Mafia 48: Himalayan Mafia - Game over!

[Twomz]

Flay: Usually scum will go after power roles or confirmed townies (unless there's a doc, in which case they'll go for 2nd tier targets to prevent being blocked). Since there is no doc (or powerroles) in this game, the main targets should be either the confirmed players, or players who are hitting a little too close to home (or hitting far away to premote WIFOM lynches).

My guess is that at least one of the scum is considered confirmed (and the other is most likely Cesspit) and is trying to make it look like a Newb mafia in order to draw suspicion away from himself. Also, they wouldn't be able to target "confirmed" players (or players viewed as less likely to be scum) in case it gets to the endgame, and the town notices that there's just one remaining scum, and suddenly the less suspicious players have stopped being NKed.


OK, now for a tally of the lynches.

Day 1, Tidus:

He gave up, so we can't get that much of a read off the list.

I went back and added the rest.


tidus_of_zanarkand- 11 (

HezLucky

,

Mastermind of Sin

, creampuffeater,

DrippingGoofball

,

kirbyphreak

, Twomz, LoudMouthLee,

tidus_of_zanarkand

, Yosarian2,

neongrey

, Fuldu) + Mr.Flay
Mastermind Of Sin- 2 (Fritzler, Mr. Flay)
TheCesspit- 2 (TSAGod, Dead Rikimaru)
RandomActs- 1 (Thoth)
Fuldu- 1 (broomhead)

Not voting (3 4): JamesSparrow, Mini Neo, RandomActs, TheCesspit


Day 2, DG: Here's the full count

DrippingGoofball- 6 (LoudMouthLee, Fritzler,

Mastermind of Sin

, Yosarian2,

PookyTheMagicalBear

, Twomz)
LoudMouthLee- 5 (Lloyd, TSAGod, Fuldu,

DrippingGoofball

,

RandomActs

)
PookyTheMagicalBear- 3 (Dead Rikimaru,

kirbyphreak

, Mr. Flay)
Fritzler- 2 (TheCesspit,

neongrey

)

Not voting (3): broomhead, creampuffeater, JamesSparrow


Day 3, RA: again full count

RandomActs- 9 (

PookyTheMagicalBear

, Fuldu,

neongrey

, Yosarian2, TheCesspit, Twomz, Fritzler, LoudMouthLee, broomhead)
LoudMouthLee- 1 (Lloyd)
Twomz- 1 (

RandomActs

)

Not voting (8 ): creampuffeater, Dead Rikimaru, JamesSparrow, Mastermind of Sin, Mr. Flay, TSAGod


Day 4, NG: Full count

neongrey- 8 (Thesp, Yosarian2, creampuffeater, TheCesspit, Twomz, LoudMouthLee, Fritzler, broomhead)
Mr. Flay- 2 (

PookyTheMagicalBear

, Fuldu)
Fritzler- 2 (Mr. Flay, JamesSparrow)
TheCesspit- 2 (Dead Rikimaru, broomhead)
LoudMouthLee- 1 (Lloyd)

Not voting (1): creampuffeater


Alive

broomhead
creampuffeater
Dead Rikimaru
Fritzler
Fuldu
JamesSparrow (Replacing Hallisy)
MrBuddyLee (Replacing LoudMouthLee)
Mr. Flay
TheCesspit
Lloyd (Replacing Thoth)
Thesp (Replacing TSAGod)
Twomz
Yosarian2

Dead

tidus_of_zanarkand (Mafia) - lynched Day 1

HezLucky (Townie) - killed Night 1

DrippingGoofball (Mafia) - lynched Day 2

kirbyphreak (Replacing logicticus) (Townie) - killed Night 2

RandomActs (Townie) - lynched Day 3

Mastermind Of Sin (Townie) - killed Night 3

neongrey (Townie) - lynched Day 4

PookyTheMagicalBear (Replacing Mini Neo) (Townie) - killed Night 5

Red=Mafia, Blue=Town

Conclusions: Me, LML, and Yos2 have been on all the lynch wagons. Cesspit and broomhead have been on both town lynches but niether mafia lynches.

List of people on both RA's and NG's wagon:
Me (Twomz)
Yos2
Cesspit
Fritz
LML
Broomhead

... 3 have been on all wagons, 2 have been on just town wagons, and Fritz pushed for DG's lynch. So, the 2 player's w/ the worst voting record in the game are Cesspit (The person I think is most likely to be scum) and Broomhead.

[Lloyd]

Twmoz,

I concur with your analysis of TheCesspit and broomhead's voting patterns.

I ran a similar analysis earlier, but you beat me to posting it.

[Twomz]

HA! I win , what's my prize?

[Fuldu]

Thanks for posting all that vote count stuff, Twomz. It clarified something for me that I'd missed (as a result of the mistake in it, but that's not your fault).

Think about the argument you're making against Cesspit, Twomz. Now look at some of creampuffeater's posts.

Vote: DG

people that disagree with fritz day 1= great random/ begginging vote. Huggle fritz already a gg bg list? I think its early... but ok

Wow this game has gotten much wierder....

Unvote DG, Fos: Tidus

and TheCesspit I think that TheCesspit is scummier, because I just dont understant where he is going with that pressure vote thingy, pressure votes always seem to work when I see them. Also the whole we are voting him for why he voted MoS seems like he tried to direct attention to MoS not himself. Tidus isnt much better, but I do not find him as scummy as TheCesspit. I will refrain voting for now uuntill I can better understand this crazy situation we are in.

hmmm I agree with Thecesspit, and agree that with no follow up

pooky

does look suspicious, and I also dont really find

DGB

all that suspicious... cause she is always like that and if you find it scummy then pretty much everything she does is scummy. I really dont know who is scum atm, but I think Fritz is just not bieng his nornal self (which does catch scum) so vote stands on fritz

Caught scum show up in most of the comparative posts as the less suspicious individual, but often in such a way as to be justifiable later on. Also, a random vote on DGB at the beginning that doesn't threaten her but creates some amouont of voting pattern.

The only contrast to this is that creampuff was on the tidus lynch before he outed himself, and that deserves some slack. But what I find odd is that, instead of being emboldened by a successful lynch, creampuff seems to have backed off substantially since then, as if it wasn't quite the outcome he was hoping for.

vote: creampuffeater

[TheCesspit]

From post 649:

As stated previosuly, I can see exactly why a vote on me is warranted, so I'm kinda of in agreement that either TheCesspit or Neongrey is the right vote today, because the reasons are about the same.

...

Vote: Neongrey

TheCesspit,

In a game with vanilla townies, how can your comment above help find scum?

Unless you were being sarcastic, it makes you seem scummy.

Vote: TheCesspit

Because seeing who bites would possibly help. I was happy to be lynched if those remaining townies could use the lynching to help identified the last two scum.

I'll repeat what I keep saying: My play has been bad, I can understand being lynched based on it, but I am not Scum.

Personally, I'm a little more suspicious of Mr Flay tody.

hmm, my number two suspect wants to vote for my number 1 suspect

Oddly my number two suspect also agrees with my number one suspect.

Vote: Mr Flay

[Yosarian2]

[*]Yosarian2 - relatively good logic/play but some inconsistencies. I'd really like to see that "list of people who like to pretend (he) said something completly different from what (he) actually said.

That comment of mine was just sort of a general statement of annoyance that MOS was getting all offended at me for something I didn't even say; I didn't really mean anything more then that by it.

[Fritzler]

[*]Yosarian2 - relatively good logic/play but some inconsistencies. I'd really like to see that "list of people who like to pretend (he) said something completly different from what (he) actually said.

That comment of mine was just sort of a general statement of annoyance that MOS was getting all offended at me for something I didn't even say; I didn't really mean anything more then that by it.

you didn't throw a shrug in there...

[Twomz]

Can we get a mod prod on Broomhead, Creampuffeater, Dead Rikimaru, JamesSparrow, and Thesp?

[creampuffeater]

Ok, now I know that yes I don't have the very best voting record, but I am not scum. Most of your points are coming from the DGB lynch. I did not really support that lynch, because I did not find her scummy, but just having a crazy play style. I am glad we lynched her though cause she was scum. I really dont see how not voting for people that you think are scum is all that scummy. (Oh and Twomz there is a problem with ur list, on day 4 it says that I am voting for Neongray, and not voting as well)

[Twomz]

I suppose you're just that scummy creampuff... let me double check the mods list.

Sorry about that; didn't get a chance to get on yesterday. LML will need to be replaced.

End of Day Vote Count:

neongrey- 8 (Thesp, Yosarian2, creampuffeater, TheCesspit, Twomz, LoudMouthLee, Fritzler, broomhead)
Mr. Flay- 2 (PookyTheMagicalBear, Fuldu)
Fritzler- 2 (Mr. Flay, JamesSparrow)
TheCesspit- 2 (Dead Rikimaru, broomhead)
LoudMouthLee- 1 (Lloyd)

Not voting (1): creampuffeater

8 to lynch, 4 at deadline.

Day 4:

Despite the seeming ambiguity of motive implied by the "grey" part, neongrey turns out to be innocent. How sad.

neongrey (Townie) - lynched Day 4.

It is now Night 5, send choice ASAP.

In light of the fact that the deadline according to the rules would be just the weekend, I'll give the scum a little more time.

It seems you were doing both.

[Norinel]

Vote Count:

TheCesspit- 3 (Yosarian2, Lloyd, Twomz)
Creampuffeater- 1 (Fuldu)
Mr. Flay- 1 (TheCesspit)

Not voting- Everyone else

7 to lynch.

[Fuldu]

Yes, Twomz, that was the mistake I was referencing. Checking the actual post record indicates that creampuffeater was voting and the "not voting" bit in Norinel's count was mistaken. Given the context of this particular game, we know it isn't possible that creampuffeater was doing both.

[Twomz]

True true... now if only we can get the nonparticipating players to participate... then we could get something going.

[JamesSparrow]

holy crap twomz, good post there on 750. that really put things into perspective well.

vote cesspit

[Mr. Flay]

[*]Yosarian2 - relatively good logic/play but some inconsistencies. I'd really like to see that "list of people who like to pretend (he) said something completly different from what (he) actually said.

That comment of mine was just sort of a general statement of annoyance that MOS was getting all offended at me for something I didn't even say; I didn't really mean anything more then that by it.

Damn, I live for that sort of game analysis (when I have time to do it, anyway).

creampuffeater's actual vote was on neongrey at the end of D4, whatever Norinel's error was. He should know damn well that this was the case, and trying to throw off Twomz' analysis is just scumtastic. I concur with Fuldu:

Vote: creampuffeater

[Twomz]

MKay...

Most likely to be scum
Cesspit
Creampuffeater
Broomhead

BUT... I don't think of the scum lynched, nor any of the above list would have been the recruit target and the strange train of logic my mind takes points me towards an "experienced" or "more confirmed" player as the last mafioso. My suggestion is that we lynch from top to bottom of the above list. I'm certain we'll hit a mafioso... but in accordance w/ the safety of the town, let's assume that they're all really unlucky townies.

6 town would die (3 lynches, 3 NKs) leaving us w/ 5 townies vs. 2 mafiosos. If we can't figure out who the mafia are after that from JUST the voting records... then... well, the town must be solid lurkers and newbs or something, geez.

The likelyhood that both scum are on that list isn't very high though... and I'm certain we'll have to look elsewhere for the last one.

And one last nod to the lurkers... YOU ALL SUCK... but you're probably town . Losers.

[Dead Rikimaru]

Also, your post 536 was the "reason" for TheCessPit to unvote DGB 6 posts later. This unvoting would have saved DGB, if Fritzler didn't convince Pooky to vote her in post 527.
This interaction between the two of you even puts you higher in my scum list.

This statement contains two problems.

1) Post 536 did not give me the reason to unvote DGB. 542 did it was directly from Fritzler's quote. Are you really claiming that Mr Flay's comments were such that

2) Your claiming my unvote would have saved DGB is also untrue. I placed the tying vote on DGB. To do that as scum is madness as the next vote (Pooky as it turns out) condemns DGB to the lead even I later unvote like I did.

Would I have unvoted if it had been closer? I have no idea, and nor do you. You can't guess what would have happened if history had been different. Or you can, but I don't think it's useful at all.

1) So, your vote was not influenced by Mr. Flay's analyzis, but you got to the same conclusion as he did (that Fritzler's vote count was an attempt to misguide the town).
Since then (for the rest of that Day and for the two following Days) you (along with Mr. Flay) have been trying to lynch Fritzler based on that conclusion (ignoring the fact that DGB was actually scum) and now .....

YOU VOTE MR. FLAY!

It's interesting how you claim that your conclusion was not influenced by Mr. Flay's and still vote him for having the same opinion as you and doing the same thing as you in the last days. Looks like a desperate distancing tactic to me.

2) You keep saying was your vote was important to DGB's lynch. Not true. DGB needed a

majority

to be lynched (if the number of votes were the same LML would have been lynched instead). The only votes that were important were the ones that were on her

by the end of the deadline

.
Votes that were removed before the deadline helped nothing in her lynch.
And if Pooky had not voted or if one of those voting her followed you and Mr. Flay LML would have been lynched.

vote: TheCesspit

[Twomz]

Go Go Simupost!

[JamesSparrow]

BUT... I don't think of the scum lynched, nor any of the above list would have been the recruit target and the strange train of logic my mind takes points me towards an "experienced" or "more confirmed" player as the last mafioso.

well seeing as you think it's probably a 'more expeienced' player, maybe that's why they haven't shown up as conforming to any sort of scummy pattern. nevertheless, i think that your list of people seems to have a solid basis to it and i think it should be followed until otherwise noted.

[broomhead]

i'd just like to pop in and say in my defense that the game had been going 2 days with one vote away from lynch, i was the only active player left, not voting who didn't feel strongly against killing him. i don' like games to linger, so i stopped the lingering.

[JamesSparrow]

i forgot about that, i remember broomhead being the last person to cast a vote, and at the time i felt like he was just doing his civic duty to the town. not being scummy.

[creampuffeater]

[*]Yosarian2 - relatively good logic/play but some inconsistencies. I'd really like to see that "list of people who like to pretend (he) said something completly different from what (he) actually said.

That comment of mine was just sort of a general statement of annoyance that MOS was getting all offended at me for something I didn't even say; I didn't really mean anything more then that by it.

Damn, I live for that sort of game analysis (when I have time to do it, anyway).

creampuffeater's actual vote was on neongrey at the end of D4, whatever Norinel's error was. He should know damn well that this was the case, and trying to throw off Twomz' analysis is just scumtastic. I concur with Fuldu:

Vote: creampuffeater

I wasnt trying to throw his voting count off, I was just making a minor correction so I was not voting Neongray and not voting at the same time. That does not say that Twomz vote analysis was wrong, because the mod made the same mistake too.

[Lloyd]

MrBuddyLee (or should I also call you Lee #2),

Any additional thoughts since you last posted?

[Fritzler]

Vote: The CessPit

[Mr. Flay]

Helllooo....where are all the lurkers?