Return to Gambits (SK Win!)

[earworm]

VOTE: C-Worl

[earworm]

I'm sorry, but it seems to me that you are suggesting that you have info that makes C-Worl town. I'm not seeing anything in the provided pms that suggest that you could have info that way, so is this a meta read?

[earworm]

@CMAR: It's mainly because of the idea that you said that continuing down the path we were going would lead to claiming. So basically what Surye said.

[earworm]

VOTE: C-Worl

Curious as to why you dropped this vote

I like to start wagons in RVs

[earworm]

Like jilynne, I prefer being deliberate with my vote, even in RVS. However, I think there is enough interaction to be confident in my vote.

VOTE: earworm

because I disapprove of unjustified bandwagoning in RVS

. It's too easy for a scum to fly under the radar by casting a bandwagon vote on someone they know to not be scum and not have to come up with a convincing explanation.

Really.

You want justified bandwagons in RVs? If I had a justification it wouldn't be a RV.

/theoryrant
I like bandwagons in RVs because occasionally they provide enough pressure and/or spark discussion in a way to end RVs. My vote is much better used on someone who already has a vote, then just lay it down on someone who doesn't have any, or worse keep it in my pocket.
/endrant

[earworm]

Yeah that's the meta for iron. frustrating for people like me, but whatever

@cworl: instead of complaining about the lack of scumhunting, how about *gasp* do some scumhunting yourself?

[earworm]

@nocmen: perhaps because it's my own post, I'm just not seeing the WIFOM. Could you explain what you mean? thanks.

UNVOTE: C-Worl

Yeah, I'm getting town vibes from these posts. Not doing anything useful yet, but whatever.

VOTE: Sathoris

I think at this point there should be one scum on the CMAR wagon. I don't like Sathoris's reasoning for his vote, so my vote goes here.

[earworm]

@The Mask: why wait to place your vote on Surye? Couldn't you have just done it in your unvote post?

@Surye: Is there some particular reason you can't get a read on me?

[earworm]

@Surye: Sathoris's vote wasn't an RV. Look at it again. That's a "I think this playerslot has a high chance of being scum" vote.

@People not voting: VOTE. It helps us get a read on you. Please do it.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Cobblerfone

explanation for this vote will come in my next post. But first dinner.

[earworm]

Reasons why I voted Cobblerfone:

I don't particularly like this public rumination about CMAR's role.
I'm not liking

this

vote on Surye. Seems really reaching to me.
The fact that you said lynch cops gives my pause for concern also.

Answer to Cobblerfone's question:

The chances are with four scum and sixteen players that one scum was on the four person CMAR wagon. That's all.

Question to monk:

Reasons on your scum reads, please. I also would like the three people you are most convinced are town.

[earworm]

Answer to Cobblerfone's question:

The chances are with four scum and sixteen players that one scum was on the four person CMAR wagon. That's all.

Which one do you think is most likely then, from the 4 people on it?

It's still Sathoris.

[earworm]

earworm:

1. Out of all of the scum only the traitor would post something like that to communicate to their buddies who they thought was a good target. But CMAR was the leading wagon at the time so... I could've just jumped on with my actual half-belief that he's the traitor as an excuse. (A bit WIFOMy, sure. still sub-optimal play otherwise.)

2. I was voting on a lead with the purpose of continuing the conversation.

3. Well with three hypothetical cop-claims what would

you

do?

1. Your post smells of rolefish. That's why I didn't like it
2. It's mainly your reasoning. It's poorly thought out. All the info was there before you asked any questions if I remember.
3. 2 situations.

-1- we get a cop claim today. NO CC's. We lynch someone else and wait for tommorrow. ALL COPS SELF INVESTIGATE. We ask him his sanity. Ask if anybody wants to cc his sanity. If yes we keep our eyes on the two of them and continue to ask them for results. If the scum kills the cop, scum dies next day.

-2- we get a cop claim tomorrow or any other following day. at this point every cop should know their sanity. so thtey claim sanity. ask if anyone wants to cc sanity. continues same as before.

the only way we get 3 cops claiming at the same time is if the sk claims, which is highly unlikely.

[earworm]

DEITYKABUTO (same goes to Vezo): GET YOUR HEAD IN THE GAME. That is all.

the only way we get 3 cops claiming at the same time is if the sk claims, which is highly unlikely.

That was the whole point of Surye's hypothetical scenario. 3 cops, 2 vigs. You can't go around and turn it into something else. Speaking of which, how do you know only the Serial Killer would claim?

VOTE: earworm

And I'm saying that unless the SK claims we won't have 3 cops claim and therefore the problem is resolved. That's how you handle the situation. No lynching cops. You shoot down the hypothetical and propose a real solution.

SKs don't like to claim cops. It's too dangerous since they don't know the alignment of anyone else. I.E. It's too easy to mess up fake results.

Are you voting me because I said that only the SK would claim? If so you need to work on your reading comprehension.

[earworm]

>.<

...Maybe I'm not being clear enough.

I'm saying that mafia would be more likely than the SK to claim cop.

Which is true. The only way an SK to win is to survive to endgame. Claiming cop is a good way to reduce that chance to next too nil.

[earworm]

>.<

...Maybe I'm not being clear enough.

I'm saying that mafia would be more likely than the SK to claim cop.

Which is true. The only way an SK to win is to survive to endgame. Claiming cop is a good way to reduce that chance to next too nil.

If you were clear, you're now being contradicting. Now scum would be more likely?

Show me where I have contradicted myself and how.

[earworm]

Okay, so there are 2 cops. Both would claim cop if it was made today, which the MC isn't happening. However, you at first said the only way for a third claim(fake claim) would be the chance that the SK claims cop. And now you're saying that mafia would be more likely to claim than the sk? Which is it? That's the contradiction.

*facepalm*

did you even READ my post?

-1- we get a cop claim today. NO CC's. We lynch someone else and wait for tommorrow. ALL COPS SELF INVESTIGATE. We ask him his sanity. Ask if anybody wants to cc his sanity. If yes we keep our eyes on the two of them and continue to ask them for results. If the scum kills the cop, scum dies next day.

IF WE GET A COP CLAIM TODAY NOBODY SHOULD CC.

We wait for tomorrow and ask the claimed cop his sanity. THEN ask for CCs. That narrows down their role and anyone who wants to cc must claim

that specific role

. (because all cops

will

self investigate tonight)

[earworm]

Wow. Deity Kabuto is a worse VI than Vezo. Can't get a read worth anything on him.

Anyway I like this post:

Looking at players in ISO; earworm's posting has been very townish lately. My vote on him is not well-placed. UNVOTE: Earworm

A lot of players have solid, townish posting when I review them in ISO. This is frustrating; as is the fact that a few players haven't posted a lot of substantial content to review.

One player whose posting sticks out at me is Nocmen -- he first drew my suspicion when he granted Surye a town-read for his odd questioning of Cobblerfone's question early in the day. But since then, his posting has not struck me as townish. His interaction with earworm in particular raises a red flag, as it appears to me now that earworm was satisfactorily addressing the points against him; but Nocmen would not concede this (for example, "finally, you make sense. But you still were making too many assumptions and changing scenarios" says Nocmen; but never argues his case for how earworm is making too many assumptions and changing scenarios).

VOTE: Nocmen

P-Edit: Pine, Sathoris was the first one I ISO'd because I thought he might be manipulating the town. But his ISO looks pretty townish to me; and while the case on you might be weak, but he has at least tried to construct some semblance of an argument -- many others around here cast votes with little or no justification at all.

And will sheep this argument.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Nocmen

I also don't like how Nocmen completely ignored this vote in his next post.

Actually, what we're both more or less saying is simply that we don't trust our reads of each other.

It's you folks that keep reading more into that simple statement.

You said that upfront, but I was more curious about C-worl's response initially to you joining the game. It was just now that he pretty much said the same that you did. However though, isn't that our goal to read into things? Go through and determine what has more meaning, with a personal agenda?

I'm not going to attack Pine right now, I have a slight town read on him from his meta and from how fast he let himself come into attention.

Thing is, there isn't really much else to go on. Cobbler's been acting more cautious ever since amassing some votes. Could be that he's trying to avoid that situation from repeating because he scared about being caught for the wrong reasons. Though that's stretching it.

I still think Pine's post is lynchworthy. His defense of replacements seemed a tad too much aswell.

Replacements are one of the Town's biggest advantages, asshat. We look at things with new eyes and have the chance to provide new insight. Replacments are not burdened by confirmation bias, and often become game-changers.

Immediately attacking replacements to discredit them is one of the most self-serving and scummiest things one can do in this game. Especially when they're replacing into a slot that is a nearly clean slate.

Only we're on page 12 of day one, there are no confirmations and not a lot has happened in the way of damning or clearing anybody. Your predecossor has one post in which he said he didn't see anything. I wouldn't call that a nearly clean slate other than no slate upon which to measure.

This whole C-Worl/Pine conversation has been dragging on, but for what reason? It's hardly worth posting about. Scum C-worl would have better reasons of making his gameplay with Pine known than town C-Worl. I really don't buy you too can't play together without tunneling on each other while getting the wrong read. And with all due respect, if you can't play together without that sort of thing happening perhaps you need to look at your play again and change something.

There's also been a lot of lurking, as evident from the recent prods. Not a big fan of looking at the lurkers to find a mafia on day one. Only time will tell.

As things stand I remain on my vote untill something significant changes.

First of all, I don't think the vote on Pine is worth it right now, especially when scum wants to go more under the radar, not burst and draw eyes to themself. From other games I've seen Pine in, he doesn't draw attention to himself, which is why I'm thinking he's town for now.

I do agree though with the Cobbler mention, he has made a lot of repeating, with little scum hunting, but his post frequency has definitely decreased in the past couple days.

What sticks out to me most from this post? Defending a lurker.

Unvote, Vote: Sathoris

Also I think his vote on Sathoris is laughable since what Sathoris is really saying is that it's nearly impossible to truly scumhunt lurkers and to try and lynch one of them on day one is not productive.

[earworm]

@Nocmen: are you going to completely ignore the votes on you? Any comments at all?

@Surye: While I personally have a town read on him, I think the main reason people aren't going down that avenue right now is lack of activity coming from him. This game is moving pretty slow for my tastes.

[earworm]

@Nocmen: Why won't you disagree with the case? It is a case that points you being scum.

@The mask: Mainly it just feels strange to me. So I'm asking why you did it that way. Care to humor me?

[earworm]

@TheMask: um, yeah... my bad. I misunderstood you there. Thanks for the clarification.

As for why I asked: It's just the sequence of posts that get under my skin a little bit

Your post-Unvote and show some suspicion towards Surye.
Surye's post-"What the hell you talking about"
Your next post-"VOTE SURYE"

There wasn't anything that Surye did in between your posts that should make anyone vote him. So I asked why wait. I am satisfied with your answer. Thanks for humoring me.

Nocmen's making me swell... need to read up on some of his meta. will do tomorrow.

[earworm]

Eh... I'd rather see DK vigged. It's gonna be hard to get any reads from this lynch, since he has given us no interactions with anyone.

That said consider this post a "will jump on the DK wagon if my wagon doesn't go anywhere" post.

[earworm]

forgot about that...

VOTE: DK

[earworm]

Actually, I was thinking. Anyone up for a Jily wagon?

I'm not a huge fan of her last few posts, especially the waffling re: DK's wagon.

VOTE: Jily1991

[earworm]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: DK

Look at those last two posts of his. Yeah.

[earworm]

Anybody have any clue why there's only two kills? There should be three.

As for why I thought DK was scum, his posts smelt like flailing scum. One especially felt like a scum claim to me. ("Okay, I take it back, I am not pro-town, geez. o.o") I was wrong.

Cobblerfone on the other hand is still scum.

VOTE: Cobblerfone

[earworm]

Barking up the wrong tree Pine. (pun not intended) no killing role here. I was asking in case anyone had any info on the matter. That's all.

[earworm]

@everyone (and not just the people on my wagon) why or why not do you find me scummy?

[earworm]

@Surye: It's a decent vote. I'm still getting huge scum vibes from Cobbler so I'm gonna stay put.

[earworm]

@Surye- Your vote sucks, to be honest.
As for your logic...it was a forgone conclusion that DK was going to hang. There were few to no cases, it was all "policy lynch, policy lynch". So DK claimed, since that's what you do.
Now, your voting me because I believed him, whereas, you are inferring you thought it was a fake claim?
Do fake claims prevent policy lynches?
If so, please link me two games of comparable size in which a policy lynch candidate claimed and was then not lynched.

As for the NKs & lynch, DK claimed bodyguard and flipped bodyguard.
I had a town read on Sathoris because I liked his logic here even though I disagreed: http://www.mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopi ... 0#p3129860

I agree with Cobbler on this statement

...I think CMAR/SG was either the hider or traitor.

no vote? who do you suspect?
although I think CMAR was the traitor. Almost every post contained the mantra "______ is town." Seemed more like a signal than a read.

[earworm]

oops. didn't even realize that post #515 failed.

It was supposed to say "vote?"

Seriously. People need to vote.

Everyone here-->Quilford, jilynne1991 C-Worl, PeregrineV, sorasgoof.

Vote.

[earworm]

I'm finding it hard to participate in this game when there is so little activity. Can we pick it up a little?

inb4 someone says I haven't been posting either. Read the above statement.

@Earworm. I'm not so eager to throw around my vote. How long do we have left until the deadline? There's no reason everyone needs to have a vote on someone right now.

it helps me determine your alignment. Right now I can't even tell where your suspicions lie.

[earworm]

But seriously people. If you don't want to vote, give me suspicions at least. Who do you think might be scum, who do you think might be town? You people are acting like this is the beginning of the game and there's nothing to go on. We have a full day behind us. Use it.

Nothing is going to happen if people don't do stuff.

[earworm]

Town
Ironhead
TheMask

Town-ish
Vezo
Surye
Nocmen
Sorasgoof

Null
Amrun
Peregrine

Scummy
Jily
Pine

Scum
C-Worl
Cobblerphone

[earworm]

I'll explain my scumreads. Town reads I will not however. (not protown, imo)

First off switch Jily and C-Worl on my list. Got them confuzzled for a bit.

Cobbler-Same reason as yesterday plus suspicious and opportunistic vote on me today.
Jily-Hated her vote on DK yesterday. Tried to justify it way too much.

Pine-Didn't like the interaction he had with C-worl. I also think his reason for voting me is terrible.
C-worl-Didnt like the interaction with Pine. Also not playing very protown. Lurky and unhelpful.

[earworm]

Claiming: Hider.

Ironhead is town.

[earworm]

Why did you hide behind Ironhead?

Decent chance that he was town and I like his use of logic. Good person to have confirmed.

[earworm]

UNVOTE: earworm

Hider is tricky. It's the only role that doesn't reveal itself when it's killed at night. He could have agreed with my theory of CMAR being the hider and decided it was a decent chance.

explain what you mean here.

I'm just not understanding.

[earworm]

No. Iron was a terrible pick.

Hiders are weak investigative roles. You don't hide behind your Town reads, you don't hide behind your scum reads. You investigate a null read to get information and a clear.

Hiding behind a Town read is purely self-preserving, and gains the Town nothing.

He was a town-ish read for me. I thought about going for ShadowGuru but I thought there was a good chance that he would die. He certainly wasn't as strong of a read for me as some of you might have had him. Honestly I think it's pointless trying to shoot for scum as the hider since it won't give the town any information at all, especially if I hadn't of claimed at that point.

Don't like Peregrine's latest vote. Seems weak. Starting to see Surye's point.

I'm done giving Vezo a free ride because he's a VI. He's been playing bad all game (nothing new here), but these two posts today are just headscratchers.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Vezo

[earworm]

@VEZO: get your ass in here and explain yourself dammit.

You guys are right. I'm just tired.

And I agree with Cobbler's case on Vezo.

If you agree that you are wrong why are you still voting him?

Today is post or die. Working on it now. I apologize. Life is getting the best of me.

...........

Vote: jilynne1991

I want to hear more from her, not liking this dissappearance.

Need to do another analysis on Cobbler, vezok, and Peregrine though.

Jily's had terrible activity in all of her games lately. It's pretty null.

[earworm]

Ok, I'm so sorry for not saying anything, but everything I want to say has already been said, and I have quite a few ideas, but nothing's popping out enough or obvious enough or me to feel confident about saying.

Sorry.

I do think earworm is town though, and Cobblerfone's the most suspicious, but I think you guys are also overeager.

Ok, I don't know what that was right there, I'm not thinking righ.

Ok, I don't know where overeager came from, and switch earworm and Cobblerfone's.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Jily

Jilynne: Please give reads on

every player

in the game.

[earworm]

Mask vs. Amrun looks town v town. going to skim this now...

@Amrun: Why do you think Jily might be a mislynch? What was the purpose of the question to Peregrine?

@The Mask: why bring up self Meta? How convincing do your meta is?

[earworm]

Ok, fine, I was kind of dreading this game, since this is the...most boring game...I'm in at the time and I wanted to ignore it as long as possible. Sorry, well, I'm back, and after rereading a couple of pages, I think I got a ton of ideas again.

It seems that I was only asked to give reads, but since I lacked effort earlier, I'll do one better. I'll add at least a line of explanation for each. If asked for more, I'll quote posts and/or go more in detail.

Also, I'm not sure if you anyone here has read the games where I was scum. (I never get bored in a game as scum.) I'm town.

......................................................................I'm waiting

[earworm]

yep. moar Jily votes please. That post was terrible.

[earworm]

But... (>_>)

You are going to have to do a lot to convince me she's not scum Amrun. I'm willing to listen to reason, but if you don't have anything except meta, I'll ignore it.

[earworm]

*sigh*

I'm gonna trust you on this one Amrun.

UNVOTE:
VOTE: pine

I got a good feeling about this one.

[earworm]

@Amrun, Surye + Cobblerfone: Thoughts on Pine?

Mod: v/la 30th-3rd

[earworm]

what about his voting? They've all been pretty bad.

Sathoris-->silly OMGUS
DeityKabuto-->opportunistic vote, with little reasoning
earworm-->bad reasoning, opporunistic, and didn't unvote when I claimed.
Jily-->Hella opportunistic

[earworm]

coolies, I've caught up with all my games now, yay!
Now for my reads:

Town:

Cobblerfone
Deitykabuto
CMAR
Sathoris
jilynne
earworm
Surye
Ironhead

Scum:

Vezok

wredfar

PeregrineV

TheMask

null:

CWorl

sorasgoof

TheJackalope

Pine

SCUM

PeregrineV
Mask

Nocmen

Sorasgoof

Pine

C-Worl

Vezokpiraka

Cobbler
Surye
Earworm
Ironhead
Jily

(as per another post)

TOWN

Amrun replaced Quilford who replaced monk.
Monk's reads are at the top, Amrun's reads below.
2 distinct players,
One male, one female.
One US east coast, one Australian East coast.
One day1 reads, one day2 reads

Almost exact same reads? Who are you kidding? Might happen if you were town, but totally doubt it. Guessing you replaced into a scum slot, and it's easier using what the slot already posted then redo their work.

Unvote. Vote: Amrun

lol

VOTE: peregrineV

[earworm]

Ok, I'm hammering.

VOTE: ToastyToast

Gawd, I have a sick feeling in my stomach.

LOL

wrong game there bucko

[earworm]

@empking: Do the sanities flip to the player that nightkills them?

why are you asking this?

any cc's?

[earworm]

@Peregrine: why did you wait until the next post to claim?

I voted you because that point was ridiculous. It was very clear that Amrun actually spent a lot of time trying to get reads on people and you called her out saying she just copied and pasted reads from someone else. It's just plain stupid.

Thoughts and prayers out to Amrun.

[earworm]

What wpuld the scum motivation be for doing such a thing? Especially when I went through the trouble of showing my work? Also the reads aren't even the same. I have vezok as town, for example.

Seriously dumbest thing I've ever read.

Who is an insane cop now? Don't have time to read carefully.

Peregrine claimed insane cop

UNVOTE:

@Ironhead: what about Pine instead? If you feel really strongly about Vezok I'd be down, but I'd prefer a Pine lynch right now

[earworm]

:/ I said I was V/la.

Anyways reading up now. First impressions are 1) not liking vezok wagon right now and 2) thinking chkflip is better. Better post will be up later.

[earworm]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: chkflip

Did anyone else notice Monk reads=Amrun reads and just not comment on it because it's not worth it?

Fully explain why you think this is scummy. Why would scum just copy the same reads as their predeseccor. In other words, where is the scum motivation for doing what she did?

@The Mask- Care to consider changing your vote?

[earworm]

Deadline coming.

@Everyone

: The viable lynch targets are Vezo or Chkflip. If you aren't voting one of these two people in your next post you better have a damn good reason why.