu, are you interested in a bet? If you're town, I'll buy you dinner. If you're scum, you buy.

[Ythill]

Best of luck to you.

[Ythill]

The point of the quotes is that you called something a null tell because you have seen town do it and then called something else a scumtell in spite of the fact that you have seen town do it. Does not compute.

I'll take that bet.

Win/win.

[Ythill]

What?

[Ythill]

If you're going to copy other people, you should probably wait until they make valid points. Also, I thought your towniness was relatively obvious during my reread.

[Ythill]

Hi hito. Thanks for replacing.

In case anyone is wondering, I dropped back from my spammy work ethic because of the deadline extension. I still intend to iso ZF and have now added David to the list as well. I'll probably get to those soon, tonight or tomorrow-ish.

I may have to step my game up!

This is pleasant news.

[Ythill]

ZF

An aggressive player, ZF has attacked 15/18 slots including Xite/mallow, Sanx, Sand, Muutha, smash/RC, David, Wacka/Miyu, 6 town, chi, and SV. Of those, voted Sandman (RV), Xite, Muutha, 3 town, and chi. He buddied with or defended smash, Wacka, David, 3 town, and SV. Early in the game, he redirected attacks from SV to Xite, which makes him seem unlikley to by mallow's buddy. However, his first chi vote was dirty; he argued that lurking was a null tell when it was used against SV (in spite of XF's lurker hate, which rival's Miyu's); and he created a bad Wacka-Robo dilemma. I didn't like the way he milked townie cred out of being on the chi wagon until the end, but I agree that scum might be hesitant to stop bussing the treacherous lover after it's already become inevitable. ZF stalling the Miyu lynch

could be

telling, because it was similar to the way he stalled chi, but it might be nothing.

Robo said millar usually acts sane as a townie. Millar acted quite insanely this time. Meta suggests that he's not townie.

Cognitive dissonance. ZF supposedly believed that Robo and Millar were buddies. Why would he be basing his view of Millar's alignment on Robo's meta information? If it accurately points to Millar-scum, why would Robo-scum bring it up? This statement makes no sense from someone who believes they are scum together.

Not much of a conclusion here. ZF has dropped a few scumtells but nothing damning. He's probably not buddies with mallow, may be with Miyu or someone else, but I don't think he should be our lynch today.

[Ythill]

David

Paltry needed a sump-pump, that is all. David has been a little more active. He's attacked 9/18 slots including Wacka/Miyu, mallow, Sanx, 4 town, and both dead scum. Of those he voted all of them except Sanx and SV. He's buddied to or defended Xite, RC, ZF, and 4 town. Though I agree that David's entrance was strong, it was also populist and contained some rolefishing. Overall, he's formed convenient opinions and hasn't really looked for answers. His bandwagoning is atrocious, and is the type that benefits scum (late votes on lynch wagons, safe votes at all other times). His behavior towards me was very strange: he agreed with my scum read on ZF two posts after calling him town, and he later claimed that he was suspicious of me at first though his posts at the time of my entrance demonstrate the opposite to be true.

Oh dear, a couple wall posts that I skimmed and no vote counts since L-3 so I missed it.

Oh well. I'm happy with this lynch or I wouldn't be on the list of players voting for him.

This reads like a mafioso who wants townie-cred for bussing.

I dunno, I no longer find him as scummy as Shattered/Enigma so not going to build a case there.

Here's where David subtly added SV to his suspicion list. No previous mention except an ambiguous "i like you" during his entrance. The main thing that happened in the interim is that SV started getting votes. What makes it doubly strange is what David said three days later...

Wait, SV just self-voted and claimed scum. Interesting. I never even got the case on him being scum. Oh well.

If he didn't get the case and he didn't post one of his own, why did David use SV as the bar for scumminess when discussing another suspect just three days prior? And is he really excusing himself for not lynching scum?

[Ythill]

• My initial reread implicated Miyu and mallow. Also ZF.
  
• My VC analysis implicated mallow and David. Also Miyu, ZF, and RC.
  
• The Chi iso implicated mallow. Also Muutha, David, and ZF.
  
• The SV iso implicated mallow. Also Miyu.
  
• The Fidelis situation implicated: Miyu, ZF, and Sanx. Also mallow and RC.
  
• The D1 lover-bus implicated one of ZF/Miyu/Sanx/David + mallow (in hindsight, it looks to be David + mallow).
  
• The Wacka iso made Miyu look scummy, but if she's scum, mallow is town.
  
• The Xite/mallow isos confirmed that the slot is very scummy.
  
• The Miyu iso showed her to be a strategic player and slightly scummy, but nothing damning. Plus opened my eyes to David.
  
• The ZF iso made him look a little scummy, but also presented a couple of town caveats and ruled him out as buddies with mallow.
  
• The David iso made him look very scummy and presented no solid town evidence.

Mallow was at least lightly implicated by 8/11 analyses. He was among those most implicated by 6/11 and was the lone preson to receive that designation in three of them. Plus the extent to which he was implicated by the VCs (which tend to be reliable) is very extensive. His iso is the worst of the one's I've done. The only things that suggest he is town are the fact that two other suspicious players are obviously not buddies with him. Considering the evidence, I think these points go further towards clearing Miyu and ZF then they do towards clearing Mallow.

Though Miyu was at least lightly implicated by 7/11 analyses, she was among those most implicated by only 2/11 and was never the lone person to receive that designation. Wacka's play suggests that she is not on a scumteam with my top suspect. Her own iso is very null.

ZF was at least lightly implicated by 6/11 analyses, but he was only among those most implicated by 1/11 and was never the lone person to receive that designation. His iso contains both scum and towntells and, just like Miyu, he is obviously not connected to my top suspect.

David was at least lightly implicated by 5/11 analyses and was among those most heavily implicated by 2/11. His iso looks really bad though and, in hindsight, I see no caveats pointing to a town alignment.

The remaining scum are mallow and David.

My vote is on David now but I will gladly change it to mallow if that is the preference. Personally, I am interested in lynching soon, but I have no problem waiting for hito to catch up first.

It is possible that Miyu and ZF are scum together, but far less likley than a mallow-David team. So... it looks like I'll be buying Miyu dinner.

[Ythill]

Then read your iso. It's all there.

[Ythill]

Do you have a different take on the evidence that lead me to that conclusion? In brief, Wacka's most suspicious moments were a few posts that seemed like scumslips, the majority of which suggest that mallow's slot is town. Meanwhile, mallow is obv-scum.

People need to post and vote. We have five days until deadline.

[Ythill]

That.. makes no sense.

Hito got it mostly right.

Fact is, I don't

know

mallow's alignment, or Miyu's, or anyone's except mine, so I've tried to weigh the evidence. Most people, no matter what their alignment, are going to seem scummy in one way or another, whether it's because of suboptimal/strategic play, bad logic that seems false, the bad luck of being in the wrong spot during a VC, or beacuse that person is actually mafia. Wacka did some things that seemed scummy to me, the worst of which were the three places his statements made it seem like he knew people's alignments before they were revealed (I quoted them in #1166). In two of those three, he sounded as if he knew mallow was town.

This might have happened for several reasons. If Miyu is town, then it might have been the result of bad writing or overconfidence from Wacka. If Miyu is scum, then it might have been a real slip, and therefore prove that mallow is town Or it might have been extremely crafty distancing on Wacka's part. I know enough about that guy to know he's not a master of subtlety, so I ruled out the last option. Then I read Xite, mallow, and Miyu to determine which of the former it was more likley to be. What I found is that Xite and mallow looked

really

scummy (worse than anyone else, by far) and Miyu was kinda meh. Therefore, my conclusion is that Wacka was being dumb/overconfident, Miyu is town, and mallow is scum with someone else.

Now, it is

possible

that I am wrong. If mallow is town then Miyu is back on the table as a suspect, but there's not much point in discussing that today.

I want to come in an make some super convincing post, but I'm just no match for those intellecutal muscles of his. Honestly I'm not even trying to butter him up, these are just really solid posts.

Orly? I'm not that easy...

[Ythill]

Goodposting. Sanx seemed obv-town to me. I agree that RC has been a little empty and too trusting, but nothing really stood out as a scumtell during my initial reread and the slot has been pretty clean on the VCs. I might take a closer look at him tomorrow if I'm still alive, and someone else probably should if I am not.

If you're looking for pre-colored VC analysis, you can find mine in #1145. I didn't do every VC, but I think I got all of the major swings, labeled with mod-iso numbers in case you want to cross-reference. Of course you'll have to pretend my name isn't in green, but that should be no problem.

[Ythill]

UNVOTE: David
VOTE: mallowgeno

[Ythill]

Heh. Scummy is

not

a manner of speaking. Why can't you simply give a summary of your opinions? Like a list of suspects with a few lines about why you suspect each? The closest you've come to doing so was #1121, which was empty of reasoning and posted more than two weeks ago.

@Miyu:

A better question might be, how does it not make sense to you? I've explained twice and hito did a decent job too.

[Ythill]

Sorry I've been absent, I've had houseguests. Anyway, I'm aware of the deadline and will be more active over the next ~24 hours.

Ythill, I'm curious in your specific thoughts on ISO 34.

It's odd, and apparently something I overlooked. It feels forced, is posted almost in spite of the current topics, and mallow seems very uncomfortable discussing the town-read with Enigma, who picks up on it as a tell. I think it reinforces my mallow-scum theory substantially, though I'm not sure if it would count as evidence for or against David if mallow is scum. On the one hand, it's a little too obvious and unnecesarry to be buddy-protection. On the other hand, it may have been a blunder.

Ythill: if you're town, please understand why I'm saying this and don't take it personally.

I don't, and it's true that my scum-meta favors bussing. However, it is also true that the one time that anyone has made this particular meta-argument against me, he was scum. I agree that I shouldn't get town points based on being correct with a read, but I also don't like fearmongering. Worse than your post, though, is David's reaction to it.

@Miyu:

Will you be hammering mallow before the deadline falls?

[Ythill]

FFS, why do you people sign up for games if they don't want to play?

[Ythill]

The one thing niggling me there though is the plan, which I still don't see as a being concoted by scum.

Read it again from the point of view of scum trying to determine whether millar was actually a lover or a townie running a gambit. The plan was just a sloppy lie to explain his behavior.

[Ythill]

Just over twelve hours left to hammer, or today will end without a lynch. Those of you are not voting mallow have had plenty of time to push your alternatives and it's not happening. Lynch please.

[Ythill]

I'm here now if you want to ask me about anything.

[Ythill]

Who's your top suspect for last scum if mallow flips scum...

David is, although I'd seriously consider that point you asked me about (mallow's explicit buddying) before lynching him. If I'm right about mallow, Miyu is almost certainly town and ZF probably is too. Red has recently appeared on my radar, so he'd probably be my second choice if I found the buddying-caveat on David to be a conclusive towntell, but I haven't looked very closely at him and would need to do so before running him up.

...and what is your pick for scumteam if mallow flips town?

I haven't been looking for links outside of dead scum and my top suspects because I don't want to accidentally out our last pair of lovers before they are ready. However, if mallow is town, Miyu looks even worse because it means that Wacka's "scumslips"

could be

legitimate. I'd pressure her pretty hard, plus David and Red. Again, most of this is based on individual behavior.

[Ythill]

This is pleasant news. In case I die tonight...

Check out my previous post for pointers on what to do depending on the cardflip. If mallow is scum, Miyu is town; this is important because there's a lot of suspicion against her and so I can see the rest of you forgetting the Wacka-caveat. Use my analyses (FFS) but also look into the people I skipped over. Lovers should consider claiming tomorrow, especially if mallow is town. I guess that's everything.

Goodnight.

[Ythill]

David? Really?

We are in lover LYLO, meaning that three town deaths are possible and would end the game with a scum win. I think the lovers should claim but, before they do, everyone should list their top two scumpicks in popcorn fashion. I'd like Miyu to go first.

[Ythill]

I've been working on VC analyses with the new cardflips and there are some interesting developments. I'm going to wait until after lover claims to post them though, so I don't have to do them twice. Four new alignments are going to be revealed and this game is going to break open.

@Miyu:

You're not very good at counting. Should I assume that your top two are Sanx/Hito? Who would you like to go next in the popcorn FoS? Also, you are

so

buying me dinner.

[Ythill]

@Ythill:

How about you

not

be a narcissistic asshole for once in your life.

I tried that once. It sucked.

[Ythill]

I guess doing this popcorn style is pointless. Everyone list your top two suspects in your next post please, and say whether you are in favor of lover claims.

My suspects are Miyu and Red.

[Ythill]

You're funny, hito. ZF looks town at this point. Did you check out the VCs yet?

People need to post.

[Ythill]

My nagging was for the people who haven't posted their suspects, FWIW.

[Ythill]

Heh. Sanx is town too.

We have yet to hear from him, Sandman, and Red. C'mon people, now is not the time to lurk if you're town.

[Ythill]

You know I had a root canal today, right?

I'm not going to start arguing for why people are town. He just is.

[Ythill]

You also hope I can't show that you're scum, but that's not very likley either. You really should have killed me last night.

[Ythill]

Of course you're going to say that. However, the facts are compelling. Not only does mallow's flip negate the caveat from yesterday, but other new information has surfaced as well. If you actually are town, you will have some work to do convincing me. I wish I could say more, but the lurkers have brought this game to a stop. One more day before prods can be sent out.

Even if I am wrong about Miyu, at least one town player must be stalling. This is not acceptable, as it is wasting our time before deadline. Post your scumpicks. Now.

I've been doing analysis behind the scenes and I'm no longer completely sure about Red. Miyu is still my #1 suspect by a long shot though.

[Ythill]

Would be nice if we could move on from this stage already.

QFT.

Sanx will qualify for a prod in about an hour. His lurking is ridiculous, especially considering that he's prob-town. I've got several pages of analysis just sitting on my drive, waiting. And my patience is wearing thin.

[Ythill]

Mod: please prod Sanx.

[Ythill]

Sorry hito, you can stop distancing now. I'm not going to wait another day for Sanx to post or get replaced, and I'm certainly not waiting for a replacement to catch up. If Sanx is scum (which I doubt) then here's a big, fat congratulations to him for lurking his way out of giving suspicions.

Claim: lover with hito.

Unless the scum have the balls to counter-claim, that means I am now confirmed town. I

love

being confirmed town.

Remember ZF's comment after I replaced in, the part where he said I was sitting up a little group of players with me as the leader? Yeah... that. Well, actually there are two leaders. Two of the the five of you remaining are scum and, if you're one of the townies in that pool, then I hope you'll understand that allowing us to take control of this game is the town's best chance of winning. We're both reasonably intelligent and have a good work ethic. More importantly, we are not manipulating you.

Over the next few days, hito and I are going to determine which of you are scum and which are town. Nobody votes. Use FoS if you want to mark your suspicions. After the decision has been made, we'll vote as a group. At the end of today, we are going to lynch scum and then we are going to die. There will be no new information unless the game is over so, tomorrow, the most trusted of you will lead the others to lynch the second person we agree upon at the end of today.

Although we have no ulterior motives, we are both capable of being wrong. As a town member of the unconfimed, your job is to find every one of our mistakes and bad assumptions. Play devil's advocate. Suggest alternate theories.

Here's a little statement to each of you, then I'm going to start throwing up a bunch of analysis. Sorry about your eyes.

@Sandman:

If you're scum, you've played an incredible game. Meaning that you seem most likley to be town from where I'm sitting. Thanks for the hammer yesterday. Sorry I was wrong.

@Sanx:

Post moar.

@Red:

You confuse me. From some angles, you look obv-scummy. From others, you look spotless. One thing I didn't like was the way you followed me onto a townie yesterday. I'm not infallible. If you're town, we need your brain. I'm watching you closely.

@ZF:

I think about how I came into this thread with my gut on fire for you and Miyu, and I wonder what that felt like for you if you're actually scum with her. I've started looking at the data and there still some interesting things pointing to that team. Then again, there was a caveat or two. I think we'll be chatting a lot today.

@Miyu:

If I was a viglante, you'd already be dead. I've been in this situation before with someone who was town. He argued plainly and dilligently and, over the course of several pages, proved his alignment to me, which won us the game. I

will

listen to you, but I'm not going to fall for craplogic, be swayed by rhetoric, or swoon before AtE. And you have no grounds for OMGUS.

[Ythill]

VC Analysis

I've copied the old ones and added the new flips/confirms. Though I put the whole thing in a quote tag, all of the analysis between the counts is new. Below the big quote box, I added select counts from D5.

chihuahua0

(

don_johnson

, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Robocopter87

, ZeroFang,

yabbaguy

) 5 (L-5)

Muthaa

(Sanxion,

Xite91

,

chihuahua0

) 3 (L-7)

Reverse Simplicity

(Mr.Sandman) 1 (L-9)

Robocopter87

(

Muthaa

) 1 (L-9)
Wacka Alpaca (

Shattered Viewpoint

) 1 (L-9)

Xite91

(

youngminii

) 1 (L-9)

yabbaguy

(Wacka Alpaca,

millar13

) 2 (L-8)

Not voting:

Fidelis

,

Guthrie

,

PaltryExcuse

,

Pittbunny

,

Reverse Simplicity

One of Red/ZF is scum distancing on the early Chi wagon.

chihuahua0

(

don_johnson

, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Xite9

) 3 (L-7)

millar13

(

chihuahua0

, ZeroFang, Mr.Sandman,

Robocopter87

, Wacka Alpaca, Sanxion1,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 7 (L-3)

Robocopter87

(

Muthaa

,

Pittbunny

) 2 (L-8)

Xite91

(

youngminii

) 1 (L-9)

Not voting:

Fidelis

,

Guthrie

,

millar13

,

PaltryExcuse

,

Reverse Simplicity

,

yabbaguy

Wasn't ZF just voting chi? Now he's willing to follow him? At least one more scum

must

be on that wagon.

chihuahua0

(smashbro_of_the_SSS) 1 (L-9)

millar13

(ZeroFang, Mr.Sandman, Sanxion1,

chihuahua0

) 4 (L-6)

Robocopter87

(

Xite9

) 1 (L-9)

Xite91

(

youngminii

,

Pittbunny

,

Fidelis

,

Robocopter87

,

yabbaguy

,

millar13

,

don_johnson

, Wacka Alpaca,

Muthaa

) 9 (L-1)

Not voting:

Enigma

,

PaltryExcuse

,

Shattered Viewpoint

,

Zajnet

Why didn't SV hammer? Extreme buddying, playing the long game, or a teammate looking bad on the wagon? Wacka's vote came with a blathered explanation. If it's the long game, then Red's slot looks bad because if the chi bus was the plan from the begining, that would explain why smash parked there for most of D1.

chihuahua0

(smashbro_of_the_SSS,

don_johnson

,

Fidelis

, Sanxion1,

Robocopter87

, ZeroFang) 6 (L-4)

millar13

(Mr.Sandman,

chihuahua0

) 2 (L-8)

Robocopter87

(

Xite9

) 1 (L-9)

Xite91

(

Switz

,

Pittbunny

,

millar13

,

Muthaa

,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 5 (L-5)

Not voting:

Enigma

,

DavidParker

,

yabbaguy

,

Zajnet

, Wacka Alpaca

Chi's been tunneling on Millar all day, ZF and Sanx both came off of the Millar wagon and ended up on chi. Maybe I missed a stepping-stone vote in the interim but it looks like they both avoided hot-topic Xite while crossing to what may be a bus.

chihuahua0

(smashbro_of_the_SSS,

don_johnson

,

Fidelis

, Sanxion1,

Robocopter87

,

DavidParker

,

Zajnet

,

yabbaguy

,

millar13

,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 10 (L-0)

millar13 (Mr.Sandman,

chihuahua0

) 2 (L-8)

Robocopter87

(

Xite9

) 1 (L-9)

Xite91

(

Switz

,

Pittbunny

,

Muthaa

, ZeroFang) 4 (L-6)

Not voting:

Enigma

, Wacka Alpaca

I'm still hestitant to believe that SV was the only scum on that wagon, seeing as how it was the optimal D1 scum play. Then again, there's WIFOM in that.

Enigma

(

DavidParker

) 1 L-8

Shattered Viewpoint

(

Switz

, Mr.Sandman, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

Zajnet

, Sanxion,

mallowgeno

,

don_johnson

,

millar13

,

Shattered Viewpoint

) 9 L-0

Zajnet

(

yabbaguy

) 1 L-8

Not voting:

Enigma

,

Muthaa

,

Robocopter87

, Wacka Alpaca, ZeroFang

This VC presents a decent argument against a ZF-Miyu team. I really can't imagine scum self-hammering when two buddies are leaning towards a bus. It robs them of much-needed townie credit for no good reason. However, SV has seen me catch scum using this tell before, so it's possible he saw it as an opportune moment to pull the wool over my eyes. I guess time will tell...

mallowgeno

(

Zajnet

,

Robocopter87

,

don_johnson

) 3 L-5

Muthaa

(

mallowgeno

) 1 L-7

Robocopter87

(Mr.Sandman) 1 L-7
Wacka Alpaca (Sanxion,

Muthaa

) 2 L-6

Zajnet

(

Switz

, ZeroFang) 2 L-6

Not voting:

DavidParker

,

Enigma

,

millar13

, smashbro_of_the_SSS, Wacka Alpaca

Here's the another instance where the scum are showing no interest in lynching the mallow/Xite slot. IMO, this suggests that SV's earlier lack of a hammer was buddying and that the slot was being groomed as a late-game mislynch. We should look for scum defending Xite D1, and linking him to each other in the mid game.

mallowgeno

(

Zajnet

) 1 L-7
Wacka Alpaca (Sanxion,

Muthaa

) 2 L-6

Zajnet

(

Switz

, ZeroFang, smashbro_of_the_SSS,

don_johnson

,

Robocopter87

, Mr.Sandman,

DavidParker

,

mallowgeno

) 8 L-0

Not voting:

Enigma

,

millar13

, Wacka Alpaca

All townie milsynch on D3? Methinks no. A Miyu-Sanx team looks unlikely.

Robocopter87

(

mallowgeno

, Sanxion, Miyu) 3 L-4
Miyu (

Robocopter87

,

Muthaa

,

DavidParker

,

Enigma

,

drmyshottyizsik

) 5 L-2

Not voting: Mr.Sandman, RedCoyote,

Switz

, ZeroFang

This is my favorite VC ever. Miyu hovers @ an all town L-2 with 3/5 of the unconfirmed not voting. Note that she is conveniently suspicious of the only other guy with a prayer of getting lynched. I like this VC so much that I reread several pages surrounding the situation and will be discussing it in a separate post in the near future.

mallowgeno

(

Enigma

) 1 L-6
Miyu (

Muthaa

, Mr.Sandman) 2 L-5

Robocopter87

(

mallowgeno

, Sanxion, Miyu, RedCoyote, ZeroFang,

drmyshottyizsik

,

DavidParker

) 7 L-0

Sanxion (

Robocopter87

) 1 L-6

Not voting:

Switz

This was a very shady lynch. At least one scum has to be on it and my guess is both are.

DavidParker

(Miyu) 2 L-3

mallowgeno

(

Ythill

, RedCoyote) 2 L-3
Miyu (

Muthaa

,

DavidParker

,

mallowgeno

) 3 L-2

Muthaa

(ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Mr.Sandman, Sanxion

So I've got this theory I can't shake where the scum were two men down and about to lose a third when Wacka got pissed and replaced out. Then Miyu came in and wowed you all with her mad skillz and her "lurking is scummy" (post post post) "bandwagoning is scummy" (park park park) strategy and you lynched Robo. Then, D5 started and three smart townies were like, "No, really, we're going to lynch her today." Then I came in and fudged it all up but... look who followed me...

Red hadn't even finished reading the game. He had no reason to trust me. I've got obv on my avatar FFS, did he think I wouldn't seem pro-town as scum? Often, when I start swinging my weight around, the scum like to hide in my shadow and help me to be wrong.

DavidParker

(Miyu) 2 L-3

mallowgeno

(RedCoyote,

DavidParker

,

Ythill

) 3 L-2
Miyu (

Muthaa

,

mallowgeno

) 2 L-3

Muthaa

(ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Mr.Sandman, Sanxion

I got off for a minute and then got back on, but pressure was being directed away from the all-town wagon and Red was happy staying put.

DavidParker

(Miyu,

Ythill

) 2 L-3

mallowgeno

(RedCoyote,

DavidParker

) 2 L-3
Miyu (

hitogoroshi

,

mallowgeno

, Mr.Sandman) 3 L-2

Muthaa

(ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Sanxion

Note that Sand didn't join the Miyu wagon until pressure faded, this in spite of the fact that he'd been attacking her hard during the previous day and his only other suspect had been revealed town. My vote was a feeler. Though I'd found the false caveat, I still found Miyu suspicious and I wanted to see what would happen if I backed her up for a minute. At fisrt glance, it seemed like nothing had...

DavidParker

(Miyu) 1 L-4

mallowgeno

(

DavidParker

,

Ythill

,

hitogoroshi

, RedCoyote) 4 L-1
Miyu (

mallowgeno

, Mr. Sandman) 2 L-3
Muthaa (

ZeroFang

) 1 L-4

Not voting: Sanxion

...until I looked at this VC and wondered how Red got onto the end of the mallow wagon. It was him briefly following me onto DP only to slide right back onto the more popular wagon behind me. Again, why the trust? He didn't question me once and I was wrong on both counts. Plus, I could have been scum from his PoV. And why does it seem like he's willing to lynch anyone but Miyu?

DavidParker

(Miyu, Mr. Sandman) 2 L-3

mallowgeno

(

DavidParker

,

Ythill

,

hitogoroshi

, RedCoyote) 4 L-1
Miyu (

mallowgeno

) 1 L-4

Muthaa

(ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Sanxion

This was a very strange vote from Sandman. Remember, he'd been tunelled on Miyu-as-scum for a long time. Then, inexplicably, he joined her momentarily on David. I'd really like an explanation.

DavidParker

(Miyu) 1 L-2

mallowgeno

(

DavidParker

,

Ythill

,

hitogoroshi

, RedCoyote, Mr. Sandman) 5 L-0

Miyu (

mallowgeno

) 1 L-4
Muthaa (ZeroFang) 1 L-4

Not voting: Sanxion

As counterpoint to my "how did miyu/ZF-scum feel when I replaced in with their nooses already tied" this VC suggests that they laughed pretty hard if they are the scumteam. Chances are, this mislynch did not happen without scum assistance. However, if it did, I can't wait to read the QT from N5.

[Ythill]

For conversation's sake, I'm not sure if VC analysis is my favorite but it's something I've adopted recently and that I've found to be accurate more often than not. I do it first because it gives me a good overview of the game to work from. I like associative tells too, and I welcome any effort you want to put in. I think we're going to be a great team.

Right now I'm torn between Miyu-Red and Miyu-ZF, although I'm trying to keep an open mind. I'll be posting more analysis in a little while.

@Miyu:

It's going to be hard to laugh with a noose around your neck. Just sayin.

[Ythill]

Robocopter87

(

mallowgeno

, Sanxion, Miyu) 3 L-4
Miyu (

Robocopter87

,

Muthaa

,

DavidParker

,

Enigma

,

drmyshottyizsik

) 5 L-2

Not voting: Mr.Sandman, RedCoyote,

Switz

, ZeroFang

If Miyu is town, both scum have to be among Sanx, Sandman, Red and ZF. Let’s look at their reactions to Wacka’s exit, Miyu’s entrance, shotty’s L-2 vote, and Enigma’s switch to mallow after Miyu did an iso on her predecessor.

Wacka’s Exit

• Sanx: Pushed suspicion on Robo, with a slip suggesting he knows Robo is town (#927). Continued pushing Robo (#931).
  
• Sandman: Stated that Wacka and Robo were scummy but only attacked Wacka (#924). Attacked ZF for loaded questions (#929).
  
• Red: Was chatty while replacing in. Pooh-poohed the cases on both Wacka and Robo while calling mallow scummy (#943).
  
• ZF: Said that Robo vs. Wacka is as pointless as Robo vs. a dead townie (#921). After the Wacka vs. Robo dilemma was firm, he solidified it with loaded questions (#928). Answered one of his own questions in response to Sand’s jab, stating that he wants to lynch both Robo and Wacka; dodged the other two (#950-951).
  
• If Miyu is town: Sanx's stance as pressure was building against Miyu suggests that he is only scum if a buddy was already attacking her, meaning that Sanx-Sandman is the only sensible option. Sandman-ZF scumteam looks unlikely because the former's attack and the latter's response both look legitimate. In this section, Red looks town and ZF looks scummiest.
  
  
• If Miyu is scum: Sandman's stance gives him lots of towncred. Sanx looks bad, as does ZF. Red is null.

Miyu’s entrance

• Sanx: Made no posts.
  
• Sandman: Answered some questions from ZF and Miyu; pushed suspicion on Robo (#994).
  
• Red: Was impressed that Miyu read the whole thread; called four people scum across two points, noting Miyu as scummy in both but finding ZF scummiest (#984).
  
• ZF: Made a happy fluff post about replacements, then jabbed David. (#959, 965). Played instigator between two town players (#976). Answered Miyu’s questions (#979). Defended himself from Red (#995). Pointed out shotty’s mistaken vote for Wacka (#979).
  
• If Miyu is town:

  Sandman could have been backing off due to her obvious skill level but he'd set up suspicion on her and I don't see scum refraining from a vote here. Red might have been buddying and the exchange between he and ZF could have been distancing. ZF seemed to be struggling to find a new subject. Why not just get on the Miyu wagon since he'd already leaned that way pretty hard?
  
  
• If Miyu is scum: Sandman gets tarnished a bit, but not nearly as much as Red and ZF. The former has a two day record of wanting to lynch anyone but Miyu. The latter was jumping at shadows and spaz-posting while ignoring a large, growing wagon on someone he'd already called scum.

Shotty’s L-2 vote

• Sanx: Agreed that Xite could be scummy for the same reasons Miyu is but wants to hear from Miyu before voting because Xite is bad too (#1011).
  
• Sandman: Kept the pressure on Miyu (#1015).
  
• Red: Chainsawed a claimed lover for Miyu (#1012).
  
• ZF: Held Miyu accountable for Wacka’s actions even though it’s “unfortunate,” pointed out similarities to the Xite/Mallow situation (#1008). Changed the subject to Xite/mallow via a mild chainsaw on David (#1010). Responded directly to Red without mentioning that he just voted a claimed lover (#1013). Jabbed at Sanx (#1020).
  
• If Miyu is town: Again, Sanx doesn't make much sense as scum unless Sand is his buddy. Sandman-scum would have dropped the L-1 vote which he was set up to do. Red's chainsaw doesn't make sense at all, unless he was banking on building a connection between himself and Miyu, which I doubt. ZF's post suggests that he could be scum subtly pushing Miyu-town toward the lynch, but again, why no vote? A minor tell suggests a ZF-Red team.
  
  
• If Miyu is scum: everyone but Sandman looks bad. I can't decide whether Red or ZF is scummier.

Enigma’s switch to mallow

• Sanx: Gave an arbitrary “higher than 80%” scumread on Robo (#1040). Pursued the fight with Robo that would eventually lead to his lynch (#1049).
  
• Sandman: Defended mallow and voted Miyu, who was the more popular of his suspects at the time (#1034). Briefly defended himself vs. Miyu (#1046).
  
• Red: Voted mallow, based on cheerleading dead town (#1025). Immediately changed his vote to Robo, ostensibly due to his reread (#1041).
  
• ZF: Chainsawed Mutha on Miyu’s behalf (#1024). Briefly defended himself vs. Muthaa (#1038).
  
• If Miyu is town: There was no reason for Sanx-scum to push Robo so hard. Sandman could have been posturing. Red-scum's play would be non-sensical. ZF is unlikely scum for that chainsaw.
  
  
• If Miyu is scum: Sanx looks dirty, but maybe a little too overt to be a Miyu scumbuddy. Sandman looks clean as a whistle. Both Red and ZF continue to compete for the Miyu's-most-likely-buddy award.

Conclusions

• Sanx: Tunelled on Robo, pausing to consider and dismiss Miyu at the height of her wagon before slipping back into his Robo-hate. His play seems obv-town to me. If he is scum and she is town, his play only makes sense if a buddy was pushing the mislynch and therefore his buddy must be Sandman. If she is scum, his actions seem too blatant to be her buddy, but it's possible. Sanx is likely town.
  
• Sandman: Was firm in pushing the Robo-Wacka dilemma with a preference for Wacka, backed off momentarily to give Miyu the benefit of the doubt and then returned to pushing Miyu. If he is scum and she is town, I don't understand why he didn't put her @ L-1 seeing as how he was perfectly set up to do so. If she is scum, I think he would have followed through on the switch to Robo. Sandman is likely town.
  
• Red: Was determined to be an individual and seemed disinterested in the Wacka/Miyu wagon. Plus he chainsawed on Miyu's behalf. I don't think he is scum if Miyu is town. If she is scum, the connections in his play make sense as a buddy but his overall play seems less opportunistic than I'd expect in such a dire situation. Red could be scum with Miyu.
  
• ZF: Flip-flopped his read on Wacka/Miyu and seemed to want it both ways. His post-per-page average peaked and yet he seemed to be torn between a lot of different subjects, which suggests he was picking through all of the details and yet he missed an important one. He listed Miyu as one of his top two suspects but never voted her. If he is scum and Miyu is town, I don't understand why he didn't place the L-1 vote, especially with Sandman likley to hammer, and the chainsaws don't make sense. If Miyu is scum, ZF is her most likley buddy based on this analysis. ZF is probably scum with Miyu.
  
• Miyu: There is no clear scumteam between the four unconfirmed players who are not Miyu. There are solid reasons why each one of them is not scum unless she is. Furthermore, there are links suggesting that she is scum with at least one of them. All four players posted while she was hovering at L-2 and being pressured by five townies. Two of them (Sand-ZF) were set up for suspicion against her; unless those two are a scumteam, the other had a hammer likely to follow an L-2 vote. While Sanx
  may
  have been scum stuck in a stance, the only other player who didn't suspect Miyu was Red, who had recently replaced in with a clean slate, and could have easily placed that L-2 vote with
  two
  likely hammers waiting. Tl;dr: Miyu is scum.

[Ythill]

@Miyu:

Please address the above post. Specifically, I would like you to determine the two-man scumteam who was most likley to not lynch you in that situation and explain why. Transparently please.

I'm going to pause here and let people catch up. I have one more piece of homework saved that I will probably post tonight.

[Ythill]

One more thing. For reasons that I cannot discuss due to the ongoing games rule, I am no longer required to keep SV's alt status secret. SV == Nobody Special. Not sure if that will help anyone with meta reads, but it has been helping me.

[Ythill]

All of this "weight" you speak of is fat, not muscle.

Actually, it's mostly balls. I really don't care what you think of me, Zero. Just stay on this side of the modkill line if you're town please.

In case anyone is mistaking Zero's misread for my actual point, I will reiterate... IME, scum like to follow me when I am town and wrong. This statement is not based on an inflated self-image but, rather, on a long history of scum doing just that. Feel free to skim my meta if you like.

Her penultimate mention of Red in ISO 44:

I find you suggesting things to Red to read and do; rather hilarious mallow. Considering that you don't say much.. at all.

This immediately grabs me by the lapels and shakes me yelling "RC and Miyu are scumbuddies!" Hard to explain exactly why - it seems like she's crowing over the mislynch she's grooming (Ythill's post was the first time I heard that expression used in mafia, and damn, I like it!) and subconsciously celebrating with her scumbuddy. Would appreciate Ythill's input because this isn't a formal tell but simply what my gut tells me.

Was mallow the obvious mislynch at that point? IME, scum will often link buddies to suspicious townies as a contingiency in case one of the involved scum dies. However, I don't see the point in doing it if mallow was already in the noose.

The rest of your analysis will be very helpful, though I think it will be moreso after we have a few other samples to compare it to.

I have a unique meta of Miyu, having stolen her as a replacement for my most recent game based solely on the impression I got of her this game. She replaced into it long after it started and approached the game in a very similar fashion. She was a town role.

No matter what her alignment, Miyu's strategy demonstrates that she understands the meta-game. I wouldn't expect anything less.

I don't need to tell you of the possible perils of placing your vote on the basis of players replacing out.

You're overlooking a lot. Three slips where he was casually overconfidant about town aligned players who were, in fact, town. His position on the otherwise all town-on-town L-1 Xite wagon. The double-bluff exit Sandman pointed out.

I am not overlooking the fact that you are defending the slot vehemently based on minutae, nor the fact that you are doing it very obviously. Please present your case for a ZF lynch.

@Miyu:

Does it seem like ZF is angry about me being confirmed town? Why were you hesitant to settle on two suspects before the lover claims?

[Ythill]

Okay... last piece of homework and I promise I'll slow it down a little.

While I was reading the context around mod iso #48 it seemed like ZF was posting more often than usual. I wanted to check if that was true, so I computed his post per page average for the whole game and compared it to that of the period in question. Following that train of thought, I split the game up into subjects based on the votecounts and then computed the ppp during each, for each of the unconfirmed slots. I've never tried this type of analysis, so I don't know how helpful it will be.

Things we need to keep in mind... There were some V/LAs: Sandman had computer issues a couple of times, Wacka had that vacation-then-uni fiasco, I think Sanx was out at least once too. Also, ppp can be forced down by flurries of posting from now dead or confirmed players. In examining these results, I think that peaks are more important than valleys, and more accurate measures of which topics players showed a particular interest in and/or exerted heavier influence over.

Note that potential post density increases as players leave the game. Rather than a straight line, a consistant poster's averages should curve upwards as the days pass. For reference, I plotted the mien, which is the number of posts per page divided by the number of living players, not accounting for modposts. It's the red line on the graphs.



Sanx got pretty Xited during that mess about the plan, then was happy to lynch Mallow. He's been a little lurky, but consistant about it. He looks townie to me.

Sandman had a peak in his average during the Zanjet quicklynch, but his differing levels of involvement in the Miyu dilemmas make sense based on reads he claimed to have at the time.



Smash was the lurkiest of the unconfirmed. His two flourishes coincided with chi's early wagon and his death. Combine it with the parked vote and it's way too strong for D1 town confidence. Red's average is at a nice smooth curve, null.

ZF has played a swingy game. He started at a mien average, showed interest in a chi lynch, then disappeared. He even taunted people about it when he came back to lynch chi. The SV lynch happened while he wasn't paying attention. Then he stepped up his game. During his peaks, two mislynches were engineered, and the focus on one very scummy player derailed. He dropped back after the Robo lynch and again when the spotlight grazed him.

I find the similarity of their input surrounding the D1 chi bus intriguing. Though the Miyu slot looks very scummy in other areas, Red and ZF look an awful lot like scum following their NZ plan.



Wacka might be considered consistant if one takes his V/LAs as honest scheduling issues. It's intriguing that he was more active on the scum-lynch days and wasn't very deeply involved in the mislynches. It could be a point in Miyu's favor, or it could be the effect of scum giving up. I think the most telling bit is Miyu's own play, which spiked sharply for defense, and then fell off once she was in the clear.

Again, this is experimental. I'd love to read other interpretations of the data, especially from hito.

[Ythill]

*sigh*

[Ythill]

@Miyu:

Didn't I just explain that I expect your meta-game to be null? I don't put a ton of weight on meta, except when the player is someone with a weak meta-game (in other words, not you). Could you answer the questions I asked you? Here they are again for your convenience...

@Miyu:

Please address

the above post

#1327. Specifically, I would like you to determine the two-man scumteam who was most likley to not lynch you in that situation and explain why. Transparently please.
...

@Miyu:

Does it seem like ZF is angry about me being confirmed town? Why were you hesitant to settle on two suspects before the lover claims?

Also, why do you sound more obstinate today? If hito has misinterpreted something, accusing him of misrep isn't going to clear it up. Remember... no grounds for OMGUS. As for my case on you, I think I've covered it pretty clearly. Did you have specific questions?

Ythill: Honestly, the ppp analysis seems a little too special casey to be worth undue consideration.

But... but... there's

pictures

.

Does it seem to you like ZF and Miyu are both in sour moods all of a sudden?

[Ythill]

Q: What color is the lipstick on my butt?
A: Red.

Did you bring these up in a post?

Yes and no. I quoted the three slips in my Wacka iso. His wagon position was apparent in the third VC (mod iso 18) covered in #1322. I don't know if I brought up the double-bluff, but you can read the contex for yourself in #910. Here's a quote of the line in question...

And Robo, don't screw this up for us

ZF being off the chi-bus is actually a point in his favor, IMO. And your case is kinda weaksauce, no offense. Please address mod iso 48. Why would a ZF-Sanx scumteam refrain from placing the L-2 vote on Miyu, especially with Sandman seeming like he'd be willing to hammer?

[Ythill]

*more crickets*

[Ythill]

AtE seems like a ludicrous way to define that, and I get the vibe that RC came to the conclusion to defend Wacka FIRST and then found a buzzword for it.

It fits with RC's misread/misrep that Wacka's exit was the only point against him. Red glazed over the double-bluff the same way he glazed over the other points against the slot. However, it seems really heavy-handed for treatment of an actual buddy. Does he seem that clumsy to you?

Red's leaning now, and I thnk that's meaningful concerning Miyu if he is scum.

Also, just thought of something. Ythill, what do you think of the night kill? It seems to me that if the scum killed DP, they probably had to think he was a lover. If you had to pick DP's loverbuddy, who would it be?

After a quick skim, I'd say you or Red. I'm not convinced scum wanted to kill lovers last night though. The paranoid side of me is saying that the DP kill makes the most sense as a framing mechanism for a Miyu-town lynch. NK speculation...

did someone edit a post? Because #1327 did not look like it currently does when I made my last post. It was a wall of a quote quoting other things.

Nah, that was my VC analysis in #1322. I made three big posts catching up with the stuff I was doing in private while we waited for people's suspicions.

Why bother to call hito out? He's town, he's correct, and you're the one who's not reading. There's an ongoing conversation about your alignment, several key points have been repeated, and several in-depth analyses have been conducted transparently. You are free to chime in at any time if you'd like to be involved. In fact, I asked you questions in an effort to involve you, but you seem determined to stand back and take jabs at confirmed townies.

[Ythill]

The burden of proof is on you to prove you're not scum.

I disagree, sorry. We need to make the correct decision regardless of how she plays.

Actually, thinking about this now, I don't think RC could really be scum with anyone but Miyu. With Miyu-town, a DP lynch would have been easily achievable.

You think David is a better mislynch than Miyu if both are town? She was @ L-2 two days ago and would have been lynched yesterday if I hadn't played that caveat wrong. Meanwhile, David never got above 2-3 votes. Also, why does this apply only to RC? It seems like it could be said about anyone, which makes me think you're basing it on an assumption.

I was meaning to ask you before... why are you ruling out ZF-Red? Other than this new bit, obv.

[Ythill]

Huh, you're right. This can be applied to anyone. I can't think of a single scumteam without Miyu that doesn't think they can get DP lynched. Your thoughts?

Either Miyu is scum or you're suffering from confirmation bias, obv. I keep coming back to the Xite/Mallow situation. We

know

that the scum were avoiding his wagons, and we have that one big wagon where Waxka/Miyu is the only unconfirmed slot on. Maybe I'm just being paranoid but, if the scum are subtle enough to set up Mallow like that, then they could have been doing the same with her.

Meh.

Prima facie

, Miyu + ZF seems like the most likley team.

I'm noting the change in the tone of Miyu's play. She was dead-set on winning this game at first, now she seems frustrated and reserved.

Noticed the ninja. Will submit, then address.

[Ythill]

I would say the two scum would be between those not voting. I would assume that they either were not around to hammer, or wanted to wait for town to hammer - so their hands would be clean.

I checked that. Every one of them posted while you were at L-2. And we're not talking about the hammer. Rather, we are talking about the safer vote to L-1, which would set up a town hammer. I mentioned that too, in the post you are misrepping.

What is a meta-game Ythill? Comparing past games to current games?

Playing in a manner that understands people do such things. Playing in a manner that increases your win percentage regardless of alignment.

Again, #1327 is not a case, as it does not detail why you think I am scum. But merely sets up possible relationships on your wrong assumption that I am scum.

Stop it with your cases this, cases that. You're being silly. #1327 is carefully assumption-free. I examined the actions of each player from two PsoV: you-scum and you-town. The you-town ones didn't explain why you never made it to L-1 after mod iso 48. The you-scum ones did. Then I asked you for an alternate explanation and, after stalling, you blathered something vague that doesn't answer the question.

You

still

can't (or won't) narrow down your suspects. WTF?

[Ythill]

Mod: Please prod Zero.

I'm going to be a little busy for the next couple of days. Not V/LA by a long shot, but also nowhere near the level I've been posting at. This is probably a good thing, as it will give people time to catch up...

I intend to iso the players I skipped over yesterday, and to take a second look at my own #1327 to make sure I'm not overlooking something, but probably not until Thursday or later. I'd love to see hito's Miyu-ZF analysis, as well as anything else he'd like to throw into the record. I'd also like to see substansive posts from the unconfirmed players, perhaps a case from each against his or her lead suspect.

Also, please answer this... is there any among you who will

not

vote with myself and hito when the time comes? If so, please explain why.

[Ythill]

Sorry I've been slacking on this game. Due to a busy week IRL, I've had limited time for in-depth analysis, and another game has been absorbing that time.

Right now, I think Miyu and ZF are the scumz. I do intend to do more research before we lynch. Hopefully very soon. Maybe even today/tonight.

[Ythill]

Digging through the thread...

The SV Quicklynch

I'm keeping two things in mind. First, SV was not a tactical bus because there's no way the scum are going to sacrifice half their team before D3. Second, the turning point in the wagon was my predecessor's case in #622; votes before that point were speculative but, afterwards, a lot of town-aligned players were giving the lynch obvious momentum. Here's how each of the unconfirmed reacted...

• Sandman:
  made a safe but reasonable, early vote on SV; attacked Wacka; continued to attack Wacka while defending every alternative to the SV lynch and pressuring SV; made a couple of fluff posts; and accepted the reasonable part of Wacka's defense. Post lynch, he expressed his pleasure with the rest of the town.
  My townread is even stronger after looking at this.
  
  
• Wacka:
  attacked Don while worrying about impulse votes; stalled while promising several cases, including a defense of SV and an attack vs. Don; pushed Xite as an info lynch; posted a case against Don (which included two more minor slips that I missed earlier, see below); and defended himself against Sandman.
  His motivations seemed scummy but his actions were very overt. If he's scum, he's not very good at the game. Of course, this is Wacka Alpaca we're talking about here. Aggressive mind games FTW.
  
  
• Sanx:
  defended Don; discredited Wacka; slipped onto the SV mid-wagon, citing agreement with Switz.
  Prima facie, his play looks fine. My only issue is that he was the only unconfirmed player to vote after the turning point.
  
  
• Smash:
  made his own early vote on SV, breaking a two vote tie between SV and Don, then vanished for the rest of the day.
  Could have been distancing. Of note is that SV responded to Smash's case but hardly mentioned anyone else's.
  
  
• ZF:
  lurked, pushed an Xite lynch, then went back to lurking. Post lynch, he seemed displeased.
  This is exactly what I'd expect scum to look like on D2 in this game. Major scumpoints.

While making his case against Don in #640 Wacka based two of the points on tacit assumptions of other players being town. I didn't catch these slips, but Don mentioned them when he defended himself in #660. The players were David and Sandman. So now we have Wacka looking like he forgot he's not supposed to know who is town regarding four different players. Three of them are now dead and confirmed town. This adds scumpoints to Miyu's slot and earns townie-brownies for Sandman.

[Ythill]

I don't usually explain townreads. I may make an exception this game, but no time to do so right now. I intend to iso him soon so, probably then.

Still in the middle of my busy week. And, in fact, today and tomorrow are the busiest.

[Ythill]

Sweet.

Still sorta V/LA, but there's a light at the end of the tunnel.

[Ythill]

Okay... we've got 5 days. My busy week is finally slowing down. I have the next two days off of work, during which time I will complete all of the promised analysis and be ready to make a final decision. Hopefully, we have enough town players active at that point to achieve a scum lynch.

The only people contributing are yourself, Ythill, and myself.

Bullshit. Red's been contributing. You've been wasting a lot of words OMGUSing confirmed townies. You OMGUSed Sandman too, so I suppose we could call

that

scumhunting.

[Ythill]

Hell yes.

Hi DGB... sooo happy you're here. Your slot looks townie to me so far so I'm going to assume that I'm correct for this post. Here's the skinny:

We are @ 2:5 with two claimed lovers alive and therefore LYLO. Hito and I are the lover pair with no CC, therefore confirmed town. You, Sandman, ZeroFang, Red, and Miyu are the lynch pool. Of them, you and Sandman seem towniest to me and Miyu seems scummiest but none of that is 100% and I'd like your opinions before we lynch.

No point in reading the whole game. Iso me for a shit-ton of analysis, including VCs, isos on dead scum, isos on suspicious players, and an experimental peek at post density per topic; hito's done some good work too. Hop around from there and feel free to ask questions. I'm going to do a few more isos tonight/tomorrow.

I'm assuming you will vote with the bloc, yes?

[Ythill]

For your reference and mine...

Day 5

(skipped isos on now-dead town)
VC Analysis
Dead Scum Isos + Wacka Iso
Miyu Iso
ZF Iso
Summary

D6

VC Analysis
Extrapolation on Mod Iso 48
Post Density Analysis
Examination of D2 Scum Quicklynch

[Ythill]

Sanx

A lurky player that liked to jump on bandwagons. His VT role makes the lurking look a little worse. He attacked Wacka, 5 confirmed townies, chi, and SV; of them, he voted all but hito and myself. He buddied to or defended Miyu and 5 confirmed townies, including some of those he voted. He chainsawed on behalf of Miyu and eventually called her null despite his read on Wacka.

Sanx made a big swing between dismissing millar's play and voting him between isos 5 & 7, then he swung back to dismissing millar's play in iso 9. He experienced a longer swing on Robo. His first "open set-up fail" seemed transparent and natural but then he made the same mistake later and used it to justify calling for early lover claims. His vote vs. Wacka was brief and ambivalent. He tunneled Robo hard. Later in the game, as he started to get distracted, Sanx dropped two strong behavioral towntells that looked legitimate.

There are certainly reasons to suspect Sanx, but I don't see him having the finesse to fake behavioral tells so well.

Prima facie

connections to Miyu are belied by the lack of similar connections to the dead scum, though I suppose that could have been a gear change. Overall, I'm still leaning town on the slot.

[Ythill]

Smash

An aggressive player despite being an infrequent poster. He attacked 6 confirmed townies, chi, and SV; he only voted three times: chi, SV, and confirmed town. Smash defended or buddied to Zero, Sandman, and 8 confirmed town. He cited others arguments a lot and generally flew under the radar. The internal contradictions in iso 9 seem natural and indicitive of townie indecision. Null leaning town overall.

Red

A skilled player who has been looking at lots of angles, Red has attacked Miyu, ZF, Sandman, Sanx, and 5 town; of them, he's voted 4 now-confirmed town. He defended or buddied to Wacka/Miyu, Sanx, ZF, and 6 town. Early on, he voted a claimed lover because he hadn't read the game; which looks like a legitimate mistake. There was one place it looked like Red was role-fishing but he explained that well. He put a lot of energy into defending the Miyu slot (almost too much for both to be scum) but he's put even more energy into buddying up to me and that's what worries me the most. Here's an intriguing quote...

We should let the vote counts do some of the heavy lifting here. The more I read over the flipped scum's posts, the more I feel like it's a wasted effort trying to draw any solid conclusions.

My VC analysis had implicated five people at that point, including RC. Scum isos hadn't sullied him at all. In fact, little but the VCs had. If Red was being tactical, he was arguing against himself, which seems dumb.

Overall, leaning further town, but I

really

don't like the buddying.

[Ythill]

I think your scumputer is broken. How did Wacka/Miyu only get 33+100-10? You don't seem to be figuring in any points for mod iso 48.

There could be bussing. Must be, if you are correct about RC/Miyu.

My current top vote candidates are Miyu and ZF. However, before I make a final decision I need to go through all of the analysis and do final calculations. I

may

iso Sandman as well, but I'm pretty solidly town on him so maybe not. Perhaps someone else should do that? I'd also like to read the rest of the analysis hito has promised.

[Ythill]

Updated for your viewing pleasure. I also combined the Wacka/Miyu isos into a single point so as to correct a math error.

• My initial reread implicated Miyu and
  mallow. Also
  ZF.
  
• My (D5) VC analysis implicated
  mallow and David. Also
  Miyu, ZF, and RC.
  
• The Chi iso implicated
  mallow. Also Muutha, David, and
  ZF.
  
• The SV iso implicated
  mallow. Also
  Miyu.
  
• The Fidelis situation implicated: Miyu, ZF, and Sanx. Also
  mallow and
  RC.
  
• The D1 lover-bus implicated one of ZF/Miyu/Sanx/
  David + mallow (in hindsight, it looks to be David + mallow)
  .
  
• The Wacka iso made Miyu look scummy, but
  if she's scum, mallow is town
  . The Miyu iso showed her to be a strategic player and slightly scummy, but nothing damning.
  Plus opened my eyes to David.
  
  
• The ZF iso made him look a little scummy, but also presented a couple of town caveats and
  ruled him out as buddies with mallow
  .

• My D6 VC analysis implicated Red and Miyu. To a lesser extent, ZF and DGB.
  
• Analysis of mod iso 48 implicates Miyu, Red, and ZF.
  
• My post density analysis implicates Red and ZF. To a lesser extent, Miyu.
  
• Analysis of the SV quicklynch implicates ZF and Miyu.
  
• The Sanx iso was inconclusive... null leaning town.
  
• The smash/Red iso makes him look town.
  
• As a side note, both ZF and Miyu have seemed like they tasted sour grapes today, while Red has been hunting.

It seems obvious that we have two scumz between Miyu/ZF/Red. I'm calling Sand and DGB -def-town as of this post and will not consider lynching either of them.

Miyu was implicated by 10/15 points of analysis and was cleared by none. She has been flirting with the lynch for days, pushed by a large number of now-confirmed town, but has managed to avoid that fate with a townie dying in her stead each time. Her play today suggests that she's scum with no experience going up against confirmed townies. I'd say she's tied with ZF for most likely scum, individually.

ZF was implicated by 11/15 points of analysis and was cleared by some minor caveats in his iso. His posting patterns in the early game suggest that he is scum who intended to bus chi but not SV, and then he ramped up his effort to help turn the tide of the game away from a Miyu lynch. His play today has been abyssmal, and suggests that he's scum who has given up on the game.

Red was implicated by 5/15 point of analysis and cleared by two, including seeming heavily town in his own iso. If he's scum, he's very good at this game.

A Miyu-ZF scumteam looks most likley based on my own analysis. However, there's a little voice in the back of my head screaming that a David kill

makes absolutely no sense

from a Miyu-ZF team, and my results could have been tainted by confirmation bias. I'd like

everyone

to note whom they will and will-not vote for. I'd also like to read hito's promised analysis and conclusions. We should do this quickly so that we have time to vote before deadline.

[Ythill]

My main suspects were mallow, DP, Miyu, and ZF.

[Ythill]

Your mom's completely arbitrary.

[Ythill]

Deadline in 2 days, peeps.

[Ythill]

[Ythill]

VOTE: Miyu

[Ythill]

RC's latest post

was

dripping with scumminess. Meh. DGB will make a good decision. I'm ready to die.

Hammer plox.

[Ythill]

@Red:

The scumminess of your post is obvious to several people and is something for you to discuss tomorrow. I did intend to be involved in the decision of who to lynch tomorrow but DGB has arrived. If she's scum, I don't think there's any hope for a town win. If she's town, I trust her to make the correct decision.

@DGB:

Please use our analyses wisely. The last scum is either ZF or Red. Good luck.

@Sandman:

More investment tomorrow, please.

Goodnight.

[Ythill]

So... who's paying for dinner? *crosses fingers*

[Ythill]

Apparently, it doesn't make a difference anyway.

[Ythill]

Scum

Miyu
mallow or ZF

Accomplishments: named the entire scumteam in my first list, named all of the lynches in my first list, and manipulated a beautiful woman into buying me dinner. It was delicious, BTW.

I agree that the activity levels in this game were atrocious. However, I think that Sandman played a good game. Thinking for oneself is overrated, especially in a game with confirmed townies. He was obv-town from the start, was almost single-handedly responsible for keeping the pressure on the Wacka-Miyu slot before I replaced in, and made some great decisions with his vote.

Red, on the other hand, was very close to losing this game for the town. I don't think he played horribly but he should probably work on not seeming so damned scummy. Prps for te arguments at the end though. You read DGB's character well.

The scumteam all played

very

poorly, except for Miyu, who was awesome.

I am

female.

QFT. Like, seriously female.

[Ythill]

Yeah, I guess I didn't look at it that way. Considering the position you were in, the scumminess of your late-game play was understandable.

[Ythill]

graphs and stuff.. how not to believe him!

The graveyard was pretty funny. No mention of any of the scum, except to call them town. Meanwhile, lots of suspicion against town. LOL.

Sanx as scum? Really? He was second in obv-townness only to Sandman. I'm sorry I didn't get linked in.

Also, a read of the scum QT reveals that the DP kill was not all ZF's fault as Miyu would have us believe. She named him as a lover and then said to kill lovers, not threats. I really loved that part where she lists all the possible lovers (excluding me and Hito) and then worries that they will take our advice and claim in the morning. Hehehe. 90% of my reason for giving that advice was to make the scum think I'd slipped about my non-lover status.

[Ythill]

Yeah shotty. You're the best.