Newbie 1046: Game Over

[Ghostlin]

1) Unless something unexpected happens, I will not be V/LA in the future.
2) I've read a fair amount of the wiki, even some player profiles and some non mafia games.
3) I have read completed games but mostly the most relevant parts, not every single post.
4) I'm currently been in four mafia games on this site, lynched day 1 in my very first, replaced in to another newbie game that's on Day 5, and am currently playing in a Mini Theme: No Exit Mafia. So I am in three games, but one of them I've almost over with and this one and the No Exit have just started (I don't qualify nearly for SE because none of these games are completed; they're still ongoing).

[Ghostlin]

Stefan: I'm not the mod, but it be GMT-6 (I'm in MTN so I'm GMT-7)

[Ghostlin]

My own questions/comments:

5. Timezone: I live in GMT +1 (Europe), where do you live.
6. Okay Haylen is female (know that), our mod too. Please if you don't have that in at last your profile say it here.
7. What we have to be careful of in the rules. If we have no majority in the the deadline we will have a no lynch, something town in most cases doesn't want.
8. Okay, that's personal me. English isn't my first language, so mistakes and some interesting grammarconstructions are posible, sorry. If I am not understandeble, (should not happen often, at last not with English being the reason) I will try it again. It shouldn't be a problem, and we play mafia, so talking about something is normal.

Scummy reads at the moment not so much, but the game just started and normaly I need at last a little bit to start, also posted enough for today.

I live in GMT time at the moment, in a few months it should be moved to GMT+1. I'm from England, specifically Bournemouth and Southampton (I travel at the weekends and am exhausted after work which is why I'm V/la on Saturday and Sunday.)

The only time I advocate no lynching is during mylo in this game it will be when there is 4 players left (if we have lynched one scum) or when there are 6 players (if we haven't lynched any scum) left. Because if we mislynch, the mafia will kill and we will lose. I'm trying to tell you all everything before I die >.<

CST is apparently GMT-6

The dying comment is curious, so I'll just ask this for my own purposes: Do you often

not

make it to endgame? I've heard trying to analyze scum kills can lead to dangerous amounts of WIFOM, but usually by the time endgame rolls around, if you're town, if you are at all useful or good at scumhunting, you often don't make it there, either through misdirection or nightkills.

Also, do you think this kind of causal inception is a good idea? (If you don't know what I mean by this, just ask, but I'm trying to avoid text walls, which I've been told is not good and something I tend to do.)

[Ghostlin]

In the RVS, the only motatvation for anyone one to vote is to drive the game forward. Its a reflection of the pre-game state of things. This state is unobserverable and yet it is the most important state of the game, because pre-game everyone was given their roles. RVS by itself is useless. The scum hunting after RVS is much more observerable. We can theorize the motivation of a player's post after attention has been drawn to them.

fluff -> RSV -> d1 scumhunt

@Haylen: I wanted to see how Deer would handle more attention on him early in the game. As of now fairly well. Being SE, he should have the mad tact to play off RVS pressure.

@WhenInRome: You should take caution defending people you do not know. I don't know your motives but buddying up to me looks more scummy on you then me.

@Deer: I voted for you because I felt like giving you a hard time, and you must have the mad tact to handle two votes on you. I don't want to start a wagon on people solely on RSV.

Interesting. Is it really pressure if you're just random voting him to see how he'll react to the faux wagon? Unless you buckle under pressure really easily, it's easy to maintain one's composure during RVS: the votes don't mean much. It's like the opening bet in poker; unless someone really does something odd like raises or bets low at this stage, it's really hard to tell what they've got in their hand.

Also, a quick tip I've learned in the four or so games I've played here: unless you're being asked directly what you think someone's motivations are, do not offer free information on their behalf. It makes you seem buddying, which makes you seem scummy. While you will make alliances with other players by necessity in order to achieve the lynch, everyone except two of us know that only one of us is innocent: ourselves. And the two of us who knows everyone's alignment wants the rest of us dead.

@Deer: you reacted poorly to the information provided by Poe, when it's really Haylen's job to press for an answer. Were you afraid of how we'd react to Poe defending you, or was there another reason?

[Ghostlin]

@Deer: Bluntly: Bussing is a concern any time someone reasks a question someone else asks. Reasking a question could close a line of inquiry for that player to continue to persue to form a possible later case: I slightly misposted there. It's not much that the onus is on Haylen to continue to post, it's just that it's much more effective if someone goes: "Hey, you didn't answer my question. Why?" rather than if another player goes: "You didn't answer Player X's question. Why?" The first adds pressure in ignoring that player. The second could possibly be considered the start of sheeping or bussing.

Plus, if she doesn't reask the question, it shuts off a line of inquiry on Haylen. As in: "Player X ignored this. Why didn't you call them out on it?" This lets Haylen off the hook if someone else reasks it, because she can just simply say, "Because Player Z already asked for me."

As for your reply; the line of answering wasn't so much scummy as on first read, it seemed defensive from this end of the computer screen. That's not a tell, necessarly, but someone being sensitive about their defenses could be an indication of scum. (I, as a player, expect everyone to defend themselves, but as town, you have a little less to fear of lynch before lylo and mylo than scum.)

Lastly, you don't know what's in my head it and opens up the question of why you're speaking for another player.

@Stefan: That's a curious thing to infer from one sentence. Just because I said it was one person job to reask the question and push for more clarification a question they asked for their own purposes is not the same thing at all as 'we shouldn't scum hunt.' In fact I list the reasons above for why the same person should do this (to prevent seeming like you're trying to bus, buddy up to the same person, to apply more pressure, to get asked why you didn't reask the question if you don't as a more subtle line of inquiry). That almost seems like a rather large distortion.

It'd be akin to me taking Deer's comment earlier (gonna use you as a guinea pig, Deer):

It seems like you're trying to shut down a perfectly fine line of questioning when you answer for him like that. That's all.

And then making the leap that Deer believes that Poe and WIR are scumbuddies. It's somewhat suspicious when someone answers for someone else, and seeming sort of buddy behavior, but it also could be nerves, or the innate attitude of someone being helpful. It also would infer you can summarize what Deer thinks innately. I don't acutally believe Deer believes Poe and WIR are a scumteam.

However, you in essence believe that since I said it's really Haylen's job to press for an answer for a question she asked (for the reasons I elaborated on) that I believe only the IC should be the one scumhunting.

In fact, why would you post this:

The Deersituation: It was a nice to get some reaction from him, but: Being the last to confirm is no way near a scumtell, (don't know where I read it in the wiki) town does it often enough. Second point Deer is a replacement, he confirmed less than 24 hours after GLaDOS told us that he would replace. Just get your facts right.

When WIR posted this much eariler:

No I do not, he could have been busy and did not see the message. I feel we should get more info from him before we call it scummy. Also, about AwesomePoe, I don't think it makes a big difference if he votes Deer, there are two votes and it takes 5 to lynch, so Deer is in no danger. If he was at L-1, that would be different.

It's not very likely that most of town believes Deer is scum on that. In fact the person who asked the question SAID they don't believe Deer is scum for being last to confirm. The defense is unnecessary and aggressive on Deer's behalf.

So, let me ask you this: why make a dead point to defend another player on something that no one necessarly believes? Why would you be concerned whether or not Deer could defend himself against that?

Also, how would you know exactly when Deer confirmed? The only one who would know this would be GLaDoS, who would of picked up our PMs.

I'll get to my Causal Inception comment in the next post.

[Ghostlin]

The causal inception comment comes from an idea in the movie Inception: In it, there's an exchange where one of the character uses the following correlary:

"If I tell you not to think about elephants, what do you think about?" "Elephants."

Haylen had posted the following eariler:

I'm trying to tell you all everything before I die >.<

This isn't as subtle as thinking about elephants when told not to, but it could implant the suggestion that Haylen will be leaving us soon. (Because she's town and the mafia will bump her off for being useful.) It could make an assumption that could color our play. It also could create a lot of false arguments through the game (what if she lives to endgame, etc?).

[Ghostlin]

First to get the more unimportant parts of the posting out of the way

Ghostlin wrote

So, let me ask you this: why make a dead point to defend another player on something that no one necessarly believes? Why would you be concerned whether or not Deer could defend himself against that?

Also, how would you know exactly when Deer confirmed? The only one who would know this would be GLaDoS, who would of picked up our PMs.

I don't know when Deer confirmed, I only know that it took him less then 24 hours because there are less than 24 hours between GLaDOS replacement post and the conforment post. So logic.

Perhaps I should have let this rest, but I saw it yesterday and though first lets see how Deer reacts, than post it.

May also be a bad case of trying to brag. But it's a dead topic for me also, so you really want to discuss that point further?

Ghostlin again:

Bussing is a concern any time someone reasks a question someone else asks. Reasking a question could close a line of inquiry for that player to continue to persue to form a possible later case: I slightly misposted there. It's not much that the onus is on Haylen to continue to post, it's just that it's much more effective if someone goes: "Hey, you didn't answer my question. Why?" rather than if another player goes: "You didn't answer Player X's question. Why?" The first adds pressure in ignoring that player. The second could possibly be considered the start of sheeping or bussing.

Okay the point was in your answer to Deer, but it shows my problem that if have with your logic better than anything that you wrote that was directed by me. Okay it was Haylens question, but come on. Just a few points. He could be interesting in the answer also. Haylen is not very active in weekends, so we will have to wait for an answer. Sheeping is a very strong term for what happened. Start of bussing I can say much about. Just that is is very strange.

In the whole thing I don't care that is about Deer. For me it's more about logic and that what you wants hurts town imho. Waiting for Hayley 2 days (worst case) is not a good option. Also I belive more activity = good.

1) First off, I don't quite understand what you're getting at; are you saying WIR or Deer are bragging, when you say the bold line above?

I can accept the logic at face value: I just continually question the need to have to defend that issue. Particularly, again, when the attacker didn't actually believe it himself after being questioned by Haylen. I seriously don't believe confirmation order is important, and I sorta went 'huh?' when I read the attack and wrote it off as RVS.

2) Sheeping is a me-too attitude that you can see in some games, usually accompanies a vote for a wagon. Bussing is jumping on a wagon for bad or no reason. Let me ask you this question: If someone repeatedly defends or asks someone's questions for them in a game where two people know each other are on a team when anyone else doesn't and want to cause the other players to lose, what

might

you think of that person?

People think alike, yes: but it's unlikely that I can't come up with a unique idea myself. A town that rehashes the same points over and over isn't an active town, it's a town parrot each other. My problem isn't talking. It's really not. Anyone who reads my short posts probably could say I talk just fine. It's just you get your own reasons for doing what you do and not follow anyone else's because if you follow the first suggestion in front of you or follow a player, even the IC, town may lose because if the IC's mafia, we'll lynch innocent townies. A lot of them. We need content, yes, but we need content uniquely created by the players.

I like the fact that you've formed an opinion enough to seriously vote someone at this stage; it certainly gets town talking. Now, how do you feel about WIR's answering the question for someone else taking in the same considerations on how you voted me?

In fact, you've been kinda quiet,

WIR

, so let me ask you this: after being in the game the short while we've been here, give me your opinion on someone and how they've been playing/posting. Be sure to highlight things you find town like or suspicious.

The entire town probably should do this eventually, but I'm targeting WIR because he seems to have quieted after Deer's last response to him.

Back to what I meant about Haylen: my biggest problem with the whole 'I better spit this out before I die' is the possibility of WIFOM if she doesn't die (I actually hate WIFOM a lot), the drawing attention to herself inadvertently for NK in a game full of newbies could possibly hurt town, and the simple fact if she's not scum and the IC, I'd rather NOT see her dead. This could also give off a town vibe where none exists: she posts she needs to get her stuff out before dying may be a useful thing for us to believe as a Mafia player. It's nothing to really go on, but something to keep in mind.

[Ghostlin]

Okay slight correction:

[whitout having a good reason than it will not go so strong/quote]

should have mean: I will pressure stronger.

Okay another correction: I didn't want to say that AP was sure scum or something yust that if Ghostlin means it he should pressure him.

AwesomePoe: I like it that you are more active stay that way.

Nikitakit: Be active. I know that it is very difficult to get reads on people, be patient we are just on page 3. The only think that you should be sure of know is that if one of us is scum, he didn't take the lurker rute.

Lets get to the lurkers: chkflip and hurristat haven't posted once. Hello guys!!!!!!!!!

And to get back to Ghostlin (sorry must get my thoughts in more order): You are not voting, why?

WIR (just the new points) just in the first point, get the he/she think in order, you are not making friends with that. Also post more.

The simplest answer is I don't vote until someone says something scummy or is active lurking. I was going to vote nikita, to be honest, but he actually posted; and something relevant to the conversation. Yes, I do vote active lurkers; the fact that they only post sporadically means they could be staying under the radar. The only reason why I like RVS is it's the staging ground for discussion like this, I've never been a fan of 'lol, I'm voting X because the sky's blue.' It rankles, this is a game of deduction, and while I'm sure you all are great folks, there's not much mafia playing done there until someone says something odd.

I am going to vote now. Right now I like the logic of WIR less and less; and it's been things like: he answers for Poe, he distorts at least two sentences for two different people as a particularly eager set of scum tells, and Deer's right, it almost seems like a thinly concealed OMGUS, which is bad. He's also not a horrifically prolific poster, when you read at least his last few comments, while they aren't lengthy, which is good, they don't tell us much of what's going on with his vote and who he suspects, which means he's playing it close to the vest. The longest post was kinda all over the place, and filled with bad logic. All of that right now makes WIR my favorite suspect.

Vote: WIR

Interestingly enough, I'm not a huge fan of Deer's posts either, although they have more content. While it wouldn't seem that Deer would scum buddy WIR, it would not be untoward scum play to stage an argument over something in order to distance one's self from the argument. Deer's a more prolific poster in volume of posts...I'm not sure what part of this total package makes me suspect Deer yet, it's a case that's started with someone I personally distrust in scum play that I'm working on a more developed case (or willing to drop) as time goes by.

IGMEOY: Deer

Stefan B: I've caught some distortions in your posts, but I'm not sure they're bad enough to be scummy. I'll probably watch it, and try to determine if the lack of understanding is intentional (you're trying to intentionally distort my intentions/what I say in my posts) or a difference in game play or language barrier. It's not as naked as WIR's deliberate distortion of: I've done something only once, so I get a free pass;

or

because you said you hate the RVS but say that actions that can be taken during it can be helpful to town, you're contradicting yourself, hence you are scummy.

FoS: Stefan B

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: The he/she thing also may annoy you dude, but isn't a scum tell, so please do us all a favor and don't base any cases on it. Folks do it all the time.

[Ghostlin]

Oh, crap. That'll put WIR at L-1, which is much too early for this game. I thought he would be at L-2 with my vote. Sorry guys, I'm downgrading him for now, because I don't want someone to accidently hammer. Or on-purpose accidently for now.

unvote

FoS: WIR

I apologized, I just counted the votes myself, it'd be Haylen, Deer, Poe, myself on WIR's wagon, the next vote could quicklynch him and I don't want to give scum that opportunity this early in the game.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: So the mod doesn't get confused, it should read:

unvote

FoS: WIR

[Ghostlin]

@Ghostlin: I understand unvoting the quick lynch because a quick lynch doesn't yield much info for day two. I can imagine long days getting really tense towards the deadline. Are there any strong scum reads then WIR atm? And if this were a deadline situation would you stick with the wagon to the lynch?

WIR is the most scummy at the moment. If it was deadline and we had uncovered nothing else, then yes, I'd stick with the wagon. I'd hammer if I'd had to. It's not deadline. It's page 3 on a game where there are a full two weeks left until deadline. There was no point in risking L-1, having scum hammer and send us into twilight; even if WIR is scum. It denies us information, and while we could press WIR for a claim at L-1, there's always the quick hammer.

(As a note: my vote would of put him at L-1, not hammered him. You can't unvote the hammer in newbie games. The game goes to twilight instantly after a vote to hammer is cast.)

There's no reason we shouldn't take the full amount of time on Day 1. When everyone's scum reads get more developed, then we might want to take less time on Day 2, Day 3, etc, maybe. The most viable situation where a day goes by fast is any day with a No Lynch situation (which we don't want happening, and maybe want happening less at D1). Someone will get lynched today.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP= So there's no confusion, today= Day 1.

[Ghostlin]

Just to ad somethink that we should take into accont. A lot of people are very quite, to quite to read them. Most people should post more. As alternative to lynch WIR I would sugest to lynch one of the worst lurkers, the problem is who? Lurking through game is a strategie of mafia, but to much townies are using it at the moment too. Form opinions, ask questions do somethink!
Lurkers at the Moment: Chkflip, huristat (the only one I won't lynch, because the problems should be over soon), nikitakit (still waiting on your 3rd post)
Hell: Deer and WIR could be called semilurkers at the moment and I really wait for Haylen to post. (If you subtract the IC posts there isn't that much Haylenplayerpostings) The last one may be me being impatient, she has better reason than some others, but it's frustrating.

Important: IF the DISCUSION between Ghostlin and me is the problem, just ignore it. It isn't at the front at the moment, just start to play.

This is acutally a fairly decent post: I don't believe in lynching all lurkers; however inactivity at certain times can be an indicator of scumminess. I'm hoping for more posts from nikita, quite frankly, and more content from huristat.

I wouldn't advocate the bolded seriously, tho'. If it impares your reading now, skip over it, but RETURN to it. Read both of us in iso and what we're really trying to say as the days drag on. Do not discard anything anyone says, and don't afraid to apply pressure when you've got something to latch onto.

Oh, and Ghostlin's number one mafia rule of things that annoy Ghostlin: do not ever argue, 'well, that's stupid, town/scum would never play that way.' First off, there are people who do suboptimal play in all alignments. Some of them do it as a gambit. Two, you can turn this into a case without resorting to 'too stupid to be town/scum.' Three, it's vaguely insulting. I'd rather advocate that people are competent, even if new, then not.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: Oh, I

do

think all active lurkers (and what I mean is folks that don't post anything with content often) need to die by rope, using the following Occam's Razor correlary: if you're not contributing to town, you are either scum or you're not useful to us.

[Ghostlin]

His questions with regards to my 'dying' comment rub me up the wrong way a bit. It seems like he is trying to gouge whether scum should kill me during the night, especially since he admits that he asks for his own purposes.
Ghostlin (to AwesomePoe) wrote:
Also, a quick tip I've learned in the four or so games I've played here: unless you're being asked directly what you think someone's motivations are, do not offer free information on their behalf. It makes you seem buddying, which makes you seem scummy.
This looks like he is coaching his scumbuddy. The last sentence is ok, advising somebody not to do something because it looks scummy is not. This is something that I'm going to take a note of for later in case one of you gets lynched or nightkilled because it could be evidence that there is a link between the two of them. Can I ask if you both know each other outside of the game?

Ghostlin wrote:
However, you in essence believe that since I said it's really Haylen's job to press for an answer for a question she asked (for the reasons I elaborated on) that I believe only the IC should be the one scumhunting.
I think that might be a language or internet barrier. I too believed until I read this for the fourth time that you thought I should only be the one scumhunting.

I agree with his don't sheep the IC point.


IC Hat: "You can't unvote the hammer in newbie games. " You can't unvote after the hammer in ANY game. However, it is wise to discuss during twilight. If a townie is lynched, they need to get their reads out ASAP, if a PR dies, they need to tell us their targets and results. If mafia die, it would be really useful if they would tell us their buddies


Ghostlin wrote:
Oh, and Ghostlin's number one mafia rule of things that annoy Ghostlin: do not ever argue, 'well, that's stupid, town/scum would never play that way.'
To add to this. Everybody plays differently, we all have a 'meta', how we play each alignment. Players can become aware of their metas and change it to suit their town meta under every alignment - however, an important thing to remember is that nobody can fully change their meta, there are always very subtle tells - usually, there's a specific tell that a player can't change no matter how hard they try.

I currently have a neutral leaning scum read on Ghostlin. Wouldn't mind lynching him if I was forced to choose somebody to lynch at this time in the game.

1) Really, I asked for my own reasons to see if I could get some conversation out of you or if you said something that made me feel I needed to form a case around. I wanted to bring it to town's attention mostly because, while a null tell, seemed an odd thing to say as a townie. I guess my question to you on this point would be: Unless you're a PR, a townie doesn't have much to fear about dying this early in the game because wagons provide information. I've heard this statement said a lot of times in a lot of different ways through reads of different games.

Do you agree or disagree with that statement? Why or why not?

Also, no, I don't know Poe from Adam off MS. Bluntly, I suspected the person of buddying who answered the question for him.

2) That's more subject to misinterpretation: what I meant bluntly is as a big person and the IC, you're more than willing to speak for yourself and it destroys more opportunities than you don't. As chkflip commented, brevity isn't my strong suit.

3) I'm not really talking meta here. What I'm talking about is a knee jerk reaction that if someone does something that might be termed stupid, they aren't necessarly town/scum. That's an interesting point to make tho'. Tell me, did you ask if we played in previous games to get meta?

Mod Edit: Quote tag fixed.

[Ghostlin]

My humble opinion is that active lurking doesn't help town, it's what Hurristat is doing and it's a better scum play to conceal information than a town play. In other words, I'm done with prodding with three to four posts to get one person to post.

vote: Hurristat

[Ghostlin]

From Nikitanit:

Ghostlin: "Causal inception" and Vote/unvote are the only things that stand out to me, but that's not enough to base a case on.

Two questions: 1) If this isn't enough to base a case around why are you still voting me?

AND

2) That last post gives off somewhat random suspicions of people you suspect but really aren't worth your vote, but doesn't include who you suspect and ARE worth your vote.

If deadline was tomorrow, who would you vote that was scum?

[Ghostlin]

From Poe:

Yes this was terrible on my part. Rereading my post, it just sucks. I was curious of Ghostlin’s actions. He has been posting a lot but I didn’t understand what he was trying to do with all his posts. He wasn’t building any wagons, but he was posting a bunch of theory out there.

I saw him take his vote off of WIR and I read him scummy.

Rereading, it’s much less scummy and a lot more town.

Huh? Unvoting is scummy? I still find this curious, because it seems to indicate to me you didn't read the thread when you first posted the suspicion, which concerns me, because you didn't either read the revelant part of what I posted to find out why I had unvoted, or you just sort of picked out what you might make a case out of.

Also, chkflip makes a good point: how exactly do we know you're not doing the exact same thing. In fact, both you and WIR have votes on each other and both of you I'd say are good for a lynch. Also, Haylen accused me of coaching, but this is also an interesting coaching moment from you:

@WhenInRome: You should take caution defending people you do not know. I don't know your motives but buddying up to me looks more scummy on you then me.

Also, what do you have to say about hurristat's current suspicions on you?

[Ghostlin]

Reading WIR in ISO, I can't decide if he's just misleading or new at this, but I don't find anything to necessarly argure my previous vote; there's a lot of distortions there. Also a lot with AP, but I like WIR a bit more due to a little less content.

VOTE: WIR

[Ghostlin]

I will do 'The Missing Analysis' on Monday, I could get it done tomorrow at a big push but I know I'm gonna be working then studying all round the clock tomorrow - I'm not even sure if I'll have time to sleep...

To give you a bit of an update on what I have been reading.
Stefan is my strongest town read at the moment - we WILL NOT be lynching him today unless he claims scum.
Unfortunately, the majority of people here at the present time are neutral reads, I would be comfortable in lynching none of you. It's annoying but that's the way some games go, especially on Day One.

Okay, first of all, the "we WILL NOT" comment just seems out of place. The fact is, if he gets enough votes, we will lynch him. That comment makes it seem like you are telling us what to do, which is a scumtell. Poe is my main suspect, but it's a bad idea to put him at L-1 so early. So for now:
VOTE: Haylen

I actually agree with the lady's opinion on this one and this vote almost seems like a muffle of some sort. Stefan has been responsible to keep the town moving and his subsequent actions have been undeniably pro-town here on Day 1. Haylen, while not horribly active, is correct when she says that we shouldn't lynch Stefan on Day 1 unless he claims a scum role or makes a horrible play in judgement, it's counter town's goals to lynch someone who is most likely town. This seems to be a muffle to stop Haylen from continuing to contribute when she wrote a statement worded rather strongly: We will not lynch StefanB today unless he claims scum into leading the town for scummy reasons. The fact is, Stefan's been one of our most active posters and has said a lot to scum hunt. Why

would

we vote him?

Also, this is a rather weak reason to vote someone; I've said things to town in games before that were statements I thought were obvious and directing. If we're not confident with our suspicions, then how can we convince anyone else of them and win this game? This almost seems like a defacto way to discredit Haylen. In addition to your other actions, it makes me MORE confident in my vote for you.

[Ghostlin]

More likely to be scum:

WIR:

For as much as he's here, he acutally doesn't post much content. There's a lot of 'I'm still here,' when you read in iso. His largest analysis post wasn't a post so much as a pick the rest of town part session, and has similar logic used against Poe that he uses against Haylen in 129. Not posting much + crap logic= probable scum.

AP:

When you read between the lines, AP doesn't say much. He's also posted five-six times this game. I disagree what he says in ISO 4, and it almost, rereading it seems like he's defending anyone who hammers scum on Day 1 as not scum. If a scum thinks the jig is up, they will throw their buddy under the bus, Day 1 or Lylo. He spends a lot of time defending himself, but I've not seen an expansion on his suspicions, and his last post was about three days ago.

nikitanit:

You promised us reads, and you've not delivered. You've posted about as much as WIR/AP. The only thing you manage to say is that you think Haylen's seemingly Day 1 Finger of Innocence you dislike the tone of; then you dissolve into a distancing of WIR. I'd suspect scumbuddies, but it's too soon to tell, because your fear of L-1 and subsequent is valid and a town attitude.

The Rest of the Town, in order:

1) StefanB: Unless it meant today ended in a no lynch situation or you claim scum, I'm not voting for you today. Your posts are well thought out, you have great cases for your suspicions, and you generally want to play this game protown. (No lynch is bad today because it doesn't let us confirm the wagons and makes us essentally start over on Day 2 with this process.)
2) Deer: You tend towards brevity, which makes you hard to read (as a person), but unlike some folks I've read on this site, you do stop and explain who you're voting for and why.
3) Haylen: You've maintained a level of activity as IC, I wish I just had more. I'm looking forward to your next read.
4) Chkflip: You came roaring out with that analysis, and I understand your V-LA, hope your mother is doing better; I hope we can get more awesome analysis from you (and Haylen) too.
5) Hurristat: You tend very slightly towards netural by the lurking the game started out with, but you're getting better.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: Town's ranked from least scummy to neutral.

[Ghostlin]

This changed when he lynched Haylen

No one's been lynched yet?

[Ghostlin]

@Mod: Can I get a vote count, please?

No one

else

vote for WIR unless you want to be lynched soon after on D2, I believe that's L-1, which would OK if we want WIR to talk and do a claim.

@Everyone not WIR: is everyone comfortable with the idea of a WIR lynch, and do you want him to claim?

@WIR: Defense, please.

[Ghostlin]

@Mod: Can I get a vote count, please?

No one

else

vote for WIR unless you want to be lynched soon after on D2, I believe that's L-1, which would OK if we want WIR to talk and do a claim. [/b]

EBWOP: This is supposed to indicate if you hammer before WIR has a chance to claim/defend himself. We still want to get as much information as we can so NO ONE hammer WIR.

[Ghostlin]

Well, that's the...hammer....

Somehow, this all worked out much better in my head then it did in the thread.

[Ghostlin]

Let's get this day rolling with this accustation, two most scummy things I've noticed today:

1) Nikita didn't vote at all Day 1 and spent most of it active lurking.
2) Hurristat seemed to be fishing for doctor speculation; which Haylen is 100% right about everything she said.

Hurristat's action concerns me, but I find nikitanit's entire Day 1 play to be pretty scummy.

Vote: nikitanit

[Ghostlin]

That's L-1 vote on Nikit. L-2 if votes reset each day.

Vote counts reset each day. So it'd be L-2, not L-1.

[Ghostlin]

@SB: Your vote pattern is unstable because it varies alot throughout the day. It matters not what reasons you have. This was an analysis of voting patterns which are objective. Your vote has been devalued by flip flopping on many people.

Me being on one wagon day one has nothing to do with you being on 5. Actually I was on my own on WIR p99 to p114. This all seems like a nasty defense on something you can’t change and shows something you don’t want other people to see.

You do make one good point. cflip was only barely active because of his player analysis.

Except you joined a wagon that was started by the IC on P13, and joined by Deer about P49. So you did join an existing wagon and never really hopped off.

In fact, you seemed very concerned about the WIR wagon all that day, particularly near the end of it:

This post stood out to me:

Random thoughts aren't constructive. They don't make good cases for voting, nor do they clarify another person's actions. Reading your post, WhenInRome, I don't understand what point any of these thoughts make.

WhenInRome was adding his input to the town, and AwesomePoe dismisses it as "not constructive" and "pointless." As far as I'm concerned, any input is helpful, even if they're mafia -- they could slip up and make a mistake, and if they're town, they probably have good ideas that the rest of the town can benefit from (which is why my lurking is so bad). Trying to shut someone up because you don't like their argument...

Here is the thing, there weren’t any arguments in WIR iso9 that I found informative. The case against me is based on my reaction to WIR09. You can objectively see my FoS turn into a vote after WIR09. This can be seen as tunneling. However the content of WIR09 and its meaningfulness is subjective. Most of his points were parroted from other posters. To me, he wasn’t being constructive he was trying to look like town without putting in the effort. This couple with his vote on Deer convinced me to put my vote on him.

AP didn't say anything until chkflip's diagnosis, where s/he said this:

I am being cautious around people who seem to be friendly.

yes, and this is good... but it's almost like s/he's looking for a reason to vote/put an FoS on someone, and not allowing the target of the FoS to exonerate themselves. Ultimately, all the town has on their side is logic and reason, and s/he dismisses it as "not constructive" and "pointless."

Many other people have asked for his defense which he has yet to provide.

You can’t say I’m not allowing him to exonerate himself when others have asked for it, and they haven’t had their concerns answered. I throw up my hands because I’m powerless to control WIR posting. As soon as people have a reason to remove their votes on him, they will.

@Ghostlin & Everybody: I want to see WIR claim and defend himself from the very possible lynch.

Did the bolded part actually concern you? I have to agree with one part of chkflip's analysis, you rode WIR pretty hard. In fact, all of your posts are vacant of anyone else. Now that we're at Day 2; who do you really like as scum now that WIR's gone?

Your analysis isn't 100% complete by the way; I did have a quick WIR vote and unvote on Day 1 when I realized such an action would put him at L-1 early in the day. I'm not sure that counts, considering your definition of unstable is:

Unstable means having a voting pattern that varys more than twice.

Fun fact: hurristat has had 15 posts this game (this includes Day 2), AP has had 12 posts this game, and nikita has had 7 posts.

So, AP: if I were to say something like: AP: Except for an early Deer lynch, he joined a early wagon against WIR and continued to hold that vote even when votes moved off and on the wagon; Stable, lurker.

Would you agree with that analysis of your Day 1 voting patterns?

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: For entire accuracy, chkflip has had 8 posts. Also,

mod: I know chkflip declared V-LA due to some sensitive issues, but he's not posted after last Sunday and he said he'd be back Wednesday. Could you send him a prod, please? I'd think he'd want to be back for day 2.

[Ghostlin]

@Ghostlin: yeah that’s a perfectly good analysis. I left myself open so that if somebody wanted to they could look at me and not have to take my word on my voting pattern. The reason I don’t show that vote/unvote was because the time between them was too small, so I didn’t consider it.

I think StefanB is pretty scummy. During day one he was pretty free with his vote, but never got much attention for it. He’s voted for just about everybody, but nobody has really cared, because a few posts later he turns his attention elsewhere. These votes have only put people into the L-3 or L-4. But I could easily see him hammering somebody later in the game when it takes less people to lynch.

Really I don’t care about nikit right now so I’m unvoting.

unvote

.

There are no agnostics in Mafia. Town usually has an idea who they like for scum, scum knows who they must eliminate. Your wishy-washy almost bored pattern of voting

now

worries me, along with your active lurking Day 1. I wonder if you placed your vote where you knew it would be 'safe' Day 1; placed it on Nikitanit Day 2, worried your buddy might get lynched at L-2 when town's been going after an active lurker and then removed it with the reasoning 'but I don't care about nikit right now.'

HoS: Awesome Poe

The voting analysis seems to be a way to attack townies that you see as 'unstable' on day 1 while clearing yourself (you are the most stable voter on Day 1 including myself). Yes, Stefan's voted a lot of times but has always left some sort of case with his votes, and has used them perhaps an inexperienced tool to generate pressure; and each one of his victims has responded, like I placed that Day 1 vote on hurristat to get him moving. This is Day 2, you should have some definite opinions on who's scum and who's not:

who do you like for scum, and why?

Also I advise everyone here: voting patterns, while important are not the only thing that matters. Look at what people are saying with their votes. Analyze that. While the Day 1 voting chart is somewhat helpful, I'll admit, using it as a jumping off as your case shouldn't be the only reason. Reread Day 1. Analyze people in ISO. Ask yourself, 'what is this person NOT saying?'

My only complaint about Stefan is he's ratcheted it back from Day 2 to Day 1 when we need people to make cases and hit folks hard. Town needs to be an aggressive, working force. Being wishy washy is for scum. We need to be able to get scum to make gambits and bad plays.

Mod Edit: Quote tag added by request.

[Ghostlin]

EBOWP:

Mod: I screwed up. The unvote isn't mine, it's a quotation from AP, and I must of deleted the last quote tag. Could you fix and make sure my vote is still on nikitakit?

[Ghostlin]

Okay Ghostlin wrote:

My only complaint about Stefan is he's ratcheted it back from Day 2 to Day 1 when we need people to make cases and hit folks hard.

Sorry I'm not quite sure what you mean whit this, can you explain it?

You're not as aggressive as you were on Day 1. We

need

aggressive Day 2. I'm not saying abandon your play style and be a dick, but there's not much to be gained to not pushing as hard as you can. Don't post less necessarily because people aren't posting: it encourages people to go in fits of 'oh, I'll post when he posts.' And we get nowhere.

I hope that clarifies the situation.

@Ghostlin: You’ve asked this question persistently and to answer: my vote will speak for itself. My day one method of scum hunting only got rid of a player who didn’t want to play. Call this fence sitting but, nikit is a definite lurker and I don’t see any point of putting my vote on him if nothing is to be gained from it. Later in the day if it’s a deadline situation I’ll come back to it. Right now I am looking everybody.

I don't like this. I'll be real honest with you here. Your vote hasn't done a lot of talking except to parrot a lot of the thoughts town has here; your nikitakit vote could mean something if you gave it meaning. Instead, I'm getting wishy washy from you in a situation where we still have a great chance of winning despite one of the towns acting like a VI Day 1. With an admission of no backup plan and the fact that you'll only unveil your arguments and cases when you're ready to vote; it sounds like you're hedging your bets for any wagon that might come along.

You whip out this analysis against StefanB so he could give you his reasons for voting: if you're going to make a pseudo-case for him, why didn't you vote to back it up?

That's scummy. We don't need people to hop wagons, we need people to contribute to the analysis needed to win the game.

Active Lurker< Scummy acting player. No one has to follow me, but I propose we lynch the probable agnostic scum this game and then see the following: if nikita picks up his prod, to see what he has to say for himself, if he continues with his active lurking play, he'll make an excellent Day 3 lynch candidate. If not, then we can talk to his replacement.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP; Forgot this:

unvote

;

Vote: Awesome Poe

[Ghostlin]

A few things: The Haylen L-1 argument is bad, and here's why: unless you believe she's psychic, she couldn't have known that WIR would of self hammered at L-1, even if she is scum. At that point, you only have to tell the rest of town not to hammer, and get information. This was the second sizable wagon on WIR that day; WIR had alerted some townies (and at least one scum, probably) to his play long before the L-1 by Haylen. To contrast, the L-1 I did eariler by accident that day wasn't suitable. It was really one of the first wagons, and at that point was a good opportunity to have a quickhammer happen, denying town more information. In fact, the WIR quick selfhammer did this anyway, and now we know he isn't scum, but I think it justifies the votes we placed on him.

Making the argument, or implying the argument is WIFOM. While WIFOM isn't scummy in and of itself, scum have a tendency to set up arguments like this more than town does, so it doesn't really give AP town cred. The L-1 is a null tell for Haylen, although again, I wish she was around more.

About Stefan:

He's probably still the most town in my eyes: I can't see his votes for anything except pressure, and it got nikita out of hiding before replacement at the end of Day 1. He's figured out that voting is the most important thing here, NOT just discussion. I think the overvote might be an experience issue or a gameplay one. He's either very protown or the slickest scum I've read so far, and I'm inclined to the first.

Hurristat:

You're fencesitting. You mentioned to Deer he's not on your scumlist. Who IS on your scumlist?

AP:

Wow, that's a bad argument in 202. Are you seriously guessing that Haylen would know WIR would self-hammer, since it's not a common move for town at all (you're seen as being a VI for doing it) with her L-1 vote? She mentioned a strawman argument and crap logic, which is good indications of scumplay. Do you have evidence this is a fallical argument OR any other supplemental argument besides 'Haylen voted the L-1 vote'?

All:

Sorry for not being around yesterday, internet problems.

[Ghostlin]

189: Ghost, why exactly are you voting for AP at this point?

Sorry for my absence, but let me distill the case down for you: AP voted for WIR early Day 1. When town moved its votes, he never really did and then we came back to WIR: this would be forgivable except AP didn't really contribute Day 1 at all (and I did suspect him at this point; a little). We lynch WIR through the quick hammer of himself, we're at Day 2: I post an argument for nikitanit that involves lurking and not placing ANY vote on Day 1 for stalling. AP votes nikitanit, with myself and Haylen. AP then votes the voting chart, asks a question of Stefan B who had been one of the most town with his over excess of votes, doesn't vote him, and then releases pressure from nikitanit by cancelling his vote. He's been inconsistent and hard to nail down, and I'm getting a very wishy washy 'meh' vibe.

[Ghostlin]

In addition to 253: I also didn't like the other faux case he put on Haylen: he seemed to think L-1 was signfanct, which almost read to me that he suspected Haylen's partner to hammer, which would indicate he had more information and that doesn't quite track; or she anticipated someone hammering right away, which also doesn't track, no one wanted to move the game state forward, we all seemed angry at WIR when he self hammered and did it.

Also, AP: Why are you fishing for reactions on WIR's selfhammer? I thought he was probably scum trying to end the conversation of town when he did it, then I was angry to be brought in by an obvious VI.

[Ghostlin]

Zach points out something interesting, with all of the votes for nik/hurristat, why were there more votes towards WIR and AP?

Because at the end I found WIR and AP scummier than the lurkers. (That's the reason for my votes in the end)

Nocmen thanks for the bigpost. Hope thats enough for the moment as answer.

I think my point was missed, but you illustrate it perfectly. Haylen was trying to claim that she expected the bandwagon to die after her (L-1) vote because people seemed to be finding Nik/hurristat scummier. Clearly, this wasn't the case. Her reasoning for expecting the bandwagon to die is/was flawed.

Yes, I can agree with this only up to a point. The fact is, we put pressure on WIR to claim and defense. We expected him to be active with a defense. No one could of saw, and it is suboptimal pay (in fact, not playing to win condition) for town to self hammer. So you're right that it's a contradiction, but the fact is, we don't know how Day 1 would of ended because WIR did self hammer.

[Ghostlin]

People whose play have changed to adapt to day two:

The change of behavior after day one shows interesting changes day two:

Ghostlin who was the most hands off player day one has changed his non-aggressive status. He is more determined about his voting strategy to the point that he has the next few days already planned for. Being the most town I half excepted him to be killed during the night. Either he protected himself or the doctor protected him, because I am not convinced that the mafia no killed. This may explain his more aggressive play needing a plan against the mafia.

Why are you interested in who the doctor is?.

This. It almost seems like AP is looking for the doctor, either to claim as one or to try to find him to lynch him, and trying to look like he's not doing it. Now, I did find hurristat at the beginning of Day 2 going 'oh my god, no kill means mafia either no killed or we got a doc who just got lucky' to be scummy and role fishing as well. Fact is, I would be happy with either a hurristat or AP lynch.

[Ghostlin]

I will count my blessings and continue working towards the town winning condition.

How is this any less doc-fishing than what I said?

It's not. That's why there are four votes on him. I still suspect you, because we had to practically drag you out into the light to get you to post, but AP's more

actively

suspicious.

Mod Edit: Quote tag fixed.

[Ghostlin]

Mod, can I can get an active fix for that?

[Ghostlin]

Which means we'll probably get another replacement via Glados soon; I'm not going to vote because while it's pretty bad, flaking is flaking.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: That should read not going to vote Deer.

[Ghostlin]

I'll say one thing about the doc issue. I'm from the future. I can here in a time machine that the Doc invented. Now I need his help to get back to the year 1985.

Interesting joke. Particularly since it could easily be taken the wrong way as being flippant. Neat reference, tho'.

Now, let me ask you this: are you willing to claim now?

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP:

No one hammer until I get my answer unless you want to jump the list of suspect to #1 scum. I mean it.

[Ghostlin]

Sorry Haylen, just concentraiting on the Zachrulezpart (I leave the Chkflippart out, where you have an argument, but one that isn't as strong.)
If I interprette you right. Your point on Zach is:
1. He know Scum-Haylen.
2. He attacks you, but should know you are not scum.
3. He would like to kill you as scum.
4. So he is attacking you so he is likly to be scum.

So basicly you voted him because he attacked you, but should know better, right? So if you leave out Meta (sorry that's somethink that I can't comment about, since Nocmen considers himself still a newbie, that would be a question for Zach and yourself, sorry you are both not neutral enough to get an answer)
So basicly you are voting him, because he attacked you with a little metathink (and a reason for Chkflip)
Sorry but the Zachpart of your argument is close to OMGOS at last the parts I can understand. (Sorry complicated Meta and this is complicated is nothink you can really exspect people who haven't played a lot on this site to completly understand)

Your stand on Poe is interesting. I don't want him hammered before he clams, but can you give us a bit more, why you think he is probably town? I'm very convinced that he is scum, but a lot of the thinks he did you make no sense as town. Yet you read him as town. You are our IC (have a lot of experience) can you help us to understand you PoV?

Ghostlin:

I want the claim. His joke would have been cool if it were the beginning, as the only defence, it's bad.

Pretty much your first two paragraphs are horrible WIFOM. Granted it's WIFOM that Haylen herself created: ("well, Zach knows me, so he should know what my scum play is like, so he should be able to cite what scum Haylen is like, but since he can't cite meta proving I'm scummy, I'm not scummy, hence his argument is wrong and he's scummy.") but it's WIFOM nonetheless, not OMGUS. She's not actually saying his play is bad, she's saying he's kind of setting up a fake argument against her. However, even he's not convinced. Why? He didn't vote for her, so this at this point is somewhat academic.

So, Haylen, let me ask you a few relevant questions:

1) Are you convinced that the meta argument really holds water? Maybe you changed your meta just a touch between the last games you played with him, or he's forgotten what the meta was. How relevant do you consider meta to be in this game?

2) Why do you think AP is town?

3) If it was 24 hours before deadline, who would you lynch: AP or hurristat AND -why-?

[Ghostlin]

For the good of town, I am going to eat crow and choose to trust AP at this time. I also want to make sure to apply pressure to our other suspect, and I want to get enough votes to get him to claim as well. He's been lurking, also been kind of fishing and I still do not trust him. I'm going to have a full case for you later tomorrow. I am willing to risk my own town cred on the fact AP is town. I think he's been using a gambit to suss out who might care about the doctor most.

Unvote.

Vote: Hurristat

[Ghostlin]

Warning Hurristat is at L-1.

He is mostly VLA until the 6th.

L-2; AP removed his vote.

[Ghostlin]

Warning Hurristat is at L-1.

He is mostly VLA until the 6th.

Nocmen: Sorry, just took the:

4. Well I've played a few games, but I'd probably still call myself a complete newbie.

you posted in 235 perhaps a bit to serious. So SEs are Nocmen, Zach, Deer (and however replaces him) and Ghostlin (you became it while playing I think) right?

The OMGOS-part: Sorry I misunderstood. I thought OMGOS is voting for someone that is voting you, for the reason that he is voting you. Basicly Haylen's argument is that whith meta as reason for it. But okay it is acedemic.

Sorry I don't know how much time I have this weekend, somethink happened that is bad (not really somethink completly horrible, but it will need more work)

Still not an SE yet. Once 1046 is done, I'll be an SE because that'll be my second game that I've been in that's been completed, I'm in four right now, three of them theme games.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: 1042, not 1046, which is this game.

[Ghostlin]

Btw, just for info guys. It's really poor form to lynch somebody whilst they're V/LA, it's one of those few things that make me yell in a game.

L-2 is still quite far from a lynch with 8 left alive. Accidentally hammering AP was more of a concern, and I wanted to keep the pressure on.

You mean Ghostlin's hurristat vote?

What bothers me about it is that he unvoted right after Poe's claim and is trying to run up Hurristat to a claim as well. All this does is narrow down power roles for scum.

Any claim does this; particularly close to hammer. I don't mind having two suspects on the broiler at once; particularly if someone makes a claim that leads to a fatal counterclaim. Someone once told me it's always better to catch scum then it is to catch town. What AP didn't say was much more interesting then what he did.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: Yes, I believe there is at least one Town powerrole out there. That's all I have to say on the subject.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP 2: Just a curious off top thing: does anyone but me notice Zach's got a vote on AP, but is trying to, at the same time, arouse suspicion on both me and Haylen without as much as an FoS?

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP. Edit in bold.

EBWOP 2: Just a curious off top thing: does anyone but me notice Zach's got a vote on AP, but is trying to, at the same time, arouse suspicion on both me and Haylen without as much as an FoS?

I have not used the FOS since 2009. It's based on the ridiculous notion of formalizing suspicion that has already been stated. You'll find a few other players on this site who do not ever use it either.

Regardless I always get weary whenever someone seems to be fishing for roles but doesn't seem

to

have a top suspect. You had previously stated that you found AwesomePoe more actively suspicious and the only thing that has changed between then and now is that he is now claimed vanilla. This is not a valid reason to unvote someone after you've found them suspicious enough to run up to a claim.

It amounts to a very blatant form of rolefishing. The point of this game is to lynch scum, not find power roles.

Apparently you and I didn't read the same post, because he didn't claim vanilla at all. He claimed

Town

. I could quote it for you:

I claim Town, and when I flip Town you will be sure.

I chose not to keep my vote as a prod to preserve a possible power role that you're going on about. He could be claiming VT there, he could be scum claiming anything; but the fact that he refused to give away his claim part and parcel interested me.

I'm fine with you not FoSing, but for crying out loud, at least take a stand and give us your scum suspects and reasons why instead of placing a million barbs at other people's play.

[Ghostlin]

Welcome Nobody Special (Kind of hope that we get Somebody Special )

Ghostlin: The townclaim hm. Sorry but puh, I think a full claim would be better here.
Good luck whit your case on Hurristat.

Okay game makes my head hurt in the moment.

Acutally, I'm working on something else, or looking at someone else at the moment, but I thank you for the wishes.

[Ghostlin]

Welcome to the game, Nobody Special.

Ghost, what do you mean by post 333? You're planning a case on someone, that's not Zach or Hurristat? Or am I just reading that post and Stefan's wrong.

I'm not making an additional case on hurristat right now, I am looking at a PBP of Zach, there are a few things that are concerning about his play.

[Ghostlin]

PBP ISO of Zachrulez:

ISO 0-1: Posts who's scum, and goes 'it's easier to just ask.': Seems to be a way to flake out of an opinion.
ISO 2: Twitches at hurristat's doctor fishing comment.
ISO 3: Goes after Haylen. It's not a bad argument, although Haylen does address it later. No vote, tho'.
ISO 4: Probably in response to Hurristat; naked doctor fishing.
ISO 5: Rides Haylen again. Still no vote. If you find the L-1 scummy, then vote her.
ISO 6: Against AP; probably the closest thing to a case we have against him from Zach.
ISO 7: fluff
ISO 8: Promises to hold Haylen to her posts tomorrow. This is just shy of voting her.
ISO 9: Responds to Nocmen re: Haylen (apparently he was misquoted)

ISO 10: Ironically, if you were to count the amount of times he rides Haylen versus AP, you'd think he'd be voting Haylen.
Also mentions he likes a hurri lynch here, but only has gone after him twice. Count of posts building to a Haylen vote: 3,
a Hurristat vote: 2, if you count him going after hurristat with the misquote, and only 1 against AP.

ISO 11: "Who do you think is the most likely scum on the WIR wagon?" The WIR wagon only consisted of four people:
(AwesomePoe, Ghostlin, StefanB, Haylen). This could be a gateway to accuse any of these people. In addition, the question is
never really brought to a head again, which makes you think about it. (Yes, the fifth vote is missing. Unfortunately, we
already know WIR isn't scum.) It's also interesting, because there's a not bad chance that no one is scum on the WIR wagon,
it's less than 1/2 town, and not even a lynch majority. The question also makes us analyze that wagon and no other. Since
chkflip wasn't on the WIR wagon, it deflects attention from his spot.

ISO 12: Good argument against AP; however, I found this interesting:
"Comparing indistinguishable lurkers and trying to give them different reads..." Is doctor speculation the only reason you like
hurri-scum over nikita-scum? If so, why isn't nikita-scum higher on your radar? You don't mention Nikita or his replacement
at all in any of your reads or question him. Why?

ISO 13: He's doing OK until the second paragraph, which really concerns me. This seems to be a shell of an argument not to
analyze what they did do in Day 1, as in it doesn't matter. This worries me, because chkflip made only one substantial post
Day 1 (about) and then disappeared.

ISO 14: This would be more credible if Zach didn't seem to do the same thing. A lot of his tactics cast a wide net. He says he
likes the wagons of the top two scum picks of Day 1; but forms the skeleton for a Haylen case as well.

ISO 16: This almost contradicts ISO 11 indirectly. I say almost because he uses the word vote counts, and he did bandwagon
analysis (which has the same effect that I pointed out with AP's vote counts; it allows for a large net, form cases that some
one could go back to later, and seemingly clear his slot).

Also, he's kinda going after Haylen again here (or at least her reasoning).

ISO 17: It wasn't scummy or town, but a null for the vote counts. This also somewhat contradicts ISO 12, if you think about it,
becaue he says that trying to give lurkers different reads was scummy, when indeed the biggest piece of analysis came from the
vote count graph.

ISO 19: Except you've questioned her about different specific things about her playstyle with suspicion 4 or 5 times now Zach.
Your reads mirror what town already have. You refused to make a case on AP at first, and then your primary point is on the
doctor speculation. I still don't get why AP>Hurristat in your opinion.

ISO 20: Mentions my vote. Doesn't do anything about it, and I myself said I was blowing a wad of towncred doing it.

ISO 21: Claims AP claimed Vanilla; accuses me of PR fishing. This seems like a delibrate misrep of what AP acutally said; and looks
like a way to lampshade a case on me. Mentions he doesn't like FoS because it's a formalizing of suspicions that should be in the thread.
ISO 22 is just a edit of ISO 21.

Here's my analysis, in a nutshell of the game sitaution:

AP didn't claim a specific role in his last post. There are a variety of reasons why he might do this. I'm not going to get into
all of them, you're all intelligent people, you can figure it out all the possibilites. When I say I believe AP, I actually don't.
I believe in the following:
1) Town has at least one powerrole. No, I'm not looking for it. I don't care. The fact we might have folks doing some of the work to stymie the scum is acutally enough.
2) There are two, perhaps three different good suspects town has right now for scum.
3) AP has dug himself a trap if he's not a powerrole: he's only got so much a chance to choose one that someone else doesn't have when massclaim rolls around.
4) The next few reveals will help confirm the setup if we've got any chance of hitting non-townie folk.

Personally, I think AP, if scum has made an awesome mistake, if town could be a useful ally. I don't want to interrupt the first, and I don't want to slit our wrists on the second.

I don't like Zach's play that much to be honest. The fact that chkflip had been pretty much lurking and posted not much real stuff concerns me.

I will be doing a similar analysis for hurristat, but I will

FoS: Zach

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP:

When I say I believe AP, I actually don't.

This is a bit of hyperbole. I'm not lying to town when I typed this, but what I mean is I don't believe with 100% that AP is town. The only one I can really believe is town is the man I see in the mirror when I shave.

[Ghostlin]

You can make anyone look scummy with a PBPA.

We should be lynching AwesomePoe, running someone else up at this point is suboptimal.

And yes Ghostlin, you're looking suspect now because you just seem interested in getting someone to claim power. As far as I can tell that's still the only reason you've unvoted AwesomePoe, (I don't care for the wordplay, I see the timing coming immediately after the claim.) and you suddenly find me suspicious now for questioning your play. (If you want to attack someone who's questioning your play, a PBPA is a great way to do that.)

And Poe did claim vanilla. Town is interchangeable with townie which is interchangeable with Vanilla townie.

So your defense is that you can make anyone look scummy with a post-by-post analysis? Not only is that not a defense, the defense makes you look more scummy along with suspecting half of town. Saying things like 'well, I don't use FoS's because I'd rather have abject suspicion, vote analysis is a null tell, and you can tell anyone's scummy with a PBPA' (all of which have been said by you) are pretty much hidden ways to dissuade anything in depth scum hunting. Because two of the ways the process is done, you don't like, and the third is a null tell.

You've been blase about scum hunting from the word go; asking us who we think is scum, you've lamp shaded four different cases while voting for the most popular wagon, and you've actively tried to undermine whatever processes we have tried to use to scumhunt in this town. While I think Haylen doesn't have the strongest of cases, I think she may in fact, be on the right track.

unvote

Vote: Zachrulez

[Ghostlin]

GLaDOS

: Not that I like it, but Ghostlin is voting Zachrulez at the moment. Joined before AwesomePoe.

Let me be blunt here for a minute: we need to lynch

today

(meaning in the gamestate). The folks I like for lynch, in no particular order (except maybe alphabetical) are AP, hurristat, Zach. (Yes, I realize that's three possibles and two scums) I'm not voting for StefanB unless he outright claims scum.

AP and hurristat are guilty of doc fishing and in hurri's case, lurking most of D1. AP has done some misrepresentation of people's votes (trying to identify lurkers where there was none). AP has claimed Town; but not VT. I found that curious. The rest of town did not. We've not gotten an idea of what hurri has by way of claims. The only thing more I can lay at AP's feet is what I'll call him picking at it. Oh, and the vote analysis which clears him.

Zach is an interesting case: he's continued to pick at Haylen even though he's not really convinced she's scum (at least via vote); his approach to the game at first is to ask us all that who's scum, and his exact suspicions match that: he came out of the gate suspecting hurri and AP, voted AP; he put pressure on Haylen that never really went anywhere (this could be a precursor to a Haylen lynch), claimed the case on AP was due to the doctor fishing (which is a touch hypocritical, hurri did it first, and Zach hasn't voted him or really prompted him for more info). ISO 11 is almost exactly the same tactic as the voting pattern analysis AP did: while there is a old chestnut that scum can always be found on a D1 lynch wagon; looking at only those players does two things:

1) Creates WIFOM
2) Seemingly clears Zach (chkflip was not on the WIR wagon).

Plus, chkflip was active lurking to begin with until he dissapeared. He only posted at the end of Day 1. Yes, Zach's been active; but it is worth reiterating.

The two direct things I dislike most about Zach's play is aggressiveness when AP asked directly for a case (Zach's more than capable of building one) and his almost indirect first dismissal of my PBDP 'You can make anyone look scummy with these.')

I'd rather lynch scum today than anyone else, but any lynch will give us information.

[Ghostlin]

No lynching would suck here, and most of what's been said about AP is still in fact, true. We're not going to play that game. I don't think the Zach or hurristat wagons will take off, town is more invested in the AP wagon.

Unvote

Vote: AwesomePoe

(Back to L-1)

[Ghostlin]

hurristat [is] guilty of doc fishing and in hurri's case, lurking most of D1.

I won't refute either of those claims, but let me point out: I have done neither since, and both were miscues due to my acclimation to this style of mafia.

We've not gotten an idea of what hurri has by way of claims.

I wasn't at L-1, I saw no reason to claim (it'd only help the mafia at that point)

I know, I was just saying that particular opportunity, fair or not, was sorta ruined by the singularity of town's belief that AP is scum.

[Ghostlin]

I'm starting to become slightly suspicious of Zach. AP, Ghost, and then AP have been his votes. I do see his vote on Ghost for being an attempt with Ghost's point 4, but the vote definitely seems like OMGUS to me, while voting for someone that people have all suspected. However, his actual posts besides votes seem pro-town, which is why I'm torn with him, he has pro-town posts, but scummy votes, and replaced a lurker.

Definitely need to hear from Nobody Special, and I want to see Ghost's PBP he was going to do on hurri as well.

I had forgotten all about it. It is incoming, and will be up no later than tomorrow for your reading pleasure.

[Ghostlin]

ISO 0: RVS fluff.
ISO 1: Statement of the obvious. Maybe trying to affirm the vote on WIR
ISO 2: No information, really, says will catch up.
ISO 3: Reads. These did wait two days. Some of these are insightful: tunnel vision for AP for example. Some of these
are extreme IIoA; though, like his read on me. I could go on and on, and on, but nothing bites me.
ISO 4: "Oh, crap, I just posted a text wall and didn't vote anyone?"
ISO 5: EBWOP
ISO 6: Lurking is bad, and Stefan B is townish for making the lurkers talk. Oh, and Italian.
ISO 7: Defense of Haylen. FoS of WIR. Rebuttal of AP's 'you suck' rebuttal.
ISO 8: His reads of Town. IIoA mostly because he doesn't really cite it. Is going with the flow here.
ISO 9: misunderstanding of the word 'lynch'

--End of Day 1, beginning of Day 2--

ISO 10: The infamous Doc post.
ISO 11: Where WIR played. Which is imporant due to ISO 9, but fluffy.
ISO 12: Fluff, except where he thanks the doctor. I'm sure the doctor, wherever he is, would say 'you're welcome.'
ISO 13: Nikita prod. Acutally, I'll say he's being somewhat useful here.
ISO 14: Rebuttal/defense to AP's vote count
ISO 15: Agreed with something AP said. Picked up a prod....I guess. Analysis to follow.
ISO 16: Defends SB's voting pattern. Not sure what to make of it (I'm not sure consistency here, it reads like he favors AP.
ISO 17: "SB, I'm staying out of your fight! I'll just not vote, even though I've made 7 Day 2 posts!" +lurking explanation. D
Dude, it's not the lurking, it's the active lurking that's killing you.
ISO 18: "Yeah, I know I'm wishy washy." Discounts his own vote and that of Deer here. Regardless of alignment, he's putting
away his weapon, which is never a good thing.
ISO 19: "No, SB, I'm not getting between you and AP." I forced a list out of him at this point which had AP at the top, however.
SB has more towncred, but he doesn't dislike that lynch it seems.
ISO 20: Informs us of upcoming VLA

ISO 21: Modified town list, minus replacements; the funny thing is the value of your vote rhetoric is something I agree with
and will have to reread, because that would give AP town points from me. Not huge ones, but town points. Accuses Stefan's
case to be OMGUS-y. Asks Deer for his case. Votes AP!
ISO 22: Confrontational is usually town(ish).
ISO 23: Welcomes Zach and Nocmen. Fluff.
ISO 24: Inexperience defense for Doc post.
ISO 25: EBWOP
ISO 26: Second line is interesting "Vote for me if you think I'm scummer, but I don't know if you want anyone at L-1 yet."
That's WIFOM. A lot of inexperence defense,
ISO 27: Well, I didn't see an AtE either. Didn't understand something posed to him. Explains that that IRC games are different
In his defense, they probably are.
ISO 28: He's got a point here, but Hurri: reactions are vital. Never fail to gauge a reaction in this game.
ISO 29: Reads...very twisted. "I am scumhunting, but why would I change my play if I wasn't scumhunting to scumhunting on your
say so?" Seriously, that's how the logic he employs reads.
ISO 30: Hurri didn't like WIR's hammer and didn't think he was playing to Wincon. Uses the word rude, which is rather tempered.
I think I said I was angry. Pissed off is acutally more like it.

ISO 31: Not an AtE, wouldn't hammer self as town, and got clarification.
ISO 32: Another VLA reminder.
ISO 33: I'm not sure SB trusting Haylen's word over hurri's is necessarly a bad thing (over the AtE bit), considering I think
SB thinks Haylen's got more towncred. Hurri; I don't know if you know this, polygon dude, but you come off as really passive.
It took you 11 posts to come up with a vote for Day 2. And two lists. Agree "with it's not long enough." being a bad defense.
AP Vote analysis=null read.
ISO 34: Well, it's nice to know Hurri can get angry. Now, I wish it was something that wasn't the fact the quotes didn't work.
ISO 35: OK. Yeah, I get the SB tunneling on AP. We apparently understand each other. Asks AP to defend himself. Asks Haylen
about activity. Likes Zach and Nocmen.
ISO 36: On VLA.
ISO 37: To answer this post; I thought AP was hinting at a possible PR. I try to avoid lynching them if possible. I think
I mention this later, but I'll cover it now. Doesn't mind the rash vote to put him at L-2. Yup, Zach and I enjoy tunnelling.
ISO 38: Yay, more posts than Haylen/AP! Now let's work on content!
ISO 39: I'll explain that to you. Stefan's pissed at me.
ISO 40: Reexplains about not claiming (I know why you didn't, I just said it was a blooming shame you didn't get to.)


Analysis: A lot of posts. Not sure if they really say much, tho'. While I can rail Zach for not forming opinions (or rather
parrotting town), it could be said it's a while to prod hurri into voting (11 posts). I don't trust anyone who doesn't have
strong opinions in this game, mostly because it's a good way for scum to hide. I still don't like the doctor post, and the
inexperience with MS doesn't clear him at all.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: I forgot to title that. That's the hurristat PBP. Once again, you get my commentary.

[Ghostlin]

Ghostlin: so, aside from the infamous doc fishing post, why do you think I'm scum?

Actually, that's not the most scummy; the most scummy thing I see is the fact all of Day 1 and most of the beginning of Day 2, you've seem reluctant to scum hunt, and have been sort of wishy washy in some of your posts. It took you 11 posts from beginning of Day 2 to vote AP; even though you had no less than three lists that said you found him to be the most scummy. You have 41 posts, which means your activity is great, but when you look at what you're actually using them for; it causes active lurking concerns.

[Ghostlin]

Noc: I think he wants an AP lynch.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: Never mind, I shouldn't speak for SB.

[Ghostlin]

A couple of things:

1) It's good that we have another couple extra days to work with
2) What does PBP stand for?

Ghostlin: If you're so adamant (that might not be the right word here, but whatever) that AP is not mafia, then why did you switch to AP and not me?

PBP=Post by post. It meant I gave you analysis of all of your posts on ISO, or isolation, by themselves.

Hurri, to be honest, I like your lynch over AP's today, however, it doesn't really matter because I voted AP back to L-1 before the deadline extension, and a lynch, any lynch would give us information versus a no lynch today. AP is the lynch that's going to fly, and the fact is, anything that's been said about AP still hasn't magically been erased today. I only have a hunch, a suspicion that AP is innocent of anything. At a point, town needs to lynch someone, and we can't seem to get the all important votes for either a Zach or you lynch, and I'm not confident that I'm persuavive enough to make something like that materalize before deadline.

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: tl;dr: Town must lynch today, there's a good chance that AP could still be scum and Ghostlin's gut is not good enough to make lynch policy decisions on, and while certain members of town aren't convinced, there is enough town that is convinced at the moment.

[Ghostlin]

I'm seeing both of the last PBPA's as very IIOA'y (information instead of analysis-y). Neither of them give an opinion on each post which is what a PBPA is supposed to be. What Ghostlin and Stefan just did was look like they were generating lots of content when they actually weren't (i say this more about Ghostlin than about Stefan)

Frankly, Haylen, the hurri one was difficult. There's not a lot of content to be had if you read him in ISO, particularly late Day 1 going into Day 2. Zach gave me more to work with. (Now compare the post numbers, and find out why have a problem with it.) My biggest complaint about hurri is that he's playing it very safe in some respects: it took him 11 posts Day 2 to have a concrete opinion on who was scum, and when he did, it didn't deviate much from what town already had.

[Ghostlin]

You know who'd I'd really like to hear from?

I'd like to hear from NS. Seriously.

[Ghostlin]

Zach you setting the seeds for a case against StefanB, and I’m not going to help you. If I flip town, you are going to use this against StefanB. If I am town then SB pushing the lynch on me, makes him scummy right? No, it doesn’t.

No, I'm wondering why you seem to not have any doubt about his alignment. (Scum knows what everyone's alignment is.)

You seem to be addressing him as if you

know he is town.

Let me ask you a question for a second: if he's scum knowing he's about to hang, why would he do anything more scummy? What's his motivation for addressing Stefan B as town?

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: Outside of an ATE; I don't see a reason.

[Ghostlin]

I would also like to hear more from NS, even if it's only an "I am at page ..." post.

Haylen: I didn't try to make new content. I just wanted to give an overview on AwesomePoes play, what has he done what are the most important thinks on his play, what is the case against him...
I thought since he is one of the lynchkandidates my post could help people who are not sure or are NS to see what was important of his play.
AwesomePoe vanishing is nothing new.
Also:

THE NICE NEW ACTIVITY OVERVIEW SAYS HE DOES!!!

Were is that from?

That's fine, you're a newbie, I'm not going to attack you for not being able to make a perfect PBPA. I could see what you were attempting to do, it was more Ghostlin I was commenting on.

Goo to the bottom of the page, you see the links to different page numbers, under that there should be link saying 'Activity Overview', Me and Zach can definately see it (they're on every page) but I'm not sure if anyone without modding permissions can. :/

I can see it too.

[Ghostlin]

If I flip scum, then I would know he was town. You are again spreading scum reads, this time based solely on my posts. But that only works if I have more information than other town. If I have more info my votes would reflect a scummy vote pattern. Before today's lynch you can make all kinds of inferences based on my posts, and build the framework for cases after the lynch. But that only works if I flip scum.

This is horrible WIFOM. Each time I think you might be what I think you are, you do this. *sighs*

[Ghostlin]

Also WIFOM.

So's yours. If he has no reason to reasonably suspect thus far that SB is anything but town, and he's the previous post, and he says 'I think you're making a horrible mistake' to someone he thinks is town and no one, even you, have really built a scum case on him; how else would he address him? (Also, SB made the post before his, so your argument doesn't make much space.)

The AP case needs no seasoning. We all know what the case is. He will be lynched today at deadline per Haylen. Why are you trying so hard?

[Ghostlin]

EBWOP: space=sense

[Ghostlin]

Also WIFOM.

So's yours. If he has no reason to reasonably suspect thus far that SB is anything but town, and he's the previous post, and he says 'I think you're making a horrible mistake' to someone he thinks is town and no one, even you, have really built a scum case on him; how else would he address him? (Also, SB made the post before his, so your argument doesn't make much space.)

That was in response to you asking what reason he would have to do that. I added WIFOM as a reason for doing it. As in to create WIFOM for future day phases.

The AP case needs no seasoning. We all know what the case is. He will be lynched today at deadline per Haylen. Why are you trying so hard?

So I shouldn't continue to re-read and analyze moving forward? This implies that I should be content with his lynch and that continuing to scumhunt even now is a bad thing.

Acutally, it's not contentment I'm wondering about; it's how convinced you think AP is scum. Except for one single vote on me when I removed my vote from AP, you've been chasing and tunnelling this lynch HARD. And even then, part of the reason you voted me was the seeming hypocracy of me removing my vote from AP.

Fact is, in your 'reanalysis' of the thread, you're beginning to use crap logic. That's my concern: if AP has no reason to suspect SB as scum, and none of us have really had placed a case on him, he's played the cleanest game. AP believes that SB is town, he's said it in thread. You could of logically pointed out that 'you're making a mistake' is an blantant AtE, but you get him on 'he's addressing him as town, that makes him scummy!' When none of us, even you have gone 'this is a case why SB is scum.'

In fact, your counter is that it may be exactly what he wants, he may be a scum looking for a mislynch; which proves AP's point;

that could be lampshading the ghost of a case on SB.

Also, this also is really bad reasoning, because if I knew my scumbuddy was on a wagon a scum, why wouldn't I address them as town to create more WIFOM, to create a seemingly 'cleared' townie?

Yes, this is all conditional, but it's almost like you're trying to cover your bases regardless of what AP flips.

[Ghostlin]

Poe if you actually are town, you should post a full suspicion list.

No

Why not? If you're town about to be hanged, you've got nothing to lose. If you're scum, well, you could always post some bull to throw us off the scent that we'll probably discard later. This doesn't help your case (or lack of one).

[Ghostlin]

And we're in twilight. Depending on how the flip goes, there are certain things I want to impress. First off, even though we spent half the day kind of fighting, I still believe that StefanB is town. I think the people who we will need to examine are: Zach, NS (You didn't post anything of insight all day, not cool) and hurristat.

[Ghostlin]

Day Two Vote Count #8

4 AwesomePoe (StefanB, hurristat, Zachrulez, Ghostlin)
2 Zachrulez (Haylen, AwesomePoe)
1 hurristat (Nocmen)

With

8

alive it takes

5

to lynch. Deadline is

February 13

at 8:30 PM CST.

Not Voting – 1 – Nobody Special

Mod Note

: I am extending the deadline by

two days

and no more. I may have been willing to move it to Monday (or later) had Nobody Special alerted me of his V/LA (the first I heard of it was when he

returned

from V/LA), and the deadline will not be moved again absent extraordinarily unlikely circumstances.

We did. Dammit.

[Ghostlin]

And yes everone can see the active overview, I just asked Haylen because I didn't see it at first. (To my defence it's small and easy to overlook)

I didn't know what it was until I clicked on it.

[Ghostlin]

*Takes a bow* Go town!

[Ghostlin]

I can post the scum QT if Zach's okay with it.

We thought Ghsot was the doc because N1 the kill was made on Stefan. Ghost had a very high town read of him, as opposed to hurri and or Haylen who had doubts about him. Didn't sound like someone who would protect him.

We also greatly considered doing a

cop claim

, and I was worried near the end that mistake cost us. I made a

couple possible crumbs

, but I didn't feel I could pull off the fake claim enough.

As for the no lynch, I think that's the proper point in a MyLo situation.

The bolded is why I balked at the AP lynch Day 2: that and his really non specific claim made me think there was a possiblity he might have been softclaiming Cop. That and the Back to the Future reference. I acutally saw the Night 2 Kill coming when I asked myself, 'If I was scum, who would I kill? Fuck, it's me, isn't it?'

Stefan stuck his neck out Day 1, was one of the most vocal players of town. I figured he'd be the best protect target.

Day 2 I protected Haylen mostly because I figured if I was right about Zach, the scumteam might kill her as an alternate to me.