Mini 1105: A Mafia Invasion! (Game Over)

[GreyICE]

Unvote

Vote: locke

Fuck it I don't like the tasky wagon because of... Yeah. That

Rob is town today, so... Locke...

[GreyICE]

<-.is sheeping
<- wanted one more to see it.
< - baaaaaaaaa

[Locke Lamora]

Llama: I really didn't find Zdenek as scummy as some people were making out, and Dizzle obviously barely said anything, plus some of the people on the Zdenek wagon seemed to me to have dubious voting stances, which made me doubt the authenticity of the wagon (Rob and Tasky being two main examples). Zdenek's attack on you I thought was misplaced, but I didn't read it as being inherently scum-driven, I just thought he'd tried to apply a tell (that scum copy the stances of other scum) and had failed to read his evidence through properly before he made the case. Sure, I could have come in and pointed out how scummy Zdenek was, but everyone was already doing that and I didn't see how it would be particularly productive for the town for me to repeat it.

[LlamaGod]

Wall of text ahoy!

WeirdWeirdWeirdWeird. I was thinking Dizzle changed his setting in response to RW's post but Rob points out Dizzle's status is hidden half an hour after RW says he caught Dizzle Lurking. Can anybody explain to me a situation where this makes sense??? I hope those players show up postgame to explain what happened there.

I still feel pretty good about this LL lynch though. Both VV and his replacement were not for a Zdeneklynch and took measures to avoid it D2. The one thing that makes me worry about a VV/LL lynch is the Dizzle almost-vote yesterday. But it never became an actual vote, and may have been a matter of a late bus similar to the hammer on Jerbs.

Looks like this game exploded since I last posted. It looks like we now have 3 wagons going on.

I still like the RossWilliam wagon. I gave reasons for this before and they still apply. Unfortunately, that wagon seems to have mostly died out.

I'm not really a fan of the Mute wagon here. I've been getting the feeling that his suspicions are genuine, even if it's just a gut feeling. I also find it interesting that the Mute wagon built up quickly twice. It kind of looks like a default wagon that people are jumping to when they have nowhere better to go and that bothers me a bit. If Mute is actually town, it wouldn't surprise me if at least 2 scum are voting him.

This wagon was composed of Agar, Me, RW, Rob, and Pappums. Saying "I think there's two scum in here" about what's probably a scum-free wagon seems like a very convenient move for scum.

Since it seems like the RossWilliam wagon isn't going anywhere right now, I'm willing to

unvote, vote: RobCapone

. The fact that he chose to ignore this game even though he posts so frequently is a bit suspicious (though largely alleviated by his explanation) and his post #108 looks kind of bad. I would definitely prefer a RossWilliam lynch though and if other people are willing to switch back to RossWilliam, I will certainly be among those switching .

This is very meh reasoning. The last time I saw "I will vote X but prefer Y" it was from Jerbs. Seems to distance him from a potential roblynch.

@VV

Why would RossWilliam being scum make Tasky town? They just got into a little argument. That has no influence on whether or not they are scum or town

It's mostly because of his post #52. He felt the need to defend Tasky as part of his reason for voting me despite claiming only a weak read. This leads me to believe that RossWilliam is scum using the fact that I voted someone he knows is town as justification for voting me. It would be odd for him to include that as part of his reasoning for his vote if they were both scum.

I'm not sure how I feel about the L-2 and L-1 votes from Dizzle and Mute. I'm not sure Dizzle actually knew he was putting RossWilliam at L-2 (I didn't realize until someone pointed it out) and, to be fair, Mute seemed to crosspost with Guderian pointing this out. Not sure what to make of Dizzle's unvote in post #102 though.

Way to fencesit on Dizzlescum and make excuses for him.

I might need to reread RossWilliam to take a closer look. Things are starting to not add up so well and it might be time for me to reevaluate some of my stances so they do. I also want to take a closer look at pappums rat and Jerbs. Something about them is bothering me right now and I'm not sure what.

VV never says anything about what Jerbs did to bother him. He ends up following up on Pappums later though. He does eventually hammer Jerbs though.

VV, please vote.

I didn't want to detract from pressure on Dizzle before he showed up, but it looks like he's being replaced anyway.

Worried about people seeing a connection between himself and Dizzle

Vote: pappums rat

for reasons mentioned earlier

It's looking at this point that Dizzle's going to be replaced. I'm excited to hear from the replacement because more and more the bandwagon on Dizzle is making me nervous...I don't have a good argument other than gut but I'm just getting a bad feeling about the lynch, because the only reason my vote is on him is because of the lurking, but plenty of town have lurked before. From a selfish point of view, if he flips town for some fluke I'm going to get a LOT of flak at the start of the next day, and I don't want that. I'm not going to unvote yet but if it get's to L-1 and we still haven't heard from Dizzle or the replacement I think I'm going to unvote.

I'm liking Tasky more as scum because he's got himself set up with this reputation like he's not going to contribute and thats totally okay. Now he can glide under the radar just making his comments here and there. We'll see.

I don't remember why I unvoted you, but it had better have been for a good reason.

That reason: His bandwagon wasn't big enough...

VV, what are you thoughts of the four people with mini-actual bandwagons on them? Who of them would you like to see lynched most?

Dizzle: I'm starting to think I was a bit too lazy in allowing myself to suspect Dizzle. His post about Mute was certainly awkward, but his lack of posting (especially if he's now disappeared from the site) really doesn't mean much. I wouldn't be particularly enthusiastic about a Dizzle lynch.

Doesn't want to lynch dizzle

Jerbs: My first thought is that I wouldn't be against this lynch, but I also never looked back to figure out what I didn't like about him. I meant to, but other people looked back first. I would probably be willing to vote him just based on what I've seen though.

Would vote Jerbs sort of.

Rain: Rain is possibly my biggest wild card right now. It felt like a lot of Mute's earlier posting was genuine, but his later posting gave me some reservations. I don't see much of a problem with what Rain's done so far. Not willing to vote him right now. I would probably only vote him as a deadline lynch and largely because his flip would give us a lot to work with.
RossWilliam: I didn't like him early on, then switched votes and wasn't sure. I'm starting to see him as scum again. It's not unlikely for my vote to find its way back to him in the near future.

Much happier one of these two nonscums

UNVOTE: Dizzle

I made up my mind. I don't want to see Dizzle lynched without a defense. There is too big of a chance of the lurking being a townie fluke.

When I first read this, I thought it was scummy. Now that I read it again, I have no idea. >.<

I think I lost my grasp of this game a bit when I went V/LA. If I'm not busy today, I'll try to reread this game, but I won't guarantee it, seeing as I've been a bit lazy with reading this game in general up to this point.

Okay, posting time.

The night kill is mildly interesting in that VP had a bit of suspicion on him. It's less interesting when you consider that VP is a good player and a small amount of suspicion on him would likely not be enough to keep a scum team from wanting to kill him and especially if he was doing something right. His suspicions might be worth looking at, but I'm not sure it's worth it to use them for any more than padding suspicions. This being said, I don't actually remember who he suspected.

Hmm, maybe he was killed partially in hopes townies would look up who his suspicions were on and go after Rob?

I'm really not seeing Zdenek's case on Llama in post #345. I like Rob's case (or PBPA, I guess) on pappums in the next post though.

You like your top scumread's case?? And you don't like Zdenek's case but have no comment on Zdenek's alignment?

Interestingly enough though, I really don't like what I see from Rob in iso towards the end of yesterday. Between his post #321 and post #322, it really looks like he doesn't want the Jerbs wagon to find its way to completion. I also don't like the potential pushing of a day 2 mislynch on VP in post #336, followed by the very nonchalant "oh well, so much for that!" post #334 just 35 minutes into the day. Strikes me a bit as him not being surprised enough, if that makes sense. For the moment, that's actually enough to put him ahead of pappums on my want-to-lynch list.

So basically VV wanted to lynch Rob or Pappums instead of Zdenek. This looks like counterwagonning.

Post #349 actually made me laugh out loud just now. Really nice catch by Tasky.

Vote: RobCapone

Rain's post #358 looks like a jump onto a counter-wagon to try to take attention off of Rob, especially since he seems more concerned with using buzzwords and making his post loud than he does about explaining his vote. I was about to say Rob's immediate switch to Zdenek afterwards made this less likely, but Rain's subsequent switch to Elli just 5 votes later could very well be his way of trying to distance himself from Rob.

FoS Rain

Whee another alternative to Zdenek. Anyone but him pleaseplease!

Town

1.Robcapone

9. Rosswilliam

Please ask me any question you have. Reading now.

I have one....actually, on further reading, I have two more:
1. Why the vote on pappums?
2. What changed that made you vote Rob?

These look like he is trying to galvanize a townie into helping him push a counterwagon? Maybe VVscum wanted to lynch either Rob or Pappums and was keeping his options open.

---

Since it's apparently now the cool thing to do (and as an excuse to give reads on a couple of controversial players), here are my current reads (players within a group are in no particular order (even though I created enough orderings to give a pretty good idea of where people are relative to each other anyway)):

Town

LlamaGod
Tasky
Vigilante Ventriloquist

Leaning Town

Ellibereth
RossWilliam

Very Slighly Town

Empking

Neutral

Zdenek

Continued Dizzle Fencesitting pattern

Very Slightly Scum

pappums rat (eh, Rob's suspicions of him probably bump him to the town side if Rob is scum, but I'd rather leave him on this side of the scale until Rob actually flips)

Lining up lynches much?

Leaning Scum

Rain

Scum

RobCapone

[GreyICE]

Holy shit.

Look who he has Leaning Town. ROSSWILLIAM. I missed that.

Ross was an Agar-confirmed liar until I showed Agar screwed up board settings. A liar as confirmed by confirmed-town. Ellibereth has, against all his instincts and judgment, been trying to kill Ross/Zdenek for pages for exactly that interaction (on the logic that one of the two was scum, which was TRUE). Only reason I think that Ross survived so long was that he just couldn't pull the trigger, well, on tunneling him, because his brain was saying "Ross scum" and his heart was saying "Zdenek... read Drizzle, read Zdenek..." You wanted to kill me for exactly that until I showed it to be a mistake. Every single poster knows:

LYNCH. ALL. LIARS.

What does page 8 look like? Ross-scum pushing an early lynch on Dizzle-flaking-town and when dizzle flips "okay, so he was just a flaker, damn it." I read the interaction that way, and I'm goddamn Ross. With Agar's post and town flip it was nigh-on certain (and I'm surprised Ross is alive).

VV isn't pushing it. Why? As SOON as Ross flips town, Page 8 gets reexamined in an awful whole hurry. Who dies? Zdenek. If he pushes Ross to the limits, Ross gets dayvigged or something, and then Zdenek scum dies. Look how Zdenek treated Ross. Hands off. Hands off someone who accused your predescessor that way? For SCUM? Oh, they were scared of that Ross flip day 2, because of how page 8 would look. Ross was being saved for day 3 where there was enough material to save Zdenek-scum.

I'm rereading with Zdenek as confirmed scum and Pappums as confirmed town, and oh boy they wanted that Ross flip not to happen. I was assuming Pappums was the scum pushing the Ross train, but if it's VV/LL, then there was not a single scum on the wagon of a confirmed liar. Scum paranoia at its best...

ALSO FOLKS REREAD MY FIRST POST AND DON'T VOTE ELLIBERETH! HE DOES THIS AND THERE'S MANY REASONS NOT TO LYNCH HIM WHEN HE'S SCUMHUNTING, AND HE PROVABLY WAS (and this is from the person he was trying to lynch).

[pappums rat]

llama, yes we had daytalk.

i am hereby calling out rain and empking for their lurking. i have seen both of them on today and rain as well yesterday, and at this point there has been plenty to comment on since thier last posts. with us this close to deadline, we need more opinions, dammit. this is no time to lurk.

[Zachrulez]

9th Vote Count of day 2:

Tasky - 2 (Empking, Locke Lamora)
Locke Lamora - 2 (Llamagod, GreyICE)
Pappums rat - 1 (RobCapone)
Robcapone - 1 (Tasky)
Ellibereth - 1 (Rain)
GreyICE - 1 (Ellibereth)

Not Voting: (Pappums rat)

With 9 alive it's 5 to lynch

Day 2 will end no later than Sunday Jan 30th at 5pm CST

[GreyICE]

Locke is the pick over Tasky, read ISOs of both. I WILL hammer one of the two. I will NOT support an Ellibereth wagon at this time.

Also, Zach, Rosswilliam isn't even in the bloody game. That's me Elli is voting for.

[Empking]

pr: Tasky was forced into reluctantly bussing but when he found a way out he ran from Zdenek as fast as his fingers could take him. There's nothing else to add to that.

[Zachrulez]

Also, Zach, Rosswilliam isn't even in the bloody game. That's me Elli is voting for.

Sorry, was an oversight... fixed.

[GreyICE]

pr: Tasky was forced into reluctantly bussing but when he found a way out he ran from Zdenek as fast as his fingers could take him. There's nothing else to add to that.

Yes there is:

Dizzle:

I'm starting to think I was a bit too lazy in allowing myself to suspect Dizzle. His post about Mute was certainly awkward, but his lack of posting (especially if he's now disappeared from the site) really doesn't mean much. I wouldn't be particularly enthusiastic about a Dizzle lynch.

Jerbs:

My first thought is that I wouldn't be against this lynch, but I also never looked back to figure out what I didn't like about him. I meant to, but other people looked back first. I would probably be willing to vote him just based on what I've seen though.

Sadly, what was stopping me from suspecting him the first read turns out to be his scum read on... Pappums Rat. Which means nothing, since Rat is conf. town, and an easy mislynch target.

Day 2, he tunneled Rob for basically silly reasons (a grammar problem, and the fact that he bought the insane 'mafia did the kill' theory, which ANY scum would know was false and would be silly to try and support, because it would be proved false on Jerbs flip).

All Locke has done is tunnel Tasky. ALL LOCKE HAS DONE. IS. TUNNEL. TASKY.

Tasky? ISO #22 really tells me that either that's one of the weirder scum gambits I've seen in a nice long time, or he really did try and hammer his supposed partner.

[Empking]

But Locke actually did hammer his partner so...?

[GreyICE]

But Locke actually did hammer his partner so...?

So, it doesn't read as particularly pro-town to me.

But really, whatever. Lets do this: If Tasky is at L-1, I'll hammer him, I think the arguments against him are perfectly valid, I think Locke is a better lynch.

[Rain]

I'm at school at the moment, so this will be a TL;DR. I will expand on this later tonight.

I have reasons to believe VV/LL is probably not scum.

Initially, Tasky had struck me as town simply because I played a game with hom before and the posting style was similar. I must agree though that a dead townie is better than a bad townie.

Since there's no counter claim, I'm inclined to believe Pappums.

Llama and Rob are obvTown.

Y U NO LYNCH ELLI?

[Locke Lamora]

Reading back, I find Rob looks pretty bad in relation to both Jerbs and Zdenek. His ISO repeatedly features comments like:

Fos dizzle

Ill hold offvoting til mod prods him and he has time to respond

and...

That last post by Jerbs has me scratching my head

FOS: Jerbs

Vote Agar

Both of these display a desire to appear as though he is attacking these slots but they lack the genuine conviction behind them to follow up with a vote or even ask questions of any substance. One of his responses to the cop claim is also wishy-washy to the point of being scummy:

well in the games I have played on this site I think I have seem cop claimed day 1 and once was scum and once was really cop, neither got lynched day 1 but both of them played like they should have been a cop.

typically I am not a fan of lynching a power role day 1, but we already are down a person and it isn't even the end of day 1.

It comes down to do you believe the claim or not and I can't tell that until we hear from him

During this situation, I feel like he's trying to refrain from making a firm decision for as long as possible in the hope that Jerbs is going to dig himself out of trouble by fleshing out his claim. To add to these, neither Jerbs nor Dizzle/Zdenek makes any kind of attack on Rob that would make me think he isn't scum; in fact, Jerbs' lame FOS on Rob when he tries to encourage him to post just reinforces my read.

Unvote; Vote: RobCapone

With Tasky, it's more the case that there is so little to analyse and so few links to be drawn. He votes for Jerbs early enough that it's hard to tell much about his alignment from it. His Zdenek vote is backed up about as much as the rest of his votes and after Zdenek has already garnered 3 votes to become the leading wagon, so it's hard to say whether that is a likely bus. I'll expound on my thoughts on the hammer more once Tasky tells us whether it was deliberately fake.

GreyICE: are you serious? I've been in the game for 3 days and made 5 (now 6) posts. How you can construe my contribution as tunneling Tasky is beyond me, but perhaps more to the point, how the hell does it make me the most likely candidate for scum?

[Tasky]

the hammer was deliberately fake.
I hoped to get some reactions.

and rob is scum a lot

[GreyICE]

Y U NO LYNCH ELLI?

READ MY FIRST POST RAIN PLZ THEN TELL ME Y ELLI AGAIN. K? ELLI HAS ALSO BEEN SCUMHUNTING.

[GreyICE]

With Tasky, it's more the case that there is so little to analyse and so few links to be drawn. He votes for Jerbs early enough that it's hard to tell much about his alignment from it. His Zdenek vote is backed up about as much as the rest of his votes and after Zdenek has already garnered 3 votes to become the leading wagon, so it's hard to say whether that is a likely bus. I'll expound on my thoughts on the hammer more once Tasky tells us whether it was deliberately fake.

GreyICE: are you serious? I've been in the game for 3 days and made 5 (now 6) posts. How you can construe my contribution as tunneling Tasky is beyond me, but perhaps more to the point, how the hell does it make me the most likely candidate for scum?

Two things. First, tunneling a semi-lurker is not contributing to the town in any way. It's a good way to look like you're scumhunting while lurking.

Second, Rob has plenty to say about the Jerbs wagon, about Agar, about Drizzle/Zdenek. He mentions other people. You just... tunnel Tasky. It's disturbing. It's not productive. There's an enormous wagon going on and you have nothing to say about it? Okay...

@TASKY: ROLE ASSIGNMENTS ARE RANDOM PLEASE STOP ASSIGNING MEANING TO RANDOMNESS, AND DONT TELL US TO OKAY? PRODUCE COMPARISON OF HIS SCUM PLAY/TOWN PLAY OR SHUT UP. THAT IS SO TERRIBLE. THERE IS A REASON I DON'T MIND HAMMERING YOU, YOUR CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE TOWN ARE PIG FARTS.

SCUMMY

PIG FARTS.

P.S. Mad props for the hammer ploy though Glad that was intentional. Even if you do show a disturbing desire to win by breaking the rules. I'd really have to ask you to play cards with your sleeves rolled up...

[Locke Lamora]

I'd barely even got into the game. I thought we'd gone to night less than 48 hours after I replaced in. Rob and Tasky were the two players who caught (or in Tasky's case, avoided) my attention when I first read through, so I asked them questions. As we're on the topic, perhaps you can tell me exactly where these productive comments Rob made about Drizzle/Zdenek are hiding.

[GreyICE]

I'd barely even got into the game. I thought we'd gone to night less than 48 hours after I replaced in. Rob and Tasky were the two players who caught (or in Tasky's case, avoided) my attention when I first read through, so I asked them questions. As we're on the topic, perhaps you can tell me exactly where these productive comments Rob made about Drizzle/Zdenek are hiding.

And maybe

you

can tell

me

why I shouldn't lynch you?

Why were you tunneling Tasky? 48 hours and you read nothing else? No other reads on this entire thread? Suddenly a wagon is forming and you have nigh-on unlimited time for this place.

I have a limited amount of rope. But I can spare some for you.

[Locke Lamora]

So you can't find Rob's productive posts on that slot either.

First off, I don't comment on everything I think. I certainly don't post idle thoughts on topics where my reads haven't developed much yet. If you don't like the way I approach the game, there's not a lot I can do about that; I play at my own pace and I comment on things that I think are relevant to finding scum. I joined the game and my overwhelming impressions were that everyone wanted to lynch Zdenek, and that I didn't really understand why Tasky and Rob were voting for him. I asked Tasky and Rob some questions to try to establish their position. If it helps you to understand, I've played with Tasky before as town and he was making cases all over the place, not posting one-liners, so his play seems very different. As for my time for the game, it varies depending on the rest of my schedule. Tonight I'm at home and I have some spare time, hence I read back and decided I found Rob was scummier than Tasky in the light of Zdenek's flip.

[GreyICE]

Not interested in finding Rob's productive posts, Locke. I've read this thread, I know what posts are in it. I'm interested in why I shouldn't lynch you. "Because you should lynch Rob instead" is lame. You admit to not having read the thread very well, yet suddenly you know Rob didn't have any productive comments?

I want to hear it, Locke. What is your approach here? What is your thinking on the list VV put together and Llama quoted above you (with Zdenek as the most non-commital thing he could think of for a poster whose play was mediocre at best)?

Why is it better for this town that you end today alive?

[Locke Lamora]

I admit to rereading the thread on a regular basis. If I replace into a game, I like to have a few readthroughs before I feel as though I have a proper handle on it. My point about Rob is simply that I don't think you have as good a grasp on the game as you're making out if you think Rob has had plenty to say about Dizzle & Zdenek. He's actually said very little on the slot.

My thinking on that list VV put together is that he didn't really know what to make of Zdenek. He didn't particularly agree with what he was saying, but he didn't find anything that scummy in his posts either, so he came up with an incredibly wishy-washy stance on him. I can't really say why VV was so non-committal about the slot all the way through the game, but I can only guess that he was having a hard time getting a definitive read. I know I was pretty undecided on Zdenek during the brief time I was in the game with him.

It's better for the town that I end today alive because I'm getting into the game, I've got a decent grip on it now, I'm going to provide my own insights and opinions that will help town find the remaining scum and, quite frankly, there are better candidates for lynch who are more likely to be Jerbs/Zdenek's buddy.

[RobCapone]

That last part screams "keep me alive so I can kill 1 more time"

[GreyICE]

That last part screams "keep me alive so I can kill 1 more time"

I should say "OMGUS" here, but... eh. This feels right to me.

Rob, I will be poking you tomorrow You live, today