camn's temperamental - Mini 1232 - GAME OVER

[Fishythefish]

/confirm

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: Peregrine

Last to confirm, and a longer confirm stage profits scum.

[Fishythefish]

I think it's quite likely that scum confirm later on average.

Why the vote?

[Fishythefish]

1. See join date. Have been on and off ever since, I'd guess 50 odd games in total. Not so many recently.
2. If he was very lynchable indeed, I might breadcrumb heavily and try to lynch him. But almost all the time I'd just claim.

Zang - here they almost certainly could (mod's "opening the day" post told them to stop, and it's also in the scum example PM).

[Fishythefish]

@Sath: as explained above, since scum have daytalk during the confirmation stage it is to their advantage to have a longer confirmation stage. I imagine that occasionally this leads scum to confirm later than they otherwise would.

However, I think there's something better to vote on now:

UNVOTE:
VOTE: Twistedspoon
His vote for Parama gives an actual reason (buddying), which he then immediately undermines by saying he's voting because Parama asked for a vote. Smacks of not wanting to actually be involved in conflict. His comment to Haylen seems to do nothing but draw out the RVS further by trying to downplay the importance of what little content there is at this stage of the game.

[Fishythefish]

* You may communicate privately via QuickTopic with your fellow Mafia up until the game thread is opened (this is called Night 0). Once the game begins, all outside communication must cease until the night cycle.

DAY ONE BEGINS!

For anyone talking out of class: stop now!

[Fishythefish]

Ninja'd.

@Spoon: what I mean is that the first of your reasons seems semi-serious, and the second thrown in to make it clear your vote is totally random. And serious votes early in the game develop conflict.

@BBmolla: why do you think seriousness during the RVS is a scumtell?

[Fishythefish]

Haven't played since multiquote turned up. It is officially awesome.

@Fishy: Town are much more relaxed as the worst that can happen to them is getting lynched, and even so, their team still has a good chance at winning.
Scum are more on edge, them getting lynched hurts their team severly considering they are(in this setup I think) 33% of their team. That's the equivalent to 3 townmembers dying in one night.

The above knowledge applies to RVS mostly.

This seems totally wrong to me. Scum

might

be more scared of getting lynched, though I kind of doubt it - getting lynched day 1 is the worst possible thing to happen as either alignment. But even if they

are

, that would lead to them wanting to blend in. Getting serious early has two likely effects - getting things going and drawing attention to yourself (for examples of both, see this game).

I believe that I understood the question, and I definitely support its discourse.

You should not be so quick to make assumptions though. Not all of your town peers will feel too comfortable even in random voting stage. While it is ideal that all town should be willing to play optimally and be unconcerned with their lynch if it promotes the town win condition, that is not always the case. Some players will be anxious about "fitting in" with their fellow town regardless of whether they are scum or not. Now, I don't think this is a poor angle to pursue in ferreting out players with exceptional win cons, but please keep in mind that this is a diverse setting.

This seems to be saying "your scumtell isn't good, but carry on scumhunting based on it". I just don't see what this was supposed to achieve other than a post that looks like content.

Seems like I missed the RVS while at work

@Fishy that is a very weak reason to believe scum have day talk also (and I do realize the irony as I am committing the same crime right now) I don't like that you skipped RVS and immediatly jumped into a serious vote and then started either guessing about something only scum would know for sure and sticking by it so passionately this early on.

For that

Vote Fishy

My reasons for thinking scum have day talk

during the confirm stage

- it's in their example role PM and the mod told them to stop talking. Seems pretty sound. But why on earth do you want a RVS? It's the worst part of the game for scumhunting, and getting us out is protown.

That is fine however his was the first post of the game his read came from who confirmed last. I will gladly remove my vote if he can provide meta that he does that normally but from the two previous games of his I checked his first vote was not for who confirmed last.

I'm not doing your metawork for you, but you will find I have a townmeta (and maybe also a scummeta? not at all sure) of making serious votes early on, based on whatever is in the game. Sure, late confirming is at the weak end of that range, but when yours is the first post it's hard to vote seriously.

Of the votes for me, this is my least favourite. It parrots what someone else said about my reasons for thinking that scum could talk, but after I'd answered the question. It also parrots the line that skipping the RVS stage is bad, without further explanation. Bad points are bad, but repeating bad points is worse. Also the "it's only ok if you've got a meta of doing it" is pretty horrible - it's shifts the burden of proof. Instead of him having to actually explain why my serious vote was scummy, I now have to show that I've done the precise same thing before as town.

Yep, disliking BB's later moves. His vote on me sure seemed serious, when he gave an explanation of why scum act serious early on. To unvote when I had a big wagon is reasonable - quicklynchs are bad - but when pressed by Parama he defended with this instead:

It wasn't that serious of a vote. It was to put some pressure on Fishy, which clearly is already being done by four others.

Spoon's explanation seems OK. I can see how that post can be read as "here's a reason for voting Parama, and here's a cute observation that he asked to be voted for", and with that interpretation I'm more comfortable with it.

Zang is town because in 31 he showed a complex misunderstanding of the scum role PM. Easy to fake as scum, but noone ever has ever in the whole history of everything. Parama seems like town for 58 (but "he's defending me" bias probably plays a role here.

UNVOTE: VOTE: Lurconis

[Fishythefish]

Zang is very much defending spoon and BB. Don't really know what to make of it. This part of that is just plain wrong:

What you did is called "relieving pressure." When votes start leaving the wagon, others are less likely to join it and those already on it are more likely to leave. If you believe someone is scum and unvote them before L-1 (and only then because you want to prevent a quicklynch) you will quickly be toppling their wagon and destroying your credibility

He never said that he thought he was scum.

The following clearly show BB thought I was scum:

VOTE: Fishy

Something about this guy seems fishy(hur hur), mostly his degree of seriousness during RVS, which to me is always a bad sign.

@Fishy: Town are much more relaxed as the worst that can happen to them is getting lynched, and even so, their team still has a good chance at winning.
Scum are more on edge, them getting lynched hurts their team severly considering they are(in this setup I think) 33% of their team. That's the equivalent to 3 townmembers dying in one night.

The above knowledge applies to RVS mostly.

[Fishythefish]

Because he later said his vote "wasn't that serious".

I read the first quote as saying that I'm scummy (what else does "fishy" mean here?), and that that's because I was serious during the RVS. Then I specifically asked why that was a scumtell, and BB replied with an explanation as to why being serious during the RVS is a scumtell. To me, that makes it totally clear that BB thought I was scummy - and makes his backtrack on that scummy.

[Fishythefish]

@Zang: If you call someone fishy, and say that something they did is a bad sign, you are clearly calling them scummy. Particularly if you then say exactly why you think that bad sign is a scumtell! I really don't see how you can read the two quotes in 85 and say that BB wasn't saying I was scummy.

@Sathoris: that's true, but it doesn't change much. BB still made a serious vote, and then backtracked on it later. And now Zang seems to be saying that BB didn't even say I was scummy.

[Fishythefish]

I used the word scumtell because I thought that was the obvious interpretation. If I was wrong about my interpretation, he would have corrected me. Instead, he explained why it was a scumtell - which makes it totally and completely clear that's that what he meant originally.

My interpretation of his original post and his response to my question is that he thinks being serious in the RVS is scummy, and that I did that, and so that I'm scummy. What is your interpretation?

[Fishythefish]

@Fishy- I'm confused by your response to Lurconis in your Post 78 because it leads to you voting him, but by this time he has already had a conversation with with Kayne and admits to misunderstanding and in the end actually agreeing with you. Was his misunderstanding faked? I'm not getting it.

Hmmm - I have to say I wasn't really thinking about that conversation when I wrote 78. Looking at it now, I think what I'd say is Lurc clearly hadn't properly read the thread, and particularly what I'd said, when he posted 46. If he had, no way could he think we didn't know about N0. Gives me the read that Lurc was more eager to wagon than to think. Which on page 2 probably isn't a very good scumtell.

UNVOTE:

[Fishythefish]

Fishy: I made a fish pun during my vote. It wasn't a "this guy is scum and must be lynched at all costs" vote. I had no reason to make that. Stop painting me as scum, and if you think I'm scum, vote me.

I never thought it was - but it

was

a "this guy is scummy and could do with some votes" vote. I do think you're the most likely scumbag around atm, but my opinions are still changing rapidly, and I'm certainly not ready for either a claim or a lynch, so I'm not going to put you at L-1 yet. If you had only a couple of votes I would be voting for you.

Parama I am town and this is a mislynch. There is literally nothing I could possibly do that you won't construe in some sort of scum fashion, and that is you painting me as scum. I forget the term, but it's you being so convinced I'm scum in your mind that you create things that aren't there to reinforce your view.

The term you are looking for is probably "confirmation bias".

Lots of your reply to Parama seems to be "you said this is scummy, but I'm not scum, so you're misrepping me". Parama may indeed be misrepping you, but if so this isn't the way to demonstrate it.

There seems to be a disconnect in your recent posts, where you think Parama is both
a) so convinced you are scum he won't listen to anything you say.
b) scum who knows you are a mislynch.
Scum can't tunnel - they know the answer.

[Fishythefish]

What is scum focusing on mislynching one player called if its not tunneling?Well whatever it is, replace tunneling with that, because that's what I meant. I didn't know tunneling implied town.

This doesn't address the problem, though. You said that Parama is so sure that you are scum that anything you say becomes a point against you in his eyes. That's something scum can fake, perhaps, but it's not something they can actually do. What you were accusing Parama of was exactly tunnelling, in a town way, so calling him scum without addressing that seems off to me.

[Fishythefish]

I still think BBmolla or fishy is a safe lynch. Lurc is edging closer depending on his answer to one of my earlier posts.

What makes me a good (or "safe") lynch?

More tonight.

[Fishythefish]

What is scum focusing on mislynching one player called if its not tunneling?Well whatever it is, replace tunneling with that, because that's what I meant. I didn't know tunneling implied town.

This doesn't address the problem, though. You said that Parama is so sure that you are scum that anything you say becomes a point against you in his eyes. That's something scum can fake, perhaps, but it's not something they can actually do. What you were accusing Parama of was exactly tunnelling, in a town way, so calling him scum without addressing that seems off to me.

It's called Doublethink.

"The power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one's mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them....

To tell deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them

, to forget any fact that has become inconvenient, and then, when it becomes necessary again, to draw it back from oblivion for just as long as it is needed."

He knows he's scum, but he's most likely playing the mindset of "If I were town, who would seem scummy and how could I get everyone to think the same way?" as opposed to "I'm scum, I'm going to push on this guy." Town players play more to "I'm town, who is scummy and why? How have their recent posts changed or not changed my outlook on them?"

Unless it's part of their meta, most town players don't go out of their way to

make

a player look like scum. Those who do pick a target early in the day and construe everything they say in a way that seems scummy. I hate town players who do this, because it's anti town and counter productive.

Does the above sound like Parama's meta to anyone? I've never played with him so I wouldn't know. It's the only plausible explanation I can find.

This really doesn't convince me. Your explanation for Parama's behaviour is that he is scum who is telling deliberate lies while genuinely believing in them. AFAIC, that's a massively overcomplicated explanation, and it doesn't explain anything better than Parama just genuinely believing what he says. Seems to me that you called Parama tunnelled in a way only town get (ie. being so sure you are scum that everything he sees confirms it for him), and you called him scum - and when people pointed out the contradiction, you had to reconcile the two in this rather unlikely way.

Basically, there is no way that "doublethinking scum" is a plausible read for anyone to have on anyone else, particularly so early on. Enough so that I'm ready to hammer. Please claim.

[Fishythefish]

Well, BB clearly

is

a name cop - it's a totally confirmable role. But there's no reason to think he's a

town

name cop - it's a role that could certainly be useful for either team. I'm happy to lynch him.

[Fishythefish]

unvote

@Fishy - A name cop may be helpful to scum but that is such an easy role to confirm why would we continue to lynch him when we can use him and if as chair says he doesn't help we would know he is scum and would be a safe future lynch as opposed to a mislynch of a PR.
Seems a scum move to want to continue on a lynch of a confirmable PR.
VOTE: FishytheFish

my top two scum suspects were fishy and BB , seeing fishy's last post i guess only one of them might be scum . im not entirely convinced that BB's a town cop but since its easily confirmable im going to move on to the other scum .

UNVOTE

kanye has it right. The fact that BB is confirmable makes no difference because he's

not

confirmable as town. Tomorrow, we'll know (barring roleblocking etc.) that BB is a namecop. But we still won't know his alignment. Will you lynch him then? If BB is scum - and as far as I see the evidence there has not changed one jot - he'll have bought his life with one crappy rolename.

Your

best case

scenario for tomorrow is BB investigating someone, and telling us a rolename, and they confirm it. What is your plan for that scenario?

Basically, everyone who just unvoted BBmolla because of his claim needs to explain exactly why they were prepared to lynch him before, but no longer think that he has an exceptional win condition. "Because he is a name cop" is not an acceptable answer on this pop quiz, unless you can also explain how this is useful in any way to town.

This.

---

@RP: why am I one of your two top scum suspects? Can't find anything in your posting that suggests I'm scummy.
@Sath: same question to you still stands from here.

[Fishythefish]

Oh, even if BBMolla is scum he will be forced to help us. Isn't that a good reason enough to keep him alive?

If BB is scum, how will he help us? Tomorrow, we'll know a name (if he doesn't want to claim roleblocked or investigating the dead). And so what? That probably won't help us significantly. Certainly not compared to lynching scum.

[Fishythefish]

Name cop seems useless as a mafiarole. He could of course be faking the true nature of his ability, he could be a name + role cop. But seeing as a name cop can verify townies and not help the mafia in any way I trust his claim. If it's a fake one, then well done and I'll congratulate you after the game.

We don't know that scum have scummy names, or that townies don't have scummy names. It's easily possible that a name cop could help scum - if PRs have PR-ish names. From what we know of the game, name cop could be helpful for scum, town, both or neither. Why do you think a name cop would help town identify scum? Why don't you think it would help scum identify PRs? These both seem massive leaps to me. Unless, I suppose, you are scum with a scummy rolename.

I still think BBmolla or fishy is a safe lynch. Lurc is edging closer depending on his answer to one of my earlier posts.

What makes me a good (or "safe") lynch?

More safe than good. In an earlier quote [url=http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 0#p3392420]here[/url,] you referenced that the opening post of the mod told scum to stop daytalking. When in fact 'stop talking out of class' meant that people should start to abide by their role 'restriction'. I can't distinguish any such restriction in you and the fact that you didn't get that modquote makes me think you're mafia without a PM instructing you to talk in a way.

What is the difference between safe and good?

Why do you think 'stop talking out of class' meant that? For me, the natural interpretation was 'stop talking elsewhere'. When I wrote about it I hadn't thought of the interpretation you put on it, but looking at it now it still seems much less likely. Regardless, my guess would be that scum also have something in their PM instructing them to talk in a way - I can't see why that would be a town only thing. Also, it seems a massive stretch to say 'you don't look like you are obeying any of the millions of possible post restrictions on your style'. Altogether this seems like an extremely weak reason to call me scum.

@RedPanda: you say you agree with me/kanye about BB's roleclaim (at least to some extent). Are you going to vote for him again then?

[Fishythefish]

I didn't say a namecop helped town identify scum. I said it helped town verify townies. (i.e. BBMolla calls you 'the entertainer' and you verify by saying that's indeed your name) Of course a certain amount of trust must always be present, but the mafia won't learn anything helpful. I can only guess at this stage, but if the role is truly alive and well then scum must have somewhat scummy sounding names or else the ability is useless.

To be clear: do you think that BB's claim makes him more likely town than before? If so, why don't you think name cop is a likely scum role?

My position is that namecop can be scum as easily as it can be town, so it doesn't affect my read on BB. Knowing some names probably wouldn't help us significantly, so I see no reason to leave him alive to get reports. It's just not worth the reduced chance of lynching scum. He was the right lynch before he claimed, and he's still the right lynch now.

Read 190 again. It's totally clear that I knew what you were talking about on the subject of post restrictions, and just thought your interpretation of "stop talking out of class" was weird/wrong.

[Fishythefish]

194 is pretty null for me. For scumBB, winning an extra day is a big win, and he can always argue again tomorrow. 194 is a natural "look at me I'm being protown about my own death" post for scum.

[Fishythefish]

Living an extra day benefits you massively if the town mislynches today - because your partners have one less day to survive.

To choose between your options - if we are going to lynch you at some point (and it's probably clear that I think we should), we'd do much better to lynch you today. Then we know where we stand sooner, and have more to go on. Knowing the name of one player is unlikely to do much. A namecop certainly isn't a powerful enough role to make me want to lynch on anything except how likely people are to be scum.

[Fishythefish]

Why do you think I'm mafia getting anxious about being on the chopping block? Where have I said I want a quicklynch?
Did you read the other bit of my 195? Do you have any response? I think it makes it fairly clear that your other point against me is crap.

I guess we disagree on name cop. I think it's a plausible scum role as much as it is a plausible town role - in the town case it's like a massively nerfed cop, in the scum case it's like a massively nerfed rolecop.

[Fishythefish]

VOTE: BB

[Fishythefish]

for BBMolla, consider this perspective-
1. Your town you check someone tonight tell us results tomorrow we
lynch you see your town and now have a confirmed townie or confirmed
scum based off your read.
2. Your town your NK’d tonight which confirms you town we have your
reads of today to go off of.
3. Your scum you give us a false read tomorrow we lynch you and your
results are now WIFOM.
4. Your scum or town you read whoever is NK’d so your results are null
at that point.
All 4 situations are better than lynching him today which would give
us no new info. I don’t think he should reveal who he is going to
check as if the target is town that allows scum to nk them and get a
free mislynch with BBMolla tomorrow.
-Copied from a word document, emailed to my phone and posted from
there so please forgive formatting errors as my work blocks the site
so I have to figure out workarounds.

No, no, no, no, no, no, no. If BB is scum, lynching him means there are fewer scum for us to deal with. Lynching someone who isn't BB probably won't give us fewer scum to deal with. If BB is scum, lynching him is emphatically the right move - leaving him alive so he can give us a report that won't help us is madness. BB's claim only matters in so far as it tells us anything about his alignment.

If you think that namecop is a highly unlikely scum role (which to me is a bizarre thing to think), then it's fair enough to want to let BB live. But letting him live to get a report is a complete red herring - it's just deferring his lynch to get find out some probably uninteresting information.

Also, at the guy who said that me not being lynched today would cause a ML instead or whatever, there's still a possibility we could actually, oh I don't know, lynch the scum?

Not sure if this was me. But if it was, what I mean is that if we think you are the most likely scum, you not being lynched today is more likely to cause a mislynch. That is, just the same reason you always lynch the scummiest player.

Speaking of you and scumminess, before all this claiming nonsense kicked off I said I was prepared to vote for you here, because I thought what you said about doublethink was very implausible. Do you have any response to that?

[Fishythefish]

1.      Camn gave us profession names.
2.      There is no information on if these names indicate scum or towniness.
3.      Someone claims to be a namecop.
4.      If there is a role of a namecop that would indicate information can
be found by profession names.
5.      Scum may benefit from a namecop if it helps find town power roles.
6.      Town may benefit from a namecop if it helps find scum.
7.      If claimed namecop is scum allowing him one read could be very bad
for town if he discovers a powerful power roll town needs.
8.      If claimed namecop is town allowing him one read could be very bad
for scum as he could discover scum.
9.      You only need to look at which is worse for town overall.
I agree he should be lynched for info but the amount of info gleamed
would be much more by lynching him tomorrow that it would today thus
would be more beneficial for town.

If you disagree please explain why rather than say disagree
-work to email to phone to site more when at home

1-8. Yes, except a minor objection to 4. It makes it more likely that a namecop is helpful - not certain.
9. No, no, no, no, no. You also need to look at

whether he is scum

. If he is scum, it's

much

worse to lynch him tomorrow than today. Assuming BB is the scummiest player, we have to decide whether the tradeoff of extra info is worth lynching someone we think is less likely to be scum. For me, the extra info here really isn't that important - it's not exactly a massively powerful role - and so I think we should lynch him.

[Fishythefish]

So... I did a reread. And it turns out I was wrong. About pretty much everything. Sorry about that.

TL;DR:

Read the section on RedPanda if you want to know who to vote for. Parama's case on BB is actually pretty weak. Sath-kanye is town vs. town. Scum are currently lurking their way through an interesting period of the game. If you're the mod, prod Haylen.

Johhog

I don't much like his vote on BB. He says that BB voting me and then unvoting me is scummy, but I don't really see why he thinks that. He doesn't explain why he doesn't buy BB's explanation (ie. vote on me not that serious, unvoted because my wagon was near a lynch). I dislike his play after BB's claim. He moves on to Zang, saying that even if BB is scum he will be forced to help us. But doesn't bother responding to any of the arguments on either side of that issue, except to say that "Sath is coming out more town than kanye in their discussion". Which is unexplained, and rather convenient as Sath is the person he agrees with. I don't see anything he's said since BB's claim which explains why he thinks BB is town. And I don't think "scum would have to help us" is a plausible reason to want BB alive.

Parama

His original point on BB (unvoting me and then voting randomly) makes sence, but is not a massively exciting point. I can see BBtown thinking my wagon was too near a lynch for him to be comfortable with. I don't think taking off a pressure vote at that stage is a good move for town, but I don't think it's implausible either. The next round of his points on BB is... pretty meh actually. BB's response is basically "I wasn't ready for a fishy lynch, and I was scared of a lynch happening, so I unvoted". Parama never really addresses why he thinks this is unlikely, and the argument fast descends into "I so found the true and scummy motivation for your post" vs. "You're so misrepping my post". That takes us up to 115, where it gets a bit more interesting. Then Parama brings in a new argument - because BB is saying
a) Parama is so convinced BB is scum he makes up things that aren't there to reinforce his point of view.
b) Parama is scum.
That looked like a better point for me - saying Parama is convinced that BB is scum definitely implies he believes it. But actually, I rather overlooked something. It's worth quoting the BB post in question in full:

Parama I am town and this is a mislynch. There is literally nothing I could possibly do that you won't construe in some sort of scum fashion, and that is you painting me as scum.

I forget the term, but it's you being so convinced I'm scum in your mind that you create things that aren't there to reinforce your view.

Also, you literally just admitted you misrepped me to enforce my lynch. [sarcasm]Such a town move right there[/sarcasm].

If you look at the bolded, you get more or less what Parama is saying - it implies that Parama is convinced BB is scum, and hence town. But taken with the previous sentence, the meaning changes quite a lot - it now reads more like BB is saying that Parama is deliberately looking for the bad things in BB's posts to fit an image of BBscum. The bolded isn't a great expression of this, but Parama does rather take it out of context.

Hmmm. Parama's attacks are looking quite dirty to me, actually. He goes for BB's responses in a way that doesn't seem to be evaluating them honestly.

His reaction to the claim is fine.

Haylen

@mod:

please prod Haylen.

BBmolla

The post on Doublethink is the one that's really off for me. I don't see how BB reads Parama as "scum who manages to believes BB is scum while knowing it's false" rather than "town who believes BB is scum". The only decent interpretation I can put on it is a really convoluted way of saying "Parama is scum trying to get me lynched, and so he attacks anything I do as scummy". But that just isn't what it says.
What else? Well, I felt he downplayed the seriousness of his vote on me after he unvoted. He hasn't done much except defend himself, but in a game which is all about your wagon that's fair enough. His post claim play seems... pretty solidly protown. It's not so hard for scum to do a "look at me I'm all protown about getting lynched" act, but this is still a pretty convincing example of it for me. Generally, BB's play isn't nearly as bad as I thought it was.

Chair

Chair doesn't do much. Votes BB, declares they're sheeping. Misder's reaction to the claim isn't one I like - like Johhog, it falls into the category of "you don't have any more reason than before to think BB is town". Saying his role is useful is

such

an incomplete answer to "should we lynch him". And he really doesn't participate in the conversation about this. implosion's last post also says nothing about the claim - in fact he hasn't said anything about BB at all, which is odd considering BB's the focus of this game thus far. What is in his last post is a few disconnected but reasonable things to say. I want to know who each of them thinks is scum and why.

kanyeknowsbest

He's been shouting the right answer since the claim, but that's easy and fun (I should know, I've been doing it too). Probably also a bit townish - scum probably aren't gunning for a name cop's lynch whatever alignment he is. More generally, he's thought much the same thoughts as me about the game. Guessing he's town.

@kanye: why is Sath scum?

PeregrineV

I like his recent catchup post, but he hasn't done much else. His unvote for BB is because BB is "potentially valuable", but he admits himself he doesn't really see the value.

RedPanda

This is one scummy Panda. Jumps on a large wagon with the

incredibly

vague statement that BB is scum cracking under pressure. He gives some insight into why here:

Just cause you unvoted to prevent a ML doesnt mean your not scum. it could be that you targeted your scumbuddy at the start to make it look like you guys arent buddies and then unvoted when you thought he might be in danger. also when the votes started coming to you, you use a bet on paramas mother's life which i think is really scummy. what did you expect him to reply? hes obviously not going to bet on it. And my Really Broad statement was to be applied to what i quoted. its a pity why you cant understand why that statement seems that way.

So the first two sentences are a misunderstanding of someone else's point against BB. The way Panda mangles it, he winds up saying that unvoting me isn't townish because it might have been a bus originally. Which... is true, I suppose. But it doesn't remotely say why unvoting me is scummy. And the

actual

point Parama had made was that unvoting me was scummy because BB got cold feet about a mislynch. This incompetent parroting is mega scummy. Then he says that betting Parama's mother is really scummy - but why? It's clear that BB means "are you very sure I'm scum?". And why's that a scummy question? Panda doesn't share that with us. It's

just

the kind of thing I can see wagonning scum pick on - it feels somehow like it's an unfair and scummy question for BB to ask, but when you think about it it actually isn't.

After BB's claim, he unvotes because BB is confirmable, and says that BB and I were his top suspects. He then agrees with me that actually it makes no sense to unvote someone because their role is confirmable. And backtracks massively, saying:

actually fishy the only reason i thought you were scum was cause of BB's interactions with you from the start. its more of a gut feeling that one of you are scum. i was actually more inclined to BB as scum and you as town. and you do provide valid points against BB, my inexperience didnt let me think about that.

This seems to say that he had a feeling that one of BB and I was scum. And that's it's BB. Which is pretty much in direct conflict with his previous post. Reads like, seeing my explanation, he realises that he's safe on the BB wagon, and drops his suspicion on me as unnecessary. He's also now twice explained his vote on BB by saying he voted to pressure him - and still not adequately explained his actual vote.

Panda looks to me like a shameless bandwagonner. It doesn't feel like he cares much about whether BB is scum. Scummy.

fishythefish

Has his name miscapitalised in the opening post. Extrememly townish.

Zang

Dropped an early towntell - I think his misunderstanding of the scum role PM is unlikely from scum. Since then... he's made decent points, but not really committed to anything. Makes him pretty hard to read.

Lurconis

Of all the wrong people about BB's claim Lurc comes off pretty well. Even if I think his arguments make no sense, it reads like he is trying to persuade people of something he believes. His votes have been pretty meh. Don't really know who he thinks is scum.

twistedspoon

Don't really like his response to BB's wagon. Very fence sitting:

in post 76: the point on panda is well made. If BB flips town then panda needs a serious looking at for a very opportunistic and badly explained vote. However the newbie mindet is to sheep the biggest wagons, so this must also be considered.in this post BB asks me my opinions on his wagon. I'd say some of the votes are shaky. Parma makes the best case, but chair and panda's votes are blatant sheeping. Not scumtells in themselves, especially since chair was asked to sheep, but they should be considered if you flip townKanye's vote on you was sound i thought. you don't have to be completely sure a player is scum in RVS to vote them and unvoting or not voting in RVS is usually scum playing it safe imho.In conclusion I think your wagon will certainly have scum on it if you flip town. Most likely not parama or kanye though.

Feels like he thinks the BB wagon is shaky, and identifies particular people on it with weak votes, but doesn't really care. He does follow up a bit on Panda, which helps this quite a lot.

Sathoris

Seems like town. In his arguments with me and kanye about me post restriction (or potential lack thereof) and about BB's claim, I think he believes what he says. Particularly in the former - he seemed very like who think they've got a good catch. Which is especially noteworthy because if (as is likely) scum do have post restrictions, it's not a catch scum would think of.

Revision to BB

Wow! All the other people I think are scummy attacked BB. He gets some townpoints for that.

So, with lists roughly reflecting order in scummy-townie:

Very Scummy

Panda
Johhog

Quite Scummy

Chair
Parama

Neutral

BB
twistedsoon
Haylen
Lurconis
Peregrine

Quite Townish

Zang

Town

Sathoris
kanye

Clearly, this calls for a change in vote. I think a
UNVOTE:
VOTE: RedPanda
is in order.

[Fishythefish]

Because it's a bit buried in the above:

@mod: Please prod Haylen

I saw it the first time.. and it has been done.

[Fishythefish]

Triple post FTW!

I will be V/LA this weekend, from late tomorrow until Sunday night.

please use the new VLA tag in your profile... it's shiny!

[Fishythefish]

@Panda:

So, to summarise:

- In 119, you said that BB and I might be scum together. To be precise, you said that the reason for BB hopping off my wagon might be that we are scum together. I ignored this because it was totally unjustified - all it's saying is that player A unvoting player B makes them scum together. Which is not a good tell.
- You say you also had other reasons for thinking we were scum together - that we were sneaky and tried to distance ourselves. How, exactly?
- You say you lied about your suspicions on me to avoid the NK. Why did you feel it was worth lying about who you think is scum and why to live another day? This seems thoroughly implausible to me. Why wasn't your priority to lynch the people you thought were scum?
- You say that me unvoting BB and going for you proves I'm scum with BB. That is only remotely true if you already have the BB-fishy narrative in your head; in general, changing your mind about someone is just not a good associative scumtell.
- You say that you have been thinking about a me/BB team for a while, and from the posts you quote that's true. But your reasons for it look pretty weak.

@Zang: much as before; he's a namecop, I don't know which alignment. But now he's not the scummiest player in my eyes, so I don't want to lynch him.

[Fishythefish]

Wait, what does this sentence mean:

the only reason i made the post about you no longer seeming scum to me was just to make sure i dont get nked in case i was wrong(i believed you might be town at that point but i didnt want to take a chance).

Do you mean that you were afraid I would NK you after we lynched BB, or something else?

@Panda: it would be great if you could try to respond as soon as you can - I'm going on V/LA in maybe 20 hours and it would help a lot if I could hear the answers to my questions in the last post before then.

[Fishythefish]

Huzzah!

[Fishythefish]

Johhog

1. I don't much like his vote on BB. He says that BB voting me and then unvoting me is scummy, but I don't really see why he thinks that.

2. He doesn't explain why he doesn't buy BB's explanation (ie. vote on me not that serious, unvoted because my wagon was near a lynch).

3. I dislike his play after BB's claim. He moves on to Zang, saying that even if BB is scum he will be forced to help us. But doesn't bother responding to any of the arguments on either side of that issue, except to say that "Sath is coming out more town than kanye in their discussion".

4. Which is unexplained, and rather convenient as Sath is the person he agrees with. I don't see anything he's said since BB's claim which explains why he thinks BB is town.

5. And I don't think "scum would have to help us" is a plausible reason to want BB alive.

1. Because his subsequent vote is a random vote. He had a serious vote which he replaced with a random one.

2. Because his explanation is terribad. "Not that serious". Fair, but it was at least a bit serious, and he did de facto replace it with an entirely random vote. Also, your wagon was near lynch? Since when? I don't think anyone was ready to lynch you at that point.

3. What arguments? And do you really not believe that BB will help us if he's scum? Also, do you have any problem with me moving on to Zang?

4. Of course it's unexplained, what did you expect? One can not use anything else than gut in that situation.

5. Your problem, not mine.

1-2. From BB's posts, he is clearly saying he voted me with a slight suspicion, and unvoted because the wagon was at L-2 and he didn't suspect me enough to justify wanting me dead then. Near a lynch, at least in terms of numbers. What's wrong with that explanation?
3. By arguments, I mean all the discussion of
a) whether BB's claim makes him more likely town
b) if not, whether it's worth leaving him alive anyway.
If BB is scum, he'll tell us a rolename, sure. But the odds of that actually helping catch scum are very, very slim. And no, moving on to Zang was only important in that you moved off BB.
4. I would expect you to say why you agreed with whoever you agree with. Saying "the guy who believes what I believe is looking townier" is a rather underhand way of supporting your statements.
5. So explain to me why you think that if BB is scum he's going to make a decent protown impact on the game. What will we know tomorrow that we wouldn't know if we lynched him today, other than some random person's rolename?

[Fishythefish]

Fishy Your whole reason for voting me was Because you think im a bandwagoner and ive proved that im not and youve actually quoted exactly the texts where i call you scum twice.

QFT. Your play makes a lot more sense through the lens of tunnelling on me and BB as a scumpair. Your explanation of why you held back on calling me scum makes me more comfortable... though why did you say

the only reason i made the post about you no longer seeming scum to me

was just to make sure i dont get nked in case i was wrong

(i believed you might be town at that point but i didnt want to take a chance).

I still don't see how the nk is involved.

So yeah, you're probtown - I don't see tunnelling on a scumpair as a likely scum move.

To address some of your actual points (ignoring some of the ones that are purely BB):

85/87: here I'm saying that BB's vote had some seriousness in it. Which... it did.
97 (though by BB): if you say "I didn't catch anything there but I still feel a connection", you should start strongly considering the possibility that you are looking far too hard for connections that don't exist. That sentence shows you are exhibiting a particularly extreme form of tunnelling.
What do you mean by "driving a wedge"? I don't see what you're getting at beyond "calling each other scum a bit".
120: I bring up a new point against BB. Sure, if you have an arbitrary BB-fishy assumption you can say that is distancing. But why on earth do you think it is?
128: what do you mean by there being "too many BB and fishy references", and why does it make us scum together? It may be relevant that at this point in the game, all the action had involved at least one and sometimes both of us.
136: er... so what you're saying here is that people are finding BB scummy. And that I was finding BB scummy. And so... what? Again, if you have already decided that BB and I are scum together, you can say whatever you like - hanging back from his wagon would make me look bad, say. But without that decision, all you have is me agreeing with the BB wagon. That's all.
148: yes, we do. I'm an active player, BB was someone I suspected and wanted answers from. So we exchanged a lot of posts. And?
156: I forgot about it.

So. To summarise, when I suspect BB it's distancing. When I vote BB, it's bussing. When I unvote BB, it's to save his skin. When BB votes me, it's bussing. When I comment on anything BB has said, or vice versa, it's because we're scum together.

Sure, if we were scum together all that would be true - but none of it is the only explanation, and you really haven't explained why you think it likely. Once you decided we were scum together, you saw connections everywhere - because it's clear your thought process went:
- Fishy (or BB) has made a post about BB (or Fishy).
- Now, we already know they're scum together. Why did Fishy make that post?
- Oh yeah, for reason X.
- Fishy made that post for reason X! They really

must

be scum together.
Go back over your points, and try hard to think "if I didn't already think that BB and Fishy are scum together, would this make me think they are?". Because if the answer to that is "no", it's not evidence that we are scum together.

Anyway,
UNVOTE:
because Panda's response to my case is stunningly good, at least in convincing me he's town.

[Fishythefish]

sorgster = BB?

I'm not going to be voting BB unless things happen - after my reread I'm not at all sure he's scum, and changing my mind about you doesn't change that all that much. Chair and Johhog are my top candidates.

On when I voted BB - for a while I thought Lurconis was scummier. When that changed, BB was at L-2. I wasn't ready for a claim or a lynch until I'd heard more from BB, so I didn't put him at L-1. I then asked him to claim at L-1, and from there I voted him as soon as I realised his wagon was small enough that I wasn't risking a quicklynch. This took a little while, probably because I'm lazy and the mod didn't post a votecount for a while.

My unvote is explained in my reread post - I found a lot of the points on him really weak, in a way I hadn't noticed first time round. Add that to all my scum suspects voting for him, and he looks a bit better.

VOTE: Chair

I don't like the way they aren't posting reads, I don't like their response to BB's claim, and I really don't like the way they have said very little about BB - in a game based around BB. All looks like scum trying to avoid attention.

[Fishythefish]

Sorry - the "they" in my last paragraph refers only to chair. I can't make up my mind whether a hydra is single or plural.

[Fishythefish]

Someone answered. Anyway, it's short for "Too Long; Didn't Read". You say it when you do a summary of a post for people too lazy to read the whole thing.

[Fishythefish]

Back from V/LA. Also drunk. Reading, will only do anything else tonight if the answer is obvious.

[Fishythefish]

I am on the Myers-Briggs chart. I agree that we shouldn't fullclaim. I absolutely don't want scum to know who the Inspector is.

My instinct is that we should lynch BB, but I'm not certain enough to vote. A more considered opinion will be with you within 24 hours.

[Fishythefish]

*fullclaim -> name-claim

[Fishythefish]

Two of the same roles with different names? That's something I'm willing to bet against.

A fakeclaim from Parama? I doubt it - the odds of him being lynched tomorrow are too high if BB flips town.

Is there a decent explanation with BB as scum? Well, the mod could have called the cops different names, though that is kind of messy. Or BB's claim isn't exactly true - he actually finds out more than the name (name and role?).

One more explanation - BB misunderstands his role and actually gets rolenames, not temperament names. But with a town flavour cop, this would still make him likely scum.

Anyway, it's pretty clear that BB is the lynch. Parama's probably not lying, and the town probably doesn't have two very similar roles. BB wouldn't be a bad lynch even if there was no counterclaim.

In a few hours I'll see if anything else has happened that's worth commenting on, and then I'll vote BB.

[Fishythefish]

Nope, aside from the claim nothing much interesting has happened while I was away.

UNVOTE: VOTE: BB

There are 24 hours to go, and if we don't get a majority there is no lynch. Lynches are much better than no lynches. There is no excuse not to have your vote on a wagon that might end up in a lynch. Here, that means BB, twisted or possibly Chair. Preferably BB.

[Fishythefish]

On one level, I actually quite want BB to flip town. It would make tomorrow entertaining.

[Fishythefish]

I think twisted's logic is fine. Saying he's town is a just a way of saying "FMPOV, he's a better lynch than me", which is a perfectly fine reason to hammer.

[Fishythefish]

I've been on V/LA. I'm not any more. Hooray! Not much time, but this is what jumps out at me from today:

Twisted why are you voting me BTW? At the end of yesterday you said you could see two cops... yet now you're voting me so...

i thought i could but then the flip woke me up and i realised 2 cops was bizzare again

What? So before BB flipped what he claimed, you thought BB and Parama were town. When he flipped, you realised that was unlikely. That makes no sense whatsoever. Your sudden certainty that Parama is scum is really off, when yesterday you thought both cops were town.

This particularly clashes with my feelings on the matter - I thought that
a) 2 cops was unlikely.
b) Parama counterclaiming as scum was unlikely.
Now that BB has flipped town, I'm pretty torn about how I feel, but coming down on the side of "Parama just wouldn't counterclaim as scum there". I find it incredibly unlikely that the flip would make anyone consider 2 cops

less

likely.

To desperately justify "2 cops is impossible" you also seem to be equating namecops to cops. In a game where namecops are practically confirmed to be rather useless. Your play today doesn't convince me at all.

I'll read over Chair's case and look at spoon on day 1 tomorrow. Right now his wagon looks justified to me.

[Fishythefish]

So many power roles.

I haven't received an invention. Does your role PM imply I would know about it by now? I can imagine a mechanic where an inventee would only hear about the invention the following night.

Of course, it's possible that you invented me something I don't get to know about.

[Fishythefish]

So, for me the main point against spoon is his flip-flopping on the matter of 2 name cops. When the initial claim came, he wouldn't believe there were two name cops. Under pressure, he reversed this. Today, he totally reversed that again - with no more evidence that there couldn't be two flavour cops.

@spoon: what made you change your mind about the possibility of two name cops today? What made you change it again today?

Sath's death also makes spoon more likely scum, because Sath suspected spoon.

The claim doesn't affect my read much. He's probably an inventor, probably invented me something (or tried to). But there's no reason at all he shouldn't be a scum inventor who invents bad things.

A spoon lynch looks ok.

Johhog's made two really meh votes today; first Haylen for not reading (what is the scum motivation?) and then Lurconis for his claim (the claim is clearly a massive towntell).

@Zang: I was thinking it's possible the invention is for the next night. But yeah, I think that would be non-standard (don't actually know the role).

[Fishythefish]

if I'm a scum inventor then why did i try to get you to claim your effect?

If I'd tried to give you a bad effect then I'd have been obv-scum

Well, you were claiming to avoid the lynch - you had a claim a PR, and you had a confirmable one. You even acknowledged that you might have given me a bad effect, and not be scum.

If you are town, you being RB'd is likely. NKs may be WIFOM, but scum overwhelmingly kill people who are threatening them. Unless there's a breadcrumb I've missed (@everyone: look for such a crumb, please), the only person Sath was threatening was you.

change my mind about name cops? It was only for a brief moment that i accepted the possiblity of there being 2 town ones, before the flip made me realise again how daft that seemed

parama is scum

That brief moment came when you were under pressure for not accepting the possibility, and your reversal comes when Parama looks wagonable (the only other posts of the day were Zang voting Parama and Parama saying he'd probably get lynched). There's no way that someone flipping town name cop can make you less willing to accept that there are two town name cops. It can only make it more likely. Both these changes of attitude seem opportunistic, and the second seems unlikely.

@Fishy- Please try a vote or something, to see if the vote count reflects any voting powers you may have received.

Agreed.

VOTE: Johhog

Because my experimental vote may as well be for scum.

[Fishythefish]

@spoon: problems in that claim analysis -

a) If you are (say) a Mafia Goon, it's not clear that claiming something confirmable and which doesn't get confirmed is a bad thing. Your claim

is

unprovable, and you

haven't

been lynched.
b) Bigger problems (for me) - you could be scum inventor who invents bad things. You even acknowledged the possibility that you invented bad things in you claim post - maybe as a preemptive defence for when I claimed that you'd invented me something bad. You could be a scum inventor who invents good things - particularly if you know the invention isn't that exciting, inventing a townie something good puts you in a very town-looking position at a time when you were vulnerable.

I don't see this claim as one that makes you obvtown at all.

[Fishythefish]

@kanye: when you say you buy this claim, do you mean just the role or the townness as well? I think the role is likely, but a scum inventor is very possible.

[Fishythefish]

How is Lurconis claim a "massive towntell"?

Because scum don't like to claim unless they have to, particularly interesting claims like this one. Anyone who stands up for no reason and says "yeah, so I'm a watcher" is town.

@RP: In the current mafiascum meta, no kill is "too obvious". Nightkill analysis is extremely limited, so scum generally just shoot who they want dead. If you read Sath, his clear biggest suspect was spoon, with five other people a long way behind. I think spoon had easily the most motivation to kill him. Why do you think kanye and lurc found him a threat?

As for the claims of Para and Lurc,

could

be scum thinking "they'll never think scum would do this". But in my experience, that not something that actually happens, particularly from Lurc - you just don't get scum claiming a power role early in the game for no reason. From Para it's perhaps more likely - he strikes me as a ballsy player, and he got a mislynch out of it - but it still seems a massive risk for scum who wasn't at all under pressure.

[Fishythefish]

But you say it yourself - that was at the start. Not who sath currently suspected (kanye was in the town category in [url=http://mafiascum.net/forum/viewtopic.ph ... 7#p3427867]Sath's most recent reads). Why do you think the beginning of the game is more important than what Sath actually thought in determining the NK?

Why does it matter that there are three people on both wagons? Missing your point here. The scum votes could be... more or less anywhere. A likely pair is any with at most one of spoon's wagon, say. spoon/Johhog/anyone, for example, is a perfectly sensible scumteam. As is spoon/Zang/anyone, spoon/Peregrine/anyone, and many others.

[Fishythefish]

So... you think scum look at who suspects them at the start of the game, and decide on who the threats are, and ignore what those people actually think at the end of the day? Why on earth would they do that?

Yep, I was happy to lynch BB mostly because I thought 2 cops was unlikely. But I think Parama's move really

is

very unlikely as scum, particularly when he had no particular reason to do it - BB's role is massively unscary for scum, and nobody really thought Parama was scum.

I'd take your bet. Sath's suspect was spoon. There's no reason to think that he would have moved on after BB flipped town - he already thought BB was town. Your reasons that kanye and lurc would have feared Sath really are extremely weak.

[Fishythefish]

UNVOTE:
VOTE: twistedspoon

The more I read his changes of stance on cops, the less I like them. I don't believe that anyone goes from this:

@Twisted: And how would the last thing town would say differ?

Also, keep in mind, we're flavor cops which debateably has the usefulness of a VT.

still, 2 flavour cops should not exist. One would counterclaim the other and cause 2 myslynches for town. This should not happen

to this:

tricked into playing a psycology themed game....

anyways, I'll play 2 cops. I may have been convinced

and then back to this:

Twisted why are you voting me BTW? At the end of yesterday you said you could see two cops... yet now you're voting me so...

i thought i could but then the flip woke me up and i realised 2 cops was bizzare again

I'd join a chair wagon were one to emerge though, unless there is a particular reason why 'champion' is town-aligned

With the evidence for the last one being that

one of the cops flipped cop

.

But that's not all! Look at this:

i thought one of them was scum
I still do

I was happy with a BB lynch so why not hammer/lynch him so we have conf.scum parama tommrow if he does flip town?

This is a lie. When spoon voted BB, he thought 2 cops was possible. He also

wasn't

happy with a BB lynch; it was a "well at least it's better than me" vote:

well it looks either me or BB going down today (the deadline is very close and NL is bad) and I know I'm confirmed town so;

VOTE: BB

And if you look back over spoon's day 1, he mostly thought BB was town. He didn't like the case on him, and when Parama CC'd he thought BB was the more genuine of the two. When he was convinced there could be two cops, there is no way he can have been happy with BB's lynch as town.

His claim doesn't make him town. He could be
a) A scum inventor who invents bad things.
b) A scum inventor who wanted to look good (particularly after being a popular target yesterday).
c) A scum inventor who didn't even invent anything for me, just wanting to connect us.
d) Lying through his teeth.

Let's lynch him.

[Fishythefish]

Yep, you could of course be a town inventor. Your claim isn't why I think you're scum.

If you weren't an inventor or didn't target me you'd be WIFOMing by saying that you wouldn't claim something unconfirmable. Also, if you didn't target me you'd have the bonus that I look bad after you are lynched, and if you invented something for a partner they don't get implicated.

If you invented bad things you could still bank on a confirmable claim being better than none at all.

But if I had to bet, I'd say the most likely would be doing it for towncred.

[Fishythefish]

All taken, I'm inclining towards scum inventor or liar. But, in case I'm over-applying the law of similar roles, what does everyone think?

On the "changed mind" thing I'm null, because I've changed my mind before, so I don't see that as a scum tell.

Actually, yeah, I think you're massively over-applying the law of similar roles.

On the "changed mind" thing - changing your mind is fine. But the second time spoon changed his mind, he did it for a very unconvincing reason that he can't actually believe. He then really changed his story on how he felt about BB at the time of the hammer, painting so that he was happy with a BB lynch, when at the time he can't have been from what he'd said everywhere else.

[Fishythefish]

And I don't agree

at all

on that Lurconis is town because he claimed early. We need more votes on this chap.

How many scum have you seen claiming power roles when under no pressure and not in massclaim, with no prospect of getting a mislynch out of it?
How many scum

who are also relatively new players

have you seen claiming power roles when under no pressure and not in massclaim, with no prospect of getting a mislynch out of it?
How many town

who are also relatively new players

have you seen claiming power roles when under no pressure and not in massclaim?
For me, the answers to these are 0, 0 and several. Lurc's claim is a crap move, but it is not a scum move.

[Fishythefish]

I corrected

you're

grammar and spelling and removed non-

existant

words.

Rank hypocrisy.

Don't really have much to say here. Still favour a TS lynch.

[Fishythefish]

Who the hell killed kanye? Oh, Haylen did. That could be the tiny bit of justification I need to unleash my lurker lynching urges.

Johhog's townreads are spot on. RP, Para and Lurc form my townlist. Lurc for his claim, RP for his day 1 awesome association tunnelling, Para for his part in the lynch and his claim. Time to read everyone else:

Haylen

Haylen's done very little. Called spoon's hammer scummy, and voted him. Unvoted when he claimed. Pretty neutral, though a good candidate for killing kanye.

Johhog

[quote="BBmolla"

His vote for Parama gives an actual reason (buddying), which he then immediately undermines by saying he's voting because Parama asked for a vote.

it's not undermining, it's an addition (hence why I said in retrospect)

conflict doesn't matter anyways; It's RVS. Who develops conflict over an RVS vote?

I agree with this, and Fishy's poor attempt at finding scum fails.

This doesn't smack of scum with spoon. Unnecessary defence just feels like a link scum wouldn't want to make. Minor towntell.

I didn't like his play on BB. This is less important given that BB was town.

I can't see Parama as scum.

Twistedspoon don't play like he usually does. I don't think that I have any scum meta on him though.

Suspects twisted here, in a half-hearted kind of way. Doing this and then not bussing later in the day would seem odd as scum.

Oh well. My gut tells me that Parama is town, but this will be one of the rare times when I use my brain instead of gut. We really need a flip too, a town/scumflip on Twisted or Parama would divide the Town into two camps.

UNVOTE: Lurconis
VOTE: Parama

Would he say this as scum, knowing he'll be in the wrong camp? I doubt it.

I think Johhog is town.

Peregrine

Didn't do much that stands out day 1. Opposed spoon's wagon on day 2, asking for cases. Which was very reasonable, because there hadn't been any when he asked. He eventually Fossed spoon, and declared intent to vote - mainly based on spoon's role. This fits fine with scum or town for me. As scum, at that point he could easily have decided that spoon was dead.

Chair

Chair on twisted looks like town. He repeatedly says he doesn't know why he thinks twisted is scum, but he does. That really doesn't feel like bussing to me. He never slacks off the spoon wagon, and looks pretty good.

Zang

On Day 1:

one more day.

BBmolla

- 4

( Parama Johhog kanyeknowsbest Lurconis )

Chair

- 3

( Haylen PeregrineV fishythefish )

kanyeknowsbest

- 1

( Zang )

Zang

- 1

( twistedspoon )

twistedspoon

- 3

( Chair Sathoris BBmolla )

Sathoris

- 1

( RedPanda )

NOT VOTING:

( )

With 13 alive, it takes 7 to lynch.
Deadline is

WED, SEPTEMBER 14th

, 8am MY TIME.. . Or whenever I get around to it.

After this, myself, Zang and spoon voted BB, in that order. Which would definitely have made sense for scumZang (or me, but I'm town). Zang's reasoning:

Unvote
Vote: BBmolla

Although I think he is town, his lynch will give us the most information and might possibly confirm Parama's alignment.

Feels like a bit of a stretch to say BB's lynch would confirm Para's alignment. Possibly scum trying to make his vote look better.

On Day 2 he goes after Para immediately, but doesn't explain why and unvotes saying Para is no more likely scum than anyone else. Why the vote, Zang? Interestingly, between the vote and unvote twisted moved onto Para and lots of people moved onto twisted - making the votecount look like this:

twistedspoon

- 4

( Parama kanyeknowsbest Lurconis Chair )

Parama

- 2

( Zang twistedspoon )

NOT VOTING:

( Johhog twistedspoon Haylen PeregrineV fishythefish RedPanda )

With 11 alive, it takes 6 to lynch.
Deadline is

THURS, SEPTEMBER 29th

, 8pm MY TIME.. . Or whenever I get around to it.

I can easily see scumZang being worried about this link to twisted. He then moves onto Haylen, but saying that "Chair's case on twisted looks pretty good". Votes twisted to L-1, and stays on there through subsequent claiming and vote movement. Can see it as scum who decided to vote spoon when the latter was in trouble, then went all out rather than back out.

He's still hanging onto his town points from post 31, where he displayed (or, just possibly, faked) a misunderstanding of the scum role PM.

spoon

I can't find anything that interesting in spoon's play.

So, I'm putting the two scum in Haylen, Peregrine and Zang. Largely by PoE - these are the people whose interactions with spoon I find most likely to come from scum. I think I'll
VOTE: Haylen

[Fishythefish]

Meh... I think spoon's flip explains the N1 kill to my satisfaction.

[Fishythefish]

1. Yes, you are more likely scum for doing the same thing I did as town. It was a time when scum would have wanted to vote BB. If I wasn't me, I'd give myself scumpoints for the same reason.
2. Actually wait, if BB had flipped scum Para

would

have been confirmed. I totally withdraw that (to answer your other part, I think scum often get worried about casting their late day votes, and are more likely than town to invent bad reasons to back up votes which are really just "someone has to die").
3. Why did Para claiming the action change your mind? It seems a rather unnecessary vote if it was just a way of saying "claim your action". Particularly as you didn't even tell him that was what it was about.
4. You misunderstand. I think that you were worried about voting

with

twisted on a bandwagon noone else was on, when there was a big wagon on twisted.
There's nothing there you couldn't have done as town, and I'm not saying I'm sure you're scum. But a lot of people are looking pretty good to me in this game, so you go on the scumlist by PoE.

Who do you think is scum atm?

[Fishythefish]

@RP: you ask a question, how about you answer it? How would spoon-scum choose somebody to point at? You don't give any reason he'd point at a buddy.

@Zang:
1. Nothing wrong with hypocrisy. Sometimes, despite being town, I perform actions that benefit the scum. If I see someone else performing those same actions, that's scummy.
2. Yes, I've withdrawn this point as wrong.
3. Meh. Parama was always going to be a flavour cop, so I doubt that changed your read on him much. You could have just been voting him until he claimed, but then I'd be surprised you didn't say that when you voted him.

@Johhog: Lots of people have rather long townlists. Haylen isn't on any of them. Her alignment isn't going to become any clearer. May as well lynch her.

[Fishythefish]

Because kanye suspected you, and promised to come after you again. Peregrine was his other suspect.

Fascinating claim. Unlikely we've got a SK - we've seen 1 kill a night, and few powers that can stop kills. Psychiatrist but no SK subverts expectations, but so does two of the same role for town. If it's a scum claim, it's a very clever one.

UNVOTE:

while I think.

On lurc's claim: it's the manner of the claim that makes him town.
On Para's: again, it's the manner of the claim, plus his play on spoon. I can't see scum making either of these claims in the positions they were in.

[Fishythefish]

This is prod avoidance - I might not have time to make a real post this weekend.

[Fishythefish]

So, my first reaction to Haylen's claim was that it's an odd scum claim; SK here is unlikely, and scum would know that.

But in a game like this, strange combinations like pyschiatrist without a SK ring true. It would be a fairly sensible scum claim; and since Parama was threatening to hammer Haylen no matter what, and off the wall claim makes sense.

Lurc makes a good point about Johhog. The claim changing from "easy scum fakeclaim" to "very town" is odd.

@Johhog: what changed your mind about twisted's claim between 531 and 575?

[Fishythefish]

I'm OK with Johhog.

VOTE: Haylen

@RedPanda: you say that twisted would have chosen a buddy to claim at so as to confirm his claim. But I

didn't

confirm his claim. What's more, scum never would - it would mean that once one of them flipped, the other would be dead. There's no reason for twisted to choose a buddy there (or, indeed, to not choose a buddy). It's pure WIFOM. You're totally right that

if I was scum

then I wouldn't have wanted to take the risk of confirming his claim. But because there's no reason he wouldn't choose a townie, that just isn't evidence for me being scum.

[Fishythefish]

This is me promising to post something else soon in the hope that it'll motivate me to post something else soon.

[Fishythefish]

I think guessing scum from temperaments is outguessing the mod in it's purest form, and isn't likely to help.

Johhog's end of day vote is odd. But I can't see the scum motivation in it, and I don't think scum would say "a Para/spoon flip would divide the town into two camps" if they know one is town and one is scum and their voting for the townie. I can more easily imagine Johhog getting in a tangle and persuading himself to go against his gut than him playing as he did as scum.

[Fishythefish]

I want to talk you out of this case. It's really, really bad in a way I should be able to explain, and it could be disastrous later in the game.

OK, so imagine you are scum planning for spoon to claim inventor. Your options:
1) You point to your buddy, he confirms.
2) You point to your buddy, he denies it.
3) You point to a townie, and they deny it.
Now, first of all 1) clearly isn't what happened - I didn't confirm the claim. But it could have been unplanned, the scum don't have daytalk and perhaps they didn't bother thinking about it at night. But 1) is crazy

anyway

. Because it ties the scumteam together completely - if one gets lynched the other will be confirmed scum. And since it wouldn't even mean I was "confirmed" town, that would be a total disaster. No scum in my position would ever confirm the claim. And no scum in spoon's position would have thought this was a realistic plan - or even wanted it to happen.

That leaves us with 2) and 3). Either way, spoon gets lynched. The only difference is in a player he points to. So he can point to whoever he likes! That means that if he thinks it makes someone look like town, he can point at scum, and vice versa. That means the only sensible thing to do is to treat it as a nulltell.