Open 226: Big Love - Game over! Town wins!
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Ythill Fabio
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Hi everyone. And a one-armed hug for Miyu.
I've got a lot of reading to do, will probably take me a couple of days to finish it but I'll be caught up in time to lynch scum before deadline. In the meanwhile, I'll be trying to keep up with current events. Anything specific I should be paying particular attention to?Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Hi again. I have read through the first 22 pages.
Though I have a lot more reading and analysis to do before placing my vote, I don't mind saying that Miyu and mallow seem to be the remaining scum. So far, this view is based entirely on the play of their predecessors, Wacka and Xite. The former made a few very serious slips; the latter seemed to have too much convinient knowledge about who the (now confirmed) scum were long before they were revealed.
I have some strong town reads as well, but I will play those cards close to my chest until my reared is complete. Still interested in reading answers to the question I asked in my last post.
Now... sleep...Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Well now, isn't this game just a hotbed of activity? Post moar, damnit.
I've finished reading through page 33. No major suspect changes, though a D1 town read I had on ZF is faltering a bit as he is looking like sleeper-scum. If that pans out, he could replace mallow on my list. Now that I'm most of the way through D3, I can say that there are a few wagon analyses that are going to be very helpful in confirming or denying my reads.
More tonight after work...Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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I'm caught up. No need to make your eyes bleed. I'll be cuddling with my notes over the next few days but I'm well versed enough now to participate. A few comments...
Cheerleading noted. Also considering that this came from the same guy who used the town's laziness to excuse his own earlier. But I digress... I have only ever received one prod, and that one was a mass prod of which I was the only undeserving player in the game. I plan to work my ass off through twillight and then get NKed because I caught the scum. If the rest of the town wants to win, they should try to keep up.ZF wrote:Activity, people. This town needs it badly.
tl;dr = @ZF: IGMEOU + QFT
@Miyu:I'm glad I finally get to play a game with you on here. LOLing @ people forgetting your gender. Anyway, I'm sorry about your role PM. You're good at the game and I can see why you're swaying some people but Wacka made a couple of damning slips and you've made some less-drastic-but-still-there mistakes in trying to regain the ground he lost for you. I'm still going to do wagon analysis and isos and whatnot, so it's always possible I'll veer off in some other direction but, as it stands right now, I can't see me lynching anyone else at the end of today.
Anyway...
Scum
Miyu
mallow or ZF
Town
Sand
Mu
Dave
Sanx
RCRecord:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Ythill Fabio
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I'm not surprised chi got votes early. Bussing the scum-lover is an excellent strategy, but ideally it woud have been saved for D2. There is probably one scum on this wagon and my guess is ZF. Mallow gets some minor town points here because chi grouped with him. SV looks like he was distancing on Miyu's slot.mod iso 10 wrote:chihuahua0(don_johnson, smashbro_of_the_SSS,Robocopter87, ZeroFang,yabbaguy) 5 (L-5)
Muthaa (Sanxion, Xite91,chihuahua0) 3 (L-7)
Reverse Simplicity(Mr.Sandman) 1 (L-9)
Robocopter87(Muthaa) 1 (L-9)
Wacka Alpaca (Shattered Viewpoint) 1 (L-9)
Xite91 (youngminii) 1 (L-9)
yabbaguy(Wacka Alpaca,millar13) 2 (L-8)
Not voting:Fidelis,Guthrie, PaltryExcuse,Pittbunny,Reverse Simplicity
Mallow's slot dropped onto chi after the pressure faded; very likely distancing. The scum were very hungry for a lover lynch, maybe even three on this wagon though ZF grouping with chi makes him seem less likely, especially with SV tempting the lynch.mod iso 13 wrote:chihuahua0(don_johnson, smashbro_of_the_SSS, Xite9) 3 (L-7)
millar13(chihuahua0, ZeroFang, Mr.Sandman,Robocopter87, Wacka Alpaca, Sanxion1,Shattered Viewpoint) 7 (L-3)
Robocopter87(Muthaa,Pittbunny) 2 (L-8)
Xite91 (youngminii) 1 (L-9)
Not voting:Fidelis,Guthrie,millar13, PaltryExcuse,Reverse Simplicity,yabbaguy
Seriously town-driven wagon never made it to lynch. If Miyu is scum, then mallow's alignment can be determined from whether Wacka was panic-bussing or praying for a mislynch. Meanwhile, clumsy SV has unvoted the lover and not hammered mallow's slot even though his buddy is quickly becoming the popular third choice. This looks really bad for mallow.mod iso 18 wrote:chihuahua0(smashbro_of_the_SSS) 1 (L-9)
millar13(ZeroFang, Mr.Sandman, Sanxion1,chihuahua0) 4 (L-6)
Robocopter87(Xite9) 1 (L-9)
Xite91 (youngminii,Pittbunny,Fidelis,Robocopter87,yabbaguy,millar13,don_johnson, Wacka Alpaca, Muthaa) 9 (L-1)
Not voting:Enigma, PaltryExcuse,Shattered Viewpoint,Zajnet
mod iso 22 wrote:chihuahua0(smashbro_of_the_SSS,don_johnson,Fidelis, Sanxion1,Robocopter87, ZeroFang) 6 (L-4)
millar13(Mr.Sandman,chihuahua0) 2 (L-8)
Robocopter87(Xite9) 1 (L-9)
Xite91 (Switz,Pittbunny,millar13, Muthaa,Shattered Viewpoint) 5 (L-5)
Not voting:Enigma, DavidParker,yabbaguy,Zajnet, Wacka AlpacaNow SV jumps on.Again, likely distancing. Mallow is looking obv-scummy now. Also, check out how long smashbro was voting chi. That's pretty confident for D1.
So SV was not afraid to hammer, and clearly decided to hammer the scum lover over mallow's slot. More mallow scum points. ZF finally voted mallow's slot when it no longer mattered and I guess I'll have to consider a Miyu town scenario where ZF and mallow are buddies. Hmmmm...mod iso 25 wrote:chihuahua0(smashbro_of_the_SSS,don_johnson,Fidelis, Sanxion1,Robocopter87, DavidParker,Zajnet,yabbaguy,millar13,Shattered Viewpoint) 10 (L-0)
millar13 (Mr.Sandman,chihuahua0) 2 (L-8)
Robocopter87(Xite9) 1 (L-9)
Xite91 (Switz,Pittbunny, Muthaa, ZeroFang) 4 (L-6)
Not voting:Enigma, Wacka Alpaca
One good VC on D2, FFS? At least it's amod iso 30 wrote:Enigma(DavidParker) 1 L-8
Shattered Viewpoint(Switz, Mr.Sandman, smashbro_of_the_SSS,Zajnet, Sanxion, mallowgeno,don_johnson,millar13,Shattered Viewpoint) 9 L-0
Zajnet(yabbaguy) 1 L-8
Not voting:Enigma, Muthaa,Robocopter87, Wacka Alpaca, ZeroFangreallygood one. I am familliar with SV and one of his alts. A self-hammer from scum-him means that at least one buddy is on his wagon. Hi mallow. I'll keep the others in mind too. Wacka, ZF, and David all stand out as the hey-I'm-not-interested-whistle-whistle minority, but especially the two who aren't voting.
A town threesome on mallow and no scum jumped into the fray. In fact, the wagon fell apart shortly thereafter, and...mod iso #36 wrote:mallowgeno (Zajnet,Robocopter87,don_johnson) 3 L-5
Muthaa (mallowgeno) 1 L-7
Robocopter87(Mr.Sandman) 1 L-7
Wacka Alpaca (Sanxion, Muthaa) 2 L-6
Zajnet(Switz, ZeroFang) 2 L-6
Not voting: DavidParker,Enigma,millar13, smashbro_of_the_SSS, Wacka Alpaca
...bam. Mislynch. How does mallow get away with not noticing his hammer for four days? After Sand correctly pointed out the L-1? I mean, seriously, do you people, as town, often throw votes onto large wagons on D3 without even wondering what the VC is? Plus smash loses an entire pan of townie brownies for not noticing the mod's mistake. (BTW, I edited this quote to show the actual lynch wagon, in case you didn't notice.)mod iso 38 wrote:mallowgeno (Zajnet) 1 L-7
Wacka Alpaca (Sanxion, Muthaa) 2 L-6
Zajnet(Switz, ZeroFang, smashbro_of_the_SSS,don_johnson,Robocopter87, Mr.Sandman, DavidParker, mallowgeno) 8 L-0
Not voting:Enigma,millar13, Wacka Alpaca
Unless one of David/Muutha is scum (and I don't think they are), this VC makes Miyu look bad. Hell, it makes her look badmod iso 48 wrote:Robocopter87(mallowgeno, Sanxion, Miyu) 3 L-4
Miyu (Robocopter87, Muthaa, DavidParker,Enigma,drmyshottyizsik) 5 L-2
Not voting: Mr.Sandman, RedCoyote,Switz, ZeroFangeven if one of them was scum. There was a fair amount of scrambling against her lynch but there were no middle-wagons between her and what we see here as the fisrt push on Robo.
David comes out dirty here, especially if I'm right about Miyu. Other than that, this VC doesn't contain much information yet, but remember it (and the one before it) for future days because it will be important.mod iso 51 wrote:mallowgeno (Enigma) 1 L-6
Miyu (Muthaa, Mr.Sandman) 2 L-5
Robocopter87(mallowgeno, Sanxion, Miyu, RedCoyote, ZeroFang,drmyshottyizsik, DavidParker) 7 L-0
Sanxion (Robocopter87) 1 L-6
Not voting:Switz
Miyu doesn't look as bad as I thought she would, but not exactly Mother Teresa either. Many of my town reads keep their halos. Mallow is is suddenly the scummiest scum to ever scum. Like, seriously. And since there's no votes on him currently I might as well...Conclusions:
VOTE: mallowgeno
@Miyu:You mentioned seeing SV self-hammer as scum before. Was there scum on his wagon that time? Link please.
I am interested in forming a voting bloc. With nine players alive and only one scum kill, we need five players to control the game from here on out. Sand, Muutha, David, and Sanx: would you be interested in voting with me and the others I've listed? Are you willing to put your money where your mouth is by refraining from being involved in any wagons larger than L-3 until we five decide who we would like to lynch? Thanks in advance for for your answers.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Ythill Fabio
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ITT mallow wants me to help him find flaws in my own logic and ZF is all... "Them? I'm not with them."
Two scum between these three and we have a mislynch to spare even if the lovers die. Looks like a town win.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Ythill Fabio
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@David:I'm not going to rate my town reads so you can stop asking. Again, why do you want to know?
@ZF:Meta me.
@Miyu:Davidisinexperienced, yes. What's your point? Nothing about Xite was obv-town. He fake-claimed in the course of rolefishing Millar, FFS. Did you even look at my VC analysis?Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Did I say it was an excuse? You set up a n00b-or-scum false dilemma which I found funny because Davidactually isnew. Ooops.
Besides, from my reread it looks like you're either scum or convinced that inactivity and bandwagoning are strong scumtells, so I really don't care what you think of David. By that measure over half this player list is scum.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Ythill Fabio
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He was a straight shooter and very new. He buddied to one town, one scum, and ZF. Chi attacked 7/17 players including Muutha, Xite, and 5 now-confirmed townies. Of them, he placed a vote or FoS on four (including Muutha and Xite), plus a RV on David. Most of his attacking was reserved for Millar and purported buddy Robo. When Xite came under pressure, chi made his only major stance change of the game, connecting Xite to both of his other suspects. Opportunism or distancing? Post #472 suggests the latter.Chi:
Mallow's slot is implicated here. To a lesser extent, Mutha, David, and ZF are also tarnished. Also note that the combination of an apologetic late confirm and behavior that seemed almost purposefully scummy suggest that chi knew he was going to be bussed. I believe that his goal was to out as many lovers as possible and then take the fall as soon as a buddy came under pressure.
Though he's more experienced, there isn't a lot of depth to SV's play. He buddied up to or defended chi and 2 town. He Attacked 6/17 players including Xite/mallow, chi, and 4 town. Of those he voted Xite, chi, himself, and two town, plus a RV on Wacka. The only links he drew between players were town to town. While most of his votes were either hammers or placed on growing wagons, his Xite vote came as the pressure was fading. Furthermore, he took a last jab at mallow before self-hammering, which struck me as the distancing of scum who has already given up.SV:
Mallow and, to a lesser extent, Wacka are implicated by this iso.
In reading the above isos, I made a realization. SV attacked post-claim Fidelis briefly as an excuse to hammer chi but didn't mention him before that. Chi didn't mention him at all. Thing is, the scum knew that Fidelis was linked to chi and, from their Pov, he was the worst possible lynch because it was as costly as bussing without any of the town-cred. I expect that the scum either buddied up to him or avoided him like the plague. Wacka, ZF, and Sanx only had nice things to say about him. Xite defended himself from Fidelis but otherwise ignored him. RC's predecessor ignored him completely. Sandman attacked Fidelis; Muutha voted him: town points for both slots.Fidelis:
The scum might have started bussing chi early, but I amD1 Bussing:certainthat they had a lot to do with his lynch at the end of the day. There was a strong false dilemma going between the two VIs with Xite @ L-2 and chi had been mostly forgotten when the votes started quickly shifting his way. At that time, smashbro and a townie were already parked on chi. Smash had gotten on early with a decent case and stayed there all day. The second wagon started growing with a flurry of votes and attacks from now-confirmed town, and a vote from Sanx who slipped on in a sheep suit.
Immediately after that, Wacka and Sandman put on the breaks and Xite requested replacement. Things slowed down considerably. ZF stopped lurking, posted that quadruple eyebleed of IoA and jumped on chi, citing lurking and wagoning (heh), only to remove his vote in his next postwhile still listing chi as his top suspect. David jumped on with no explanation whatsoever, then another townie. That's L-3. Wacka kept defending chi and stalling. Town players dropped two more votes to make it L-2. More defense from Wacka, and an attempt to recreate the Xite counter-wagon. SV lurked for six hours before dropping the hammer.
The scum on this wagon is either ZF or Sanx. However, SV stalling before dropping the hammer suggests that he was giving one of his other buddies the chance to do it, probably the one who came up with the contingiency plan in the QT. If that's the case (a lot of assumption, I know), then only one other partner could have been on the wagon and Wacka is cleared as scum because there's no was SV was waiting for the defender to quick-hammer.
So, if we accept the theory that SV was waiting for a buddy, the scumteam are one of ZF/Sanx + mallow. If we believe that SV simply got cold feet then we can add Wacka to the first group but mallow is still implicated.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Wacka
Lurked through the early game. Attacked 6/17 players including Xite and 5 confirmed town. He buddied to Sandman and 2 town, plus he defended both scum. I'm noting that he attacked Millar and Xite most aggressively D1, and they were two claimed lovers who were unknown to the scum. He also fished for lovers here and there. I don't like the slow lean he made off of millar and onto Xite because it felt unnatural. He wasted a lot of words qualifying his play and trying to seem innocent, and then replaced out once he'd been seriously accused. Plus there are a few scumslips...
This is written over the course of trying to argue that Millar is a better lynch than Xite. It reads very much like he knows that Xite is town but there's been no confirmation and, two posts later, Wacka votes Xite simply because he's ahead of Millar in the VC.Wacka wrote:Won't the mafia just NOT kill Xite now? Or am I missing something that makes Xite irresistable to being killed by mafia?
Let's say the mafia just doesnt kill him, then the town goes with your logic, and lynches him... now we (Possibly) have 2(or 3, or 4 if both are lovers with diff people) dead townies + mafia kill.
Is that what you want to (Possibly) die for?
Or again, am I missing something?
Here he sounds like he knows that Millar is town, but there's been no cardflip.Wacka wrote:This meant that the town was not scum hunting, due to an immense diversion that was Millar. This distraction had to be removed in order to move forward as a town.
In such a large game, we can justify a HORRIBLE townie lynch, to make progress on the next day - on the theory that a full town with one HORRIBLE player is worse than a full town - 2 townies.
Again, phrasing suggests he knows Xite's alignment to be townWacka wrote:Xite, I agree with a person who posted that your plan felt "Made up" on the spot. that plan DOESN'T MAKE SENSE.
Think of it, why would the mafia kill you again? YOU LOOK LIKE MAFIA.
Whenever I play as town, I try to be two steps ahead.
Whenever I play as mafia, I try to be THREE steps ahead.while calling him scum. And it also reads like scum ego pooh-poohing a dumb plan. It's disconcerting that iso evidence is showing a disconnect like this between my top two suspects.
I just posted this one for the lulz.Wacka wrote:In my experience, most people who request to be replaced out in a rage are scum, trying to play to a fearful town of killing a townie.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Ythill Fabio
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Not true. Vote movement and grouping is theMiyu wrote:Bandwagoning is a scumtell. Town has absolutely no reason to be throwing their vote around all over the place...bestway to catch scum. Enough people have bandwagoned in this game that townmusthave done it. If town have done it, then it isnota reliable scumtell.
No, it isn't. Power roles lurk. Overloaded/busy/bored town lurk. Again, enough people have lurked in this game that townMiyu wrote:Lurking is one.musthave done it.
No, I'm not. David is my town list because his play demonstrates that he is not scum.Miyu wrote:You labeled him as a newbie; so yes you are using it as an excuse.You were the onewho said that he was either scum or new, which is a false dilemma. I was just pointing out that you should meta people when picking your false dilemmas because, ironically, Davidisnew, and therefore your argument is silly.
The confusion is yours, probably because of your own assumptions. I know who replaced who, and I don't have Miyu as town. Let me explain my vote...David wrote:Umm, ythill, you realize it's MIYU who replaced Wacka!?!?!? Not zerofang.. Yet you have Miyu pinned as town!?
i think you are confused.
My initial reread gave me scumreads on Miyu, mallow, and ZF. Of them, Miyu was the scummiest but she had a bunch of votes already so I didn't get on her bandwagon. VC analysis didn't give much evidence to change my townreads, but it did implicate mallow heavily and he had no votes so I voted him. Scum isos and a couple of context reads further implicated mallow. Then I started my isos on living players with Wacka and found a disconnect: if the slips made by Wacka are accurate then it is suggested that mallow is town. This seems odd to me because both are individually scummy. Seeing that votes have shifted to mallow, I didn't want him close to lynch while I figure this out, so I moved my vote to the one suspect who (1) is likley scum with either Miyu or mallow and (2) doesn't have a wagon on him.
Over the next few days I will be continuing my isos and then I will be voting to lynch one of my suspects.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Ythill Fabio
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@Sand:Please comment on my #1166. If the strongest evidence against Miyu's slot are the scumslips where Wacka revealed knowing Xite to be town, how can mallow be scummy with Miyu? I am not trying to discredit your read but, rather, trying to refine mine.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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Ythill Fabio
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Exactly the thought process I had during my initial reread and then my iso of Wacka. And yet on all other fronts mallow's slot looks like scum. I am going to iso Xite/mallow tonight and maybe find some answers. I appreciate you going over this with me.Sand wrote:Ythill, I took them more as Wacka legitimasing Xite not being killed at night by mafia, which would happen if he was town. However, looking back, that is taking them out of context.
@Miyu:My argument is that wagoning and lurking are not reliable scumtells because of the reasons I gave for town to do both and because town have done themin this game. Your argument is, "Nuh-uh." Good job.
The scum-or-n00b dilemma I was talking about:In #1157, Miyu wrote:If by some miracle he is town, then he needs to learn how to play.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Ythill Fabio
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Xite
If he's scum, this guy's play is more nuanced than his dead buddies. He attacked 9/17 players including Wacka, Sandman, Muutha, 4 town and both dead scum. Of them, he voted for Muutha, 2 town, and both dead scum. He buddied to or defended Wacka, 2 town, and Chi. There are a ton of reliable scumtells in his play. He buddied to Don shortly after calling him scum, attacked and buddied to Wacka in the same post, spent more energy arguing for his own townieness than looking for scum, and directed the cop to himself. His fakeclaim-plan didn't make much sense as a scumtrap, but it made perfect sense as lover-fishing. Furthermore, he is heavily connected to both dead scum, including a RV on SV, two very empty votes on Chi that seemed like distancing, and a distancing scum-lean on SV for no apparent reason, all from a guy who had no problem explaining his votes and attacks on town. He also tried to stall the Chi lynch while agreeing that Chi looked scummy, softening his read from "most scummy" to "gut read but more n00b than scum" in the process.
The following exchange seems extremely suspicious to me...In #366, chi wrote:Now you are claiming love now, Xite? How is it all apart of a plan?
VOTE: Xite91
I see a OMGUS vote coming...
Chi never answered the question and Xite didn't bring it up again. From the perspective where both are scum, this looks an awful lot like Chi (who was acting obv-scummy on purpose) trying to rein in his crazy wildcard of a buddy by reminding him to bus. In his very next post, Chi moved his vote to someone else like none of this had ever happened.In #370, Xite wrote:Uhm, chihuahua why do you see an omgus coming exactly?
Mallow
If he's scum, he's got a solid game and seems less concerned with his own survival than he is making sure that he doesn't leave connections to his buddies. He attacked 7/17 players including Miyu, Muutha, David, RC, 4 town, and SV. He voted all of them except one of the dead town. He defended or buddied to 9/17 players including Sand, smash, Sanx, ZF, Wacka/Miyu, David, and 3 town. The biggest alignment tell against mallow was the way he replaced in: he claimed that he was going to reread, then posted fourteen hours later without commenting on anything but his predecessor's play, then spent an hour and a half putting together a case against Robo.Veryscummy. His late-day vote on doomed SV reeked of bussing (he sheeped the whole wagon). His suggestion of an early massclaim was bad, as were his stance changes on David and Miyu. When Zero pointed out his bad stance on Miyu, his response was the pure blather of a liar who got too smart for his own britches.
I still don't understand the disconnect between Miyu and mallow (the one Sand and I were talking about) especially because, individually, each of these slots is obv-scum. However, mallow has come out extremely scummy in every aspect of my analysis so far and I am now convinced that if only one of them is mafia, it's mallow. The only other town point I see for the slot is that theory about Xite's plan being too balsy for scum to try, but that's WIFOM and, as we can see from SV'sI hate everyonepost, players on this site have started to learn that lots of people think scum will not draw attention to themselves.
I intend to iso Miyu and ZF before the day ends but mallowreallyneeds to be lynched so...
UNVOTE: ZF
VOTE: mallowgenoRecord:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Ythill Fabio
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Miyu
Miyu is an excellent player. She works hard, is good at manipulating people, and is carefully null. Miyu attacked 6/12 players, including Sand, Sanx, Muutha, David, and 2 town; but she has only voted David and 1 town. She buddied/defended mallow, and 2 town. There are some minor point against her. Her eye-bleed replacement was populist, and some bits seemed to indicate creative writing. Miyu did an iso of her predecessor despite the belief that it is pointless and she distanced from dead scum while doing so. And attacked the hammer of a wagon she was on.
I found this during the iso and it struck me as odd. Miyu was arguing that because a player replaced out of two games simultaneously for the same reason, that the slot is town in this game. That doesn't make any sense at all. The circumstances of replacement have nothing to do with mallow's alignment.Miyu wrote:Like I said in one of my posts when I replaced in this game. I had just played in a game with Xite, and she (I believe Xite = a she;) exhibited similar behavior. Which I found out that this game and that game seem to of been running at the same time; as she bowed out of this one for the same reason as that one.
My main problem with Miyu's play is her mixed attack and defense, which seems like posturing. She makes long posts while lurker hunting and keeps her vote parked while decrying wagoning. What she calls scumtells are really just not-Miyu tells so what she's really arguing is Miyu=/=scum. Now, itmaybe true that Miyu believes these are the be-all-end-all of scumhunting, but I'm sure she's played with plenty of people who lurk and bandwagon as town, especially the latter, and she's ignoring my point about town lurking in this game despite the fact that she mentioned it before I did. Note that Robo was hardly lurking and his flagrant wagoning was only on D1. David hasn't been lurking either, though a glance at his bandwagoning just made me go hmmmmm...
UNVOTE: mallow
VOTE: David Parker
Hey David, will you please tell me why you were in the last half of every lynch wagon except SV's? And why you were throwing your vote away the rest of the time? Do you believe that being suspected by others is a scumtell?Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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Ythill Fabio
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There you specifically called them scumtells. Now you are saying that you think they are just anti-town, and that you are aware that town have done them in this game? You can't have your cake and eat it too. I'm not wholly convinced you're scum, and I don't intend on hanging you today, but this style of argument is not going to help your cause.Miyu wrote:Bandwagoning is a scumtell. Town has absolutely no reason to be throwing their vote around all over the place and .. bandwagoning. Inactivity is not a scumtell, however extremely annoying. Lurking is one.
And I already pointed out where you used the circumstances of replacement to argue that Xite is town. The comment I quoted was in direct response to me posting, "Nothing about Xite was obv-town." You are as familliar with the evidence as I am, so please don't insult my intelligence. What does similar behavior have to do with Xite's alignment?Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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I don't care what you said, I care what youMiyu wrote:Yes. I said it isscumtell, notaTHEscumtell.did. Your reread posts contained a total of 54 bullet points. 25 of those were IoA/null/filler, 3 were towntells. Of the 26 points where you called somone scummy for something, 16 of them were based on lurking and/or wagoning. That's more than all the other tells you listed combined. Since then, you've posted 19 specific accusations; of those, 10 have revolved around lurking and/or wagoning. Again, more than all other tells combined. So, either you think that lurking and wagoning are the be-all-end-all of scumtells or you are up to something else. Mytheoryis that you are playing strategically by calling the polar opposite of your own play scummy. If it's true, I don't think that theory proves that you are mafia, but it is something to keep an eye on.
I did read all of your posts (several times, actually) but your isos #1-3 keep making my eyes glaze over. That's beside the point. You mentionedbothXite's similar behaviorandthe similar circumstances of replacement. Neither of those things suggest that the slot is town. If true, these things might suggest that certain behaviors are not scumtells from Xite, which means your read should be null. Unless maybe I missed some other reasons you gave for that town read?
I don't see much point in defending against mud-slinging, but I suppose I can humor you...Sanx wrote:ytill, what's your defense of "changing votes" so frequently
Search my posts and you will find a few interesting things. You will see that I don't random vote but that I try to put a vote out as early as possible unless the game is in LYLO. You will see that, once I get my vote out, I move it often but rarely remove it entirely. You will see that I use it as a marker for my suspicions, and that I move it as new points are discovered through my analyses. You'll also find places in MD where I argue that vote-movement and grouping is incredibly useful for finding scum, because it creates a game full of dynamic movement and gives the scum more chances to create patterns that reveal their alignments. Now... compare those habits and opinions to my play here.
I replaced in and performed a context reread which lead to me being most suspicious of Miyu, due to what looked like scumslips from Wacka; I would have voted Miyu but I didn't want to place her close to lynch until I was done catching up. Then I performed a wagon analysis which didn't make Miyu's slot look very scummy to me but made mallow's look really bad; I voted mallow. Then I started doing iso rereads. When I did Wacka's, I found evidence suggesting that only one of mallow-Miyu is scum so I removed my vote, placing it temporarily on my third suspect, ZF. A reread of mallow's slot was next up, and it verified the other information I'd found about him and made me realize that if only one of he and Miyu is scum, it's him; so I put my vote back. In continuing my rereads, I was examining Miyu's points and found that one of them against David was valid (and something I missed in my wagon analysis, probably because of confirmation bias). The mod also said she'd be extending the deadline so I figured there was time for more information gathering and moved my vote to DP in an effort to learn more about his alignment, Miyu's, and the alignments of others who reacted to the new lynch prospect.
My votes have flowed from the evidence and my reasoning has been absolutely transparent, except maybe the info gathering motivation on David which, by definition, needs to be tacit to be effective. Those who are calling me out for it are either scum, OMGUSy townies, or bad at mafia. I don't think it's a towntell, especially from me because I do it across my meta, but it certainly doesn't make me scum.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
"So yeah, it is a sign from the angels." ~CooLDoG-
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In #961, Miyu wrote:Self voting is a null tell. I've seen townies do itIn #1022, Miyu wrote:I think roughly half of the playerlist has lurked at one point or another.In #1178, Miyu wrote:Lurking is a scumtell.
Hmmmm....In #1198, Miyu wrote:Lurking and bandwagoning are not town actions; and should not be encouraged. Regardless of whether or not they have been done by confirmed town previously, does not matter.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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The point of the quotes is that you called something a null tell because you have seen town do it and then called something else a scumtell in spite of the fact that you have seen town do it. Does not compute.
Win/win.Miyu wrote:I'll take that bet.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Hi hito. Thanks for replacing.
In case anyone is wondering, I dropped back from my spammy work ethic because of the deadline extension. I still intend to iso ZF and have now added David to the list as well. I'll probably get to those soon, tonight or tomorrow-ish.
This is pleasant news.Red wrote:I may have to step my game up!Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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ZF
An aggressive player, ZF has attacked 15/18 slots including Xite/mallow, Sanx, Sand, Muutha, smash/RC, David, Wacka/Miyu, 6 town, chi, and SV. Of those, voted Sandman (RV), Xite, Muutha, 3 town, and chi. He buddied with or defended smash, Wacka, David, 3 town, and SV. Early in the game, he redirected attacks from SV to Xite, which makes him seem unlikley to by mallow's buddy. However, his first chi vote was dirty; he argued that lurking was a null tell when it was used against SV (in spite of XF's lurker hate, which rival's Miyu's); and he created a bad Wacka-Robo dilemma. I didn't like the way he milked townie cred out of being on the chi wagon until the end, but I agree that scum might be hesitant to stop bussing the treacherous lover after it's already become inevitable. ZF stalling the Miyu lynchcould betelling, because it was similar to the way he stalled chi, but it might be nothing.
Cognitive dissonance. ZF supposedly believed that Robo and Millar were buddies. Why would he be basing his view of Millar's alignment on Robo's meta information? If it accurately points to Millar-scum, why would Robo-scum bring it up? This statement makes no sense from someone who believes they are scum together.In #533, ZF wrote:Robo said millar usually acts sane as a townie. Millar acted quite insanely this time. Meta suggests that he's not townie.
Not much of a conclusion here. ZF has dropped a few scumtells but nothing damning. He's probably not buddies with mallow, may be with Miyu or someone else, but I don't think he should be our lynch today.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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David
Paltry needed a sump-pump, that is all. David has been a little more active. He's attacked 9/18 slots including Wacka/Miyu, mallow, Sanx, 4 town, and both dead scum. Of those he voted all of them except Sanx and SV. He's buddied to or defended Xite, RC, ZF, and 4 town. Though I agree that David's entrance was strong, it was also populist and contained some rolefishing. Overall, he's formed convenient opinions and hasn't really looked for answers. His bandwagoning is atrocious, and is the type that benefits scum (late votes on lynch wagons, safe votes at all other times). His behavior towards me was very strange: he agreed with my scum read on ZF two posts after calling him town, and he later claimed that he was suspicious of me at first though his posts at the time of my entrance demonstrate the opposite to be true.
This reads like a mafioso who wants townie-cred for bussing.In #584, David wrote:Oh dear, a couple wall posts that I skimmed and no vote counts since L-3 so I missed it.
Oh well. I'm happy with this lynch or I wouldn't be on the list of players voting for him.
Here's where David subtly added SV to his suspicion list. No previous mention except an ambiguous "i like you" during his entrance. The main thing that happened in the interim is that SV started getting votes. What makes it doubly strange is what David said three days later...In #669, David wrote:I dunno, I no longer find him as scummy as Shattered/Enigma so not going to build a case there.
If he didn't get the case and he didn't post one of his own, why did David use SV as the bar for scumminess when discussing another suspect just three days prior? And is he really excusing himself for not lynching scum?In #700, David wrote:Wait, SV just self-voted and claimed scum. Interesting. I never even got the case on him being scum. Oh well.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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- My initial reread implicated Miyu and mallow. Also ZF.
- My VC analysis implicated mallow and David. Also Miyu, ZF, and RC.
- The Chi iso implicated mallow. Also Muutha, David, and ZF.
- The SV iso implicated mallow. Also Miyu.
- The Fidelis situation implicated: Miyu, ZF, and Sanx. Also mallow and RC.
- The D1 lover-bus implicated one of ZF/Miyu/Sanx/David + mallow (in hindsight, it looks to be David + mallow).
- The Wacka iso made Miyu look scummy, but if she's scum, mallow is town.
- The Xite/mallow isos confirmed that the slot is very scummy.
- The Miyu iso showed her to be a strategic player and slightly scummy, but nothing damning. Plus opened my eyes to David.
- The ZF iso made him look a little scummy, but also presented a couple of town caveats and ruled him out as buddies with mallow.
- The David iso made him look very scummy and presented no solid town evidence.
Though Miyu was at least lightly implicated by 7/11 analyses, she was among those most implicated by only 2/11 and was never the lone person to receive that designation. Wacka's play suggests that she is not on a scumteam with my top suspect. Her own iso is very null.
ZF was at least lightly implicated by 6/11 analyses, but he was only among those most implicated by 1/11 and was never the lone person to receive that designation. His iso contains both scum and towntells and, just like Miyu, he is obviously not connected to my top suspect.
David was at least lightly implicated by 5/11 analyses and was among those most heavily implicated by 2/11. His iso looks really bad though and, in hindsight, I see no caveats pointing to a town alignment.
My vote is on David now but I will gladly change it to mallow if that is the preference. Personally, I am interested in lynching soon, but I have no problem waiting for hito to catch up first.The remaining scum are mallow and David.
It is possible that Miyu and ZF are scum together, but far less likley than a mallow-David team. So... it looks like I'll be buying Miyu dinner.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Do you have a different take on the evidence that lead me to that conclusion? In brief, Wacka's most suspicious moments were a few posts that seemed like scumslips, the majority of which suggest that mallow's slot is town. Meanwhile, mallow is obv-scum.
People need to post and vote. We have five days until deadline.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Hito got it mostly right.Miyu wrote:That.. makes no sense.
Fact is, I don'tknowmallow's alignment, or Miyu's, or anyone's except mine, so I've tried to weigh the evidence. Most people, no matter what their alignment, are going to seem scummy in one way or another, whether it's because of suboptimal/strategic play, bad logic that seems false, the bad luck of being in the wrong spot during a VC, or beacuse that person is actually mafia. Wacka did some things that seemed scummy to me, the worst of which were the three places his statements made it seem like he knew people's alignments before they were revealed (I quoted them in #1166). In two of those three, he sounded as if he knew mallow was town.
This might have happened for several reasons. If Miyu is town, then it might have been the result of bad writing or overconfidence from Wacka. If Miyu is scum, then it might have been a real slip, and therefore prove that mallow is town Or it might have been extremely crafty distancing on Wacka's part. I know enough about that guy to know he's not a master of subtlety, so I ruled out the last option. Then I read Xite, mallow, and Miyu to determine which of the former it was more likley to be. What I found is that Xite and mallow lookedreallyscummy (worse than anyone else, by far) and Miyu was kinda meh. Therefore, my conclusion is that Wacka was being dumb/overconfident, Miyu is town, and mallow is scum with someone else.
Now, it ispossiblethat I am wrong. If mallow is town then Miyu is back on the table as a suspect, but there's not much point in discussing that today.
Orly? I'm not that easy...RC wrote:I want to come in an make some super convincing post, but I'm just no match for those intellecutal muscles of his. Honestly I'm not even trying to butter him up, these are just really solid posts.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Goodposting. Sanx seemed obv-town to me. I agree that RC has been a little empty and too trusting, but nothing really stood out as a scumtell during my initial reread and the slot has been pretty clean on the VCs. I might take a closer look at him tomorrow if I'm still alive, and someone else probably should if I am not.
If you're looking for pre-colored VC analysis, you can find mine in #1145. I didn't do every VC, but I think I got all of the major swings, labeled with mod-iso numbers in case you want to cross-reference. Of course you'll have to pretend my name isn't in green, but that should be no problem.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Heh. Scummy isnota manner of speaking. Why can't you simply give a summary of your opinions? Like a list of suspects with a few lines about why you suspect each? The closest you've come to doing so was #1121, which was empty of reasoning and posted more than two weeks ago.
@Miyu:A better question might be, how does it not make sense to you? I've explained twice and hito did a decent job too.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Sorry I've been absent, I've had houseguests. Anyway, I'm aware of the deadline and will be more active over the next ~24 hours.
It's odd, and apparently something I overlooked. It feels forced, is posted almost in spite of the current topics, and mallow seems very uncomfortable discussing the town-read with Enigma, who picks up on it as a tell. I think it reinforces my mallow-scum theory substantially, though I'm not sure if it would count as evidence for or against David if mallow is scum. On the one hand, it's a little too obvious and unnecesarry to be buddy-protection. On the other hand, it may have been a blunder.hito wrote:Ythill, I'm curious in your specific thoughts on ISO 34.
I don't, and it's true that my scum-meta favors bussing. However, it is also true that the one time that anyone has made this particular meta-argument against me, he was scum. I agree that I shouldn't get town points based on being correct with a read, but I also don't like fearmongering. Worse than your post, though, is David's reaction to it.hito wrote:Ythill: if you're town, please understand why I'm saying this and don't take it personally.
@Miyu:Will you be hammering mallow before the deadline falls?Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Read it again from the point of view of scum trying to determine whether millar was actually a lover or a townie running a gambit. The plan was just a sloppy lie to explain his behavior.Sand wrote:The one thing niggling me there though is the plan, which I still don't see as a being concoted by scum.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Just over twelve hours left to hammer, or today will end without a lynch. Those of you are not voting mallow have had plenty of time to push your alternatives and it's not happening. Lynch please.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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David is, although I'd seriously consider that point you asked me about (mallow's explicit buddying) before lynching him. If I'm right about mallow, Miyu is almost certainly town and ZF probably is too. Red has recently appeared on my radar, so he'd probably be my second choice if I found the buddying-caveat on David to be a conclusive towntell, but I haven't looked very closely at him and would need to do so before running him up.hito wrote:Who's your top suspect for last scum if mallow flips scum...
I haven't been looking for links outside of dead scum and my top suspects because I don't want to accidentally out our last pair of lovers before they are ready. However, if mallow is town, Miyu looks even worse because it means that Wacka's "scumslips"hito wrote:...and what is your pick for scumteam if mallow flips town?could belegitimate. I'd pressure her pretty hard, plus David and Red. Again, most of this is based on individual behavior.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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This is pleasant news. In case I die tonight...
Check out my previous post for pointers on what to do depending on the cardflip. If mallow is scum, Miyu is town; this is important because there's a lot of suspicion against her and so I can see the rest of you forgetting the Wacka-caveat. Use my analyses (FFS) but also look into the people I skipped over. Lovers should consider claiming tomorrow, especially if mallow is town. I guess that's everything.
Goodnight.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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David? Really?
We are in lover LYLO, meaning that three town deaths are possible and would end the game with a scum win. I think the lovers should claim but, before they do, everyone should list their top two scumpicks in popcorn fashion. I'd like Miyu to go first.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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I've been working on VC analyses with the new cardflips and there are some interesting developments. I'm going to wait until after lover claims to post them though, so I don't have to do them twice. Four new alignments are going to be revealed and this game is going to break open.
@Miyu:You're not very good at counting. Should I assume that your top two are Sanx/Hito? Who would you like to go next in the popcorn FoS? Also, you aresobuying me dinner.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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Of course you're going to say that. However, the facts are compelling. Not only does mallow's flip negate the caveat from yesterday, but other new information has surfaced as well. If you actually are town, you will have some work to do convincing me. I wish I could say more, but the lurkers have brought this game to a stop. One more day before prods can be sent out.
Even if I am wrong about Miyu, at least one town player must be stalling. This is not acceptable, as it is wasting our time before deadline. Post your scumpicks. Now.
I've been doing analysis behind the scenes and I'm no longer completely sure about Red. Miyu is still my #1 suspect by a long shot though.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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QFT.Miyu wrote:Would be nice if we could move on from this stage already.
Sanx will qualify for a prod in about an hour. His lurking is ridiculous, especially considering that he's prob-town. I've got several pages of analysis just sitting on my drive, waiting. And my patience is wearing thin.Record:Town 10W/15LScum 4W/1LOther 2W/2LNewbie 1L
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