Mini 1195: The Beehive Mystery (GAME OVER)

[subgenius]

Hello people.

vote: Beck

I agree with Beck's assessment that he must be scum.

Also, I know we have several hydras in here, but I'm not sure I'm aware of all of them. Ivan, Greymarble, and I think one or two more. Who are the others?

[subgenius]

Jesters aren't allowed in normal games. Beck is scum, and Yank is his partner.

[subgenius]

You are better player than this, I'm disappointed in you subs

Have we played together?

[subgenius]

This is my 2nd game on site so no but if you have been playing here since 2008, so I'm taking an assumption you are a good player

Unfortunately, I've only played four games since I joined, and I've been on the winning team in exactly none of them, so I'm not sure your assumption is a good one.

Yank isn't looking too hot right now. Between his equivocal opinion on Beck and now his lame defense against Ivan, which consists of little more than an accusation of twisting words, I'm not seeing much from him. It's only the second page, but I've got a bad feeling about Yank.

Also:

You're voting for me because you guys are able to twist words? That's convenient.

"That's convenient" seems to imply that you think Ivan is up to something shady. Do you think he's purposely trying to twist your words because he's scum, or are you merely trying to avoid answering his accusations?

[subgenius]

What defense? Ivan pretty much said he's keeping his conclusions to himself, and still hasn't stated a case against me other than me saying "At the Same time." So yes, it feels to me that he could be opportunistic scum. I can't have a lame defense if I don't know what I'm defending myself from, and I'm not going to sit here and defend my word choice. What I said regarding the jester is exactly what I thought(Didn't know they weren't in normal formats), that Beck may have been trying to hard for a lynch. I don't see how I'm 'evenhanded', and I thought what Beck was saying early game was anti-town and weird. Past that, I don't see your case.

You gave Beck a pass on his first post, because you thought he was potentially a jester. Now that you know that is impossible, what do you think of his first post?

[subgenius]

I agree with ICEninja that post 49 is telling, but I get a different read from it.

There's no debating that Yank is being overly defensive here, which I've seen cited more than once as a scum tell, but I find myself reading it as a newbie tell. He reminds me of myself in my first game after a long hiatus, in which I was subjected to some early pressure. GreyICE (of GreyMarble) was in that game, and might recall it. Like Yank, I became a bit hysterical and assumed my accusers were scum. As it turned out, they weren't scum, and neither was I.

At the moment, I'm sensing that Yank is an inexperienced and frazzled townie rather than a flailing scum.

Minor deterrent attacks like these more frequently come from scum who need to attempt to dissuade people from voting them than town who is genuinely innocent. I do it subconsciously as scum

Town also rarely needs to state that they're town, particularly this early. Another thing I do subconsciously as scum.

I'm wondering if you have any particular examples in mind when you say you do these things subconsciously as scum. It's certainly plausible that these are subconscious scum tics, but I'd feel more comfortable accepting your arguments if you could provide some examples.

I would like to ask one question of everyone, though. What is your timezone?

EST

[subgenius]

@Sungenius: Do you still like your Beck vote? I feel like pressure on him will get us no further and his joking was probably more town in hindsight. I can't see scum wanting to draw attention to themselves unless it's for a pro- town reason. What do you think of Acro?

No, my vote is still on Beck because I haven't decided on a better place to put it at the moment.

What do I think about Acro? Well, I had to pull up his ISO to even remember what he had posted, and that's because he's made four posts with no information except that he doesn't want to vote yet. His only questions to others have been about Beck's previous mafia experience and a request for clarification from confid about his vote, which seems like a defensive move rather than an attempt to put pressure on Confid. In short, he's posting, but has avoided voting or letting any opinions be known. I can excuse a refusal to vote if a player compensates by actively pressuring players through pointed questions and provides interesting analysis, but Acro is not doing this.

You thinking Yank was scum until post 49. Why the sudden change?

I thought I explained myself pretty fully in Post 53. Prior to Post 49, I read Yank as fence sitting and hesitant to state firm opinions, which I consider scummy. In post 49, he came out of his shell a bit and took a firm stand. I don't think it was necessarily a good one, but I don't think it was a scummy one either. It looked like a jumpy newbie defense, which lessened my suspicions of Yank.

@CS
RVS is OVER. Acro did the right thing not slapping on a vote.
+5

I find Sleepy's support of Acro's refusal to vote a bit strange. I wouldn't vote someone for refusing to vote, but neither would I argue that it is a good move, and I certainly wouldn't assign someone "vollkan points"© for calling someone out for refusing to vote.

A trait I've noticed in various mafia games throughout the interwebs is that scum, more specifically newer scum, tend to want to make sure that everyone knows why they are doing what they are doing, so that they won't get suspected for it. Your [Acro's] statement seems to fall in line with that.

I find this argument plausible.

In conclusion, my vote isn't doing much on Beck, and it looks like Acro might need a few votes on him before he decides to contribute. I'm less concerned by the fact that he's not voting than the fact that he's not voting OR contributing much in other ways. This is troubling to me.

Unvote

Vote: Acronach

[subgenius]

Ok, Acronach has shown up and contributed. He never directly addressed my vote on him, which I find strange, but his recent activity has allayed my concerns that he is trying to maintain a low profile while not committing to any stances.

Also, after seeing Acronach's post, I really have to question SK's claim that he is a VI. Maybe he and I have different opinions on what constitutes a VI, but in my book, VI players are incapable of composing a post like 168 without saying something moronic.

So, this grants more urgency to the question of why SK would go out of his way to dismiss Acro's actions as VI town. I just don't see any possible town motivation for it. Calling Acro a VI seems like a stretch, and even if Acro was a habitual VI, that still doesn't make him automatically town. Why try to deflect attention from him with such a flimsy excuse? The whole thing is weird. SK is definitely on my radar.

Also, I'm still a bit concerned about Yank. I had him pegged as a jumpy townie after 49, but that's hardly enough to keep me convinced. As others have mentioned, his deflection to Beck was bad. Also, this could be a scum slip (post 54):

@ICE: Of course I'm nervous of the

town push

against me.

Freudian slip showing that he knows his accusers are actually town? Could be. It's hard to know how much to make of such things.

Then in post 182

Acro: Why exactly do you think I'm scummy? You just threw me down on the bottom there without much else comment.

Still defensive. The pressure on him has lessened, and he's still in survival mode. His primary concerns seems to be other people's suspicions of him rather than trying to dig up dirt on other people. His only suspect is Ivan, and that was just about entirely OMGUS.
@Yank: Besides Ivan, who are you finding suspicious, and why?

I'd also like to see more posts from Greymarble. Granted, it's the weekend, but that slot has been surprisingly quiet, considering that there are two people at the helm.

[subgenius]

Obviously, I'd also like to hear from The Kool. I just find it more surprising that we've heard so little from Greymarble, what with him being a hydra and all.

[subgenius]

Post 105

In conclusion, my vote isn't doing much on Beck, and it looks like Acro might need a few votes on him before he decides to contribute. I'm less concerned by the fact that he's not voting than the fact that he's not voting OR contributing much in other ways. This is troubling to me.

Unvote
Vote: Acronach

In other news:

also, after last game where i was basically blindsided by an obvbuss, i don't really blame SK for calling me VI.

This is weird... SK defends Acronach by saying he's a VI, Acronach defends SK by agreeing that he is a VI. Anyone else see this as bizarre?

[subgenius]

Sub: I think Grey's one post was out there and like you said, I'm wondering why he hasn't contributed more.

So your only other suspect is another OMGUS? Interesting. Do you have any opinions on anyone that isn't voting for you?

My reasoning for thinking Acro is a VI:

Ok, even assuming this reasoning is valid, I'm not understanding your defense of Acro.

First you said:

RVS is OVER. Acro did the right thing not slapping on a vote.

Then:

Acro is a VI. Of course he'll do anti-town things.

First of all there's the contradiction here. Is not voting a good move or a VI move? You first defended Acro by saying he was playing correctly. Then, when that didn't work, you tried defending him by saying he's a VI. Secondly, even if he is a VI, that doesn't make him town, and it's no reason to not put a bit of pressure on him.

I can't tell what you really think about Arco other than that you don't want people voting for him or pressuring him for some mysterious reason. I'm concerned.

[subgenius]

It is protown to not vote when you have no idea what to do. It's VI-ish having no idea what to do.

Acro is a VI. Of course he'll do anti-town things.

In the second quote, it looks like that you admit Acro was being anti-town, but dismiss it based on him being a VI. Now, you're saying that he was being pro-town despite being a VI.

Before that, you said that not voting was correct play based on RVS being over, but you didn't mention at all that this was correct only if you're a VI or that Acro is a VI.

Still, your only consistent position on Acro is that he shouldn't be exposed to pressure.

@sub, if somebody thinks somebody is VI, what is wrong with that person defending the VI from being lynched (going under the assumption that the VI = town read)

Nothing is wrong with defending a VI town read from being lynched, but that is in no way what Sleepy was doing.
First, Acro was not anywhere near a lynch, he was simply under a small amount of pressure.
Second, I haven't seen Sleepy argue anywhere that he actually has a town read on Acro. He was only pointing out Acro's meta as a VI, which is utterly irrelevant to his alignment in this game.

I'm changing my vote. There's something fishy going on with Sleepy and Acro, and Sleepy is the far fishier of the two.

unvote

vote: Sleepy

[subgenius]

*sigh*
Not voting when he had no idea what to do. Protown.
Not pressuring or questioning. Anti-town.
Having no idea what to do. VI.

That's what you're saying now, but it's not what you said earlier.

In particular, your second point.

Only one person was making a big deal about Acro being anti-town, Captain Spoon, and his point was that not voting was anti-town.
in post 116.

This would lead me to believe that when you said:

Acro is a VI. Of course he'll do anti-town things.

You were accepting that not voting was anti-town, since not voting was the only thing anyone else had specifically described as anti-town.

Now you're trying to claim that you meant not pressuring or questioning was what was anti-town about Acro's behavior, but I see absolutely nothing that would make me believe that this was actually what you had in mind when you agreed that Acro was being anti-town.

Now, these contradictions on their own aren't important, but these inconsistencies lead me to think that you were going out of your way to defend Acro for an unknown reason rather than following a rational train of thought that lead to the conclusion that Acro should not be subjected to pressure. I'm having trouble thinking of a town motivation for defending another so early in the game without a clear reason, so I'm forced to conclude that you're scum.

[subgenius]

Unvote, Vote: YankCane

Careful, Beck. You're about to end up on Yank's suspect list.

[subgenius]

This post doesn't make any sense. Your premise is fine, but your conclusion is strange. Essentially you're saying that SleepyKrew has scum motivation to defend Achro, so either scum Sleepykrew is buddying town achro, or scum SleepyKrew is defending his partner. Achro seems like an unlikely townie to be buddied, especially if SleepyKrew thinks he's a VI. On top of that, calling him a VI defeats the buddying as no one particularly likes being called stupid. And if he's right and achro really is a VI, then he won't be a very useful pawn anyway.

Therefore we should assume that SleepyKrew is not scum buddying a townie. That means that you assume he is scum defending his scumbuddy. If that is the case, then Achro must be scum for this to hold true. Therefore, if you actually place store in this you should be trying to lynch achro first.

I'm going to echo you here and say that the premise of your post makes sense, but the conclusion (that I'm scum) doesn't follow. I agree that if Sleepy is scum attempting to buddy Acro, he's going about it very strangely. I'll also agree that there's a possibility that Sleepy is trying to cover for his partner. What I don't understand is why I'm scum because I decide to vote one of my suspects instead of the other. If I think both Sleepy and Acro are scum, I'm justified voting for either one. Why should I want to lynch Acro first?

This is where you vote Sleepykrew, and it implies the same thing. Your argument requires achro to be scum therefore you should be voting achro if you actually believe what you're saying. You aren't, therefore you don't.

Again, what exactly is scummy about switching votes from one suspect to another? I think they're both suspicious, but at the moment, I'm finding Sleepy slightly more so, and so that's where I'm directing my attention. I'm honestly surprised and confused that this is a case that convinced you to vote for me.

Since you're voting me based on my vote against Sleepy, I gather that you don't think there's anything suspicious about his defense of Acro. Do you have an explanation for it? What's your read on Sleepy right now?

[subgenius]

Arco, why are you going out of your way to bolster Sleepy's VI accusation? It's really bizarre.

Regardless, I'm not all that interested in whether or not Sleepy had a valid reason for calling Acro a VI. I'm interested in why he felt it was necessary to excuse Arco's refusal to vote in the first place.

[subgenius]

if i was maf and he was town...

Any argument that begins this way is almost guaranteed to be WIFOM and useless.

i don't think he was defending me, but rather he was defending the idea that voting when you don't have a strong FOS on anyone in particular is anti-town.

I strongly disagree with this interpretation. He was discussing his position on non-voting in the context of Captain Spoon getting on your case. Otherwise, he wouldn't have suggested that CS ignore the issue since you in particular are supposedly a VI. He was not involved in a game theory discussion, he was involved in a "get off of Acro's case" discussion.

Here are examples of SK specifically talking about you, not theory:

RVS is OVER. Acro did the right thing not slapping on a vote.

Like I said, RVS is OVER. And [Acro] doesn't want to use his vote now, don't make him.

And the town motivation is [Acro] didn't have any clue who scum were.

I want to give [Acro] a chance. If he gives a shitty response, then make room for me on the badnwagon.

Acro is a VI. Of course he'll do anti-town things.

He was clearly coming to your defense, not discussing abstract theory.

i know defending him makes us look like scumbuddies. although he may be scum, i'm not. sleepy is in no way clear, i am in no way clear. i would be happy to take one for the town and be the first lynch, but i hope it doesn't come to that.

Something about this quote strikes me as being overly... I don't know, ingratiating to town. It's town pleasing. The last sentence in particular seems unnecessary, as if you went out of your way to show how much of a team player you are. I don't care for it.

Also, I'm surprised to see you backing up Sleepy so soon after this:

gonna take some time to think about what could be going on as far as the sleepy defense thing.

and:

No. Acro is in no way clear.

than I don't get your defense of him

ditto

[subgenius]

I didn't read the link, because it's irrelevant to my suspicions of him or you. I don't care why SK thinks you're a VI. I care why he went out of his way to defend you, and I care why you seem to be going out of your way to return the favor.

[subgenius]

I honestly wasn't trying to be insulting. I think the Captain Picard macro in response to me calling his argument WIFOM, which I think it is. Perhaps, calling it useless was a bit harsh, but I stand by my opinion that arguments that follow the form of:

If I was mafia, I would do A.
I did not do A,
Therefor I am not mafia.

Are not especially convincing.

Any insult was accidental, and I apologize.

In any case, he doesn't really seem to mind being called a VI, or at least he's not bothered by SK doing it, and as I've said, I'm really not interested in whether he is or isn't a VI. Judging purely on this game, I'd say he's not, but it's irrelevant. The important thing is the mutual defense between Acro and SK, which I still find quite suspicious.

[subgenius]

It's more of I am trying to not get confused by all these hydras posting from the hydra account and their real account, and this incredibly stupid love triangle of SK, Acro, and Subs

Could you please elaborate on your thoughts on this "love triangle" and those who inhabit it?

@sub
Thoughts on Ivan?

I'm thinking he's looking pretty directionless at the moment. Of the three people he's voted for (Yank, Acro, and myself), I haven't seen him really dig in with any long term pressure. He'll make a case when he votes, but then leave it alone. For example, I was surprised he didn't have any more questions for me in his last post. If he really thought I was scum, he should be finding weaknesses and pressuring me, but he's not. If he doesn't think I'm scum, he should still be pressuring Acro or Yank right now, but he's not.

Alignment wise, I'd say he's a null read. I haven't seen anything specific that screams town or scum from him. I think his case against me is confusing, but I'm not sure it's scum motivated.

[subgenius]

But he's defending me. By your logic, isn't he my scumbuddy?

Yes, he spent a post dissecting my case against you, but my interpretation is that he was motivated more by wanting to make a case against me based on allegedly poor logic than wanting to defend you. Of course, when he questioned the logic of my case, it undermined it's effectiveness, which helps your defense, but I'm not sure that was his primary intent.

This is different than your defense of Acro, where your primary motivation clearly seemed to be diverting attention from Acro.

Unfortunately, it's hard to say much more about it, because Ivan ignored me when I asked him to explain his thoughts on you, which I forgot about when I was explaining my thoughts on him. Now that I remember it, I see that Ivan is starting to form a disturbing trend of ignoring questions (Beck's and mine).

[subgenius]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: sub

lol, What?

That's all I have time for at the moment, I'll catch up further in a bit.

[subgenius]

Alright, it's been awhile since I've had a chance to catch up, so this might be a long one. I usually don't use spoilers, but I will here. Hopefully people will find them helpful and still read them.

Spoiler: Beck

Beck has done a lot of good posting in the last day or so. He's definitely paying attention, analyzing the game, and trying to figure out who's scum. Or he's doing a fantastic job faking. I'm leaning town on him, and I'm finding his posts useful and insightful.

Spoiler: Acro

kk, well any arguments you make about the VI thing are irrevelant. deal with it.

This conversation has disintegrated into a slap-fight. I've made my points, and I'll let others judge what I consider to be your inadequate responses for themselves.

not completely useless. if im town and SK is maf, why would he defend me? if SK is town and im maf, why would i defend him? using this logic, it's extremely unlikely that we have opposing alignments. not impossable, but unlikely.

If SK is maf and you're town. SK benefits from defending you by possibly gaining a town ally or gaining some town cred if you're lynched and flip town. The same works in reverse.

Spoiler: rblinker

However, then only reason I’m not voting yet is like beck pointed out, its weird there defending each other, if they were to be scum, its throwing themselves out there too much so I’m not sure for a vote just yet.

I'm not understanding the reluctance to vote here. If you were deciding between Sleepy and someone else, I could see waiting a bit, but Sleepy seems to be your primary and only suspect, so why not vote for him. It's not as if you're wielding the hammer vote or anything. I'm sensing passivity here, which I'm not a fan of.

Spoiler: Sleepy

The reason I said I'd vote for a scummy response is because I've seen scum pressured for completely the wrong thing, but they respond scummily under the pressure and that leads to their lynch.

And yet you defended Acro, thereby giving him an excuse for his actions, thereby lessening the pressure on him, thereby lessening the chance that he would be forced into a slip. If you really held this opinion, the proper course of action would seem to be letting the pressure against Acro play out, then only defend him if the wagon seemed to be getting close to a lynch.

Spoiler: Beck

reasons why I like Yank

I agree with this post. Yank is on my "highly lynchable" list. Between his AtE, attempt to deflect suspicion to Beck, and ensuing absence, he is appearing extremely scummy to me. The theory of Ivan bussing Beck hadn't occurred to me, but seems plausible. I wouldn't say I have a scum read on Ivan right now, but if Yank is lynched and flips scum, bussing would be a possibility worth exploring.

Spoiler: Acro

@Ivan please claim all your heads in your next post

I'm really not understanding Acro's insistence that Ivan claim his heads. It's understandable to ask, and it's understandable to be annoyed when no answer is provided, but Acro seems to be interpreting this refusal to reveal heads as scummy, and I don't understand why. Ivan has done some questionable things in this game, but I'm not sure hiding his heads is one of them.

Spoiler: Da Koolzy

Okay, guys. You NEVER EVER answer questions directed at someone else, or try to explain their reasoning! The questions were directed at them for a reason, and if you give the 'right' answer, scum could just say 'what he said' instead of the flawed response they would have given, outing them as scum. Hence, you NEVER EVER ANSWER QUESTIONS DIRECTED AT SOMEONE ELSE!

VOTE: Captain Spoon

I agree that one shouldn't answer questions directed at someone else, but the reason it should be avoided is because doing so might sabotage another player's scum hunting. It's potentially anti-town, but not necessarily scummy. Are you voting spoon for any reason aside from him answering someone else's question, or do you really consider this to be scummy enough on its own to deserve a vote? Is this really the scummiest thing you've seen so far this game? What scum motivation would CS have for answering Acro's question before I had a chance to respond? This vote doesn't quite make sense to me. Hopefully some of this will be explained in the upcoming catch up post you promised.

Spoiler: ICEninja

Good stuff

I like ICE's post 292. I agree with his analysis and only wish he could post a bit more.

Spoiler: Acro

bad reads were getting developed because these references were misunderstood, so i tried to fix it.

How do you know the scum reads on SK are bad? Again, whether or not he had valid evidence for saying you're a VI is irrelevant, what is relevant is that he went out of his way to provide an excuse for your non-voting. The case would be the same whether he excused your non votes based on a meta history non-voting, or a defense of non-voting in general (which he did), or attacked the one who was trying to pressure you based on non-voting (which he did). The VI issue is irrelevant to the reason anybody finds SK scummy. So, how do you know the read on SK is bad, considering that the only unique insight you have into the case is a minor and largely irrelevant detail?

Suspect Summary

Lynch priority: SK, Yank, Acro

Ivan is borderline. His two heads really need to get their act together. They've been confusing to read, and I really hate that a case is forming around whether or not they're lying about which head is making which decisions. It seems unlikely that head #1 would make a decision while head #2 would make the post, so it seems likely that they're lying. The only reason they're not higher on my scum list is that I can't come up with a good scum motivation for lying about what seems to me to be a fairly minor detail. I'm willing to believe that Archae forgot about the Acro vote. Mostly I simply dislike that this is coming up as an issue at all. Get your acts straight. If you two can't form coherent stances together, maybe you should sign your posts with 'Head A' and 'Head B' so that we can at least keep the flow of opinions straight.

[subgenius]

you seriously expect people to pay attention to those points when you didn't even read what you're talking about?

Yes, and I've explained why several times.

is there any town motivation for not claiming heads?

Doesn't matter. I'm looking for scum tells, not null tells. Maybe he's experimenting with a different play style and doesn't want to be judged. Who Knows? These motivations don't reveal alignment, imo. I'll concede that withholding meta info from town could benefit town more than scum, but people routinely play alts to avoid meta. I see it as a null tell.

Justifying a mislynch is a scumtell . . . and this post is guilty of that.

I like this point, but it does conflict slightly with the fact that I have a scum read on both Yank and SK. What's your read on Yank right now?

[subgenius]

ok, where?

Really?

Post 229

Regardless, I'm not all that interested in whether or not Sleepy had a valid reason for calling Acro a VI. I'm interested in why he felt it was necessary to excuse Arco's refusal to vote in the first place.

Post 235

I didn't read the link, because it's irrelevant to my suspicions of him or you. I don't care why SK thinks you're a VI. I care why he went out of his way to defend you, and I care why you seem to be going out of your way to return the favor.

Post 237

I'm really not interested in whether he is or isn't a VI. Judging purely on this game, I'd say he's not, but it's irrelevant. The important thing is the mutual defense between Acro and SK, which I still find quite suspicious.

Post 330

The case would be the same whether he excused your non votes based on a meta history non-voting, or a defense of non-voting in general (which he did), or attacked the one who was trying to pressure you based on non-voting (which he did). The VI issue is irrelevant to the reason anybody finds SK scummy.

FYI, you could have found all but one of these explanations by searching my ISO for "irrelevant"

irrelevant (ɪˈrɛləvənt)

— adj
not relating or pertinent to the matter at hand; not important

That is what your behavior in the previous game with SK is to my case against SK in this game. Irrelevant.

As I've said multiple times. It doesn't matter to me the least bit why SK thinks you're a VI and whether he is right or wrong in his assessment. It matters why he felt compelled to lessen the pressure on you. Your behavior in a previous game does not matter to my case at all, therefor I have not spent any of my limited time reading that previous game.

[subgenius]

ok, now you're just being a dick

Yep, and I admit, this time I was doing it on purpose. I can't believe we're still having this argument.

so why do you just assume it's irrelevant? and i'd like an answer that isn't "i don't care" or anything similar to that.

SK is on my suspect list because he was defending you early in the game in a way that I and some other players consider excessive. These defenses are well documented, and they aren't limited to him calling you a VI. The possible scum motivations of a scum player going out of his way to defend town early in the game have been explained, and the possible scum motivation to defend scum should not have to be explained. You are repeatedly trying to force me to read evidence that proves SK had a good evidence for calling you a VI, and maybe he does, but no matter how good his evidence is, it does not absolve him from mounting a suspiciously vigorous and early defense of you. He could be completely right about you acting like a VI in the previous game, but that would not explain why he felt compelled to try to excuse your actions in this game.

I don't know how to explain it any more clearly than that. How you acted in the previous game simply has no bearing on my thoughts about SK's actions in this game, particularly since his defenses of you weren't limited to him calling you a VI. I believe you when you say SK has reasons for calling you a VI. It just doesn't change anything about my case, which is about his choice to defend you not his choice of how to defend you.

And one last thing:

and a big part of the mutual defense is the VI thing. why ignore it?

I've explained why the specifics of the evidence leading to the VI charge are not that important as far as SK is concerned. I've said in the past that I thought it was strange that you would corroborate SK's VI charge, but I don't count that much as a defense, since as I've said, it's not related to my suspicions of him. You were merely providing information, which is fine, although strange, given the situation.

This, on the other hand, is where you are defending SK:

honestly, i can see where hes coming from in both cases as far as the defending me is concerned, and that was more of a "voting vs. not voting" debate rather than a "lynch acro or dont lynch him" debate. i don't think he was defending me, but rather he was defending the idea that voting when you don't have a strong FOS on anyone in particular is anti-town.

Because this actually addresses the case against SK. You're claiming he wasn't actually defending you, which more directly strikes at the case against him. It's also false, as I pointed out in 232. You never did respond to this, and we've been running in circles about the old game you linked ever since. The above quote is where your half of the mutual defense really comes into play, and you still haven't addressed my rebuttal of it.

[subgenius]

Acro, you've currently got questions pending from Beck and Tommy, and you're posting macros instead.

[subgenius]

I think I know what you're referring to, but a little more explanation would be nice, particularly since this is the first you've mentioned of Tommy at all.

[subgenius]

unvote

vote: Yank

Honestly, I expected him to disappear and be prodded out. I certainly didn't expect him to come back and vote Grey with a one line explanation. After his two day disappearance following a period of pressure, he really needed to come back strong to lessen my suspicions of him. This vote against Grey is the opposite of strong.

I'm not sure I'm ready for the day to end, because I feel like this is continuing to be an eventful and informative day, but I'm liking a Yank lynch a lot at this point.

[subgenius]

If you're telling the truth, that's probably way more information than you should have revealed. If we lynch you, and you come up mason, there's a good chance scum will be able to find one of your partners to NK this evening. I sure hope we've got more going for town than masons, because I have a feeling they're going to get dismantled pretty quickly.

[subgenius]

which is why lurking for the time I did worked in that favor

Oh, so you were lurking, because you didn't want scum to establish connections to your mason partners, thereby making it easier to NK them. Then in your claim you let scum know that they don't have to worry about half the player list when they're looking for the other masons. I see.

I agree with ICE's point about the appeal of forcing scum to use their NK's to dismantle a mason team, but I'm still having a hard time buying this claim, and I'm too sleepy to really do much thinking on it at the moment. I'll sleep on it and see how things look in the morning.

[subgenius]

Ok, I thought it through. I don't know if Yank is telling the truth or not, but I don't think we should lynch him either way. As people start dying off, we'll find ourselves in one of several situations, all of which are pretty decent.

If Yank is telling the truth:
1)By the 3rd day, chances are one of the masons will have likely died, thereby confirming Yank
2)If no masons have died, the masons will be proportionally far far more powerful later in the game. They can claim at that point and make scum hunting way easier.

If Yank is lying, it will become quite obvious by the 3rd day at the latest. We can lynch him then.

unvote

I'll figure out who I'm switching my vote to tomorrow.

[subgenius]

vote: Subgenius

Have you read the entire thread? All of your evidence comes from the first five pages or so, and since I've been acting pretty much the same way consistently throughout the day, I'm surprised you didn't included any evidence from later on. As far as I can tell you're voting me because I look town. So good luck with that case, I guess... I can't believe you're back on me with such weak evidence after your partner disagreed so strongly when you voted for me the first time.

[subgenius]

Alright, my opinion is that there are literally only scum motivations for lynching Yank right now. Even I were 90% sure Yank was scum today (which I consider a pretty high degree of certainty for a day 1 lynch) he'd still be a bad lynch today. If he's telling the truth, lynching him is a bad blow for a very powerful pro-town faction. If he's lying, he's already caught, and it's just a matter of time before he's lynched. There's no hurry. Therefor, Da Koolzy and Acro are both looking a bit scummier after their post claim support for Yank's wagon. Da Koolzy obviously supports it since he's voting for him, and although Acro switched his vote from the wagon, it's quite clear that he'd still prefer a Yank lynch.

Da Koolzy is on the radar. He came out of the woodwork seemingly hoping to hammer Yank after his claim. Also, he has yet deliver on any kind of comprehensive catch up post. The attack on Yank seemed a bit opportunistic (to use a popular buzz word) and out of the blue. He seems to have had computer trouble, and he should have time to more completely explain himself today, but I really don't like his Yank vote.

I also don't like:

Don't hammer yet. I reserve the right to do so after I check a few things, and respond to some pending questions directed at me.

Then he tries to hammer without answering the questions.

Acro was already on the radar, and since being there has dodged questions for an extraordinarily long time and expressed frustration that we aren't lynching a player that any thinking townie would realize is a bad lynch for today.

Town points to ICE. I'm extremely grateful that he unvoted, thus avoiding a hammer. His point about Sleepy is a good one. His unvote of Yank does not look like a scum move. It by no means clears him, but it does lessen my suspicions of him somewhat.

vote: Acro

[subgenius]

To add to the case on Acro, I'm a believer in CA's point about him being a bit too self-explanatory as well.

[subgenius]

I haven't posted much in the last day, and I'm not really seeing too much to comment on. I don't mind seeing the Acro wagon gaining steam at all. All I really have to say is that I agree with a lot of what's been said in the last page or two.

I agree with Tommy, that Da Koolzy's willingness to policy lynch CS for answering someone else's question borders on absurd. We have a very limited number of mislynches, and it's silly to lynch someone to teach them a lesson.

I had missed CS's point about Acro trying to discredit Twisted while he was attacking SK. That's a solid a piece of evidence that just adds more weight to the case against him.

+1 on Greymarble needing to post more. I know Grey's a smart guy, and I know Llama has a good reputation. I feel like we're being hamstrung by them not contributing.

I'm getting weird vibes from Da Koolzy. I didn't like the intended hammer against Yank, and I don't like him saying he was willing to lynch CS to teach him a lesson. I also don't like his consistent promises to properly catch up soon without every really delivering. He's been coasting a bit, and I strongly disagree with his two active choices, voting CS and attempting to hammer Yank.

I think acro is the better and more likely lynch today, but I wouldn't mind lynching Da Koolzy either.

Updated lynchable list, in order of preference:
Acro, Da Koolzy, SK

[subgenius]

V;LA for the next few days. i probably won't be back until after the deadline :/ Hoping for the best today. GL town.

Lame. as. hell. The heat is rising, he still hasn't answered the questions leveled at him, and then takes a V/LA. I am 100% for lynching this guy. This looks entirely like scum giving up, not town going on vacation and hoping for the best. Town hoping for the best would make an attempt at a defense at some point. He's scum, and he has no answer for the pressure or questions against him, and he's tired of dodging, so he's giving up. Please, lets lynch him.

[subgenius]

Koolzy, please post some content other than that you're gathering info or reading ISO's. 7 of your 9 posts have made some mention of you needing more time to figure out your reads, and it still hasn't happened. Quit stalling.

Same to Greymarble. This is getting obnoxious, especially since I too have seen Grey active elsewhere around the site.

[subgenius]

Grey, If you could include reasoning for your probtown read on Acro, I would really, really be interested in seeing it.

[subgenius]

Vote count has me voting for Yank, I should be voting for Acro.

unvote
vote: Acro

[subgenius]

I'm not quite understanding your fixation on this neighbor thing.

[subgenius]

Agree with everything ICE just posted. People that aren't voting for Acro need to either explain why they aren't. I think everyone that is voting for him is pretty settled, people who aren't need to make some decisions and explain them. Especially Greymarble. Seeing more for Da Koolzy would be nice too.

[subgenius]

I pretty strongly disagree with Grey's assessment of Acro.

Acronach is town primarily because he cares and is trying to find out who scum are.

After doing a quick skim of Acro's ISO, I do not get the sense that Acro cares and is trying to find out who scum are. The vast majority of his posting has been defense, and while he did raise a handful of suspicions, he did not seem to stick to them very strongly. At best he was reading the thread and forming opinions, but I didn't see much scum hunting. Also, taking a V/LA without at least making a parting defense or case against a leading scum suspect is the opposite of caring.

Is the town brand of WIFOM I think. Also town are susceptible to being buddied for the reason described here. Or at least I am.

If you think Acro is the victim of buddying, why aren't you voting for sleepy right now? Why isn't he even in your scum list?

He passes up an opportunity to hand somebody some scumpoints (towntell assuming Captaintown, which seems right), and then talks about the manner in which he plans to get reads (a favorite towntell of mine).

"I need more time to analyze his play before I make any kind of read," is about as vague as you could possibly be in describing how you plan on getting reads. I read that as an evasive answer rather than an actual plan. It doesn't actually communicate anything.


I'm growing concerned about Grey, particularly how he defends Acro by saying he was being buddied, which would require suspicion of sleepy, yet he has not voiced any suspicion of sleepy whatsoever. This is a contradiction, and it indicates to me that he is reaching to find defenses for Acro.

[subgenius]

I'm almost inclined to vote Grey, I'm just not sure I want my vote off of Acro.

Ditto, I just feel too good about the Acro wagon to let it possibly slip away.

This doesn't say anything about the alignment of the person calling him town.

So, how do you explain Sleepy's keenness to use any means necessary to discourage pressure against Acro?

[subgenius]

Yeah, I figured me getting lynched was the only real alternative to him getting lynched considering the deadline coming up.
Also the wagon does have a lot of people I think are town on it, so I'm hoping to be pleasantly surprised.

Maybe, if you read the thread, you could explain why we should vote for someone else. Just an idea.

[subgenius]

You could maybe start with explaining why ICE and Tommy are in your scum list. I have no idea what your reasoning is for either of these.

[subgenius]

Ugh, fine.

unvote

vote: Greymarble

[subgenius]

Ah, you're right, it was. Oh well, I have no problem with that.

[subgenius]

Yeah, realizing now that Grey's vote was the hammer and he commented, "I don't expect him to flip scum, so bleh," I see that vote as obscenely, over the top, blatantly scummy. He voted one of his "town reads" for self-preservation. Wow.

[subgenius]

I'm a little surprised that scum decided to kill Yank, but his alignment isn't much of a surprise. I don't think either of the flips change my reads very much. Grey and sleepy (jilynne) are still at the top of my list. I should re-read a bit to get my momentum back, but those are definitely the two players I'm most interested in hearing from at the moment.

vote: Greymarble

[subgenius]

I support the Kool vote. I thought his yank vote was scummy regardless of how he flipped.

[subgenius]

Question for you, Beck: do you know the significance of tongue in cheek?

Mafia has to be one of the worst venues for subtle or even some kinds of not so subtle humor. I was about to ream you for purposely confusing the town before I realized you were joking.

[subgenius]

I disagree, and I don't really believe you.

The above post proves the point, I think.

[subgenius]

Sub, can't put my finger on it yet, but I'm leaning scum on you now. The way you tried to change your vote to grey like it tortured you or something doesn't sit right

That's a fair observation. The reason I was so hesitant to change my vote was because I strongly wanted to lynch Acro, but it seemed like the wagon and the day had stalled (it turns out this was because the hammer had already been dropped). I wasn't sure what else I could do to move the acro wagon forward. I really thought that Grey deserved some pressure, and I didn't want to sit around hoping for a last Acro vote to trickle in before the deadline without doing anything else. So, I figured I'd start digging in a new direction. I was quite concerned that the Acro wagon would never regain momentum, which is why I seemed so reluctant to change my vote.

[subgenius]

Sorry about not posting. Honestly, I'm a bit stuck. We have more than enough players to suspect, and none of them seem to be doing a lot to defend themselves.

Koolzy and Jilynne are at the top of this list.

Greymarble has been posting a bit, but I don't find his defense especially compelling. While I agree that lynching a likely townie is better for the town than allowing one's self to be lynched (assuming the person in question is also town), I think Grey is overstating the danger he was in. It's true that he was probably the second leading lynch candidate, but we were still far off from the deadline, and he really didn't make any effort to present a case against one of his suspects.

Grey's point on Tommy is interesting, but after re-reading Tommy, it does appear that he had other reasons for suspecting Acro besides his defense of SK, which does explain his lessening suspicions of SK somewhat.

Rblinker, on the other hand has done the same thing that Grey accused Tommy of (pushing an acro lynch based on his mutual defense of SK then backing off on SK. I'm finding this a bit more suspicious in Rblinker's case, because he really didn't have much of a case on Acro besides the mutual defense thing. Also, he still hasn't applied much pressure to anyone through out the entire game. I'm starting to lead towards Rblinker as a good suspect.

I don't know. I should probably do a re-read. I agree with Beck about the game stalling. We have too many lurkers, and they aren't responding to pressure. I'd rather not rush to lynch yet, but we need to get some movement. I'm just not quite sure how atm.

preedit:

Yeah, lynch people you know nothing about to make yourself feel better. good job.

How about helping rather than just posting sarcastic comments? It's really wearing thin.

[subgenius]

agreed

vote: Jily

[subgenius]

I swear, I'd be happy lynching at least half of the players here. It's really sad.

Ivan, PLEASE make a case on at least one of your scum suspects. All you're doing is lurking, making sarcastic comments, and periodically declaring suspects without providing any cases. Please do something.

[subgenius]

You'd have to make a case against me first, and frankly I'd welcome something more than a pithy one liner out of you. Again, please do something. Make a case against me, or tommy, or blinker, or ICE, I really don't care which, but please convince me that you weren't completely full of it when you posted your most recent scum list.

[subgenius]

Well, at least Ivan's opinions should be easier to pin down for the next few weeks.

[subgenius]

I don't disagree with the Ivan vote, but I'd like to keep my vote on jilynne at least until she returns from her V/LA later today. The problem we're facing here is way too many lurkers, and we can't differentiate between them. There are enough of them that some of them are certainly town. If you are town, and you are lurking or not contributing, PLEASE come back and start putting some heat on someone. We're stalling out here, and a big part of the reason is that we have so many lurkers that we don't have enough active players to simultaneously pressure the lurkers and keep the game moving along. I would like to avoid running the clock out and picking a random lurker lynch without any substantive discussions.

[subgenius]

Why did you feel compelled to hammer at 4:15 am? It could have waited until you had time to compose a more thorough post.

In other news, Jilynne has posted in other threads twice today.

[subgenius]

Thank you for attempting to back up at least one of your suspicions.

First of all, this was never answered satisfactorily. We were simply told that it was too far in the past to be of much use. On Day 1 that seems like pretty thin reasoning.

I did respond to this accusation in post 224. If you didn't think my answer was satisfactory, maybe you should have mentioned it before now. Also, nowhere in my response did I attempt to dismiss your accusation by simply saying it was too far in the past. What are you even referring to with this 'in the past' business? What exactly was unsatisfactory about my answer? Why is this the first we're hearing about it, and why haven't you been maintaining your pressure on me if this issue is still unresolved as far as you're concerned?

This post is very interesting to me. This looks very strongly like scum trying to simulate a townie slowly changing their mind. Obviously, Subgenius already knew that Yank was going to flip town, so he couldn't be "YARG THIS BOY IS SCUMZ!!" "Looks like a newbie tell," is very convenient and very ridiculous. YankCane is NOT a newbie and a genuine townie would be suspicious that he isn't playing like a veteran townie as expected, rather than taking the irregularity as a town tell. The fact that YankCane was playing like a newbie should have been a scum tell unless he was trying to manufacture town tells.

First of all, I'm not sure when scum stopped drumming up phony cases on town, so I don't really understand why you're trying to claim that dropping a case on a now confirmed town is scum. Secondly, I already pushed hard on Acro, which turned out to be a bad lynch, so if my reluctance on the Yank case is a scum tell, then it seems my enthusiasm for the Acro case would be a town tell if I'm understanding you correctly. Thirdly, I have no idea how much experience Yank had. I did no meta research on him, and his behavior truly did look like a jumpy newbie to me.

This doesn't make any sense either. Beck was his random vote and two seconds ago he said Yank was flailing. Even with the supposed town tell, flailing seems like a much better basis for a vote than his RVS vote.

So, I should have voted for the guy I had said I had a town read for?

[subgenius]

Not a bad first post, looking forward to more fleshed out arguments. I am curious where you're getting town reads out of Ivan's play.

PS. If CS and Da Koolzy get replaced out, can we start over with a new RVS stage? It looks like we might end up with nearly half our players replaced today. I've never played in a game like this. It's ridiculous.

[subgenius]

L-2 for jily

[subgenius]

Oh, ok, do remind me though, what that game was...since the way you talk, it doesn't sound like it's an ongoing game, and in the games I've already finished, I had really good activity in.

Who cares about the previous game? Start having good activity in this one. You still haven't contributed anything. You're at L-2, and I don't see it getting better for you unless you start making some thoughtful posts.

I like Magic's case against Rblinker, and I think it deserves attention. I would still like to know how Ivan ended up on his town list, though.

[subgenius]

Jilynne, I'm trying to look through your previous games to get an idea of your normal play. Somehow, against all odds, you seem to almost always be scum. I'm having trouble finding town games. Could you link some games where you were a vanilla townie? I'm usually not into meta at all, but I can't come up with any better ways to figure out anything about your alignment.

[subgenius]

I haven't won any games as town either. It's always somebody else's fault, though. I swear.

Anyhow, the play in her scum games looks pretty similar to her play in this game, but I'd really like to see some town games to see if I can tell any difference.

[subgenius]

Subgenius, what do you think? Am I crazy?

I have to admit, I'm not a huge fan of this plan. As I said in an earlier post, I'd prefer to avoid lynching a lurker simply because we can't come up with another suspect. I'm all for putting serious pressure on Jilynne and Dakoolzy, but primarily in the hopes that they'll contribute. If they don't, I'm fine with lynching either one. My problem with the plan is that you seem to be making the lynch of a lurker a forgone conclusion for today, and I'm not sure that's the best plan. You seem to be confident that the wagons that form will be informative, but I'm not so sure. I can think of scenarios where such information would be useful, but I'm not sure any of them are consistent with our actual situation. Therefor, I'm reluctant to blindly follow along without there being more traditional scum hunting methods going on as well. I'm afraid we'll enter Day 3 (which will likely be LYLO if we mislynch) with a serious lack of information if we follow your plan and it doesn't pan out like you expect. I don't think either Jilynne or Dakoolzy are bad lynches necessarily (I'm quite suspicious of both of them), but I'd rather not head straight for a lurker lynch when there's still a lot of time before the deadline.

Also, I still would like to hear how Ivan ended up on your town list. In my opinion he has contributed very little, especially during the current day. He hasn't exhibited much interest in making cases, and when he finally did make a case, it was largely a rehash of one of his cases from yesterday which he never followed up on despite claiming the response to the case was inadequate, and now he still isn't following up on his case. The whole thing seems phony to me. I'm all for pressuring lurkers, but I think Ivan is one of the scummiest people that has actually been posting anything.

[subgenius]

'tis not a matter of lynching lurkers for being lurky, but rather of lynching them for being scummy.
Jil is scummy. Her being a confirmed nonmason and a lurker are bonuses, but definitely of secondary importance.

I fully agree that Jil is scummy, but I'd prefer that we not settle on lynching a player that seems unlikely to respond when we have nearly a week left before deadline and we still have the opportunity to pressure scummy players who are unlikely to respond. My primary concern is that if we lynch Jil or Dakoolzy, and they're not scum, we won't have an awful lot to show for this day. I think it's unwise to put all of our eggs in the scummy lurker hunting basket.

Also, since it looks like Da Koolzy is being replaced, I think it would be wise to wait to see what his replacement has to say.

In the meantime,

unvote

vote: Ivan

The case is that despite posting a fair amount, I don't feel that he has developed any authentic scum reads, and if he has, he doesn't seem terribly interested in making them stick. His most fully developed case is the one against me, which is all based on old info. He first presented it in D1, and never responded to my defense. Then today, when he was again asked to present a case, he more or less reposted his original case and claimed that my response was not satisfactory. If this was the case, and if he really thought I was scum, I would expect him to both continue pressuring me and point out my failures in an attempt to get others to lynch me. He did neither, which leads me to believe he neither believes in his case nor wishes to lynch scum. Other than this, I find his sarcastic attitude quite anti-town, though not necessarily scummy.

Last point is that after reading this thread he posted in Mafia Discussion, which I mostly agree with, I don't see how he implemented his town mindset into day 1 play. Particularly:

What I mean by "town must look town" is that you must reveal what your role is simply by being truthful. You aren't trying to "look town" as much as you are trying to share your true feelings with the town in a way that is helpful and productive. This means you want to play honestly, openly, and amicably

Granted, Ivan is a hydra, and not all of the play has been archaebob's, but I find that a lot of Ivan's play has been the opposite of honest, open, amicable, helpful, and productive. The sarcasm, the reluctance to post cases, the inability to form a coherent opinion with his other head, none of these are consistent with what he, himself, has said a town player should be doing, which leads me to think that he is, in fact, scum.

If we get to the deadline, and no other cases are solidifying, I'll be happy to hammer Jily, but as it stands, I feel like the town is settling for the default lynch, which is ok as long as we do it while also simultaneously using our limited time trying to uncover and develop more reads, but I do not want to lynch a lurker with a week left before the deadline without digging around a bit more

[subgenius]

Well since, i had already said my vote was going on Jily out of her and Koolzzy, and now that Koolzzy being replaced, im going forward with my vote on Jily. This pushes her to L-1

VOTE:Jilynne1991

How does Koolzzy being replaced affect your decision to finally vote Jily?

[subgenius]

2ndly, i am now leaning scum on subsy

Now is the part where you make a case. I realize that hopping off the Jily wagon will raise some eyebrows, but even though I think she's scummy, I'm nowhere near sure enough to lynch her without trying to stir up more leads for D3. The problem is that I think most of the evidence against her is from Sleepy's D1 actions. She has done nothing to redeem her player slot, and she's hardcore lurking, but I feel like we're skipping the information gathering stage of D2 if we go ahead and lynch someone based on D1 info without first trying to generate more information. Jily is fully deserving of a lynch, but we're cheating ourselves if we do it right this minute. I know this looks like I'm defending her, but I'm just trying to suggest the course of action I think is most beneficial for town.

were not really guna get a lynch on someone being replaced anyway.

I don't agree with this, we've practically settled on Jily within a week of her replacing in, why couldn't we do it with Koolzzy? Also, why wouldn't you want to at least hear what the replacement has to say before the end of the day, especially if you really thought the slot is scum? That kind of information could be quite valuable, even if it doesn't lead to a lynch today.

[subgenius]

Not sure if that theory works when the two wagons are artificially built as a result of a plan. If the two wagons are naturally occurring, I'd agree with this, but this wouldn't be the situation if Magic's plan was enacted.

[subgenius]

Ah nice. In my last game, Scott replaced in and nailed two scum almost immediately. Hopefully he can do the same here.

[subgenius]

Why do people always start calling me 'Subsy' when they think I'm scum? It's quite irritating.

Anyhow, I'll address your points.

--615/718: You're entitled to your opinion, but I can't really say much unless you're more specific.
--Late join of the Archo wagon: I might not have been voting for Archo, but I was pressuring the hell out of him for the majority of the day. I would have been happy lynching either one, but Arco was the one that had a wagon form on him, so I joined it. My suspicions of Arco should have been abundantly clear long before I cast that vote.
--511: I don't like the game stagnating, and at that point, that's what I felt was happening. Sometimes I'll make a move just to stir things up.
--Agreeing with Jily or Kool lynch: You're not reading this correctly. I agreed to your plan to pressure the lurkers. I did not agree to blindly build a wagon until a lynch took place.
--Deciding Jily wagon isn't good anymore: Again, read more carefully, Koolzy being replaced has nothing to do with my concerns on the Jily wagon. My concern with the Jily wagon is that it doesn't require any further scum hunting, and it feels like we're just settling on the easiest lynch.

Two questions for you Beck.
1)Earlier you wrote:

i'm not suggesting [Jilynne] be lynched just yet, but putting her at L-2 isn't a bad idea right now.

Now you seem to be voting for lynching rather than pressure. Is this true, and what changed your mind?
2)Why do you now think Ivan is town?

People seem to be shifting to a town read on Ivan, and it utterly baffles me.

[subgenius]

where did you get the impression I think ivan is town

Post 567

yeah, as much as it pains me to admit it, Ivan is becoming more and more of a town read, I really just want to bang my head against a brick wall than admit it is true.

You never did explain that statement.

I think it is odd that you were following his orders when he told you to vote greymarble, and now all of a sudden you vote him. Why the 180?

I had a neutral read on Ivan at that time, but I happened to agree with him that Grey's behavior was pretty scummy. My opinion of Ivan has only declined since then. It wasn't a 180, more like a 90.

[subgenius]

Why did you flip on Ivan, what changed your mind

I think the period of time where he did nothing but post sarcastic one liners plus realizing that he hasn't come up with any new scum reads since yesterday.

[subgenius]

Are you suggesting we manufacture reads so that you can feel better about how townie we're being?

That's pretty much what I'm suggesting. I'm not seeing any authenticity in your reads. Either you're being lazy about scum hunting or you're scum. Since there are two of you, and you've maintained a pretty decent post rate, I'm thinking you've had plenty of time to come up with scum reads that make more sense and act upon them. You haven't, so I'm thinking you're scum.

@Beck
Your position on Ivan isn't really making sense right now. You said you were leaning town on Ivan as recently as post 740, but as soon as Scott called you on using the "too scummy to be scum" argument, you changed your stance to saying Ivan is actually scummy, but he just shouldn't be lynched today, which seems like more of a neutral read at best. I'm not quite sure what to make of the inconsistency, but the town read followed by a quick retreat seems strange to me. I don't quite understand how you can say someone looks town in one post and then say we can lynch them later an hour and half afterwards.

[subgenius]

Whatever, call it a misrep, but it looks strange to me. Notice I never said scummy, I said strange. If I have a town read, I don't start laying groundwork for possibly lynching them later. My guess is that your read wasn't strong in the first place, since you didn't even remember making it, but felt compelled to back it up anyway for the sake of consistency. Then you took the opportunity to back off on your read when Scott commented about the dangers of accepting "too scummy to be scum", since you didn't really believe it that strongly to begin with.

I'm not sure it matters, but I thought the sequence of posts was strange.

[subgenius]

Beck, I hate to keep harping on you, because I really do feel like you're town, but could you explain when Ice ended up on your lynchable list? Looking through your ISO, I don't see anything suggesting suspicion of him. At one point, you said you thought he was a mason, and now he's on your short list of lynch targets. To be clear, I feel good about your play so far, but I'd feel better if I knew what made you change your read on him.

[subgenius]

Alright that makes sense, although I'm surprised that even while you're giving so much credence to the non-mason list, and Ivan is on it, and you admit he has acted scummy, you still don't consider him a legitimate lynch target today. Did you read the link to Archaebob's post about Day 1 play for townies?

[subgenius]

Seems you are so concerned about him, have anything to do with the fact he is voting you?

I make every attempt to be as object as I possibly can, but I'm sure I'm subconsciously paying more attention to him because he's voting for me, but I don't vote for everyone that votes for me. There needs to be something more. My problem with Ivan isn't that he's voting for me, it's that his case seems pretty weak, and it's pretty much all he's contributed the entire game.

The thing with Ivan is more of a gut read ATM , his play as scum doesn't make sense

Now if people make valid reasons why his play = scum, I'll listen. But Bering a scummy player as town many times before, I don't feel like he is scum.

I can't argue with a gut read. I made my case in post 718, and I don't have a lot to add to it. I feel like it's strong enough to at least consider seriously. At the core of the case is the simple point that I don't get the impression that Ivan has much interest in lynching scum. He's alluded to scum reads here and there but hasn't done much to pursue them or demonstrate that he sincerely believes his scum lists. I would also suggest reading Archaebob's thread in Mafia Discussion, because his idea of how a townie should act does not at all resemble how Ivan has acted.

Also, I don't see how you can think that Ivan has been helpful. He didn't actually provide anything substantive today until I had asked him several times (to which his first response was a veiled threat), and when he did post a case, it was a rehash of what he already had from yesterday. If I hadn't asked him to back up his scum list, I have little doubt that he would still be voting for Tommy with nothing but a one line explanation about how he agreed with Llama's case. Instead, he's now voting for me apparently partly as retaliation for actually demanding that he do something.

He's not doing anything without being provoked, and then when he does do something, he gives no evidence that he is still actively looking for scum. The guy is absolutely not helping. He's not even being the brash and aggressive scummy type player that I'm guessing you're frequently accused of being. He's lurking and only acting when someone shines the flashlight in his direction.

[subgenius]

post edit: Let me revise lurking in the last sentence to "not contributing". He's posting at a decent rate, but they're largely empty posts, which I consider more disturbing in many ways than not posting at all.

[subgenius]

Why would SK lynch not be desirable?

Remember, I'm not saying a Jilynne lynch isn't desirable. I'm saying it's not desirable a week before the deadline. I think Jilynne is quite scummy, and a good lynch, but I don't want to lynch her with a week left in the day without trying to get people to discuss opinions about other issues. I think if we allow people to lynch her without enough discussion as a simple default lynch, we'll be a little bit screwed if she turns out town. I think SK was scummy, but I'm not sure enough to want to see us start D3 with precious little more information than we had at the beginning of D2.

Also, what are your thoughts on marble's play thus far?

Not good. I'm strongly considering moving my vote to his wagon since I clearly can't get anything going on Ivan.

My lynch picks for today are Llama, Ivan, or Jilynne.

[subgenius]

First I'll address a few specific points:

He is much to reasonable. He answers everything asked of him carefully in a way that won't spark any controversy. He is quick to agree with other people's opinions, but has a few in mind that he won't agree with. It all reads like play acting.

*shrug* I don't have a problem with being called too reasonable. I've agreed with what I agreed with and disagreed with what I disagree with. If you can show how any of my opinions are insincere or scum motivated, maybe this would be more persuasive.

More tangibly, read the sentence where he actually votes achro. There is very little actual reasoning in it despite all the logical discussion regarding other issues above.

Perhaps if you weren't skimming to drum up a case, you would have noticed that most of the reasoning for voting Acro is in the first paragraph of the post. I just didn't actually vote until the end.

They aren't scum, they're "fishy."

One thing you'll find about me is that I very rarely call anyone scummy unless I'm convinced that there is no way to justify a town person doing what they're doing. Suspicious or fish or strange simply means something that doesn't quite make sense from my understanding of the game but might have a town explanation. Scummy is something that has no possible town excuse. I don't run in to things like that very often.

rather it is a "good lynch," not a "scum lynch,"

Similar to above. I'd need to be 95% sure that someone was scum before I declared that we were going to have a scum lynch. Unfortunately, I'm almost never that sure, and anyone who claims to be that sure is generally delusional, lying, or a cop.

however notice that the part dealing with us starts with "In the meantime," so I suppose we're expected to think that there is something else he plans to get to that will take precedence over voting us.

You're acting as if I'm trying to be sneaky here. I straight out said that I would be happy to hammer Jillyne later, but I thought we were moving too fast and with too little discussion. Therefor, I decided to do something else. I'm still in the same frame of mind. I'll happily lynch Jilynne, but I'm quite glad that we haven't done it yet since we're seeing a surge in activity right now that might have been skipped over if we had simply settled on Jilynne.

Anyhow, you've thoroughly explained why you think I'm scum. It seems to rely primarily on word choice, which I've never found especially compelling, but at least you made a full case that didn't rely entirely on material from D1.

However, you still have three other suspects that you have said almost nothing about. What did you think of Magic's plan to wagon Jily and Dakoolzy? That plan had a chance of putting two of your suspects, Rblinker and Tommy, on the spot, but you never commented on it at all.

[subgenius]

Reducing the lynch pool wasn't Scott's idea. He just picked up on it and has been a bit more vocal about it than some others. I think it was originally Beck's or Llama's idea. I'd have to check to make sure who.

[subgenius]

I was in a game with masons a few months ago, but I don't think they had day talk. Not all that relevant, though. I think Tommy is right. Yank was more concerned with making sure his personal scum reads couldn't claim mason (thereby forcing the real masons to claim) than naming mason scum reads. There's some interesting math that could emerge from that list depending on how the game continues which could be very helpful for finding scum, but I don't think we're quite there yet. At this point, I'd like to stick to the list in large part to avoid accidentally outing another mason.

[subgenius]

We've hardly heard from you for the last 2 days. I hope you'll have content in the mean time.

[subgenius]

I'm not gone yet.

unvote, vote: Subgenius

We'll get to Tommy when I'm out of here.

I'm not interested in Subgenius's comments on our case. I would like other people to respond.

So this is Ivan the terrible? This really is ridiculous. The amount of slack your being given because you're a schizophrenic hydra is getting to be pretty unreasonable.

[subgenius]

That's not a compromise, that's two people pulling in opposite directions when the can get away with it without ever coming to an agreement. From your perspective you might see two people separately pursuing their individual goals, but from the perspective of the rest of us, we see one entity who is rapidly oscillating between two different goals without every reconciling them into a cohesive view. It makes it incredibly difficult to read what the hell your slot is trying to do and why.

Usually when I try to read a player, I look at how their opinions progress and if that progression makes sense. That is impossible with you, and it's incredibly frustrating. People have asked that you two try to cooperate better, but you still haven't done it, nor do you even seem to be making an attempt, yet people are just letting it slide for some reason. More than once you've dismissed questions and requests for clarification by denying responsibility for what the other head has posted. I found it frustrating before, and I continue to find it frustrating. I don't know what else to say about it other than that I'm going to do my best to never play in a game with hydras again, because this whole experience has been intensely irritating. Too many players have been able to delay reactions and information on the basis of waiting for their partner, and those who haven't waited are acting as two separate players. It's a damn travesty, and I'm quite tired of it. Thank goodness most of the hydras have dropped out or been replaced by single players, because they've all been godawful.

[subgenius]

ICE is an experienced enough player to draw his own conclusions. He read your post and formed an opinion. Don't try to spin it as if he's the victim of some sort of scum frame job.

[subgenius]

I feel like you're reaching here Beck. If you felt that it was necessary to refer to my random vote on you as "going after you" and then accuse me of flip flopping because I developed a town read on you after you happened to be my random vote, you probably already realize that your case doesn't have a lot going for it.

I don't like that he was pushing hard on SK day 1 for defending Acro, than later switched his vote to Yank fro a really really weak reason, than later votes Acro, essentially ignoring his huge day 1 argument that SK was most likely scum of the 2, he joins the acro wagon really late

I switched my vote to Acro, because he was my second pick and there was obviously no support for an SK lynch that day. If I can't get my preferred lynch, but I can get my second choice, I'll take it every time, and I'd expect anyone else to do the same.

looking at the vote count and his votes, what I found odd is that he basically followed captain spoon around or has joined the largest wagon, with the exception to his very first vote which he put on me.

This might not be reflected in the vote counts, but I've spent a fair amount of time on some pretty poorly attended wagons, SK, Ivan, and Greymarble come to mind. You're either misrepresenting or maybe the vote counts aren't as reliable since they're somewhat infrequent in this game, but to say I'm floating from large wagon to large wagon is simply false.

however I feel that Sub's posting has gotten progressively worse.

This is the only part of your post I agree with. I'll admit that my posting is weaker today than yesterday. I've lost momentum on my reads, and I'm having trouble picking it back up again. I feel quite strongly about Ivan, but nobody seems to agree with me, and interrogating my other main suspect, Jillyne will do little good at the moment. I'm stuck and frustrated, and it's making me play poorly. Or I'm stuck and frustrated because I'm playing poorly. I don't know which, but I know that I'm not having much fun at the moment.

[subgenius]

I can't support a marble wagon because Ice is supporting a marble wagon and since I believe he has proven his ability to make good decision making sucks, I will not be on any wagon he is pushing.

That's got to be one of the worst reasons I've ever seen for avoiding a wagon.

Earlier you clearly said that Jilynne, Llama, and ICE were your lynch candidates today. You've eliminated two of those players, yet you're not voting for the third. If you have such a low opinion of ICE, and he's on your lynchable list, and you don't want to vote for your other two candidates, why aren't you voting for ICE right now? Also, Not having a solid case on Llama didn't seem to bother you when you made a list of lynch candidates, so why does it bother you now? Your reasons for dodging the Llama wagon scream bullshit.

[subgenius]

I'm not going to make a case on Llama, I'm going to ask you again why you said Llama was one of your top choices for lynches today, and now you're saying you don't see a case for him. Let's also look at the difference between these posts:

marble's lack of scum hunting is interesting too,

plus that rush to hammer was bad.

You can't learn much from a hammer really

The only difference I can see between now and then is that a Llama lynch is looking a lot more likely now than it was when you made your first statement, and now when we're getting close to the deadline and Llama is the second biggest wagon, all of a sudden you don't think he's a good lynch.

I'm seeing a strong Beck/Llama connection.

Lets see what happens when I do this:

unvote

vote: Llama

[subgenius]

My case on Llama is that you're backing off on your willingness to lynch him with extremely lame reasoning. Explain yourself well enough and maybe you'll convince me that I shouldn't vote for your buddy.

[subgenius]

Beck, you're falling apart here. You're really expecting us to believe you intended to vote for Jilynne after writing:

now that being said and the game now being over Jilly was scum and was much more active when close to a lynch, in this game she still is just like whatever so using meta from that one game, I am un-sure about he alliance

Those are reasons why you're not voting her, and now you're claiming you meant to vote for her in this post and just plain forgot? I don't believe that for a millisecond.

Secondly, the proper response to my demand that you explain yourself was to tell me to screw off and possibly recast your vote for me. After all, it had just been helpfully pointed out by your friend Llama that I'm probably not a mason, which clears the way for you to vote for me, and if you've been entirely truthful about your opinions, my refusal to make a case can't have improved your already low opinion of me. If you're a townie, and you think I'm scum, you would have nailed me on continuing to refuse to make a case. Instead, you retreated back to the Jily vote, which I now believe is the counter wagon to Llama.

[subgenius]

The fact Sub is pretty much trying to deflect from the jilly wagon is also very telling

Sure it is. If we go ahead and lynch Jilly, and she flips scum, I'll have some serious egg on my face. I don't think that's how things will go, though.

can you get any scummier sub?

I said based on jilly's play in another game, I am un-sure of her alliance this game

So you're voting for the player you're unsure of rather than the one who can't get any scummier?

as for the hammer, I honestly don't think mafia would be dumb enough to hammer someone they know is going to flip town AND SAY THEY THINK THEY ARE GOING TO FLIP TOWN

that would be the stupidest thing mafia could do.

So after some pressing you do manage to find some reasons why you no longer think the hammer is scummy, and they follow the same lame formula of "too scummy to be scum".

If I was scum, I'd do X. I didn't do X, therefor, I'm not scum.

Possibly the worst argument that still manages to show up in every game of mafia ever played.

[subgenius]

Sub is "LOLOL I VOTE U BY ASSOCIATOIN TO PROBTOWNBECK"

Beck is no longer probtown, and your defense via mockery does you little credit.

[subgenius]

Sub, clearly I don't care if you think I'm pro town, you have proven you are scum by trying to twist everything to make it seen scummy

Maybe you ought to start caring, because apparently you're starting to register on other players' scumdars as well.

You are trying to twist the jilly thing around too cause I don't use her meta as a reason to keep her around

You're flat out lying when you say you intended to vote Jilynne when you unvoted me. There's absolutely nothing you can say to change my mind on that. I called you on why you weren't following through with your reads, and you immediately caved and cast a vote while making up a story about how you just forgot earlier. It's utter bullshit, and there's no reason for town to do it.

Acro town flip confirms SK is most likely scum yet you are distancing from her lynch now.

Please explain how an Acro town flip in any way confirms SK as scum. At best, it means SK was possibly scum buddying townie, but Acro's flip in no way confirms that. If we lynch Jilynne today, it's because she was lurking and his zealous defense of Acro was highly questionable, but Acro's alignment is irrelevant. If Acro had flipped scum, SK's defense would have been just as scummy and probably scummier. You're just saying things without making sense.

[subgenius]

1. I wasn't lying, I meant to re-vote jilly. If your opinion was you think I'm lying, fine.

I know we'll never agree on this, so we'll just have to leave it to the judgement of others. My opinion is that your sentence summarizing your stance of Jily as unsure and weakening was in no way a lead in for a vote on her. If you were planning on voting her, you would have added something else that would justify your vote despite losing confidence in your own read. You didn't.

Acro town flip Makes a good case for SK being scum, you even agreed with that cause thats why you voted Sk day one, you even said this

None of that has anything to do with how Acro might flip. Anyhow, I developed new reads, and they've affected my perspective on Jilynne. If not for the fact that you and Llama being scum pretty much eliminates the possibility of Jilynne being scum, I'd still say there's a good chance of her flipping mafia, but I think you two are scummier, so I'm forced to re-evaluate my thoughts on Jilynne. It would be nice if I could include Jilynne in a scum list with you and Llama, but I don't see it making any sense (unless you're both bussing her, which I suppose is a possibility).

What marble did doesn't make sense as marble scum

Hammering another player for the sake of self-preservation is the definition of making sense as scum. Add in this business between you two, and I'm pretty confident.

[subgenius]

I'm pointing out that the reasoning behind the votes on my wagon is scumlogic.

No, that's not what you were pointing out. You said the votes were lazy and shallow. You didn't say they were motivated by scum logic.

Also voting somebody 'cause you think there's an association between them and somebody else is HORRIBLE

I thought you thought Tommy was scum because he doesn't want to lynch Jilynne after voting for Acro, which made you think that he's scum with Jilynne. If there's a difference between this and "an association" between players, I'll admit that I can't really see it.

Hammering someone for self preservation is something town wouldn't do?

You are full of shit.

Jesus Christ, when did I say it wasn't something town would do? I said it was something that made perfect sense as scum. That doesn't mean that town would never do it, but they sure as hell shouldn't, especially with so much time left in the day.

You dont support a jilly lynch now because what?

I already explained why in an earlier post. If you'd kindly explain what you can't understand, I'll clarify it.

What has she done to make you think she is not scum anymore?

Nothing, but now I think you're scum, and Jilynne being scum doesn't really fit into that theory of events.

That hammer, while very bad, isn't grounds enough to lynch over SK

I thought we can't learn anything from hammers. Maybe I'd believe you had no interest in Llama's survival if you didn't try to justify his behavior and then revise your opinions when people don't buy your excuses.

[subgenius]

Is there a different thread somewhere that has another person named Subgenius that you're responding to?

1. It's completely WIFOM, and if Llama really did feel like he was on the way to being lynched, scum Llama would have every reason to hammer.
2. Because if you and Llama are scum, then Jilynne has every appearance of being a counter wagon, since you two are pushing it, and pushing it doubly hard now that attention is shifted in your direction.
3. I really don't think I'm mis-repping anything, but I think we both realize that other players will have to make that decision.
4. So are you saying it was bad, but not scummy? If so, I misinterpreted what you've been trying to say recently. Also, I don't believe that was you meant in Post 754 when you wrote:

Need to re-read ice next but jilly's slot is already scummy so I'm okay with her, marble's lack of scum hunting is interesting too, plus that rush to hammer was bad.

Unless I see something absolutely horrible from ice, the top choices for today I think are jilly and marble

You definitely said that his hammer was bad in the context of supporting a scum read.

In every other game, that person would be lynched ASAP but somehow this game the replacement flakes and gets a free pass?

I thought that was meta in her favor?

[subgenius]

1. but so would town llama, which is why you can't use that as a reason to lynch anyone

1. Ok, talk to Tommy about it. I'm not voting for Llama based on the hammer.

2. you realize jily's wagon was largest first, she was at L-1 I believe and now marble's wagon is growing to L-2. Marble's wagon is the epitome of a counter wagon. where do you come up with this stuff for real?

2. Actually, if you look at the vote counts, Jilynne's wagon didn't pick up until later in the day, after Grey already had some attention and votes. And the wagon was at your suggestion, as a matter of fact.

3. you have mis-repped me and I called you on it.

3. *shrug* Keep repeating it. We'll have to wait until some other people to show up to find out who's actually misrepping who.
4. You're abusing the vaguenss of the word 'bad'. When you first used it, you meant scummy, now you mean poor play. I'd simply direct everyone to read Post 754, and consider whether Beck's use of looking 'bad' in that post means "poor player" or "scum".

I'm going to wait for some more players to chime in before I add any more. I'm growing concerned that there will be too much bickering between the two of us to actually read through, and they'll skim it, which would be a shame.

[subgenius]

Before you make your case, explain why day starts and you go after gray and not jilly. Starting day 2, the person who looked the worst out of everyone was gray for his hammer, but you just said you aren't voting gray for his hammer.

Trying to vote for Llama during day 1 might have been following someone else's strategy, but I did it for my own reasons. Bear in mind, I didn't realize Llama had hammered at that point. I was voting for him because I felt that he was lurking, dodging questions, and suggesting fake scum reads. I didn't think he was scummier than Acro at that point, but I was persuaded by Ivan's suggestion that we still had time to pressure Llama, then get back to Acro. When Day 2 rolled around, I was pretty fired up about the hammer and still hadn't had a resolution to my original reasons for voting Grey, so I voted him. Grey explained himself, which I half accepted and appreciated that he was beginning to post a bit more and explain himself, so I moved onto Jlynnne.

Oh hey, Sub's reading. Watcha thinking about bro?

Honestly? I'm thinking of how tired I am of arguing with Beck.

[subgenius]

Let me try again, what do you think about Tommy?

I think you made a thorough case that Tommy needs to address, but I don't think it's necessarily a slam dunk that will inspire a serious Tommy wagon. My personal read on Tommy is null. He hasn't done anything that's particularly caught my attention, which I suppose is in agreement with your case, but I don't especially associate blandness with scummyness.

why when Jilly was close to a lynch today did you try and start one on ivan and when that failed joined the marble wagon?

How about reading the damn thread to find out why I left the Jilly wagon and voted ivan and then Marble, because I've done my best to explain my thought process at each step. I'm getting really tired of re-explaining reasoning that's already available in the thread.

can you please enlighten us to what your day 1 reasons were because that is basically have you have failed to do all game

I was voting for him because I felt that he was lurking, dodging questions, and suggesting fake scum reads.

Sub has basiclly buddied/sheeped people, voted without reasons, attempted to start a counter wagon on Jilly, mis-repped/straw manned, and i am sure I could find examples of other things

So vote me, then. There's only been one other game I've played where I was hoping for an early death out of tedium and irritation, and I managed to act obvtown enough to get myself night killed on the first night. Doesn't look like I'll be able to pull that off this game, so do me a favor and quit talking about how scummy you think I am and start giving a serious try to lynching me. I'm sick of it.

[subgenius]

So according to you, I'm what, "reverse bussing" to sacrifice myself for jilly's benefit? That must be an interesting world view to have, I guess.

[subgenius]

Decision time Sub, you said multiple times you thought jilly was scummy

Yep, deadline is approaching and it's time to decide. I still don't think it was a bad decision to delay the lynch, since the action really picked up in the second half of the day. The downside is that apparently I made an ass of myself during the extra time. Looking back over things, I'm starting to have trouble seeing how my own case makes sense, so it's probably time to back off. I still think there was something to the original issues I raised, and I'm going to be keeping a closer eye on Beck in particular, but in retrospect I pursued too aggressively and painted myself into a corner. Hopefully, it doesn't end up being a fatal error.

I think there's a good chance that Jilynne is scum, but I'm still not certain, which is largely why I suggested delaying the lynch in the first place. Nothing has changed about Jily since then, so my opinion about her hasn't changed too much. That being said, the deadline is here, and I'll hammer her as I promised if a replacement hasn't been found by tomorrow afternoon. My primary concern at this point is that if she's lynched and flips town, I'm probably next in line for lynching, which will quite likely cost the town the game. If she flips scum, I'm still probably next in line for lynching, but at least we'll have earned another day of play by lynching scum.

Hammer incoming in 24 hours.

[subgenius]

screw it, the new replacement has me feeling a little bit better, he deserves another day at least.

sheeping every single wagon and than teetering between both jilly and marble like that

Vote: subgenius

Sheeping if done once or twice is probably no big deal, but his reads and votes have blown in the wind following multiple people which I have proven and that post that I just pointed out to Ice, is about as close as an admission to guilt if I ever saw one. That post reaks.

we have 3 extra days, let's spend this time getting Sub to explain why he has sheeped everyone.

Yeah, I've been on the big wagons, but I've also spent more time than most people trying to get pressure going on people that were not a huge focus of attention. The attention on SK was mostly my doing, I was trying to get something going on Ivan when few others were doing it, and I was trying to draw you out when nobody else had a scum read on you. I won't deny that I've settled on some wagons, but to say that's all I've done is simply not true. I've been actively trying to stir things up and force people to explain themselves in a game where a lot of people have been lurking or parking on easy wagons. In the process, I've come out looking pretty dirty, but even if I get lynched today, I think we'll be better off than we would be if we had lynched Jilynne a week ago. So I can't say I completely regret anything.

This is essentially an admission of guilt in my eyes

So nice of you to be magnanimous when I admit that I might have been mistaken in some of my reads.

This is so obviously contrived it's not even funny. How long did you spend calculating how well asking for a vote was going to go over? Were you sweating thinking about whether or not people would think that was scummy, or just too bold to be scummy? Sorry, but you failed.

Actually, I was pretty sure people would find it scummy, but I don't really care. That's how I feel about the game at the moment. It's feeling like an utter chore. I'm not finding any reads that are working for me, and at the same time, I'm being insulted and attacked, and at the same time I'm pretty sure I'd be doing the same if the situation was reversed. It pretty well sucks.


P.S. I'm quite impressed that Gitah managed to produce a fairly decent catch up in such a short period of time.

[subgenius]

(Oh btw this is just for shits n giggles but guess who's missing from this list?)

That's not even a list. It's a sequence of responses to people that I spoilered so the quotes didn't take up too much space. Why do you think Acro is on there three times?

[subgenius]

Alright, so let's try to address some issues here.

Sheeping- I think this is absurd. I've been spending more time trying to pressure players that aren't receiving pressure than just about anyone else in this game. Why do people sheep? To slip under the radar unnoticed or to push promising mislynch wagons to a successful vote. Can anyone seriously try to argue that I've been trying to slip under the radar in this game? I've been sticking my neck out for the majority of the game, and it's finally caught up with me. Nobody could argue that I've been trying to slip under the radar. Secondly, I don't think you can look at my voting history and argue that I've been simply trying to push wagons to a lynch. I tried to move my vote after Acro was lynched because I thought pressuring Grey would be more useful than hammering Acro. Then why did I try to put the breaks on the Jilynne wagon? Again, I wanted to pressure more people before we lynched. Anyone who has done more than skim the vote counts should know that I have not been settling on large wagons and waiting for a lynch. Sheeping is an easy buzzword accusation, and it simply isn't true. Not even a little.

Case against Beck- I took what I think began as a valid point and took it too far. I don't think I was completely wrong, but I think I took a small bit of information and began trying to draw grand conclusions out of it. I was overly enthusiastic, and it looks bad. I'm just going to have to admit that I got carried away. There's not enough to lynch Beck on, but please people, read Beck closely and make sure the development of his opinions is making sense.

[subgenius]

Yeah, I think there's a pretty decent chance of each of them being scum. I wish I could say I was sure on any one of them.

Ivan: I still feel like Ivan has been stubborn and unwilling to contribute until he is confronted. This is not townie play. If I hadn't gotten on his case, he'd probably still be drifting by with nothing but one liners and unsupported scum lists.
Jilly: Any scum read on her comes from what I had on SK. Jilynne seemed like a bored 13 year old, not necessarily scum. Tough to draw any conclusions on Gitah yet, but 'A' for effort at the very least.
Llama: Originally, I voted Llama primarily as a means of seeing what your reaction would be. I, for one, still think that his blatant sacrifice of Acro out of bare self-preservation is a significant scum tell. Perhaps it isn't damning, but it's one of the biggest scum tells that has been dropped all game, and unfortunately, I just can't find anything that would make me think he's town. He hasn't produced much in the way of scum hunting. Plus I still don't like you backing away from saying the hammer was a scum tell. I can't prove it, but I still feel like there's a solid chance you two are scum partners. Most recently, I would really prefer that he not try to narrow the mason list down. Trying to pave the way for my lynch is one thing, but try to do it without exposing the remaining PR's.
For what it's worth, I'd probably be willing to vote for you if I thought it would go anywhere.

[subgenius]

Can no one else see the glaring difference in my situation now and D1? Of course I'm trying to look town, but some might call it defending myself. Today, I stand a good chance of being lynched, which I wouldn't want to happen regardless of whether I'm town or scum.

[subgenius]

NEET?

[subgenius]

Changing stances is a scum tell? Changing stances with scummy intentions is a scum tell, but not simply changing stances. You're throwing around buzz words like changing stances and sheeping. I'm not going to say you haven't made case, but lately you're just saying things that have a sinister connotation without really saying anything.

[subgenius]

@Beck
I suppose I inferred that when you responded to ICE's assertion that Tommy and I are scumbuddies by saying that we had both changed our stances, I assumed that you were supporting his assertion. I'm not saying I want more, I just find it irritating when people throw in a one liner without clearly making a point.

@Magic
Ice is looking town to me.
Ivan, Llama, and Beck scum. I'm embarrassed at how blatantly OMGUS that list is, but there it is anyway.

[subgenius]

Ivan: I still feel like Ivan has been stubborn and unwilling to contribute until he is confronted. This is not townie play. If I hadn't gotten on his case, he'd probably still be drifting by with nothing but one liners and unsupported scum lists.

Llama: Originally, I voted Llama primarily as a means of seeing what your reaction would be. I, for one, still think that his blatant sacrifice of Acro out of bare self-preservation is a significant scum tell. Perhaps it isn't damning, but it's one of the biggest scum tells that has been dropped all game, and unfortunately, I just can't find anything that would make me think he's town. He hasn't produced much in the way of scum hunting. Plus I still don't like you backing away from saying the hammer was a scum tell.

And Beck because there have been a number of times where I haven't felt like your opinions and stances are developing naturally. You forgot that you ever had a town read on Ivan, which makes me think that you were full of it when you made the read in the first place. You contradicted yourself about the Llama hammer. I still feel like there's a link between you and Llama.

@Magic
Here's a link to a longer case on Ivan if you're interested. post 718
Bearing in mind how much of the heat I'm facing is because of my grandiose accusations against Beck and Llama, I think it's pretty silly to say that I"m picking the shallowest and easiest things to talk about. Granted, I'm being pretty lazy about my cases at this point, but that's mostly because I hold very little hope that they would do me much good. Anyhow, I think the read on Beck and Llama is anything but shallow and non-messy. Nobody else picked up Beck backing off his Llama scum read. Nobody else felt like questioning him about his shift on Llama's hammer. Nobody else called Beck on "forgetting" to vote for Jilynne after unvoting me. You can disagree with these opinions, but to say that they're shallow and clean is not accurate. If you're going to lynch me, do it because you think I was over pursuing a player most people think is town, or lynch me because I didn't want to lynch Jilynne after suspecting SK all of D1, but don't lynch me for making easy and inoffensive cases. That's just inaccurate.

What's your straightforward, full read on him?

You're surprised I didn't mention a player I described as bland as one of my three strongest reads? I've taken note of his defense of me, and I'm not sure what to make of it. I've taken note of him mirroring my attacks on Beck, and again, I'm not sure what to make of it. All I can come up with is WIFOM. On the one hand, I don't think it makes sense for scum to attach himself to the cases of a sinking ship, so maybe he's town. On the other hand, he might think defending me will provide town cred after I die. Reading back over his ISO, I agree with a lot of the things he's said, but then I disagree with how easily he returned to a town read on Beck now that it looks pretty clear that I'm going down. Sorry to disappoint you, but my straightforward read on Tommy is, "I don't know."

If I absolutely had to pick, I'd say I lean town on him based on his opinions matching my own quite frequently. We had similar views on the Jilynne wagon, similar views on Magic's plan for competing wagons, similar views about Ivan, etc. I wish he was more aggressive, but I can't come up with any solid reason to think he's scum.

I guess that was more stream of conscious than straightforward, but hopefully that's sufficient.

[subgenius]

One more thing, I think shallow easy cases are the ones that tend to work. Anything too complex either gets ignored or is too easy to poke holes in. Lesson learned.

[subgenius]

Llama>Beck>Gitah or Ivan

[subgenius]

Btw, what the heck happened to Blinker? Is he being prodded? It's been more than 4 days.

[subgenius]

UNOFFICIAL VC

Subgenius (4)- Ivan the Pleasant, Beck, Magic Trainer, Llamarble
Jilynne1991 (2)- Captain Spoon, rblinker123
Llamarble (4) - Scott Brosius, Tommy, ICEninja, Subgenius

Not Voting: Giit

Looking at that VC, I think the main difference between the two wagons is playstyle. I think the folks on me are more of a gut/intuition crowd, and the people on Llama are a more logic/deliberate thinking crowd. I'm not making a value judgement about which is the better way of playing, but I'm concerned that when it comes down to it, the separation between these two wagons isn't alignment based, it's personality type based. This doesn't change my read on those who are on either wagon, but I believe it's something to think about when analyzing the wagons.

[subgenius]

Why do people make such silly declarations? I said it earlier, and I'll say it again. If you're acting that certain, there are three possibilities: You're a power role of some sort, You're delusional, or You're lying. I know you're not a power role, because you're wrong. So you're either delusional or lying. I only hope people will put your feet to the fire if I'm lynched today and remember not to take you seriously the next time you try to sell people on a case with little more than bluster.

[subgenius]

Bonus points for an entertaining turn of phrase.

[subgenius]

I think that's reminding you that it's unwise to make your plans based on the assumption that you won't be NK'd, because you might end up inadvertently denying the town your oh-so-insightful opinions.

[subgenius]

@Llama

I don't think either blinker or CS were very into the case against me anyway, but you'd stand a better chance convincing them if you had put the effort into making a case like you said you would instead of blatantly changing your vote out of self preservation again.

Also, you continue to say that if you were scum you would have waited for someone else to drop the hammer since it almost certainly would have happened if you waited. The thing is, if you thought someone else would drop the hammer, why wouldn't you let them do it regardless of whether or not you were scum? The defense doesn't make sense as town or scum. If you were so sure someone else would have dropped the hammer, why did you feel so in danger in the first place? Thinking that Acro would have been hammered by someone else doesn't jibe with you feeling that you were in immediate danger.

[subgenius]

I skimmed that game Magic Trainer linked of Archaebob and Foilist. I won't comment on Foilist's play since I have no proof that he is one of Ivan's heads, but I will say that I'm not seeing much of the town Archaebob play from that game in Ivan's play this game. I don't put a lot of faith in meta, since I have yet to see anyone definitively caught based on it, but Archaebob was active, logical, and seemingly eager to explain his opinions in that game. I see little of that in this game. I've also mentioned his MD thread about proper town play (Fundamental Mentalities + Good Day 1 strategy), which bears little resemblance to Ivan's play this game. It's difficult to know how applicable this sort of thing is to a hydra, but it certainly agrees with my pre-existing scum read of Ivan.

Still supporting a Llama lynch, but I liked that link from Magic.

[subgenius]

Ivan, I have trouble believing that you actually think you're accomplishing anything with your last few posts. You're just running your mouth off without contributing anything, and you probably realize it. Yet, you don't do anything about it.

[subgenius]

Ivan, you're really accusing me of posting just enough to not get accused of lurking when I have the second highest number of posts and nearly twice as many as you? Sorry you think that gradually forming and changing opinions is a scum tell. It's just the way I think about the game.

@Beck
Isn't the point of defending yourself to make the other person back off? I began to realize that my case wasn't making sense, so I backed off.

[subgenius]

Well, I can't really argue with that, but just because you've never seen it doesn't make it scummy, just unusual.

[subgenius]

Nah, scummy is scummy. If you've seen scum do something several times and never seen town do it, then it might be scummy, but if you've never seen anyone do it, that doesn't make it scummy.

[subgenius]

Well, I've made my defenses and done my present my cases as I have them, so I'm not sure what there is to add. Obviously, I'd prefer we lynch Llama, but sadly, I don't have anything more to say that might persuade anyone. If anyone has any questions they'd like to ask of me now that I'm at L-1, I'll do my best to answer them.

Btw, I'm a vanilla townie.

[subgenius]

Sub, if I asked you to hammer yourself, would you do it?

Only if we were down to the last 15 minutes or so of the day and nobody else was stepping up. I think the town is better off going into D3 with a dead confirmed townie who a lot of people have established stances and opinions on than a no lynch.

[subgenius]

Well, if nothing else comes out of this, maybe the Ivans will be forced to re-examine the accuracy of their gut reads, but I'm guessing they'll blame me for being scummy town or something. Anyhow, I think my lynch will be informative, but I also feel like the end of this day has been a game of hot potato, and I just happen to be the one left holding the potato.

I still think special attention should be paid to Ivan. His scumhunting has been utterly lackluster, mostly consisting of insisting that his gut is correct. Llama still bears looking at since he has also continually procrastinated and postponed contributing. Beck for his habit of reinterpreting facts to suit his current reads rather than interpreting facts to find his reads (Llama's hammer is the biggest example of this), and don't forget that Gitah and Scott replaced into scummy slots.

This is the first time I've ever been lynched in anything other than 3 man LYLO.

[subgenius]

Also, I changed my mind. I'm not going to self hammer. Someone else needs to step up and do it, if they want it to happen.

[subgenius]

Nothing that I can think of. I've explained why I think the cases against me are weak. I've explained my reads on other players. I think everything is on the table. I'll admit that I'm not especially proud of my play this game, although I don't think it was poor enough to become the second day lynch. If Giitah turns out to be scum, I'll be really embarrassed, since we almost certainly would have lynched that slot if I hadn't put on the brakes. This has been a long enough day with enough twists and turns, that I think people will have more than enough to sift through tomorrow. Ivan, in particular, looks bad on this wagon, imo, but then there's Llama, again voting primarily in self-defense without ever presenting a case. Seems like a pretty crap wagon to me, but them's the breaks.

[subgenius]

I think I already said what I think on Tommy. Null read, but if someone put a gun to my head and forced me to pick town or scum, I'd pick town. I've found myself agreeing with him too much to think he's scum. I wish he was more aggressive, and it's certainly possible that I'm a naive victim of buddying scum, but I lean town on him.

[subgenius]

I sure hope someone who's willing to switch their vote is watching, because I'm not self hammering.

[subgenius]

Whew, Magic with the last second move. I have high hopes for Llama coming up scum. If he doesn't, I have few illusions about how screwed I am.

[subgenius]

Well played, scum. That makes me 0-5 on MS, which is a bit discouraging. The end of day 2 was pretty exciting, though, and I felt supremely vindicated when Llama flipped scum. I only wish I had lived through the night to bask in it for a moment. The amount of replacement going on in this game was really disappointing and affected the game negatively. Sotty, I think you did as well if not better than could have been reasonably expected. I was optimistic that you would pick Scott, but I can't blame you for going with Racer. Racer, why did you replace in if you didn't want to play the game?

One thing that blew me away about this game was how people who were being incredibly unhelpful and anti-town were getting passes (Ivan and Llama) while far less offensive players were getting a lot of negative attention (Me and ICE). That baffled me.

Ivan's play baffled me as well. I'd be interested in a more thorough explanation of their strategy, but I doubt we'll get it.

Any (constructive) criticism of my play is welcomed.

[subgenius]

I feel like it's an especially risky strategy if the SK in question was never bullet proof. I'd also like to hear more about why he decided to throw his strategy out the window to kill me, but I doubt any more info is forthcoming from either Ivan.

@Whiskers
I think it was obvious that the Ivans and Llama were a step above shitty players, though. They showed enough intelligence and commitment to play the game, but both were being seemingly purposely unhelpful, and people let it slide.

I think one of the biggest lessons of this game is that sometimes scum do obviously scummy things, and players should be held accountable for them. This was not a game of subtle scum tells in the case of Llama, Da Koolzy, and Ivan. Tommy and Scott, I felt were tougher to pin down, though.

[subgenius]

Town managing to lynch me D2 when I was at L-3 and sub at L-1 with hours to deadline was a miracle of towniness.

That was certainly the highlight of the game for me. I was serious when I said I would be willing to self hammer if it looked like a NL was on it's way, thinking that my death would be better than a NL, but then I decided, "Screw that, if they want to kill me, they'll have to vote for me and make it happen." I fully expected that I would be lynched in the end, I just hoped that the hammer would provide useful information for the town. Ending the day with a scum lynch was far beyond my hopes for how that situation would turn out.

I do feel badly about going so hard after Beck in D2. I really thought I was on to something, and kept on pushing even after I was starting to see faults in my own case. By the time I backed off, I had dug myself in way too deeply, and couldn't come up with a way to end the conversation gracefully.

[subgenius]

I'm still not seeing how you expected that plan to work without being NK immune. No matter how you cut it, it seems extremely unlikely that maf isn't going to try to shoot the claimed PR heading into LYLO. Also, according to foilist's post in the dead thread, you two weren't planning on killing anyone the entire game. What's up with that?

[subgenius]

He wasn't a claimed PR going into lylo-- or, rather, he claimed he expended his one-shot power (making him a former-PR).

Technically true, but it seems to me if a player makes a claim, and the town believes it, that player will have enhanced credibility going into LYLO, and it is in the mafia's best interest to NK him if possible rather than have to deal with it on the final day, regardless of whether or not the PR is expired. If Scott let Ivan live to LYLO, he'd have to either convince the third player that Ivan was lying or accept that the three man LYLO would be immediately narrowed down to two suspects. Neither seems appealing, so it's best to kill Ivan.