Mini 1166: Town Hall Mafia (GAME OVER)

[EmpTyger]

/confirm

[EmpTyger]

Random

vote: th3kuzinator

[EmpTyger]

This C-Worl/th3kuzinator interaction feels contrived. I'm liking my vote.

th3kuzinator:
Out of curiosity, which site?

[EmpTyger]

I call C-W's posting "contrived".
iama says he has a townread on C-W.
So which read does C-W ask about, and which does he ignore?
I still like my theory.   

iama:
I want to hear more about this town read too. 1 day later, C-W/Kuz still feels just as contrived.

sAb:
Fishy beat me to it. What do you mean by "justified"?

Re lying:
A slight addendum to what Fishy said:
don't gambit unless you have a really, really good reason

and you accept that your lie will probably be discovered and you will probably be lynched

. 
All this talk about "town gambits" overlooks that there's another alignment which can gambit. Because mafia gets far more out of lying than town does.  

(Or to put it simply: if you have to ask, the answer is, "don't").

[EmpTyger]

Hm. Okay. 

Unvote: th3kuzinator. Vote: Rhinox

 

[EmpTyger]

C-Worl:
My post-random reason for voting kuz was based on a theory that he and you were guilty together. If you're innocent, that counters that theory.
(However, since then... iama has made a good point about [60].)


Fishy:
See above. Though if you're asking why Rhinox, because his one post went to twice as much effort to give excuses instead of contributions. Since then, I'm enough unimpressed with his posts to maintain my vote. To me, the jump onto kuz feels like simple opportunism. Plus the same issue that iama raises with kuz: the attempt at undermining a legit townread.


iama:
Actually, I'm leaning against Rhinox and kuz being mafia together. I don't see Rhinox's vote onto kuz as being a bus. If Rhinox were going to bus this early, then why first the stall with [54]?


kuz:

Why you both are assuming malicious intent behind the question is beyond me.

Well, why *shouldn't* they assume malicious intent? This is a game of mafia, after all.
And why should "it's my playstyle" give you carte blanche to do whatever-you-want?

[EmpTyger]

kuz:
At this site of yours, they know all about such terms as "LAL" and "chainsaw defending", but they don't cover something as basic as a claim at lynch-1?

I'm ready to shift my vote back to you.


Fishy:

I don't like this much, particularly in the context of kuz being under attack. The first sentence is just nonsense - of course everyone should assume the

possibility

of malicious intent, but assuming malicious intent to make your case is arguing from your conclusions.

That was kuz's term, not mine. I wanted to hear kuz's explanation of what he meant in saying it rather than argue the semantics of "assume" vs "conclude".

For the second, I don't see where kuz has remotely used his playstyle to explain or excuse anything.

Right here:

<snip>
VOTE: th3kuzinator

He seems upset that I have identified a townie so soon.

Why do people keep assuming I am upset? lol. Apparently any type of aggressive posting is taken as a sign of being butthurt. It's my playstyle, get over it.

ThA:

Question: what does scum have to gain by claiming to have a town-read on someone? Oppose that to: what does a scum have to gain in a situation where no one has town-reads on anyone else?

That's only the question if you're asking "is iama mafia?" 

Also, you should be considering the countersituation of what a protown might do. There are legitimate reasons to oppose a townread, although I don't think they apply in this instance.


MK:

Moreover, nobody seems to have anything to say about Emp's opinion on the confrontation between C and Kuz being contrived, and rather than that, have said "I agree." This is immediately followed by a vote. It's echoing described within content, and I'm wary of over defensiveness being the prime reason to lynch someone. It seems much too weak of a case.

I'm not sure what you're saying here. Can you rephrase?

[EmpTyger]

Fishy:
Why are you only considering cases where kuz is innocent?
And, why, of all those who've suspected kuz, are you giving Rhinox a pass?


C-W:
Sorry, not ready to compromise, not while Rhinox is being this slimy. (Most recently: voting for ThA because ThA *agreed* with the case Rhinox was making.)    
Though while we're waiting, if you assume kuz to be guilty, who do you think his partner might be?


MK:
I get what happened to you, but that's not what happened here to kuz. Reread his back-and-forth with C-W, especially this: 

Tis cool though. I'll just wait to see who comes to chainsaw you.

From the beginning, kuz is *expecting* to get attacked. His "defensiveness" starts before the bandwagon- it's not a reaction to it. In fact, once the bandwagon against him starts, the opposite happens: he underreacts, if anything.

I don't think kuz is an innocent newbie. I think he's either guilty or he's trying some kind of stupid gambit.

[EmpTyger]

[I'm going to be a little busier irl next week, but do not expect to need to be replaced.]


I think a lot of people- on both sides of the argument- are missing the point.
The issue is not what the correct reaction in an abstract lynch-1 situation.
The issue is how *kuz* reacted in *this game*.

Don't just narrowly look at the single reaction. Compare that to how kuz has acted elsewhere in the game. Kuz had absolutely no problem responding to C-Worl's initial accusation. He's talking about LAL and chainsawing. He is not a newbie. Let me repeat that:

Kuz is not a newbie. Stop shielding him with that excuse.

(The only way I'll believe he's a newbie is if he's mafia, and his partner overstuffed his ears with too much advice.)

I'm very tempted to give up on Rhinox and give kuz a 24 hour post-or-be-voted ultimatum. Let's see how I feel tomorrow.


Rhinox:
You said that kuz was suspicious and voted him.
Other players said that kuz was suspicious and voted him.
You said that the kuz-voters were suspicious, because of how they were voting kuz.

I don't think I've ever seen an innocent player get upset that their suspect is being voted.


sAb:
In the future, could you make it clearer who is being referring to? Posts like [102] are hard to follow.

[EmpTyger]

Sorry all, didn't get a usual e-mail notification about the prod. Sorry- am hosting out-of-town people this week, and when not hosting am at work, and am otherwise sleeping. This is just a quick commuting post.


Archaist:
You are badly ignoring context. And getting several facts wrong in the process. I can't quote effectively on iPhone, otherwise I would spell this out in black and white.

iama says he has a townread.
I asked iama for the reasoning behind it.
(Kuz, incidentally, initially ignored it)
iama gives his reasoning.
I thought iama's reasoning sound.

That is very, very different from-

Kuz initially ignored the townread.
iama explains it (in response to others' asking).
Kuz tries to discredit the reasoning.

And that is very different from Rhinox.
And also very different from Fishy's reaction who you left off your list. Interestingly, my reaction is very similar to C-Worl's- who you also left off.

Similarly, re "opportunism"- you are equating me and Rhinox, how? Because I jumped onto a 0-member Rhinox bandwagon, at the precise moment when 0 other players were attacking Rhinox?
The only way that I see for you to label what I did as "opportunism" is if you think Rhinox was genuinely suspicious. (Which in your latest post you do think so.)
So why did you attack me multiple times over it, and then only several posts afterwards say that Rhinox is suspicious?


Rhinox:
It's not the what of the micro, it's the how of the macro.
When you placed your vote on kuz, what were you hoping would happen? What were you expecting would happen?
Other people voted kuz. And you got upset that *your* suspect was being pressured to lynch-1. If there was enough evidence for you to vote, there wasn't enough for additional reasons?


Fishy:
Could you be more specific about what haven't you liked about me regarding kuz?

[EmpTyger]

Archaist:
You don't see any difference between "asking what the reason for something is" and "arguing that those reasons are faulty"?

And what did you mean in your very first post:

To me, the jump onto kuz feels like simple opportunism.

Kind of like your #55, a blatant attempt to start a wagon... for coming in a bit late?

if you weren't saying me and Rhinox were equal in any way?


Fishy:
What is your theory to explain kuz's behavior?

Your sole argument for this seems to be that kuz isn't a newbie to mafia, and therefore his site must have a meta of "claim at L-1" - which even this site only arguably has (I certainly wouldn't have claimed in kuz's position, and I'm sure I'm not alone there).

That's not my point at all, so let me clarify. It's not that kuz should have (or shouldn't have) claimed at lynch-1.

This is a player who claims that he is "known throughout [his site] for doing town gambits", on a site which "champions the 'townies never lie' type schpiel".

If he's heard of the terms "chainsaw defense" and he's familiar enough with LAL to refer to it only by its initials, I can't believe that he hasn't been exposed to, at the bare minimum, claim at lynch-1.

So the point isn't what the proper thing to do is at lynch-1 is.
The point is, why didn't kuz react to being at lynch-1?
Because I cannot in any way believe that a player who again is "known throughout [his site] for doing town gambits", on a site which "champions the 'townies never lie' type schpiel" is so unfamiliar with being bandwagoned to lynch-1 that too many players in this game are labeling him a newbie over it.

As for:

"Why shouldn't people assume malicious intent - it's a game of mafia?" - which is a reason to say that absolutely anything is scummy.

As I've already explained, this is directly in response to kuz's saying that we "shouldn't assume malicious intent". Ignoring my motivation, are you interpreting kuz as saying that absolutely nothing is scummy?

But yes, I was putting pressure on kuz, even if I wasn't voting him. Because I have 2 possible theories as to his alignment, and I wanted to narrow that down. That's not suspicious. And, if it is... what did you mean, then, with your last sentence in [74]?


Rhinox:
What specifically was it in Kuz's response which gave you the townish feeling about him?


C-Worl:
Ironically, I was just about to say I was ready to compromise on Archaist. What are you seeing to give you pause?


iama:
Assuming Archaist to be guilty, who do you think his partner might be?

[EmpTyger]

Unvote: Rhinox

Sorry for the doublepost, but just noticed something I want to think through.

[EmpTyger]

My thought was this: iama gave out some very good reads at the onset with some careful analysis, but lately he has seemed complacent. Which seems off to me.


iama:
How did you process-of-eliminate sAb?


Fishy:
I'm tempted to ask, well, how do you pressure suspicious lurking players. Though I actually think I'm satisfied enough by where you're coming from.


Archaist:
Honestly, I'm too tired irl to explain right now why I think you're just saying things for the sake of saying things.

[EmpTyger]

Archaist hasn't really playing like a doomed mafia with an approaching deadline.

Vote: Mitsuru Kijiro

ThAd:
Why sAb?

[EmpTyger]

sAb:
Why do you say that C-Worl would rather lynch MK than Archaist?


C-Worl:
Try again, this time without presuming a 3-person mafia.
Also, anything to declare for if Archaist flips town down the line?

[EmpTyger]

ThAd:
Okay, but then why C-Worl?  (And why not Rhinox?  Does that mean you like his reasoning?)

[EmpTyger]

I hate to say this so close to deadline, but I'm not happy with my MK vote. He's raising good points, yet getting attacked for it.

Unvote: Mitsuru Kirijo

C-Worl:
You're not even acknowledging the problems with your [216].


Rhinox:

Why would someone on my wagon be scum?

Have you ever heard of... bussing?

No. MK is absolutely right here. C-Worl does need to explain this. because his allcapped "Archaist/MK/Tyger mafia" theory has some obvious holes he is still not acknowledging. And C-Worl clearly did not intend bussing, not when his supposed point was that we were suspicious for *not* bussing our alleged comafia Archaist.


ThAd:

I see what you did there mitsuro. Asking questions about other people to deflect attention off of yourself.

That's not suspicious, that's not even close to what's happening, and MK is asking good questions.


iama:
C-Worl is looking really bad, yet I'm having trouble seeing him partnered with anyone besides you. Yet I could see you partnered with a lot of people.


MK:
So are you suspicious of iama?


Archaist:
Sell me on C-Worl. Or not-you, alternatively.

[EmpTyger]

C-Worl and Rhinox are proposing that I'm mafia because I voted MK (who they are saying is mafia) instead of voting Archaist (who would have to be town). 
How about Occam's razor- the guy pushing a lynch on Archaist despite saying the above is the guilty one?
And with him, Rhinox who meanwhile is arguing that mafia would be doing the exact thing he himself is doing.
Especially after C-Worl declares Rhinox town for voting MK right after declaring I'm obvscum for voting MK.

I made a mistake letting up on Rhinox. It won't happen tomorrow. If there weren't less than 36 hours left and 0 current voters, it wouldn't have happened today. As it is:

Vote: C-Worl

(And iama's initial read on C-Worl is nullified. Because at this point C-Worl's been explicitly told that there is no 3-person mafia, yet he's nevertheless spouting a theory of a Archaist/MK/Tyger mafia. If he can feign ignorance of the size of the antitown group now, he could at the start of the game just as easily.)

[EmpTyger]

ThAd:
Yes, I messed up by backing off of Archaist in [213]. I concede that this was suspicious and I deserve some scrutiny for it. But *not* for the reason you listed. Certainly not when I spent most of yesterday being accused of pushing the kuz/Archaist bandwagon. Now you're accusing me of being kuz/Archaist's partner for trying to push his mislynch, yet in a way that wouldn't earn me towncred...?

In any case, I counter whatever suspicion I incurred by pointing out that I derailed the MK counterwagon. As for the rest of your suspect list-
Why would sAb post [254] if he were Archaist's comafia?
Why aren't Fishy and Rhinox on your suspect list?


Rhinox:

Vote: Rhinox

Just for fun, what's your explanation for that fake lynching vote?

Leftover from yesterday:
The difference is that I decided that MK was innocent because of what *MK* did.
You decided that kuz was innocent when other players voted kuz.

"Rhinox who meanwhile is arguing that mafia would be doing the exact thing he himself is doing." - I don't follow

It's in reference to this:

Emp unvoting as soon as Mits wagon gets a little momentum is like... *twitch*. Kinda makes me rethink because I believe scum empking would keep bussing at this point if thats really whats going on rather than unvoting, because if mits really is scum, once he flips this would look really bad for emp.

At that point, *you* thought MK was mafia.
So the one who "kept bussing" MK was... you.


iama:
Leftover from yesterday: I saw the logic behind process-of-eliminating MK. Couldn't see any reason to process-of-eliminate sAb.
(And for the record, I'm over that weird feeling I had yesterday regarding you. Sorry)

[EmpTyger]

For the next month, my non-iPhone access will be severely limited.


ThAd:
If sAb's mafia trying to be thought town: he hammers Archaist himself. 
If sAb's mafia trying to save his comafia: he keeps quiet or plays along with Rhinox for a few hours until the no-lynch hits.
sAb's [254] only makes sense if he's town.  It doesn't provide any advantage to him if he's mafia.  It only alerts the town to the fact that Rhinox didn't really lynch Archaist, which enables someone else to lynch Archaist.  Which is the absolute last thing the mafia would want at that point.

Meta question: would you say you normally bus or try to avoid it?

Both & neither. I feel my play is context-specific more than anything.
Honestly, I've only been town & SK since returning to the site, and of the 2-person mafias I remember off the top of my head before then, a pattern doesn't occur to me.  


Rhinox:

How exactly was I doing exactly what I thought you as mits's scum partner would do? because I don't see it.

No, you clearly don't...

After you unvoted, I hypothesized that IF you really were scum with mits as suspected, you wouldn't have unvoted right then.

At that moment you, who were voting MK, didn't unvote!


Fishy:
Which of {sAb, iama, ThAd} do you think could be mafia?    

[EmpTyger]

iama:
I don't follow the point about Rhinox, or are you just being devious?

In any case, it's no one besides Fishy or Rhinox, and we have at least 2 kills available, so, sure.

Unvote Rhinox, vote Fishythefish

[EmpTyger]

unvote: Fishythefish

, pending everyone checking in without incident post-Fishy's claim.


Fishy:

(because someone is going to hammer an L-1 wagon out of principle).

...and what if that wagon is misrepresented as not being a lynch-1 wagon?


iama:
Archaist was also uninterested in MK, when MK was the counterwagon.
I'm going to need to reread before I consider ThAd- and if I'm reevaluating him, I'm going to reevaluate you.  (And that won't happen until weekend at earliest.  Rereading on iPhone is hard.)

There are a lot of other factors that might have affected he nightkill: off the top of my head, ignorance of the second kill, protection concerns, powerrole hunting.  Why are you so certain that the reasoning you cited to clear Rhinox was the nightkill's motivation?   

[EmpTyger]

Vote: Rhinox

- no reason to wait, with everyone else checked in. 


Fishy:

Well, if they were convinced that it was a lynch already of course they wouldn't hammer. But this relies on Rhinox thinking everyone is silly enough to believe that without even checking, which seems implausible.

You do realize that, as implausible as it may be, that's what Rhinox had to believe for his *claimed* plan to work?

But, you bring up a good question: What *was* Archaist up to?

He wasn't flailing to fakeclaims or rebuttals or countersttacks.  He played incredibly passively.    
Maybe he was trying to lurk it out- but that does not make sense if his partner is pushing hard for a lynch.
(Unless this was a gambit to clear his bussing partner- but that doesn't really fit with kuz's disappearance, or, really, anything else they seemed to do.)
Maybe Archaist just didn't realize the threat he was under. But, again, that's hard to believe if his partner was attacking him as much as ThAd and iama were.


iama:
While I haven't reread ThAd or you yet, see my above to Fishy.  Honestly, I'd have an easier time believing sAb as mafia than someone who'd been attacking kuz/Archaist all day.

I don't see how the first is remotely relevant, and I don't believe Rhinox is the type to base his kills around power role speculation, especially in this situation.

Why are you certain he wouldn't, especially when deciding between several near-conformed innocents?

(And, was relevant in that the mafia couldn't know that MK wouldn't be around today.  He might have been expecting with C-Worl dead for attention to focus on me and MK, given C-Worl's last. Not saying that's what happened- just that there are other factors beyond the one you are so *certain* is the only one of why C-Worl was killed.)

[EmpTyger]

I really am expecting Rhinox to flip mafia.  But I don't see anything lost by a safety play of {sAb, ThAd, iama} claiming today.   


ThAd/iama:
Can either of you explain how kuz/Archaist's play makes sense with the other of you as partner?

[EmpTyger]

I'm serious about the safety play.  What do we lose if iama, ThAd, and sAb claim today?  If nothing, then... why don't we?


iama:
How about the straightforward theory that Archaist wasn't playing for a mislynch or for his own death- he was hoping for the no-lynch?  (Which is what threw me off D1.)  I don't see him doing any kind of positioning for a post-reveal.  Seems to me like he was lying low and being noncommittal and trying to squeak by.  Which would explain why he didn't vote MK or ThAd or make a strong push to any real candidate, much more cleanly than your theory of why-MK-but-not-ThAd.  (For that matter, that's another possible factor for the nightkill: C-Worl was the only player who Archaist made any real attempt against.)

Whereas with Rhinox, as just pointed out: he hopped onto both the ThAd and the MK counterwagons.  He only voted Archaist hours before deadline, only after your catch all but nailed Archaist's coffin.


Fishy:

Just for fun, what's your explanation for that fake lynching vote?

I've seen times where a player who thinks he is hammered reacts as town / as scum and the town gets a big clue into his alignment without actually hammering. Thats what I was going for.

Honestly, I do see where ThAd is coming from in [304], and I think ThAd's reaction is reasonable.  But as much as I don't get why iama is bending over backwards to consider anyone and everyone except Rhinox, I disagree with ThAd that iama is a possible suspect.  I just don't see why iama as mafia would have revealed that catch about Archaist right before deadline.  I'll still reread ThAd in full, when I get a chance.

[EmpTyger]

iama:
Because if the game continues after we lynch Rhinox, Fishy is going to shoot me in the face.


Fishy:
Right?

[EmpTyger]

Fishy:
You're ignoring an important piece of context:
Rhinoxscum is 8 hours from deadline, wagons split 3-3 scum-town, he's on the town wagon,

and iama *just* caught his comafia in a "catch of the game"-level contradiction

.

*That*'s the full context for Rhinox's fakehammer voteswitch.

[EmpTyger]

EBWODP:
Also, if Fishy plans to vigkill sAb (or whoever) instead of me, I should be safety play claiming today instead of sAb (or whoever).

[EmpTyger]

[strange, I thought I posted this yesterday]

ThAd:
Mafia roleblocker is not a worry: if they roleblock instead of kill, then we'd get another lynch in exchange for the lost vigkill. Town doesn't lose anything.
On the other hand, mafia godfather.  (Unlikely, considering reveals, but that's the point of a safety play.) 

I'll reread sAb to consider your "incompetent" theory after whenever I reread you.

Fishy:

Was it really that big a contradiction? I never really bothered to work it out, the hammer being the obvious move. Still, Rhinox could easily just not have posted without raising serious suspicion.

Read Rhinox's actual post! *He* quotes iama and says, "That actually is a good catch."  

But fine. Let's hypothetically say you lynch and vigkill me and sAb, in whatever order you want, and we're both innocent. Would you be in favor of Rhinox dying tomorrow?


sAb:
Likewise, if there's a Rhinox/ThAd/iama endgame, who would you be praying from beyond the grave that the town picks?


Rhinox:
You found a 3rd choice: Make it seem like you wanted Archaist to die while actually effecting a no-lynch. Best case C-Worl's attacks against me and MK carry. Worst case Archaist dies anyhow the next day buy there's one less lynch for the town.

[EmpTyger]

The *worst* thing we can do is no-lynch today. I offer myself as a better option than no-lynch.

Neither here nor there, but just looking at D2 play, Rhinox is lying low except to rebut attacks against himself. Everyone else to some degree is trying to argue for their top couple suspects.


sAb:
All nightkills (from vigilantes, mafia, whoever) happen simultaneously.
Why would you be afraid that ThAd would vote iama over Rhinox tomorrow, when he voted Rhinox over iama today?
I don't see anything wrong with ThAd's counterexplanation for [254].


iama:
I've reread ThAd and I don't see anything in his behavior.
I've reread kuz/Archaist and I don't see anything in their behavior.
(If all you have is that Archaist didn't vote ThAd- again, Archaist didn't vote MK. He laid low and played noncommittally. His treatment of ThAd aligned with his treatment of everyone except C-Worl, who was the nightkill.)

Make a ThAd case if you need people to check your logic. But, honestly, you don't need to persuade anyone about ThAd, because *you* will be the one casting the deciding vote tomorrow. (Despite what sAb is making me think twice about him by what he's purportedly worried about...)

With 5 days left, there are more pressing things to persuade people about: lynch someone today, and have tomorrow's options claim today.


Fishy:
Look, if you're not reading the context of D1 before making declarations, I'm done arguing with you. I'll spend my energy persuading iama and ThAd to stop bickering with each other and be the last 2 standing.

Here's the situation:
You're a confirmed innocent.
You effectively control 2 of the town's kills.
You want me and sAb dead.
You're near-singlehandedly going to leave the town in a position where there is a 3-person endgame {iama, ThAd, Rhinox}.
And you are doing everything in your power to shirk your responsibility to help the town resolve that.

So fine. Here's what's going to happen.
You will name who today's lynch will be.
You will name your target tonight.
You will demand claims from the other 3 players, the ones who will be around tomorrow if your 2 picks are wrong.
You (and the 2 you marked for death) will provide final input on which of the other 3 should die, to help the ones alive tomorrow.
Then we will lynch your 1st choice. If game continues:
Then you will kill your 2nd choice.
Then you will die. If game continues:
The survivors tomorrow will be in the best possible position to make the final determination.
And you can say you did everything in your power to help your side win.

[EmpTyger]

Fishy: 

Mafia roleblocker is not a worry: if they roleblock instead of kill, then we'd get another lynch in exchange for the lost vigkill. Town doesn't lose anything.
On the other hand, mafia godfather.  (Unlikely, considering reveals, but that's the point of a safety play.)

Again, mafia roleblocker is not a worry.

On me not reading; I assume you're referring to the last point, about Rhinox going along with iam's catch. But that still just doesn't give Rhinoxscum motivation to bus. He didn't have to say "wow what a great catch, vote Arch". He could very easily have voted ThAd or noone at all. If Rhinox is scum he killed (or took a massive risk of killing) his only partner for a very limited amount of distancing power. Other than perhaps me he played the worst day 1 as scum of anyone in the game - ending up lynching his partner without a decent amount of compensation. He then shot simply the wrong person if he is scum - iam was a way better target. I prefer Rhinox to a no lynch, but I don't see him being scum.

I think I get the problem- Rhinox is a better player than you.

He realized it would be indefensible to follow iama's catch, hours before deadline, with anything other than a vote on Archaist.  And he realized doing nothing wasn't going to help any either.  He made these basic determinations, which you can't seem to see: that if he did anything else, Archaist would still die, and he'd have been completely exposed.   

Other than that, you're acting like Rhinox bussed his partner all D1 and would have had to have made some horrible misplay N1.
He took pressure off of Archaist, pushed alternatives every moment between post-randomvote up until iama's pre-deadline catch.
And N1 the nightkill was the only player Archaist attacked.  

What's utterly ridiculous is that you'd rather think iama or ThAd mafia than Rhinox!  
You think Rhinox must be innocent because he had the option of staying quiet or switching wagons, but not iama, who made the actual catch? 
You think Rhinox must be innocent because he put Archaist at lynch-1 at the end of the day after trying every alternative else he could, but not ThAd, who put kuz at lynch-1 at the start of the day and pressured him throughout?  

You've had your chance. 

Unvote: Rhinox

I want you repeat the following 3 sentences in your next post, and put it in bold underline so there's no doubt.

Rhinox, ThAd, iama: Claim in that order.
I want sAb dead today.
I will shoot EmpTyger tonight.

(and with any luck, you'll add a 4th: 
I want Rhinox dead tomorrow.)

You may even be right about sAb.  I don't care.  I'm not going to let you waste the town's opportunities.

[EmpTyger]

iama:
Then persuade Fishy to vigkill a different target.  Persuade him to vigkill Rhinox tonight.  Or even persuade him to lynch me today and vigkill sAb tonight, provided that you all promise to lynch Rhinox tomorrow if the game goes to 3-person endgame.  I don't care.  I just want there to be as few ways for Rhinox to slink away tomorrow, despite Fishy doing everything he can to keep Rhinox's options open.  I can't get through to him and I don't know what else I can try.


Fishy:
Even if there is a mafia roleblocker who can kill & block: it doesn't matter what you say.
And if there is a mafia roleblocker who cannot kill & roleblock: it doesn't matter what you say.
If there is a mafia godfather: it is better for the town if you say your target than if you don't say your target.
How is this so hard to understand?

There should be no uncertainty tomorrow about what you will have done tonight.
There should be no lynch before removing this uncertainty.
You have given no thought whatsoever to how this will play out if sAb is revealed as innocent.  
You are doing everything in your power to waste the town's opportunities.  There are 2 days left.  Quit it.

(And also, quit trying to divide the vote this close to deadline.  It's unhelpful.  We're lynching whoever *you* vote for.  There's no point to competing bandwagons.)


Rhinox:
What's the point of [354], other than to continue your slinking through D2?  You offer nothing constructive on the issue of the vigkill, nothing to identify who you think should be today's lynch, nothing about who the mafia are.  Just opinionless words.  Just like you've done all day, when you haven't been lurking.  Slink, slink, slink.

[EmpTyger]

Fishy:
If in 3 weeks I couldn't get you to listen, I'm not going to in 9 hours. (Especially when you are clearly incapable of basic analysis. 2v1 after a vigkill is equivalent to 4v1 without!) It's up to iama now; hopefully he's more reasonable. I wasted too much time on you.


iama:
Every thing you said about ThAd is more true about Rhinox.

* Rhinox put an early vote on kuz, too, before ThAd. And he was the first off the wagon, encouraging those very wagon-dissolving reactions.
* ThAd temporarily abandoned the Archaist bandwagon to vote C-Worl? Fine. Rhinox abandoned the Archaist bandwagon to vote ThAd? Except ThAd returned to the Archaist bandwagon and pushed it to the end. Whereas Rhinox tried every other bandwagon he could before Archaist's lynch became inevitable and any other lynch impossible.
* You keep saying he could have easily obtained a ThAd lynch. In what window? MK was the main counterwagon. After I ended the MK wagon and Fishy voted ThAd, you posted your catch immediately afterward.
* I had the same reaction as ThAd today when you posted that. But again, compare what ThAd did D2 to what Rhinox did D2. ThAd considered suspects and tried to help the town. Rhinox has down nothing, lying so low he's flat- you even called it "pointless fearmongering".


sAb:
I think Rhinox is mafia. But I don't care if he's today's lynch, so long as he's killed either today, tonight, or tomorrow. Which won't happen if Fishy wants you and me dead, and iama wants you and ThAd dead.

If you can post *anything* to help persuade the others after you're dead, please, please do so before end-of-day.

[EmpTyger]

Massclaim?

[EmpTyger]

iama:
You set the order and go last?

[EmpTyger]

Vanilla.

[EmpTyger]

I think there will be more value in an extra protown voice than in a WIFOM opportunity.

iama:
At end of D2 you were thinking ThAd. Has this changed?

ThAd:
At end of D2 you were thinking Rhinox. Has this changed?

Rhinox:
At end of D2 you were thinking me or ThAd. (Really, you weren't thinking anything, but I'll be generous with [350]).
What changed about iama?

[EmpTyger]

ThAd:
The most logical thing to do would be to lynch Rhinox, who suddenly has decided that iama could be mafia, but won't explain how, or even why he's now saying that.
Even though the other 3 of us have each been narrowing our suspects lists down to our top suspect, he's widening it to everyone, without providing any reasons, any arguments, any analysis for why he's doing that. Just a denial to defend himself, without any effort to try to narrow that suspect list. (Just like all of D2.)

That's not a protown with no margin of error left. That's an antitown stalling because he's not yet sure which mislynch to go for.

I'm giving iama time for his reread.

[EmpTyger]

iama:
(Do you even need me to respond to this?)

His "dangling the carrot" was him behaving suspiciously.  And yeah I'm going to bite into that.  Hard.

His "nothing I've said implies I no longer think iama is least likely to be scum, only that he's not the obvious nk tonight" is false:

I don't think anyone is clear-cut obvtown

so IMO the nk would help me make a better lynch choice.

His "not seeming interested in actually making sure I'm interpreting a situation correctly" is false (in fact, the one who wasn't interested in clarification is Rhinox):

Rhinox:
At end of D2 you were thinking me or ThAd. (Really you weren't thinking anything, but I'll be generous with [350]).
What changed about iama?

And despite his after-the-fact explanation that this was purportedly a clever bit of trap-laying- it doesn't fit with the rest of his behavior today.

[EmpTyger]

iama:
Really, do you still need me to respond to this?


Rhinox:
At end of D2 you were vaguely saying ThAd or me.
At the start of D3 you were vaguely saying anyone (ThAd or me or iama).
When I directly asked, you won't clarify.
When iama directly asked, you get evasive and try to disavow the entire thing.    
I stand by my

mis

representation of your actions.

I also stand by my

mis

representation of your play as OMGUSy games which seem designed to let you weasel out of accusations on technicalities, rather than an attempt to clear up some alleged uncertainty you claim you have about who the last mafia is.

do me a favor and go through my posts and point out where I ever called iam town. Now, also explain how me saying essentially "iam is not obv-town" today in any way means I think he's more likely to be scum than you or thAd, or that my read on iam at all changed. Why you're at it, why don't you go ahead and summarize everything you've seen that makes me scum, I'd love to draw attention to the rest of your misreps again.

Are you for real?  Or else what...?
You'll vote me?
You'll accuse me of being mafia?
You'll offer no explanation for how I allegedly misrepresented you today?
You'll evade iama's questions which are poking holes into your entire premise, in lieu of tossing out unsupported  accusations against me?

You want to focus attention to these alleged misreps (because I suppose that's the best defense you can muster for your behavior)?  *You* do it.
I don't do favors for mafia. 
I try to *lynch* them.

(I especially don't do them the favor of writing their post-by-post analyses while I'm on an iPhone.  Good grief.)

[EmpTyger]

iama:
I'm not being rhetorical.  I really want to know whether I need to keep repeating myself if every time Rhinox says a new variation of "lalalala didn't happen misrepmisrepmisrep".  Rhinox's play today- and his account of his play- make no sense for a townsperson.  Where do you stand?


Rhinox:
I've already quoted it.  I've even highlit in blue.  Again:

I don't think anyone is clear-cut obvtown

You haven't said how you think that iama isn't clear-cut obvtown.  Despite being asked directly.

On the contrary.  You've denied it happened, in the face of my quoting how it did.  You've claimed you were baiting me.  You've tried some non sequitors about no-lynching.  You've dove headfirst into OMGUS with these "misrep" accusations against me.

But not a word about why you think iama isn't "clear-cut obvtown".
And that's why you're a weasel. 

[EmpTyger]

(Sorry, didn't see the post on the new page.  But that's not something I can fully reply to on iPhone anyhow.  For now, briefly-)  

Rhinox:
Nice try at a last-ditch defense of counterattacking your accuser.

But that doesn't provide an explanation for why you would start out today saying that no one was "clear-cut obvtown".

Or for your play. You've lain low; if you're not being attacked, you've played passively (except where kuz/Archaist was concerned, interestingly).  Unlike every other player in this game (except kuz and Archaist, again interestingly), who all put more energy into narrowing down their list and attacking their suspects.   

[EmpTyger]

[Posting for Beefster's sake.]

[EmpTyger]

iama/Rhinox:
Aside from criticizing the mod's judgment, I'm not really sure what to add.

[EmpTyger]

I may as well post what's sitting in my outbox, sent before I realized the mod had already carried out the replacement:

I understand your activity policy, but I urge you to not adhere to it so blindly. At this stage of the game players are often waiting on individuals to comment. For example: if I'm waiting for iama to evaluate ThAd's response to Rhinox, then until all 3 people have posted, which could theoretically take 6 days, I myself may not have anything to contribute (other than a null post solely to appease you, which I preemptively did). Moreover, again, it's a holiday weekend.

Before just robotically replacing players, please be actively assessing what affect your actions as mod are going to have on the game. Because replacing 2 players who are not really inactive, at lynch-or-lose a week before deadline- that's not going to cause the game to be more active, or the players to post more actively. On the contrary- it's going to stall the game out further, because those remaining are going to nothing have to say until 2 totally new players get caught up.

Rhinox [if you're still even reading]:
I would have you rejoin the game. It's clearly not personal: the mod tried this same stunt on me over Memorial Day, and on iama the same time as you. I can't imagine iama objecting to your rejoining based on his own near miss, and ThAd and jilynne have both expressed willingness to let you play it out. And if all 5 of us being in agreement isn't enough, I'm sure the listmod would step in to correct this.
(Mind you, I also understand your not wanting to rejoin, given the context within-game plus some very legitimate bitterness. But it'd be good to have you finish the game out, plus it'd be fairer to jilynne who should not have been subjected into this.)


iama/ThAd:
Strictly speaking, we should wait until this gets sorted out before decide how we're going to procede within-game. However, if we were ready to lynch Rhinox, I'm not sure it's fair to drag jilynne into the game. Though if you're not ready, I'm not sure what to do about that even if jilynne does step in. So... how do we want to procede?

[EmpTyger]

Well, guess that's that re Rhinox/jilynne. But expect me to say a lot about this postgame.

iama:
You're going to need to put a lot more cards on the table.

[EmpTyger]

iama:
So... what's your play and when is that going to happen, keeping in mind when deadline is? jilynne is desperate for skewering, and I'm not comfortable giving you much more than 24 hours to let you play this out on your own schedule, especially after the futility of yesterday's last minute.

[EmpTyger]

iama:
You're ignoring how Rhinox and now jilynne is spending their energy avoiding their lynch instead of finding mafia.
Read jilynne's [432-433] and tell me how you believe a word from her.


In the meantime, your cards.
Card 1:
This contradicts your theory that ThAd was deliberately bussing kuz. [see "card 3"]
On the other hand, whose attitude is the only one which also changes in response to kuz's attitude changing?
Rhinox's.

I happen to think that the most likely explanation for this mood change isn't that he got a ThAd vote, but that he got a lynch-1 vote. He's being pressured to claim. He can't be sarcastically dismissive any more, because he's under real pressure. Whatever he was trying to accomplish (perhaps being the stereotypical newbie bandwagon that gets early votes but dissolves when it "forms too quickly", but that may be giving him too much credit), it didn't work, and with his plan having failed he had no further interest in playing.

Also, there isn't some clear dichotomy of pattern of reactions between ThAd and not-ThAd. You're overlooking his reaction to me, for instance.


Card 2:
*I* had the same reaction to C-Worl that ThAd had.
On the other hand, while we were all reexamining each other, Rhinox laid low. D2, instead of trying to figure out who was guilty, his interest was in avoiding the lynch.


Card 3:
Quickly looking through the linked game- I don't think that's necessarily conclusive of anything: the mafia got a bonus daykill if they bussed each other. Moreover, ThAd coordinated the bussing pregame with his partners, which contradicts what you are assuming happened for your "card 1".
(And unless your point is that ThAd as town wouldn't lynch mafia D1... so what?)


Card 4:
Again, I had the same reaction as ThAd when you did that. I may have gone about it more subtly, certainly. But my [276] was probing why you assigned the kills, and I definitely reread you before him. Your play D2 was troubling, and it took reviewing D1 to put me at ease.


Card 5:
Still no. I mentioned several alternatives D2, but there's most prominently the fact that C-Worl was the only one who Archaist attacked.


Card 6:
Still no. It's a point in ThAd's favor that Archaist treated ThAd and MK the same.
Or since you seem to like speculative theories- Archaist's comafia Rhinox just switched his vote to MK. Archaist was distancing himself from his partner by automatically taking the opposite side. That's why Archaist was commenting on only MK.


Card 7:
Still no. Rhinox could not have done so. Here's the sequence of events.

[226] Rhinox, who had been voting ThAd, unvotes ThAd and votes MK. Archaist 3, MK 3, ThAd 2, C-Worl 1.
[229] C-Worl attacks MK
[231] Fishy attacks MK
[233] ThAd attacks MK
[235] EmpTyger unvotes and defends MK. Archaist 3, MK 2, ThAd 2, C-Worl 1.
[236] Rhinox attacks MK and EmpTyger
[237] C-Worl attacks MK
[240] C-Worl calls Rhinox town.
[243] EmpTyger attacks C-Worl and Rhinox, voting C-Worl. Archaist 3, MK 2, ThAd 2, C-Worl 2.
[244] Archaist defends MK, attacks C-Worl.
[245] Rhinox attacks me and MK.

Through this point, MK has been the counterwagon to save Archaist. Rhinox can't switch a vote to ThAd without easing pressure on MK.

[246] Fishy defends Archaist, unvotes MK, votes ThAd. Archaist 3, ThAd 3, C-Worl 2, MK 1.
[249] iama attacks Archaist
[250] ThAd attacks MK.
[252] C-Worl calls [249] the "catch of the game"
[253] Rhinox to act...

This is what Fishy, short-sightedly only seeing at the 3-3 votecount, called the definite opportunity for Rhinox to try for a ThAd lynch. Like a lot of things, Fishy was wrong.

Let's say, hypothetically, that Rhinox did so.
He would have to ignore what was *just* called a "catch of the game".
He would have to vote ThAd, who had just defended Rhinox's position about MK.
But setting those factors aside, even if he does place a 4th vote- who was there to put a 5th vote on ThAd at that point?

Not ThAd, obviously.
Not sAb, MK, or Fishy- they're already voting ThAd.
Not C-Worl or iama- not after they said that about the catch.
Not me- not unless you think that Rhinox would believe that I would ignore iama's catch to follow Rhinox when I was currently arguing a C-Worl/Rhinox theory, had been after Rhinox most of the day, and had vowed to not let up on him D2.
So that left only Archaist.

So best case, Rhinox/Archaist speedlynch ThAd immediately following the "catch of the game" against Archaist, leaving them both hopelessly exposed the following day.
Worst case, they don't even get the speedlynch, with the very real possibility that one of sAb, Fishy, or MK decide to switch to Archaist, leaving Rhinox exposed for going against the catch.

[EmpTyger]

jilynne:
You're not trying to find mafia. You're trying to get people to play WIFOM with you.

I agree with iama that TheAdmiral is scum. I don't think iama is scum, because if he was, he'd find it easier to just go with the flow and get me lynched.

I don't like gambling with 50% chances though. I'd like to vote NoLynch, until I find something that justifies (in my mind) whether Emp is town or scum.

I'd vote for TheAdmiral or EmpTyger right now. (Still not sure which. Probably TheAdmiral.)

If Iama died, I'd vote for TheAdmiral.

If TheAdmiral died, I'd vote for Iama.

If EmpTyger died, I'd vote for Iama.

This may make tomorrow a little bit WIFOM-y...but I think this is the best strategy at the moment.

You say that the mafia is either me or ThAd.
But if either one of us die, you say that your next choice is *iama*.

You say that you're looking for some reason to justify an alignment for me.
Yet you don't list a single scenario in which you'd vote me.

You've only provided 1 reason to support anything you've said: a reason for why you think iama is innocent.
And despite that, you say that if iama's still alive tomorrow, you will vote him.


ThAd:
Interrupting my own assault, why don't you have a vote down?

[EmpTyger]

iama:

Emp, just because C-Worl called it the 'catch of the game' doesn't mean it actually was. You appear to have completely ignored a major point of card 7; it was not the catch of the game, it was a fairly obviously flawed argument.

Just because *you* say that 2 months later doesn't mean that *Rhinox* didn't see it as damning at the time. You appear to have completely ignored the actual context in trying to make your card 7; Rhinox himself said "That actually is a good catch." So he obviously didn't think that the rest of the players would see it as a flawed argument.

Not C-Worl or iama- not after they said that about the catch.

I said no such thing, and even if I had, Rhinox voting ThAd that close to deadline would have forced us into a situation where the only options were ThAd or No Lynch, a situation in which any sensible town player would hammer ThAd, regardless of their opinions.

This isn't even close to what happened.
First of all, despite your vague "sensible town player", there's still (as I just showed) no viable 5th voter that doesn't leave Rhinox worse off. Again, I don't care what you are trying to insist now about yourself, without any evidence. I'm talking about from *Rhinox*'s point-of-view at the time. From his perspective, there's not a single shred of evidence for him to think there's any chance of you suddenly abandoning a still-viable Archaist lynch to follow him to ThAd. Not after your attacks against Archaist, not after your [249], not after stating that Archaist's partner by process-of-elimination was either Rhinox or me, not after even just repeating how you had "declared C-worl and ThAd to be town".

And there isn't a shred of evidence for Rhinox to think that Archaist wouldn't be considered a viable lynch without Rhinox's vote. Archaist is at lynch-2 and there are 4 players (sAb, Fishy, MK, and myself) yet to post after your [249] and C-Worl declaring it the "catch of the game". All it takes is one of us to agree and Archaist is at lynch-1, and there's no reason why any of us would think it an "obviously flawed argument".

[Also, you're tripping up over yourself in your contorted effort to justify this case against ThAd. You just rebutted your own card 5, because if you were making "obviously flawed arguments" while C-Worl was doing the actual browbeating by calling it the "catch of the game", that kind of contradicts your point argument that there's no reason to nightkill C-Worl over you. Honestly, your recent revisionistly historical posts are doing a great job of further undermining card 4.]

I'd dare you to point to a single piece of evidence to support this fanciful interpretation of Rhinox's gamestate at the end of D1.
But after dawdling around while Fishy squandered our extra chances until it was too late to do anything about it D2, you dawdled around until it was too late for discussion D3.

VOTE: No Lynch

At this point I feel like it may have some benefit.

No, at this point you left us no other option.

[EmpTyger]

Interesting.

Those who wanted the no-lynch yesterday:
Now what do you want to do?

[EmpTyger]

iama:
I think you're going to laugh when you hear my answer (which I will give). But I think you want ThAd to answer first.

[EmpTyger]

ThAd/jilynne:
If it's not clear, the mod just torpedoed [461]. The gist of iama's post was a 3-part answer to my [460]...
1) asking the mod about the stalemate
2) asking you 2 (+ me if I wanted) to say who we would have killed last night if we were mafia
3) prepping himself for WIFOM

[EmpTyger]

ThAd:
(1) makes no sense. jilynne wouldn't have pushed the no-lynch yesterday if it painted her into a corner.
(2) makes perfect sense. Especially with our mod being so good at mindlessly counting out X hours and paying no heed to the contexts of gamestate or to individual circumstances.


iama:
ThAd beat me to the punchline, but this was my planned response:
If I were mafia, I would have killed someone last night.

So that's everyone. Since I don't believe you're going to be hearing from jilynne.

[EmpTyger]

Vote: jilynne1991

iama:
Thanks for offering the apology, but not completely necessary. The town's advantage is in discussion; it's *good* to talk out differences of opinions. It's *good* that you felt strongly enough about ThAd to exhaustively consider that possibility. Any frustration I had was from time elapsing without any discussion in return.

[EmpTyger]

Thanks all and mod for the game.


iama:
Guess it's my turn to offer you the apology. Sorry. The "it's *good* to talk out differences of opinions" part stands, though.


Fishy:
...though, I'm only accepting partial responsibility for the loss. I was definitely wrong about Rhinox over ThAd, but the town shouldn't have had only one bite at that apple.


ThAd:
I'm trying to find something even in retrospect that might have swung me the other way, but... every thing I can find that might incriminate you was worse for Rhinox/jilynne. It's definitely to iama's credit that he deduced the situation. The biggest place you really tripped up was that no-kill at the end. That backfires badly on you if jilynne doesn't massflake, because short of a really botched response from her D4, I wouldn't have bought her deliberately no-killing. Whereas I was prepared to believe she'd desperately kill iama as attempted WIFOM, especially the way she was posting D3. But you made up for the lapse with luck.

I do remember that game, and it made your lingering skepticism on me more plausible. I actually considered it a point in your favor that you didn't bring it up directly, since I figured you would have done so if you were trying to deliberately frame me. Very subtly played, especially after the D1 hole, in [almost] all regards.

And don't beat yourself too heavily over kuz leaving. In one of my early games I "lost" a newbie comafia in a way that I was much more directly responsible for. You did the best you could there. (Especially seeing as how this isn't a newbie game.)


kuz:
ThAd is wrong. Flaking into replacement doesn't earn you a win. Archaist gets credit here.


Archaist:
Bonus points for replacing in to a bad situation and making the most of it.


jilynne:
How come you didn't request replacement out of this game as part of your mass exodus? (If you're even still around to answer.)


Mod:
A good general principle is, if you've done something which makes the game less fun for every single player, you've probably done something wrong.
(The point of the game isn't to follow a ruleset; the ruleset is just a tool to help better frame gameplay. A mod shouldn't let the means of modding become the end.)