Mini 1121: Nexusville Mafia.

[implosion]

/confirm

[implosion]

That's 10.

VOTE: Nameless for refusing to follow the trend in confirms.

[implosion]

Dishing out a couple of RQS questions--

What time zone are you in?

Do you prefer RQS or RVS? Why?

How much mafia experience do you have?

EST. A combination of both, speeds the game up faster. Enough (more off-site than on-site).

[implosion]

VOTE: mb53 for having the lowest number out of any of the players in his name.

Unvote, vote: mongoose

for distancing from q21.

I officially declare RVS over btw.

I'd like to add this question:
About how much posting can we expect from you?

I post every day when I can and have the energy to. I'm often v/la on Saturdays and sometimes Fridays.

Implosion, you seem very interested in getting this game going. You began only 17 minutes after the 10th person confirmed, and jumped right in before the mod officially opened the game. You also made a second post, again only minutes after someone else initiated a post here. Are you normally this prompt with a new game?

Not really, I just happened to be on and noticed that enough people had confirmed.

[implosion]

Also, right now I'm only curious about why Implosion felt the need to establish himself as some type of leader, and why he's so anxious to jump in... this is usually a scum tell, and I implore nobody to just skip over it and excuse it as his "style of play."

It isn't even my style of play. I'm not generally much of a leader (at least on MS). I'm just ending the RVS.

mongoose either ignored or forgot about q21

Yes. Ignored = scum (pretending to have not seen it and distancing [possibility of WIFOM]or pretending to distance[/possibility of WIFOM] from q21). Forgot about = town or scum.

[implosion]

Snow day

I'm a bit surprised that Implosion's vote on mongoose for distancing wasn't a joke.

It was a half-joke. A semi-legitimate reason for a vote, intended to get out of the RVS.

post 64

Okay, post 64 just REEKS of the classic "vote a townie, fos a scumbuddy" move. And his explanation is that... he doesn't want to unvote, vote, unvote and vote in the same post. First of all, why not? Second of all, then why not just vote WoMC? He's only at L-3 right now by my calculation.

---

@WoMC

: please provide a completed game (if possible) in which you "set a trap" as town, similarly to how you did here, since you say it's a part of your meta.

[implosion]

town:
implosion
mb
neko
ICE
Yoshi
Zdenek

leaning town:
q21

neutral for now:
neil
silavor

leaning scum:
WoMC

scum:
mongoose
nameless
over9000

Discuss.

[implosion]

Regarding implosion's list, I feel like his positioning of nameless is extremely suspect. Why did you put nameless down as one of the scummiest? I can't find anything suspicious that he's done, and I can't find anything besides a random vote against him in anything you've said. You seemed to arbitrarily put him down there. Can you explain what he has done that you find scummy? Your stance against mongoose is fully justified and I agree with it, but like nameless, you haven't said anything about over9000.

Hm. I just reread Nameless and I'm honestly not sure why I had him in the scum category. He goes to null. It might have been residual from the RVS vote or something... I'm honestly not sure why I had him there. As for _Over9000, His ISO 2 seems overly cautious and his ISO 3 seems overly unnecessary. mb's explained him.

By the way, I don't think the trend of posting a comprehensive list of scum and town reads needs to continue. Listing one's top scum suspects should suffice.

Yes, that will be the only list I shall be posting, as it does give scum an idea of who to target/not to target. I don't think it is very harmful 3-4 pages in though, as it is initial thought, and peoples views can change a lot through out the day.

I also did realize this, and was thinking essentially what you said in this post.

[implosion]

He seems to be trying to appear to be obvious town

??? how would it be possible to distinguish between someone who's "trying to appear obvious town" and someone who is in reality obvious town? Isn't it technically the responsibility of everyone (town and mafia and pretty much every other role except jester) to look like obvious town so that they don't get lynched?

Oh yeah, this is Too Townie... good call whoever said that (Nameless?)

Implosion - His "semi-legitimate" vote on mongoose was a load of crap, his list of suspects without justification is a classic filler post, having a complete list of (non)suspects at all this early on seems unlikely, and changing his stance on me the moment he's challenged by ICEninja is kind of dubious.

I don't see how that's in any way a filler post. If you want me to, I could elaborate on the reads, but it's early game so a lot of it is based on gut. I don't see how my "semi-legitimate" vote was a load of crap, either. It ended the RVS pretty effectively.

Harsh reality... To put it simple:

I'm not into this game right now. I need to refocus, but it isn't going to be happening anytime soon. Don't read too much into my posts, I'm not scum, I'm town. Lynch me if you think I'm wrong, but I'm vanilla. So it's not like I can do anything at night for you guys. Life is happening right now, and it's not helping me with this game.

First of all, holy AtE. Second of all, I find this claim completely uncalled for and more than that something that you had no reason to do as town OR scum, especially considering by your record that you're experienced at mafia. Why did you claim?

Oh. and he's gone. Woo questions that will never be answered.

Finally, I don’t like seeing the entire scumscales being posted by Implosion and mb53. I didn’t take very seriously Implosion’s kickoff of the RVS and declaration of ending RVS on page 1, but coupled with his posting of an entire scumscale in #73 (bad, bad, bad for all the reasons noted by people earlier) this comes across as a transparent attempt to try to lead/get the ball rolling in order to gain town cred (and if it means flushing out potential PRs, then it really is a win-win). Implosion, even if you don’t think it is *very* harmful, it is still *harmful* and unnecessary, and I get the distinct impression that you are experienced enough to know better. I also have no clue why mb53 played follow-the-leader in #80 (mb, why did you make that post?), but if it means that doing something harmful like posting a full scumscale is causing other players to follow Implosion’s example in this instance, I’m not liking it. IGMEOY, Implosion.

I don't see it as overall harmful. I see it as a way to stimulate discussion, and a way to make current opinions known. Those opinions don't really help the scum so early in the game, so there's essentially no harm. Also, it sounds like you're giving me the fos only because mb followed... why? How can you fos me for something someone else did?

[implosion]

What is IGMEOY?

also, sparing the agony of confusion in deciphering is bit of a hyperbole, wouldn't you say? Allright, maybe it would be reasonably easy to figure out who I voted for, but having modded and played games on other forums, I find it annoying when people do it, so I didn't. Why do I find it annoying? Because the person effectively chooses 2 people to vote and I personally wouldn't count wither vote as a mod. that wasn't my intention, and as such I didn't do that.

That still doesn't answer the question: why did you choose an RVS vote on q21 over a vote on someone you fos'd WoMC?

[implosion]

Implosion - His "semi-legitimate" vote on mongoose was a load of crap, his list of suspects without justification is a classic filler post, having a complete list of (non)suspects at all this early on seems unlikely, and changing his stance on me the moment he's challenged by ICEninja is kind of dubious.

I don't see how that's in any way a filler post. If you want me to, I could elaborate on the reads, but it's early game so a lot of it is based on gut. I don't see how my "semi-legitimate" vote was a load of crap, either. It ended the RVS pretty effectively.

It's a filler post because it has the appearance of scumhunting and deep consideration, but you haven't actually observed, argued or justified anything. You could have determined the order by dice for all we know. And calling your vote on mongoose even semi-legitimate is an epic reach (accidentally missing a player's name at the start of a game = distancing scum OMG). 'Ending RVS' isn't a meaningful justification since any scum could use it to handwave an early-game error and D1 is generally a gradual increase in seriousness rather than a simple on/off switch anyway.

It isn't supposed to look like "deep consideration." It's still early game. I didn't argue or justify most of them, but I have observed the thread to make them. Again, a lot of it is gut. I elaborated on the mongoose vote earlier by the way - either he didn't see q21 (could be town or scum) or he is distancing (scum). And besides, if you're going to go through the trouble to make your RVS vote for someone with a specific kind of name, it seems a bit strange that you would miss the person that actually fits that criterion.

Regardless, my vote on mongoose is no longer RVS at all. Besides, it should be incredibly clear from the post in which I voted mongoose that I was trying to end the RVS... to say that it isn't an acceptable justification is ludicrous. Did you even read the context of that vote? I assume you did based on the "on/off switch" comment, in which case it should be obvious that it was an attempt to end the RVS.

Separate note: I won't be here tomorrow or most of Saturday. I will be here Sunday.

[implosion]

I can't imagine any purpose for implosion to eg. still post questions to an already replaced player other than showing off how much of a detailed, scumhunting town's townie he is. (see: #110 aka "Woo questions that will never be answered.")

I was writing them as I was reading the thread, saw that neil had been replaced, and didn't feel like deleting them.

[implosion]

I get a really bad feeling right now from the _over9000 wagon. He's a

really

easy target, and I'd bet there's at least one scum on his wagon right now. He seems like too easy of a person for scum to pressure for them to pass up, unless he is scum, in which case I still think they'd be inclined to bus him. I'd rather withhold any lasting read on him until he posts content, if he ever does. If not, then IDK.

WoMC wagon - I don't really like this wagon either. He isn't as much of an easy target, but he is to an extent. And since he provided a game in which he sort of set a trap (assuming that he had a different name on a different forum) I'm inclined to not find the "trap" scummy.

nameless's mb vote - seems a bit contrived. If none of your suspects have wagons, how would you expect a wagon to form from a coinflip vote? If me/mb/q21 are your suspects, you should be trying to start a wagon on one of us or at least get some others to vote... how does flipping a coin to pick who you vote instead of figuring out your biggest scumread and voting them accomplish this, or even pressure?

Still waiting for a response from mongoose once he can.

[implosion]

I don't like implosion's views right now at all. He's basically calling people out for voting the scummiest players. What do you want us to do? Pressure players who we don't believe are scummy? Of course I'm going to vote for the "easiest" player to wagon, because it means he's the scummiest. I felt like Weapon's original wagon built in the first couple pages was suspect, considering how many people jumped on that and with so little to add, but I don't see a single vote for over9000 right now that isn't completely justified.

The issue is, _over9000 hasn't posted any real content yet, but has said that he will (just noticed his one post on the last page with real content, but that's minimal). I agree, he looks scummy right now, and the votes on him are justified - but the wagon is developing more quickly than I think it should be. Or rather, I feel like if I were scum, I would push very hard on him because he appears unlikely to defend himself well. For the same reason, if I were scum and _over9000 is scum, I'd make sure to be on his wagon in case it goes through so that it becomes a bus.

Be their votes justified or unjustified, I still think that there's likely scum on the 9000 wagon. It's just too easy of a wagon to jump on, especially since it's now the leading wagon.

[implosion]

I get a really bad feeling right now from the _over9000 wagon.

scum:
mongoose
nameless
over9000

^ Here implosion distances himself from a wagon that he helped to push.

This is out of context. I say that I have a bad feeling about the _over9000 wagon, then ELABORATE on that and explain that I think the people

on

the wagon are likely mafia. In that paragraph, I don't think I said much about whether or not over9000 himself is scum. Please reread my views on the _over9000 wagon. I do think he is scummy; however, I've stated multiple times that I think that whether or not he is mafia, there is mafia on his wagon. No distancing or contradiction exists here. Besides, right now I'm pushing mongoose, who isn't freaking answering a question i've had for several days.

I'd rather withhold any lasting read on him until he posts content

As for _Over9000, His ISO 2 seems overly cautious and his ISO 3 seems overly unnecessary. mb's explained him.

^ Here implosion ignores his previous read and backtracks his own specific analysis, for the purpose of excusing himself from taking a stance.

Keyword: lasting. Over9000 needs to post more content before a strong read can be made, imo.

I'd bet there's at least one scum on his wagon right now

I agree, he looks scummy right now, and the votes on him are justified

^ Here implosion implicitly contradicts himself; ie. if the votes are justified, there's no reason to assume any given voter is scum.

Wrong, and misrepresentation. I've explained multiple times why I think there is scum on his wagon, but I'll humor you and say it again.

Case one: _Over9000 is town. Mafia will jump on the wagon because he is an incredibly easy mislynch. Just because a mafia is voting a townie, it doesn't mean that their vote can't be "justified." It means that they're voting a mislynch, but it can still be a justified vote. A vote being justified has a correlation with someone being mafia, but not all townies' votes are necessarily justified and not all mafia's votes are necessarily unjustified.

Case two: _Over9000 is scum. Mafia will jump on the wagon because it's likely to hit a lynch, and they need to be seen as bussing. For those that are town, imagine that you were mafia (in fact, there are likely 3 mafia who all could be doing this). Wouldn't you jump on the Over9000 wagon whether he was a townie or a scumbuddy?

He isn't as much of an easy target, but he is to an extent.

^ Here implosion gives his stance on a major bandwagon (WoMC) ... as a meaningless, wishy-washy statement.

I'm saying I don't like it, but I dislike it less than the over9000 wagon. How is that wishy-washy? You've taken it completely and horribly out of context. In context, this comes immediately after I talk about the _over9000 wagon, which I said was a very easy target (be he town or mafia).

Or rather, I feel like if I were scum, I would push very hard on him because he appears unlikely to defend himself well. For the same reason, if I were scum and _over9000 is scum, I'd make sure to be on his wagon in case it goes through so that it becomes a bus.

^ Here implosion very heavily WIFOMs to convince the town his actions are not scummy.

This isn't WIFOM - this is me considering what I would do if I were scum in this situation. You can see it as WIFOM if you want, and there's really nothing I can do, but it isn't.

Fair amount of misrep in that case thar.

[implosion]

And to state the obvious here: if town-implosion considered _over9000 scummy and the bandwagon justified (which, #164, he claims to), there'd be no reason for him to object to lynching _over9000 anyway. Unless he planned on letting scum get away because they bussed each other? I don't think so.

As you continue to completely misrep me, major

FoS

. My vote stays on mongoose, though. I never once objected to lynching _over9000. I said that there was probably mafia on the wagon.

Implosion's mind-reading of the scum and entire justification for this is WIFOM aka circular reasoning. The easiest way to demonstrate is to pick an example and make the counter-arguments.

[wifom example goes here]

Two responses. First of all, if we take any of the even-numbered lines in your example, they don't make sense because an easy target is by definition someone town that townies will consider scummy. Second of all, WIFOM is something that should be ignored in favor of Occam's razor, which would lead to the simplest explanation that there is probably scum on the 9000 wagon.

I feel like implosion is quickly becoming the scummiest player right now. However, if he has a very specific mindset (that I won't state right now), then I feel like his defense is adequate. My position on him and whether or not I will be voting him depends largely on how he answers this question:

If you believe that there is scum on over9000's wagon regardless of his alignment, why do you believe the situation is more likely to be he is town with scum on his wagon than scum with scum on his wagon?

Where did I say that I thought it was more likely town with scum on the wagon? IIRC, the only statement I've made about 9000's alignment is that he does appear scummy.

He's a

really easy

target,

Soo... You suggest that we attack the people that aren't scummy?

No. In fact, I agree that he is scummy, and I'm sure that there is town on his wagon (theoretically it could be all scum, but doubtful). I just think that given the situation, context, and what _over9000 has said so far, that his wagon is likely to contain scum.

WIFOM.

Occam's razor.

[implosion]

I believe _over9000 was at L-4 (and he has since garnered two more votes) when Implosion made the fuss about that bandwagon. WoMC was a vote higher, and Implosion at that point was encouraging a different bandwagon that was earlier in the day, when we had less to go on. So, my question is—given that scum are likely to hop onto a (or any) bandwagon of an ‘easy target,’ why were you casting suspicion on one bandwagon when you explicitly encouraged the other?

The fact that _over9000 had not contributed anything significant whereas WoMC had said things that could be interpreted either way made _over9000 an easier target IMO. If you attack WoMC in that situation, you have to justify what he said as scummy whereas attacking _over9000 you just have to explain how he hasn't said anything.

So, implosion finds WMC to be less scummy and therefore less of an easy target. So that makes his wagon less scummy? There is a major disconnect in logic here it seems. Implosion, can you clarify how WMC's wagon isn't just as suspect if not more so than over's?

See above.

Where did I say that I thought it was more likely town with scum on the wagon? IIRC, the only statement I've made about 9000's alignment is that he does appear scummy.

I'd say your current vote indicates that you believe over9000 is more likely town than scum. Why do you believe this? If I am wrong, please explicitly state how you feel. As I said, how you answer this is critical to where my vote goes. I will explain my reasoning and thought process after you respond.

No. In fact, I agree that he is scummy, and I'm sure that there is town on his wagon (theoretically it could be all scum, but doubtful). I just think that given the situation, context, and what _over9000 has said so far, that his wagon is likely to contain scum.

Once again, here you state that you find him scummy, but insist that there

must

(in this post you say "is likely" to) be scum on his wagon and vote for them.

The only thing that my current vote indicates is that my largest scum read is mongoose. I believe there to be scum on the _over9000 wagon - however, there are several people on the wagon and I find mongoose overall the scummiest of everyone. I find _over9000 scummy, but I have no strong read on his alignment at the moment.

WoMC wallpost looks okay, but I only skimmed over it right now. KTS doesn't read that scummy to me, but I may need to look more in-depth at his posts. Still waiting on mongoose >.>

[implosion]

@ICE: I don't see how I'm dodging your question at all. I said I had no strong read on _over9000's alignment. Saying which is MORE likely isn't really relevant, since I don't think one is drastically more likely than the other. Saying I have no strong read on his alignment should answer your question. In case you don't realize/understand that, in your terms, roughly equal chances.

@Saint: A few things. First, why is neko SK? Isn't that a huge leap of logic and/or speculation? Second, why do you find my list and/or anything else scummy? I'm not sure if that's iioa, but it's something like that... giving reads and not explaining them. Also, mb "explained _over9000" in his ISO 4. It didn't "sell" me, it's just that _over9000's scumminess had already been explained in a previous post.

I also just went over a couple of ISOs. silavor, I don't like much on ISO. he really isn't contributing anything of his own. More than that, I feel like he's ignoring a lot of the main topics of discussion. silavor, what do you think about:
1) what I said about the _over9000 wagon
2) the existence of my/mb's scumlists
3) _over9000's lack of activity
4) (although you haven't posted since this) Saint's replacing _over9000.

[implosion]

Sorry, I've been really busy the past couple days. I should have time to catch up tomorrow.

[implosion]

CATCH UP INCOMING

[implosion]

mb's question in 239: I answered in 236.

ICE's 242: the way I was thinking about this might be a little strange, but I'm going to try again to explain it again. _over9000 was undoubtedly scummy (unless you ask Saint apparently, but that's another story). However, I did not have a

strong

read on him because of the amount of content he had posted. I agreed that he was scummy - I did not, however, have a strong read on his alignment. Scummy does not necessarily mean scum considering that _over9000 had written so few posts. And I never voted mongoose for voting _over9000, I voted mongoose for a contradiction or something (I think, too lazy to go back and check) and then for not answering a question. Frankly, me stating that there is likely scum on the wagon was for later - e.g., it was an observation that was made with the intent to be useful later or even at the time to figure out the mafia. I'm not sure why you're focusing so much on it, anyway. It wasn't exactly a groundbreaking point. I never contradicted myself. I may have been somewhat unclear, but I've clarified my argument several times.

Emp 249: did you see people's reactions to mb/my scumscales before posting this?

Emp 273: serious question here, serious answer please - are you intentionally making your justifications for voting/fosing/everything/etcetera bad?

Agreed with the last paragraph of neko's 279. I really don't remember seeing this from emp in the one game I've played with him (even if it is only one game and I was only alive for one day, and he was town)

Nice juxtaposition between Nameless's 297 and the votecount in 299.

Nameless 315: so assuming you're also still okay with my lynch, that's 4 lynches that you're okay with today, and even if not, 3 - why so many people? And moreover why is it even relevant that you'd be okay with a setael or a womc lynch when there's no wagon on either of them?

Liking IP's posts for the most part, especially since I share his scumreads (see below)

340 is epic. Just epic. Not necessarily evidence against Saint, but epic.

I was gonna unvote and vote Emp, but then noticed that he's mongoose's replacement and I already have a vote on him. Hm. I'm also building up suspicion of ICE, partially because I honestly don't see why he's focusing so much on one thing that I said in passing. Plus, although I may have been somewhat unclear, he is presenting a contradiction where none exists. And he was on the _over9000 wagon.

[implosion]

Also @ Implosion: why does 3-4 people seem like a lot for someone to be open to lynching on D1?

It feels like it could be an attempt to set up future mislynches.

You've said over9000 is scummy, repeatedly, but you don't believe he's scum? How is this not a contradiction? How can you find someone scummy but not have a read on their alignment? What does it even MEAN to find someone scummy? This is absolutely a contradiction, one of severe fence sitting. Highly scummy.

Maybe if you... idk... read what I said, you'd have an answer to this without asking the question? _over9000 said too little to get an accurate read on his alignment.

Well, what do you think about the cases being made on Saint? You state that with Saint's predecessor _over that there wasn't enough material to analyze for scumminess, but that isn't the case with Saint.

Saint doesn't read as particularly scummy to me. After considering it a bit more, Saint's play doesn't really give me vibes that are necessarily scummy. Kind of strange, but I don't think scummy. So I'd lean town on that slot at this point.

Implosion: Why not so many people? There are gonna be 3-4 scum players in the game, so being willing to lynch any of my top 3-4 suspects seems normal. Listing them explicitly is helpful in case a wagon falls apart close to the deadline and the town needs to quickly decide a new one.

Eh, see above. I mean, it's not like there's no possible town motivation for it, but the scum motivation for it makes more sense.

@Zdenek's question in 362, it made me laugh. Doesn't really count as evidence though.

Emp has provided one post, 357, with what I feel are reasons to legitimately vote someone. And I'm pretty sure a fair amount of those are made-up. Emp, can you provide specific cases where the people you are accusing have done the things you are accusing them of? It isn't acceptable to say "Hey guys, x is scum because of y, now all of you should find evidence to support what I said."

[implosion]

Sorry about inactivity. I was at a debate tournament yesterday and Friday, and I got kind of lazy today...

Saint doesn't read as particularly scummy to me. After considering it a bit more, Saint's play doesn't really give me vibes that are necessarily scummy. Kind of strange, but I don't think scummy. So I'd lean town on that slot at this point.

You know what I notice about this answer? It doesn't comment on or even acknowledge (hey that sounds familiar) a single aspect of the case against Saint.

I've seen the case. It doesn't really convince me. I'm not going to go through and defend Saint, that's his job.

Doesn't really count as evidence though.

Okay, so if a whole wall of over half a dozen players all pointing out scummy aspects of Saint's play and asking questions that - again - Saint refuses to acknowledge (*inhale*) does

not

count as evidence, what actually does? Or would you like to go through the list and defend against each point individually?

Or I guess you could just go ahead and wave your hands some more, if you feel like that's helping.

There's no reason why a member of the mafia would be more likely to act the way Saint is than a member of the town, IMO. Why are you asking me to defend him? I think he's town, not particularly strongly, so why should I go out of my way to defend him?

More so than you posting full scumscales?

That was done very early on. Posting a scumscale on page two doesn't mean that I instantly want to lynch anyone on that scale. Saying "I'm willing to lynch a, b, c, or d" does.

Implosion, I asked you about the CASE on Saint, not Saint himself.

Saying that I think Saint is town should be equivalent to saying that I don't agree with the case on him.

On Emp's claim: honestly, I'm not sure if I believe it. He keeps saying that there's no scum motivation, but people have pointed out scum motivation several times. In fact, if there were no scum motivation for claiming mason, that in itself would be a scum motivation for claiming mason, because no town would expect scum to do it (ergo wifom). And more importantly, he just isn't fitting into what I've seen of town Emp.

Also, Setael is wrong. We DO NOT want Emp to claim his mason buddy (or for his mason buddy to claim). That would basically be a waste of a confirmed townie if Emp is real. Emp should just breadcrumb it in a way that only his mason buddy will be able to see. 2 masons would only be confirmed to each other - it's feasible that scum could gambit and claim masons (Nameless said this in the post above this). And in the case that Emp is real, there's really no need to. Besides, we

want

scum to cc his partner if he's real - ccs are good for the town.

@Neko - not sure if we would be able to come to a lynch. I think lynching Emp is the best choice.

ICE's last 3 posts all say the same thing over and over, by the way. ICE - is your "commanding case" on me based on anything other than what I said about the _over9000 wagon?

[implosion]

Sorry, I'm really stressed right now >.>. I think mb is more likely to flip scum than Saint based on recent posts. Ergo,

Unvote, Vote: mb

If I have time tomorrow I'll do something more thorough. I probably won't though.

[implosion]

Yes, mb, I hadn't said anything about you. I had read what others had been saying about you, and some of your recent posts, and liked them less than those of Saint. I had a lot of work to do last night, and less tonight.

The reason why I think mb is scummier than Saint is, as others have talked about, his recent posting. Like ISOs 34-36, they're all really vapid. That trend continues through his recent posting. There's just really little new information, a lot of restating what he's already said. That's basically it. As I said, I don't think Saint is that scummy.

Concerning the emp vs king fight: i think king is town. His posts look legitimate to me. Emp kind of looks like he's grasping at straws to continue attacking king/Nameless, which I don't quite understand why he's doing if he's town. Since he isn't being lynched, though, his alignment should be clearer in the future if he survives.

[implosion]

@Darth, I'm sort of sheeping, but not really... it's less than a day to the deadline, and I think mb is the better of the two wagons.
@Emp, I don't read what King's said like that.

Someone hammer mb before deadline. We don't want an accidental no lynch.

[implosion]

Sorry, still really busy, posting to avoid prod >.>. I'll make a large content-filled possibly wall post tomorrow or thursday, whichever i can find time to.

[implosion]

WARNING: this is going to wind up being the largest post in the game, possibly bigger than the OP. As such, I'm gonna cut it off into multiple posts.

Page 25

:

With two townie deaths, and myself being a townie, perhaps it is best to massclaim at this point, as our power roles will begin to be sniped otherwise. I am completely for this.

I don't see how this logically works. First of all, setup speculation is pointless in a closed setup... trying to outguess the mafia is stupid. Second of all, I don't see what we would gain from a massclaim like this. If the point is to avoid having PRs get sniped, I don't think that those PRs claiming out loud will help with that. Why would it make sense to massclaim?

I would also like to high five the ghost of Pie for drawing the NK as a VT. (I guess I should also thank the scum for choosing him since I was having a hard time reading him, but was definitely leaning scum.

This reads as a bit odd to me. Why did you include it in your post? It seems unnecessary.

My top two suspects remain Implosion and Saint. I didn't much like Imp's vote of Mb53, it had wagonhopping written all over it, and when pressed by Mb, Implosion basically concedes sheeping his vote because:

I wouldn't call it "wagonhopping." I mean, technically it was, but deadline was approaching and there were two clear leading bandwagons.

Gonna go ahead and say it--pot, meet kettle. (and as an obligatory pre-empt to the "Mb flipped town, doesn't that mean Imp will flip town too?" argument, Mb then put his vote on Implosion, who had little chance of being seen as an 'easy lynch,' so while their behavior was similar, their voting patterns weren't, and right now, that is what I am really finding demonstrably scummy about Implosion.)

First of all, hypocrisy isn't a scumtell. Second of all, how do you find my voting pattern scummy? My vote was on Emp because the deadline was approaching, then there was an extension which allowed time for new wagons to form.

Yeah, things haven't changed my mind much. We still really need to be lynching implosion. I'll take a good hard look at Nameless's end of day 1 play, however. If that comes up fishy, then I might be inclined to suspect him.

I'm still a bit worried about Empking, but if he's scum then he is guaranteed going to die before the game is over so he isn't a huge priority for me right now.

Saint still looks like a fair lynch too, but I'm still favoring implosion. If implosion flips scum, I'm probably going to barrel down on Saint until he's dead, due to their day 1 interactions leading a connection that runs even deeper than Saint's scummy play.

If implosion is town, however, I'm not sure where I'll go from there.

Just something that I should probably do at some point, may as well be now: your case on me is completely terrible. A large portion of it is based on what I said about _over9000, in one post, a small point that I made, which I explained over and over. I've explained over and over how _over9000 could be scummy without necessarily being scum. I've explained pretty much the whole thing over and over, and yet you still say I'm "beating around the bush." The rest of your case is based on some link between me and Saint. To quote the wiki, since it's the most convenient place I can remember to find this:

Do not fool yourself into thinking you can call the scumteam, especially before anyone has flipped scum. Don't bother with trying to draw connections between players until one of them is dead. It's tempting! but futile.

Why are you placing so much value on scumteam speculation? At this point, honestly, it seems like the majority of your case on me... if you're town, there's no reason for you to do so since it is essentially futile (besides, if you are town, then it's wrong). If you're mafia, by all means, push scumteam speculation. It's just scummy, because it's a BS way to push a person. also, the last sentence of the quoted post reads scummy to me. It feels to me like setting up a failsafe for if you manage to push the wagon on me through, i flip town, and people start to turn on you. So ICE, I'd like to ask you. Say I get lynched today and I flip town. Who would you likely suspect next? You've been tunneling me since mid-day one, and I'm curious to know what your opinion is on any player in this game whose name isn't implosion or Saint. If you're going to tunnel me for the entire game, please, explain your case... the vast majority of it is totally invalid.

We shouldn't be looking in to implosion because Saint and implosion are scum buddies, remember? Saint was actually on the implosion wagon, pushing quite hard, but fell off that wagon once town was distracted and never looked back. Coincidence? I think not

See quoted above from wiki.

Empking: Reasons?

Funny joke question there.

I started the mb wagon and neko was the first to follow me onto it. Next is Saint. Then everybody starts voting saint - KingTwelveSixteen, mb53, InflatablePie, nameless, Darth Yoshi (2 of these I now know are town). So at this point it was Saint with 5 votes and mb with 3. Then empking and implosion join the mb wagon, followed by swiftstrike and then pie hammers. Of these, if Saint is town I think maybe one of neko, saint, implosion and swiftstrike could be scum, but I'll bet the rest of the scum stayed off wagon. (These are Ice, KTS, nameless, Darth, Zdenek)

The most likely permutation is either one on two off or two on one off, if we assume three scum. How many exactly there are is speculation, can be WIFOM'd by the mafia, and isn't the best way to figure out peoples' alignments this early in the game with only two flips.

Note: at this point, I am reconsidering about Saint. I still think he's town overall... but people continuing to speculate about what peoples' alignments are based on his alignment before his alignment has flipped is pointless. Setael's talking about both cases makes sense, I think. It would be a largely information-giving lynch.

I don't want to think too much about what would happen down the road, though. I feel like I've seen a strong connection between Saint and implosion that indicates scum buddies, but other than that, day 3 will bring what day 3 brings. We should be talking about who is scummy now.

If you don't want to think too much about the future, then

why are you talking so much about the future?

Almost every single post you make is talking about some connection between me and Saint... if you don't want to talk about the future, then why speculate so much?

[implosion]

Page 26-27

This post is the first one of Saint's that gave me scum vibes:

With two townie deaths, and myself being a townie, perhaps it is best to massclaim at this point, as our power roles will begin to be sniped otherwise. I am completely for this.

In terms of who we should lynch, I believe we should follow InflatablePie's logic of either me or EMPKING today.
Therefore,

vote: EMPKING

He also gave a FoS of zdenek we should look into with his last post.

I don't like AT ALL that he starts D1 voting a claimed mason and his reason is "because Pie said we should lynch either me or Empking, so I guess it should be empking". Wha? Nothing has changed from yesterday's good reasons to not be voting a claimed mason except that the wagon we switched to ended up being a townie. I don't see townies voting empking right now. At all. I also don't like the suggestion to mass claim. Scum is likely frustrated they hit vanilla last night. They don't want that to happen again tonight. Of course they want a mass claim. Scummiest idea ever.

This is somewhat similar to how I feel right now about Saint. I think this post (of saint's) is scummy (awaiting answer to my question about it). I think it's a terrible idea. I still think that on the whole, he is more likely town.

@Setael 627; I'll definitely support an ICE wagon.

Okay. Lets look at Ice's summary of himself today in 629.

you jumped from finding Saint "mildly scummy" to being ready to lynch him within minutes.

I did, hmm? How about we take a look at every single post I've made during day 2 so far:

Saint still looks like a fair lynch too, but I'm still favoring implosion.

If implosion flips scum, I'm probably going to barrel down on Saint until he's dead

, due to their day 1 interactions leading a connection that runs even deeper than Saint's scummy play.

We shouldn't be looking in to implosion because

Saint and implosion are scum buddies, remember?

Saint was actually on the implosion wagon, pushing quite hard, but fell off that wagon once town was distracted and never looked back. Coincidence? I think not.

Alright I reread nameless. He's pretty town. And he's probably right about

Saint (who I believe is a likely scum buddy with implosion).

I'm definitely not going to be voting Nameless today unless there is some significant information I missed. He was dead right about the mb wagon that sprung up. Sure mb wasn't the most town player, but he wasn't implosion.

Both Saint and implosion were on the mb wagon. He was the easiest non Saint/implosion person for scum to wagon, so this further supports my theory.

Alright, I like the reasons for voting Saint. I'm on board

So I went from thinking he's mildly scummy to being ready to lynch him in minutes? He went from being scum I wanted to lynch tomorrow to scum I want to lynch today. Big difference.

Yes, I agree that you HAVE reasons for lynching him (information is always good to have), but considering you had a TOWN read on him yesterday, the reasons you gave to justify voting him were bad. Basically, I liked your vote, but not your reasons for it.

Now your vote for me is bad and OMGUS.

Saint/implosion is still a better lynch though.

Bolded statements are

hardcore tunneling

. ICE, apparently, feels the need to reassert what he's said in every other post he's made this game in every new post he makes. Why is this scummy? Well, a town player will post their opinion, push on people, and maybe if people forget their opinion remind people. I mean, it's not like everyone and their mother doesn't know that ICE says he thinks Saint and I are scumbuddies. On the other hand, saying in every single post, over and over repetitively that Saint and I are scumbuddies is a way to ignore everyone else. He's picked out the targets that he wants to push on, and is now closing himself off to any new information. If he's town, he has no reason to do this. If he's mafia, it provides an easy way to push on someone who is town while not talking extensively about other people. Moreover, going back to how he's said (multiple times) that he's "not sure where he'll go" if Saint flips town is a way to give him something to come back to after Saint flips town (if Saint is town, which I think).

At this point, not only is ICE scummier than Saint, but his lynch will be informational as well. He's been hardcore tunneling on me and Saint, he's attacking Setael, etc.

considering two townie deaths, and the fact i'm a townie, it would really benefit the town to get all our cards out on the table, to properly lynch between counterclaims/the townie pool

EVERYONE needs to claim for this to work.

So Saint, you apparently seem to know the setup... how?

Nameless/ICE reads of Saint's post: this does actually make Saint look very scummy. And yet, I don't know. Part of it might be that I think ICE is scum, which would make Saint likely town. But part of it might be that Saint = furcolow, and I'm not sure if this is necessarily scummy in this context. It might also just be that the rest of the game makes more sense to me if Saint is town. If an ICE wagon doesn't form, I would join the Saint wagon. I honestly would be joining it mostly for the information. I'm finding him really hard to read right now, and things about him that I'm thinking are conflicting. It might also be that the link between me and Saint (when I look just at the reasoning and at Saint's play) does sort of make sense to me. And yet, since I know that I'm town, I know that no such link exists.

What I mean is that Emp is not a very pro-town player right now, regardless of his alignment. Regardless of him being scum, mason, or even VT, he's hurt the town and has done very little to help. If he is indeed a mason and is cleared by a mason buddy, then scum has no choice but to night kill him as he'll be a town aligned player that town won't be lynching. This would then prevent scum from night killing one of the people who are genuinely helping town.

You also seem to have knowledge of the setup. Who's to say that there's no masons

or

cop? You seem to be falling back on the "oh, well cop can clear him and his partner" idea. Well if they're real (as has been stated) it's somewhat likely that there is no cop; and if they're fake, there still is not necessarily a cop.

VOTE: ICEninja

[implosion]

Why are you placing so much value on scumteam speculation? At this point, honestly, it seems like the majority of your case on me...

I can't speak for ICEninja here, but a key point in MY case against you was that your interactions with _over9000 / Saint and their wagon were scummy regardless of Saint's alignment; there were evident scum motives either way, and your actions were unusual for a town player, explained or not. It's not just "scumteam speculation" that players find you scummy.

Well first of all, I still fail to see how my interactions with that slot are scummy. I've justified everything that I've said. And second of all, look at the quoted posts from ICE and how they tunnel on not just one person, but on two people as a scumteam.

Funny joke question there.

How is it a joke question to ask a player to explain their vote on me?

This was sarcasm (directed at Emp not explaining anything).

So Saint, you apparently seem to know the setup... how?

You also seem to have knowledge of the setup.

This is a closed setup. Scum aren't going to know any more about the town power roles than town are, so why are you acting as if this is a scumtell?

First of all, remember the fundamental premise of the game of mafia: an informed minority against an uninformed majority. The minority is, by definition, more informed about the setup because they know what roles they have (and can then gauge how strong the town is). And second of all, more importantly, flawed reasoning is flawed reasoning. People reasoning things out from information that they don't know and have no way of ascertaining (unlike alignments, which can be ascertained through scumhunting) is pointless and should be pointed out.

Nameless/ICE reads of Saint's post: this does actually make Saint look very scummy. And yet, I don't know. Part of it might be that I think ICE is scum, which would make Saint likely town.

This is exactly as much of scumteam speculation as you're accusing ICEninja of doing, you know.

To an extent; however, what ICE was trying to do (tie an essentially inextricable link between me and Saint) is different than me saying that I'll think X is town if Y flips scum, insofar as his claim is much stronger and more than that, saying 2 people are both scum if either of them flip scum for sure is a much more... unlikely claim, for lack of a better word. As Sagan said, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proofs. Me saying that Saint is likely town if ICE flips scum is much less of an "extraordinary" claim than ICE saying that me/Saint are almost definitely both scum.

[implosion]

Implosion, yes I have said a lot about you and Saint being scum buddies. You both happen to be my biggest scum reads, and you happen to have connections to each other. No matter how useless trying to form scum teams during day 1 is, I really think you both are going to flip scum. I can't vote for both of you at the same time, so I'll be happy lynching one of you today. Town has shown me several good reasons why it is a better idea to lynch Saint today than you.

You both admit that speculation is useless and say that you're going to continue doing it... sigh. The point I'm making isn't that you're pushing us because we're your biggest scumreads; my point is that in nearly every one of your recent posts, you say that you're pushing us because you see a link between us.

Implosion continues to horribly fence sit regarding Saint. More evidence that he is scum, and even MORE evidence that he is scum after Saint flips scum.

I agree, I am fence sitting. I'm getting very mixed ideas about Saint's slot. I'm really unsure about it at this point.

I don't have knowledge of the setup. I mean, seriously. The guy claimed mason. If he's telling the truth, he's got a mason buddy. So if he can be cleared by a mason, yes I'm going to assume there is a mason in this game. Also, I don't want to give scum information, but I have suspicion there's a cop in this game, based on my own observations. Whats to say I wasn't just saying that to encourage any possible cop of confirming the alignment of Empking?

Okay, first off, you saying that you think there's a cop in the game based on your own observation is both 1) completely unverifiable (since verification would mean outing someone that you apparently think is a cop), and 2) completely scummy (since town members will be focusing on finding mafia rather than finding town power roles or trying to figure out a closed setup).

Second off, you've basically admitted that you're speculating about the setup and have based some of your reasoning on speculation. If you're town, don't do that.

Mmmkay, my responses to Implosion's comments to me--I promise this won't be much of a wall.

Implosion:

I wouldn't call it "wagonhopping." I mean, technically it was, but deadline was approaching and there were two clear leading bandwagons.

Yeah, deadline was approaching, but IIRC, you, like many on the Mb wagon, expressed little suspicion of him beforehand. You hopping on the Saint wagon would have looked even odder, given your comments about the _over wagon on that playslot that caused some of us to suspect you to begin with (never mind the possibility that you two are scumchums together). So, yeah, your vote on Mb looks like it was hopped on by default.

If it "looks like it was hopped on by default," I don't really see how it's scummy. I mean, after the deadline extension, it was either keep my vote on Emp (not much reason to) or... dare I say it... hop onto another wagon. Based on the circumstances, I don't see how the vote is scummy.

Implosion:

First of all, hypocrisy isn't a scumtell.

Hypocrisy by itself, no. I was trying to point out that you were looking quite scummy yourself. If Mb looks scummy because of X and Y, and Implosion is exhibiting X and Y, then Implosion probably looks scummy.

Fair enough. Again though, I was really busy around the time of late yesterday-early today.

Implosion:

Second of all, how do you find my voting pattern scummy? My vote was on Emp because the deadline was approaching, then there was an extension which allowed time for new wagons to form.

Actually, your vote was on Emp's slot way back when it belonged to Mongoose, and I'm not sure it ever changed. Which isn't necessarily scummy, but I don't think you parked your vote on Emp for the reasons that you're stating now. In any case, I still see your Mb vote as scummish.

See above.

Also, your vote on ICE is giving off fumes of eau d'OMGUS. Actually, now that I look at it, the ICE wagon is covered in Drakkar OMGUS Noir.

If someone attacks me with a bad case, I'm going to attack them for it.

Finally, in a sentence, what's your read on Saint? You seem to hedge a lot about him in your catchup posts. What would you think about him being today's lynch?

In a sentence, I think the slot is slightly more likely to be town than to be mafia. I mentioned somewhere in the wallposts that I would vote for Saint if an ICE wagon doesn't get going, because my read on the slot is so fluctuating and because it's a good informational lynch.

[implosion]

@Swift - if you're accusing me of rolefishing, you're wrong... I didn't know that ICE was cop, and what he said wasn't making any sense to me.

I'd like Emp's mason partner to come forward. Are other people in agreement about this?

[implosion]

Frankly, ICE flipping cop kind of screws up my take on this game. I have a couple townreads, but no solid scumreads. I'll most likely do a thorough ISO on everyone tomorrow.

[implosion]

Ugh. I'm VT.

Don't hammer me until I have a chance to go through and post ISO's, at least ;_;

[implosion]

Currently typing up some ISOs and a vote count analysis. Will be fairly big.

[implosion]

VCA. I put my name in the townie list solely because I am most likely today's lynch. Having this in one place may be useful tomorrow, and having my name in blue will be more helpful. I've never actually done a legitimate VCA, so comments may not be great, but they're there.

Votecount the first:

implosion

(2):

mb53

, neko2086
mongoose (2): Darth Yoshi,

implosion

WeaponsOfMassConstruction (2):

ICEninja

,

silavor

mb53

(1): mongoose

ICEninja

(1): WeaponsOfMassConstruction

over9000

(1): q21

This looks bad for WoMC (now Swiftstrike). His wagon has 2 townies on it, and isn't gaining any momentum - meanwhile, his own vote is on a townie.

Votecount the Second:

WeaponsofMassConstruction (4):

ICEninja

,

silavor

,

_over9000

, q21
Mongoose (2): Darth Yoshi,

implosion

_over9000

(1):

mb53

q21 (1): mongoose

ICEninja

(1): WeaponsofMassConstruction

Silavor

(1): Zdenek

Okay. Based on this, I think it's safe to say that at least one if not both of WoMC/q21 (Swiftstrike and Setael) are mafia, based on WoMC's bandwagon.

Votecount the Fourth (apparently there was no third):

WeaponsofMassConstruction (4):

silavor

,

_over9000

, q21, mongoose

_over9000

(3):

mb53

, KingTwelveSixteen,

ICEninja

mongoose (2): Darth Yoshi,

implosion

KingTwelveSixteen (2): neko2086, nameless

ICEninja

(1): WeaponsofMassConstruction

Silavor

(1): Zdenek

This looks fairly bad for KTS. he's voting on a ML-wagon containing only town other than possibly him, and he's got two votes on him. If he's scum, one of neko/nameless may be distancing. neko and nameless probably aren't scum together.

Votecount the Fifth:

WeaponsofMassConstruction (3):

silavor

,

_over9000

, mongoose

_over9000

(3):

mb53

, KingTwelveSixteen,

ICEninja

mongoose (2): Darth Yoshi,

implosion

KingTwelveSixteen (2): neko2086, nameless

ICEninja

(1): WeaponsofMassConstruction

Silavor

(1): Zdenek
nameless (1): q21

q21 hops off the WoMC wagon. Zdenek's vote has remained, for a while now, stranded on a random townie whose wagon would never exist.

Votecount the Sixth:

WeaponsofMassConstruction (3):

silavor

,

_over9000

, mongoose

_over9000

(3):

mb53

, KingTwelveSixteen,

ICEninja

mongoose (2): Darth Yoshi,

implosion

Silavor

(2): Zdenek, q21
KingTwelveSixteen (1): neko2086

ICEninja

(1): WeaponsofMassConstruction

mb53

(1): nameless

q21 jumps to Silavor. Zdenek and q21 (Setael) are probably not scum together. Zdenek still doesn't move his vote, while q21 wagon hops.

_over9000

(4):

mb53

,

ICEninja

, neko2086, KingTwelveSixteen
WeaponsofMassConstruction (3):

silavor

,

_over9000

, mongoose

implosion

(2): Darth Yoshi, nameless

Silavor

(1): q21

ICEninja

(1): WeaponsofMassConstruction
nameless (1): Zdenek
mongoose (1):

implosion

This VC is fairly important. From this, based on the two main wagons, the following conclusions can be made: there is most likely one scum between {neko, KTS} and one scum between {Empking, Setael}. Nothing is certain, but those are the more likely scenarios. There also might be mafia between Darth/nameless, but I won't speculate too much about my own wagon when i haven't flipped yet. Next VC is just another hop from q21. These hops might be scummy.

Saint

(4):

mb53

, neko2086, KingTwelveSixteen, Zdenek

implosion

(3): Darth Yoshi, nameless,

ICEninja

ICEninja

(1): WeaponsofMassConstruction
Empking (1):

implosion

KingTwelveSixteen (1): Empking

At this point, ICE jumped on to my wagon and Zdenek jumped on to o9000's. I'm really not liking Zdenek's voting pattern - he has a useless vote for a while, moves around a bit, and then jumps on to a mislynch wagon.

Saint

(3):

mb53

, neko2086, nameless
Empking (3):

implosion

,

InflatablePie

, KingTwelveSixteen
nameless (2): Zdenek, Empking

implosion

(2): Darth Yoshi,

ICEninja

ICEninja

(2): WeaponsofMassConstruction, Setael

The Saint wagon dies down, and nameless joins. At this point, pretty sure of neko mafia. On the other hand, KTS jumps onto a non-confirmed BW (Emp's) from Saint. WoMC/Set probably contains mafia.

Empking (5):

implosion

,

InflatablePie

, KingTwelveSixteen, nameless, Darth Yoshi

Saint

(2):

mb53

, neko2086
nameless (2): Zdenek, Empking

ICEninja

(2): WeaponsofMassConstruction, Setael

implosion

(1):

ICEninja

Emp wagon builds up. KTS, nameless, and Darth Yoshi are all on it so far. It's safe to say at least one of the three is most likely mafia if Emp is town. If Emp is mafia, it could go either way.

Empking (6):

implosion

,

InflatablePie

, KingTwelveSixteen, nameless, Darth Yoshi,

mb53

nameless (3): Zdenek, Empking, Setael

ICEninja

(1): WeaponsofMassConstruction

implosion

(1):

ICEninja

Saint

(1): neko2086

Crux of the Emp wagon until it faded into nothingness. 3 townies (counting me) on it, 3 unconfirmeds. Really not sure how to read that wagon at this point. nameless's wagon might be interesting too, since it's composed entirely of living players. neko's vote lingers on Saint. There is most likely mafia on the nameless wagon if he's town, might be if he's scum (same as Emp's wagon).

Skipping the 13th, Votecount the fourteenth because it's more interesting:

Saint

(5): KingTwelveSixteen,

mb53

,

InflatablePie

, nameless, Darth Yoshi

mb53

(5): Setael, neko2086,

Saint

, Empking,

implosion

nameless (1): Zdenek

implosion

(1):

ICEninja

ICEninja

(1): Swiftstrike

Competing wagons,

both on town.

Meanwhile, a few people straggle, not in the wagons. It's safe to conjecture that there is, assuming a 3-person scumteam, one on each and one on random, or one on one and two on the other. I wanna say the first because Zdenek and Swift are both fairly scummy, so (again, nothing is 100%) but the mafia is most likely one person from each of {KTS, nameless, Darth Yoshi} {Setael, neko, Empking} {Zdenek, Swiftstrike}. Not sure on the first set, because they're mostly townreads. Second set, I'd guess neko. Third set, Zdenek, though both are somewhat likely.

Setael, neko2086,

Saint

, Empking,

implosion

, Swiftstrike,

InflatablePie

- mb's lynch wagon. I wanna say there are probably 2 mafia on it, which would probably be neko and swift. Not sure though, and there are a lot of possibilities.

To summarize my thoughts from this

There is probably one mafia in each of {KTS, nameless, Darth Yoshi} {Setael, neko, Empking} {Zdenek, Swiftstrike}
Between Swift and Setael, there is probably mafia
Between neko and Nameless, there is probably town
Between Zdenek and Setael, there is probably town
Between neko and KTS, there is probably mafia
Between Setael and Empking, there is probably mafia
Between Setael and WoMC, there is probably mafia
And none of these are for sure, by any means.

[implosion]

Heh. Post 750. Top of the page, too. That'll be easy to remember.

Day two

- getting lazier with notes

Votecount the Seventeenth:

Saint

(4): nameless, KingTwelveSixteen, Setael,

ICEninja

nameless (2): Empking, Zdenek
Empking (1):

Saint

implosion

(1): Darth Yoshi
Zdenek (1): Swiftstrike

At least someone in the mafia has gotta be pushing on Saint already.

Saint

(3): nameless, KingTwelveSixteen,

ICEninja

nameless (3): Empking, Zdenek,

Saint

implosion

(1): Darth Yoshi
Zdenek (1): Swiftstrike

ICEninja

(1): Setael

Setael's jump is possibly strange - competing wagons.

Votecount the Nineteenth:

Saint

(4): nameless, KingTwelveSixteen,

ICEninja

, neko2086
nameless (3): Empking, Zdenek,

Saint

implosion

(1): Darth Yoshi
Zdenek (1): Swiftstrike

ICEninja

(1): Setael

I'm starting to think it's a neko/Setael scumteam at this point. That would be fairly consistent with what I had in my last post, except for them both being on mb's wagon. Still, possible. I'd say at least one of them is mafia.

Votecount the Twentieth:

Saint

(4): nameless, KingTwelveSixteen,

ICEninja

, neko2086
nameless (2): Empking, Zdenek
Zdenek (2): Swiftstrike,

Saint

ICEninja

(2): Setael,

implosion

implosion

(1): Darth Yoshi

No relevant changes. I'm also starting to note Darth Yoshi's vote rarely appearing anywhere really relevant, which may be of note.

Saint

(5): nameless, KingTwelveSixteen,

ICEninja

, neko2086, Empking

ICEninja

(3): Setael,

implosion

,

Saint

nameless (1): Zdenek
Zdenek (1): Swiftstrike

implosion

(1): Darth Yoshi

Set may be mafia who wanted to distance from the Saint wagon, with neko as mafia pushing it. Emp jumps on, not much else new.

Votecount the Twenty Second:

Saint

(6): nameless, KingTwelveSixteen,

ICEninja

, neko208, Empking,

Saint

. LYNCHED

ICEninja

(2): Setael,

implosion

nameless (1): Zdenek
Zdenek (1): Swiftstrike

implosion

(1): Darth Yoshi

The lynch wagon, with a selfvote so that we don't get as much information from it.

Honestly, every time I start doing ISOs I feel like I'm not really getting anything useful... that's part of why I decided to do a VCA.

[implosion]

That's really just guesswork though, so eh.

So is everything in the game of mafia.

[implosion]

Implosion, what exactly are you hoping to achieve by posting #753?

Refutation of the point that my VCA was guesswork.

Implosions' VCAs are doing nothing for me.

Is this because it seems to put you in scummy positions a lot? If not, then why? And why does it need to "do something for you?" The point of me posting the VCA isn't to stop my bandwagon, I've pretty much given up that fight because I don't see any way to refute the case on me. It's to give dying opinions, something to consider, and to put the VCA in one place so people can refer to it later and draw their own conclusions (hence my name being in blue).

While I am not a big fan of the case on Implosion based on ICE's posts, but after skimming his ISO, I can see that there is a reasonable case that can be made on him. In particular, I would like to point out that in his more recent post, he comments that he doesn't have any scum reads. This can be a scum-tell because of the difficulty that scum can have faking scum hunting. Because of this, I am not too unhappy with the fact that he claimed. I'm pretty doubtful that there will be any other pro-town roles in a game with masons (assuming Empking is telling the truth) and a cop, and anyone could figure that out, so the VT claim was expected.

I claimed because I'm (or was) at L-1. I don't see how having "difficulty faking scumhunting" would lead me to say I have no fosses if I were in reality scum; the job of mafia is to avoid looking like mafia. Doing something as blatantly scummy as saying I have no fosses isn't something scum would probably do. Now, obviously, you can respond to this by saying it's WIFOM. Then again, so is everything in mafia.

Implosion's VCA is helpful only in that it summarizes some vote counts. I'm no mathematician, but it seems like he's pretty much pulling probability of scum (and number of scum) on any wagon out of nowhere.

I never assigned probabilities. I just said what I think is likely. Other people can draw their own conclusions.

[implosion]

Setael, saying it did nothing for you implied that you thought the purpose of the VCA was somehow for me to make myself look like town (e.g. it did nothing for you in terms of my alignment), or the statement was just unclear. It wasn't. Besides, I did respond to that point of neko's... it could just be that saying something "does nothing for you" is really ambiguous.

@people saying that the VCA isn't useful; again, there's never anything certain in mafia. A VCA is just as useful as looking at posts. If you don't like the opinions I've espoused of existing bandwagons, then replace them with your own.

I’m also concerned that Imp basically has ignored almost all of the reasons expressed for voting for him.

Yes, this is true. At this point, I see me managing to fight my way out of the lynch as very improbable. I mean, what an I supposed to say? Mafia killed ICE either because they figured out/knew that he was cop or to make me look like mafia. I can say ICE didn't have a guilty on me, that doesn't mean that other people will believe me... I could respond to the case, but I don't see any way to make a refutation that would actually convince people to lynch someone else. What swift quoted can be interpreted as rolefishing... there's no way I can make people not interpret it that way, even if it wasn't the intention.

Darth's quote of me in the middle of 729, I don't think that was the main reason I voted ICE, that was just (what I thought was) faulty reasoning I was pointing out.

VOTE: Setael. I feel right now like this is the vote most likely to be on scum. The way he's pushing on me by saying that ICE had a guilty on me also seems like something that scum could have planned at night (of course, that doesn't bear any weight until/unless I flip town). He also

completely

neglected to make any case on me, instead quoting ICE's, which I've already gone over... he's barely even justified his saying that ICE had a scum result on me.

I'm also gaining suspicion of Emp. Here's how I see the situation with Emp's mason claim:

Obviously, we have 2 choices. Either his partner claims, or his partner does not claim. There is a third choice of him claiming his partner for us, but we don't gain anything from that as far as I can tell. There are also 2 possibilities: Emp is either town or scum. And so I put together a nice table here:

Emp's alignment ---------- Partner claiming	town/real	scum/fake
claim	If one of them dies, we'll have a confirmed townie tomorrow. If one of them is lynched, we'll have a confirmed townie tonight, who would likely die. A connection is established between the two which will help with scumhunting (either both or neither are mafia). The mafia are able to kill a mason tonight, if they want to (assuming no protection).	If one of them is lynched, we'd have confirmed mafia tomorrow. If neither is, there's a connection established between the two which will help with scumhunting (either both or neither are mafia).
don't claim	The partner would claim tomorrow. If the partner is lynched today, without having claimed, people may be unlikely to believe their claim. The partner may die tonight through coincedence, confirming Emp as town for tomorrow. The mafia are able to kill a mason tonight, if they want to (assuming no protection).	We lose out on the opportunity to draw a connection between Emp and a scumbuddy of his. We gain absolutely nothing. If we lead a lynch on a mafia member, ANY mafia member other than Empking, they get a free mason claim because we don't know Emp's partner if he's real. The scum get an extra night to decide who/whether to fake.

Bear in mind, this is assuming someone actually does claim to be Emp's mason partner. If no one does, we ask him to state his partner, and if they don't confirm him, we instantly lynch him. Clearly, if Empking is mafia, we want someone to claim to be his partner (or force someone to). If he's town, we actually lose very little if anything. Sure, the mafia can avoid Emp's mason partner if they want to and kill them if they want to. On the other hand, we gain valuable, absolute information about two players' alignments relative to each other. We can then examine the claim to see if it looks legitimate, and go from there.

Therefore,

I'd strongly like Emp's mason partner to claim, and I'd like other peoples' (particularly Emp's) opinion on this. The best way to do it would be a popcorn-style or whoever happens to post first claiming whether or not you are Emp's mason partner.

Of course, opinions on the plan are important before executing the plan. Furthermore: Empking. You have stated that it isn't the protown thing to do, having your partner claim. Well why not? Did you examine the pros and cons of it? If so, what is the reason that you don't think they should claim? Zdenek already asked you to elaborate on this, and you basically just shrugged him off.

By the way, there's no guarantee that the mafia would kill Emp even if he is a mason. It's perfectly likely/possible that they would

[implosion]

Damn... I put a lot of work into that table, Empking...

Not gonna put him at L-1 just yet in case of self-hammering. We still have time.

First of all, it was clearly prompted by the wagon on him at the time

This is pretty much all the evidence necessary... if you're scummy enough to get the first giant bandwagon on day one, it doesn't exactly make sense to think that you can draw the nightkill by claiming mason, a role that only helps the town by confirming you as town to one other person.

@neko - the "reasoning" behind the number of scum per wagon is psychologically what I think scum would do when faced with each bandwagon. If, for example, there's a fairly large-sized wagon on town with a number of townies on it, I'd expect some scum to be on it too depending on how big the wagon is.

[implosion]

implosion: Your VCA was impressive, but contained a lot of assumptions you haven't explained. Why did you think there was one scum between Empking and Setael at the 7th VC? Why are you convinced that every wagon town must have mafia on it? Why don't you feel this is much information to be gained from Saint's wagon before he self-lynched?

Because if it was a wagon of 3 townies on a townie a scum member would likely jump on; I'm not convinced, again, this is just what I see as more likely; I'm saying that Saint robbed us of the information of who would have hammered him.

[implosion]

So the doc claimed mason.

That makes perfect sense.

Anyway... KTS is my biggest townread, followed by DarthYoshi. It's probably lylo, so no one vote yet (obviously).

[implosion]

KTS is my biggest townread,

Really? Please explain this.

I thought he looked like town when he was arguing with Empking. He had logic and didn't look like mafia.

[implosion]

My read on KTS might be partially gut... he just seemed to be making sense when arguing with Empking. It also might just be that Emp was making no sense and KTS looked good by comparison.

[implosion]

...
There is probably one mafia in each of {KTS, [

nameless

], Darth Yoshi}
...

...
Anyway... KTS is my biggest townread, followed by DarthYoshi. It's probably lylo, so no one vote yet (obviously).

...So, what prompted that change implosion?

When I say the two of you are townreads, it's based on your actions. The VCA was based solely on votes. They do, apparently, conflict. So one must be wrong. :\.

@Implosion--I'd still like to hear what you think of KTS's play on D2/D3.

I don't really see anything of note, except for his having mostly pushed on people that we now know were townies (Saint, Emp, etc) but frankly he can't be blamed for that seeing as the things he was pushing on were perfectly legitimate to push on.

[implosion]

Massclaim is good at this stage. I'm fine with popcorn.

Something about Setael's voting Darth gives me townvibes - probably the fact that several others are calling him town. I think it would be really strange for scum, in such a great position, to push on someone that a lot of other people are calling town. I agree that Setael shouldn't have voted yet, but I think it's a towntell.

[implosion]

Implosion, that argument is terribly flawed. Lylo is not an easy position for anyone, and I think the scum's position is being highly overestimated, which could be very detrimental to us if we start making too many assumptions. Nothing can be taken for granted at this point.

How is it being overestimated? Assuming 3 mafia, they only need one mislynch to win. On the other hand, the town needs 3 correct lynches in a row to win. Even more than that, we've lost the cop and the doctor without gaining anything useful from either.

Look at it this way: which makes more logical sense from a mafia point of view in this situation? Pushing on an easy mislynch or pushing on someone many people think is town? If they only need one mislynch to win, they have no need to push on difficult targets.

[implosion]

I believe the vig claim, actually. The breadcrumb looks legitimate, and in my opinion the stranger a claim is the more likely it is to be true (that is, I don't see him making up this much stuff as scum). I'm a bit irked that he (claims to have) tried to shoot me last night, which (if he's real) means that the scum would probably have won the game if they didn't roleblock him. His reasons for not shooting the first couple nights also make sense.

Swift can come up with the convenient excuse of being roleblocked now that he knows, with a doc and cop having flipped, that there is almost certainly a scum roleblocker in the setup.

This phrasing looks scummy. You seem to imply both that Swift is town and that Swift is mafia in the same sentence; scum by saying that he can come up with a convenient excuse, and town by saying that he knows "almost certainly" that there's a scum roleblocker. It would make sense if you inserted "from town's view" before there being a scum roleblocker, but you didn't.

Implosion, while it does only take one mislynch for us to lose, I also have the feeling that it will really only take one correct lynch to break the game open and win, and I would guess the scum feel the same way. With an entire game's worth of interactions to analyse, the scum have just as much riding on this as town and I don't think we can be sure how they're going to play this.

This honestly looks like argumentation for the sake of argumentation. Assuming 3 mafia, the town has the entire game 100% riding on today's lynch. All the mafia has riding on today's lynch is a possibility of instantly winning the game, or a possibility of having two more chances of instantly winning the game. The "breaking the game open" thing frankly looks like grasping at straws to counter what I'm saying, when what I'm saying is clearly right...

So, my reads are changing. I (for some reason) really see Setael's early vote as a large towntell. I believe Swift's claim. I'd guess the scumteam is neko/Darth/one of KTS|Zdenek, at this point.

Also, why would you write out your reasoning to the mod like that? (Anyone else here ever done that? I would just submit a kill.) Also, is that normal to bold a kill when submitted via PM? I've never done that either.

I've had actions bolded in PMs I've received before. And although I've never actually done it, I could understand putting reasoning in a role PM. I also think that it would be a really weird thing for scum to make up.

[implosion]

I'm going to be

V/LA from tomorrow (Monday) until Friday.

I'm going to be in California. I'm not sure if I'm going to have access at all (I PROBABLY will, but no guarantee) and even if I have access it's unlikely I'll be able to post frequently.

[implosion]

I'd guess the scumteam is neko/Darth/one of KTS|Zdenek, at this point.

.